Search results for: macroeconomic

Authors: Bozena Leven

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The middle-income trap (MIT) describes a situation faced by countries at a relatively mature stage of development that often poses an obstacle to sustainable long-term growth. MIT is characterized by declining factor productivity from the exhaustion of labor intensive, import and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) based strategies when middle-income status is achieved. In this paper, we focus on MIT and Poland. In the past two decades, Poland experienced steady growth based largely on imported technologies and low-cost labor. Recently, that economic growth has slowed, prompting economists to ask whether Poland is experiencing MIT. To answer this question, we analyze changes in investment in Poland; specifically- its growth and composition – as well as savings, FDI, educational attainments of the labor force, development of new technologies and products, the role of imports, diversification of exports, and product complexity. We also examine the development of modern infrastructure, institutions (including legal environment) and demographic changes in Poland that support growth. Our findings indicate that certain factors consistent with MIT are gaining importance in Poland, and represent a challenge to that country’s future growth rate.

Keywords: engines of growth, factor productivity, middle income trap, sustainable development

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Authors: Paul Ojeaga

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Can the level of innovation use drive un-validated business models across regions? To what extent does industrial sector attractiveness drive firm’s success across regions at the time of start-up? This study examines the role of innovation on start-up success in six regions of the world (namely Sub Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America, South East Asia Pacific, the European Union and the United States representing North America) using macroeconomic variables. While there have been studies using firm level data, results from such studies are not suitable for national policy decisions. The need to drive a regional innovation policy also begs for an answer, therefore providing room for this study. Results using dynamic panel estimation show that innovation counts in the early infancy stage of new business life cycle. The results are robust even after controlling for time fixed effects and the study present variance-covariance estimation robust standard errors.

Keywords: industrial economics, un-validated business models, scalable models, entrepreneurship

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

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Authors: Parma Chakravartti

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The impact of government spending and taxation on economic growth has remained a central issue of fiscal policy analysis. There is a wide range of opinions over the strength of fiscal policy’s effect on macroeconomic variables. It can be argued that the impact of fiscal policy depends on the structure and economic condition of the economy. This study makes an attempt to examine the effect of fiscal policy shocks on growth in India using the structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), considering data from 1950 to 2019. The study finds that government spending is an important instrument of growth in India, where the share of revenue expenditure to capital expenditure plays a key role. The optimum composition of total expenditure is important for growth and it is not necessarily true that capital expenditure multiplier is more than revenue expenditure multiplier. The study also finds that the impact of public economic activities on private economic activities for both consumption expenditure and gross capital formation of government crowds in private consumption expenditure and private gross capital formation, respectively, thus indicating that government expenditure complements private expenditure in India.

Keywords: government spending, fiscal policy, multiplier, growth

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Authors: Safa’ Abdelkarim Hammad

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The electrical power system is one of the main parts of the nation's infrastructure, and the availability and cost of electricity are critical factors in industrial competitiveness and strategy. Restructuring of the electricity supply industries is a very complex exercise based on national energy strategies and policies, macroeconomic developments, and national conditions, and its application varies from country to country. Electricity regulation of natural monopolies is a challenging task. Regulators face the problem of providing appropriate incentives for improvement of efficiency. Incentive regulation is often considered as an efficient regulatory tool to handle the problem, and it is widely applied in several countries. However, the exact regulation methodologies differ from one country to another. Network quantitative reliability evaluation is an essential factor with regard to the quality of supply. The main factors used to judge the reliability of supply is measured by the number and duration of interruptions experienced by customers. Several indicators are used to evaluate reliability in distribution networks. This paper addresses the impact of incentive regulation and performance benchmarking in the field of electricity distribution in Jordan. The theory of efficiency measurement and the most common models; NCSQS and DEA models are presented.

Keywords: incentive regulations, reliability, restructuring, Tarrif

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Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

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In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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Authors: Ezeoke Callistus Obiora, Ezeoke Nneka Angela

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The study investigated the effect of deficit financing on macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The specific objectives included to find out the relationship between deficit financing and GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, money supply, exchange rate and private investment respectively on a time series covering a period of 44 years (1970 – 2013). The Ordinary Least Square multiple regression produced statistics for the coefficient of determination (R2), F-test, t-test used for the interpretation of the study. The findings revealed that Deficit financing has significant positive effect on GDP and exchange rate. Again, deficit financing has a positive and insignificant relationship inflation, money supply and investment. Only interest rate recorded negative yet insignificant relationship with deficit financing. The implications of the findings are that deficit financing can be a veritable tool for boosting economic development in Nigeria, but the influential positively rising exchange rate implies that deficit financing devalues the Naira exchange rate to other currencies indicating that deficit financing can affect Nigerians competitive advantage at the world market. Thus, the study concludes that deficit financing has not encouraged economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords: deficit financing, money supply, exchange rate, inflation, GDP, investment, Nigeria

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Authors: L. L. Ivy-Yap, H. A. Bekhet

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As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 periods. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential sector, a sector that is important for the contemplation of energy policy. The Phillips-Perron (P-P) unit root test is employed to infer the stationary of each variable while the bound test is executed to determine the existence of co-integration relationship among the variables, modeled in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests are applied to ensure the stability of the model. The results suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bidirectional Granger causality between EC and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical findings will help policy makers of Malaysia in developing new monitoring standards of energy consumption. As it is the major contributing factor in economic growth and CO2 emission, there is a need for more proper planning in Malaysia to attain future targets in order to cut emissions.

Keywords: co-integration, elasticity, granger causality, Malaysia, residential electricity consumption

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Authors: Ahmed Sameer El Khatib

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The aim of the present paper is to examine the revenue efficiency of the Indonesian Islamic banking sector. The study also seeks to investigate the potential internal (bank specific) and external (macroeconomic) determinants that influence the revenue efficiency of Indonesian domestic Islamic banks. We employ the whole gamut of domestic and foreign Islamic banks operating in the Indonesian Islamic banking sector during the period of 2009 to 2018. The level of revenue efficiency is computed by using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. Furthermore, we employ a panel regression analysis framework based on the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to examine the potential determinants of revenue efficiency. The results indicate that the level of revenue efficiency of Indonesian domestic Islamic banks is lower compared to their foreign Islamic bank counterparts. We find that bank market power, liquidity, and management quality significantly influence the improvement in revenue efficiency of the Indonesian domestic Islamic banks during the period under study. By calculating these efficiency concepts, we can observe the efficiency levels of the domestic and foreign Islamic banks. In addition, by comparing both cost and profit efficiency, we can identify the influence of the revenue efficiency on the banks’ profitability.

Keywords: Islamic Finance, Islamic Banks, Revenue Efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis

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Authors: Behnam Habibi Dargah

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The economics of cost-benefit theory seeks to monitor claims and determine their final price. The cost of litigation is important because it is a measure of the efficiency of the justice system. From an economic point of view, the cost of litigation is considered to be the point of equilibrium of litigation, whereby litigation is regarded as a high-risk investment and is initiated when the costs are less than the probable and expected benefits. Costs are economically separated into private and social costs. Private cost includes material (direct and indirect) and spiritual costs. The social costs of litigation are also subsidized-centric due to the public and governmental nature of litigation and cover both types of bureaucratic bureaucracy and the costs of judicial misconduct. Macroeconomic policy in the economics of justice is the reverse engineering of controlling the social costs of litigation by employing selective litigation and working on the judicial culture to achieve rationality in the monopoly system. Procedures for controlling and managing court costs are also circumscribed to economic patterns in the field. Rational cost allocation model and cost transfer model. The rational allocation model deals with cost-tolerance systems, and the transfer model also considers three models of transferability, including legal, judicial and contractual transferability, which will be described and explored in the present article in a comparative manner.

Keywords: cost of litigation, economics of litigation, private cost, social cost, cost of litigation

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Authors: Neeraj Gupta, Jitendra Mahakud

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The banking system plays a major role in the Indian economy. Banking system is the payment gateway of most of the financial transactions. Banking has gone a major transition that is still in progress. Recent banking reforms after liberalization in 1991 have led to the establishment of the foreign banks in the country. The foreign banks are not listed in the Indian stock markets and have increased the competition leading to the capture of the significant share in the revenue from the public sector banks which are still the major players in the Indian banking sector. The performance of the banking sector depends on the internal (bank specific) as well as the external (market specific and macroeconomic) factors. Profitability in banking sector is affected by numerous factors which can be internal or external. The present study examines these internal and external factors which are likely to effect the profitablilty of the Indian banks. The sample consists of a panel dataset of 64 commercial banks in India, consisting of 1088 observations over the years from 1998 to 2016. The GMM dynamic panel estimation given by Arellano and Bond has been used. The study revealed that the variables capital adequacy ratio, deposit, age, labour productivity, non-performing asset, inflation and concentration have significant effect on performance measured.

Keywords: banks in India, bank performance, bank productivity, banking management

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Authors: Aime Philombe Zapji Ymele

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Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden. In the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth, and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation, and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states.

Keywords: interest charges, sustainability, public debt, interest rates

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Authors: Zapji Ymele Aime Philombe

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Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden in the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states.

Keywords: interests charges, public debt, sustainability, interest rates

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Authors: Edson Vengesai

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Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

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Authors: Medhin Haftom Hailu

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The advancement of information technology has significantly impacted Ethiopia's economy, driving innovation, productivity, job creation, and global connectivity. This research examined the impact of contemporary information and communication technologies on Ethiopian economic progress. The study examined eight variables, including mobile, internet, and fixed-line penetration rates, and five macroeconomic control variables. The results showed a positive and strong effect of ICT on economic growth in Ethiopia, with 1% increase in mobile, internet, and fixed line services penetration indexes resulting in an 8.03, 10.05, and 30.06% increase in real GDP. The Granger causality test showed that all ICT variables Granger caused economic growth, but economic growth Granger caused mobile penetration rate only. The study suggests that coordinated ICT infrastructure development, increased telecom service accessibility, and increased competition in the telecom market are crucial for Ethiopia's economic growth. Ethiopia is attempting to establish a digital economy through massive investment in ensuring ICT quality and accessibility. Thus, the research could enhance in understanding of the economic impact of ICT expansion for successful ICT policy interventions for future research.

Keywords: economic growth, cointegration and error correction, ICT expansion, granger causality, penetration

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Authors: Rakiya Abba

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This paper investigates the effect of the money supply, exchange and interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria through the application of Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique in testing the unit root property of the series and Granger causality test of causation between GDP, money supply, the exchange, and interest rate. The results of unit root suggest that all the variables in the model are stationary at 1, 5 and 10 percent level of significance, and the results of Causality suggest that money supply and exchange granger cause IR, the result further reveals two – way causation existed between M2 and EXR while IR granger cause GDP the null hypothesis is rejected and GDP does not granger cause IR as indicated by their probability values of 0.4805 and confirmed by F-statistics values of 0.75483. The results revealed that M2 and EXR do not granger causes GDP, the null hypothesis is accepted at 75percent 18percent respectively as indicated by their probability values of 0.7472 and 0.1830 respectively; also, GDP does not granger cause M2 and EXR. The Johansen cointegration result indicates that despite GDP does not granger cause M2, IR, and EXR, but there existed 1 cointegrating equation, implying the existence of long-run relationship between GDP, M2 IR, and EXR. A major policy implication of this result is that economic growth is function of and money supply and exchange rate, effective monetary policies should direct on manipulating instruments and importance should be placed on justification for adopting a particular policy be rationalized in order to increase growth in economy

Keywords: economic growth, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, causality

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Ilias A. Makris

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In this work, we attempt to associate firm characteristics with innovative activity. We collect microdata from listed firms of selected Eurozone Country-members, after the beginning of 2007 financial crisis. The following literature, several indicators of growth and performance were selected and tested for their ability to interpret innovative activity. The main scope is to examine the possible differences in performance and growth between innovative and non-innovative firms, during a severe recession. Additionally to that, a special focus will be held on whether macroeconomic performance and national innovation system, determines the extent of innovators' performance. Preliminary findings, through correlation matrices and non-parametric tests, strongly indicate the positive relation between innovative activity and most of the measures used (profitability, size, employment), confirming that even during a recessionary period, innovative firms not only survive but also seem to succeed better economic results in almost all indexes relative to non-innovative. However, even though innovators seem to perform better in all economies examined, the extent of that performance seems to be strongly affected by the supportive mechanisms (financial and structural) that their country provides. Thus, it is clear, that the technologically intensive 'gap' between European South and North, during the economic crisis, became chaotic, due to the harsh austerity measures and reduced budgets in those countries, even in sectors with high potentials in economic activity and employment, impairing the effects of crisis and enhancing the vicious circle of recession.

Keywords: eurozone, innovative activity, development, firm performance, non-parametric tests

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Authors: Mustapha Achibane, Imane Allam

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Since the nineties, all Moroccan banking institutions have to respect an arsenal of prudential ratios. The respect of these prudential measures aims to ensure the financial system stability. In order to do so, regulatory authorities tried to reduce the financial and operational risks incurred by the banking entities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities demanded a balance sheet management work from banks. They also asked them to establish a management control system to manage operational risk, as well as an effort in terms of incurred risk-based commitments. Therefore, the prudential approach has a macroeconomic nature and it is presented as a determinant of the operational, microeconomic approach. This operational approach takes the form of a strategy that each banking entity must develop to manage the different banking risks. This study seeks to analyze the problem of risk management between the prudential and the operational approaches. It was processed through a literature review followed by an analysis of the Moroccan banking sector’s performance. At first, we will reconcile the inductive logic and then, the analytical one. The first approach consists of analyzing the phenomenon from a normative and conceptual perspective, while the second one will consist of considering the Moroccan banking system and analyzing the behavior of Moroccan banking entities in terms of risk management and performance. The results identified a favorable growth in terms of performance, despite the huge provisioning effort made to meet the international standards and the harmonization of the regulations.

Keywords: banking performance, financial intermediation, operational approach, prudential standards, risk management

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Authors: Priyal Motwani, Garvit Goel

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In this study, we have studied and analysed the transaction data of investors of a mutual fund investment company based in India. Based on the data available, we have identified the top four biases that affect the investors of the emerging market economies through regression analysis and three uniquely defined ratios. We found that the four most prominent biases that affected the investment making decisions in India are– Chauffer Knowledge, investors tend to make ambitious decisions about sectors they know little about; Bandwagon effect – the response of the market indices to macroeconomic events are more profound and seem to last longer compared to western markets; base-rate neglect – judgement about stocks are too much based on the most recent development ignoring the long-term fundamentals of the stock; availability bias – lack of proper communication channels of market information lead people to be too reliant on limited information they already have. After segregating the investors into six groups, the results have further been studied to identify a correlation among the demographics, gender and unique cultural identity of the derived groups and the corresponding prevalent biases. On the basis of the results obtained from the derived groups, our study recommends six methods, specific to each group, to educate the investors about the prevalent biases and their role in investment decision making.

Keywords: Bandwagon effect, behavioural biases, Chauffeur knowledge, demographics, investor literacy, mutual funds

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Authors: Muhammad Ajmair

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This empirical study followed structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach proposed by the so-called AB-model of Amisano and Giannini (1997) to check the impact of relevant macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Pakistan. Before that auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing technique and time varying parametric approach along with general to specific approach was employed to find out relevant significant determinants of economic growth. To our best knowledge, no author made such a study that employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing and time varying parametric approach with general to specific approach in empirical literature, but current study will bridge this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. The widely-used Schwarz information criterion and Akaike information criterion were considered for the lag length in each estimated equation. Main findings of the study are that remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation are found to be the best relevant positive and significant determinants of economic growth. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on overall economic growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector.

Keywords: economic growth, gross national expenditures, inflation, remittances

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Authors: M. Koray Cetin, Mehmet Mert

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The purpose of the study is to examine impacts on tourism revenues of the exchange rate and country overall security level. There are numerous studies that examine the bidirectional relation between macroeconomic factors and tourism revenues and tourism demand. Most of the studies support the existence of impact of tourism revenues on growth rate but not vice versa. Few studies examine the impact of factors like real exchange rate or purchasing power parity on the tourism revenues. In this context, firstly impact of real exchange rate on tourism revenues examination is aimed. Because exchange rate is one of the main determinants of international tourism services price in guests currency unit. Another determinant of tourism demand for a country is country’s overall security level. This issue can be handled in the context of the relationship between tourism revenues and overall security including turmoil, terrorism, border problem, political violence. In this study, factors are handled for several countries which have tourism revenues on a certain level. With this structure, it is a panel data, and it is evaluated with panel data analysis techniques. Panel data have at least two dimensions, and one of them is time dimensions. The panel data analysis techniques are applied to data gathered from Worldbank data web page. In this study, it is expected to find impacts of real exchange rate and security factors on tourism revenues for the countries that have noteworthy tourism revenues.

Keywords: exchange rate, panel data analysis, security, tourism revenues

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Disha Batra

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With the advent of economic reforms in India in 1992, economic journalism in India has undergone a sea change along with the rise in the Indian economy. Squeezing out of economic news stories (economy-in-general) over business (individual corporate stories) and financial (financial and equity markets) news stories have been done and are still underway. The objective of the study is to explore how economic journalism – news stories about macroeconomic issues or economy-in-general has changed over the past three decades with the emergence of LPG (Liberalisation, Privatisation, and Globalisation) policies in India. The purpose of the study is to examine to what extent business and financial news are constricting economic news which is done by analysing news stories and content of business papers. The study is based on the content analyses of the top three Indian business dailies as per IRS (Indian Readership Survey) 2017. The parametric analysis of the different parameters (source of information, sub-topic, a dominant source in economic news, layout and framing, etc.) has been done in order to come across with the distinct adaptations and modifications by these dailies. The paper significantly dwells upon the thematic analysis of these newspapers in order to explore and find out the coverage given to various sub-themes of EBF (economic, business, and financial) journalism. The study revealed that stories concerning broader issues about the economy which are likely to be of public concern had been dropped. The paper further indicates an upward trend for the stories concerning individual corporate, equity, and financial markets. Findings of the study raise concern over the indicated disparity between economic and business news stories which may further limit the information that people need in order to make well-versed decisions.

Keywords: business-papers, business news, economic news, financial news

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Authors: S. O. Okoro

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Some words become the catch phrase of a particular decade. Globalization, Openness, and Privatization are certainly among the most frequently encapsulation of 1990’s; the market is ‘in’, ‘the state is out’. In the 1970’s, there were many political economists who spoke of autarky as one possible response to global economic forces. Be self-contained, go it alone, put up barriers to trans-nationalities, put in place import-substitution industrialization policy and grow domestic industries. In 1990’s, the emasculation of the state is by no means complete, but there is an acceptance that the state’s power is circumscribed by forces beyond its control and potential leverage. Autarky is no longer as a policy option. Nigeria, since its emergence as an independent nation, has evolved two macroeconomic management regimes of the interventionist and market friendly styles. This paper investigates Nigeria’s growth performance over the periods incorporating these two regimes and finds that there is no structural break in Total Factor Productivity, (TFP) growth and besides, the TFP growth over the entire period of study 1970-2012 is very negligible and hence growth can only be achieved by the unsustainable factor accumulation. Another important finding of this work is that the openness-human capital interaction term has a significant impact on the TFP growth, but the sign of the estimated coefficient does not meet it a theoretical expectation. This is because the negative coefficient on the human capital outweighs the positive openness effect. The poor quality of human capital is considered to have given rise to this. Given these results a massive investment in the education sector is required. The investment should be targeted at reforms that go beyond mere structural reforms to a reform agenda that will improve the quality of human capital in Nigeria.

Keywords: globalization, emasculation, openness and privatization, total factor productivity

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Authors: Michal Friedrich

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Cross-border investment has never been easier than in today’s global economy. Despite recent initiatives tightening the international tax landscape, profit shifting and tax optimization by multinational entities (MNEs) in the context of cross-border M&A remain persistent and complex phenomena that warrant in-depth exploration. By synthesizing the outcomes of existing research, this study aims to first provide a methodological framework for identifying MNEs’ profit-shifting behavior and quantifying its fiscal impacts via various macroeconomic and microeconomic approaches. The study also proposes additional methods and qualitative/quantitative measures for extracting insight into the profit shifting behavior of MNEs in the context of their M&A activities at industry and entity levels. To develop the proposed methods, this study applies the knowledge of international tax laws and known profit shifting conduits (incl. dividends, interest, and royalties) on several model cases/types of cross-border acquisitions and post-acquisition integration activities by MNEs and highlights important factors that encourage or discourage tax optimization. Follow-up research is envisaged to apply the methods outlined in this study on published data on real-world M&A transactions to gain practical country-by-country, industry and entity-level insights. In conclusion, this study seeks to contribute to the ongoing discourse on profit shifting by providing a methodological toolkit for exploring profit shifting tendencies MNEs in connection with their M&A activities and to serve as a backbone for further research. The study is expected to provide valuable insight to policymakers, tax authorities, and tax professionals alike.

Keywords: BEPS, cross-border M&A, international taxation, profit shifting, tax optimization

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Authors: Arbolino Roberta, Boffardi Raffaele

Abstract:

Achieving the highest effectiveness for the National Plans for Recovery and Resilience (NPRR) while strengthening the objectives of cohesion and reduction of intra-EU unbalances is only possible by means of strategic, coordinated, and coherent policy planning. Therefore, the present research aims at assessing and quantifying the potential impact of NPRRs across the twenty-seven European Member States in terms of economic convergence, considering disaggregated data on industrial, construction, and service sectors. The first step of the research involves a performance analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators describing the trends of twenty-seven EU economies before the pandemic outbreak. Subsequently, in order to define the potential effect of the resources allocated, we perform an impact analysis of previous similar EU investment policies, estimating national-level sectoral elasticity associated with the expenditure of the 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 Cohesion programmes funds. These coefficients are then exploited to construct adjustment scenarios. Finally, convergence analysis is performed on the data used for constructing scenarios in order to understand whether the expenditure of funds might be useful to foster economic convergence besides driving recovery. The results of our analysis show that the allocation of resources largely mirrors the aims of the policy framework underlying the NPRR, thus reporting the largest investments in both those sectors most affected by the economic shock (services) and those considered fundamental for the digital and green transition. Notwithstanding an overall positive effect, large differences exist among European countries, while no convergence process seems to be activated or fostered by these interventions.

Keywords: NPRR, policy evaluation, cohesion policy, scenario Nalsysi

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Authors: Elza Jurun, Damir Piplica, Tea Poklepović

Abstract:

Numerous studies carried out in the developed western democratic countries have shown that the ideological framework of the governing party has a significant influence on the monetary policy. The executive authority consisting of a left-wing party gives a higher weight to unemployment suppression and central bank implements a more expansionary monetary policy. On the other hand, right-wing governing party considers the monetary stability to be more important than unemployment suppression and in such a political framework the main macroeconomic objective becomes the inflation rate reduction. The political framework conditions in the transition countries which are new European Union (EU) members are still highly specific in relation to the other EU member countries. In the focus of this paper is the question whether the same monetary policy principles are valid in these transitional countries as well as they apply in developed western democratic EU member countries. The data base consists of inflation rate and unemployment rate for 11 transitional EU member countries covering the period from 2001 to 2012. The essential information for each of these 11 countries and for each year of the observed period is right or left political orientation of the ruling party. In this paper we use t-statistics to test our hypothesis that there are differences in inflation and unemployment between right and left political orientation of the governing party. To explore the influence of different countries, through years and different political orientations descriptive statistics is used. Inflation and unemployment should be strongly negatively correlated through time, which is tested using Pearson correlation coefficient. Regarding the fact whether the governing authority is consisted from left or right politically oriented parties, monetary authorities will adjust its policy setting the higher priority on lower inflation or unemployment reduction.

Keywords: inflation rate, monetary policy orientation, transition EU countries, unemployment rate

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Authors: Manamba Epaphra

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model that includes control variables such as trade liberalization, life expectancy and macroeconomic stability proxied by inflation is used to estimate the impact of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012), and Le and Suruga (2005) are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on private domestic investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Generally, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment plays an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. FDI also tends to affect growth positively, while control variables such as high population growth and inflation appear to harm economic growth. Results also reveal that control variables such as trade openness and life expectancy improvement tend to increase real GDP growth. Moreover, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth reduces when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Thus, there is a great need for promoting domestic saving so as to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.

Keywords: FDI, public investment, domestic private investment, crowding out effect, economic growth

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Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

Abstract:

Motivation: The Nigerian economy has seen significant macroeconomic instability, fuelled mostly by an overreliance on fluctuating oil revenues. The rising disparity between tax receipts and government spending in Nigeria necessitates government borrowing to fund the anticipated pace of economic growth. Rising public debt and fiscal sustainability are limiting the government's ability to invest in key infrastructure that promotes private investment and growth in Nigeria. Objective: This paper fills an empirical research vacuum by examining the impact of public debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria, given the significance of fiscal stability in decreasing poverty and the constraints that an unsustainable debt burden imposes on it. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2022 exposed to conventional and structural breaks stationarity tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation approach were adopted for this study. Results: The results reveal that domestic debt stock, debt service payment, foreign reserve stock, exchange rate, and private investment all had a major adverse effect on fiscal stability in the long and short run, corroborating the debt overhang and crowding-out hypothesis. External debt stock, prime lending rate, and degree of trade openness, which boosted fiscal stability in the long run, had a major detrimental effect on fiscal stability in the short run, whereas foreign direct investment inflows had an important beneficial impact on fiscal stability in both the long and short run. Implications: The results indicate that fiscal measures that inspire domestic resource mobilization, sustainable debt management techniques, and dependence on external debt to boost deficit financing will improve fiscal stability and drive growth.

Keywords: ARDL co-integration, debt overhang, debt servicing, fiscal stability, public debt

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