Search results for: long term peak demand forecasting

Authors: M. A. Spielmann, L. Schebek

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In order to reach the long-term national climate goals of the German government for the building sector, substantial energetic measures have to be executed. Historically, those measures were primarily energetic efficiency measures at the buildings’ shells. Advanced technologies for the on-site generation of heat (or other types of energy) often are not feasible at this small spatial scale of a single building. Therefore, the present approach uses the spatially larger dimension of a quarter. The main focus of the present paper is the long-term economic-ecological assessment of available decentralized heat-generating (CHP power plants and electrical heat pumps) technologies at the quarter level for the German unrefurbished residential buildings. Three distinct terms have to be described methodologically: i) Quarter approach, ii) Economic assessment, iii) Ecological assessment. The quarter approach is used to enable synergies and scaling effects over a single-building. For the present study, generic quarters that are differentiated according to significant parameters concerning their heat demand are used. The core differentiation of those quarters is made by the construction time period of the buildings. The economic assessment as the second crucial parameter is executed with the following structure: Full costs are quantized for each technology combination and quarter. The investment costs are analyzed on an annual basis and are modeled with the acquisition of debt. Annuity loans are assumed. Consequently, for each generic quarter, an optimal technology combination for decentralized heat generation is provided in each year of the temporal boundaries (2016-2050). The ecological assessment elaborates for each technology combination and each quarter a Life Cycle assessment. The measured impact category hereby is GWP 100. The technology combinations for heat production can be therefore compared against each other concerning their long-term climatic impacts. Core results of the approach can be differentiated to an economic and ecological dimension. With an annual resolution, the investment and running costs of different energetic technology combinations are quantified. For each quarter an optimal technology combination for local heat supply and/or energetic refurbishment of the buildings within the quarter is provided. Coherently to the economic assessment, the climatic impacts of the technology combinations are quantized and compared against each other.

Keywords: building sector, economic-ecological assessment, heat, LCA, quarter level

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Authors: Tafadzwa Shumba, Rose C. Nyatondo, Regret Sunge

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This research analyses the impact of budget deficits on the economic performance of Zimbabwe. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) confines testing method to co-integration and long-run estimation using time series data from 1980-2018. The Augmented Dick Fuller (ADF) and the Granger approach were used to testing for stationarity and causality among the factors. Co-integration test results affirm a long term association between GDP development rate and descriptive factors. Causality test results show a unidirectional connection between budget shortfall to GDP development and bi-directional causality amid debt and budget deficit. This study also found unidirectional causality from debt to GDP growth rate. ARDL estimates indicate a significantly positive long term and significantly negative short term impact of budget shortfall on GDP. This suggests that budget deficits have a short-run growth retarding effect and a long-run growth-inducing effect. The long-run results follow the Keynesian theory that posits that fiscal deficits result in an increase in GDP growth. Short-run outcomes follow the neoclassical theory. In light of these findings, the government is recommended to minimize financing of recurrent expenditure using a budget deficit. To achieve sustainable growth and development, the government needs to spend an absorbable budget deficit focusing on capital projects such as the development of human capital and infrastructure.

Keywords: ARDL, budget deficit, economic performance, long run

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Authors: Woo-Tai Jung, Sung-Yong Choi, Young-Hwan Park

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The composite pavement system considered in this paper is composed of a functional surface layer, a fiber reinforced asphalt middle layer and a fiber reinforced lean concrete base layer. The mix design of the fiber reinforced lean concrete corresponds to the mix composition of conventional lean concrete but reinforced by fibers. The quasi-absence of research on the durability or long-term performances (fatigue, creep, etc.) of such mix design stresses the necessity to evaluate experimentally the long-term characteristics of this layer composition. This study tests the creep characteristics as one of the long-term characteristics of the fiber reinforced lean concrete layer for composite pavement using a new creep device. The test results reveal that the lean concrete mixed with fiber reinforcement and fly ash develops smaller creep than the conventional lean concrete. The results of the application of the CEB-FIP prediction equation indicate that a modified creep prediction equation should be developed to fit with the new mix design of the layer.

Keywords: creep, lean concrete, pavement, fiber reinforced concrete, base

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Authors: Olga C. Rodrigue

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Long-term care and skilled nursing facilities experience ebbs and flows of nursing staffing, a problem compounded by the perception of the facilities as undesirable workplaces and competition for staff from other healthcare entities. Travel nurses are contracted to fill staffing needs due to increased admissions, increased and unexpected attrition of nurses, or facility expansion of services. Prior to beginning the contracted assignment, the travel nurse must meet industry, company, and regulatory requirements (The Joint Commission and CMS) for skills and knowledge. Travel nurses, however, inconsistently receive the pre-assignment orientation needed to work at the contracted facility, if any information is given at all. When performance expectations are not met, travel nurses may subsequently choose to leave the position without completing the terms of the contract, and some facilities may choose to terminate the contract prior to the expected end date. The overarching goal of the Doctor of Nursing Practice evidence-based practice improvement project is to provide travel nurses with the basic and necessary information to prepare them to begin a long-term and skilled nursing assignment. The project involves the identification of travel nurse learning needs through a survey and the development and provision of web-based learning modules to address those needs prior to arrival for a long-term and skilled nursing assignment.

Keywords: nurse staffing, travel nurse, travel staff, contract staff, contracted assignment, long-term care, skilled nursing, onboarding, orientation, staff development, supplemental staff

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Authors: N. Uaphongsathorn, C. Worawong, S. Thaewpia

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Background and significance: The population is aging in Thai society, the elderly dependent is at great risk of various functional, psychological, and socio-economic problems as well as less access to health care. They may require long term care at home to maximize their functional abilities and activities of daily living and to improve their quality of life during their own age. Therefore, there is a need to develop a home-based long term care to meet the long term care needs of elders dependent. Methods: The research purpose was to develop long term care model among the elderly dependent in Chaiyaphum province in Northeast region of Thailand. Action Research which is composing of planning, action, observation, and reflection phases was used. Research was carried out for 12 months in all sub-districts of 6 districts in Chaiyaphum province. Participants (N = 1,010) participating in the processes of model development were comprised of 3 groups: a) a total of 110 health care professionals, b) a total of 600 health volunteers and family caregivers and c) a total of 300 the elderly dependent with chronically medical illnesses or disabilities. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyze data. Findings: Results have shown that the most common health problems among elders dependent with physical disabilities to function independently were cardiovascular disease, dementia, and traffic injuries. The development of home-based long term care model among elders dependent in Chaiyaphum province was composed of six key steps. They are: a) initiating policies supporting formal and informal caregivers for the elder dependent in all sub-districts, b) building network and multidisciplinary team, c) developing 3-day care manager training program and 3-day care provider training program d) training case managers and care providers for the elderly dependent through team and action learning, e) assessing, planning and providing care based on care individual’s needs of the elderly dependent, and f) sharing experiences for good practice and innovation for long term care at homes in district urban and rural areas. Among all care managers and care providers, the satisfaction level for training programs was high with a mean score of 3.98 out of 5. The elders dependent and family caregivers addressed that long term care at home could contribute to improving life’s daily activities, family relationship, health status, and quality of life. Family caregivers and volunteers have feeling a sense of personal satisfaction and experiencing providing meaningful care and support for elders dependent. Conclusion: In conclusion, a home-based long term care is important to Thai elders dependent. Care managers and care providers play a large role and responsibility to provide appropriate care to meet the elders’ needs in both urban and rural areas in Thai society. Further research could be rigorously studied with a larger group of populations in similar socio-economic and cultural contexts.

Keywords: elderly people, care manager, care provider, long term care

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Authors: Ahmad Shayeq Azizi, Yuji Toda

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In Afghanistan, floods are the most frequent and recurrent events among other natural disasters. On the other hand, lack of monitoring data is a severe problem, which increases the difficulty of making the appropriate flood countermeasures of flood forecasting. This study is carried out to simulate the flood inundation in Harirud River Basin by application of distributed hydrological model, Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) and 2D hydrodynamic model, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) based on satellite rainfall combined with historical peak discharge and global accessed data. The results of the simulation can predict the inundation area, depth and velocity, and the hardware countermeasures such as the impact of levee installation can be discussed by using the present method. The methodology proposed in this study is suitable for the area where hydrological and geographical data including river survey data are poorly observed.

Keywords: distributed hydrological model, flood inundation, hydrodynamic model, ungauged basins

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Authors: Xinyi Xu

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This study conducts a detailed examination of Asian stock markets over the period from 2008 to 2023, with a focus on the dynamics of cointegration and their relevance for long-term investment strategies. Specifically, we assess the co-movement and potential for pairs trading—a strategy where investors take opposing positions on two stocks, indices, or financial instruments that historically move together. For example, we explore the relationship between the Nikkei 225 (N225), Japan’s benchmark stock index, and the Straits Times Index (STI) of Singapore, as well as the relationship between the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KS11) and the STI. The methodology includes tests for normality, stationarity, cointegration, and the application of Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM). Our findings reveal significant long-term relationships between these pairs, indicating opportunities for pairs trading strategies. Furthermore, the research underscores the challenges posed by model instability and the influence of major global incidents, which are identified as structural breaks. These findings pave the way for further exploration into the intricacies of financial market dynamics.

Keywords: normality tests, stationarity, cointegration, VECM, pairs trading

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Authors: Elie Awwad, Bilal Hamad, Mounir Mabsout, Helmi Khatib

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The paper reports test results on the long-term behavior of sustainable hemp-concrete material prepared in research work conducted at the American University of Beirut. The tests results are in terms of compressive and splitting tensile tests conducted on standard 150x300 mm cylinders. A control mix without fibers, one polypropylene-concrete mix, and ten hemp-concrete mixes were prepared with different percentages of industrial hemp fibers and reduced coarse aggregate contents. The objective was to investigate the strength properties of hemp-reinforced concrete at 1.5 years age as compared with control mixes. The results indicated that both the compressive strength and the splitting tensile strength results of all tested cylinders increased as compared with the 28-days values. Also, the difference between the hemp-concrete samples and the control samples at 28 days was maintained at 1.5 years age indicating that hemp fibers did not exhibit any negative effect on the long-term strength properties of concrete.

Keywords: hemp-reinforced concrete, natural fibers, compressive strength, splitting tensile strength

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Authors: N. Y. H. Konagano

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Riverside population of Brazilian amazon suffers drinking water scarcity, seeking alternative water resources such as well and rivers, ordinary polluted. Although Amazon Region holds high annual river inflow and enough available of underground water, human activities have compromised the conservation of water resources. In addition, decentralized rural households make difficult to access of potable water. Main objective is to analyze quantitatively the potential of rainwater harvesting to human consumption at Marupaúba community, located in northeast of Amazon region, Brazil. Methods such as historical rainfall data series of municipality of Tomé-Açu at Pará state were obtained from Hydrological Information System of National Water Agency (ANA). Besides, Rippl method was used to calculate, mainly, volume of the reservoir based on difference of water demand and volume available through rainwater using as references two houses (CA I and CA II) as model of rainwater catchment and supply. Results presented that, from years 1984 to 2017, average annual precipitation was 2.607 mm, average maximum precipitation peak was 474 mm on March and average minimum peak on September was 44 mm. All months, of a year, surplus volume of water have presented in relation to demand, considering catchment area (CA) I = 134.4m² and demand volume =0.72 m³/month; and, CA II = 81.84 m² and demand volume = 0.48 m³/month. Based on results, it is concluded that it is feasible to use rainwater for the supply of the rural community Marupaúba, since the access of drinking water is a human right and the lack of this resource compromises health and daily life of human beings.

Keywords: Amazon Region, rainwater harvesting, rainwater resource, rural community

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Authors: Md Kamrul Hassan

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Adaptation interventions are the common response to manage the vulnerabilities of climate change. The nature of adaptation intervention depends on the degree of vulnerability and the capacity of a society. The coping interventions can take the form of hard adaptation – utilising technologies and capital goods like dykes, embankments, seawalls, and/or soft adaptation – engaging knowledge and information sharing, capacity building, policy and strategy development, and innovation. Hard adaptation is quite capital intensive but provides immediate relief from climate change vulnerabilities. This type of adaptation is not real development, as the investment for the adaptation cannot improve the performance – just maintain the status quo of a social or ecological system, and often lead to maladaptation in the long-term. Maladaptation creates a two-way loss for a society – interventions bring further vulnerability on top of the existing vulnerability and investment for getting rid of the consequence of interventions. Hard adaptation is popular to the vulnerable groups, but it focuses so much on the immediate solution and often ignores the environmental issues and future risks of climate change. On the other hand, soft adaptation is education oriented where vulnerable groups learn how to live with climate change impacts. Soft adaptation interventions build the capacity of vulnerable groups through training, innovation, and support, which might enhance the resilience of a system. In consideration of long-term sustainability, soft adaptation can contribute more to resilience than hard adaptation. Taking a developing society as the study context, this study aims to investigate and understand the effectiveness of the adaptation interventions of the coastal community of Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh. Applying semi-structured interviews with a range of Sundarbans stakeholders including community residents, tourism demand-supply side stakeholders, and conservation and management agencies (e.g., Government, NGOs and international agencies) and document analysis, this paper reports several key insights regarding climate change adaptation. Firstly, while adaptation interventions may offer a short-term to medium-term solution to climate change vulnerabilities, interventions need to be revised for long-term sustainability. Secondly, soft adaptation offers advantages in terms of resilience in a rapidly changing environment, as it is flexible and dynamic. Thirdly, there is a challenge to communicate to educate vulnerable groups to understand more about the future effects of hard adaptation interventions (and the potential for maladaptation). Fourthly, hard adaptation can be used if the interventions do not degrade the environmental balance and if the investment of interventions does not exceed the economic benefit of the interventions. Overall, the goal of an adaptation intervention should be to enhance the resilience of a social or ecological system so that the system can with stand present vulnerabilities and future risks. In order to be sustainable, adaptation interventions should be designed in such way that those can address vulnerabilities and risks of climate change in a long-term timeframe.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, maladaptation, resilience, Sundarbans, sustainability, vulnerability

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Authors: Andreas Hirseland, Lukas Kerschbaumer

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In Germany, during the past years there constantly are about one million long term unemployed who did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to regular employment, especially if accompanied by other impediments such as low level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. Almost two thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Hiring them is often considered as an investment too risky for employers. Therefore formal application schemes based on formal qualification certificates and vocational biographies might reduce employers’ risks but at the same time are not helpful for long-term unemployed and welfare recipients. The panel survey ‘Labor market and social security’ (PASS; ~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency), shows that their chance to get back to work tends to fall to nil. Only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions could be observed. In a sequential explanatory mixed-method study, the very scarce ‘success stories’ of unlikely transitions from long term unemployment to work were explored by qualitative inquiry – in-depth interviews with a focus on biography accompanied by qualitative network techniques in order to get a more detailed insight of relevant actors involved in the processes which promote the transition from being a welfare recipient to work. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation.

Keywords: against-all-odds, economic sociology, long-term unemployment, mixed-methods

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Authors: A. B. Benshak, M. G. Yilkangnha, V. Y. Nanle

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Social crises and violent conflict can inflict direct (short-term) impact on the environment like poisoning water bodies, climate change, deforestation, destroying the chemical component of the soil due to the chemical and biological weapons used. It can also impact the environment indirectly (long-term), e.g., the destruction of political and economic infrastructure to manage the environmental resources and breaking down traditional conservation practices, population displacement and refugee flows which puts pressure on the already inadequate resources, infrastructure, facilities, amenities, services etc. This study therefore examines the impact of social crises on the environment in Jos Plateau State with emphasis on the long-term impact, analyze the relationship between crises and the environment and assess the perception of people on social crises because much work have concentrated on other repercussions such as the economy, health etc that are more politically expedient. The data for this research were collected mostly through interviews, questionnaire, dailies and reports on the subject matter. The data and findings were presented in tables and results showed that the environment is directly and indirectly impacted by crises and that these impacts can in turn result to a continuous cycle of violent activities if not addressed because of the inadequacies in the supply of infrastructural facilities, resources and so on caused by the inflow of displaced population. Recommendations were made on providing security to minimize conflict occurrences in Jos and its environs, minimizing the impact of social crises on the environment, provision of adequate infrastructural facilities to carter for population rise, renewal and regeneration schemes, etc. which will go a long way in mitigating the impact of crises on the environment.

Keywords: environment, impact, long-term, social crises

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang

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The purpose of this study is to explore the effects of telecare on preventing and delaying the quality of disability care in elderly people with portable comfort Bluetooth brainwave devices with remote healthcare functions. Through the teaching videos and remotely teaching the elderly, which had ever learned the care courses of the prevent and delay disability, these elderly did muscle strength training. Then this paper explores the effect of training with the data by SPSS 18.0 statistical software. The data is collected with pre-test, post-test and analyze data from the measure of the Bluetooth brain wave equipment including the pressure index, relaxation index, attention and fatigue index of the elderly. In this study, 30 elderly people who had taken preventive and delayed disability care courses were studied to explore the effect of their care quality improvement. The results showed that the pressure index, relaxation index, attention, and fatigue index of the elderly had statistically significant differences in two months. It can be seen that elderly people who have been treated to prevent and delay disability care courses can significantly improve their care quality if they continue to receive intensive training to prevent and delay disability through remote mode. This telecare is applied to the elderly program that has been used to prevent and delay disability care courses. It is worth continuing to promote, and it is recommended that follow-up studies be conducted in a longer-term manner to explore long-term benefits. It can solve the current insufficiency of long-term care resources, but the demand is urgent.

Keywords: telecare, bluetooth brainwave equipment, prevention and delay of disability, the elderly, care quality

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Authors: Mohammad Moridzadeh, Mohammad Djavid, Barry Doyle

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An assessment of the long-term stability of a cavern in Chagrin shale excavated by the sequential excavation method was performed during and after construction. During the excavation of the cavern, deformations of rock mass were measured at the surface of excavation and within the rock mass by surface and deep measurement instruments. Rock deformations were measured during construction which appeared to result from the as-built excavation sequence that had potentially disturbed the rock and its behavior. Also some additional time dependent rock deformations were observed during and post excavation. Several opinions have been expressed to explain this time dependent deformation including stress changes induced by excavation, strain softening (or creep) in the beddings with and without clay and creep of the shaley rock under compressive stresses. In order to analyze and replicate rock behavior observed during excavation, including current and post excavation elastic, plastic, and time dependent deformation, Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was performed. The analysis was also intended to estimate long term deformation of the rock mass around the excavation. Rock mass behavior including time dependent deformation was measured by means of rock surface convergence points, MPBXs, extended creep testing on the long anchors, and load history data from load cells attached to several long anchors. Direct creep testing of Chagrin Shale was performed on core samples from the wall of the Pump Room. Results of these measurements were used to calibrate the FEA of the excavation. These analyses incorporate time dependent constitutive modeling for the rock to evaluate the potential long term movement in the roof, walls, and invert of the cavern. The modeling was performed due to the concerns regarding the unanticipated behavior of the rock mass as well as the forecast of long term deformation and stability of rock around the excavation.

Keywords: Cavern, Chagrin shale, creep, finite element.

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Authors: Jitendra Jain, Cassandra Hidajat, Hansraj Riteesh Bookun

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Graft patency underpins long-term prognosis after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). The benefits of the combined use of only the left internal mammary artery and radial artery, referred to as total arterial revascularisation (TAR), on long-term clinical outcomes and quality of life are relatively unknown. The aim of this study was to identify whether there were differences in long term clinical outcomes between recipients of TAR compared to a cohort of mostly arterial revascularization involving the left internal mammary, at least one radial artery and at least one saphenous vein graft. A retrospective analysis was performed on all patients who underwent TAR or were re-vascularized with supplementary saphenous vein graft from February 1996 to December 2004. Telephone surveys were conducted to obtain clinical outcome parameters including major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and Short Form (SF-36v2) Health Survey responses. A total of 176 patients were successfully contacted to obtain postop follow up results. The mean follow-up length from time of surgery in our study was TAR 12.4±1.8 years and conventional 12.6±2.1. PCS score was TAR 45.9±8.8 vs LIMA/Rad/ SVG 44.9±9.2 (p=0.468) and MCS score was TAR 52.0±8.9 vs LIMA/Rad/SVG 52.5±9.3 (p=0.723). There were no significant differences between groups for NYHA class 3+ TAR 9.4% vs. LIMA/Rad/SVG 6.6%; or CCS 3+ TAR 2.35% vs. LIMA/Rad/SVG 0%.

Keywords: CABG; MACCEs; quality of life; total arterial revascularisation

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Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin

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Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.

Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

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Authors: Melby Chacko, Jagannath Nayak

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The aging behaviour of 6061 Al-15 vol% SiC composite was investigated using Rockwell B hardness measurement. The composite was solutionized at 350°C and quenched in water. The composite was aged at room temperature (T4 treatment) and also at 140°C, 160°C, 180°C and 200°C (T6 treatment). The natural and artificial aging behaviour of composite was studied using aging curves determined at different temperatures. The aging period for peak aging for different temperatures was identified. The time required for attaining peak aging decreased with increase in the aging temperature. The peak hardness was found to increase with increase with aging temperature and the highest peak hardness was observed at 180ºC. Beyond 180ºC the peak hardness was found to be decreasing.

Keywords: 6061 Al-SiC composite, aging curve, Rockwell B hardness, T4, T6 treatments

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Authors: Athanasios A. Tountas, Geoffrey A. Ozin, Mohini M. Sain

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Renewable hydrogen (H₂) carriers such as methanol (MeOH), dimethyl ether (DME), oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OMEs), and conceivably ammonia (NH₃) can be reformed back into H₂ and are fundamental chemical conversions for the long-term viability of the H₂ economy due to their higher densities and ease of transportability compared to H₂. MeOH is an especially important carrier as it is a simple C1 chemical that can be produced from green solar-PV-generated H₂ and direct-air-captured CO₂ with a current commercially practical solar-to-fuel efficiency of 10% from renewable solar energy. MeOH steam reforming (MSR) in stationary systems next to H₂ fuel-cell filling stations can eliminate the need for onboard mobile reformers, and the former systems can be more robust in terms of attaining strict H₂ product specifications, and MeOH is a safe, lossless, and compact medium for long-term H₂ storage. Both thermal- and photo-catalysts are viable options for achieving the stable, long-term performance of stationary MSR systems.

Keywords: fuel-cell vehicle filling stations, methanol steam reforming, hydrogen transport and storage, stationary reformer, liquid hydrogen carriers

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Authors: Zhihui Liu, Dongmei Hao, Qian Qiu, Yang An, Lin Yang, Song Zhang, Yimin Yang, Xuwen Li, Dingchang Zheng

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Premature birth, defined as birth before 37 completed weeks of gestation is a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality and has long-term adverse consequences for health. It has recently been reported that the worldwide preterm birth rate is around 10%. The existing measurement techniques for diagnosing preterm delivery include tocodynamometer, ultrasound and fetal fibronectin. However, they are subjective, or suffer from high measurement variability and inaccurate diagnosis and prediction of preterm labor. Electrohysterography (EHG) method based on recording of uterine electrical activity by electrodes attached to maternal abdomen, is a promising method to assess uterine activity and diagnose preterm labor. The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference of EHG signal features between term labor and preterm labor. Free access database was used with 300 signals acquired in two groups of pregnant women who delivered at term (262 cases) and preterm (38 cases). Among them, EHG signals from 38 term labor and 38 preterm labor were preprocessed with band-pass Butterworth filters of 0.08–4Hz. Then, EHG signal features were extracted, which comprised classical time domain description including root mean square and zero-crossing number, spectral parameters including peak frequency, mean frequency and median frequency, wavelet packet coefficients, autoregression (AR) model coefficients, and nonlinear measures including maximal Lyapunov exponent, sample entropy and correlation dimension. Their statistical significance for recognition of two groups of recordings was provided. The results showed that mean frequency of preterm labor was significantly smaller than term labor (p < 0.05). 5 coefficients of AR model showed significant difference between term labor and preterm labor. The maximal Lyapunov exponent of early preterm (time of recording < the 26th week of gestation) was significantly smaller than early term. The sample entropy of late preterm (time of recording > the 26th week of gestation) was significantly smaller than late term. There was no significant difference for other features between the term labor and preterm labor groups. Any future work regarding classification should therefore focus on using multiple techniques, with the mean frequency, AR coefficients, maximal Lyapunov exponent and the sample entropy being among the prime candidates. Even if these methods are not yet useful for clinical practice, they do bring the most promising indicators for the preterm labor.

Keywords: electrohysterogram, feature, preterm labor, term labor

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Chia-Ching Tsai

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The aim of this study is to examine the stock price effect of the enterprises being classified as socially responsible. We explore the stock price response to the announcement that an enterprise is selected for the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards. Empirical results indicate that the announcements of the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards provide useful informational content to stock market. We find the evidence of insignificantly positive short-term and significantly positive long-term price reaction to the enterprises being classified as socially responsible. This study concludes that investors in the Taiwan stock market tend to view an enterprise being selected for the Taiwan Corporate Sustainability Awards as one with superior quality and long-term price potential.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, stock price effect, Taiwan stock market, investments

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Authors: Farshad Ghazalian, Laleh Hakemi, Lotfali Pourkazemi, Maryam Ameri, Seyed Hossein Alavi

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Background: The use of whole body vibration (WBV) as an exercise method has rapidly increased over the last decade. The aim of this study was to evaluate long term effects of different amplitudes of whole body vibration training with progressive frequencies on lipid profile of young healthy men. Materials and methods: Thirty three healthy male students were divided randomly in three groups: high amplitude vibration group (n=11), low amplitude vibration group (n=11), and control group (n=11). The vibration training consisted of 5 week whole-body vibration 3 times a week with amplitudes 4 and 2 mm and progressive frequencies from 25 Hz with increments of 5 Hz weekly. Concentrations TG, HDL, LDL, cholesterol, and VLDL before and after 5 weeks of training were measured in plasma samples. Statistical analysis was done using one way analysis of variance. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The most important result of the present study is finding no favorable changes of 5-week vibration training with different amplitudes on blood lipid profiles. Discussion and conclusions: It was emphasized that in vibration training there should be a relationship between intensity and volume of exercise and lipid responses in order to improve blood lipoprotein profiles.

Keywords: long term, body, vibration training, lipid

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: technical analysis, expert system, law of demand, stocks, portfolio analysis, Indian automotive sector

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Authors: Damanhur Munardi, Muhammad Hafiz, Dina Nurmalita Sari, Syarifah Ridani Alifa

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Purpose: This research aims to analyze the Benefits, Opportunity, Cost, and Risk aspects of applying the Green Finance concept and to obtain the right Green Finance financing strategy to be implemented within a long-term and short-term strategic framework.Methodology: This research method uses a qualitative-descriptive analysis approach. The analysis technique uses Analytical Network Process (ANP) with a BOCR network structure approach.Findings: The research results show that the most priority long-term strategic alternative based on the long-term BOCR analysis is increasing awareness among the public and industry by 52% and the importance of coordination between related institutions by 50%. Meanwhile, the most priority short-term strategic alternatives are the importance of coordination between related institutions 29%, increasing awareness among the public and industry 28%, the banking industry proactively funding environmentally friendly companies and technology 23%, the existence of Green Finance POS (Standard Operating Procedures) 20%.Implications: This research can be used as a reference for regulators and policymakers in making strategic decisions that can increase green finance financing. The novelty of this research is identifying problems that occur in green finance financing in Aceh province by analyzing opinions from experts in related fields and financial regulators in Aceh to create a strategy that can be implemented to increase green finance financing in Aceh province through BPD in Aceh, namely Bank Aceh.

Keywords: green financing, banking, sharia, islamic

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Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

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The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: wind power, Gaussien process, modelling, forecasting

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Authors: Rafid A. Al-Khannak, Fawzi M. Al-Naima

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Power load is one of the most important controlling keys which decide power demands and illustrate power usage to shape power market. Hence, power load forecasting is the parameter which facilitates understanding and analyzing all these aspects. In this paper, power load forecasting is solved under MATLAB environment by constructing a neural network for the power load to find an accurate simulated solution with the minimum error. A developed algorithm to achieve load forecasting application with faster technique is the aim for this paper. The algorithm is used to enable MATLAB power application to be implemented by multi machines in the Grid computing system, and to accomplish it within much less time, cost and with high accuracy and quality. Grid Computing, the modern computational distributing technology, has been used to enhance the performance of power applications by utilizing idle and desired Grid contributor(s) by sharing computational power resources.

Keywords: DeskGrid, Grid Server, idle contributor(s), grid computing, load forecasting

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Authors: Chen-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

Introduction Elderly is growing and results to live in the long-term care (LTC) and then due to the routine of the facilities in Taiwan, also resulted to losing of those people with environment interaction, so, the self-reliance support (SRS) for those people to experience environment interaction is an essential. Methods This study was recruited samples of a LTC in the central of Taiwan. There was a following research on the SRS group with 20 samples collected and routine care group with 20 samples. A structured questionnaire as the Environment Interaction Dimension, as data collection included demographic information and the dimensions of environment interaction. Data analysis used SPSS 22.0 for Window 2000 to report the finding. Results The Environment Interaction Dimension for Taiwanese is a Chinese version of the containing 8 items. The result of t-test analysis found that environment interaction showed a significant difference between groups (p＜.05), the result recommended that there was a higher score of environment interaction dimension on the SRS group (29.90±5.56) comparing with the routine care group (22.1±5.53). Conclusion This study showed that the SRS group was higher than the routine care group on the environment interaction dimension for Taiwanese elderly living in the LTC. The results can also provide the reference for LTC, to encourage those people to participate in SRS in LTC, and therefore also improving their environment interaction.

Keywords: self-reliance support, environment interaction, long-term care, elderly

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Authors: K. M. Salim Reza, M. Hafiz Mia, M. A. Aziz, M. A. Motin, M. M. Rahman, M. A. Hasem

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The redox behavior of Fe (III) in presence of Catechol (Cc) has been carried out in buffer solution of different pH, scan rate, variation of Fe (III) concentration and Cc concentration. Uncoordinated Fe(III) or Cc has been found to undergo reversible electrode reaction whereas coordinated Fe-Cc is irreversible. The peak positions of the voltammogram of Fe- Cc shifted with respect to that of free Fe (III) or Cc and also developed a new peak at 0.12 V. The peak current of Fe-Cc decreases significantly compared with that of free Fe(III) or Cc in the same experimental conditions. These behaviors ascribed the formation of complex of Fe with Cc. The complex was formed either by the addition of Cc into Fe(III) or by the addition of Fe(III) into Cc. The effect of pH of Fe-Cc complex was studied by varying pH from 2 to 8.5. The electro chemical oxidation of Fe-Cc is facilitated in lower pH media. The slope of the plots of anodic peak current, Ep against pH of Fe-Cc complexe is 30 mV, indicates that the oxidation of Fe-Cc complexes proceeded via the 2e−/2H+ processes. The proportionality of the anodic and cathodic peak currents with square root of scan rate of suggests that the peak current of the different complexes at each redox reaction is controlled by diffusion process.

Keywords: cyclic voltammetry, Fe-Cc Complex, pH effect, redox interaction

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