Search results for: geotechnical random variables

Authors: Yakubu Suleiman, S. A. Musa

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The research was conducted to determine the physical characteristics of banana fruits that influenced consumer preferences for the fruit in Northern Nigeria. Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents were also identified. Simple descriptive statistics and Hedonic prices model were used to analyze the data collected for socio-economic and consumer preference respectively with the aid of 1000 structured questionnaires. The result revealed the value of R2 to be 0.633, meaning that, 63.3% of the variation in the banana price was brought about by the explanatory variables included in the model and the variables are: colour, size, degree of ripeness, softness, surface blemish, cleanliness of the fruits, weight, length, and cluster size of fruits. However, the remaining 36.7% could be attributed to the error term or random disturbance in the model. It could also be seen from the calculated result that the intercept was 1886.5 and was statistically significant (P < 0.01), meaning that about N1886.5 worth of banana fruits could be bought by consumers without considering the variables of banana included in the model. Moreover, consumers showed that they have significant preference for colours, size, degree of ripeness, softness, weight, length and cluster size of banana fruits and they were tested to be significant at either P < 0.01, P < 0.05, and P < 0.1 . Moreover, the result also shows that consumers did not show significance preferences to surface blemish, cleanliness and variety of the banana fruit as all of them showed non-significance level with negative signs. Based on the findings of the research, it is hereby recommended that plant breeders and research institutes should concentrate on the production of banana fruits that have those physical characteristics that were found to be statistically significance like cluster size, degree of ripeness,’ softness, length, size, and skin colour.

Keywords: analysis, consumers, preference, variables

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Leo Carlo B. Rondina

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Self-image is an important factor to improve the self-esteem of the personnel. The purpose of the study is to determine the self-image of the police. The respondents were the 503 policemen assigned in different Police Station in Davao City, and they were chosen with the used of random sampling. With the used of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), latent construct variables of police image were identified as follows; professionalism, obedience, morality and justice and fairness. Further, ordinal regression indicates statistical characteristics on ages 21-40 which means the age of the respondent statistically improves self-image.

Keywords: police image, exploratory factor analysis, ordinal regression, Galatea effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: Marlen Acosta Alamo, Lisa Manne, Richard Veit

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Habitat loss due to land use change is one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. This form of habitat loss is a non-random phenomenon since the same environmental factors that make an area suitable for supporting high local biodiversity overlap with those that make it attractive for urban development. We aimed to compare the effect of two non-random habitat loss predictors on the richness, abundance, and rarity of nature-affiliated and human-affiliated North American breeding birds. For each group of birds, we simulated the non-random habitat loss using two predictors: the House Price Index as a measure of the attractiveness of an area for humans and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy for primary productivity. We compared the results of the two non-random simulation sets and one set of random habitat loss simulations using an analysis of variance and followed up with a Tukey-Kramer test when appropriate. The attractiveness of an area for humans predicted estimates of richness loss and increase of rarity higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for nature-affiliated and human-affiliated birds. For example, at 50% of habitat loss, the attractiveness of an area for humans produced estimates of richness at least 5% lower and of a rarity at least 40% higher than primary productivity and random habitat loss for both groups of birds. Only for the species abundance of nature-affiliated birds, the attractiveness of an area for humans did not outperform primary productivity as a predictor of biodiversity following habitat loss. We demonstrated the value of the House Price Index, which can be used in conservation assessments as an index of the risks of habitat loss for natural communities. Thus, our results have relevant implications for sustainable urban land-use planning practices and can guide stakeholders and developers in their efforts to conserve local biodiversity.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, bird biodiversity, house price index, non-random habitat loss

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Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

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HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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Authors: Maha Almumaiz, Harry Evdorides

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Change in land value typically occurs when a new interurban road construction causes an increase in accessibility; this change in the adjacent lands values differs according to land characteristics such as geographic location, land use type, land area and sale time (appraisal time). A multiple regression model is obtained to predict the percent change in land value (CLV) based on four independent variables namely land distance from the constructed road, area of land, nature of land use and time from the works completion of the road. The random values of percent change in land value were generated using Microsoft Excel with a range of up to 35%. The trend of change in land value with the four independent variables was determined from the literature references. The statistical analysis and model building process has been made by using the IBM SPSS V23 software. The Regression model suggests, for lands that are located within 3 miles as the straight distance from the road, the percent CLV is between (0-35%) which is depending on many factors including distance from the constructed road, land use, land area and time from works completion of the new road.

Keywords: interurban road, land use types, new road construction, percent CLV, regression model

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Authors: Mohammad Irfan

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Indian Shariah Indices, macroeconomic variables, co-integration, Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM)

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Vineet Jain, Rajesh Chouhan

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Traffic management is one of the gigantic issue in most of the urban roads in al-most all metropolitan cities in India. Speed is one of the critical traffic parameters for effective Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) implementation as it decides the arrival rate of vehicles on an intersection which are majorly the point of con-gestions. The study aimed to leverage Machine Learning (ML) models to produce precise predictions of speed on urban roadway links. The research objective was to assess how categorized traffic volume and road width, serving as variables, in-fluence speed prediction. Four tree-based regression models namely: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB)are employed for this purpose. The models' performances were validated using test data, and the results demonstrate that Random Forest surpasses other machine learning techniques and a conventional utility theory-based model in speed prediction. The study is useful for managing the urban roadway network performance under mixed traffic conditions and effective implementation of ITS.

Keywords: stream speed, urban roads, machine learning, traffic flow

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Authors: Yaowei Hu, Yongkai Wu, Lu Zhang, Xintao Wu

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Causal inference from observational data is receiving wide applications in many fields. However, unidentifiable situations, where causal effects cannot be uniquely computed from observational data, pose critical barriers to applying causal inference to complicated real applications. In this paper, we develop a bounding method for estimating the average causal effect (ACE) under unidentifiable situations due to hidden confounders. We propose to parameterize the unknown exogenous random variables and structural equations of a causal model using neural networks and implicit generative models. Then, with an adversarial learning framework, we search the parameter space to explicitly traverse causal models that agree with the given observational distribution and find those that minimize or maximize the ACE to obtain its lower and upper bounds. The proposed method does not make any assumption about the data generating process and the type of the variables. Experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: average causal effect, hidden confounding, bound estimation, generative adversarial learning

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Authors: Shabnam Najafi, Metin Turkay

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Network design problem (NDP) is used to determine the set of optimal values for certain pre-specified decision variables such as capacity expansion of nodes and links by optimizing various system performance measures including safety, congestion, and accessibility. The designed transportation network should improve objective functions defined for the system by considering the route choice behaviors of network users at the same time. The NDP studies mostly investigated the random demand and route selection constraints separately due to computational challenges. In this work, we consider both random demand and route selection constraints simultaneously. This work presents a nonlinear stochastic model for land use and road network design problem to address the development of different functional zones in urban areas by considering both cost function and air pollution. This model minimizes cost function and air pollution simultaneously with random demand and stochastic route selection constraint that aims to optimize network performance via road capacity expansion. The Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) link impedance function is used to determine the travel time function in each link. We consider a city with origin and destination nodes which can be residential or employment or both. There are set of existing paths between origin-destination (O-D) pairs. Case of increasing employed population is analyzed to determine amount of roads and origin zones simultaneously. Minimizing travel and expansion cost of routes and origin zones in one side and minimizing CO emission in the other side is considered in this analysis at the same time. In this work demand between O-D pairs is random and also the network flow pattern is subject to stochastic user equilibrium, specifically logit route choice model. Considering both demand and route choice, random is more applicable to design urban network programs. Epsilon-constraint is one of the methods to solve both linear and nonlinear multi-objective problems. In this work epsilon-constraint method is used to solve the problem. The problem was solved by keeping first objective (cost function) as the objective function of the problem and second objective as a constraint that should be less than an epsilon, where epsilon is an upper bound of the emission function. The value of epsilon should change from the worst to the best value of the emission function to generate the family of solutions representing Pareto set. A numerical example with 2 origin zones and 2 destination zones and 7 links is solved by GAMS and the set of Pareto points is obtained. There are 15 efficient solutions. According to these solutions as cost function value increases, emission function value decreases and vice versa.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint, multi-objective, network design, stochastic

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Authors: M. Z. Raqab, Debasis Kundu, M. A. Meraou

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In this paper, we have analyzed maximum precipitation data during a particular period of time obtained from different stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network of the USA. One important point to mention is that some stations are shut down on certain days for some reason or the other. Hence, the maximum values are recorded by excluding those readings. It is assumed that the number of stations that operate follows zero-truncated Poisson random variables, and the daily precipitation follows a lognormal random variable. We call this model a compound truncated Poisson lognormal model. The proposed model has three unknown parameters, and it can take a variety of shapes. The maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained quite conveniently using Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators are also derived. The associated confidence intervals also can be obtained from the observed Fisher information matrix. Simulation results have been performed to check the performance of the EM algorithm, and it is observed that the EM algorithm works quite well in this case. When we analyze the precipitation data set using the proposed model, it is observed that the proposed model provides a better fit than some of the existing models.

Keywords: compound Poisson lognormal distribution, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, approximate maximum likelihood estimation, Fisher information, skew distribution

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Authors: Samira Cherid, Samir Bentata, F. Zahira Meghoufel, Sabria Terkhi, Yamina Sefir, Fatima Bendahma, Bouabdellah Bouadjemi, Ali Z. Itouni

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In this work, we examined the propagation of light in one-dimensional systems is examined by means of the random dimer model. The introduction of defect elements, randomly in the studied system, breaks down the Anderson localization and provides a set of propagating delocalized modes at the corresponding conventional dimer resonances. However, tuning suitably the defect dimer resonance on the host ones (or vice versa), the transmission magnitudes can be enhanced providing the optimized ballistic transmission regime as an average response. Hence, ballistic optical filters can be conceived at desired wavelengths.

Keywords: photonic crystals, random dimer model, ballistic resonance, localization and transmission

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Authors: S. Dorbani, M. Badaoui, D. Benouar

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the building fundamental period of reinforced concrete buildings of (6, 9, and 12-storey), with different floor plans: Symmetric, mono-symmetric, and unsymmetric. These structures are erected at different epicentral distances. Using the Boumerdes, Algeria (2003) earthquake data, we focused primarily on the establishment of the deterministic formulation linking the base shear force to two parameters: The first one is the fundamental period that represents the numerical fingerprint of the structure, and the second one is the epicentral distance used to represent the impact of the earthquake on this force. In a second step, with a view to highlight the effect of uncertainty in these parameters on the analyzed response, these parameters are modeled as random variables with a log-normal distribution. The variability of the coefficients of variation of the chosen uncertain parameters, on the statistics on the seismic base shear force, showed that the effect of uncertainty on fundamental period on this force statistics is low compared to the epicentral distance uncertainty influence.

Keywords: base shear force, fundamental period, epicentral distance, uncertainty, lognormal variables, statistics

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Mochamad Beta Auditama, Yusuf Kurniawan

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A smartphone or tablet require a strong randomness to establish secure encrypted communication, encrypt files, etc. Therefore, random number generation is one of the main keys to provide secrecy. Android devices are equipped with hardware-based sensors, such as accelerometer, gyroscope, etc. Each of these sensors provides a stochastic process which has a potential to be used as an extra randomness source, in addition to /dev/random and /dev/urandom pseudorandom number generators. Android sensors can provide randomness automatically. To obtain randomness from Android sensors, each one of Android sensors shall be used to construct an entropy source. After all entropy sources are constructed, output from these entropy sources are combined to provide more entropy. Then, a deterministic process is used to produces a sequence of random bits from the combined output. All of these processes are done in accordance with NIST SP 800-22 and the series of NIST SP 800-90. The operation conditions are done 1) on Android user-space, and 2) the Android device is placed motionless on a desk.

Keywords: Android hardware-based sensor, deterministic process, entropy source, random number generation/generators

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Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Ruan S., Digonnet H., Antonioli D.

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Introduction: Deep Learning (DL) is a very powerful tool for analyzing image data. But for tabular data, it cannot compete with machine learning methods like XGBoost. The research question becomes: can tabular data be transformed into images that can be analyzed by simple CNNs (Convolutional Neuron Networks)? Will DL be the absolute tool for data classification? All current solutions consist in repositioning the variables in a 2x2 matrix using their correlation proximity. In doing so, it obtains an image whose pixels are the variables. We implement a technology, DeepNIC, that offers the possibility of obtaining an image for each variable, which can be analyzed by simple CNNs. Material and method: The 'ROP' (Regression OPtimized) model is a binary and atypical decision tree whose nodes are managed by a new artificial neuron, the Neurop. By positioning an artificial neuron in each node of the decision trees, it is possible to make an adjustment on a theoretically infinite number of variables at each node. From this new decision tree whose nodes are artificial neurons, we created the concept of a 'Random Forest of Perfect Trees' (RFPT), which disobeys Breiman's concepts by assembling very large numbers of small trees with no classification errors. From the results of the RFPT, we developed a family of 10 statistical information criteria, Nguyen Information Criterion (NICs), which evaluates in 3 dimensions the predictive quality of a variable: Performance, Complexity and Multiplicity of solution. A NIC is a probability that can be transformed into a grey level. The value of a NIC depends essentially on 2 super parameters used in Neurops. By varying these 2 super parameters, we obtain a 2x2 matrix of probabilities for each NIC. We can combine these 10 NICs with the functions AND, OR, and XOR. The total number of combinations is greater than 100,000. In total, we obtain for each variable an image of at least 1166x1167 pixels. The intensity of the pixels is proportional to the probability of the associated NIC. The color depends on the associated NIC. This image actually contains considerable information about the ability of the variable to make the prediction of Y, depending on the presence or absence of other variables. A basic CNNs model was trained for supervised classification. Results: The first results are impressive. Using the GSE22513 public data (Omic data set of markers of Taxane Sensitivity in Breast Cancer), DEEPNic outperformed other statistical methods, including XGBoost. We still need to generalize the comparison on several databases. Conclusion: The ability to transform any tabular variable into an image offers the possibility of merging image and tabular information in the same format. This opens up great perspectives in the analysis of metadata.

Keywords: tabular data, CNNs, NICs, DeepNICs, random forest of perfect trees, classification

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Authors: Odejayi Adedayo Olugbenga, Aina Adebisi

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Weather variables (rainfall and temperature) affect the diversity and abundance of both fauna and flora species. This study compared the weather variables with spider abundance in two ecological zones of Ogun State, Nigeria namely Ago-iwoye (Rainforest) in the Ijebu axis and Aiyetoro (Derived Savannah) in the Yewa axis. Seven study sites chosen by Simple Random Sampling in each ecosystem were used for the study. In each sampling area, a 60 m x 120 m land area was marked and sampled, spider collection techniques were; hand picking, use of sweep netting, and Pitfall trap. Adult spiders were identified to the species level. Species richness was estimated by a non-parametric species estimator while the diversity of spider species was assessed by Simpson Diversity Index and Species Richness by One-way Analysis of Variance. Results revealed that spiders were more abundant in rainforest zones than in derived savannah ecosystems. However, the pattern of spider abundance in rainforest zone and residential areas were similar. During high temperatures, the activities of spiders tended to increase according to this study. In contrast, results showed that there was a negative correlation between rainfall and spider species abundance in addition to a negative and weak correlation between rainfall and species richness. It was concluded that heavy downpour has lethal effects on both immature and sometimes matured spiders, which could lead to the extinction of some unknown species of spiders. Tree planting should be encouraged, as this shelters the spider.

Keywords: spider, abundance, species richness, species diversity

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Authors: A. Ghasemipanah, R. Ziaie Moayed, H. Niroumand

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Improving the geotechnical properties of soil has always been one of the issues in geotechnical engineering. Traditional materials have been used to improve and stabilize soils to date, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. Although the soil stabilization by adding materials such as cement, lime, bitumen, etc. is one of the effective methods to improve the geotechnical properties of soil, but nanoparticles are one of the newest additives which can improve the loose soils. This research is intended to study the effect of adding nanobentonite on soil engineering properties, especially the unconfined compression strength and maximum dry unit weight, using clayey soil with low liquid limit (CL) from Kerman (Iran). Nanobentonite was mixed with soil in three different percentages (i.e. 3, 5, 7% by weight of the parent soil) with different curing time (1, 7 and 28 days). The unconfined compression strength, liquid and plastic limits and plasticity index of treated specimens were measured by unconfined compression and Atterberg limits test. It was found that increase in nanobentonite content resulted in increase in the unconfined compression strength, liquid and plastic limits of the clayey soil and reduce in plasticity index.

Keywords: nanobentonite particles, clayey soil, unconfined compression stress, soil improvement.

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Authors: Willy Mbenza, Sho Kenjiro

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Increasing efforts are directed towards a better understanding and foreknowledge of extreme precipitation likelihood, given the adverse effects associated with their occurrence. This knowledge plays a crucial role in long-term planning and the formulation of effective emergency response. However, predicting extreme events reliably presents a challenge to conventional empirical/statistics due to the involvement of numerous variables spanning different time and space scales. In the recent time, Machine Learning has emerged as a promising tool for predicting the dynamics of extreme precipitation. ML techniques enables the consideration of both local and regional physical variables that have a strong influence on the likelihood of extreme precipitation. These variables encompasses factors such as air temperature, soil moisture, specific humidity, aerosol concentration, among others. In this study, we develop an ML model that incorporates both local and regional variables while establishing a robust relationship between physical variables and precipitation during the downscaling process. Furthermore, the model provides valuable information on the frequency and duration of a given intensity of precipitation.

Keywords: machine learning (ML), predictions, rainfall events, regional variables

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Authors: K. Abuzayan, H. Alabed

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The objectives of this study (baseline study, n = 20) were to implement Matlab procedures for quantifying selected static balance variables, establish baseline data of selected variables which characterize static balance activities in a population of healthy young adult males, and to examine any trial effects on these variables. The results indicated that the implementation of Matlab procedures for quantifying selected static balance variables was practical and enabled baseline data to be established for selected variables. There was no significant trial effect. Recommendations were made for suitable tests to be used in later studies. Specifically it was found that one foot-tiptoes tests either in static balance is too challenging for most participants in normal circumstances. A one foot-flat eyes open test was considered to be representative and challenging for static balance.

Keywords: static balance, base of support, baseline data, young adults

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Authors: Chun-Qing Li, Hassan Baji, Wei Yang

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Corrosion of steel in reinforced concrete structures is a major problem worldwide. The volume expansion of corrosion products causes concrete cover cracking, which could lead to delamination of concrete cover. The time to cover cracking plays a key role to the assessment of serviceability of reinforced concrete structures subjected to corrosion. Many analytical, numerical, and empirical models have been developed to predict the time to cracking initiation due to corrosion. In this study, a numerical model based on finite element modeling of corrosion-induced cracking process is used. In order to predict the service life based on time to cover initiation, the numerical approach is coupled with a probabilistic procedure. In this procedure, all the influential factors affecting time to cover cracking are modeled as random variables. The results show that the time to cover cracking is highly variables. It is also shown that rust product expansion ratio and the size of more porous concrete zone around the rebar are the most influential factors in predicting service life of corrosion-affected structures.

Keywords: corrosion, crack width, probabilistic, service life

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Authors: Ahmed A. A. Fadol, Guangji Tong, Wlaa Mohamed

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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of food insecurity in Sudan, focusing on consumption patterns and their implications, employing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment framework. Years of conflict and economic instability have driven large segments of the population in Sudan into crisis levels of acute food insecurity according to the (IPC). A substantial number of people are estimated to currently face emergency conditions, with an additional sizeable portion categorized under less severe but still extreme hunger levels. In this study, we explore the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan, considering its historical, political, economic, and social dimensions. An analysis of consumption patterns and trends was conducted, taking into account cultural influences, dietary shifts, and demographic changes. Furthermore, we employ logistic regression and random forest analysis to identify significant independent variables influencing food security status in Sudan. Random forest clearly outperforms logistic regression in terms of area under curve (AUC), accuracy, precision and recall. Forward projections of the IPC for Sudan estimate that 15 million individuals are anticipated to face Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity conditions between October 2023 and February 2024. Of this, 60% are concentrated in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Khartoum State, with Greater Darfur alone representing 29% of this total. These findings emphasize the urgent need for both short-term humanitarian aid and long-term strategies to address Sudan's deepening food insecurity crisis.

Keywords: food insecurity, consumption patterns, logistic regression, random forest analysis

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Authors: Yelbek B. Utepov, Assel T. Mukhamejanova, Aliya K. Aldungarova, Aida G. Nazarova, Sabit A. Karaulov, Nurgul T. Alibekova, Aigul K. Kozhas, Dias Kazhimkanuly, Akmaral K. Tleubayeva

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This research focuses on enhancing geotechnical surveying for foundation design through the spatial interpolation of intermediate soil properties. Traditional geotechnical practices rely on discrete data from borehole drilling, soil sampling, and laboratory analyses, often neglecting the continuous nature of soil properties and disregarding values in intermediate locations. This study challenges these omissions by emphasizing interpolation techniques such as Kriging, Inverse Distance Weighting, and Spline interpolation to capture the nuanced spatial variations in soil properties. The methodology is applied to geotechnical survey data from two construction sites in Astana, Kazakhstan, revealing continuous representations of Young's Modulus, Cohesion, and Friction Angle. The spatial heatmaps generated through interpolation offered valuable insights into the subsurface environment, highlighting heterogeneity and aiding in more informed foundation design decisions for considered cites. Moreover, intriguing patterns of heterogeneity, as well as visual clusters and transitions between soil classes, were explored within seemingly uniform layers. The study bridges the gap between discrete borehole samples and the continuous subsurface, contributing to the evolution of geotechnical engineering practices. The proposed approach, utilizing open-source software geographic information systems, provides a practical tool for visualizing soil characteristics and may pave the way for future advancements in geotechnical surveying and foundation design.

Keywords: soil mechanical properties, spatial interpolation, inverse distance weighting, heatmaps

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Authors: Apollinaire Barme, Simon Tamayo, Arthur Gaudron

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This paper presents a statistical approach to identify explanatory variables linearly related to e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology allows specifying a regression model in order to quantify the relevance between openly available data (economic and demographic) and national e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology consists in collecting data, preselecting input variables, performing regressions for choosing variables and models, testing and validating. The usefulness of the proposed approach is twofold: on the one hand, it allows identifying the variables that influence e- commerce sales with an accessible approach. And on the other hand, it can be used to model future sales from the input variables. Results show that e-commerce is linearly dependent on 11 economic and demographic indicators.

Keywords: e-commerce, statistical modeling, regression, empirical research

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Authors: R. Remya

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We consider an M/M/1 multiple variant vacation queueing system and working vacation with waiting server. Here, comparing considering three models. First model, working vacation is taken after the server has exhaustively served all the customers in the system and waits random amount of time. After completing a working vacation, the server will wait for a random period of time before going on vacation. Then it goes to finite number of vacations same way. After end of J th vacation server waits in busy or served immediately. Second model, working vacation is taken after the server has exhaustively served all the customers in the system and waits random amount of time. Third model, working vacation is taken after the server has exhaustively served all the customers in the system and waits random amount of time. It is expected that service times and vacation lengths are exponentially distributed . We provide a steady-state solution and cost comparison for the stated models.

Keywords: vacation, working vacation, waiting server, steady state analysis, cost analysis

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Authors: K. Raja Rajan, D. Nagarajan

Abstract:

Bored cast in-situ pile is a popular choice amongst consultant and contractor due to the ability to adjust the pile length suitably in case if any variation found in the actual geological strata. Bangladesh geological strata are dominated by silt content. Design is normally based on field test such as Standard Penetration test N-values. Initially, pile capacity estimated through static formula with co-relation of N-value and angle of internal friction. Initial pile load test was conducted in order to validate the geotechnical parameters assumed in design. Initial pile load test was conducted on 1.5m diameter bored cast in-situ pile. Kentledge method is used to load the pile for 2.5 times of its working load. Initially, safe working load of pile has been estimated as 570T, so test load is fixed to 1425T. Max load applied is 777T for which the settlement reached around 155mm which is more than 10% of diameter of piles. Pile load test results was not satisfactory and compelled to increase the pile length approximately 20% of its total length. Due to unpredictable geotechnical parameters, length of each pile has been increased which is having a major impact on the project cost and as well as in project schedule. Extra bore holes have been planned along with lab test results in order to redefine the assumed geotechnical parameters. This article presents detailed design assumptions of geotechnical parameters in the design stage and the results of pile load test which made to redefine the assumed geotechnical properties.

Keywords: end bearing, pile load test, settlement, shaft friction

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Authors: Fakhruddin Esa, Yusri Yusof

Abstract:

The confirmatory of Total Quality Management (TQM) implementation is most vital in quality management. This paper focuses on employees' perceptions towards TQM implementation in a local automotive company supplier. The objectives of this study are first and foremost to determine the perception of TQM implementation among the staff, and secondly to ascertain the correlation between the variables, and lastly to identify the relative influence of the 10 TQM variables on the cost of poor quality (COPQ). The TQM implementation is perceived to be moderate. All correlation is found to be significant and five variables having positively moderate to high correlation. Out of 10 variables, quality system improvement, reward and recognition and customer focus influence the perceived COPQ. This study extended a discussion on these three variables contribution to TQM in general and the human resource development in the organization. A significant recommendation to lowering costs of internal error, such as trouble shooting and scraps are also discussed. Certain components of further research that would add value to this study have also been suggested and perhaps could be implemented at policy-level initiatives.

Keywords: cost of poor quality (COPQ), correlation, total quality management (TQM), variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Chimezie P. Nnanwa, Thomas C. Urama, Patrick O. Ezepue

Abstract:

In this paper we use Random Matrix Theory to analyze the eigen-structure of the empirical correlations of 82 stocks which are consistently traded in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) over a 4-year study period 3 August 2009 to 26 August 2013. We apply the Marchenko-Pastur distribution of eigenvalues of a purely random matrix to investigate the presence of investment-pertinent information contained in the empirical correlation matrix of the selected stocks. We use hypothesised standard normal distribution of eigenvector components from RMT to assess deviations of the empirical eigenvectors to this distribution for different eigenvalues. We also use the Inverse Participation Ratio to measure the deviation of eigenvectors of the empirical correlation matrix from RMT results. These preliminary results on the dynamics of asset price correlations in the NSE are important for improving risk-return trade-offs associated with Markowitz’s portfolio optimization in the stock exchange, which is pursued in future work.

Keywords: correlation matrix, eigenvalue and eigenvector, inverse participation ratio, portfolio optimization, random matrix theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 311