Search results for: geostatistical prediction

Authors: Sakshi Dhumale, Madhushree C., Amba Shetty

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The effect of station density on the geostatistical prediction of groundwater levels is of critical importance to ensure accurate and reliable predictions. Monitoring station density directly impacts the accuracy and reliability of geostatistical predictions by influencing the model's ability to capture localized variations and small-scale features in groundwater levels. This is particularly crucial in regions with complex hydrogeological conditions and significant spatial heterogeneity. Insufficient station density can result in larger prediction uncertainties, as the model may struggle to adequately represent the spatial variability and correlation patterns of the data. On the other hand, an optimal distribution of monitoring stations enables effective coverage of the study area and captures the spatial variability of groundwater levels more comprehensively. In this study, we investigate the effect of station density on the predictive performance of groundwater levels using the geostatistical technique of Ordinary Kriging. The research utilizes groundwater level data collected from 121 observation wells within the semi-arid Berambadi watershed, gathered over a six-year period (2010-2015) from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru. The dataset is partitioned into seven subsets representing varying sampling densities, ranging from 15% (12 wells) to 100% (121 wells) of the total well network. The results obtained from different monitoring networks are compared against the existing groundwater monitoring network established by the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB). The findings of this study demonstrate that higher station densities significantly enhance the accuracy of geostatistical predictions for groundwater levels. The increased number of monitoring stations enables improved interpolation accuracy and captures finer-scale variations in groundwater levels. These results shed light on the relationship between station density and the geostatistical prediction of groundwater levels, emphasizing the importance of appropriate station densities to ensure accurate and reliable predictions. The insights gained from this study have practical implications for designing and optimizing monitoring networks, facilitating effective groundwater level assessments, and enabling sustainable management of groundwater resources.

Keywords: station density, geostatistical prediction, groundwater levels, monitoring networks, interpolation accuracy, spatial variability

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Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

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Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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Authors: Carlos Gonzales, Zaida Quiroz, Marcos Prates

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Several spatial variables collected at the same location that share a common spatial distribution can be modeled simultaneously through a multivariate geostatistical model that takes into account the correlation between these variables and the spatial autocorrelation. The main goal of this model is to perform spatial prediction of these variables in the region of study. Here we focus on a geostatistical multivariate formulation that relies on sharing common spatial random effect terms. In particular, the first response variable can be modeled by a mean that incorporates a shared random spatial effect, while the other response variables depend on this shared spatial term, in addition to specific random spatial effects. Each spatial random effect is defined through a Gaussian process with a valid covariance function, but in order to improve the computational efficiency when the data are large, each Gaussian process is approximated to a Gaussian random Markov field (GRMF), specifically to the block nearest neighbor Gaussian process (Block-NNGP). This approach involves dividing the spatial domain into several dependent blocks under certain constraints, where the cross blocks allow capturing the spatial dependence on a large scale, while each individual block captures the spatial dependence on a smaller scale. The multivariate geostatistical model belongs to the class of Latent Gaussian Models; thus, to achieve fast Bayesian inference, it is used the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through simulations and applications for massive data.

Keywords: Block-NNGP, geostatistics, gaussian process, GRMF, INLA, multivariate models.

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Authors: Francky Fouedjio

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Multivariate geostatistical data have become omnipresent in the geosciences and pose substantial analysis challenges. One of them is the grouping of data locations into spatially contiguous clusters so that data locations within the same cluster are more similar while clusters are different from each other, in some sense. Spatially contiguous clusters can significantly improve the interpretation that turns the resulting clusters into meaningful geographical subregions. In this paper, we develop an agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach that takes into account the spatial dependency between observations. It relies on a dissimilarity matrix built from a non-parametric kernel estimator of the spatial dependence structure of data. It integrates existing methods to find the optimal cluster number and to evaluate the contribution of variables to the clustering. The capability of the proposed approach to provide spatially compact, connected and meaningful clusters is assessed using bivariate synthetic dataset and multivariate geochemical dataset. The proposed clustering method gives satisfactory results compared to other similar geostatistical clustering methods.

Keywords: clustering, geostatistics, multivariate data, non-parametric

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Authors: Ekrem Canli, Thomas Glade

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The precise prediction of rainfall in space and time is a key element to most landslide early warning systems. Unfortunately, the spatial variability of rainfall in many early warning applications is often disregarded. A common simplification is to use uniformly distributed rainfall to characterize aerial rainfall intensity. With spatially differentiated rainfall information, real-time comparison with rainfall thresholds or the implementation in process-based approaches might form the basis for improved landslide warnings. This study suggests an automated workflow from the hourly, web-based collection of rain gauge data to the generation of spatially differentiated rainfall predictions based on kriging. Because the application of kriging is usually a labor intensive task, a simplified and consequently automated variogram modeling procedure was applied to up-to-date rainfall data. The entire workflow was carried out purely with open source technology. Validation results, albeit promising, pointed out the challenges that are involved in pure distance based, automated geostatistical interpolation techniques for ever-changing environmental phenomena over short temporal and spatial extent.

Keywords: kriging, landslide early warning system, spatial rainfall prediction, variogram modelling, web scraping

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Authors: Benbiao Song, Yan Gao, Zhuo Liu

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Geostatistical modeling is the key technic for reservoir characterization, the quality of geological models will influence the prediction of reservoir performance greatly, but few studies have been done to quantify the factors impacting geostatistical reservoir modeling accuracy. In this study, 16 fluvial prototype models have been established to represent different geological complexity, 6 cases range from 16 to 361 wells were defined to reproduce all those 16 prototype models by different methodologies including SIS, object-based and MPFS algorithms accompany with different constraint parameters. Modeling accuracy ratio was defined to quantify the influence of each factor, and ten realizations were averaged to represent each accuracy ratio under the same modeling condition and parameters association. Totally 5760 simulations were done to quantify the relative contribution of each factor to the simulation accuracy, and the results can be used as strategy guide for facies modeling in the similar condition. It is founded that data density, geological trend and geological complexity have great impact on modeling accuracy. Modeling accuracy may up to 90% when channel sand width reaches up to 1.5 times of well space under whatever condition by SIS and MPFS methods. When well density is low, the contribution of geological trend may increase the modeling accuracy from 40% to 70%, while the use of proper variogram may have very limited contribution for SIS method. It can be implied that when well data are dense enough to cover simple geobodies, few efforts were needed to construct an acceptable model, when geobodies are complex with insufficient data group, it is better to construct a set of robust geological trend than rely on a reliable variogram function. For object-based method, the modeling accuracy does not increase obviously as SIS method by the increase of data density, but kept rational appearance when data density is low. MPFS methods have the similar trend with SIS method, but the use of proper geological trend accompany with rational variogram may have better modeling accuracy than MPFS method. It implies that the geological modeling strategy for a real reservoir case needs to be optimized by evaluation of dataset, geological complexity, geological constraint information and the modeling objective.

Keywords: fluvial facies, geostatistics, geological trend, modeling strategy, modeling accuracy, variogram

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Authors: Dehni Abdellatif, Lounis Mourad

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The new approach of applied spatial geostatistics in materials sciences, agriculture accuracy, agricultural statistics, permitted an apprehension of managing and monitoring the water and groundwater qualities in a relationship with salt-affected soil. The anterior experiences concerning data acquisition, spatial-preparation studies on optical and multispectral data has facilitated the integration of correction models of electrical conductivity related with soils temperature (horizons of soils). For tomography apprehension, this physical parameter has been extracted from calibration of the thermal band (LANDSAT ETM+6) with a radiometric correction. Our study area is Oran region (Northern West of Algeria). Different spectral indices are determined such as salinity and sodicity index, the Combined Spectral Reflectance Index (CSRI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emissivity, Albedo, and Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR). The approach of geostatistical modeling of electrical conductivity (salinity), appears to be a useful decision support system for estimating corrected electrical resistivity related to the temperature of surface soils, according to the conversion models by substitution, the reference temperature at 25°C (where hydrochemical data are collected with this constraint). The Brightness temperatures extracted from satellite reflectance (LANDSAT ETM+) are used in consistency models to estimate electrical resistivity. The confusions that arise from the effects of salt stress and water stress removed followed by seasonal application of the geostatistical analysis in Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques investigation and monitoring the variation of the electrical conductivity in the alluvial aquifer of Es-Sénia for the salt-affected soil.

Keywords: geostatistical modelling, landsat, brightness temperature, conductivity

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Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir

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Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.

Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to developed an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: river flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation

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Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, molecular descriptors, machine learning, random forest

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

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In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: fault prediction, neural network, GM(1, 5) genetic algorithm, GBPGA

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Authors: S. K. Appiah, E. N. Aidoo, D. Asamoah Owusu, M. W. Nuonabuor

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Urbanization remains one of the unique predominant factors which is linked to the destruction of urban environment and its associated cases of soil contamination by heavy metals through the natural and anthropogenic activities. These activities are important sources of toxic heavy metals such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn). Often, these heavy metals lead to increased levels in some areas due to the impact of atmospheric deposition caused by their proximity to industrial plants or the indiscriminately burning of substances. Information gathered on potentially hazardous levels of these heavy metals in soils leads to establish serious health and urban agriculture implications. However, characterization of spatial variations of soil contamination by heavy metals in Ghana is limited. Kumasi is a Metropolitan city in Ghana, West Africa and is challenged with the recent spate of deteriorating soil quality due to rapid economic development and other human activities such as “Galamsey”, illegal mining operations within the metropolis. The paper seeks to use both univariate and multivariate geostatistical techniques to assess the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils and the potential risk associated with ingestion of sources of soil contamination in the Metropolis. Geostatistical tools have the ability to detect changes in correlation structure and how a good knowledge of the study area can help to explain the different scales of variation detected. To achieve this task, point referenced data on heavy metals measured from topsoil samples in a previous study, were collected at various locations. Linear models of regionalisation and coregionalisation were fitted to all experimental semivariograms to describe the spatial dependence between the topsoil heavy metals at different spatial scales, which led to ordinary kriging and cokriging at unsampled locations and production of risk maps of soil contamination by these heavy metals. Results obtained from both the univariate and multivariate semivariogram models showed strong spatial dependence with range of autocorrelations ranging from 100 to 300 meters. The risk maps produced show strong spatial heterogeneity for almost all the soil heavy metals with extremely risk of contamination found close to areas with commercial and industrial activities. Hence, ongoing pollution interventions should be geared towards these highly risk areas for efficient management of soil contamination to avert further pollution in the metropolis.

Keywords: coregionalization, heavy metals, multivariate geostatistical analysis, soil contamination, spatial distribution

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Authors: Jevonte Abioye, Dylan Savary

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The aim of this research is to present a disaggregated geostatistical analysis of the subnational provincial trends of child mortality variation in Zimbabwe from a child health policy perspective. Soon after gaining independence in 1980, the government embarked on efforts towards promoting equitable health care, namely through the provision of primary health care. Government intervention programmes brought hope and promise, but achieving equity in primary health care coverage was hindered by previous existing disparities in maternal health care disproportionately concentrated in urban settings to the detriment of rural communities. The article highlights policies and programs adopted by the government during the millennium development goals period between 1990-2015 as a response to the inequities that characterised the country’s maternal health care. A longitudinal comparative method for a spatial variation on child mortality rates across provinces is developed based on geostatistical analysis. Cross-sectional and time-series data was extracted from the World Health Organisation (WHO) global health observatory data repository, demographic health survey reports, and previous academic and technical publications. Results suggest that although health care policy was uniform across provinces, not all provinces received the same antenatal and perinatal services. Accordingly, provincial rates of child mortality growth between 1994 and 2015 varied significantly. Evidence on the trends of child mortality rates and maternal health policies in Zimbabwe can be valuable for public child health policy planning and public service delivery design both in Zimbabwe and across developing countries pursuing the sustainable development agenda.

Keywords: antenatal care, perinatal care, infant mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, millennium development goals, sustainable development agenda

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon

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With the advent of IPTV in the fierce competition with existing broadcasting system, it is emerged as an important issue to predict how much the adoption of IPTV service will be. This paper aims to suggest a prediction model for adopting IPTV using classification and Ranking Belief Simplex (CaRBS). A simplex plot method of representing data allows a clear visual representation to the degree of interaction of the support from the variables to the prediction of the objects. CaRBS is applied to the survey data on the IPTV adoption.

Keywords: prediction, adoption, IPTV, CaRBS

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Authors: Maurice Ntahobari, Levin Kuhlmann, Mario Boley, Zhinoos Razavi Hesabi

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For machine learning based epileptic seizure prediction, it is important for the model to be implemented in small implantable or wearable devices that can be used to monitor epilepsy patients; however, current state-of-the-art methods are complex and computationally intensive. We use Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to find relevant intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) features and improve the computational efficiency of a state-of-the-art seizure prediction method based on the extra trees classifier while maintaining prediction performance. Results for a small contest dataset and a much larger dataset with continuous recordings of up to 3 years per patient from 15 patients yield better than chance prediction performance (p < 0.004). Moreover, while the performance of the SHAP-based model is comparable to that of the benchmark, the overall training and prediction time of the model has been reduced by a factor of 1.83. It can also be noted that the feature called zero crossing value is the best EEG feature for seizure prediction. These results suggest state-of-the-art seizure prediction performance can be achieved using efficient methods based on optimal feature selection.

Keywords: machine learning, seizure prediction, extra tree classifier, SHAP, epilepsy

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Authors: Bin Wang, Yong Xu, Honggang Qu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao

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Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposit, and is one of the key technology of digital mine. The three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines the geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in three-dimensional environment with computer technology, and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provided scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

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Authors: Honggang Qu, Yong Xu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao, Bin Wang

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Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three-dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposits and is one of the key technology of digital mining. Three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in a three-dimensional environment with computer technology and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between the distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provides scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

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Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uni-axial tension, equi bi-axial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction

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