Search results for: financial inclusion no-frill account
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 6611

Search results for: financial inclusion no-frill account

311 Humanitarian Storytelling through Photographs with and for Resettled Refugees in Wellington

Authors: Ehsan K. Hazaveh

Abstract:

This research project explores creative methods of storytelling through photography to portray a vulnerable and marginalised community: former refugees living in Wellington, New Zealand. The project explores photographic representational techniques that can not only empower and give voice to those communities but also challenge dominant stereotypes about refugees and support humanitarian actions. The aims of this study are to develop insights surrounding issues associated with the photographic representation of refugees and to explore the collaborative construction of possible counter-narratives that might lead to the formulation of a practice framework for representing refugees using photography. In other words, the goal of this study is to explore representational and narrative strategies that frame refugees as active community members and as individuals with specific histories and expertise. These counter-narratives will bring the diversity of refugees to the surface by offering personal stories, contextualising their experience, raising awareness about the plight and human rights of the refugee community in New Zealand, evoking empathy and, therefore, facilitating the process of social change. The study has designed a photographic narrative framework by determining effective methods of photo storytelling, framing, and aesthetic techniques, focusing on different ways of taking, selecting, editing and curating photographs. Photo elicitation interviews have been used to ‘explore’, ‘produce’ and ‘co-curate’ the counter-narrative along with participants. Photo elicitation is a qualitative research method that employs images to evoke data in order to find out how other people experience their world - the researcher shows photographs to the participant and asks open-ended questions to get them to talk about their life experiences and the world around them. The qualitative data have been collected and produced through interactions with four former refugees living in Wellington, New Zealand. In this way, this project offers a unique account of their conditions and basic knowledge about their living experience and their stories. The participants of this study have engaged with PhotoVoice, a photo elicitation methodology that employs photography and storytelling, to share activities, emotions, hopes, and aspects of their lived experiences. PhotoVoice was designed to empower members of marginalised populations. It involves a series of meeting sessions, in which participants share photographs they have taken and discuss stories about the photographs to identify, represent, and enhance the issues important to their lives and communities. Finally, the data provide a basis for systematically producing visual counter-narratives that highlight the experiences of former- refugees. By employing these methods, refugees can represent their world as well as interpret it. The process of developing this research framing has enabled the development of powerful counter-narratives that challenge prevailing stereotypical depictions which in turn have the potential to shape improved humanitarian outcomes, shifts in public attitudes and political perspectives in New Zealand.

Keywords: media, photography, refugees, photo-elicitation, storytelling

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310 Examining the Influence of Firm Internal Level Factors on Performance Variations among Micro and Small Enterprises: Evidence from Tanzanian Agri-Food Processing Firms

Authors: Pulkeria Pascoe, Hawa P. Tundui, Marcia Dutra de Barcellos, Hans de Steur, Xavier Gellynck

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A majority of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) experience low or no growth. Understanding their performance remains unfinished and disjointed as there is no consensus on the factors influencing it, especially in developing countries. Using a Resource-Based View (RBV) as the theoretical background, this cross-sectional study employed four regression models to examine the influence of firm-level factors (firm-specific characteristics, firm resources, manager socio-demographic characteristics, and selected management practices) on the overall performance variations among 442 Tanzanian micro and small agri-food processing firms. Study results confirmed the RBV argument that intangible resources make a larger contribution to overall performance variations among firms than that tangible resources. Firms' tangible and intangible resources explained 34.5% of overall performance variations (intangible resources explained the overall performance variability by 19.4% compared to tangible resources, which accounted for 15.1%), ranking first in explaining the overall performance variance. Firm-specific characteristics ranked second by influencing variations in overall performance by 29.0%. Selected management practices ranked third (6.3%), while the manager's socio-demographic factors were last on the list, as they influenced the overall performance variability among firms by only 5.1%. The study also found that firms that focus on proper utilization of tangible resources (financial and physical), set targets, and undertake better working capital management practices performed higher than their counterparts (low and average performers). Furthermore, accumulation and proper utilization of intangible resources (relational, organizational, and reputational), undertaking performance monitoring practices, age of the manager, and the choice of the firm location and activity were the dominant significant factors influencing the variations among average and high performers, relative to low performers. The entrepreneurial background was a significant factor influencing variations in average and low-performing firms, indicating that entrepreneurial skills are crucial to achieving average levels of performance. Firm age, size, legal status, source of start-up capital, gender, education level, and total business experience of the manager were not statistically significant variables influencing the overall performance variations among the agri-food processors under the study. The study has identified both significant and non-significant factors influencing performance variations among low, average, and high-performing micro and small agri-food processing firms in Tanzania. Therefore, results from this study will help managers, policymakers and researchers to identify areas where more attention should be placed in order to improve overall performance of MSEs in agri-food industry.

Keywords: firm-level factors, micro and small enterprises, performance, regression analysis, resource-based-view

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309 Assessing Diagnostic and Evaluation Tools for Use in Urban Immunisation Programming: A Critical Narrative Review and Proposed Framework

Authors: Tim Crocker-Buque, Sandra Mounier-Jack, Natasha Howard

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Background: Due to both the increasing scale and speed of urbanisation, urban areas in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) host increasingly large populations of under-immunized children, with the additional associated risks of rapid disease transmission in high-density living environments. Multiple interdependent factors are associated with these coverage disparities in urban areas and most evidence comes from relatively few countries, e.g., predominantly India, Kenya, Nigeria, and some from Pakistan, Iran, and Brazil. This study aimed to identify, describe, and assess the main tools used to measure or improve coverage of immunisation services in poor urban areas. Methods: Authors used a qualitative review design, including academic and non-academic literature, to identify tools used to improve coverage of public health interventions in urban areas. Authors selected and extracted sources that provided good examples of specific tools, or categories of tools, used in a context relevant to urban immunization. Diagnostic (e.g., for data collection, analysis, and insight generation) and programme tools (e.g., for investigating or improving ongoing programmes) and interventions (e.g., multi-component or stand-alone with evidence) were selected for inclusion to provide a range of type and availability of relevant tools. These were then prioritised using a decision-analysis framework and a tool selection guide for programme managers developed. Results: Authors reviewed tools used in urban immunisation contexts and tools designed for (i) non-immunization and/or non-health interventions in urban areas, and (ii) immunisation in rural contexts that had relevance for urban areas (e.g., Reaching every District/Child/ Zone). Many approaches combined several tools and methods, which authors categorised as diagnostic, programme, and intervention. The most common diagnostic tools were cross-sectional surveys, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, secondary analysis of routine data, and geographical mapping of outcomes, resources, and services. Programme tools involved multiple stages of data collection, analysis, insight generation, and intervention planning and included guidance documents from WHO (World Health Organisation), UNICEF (United Nations Children's Fund), USAID (United States Agency for International Development), and governments, and articles reporting on diagnostics, interventions, and/or evaluations to improve urban immunisation. Interventions involved service improvement, education, reminder/recall, incentives, outreach, mass-media, or were multi-component. The main gaps in existing tools were an assessment of macro/policy-level factors, exploration of effective immunization communication channels, and measuring in/out-migration. The proposed framework uses a problem tree approach to suggest tools to address five common challenges (i.e. identifying populations, understanding communities, issues with service access and use, improving services, improving coverage) based on context and available data. Conclusion: This study identified many tools relevant to evaluating urban LMIC immunisation programmes, including significant crossover between tools. This was encouraging in terms of supporting the identification of common areas, but problematic as data volumes, instructions, and activities could overwhelm managers and tools are not always suitably applied to suitable contexts. Further research is needed on how best to combine tools and methods to suit local contexts. Authors’ initial framework can be tested and developed further.

Keywords: health equity, immunisation, low and middle-income countries, poverty, urban health

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308 Behavioral Patterns of Adopting Digitalized Services (E-Sport versus Sports Spectating) Using Agent-Based Modeling

Authors: Justyna P. Majewska, Szymon M. Truskolaski

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The growing importance of digitalized services in the so-called new economy, including the e-sports industry, can be observed recently. Various demographic or technological changes lead consumers to modify their needs, not regarding the services themselves but the method of their application (attracting customers, forms of payment, new content, etc.). In the case of leisure-related to competitive spectating activities, there is a growing need to participate in events whose content is not sports competitions but computer games challenge – e-sport. The literature in this area so far focuses on determining the number of e-sport fans with elements of a simple statistical description (mainly concerning demographic characteristics such as age, gender, place of residence). Meanwhile, the development of the industry is influenced by a combination of many different, intertwined demographic, personality and psychosocial characteristics of customers, as well as the characteristics of their environment. Therefore, there is a need for a deeper recognition of the determinants of the behavioral patterns upon selecting digitalized services by customers, which, in the absence of available large data sets, can be achieved by using econometric simulations – multi-agent modeling. The cognitive aim of the study is to reveal internal and external determinants of behavioral patterns of customers taking into account various variants of economic development (the pace of digitization and technological development, socio-demographic changes, etc.). In the paper, an agent-based model with heterogeneous agents (characteristics of customers themselves and their environment) was developed, which allowed identifying a three-stage development scenario: i) initial interest, ii) standardization, and iii) full professionalization. The probabilities regarding the transition process were estimated using the Method of Simulated Moments. The estimation of the agent-based model parameters and sensitivity analysis reveals crucial factors that have driven a rising trend in e-sport spectating and, in a wider perspective, the development of digitalized services. Among the psychosocial characteristics of customers, they are the level of familiarization with the rules of games as well as sports disciplines, active and passive participation history and individual perception of challenging activities. Environmental factors include general reception of games, number and level of recognition of community builders and the level of technological development of streaming as well as community building platforms. However, the crucial factor underlying the good predictive power of the model is the level of professionalization. While in the initial interest phase, the entry barriers for new customers are high. They decrease during the phase of standardization and increase again in the phase of full professionalization when new customers perceive participation history inaccessible. In this case, they are prone to switch to new methods of service application – in the case of e-sport vs. sports to new content and more modern methods of its delivery. In a wider context, the findings in the paper support the idea of a life cycle of services regarding methods of their application from “traditional” to digitalized.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, digitalized services, e-sport, spectators motives

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307 Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Electricity and Hydrogen Production in an Urban Environment

Authors: Same Noel Ngando, Yakub Abdulfatai Olatunji

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Renewable energy micro-grids, such as those powered by solar or wind energy, are often intermittent in nature. This means that the amount of energy generated by these systems can vary depending on weather conditions or other factors, which can make it difficult to ensure a steady supply of power. To address this issue, energy storage systems have been developed to increase the reliability of renewable energy micro-grids. Battery systems have been the dominant energy storage technology for renewable energy micro-grids. Batteries can store large amounts of energy in a relatively small and compact package, making them easy to install and maintain in a micro-grid setting. Additionally, batteries can be quickly charged and discharged, allowing them to respond quickly to changes in energy demand. However, the process involved in recycling batteries is quite costly and difficult. An alternative energy storage system that is gaining popularity is hydrogen storage. Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that can be produced from renewable energy sources such as solar or wind. It can be stored in large quantities at low cost, making it suitable for long-distance mass storage. Unlike batteries, hydrogen does not degrade over time, so it can be stored for extended periods without the need for frequent maintenance or replacement, allowing it to be used as a backup power source when the micro-grid is not generating enough energy to meet demand. When hydrogen is needed, it can be converted back into electricity through a fuel cell. Energy consumption data is got from a particular residential area in Daegu, South Korea, and the data is processed and analyzed. From the analysis, the total energy demand is calculated, and different hybrid energy system configurations are designed using HOMER Pro (Hybrid Optimization for Multiple Energy Resources) and MATLAB software. A techno-economic and environmental comparison and life cycle assessment (LCA) of the different configurations using battery and hydrogen as storage systems are carried out. The various scenarios included PV-hydrogen-grid system, PV-hydrogen-grid-wind, PV-hydrogen-grid-biomass, PV-hydrogen-wind, PV-hydrogen-biomass, biomass-hydrogen, wind-hydrogen, PV-battery-grid-wind, PV- battery -grid-biomass, PV- battery -wind, PV- battery -biomass, and biomass- battery. From the analysis, the least cost system for the location was the PV-hydrogen-grid system, with a net present cost of about USD 9,529,161. Even though all scenarios were environmentally friendly, taking into account the recycling cost and pollution involved in battery systems, all systems with hydrogen as a storage system produced better results. In conclusion, hydrogen is becoming a very prominent energy storage solution for renewable energy micro-grids. It is easier to store compared with electric power, so it is suitable for long-distance mass storage. Hydrogen storage systems have several advantages over battery systems, including flexibility, long-term stability, and low environmental impact. The cost of hydrogen storage is still relatively high, but it is expected to decrease as more hydrogen production, and storage infrastructure is built. With the growing focus on renewable energy and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, hydrogen is expected to play an increasingly important role in the energy storage landscape.

Keywords: renewable energy systems, microgrid, hydrogen production, energy storage systems

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306 Evaluation of Redundancy Architectures Based on System on Chip Internal Interfaces for Future Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Flight Control Computer

Authors: Sebastian Hiergeist

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It is a common view that Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) tend to migrate into the civil airspace. This trend is challenging UAV manufacturer in plenty ways, as there come up a lot of new requirements and functional aspects. On the higher application levels, this might be collision detection and avoidance and similar features, whereas all these functions only act as input for the flight control components of the aircraft. The flight control computer (FCC) is the central component when it comes up to ensure a continuous safe flight and landing. As these systems are flight critical, they have to be built up redundantly to be able to provide a Fail-Operational behavior. Recent architectural approaches of FCCs used in UAV systems are often based on very simple microprocessors in combination with proprietary Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) or Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) extensions implementing the whole redundancy functionality. In the future, such simple microprocessors may not be available anymore as they are more and more replaced by higher sophisticated System on Chip (SoC). As the avionic industry cannot provide enough market power to significantly influence the development of new semiconductor products, the use of solutions from foreign markets is almost inevitable. Products stemming from the industrial market developed according to IEC 61508, or automotive SoCs, according to ISO 26262, can be seen as candidates as they have been developed for similar environments. Current available SoC from the industrial or automotive sector provides quite a broad selection of interfaces like, i.e., Ethernet, SPI or FlexRay, that might come into account for the implementation of a redundancy network. In this context, possible network architectures shall be investigated which could be established by using the interfaces stated above. Of importance here is the avoidance of any single point of failures, as well as a proper segregation in distinct fault containment regions. The performed analysis is supported by the use of guidelines, published by the aviation authorities (FAA and EASA), on the reliability of data networks. The main focus clearly lies on the reachable level of safety, but also other aspects like performance and determinism play an important role and are considered in the research. Due to the further increase in design complexity of recent and future SoCs, also the risk of design errors, which might lead to common mode faults, increases. Thus in the context of this work also the aspect of dissimilarity will be considered to limit the effect of design errors. To achieve this, the work is limited to broadly available interfaces available in products from the most common silicon manufacturer. The resulting work shall support the design of future UAV FCCs by giving a guideline on building up a redundancy network between SoCs, solely using on board interfaces. Therefore the author will provide a detailed usability analysis on available interfaces provided by recent SoC solutions, suggestions on possible redundancy architectures based on these interfaces and an assessment of the most relevant characteristics of the suggested network architectures, like e.g. safety or performance.

Keywords: redundancy, System-on-Chip, UAV, flight control computer (FCC)

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305 Processing of Flexible Dielectric Nanocomposites Using Nanocellulose and Recycled Alum Sludge for Wearable Technology Applications

Authors: D. Sun, L. Saw, A. Onyianta, D. O’Rourke, Z. Lu, C. See, C. Wilson, C. Popescu, M. Dorris

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With the rapid development of wearable technology (e.g., smartwatch, activity trackers and health monitor devices), flexible dielectric materials with environmental-friendly, low-cost and high-energy efficiency characteristics are in increasing demand. In this work, a flexible dielectric nanocomposite was processed by incorporating two components: cellulose nanofibrils and alum sludge in a polymer matrix. The two components were used in the reinforcement phase as well as for enhancing the dielectric properties; they were processed using waste materials that would otherwise be disposed to landfills. Alum sludge is a by-product of the water treatment process in which aluminum sulfate is prevalently used as the primary coagulant. According to the data from a project partner-Scottish Water: there are approximately 10k tons of alum sludge generated as a waste from the water treatment work to be landfilled every year in Scotland. The industry has been facing escalating financial and environmental pressure to develop more sustainable strategies to deal with alum sludge wastes. In the available literature, some work on reusing alum sludge has been reported (e.g., aluminum recovery or agriculture and land reclamation). However, little work can be found in applying it to processing energy materials (e.g., dielectrics) for enhanced energy density and efficiency. The alum sludge was collected directly from a water treatment plant of Scottish Water and heat-treated and refined before being used in preparing composites. Cellulose nanofibrils were derived from water hyacinth, an invasive aquatic weed that causes significant ecological issues in tropical regions. The harvested water hyacinth was dried and processed using a cost-effective method, including a chemical extraction followed by a homogenization process in order to extract cellulose nanofibrils. Biodegradable elastomer polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) was used as the polymer matrix and the nanocomposites were processed by casting raw materials in Petri dishes. The processed composites were characterized using various methods, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), rheological analysis, thermogravimetric and X-ray diffraction analysis. The SEM result showed that cellulose nanofibrils of approximately 20nm in diameter and 100nm in length were obtained and the alum sludge particles were of approximately 200um in diameters. The TGA/DSC analysis result showed that a weight loss of up to 48% can be seen in the raw material of alum sludge and its crystallization process has been started at approximately 800°C. This observation coincides with the XRD result. Other experiments also showed that the composites exhibit comprehensive mechanical and dielectric performances. This work depicts that it is a sustainable practice of reusing such waste materials in preparing flexible, lightweight and miniature dielectric materials for wearable technology applications.

Keywords: cellulose, biodegradable, sustainable, alum sludge, nanocomposite, wearable technology, dielectric

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304 The Political Economy of Media Privatisation in Egypt: State Mechanisms and Continued Control

Authors: Mohamed Elmeshad

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During the mid-1990's Egypt had become obliged to implement the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program that included broad economic liberalization, expansion of the private sector and a contraction the size of government spending. This coincided as well with attempts to appear more democratic and open to liberalizing public space and discourse. At the same time, economic pressures and the proliferation of social media access and activism had led to increased pressure to open a mediascape and remove it from the clutches of the government, which had monopolized print and broadcast mass media for over 4 decades by that point. However, the mechanisms that governed the privatization of mass media allowed for sustained government control, even through the prism of ostensibly privately owned newspapers and television stations. These mechanisms involve barriers to entry from a financial and security perspective, as well as operational capacities of distribution and access to means of production. The power dynamics between mass media establishments and the state were moulded during this period in a novel way. Power dynamics within media establishments had also formed under such circumstances. The changes in the country's political economy itself somehow mirrored these developments. This paper will examine these dynamics and shed light on the political economy of Egypt's newly privatized mass media in the early 2000's especially. Methodology: This study will rely on semi-structured interviews from individuals involved with these changes from the perspective of the media organizations. It also will map out the process of media privatization by looking at the administrative, operative and legislative institutions and contexts in order to attempt to draw conclusions on methods of control and the role of the state during the process of privatization. Finally, a brief discourse analysis will be necessary in order to aptly convey how these factors ultimately reflected on media output. Findings and conclusion: The development of Egyptian private, “independent” mirrored the trajectory of transitions in the country’s political economy. Liberalization of the economy meant that a growing class of business owners would explore opportunities that such new markets would offer. However the regime’s attempts to control access to certain forms of capital, especially in sectors such as the media affected the structure of print and broadcast media, as well as the institutions that would govern them. Like the process of liberalisation, much of the regime’s manoeuvring with regards to privatization of media had been haphazardly used to indirectly expand the regime and its ruling party’s ability to retain influence, while creating a believable façade of openness. In this paper, we will attempt to uncover these mechanisms and analyse our findings in ways that explain how the manifestations prevalent in the context of a privatizing media space in a transitional Egypt provide evidence of both the intentions of this transition, and the ways in which it was being held back.

Keywords: business, mass media, political economy, power, privatisation

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303 Multi-Criteria Decision Making Network Optimization for Green Supply Chains

Authors: Bandar A. Alkhayyal

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Modern supply chains are typically linear, transforming virgin raw materials into products for end consumers, who then discard them after use to landfills or incinerators. Nowadays, there are major efforts underway to create a circular economy to reduce non-renewable resource use and waste. One important aspect of these efforts is the development of Green Supply Chain (GSC) systems which enables a reverse flow of used products from consumers back to manufacturers, where they can be refurbished or remanufactured, to both economic and environmental benefit. This paper develops novel multi-objective optimization models to inform GSC system design at multiple levels: (1) strategic planning of facility location and transportation logistics; (2) tactical planning of optimal pricing; and (3) policy planning to account for potential valuation of GSC emissions. First, physical linear programming was applied to evaluate GSC facility placement by determining the quantities of end-of-life products for transport from candidate collection centers to remanufacturing facilities while satisfying cost and capacity criteria. Second, disassembly and remanufacturing processes have received little attention in industrial engineering and process cost modeling literature. The increasing scale of remanufacturing operations, worth nearly $50 billion annually in the United States alone, have made GSC pricing an important subject of research. A non-linear physical programming model for optimization of pricing policy for remanufactured products that maximizes total profit and minimizes product recovery costs were examined and solved. Finally, a deterministic equilibrium model was used to determine the effects of internalizing a cost of GSC greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into optimization models. Changes in optimal facility use, transportation logistics, and pricing/profit margins were all investigated against a variable cost of carbon, using case study system created based on actual data from sites in the Boston area. As carbon costs increase, the optimal GSC system undergoes several distinct shifts in topology as it seeks new cost-minimal configurations. A comprehensive study of quantitative evaluation and performance of the model has been done using orthogonal arrays. Results were compared to top-down estimates from economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) models, to contrast remanufacturing GHG emission quantities with those from original equipment manufacturing operations. Introducing a carbon cost of $40/t CO2e increases modeled remanufacturing costs by 2.7% but also increases original equipment costs by 2.3%. The assembled work advances the theoretical modeling of optimal GSC systems and presents a rare case study of remanufactured appliances.

Keywords: circular economy, extended producer responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, industrial ecology, low carbon logistics, green supply chains

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302 Ultrasonic Atomizer for Turbojet Engines

Authors: Aman Johri, Sidhant Sood, Pooja Suresh

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This paper suggests a new and more efficient method of atomization of fuel in a combustor nozzle of a high bypass turbofan engine, using ultrasonic vibrations. Since atomization of fuel just before the fuel spray is injected into the combustion chamber is an important and crucial aspect related to functioning of a propulsion system, the technology suggested by this paper and the experimental analysis on the system components eventually proves to assist in complete and rapid combustion of the fuel in the combustor module of the engine. Current propulsion systems use carburetors, atomization nozzles and apertures in air intake pipes for atomization. The idea of this paper is to deploy new age hybrid technology, namely the Ultrasound Field Effect (UFE) to effectively atomize fuel before it enters the combustion chamber, as a viable and effective method to increase efficiency and improve upon existing designs. The Ultrasound Field Effect is applied axially, on diametrically opposite ends of an atomizer tube that gloves onto the combustor nozzle, where the fuel enters and exits under a pre-defined pressure. The Ultrasound energy vibrates the fuel particles to a breakup frequency. At reaching this frequency, the fuel particles start disintegrating into smaller diameter particles perpendicular to the axis of application of the field from the parent boundary layer of fuel flow over the baseplate. These broken up fuel droplets then undergo swirling effect as per the original nozzle design, with a higher breakup ratio than before. A significant reduction of the size of fuel particles eventually results in an increment in the propulsive efficiency of the engine. Moreover, the Ultrasound atomizer operates within a control frequency such that effects of overheating and induced vibrations are least felt on the overall performance of the engine. The design of an electrical manifold for the multiple-nozzle system over a typical can-annular combustor is developed along with this study, such that the product can be installed and removed easily for maintenance and repairing, can allow for easy access for inspections and transmits least amount of vibrational energy to the surface of the combustor. Since near-field ultrasound is used, the vibrations are easily controlled, thereby successfully reducing vibrations on the outer shell of the combustor. Experimental analysis is carried out on the effect of ultrasonic vibrations on flowing jet turbine fuel using an ultrasound generator probe and results of an effective decrease in droplet size across a constant diameter, away from the boundary layer of flow is noted using visual aid by observing under ultraviolet light. The choice of material for the Ultrasound inducer tube and crystal along with the operating range of temperatures, pressures, and frequencies of the Ultrasound field effect are also studied in this paper, while taking into account the losses incurred due to constant vibrations and thermal loads on the tube surface.

Keywords: atomization, ultrasound field effect, titanium mesh, breakup frequency, parent boundary layer, baseplate, propulsive efficiency, jet turbine fuel, induced vibrations

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301 Navigating States of Emergency: A Preliminary Comparison of Online Public Reaction to COVID-19 and Monkeypox on Twitter

Authors: Antonia Egli, Theo Lynn, Pierangelo Rosati, Gary Sinclair

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The World Health Organization (WHO) defines vaccine hesitancy as the postponement or complete denial of vaccines and estimates a direct linkage to approximately 1.5 million avoidable deaths annually. This figure is not immune to public health developments, as has become evident since the global spread of COVID-19 from Wuhan, China in early 2020. Since then, the proliferation of influential, but oftentimes inaccurate, outdated, incomplete, or false vaccine-related information on social media has impacted hesitancy levels to a degree described by the WHO as an infodemic. The COVID-19 pandemic and related vaccine hesitancy levels have in 2022 resulted in the largest drop in childhood vaccinations of the 21st century, while the prevalence of online stigma towards vaccine hesitant consumers continues to grow. Simultaneously, a second disease has risen to global importance: Monkeypox is an infection originating from west and central Africa and, due to racially motivated online hate, was in August 2022 set to be renamed by the WHO. To better understand public reactions towards two viral infections that became global threats to public health no two years apart, this research examines user replies to threads published by the WHO on Twitter. Replies to two Tweets from the @WHO account declaring COVID-19 and Monkeypox as ‘public health emergencies of international concern’ on January 30, 2020, and July 23, 2022, are gathered using the Twitter application programming interface and user mention timeline endpoint. Research methodology is unique in its analysis of stigmatizing, racist, and hateful content shared on social media within the vaccine discourse over the course of two disease outbreaks. Three distinct analyses are conducted to provide insight into (i) the most prevalent topics and sub-topics among user reactions, (ii) changes in sentiment towards the spread of the two diseases, and (iii) the presence of stigma, racism, and online hate. Findings indicate an increase in hesitancy to accept further vaccines and social distancing measures, the presence of stigmatizing content aimed primarily at anti-vaccine cohorts and racially motivated abusive messages, and a prevalent fatigue towards disease-related news overall. This research provides value to non-profit organizations or government agencies associated with vaccines and vaccination programs in emphasizing the need for public health communication fitted to consumers' vaccine sentiments, levels of health information literacy, and degrees of trust towards public health institutions. Considering the importance of addressing fears among the vaccine hesitant, findings also illustrate the risk of alienation through stigmatization, lead future research in probing the relatively underexamined field of online, vaccine-related stigma, and discuss the potential effects of stigma towards vaccine hesitant Twitter users in their decisions to vaccinate.

Keywords: social marketing, social media, public health communication, vaccines

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300 Motives for Reshoring from China to Europe: A Hierarchical Classification of Companies

Authors: Fabienne Fel, Eric Griette

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Reshoring, whether concerning back-reshoring or near-reshoring, is a quite recent phenomenon. Despite the economic and political interest of this topic, academic research questioning determinants of reshoring remains rare. Our paper aims at contributing to fill this gap. In order to better understand the reasons for reshoring, we conducted a study among 280 French firms during spring 2016, three-quarters of which sourced, or source, in China. 105 firms in the sample have reshored all or part of their Chinese production or supply in recent years, and we aimed to establish a typology of the motives that drove them to this decision. We asked our respondents about the history of their Chinese supplies, their current reshoring strategies, and their motivations. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 22 and SPAD 8. Our results show that change in commercial and financial terms with China is the first motive explaining the current reshoring movement from this country (it applies to 54% of our respondents). A change in corporate strategy is the second motive (30% of our respondents); the reshoring decision follows a change in companies’ strategies (upgrading, implementation of a CSR policy, or a 'lean management' strategy). The third motive (14% of our sample) is a mere correction of the initial offshoring decision, considered as a mistake (under-estimation of hidden costs, non-quality and non-responsiveness problems). Some authors emphasize that developing a short supply chain, involving geographic proximity between design and production, gives a competitive advantage to companies wishing to offer innovative products. Admittedly 40% of our respondents indicate that this motive could have played a part in their decision to reshore, but this reason was not enough for any of them and is not an intrinsic motive leading to leaving Chinese suppliers. Having questioned our respondents about the importance given to various problems leading them to reshore, we then performed a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), associated with an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), based on Ward criterion, so as to point out more specific motivations. Three main classes of companies should be distinguished: -The 'Cost Killers' (23% of the sample), which reshore their supplies from China only because of higher procurement costs and so as to find lower costs elsewhere. -The 'Realists' (50% of the sample), giving equal weight or importance to increasing procurement costs in China and to the quality of their supplies (to a large extend). Companies being part of this class tend to take advantage of this changing environment to change their procurement strategy, seeking suppliers offering better quality and responsiveness. - The 'Voluntarists' (26% of the sample), which choose to reshore their Chinese supplies regardless of higher Chinese costs, to obtain better quality and greater responsiveness. We emphasize that if the main driver for reshoring from China is indeed higher local costs, it is should not be regarded as an exclusive motivation; 77% of the companies in the sample, are also seeking, sometimes exclusively, more reactive suppliers, liable to quality, respect for the environment and intellectual property.

Keywords: China, procurement, reshoring, strategy, supplies

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299 Challenges and Recommendations for Medical Device Tracking and Traceability in Singapore: A Focus on Nursing Practices

Authors: Zhuang Yiwen

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The paper examines the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. One of the major challenges identified is the lack of a standard coding system for medical devices, which makes it difficult to track them effectively. The paper suggests the use of the Unique Device Identifier (UDI) as a single standard for medical devices to improve tracking and reduce errors. The paper also explores the use of barcoding and image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. In nursing practices, the use of barcodes for identifying medical devices is common. However, the information contained in these barcodes is often inconsistent, making it challenging to identify which segment contains the model identifier. Moreover, the use of barcodes may be improved with the use of UDI, but many subsidized accessories may still lack barcodes. The paper suggests that the readiness for UDI and barcode standardization requires standardized information, fields, and logic in electronic medical record (EMR), operating theatre (OT), and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. Nursing workflow and data flow also need to be taken into account. The paper also explores the use of image recognition, specifically the Tesseract OCR engine, to identify and document implants in public hospitals due to limitations in barcode scanning. The study found that the solution requires an implant information database and checking output against the database. The solution also requires customization of the algorithm, cropping out objects affecting text recognition, and applying adjustments. The solution requires additional resources and costs for a mobile/hardware device, which may pose space constraints and require maintenance of sterile criteria. The integration with EMR is also necessary, and the solution require changes in the user's workflow. The paper suggests that the long-term use of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) as a supporting terminology to improve clinical documentation and data exchange in healthcare. SNOMED CT provides a standardized way of documenting and sharing clinical information with respect to procedure, patient and device documentation, which can facilitate interoperability and data exchange. In conclusion, the paper highlights the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. The paper suggests the use of UDI and barcode standardization to improve tracking and reduce errors. It also explores the use of image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. The paper emphasizes the importance of standardized information, fields, and logic in EMR, OT, and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. These recommendations could help the Singapore healthcare system to improve tracking and traceability of medical devices and ultimately enhance patient safety.

Keywords: medical device tracking, unique device identifier, barcoding and image recognition, systematized nomenclature of medicine clinical terms

Procedia PDF Downloads 44
298 Gamification Beyond Competition: the Case of DPG Lab Collaborative Learning Program for High-School Girls by GameLab KBTU and UNICEF in Kazakhstan

Authors: Nazym Zhumabayeva, Aleksandr Mezin, Alexandra Knysheva

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Women's underrepresentation in STEM is critical, worsened by ineffective engagement in educational practices. UNICEF Kazakhstan and GameLab KBTU's collaborative initiatives aim to enhance female STEM participation by fostering an inclusive environment. Learning from LEVEL UP's 2023 program, which featured a hackathon, the 2024 strategy pivots towards non-competitive gamification. Although the data from last year's project showed higher than average student engagement, observations and in-depth interviews with participants showed that the format was stressful for the girls, making them focus on points rather than on other values. This study presents a gamified educational system, DPG Lab, aimed at incentivizing young women's participation in STEM through the development of digital public goods (DPGs). By prioritizing collaborative gamification elements, the project seeks to create an inclusive learning environment that increases engagement and interest in STEM among young women. The DPG Lab aims to find a solution to minimize competition and support collaboration. The project is designed to motivate female participants towards the development of digital solutions through an introduction to the concept of DPGs. It consists of a short online course, a simulation videogame, and a real-time online quest with an offline finale at the KBTU campus. The online course offers short video lectures on open-source development and DPG standards. The game facilitates the practical application of theoretical knowledge, enriching the learning experience. Learners can also participate in a quest that encourages participants to develop DPG ideas in teams by choosing missions throughout the quest path. At the offline quest finale, the participants will meet in person to exchange experiences and accomplishments without engaging in comparative assessments: the quest ensures that each team’s trajectory is distinct by design. This marks a shift from competitive hackathons to a collaborative format, recognizing the unique contributions and achievements of each participant. The pilot batch of students is scheduled to commence in April 2024, with the finale anticipated in June. It is projected that this group will comprise 50 female high-school students from various regions across Kazakhstan. Expected outcomes include increased engagement and interest in STEM fields among young female participants, positive emotional and psychological impact through an emphasis on collaborative learning environments, and improved understanding and skills in DPG development. GameLab KBTU intends to undertake a hypothesis evaluation, employing a methodology similar to that utilized in the preceding LEVEL UP project. This approach will encompass the compilation of quantitative metrics (conversion funnels, test results, and surveys) and qualitative data from in-depth interviews and observational studies. For comparative analysis, a select group of participants from the previous year's project will be recruited to engage in the DPG Lab. By developing and implementing a gamified framework that emphasizes inclusion, engagement, and collaboration, the study seeks to provide practical knowledge about effective gamification strategies for promoting gender diversity in STEM. The expected outcomes of this initiative can contribute to the broader discussion on gamification in education and gender equality in STEM by offering a replicable and scalable model for similar interventions around the world.

Keywords: collaborative learning, competitive learning, digital public goods, educational gamification, emerging regions, STEM, underprivileged groups

Procedia PDF Downloads 23
297 The Temperature Degradation Process of Siloxane Polymeric Coatings

Authors: Andrzej Szewczak

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Study of the effect of high temperatures on polymer coatings represents an important field of research of their properties. Polymers, as materials with numerous features (chemical resistance, ease of processing and recycling, corrosion resistance, low density and weight) are currently the most widely used modern building materials, among others in the resin concrete, plastic parts, and hydrophobic coatings. Unfortunately, the polymers have also disadvantages, one of which decides about their usage - low resistance to high temperatures and brittleness. This applies in particular thin and flexible polymeric coatings applied to other materials, such a steel and concrete, which degrade under varying thermal conditions. Research about improvement of this state includes methods of modification of the polymer composition, structure, conditioning conditions, and the polymerization reaction. At present, ways are sought to reflect the actual environmental conditions, in which the coating will be operating after it has been applied to other material. These studies are difficult because of the need for adopting a proper model of the polymer operation and the determination of phenomena occurring at the time of temperature fluctuations. For this reason, alternative methods are being developed, taking into account the rapid modeling and the simulation of the actual operating conditions of polymeric coating’s materials in real conditions. The nature of a duration is typical for the temperature influence in the environment. Studies typically involve the measurement of variation one or more physical and mechanical properties of such coating in time. Based on these results it is possible to determine the effects of temperature loading and develop methods affecting in the improvement of coatings’ properties. This paper contains a description of the stability studies of silicone coatings deposited on the surface of a ceramic brick. The brick’s surface was hydrophobized by two types of inorganic polymers: nano-polymer preparation based on dialkyl siloxanes (Series 1 - 5) and an aqueous solution of the silicon (series 6 - 10). In order to enhance the stability of the film formed on the brick’s surface and immunize it to variable temperature and humidity loading, the nano silica was added to the polymer. The right combination of the polymer liquid phase and the solid phase of nano silica was obtained by disintegration of the mixture by the sonification. The changes of viscosity and surface tension of polymers were defined, which are the basic rheological parameters affecting the state and the durability of the polymer coating. The coatings created on the brick’s surfaces were then subjected to a temperature loading of 100° C and moisture by total immersion in water, in order to determine any water absorption changes caused by damages and the degradation of the polymer film. The effect of moisture and temperature was determined by measurement (at specified number of cycles) of changes in the surface hardness (using a Vickers’ method) and the absorption of individual samples. As a result, on the basis of the obtained results, the degradation process of polymer coatings related to their durability changes in time was determined.

Keywords: silicones, siloxanes, surface hardness, temperature, water absorption

Procedia PDF Downloads 217
296 Parents as a Determinant for Students' Attitudes and Intentions toward Higher Education

Authors: Anna Öqvist, Malin Malmström

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Attaining a higher level of education has become an increasingly important prerequisite for people’s economic and social independence and mobility. Young people who do not pursue higher education are not as attractive as potential employees in the modern work environment. Although completing a higher education degree is not a guarantee for getting a job, it substantially increases the chances for employment and, consequently, the chances for a better life. Despite this, it’s a fact that in several regions in Sweden, fewer students are choosing to engage in higher education. Similar trends have been emphasized in, for instance, the US where high dropout patterns among young people have been noted. This is a threat to future employment and industry development in these regions because the future employment base for society is dependent upon students’ willingness to invest in higher education. Much of prior studies have focused on the role of parents’ involvement in their children’s’ school work and the positive influence parents involvement have on their children’s school performance. Parental influence on education in general has been a topic of interest among those concerned with optimal developmental and educational outcomes for children and youth in pre-, secondary- and high school. Across a range of studies, there has emerged a strong conclusion that parental influence on child and youths education generally benefits children's and youths learning and school success. Arguably then, we could expect that parents influence on whether or not to pursue a higher education would be of importance to understand young people’s choice to engage in higher education. Accordingly, understanding what drives students’ intentions to pursue higher education is an essential component of motivating students to aspire to make the most of their potential in their future work life. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior, this study examines the role of parents influence on students’ attitudes about whether higher education can be beneficial to their future work life. We used a qualitative approach by collecting interview data from 18 high school students in Sweden to capture students’ cognitive and motivational mechanisms (attitudes) to influence intentions to engage in higher education. We found that parents may positively or negatively influence students’ attitudes and subsequently a student's intention to pursue higher education. Accordingly, our results show that parents’ own attitudes and expectations on their children are keys for influencing students’ attitudes and intentions for higher education. Further, our finding illuminates the mechanisms that drive students in one direction or the other. As such, our findings show that the same categories of arguments are used for driving students’ attitudes and intentions in two opposite directions, namely; financial arguments and work life benefits arguments. Our results contribute to existing literature by showing that parents do affect young people’s intentions to engage in higher studies. The findings contribute to the theory of planned behavior and have implications for the literature on higher education and educational psychology and also provide guidance on how to inform students about facts of higher studies in school.

Keywords: higher studies, intentions, parents influence, theory of planned behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 228
295 The Impact of Inconclusive Results of Thin Layer Chromatography for Marijuana Analysis and It’s Implication on Forensic Laboratory Backlog

Authors: Ana Flavia Belchior De Andrade

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Forensic laboratories all over the world face a great challenge to overcame waiting time and backlog in many different areas. Many aspects contribute to this situation, such as an increase in drug complexity, increment in the number of exams requested and cuts in funding limiting laboratories hiring capacity. Altogether, those facts pose an essential challenge for forensic chemistry laboratories to keep both quality and time of response within an acceptable period. In this paper we will analyze how the backlog affects test results and, in the end, the whole judicial system. In this study data from marijuana samples seized by the Federal District Civil Police in Brazil between the years 2013 and 2017 were tabulated and the results analyzed and discussed. In the last five years, the number of petitioned exams increased from 822 in February 2013 to 1358 in March 2018, representing an increase of 32% in 5 years, a rise of more than 6% per year. Meanwhile, our data shows that the number of performed exams did not grow at the same rate. Product numbers are stationed as using the actual technology scenario and analyses routine the laboratory is running in full capacity. Marijuana detection is the most prevalence exam required, representing almost 70% of all exams. In this study, data from 7,110 (seven thousand one hundred and ten) marijuana samples were analyzed. Regarding waiting time, most of the exams were performed not later than 60 days after receipt (77%). Although some samples waited up to 30 months before being examined (0,65%). When marijuana´s exam is delayed we notice the enlargement of inconclusive results using thin-layer chromatography (TLC). Our data shows that if a marijuana sample is stored for more than 18 months, inconclusive results rise from 2% to 7% and when if storage exceeds 30 months, inconclusive rates increase to 13%. This is probably because Cannabis plants and preparations undergo oxidation under storage resulting in a decrease in the content of Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol ( Δ9-THC). An inconclusive result triggers other procedures that require at least two more working hours of our analysts (e.g., GC/MS analysis) and the report would be delayed at least one day. Those new procedures increase considerably the running cost of a forensic drug laboratory especially when the backlog is significant as inconclusive results tend to increase with waiting time. Financial aspects are not the only ones to be observed regarding backlog cases; there are also social issues as legal procedures can be delayed and prosecution of serious crimes can be unsuccessful. Delays may slow investigations and endanger public safety by giving criminals more time on the street to re-offend. This situation also implies a considerable cost to society as at some point, if the exam takes a long time to be performed, an inconclusive can turn into a negative result and a criminal can be absolved by flawed expert evidence.

Keywords: backlog, forensic laboratory, quality management, accreditation

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
294 Impact of Customer Experience Quality on Loyalty of Mobile and Fixed Broadband Services: Case Study of Telecom Egypt Group

Authors: Nawal Alawad, Passent Ibrahim Tantawi, Mohamed Abdel Salam Ragheb

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Providing customers with quality experiences has been confirmed to be a sustainable, competitive advantage with a distinct financial impact for companies. The success of service providers now relies on their ability to provide customer-centric services. The importance of perceived service quality and customer experience is widely recognized. The focus of this research is in the area of mobile and fixed broadband services. This study is of dual importance both academically and practically. Academically, this research applies a new model investigating the impact of customer experience quality on loyalty based on modifying the multiple-item scale for measuring customers’ service experience in a new area and did not depend on the traditional models. The integrated scale embraces four dimensions: service experience, outcome focus, moments of truth and peace of mind. In addition, it gives a scientific explanation for this relationship so this research fill the gap in such relations in which no one correlate or give explanations for these relations before using such integrated model and this is the first time to apply such modified and integrated new model in telecom field. Practically, this research gives insights to marketers and practitioners to improve customer loyalty through evolving the experience quality of broadband customers which is interpreted to suggested outcomes: purchase, commitment, repeat purchase and word-of-mouth, this approach is one of the emerging topics in service marketing. Data were collected through 412 questionnaires and analyzed by using structural equation modeling.Findings revealed that both outcome focus and moments of truth have a significant impact on loyalty while both service experience and peace of mind have insignificant impact on loyalty.In addition, it was found that 72% of the variation occurring in loyalty is explained by the model. The researcher also measured the net prompters score and gave explanation for the results. Furthermore, assessed customer’s priorities of broadband services. The researcher recommends that the findings of this research will extend to be considered in the future plans of Telecom Egypt Group. In addition, to be applied in the same industry especially in the developing countries that have the same circumstances with similar service settings. This research is a positive contribution in service marketing, particularly in telecom industry for making marketing more reliable as managers can relate investments in service experience directly with the performance closest to income for instance, repurchasing behavior, positive word of mouth and, commitment. Finally, the researcher recommends that future studies should consider this model to explain significant marketing outcomes such as share of wallet and ultimately profitability.

Keywords: broadband services, customer experience quality, loyalty, net promoters score

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
293 The Effect of Using Emg-based Luna Neurorobotics for Strengthening of Affected Side in Chronic Stroke Patients - Retrospective Study

Authors: Surbhi Kaura, Sachin Kandhari, Shahiduz Zafar

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Chronic stroke, characterized by persistent motor deficits, often necessitates comprehensive rehabilitation interventions to improve functional outcomes and mitigate long-term dependency. Luna neurorobotic devices, integrated with EMG feedback systems, provide an innovative platform for facilitating neuroplasticity and functional improvement in stroke survivors. This retrospective study aims to investigate the impact of EMG-based Luna neurorobotic interventions on the strengthening of the affected side in chronic stroke patients. In rehabilitation, active patient participation significantly activates the sensorimotor network during motor control, unlike passive movement. Stroke is a debilitating condition that, when not effectively treated, can result in significant deficits and lifelong dependency. Common issues like neglecting the use of limbs can lead to weakness in chronic stroke cases. In rehabilitation, active patient participation significantly activates the sensorimotor network during motor control, unlike passive movement. This study aims to assess how electromyographic triggering (EMG-triggered) robotic treatments affect walking, ankle muscle force after an ischemic stroke, and the coactivation of agonist and antagonist muscles, which contributes to neuroplasticity with the assistance of biofeedback using robotics. Methods: The study utilized robotic techniques based on electromyography (EMG) for daily rehabilitation in long-term stroke patients, offering feedback and monitoring progress. Each patient received one session per day for two weeks, with the intervention group undergoing 45 minutes of robot-assisted training and exercise at the hospital, while the control group performed exercises at home. Eight participants with impaired motor function and gait after stroke were involved in the study. EMG-based biofeedback exercises were administered through the LUNA neuro-robotic machine, progressing from trigger and release mode to trigger and hold, and later transitioning to dynamic mode. Assessments were conducted at baseline and after two weeks, including the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, a 10-meter walk test (10m), Berg Balance Scale (BBG), and gait parameters like cadence, step length, upper limb strength measured by EMG threshold in microvolts, and force in Newton meters. Results: The study utilized a scale to assess motor strength and balance, illustrating the benefits of EMG-biofeedback following LUNA robotic therapy. In the analysis of the left hemiparetic group, an increase in strength post-rehabilitation was observed. The pre-TUG mean value was 72.4, which decreased to 42.4 ± 0.03880133 seconds post-rehabilitation, with a significant difference indicated by a p-value below 0.05, reflecting a reduced task completion time. Similarly, in the force-based task, the pre-knee dynamic force in Newton meters was 18.2NM, which increased to 31.26NM during knee extension post-rehabilitation. The post-student t-test showed a p-value of 0.026, signifying a significant difference. This indicated an increase in the strength of knee extensor muscles after LUNA robotic rehabilitation. Lastly, at baseline, the EMG value for ankle dorsiflexion was 5.11 (µV), which increased to 43.4 ± 0.06 µV post-rehabilitation, signifying an increase in the threshold and the patient's ability to generate more motor units during left ankle dorsiflexion. Conclusion: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of EMG and dynamic force-based rehabilitation devices on walking and strength of the affected side in chronic stroke patients without nominal data comparisons among stroke patients. Additionally, it provides insights into the inclusion of EMG-triggered neurorehabilitation robots in the daily rehabilitation of patients.

Keywords: neurorehabilitation, robotic therapy, stroke, strength, paralysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 36
292 Language Skills in the Emergent Literacy of Spanish-Speaking Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

Authors: Adriana Salgado, Sandra Castaneda, Ivan Perez

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Learning to read and write is a complex process involving several cognitive skills, contextual, and cultural environments. The basis of this development is linguistic skills, such as the ability to name and understand vocabulary, retell a story, phonological awareness, letter knowledge, among others. In children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), one of the main concerns is related to language disorders. Nevertheless, most of the children with ASD are able to decode written information but have difficulties in reading comprehension. The research of these processes in the Spanish-speaking population is limited. However, the increasing prevalence of this diagnosis (1 in 115 children) in Mexico has implications at different levels. Educational research is an important area of interest in ASD children, such as emergent literacy. Reading and writing expand the possibilities of academic, cultural, and social information access. Taking this information into account, the objective of this research was to identify the relationship between language skills, alphabet knowledge, phonological awareness, and early reading and writing in ASD Spanish-speaking children. The method used for this research was based on tasks that were selected, adapted and in some cases designed to measure initial reading and writing, as well as language skills (naming, receptive vocabulary, and narrative skills), phonological awareness (similar phonological word pairs, beginning sound awareness and spelling) and letter knowledge, in a sample of 45 children (38 boys and 7 girls) with prior diagnosis of ASD. Descriptive analyses, as well as bivariate correlations, cluster analysis, and canonical correspondence, were obtained for the data results. Results showed that variability was large; however, it was possible to characterize the sample in low, medium, and high score groups regarding children performance. The low score group (46.7% of the sample), had a null or deficient performance in language skills and phonological awareness, some could identify up to five letters of the alphabet, showed no early reading skills but they could scribble. The middle score group was characterized by a highly variable performance in different tasks, with better language skills in receptive and naming vocabulary, some narrative, letter knowledge, and phonological awareness (beginning sound awareness) skills. The high score group, (24.4% of the sample) had the best performance in language skills in relation to the sample data, as well as in the rest of the measured skills. Finally, scores were canonically correlated between naming, receptive vocabulary, narrative, phonological awareness, letter knowledge and initial learning of reading and writing skills for the high score group and letter knowledge, naming and receptive vocabulary for the lower score group, which is consistent with previous research in typical and ASD children. In conclusion, the obtained data is consistent with previous studies. Despite large variability, it was possible to identify performance profiles and relations based on linguistic, phonological awareness, and letter knowledge skills. These skills were predictor variables of the initial development of reading and writing. The above has implications for a future program and strategies development that may benefit the acquisition of reading and writing in ASD children.

Keywords: autism, autism spectrum disorders, early literacy, emergent literacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 113
291 A Convolution Neural Network PM-10 Prediction System Based on a Dense Measurement Sensor Network in Poland

Authors: Piotr A. Kowalski, Kasper Sapala, Wiktor Warchalowski

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PM10 is a suspended dust that primarily has a negative effect on the respiratory system. PM10 is responsible for attacks of coughing and wheezing, asthma or acute, violent bronchitis. Indirectly, PM10 also negatively affects the rest of the body, including increasing the risk of heart attack and stroke. Unfortunately, Poland is a country that cannot boast of good air quality, in particular, due to large PM concentration levels. Therefore, based on the dense network of Airly sensors, it was decided to deal with the problem of prediction of suspended particulate matter concentration. Due to the very complicated nature of this issue, the Machine Learning approach was used. For this purpose, Convolution Neural Network (CNN) neural networks have been adopted, these currently being the leading information processing methods in the field of computational intelligence. The aim of this research is to show the influence of particular CNN network parameters on the quality of the obtained forecast. The forecast itself is made on the basis of parameters measured by Airly sensors and is carried out for the subsequent day, hour after hour. The evaluation of learning process for the investigated models was mostly based upon the mean square error criterion; however, during the model validation, a number of other methods of quantitative evaluation were taken into account. The presented model of pollution prediction has been verified by way of real weather and air pollution data taken from the Airly sensor network. The dense and distributed network of Airly measurement devices enables access to current and archival data on air pollution, temperature, suspended particulate matter PM1.0, PM2.5, and PM10, CAQI levels, as well as atmospheric pressure and air humidity. In this investigation, PM2.5, and PM10, temperature and wind information, as well as external forecasts of temperature and wind for next 24h served as inputted data. Due to the specificity of the CNN type network, this data is transformed into tensors and then processed. This network consists of an input layer, an output layer, and many hidden layers. In the hidden layers, convolutional and pooling operations are performed. The output of this system is a vector containing 24 elements that contain prediction of PM10 concentration for the upcoming 24 hour period. Over 1000 models based on CNN methodology were tested during the study. During the research, several were selected out that give the best results, and then a comparison was made with the other models based on linear regression. The numerical tests carried out fully confirmed the positive properties of the presented method. These were carried out using real ‘big’ data. Models based on the CNN technique allow prediction of PM10 dust concentration with a much smaller mean square error than currently used methods based on linear regression. What's more, the use of neural networks increased Pearson's correlation coefficient (R²) by about 5 percent compared to the linear model. During the simulation, the R² coefficient was 0.92, 0.76, 0.75, 0.73, and 0.73 for 1st, 6th, 12th, 18th, and 24th hour of prediction respectively.

Keywords: air pollution prediction (forecasting), machine learning, regression task, convolution neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
290 Impact of U.S. Insurance Reimbursement Policy on Healthcare Business and Entrepreneurship

Authors: Iris Xiaohong Quan, Sharon Qi, Kelly Tianqin Shi

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This study focuses on the critical role of insurance policies in a world grappling with increasing mental health challenges, as they significantly influence the dynamics of healthcare businesses and entrepreneurial ventures. The paper utilizes the mental health sector as a case to examine the impact of insurance policies on healthcare service providers, entrepreneurs, and individuals seeking mental health support. This paper addressed the following research questions: To what extent do changes in insurance reimbursement policies affect the accessibility and affordability of mental health services for patients, and how does this impact the overall demand for such services? What are the barriers and opportunities that mental health entrepreneurs face and what strategies and adaptations do mental health businesses employ when navigating the evolving landscape of insurance reimbursement policies? How do changes in insurance reimbursement policies, specifically related to mental health services, influence the financial viability and sustainability of mental health clinics and private practices? Employing a self-designed survey aimed at autism spectrum disorder (ASD) treatment companies, alongside two in-depth case studies and an analysis of pertinent insurance policies and documents, this research aims to elucidate the multifaceted influence of insurance policies on the mental health industry. The findings from this study reveal how insurance policies shape the landscape of mental health businesses and their operations. A total of 821 autism treatment organizations or offices were contacted by telephone between November 1, 2019, and January 31, 2020. About half of the offices (53.33%) were established in the past five years, and 80% were established in the past 15 years. There is a significant increase in the establishment of ABA service centers in the recent two decades as a result of autism insurance reform, the increasing social awareness of ASD, and the redefinition of autism. In addition, almost half of the ABA service providers we surveyed had a patient size ranging from 20 to 50 in the year when the residence state passed the legislation for autism insurance coverage. On average, an ABA service provider works with 5.3 insurance companies. This research find that insurance is the main source of revenue for most ABA service providers. However, our survey reveals that clients’ out of pocket payment has been the second main revenue sources. Despite the changes of regulations and insurance policies in all states, clients still have to pay a fraction of, if not all, the ABA treatment service fees out of pocket. This research shows that some ABA service providers seek federal and government funds and grants to support their services and businesses. Our further analysis with the in-depth case studies and other secondary data also indicate the rise of entrepreneurial startups in the mental health industry. Overall, this research sheds light on both the challenges and opportunities presented by insurance policies in the mental health sector, offering insights into the new industry landscape.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, healthcare policy, insurance policy, mental health industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 36
289 Design of a Small and Medium Enterprise Growth Prediction Model Based on Web Mining

Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 236
288 Health and Greenhouse Gas Emission Implications of Reducing Meat Intakes in Hong Kong

Authors: Cynthia Sau Chun Yip, Richard Fielding

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High meat and especially red meat intakes are significantly and positively associated with a multiple burden of diseases and also high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated population meat intake patterns in Hong Kong. It quantified the burden of disease and GHG emission outcomes by modeling to adjust Hong Kong population meat intakes to recommended healthy levels. It compared age- and sex-specific population meat, fruit and vegetable intakes obtained from a population survey among adults aged 20 years and over in Hong Kong in 2005-2007, against intake recommendations suggested in the Modelling System to Inform the Revision of the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating (AGHE-2011-MS) technical document. This study found that meat and meat alternatives, especially red meat intakes among Hong Kong males aged 20+ years and over are significantly higher than recommended. Red meat intakes among females aged 50-69 years and other meat and alternatives intakes among aged 20-59 years are also higher than recommended. Taking the 2005-07 age- and sex-specific population meat intake as baselines, three counterfactual scenarios of adjusting Hong Kong adult population meat intakes to AGHE-2011-MS and Pre-2011 AGHE recommendations by the year 2030 were established. Consequent energy intake gaps were substituted with additional legume, fruit and vegetable intakes. To quantify the consequent GHG emission outcomes associated with Hong Kong meat intakes, Cradle-to-ready-to-eat lifecycle assessment emission outcome modelling was used. Comparative risk assessment of burden of disease model was used to quantify the health outcomes. This study found adjusting meat intakes to recommended levels could reduce Hong Kong GHG emission by 17%-44% when compared against baseline meat intake emissions, and prevent 2,519 to 7,012 premature deaths in males and 53 to 1,342 in females, as well as multiple burden of diseases when compared to the baseline meat intake scenario. Comparing lump sum meat intake reduction and outcome measures across the entire population, and using emission factors, and relative risks from individual studies in previous co-benefit studies, this study used age- and sex-specific input and output measures, emission factors and relative risks obtained from high quality meta-analysis and meta-review respectively, and has taken government dietary recommendations into account. Hence evaluations in this study are of better quality and more reflective of real life practices. Further to previous co-benefit studies, this study pinpointed age- and sex-specific population and meat-type-specific intervention points and leverages. When compared with similar studies in Australia, this study also showed that intervention points and leverages among populations in different geographic and cultural background could be different, and that globalization also globalizes meat consumption emission effects. More regional and cultural specific evaluations are recommended to promote more sustainable meat consumption and enhance global food security.

Keywords: burden of diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, Hong Kong diet, sustainable meat consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 290
287 A Complex Network Approach to Structural Inequality of Educational Deprivation

Authors: Harvey Sanchez-Restrepo, Jorge Louca

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Equity and education are major focus of government policies around the world due to its relevance for addressing the sustainable development goals launched by Unesco. In this research, we developed a primary analysis of a data set of more than one hundred educational and non-educational factors associated with learning, coming from a census-based large-scale assessment carried on in Ecuador for 1.038.328 students, their families, teachers, and school directors, throughout 2014-2018. Each participating student was assessed by a standardized computer-based test. Learning outcomes were calibrated through item response theory with two-parameters logistic model for getting raw scores that were re-scaled and synthetized by a learning index (LI). Our objective was to develop a network for modelling educational deprivation and analyze the structure of inequality gaps, as well as their relationship with socioeconomic status, school financing, and student's ethnicity. Results from the model show that 348 270 students did not develop the minimum skills (prevalence rate=0.215) and that Afro-Ecuadorian, Montuvios and Indigenous students exhibited the highest prevalence with 0.312, 0.278 and 0.226, respectively. Regarding the socioeconomic status of students (SES), modularity class shows clearly that the system is out of equilibrium: the first decile (the poorest) exhibits a prevalence rate of 0.386 while rate for decile ten (the richest) is 0.080, showing an intense negative relationship between learning and SES given by R= –0.58 (p < 0.001). Another interesting and unexpected result is the average-weighted degree (426.9) for both private and public schools attending Afro-Ecuadorian students, groups that got the highest PageRank (0.426) and pointing out that they suffer the highest educational deprivation due to discrimination, even belonging to the richest decile. The model also found the factors which explain deprivation through the highest PageRank and the greatest degree of connectivity for the first decile, they are: financial bonus for attending school, computer access, internet access, number of children, living with at least one parent, books access, read books, phone access, time for homework, teachers arriving late, paid work, positive expectations about schooling, and mother education. These results provide very accurate and clear knowledge about the variables affecting poorest students and the inequalities that it produces, from which it might be defined needs profiles, as well as actions on the factors in which it is possible to influence. Finally, these results confirm that network analysis is fundamental for educational policy, especially linking reliable microdata with social macro-parameters because it allows us to infer how gaps in educational achievements are driven by students’ context at the time of assigning resources.

Keywords: complex network, educational deprivation, evidence-based policy, large-scale assessments, policy informatics

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286 Challenges in Self-Managing Vitality: A Qualitative Study about Staying Vital at Work among Dutch Office Workers

Authors: Violet Petit-Steeghs, Jochem J. R. Van Roon, Jacqueline E. W. Broerse

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Last decennia the retirement age in Europe is gradually increasing. As a result, people have to continue working for a longer period of time. Health problems due to increased sedentary behavior and mental conditions like burn-out, pose a threat in fulfilling employees’ working life. In order to stimulate the ability and willingness to work in the present and future, it is important to stay vital. Vitality is regarded in literature as a sense of energy, motivation and resilience. It is assumed that by increasing their vitality, employees will stay healthier and be more satisfied with their job, leading to a more sustainable employment and less absenteeism in the future. The aim of this project is to obtain insights into the experiences and barriers of employees, and specifically office workers, with regard to their vitality. These insights are essential in order to develop appropriate measures in the future. To get more insights in the experiences of office workers on their vitality, 8 focus group discussions were organized with 6-10 office workers from 4 different employers (an university, a national construction company and a large juridical and care service organization) in the Netherlands. The discussions were transcribed and analyzed via open coding. This project is part of a larger consortium project Provita2, and conducted in collaboration with University of Technology Eindhoven. Results showed that a range of interdependent factors form a complex network that influences office workers’ vitality. These factors can be divided in three overarching groups: (1) personal (2) organizational and (3) environmental factors. Personal intrinsic factors, relating to the office worker, comprise someone’s physical health, coping style, life style, needs, and private life. Organizational factors, relating to the employer, are the workload, management style and the structure, vision and culture of the organization. Lastly, environmental factors consist of the air, light, temperature at the workplace and whether the workplace is inspiring and workable. Office workers experienced barriers to improve their own vitality due to a lack of autonomy. On the one hand, because most factors were not only intrinsic but extrinsic, like work atmosphere or the temperature in the room. On the other hand, office workers were restricted in adapting both intrinsic as well as extrinsic factors. Restrictions to for instance the flexibility of working times and the workload, can set limitations for improving vitality through personal factors like physical activity and mental relaxation. In conclusion, a large range of interdependent factors influence the vitality of office workers. Office workers are often regarded to have a responsibility to improve their vitality, but are limitedly autonomous in adapting these factors. Measures to improve vitality should therefore not only focus on increasing awareness among office workers, but also on empowering them to fulfill this responsibility. A holistic approach that takes the complex mutual dependencies between the different factors and actors (like managers, employees and HR personnel) into account is highly recommended.

Keywords: occupational health, perspectives office workers, sustainable employment, vitality at work, work & wellbeing

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285 Vitamin B9 Separation by Synergic Pertraction

Authors: Blaga Alexandra Cristina, Kloetzer Lenuta, Bompa Amalia Stela, Galaction Anca Irina, Cascaval Dan

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Vitamin B9 is an important member of vitamins B group, being a growth factor, important for making genetic material as DNA and RNA, red blood cells, for building muscle tissues, especially during periods of infancy, adolescence and pregnancy. Its production by biosynthesis is based on the high metabolic potential of mutant Bacillus subtilis, due to a superior biodisponibility compared to that obtained by chemical pathways. Pertraction, defined as the extraction and transport through liquid membranes consists in the transfer of a solute between two aqueous phases of different pH-values, phases that are separated by a solvent layer of various sizes. The pertraction efficiency and selectivity could be significantly enhanced by adding a carrier in the liquid membrane, such as organophosphoric compounds, long chain amines or crown-ethers etc., the separation process being called facilitated pertraction. The aim of the work is to determine the impact of the presence of two extractants/carriers in the bulk liquid membrane, i.e. di(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (D2EHPA) and lauryltrialkylmetilamine (Amberlite LA2) on the transport kinetics of vitamin B9. The experiments have been carried out using two pertraction equipments for a free liquid membrane or bulk liquid membrane. One pertraction cell consists on a U-shaped glass pipe (used for the dichloromethane membrane) and the second one is an H-shaped glass pipe (used for h-heptane), having 45 mm inner diameter of the total volume of 450 mL, the volume of each compartment being of 150 mL. The aqueous solutions are independently mixed by means of double blade stirrers with 6 mm diameter and 3 mm height, having the rotation speed of 500 rpm. In order to reach high diffusional rates through the solvent layer, the organic phase has been mixed with a similar stirrer, at a similar rotation speed (500 rpm). The area of mass transfer surface, both for extraction and for reextraction, was of 1.59x10-³ m2. The study on facilitated pertraction with the mixture of two carriers, namely D2EHPA and Amberlite LA-2, dissolved in two solvents with different polarities: n-heptane and dichloromethane, indicated the possibility to obtain the synergic effect. The synergism has been analyzed by considering the vitamin initial and final mass flows, as well as the permeability factors through liquid membrane. The synergic effect has been observed at low D2EHPA concentrations and high Amberlite LA-2 concentrations, being more important for the low-polar solvent (n-heptane). The results suggest that the mechanism of synergic pertraction consists on the reaction between the organophosphoric carrier and vitamin B9 at the interface between the feed and membrane phases, while the aminic carrier enhances the hydrophobicity of this compound by solvation. However, the formation of this complex reduced the reextraction rate and, consequently, affects the synergism related to the final mass flows and permeability factor. For describing the influences of carriers concentrations on the synergistic coefficients, some equations have been proposed by taking into account the vitamin mass flows or permeability factors, with an average deviations between 4.85% and 10.73%.

Keywords: pertraction, synergism, vitamin B9, Amberlite LA-2, di(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid

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284 Graphene-Graphene Oxide Dopping Effect on the Mechanical Properties of Polyamide Composites

Authors: Daniel Sava, Dragos Gudovan, Iulia Alexandra Gudovan, Ioana Ardelean, Maria Sonmez, Denisa Ficai, Laurentia Alexandrescu, Ecaterina Andronescu

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Graphene and graphene oxide have been intensively studied due to the very good properties, which are intrinsic to the material or come from the easy doping of those with other functional groups. Graphene and graphene oxide have known a broad band of useful applications, in electronic devices, drug delivery systems, medical devices, sensors and opto-electronics, coating materials, sorbents of different agents for environmental applications, etc. The board range of applications does not come only from the use of graphene or graphene oxide alone, or by its prior functionalization with different moieties, but also it is a building block and an important component in many composite devices, its addition coming with new functionalities on the final composite or strengthening the ones that are already existent on the parent product. An attempt to improve the mechanical properties of polyamide elastomers by compounding with graphene oxide in the parent polymer composition was attempted. The addition of the graphene oxide contributes to the properties of the final product, improving the hardness and aging resistance. Graphene oxide has a lower hardness and textile strength, and if the amount of graphene oxide in the final product is not correctly estimated, it can lead to mechanical properties which are comparable to the starting material or even worse, the graphene oxide agglomerates becoming a tearing point in the final material if the amount added is too high (in a value greater than 3% towards the parent material measured in mass percentages). Two different types of tests were done on the obtained materials, the hardness standard test and the tensile strength standard test, and they were made on the obtained materials before and after the aging process. For the aging process, an accelerated aging was used in order to simulate the effect of natural aging over a long period of time. The accelerated aging was made in extreme heat. For all materials, FT-IR spectra were recorded using FT-IR spectroscopy. From the FT-IR spectra only the bands corresponding to the polyamide were intense, while the characteristic bands for graphene oxide were very small in comparison due to the very small amounts introduced in the final composite along with the low absorptivity of the graphene backbone and limited number of functional groups. In conclusion, some compositions showed very promising results, both in tensile strength test and in hardness tests. The best ratio of graphene to elastomer was between 0.6 and 0.8%, this addition extending the life of the product. Acknowledgements: The present work was possible due to the EU-funding grant POSCCE-A2O2.2.1-2013-1, Project No. 638/12.03.2014, code SMIS-CSNR 48652. The financial contribution received from the national project ‘New nanostructured polymeric composites for centre pivot liners, centre plate and other components for the railway industry (RONERANANOSTRUCT)’, No: 18 PTE (PN-III-P2-2.1-PTE-2016-0146) is also acknowledged.

Keywords: graphene, graphene oxide, mechanical properties, dopping effect

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283 Developing a GIS-Based Tool for the Management of Fats, Oils, and Grease (FOG): A Case Study of Thames Water Wastewater Catchment

Authors: Thomas D. Collin, Rachel Cunningham, Bruce Jefferson, Raffaella Villa

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Fats, oils and grease (FOG) are by-products of food preparation and cooking processes. FOG enters wastewater systems through a variety of sources such as households, food service establishments, and industrial food facilities. Over time, if no source control is in place, FOG builds up on pipe walls, leading to blockages, and potentially to sewer overflows which are a major risk to the Environment and Human Health. UK water utilities spend millions of pounds annually trying to control FOG. Despite UK legislation specifying that discharge of such material is against the law, it is often complicated for water companies to identify and prosecute offenders. Hence, it leads to uncertainties regarding the attitude to take in terms of FOG management. Research is needed to seize the full potential of implementing current practices. The aim of this research was to undertake a comprehensive study to document the extent of FOG problems in sewer lines and reinforce existing knowledge. Data were collected to develop a model estimating quantities of FOG available for recovery within Thames Water wastewater catchments. Geographical Information System (GIS) software was used in conjunction to integrate data with a geographical component. FOG was responsible for at least 1/3 of sewer blockages in Thames Water waste area. A waste-based approach was developed through an extensive review to estimate the potential for FOG collection and recovery. Three main sources were identified: residential, commercial and industrial. Commercial properties were identified as one of the major FOG producers. The total potential FOG generated was estimated for the 354 wastewater catchments. Additionally, raw and settled sewage were sampled and analysed for FOG (as hexane extractable material) monthly at 20 sewage treatment works (STW) for three years. A good correlation was found with the sampled FOG and population equivalent (PE). On average, a difference of 43.03% was found between the estimated FOG (waste-based approach) and sampled FOG (raw sewage sampling). It was suggested that the approach undertaken could overestimate the FOG available, the sampling could only capture a fraction of FOG arriving at STW, and/or the difference could account for FOG accumulating in sewer lines. Furthermore, it was estimated that on average FOG could contribute up to 12.99% of the primary sludge removed. The model was further used to investigate the relationship between estimated FOG and number of blockages. The higher the FOG potential, the higher the number of FOG-related blockages is. The GIS-based tool was used to identify critical areas (i.e. high FOG potential and high number of FOG blockages). As reported in the literature, FOG was one of the main causes of sewer blockages. By identifying critical areas (i.e. high FOG potential and high number of FOG blockages) the model further explored the potential for source-control in terms of ‘sewer relief’ and waste recovery. Hence, it helped targeting where benefits from implementation of management strategies could be the highest. However, FOG is still likely to persist throughout the networks, and further research is needed to assess downstream impacts (i.e. at STW).

Keywords: fat, FOG, GIS, grease, oil, sewer blockages, sewer networks

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282 South-Mediterranean Oaks Forests Management in Changing Climate Case of the National Park of Tlemcen-Algeria

Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

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The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

Procedia PDF Downloads 366