Search results for: extreme value analysis

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

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The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

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Authors: Jamal A. Hassan, Ali Q. Abdulrazzaq, Sadiq J. Abass

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In this study, both the photoelastic, as well as the finite element methods, are used to study the stress distribution within human vertebra (L4) under forces similar to those that occur during normal life. Two & three dimensional models of vertebra were created by the software AutoCAD. The coordinates obtained were fed into a computer numerical control (CNC) tensile machine to fabricate the models from photoelastic sheets. Completed models were placed in a transmission polariscope and loaded with static force (up to 1500N). Stresses can be quantified and localized by counting the number of fringes. In both methods the Principle stresses were calculated at different regions. The results noticed that the maximum von-mises stress on the area of the extreme superior vertebral body surface and the facet surface with high normal stress (σ) and shear stress (τ). The facets and other posterior elements have a load-bearing function to help support the weight of the upper body and anything that it carries, and are also acted upon by spinal muscle forces. The numerical FE results have been compared with the experimental method using photoelasticity which shows good agreement between experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: photoelasticity, stress, load, finite element

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Authors: Mirijam Vrabec, Marian Janak, Bojan Ambrozic, Angelja K. Surca, Nastja Rogan Smuc, Nina Zupancic, Saso Sturm

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Natural microdiamonds and moissanite (SiC) can form during the orogenic events under ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic conditions (UHP), when parts of Earth’s crust are subducted to extreme depths. So far, such processes were identified only in few places on the Earth, and therefore, represent unique opportunity to study the evolution of the Earth’s deep interior. An important discovery of microdiamonds and moissanite was reported from Pohorje, (Slovenia), where they occurred as single or polyphase inclusions in garnets. Metasedimentary rocks from Pohorje are predominantly gneisses representing parts of the Austroalpine metamorphic units of the Eastern Alps. During Cretaceous orogeny, (ca. 95–92 Ma) continental crustal rocks were deeply subducted to the mantle depths (below 100 km) and metamorphosed at pressures exceeding 3.5 GPa and temperatures between 800–850 °C. Microstructural and phase analysis of the inclusions as well as detailed elemental analysis of host garnets were carried out combining several analytical techniques: optical microscope in plane polarized transmitted light, electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) with wavelength-dispersive x-ray spectrometry (WDS) and field-emission scanning microscope (FEG-SEM) with energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Micro-Raman analysis revealed sharp, first order diamond bands sometimes accompanied by graphite bands implying that transformation of diamond back to graphite occurred. To study the chemical and crystallographic relationship between microdiamonds and co-inclusions, advanced techniques of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) were applied, which included high-angle annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy (HAADF-STEM), combined with EDS and electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS). To prepare electron transparent TEM lamellae selectively a dual-beam Focused Ion Beam/SEM (FIB/SEM) was employed. Detailed study of TEM lamellae, which was cross-sectioned from the highly faceted inclusion body located within the host garnet crystal matrix, revealed rich and rather complex internal structure. Namely, the negative crystal facets of the main inclusion body were typically decorated with up to 1 μm thick amorphous layer, reflecting the general garnet composition with slight variations in Fe/Ca content. Within these layers, ELNES analysis revealed the presence of a 28–30 nm thick layer of amorphous carbon. The very last section of this layer corresponds to composition of SiO2. Within the inclusion, besides diamond and moissanite alumosilicate mineral with pronounced layered structure, iron sulfides and chlorine were identified under TEM and CO2 and CH4 using Raman. Moissanite is found as single crystal or composed from numerous highly textured nano-crystals with the average size of 10 nm. Moissanite inclusions were found embedded inside the amorphous crust implying that moissanite crystalized well before the deposition of the amorphous layer. From the microstructural, crystallographic and chemical observations so far we can deduce, that polyphase inclusions in diamond bearing garnets from Pohorje most probably crystallized from reduced supercritical fluids. Based on layered interface structure of the host mineral multiphase process of crystallization is possible. The presence of microdiamonds and moissanite in rocks from Pohorje demonstrates that these parts of the Eastern Alps were subducted to extreme depths, and were subsequently exhumed back to the Earth's surface without complete breakdown of UHP mineral phases, allowing a rear and exceptional opportunity to study them in-situ.

Keywords: diamond, fluid inclusions, moissanite, TEM, UHP metamorphism.

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Authors: Arturo Galvan, Jatziri Y. Moreno-Martinez, Daniel Arroyo-Montoya, Jose M. Gutierrez-Villalobos

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Bridges are one of the most seismically vulnerable structures on highway transportation systems. The general process for assessing the seismic vulnerability of a bridge involves the evaluation of its overall capacity and demand. One of the most common procedures to obtain this capacity is by means of pushover analysis of the structure. Typically, the bridge capacity is assessed using non-linear static methods or non-linear dynamic analyses. The non-linear dynamic approaches use step by step numerical solutions for assessing the capacity with the consuming computer time inconvenience. In this study, a nonlinear static analysis (‘pushover analysis’) was performed to predict the collapse mechanism of a typical bridge built in the central zone of Mexico (Celaya, Guanajuato). The bridge superstructure consists of three simple supported spans with a total length of 76 m: 22 m of the length of extreme spans and 32 m of length of the central span. The deck width is of 14 m and the concrete slab depth is of 18 cm. The bridge is built by means of frames of five piers with hollow box-shaped sections. The dimensions of these piers are 7.05 m height and 1.20 m diameter. The numerical model was created using a commercial software considering linear and non-linear elements. In all cases, the piers were represented by frame type elements with geometrical properties obtained from the structural project and construction drawings of the bridge. The deck was modeled with a mesh of rectangular thin shell (plate bending and stretching) finite elements. The moment-curvature analysis was performed for the sections of the piers of the bridge considering in each pier the effect of confined concrete and its reinforcing steel. In this way, plastic hinges were defined on the base of the piers to carry out the pushover analysis. In addition, time history analyses were performed using 19 accelerograms of real earthquakes that have been registered in Guanajuato. In this way, the displacements produced by the bridge were determined. Finally, pushover analysis was applied through the control of displacements in the piers to obtain the overall capacity of the bridge before the failure occurs. It was concluded that the lateral deformation of the piers due to a critical earthquake occurred in this zone is almost imperceptible due to the geometry and reinforcement demanded by the current design standards and compared to its displacement capacity, they were excessive. According to the analysis, it was found that the frames built with five piers increase the rigidity in the transverse direction of the bridge. Hence it is proposed to reduce these frames of five piers to three piers, maintaining the same geometrical characteristics and the same reinforcement in each pier. Also, the mechanical properties of materials (concrete and reinforcing steel) were maintained. Once a pushover analysis was performed considering this configuration, it was concluded that the bridge would continue having a “correct” seismic behavior, at least for the 19 accelerograms considered in this study. In this way, costs in material, construction, time and labor would be reduced in this study case.

Keywords: collapse mechanism, moment-curvature analysis, overall capacity, push-over analysis

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Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

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The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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Authors: Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo, Ramakar Jha

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Mapping of the extreme events (droughts) is one of the adaptation strategies to consequences of increasing climatic inconsistency and climate alterations. There is no operational practice to forecast the drought. One of the suggestions is to update mapping of drought prone areas for developmental planning. Drought indices play a significant role in drought mitigation. Many scientists have worked on different statistical analysis in drought and other climatological hazards. Many researchers have studied droughts individually for different sub-divisions or for India. Very few workers have studied district wise probabilities over large scale. In the present study, district wise drought probabilities over KBK (Kalahandi-Balangir-Koraput) districts of Odisha, India, Which are seriously prone to droughts, has been established using Hydrological drought index and Meteorological drought index along with the remote sensing drought indices to develop a multidirectional approach in the field of drought mitigation. Mapping for moderate and severe drought probabilities for KBK districts has been done and regions belonging different class intervals of probabilities of drought have been demarcated. Such type of information would be a good tool for planning purposes, for input in modelling and better promising results can be achieved.

Keywords: drought indices, KBK districts, proposed drought severity index, SPI

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Authors: Betty Makena, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda

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Global warming has intensified the frequency and intensity of extreme climate disasters and led to unpredictable weather conditions. Consequently, rapid shifts between drought and floods, known as Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration (DFAA), have become increasingly common. DFAA results in superimposed impacts of drought and floods within a short period, exacerbating the effects of the floods or drought event. Current disaster management plans often overlook DFAA events, as they primarily focus on either floods or drought. Therefore, effectively identifying DFAA events is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study aims to identify historical DFAA events in Kenya using the Long Cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration Index (LDFAI). The research will analyze the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and intensity of DFAA events from 1990 to 2023, as well as their socio-economic impacts. Understanding these events is important to develop more effective strategies to address the impacts of DFAA events. Findings from this study will inform decision making to develop coping strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of DFAA in Kenya.

Keywords: abrupt, alteration, drought, floods

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Authors: Isabel Mousinho de Figueiredo

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Traditionally it was held that the king can do no wrong. History has proved otherwise, and both the rule of law and the open society call for a diversification of checks and balances, including civil liability in tort. Most jurisdictions are right to fear the excessive cost of such liability for the innocent taxpayer. There are notwithstanding extreme instances where refusing compensation is perceived to be outrageous. Many public bodies end up handing out on a voluntary basis, which leaves room to question its legality and merit. Instead, some criteria can shed light on the fairness of an underlying rationale of such compensation and cordon it off within reasonable limits.

Keywords: comparative law, liability of legislators, public bodies, tort law

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Authors: Farhad Imanshoar

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The regime or equilibrium geometry of alluvial rivers remains a topic of fundamental scientific and engineering interest. There are several approaches to analyze the problem, namely: empirical formulas, semi-theoretical methods and rational (extreme) procedures. However, none of them is widely accepted at present, due to lack of knowledge of some physical processes associated with channel formation and the simplification hypotheses imposed in order to reduce the high quantity of involved variables. The study presented in this paper shows a new approach to estimate stable width and depth of sand-bed rivers by using developed stream power equation (DSPE). At first, a new procedure based on theoretical analysis and by considering DSPE and ultimate sediment concentration were developed. Then, experimental data for regime condition in sand-bed rivers (flow depth, flow width, sediment feed rate for several cases) were gathered. Finally, the results of this research (regime equations) are compared with the field data and other regime equations. A good agreement was observed between the field data and the values resulted from developed regime equation.

Keywords: regime equations, developed stream power equation, sand-bed rivers, semi-theoretical methods

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Authors: Mohammad Motiee

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From Kierkegaard to Sartre, the concept of 'being' was debated over various angles in the philosophy of being. Then, the futility, nothingness and absurdity of human condition in the world were all justified and led to a kind of solution by different approaches like Christianity, loss of faith, authentic existence and responsibility. In an extreme concern, the human condition in the world was pondered in different ways and the philosophy of thought tried to render an awareness of such condition for human beings. The present study aims at illustration of some approaches presented by prominent existentialists to justify the controversies in the concept of existence in human life.

Keywords: existence, existentialism, alienation, being

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Authors: Philip Tachin

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Despite the positive contributions that religion has impacted human society, religious discrimination and violence also have been growing globally with extreme negative effects on human life and social relationships. Believers in religious extremism are motivated by a sense of exhibiting true religious piety in which case they do not only withhold their practical benevolence from those who do not belong to their faith but they even seek the elimination of other adherents from human existence. This phenomenon has a very high magnitude in Nigeria over the years, which deserves more research for the purpose of finding sustainable solutions to the problem. Calvin believed that true religious piety must, among other things, be categorized in personal and corporate positive social actions that esteem human needs irrespective of ethnic, ideological and belief differences. It is therefore appropriate to pose the following questions: Should true religious piety be seen in terms of how the actions of adherents positively impact human society? Could Calvin’s idea on this issue be very significant and helpful in the context of the Nigerian situation? In answering these questions, this research will limit its investigation to Calvin’s Institutes and some of his Commentaries. The goal of this research is to offer an instructive orientation to the readers that will help in building a more tolerable, peaceful, and a free and virtuous society.

Keywords: Calvin, human good, religious piety, virtuous society

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Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

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Authors: Suleyman Ogul Ertugrul, Ilkin Arda Gurel, Serkan Inandı, Mustafa Gorkem Coban, Mustafa Turgut, Mustafa Kıgılı, Ali Mert, Oguzhan Kesmez, Murad Ozan, Caglar Uyulan

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In high-performance automotive engineering, the realistic simulation of suspension systems is crucial for enhancing vehicle dynamics and handling. This study focuses on the double wishbone suspension system, prevalent in racing vehicles due to its superior control and stability characteristics. Utilizing MATLAB and Adams Car simulation software, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of displacement behaviors and damper sizing under various dynamic conditions. The initial phase involves using MATLAB to simulate the entire suspension system, allowing for the preliminary determination of damper size based on the system's response under simulated conditions. Following this, manual calculations of wheel loads are performed to assess the forces acting on the front and rear suspensions during scenarios such as braking, cornering, maximum vertical loads, and acceleration. Further dynamic force analysis is carried out using MATLAB Simulink, focusing on the interactions between suspension components during key movements such as bumps and rebounds. This simulation helps in formulating precise force equations and in calculating the stiffness of the suspension springs. To enhance the accuracy of our findings, we focus on a detailed kinematic and dynamic analysis. This includes the creation of kinematic loops, derivation of relevant equations, and computation of Jacobian matrices to accurately determine damper travel and compression metrics. The calculated spring stiffness is crucial in selecting appropriate springs to ensure optimal suspension performance. To validate and refine our results, we replicate the analyses using the Adams Car software, renowned for its detailed handling of vehicular dynamics. The goal is to achieve a robust, reliable suspension setup that maximizes performance under the extreme conditions encountered in racing scenarios. This study exemplifies the integration of theoretical mechanics with advanced simulation tools to achieve a high-performance suspension setup that can significantly improve race car performance, providing a methodology that can be adapted for different types of racing vehicles.

Keywords: Racing Car, Pushrod Suspension, Simulation, Dynamic Analysis, Kinematic Analysis

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Authors: Yasmeen Jamal Alabdallat, Almutazballlah Bassam Qablan, Obada Ahmad Al Jayyousi, Ihdaa Mahmoud Bani Khalaf, Eman E. Alshial

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Background: Bipolar disorder, formerly known as manic depression, is a mental health status that leads to extreme mood swings that include emotional lows (depression) and highs (mania or hypomania). This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of lithium versus valproate among bipolar patients. Methods: A computer literature search of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials was conducted from inception until June 2022. Studies comparing lithium versus valproate among bipolar patients were selected for the analysis, and all relevant outcomes were pooled in the meta-analysis using Review Manager Software. Results: 11 Randomized Clinical Trials were included in this meta-analysis with a total of 4159 patients. Our meta showed that lithium was superior to valproate in terms of Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) (MD = 0.00 with 95% CI, (-0.55 – 0.55; I2 = 0%), P = 1.00). The results of the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) showed that the overall effect favored the valproate treated group (MD = 1.41 with 95% CI, (-0.15 – 2.67; I2 = 0%), P = 0.03). Concerning the results of the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), the results showed that the lithium was superior to valproate (MD = 0.03 with 95% CI, (-0.80 to 0.87; I2 = 40%), P = 0.94). In terms of the sexual side effect, we found that the valproate was superior to lithium (RR 1.19 with 95% CI, (0.74 to 1.91; I2 = 0%), P = 0.47). The lithium-treated group was superior in comparison to valproate treated group in terms of Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS) (MD = -0.03 with 95% CI (-0.38 to 0.32; I2 = 0%), P = 0.87). The lithium was more favorable in terms of Simpson-Agnes scale (MD = -0.40 with 95% CI, (-0.86 to 0.06; I2 = 0%), P = 0.09). The results of the Barnes akathisia scale showed that the overall effect of the valproate was more favorable in comparison to lithium (MD = 0.05 with 95% CI, (-0.12 to 0.22; I2 = 0%), P = 0.57). Conclusion: Our study revealed that on the scales of efficacy Lithium treated group surpassed Valproate treated group in terms of Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS), Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS) and Simpson-Agnes scale, but valproate surpassed it in Barnes Akathisia scale. Furthermore, on the scales of depression Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) showed that the overall effect favored Valproate treated group, but Lithium surpassed valproate in terms of Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS). Valproate surpassed Lithium in terms of sexual side effects.

Keywords: bipolar, mania, bipolar-depression, sexual dysfunction, sexual side effects, treatment

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Authors: Elisha Kyirem

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Undoubtedly, climate change is a major global challenge that could threaten the very foundation upon which life on earth is anchored, with its impacts on human mobility attracting the attention of policy makers and researchers. There is an increasing body of literature and case studies suggesting that migration could be a way through which the vulnerable move away from areas exposed to climate extreme events to improve their lives and that of their families. This presents migration as a way through which people voluntarily move to seek opportunities that could help reduce their exposure and avoid danger from climate events. Thus, migration is seen as a proactive adaptation strategy aimed at building resilience and improving livelihoods to enable people to adapt to future changing events. However, there has not been any mathematical equation linking migration and climate change adaptation. Drawing from literature in development studies, this paper develops an equation that seeks to link the relationship between migration and climate change adaptation. The mathematical equation establishes the linkages between migration, resilience, poverty reduction and vulnerability, and these the paper maintains, are the key variables for conceptualizing the migration-climate change adaptation nexus. The paper then tests the validity of the equation using the sustainable livelihood framework and publicly available data on migration and tourism in Ghana.

Keywords: migration, adaptation, climate change, adaptation, poverty reduction

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Authors: Anastasios Rodis

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Background: Case studies of walkers, climbers, and campers exposed to cold and wet conditions without limb water/windproof protection revealed experiences of muscle weakness and fatigue. It is reasonable to assume that a part of the fatigue could occur due to an alteration in substrate utilization, since reduction of performance in extreme cold conditions, may partially be explained by higher anaerobic glycolysis, reflecting higher carbohydrate oxidation and an increase accumulation rate of blood lactate. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of pre-exercise lower limb cooling on substrate utilization rate during sub-maximal exercise. Method: Six male university students (mean (SD): age, 21.3 (1.0) yr; maximal oxygen uptake (V0₂ max), 49.6 (3.6) ml.min⁻¹; and percentage of body fat, 13.6 (2.5) % were examined in random order after either 30min cold water (12°C) immersion utilized as the cooling strategy up to the gluteal fold, or under control conditions (no precooling), with tests separated by minimum of 7 days. Exercise consisted of 60min cycling at 50% V0₂ max, in a thermoneutral environment of 20°C. Subjects were also required to record a diet diary over the 24hrs prior to the each trial. Means (SD) for the three macronutrients during the 1 day prior to each trial (expressed as a percentage of total energy) 52 (3) % carbohydrate, 31 (4) % fat, and 17 (± 2) % protein. Results: The following responses to lower limb cooling relative to control trial during exercise were: 1) Carbohydrate (CHO) oxidation, and blood lactate (Bₗₐc) concentration were significantly higher (P < 0.05); 2) rectal temperature (Tᵣₑc) was significantly higher (P < 0.05), but skin temperature was significantly lower (P < 0.05); no significant differences were found in blood glucose (Bg), heart rate (HR) and oxygen consumption (V0₂). Discussion: These data suggested that lower limb cooling prior to submaximal exercise will shift metabolic processes from Fat oxidation to CHO oxidation. This shift from Fat to CHO oxidation will probably have important implications in the surviving scenario, since people facing accidental localized cooling of their limbs either through wading/falling in cold water or snow even if they do not perform high intensity activity, they have to rely on CHO availability.

Keywords: exercise in wet conditions, leg cooling, outdoors exercise, substrate utilization

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Authors: Cristiane C. B. Alves, Livia Eisler, Gustavo Mota, Kurt Faltin Jr., Cristina L. F. Ortolani

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The correct positioning of the brackets is essential for the success of orthodontic treatment. Indirect bracket placing technique has the main objective of eliminating the positioning errors, which commonly occur in the technique of direct system of brackets. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that the exact positioning of the brackets is of extreme relevance for the success of the treatment. The present work shows a case report of an adult female patient who attended the clinic with the complaint of being in orthodontic treatment for more than 5 years without noticing any progress. As a result of the intra-oral clinical examination and documentation analysis, a class III malocclusion, an anterior open bite, and absence of all third molars and first upper and lower bilateral premolars were observed. For the treatment, the indirect bonding technique with self-ligating ceramic braces was applied. The preparation of the trays was done after the intraoral digital scanning and printing of models with a 3D printer. Brackets were positioned virtually, using a specialized software. After twelve months of treatment, correction of the malocclusion was observed, as well as the closing of the anterior open bite. It is concluded that the adequate and precise positioning of brackets is necessary for a successful treatment.

Keywords: anterior open-bite, CAD/CAM, orthodontics, malocclusion, angle class III

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Authors: Jingjing Yan, Gengen He, Anahid Basiri

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The design of an indoor navigation system for fire evacuation support requires not only physical feasibility but also a relatively thorough consideration of the human factors. This study has taken a survey to investigate the fire response performances (FRP) of the indoor occupants in age of 20s, virtually in an environment for their routine life, focusing on the aspects of indoor familiarity (spatial cognition), psychological stress and decision makings. For indoor familiarity, it is interested in three factors, i.e., the familiarity to exits and risky places as well as the satisfaction degree of the current indoor sign installation. According to the results, males have a higher average familiarity with the indoor exits while both genders have a relatively low level of risky place awareness. These two factors are positively correlated with the satisfaction degree of the current installation of the indoor signs, and this correlation is more evident for the exit familiarity. The integration of the height factor with the other two indoor familiarity factors can improve the degree of indoor sign satisfaction. For psychological stress, this study concentrates on the situated cognition of moving difficulty, nervousness, and speed reduction when using a bending posture during the fire evacuation to avoid smoke inhalation. The results have shown that both genders have a similar mid-level of hardness sensation. The females have a higher average level of nervousness, while males have a higher average level of speed reduction sensation. This study has assumed that the growing indoor spatial cognition can help ease the psychological hardness and nervousness. However, it only seems to be true after reaching a certain level. When integrating the effects from indoor familiarity and the other two psychological factors, the correlation to the sensation of speed change can be strengthened, based on a stronger positive correlation with the integrated factors. This study has also investigated the participants’ attitude to the navigation support during evacuation, and the majority of the participants have shown positive attitudes. For following the guidance under some extreme cases, i.e., changing to a longer path and to an alternative exit, the majority of the participants has shown the confidence of keeping trusting the guidance service. These decisions are affected by the combined influences from indoor familiarity, psychological stress, and attitude of using navigation service. For the decision time of the selected extreme cases, it costs more time in average for deciding to use a longer route than to use an alternative exit, and this situation is more evident for the female participants. This requires further considerations when designing a personalized smartphone-based navigation app. This study has also investigated the calming factors for people being trapped during evacuation. The top consideration is the distance to the nearest firefighters, and the following considerations are the current fire conditions in the surrounding environment and the locations of all firefighters. The ranking of the latter two considerations is very gender-dependent according to the results.

Keywords: fire response performances, indoor spatial cognition, situated cognition, survey analysis

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Authors: Chidiebere C. Agoha, Armstong C. Awuzie, Chukwuebuka N. Onwubuariri, Joy O. Njoku

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Spatial analysis is a field of study that utilizes geographic or spatial information to understand and analyze patterns, relationships, and trends in data. It is characterized by the use of geographic or spatial information, which allows for the analysis of data in the context of its location and surroundings. It is different from non-spatial or aspatial techniques, which do not consider the geographic context and may not provide as complete of an understanding of the data. Spatial analysis is applied in a variety of fields, which includes urban planning, environmental science, geosciences, epidemiology, marketing, to gain insights and make decisions about complex spatial problems. This review paper explores definitions of spatial analysis from various sources, including examples of its application and different analysis techniques such as Buffer analysis, interpolation, and Kernel density analysis (multi-distance spatial cluster analysis). It also contrasts spatial analysis with non-spatial analysis.

Keywords: aspatial technique, buffer analysis, epidemiology, interpolation

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Authors: Abeer A. Aljohani

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COVID-19 virus spread has been one of the extreme pandemics across the globe. It is also referred to as coronavirus, which is a contagious disease that continuously mutates into numerous variants. Currently, the B.1.1.529 variant labeled as omicron is detected in South Africa. The huge spread of COVID-19 disease has affected several lives and has surged exceptional pressure on the healthcare systems worldwide. Also, everyday life and the global economy have been at stake. This research aims to predict COVID-19 disease in its initial stage to reduce the death count. Machine learning (ML) is nowadays used in almost every area. Numerous COVID-19 cases have produced a huge burden on the hospitals as well as health workers. To reduce this burden, this paper predicts COVID-19 disease is based on the symptoms and medical history of the patient. This research presents a unique architecture for COVID-19 detection using ML techniques integrated with feature dimensionality reduction. This paper uses a standard UCI dataset for predicting COVID-19 disease. This dataset comprises symptoms of 5434 patients. This paper also compares several supervised ML techniques to the presented architecture. The architecture has also utilized 10-fold cross validation process for generalization and the principal component analysis (PCA) technique for feature reduction. Standard parameters are used to evaluate the proposed architecture including F1-Score, precision, accuracy, recall, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and area under curve (AUC). The results depict that decision tree, random forest, and neural networks outperform all other state-of-the-art ML techniques. This achieved result can help effectively in identifying COVID-19 infection cases.

Keywords: supervised machine learning, COVID-19 prediction, healthcare analytics, random forest, neural network

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Authors: Amanda Julia Binay, Patricia Elise Suarez

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Female representation in media is an important subject in the discussion of gender equality, especially in impactful and influential media like film. As the Filipino film industry continues to grow and evolve, the need for analysis on Filipino female representation on screen is imperative. Additionally, there has been limited research made on female representation in the Philippine film scene. Thus, the paper aims to analyze the presence and evolution of female representation in Philippine cinema and compare the findings with that of American films to see how Filipino filmmakers hold their own against the standards of international movements that call for more and better female representation, especially in Hollywood. The participants selected were Filipino and American films released within the years 1975 to 2020 in five (5) year intervals. Twenty (20) critically acclaimed and highest-grossing Filipino films and twenty (20) critically acclaimed and highest-grossing Hollywood films were then subject to the Bechdel and Peirce tests to obtain statistical measures of their female representation. The findings of the study reveal that the presence of female representation in Philippine film history has been consistent and has continued to grow and evolve throughout the years, with strong female leads with vibrant characteristics and diverse stories. However, analysis of female representation regarding American films has shown an extreme lack thereof with more misogynistic, sexist, and limiting ideals. Thus, the study concludes that the state of female representation in Philippine cinema and film industry holds its own when compared to American cinema and film industry and even outperforms it in many aspects of female representation, such as consistent inclusion and depiction of multi-dimensional female leads and female relationships. Hence, the study implies that women’s consistent presence in Philippine cinema mirrors Filipino women’s prominent role in Philippine society and that American cinema must continue to make efforts to change their portrayals of female characters, leads, and relationships to make them more grounded in reality.

Keywords: female representation, gender studies, feminism, philippine cinema, American cinema, bechdel test, peirce test, comparative analysis

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Authors: H. M. El-Askary, S. A. Abd El-Mawla, M. Allali, M. M. El-Hattab, M. El-Raey, A. M. Farahat, M. Kafatos, S. Nickovic, S. K. Park, A. K. Prasad, C. Rakovski, W. Sprigg, D. Struppa, A. Vukovic

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A clear distinction between weather and climate is a necessity because while they are closely related, there are still important differences. Climate change is identified when we compute the statistics of the observed changes in weather over space and time. In this work we will show how the changing climate contribute to the frequency, magnitude and extent of different extreme events using a multi sensor approach with some synergistic modeling activities. We are exploring satellite observations of dust over North Africa, Gulf Region and the Indo Gangetic basin as well as dust versus anthropogenic pollution events over the Delta region in Egypt and Seoul through remote sensing and utilize the behavior of the dust and haze on the aerosol optical properties. Dust impact on the retreat of the glaciers in the Himalayas is also presented. In this study we also focus on the identification and monitoring of a massive dust plume that blew off the western coast of Africa towards the Atlantic on October 8th, 2012 right before the development of Hurricane Sandy. There is evidence that dust aerosols played a non-trivial role in the cyclogenesis process of Sandy. Moreover, a special dust event "An American Haboob" in Arizona is discussed as it was predicted hours in advance because of the great improvement we have in numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events. Therefore we performed a full numerical simulation to that event using the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME–DREAM after generating a mask of the potentially dust productive regions using land cover and vegetation data obtained from satellites. Climate change also contributes to the deterioration of different marine habitats. In that regard we are also presenting some work dealing with change detection analysis of Marine Habitats over the city of Hurghada, Red Sea, Egypt. The motivation for this work came from the fact that coral reefs at Hurghada have undergone significant decline. They are damaged, displaced, polluted, stepped on, and blasted off, in addition to the effects of climate change on the reefs. One of the most pressing issues affecting reef health is mass coral bleaching that result from an interaction between human activities and climatic changes. Over another location, namely California, we have observed that it exhibits highly-variable amounts of precipitation across many timescales, from the hourly to the climate timescale. Frequently, heavy precipitation occurs, causing damage to property and life (floods, landslides, etc.). These extreme events, variability, and the lack of good, medium to long-range predictability of precipitation are already a challenge to those who manage wetlands, coastal infrastructure, agriculture and fresh water supply. Adding on to the current challenges for long-range planning is climate change issue. It is known that La Niña and El Niño affect precipitation patterns, which in turn are entwined with global climate patterns. We have studied ENSO impact on precipitation variability over different climate divisions in California. On the other hand the Nile Delta has experienced lately an increase in the underground water table as well as water logging, bogging and soil salinization. Those impacts would pose a major threat to the Delta region inheritance and existing communities. There has been an undergoing effort to address those vulnerabilities by looking into many adaptation strategies.

Keywords: remote sensing, modeling, long range transport, dust storms, North Africa, Gulf Region, India, California, climate extremes, sea level rise, coral reefs

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Authors: Sudhanshu Kumar, Raghvendra Chandrakar, Arun Chakraborty

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In the ocean, the temperature extremes have the potential to devastate marine habitats, ecosystems together with ensuing socioeconomic consequences. In recent years, these extreme events are more frequent and intense globally and their increasing trend is expected to continue in the upcoming decades. It recently attracted public interest, as well as scientific researchers, which motivates us to analyze the current marine heatwave (MHW) events in the Bay of Bengal region. we have isolated 107 MHW events (above 90th percentile threshold) in this region of the Indian Ocean and investigated the variation in duration, intensity, and frequency of MHW events during our test period (1982-2021). Our study reveals that in the study region the average of three MHW events per year with an increasing linear trend of 1.11 MHW events per decade. In the analysis, we found the longest MHW event which lasted about 99 days, which is far greater than an average MHW event duration. The maximum intensity was 5.29°C (above the climatology-mean), while the mean intensity was 2.03°C. In addition, we observed net heat flux accompanied by anticyclonic eddies to be the primary cause of these events. Moreover, we concluded that these events affect sea surface height and oceanic productivity, highlighting the adverse impact of MHWs on marine ecosystems.

Keywords: marine heatwaves, global warming, climate change, sea surface temperature, marine ecosystem

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Authors: Leszek Chybowski, Artur Bejger, Katarzyna Gawdzińska

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Subversion analysis is a tool used in the TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) methodology. This article introduces the history and describes the process of subversion analysis, as well as function analysis and analysis of the resources, used at the design stage when generating possible undesirable situations. The article charts the course of subversion analysis when applied to a fuel injection nozzle of a marine engine. The work describes the fuel injector nozzle as a technological system and presents principles of analysis for the causes of a cracked tip of the nozzle body. The system is modelled with functional analysis. A search for potential causes of the damage is undertaken and a cause-and-effect analysis for various hypotheses concerning the damage is drawn up. The importance of particular hypotheses is evaluated and the most likely causes of damage identified.

Keywords: complex technical system, fuel injector, function analysis, importance analysis, resource analysis, sabotage analysis, subversion analysis, TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving)

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Authors: Alireza Saidi

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Aside from injuries due to direct contact with hot or cold substances or objects, exposure to extreme temperatures in the workplace involves physical hazards to workers. On the other hand, a poorly acclimatized worker may have reduced performance and alertness and may, therefore, be more vulnerable to the risk of accidents and injuries. Due to the incompatibility of the standards put in place with certain workplaces and the lack of thermoregulation in many protective equipments, thermal strains remain among the physical risks most present in many work sectors. However, many of these problems can be overcome thanks to the potential of intelligent textile technologies allowing intelligent thermoregulation in protective equipment. Nowadays, technologies such as heating elements, cooling elements are applied in products intended for sport and leisure, and research work has been carried out in the integration of temperature sensors and thermal stress detectors in personal protective equipment. However, the usage of all of these technologies in personal protective equipment remains very marginal. This article presents a portrait of the current state of intelligent thermoregulation systems by carrying out a synthesis of technical developments, which is accompanied by a gap analysis of current developments. Thus, the research work necessary for the adaptation and integration of intelligent thermoregulation systems with personal protective equipment is discussed in order to offer a perspective of future developments.

Keywords: personal protective equipment, smart textiles, thermoregulation, thermal strain

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Authors: Marie E. Docken

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At some point in the lifecycle of a country, patterns of political and social unrest of varying degrees are observed. Events involving public disorder or civil disobedience may produce effects that range a wide spectrum of varying outcomes, depending on the level of unrest. Many previous studies, primarily theoretical in nature, have attempted to measure public disorder in answering why or how it occurs in society by examining causal factors or underlying issues in the social or political position of a population. The main objective in doing so is to understand how these activities evolve or seek some predictive capability for the events. In contrast, this research involves the fusion of analytics and social studies to provide more knowledge of the public disorder and civil disobedience intensity in populations. With a greater understanding of the magnitude of these events, it is believed that we may learn how they relate to extreme actions such as mass migration or violence. Upon establishing a model for measuring civil unrest based upon empirical data, a case study on various Latin American countries is performed. Interpretations of historical events are combined with analytical results to provide insights regarding the magnitude and effect of social and political activism.

Keywords: public disorder, civil disobedience, Latin America, metrics, data analysis

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Authors: Erick R. Bandala, Kebret Kebede, Nicole Johnson, Rebecca Murray, Destiny Green, John Mejia, Polioptro Martinez-Austria

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Summertemperature data from Clark County was collected and used to estimate two different heat-related indexes: the heat index (HI) and excess heat factor (EHF). These two indexes were used jointly with data of health-related deaths in Clark County to assess the effect of extreme heat on the exposed population. The trends of the heat indexes were then analyzed for the 2007-2016 decadeandthe correlation between heat wave episodes and the number of heat-related deaths in the area was estimated. The HI showed that this value has increased significantly in June, July, and August over the last ten years. The same trend was found for the EHF, which showed a clear increase in the severity and number of these events per year. The number of heat wave episodes increased from 1.4 per year during the 1980-2016 period to 1.66 per yearduring the 2007-2016 period. However, a different trend was found for heat-wave-event duration, which decreasedfrom an average of 20.4 days during the trans-decadal period (1980-2016) to 18.1 days during the most recent decade(2007-2016). The number of heat-related deaths was also found to increase from 2007 to 2016, with 2016 with the highest number of heat-related deaths. Both HI and the number of deaths showeda normal-like distribution for June, July, and August, with the peak values reached in late July and early August. The average maximum HI values better correlated with the number of deaths registered in Clark County than the EHF, probably because HI uses the maximum temperature and humidity in its estimation,whereas EHF uses the average medium temperature. However, it is worth testing the EHF of the study zone because it was reported to fit properly in the case of heat-related morbidity. For the overall period, 437 heat-related deaths were registered in Clark County, with 20% of the deaths occurring in June, 52% occurring in July, 18% occurring in August,and the remaining 10% occurring in the other months of the year. The most vulnerable subpopulation was people over 50 years old, for which 76% of the heat-related deaths were registered.Most of the cases were associated with heart disease preconditions. The second most vulnerable subpopulation was young adults (20-50), which accounted for 23% of the heat-related deaths. These deathswere associated with alcoholic/illegal drug intoxication.

Keywords: heat, health, hazards, workforce

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Authors: Ábrám Zoltán

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Introduction: Climate change is now a major health risk, and its environmental and health effects have become frequently discussed topics. The consequences of climate change are clearly visible in natural disasters and excess deaths caused by extreme weather conditions. Global warming and the increasingly frequent extreme weather events have direct, immediate effects or long-term, indirect effects on health. For this reason, it is a need to teach the health effects of climate change in medical schools. Material and methods: We looked for various surveys, studies, and reports on the main pathways through which global warming affects health. Medical schools face the challenge of teaching the health implications of climate change and integrating knowledge about the health effects of climate change into medical training. For this purpose, there were organised World Café workshops for three target groups: medical students, academic staff, and practising medical doctors. Results: Among the goals of the research is the development of a detailed curriculum for medical students, which serves to expand their knowledge in basic education. At the same time, the project promotes the increase of teacher motivation and the development of methodological guidelines for university teachers; it also provides further training for practicing doctors. The planned teaching materials will be developed in a format suitable for traditional face-to-face teaching, as well as e-learning teaching materials. CLIMATEMED is a project based on the cooperation of six universities and institutions from four countries, the aim of which is to improve the curriculum and expand knowledge about the health effects of climate change at medical universities. Conclusions: In order to assess the needs, summarize the proposals, to develop the necessary strategy, World Café type, one-and-a-half to two-hour round table discussions will take place separately for medical students, academic staff, and practicing doctors. The CLIMATEMED project can facilitate the integration of knowledge about the health effects of climate change into curricula and can promote practical use. The avoidance of the unwanted effects of global warming and climate change is not only a public matter, but it is also a challenge to change our own lifestyle. It is the responsibility of all of us to protect the Earth's ecosystem and the physical and mental health of ourselves and future generations.

Keywords: climate change, health effects, medical schools, World Café, medical students

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Authors: Apu Kumar Saha, Mrinmoy Majumder

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The increase in the concentration of Green House gases all over the World has induced global warming phenomena whereby the average temperature of the world has aggravated to impact the pattern of climate in different regions. The frequency of extreme event has increased, early onset of season and change in an average amount of rainfall all are engrossing the conclusion that normal pattern of climate is changing. Sophisticated and complex models are prepared to estimate the future situation of the climate in different zones of the Earth. As hydro-energy is directly related to climatic parameters like rainfall and evaporation such energy resources will have to sustain the onset of the climatic abnormalities. The present investigation has tried to assess the impact of climatic abnormalities upon hydropower potential of different regions of the World. In this regard multi-criteria, decision making, and the neural network is used to predict the impact of the change cognitively by an index. The results from the study show that hydro-energy potential of Asian region is mostly vulnerable with respect to other regions of the world. The model results also encourage further application of the index to analyze the impact of climate change on the potential of hydro-energy.

Keywords: hydro-energy potential, neural networks, multi criteria decision analysis, environmental and ecological engineering

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Authors: Jeong Hwa Ryong

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Numerous characters appear in the works of England’s most prominent play writer, William Shakespeare. Most of the time, his male protagonists possess various and complex characteristics throughout the storyline of his work, making it interesting for the readers to analyze their actions in many different aspects. However, some critics argue that unlike male characters, Shakespeare’s female characters are rather more flat and one-sided, pointing out that they are either the extreme version of good or evil. Especially, it is a significant topic to discuss in the modern days, considering the fact that gender stereotype is now a sensitive issue. Starting from such argument, it is important to address their purpose of being in the play and suggest their meaning to the modern readers of today. In this context, this paper analyzes several female characters of Shakespeare’s work by closely examining their actions and lines. The characters analyzed are Ophelia from Hamlet, Cordelia from King Lear, Katherine from The Taming of the Shrew, Goneril from King Lear and Lady Macbeth from Macbeth. Nevertheless, some female protagonists of Shakespeare’s work do not fall in to this category and exceed the limitations of others. Therefore this paper proposes alternative characters such as Juliet from Romeo and Juliet and Portia from The Merchant of Venice that are rather more complex and difficult to include in just one category. By doing so, this paper critically analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of many female characters in Shakespeare’s play.

Keywords: female characters, gender stereotype, William Shakespeare

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