Search results for: extreme streamflow

Authors: Hassan Masoumi, Rashed Alavi, Mahmoud Reza Khorshidian

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In order to measure the water deficit stress effects on seed yield and water productivity of soybean cultivars, a two field experiments wad conducted out via split plot in a randomized complete block design with four replications in 2011 and 2012. Irrigation treatments were three levels (S1; 50, S2; 62.5 and S3; 150 mm) that applied based on evaporation from the ‘class A’ pan. Cultivars were L17, Clean, T.M.S, Williams×Chippewa and M9, too. The results showed that, only extreme water deficit stresses (S3) was reduced number of pods per plants, dry weight, seed yield and also water productivity and water economic productivity, significantly. Among cultivars and at the first and second levels of irrigation (S1, S2) cultivar of L17 and at the third level (S3) cultivar of Wiiliams*Chippwea had the highest seed yield, water productivity and water economic productivity. There were observed a positive and significant correlation between seed yield with number of pods per plants and plants dry weight, too. Also, despite the reduction in water consumption at level of S2 than S1 and due to the lack of a significant reduction in seed yield, water productivity and water economic productivity was also increased, significantly (P < 0.01). All indices of sensitivity and tolerance (SSI, STI and GMP) investigated in this study showed that at the moderate and extreme water deficit stresses (S2, S3), the cultivars of L17 and Wiiliams * Chippwea had the highest tolerance and lowest sensitivity among the cultivars.

Keywords: drought, sensitivity indices, yield components, seed

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Authors: Borzou Faramarzi, Farideh Azimi, Azam Gohardoust, Abbas Ghasemi Ghasemvand, Maryam Mirzaei, Mandana Amani

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In this study, attempts were made to examine and analyze the trend for rainfall changes in Kangan City, Booshehr Province, during the time span 1964 to 2003, using seven rainfall threshold indices based on 50 climate extremes indices approved by WMO–CCL/CLIVAR. These indices include days with heavy precipitations, days with rainfalls, frequency of rainfall threshold values, intensity of rainfall threshold values, percentage of rainfall threshold values, successive days of rainfall, and successive days with no precipitation. Results are indicative of the fact that Kangan City climatic conditions have become more dried than before. Indices days with heavy precipitations and days with rainfalls do not show a certain trend in Kangan City. Frequency, intensity, and percentage of rainfall threshold values in the station under investigation do not indicate a certain trend. In analysis of time series of rainfall extreme indices, generally, it was revealed that Kangan City is influenced by general factors of global warming. Calculation of values for the next 10 years based on ARIMA models demonstrates a continuation of warming trends in Kangan City. On the whole, rainfall conditions in Kangan City have experienced more dry periods compared to the past, the trend which is also observable for next 10 years.

Keywords: climatic indices, climate change, extreme temperature and precipitation, time series

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Authors: Edilene Mercedes Mauer Machado, Carolina Hadassa Marques Karoly, Amanda Britz, Claudineia Brazil

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The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by the anomalous warming of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, can influence weather patterns in various parts of the world, including the occurrence of extreme events such as droughts or heavy rainfall. Studies have suggested a relationship between El Niño and an increase in the incidence of dengue in certain areas. During El Niño periods, there can be changes in climatic conditions, such as increased temperatures and reduced rainfall in certain tropical and subtropical regions. These conditions can favor the reproduction of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the vector for dengue transmission. Research aims to investigate how climate events like El Niño and La Niña can influence the incidence and transmission of dengue. The results have shown that, on average, there was a significant increase in dengue cases during La Niña years compared to years of climatic neutrality, contradicting the findings of Hopp et al. (2015). The study also highlighted that regions affected by El Niño exhibited greater variability in dengue incidence. However, it is important to emphasize that the effects of El Niño on dengue transmission can vary depending on the region and local factors, such as socioeconomic context and implemented control measures, as described by Johansson et al. (2009). Not all areas affected by El Niño will necessarily experience an increase in dengue incidence, and the interaction between climate and disease transmission is complex.

Keywords: anomalous warming, climatic patterns, dengue incidence, extreme events

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Authors: Scott Andersen

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Perhaps simply and rather unadornedly, consciousness is having multiple goals for action and the continuously adjudication of such goals to implement action, referred to as the Maps of Meaning (MoM) Consciousness Theory. The MoM theory triangulates through three parallel corollaries, action (behavior), mechanism (morphology/pathophysiology), and goals (teleology). (1) An organism’s consciousness contains a fluid, nested goals. These goals are not intentionality, but intersectionality, embodiment meeting the world. i.e., Darwinian inclusive fitness or randomization, then survival of the fittest. These goals form via gradual descent under inclusive fitness, the goals being the abstraction of a ‘match’ between the evolutionary environment and organism. Human consciousness implements the brain efficiency hypothesis, genetics, epigenetics, and experience crystallize efficiencies, not necessitating best or objective but fitness, i.e., perceived efficiency based on one’s adaptive environment. These efficiencies are objectively arbitrary, but determine the operation and level of one’s consciousness, termed extreme thrownness. Since inclusive fitness drives efficiencies in physiologic mechanism, morphology and behavior (action) and originates one’s goals, embodiment is necessarily entangled to human consciousness as its the intersection of mechanism or action (both necessitating embodiment) occurring in the world that determines fitness. Perception is the operant process of consciousness and is the consciousness’ de facto goal adjudication process. Goal operationalization is fundamentally efficiency-based via one’s unique neuronal mapping as a byproduct of genetics, epigenetics, and experience. Perception involves information intake and information discrimination, equally underpinned by efficiencies of inclusive fitness via extreme thrownness. Perception isn’t a ‘frame rate,’ but Bayesian priors of efficiency based on one’s extreme thrownness. Consciousness and human consciousness is a modular (i.e., a scalar level of richness, which builds up like building blocks) and dimensionalized (i.e., cognitive abilities become possibilities as emergent phenomena at various modularities, like stratified factors in factor analysis). The meta dimensions of human consciousness seemingly include intelligence quotient, personality (five-factor model), richness of perception intake, and richness of perception discrimination, among other potentialities. Future consciousness research should utilize factor analysis to parse modularities and dimensions of human consciousness and animal models.

Keywords: consciousness, perception, prospection, embodiment

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Authors: Andrzej Wałęga, Marta Cebulska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Wojciech Młocek, Agnieszka Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero

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Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like food production, agriculture, industry, and the ecological conditions of the environment. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and an increasing frequency in dry months, especially in the cold half of the year. The aim of this work is a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and of the highland Region in the Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Also, to our best knowledge, for the first time in this work, drought characteristics analyzed via the SPI were discussed based on the atmospheric circulation calendar. The study region is the Upper Vistula Basin, located in the southern and south-eastern part of Poland. In this work, monthly precipitation from 56 rainfall stations was analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations, and in most cases, a positive trend was observed. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6 and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region and the 9 and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, and anticyclonic West as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, drought, precipitation, SPI, the Upper Vistula Basin

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Authors: Soumya Bhattacharjya, Avinandan Sahoo, Gaurav Datta

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Wind fragility analysis of chimney is often carried out disregarding temperature effect. However, the combined effect of wind and temperature is the most critical limit state for chimney design. Hence, in the present paper, an efficient fragility analysis for concrete chimney is explored under combined wind and temperature effect. Wind time histories are generated by Davenports Power Spectral Density Function and using Weighed Amplitude Wave Superposition Technique. Fragility analysis is often carried out in full Monte Carlo Simulation framework, which requires extensive computational time. Thus, in the present paper, an efficient adaptive metamodelling technique is adopted to judiciously approximate limit state function, which will be subsequently used in the simulation framework. This will save substantial computational time and make the approach computationally efficient. Uncertainty in wind speed, wind load related parameters, and resistance-related parameters is considered. The results by the full simulation approach, conventional metamodelling approach and proposed adaptive metamodelling approach will be compared. Effect of disregarding temperature in wind fragility analysis will be highlighted.

Keywords: adaptive metamodelling technique, concrete chimney, fragility analysis, stochastic extreme wind load, temperature effect

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Authors: Nahlah Abbas, Saleh A. Wasimi, Nadhir Al-Ansari

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The Greater Zab and Lesser Zab are the major tributaries of Tigris River contributing the largest flow volumes into the river. The impacts of climate change on water resources in these basins have not been well addressed. To gain a better understanding of the effects of climate change on water resources of the study area in near future (2049-2069) as well as in distant future (2080-2099), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied. The model was first calibrated for the period from 1979 to 2004 to test its suitability in describing the hydrological processes in the basins. The SWAT model showed a good performance in simulating streamflow. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 for periods of 2049-2069 and 2080-2099 were used to project the climate change impacts on these basins. The results demonstrated a significant decline in water resources availability in the future.

Keywords: Tigris River, climate change, water resources, SWAT

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Nadine Ayasha

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Hail happened in Sukabumi (August 23, 2020), Sekadau (August 22, 2020), and Bogor (September 23, 2020), where this extreme weather phenomenon occurred in the dry season. This study uses the ERA5 reanalysis model data, it aims to examine the vertical velocity impact on the hail occurrence in the dry season, as well as its relation to other weather parameters such as relative humidity, streamline, and wind velocity. Moreover, HCAI product satellite data is used as supporting data for the convective cloud development analysis. Based on the results of graphs, contours, and Hovmoller vertical cut from ERA5 modeling, the vertical velocity values in the 925 Mb-300 Mb layer in Sukabumi, Sekadau, and Bogor before the hail event ranged between -1.2-(-0.2), -1.5-(-0.2), -1-0 Pa/s. A negative value indicates that there is an upward motion from the air mass that trigger the convective cloud growth, which produces hail. It is evidenced by the presence of Cumulonimbus cloud on HCAI product when the hail falls. Therefore, the vertical velocity has significant effect on the hail event. In addition, the relative humidity in the 850-700 Mb layer is quite wet, which ranges from 80-90%. Meanwhile, the streamline and wind velocity in the three regions show the convergence with slowing wind velocity ranging from 2-4 knots. These results show that the upward motion of the vertical velocity is enough to form the wet atmospheric humidity and form a convergence for the growth of the convective cloud, which produce hail in the dry season.

Keywords: hail, extreme weather, vertical velocity, relative humidity, streamline

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Authors: Bezhan Ghvaberidze

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A multiple criteria optimization approach for the solution of the Fuzzy Vehicle Routing Problem (FVRP) is proposed. For the possibility environment the levels of movements between customers are calculated by the constructed simulation interactive algorithm. The first criterion of the bi-criteria optimization problem - minimization of the expectation of total fuzzy travel time on closed routes is constructed for the FVRP. A new, second criterion – maximization of feasibility of movement on the closed routes is constructed by the Choquet finite averaging operator. The FVRP is reduced to the bi-criteria partitioning problem for the so called “promising” routes which were selected from the all admissible closed routes. The convenient selection of the “promising” routes allows us to solve the reduced problem in the real-time computing. For the numerical solution of the bi-criteria partitioning problem the -constraint approach is used. An exact algorithm is implemented based on D. Knuth’s Dancing Links technique and the algorithm DLX. The Main objective was to present the new approach for FVRP, when there are some difficulties while moving on the roads. This approach is called FVRP for extreme conditions (FVRP-EC) on the roads. Also, the aim of this paper was to construct the solving model of the constructed FVRP. Results are illustrated on the numerical example where all Pareto-optimal solutions are found. Also, an approach for more complex model FVRP with time windows was developed. A numerical example is presented in which optimal routes are constructed for extreme conditions on the roads.

Keywords: combinatorial optimization, Fuzzy Vehicle routing problem, multiple objective programming, possibility theory

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

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The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: Nesrine Lenchi, Salima Kebbouche-Gana, Laddada Belaid, Mohamed Lamine Khelfaoui, Mohamed Lamine Gana

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Saline lakes are extreme hypersaline environments that are considered five to ten times saltier than seawater (150 – 300 g L-1 salt concentration). Hypersaline regions differ from each other in terms of salt concentration, chemical composition and geographical location, which determine the nature of inhabitant microorganisms. In order to explore the diversity of moderate and extreme halophiles Bacteria in Chott Tinsilt (East of Algeria), an isolation program was performed. In the first time, water samples were collected from the saltern during pre-salt harvesting phase. Salinity, pH and temperature of the sampling site were determined in situ. Chemical analysis of water sample indicated that Na +and Cl- were the most abundant ions. Isolates were obtained by plating out the samples in complex and synthetic media. In this study, seven halophiles cultures of Bacteria were isolated. Isolates were studied for Gram’s reaction, cell morphology and pigmentation. Enzymatic assays (oxidase, catalase, nitrate reductase and urease), and optimization of growth conditions were done. The results indicated that the salinity optima varied from 50 to 250 g L-1, whereas the optimum of temperature range from 25°C to 35°C. Molecular identification of the isolates was performed by sequencing the 16S rRNA gene. The results showed that these cultured isolates included members belonging to the Halomonas, Staphylococcus, Salinivibrio, Idiomarina, Halobacillus Thalassobacillus and Planococcus genera and what may represent a new bacterial genus.

Keywords: bacteria, Chott, halophilic, 16S rRNA

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Authors: Mahdi Farajzadeh Ajirlou

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The detailed serious adverse effects raised the stresses around the safety of individuals who have gotten COVID-19 vaccines. Numerous verification referrers that disease with COV-19 causes neurological dysfunction in a significant proportion of influenced patients, where these side effects show up seriously amid the disease, and still less is known approximately the potential long-term results for the brain, where the loss of olfaction could be a neurological sign and simple indications of COVID-19. Since publishing effective clinical trial results of mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and injecting it to the volunteers in 2020, numerous reports have emerged approximately about cardiovascular complications followed by the mRNA vaccination. Vaccination-associated adenopathy could be a constant imaging finding after the organization of COVID-19 antibodies that will lead to a symptomatic problem in patients with shown or suspected cancer, in whom it may be vague from dangerous nodal inclusion. In spite of all the benefits and viability of the coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19) antibodies specified in later clinical trials, a few other post-vaccination side impacts, such as lymphadenopathy (LAP), were observed. Also, numerous variables, including financial conditions, have played a critical part in expanding the number of people with COVID-19 infection and also much more side effects in that country. Amid the Coronavirus widespread, Iran has been experiencing extreme sanctions, which has faced this nation with an extreme financial crisis. Additionally, with COVID-19 widespread, there was a developing concern around the abuse of imaging exams extraordinarily within the pediatric populace, which highlights the issues pointed out by this review.

Keywords: radiology, vaccines, COVID-19, side effect

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Authors: Samuel Emeka Anarah, Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Obasi Arinze

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Quantifying the hydrological response due to changes in climate change is imperative for proper management of water resources within a watershed. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Ebony River (UER) watershed, South East Nigeria, was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A climatological time series analysis from 1985 - 2014 using non-parametric test showed significant negative trends in precipitation and relative humidity trend while minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and wind speed showed significant positive trends. Future hypothetical land-use change scenarios (Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4) representing urbanization and conversion of forest to agricultural land were combined with future downscaled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) and simulated in SWAT model. Relative to the Baseline scenario (2005 - 2014), the results showed a decrease in streamflow by 10.29%, 26.20%, 11.80% and 26.72% for Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Model results suggest development of adaptation strategies to cope with the predicted hydrological conditions under future climate change in the watershed.

Keywords: climate change, hydrology, runoff, SWAT model

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Authors: Gabi N. Nehme, Saeed Ghalambor

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The use of titanium fluoride and iron fluoride (TiF3/FeF3) catalysts in combination with polutetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) in plain zinc dialkyldithiophosphate (ZDDP) oil is important for the study of engine tribocomponents and is increasingly a strategy to improve the formation of tribofilm and to provide low friction and excellent wear protection in reduced phosphorus plain ZDDP oil. The influence of surface roughness and the concentration of TiF3/FeF3/PTFE were investigated using bearing steel samples dipped in lubricant solution @100°C for two different heating time durations. This paper addresses the effects of water drop contact angle using different surface finishes after treating them with different lubricant combination. The calculated water drop contact angles were analyzed using Design of Experiment software (DOE) and it was determined that a 0.05 μm Ra surface roughness would provide an excellent TiF3/FeF3/PTFE coating for antiwear resistance as reflected in the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images and the tribological testing under extreme pressure conditions. Both friction and wear performance depend greatly on the PTFE/and catalysts in plain ZDDP oil with 0.05% phosphorous and on the surface finish of bearing steel. The friction and wear reducing effects, which was observed in the tribological tests, indicated a better micro lubrication effect of the 0.05 μm Ra surface roughness treated at 100°C for 24 hours when compared to the 0.1 μm Ra surface roughness with the same treatment.

Keywords: scanning electron microscopy, ZDDP, catalysts, PTFE, friction, wear

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Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

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A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

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Authors: Puzanova Zhanna Vasilyevna, Larina Tatiana Igorevna, Tertyshnikova Anastasia Gennadyevna

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In this day and age, extremism in various forms of its manifestation is a real threat to the world community, the national security of a state and its territorial integrity, as well as to the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens. Extremism, as it is known, in general terms described as a commitment to extreme views and actions, radically denying the existing social norms and rules. Supporters of extremism in the ideological and political struggles often adopt methods and means of psychological warfare, appeal not to reason and logical arguments, but to emotions and instincts of the people, to prejudices, biases, and a variety of mythological designs. They are dissatisfied with the established order and aim at increasing this dissatisfaction among the masses. Youth extremism holds a specific place among the existing forms and types of extremism. In this context in 2015, we conducted a survey among Moscow college and high school students. The aim of this study was to determine how great or small is the difference in understanding and attitudes towards extremism manifestations, inclination and readiness to take part in extremist activities and what causes this predisposition, if it exists. We performed multivariate analysis and found the Russian college and high school students' opinion about the extremism and terrorism situation in our country and also their cognition on these topics. Among other things, we showed, that the level of aggressiveness of young people were not above the average for the whole population. The survey was conducted using the questionnaire method. The sample included college and high school students in Moscow (642 and 382, respectively) by method of random selection. The questionnaire was developed by specialists of RUDN University Sociological Laboratory and included both original questions (projective questions, the technique of incomplete sentences), and the standard test Dayhoff S. to determine the level of internal aggressiveness. It is also used as an experiment, the technique of study option using of FACS and SPAFF to determine the psychotypes and determination of non-verbal manifestations of emotions. The study confirmed the hypothesis that in respondents’ opinion, the level of aggression is higher today than a few years ago. Differences were found in the understanding of and respect for such social phenomena as extremism, terrorism, and their danger and appeal for the two age groups of young people. Theory of psychotypes, SPAFF (specific affect cording system) and FACS (facial action cording system) are considered as additional techniques for the diagnosis of a tendency to extreme views. Thus, it is established that diagnostics of acceptance of extreme views among young people is possible thanks to simultaneous use of knowledge from the different fields of socio-humanistic sciences. The results of the research can be used in a comparative context with other countries and as a starting point for further research in the field, taking into account its extreme relevance.

Keywords: extremism, youth extremism, diagnostics of extremist manifestations, forecast of behavior, sociological polls, theory of psychotypes, FACS, SPAFF

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Authors: Padma Sree Potru

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Abstract: A co-relational descriptive study was conducted to assess the impact of cancer event on self, on family, coping strategies of cancer clients and quality of life among them in G.G.H., Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India. Aim: The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of cancer events on self, on family, coping of clients and quality of life among cancer patients. Methods: 50 cancer patients were selected through random sampling technique. The data were obtained by using impact of events scale, impact on family scale, coping health inventory and WHOQOL-BREF scale. Results: The results revealed that majority (32%) of them were in the age group of 36-45 years, 72% were females, 44% were having the income of Rs. 5001-10000/- per month, 40% were working for daily wage, and 15% were newly diagnosed of cancer. Among 50 cancer patients, 65% had extreme impact of events, 61% shows extreme impact on family, 46% possess minimal coping strategies and 68% had poor quality of life. This study focuses on that there is a strong positive correlation between quality of life and coping behavior r=0.603 and also between impact of event and impact on family r=0.610, but a negative correlation existed between quality of life and impact of events r= -0.201. ANOVA test reveals that there is a significant difference between subscales of impact on family and coping behavior with f values = 3.893, 3.957 respectively. Chi-square highlights that there is a significant association between impact of events with age, occupation and impact on family with duration of illness. Conclusion: Even though cancer is a dreadful disease still there are many emerging treatment modalities and innovative procedures which are focusing on improving the standards of life among cancer clients. But all this can happen only when the clients accepts the reality, increase their willpower and confidence, desire to live, focusing on coping mechanisms and good ongoing support from the family members.

Keywords: impact of event, impact on family, coping, quality of event

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Authors: Cynthia G. Esquerre, Amparo Iris Zavaleta

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Extremophiles constitute a potentially valuable source of proteases for the development of biotechnological processes; however, the number of available studies in the literature is limited compared to mesophilic counterparts. Therefore, in this study, Peruvian halophilic microorganisms were characterized to select suitable proteolytic strains that produce active proteases under exigent conditions. Proteolysis was screened using the streak plate method with gelatin or skim milk as substrates. After that, proteolytic microorganisms were selected for phenotypic characterization and screened by a semi-quantitative proteolytic test using a modified method of diffusion agar. Finally, proteolysis was evaluated using partially purified extracts by ice-cold ethanol precipitation and dialysis. All analyses were carried out over a wide range of NaCl concentrations, pH, temperature and substrates. Of a total of 60 strains, 21 proteolytic strains were selected, of these 19 were extreme halophiles and 2 were moderates. Most proteolytic strains demonstrated differences in their biochemical patterns, particularly in sugar fermentation. A total of 14 microorganisms produced extracellular proteases, 13 were neutral, and one was alkaline showing activity up to pH 9.0. Proteases hydrolyzed gelatin as the most specific substrate. In general, catalytic activity was efficient under a wide range of NaCl (1 to 4 M NaCl), temperature (37 to 55 °C) and after an ethanol exposition performed at -20 °C for 24 hours. In conclusion, this study reported 14 candidates extremely halophiles producing extracellular proteases capable of being stable and active on a wide range of NaCl, temperature and even long lasting ethanol exposition.

Keywords: biotechnological processes, ethanol exposition, extracellular proteases, extremophiles

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Authors: Arindam Chowdhury, Andres Tremante, Mohammadtaghi Moravej, Bodhisatta Hajra, Ioannis Zisis, Peter Irwin

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Extreme wind events, such as hurricanes, have caused significant damage to buildings, resulting in losses worth millions of dollars. The roof of a building is most vulnerable to wind-induced damage due to the high suctions experienced by the roof in extreme wind conditions. Wind turbines fitted to buildings can help generate energy, but to our knowledge, their application to wind load mitigation is not well known. This paper presents results from an experimental study to assess the effect of small wind turbines (developed and patented by the first and second authors) on the wind loads on a low rise building roof. The tests were carried out for an open terrain at the Wall of Wind (WOW) experimental facility at Florida International University (FIU), Miami, Florida, USA, for three cases – bare roof, roof fitted with wind turbines placed closer to the roof edges, and roof with wind turbines placed away from the roof edges. Results clearly indicate that the presence of the wind turbines reduced the mean and peak pressure coefficients (less suction) on the roof when compared to the bare deck case. Furthermore, the peak pressure coefficients were found to be lower (less suction) when the wind turbines were placed closer to the roof, than away from the roof. Flow visualization studies using smoke and gravel clearly showed that the presence of the turbines disrupted the formation of vortices formed by cornering winds, thereby reducing roof suctions and preventing lift off of roof coverings. This study shows that the wind turbines besides generating wind energy, can be used for mitigating wind induced damage to the building roof. Future research must be directed towards understanding the effect of these wind turbines on other roof geometries (e.g. hip/gable) in different terrain conditions.

Keywords: wall of wind, wind loads, wind turbine, building

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Authors: Mohammed Islam, Jungyong Wang, Dong Cheol Seo

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The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is a novel, meshless, and Lagrangian technique based numerical method that has shown promises to accurately predict the hydrodynamics of water and structure interactions in violent flow conditions. The main goal of this study is to build confidence on the versatility of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) based tool, to use it as a complementary tool to the physical model testing capabilities and support research need for the performance evaluation of ships and offshore platforms exposed to an extreme and harsh environment. In the current endeavor, an open-sourced SPH-based tool was used and validated for modeling and predictions of the hydrodynamic interactions of a 6-DOF ship and bergy bits. The study involved the modeling of a modern generic drillship and simplified bergy bits in floating and towing scenarios and in regular and irregular wave conditions. The predictions were validated using the model-scale measurements on a moored ship towed at multiple oblique angles approaching a floating bergy bit in waves. Overall, this study results in a thorough comparison between the model scale measurements and the prediction outcomes from the SPH tool for performance and accuracy. The SPH predicted ship motions and forces were primarily within ±5% of the measurements. The velocity and pressure distribution and wave characteristics over the free surface depicts realistic interactions of the wave, ship, and the bergy bit. This work identifies and presents several challenges in preparing the input file, particularly while defining the mass properties of complex geometry, the computational requirements, and the post-processing of the outcomes.

Keywords: SPH, ship and bergy bit, hydrodynamic interactions, model validation, physical model testing

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Authors: Anwaar Anwar Tayel

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Background: Rheumatic arthritis (RA) affect all aspects of patients' life, lead to various degrees of disability, and ultimately has a profound impact on the social, economic, psychological, and sexual aspects of the patient's life. Aim of the study: Identify physical, psychological, and sexual implications of rheumatoid arthritis among women in reproductive age. In addition to investigating the correlations between physical functional disability, psychological problems, and sexual dysfunction.Settings: The study was conducted at Rheumatology Clinic at the Main University Hospital of Alexandria. Subjects: Purposive sample was chosen from women patients with rheumatoid arthritis to be subjects of this study (n=250). Tools: Four tools were used to collect data. Tool I: Socio-demographic questionnaire. Tool II: Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ- DI). Tool III: Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS). Tool IV: The Sexual Dysfunction Questionnaire (SDQ) Results: The majority of the studied women suffer from severe physical disability, extreme level of depression, anxiety, and about half of them had an extreme level of stress. Also, the majority of the studied women had a severe level of sexual dysfunction. Also, statistically significant correlations between women's physical disability index, psychological problems, and sexual dysfunction were detected. Conclusion: The findings from this study confirm that women patients with RA suffer from multiple negative implications on the physical, psychological and sexual functions. Recommendations: Provide ongoing support to the patients from the time of diagnosis throughout their care and management. To help them to manage their pain and disabilities, improve their sexual function, promote their mental health, and optimize psychosocial functioning

Keywords: pysical, spycholgical, sexual, implication, rheumatic arthritis

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Authors: Atbin Mahabbati, Jason Beringer, Matthias Leopold

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To address the global challenges of climate and environmental changes, there is a need for quantifying and reducing uncertainties in environmental data, including observations of carbon, water, and energy. Global eddy covariance flux tower networks (FLUXNET), and their regional counterparts (i.e., OzFlux, AmeriFlux, China Flux, etc.) were established in the late 1990s and early 2000s to address the demand. Despite the capability of eddy covariance in validating process modelling analyses, field surveys and remote sensing assessments, there are some serious concerns regarding the challenges associated with the technique, e.g. data gaps and uncertainties. To address these concerns, this research has developed an ensemble model to fill the data gaps of CO₂ flux to avoid the limitations of using a single algorithm, and therefore, provide less error and decline the uncertainties associated with the gap-filling process. In this study, the data of five towers in the OzFlux Network (Alice Springs Mulga, Calperum, Gingin, Howard Springs and Tumbarumba) during 2013 were used to develop an ensemble machine learning model, using five feedforward neural networks (FFNN) with different structures combined with an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) algorithm. The former methods, FFNN, provided the primary estimations in the first layer, while the later, XGB, used the outputs of the first layer as its input to provide the final estimations of CO₂ flux. The introduced model showed slight superiority over each single FFNN and the XGB, while each of these two methods was used individually, overall RMSE: 2.64, 2.91, and 3.54 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ respectively (3.54 provided by the best FFNN). The most significant improvement happened to the estimation of the extreme diurnal values (during midday and sunrise), as well as nocturnal estimations, which is generally considered as one of the most challenging parts of CO₂ flux gap-filling. The towers, as well as seasonality, showed different levels of sensitivity to improvements provided by the ensemble model. For instance, Tumbarumba showed more sensitivity compared to Calperum, where the differences between the Ensemble model on the one hand and the FFNNs and XGB, on the other hand, were the least of all 5 sites. Besides, the performance difference between the ensemble model and its components individually were more significant during the warm season (Jan, Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, and Dec) compared to the cold season (Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, and Sep) due to the higher amount of photosynthesis of plants, which led to a larger range of CO₂ exchange. In conclusion, the introduced ensemble model slightly improved the accuracy of CO₂ flux gap-filling and robustness of the model. Therefore, using ensemble machine learning models is potentially capable of improving data estimation and regression outcome when it seems to be no more room for improvement while using a single algorithm.

Keywords: carbon flux, Eddy covariance, extreme gradient boosting, gap-filling comparison, hybrid model, OzFlux network

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Authors: Said Ali Al-Hadhrami, Amer Ibrahim Al-Omari

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In this paper, Bayesian estimation for the mean of exponential distribution is considered using Moving Extremes Ranked Set Sampling (MERSS). Three priors are used; Jeffery, conjugate and constant using MERSS and Simple Random Sampling (SRS). Some properties of the proposed estimators are investigated. It is found that the suggested estimators using MERSS are more efficient than its counterparts based on SRS.

Keywords: Bayesian, efficiency, moving extreme ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: S. Chuenchooklin

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This research was conducted in the Lower Ping River Basin downstream of the Bhumibol Dam and the Lower Wang River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. Most of the tributary streams of the Ping can be considered as ungauged catchments. There are 10- pumping station installation at both river banks of the Ping in Tak Province. Recently, most of them could not fully operate due to the water amount in the river below the level that would be pumping, even though included water from the natural river and released flow from the Bhumibol Dam. The aim of this research was to increase the performance of those pumping stations using weir projects in the Ping. Therefore, the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) was applied to study the hydraulic behavior of water surface profiles in the Ping River with both cases of existing conditions and proposed weirs during the violent flood in 2011 and severe drought in 2013. Moreover, the hydrologic modeling system (HMS) was applied to simulate lateral streamflow hydrograph from ungauged catchments of the Ping. The results of HEC-RAS model calibration with existing conditions in 2011 showed best trial roughness coefficient for the main channel of 0.026. The simulated water surface levels fitted to observation data with R2 of 0.8175. The model was applied to 3 proposed cascade weirs with 2.35 m in height and found surcharge water level only 0.27 m higher than the existing condition in 2011. Moreover, those weirs could maintain river water levels and increase of those pumping performances during less river flow in 2013.

Keywords: HEC-RAS, HMS, pumping stations, cascade weirs

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Ya-Ching Fu, An-Kuo Chou, Boon-Fatt Tan, Chi-Nien Chen, Wen-Chien Yang, Pou-Leng Cheong

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Blind oro-/naso-pharyngeal suction and feeding tube placement are very common practices in neonatal intensive care unit. Though esophageal perforation is a rare complication of these instrumentations, its prevalence is highest in extremely premature neonates. Due to its association with significant morbidity (including respiratory deterioration, pneumothorax, and sepsis) and even mortality, it is an important issue to prevent this iatrogenic complication in the field of premature care. We demonstrate an esophageal perforation in an extreme-low-birth-weight neonate after oro-gastric tube placement. This female baby weighing 680 grams was delivered by caesarean section at 25 weeks of gestational age. She initially received oro-tracheal intubation with mechanical ventilation which was smoothly weaned to non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation at 7-day-old. However, after insertion of a 5-French oro-gastric tube, the baby’s condition suddenly worsened with apnea requiring mechanical ventilation. Her chest radiogram showed the oro-gastric tube in right pleural space, and thus another oro-gastric tube was replaced, and its position was radiographically confirmed. The malpositioned tube was then removed. The baby received 2-week course of intravenous antibiotics for her esophageal perforation. Feeding was then reintroduced and increased to full feeds in a smooth course. She was discharged at 107-day-old. Esophageal perforation in newborn is very rare. Sudden respiratory deterioration in a neonate after naso-/oro-gastric tube placement should alarm us to consider esophageal perforation, and further radiological investigation is required for the diagnosis. Tube materials, patient condition, and age are major risk factors of esophageal perforation. The use of softer tube material, such as silicone, in extreme premature baby might prevent this fetal complication.

Keywords: esophageal perforation, preterm, newborn, feeding tube

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Yu-Che Cheng, Min-Lih Chang, Ke-Hao Cheng, Chuan-Cheng Wang

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Taiwan is an island located along the southeastern coast of the Asian continent, located between Japan and the Philippines. It is surrounded by the sea on all sides. However, due to the presence of the Central Mountain Range, the rivers on the east and west coasts of Taiwan are relatively short. This geographical feature results in a phenomenon where, despite having rainfall that is 2.6 times the world average, 58.5% of the rainwater flows into the ocean. Moreover, approximately 80% of the annual rainfall occurs between May and October, leading to distinct wet and dry periods. To address these challenges, Taiwan relies on large reservoirs, storage ponds, and groundwater extraction for water resource allocation. It is necessary to construct water treatment facilities at suitable locations to provide the population with a stable and reliable water supply. In general, the construction of a new water treatment plant requires careful planning and evaluation. The process involves acquiring land and issuing contracts for construction in a sequential manner. With the increasing severity of global warming and climate change, there is a heightened risk of extreme hydrological events and severe water situations in the future. In cases of urgent water supply needs in a region, relying on traditional lengthy processes for constructing water treatment plants might not be sufficient to meet the urgent demand. Therefore, this study aims to explore the use of simplified water treatment procedures and the construction of rapid "temporary water treatment plants" to tackle the challenges posed by extreme climate conditions (such as a century-long drought) and situations where water treatment plant construction cannot keep up with the pace of water source development.

Keywords: temporary water treatment plant, emergency water supply, construction site groundwater, drought

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Authors: Xiaofang Wei

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Harmful Algal Blooms are a recurrent disturbing occurrence in Lake Erie that has caused significant negative impacts on water quality and aquatic ecosystem around Great Lakes areas in the United States. Targeting the recent HAB events in western Lake Erie, this paper utilizes satellite imagery and hydrological modeling to monitor HAB cyanobacteria blooms and analyze the impacts of agricultural activities from Maumee watershed, the biggest watershed of Lake Erie and agriculture dominant.SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) Model for Maumee watershed was established with DEM, land use data, crop data layer, soil data, and weather data, and calibrated with Maumee River gauge stations data for streamflow and nutrients. Fast Line-of-sight Atmospheric Analysis of Hypercubes (FLAASH) was applied to remove atmospheric attenuation and cyanobacteria Indices were calculated from Landsat OLI imagery to study the intensity of HAB events in the years 2015, 2017, and 2019. The agricultural practice and nutrients management within the Maumee watershed was studied and correlated with HAB cyanobacteria indices to study the relationship between HAB intensity and nutrient loadings. This study demonstrates that hydrological models and satellite imagery are effective tools in HAB monitoring and modeling in rivers and lakes.

Keywords: harmful algal bloom, landsat OLI imagery, SWAT, HAB cyanobacteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 144