Search results for: extended binomial model

Authors: Aimad Oulebsir, Toufik Chaabane, Sivasankar Venkatramann, Andre Darchen, Rachida Maachi

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The objective of this study is to propose a model for the prediction of the mechanism transfer of the trivalent ions through a nanofiltration membrane (NF) by introduction of the polarization concentration phenomenon and to study its influence on the retention of salts. This model is the combination of the Nernst-Planck equation and the equations of the film theory. This model is characterized by two transfer parameters: Reflection coefficient s and solute permeability Ps which are estimated numerically. The thickness of the boundary layer, δ, solute concentration at the membrane surface, Cm, and concentration profile in the polarization layer have also been estimated. The mathematical formulation suggested was established. The retentions of trivalent salts are estimated and compared with the experimental results. A comparison between the results with and without phenomena of polarization of concentration is made and the thickness of boundary layer alimentation side was given. Experimental and calculated results are shown to be in good agreement. The model is then success fully extended to experimental data reported in the literature.

Keywords: nanofiltration, concentration polarisation, chromium salts, mass transfer

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Authors: Azzedine Abdedou, Khedidja Bouhadef

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The present study is an analysis of the forced convection heat transfer in porous channel with an oriented jet at the inlet with uniform velocity and temperature distributions. The upper wall is insulated when the bottom one is kept at constant temperature higher than that of the fluid at the entrance. The dynamic field is analysed by the Brinkman-Forchheimer extended Darcy model and the thermal field is traduced by the energy one equation model. The numerical solution of the governing equations is obtained by using the finite volume method. The results mainly concern the effect of Reynolds number, jet angle and thermal conductivity ratio on the flow structure and local and average Nusselt numbers evolutions.

Keywords: forced convection, porous media, oriented confined jet, fluid mechanics

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Authors: Y. S. Zhou, C. R. Li, L. L. Tang, C. X. Gao, D. J. Wang, Y. Y. Guo

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Triangular trihedral corner reflector (CR) has been widely used as point target for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) calibration and image quality assessment. The additional “tip” of the triangular plate does not contribute to the reflector’s theoretical RCS and if it interacts with a perfectly reflecting ground plane, it will yield an increase of RCS at the radar bore-sight and decrease the accuracy of SAR calibration and image quality assessment. Regarding this problem, two types of CRs were manufactured. One was the hexagonal trihedral CR. It is a self-illuminating CR with relatively small plate edge length, while large edge length usually introduces unexpected edge diffraction error. The other was the triangular trihedral CR with extended bottom plate which considers the effect of ‘tip’ into the total RCS. In order to assess the performance of the two types of new CRs, flight campaign over the National Calibration and Validation Site for High Resolution Remote Sensors was carried out. Six hexagonal trihedral CRs and two bottom-extended trihedral CRs, as well as several traditional triangular trihedral CRs, were deployed. KOMPSAT-5 X-band SAR image was acquired for the performance analysis of the hexagonal trihedral CRs. C-band airborne SAR images were acquired for the performance analysis of the bottom-extended trihedral CRs. The analysis results showed that the impulse response function of both the hexagonal trihedral CRs and bottom-extended trihedral CRs were much closer to the ideal sinc-function than the traditional triangular trihedral CRs. The flight campaign results validated the advantages of new types of CRs and they might be useful in the future SAR calibration mission.

Keywords: synthetic aperture radar, calibration, corner reflector, KOMPSAT-5

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Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

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In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, fokker-planck equation, fourier spectral method, finite difference method

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Authors: Chen Zhang, Bernhard Schwarz-Röhr, Alexander Härting

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To acquire accurate ship motions at the center of gravity, a single low-cost inertial sensor is utilized and applied on board to measure ship oscillating motions. As observations, the three axes accelerations and three axes rotational rates provided by the sensor are used. The mathematical model of processing the observation data includes determination of the distance vector between the sensor and the center of gravity in x, y, and z directions. After setting up the transfer matrix from sensor’s own coordinate system to the ship’s body frame, an extended Kalman filter is applied to deal with nonlinearities between the ship motion in the body frame and the observation information in the sensor’s frame. As a side effect, the method eliminates sensor noise and other unwanted errors. Results are not only roll and pitch, but also linear motions, in particular heave and surge at the center of gravity. For testing, we resort to measurements recorded on a small vessel in a well-defined sea state. With response amplitude operators computed numerically by a commercial software (Seaway), motion characteristics are estimated. These agree well with the measurements after processing with the suggested method.

Keywords: extended Kalman filter, nonlinear estimation, sea trial, ship motion estimation

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Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

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The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

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Authors: Michelle Eliane Hernández-García, Angélica Lozano

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The traffic accidents study usually contemplates the relation between factors such as the type of vehicle, its operation, and the road infrastructure. Traffic accidents can be explained by different factors, which have a greater or lower relevance. Two zones are studied, a mixed industrial zone and the extended zone of it. The first zone has mainly residential (57%), and industrial (23%) land uses. Trucks are mainly on the roads where industries are located. Four sensors give information about traffic and speed on the main roads. The extended zone (which includes the first zone) has mainly residential (47%) and mixed residential (43%) land use, and just 3% of industrial use. The traffic mix is composed mainly of non-trucks. 39 traffic and speed sensors are located on main roads. The traffic mix in a mixed land use zone, could be related to traffic accidents. To understand this relation, it is required to identify the elements of the traffic mix which are linked to traffic accidents. Models that attempt to explain what factors are related to traffic accidents have faced multiple methodological problems for obtaining robust databases. Poisson regression models are used to explain the accidents. The objective of the Poisson analysis is to estimate a vector to provide an estimate of the natural logarithm of the mean number of accidents per period; this estimate is achieved by standard maximum likelihood procedures. For the estimation of the relation between traffic accidents and the traffic mix, the database is integrated of eight variables, with 17,520 observations and six vectors. In the model, the dependent variable is the occurrence or non-occurrence of accidents, and the vectors that seek to explain it, correspond to the vehicle classes: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, and C6, respectively, standing for car, microbus, and van, bus, unitary trucks (2 to 6 axles), articulated trucks (3 to 6 axles) and bi-articulated trucks (5 to 9 axles); in addition, there is a vector for the average speed of the traffic mix. A Poisson model is applied, using a logarithmic link function and a Poisson family. For the first zone, the Poisson model shows a positive relation among traffic accidents and C6, average speed, C3, C2, and C1 (in a decreasing order). The analysis of the coefficient shows a high relation with bi-articulated truck and bus (C6 and the C3), indicating an important participation of freight trucks. For the expanded zone, the Poisson model shows a positive relation among traffic accidents and speed average, biarticulated truck (C6), and microbus and vans (C2). The coefficients obtained in both Poisson models shows a higher relation among freight trucks and traffic accidents in the first industrial zone than in the expanded zone.

Keywords: freight transport, industrial zone, traffic accidents, traffic mix, trucks

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Authors: Yushuai Wang, Feng Xu, Junbo Tan, Xueqian Wang, Bin Liang

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In this paper, a sensor fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme using robust model predictive control (RMPC) and set theoretic fault detection and isolation (FDI) is extended to linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. First, a group of set-valued observers are designed for passive fault detection (FD) and the observer gains are obtained through minimizing the size of invariant set of state estimation-error dynamics. Second, an input set for fault isolation (FI) is designed offline through set theory for actively isolating faults after FD. Third, an RMPC controller based on state estimation for LPV systems is designed to control the system in the presence of disturbance and measurement noise and tolerate faults. Besides, an FTC algorithm is proposed to maintain the plant operate in the corresponding mode when the fault occurs. Finally, a numerical example is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Keywords: fault detection, linear parameter varying, model predictive control, set theory

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Authors: Sayed Kifayat Shah, Tang Zhongjun, Mohammad Ahmad, Sohaib Mostafa

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This article investigates consumer’s intention to shift to 5G in the light of disruptive technology innovation. To switch from 4G (Existing) technology to 5G (Disruptive) technology requires not just economic benefits and costs but involves other values too, which aren't yet experienced in the framework of technology innovation. This study extended the valued adaptation (VAM) model by proposing the sustainability values (SVs) construct. The model was examined on data from 361 Chinese consumers using the partial least squares-based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) technique. The outcomes prove the significant correlation of sustainability values (SVs) which influences consumer’s switching intentions toward 5G disruptive technology. The findings of this research will be helpful to telecoms firms in developing consumer retention strategies. Some limitations and the importance of the research for scholars and managers are also discussed.

Keywords: value adaptation model (VAM), sustainability values (SVs), disruptive 5G technology, switching intentions (SI), partial least squares-based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM)

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Authors: Morgan Kuligowski, Marientina Gotsis

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Extended reality (XR) technologies share an intertwined history with spaceflight and innovation. New advancements in XR technologies offer expanding possibilities to advance the future of human space exploration with increased crew autonomy. This paper seeks to identify implementation gaps between existing and proposed XR space applications to inform future mission planning. A review of virtual reality, augmented reality, and mixed reality technologies implemented aboard the International Space Station revealed a total of 16 flown investigations. A secondary set of ground-tested XR human spaceflight applications were systematically retrieved from literature sources. The two sets of XR technologies, those flown and those existing in the literature were analyzed to characterize application domains and device types. Comparisons between these groups revealed untapped application areas for XR to support crew psychological health, in-flight training, and extravehicular operations on future flights. To fill these roles, integrating XR technologies with advancements in biometric sensors and machine learning tools is expected to transform crew capabilities.

Keywords: augmented reality, extended reality, international space station, mixed reality, virtual reality

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Authors: Samira Cherid, Samir Bentata, Feyza Zahira Meghoufel, Yamina Sefir, Sabria Terkhi, Fatima Bendahma, Bouabdellah Bouadjemi, Ali Zitouni

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Using the transfer-matrix technique and the Kronig Penney model, we numerically and analytically investigate the effect of short-range correlated disorder in random dimer model (RDM) on transmission properties of light in one dimension photonic crystals made of three different materials. Such systems consist of two different structures randomly distributed along the growth direction, with the additional constraint that one kind of these layers appears in pairs. It is shown that the one-dimensional random dimer photonic crystals support two types of extended modes. By shifting of the dimer resonance toward the host fundamental stationary resonance state, we demonstrate the existence of the ballistic response in these systems.

Keywords: photonic crystals, disorder, correlation, transmission

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Carlson Murray, Ali Lazrak

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Robust experimental evidence of systematic violations of expected utility (EU) establishes that individuals facing risk overweight utility from low probability gains and losses when making choices. These findings motivated development of models of preferences with probability weighting functions, such as rank dependent utility (RDU). We solve for the optimal investing strategy of an RDU investor in a dynamic binomial setting from which we derive implications for investing behavior. We show that relative to EU investors with constant relative risk aversion, commonly measured probability weighting functions produce optimal RDU terminal wealth with significant downside protection and upside exposure. We additionally find that in contrast to EU investors, RDU investors optimally choose a portfolio that contains fair bets that provide payo↵s that can be interpreted as lottery outcomes or exposure to idiosyncratic returns. In a calibrated version of the model, we calculate that RDU investors would be willing to pay 5% of their initial wealth for the freedom to trade away from an optimal EU wealth allocation. The dynamic trading strategy that supports the optimal wealth allocation implies portfolio weights that are independent of initial wealth but requires higher risky share after good stock return histories. Optimal trading also implies the possibility of non-participation when historical returns are poor. Our model fills a gap in the literature by providing new quantitative and qualitative predictions that can be tested experimentally or using data on household wealth and portfolio choice.

Keywords: behavioral finance, probability weighting, portfolio choice

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Authors: Gilberto Goracci, Fabio Curti

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This work presents a robust, light, and inexpensive algorithm to perform autonomous orbit determination using onboard magnetometer data in real-time. Magnetometers are low-cost and reliable sensors typically available on a spacecraft for attitude determination purposes, thus representing an interesting choice to perform real-time orbit determination without the need to add additional sensors to the spacecraft itself. Magnetic field measurements can be exploited by Extended/Unscented Kalman Filters (EKF/UKF) for orbit determination purposes to make up for GPS outages, yielding errors of a few kilometers and tens of meters per second in the position and velocity of a spacecraft, respectively. While this level of accuracy shows that Kalman filtering represents a solid baseline for autonomous orbit determination, it is not enough to provide a reliable state estimation in the absence of GPS signals. This work combines the solidity and reliability of the EKF with the versatility of a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to further increase the precision of the state estimation. Deep learning models, in fact, can grasp nonlinear relations between the inputs, in this case, the magnetometer data and the EKF state estimations, and the targets, namely the true position, and velocity of the spacecraft. The model has been pre-trained on Sun-Synchronous orbits (SSO) up to 2126 kilometers of altitude with different initial conditions and levels of noise to cover a wide range of possible real-case scenarios. The orbits have been propagated considering J2-level dynamics, and the geomagnetic field has been modeled using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) coefficients up to the 13th order. The training of the module can be completed offline using the expected orbit of the spacecraft to heavily reduce the onboard computational burden. Once the spacecraft is launched, the model can use the GPS signal, if available, to fine-tune the parameters on the actual orbit onboard in real-time and work autonomously during GPS outages. In this way, the provided module shows versatility, as it can be applied to any mission operating in SSO, but at the same time, the training is completed and eventually fine-tuned, on the specific orbit, increasing performances and reliability. The results provided by this study show an increase of one order of magnitude in the precision of state estimate with respect to the use of the EKF alone. Tests on simulated and real data will be shown.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, extended Kalman filter, orbit determination, magnetic field

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Authors: Laraib Niaz

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This paper analyzes the ways in which education and economic deprivation are linked to terrorism in Pakistan using data for terrorist incidents from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). It employs the technique of negative binomial regression for the years between 1990 and 2013, presenting evidence for a positive association between education and terrorism. Conversely, a negative correlation with economic deprivation is signified in the results. The study highlights the element of radicalization as witnessed in the curriculum and textbooks of public schools as a possible reason for extremism, which in turn may lead to terrorism.

Keywords: education, Pakistan, terrorism, poverty

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Authors: Sarah K. Amer, Walaa Alaa

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Epilepsy is an important cause of mortality and morbidity, according to WHO statistics. It is characterized by the presence of frequent seizures occurring more than 24 hours apart. Carbamazepine (CBZ) is considered first-line treatment for epilepsy. However, reports have shown that CBZ oral formulations failed to achieve optimum systemic delivery, minimize side effects, and enhance patient compliance. Besides, the literature has signified the lack of therapeutically efficient CBZ transdermal formulation and the urge for its existence owing to its ease and convenient method of application and highlighted capability to attain higher bioavailability and more extended-release profiles compared to conventional oral CBZ tablets. This work aims to prepare CBZ microspheres (MS) that are embedded in a transdermal gel containing Vitamin B to be co-delivered. MS were prepared by emulsion-solvent diffusion method using Eudragit S as core forming polymer and hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) polymer. The MS appeared to be spherical and porous in nature, offering a large surface area and high entrapment efficiency of CBZ. The transdermal gel was prepared by solvent-evaporation technique using HPMC that, offered high entrapment efficiency and Eudragit S that provided an extended-release profile. Polyethylene glycol, Span 80 and Pyridoxine were also added. Data indicated that combinations of CBZ with pyridoxine can reduce epileptic seizures without affecting motor coordination. Extended-release profiles were evident for this system. The patches were furthermore tested for thickness, moisture content, folding endurance, spreadability and viscosity measurements. This novel pharmaceutical formulation would be of great influence on seizure control, offering better therapeutic effects.

Keywords: epilepsy, carbamazepine, pyridoxine, transdermal

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Authors: Zatil Athaillah, Anastasia Devi, Dian Muzdalifah, Wirasuwasti Nugrahani, Linar Udin

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During tempe fermentation, some chemical changes occurred and they contributed to sensory, appearance, and health benefits of soybeans. Many studies on health properties of tempe have specialized on their isoflavones. In this study, other components of tempe, particularly water soluble chemicals, was investigated for their biofunctionality. The study was focused on the ability to suppress MCF-7 breast cancer cell growth and antioxidant activity, as expressed by DPPH radical scavenging activity, total phenols and total flavonoids, of the water extracts. Fermentation time of tempe was extended up to 120 hr to increase the possibility to find the functional components. Extraction yield and soluble nitrogen content were also quantified as accompanying data. Our findings suggested that yield of water extraction of tempe increased as fermentation was extended up to 120 hr, except for a slight decrease at 72 hr. Water extracts of tempe showed inhibition of MCF-7 breast cancer cell growth, as shown by lower IC50 values when compared to control (unfermented soybeans). Among the varied fermentation timescales, 60-hr period showed the highest activity (IC50 of 8.7 ± 4.95 µg/ml). The anticancer activity of extracts obtained from different fermentation time was positively correlated with total soluble nitrogens, but less relevant with antioxidant data. During 48-72 hr fermentation, at which cancer suppression activity was significant, the antioxidant properties from the three assays were not higher than control. These findings indicated that water extracts of tempe from extended fermentation could inhibit breast cancer cell growth but further study to determine the mechanism and compounds that play important role in the activity should be conducted.

Keywords: tempe, anticancer, antioxidant, phenolic compounds

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Authors: M. Eskandarighadi, C. R. McGann

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It is observed from past experiences of earthquakes that local site conditions can significantly affect the strong ground motion characteristics experience at the site. One-dimensional seismic site response analysis is the most common approach for investigating site response. This approach assumes that soil is homogeneous and infinitely extended in the horizontal direction. Therefore, tying side boundaries together is one way to model this behavior, as the wave passage is assumed to be only vertical. However, 1D analysis cannot capture the 2D nature of wave propagation, soil heterogeneity, and 2D soil profile with features such as inclined layer boundaries. In contrast, 2D seismic site response modeling can consider all of the mentioned factors to better understand local site effects on strong ground motions. 2D wave propagation and considering that the soil profile on the two sides of the model may not be identical clarifies the importance of a boundary condition on each side that can minimize the unwanted reflections from the edges of the model and input appropriate loading conditions. Ideally, the model size should be sufficiently large to minimize the wave reflection, however, due to computational limitations, increasing the model size is impractical in some cases. Another approach is to employ free-field boundary conditions that take into account the free-field motion that would exist far from the model domain and apply this to the sides of the model. This research focuses on implementing free-field boundary conditions in OpenSees for 2D site response analysisComparisons are made between 1D models and 2D models with various boundary conditions, and details and limitations of the developed free-field boundary modeling approach are discussed.

Keywords: boundary condition, free-field, opensees, site response analysis, wave propagation

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Authors: Edward C. W. Chan, Benny C. F. Cheung

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In the knowledge economy, the financial indicator is not the unique instrument to gauge the performance of a company. The role of intellectual capital contributing to the company performance is increasing. To measure the company performance due to intellectual capital, the value-added intellectual capital (VAIC) model is adopted to measure the intellectual capital utilisation efficiency of the subject companies. The purpose of this study is to review the readiness of measuring intellectual capital for the Hong Kong listed companies in the property development and property investment industry by using VAIC model. This study covers the financial reports from the representative Hong Kong listed property development companies and property investment companies in the period 2014-2019. The findings from this study indicated the industry is ready for IC measurement employing VAIC framework but not yet ready for using the extended VAIC model.

Keywords: intellectual capital, intellectual capital measurement, property development, property investment, Skandia navigator, VAIC

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Authors: Kamel Al-Khaled

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Reaction-diffusion equations are commonly used in population biology to model the spread of biological species. In this paper, we propose a fractional reaction-diffusion equation, where the classical second derivative diffusion term is replaced by a fractional derivative of order less than two. Based on the symbolic computation system Mathematica, Adomian decomposition method, developed for fractional differential equations, is directly extended to derive explicit and numerical solutions of space fractional reaction-diffusion equations. The fractional derivative is described in the Caputo sense. Finally, the recent appearance of fractional reaction-diffusion equations as models in some fields such as cell biology, chemistry, physics, and finance, makes it necessary to apply the results reported here to some numerical examples.

Keywords: fractional partial differential equations, reaction-diffusion equations, adomian decomposition, biological species

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Authors: Charles Mota Possatti Júnior, André Schwanz de Lima, Maurício Vicente Donadon, Alfredo Rocha de Faria

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An interlaminar damage model is combined with a beam element formulation based on global-local superposition to assess delamination in composite laminates. The variations in the mechanical properties in the laminate, generated by the presence of delamination, are calculated as a function of the displacements in the interface layers. The global-local superposition of displacement fields ensures the zig-zag behaviour of stresses and displacement, and the number of degrees of freedom (DOFs) is independent of the number of layers. The displacements and stresses are calculated as a function of DOFs commonly used in traditional beam elements. Finally, the finite element(FE) formulation is extended to handle cases of different thicknesses, and then the FE model predictions are compared with results obtained from analytical solutions and commercial finite element codes.

Keywords: delamination, global-local superposition theory, single beam element, zig-zag, interlaminar damage model

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Recurrent infant diarrhea is studied using daily data collected in Salvador, Brazil over one year and three months. A logistic regression model is fitted instead of Aalen's additive model using the same covariates that were used in the analysis with the additive model. The model gives reasonably similar results to that using additive regression model. In addition, the problem with the estimated conditional probabilities not being constrained between zero and one in additive model is solved here. Also martingale residuals that have been used to judge the goodness of fit for the additive model are shown to be useful for judging the goodness of fit of the logistic model.

Keywords: additive model, cumulative probabilities, infant diarrhoea, recurrent event

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Authors: Chen Xi, Lao Xuerui, Li Junjie, Jiang Yike, Wang Hanwei, Zeng Zihao

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To further promote the development of smart cities, the microscopic "nerve endings" of the City Intelligent Model (CIM) are extended to be more sensitive. In this paper, we develop a pedestrian trajectory twin terminal based on the CIM and CNN technology. It also uses 5G networks, architectural and geoinformatics technologies, convolutional neural networks, combined with deep learning networks for human behaviour recognition models, to provide empirical data such as 'pedestrian flow data and human behavioural characteristics data', and ultimately form spatial performance evaluation criteria and spatial performance warning systems, to make the empirical data accurate and intelligent for prediction and decision making.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, CIM, artificial intelligence, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Emad Bataineh, Sara Al-Mutawa

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The primary focus of this study is to investigate and identify the perceptions of potential end users relating to factors which impact on e-services acceptance. Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) has been adopted in this study as it can be extended when technologies are introduced. This research validates the developed TAM model and evaluates the variance of the outcome variable (acceptance of e-services). Five factors were adopted as determinants of acceptance of e-services: ease of use, security, trust, web skills, and language. The study was undertaken in the General Directorate of Residency and Foreigners Affairs (GDRFA) in the UAE. A quantitative survey methodology was adopted in this study, which surveyed 466 customers who use the GDRFA e-services. The overall findings revealed that security language, web skills and support significantly affected ease of use and perceived usefulness. However, the trust doesn’t affect the ease of use. Further, ease of use significantly affects intention to use and perceived usefulness while in turn intention to use was influenced by perceived usefulness. This study offers an understanding of people’s adoption of e-government services with the help of established theories such as TAM and various factors that influence the e-government adoption with reference to UAE.

Keywords: e-government portal, e-service, usability, TAM model

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

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Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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Authors: C. Fortin, D. Tokmeninova, O. Ushakova

Abstract:

Among 500 Russian universities Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech) is one of the youngest (established in 2011), quite small and vastly international, comprising 20 percent of international students and 70 percent of faculty with significant academic experience at top-100 universities (QS, THE). The institute has emerged from close collaboration with MIT and leading Russian universities. Skoltech is an entirely English speaking environment. Skoltech curriculum plans of ten Master programs are based on the CDIO learning outcomes model. However, despite the Institute’s unique focus on industrial innovations and startups, one of the main challenges has become an evident large proportion of nearly half of MSc graduates entering PhD programs at Skoltech or other universities rather than industry or entrepreneurship. In order to increase the share of students joining the industrial sector after graduation, Skoltech started implementing a number of unique practices with a focus on employers’ expectations incorporated into the curriculum redesign. In this sense, extended knowledge exchange with industrial partners via collaboration in learning activities, industrial projects and assessments became essential for students’ headway into industrial and entrepreneurship pathways. Current academic curriculum includes the following types of components based on extended knowledge exchange with industrial partners: innovation workshop, industrial immersion, special industrial tracks, MSc defenses. Innovation workshop is a 4 week full time diving into the Skoltech vibrant ecosystem designed to foster innovators, focuses on teamwork, group projects, and sparks entrepreneurial instincts from the very first days of study. From 2019 the number of mentors from industry and startups significantly increased to guide students across these sectors’ demands. Industrial immersion is an exclusive part of Skoltech curriculum where students after the first year of study spend 8 weeks in an industrial company carrying out an individual or team project and are guided jointly by both Skoltech and company supervisors. The aim of the industrial immersion is to familiarize students with relevant needs of Russian industry and to prepare graduates for job placement. During the immersion a company plays the role of a challenge provider for students. Skoltech has started a special industrial track comprising deep collaboration with IPG Photonics – a leading R&D company and manufacturer of high-performance fiber lasers and amplifiers for diverse applications. The track is aimed to train a new cohort of engineers and includes a variety of activities for students within the “Photonics” MSc program. It is expected to be a successful story and used as an example for similar initiatives with other Russian high-tech companies. One of the pathways of extended knowledge exchange with industrial partners is an active involvement of potential employers in MSc Defense Committees to review and assess MSc thesis projects and to participate in defense procedures. The paper will evaluate the effect and results of the above undertaken measures.

Keywords: Curriculum redesign, knowledge exchange model, learning outcomes framework, stakeholder engagement

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: S.I.Mukhin, S. Seidov, A. Mukherjee

Abstract:

The Dicke model is a key tool for the description of correlated states of quantum atomic systems, excited by resonant photon absorption and subsequently emitting spontaneous coherent radiation in the superradiant state. The Dicke Hamiltonian (DH) is successfully used for the description of the dynamics of the Josephson Junction (JJ) array in a resonant cavity under applied current. In this work, we have investigated a generalized model, which is described by DH with a frustrating interaction term. This frustrating interaction term is explicitly the infinite coordinated interaction between all the spin half in the system. In this work, we consider an array of N superconducting islands, each divided into two sub-islands by a Josephson Junction, taken in a charged qubit / Cooper Pair Box (CPB) condition. The array is placed inside the resonant cavity. One important aspect of the problem lies in the dynamical nature of the physical observables involved in the system, such as condensed electric field and dipole moment. It is important to understand how these quantities behave with time to define the quantum phase of the system. The Dicke model without frustrating term is solved to find the dynamical solutions of the physical observables in analytic form. We have used Heisenberg’s dynamical equations for the operators and on applying newly developed Rotating Holstein Primakoff (HP) transformation and DH we have arrived at the four coupled nonlinear dynamical differential equations for the momentum and spin component operators. It is possible to solve the system analytically using two-time scales. The analytical solutions are expressed in terms of Jacobi's elliptic functions for the metastable ‘bound luminosity’ dynamic state with the periodic coherent beating of the dipoles that connect the two double degenerate dipolar ordered phases discovered previously. In this work, we have proceeded the analysis with the extended DH with a frustrating interaction term. Inclusion of the frustrating term involves complexity in the system of differential equations and it gets difficult to solve analytically. We have solved semi-classical dynamic equations using the perturbation technique for small values of Josephson energy EJ. Because the Hamiltonian contains parity symmetry, thus phase transition can be found if this symmetry is broken. Introducing spontaneous symmetry breaking term in the DH, we have derived the solutions which show the occurrence of finite condensate, showing quantum phase transition. Our obtained result matches with the existing results in this scientific field.

Keywords: Dicke Model, nonlinear dynamics, perturbation theory, superconductivity

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Authors: Chen Xi, Liu Xuebing, Lao Xueru, Kuan Sinman, Jiang Yike, Wang Hanwei, Yang Xiaolang, Zhou Junjie, Xie Jinpeng

Abstract:

To further promote the development of smart cities, the microscopic "nerve endings" of the City Intelligent Model (CIM) are extended to be more sensitive. In this paper, we develop a pedestrian trajectory twin terminal based on the CIM and CNN technology. It also uses 5G networks, architectural and geoinformatics technologies, convolutional neural networks, combined with deep learning networks for human behavior recognition models, to provide empirical data such as 'pedestrian flow data and human behavioral characteristics data', and ultimately form spatial performance evaluation criteria and spatial performance warning systems, to make the empirical data accurate and intelligent for prediction and decision making.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, CIM, artificial intelligence, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Alpana Tiwari, N. K. Gaur

Abstract:

We have incorporated the translational rotational (TR) coupling effects in the framework of three body force shell model (TSM) to develop an extended TSM (ETSM). The dynamical matrix of ETSM has been applied to compute the phonon frequencies of orientationally disordered mixed crystal (ND4Br)x(KBr)1-x in (q00), (qq0) and (qqq) symmetry directions for compositions 0.10≤x≤0.50 at T=300K.These frequencies are plotted as a function of wave vector k. An unusual acoustic mode softening is found along symmetry directions (q00) and (qq0) as a result of translation-rotation coupling.

Keywords: orientational glass, phonons, TR-coupling, lattice dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 277