Search results for: expectation propagation

Authors: Torben Hansen, Lars Gronholdt, Alexander Josiassen, Anne Martensen

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Consumers often exhibit a bias in their knowledge; they often think that they know more or less than they do. The concept of 'knowledge over/underconfidence' (O/U) has in previous studies been used to investigate such knowledge bias. O/U appears as a combination of subjective and objective knowledge. Subjective knowledge relates to consumers’ perception of their knowledge, while objective knowledge relates to consumers’ absolute knowledge measured by objective standards. This separation leads to three scenarios: The consumer can either be knowledge calibrated (subjective and objective knowledge are similar), overconfident (subjective knowledge exceeds objective knowledge) or underconfident (objective knowledge exceeds subjective knowledge). Knowledge O/U is a highly useful concept in understanding consumer choice behavior. For example, knowledge overconfident individuals are likely to exaggerate their ability to make right choices, are more likely to opt out of necessary information search, spend less time to carry out a specific task than less knowledge confident consumers, and are more likely to show high financial trading volumes. Through the use of financial services as a case study, this study contributes to previous research by examining how consumer knowledge O/U affects two types of trust (broad-scope trust and narrow-scope trust) and consumer relationship satisfaction. Trust does not only concern consumer trust in individual companies (i.e., narrow.-scope confidence NST), but also concerns consumer confidence in the broader business context in which consumers plan and implement their behavior (i.e., broad scope trust, BST). NST is defined as "the expectation that the service provider can be relied on to deliver on its promises’, while BST is defined as ‘the expectation that companies within a particular business type can generally be relied on to deliver on their promises.’ This study expands our understanding of the interplay between consumer knowledge bias, consumer trust, and relationship marketing in two main ways: First, it is demonstrated that the more knowledge O/U a consumer becomes, the higher/lower NST and levels of relationship satisfaction will be. Second, it is demonstrated that BST has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between knowledge O/U and satisfaction, such that knowledge O/U has a higher positive/negative effect on relationship satisfaction when BST is low vs. high. The data for this study comprises 756 mutual fund investors. Trust is particularly important in consumers’ mutual fund behavior because mutual funds have important responsibilities in providing financial advice and in managing consumers’ funds.

Keywords: knowledge, cognitive bias, trust, customer-seller relationships, financial services

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Authors: Kudzanayi Chiteka, Wellington Makondo

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The whole world is on the drive to go green owing to the negative effects of burning fossil fuels. Therefore, there is immediate need to identify and utilise alternative renewable energy sources. Among these energy sources solar energy is one of the most dominant in Zimbabwe. Solar power plants used to generate electricity are entirely dependent on solar radiation. For planning purposes, solar radiation values should be known in advance to make necessary arrangements to minimise the negative effects of the absence of solar radiation due to cloud cover and other naturally occurring phenomena. This research focused on the prediction of Global Horizontal Irradiation values for the sixth day given values for the past five days. Artificial intelligence techniques were used in this research. Three models were developed based on Support Vector Machines, Radial Basis Function, and Feed Forward Back-Propagation Artificial neural network. Results revealed that Support Vector Machines gives the best results compared to the other two with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.05kWh/m²/day root mean square (RMS) error of 0.15kWh/m²/day and a coefficient of determination of 0.990. The other predictive models had prediction accuracies of MAPEs of 4.5% and 6% respectively for Radial Basis Function and Feed Forward Back-propagation Artificial neural network. These two models also had coefficients of determination of 0.975 and 0.970 respectively. It was found that prediction of GHI values for the future days is possible using artificial intelligence-based predictive models.

Keywords: solar energy, global horizontal irradiation, artificial intelligence, predictive models

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Authors: Chetra Mang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Xavier Lorang

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Lattice structures are widely used in various applications, especially in aeronautic, aerospace, and medical applications because of their high performance properties. Thanks to advancement of the additive manufacturing technology, the lattice structures can be manufactured by different methods such as laser beam melting technology. However, the presence of geometric defects in the lattice structures is inevitable due to the manufacturing process. The geometric defects may have high impact on the mechanical strength of the structures. This work analyzes the correlation between the manufacturing parameters and the mechanical strengths of the lattice structures. To do that, two types of the lattice structures; body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) structures made of Inconel718, and body-centered cubic (BCC) structures made of Scalmalloy, are manufactured by laser melting beam machine using Taguchi design of experiment. Each structure is placed on the substrate with a specific position and orientation regarding the roller direction of deposed metal powder. The position and orientation are considered as the manufacturing parameters. The geometric defects of each beam in the lattice are characterized and used to build the geometric model in order to perform simulations. Then, the mechanical strengths are defined by the homogeneous response as Young's modulus and yield strength. The distribution of mechanical strengths is observed as a function of manufacturing parameters. The mechanical response of the BCCZ structure is stretch-dominated, i.e., the mechanical strengths are directly dependent on the strengths of the vertical beams. As the geometric defects of vertical beams are slightly changed based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate, the mechanical strengths are less dispersed. The manufacturing parameters are less influenced on the mechanical strengths of the structure BCCZ. The mechanical response of the BCC structure is bending-dominated. The geometric defects of inclined beam are highly dispersed within a structure and also based on their position/orientation on the manufacturing substrate. For different position/orientation on the substrate, the mechanical responses are highly dispersed as well. This shows that the mechanical strengths are directly impacted by manufacturing parameters. In addition, this work is carried out to study the uncertainty propagation of the geometric defects on the mechanical strength of the BCC lattice structure made of Scalmalloy. To do that, we observe the distribution of mechanical strengths of the lattice according to the distribution of the geometric defects. A probability density law is determined based on a statistical hypothesis corresponding to the geometric defects of the inclined beams. The samples of inclined beams are then randomly drawn from the density law to build the lattice structure samples. The lattice samples are then used for simulation to characterize the mechanical strengths. The results reveal that the distribution of mechanical strengths of the structures with the same manufacturing parameters is less dispersed than one of the structures with different manufacturing parameters. Nevertheless, the dispersion of mechanical strengths due to the structures with the same manufacturing parameters are unneglectable.

Keywords: geometric defects, lattice structure, mechanical strength, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Meng-Chyi Wu, Bonn Lin, Jyun-Hao Liao, Chein-Ju Chen, Yu-Cheng Jhuang, Mau-Phon Houng, Fang-Hsing Wang, Min-Chu Liu, Cheng-Fu Yang, Cheng-Shong Hong

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Since the use of wireless communications has become critical nowadays, the available RF spectrum has become limited. Ultraviolet (UV) communication system can alleviate the spectrum constraint making UV communication system a potential alternative to future communication demands. Also, UV links can provide faster communication rate and can be used in combination with existing RF communication links, providing new communications diversity with higher user capacity. The UV region of electromagnetic spectrum has been of interest to detector, imaging and communication technologies because the stratospheric ozone layer effectively absorbs some solar UV radiation from reaching the earth surface. The wavebands where most of UV radiation is absorbed by the ozone are commonly known as the solar blind region. By operating in UV-C band (200-280 nm) the communication system can minimize the transmission power consumption since it will have less radiation noise. UV communication uses the UV ray as the medium. Electric signal is carried on this band after being modulated and then be transmitted within the atmosphere as channel. Though the background noise of UV-C communication is very low owing to the solar-blind feature, it leads to a large propagation loss. The 370 nm UV provides a much lower propagation loss than that the UV-C does and the recent device technology for UV source on this band is more mature. The fabricated 370 nm AlGaN light-emitting diodes (LEDs) with an aperture size of 45 m exhibit a modulation bandwidth of 165 MHz at 30 mA and a high power of 7 W/cm2 at 230 A/cm2. In order to solve the problem of low power in single UV LED, a UV LED array is presented in.

Keywords: ultraviolet (UV) communication, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), modulation bandwidth, LED array, 370 nm

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Authors: Anny Zambrano, German Gonzalez, Yair Quintero

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The continuum damage concept is used to study the interaction between hydraulic fractures and natural fractures, the objective is representing the path and relation among this two fractures types and predict its complex behavior without the need to pre-define their direction as occurs in other finite element applications, providing results more consistent with the physical behavior of the phenomenon. The approach uses finite element simulations through Abaqus software to model damage fracturing, the fracturing process by damage propagation in a rock. The modeling the phenomenon develops in two dimensional (2D) so that the fracture will be represented by a line and the crack front by a point. It considers nonlinear constitutive behavior, finite strain, time-dependent deformation, complex boundary conditions, strain hardening and softening, and strain based damage evolution in compression and tension. The complete governing equations are provided and the method is described in detail to permit readers to replicate all results. The model is compared to models that are published and available. Comparisons are focused in five interactions between natural fractures (NF) and hydraulic fractures: Fractured arrested at NF, crossing NF with or without offset, branching at intersecting NFs, branching at end of NF and NF dilation due to shear slippage. The most significant new finding is, that is not necessary to use pre-defined addresses propagation and stress condition can be evaluated as a dominant factor in the process. This is important because it can model in a more real way the generated complex hydraulic fractures, and be a valuable tool to predict potential problems and different geometries of the fracture network in the process of fracturing due to fluid injection.

Keywords: continuum damage, hydraulic fractures, natural fractures, complex fracture network, stiffness

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Authors: M. Ashaque Meah, Md. Fazlul Karim, M. Shah Noor, Nazmun Nahar Papri, M. Khalid Hossen, M. Ismoen

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Tsunami and inundation modelling due to far field tsunami propagation in a limited area is a very challenging numerical task because it involves many aspects such as the formation of various types of waves and the irregularities of coastal boundaries. To compute the effect of far field tsunami and extent of inland inundation due to far field tsunami along the coastal belts of west coast of Malaysia and Southern Thailand, a formulated boundary condition and a moving boundary condition are simultaneously used. In this study, a boundary fitted curvilinear grid system is used in order to incorporate the coastal and island boundaries accurately as the boundaries of the model domain are curvilinear in nature and the bending is high. The tsunami response of the event 26 December 2004 along the west open boundary of the model domain is computed to simulate the effect of far field tsunami. Based on the data of the tsunami source at the west open boundary of the model domain, a boundary condition is formulated and applied to simulate the tsunami response along the coastal and island boundaries. During the simulation process, a moving boundary condition is initiated instead of fixed vertical seaside wall. The extent of inland inundation and tsunami propagation pattern are computed. Some comparisons are carried out to test the validation of the simultaneous use of the two boundary conditions. All simulations show excellent agreement with the data of observation.

Keywords: open boundary condition, moving boundary condition, boundary-fitted curvilinear grids, far-field tsunami, shallow water equations, tsunami source, Indonesian tsunami of 2004

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Authors: Feng Huang, Carlos G. Ochoa, Haitao Zhao

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Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, is located at the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. It has great value in socioeconomic development and is internationally recognized as an important lacustrine and wetland ecosystem with abundant biodiversity. Impacted by ongoing climate change and anthropogenic activities, especially the regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir since 2003, Poyang Lake has experienced significant water regime evolution, resulting in challenges for the management of water resources and the environment. Quantifying the contribution of hydrologic and topographic changes to water regime alteration is necessary for policymakers to design effective adaption strategies. Long term hydrologic data were collected and the back-propagation neural networks were constructed to simulate the lake water level. The impacts of hydrologic and topographic changes were differentiated through scenario analysis that considered pre-impact and post-impact hydrologic and topographic scenarios. The lake water regime was characterized by hydrologic indicators that describe monthly water level fluctuations, hydrologic features during flood and drought seasons, and frequency and rate of hydrologic variations. The results revealed different contributions of hydrologic and topographic changes to different features of the lake water regime.Noticeable changes were that the water level declined dramatically during the period of reservoir impoundment, and the drought was enhanced during the dry season. The hydrologic and topographic changes exerted a synergistic effect or antagonistic effect on different lake water regime features. The findings provide scientific reference for lacustrine and wetland ecological protection associated with water regime alterations.

Keywords: back-propagation neural network, scenario analysis, water regime, Poyang Lake

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Authors: Guram Adamashvili

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Surface plasmon polariton is a surface optical wave which undergoes a strong enhancement and spatial confinement of its wave amplitude near an interface of two-dimensional layered structures. Phosphorene (single-layer black phosphorus) and other two-dimensional anisotropic phosphorene-like materials are recognized as promising materials for potential future applications of surface plasmon polariton. A theory of an optical breather of self-induced transparency for surface plasmon polariton propagating in monolayer or few-layer phosphorene is developed. A theory of an optical soliton of self-induced transparency for surface plasmon polariton propagating in monolayer or few-layer phosphorene have been investigated earlier Starting from the optical nonlinear wave equation for surface TM-modes interacting with a two-dimensional layer of atomic systems or semiconductor quantum dots and a phosphorene monolayer (or other two-dimensional anisotropic material), we have obtained the evolution equations for the electric field of the breather. In this case, one finds that the evolution of these pulses become described by the damped Bloch-Maxwell equations. For surface plasmon polariton fields, breathers are found to occur. Explicit relations of the dependence of breathers on the local media, phosphorene anisotropic conductivity, transition layer properties and transverse structures of the SPP, are obtained and will be given. It is shown that the phosphorene conductivity reduces exponentially the amplitude of the surface breather of SIT in the process of propagation. The direction of propagation corresponding to the maximum and minimum damping of the amplitude are assigned along the armchair and zigzag directions of black phosphorus nano-film, respectively. The most rapid damping of the intensity occurs when the polarization of breather is along the armchair direction.

Keywords: breathers, nonlinear waves, solitons, surface plasmon polaritons

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Authors: Juan Huang, Hugo Ninanya

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Oil has been used as a source of energy and supply to make materials, such as asphalt or rubber for many years. This is the reason why new technologies have been implemented through time. However, research still needs to continue increasing due to new challenges engineers face every day, just like unconventional reservoirs. Various numerical methodologies have been applied in petroleum engineering as tools in order to optimize the production of reservoirs before drilling a wellbore, although not all of these have the same efficiency when talking about studying fracture propagation. Analytical methods like those based on linear elastic fractures mechanics fail to give a reasonable prediction when simulating fracture propagation in ductile materials whereas numerical methods based on the cohesive zone method (CZM) allow to represent the elastoplastic behavior in a reservoir based on a constitutive model; therefore, predictions in terms of displacements and pressure will be more reliable. In this work, a hydro-geomechanical coupled model of horizontal wells in fractured rock was developed using ABAQUS; both extended element method and cohesive elements were used to represent predefined fractures in a model (2-D). A power law for representing the rheological behavior of fluid (shear-thinning, power index <1) through fractures and leak-off rate permeating to the matrix was considered. Results have been showed in terms of aperture and length of the fracture, pressure within fracture and fluid loss. It was showed a high infiltration rate to the matrix as power index decreases. A sensitivity analysis is conclusively performed to identify the most influential factor of fluid loss.

Keywords: fracture, hydro-geomechanical model, non-Newtonian fluid, numerical analysis, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Rose C.Anamezie, Mishack T. Gumbo

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Physics learners’ poor retention, which culminates in poor achievement due to teaching approaches that are unrelated to learners’ in non-Western cultures, warranted the study. The tenet of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the ethnoscience-based teaching (EBT) approach on learners’ retention in the Physics concept of Optics in the Awka Education zone of Anambra State- Nigeria. Two research questions and three null hypotheses tested at a 0.05 level of significance guided the study. The design adopted for the study was Quasi-experimental. Specifically, a non-equivalent control group design was adopted. The population for the study was 4,825 SS2 Physics learners in the zone. 160 SS2 learners were sampled using purposive and random sampling. The experimental group was taught rectilinear propagation of light (RPL) using the EBT approach, while the control group was taught the same topic using the lecture method. The instrument for data collection was the 50 Physics Retention Test (PRT) which was validated by three experts and tested for reliability using Kuder-Richardson’s formula-20, which yielded coefficients of 0.81. The data were analysed using mean, standard deviation and analysis of co-variance (p< .05). The results showed higher retention for the use of the EBT approach than the lecture method, while there was no significant gender-based factor in the learners’ retention in Physics. It was recommended that the EBT approach, which bridged the gender gap in Physics retention, be adopted in secondary school teaching and learning since it could transform science teaching, enhance learners’ construction of new science concepts based on their existing knowledge and bridge the gap between Western science and learners’ worldviews.

Keywords: Ethnoscience-based teaching, optics, rectilinear propagation of light, retention

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Authors: Rashmi Ranade, Neelu Joshi

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Barleria prionitis L. is a well explored Indian medicinal plant valued for its stem and leaf which forms an important ingredient of many Ayurvedic formulations. It is used for the treatment of various disorders like toothache, bleeding gums, strengthening gums, whooping cough, inflammation, arthritis, enlargement of scrotum and sciatica etc. The plant is propagated vegetatively through stem cuttings. Frequent harvesting of this plant has led to the shortage of planting material, and it has acquired the status of vulnerable plant species. Plant tissue culture technology offers a very good alternative for propagation and conservation of such plant species. The present investigation was undertaken to develop in vitro regeneration protocol for B. prionitis L. via callus organogenesis pathway. Stem and leaf explants were used for this purpose. Different media and plant growth regulators were optimized to develop the protocol. The problem of phenol secretion and browning and in vitro cultures at the establishment phase was successfully curbed with the usage of antibrowning agents such as ascorbic acid and activated charcoal. Optimum shoot multiplication was achieved by the use of liquid media and incorporation of silver nitrate and TIBA (triiodobenzoic acid) into the media. High percent rooting (76%) was observed on WPM media supplemented with IBA (2.0 mg/l), IAA (0.5 mg/l), GA3(0.5) and activated charcoal(500 mg/l). The rooted plantlets were subjected to in vitro hardening on sterile potting mix (soil:farmyard manure:compost; 1:2:1) and acclimatized under greenhouse conditions. Around 85% survival of plantlets was recorded upon acclimatization. This lab scale protocol would be tested for in vitro scaling up production of B. prionitis L.

Keywords: explant browning, liquid culture, micropropagation, shoot multiplication, phenolic secretion

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Authors: Ojo F. M., Nwekeocha C. C., Faluyi J. O.

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Morphological studies were carried out on Andropogongayanus-Andropogontectorum complex collected in Southwestern Nigeria to provide full characterizationof the two species of Andropogon; elucidating their population dynamics. Morphological data from selected accessions of A. gayanus and A. tectorum from different parts of Southwestern Nigeria were collected and characterized using an adaptation of the Descriptors for Wild and Cultivated Rice (Oryza spp). Preliminary morphological descriptions were carried out at the points of collection. Garden populations were raised from the vegetative parts of some accessions, and hybrids were maintained in Botanical Garden of the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile- Ife. The data obtained were subjected to inferential tests and Duncan’s multiple range test. This study has revealed distribution pattern of the two species in the area of study, which suggests a south-ward migration of Andropogongayanus from the northern vegetational zones of Nigeria to the southern ecological zones. The migration of A. gayanus around Igbeti with occasional occurrence of A. tectorum along the roadsides without any distinct phenotypic hybrid and Budo-Ode in Oyo State has been established as the southern limit of the spread of A. gayanus, the migration of A. gayanus to the South is not an invasion but a slow process. A. gayanus was not encountered in Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, and Ogun States. Andropogongayanus and Andropogon tectorum not only emerge from the rootstocks rapidly but can also produce independent propagules by rooting at some nodes. The plants can spread by means of these propagules even if it does not produce sexual or apomictic seeds. This potential for vegetative propagation, in addition to the perennial habit, confer considerable advantage for colonization by the Andropogongayanus-AndropogontectorumComplex.

Keywords: accessions, distribution, migration, propagation

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Authors: Yi-Cheng Tian, Miin-Shen Yang

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The mixture likelihood approach to clustering is a popular clustering method where the expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is the most used mixture likelihood method. In the literature, the EM algorithm had been used for mixture regression models. However, these EM mixture regression algorithms are sensitive to initial values with a priori number of clusters. In this paper, to resolve these drawbacks, we construct a learning-based schema for the EM mixture regression algorithm such that it is free of initializations and can automatically obtain an approximately optimal number of clusters. Some numerical examples and comparisons demonstrate the superiority and usefulness of the proposed learning-based EM mixture regression algorithm.

Keywords: clustering, EM algorithm, Gaussian mixture model, mixture regression model

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Nurhayati Br Tarigan, Rizkita Rachmi Esyanti

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Stevia (Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni) has a great potential to be used as a natural sweetener because it contains steviol glycoside, which is approximately 100 - 300 times sweeter than sucrose, yet low calories. Vegetative and generative propagation of S. rebaudiana is inefficient to produce stevia biomass and stevioside. One of alternative for stevia propagation is in vitro shoot culture. This research was conducted to optimize the best medium for shoot growth and to compare the bioconversion efficiency and stevioside production of S. rebaudiana shoot culture cultivated in thin layer culture (TLC), recipient for automated temporary immersion system (TIS RITA®) bioreactor, and bubble column bioreactor. The result showed that 1 ppm of Kinetin produced a healthy shoot and the highest number of leaves compared to BAP. Shoots were then cultivated in TLC, TIS RITA® bioreactor, and bubble column bioreactor. Growth medium efficiency was determined by yield and productivity. TLC produced the highest growth medium efficiency of S. rebaudiana, the yield was 0.471 ± 0.117 gbiomass.gsubstrate-1, and the productivity was 0.599 ± 0.122 gbiomass.Lmedium-1.day-1. While TIS RITA® bioreactor produced the lowest yield and productivity, 0.182 ± 0.024 gbiomass.gsubstrate-1 and 0.041 ± 0.0002 gbiomass.Lmedium-1.day-1 respectively. The yield of bubble column bioreactor was 0.354 ± 0.204 gbiomass.gsubstrate-1 and the productivity was 0,099 ± 0,009 gbiomass.Lmedium-1.day-1. The stevioside content from the highest to the lowest was obtained from stevia shoot which was cultivated on TLC, TIS RITA® bioreactor, and bubble column bioreactor; the content was 93,44 μg/g, 42,57 μg/g, and 23,03 μg/g respectively. All three systems could be used to produce stevia shoot biomass, but optimization on the number of nutrition and oxygen intake was required in each system.

Keywords: bubble column, growth medium efficiency, Stevia rebaudiana, stevioside, TIS RITA®, TLC

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Authors: Francisco Velez, Juan David Gomez

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Dispersion effects on the Scattering for a semicircular canyon in a micropolar continuum are analyzed, by using a computational finite element scheme. The presence of microrotational waves and the dispersive SV waves affects the propagation of elastic waves. Here, a contrast with the classic model is presented, and the dependence with the micropolar parameters is studied.

Keywords: scattering, semicircular canyon, wave dispersion, micropolar medium, FEM modeling

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Authors: Marinka K. Baghdasaryan, Siranush M. Muradyan, Avgen A. Gasparyan

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Based on the experimental data, the impact of resistance and reactance of the winding, as well as the magnetic permeability of the magnetic circuit steel material on the value of the electromotive force of the induction converter is investigated. The obtained results allow to estimate the main technological spreads and determine the maximum level of the electromotive force change. By the method of experiment planning, the expression of a polynomial for the electromotive force which can be used to estimate the adequacy of mathematical models to be used at the investigation and design of induction converters is obtained.

Keywords: induction converter, electromotive force, expectation, technological spread, deviation, planning an experiment, polynomial, confidence level

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Authors: Xavier Lorang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Sylvain Girard

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The additive manufacturing processes (e.g. selective laser melting) allow us to produce lattice structures which have less weight, higher impact absorption capacity, and better thermal exchange property compared to the classical structures. Unfortunately, geometric imperfections (defects) in the lattice structures are by-products results of the manufacturing process. These imperfections decrease the lifetime and the strength of the lattice structures and alternate their mechanical responses. The objective of the paper is to present a simulation strategy which allows us to take into account the effect of the geometric imperfections on the mechanical response of the lattice structure. In the first part, an identification method of geometric imperfection parameters of the lattice structure based on point clouds is presented. These point clouds are based on tomography measurements. The point clouds are fed into the platform LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX to characterize the geometric imperfections. This is done by projecting the point clouds of each microbeam along the beam axis onto a 2D surface. Then, by fitting an ellipse to the 2D projections of the points, the geometric imperfections are characterized by introducing three parameters of an ellipse; semi-major/minor axes and angle of rotation. With regard to the calculated parameters of the microbeam geometric imperfections, a statistical analysis is carried out to determine a probability density law based on a statistical hypothesis. The microbeam samples are randomly drawn from the density law and are used to generate lattice structures. In the second part, a finite element model for the lattice structure with the simplified geometric imperfections (ellipse parameters) is presented. This numerical model is used to simulate the generated lattice structures. The propagation of the uncertainties of geometric imperfections is shown through the distribution of the computed mechanical responses of the lattice structures.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, finite element model, geometric imperfections, lattice structures, propagation of uncertainty

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Authors: Redvan Ghasemlounia, Elham Ansari, Hikmet Kerem Cigizoglu

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Hydrological modeling in arid and semi-arid regions is very important. Iran has many regions with these climate conditions such as Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that needs lots of attention with an appropriate management. Forecasting of hydrological parameters and estimation of hydrological events of catchments, provide important information that used for design, management and operation of water resources such as river systems, and dams, widely. Discharge in rivers is one of these parameters. This study presents the application and comparison of some estimation methods such as Feed-Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) to predict the daily flow discharge of the Soolegan River, located at Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, in Iran. In this study, Soolegan, station was considered. This Station is located in Soolegan River at 51° 14՜ Latitude 31° 38՜ longitude at North Karoon basin. The Soolegan station is 2086 meters higher than sea level. The data used in this study are daily discharge and daily precipitation of Soolegan station. Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network(FFBPNN), Multi Linear Regression (MLR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Bayesian Network (BN) models were developed using the same input parameters for Soolegan's daily discharge estimation. The results of estimation models were compared with observed discharge values to evaluate performance of the developed models. Results of all methods were compared and shown in tables and charts.

Keywords: ANN, multi linear regression, Bayesian network, forecasting, discharge, gene expression programming

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Authors: Andres Bautista, Alicia Porras, Juan P. Casas, Maribel Silva

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The Colombian aeronautical industry has stimulated research in the mechanical behavior of materials under different loading conditions aircrafts are generally exposed during its operation. The Calima T-90 is the first military aircraft built in the country, used for primary flight training of Colombian Air Force Pilots, therefore, it may be exposed to adverse operating situations such as hard landings which cause impact loads on the aircraft that might produce the impact fatigue phenomenon. The Calima T-90 structure is mainly manufactured by composites materials generating assemblies and subassemblies of different components of it. The main method of bonding these components is by using adhesive joints. Each type of adhesive bond must be studied on its own since its performance depends on the conditions of the manufacturing process and operating characteristics. This study aims to characterize the typical adhesive joints of the aircraft under usual loads. To this purpose, the evaluation of the effect of adhesive thickness on the mechanical performance of the joint under quasi-static loading conditions, constant amplitude fatigue and cyclic impact fatigue using single lap-joint specimens will be performed. Additionally, using a double cantilever beam specimen, the influence of the thickness of the adhesive on the crack growth rate for mode I delamination failure, as a function of the critical energy release rate will be determined. Finally, an analysis of the fracture surface of the test specimens considering the mechanical interaction between the substrate (composite) and the adhesive, provide insights into the magnitude of the damage, the type of failure mechanism that occurs and its correlation with the way crack propagates under the proposed loading conditions.

Keywords: adhesive, composites, crack propagation, fatigue

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Authors: Baya Takhedmit, Karim Abbas, Sofiane Ouazine

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The vacations queues are often employed to model many real situations such as computer systems, communication networks, manufacturing and production systems, transportation systems and so forth. These queueing models are solved at fixed parameters values. However, the parameter values themselves are determined from a finite number of observations and hence have uncertainty associated with them (epistemic uncertainty). In this paper, we consider the M/G/1/N queue with server vacation and exhaustive discipline where we assume that the vacation parameter values have uncertainty. We use the Taylor series expansions approach to estimate the expectation and variance of model output, due to epistemic uncertainties in the model input parameters.

Keywords: epistemic uncertainty, M/G/1/N queue with vacations, non-parametric sensitivity analysis, Taylor series expansion

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Authors: Worawanna Panyakotkaew, Falan Srisuriyachai

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Cyclic steam injection (CSI) is a thermal recovery technique performed by injecting periodically heated steam into heavy oil reservoir. Oil viscosity is substantially reduced by means of heat transferred from steam. Together with gas pressurization, oil recovery is greatly improved. Nevertheless, prediction of effectiveness of the process is difficult when reservoir contains degree of heterogeneity. Therefore, study of heterogeneity together with interest reservoir properties must be evaluated prior to field implementation. In this study, thermal reservoir simulation program is utilized. Reservoir model is firstly constructed as multi-layered with coarsening upward sequence. The highest permeability is located on top layer with descending of permeability values in lower layers. Steam is injected from two wells located diagonally in quarter five-spot pattern. Heavy oil is produced by adjusting operating parameters including soaking period and steam quality. After selecting the best conditions for both parameters yielding the highest oil recovery, effects of degree of heterogeneity (represented by Lorenz coefficient), vertical permeability and permeability sequence are evaluated. Surprisingly, simulation results show that reservoir heterogeneity yields benefits on CSI technique. Increasing of reservoir heterogeneity impoverishes permeability distribution. High permeability contrast results in steam intruding in upper layers. Once temperature is cool down during back flow period, condense water percolates downward, resulting in high oil saturation on top layers. Gas saturation appears on top after while, causing better propagation of steam in the following cycle due to high compressibility of gas. Large steam chamber therefore covers most of the area in upper zone. Oil recovery reaches approximately 60% which is of about 20% higher than case of heterogeneous reservoir. Vertical permeability exhibits benefits on CSI. Expansion of steam chamber occurs within shorter time from upper to lower zone. For fining upward permeability sequence where permeability values are reversed from the previous case, steam does not override to top layers due to low permeability. Propagation of steam chamber occurs in middle of reservoir where permeability is high enough. Rate of oil recovery is slower compared to coarsening upward case due to lower permeability at the location where propagation of steam chamber occurs. Even CSI technique produces oil quite slowly in early cycles, once steam chamber is formed deep in the reservoir, heat is delivered to formation quickly in latter cycles. Since reservoir heterogeneity is unavoidable, a thorough understanding of its effect must be considered. This study shows that CSI technique might be one of the compatible solutions for highly heterogeneous reservoir. This competitive technique also shows benefit in terms of heat consumption as steam is injected periodically.

Keywords: cyclic steam injection, heterogeneity, reservoir simulation, thermal recovery

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Authors: M. S. Haruna, A. R. Agava, N. J. Sani, A. S. Kovo

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The recent effort for cheaper raw material for the production of Zeolite A that is economically beneficial necessitated the reason for this work. The studies explore the use of locally fabricated crystallizer for the production of zeolite A using Nigeria Ahoko Kaolin as the main raw material. To achieve this intention, a systematic chemical engineering approach for the design of processes was adopted. Firstly a unique simplified flowsheet was developed, and then material and energy balance was conducted and finally followed by a detail design of the crystallizer. The summary of the result of the design showed that the optimum design parameters of 0.45 m and 1.125 were obtained for the diameter and height, respectively. The fabricated crystallizer was successfully tested for the production of Zeolite A, which is the expectation of this work.

Keywords: Zeolite A, design, crystallizer, Ahoko, Kaolin

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze, B. Matsaberidze

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A fuzzy vehicle routing problem is considered in the possibilistic environment. A new criterion, maximization of expectation of reliability for movement on closed routes is constructed. The objective of the research is to implement a two-stage scheme for solution of this problem. Based on the algorithm of preferences on the first stage, the sample of so-called “promising” routes will be selected. On the second stage, for the selected promising routes new bi-criteria problem will be solved - minimization of total traveled distance and maximization of reliability of routes. The problem will be stated as a fuzzy-partitioning problem. Two possible solutions of this scheme are considered.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, fuzzy partitioning problem, multiple-criteria optimization, possibility theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: L. Gyansah, Yanfang Shen, Jiqiang Wang, Tianying Xiong

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SiCₚ/ pure Al composites with different SiC fractions (20 wt %, 30 wt %, and 40 wt %) were precisely cold sprayed, followed by hot axial-compression tests at deformation temperatures of 473 K to 673 K, leading to failure of specimens through routine crack propagation in their multiphase. The plastic deformation behaviour with respect to the SiCₚ contents and the deformation temperatures were studied at strain rate 1s-1.As-sprayed and post-failure specimens were analyzed by X-ray computed tomography (XCT), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Quasi-static thermomechanical testing results revealed that compressive strength (UTS = 228 MPa and 30.4 %) was the highest in the composites that was thermomechanically compressed at 473 K compared to those of the as-sprayed, while the as-sprayed exhibited a compressive strength of 182.8 MPa related to the increment in SiC fraction. Strength—plasticity synergy was promoted by dynamic recrystallization (DRX) through strengthening and refinement of the grains. The DRX degree depends relevantly on retainment of the uniformly ultrafine SiCₚ particulates, the pinning effects of the interfaces promoted by the ultrafine grain structures (UFG), and the higher deformation temperature. Reconstructed X-ray computed tomography data revealed different crack propagation mechanisms. A single-plane shear crack with multi-laminates fracture morphology yields relatively through the as-sprayed and as-deformed at 473 K deposits, while a multiphase plane shear cracks preeminently existed in high temperature deformed deposits resulting in multiphase-interface delaminations. Three pertinent strengthening mechanisms, videlicet, SiCp dispersed strengthening, refined grain strengthening, and dislocation strengthening, existed in the gradient microstructure, and their detailed contributions to the thermomechanical properties were discussed.

Keywords: cold spraying, hot deformation, deformation temperature, thermomechancal properties, SiC/Al composite

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Authors: Valbona Sota, Efigjeni Kongjika

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Wild almond is a woody species, which is difficult to propagate either generatively by seed or by vegetative methods (grafting or cuttings) and also considered as Endangered (EN) in Albania based on IUCN criteria. As a wild relative of cultivated fruit trees, this species represents a source of genetic variability and can be very important in breeding programs and cultivation. For this reason, it would be of interest to use an effective method of in vitro mid-term conservation, which involves strategies to slow plant growth through physicochemical alterations of in vitro growth conditions. Multiplication of wild almond was carried out using zygotic embryos, as primary explants, with the purpose to develop a successful propagation protocol. Results showed that zygotic embryos can proliferate through direct or indirect organogenesis. During subculture, stage was obtained a great number of new plantlets identical to mother plants derived from the zygotic embryos. All in vitro plantlets obtained from subcultures underwent in vitro conservation by minimal growth in low temperature (4ºC) and darkness. The efficiency of this technique was evaluated for 3, 6, and 10 months of conservation period. Maintenance in these conditions reduced micro cuttings growth. Survival and regeneration rates for each period were evaluated and resulted that the maximal time of conservation without subculture on 4ºC was 10 months, but survival and regeneration rates were significantly reduced, specifically 15.6% and 7.6%. An optimal period of conservation in these conditions can be considered the 5-6 months storage, which can lead to 60-50% of survival and regeneration rates. This protocol may be beneficial for mass propagation, mid-term conservation, and for genetic manipulation of wild almond.

Keywords: micropropagation, minimal growth, storage, wild almond

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: N. S. Ajisha

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In today’s competitive world the quality of the service you deliver is one of the important factor that determine customer satisfaction. Service quality is considered to be one important determinant to evaluate customer satisfaction and the relationship between service quality and customer satisfaction is considered as the foundation in researches on customer satisfaction. This research examines to do a gap analysis between the perception and expectation of the services delivered and find relation between the service quality and customer satisfaction. Service quality is found out here using the SERVQUAL model. And it finds out the dimension of service quality which is more important to measure customer satisfaction. The dimensions which we measure using SERVQUAL include the tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy. This study involves primary data collection like market survey.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, service quality, retail service quality, Kochi

Procedia PDF Downloads 513

Authors: A. B. M. Rezaul Islam, Ernur Karadogan

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Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are known for their shape memory effect and pseudoelasticity behavior. Their thermomechanical behaviors are modeled by numerous researchers using microscopic thermodynamic and macroscopic phenomenological point of view. Tanaka, Liang-Rogers and Ivshin-Pence models are some of the most popular SMA macroscopic phenomenological constitutive models. They describe SMA behavior in terms of stress, strain and temperature. These models involve material parameters and they have associated uncertainty present in them. At different operating temperatures, the uncertainty propagates to the output when the material is subjected to loading followed by unloading. The propagation of uncertainty while utilizing these models in real-life application can result in performance discrepancies or failure at extreme conditions. To resolve this, we used probabilistic approach to perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence models. Sobol and extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (eFAST) methods have been used to perform the sensitivity analysis for simulated isothermal loading/unloading at various operating temperatures. As per the results, it is evident that the models vary due to the change in operating temperature and loading condition. The average and stress-dependent sensitivity indices present the most significant parameters at several temperatures. This work highlights the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis results and shows comparison of them at different temperatures and loading conditions for all these models. The analysis presented will aid in designing engineering applications by eliminating the probability of model failure due to the uncertainty in the input parameters. Thus, it is recommended to have a proper understanding of sensitive parameters and the uncertainty propagation at several operating temperatures and loading conditions as per Tanaka, Liang-Rogers, and Ivshin-Pence model.

Keywords: constitutive models, FAST sensitivity analysis, sensitivity analysis, sobol, shape memory alloy, uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Bovornluck Kuosuwan, Kevin Wongleedee

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The purposes of this research was to study the level of satisfaction of international tourists in five important areas: satisfaction on visiting tourist destinations, satisfaction on tourist images, satisfaction on value for money, satisfaction on service quality, and satisfaction when compared with their expectation. A probability random sampling of 200 inbound tourists was utilized. A questionnaire was used to collect the data and small in-depth interviews were also used to get their opinions about their positive and negative evaluations of their experience travelling in Thailand. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents had a medium level of satisfaction. When examined in detail, the level of satisfaction can be ranked from highest to lowest according to the mean average as follows: visiting tourist destinations, expectations, service quality, tourist image, and value for money.

Keywords: inbound tourists, satisfaction, Thailand, international tourists

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Aschalew Cherie Workneh, K. S. Hari Prasad, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha

Abstract:

Due to the increase in water scarcity, the crop water stress index (CWSI) is receiving significant attention these days, especially in arid and semiarid regions, for quantifying water stress and effective irrigation scheduling. Nowadays, machine learning techniques such as neural networks are being widely used to determine CWSI. In the present study, the performance of two artificial neural networks, namely, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and Feed Forward-Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks (FF-BP-ANN), are compared while determining the CWSI of rice crop. Irrigation field experiments with varying degrees of irrigation were conducted at the irrigation field laboratory of the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, during the growing season of the rice crop. The CWSI of rice was computed empirically by measuring key meteorological variables (relative humidity, air temperature, wind speed, and canopy temperature) and crop parameters (crop height and root depth). The empirically computed CWSI was compared with SOM and FF-BP-ANN predicted CWSI. The upper and lower CWSI baselines are computed using multiple regression analysis. The regression analysis showed that the lower CWSI baseline for rice is a function of crop height (h), air vapor pressure deficit (AVPD), and wind speed (u), whereas the upper CWSI baseline is a function of crop height (h) and wind speed (u). The performance of SOM and FF-BP-ANN were compared by computing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), index of agreement (d), root mean squared error (RMSE), and coefficient of correlation (R²). It is found that FF-BP-ANN performs better than SOM while predicting the CWSI of rice crops.

Keywords: artificial neural networks; crop water stress index; canopy temperature, prediction capability

Procedia PDF Downloads 81