Search results for: estimated time of death

Authors: Camilo Andres Agudelo-Velez, Lina María Martinez-Sanchez, Natalia Perilla-Hernandez, Maria De Los Angeles Rodriguez-Gazquez, Felipe Hernandez-Restrepo, Dayana Andrea Quintero-Moreno, Camilo Ruiz-Mejia, Isabel Cristina Ortiz-Trujillo, Monica Maria Zuluaga-Quintero

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Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is common condition, characterized by a persistent blockage of airflow, partially reversible and progressive, that represents 5% of total deaths around the world, and it is expected to become the third leading cause of death by 2030. Objective: To establish the clinical and epidemiological profile of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a medical institution from the city of Medellin, Colombia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed, with a sample of 50 patients with a diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a private institution in Medellin, during 2015. The software SPSS vr. 20 was used for the statistical analysis. For the quantitative variables, averages, standard deviations, and maximun and minimun values were calculated, while for ordinal and nominal qualitative variables, proportions were estimated. Results: The average age was 73.5±9.3 years, 52% of the patients were women, 50% of them had retired, 46% ere married and 80% lived in the city of Medellín. The mean time of diagnosis was 7.8±1.3 years and 100% of the patients were treated at the internal medicine service. The most common clinical features were: 36% were classified as class D for the disease, 34% had a FEV1 <30%, 88% had a history of smoking and 52% had oxygen therapy at home. Conclusion: It was found that class D was the most common, and the majority of the patients had a history of smoking, indicating the need to strengthen promotion and prevention strategies in this regard.

Keywords: pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive, pulmonary medicine, oxygen inhalation therapy

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Authors: S. Rostampour Yasouri, M. Ghane, M. Doudi

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Leptospirosis is one of the most significant infectious and zoonotic diseases along with global spreading. This disease is causative agent of economoic losses and human fatalities in various countries, including Northern provinces of Iran. The aim of this research is to identify and compare the rapid diagnostic techniques of pathogenic leptospiras, considering the multifacetedness of the disease from a clinical manifestation and premature death of patients. In the spring and summer of 2020-2022, 25 fecal samples were collected from suspected leptospirosis patients and 25 Fecal samples from mice residing in the rice fields and factories in Tonekabon city. Samples were prepared by centrifugation and passing through membrane filters. Culture technique was used in liquid and solid EMJH media during one month of incubation at 30°C. Then, the media were examined microscopically. DNA extraction was conducted by extraction Kit. Diagnosis of leptospiras was enforced by PCR and Real time PCR (SYBR Green) techniques using lipL32 specific primer. Out of the patients, 11 samples (44%) and 8 samples (32%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by Real time PCR and PCR technique, respectively. Out of the mice, 9 Samples (36%) and 3 samples (12%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by the mentioned techniques, respectively. Although the culture technique is considered to be the gold standard technique, but due to the slow growth of pathogenic Leptospira and lack of colony formation of some species, it is not a fast technique. Real time PCR allowed rapid diagnosis with much higher accuracy compared to PCR because PCR could not completely identify samples with lower microbial load.

Keywords: culture, pathogenic leptospiras, PCR, real time PCR

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Authors: Christian Bucio Pacheco, Miriam Magnolia Sosa Castro, María Alejandra Cabello Rosales

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This paper aims to analyze the contagion effect among the stock markets of the BRIC+M block (Brazil, Russia, India, China plus Mexico). The contagion effect is proved through increasing on dependence parameters during crisis periods. The dependence parameters are estimated through copula approach in a period of time from July 1997 to December 2015. During this period there are instability and calm episodes, allowing to analyze changes in the relations of dependence. Empirical results show strong evidence of time-varying dependence among the BRIC+M markets and an increasing dependence relation during global financial crisis period.

Keywords: BRIC+M Block, Contagion effect, Copula, dependence

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Authors: Jaehyung Jung, Kiman Kim, Heesang Eum

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Solar cell is one of the main technologies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG). Thereby, accurate estimation of greenhouse gas reduction by solar cell technology is crucial to consider strategic applications of the solar cell. The bottom-up approach using operating data such as operation time and efficiency is one of the methodologies to improve the accuracy of the estimation. In this study, alternative GHG reductions from solar cell technology were estimated by a bottom-up approach to indirect emission source (scope 2) in Korea, 2015. In addition, the scenario-based analysis was conducted to assess the effect of technological change with respect to efficiency improvement and rate of operation. In order to estimate GHG reductions from solar cell activities in operating condition levels, methodologies were derived from 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and guidelines for local government greenhouse inventories published in Korea, 2016. Indirect emission factors for electricity were obtained from Korea Power Exchange (KPX) in 2011. As a result, the annual alternative GHG reductions were estimated as 21,504 tonCO2eq, and the annual average value was 1,536 tonCO2eq per each solar cell technology. Those results of estimation showed to be 91% levels versus design of capacity. Estimation of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs) showed that the largest gas was carbon dioxide (CO2), of which up to 99% of the total individual greenhouse gases. The annual average GHG reductions from solar cell per year and unit installed capacity (MW) were estimated as 556 tonCO2eq/yr•MW. Scenario analysis of efficiency improvement by 5%, 10%, 15% increased as much as approximately 30, 61, 91%, respectively, and rate of operation as 100% increased 4% of the annual GHG reductions.

Keywords: bottom-up approach, greenhouse gas (GHG), reduction, scenario, solar cell

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Authors: Chao Fang

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Due to the Confucian emphasis on filial piety and an undeveloped social welfare system in mainland China, adult children are both socially and legally obliged to care for their parents, including financial assistance and physical care as well as emotional and social support. Thus a family-centred care pattern for elderly people has been firmly established in China. However, because of the nationwide ‘One Child Policy’, over one million parents are excluded from such care because of the death of their only child and, therefore, their primary caregiver. Without their child’s support, these parents must manage the day to day challenges of growing old alone, with little support from society. By overturning established expectations of a ‘good’ elderly life, the loss of an only child may be accompanied by social and self-stigmatization, pushing these bereaved parents to the margin of society and threatening their economic, physical, emotional and social well-being. More importantly, since the One Child Policy was implemented from the late 1970s and early 1980s, the first generation of bereaved or ‘Shidu’ parents has reached an age at which those parents need elderly care. However, their predicament has been largely ignored. This paper reports on a qualitative interview study that found elderly care to be the main concern for Shidu parents’ everyday life. The paper identifies and discusses the concerns these bereaved parents raised about the prospect of having nowhere to turn at a time of increased need for financial, physical, social and emotional support in old age. The paper also identifies how Shidu parents have been coming together in grief and negotiate to make their predicament known to the government and wider society and to re-define their elderly life by rebuilding a sense of ‘family’.

Keywords: culture, bereavement, China, elderly care

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule

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Authors: Rochelyn Dona, Serdar Satar

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the biological parameters of A. fabae Scopoli (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Developmental, survival, and reproductive data were collected for Aphis fabae reared on detached bean leaves (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) ‘pinto beans’ at five temperature regimes (12, 16, 20, 24, and 28 °C), 65% relative humidity (RH), relative and a photoperiod of 16:8 (LD) h. The developmental times of immature stages ranged from 16, 65 days at 12°C to 5.70 days at 24°C, but a slight increase again at 28°C (6.62 days). At 24°C from this study presented the developmental threshold for A. fabae slightly to 24°C. The average longevity of mature females significantly decreased from 42.32 days at 12°C to 16.12 days at 28°C. The reproduction rate per female was 62.27 at 16°C and 12.72 at 28°C. The mean generation period of the population ranged from 29.24 at 12°C to 11.50 at 28°C. The highest intrinsic rate of increase (rm = 0.41) were recorded at 24°C, the lowest at 12°C (rm = 0.15). It was evident that temperatures over 28°C augmented the development time, accelerated the death ratio of the nymphal stages, Shrunk Adult longevity, and reduced fecundity. The optimal range of temperature for the population growth of A. fabae on the bean was 16°C-24°C, according to this study.

Keywords: developmental time, intrinsic rate, reproduction period, temperature dependence

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Authors: Hayriye Anıl, Görkem Kar

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In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations since geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning, and, time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Natural Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was estimated for the first one and two weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting

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Authors: Kanica Goel, Nilam

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Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide and hence a great challenge for every nation. Thus, it becomes utmost essential to prevent and reduce the spread of infectious disease among humans. Mathematical models help to better understand the transmission dynamics and spread of infections. For this purpose, in the present article, we have proposed a nonlinear time-delayed SVIRS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) mathematical model with nonlinear type incidence rate and nonlinear type treatment rate. Analytical study of the model shows that model exhibits two types of equilibrium points, namely, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Further, for the long-term behavior of the model, stability of the model is discussed with the help of basic reproduction number R₀ and we showed that disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one and unstable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is greater than one for the time lag τ≥0. Furthermore, when basic reproduction number R₀ is one, using center manifold theory and Casillo-Chavez and Song theorem, we showed that the model undergoes transcritical bifurcation. Moreover, numerical simulations are being carried out using MATLAB 2012b to illustrate the theoretical results.

Keywords: nonlinear incidence rate, nonlinear treatment rate, stability, time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

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Authors: D. Kumar, S. Kumar, A. G. Memon, R. A. Memon, K. Harijan

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A considerable amount of energy is usually lost due to compression of insulation in Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) duct. In this paper, the economic impact of compression of insulation is estimated. Relevant mathematical models were used to estimate the optimal thickness at the points of compression. Furthermore, the payback period is calculated for the optimal thickness at the critical parts of supply air duct (SAD) and return air duct (RAD) considering natural gas (NG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as fuels for chillier operation. The mathematical model is developed using preliminary data obtained for an HVAC system of a pharmaceutical company. The higher heat gain and cooling loss, due to compression of thermal insulation, is estimated using relevant heat transfer equations. The results reveal that maximum energy savings (ES) in SAD is 34.5 and 40%, while in RAD is 22.9% and 29% for NG and LPG, respectively. Moreover, the minimum payback period (PP) for SAD is 2 and 1.6years, while in RAD is 4.3 and 2.7years for NG and LPG, respectively. The optimum insulation thickness (OIT) corresponding to maximum ES and minimum PP is estimated to be 35 and 42mm for SAD, while 30 and 38mm for RAD in case of NG and LPG, respectively.

Keywords: optimum insulation thickness, life cycle cost analysis, payback period, HVAC system

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Authors: Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, In-Sung Lee, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Gyu Park

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Nonwoven fabric such as an automobile interior material becomes consists of several material layers required for the sound-absorbing function. Because several material layers, many experimental tuning is required to achieve the target of sound absorption. Therefore, a lot of time and money is spent in the development of the car interior materials. In this study, we present the method to predict the sound-absorbing performance of the various layers with physical properties of each material. and we will verify it with the measured value of a prototype. If the sound absorption can be estimated, it can be optimized without a number of tuning tests of the interiors. So, it can reduce the development cost and time during development

Keywords: automotive interior material, sound absorbing, optimization design, nonwoven fabric

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Authors: W. Widhiada, D. N. K. P. Negara, P. A. Suryawan

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The technological advances in the field of health to be very important, especially on the safety of the baby. In this case a lot of premature infants death caused by poorly managed health facilities. Mostly the death of premature baby caused by bacteria since the temperature around the baby is not normal. Related to this, the incubator equipment needs to be important, especially in how to control the temperature in incubator. On/Off controls is used to regulate the temperature distribution in the incubator so that the desired temperature is 36 °C to stay awake and stable. The authors have been observed and analyzed the data to determine the temperature distribution in the incubator using program of MATLAB/Simulink. The output temperature distribution is obtained at 36 °C in 400 seconds using an Arduino AT 2560. This incubator is able to maintain an ambient temperature and maintain the baby's body temperature within normal limits and keep the moisture in the air in accordance with the limit values required in infant incubator.

Keywords: on/off control, distribution temperature, Arduino AT 2560, baby incubator

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Authors: Malika Fekih, Abdenour Bourabaa, Rafika Hariti, Mohamed Saighi

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In Algeria the global solar radiation and its components is not available for all locations due to which there is a requirement of using different models for the estimation of global solar radiation that use climatological parameters of the locations. Empirical constants for these models have been estimated and the results obtained have been tested statistically. The results show encouraging agreement between estimated and measured values.

Keywords: global solar radiation, empirical model, semi arid areas, climatological parameters

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Authors: Jennifer Zelmer

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The debate regarding the morality, and therefore legality, of abortion has many social, political, and medical ramifications worldwide. In a developing country like Bolivia, carrying a pregnancy to delivery is incredibly risky. Given the very high maternal mortality rate in Bolivia, greater consideration has been given to the (de)criminalization of abortion – a contributing cause of maternal death. In the spring of 2017, the Bolivian government proposed to loosen restrictions on women’s access to receiving a safe abortion, which was met with harsh criticism from 'pro-vida' (pro-life) factions. Although the current Bolivian government Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement Toward Socialism) portrays an agenda of decolonization, or to seek a 'traditionally-modern' society, nevertheless, Bolivia still has one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the Americas, because of centuries of colonial and patriarchal order. Applying a feminist critique and using the abortion debate as the central point, this paper argues that the 'traditionally-modern' society Bolivia strives towards is a paradox, and in fact only contributes to the reciprocal process of the death of 'mother tongues' and the unnecessary death of women. This claim is supported by a critical analysis of historical texts about Spanish Colonialism in Bolivia; the linguistic reality of reproductive educational strategies, and the philosophical framework which the Bolivian government and its citizens implement. This analysis is demonstrated in the current state of women’s access to reproductive healthcare in Cochabamba, Bolivia based on recent fieldwork which included audits of clinics and hospitals, interviews, and participant observation. This paper has two major findings: 1) the language used by opponents of abortion in Bolivia is not consistent with the claim of being 'pro-life' but more accurately with being 'pro-potential'; 2) when the topic of reproductive health appears in Cochabamba, Bolivia, it is often found written in the Spanish language, and does not cater to the many indigenous communities that inhabit or visit this city. Finally, this paper considers the crucial role of public health documentation to better inform the abortion debate, as well as the necessity of expanding reproductive health information to more than text-based materials in Cochabamba. This may include more culturally appropriate messages and mediums that cater to the oral tradition of the indigenous communities, who historically and currently have some of the highest fertility rates. If the objective of one who opposes abortion is to save human lives, then preventing the death of women should equally be of paramount importance. But rather, the 'pro-life' movement in Bolivia is willing to risk the lives of to-be mothers, by judicial punishment or death, for the chance of a potential baby. Until abortion is fully legal, safe, and accessible, there will always be the vestiges of colonial and patriarchal order in Bolivia which only perpetuates the needless death of women.

Keywords: abortion, feminist theory, Quechua, reproductive health education

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Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Tzu-Jung Tseng, Pei-Hsuen Han, Tsung-Hsueh Lu

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Background: Ensuring patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) access to hospitals that could perform percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in time is an important concern of healthcare managers. One commonly used the method to assess the coverage of population access to PCI hospital is the use GIS-estimated linear distance (crow's fly distance) between the district centroid and the nearest PCI hospital. If the distance is within a given distance (such as 20 km), the entire population of that district is considered to have appropriate access to PCI. The premise of using district centroid to estimate the coverage of population resident in that district is that the people live in the district are evenly distributed. In reality, the population density is not evenly distributed within the administrative district, especially in rural districts. Fortunately, the Taiwan government released basic statistical area (on average 450 population within the area) recently, which provide us an opportunity to estimate the coverage of population access to PCI services more accurate. Objectives: We aimed in this study to compare the population covered by a give PCI hospital according to traditional administrative district versus basic statistical area. We further examined if the differences between two geographic units used would be larger in a rural area than in urban area. Method: We selected two hospitals in Tainan City for this analysis. Hospital A is in urban area, hospital B is in rural area. The population in each traditional administrative district and basic statistical area are obtained from Taiwan National Geographic Information System, Ministry of Internal Affairs. Results: Estimated population live within 20 km of hospital A and B was 1,515,846 and 323,472 according to traditional administrative district and was 1,506,325 and 428,556 according to basic statistical area. Conclusion: In urban area, the estimated access population to PCI services was similar between two geographic units. However, in rural areas, the access population would be overestimated.

Keywords: accessibility, basic statistical area, modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)

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Authors: Ashutosh Saxena, Kumar Pallav, Ramji Dwivedi

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The present study estimates the seismicity parameter 'b' and maximum possible magnitude of an earthquake (Mmax) for Gujarat region with three well-established methods viz. Kijiko parametric model (KP), Kijiko-Sellevol-Bayern (KSB) and Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR), as a combined seismic source regime. The earthquake catalogue is prepared for a period of 1330 to 2013 in the region Latitudes 20o N to 250 N and Longitudinally extending from 680 to 750 E for earthquake moment magnitude (Mw) ≥4.0. The ’a’ and 'b' value estimated for the region as 4.68 and 0.58. Further, Mmax estimated as 8.54 (± 0.29), 8.69 (± 0.48), and 8.12 with KP, KSB, and TGR, respectively.

Keywords: Mmax, seismicity parameter, Gujarat, Tapered Gutenberg-Richter

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Authors: F. Calderón-Vega, A. D. García-Soto, C. Mösso

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Recorded significant wave heights sometimes exhibit large uncommon values (outliers) that can be associated with extreme phenomena such as hurricanes and cold fronts. In this study, some extremely large wave heights recorded in NOAA buoys (National Data Buoy Center, noaa.gov) are used to investigate their effect in the prediction of future wave heights associated with given return periods. Extreme waves are predicted through a time-dependent model based on the so-called generalized extreme value distribution. It is found that the outliers do affect the estimated wave heights. It is concluded that a detailed inspection of outliers is envisaged to determine whether they are real recorded values since this will impact defining design wave heights for coastal protection purposes.

Keywords: GEV model, non-stationary, seasonality, outliers

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Authors: Manjunath Attibele, Alsawafi Manal, Al Dughaishi Tamima

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Introduction: The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics and types of mechanisms of injuries caused by Motor vehicle accidents (MVA) during pregnancy. To analyze the patterns of accidents during pregnancy and its adverse consequences on both maternal and fetal outcome. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study on pregnant patients who met with MVAs The study period was from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019. All relevant data were retrieved from electronic patients’ records from the hospital information system and from the antenatal ward admission register Results: Out of 168 women who had motor vehicle accidents during the study period, of which, 39 (23.2%) women during pregnancy. Twenty-one (53.8%) women were over 30 years old. Thirty-five (89.7%) women were Omanis, and 27 (69.2%) were in their third trimester. Twenty-three (59%) of accidents happened at night, and 31 (79.5%) of them happened on a weekday. Twenty-two (56.4%) of women were driving themselves, and 24 (61.5%) of them were not using any seatbelt. Accident related abdominal & back pain was seen in 23(59%) women. Regarding the outcome of pregnancy, 23 (74.2%) had a normal vaginal delivery. The mean accident to delivery interval was 7 weeks. Thirty (96.7%) of involved newborns were relatively healthy. One woman (3.2%) had a ruptured uterusleading to fetal death (3.2%). Conclusion: This study showed that the incidence of motor vehicle accidents during pregnancy is around 23.2% . Majority had trauma-associated pain. One serious injury to a woman causing a ruptured uterus which lead to fetal death. Majority of involved newborns were relatively healthy. No reported maternal death.

Keywords: motor vehicle accidents, pregnancy, maternal outcome, fetal outcome

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Authors: N. C. Sarkar, A. Bhaskar, Z. Zheng

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The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.

Keywords: area-based traffic, car-following model, micro-simulation, stochastic modeling

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: Ratchadaporn Ungcharoen, Lily Ingsrisawang

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Capture-recapture methods are popular techniques for indirect estimation the size of wildlife populations and the completeness of cases in epidemiology and social sciences. The aim of this study was to estimate the completeness of pulmonary tuberculosis cases confirmed by two sources of hospital registrations and surveillance systems in 2013 in Nakhon Pathom province, Thailand. Several estimators of population size were considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, the Chapman estimator, the Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, etc. We focus on the Chapman and Chao’s lower bound estimators for estimating the completeness of pulmonary tuberculosis from two sources. The retrieved pulmonary tuberculosis data from two sources were analyzed and bootstrapped for 30 samples, with 241 observations from source 1 and 305 observations from source 2 per sample, for additional exploration of the completeness of pulmonary tuberculosis. The results from the original data show that the Chapman’s estimator gave the estimation of a total 360 (95% CI: 349-371) pulmonary tuberculosis cases, resulting in 57% estimated completeness cases. But the Chao’s lower bound estimator estimated the total of 365 (95% CI: 354-376) pulmonary tuberculosis cases and its estimated completeness cases was 55.9%. For the results from bootstrap samples, the Chapman and the Chao’s lower bound estimators gave an estimated 347 (95% CI: 309-385) and 353 (95% CI: 315-390) pulmonary tuberculosis cases, respectively. If for two sources recoding systems are available, record-linkage and capture-recapture analysis can be useful for estimating the completeness of different registration system. Both Chapman and Chao’s lower bound estimator approaches produce very close estimates.

Keywords: capture-recapture, Chao, Chapman, pulmonary tuberculosis

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Authors: Igbekoyi Olusola Esther, Olurankinse Felix

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This paper examined the factors that militate against Will writing among entrepreneurs in Ondo State Nigeria and the effect of intestate death on business continuity after the exit of the entrepreneurs. The paper was written with a view to providing information on the reasons why intestate death is common among entrepreneurs in Ondo State and the effects on continuity of business after death of the initial owners. Data were obtained from primary source through the administration of questionnaires to entrepreneurs drawn from 50 registered manufacturing companies. These companies have been in existence for a minimum of 10 years with minimum staff strength of 20 workers each. These companies were selected using the purposive random sampling technique in order to capture firms that meet the requirements of this paper. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square and regression analysis. The findings of the paper revealed that administration of Will, traditional beliefs, Will execution procedures, age and non- admissibility of Wills in court are the major factors that militates against Will writing among entrepreneurs in Ondo State. It was also discovered that chaos and instability in business, reduction in sales and productivity, poor succession planning, polygamous nature of marriages, difficulty in sourcing for funds and gender preference are joint predictors of business continuity in event intestate death which is evident in the result where R2 =.954;(F 6, 26)= 89.644; (P < 0.01). The individual beta co-efficient, t- statistics and significance of each variable revealed that gender preference (.735; 7.031; .000) and poor succession plan (.402; 2.840; .009) have significant positive effect on business continuity; while reduction in sales and productivity (-.059; -.335; .740) and difficulty in sourcing for funds (-.217; -1.367; .188) have negative effect; other variables also have positive relationship but they are not significant. It is therefore concluded that business continuity after the exit of the entrepreneur is highly dependent on the rebuilding of confidence on Wills administration in ondo state Nigeria, proper succession planning and elimination of gender preferences.

Keywords: intestacy, business continuity, entrepreneurs, will, succession planning

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Authors: Najmeh Jafari, Sona Rostampour Yasouri

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Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an acute hemorrhagic disease. This disease is one of the common diseases between humans and animals, transmitted through tick bites or contact with the blood and secretions or carcasses of infected animals and humans. CCHF is more common in people who work with livestock, such as ranchers, butchers, farmers, slaughterhouse workers, healthcare workers, etc. Its hospital prevalence is also very high. Considering that CCHF can be transmitted through the consumption of food such as beef and sheep meat, this study aims to quickly identify and diagnose the Crimean-Congo fever virus in suspected patients through real-time PCR technique. In the summer of 1402, 20 blood samples were collected separately from Ahvaz and Gilan hospitals. An extraction kit was used to extract the virus RNA. Primers and probes were designed based on the S genomic region, the conserved region in CCHFV. Then, a real-time PCR technique was performed with specific primers and probes. It should be noted that the mentioned technique was repeated several times. The number of 4 samples from the examined samples was determined positive by real-time PCR. This technique has high sensitivity and specificity and the possibility of rapid detection of CCHFV. Therefore, the above method is a good candidate for quick disease diagnosis. By diagnosing the disease, the treatment process can be done faster, and the best prevention methods can be used to control the disease and prevent the death of patients.

Keywords: ahvaz, crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever, gilan, real time PCR

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Authors: Katarína Koňariková, Georgios A. Perdikaris, Lucia Andrezálová, Zdeňka Ďuračková, Lucia Laubertová, Helena Gbelcová, Ingrid Žitňanová

Abstract:

Introduction: The continuous demand for new anti-cancer drugs has stimulated chemotherapeutic research based on the use of essential metalloelements with the aim to develop potential drugs with lower toxicity and higher antiproliferative activity against tumors. Copper(II) and its complexes play an important role as suitable species for antiproliferative tests. Objectives: The central objective of the current study was to investigate the potential in vitro anti-proliferative effects of N-salicylidene-L-glutamato copper (II) complexes and molecular mechanism of apoptosis induced by tested complexes. In our project we tested N-salicylidene-L-glutamato copper (II) complexes ZK1 - [Cu(N-salicylidene-L-glutamato)(H2O)2].H2O; MK0 - ([Cu2(N-sal-D,L-glu)2(isoquinoline)2].2H2O); MK1 - [Cu(N-salicylidene-5-methyl-L-glutamato)(H2O)].H2O; MK3 - transbis(ethanol)tetrakis(imidazol)Cu(II)(2+)bis(N-salicylidene-D,L-glutamato-N,O)-KO:KO´-(imidazol); MK5 - [Cu(N-salicylidene-D,L- glutamato)(2-methylimidazol] at concentration range 0.001-100 µmol/L against human colon carcinoma cell line HT-29 and human breast carcinoma cell line MCF-7. Methods: Viability was assessed by direct counting of 0.4% trypan blue dye-excluding cells after 24, 48 and 72 hour cultivations with or without copper complex and by MTT assay. To analyze the type of cell death and its mechanism induced by our copper complex we used different methods. To distinguish apoptosis from necrosis we used electrophoretic analysis, to study the activity of caspases 8 and 9 – luminometric analysis and caspase activity 3 colorimetric assay. Results: The observed anti-proliferative effect of the copper complexes appeared to be dose-, time- and cell line- dependent. Human colon carcinoma cells HT-29 appeared to be more sensitive to the complex MK0 ([Cu2(N-sal-D,L-glu)2(isoquinoline)2].2H2O) than to ZK1 ([Cu(N-salicylidene-L-glutamato)(H2O)2].H2O) and MK1 ([Cu(N-salicylidene-5-methyl-L-glutamato)(H2O)].H2O)). Human colon carcinoma cells HT-29 appeared to be more sensitive to the complex than human breast carcinoma cells MCF-7. IC50 decreased with time of incubation (24, 48 and 72h) for HT-29, but increased for MCF-7. By electrophoresis we found apoptotic cell death induced by our copper complexes in HT-29 at concentrations 1, 10, 50 and 100 µmol/L after 48h (ZK1) and 72h (MK0, MK1) and in MCF-7 we did not find apoptosis. We also studied molecular mechanism of apoptosis in HT-29 induced by copper complexes. We found active caspase 9 in HT-29 after ZK1 ([Cu(N-salicylidene-L-glutamato)(H2O)2].H2O) and MK1 ([Cu(N-salicylidene-5-methyl-L-glutamato)(H2O)].H2O)) influence and active caspase 8 after MK0 ([Cu2(N-sal-D,L-glu)2(isoquinoline)2].2H2O) influence. Conclusion: Our copper complexes showed cytotoxic activities against human colon carcinoma cells HT-29 and breast cancer cell line MCF-7 in vitro. Apoptosis was activated by mitochondrial pathway (intrinsic pathway) in case of ZK1 [Cu(N-salicylidene-L-glutamato)(H2O)2].H2O; MK1 [Cu(N-salicylidene-5-methyl-L-glutamato)(H2O)].H2O; MK3 - transbis(ethanol)tetrakis(imidazol)Cu(II)(2+)bis(N-salicylidene-D,L-glutamato-N,O)-KO:KO´-(imidazol) and MK5 - [Cu(N-salicylidene-D,L- glutamato)(2-methylimidazol] copper complexes and by death receptors (extrinsic pathway) in case of MK0 [Cu2(N-sal-D,L-glu)2(isoquinoline)2].2H2O copper complex in HT-29.

Keywords: apoptosis, copper complex, cancer, carcinoma cell line

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Authors: Kiran Bala

Abstract:

Health, education and employment opportunities available for a common citizen reflect the development status of a country. Health of an individual affects the growth of a country in every aspect. According to a study by WHO, India is estimated to lose more than $237 billion of its GDP over the period 2006-15 on account of premature death and morbidity from Non-communicable diseases alone. Each year 37 million people fall below poverty line due to high expenditure on health services they have to incur. Falling sick puts a double burden on them in terms of loss of income and expenditure on health care which pushes them further into debt and poverty. Adding to the gravity of situation, public spending on health in India has itself declined after liberalization from 1.3% of GDP in 1990 to 0.9% in 1999. The Approach Paper of the Government of India to the Twelfth Five Year Plan indicated that health expenditure alone as a per cent of GDP was about 1.4 per cent (B.E.) in 2011-12. It also mentioned that if one included expenditure on rural water supply and sanitation, the figure would be about 1.8 per cent. Given the abysmally low level of priority accorded to health in Indian economic policy, it becomes rather important to study the representation of health in the Indian public sphere. To this end, this study examines the prioritization of health in the public policy agenda of the national/regional political parties as evidenced in their election manifestos at a time when the nation is poised to go for the General Elections. The paper also focuses attention on the prioritization of health in the public perception as evidenced in their reasons for their preferences for a particular party or individual contestant. To arrive at the reasons for the priority level accorded by the political actors and the citizens, the study uses Focus groups of health policy makers, media persons, medical practitioners and voters. Collected data will be analysed in the theoretical framework of spiral of silence and agenda setting theory.

Keywords: health, election manifestos, public perception, policies

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Ganiyat Soliu, Glen Bright, Chiemela Onunka

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Performance optimization plays a key role in controlling the waiting time during manufacturing in an advanced manufacturing environment to improve productivity. Queuing mathematical modeling theory was used to examine the performance of the multi-stage production line. Robotics as a disruptive technology was implemented into a virtual manufacturing scenario during the packaging process to study the effect of waiting time on productivity. The queuing mathematical model was used to determine the optimum service rate required by robots during the packaging stage of manufacturing to yield an optimum production cost. Different rates of production were assumed in a virtual manufacturing environment, cost of packaging was estimated with optimum production cost. An equation was generated using queuing mathematical modeling theory and the theorem adopted for analysis of the scenario is the Newton Raphson theorem. Queuing theory presented here provides an adequate analysis of the number of robots required to regulate waiting time in order to increase the number of output. Arrival rate of the product was fast which shows that queuing mathematical model was effective in minimizing service cost and the waiting time during manufacturing. At a reduced waiting time, there was an improvement in the number of products obtained per hour. The overall productivity was improved based on the assumptions used in the queuing modeling theory implemented in the virtual manufacturing scenario.

Keywords: performance optimization, productivity, queuing theory, robotics

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Authors: Nayak Amar, Turner Naomi, Gobina Edward

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The Scottish Higher Education Institutes must report their scope 1 & 2 emissions, whereas reporting scope 3 is optional. Scope 3 is indirect emissions which embodies a significant component of total carbon footprint and therefore it is important to record, measure and report it accurately. Robert Gordon University (RGU) reported only business travel, grid transmission and distribution, water supply and transport, and recycling scope 3 emissions. This study estimates the RGUs total scope 3 emissions by comparing it with a similar HEI in scale. The scope 3 emission reporting of sixteen Scottish HEI was studied. Glasgow Caledonian University was identified as the nearest neighbour by comparing its students' full time equivalent, staff full time equivalent, research-teaching split, budget, and foundation year. Apart from the peer, data was also collected from the Higher Education Statistics Agency database. RGU reported emissions from business travel, grid transmission and distribution, water supply, and transport and recycling. This study estimated RGUs scope 3 emissions from procurement, student-staff commute, and international student trip. The result showed that RGU covered only 11% of the scope 3 emissions. The major contributor to scope 3 emissions were procurement (48%), student commute (21%), international student trip (16%), and staff commute (4%). The estimated scope 3 emission was more than 14 times the reported emissions. This study has shown the relative importance of each scope 3 emissions source, which gives a guideline for the HEIs, on where to focus their attention to capture maximum scope 3 emissions. Moreover, it has demonstrated that it is possible to estimate the scope 3 emissions with limited data.

Keywords: HEI, university, emission calculations, scope 3 emissions, emissions reporting

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Authors: Kheireddine El-Boubbou

Abstract:

Drug delivery to target human acute myeloid leukemia (AML) using a nanoparticulate chemotherapeutic formulation that can deliver drugs selectively to AML cancer is hugely needed. In this work, we report the development of a nanoformulation made of polymeric-stabilized multifunctional magnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (PMNP) loaded with the anticancer drug Doxorubicin (Dox) as a promising drug carrier to treat AML. Dox@PMNP conjugates simultaneously exhibited high drug content, maximized fluorescence, and excellent release properties. Nanoparticulate uptake and cell death following addition of Dox@PMNPs were then evaluated in different types of human AML target cells, as well as on normal human cells. While the unloaded MNPs were not toxic to any of the cells, Dox@PMNPs were found to be highly toxic to the different AML cell lines, albeit at different inhibitory concentrations (IC₅₀ values), but showed very little toxicity towards the normal cells. In comparison, free Dox showed significant potency concurrently to all the cell lines, suggesting huge potentials for the use of Dox@PMNPs as selective AML anticancer cargos. Live confocal imaging, fluorescence and electron microscopy confirmed that Dox is indeed delivered to the nucleus in relatively short periods of time, causing apoptotic cell death. Importantly, this targeted payload may potentially enhance the effectiveness of the drug in AML patients and may further allow physicians to image leukemic cells exposed to Dox@PMNPs using MRI.

Keywords: magnetic nanoparticles, drug delivery, acute myeloid leukemia, iron oxide, cancer nanotherapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Micaella L. Gonzales, Joanne C. Alonzo, Nizza E. Regalado, Rosary L. Valenzuela

Abstract:

Culture functions as a lens through which individuals experience universal phenomena. This study explored Filipino mothers’ experience of miscarriage, or having been ‘nakunan’ - a colloquial term for fetal death. In addition, this study also aims to establish an understanding of the concept in Filipino society. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 13 Filipino women who had experienced miscarriage. Following thematic analysis, there emerged several themes within certain aspects (i.e. physical, psychological, inter-relational) of a woman’s life closely intertwined the experience, further reiterating the multidimensionality of the experience. Results show that Filipino values of family-centeredness and religiosity played a big part in women’s experiences. Family-centeredness was seen interwoven in the women’s self-concept and interrelations with others following her miscarriage, and religiosity came into play in the women’s personal definitions, perceived causes, and coping with what had happened to them.

Keywords: bereavement, fetal death, Filipino mothers, miscarriage

Procedia PDF Downloads 226