Search results for: earthquake disaster

Authors: Cesar Vazquez-Gonzalez, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Leonardo Ortiz-Lozano, Patricia Moreno-Casasola, Alejandro Granados-Barba

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In the last twenty years, academic and scientific literature has been focused on understanding the processes and factors of coastal social-ecological systems vulnerability and resilience. Some scholars argue that resilience and vulnerability are isolated concepts due to their epistemological origin, while others note the existence of a strong resilience-vulnerability relationship. Here we present an ordinal logistic regression model based on the analytical framework about dynamic resilience-vulnerability interaction along adaptive cycle of complex systems and disasters process phases (during, recovery and learning). In this way, we demonstrate that 1) during the disturbance, absorptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to diminish the damage, and exposure sets the thresholds about the amount of disturbance that households can absorb, 2) at recovery, absorptive capacity and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to recovery faster (resilience as an outcome) from damage, and 3) at learning, adaptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) explains the probability of households adaptation measures based on the enhancement of physical capital. As a result, during the disturbance phase, exposure has the greatest weight in the probability of capital’s damage, and households with absorptive and external response capacity elements absorbed the impact of floods in comparison with households without these elements. At the recovery phase, households with absorptive and external response capacity showed a faster recovery on their capital; however, the damage sets the thresholds of recovery time. More importantly, diversity in financial capital increases the probability of recovering other capital, but it becomes a liability so that the probability of recovering the household finances in a longer time increases. At learning-reorganizing phase, adaptation (modifications to the house) increases the probability of having less damage on physical capital; however, it is not very relevant. As conclusion, resilience is an outcome but also core of attributes that interacts with vulnerability along the adaptive cycle and disaster process phases. Absorptive capacity can diminish the damage experienced by floods; however, when exposure overcomes thresholds, both absorptive and external response capacity are not enough. In the same way, absorptive and external response capacity diminish the recovery time of capital, but the damage sets the thresholds in where households are not capable of recovering their capital.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, capital, floods, recovery-learning, social-ecological systems

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Authors: Yagya Murti Aryal, Bipin Adhikari, Pradeep Gyawali

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The Lesser Himalaya zone of Nepal consists of thrusting and folding belts, which play an important role in the sustainable management of groundwater in the Himalayan regions. The study area is located in the Dolakha and Ramechhap Districts of Bagmati Province, Nepal. Geologically, these districts are situated in the Lesser Himalayas and partly encompass the Higher Himalayan rock sequence, which includes low-grade to high-grade metamorphic rocks. Following the Gorkha Earthquake in 2015, numerous springs dried up, and many others are currently experiencing depletion due to the distortion of the natural groundwater flow. The primary objective of this study is to identify potential groundwater areas and determine suitable sites for artificial groundwater recharge. Two distinct statistical approaches were used to develop models: The Frequency Ratio (FR) and Shannon Entropy (SE) methods. The study utilized both primary and secondary datasets and incorporated significant role and controlling factors derived from field works and literature reviews. Field data collection involved spring inventory, soil analysis, lithology assessment, and hydro-geomorphology study. Additionally, slope, aspect, drainage density, and lineament density were extracted from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using GIS and transformed into thematic layers. For training and validation, 114 springs were divided into a 70/30 ratio, with an equal number of non-spring pixels. After assigning weights to each class based on the two proposed models, a groundwater potential map was generated using GIS, classifying the area into five levels: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The model's outcome reveals that over 41% of the area falls into the low and very low potential categories, while only 30% of the area demonstrates a high probability of groundwater potential. To evaluate model performance, accuracy was assessed using the Area under the Curve (AUC). The success rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were determined to be 78.73% and 77.09%, respectively. Additionally, the prediction rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were calculated as 76.31% and 74.08%. The results indicate that the FR model exhibits greater prediction capability compared to the SE model in this case study.

Keywords: groundwater potential mapping, frequency ratio, Shannon’s Entropy, Lesser Himalaya Zone, sustainable groundwater management

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Authors: Emiliano Matta

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Passive resonant vibration absorbers are among the most widely used dynamic control systems in civil engineering. They typically consist in a single-degree-of-freedom mechanical appendage of the main structure, tuned to one structural target mode through frequency and damping optimization. One classical scheme is the pendulum absorber, whose mass is constrained to move along a curved trajectory and is damped by viscous dashpots. Even though the principle is well known, the search for improved arrangements is still under way. In recent years this investigation inspired a type of bidirectional pendulum absorber (BPA), consisting of a mass constrained to move along an optimal three-dimensional (3D) concave surface. For such a BPA, the surface principal curvatures are designed to ensure a bidirectional tuning of the absorber to both principal modes of the main structure, while damping is produced either by horizontal viscous dashpots or by vertical friction dashpots, connecting the BPA to the main structure. In this paper, a variant of BPA is proposed, where damping originates from the variable tangential friction force which develops between the pendulum mass and the 3D surface as a result of a spatially-varying friction coefficient pattern. Namely, a friction coefficient is proposed that varies along the pendulum surface in proportion to the modulus of the 3D surface gradient. With such an assumption, the dissipative model of the absorber can be proven to be nonlinear homogeneous in the small displacement domain. The resulting homogeneous BPA (HBPA) has a fundamental advantage over conventional friction-type absorbers, because its equivalent damping ratio results independent on the amplitude of oscillations, and therefore its optimal performance does not depend on the excitation level. On the other hand, the HBPA is more compact than viscously damped BPAs because it does not need the installation of dampers. This paper presents the analytical model of the HBPA and an optimal methodology for its design. Numerical simulations of single- and multi-story building structures under wind and earthquake loads are presented to compare the HBPA with classical viscously damped BPAs. It is shown that the HBPA is a promising alternative to existing BPA types and that homogeneous tangential friction is an effective means to realize systems provided with amplitude-independent damping.

Keywords: amplitude-independent damping, homogeneous friction, pendulum nonlinear dynamics, structural control, vibration resonant absorbers

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Authors: Giuliana Scuderi, Patrick Teuffel

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The proven vulnerability of the existing social housing building heritage to natural or induced earthquakes requires the development of new design concepts and conceptual method to preserve materials and object, at the same time providing new performances. An integrate intervention between civil engineering, building physics and architecture can convert the social housing districts from a critical part of the city to a strategic resource of revitalization. Referring to bio-mimicry principles the present research proposes a taxonomy with the exoskeleton of the insect, an external, light and resistant armour whose role is to protect the internal organs from external potentially dangerous inputs. In the same way, a “building exoskeleton”, acting from the outside of the building as an enclosing cage, can restore, protect and support the existing building, assuming a complex set of roles, from the structural to the thermal, from the aesthetical to the functional. This study evaluates the structural efficiency of shape memory alloys devices (SMADs) connecting the “building exoskeleton” with the existing structure to rehabilitate, in order to prevent the out-of-plane collapse of walls and for the passive dissipation of the seismic energy, with a calibrated operability in relation to the intensity of the horizontal loads. The two case studies of a masonry structure and of a masonry structure with concrete frame are considered, and for each case, a theoretical social housing building is exposed to earthquake forces, to evaluate its structural response with or without SMADs. The two typologies are modelled with the finite element program SAP2000, and they are respectively defined through a “frame model” and a “diagonal strut model”. In the same software two types of SMADs, called the 00-10 SMAD and the 05-10 SMAD are defined, and non-linear static and dynamic analyses, namely push over analysis and time history analysis, are performed to evaluate the seismic response of the building. The effectiveness of the devices in limiting the control joint displacements resulted higher in one direction, leading to the consideration of a possible calibrated use of the devices in the different walls of the building. The results show also a higher efficiency of the 00-10 SMADs in controlling the interstory drift, but at the same time the necessity to improve the hysteretic behaviour, to maximise the passive dissipation of the seismic energy.

Keywords: adaptive structure, biomimetic design, building exoskeleton, social housing, structural envelope, structural retrofitting

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Authors: Marcelo Sanhueza Cartes, Nelson Maureira Carsalade

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This research evaluates the effectiveness of a pallet isolation device for the protection of selective-type industrial storage racks. The device works only in the longitudinal direction of the aisle, and it is made up of a platform installed on the rack beams. At both ends, the platform is connected to the rack structure by means of a spring-damper system working in parallel. A system of wheels is arranged between the isolation platform and the rack beams in order to reduce friction, decoupling of the movement and improve the effectiveness of the device. The latter is evaluated by the reduction of the maximum dynamic responses of basal shear load and story drift in relation to those corresponding to the same rack with the traditional construction system. In the first stage, numerical simulations of industrial storage racks were carried out with and without the pallet isolation device. The numerical results allowed us to identify the archetypes in which it would be more appropriate to carry out experimental tests, thus limiting the number of trials. In the second stage, experimental tests were carried out on a shaking table to a select group of full-scale racks with and without the proposed device. The movement simulated by the shaking table was based on the Mw 8.8 magnitude earthquake of February 27, 2010, in Chile, registered at the San Pedro de la Paz station. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) was scaled in the frequency domain to fit its response spectrum with the design spectrum of NCh433. The experimental setup contemplates the installation of sensors to measure relative displacement and absolute acceleration. The movement of the shaking table with respect to the ground, the inter-story drift of the rack and the pallets with respect to the rack structure were recorded. Accelerometers redundantly measured all of the above in order to corroborate measurements and adequately capture low and high-frequency vibrations, whereas displacement and acceleration sensors are respectively more reliable. The numerical and experimental results allowed us to identify that the pallet isolation period is the variable with the greatest influence on the dynamic responses considered. It was also possible to identify that the proposed device significantly reduces both the basal cut and the maximum inter-story drift by up to one order of magnitude.

Keywords: pallet isolation system, industrial storage racks, basal shear load, interstory drift.

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Authors: Robel Wondimu Alemayehu, Sihwa Jung, Manwoo Park, Young K. Ju

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Following the aftermath of the 1994 Northridge earthquake, intensive research on beam to column connections is conducted, leading to the current design basis. The current design codes require the use of either a prequalified connection or a connection that passes the requirements of large-scale cyclic qualification test prior to use in intermediate or special moment frames. The second alternative is expensive both in terms of money and time. On the other hand, the maximum beam depth in most of the prequalified connections is limited to 900mm due to the reduced rotation capacity of deeper beams. However, for long span beams the need to use deeper beams may arise. In this study, a beam to column connection detail suitable for deep beams is presented. The connection detail comprises of thicker-tapered beam flange adjacent to the beam to column connection. Within the thicker-tapered flange region, two reduced beam sections are provided with the objective of forming two plastic hinges within the tapered-thicker flange region. In addition, the length, width, and thickness of the tapered-thicker flange region are proportioned in such a way that a third plastic hinge forms at the end of the tapered-thicker flange region. As a result, the total rotation demand is distributed over three plastic zones. Making it suitable for deeper beams that have lower rotation capacity at one plastic hinge. The effectiveness of this connection detail is studied through finite element analysis. For the study, a beam that has a depth of 1200mm is used. Additionally, comparison with welded unreinforced flange-welded web (WUF-W) moment connection and reduced beam section moment connection is made. The results show that the rotation capacity of a WUF-W moment connection is increased from 2.0% to 2.2% by applying the proposed moment connection detail. Furthermore, the maximum moment capacity, energy dissipation capacity and stiffness of the WUF-W moment connection is increased up to 58%, 49%, and 32% respectively. In contrast, applying the reduced beam section detail to the same WUF-W moment connection reduced the rotation capacity from 2.0% to 1.50% plus the maximum moment capacity and stiffness of the connection is reduced by 22% and 6% respectively. The proposed connection develops three plastic hinge regions as intended and it shows improved performance compared to both WUF-W moment connection and reduced beam section moment connection. Moreover, the achieved rotation capacity satisfies the minimum required for use in intermediate moment frames.

Keywords: connections, finite element analysis, seismic design, steel intermediate moment frame

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Authors: Nadeem Yousuf Khan

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This paper proposes the formation of a digital emergency response system (dERS) in the aged, long-term care, and chronic disease setups in the post-COVID healthcare ecosystem, focusing on the Asia Pacific market where the aging population is increasing significantly. It focuses on the use of digital technologies such as wearables, a global positioning system (GPS), and mobile applications to build an integrated care system for old folks with co-morbidities and other chronic diseases. The paper presents a conceptual framework of a connected digital health ecosystem that not only provides proactive care to registered patients but also prevents the damages due to sudden conditions such as strokes by alerting and treating the patients in a digitally connected and coordinated manner. A detailed review of existing digital health technologies such as wearables, GPS, and mobile apps was conducted in context with the new post-COVID healthcare paradigm, along with a detailed literature review on the digital health policies and usability. A good amount of research papers is available in the application of digital health, but very few of them discuss the formation of a new framework for a connected digital ecosystem for the aged care population, which is increasing around the globe. A connected digital emergency response system has been proposed by the author whereby all registered patients (chronic disease and aged/long term care) will be connected to the proposed digital emergency response system (dERS). In the proposed ecosystem, patients will be provided with a tracking wrist band and a mobile app through which the control room will be monitoring the mobility and vitals such as atrial fibrillation (AF), blood sugar, blood pressure, and other vital signs. In addition to that, an alert in case if the patient falls down will add value to this system. In case of any variation in the vitals, an alert is sent to the dERS 24/7, and dERS clinical staff immediately trigger that alert which goes to the connected hospital and the adulatory service providers, and the patient is escorted to the nearest connected tertiary care hospital. By the time, the patient reaches the hospital, dERS team is ready to take appropriate clinical action to save the life of the patient. Strokes or myocardial infarction patients can be prevented from disaster if they are accessible to engagement healthcare. This dERS will play an effective role in saving the lives of aged patients or patients with chronic co-morbidities.

Keywords: aged care, atrial fibrillation, digital health, digital emergency response system, digital technology

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Authors: B. Kriheli, E. Levner, T. C. E. Cheng, C. T. Ng

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During the last decades, research interest in planning, scheduling, and control of emergency response operations, especially people rescue and evacuation from the dangerous zone of marine accidents, has increased dramatically. Until the survivors (called ‘targets’) are found and saved, it may cause loss or damage whose extent depends on the location of the targets and the search duration. The problem is to efficiently search for and detect/rescue the targets as soon as possible with the help of intelligent mobile robots so as to maximize the number of saved people and/or minimize the search cost under restrictions on the amount of saved people within the allowable response time. We consider a special situation when the autonomous mobile robots (AMR), e.g., unmanned aerial vehicles and remote-controlled robo-ships have no operator on board as they are guided and completely controlled by on-board sensors and computer programs. We construct a mathematical model for the search process in an uncertain environment and provide a new fast algorithm for scheduling the activities of the autonomous robots during the search-and rescue missions after an accident at sea. We presume that in the unknown environments, the AMR’s search-and-rescue activity is subject to two types of error: (i) a 'false-negative' detection error where a target object is not discovered (‘overlooked') by the AMR’s sensors in spite that the AMR is in a close neighborhood of the latter and (ii) a 'false-positive' detection error, also known as ‘a false alarm’, in which a clean place or area is wrongly classified by the AMR’s sensors as a correct target. As the general resource-constrained discrete search problem is NP-hard, we restrict our study to finding local-optimal strategies. A specificity of the considered operational research problem in comparison with the traditional Kadane-De Groot-Stone search models is that in our model the probability of the successful search outcome depends not only on cost/time/probability parameters assigned to each individual location but, as well, on parameters characterizing the entire history of (unsuccessful) search before selecting any next location. We provide a fast approximation algorithm for finding the AMR route adopting a greedy search strategy in which, in each step, the on-board computer computes a current search effectiveness value for each location in the zone and sequentially searches for a location with the highest search effectiveness value. Extensive experiments with random and real-life data provide strong evidence in favor of the suggested operations research model and corresponding algorithm.

Keywords: disaster management, intelligent robots, scheduling algorithm, search-and-rescue at sea

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Authors: Mohammad R. Jalali

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Movement of liquid with a free surface in a container is known as slosh. For instance, slosh occurs when water in a closed tank is set in motion by a free surface displacement, or when liquid natural gas in a container is vibrated by an external driving force, such as an earthquake or movement induced by transport. Slosh is also derived from resonant switching of a natural basin. During sloshing, different types of motion are produced by energy exchange between the liquid and its container. In present study, a numerical model is developed to simulate the nonlinear even harmonic oscillations of free surface sloshing of an initial disturbance to the free surface of a liquid in a closed square basin. The response of the liquid free surface is affected by amplitude and motion frequencies of its container; therefore, sloshing involves complex fluid-structure interactions. In the present study, nonlinear interaction of free surface sloshing of an initial Gaussian hump with its uneven container is predicted numerically. For this purpose, Green-Naghdi (GN) equations are applied as governing equation of fluid field to produce nonlinear second-order and higher-order wave interactions. These equations reduce the dimensions from three to two, yielding equations that can be solved efficiently. The GN approach assumes a particular flow kinematic structure in the vertical direction for shallow and deep-water problems. The fluid velocity profile is finite sum of coefficients depending on space and time multiplied by a weighting function. It should be noted that in GN theory, the flow is rotational. In this study, GN numerical simulations of initial Gaussian hump are compared with Fourier series semi-analytical solutions of the linearized shallow water equations. The comparison reveals that satisfactory agreement exists between the numerical simulation and the analytical solution of the overall free surface sloshing patterns. The resonant free surface motions driven by an initial Gaussian disturbance are obtained by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the free surface elevation time history components. Numerically predicted velocity vectors and magnitude contours for the free surface patterns indicate that interaction of Gaussian hump with its container has localized effect. The result of this sloshing is applicable to the design of stable liquefied oil containers in tankers and offshore platforms.

Keywords: fluid-structure interactions, free surface sloshing, Gaussian hump, Green-Naghdi equations, numerical predictions

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Authors: Ishrat Zakia Sultana

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The consistent persecution, ethnic cleansing, and genocide against the Rohingya in Burma resulted four major influxes of the Rohingya people to the neighboring country Bangladesh. After the latest influx of October 2016 and August 2017, the total number of Rohingya in Bangladesh stands somewhere between 900,000 to over one million, placing Bangladesh much ahead with the number of refugees compared to Dadaab and Kakuma in Kenya, Bidibidi in Uganda and Zaatari in Jordan. While Bangladesh received recognition and appreciation for receiving a huge number of the Rohingya, one of the fundamental human rights of the Rohingya – education – has never been fulfilled in Bangladesh. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief of the government of Bangladesh has been looking after the Rohingya and managing various programs for the Rohingya. On its website, the Ministry claims that it provides the basic supports/services to the Rohingya, including providing education. In practice, however, education for the Rohingya include only the provisions for registered Rohingya refugees – who are a very small number of populations among the entire Rohingya hosted in Bangladesh – and that is only up to grade 7 within the registered camps at Teknaf and Ukhia of Cox’s Bazar district of the country. There is no answer of the question, ‘What’s next’? Although refugees in Canada, Sudan, Turkey and other countries have been allowed to go to mainstream schools, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are not allowed to do so legally. Due to the lack of proof of nationality of the Rohingya, the government of Bangladesh imposes restrictions on their access to Bangladeshi schools. However, despite their vulnerability and statelessness, many Rohingyas are desperate to pursue education outside the camps and find their own way not only within Cox’s Bazar but also even in the capital city of the country. But they must hide their refugee identity to accomplish this. My research aims to explore how they manage to get admission amid government restrictions on their access to education in the mainstream institutions in Bangladesh. It will reveal how Rohingya people use adopted identity to get access to education in Bangladesh, and how they apply their own techniques to achieve their goals without having government approved identity. This research examined the strategies the Rohingya applied to manage documents related to their identity to ensure their admission to Bangladeshi education institutions – in schools, colleges, and universities. The research employed a qualitative approach. It used semi structured individual interviews and Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) with 20 male and female Rohingya refugees who are 18 years old and above, and have enrolled in Bangladeshi education institutions with adopted identity. Also I interviewed 5 local community members and policy makers to understand their perceptions and roles in this process. The findings of this research will allow the policy makers to rethink the outcomes of the restrictions on Rohingya’s education in Bangladesh, the ramifications of the denial of Rohingya’s access to education, and initiate policy dialogues on how to allow Rohingya refugees to pursue education in Bangladesh in legal way.

Keywords: Rohingya, Refugee, Bangladesh, Education

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Authors: Qiyao Han, Xianhai Meng

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Urban infrastructures refer to the fundamental facilities and systems that serve cities. Due to the global climate change and human activities in recent years, many urban areas around the world are facing enormous challenges from natural and man-made disasters, like flood, earthquake and terrorist attack. For this reason, urban resilience to disasters has attracted increasing attention from researchers and practitioners. Given the complexity of infrastructure systems and the uncertainty of disasters, this paper suggests that studies of resilience could focus on urban functional sustainability (in social, economic and environmental dimensions) supported by infrastructure systems under disturbance. It is supposed that urban infrastructure systems with high resilience should be able to reconfigure themselves without significant declines in critical functions (services), such as primary productivity, hydrological cycles, social relations and economic prosperity. Despite that some methods have been developed to integrate the resilience and sustainability of individual infrastructure components, more work is needed to enable system-level integration. This research presents a conceptual analysis framework for integrating resilience and sustainability based on fractal theory. It is believed that the ability of an ecological system to maintain structure and function in face of disturbance and to reorganize following disturbance-driven change is largely dependent on its self-similar and hierarchical fractal structure, in which cross-scale resilience is produced by the replication of ecosystem processes dominating at different levels. Urban infrastructure systems are analogous to ecological systems because they are interconnected, complex and adaptive, are comprised of interconnected components, and exhibit characteristic scaling properties. Therefore, analyzing resilience of ecological system provides a better understanding about the dynamics and interactions of infrastructure systems. This paper discusses fractal characteristics of ecosystem resilience, reviews literature related to system-level infrastructure resilience, identifies resilience criteria associated with sustainability dimensions, and develops a conceptual analysis framework. Exploration of the relevance of identified criteria to fractal characteristics reveals that there is a great potential to analyze infrastructure systems based on fractal. In the conceptual analysis framework, it is proposed that in order to be resilient, urban infrastructure system needs to be capable of “maintaining” and “reorganizing” multi-scale critical functions under disasters. Finally, the paper identifies areas where further research efforts are needed.

Keywords: fractal, urban infrastructure, sustainability, system-level resilience

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Authors: Rupam Saikia, Ashim Kanti Dey

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Sonapur is an intense hilly region on the border of Assam and Meghalaya lying in North-East India and is very near to a seismic fault named as Dauki besides which makes the region seismically active. Besides, these recently two earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 and 6.9 have struck North-East India in January and April 2016. Also, the slope concerned for this study is adjacent to NH 44 which for a long time has been a sole important connecting link to the states of Manipur and Mizoram along with some parts of Assam and so has been a cause of considerable loss to life and property since past decades as there has been several recorded incidents of landslide, road-blocks, etc. mostly during the rainy season which comes into news. Based on this issue this paper reports a static and dynamic slope stability analysis of Sonapur which has been carried out in MIDAS GTS NX. The slope being highly unreachable due to terrain and thick vegetation in-situ test was not feasible considering the current scope available so disturbed soil sample was collected from the site for the determination of strength parameters. The strength parameters were so determined for varying relative density with further variation in water content. The slopes were analyzed considering plane strain condition for three slope heights of 5 m, 10 m and 20 m which were then further categorized based on slope angles 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 considering the possible extent of steepness. Initially static analysis under dry state was performed then considering the worst case that can develop during rainy season the slopes were analyzed for fully saturated condition along with partial degree of saturation with an increase in the waterfront. Furthermore, dynamic analysis was performed considering the El-Centro Earthquake which had a magnitude of 6.7 and peak ground acceleration of 0.3569g at 2.14 sec for the slope which were found to be safe during static analysis under both dry and fully saturated condition. Some of the conclusions were slopes with inclination above 40 onwards were found to be highly vulnerable for slopes of height 10 m and above even under dry static condition. Maximum horizontal displacement showed an exponential increase with an increase in inclination from 30 to 70. The vulnerability of the slopes was seen to be further increased during rainy season as even slopes of minimal steepness of 30 for height 20 m was seen to be on the verge of failure. Also, during dynamic analysis slopes safe during static analysis were found to be highly vulnerable. Lastly, as a part of the study a comparative study on Strength Reduction Method (SRM) versus Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) was also carried out and some of the advantages and disadvantages were figured out.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, factor of safety, slope stability, strength reduction method

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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We examined the plausibility of transition theory suggesting that memories of transitional events, which give rise to a significant and persistent change in the fabric of daily life, are organized around the historically defined autobiographical periods (H-DAPs). 141 Pakistani older adults retrieved 10 autobiographical memories (AMs) each to 10 cue words. As the history of Pakistan is dominated by various political and nationwide transitional events, it was expected that the participants would recall memories with H-DAPs references. The content analysis revealed that 0.7% of memories had H-DAP references and 0.4% memories mentioned major transitional events such as War/Natural Disaster. There was a vivid reminiscence bump between 10 - 20 years of age in lifespan distribution of AMs. There were 67.9% social-focused AMs. Significantly more self-focused memories were reported by individuals who endorsed themselves as conservatives. Only a few H-DAPs were reported, although the history of Pakistan was dominated by numerous political, historical and nationwide transitional events. Memories within and outside of the bump period were mostly positive. The participants rarely used historical/political or nationwide significant events or periods to date the memories elicited. The intense and nationwide (as well as region-wise) significant historical/political events spawned across decades in the lives of participants of the present study but these events did not produce H-DAPs. The findings contradicted the previous studies on H-DAPs and transition theory. The dominance of social-focused AMs in the present study is in line with the past studies comparing the memories of collectivist and individualist cultures (i.e., European Americans vs. Asian, African and Latin-American cultures). The past empirical evidence shows that conservative values and beliefs are adopted as a coping strategy to feel secure in the face of danger when future is dominated with uncertainty and to connect to likeminded others. In the present study, conservative political ideology is somehow assisting the participants in living a stable life midst of their complex social worlds. The reminiscence bump, as well as dominance of positive memories within and outside the bump period, are in line with the narrative/identity account which states that the events and experiences during adolescence and early adulthood assimilate into a person’s lifelong narratives. Hence these events are used as identity markers and are more easily recalled later in life. Also, according to socioemotional theory and the positivity effect, the participants evaluated past events more positively as they grow up and the intensity of negative emotions decreased with time.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, historically defined autobiographical periods, narrative/identity account, Pakistan, reminiscence bump, SMS framework, transition theory

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Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

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Landslide is the major geo-environmental problem of Himalaya because of high ridges, steep slopes, deep valleys, and complex system of streams. They are mainly triggered by rainfall and earthquake and causing severe damage to life and property. In Uttarakhand, the Tehri reservoir rim area, which is situated in the lesser Himalaya of Garhwal hills, was selected for landslide hazard zonation (LHZ). The study utilized different types of data, including geological maps, topographic maps from the survey of India, Landsat 8, and Cartosat DEM data. This paper presents the use of a weighted overlay method in LHZ using fourteen causative factors. The various data layers generated and co-registered were slope, aspect, relative relief, soil cover, intensity of rainfall, seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, lithology, land use/land cover (LULC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), drainage buffer and reservoir buffer. Seismic analysis is performed using peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) intensity and amplification factors in the evaluation of the landslide hazard index (LHI). Several digital image processing techniques such as topographic correction, NDVI, and supervised classification were widely used in the process of terrain factor extraction. Lithological features, LULC, drainage pattern, lineaments, and structural features are extracted using digital image processing techniques. Colour, tones, topography, and stream drainage pattern from the imageries are used to analyse geological features. Slope map, aspect map, relative relief are created by using Cartosat DEM data. DEM data is also used for the detailed drainage analysis, which includes TWI, SPI, drainage buffer, and reservoir buffer. In the weighted overlay method, the comparative importance of several causative factors obtained from experience. In this method, after multiplying the influence factor with the corresponding rating of a particular class, it is reclassified, and the LHZ map is prepared. Further, based on the land-use map developed from remote sensing images, a landslide vulnerability study for the study area is carried out and presented in this paper.

Keywords: weighted overlay method, GIS, landslide hazard zonation, remote sensing

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Authors: Agnetha Schuchardt, Jennifer Hartmann, Laura Schulte, Roman Peperhove, Lars Gerhold

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If critical infrastructures fail, even for a short period of time, it can have significant negative consequences for the affected population. This is especially true for the food sector that is strongly interlinked with other sectors like the power supply. A blackout could lead to several cities being without food supply for numerous days, simply because cash register systems do no longer work properly. Following the public opinion, securing the food supply in emergencies is considered a task of the state, however, in the German context, the key players are private enterprises and private households. Both are not aware of their responsibility and both cannot be forced to take any preventive measures prior to an emergency. This problem became evident to officials and politicians so that the law covering food security was revised in order to include private stakeholders into mitigation processes. The paper will present a scientific review of governmental and regulatory literature. The focus is the inclusion of the food industry through a law reform and the challenges that still exist. Together with legal experts, an analysis of regulations will be presented that explains the development of the law reform concerning food security and emergency storage in Germany. The main findings are that the existing public food emergency storage is out-dated, insufficient and too expensive. The state is required to protect food as a critical infrastructure but does not have the capacities to live up to this role. Through a law reform in 2017, new structures should to established. The innovation was to include the private sector into the civil defense concept since it has the required knowledge and experience. But the food industry is still reluctant. Preventive measures do not serve economic purposes – on the contrary, they cost money. The paper will discuss respective examples like equipping supermarkets with emergency power supply or self-sufficient cash register systems and why the state is not willing to cover the costs of these measures, but neither is the economy. The biggest problem with the new law is that private enterprises can only be forced to support food security if the state of emergency has occurred already and not one minute earlier. The paper will cover two main results: the literature review and an expert workshop that will be conducted in summer 2018 with stakeholders from different parts of the food supply chain as well as officials of the public food emergency concept. The results from this participative process will be presented and recommendations will be offered that show how the private economy could be better included into a modern food emergency concept (e. g. tax reductions for stockpiling).

Keywords: critical infrastructure, disaster control, emergency food storage, food security, private economy, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Manuela Villani, Anila Xhahysa, Christopher Brooks, Marco Pagani

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The geological structure of Western Balkans is strongly affected by the collision between Adria microplate and the southwestern Euroasia margin, resulting in a considerably active seismic region. The Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project (BSHAP) (2007-2011, 2012-2015) by NATO supported the preparation of new seismic hazard maps of the Western Balkan, but when inspecting the seismic hazard models produced later by these countries on a national scale, significant differences in design PGA values are observed in the border, for instance, North Albania-Montenegro, South Albania- Greece, etc. Considering the fact that the catalogues were unified and seismic sources were defined within BSHAP framework, obviously, the differences arise from the Ground Motion Prediction Equations selection, which are generally the component with highest impact on the seismic hazard assessment. At the time of the project, a modest database was present, namely 672 three-component records, whereas nowadays, this strong motion database has increased considerably up to 20,939 records with Mw ranging in the interval 3.7-7 and epicentral distance distribution from 0.47km to 490km. Statistical analysis of the strong motion database showed the lack of recordings in the moderate-to-large magnitude and short distance ranges; therefore, there is need to re-evaluate the Ground Motion Prediction Equation in light of the recently updated database and the new generations of GMMs. In some cases, it was observed that some events were more extensively documented in one database than the other, like the 1979 Montenegro earthquake, with a considerably larger number of records in the BSHAP Analogue SM database when compared to ESM23. Therefore, the strong motion flat-file provided from the Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project was merged with the ESM23 database for the polygon studied in this project. After performing the preliminary residual analysis, the candidate GMPE-s were identified. This process was done using the GMPE performance metrics available within the SMT in the OpenQuake Platform. The Likelihood Model and Euclidean Distance Based Ranking (EDR) were used. Finally, for this study, a GMPE logic tree was selected and following the selection of candidate GMPEs, model weights were assigned using the average sample log-likelihood approach of Scherbaum.

Keywords: residual analysis, GMPE, western balkan, strong motion, openquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Raman Sharma, Ashok Kumar, Vipin Koushal

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Healthcare facilities are always seen as places of haven and protection for managing the external incidents, but the situation becomes more difficult and challenging when such facilities themselves are affected from internal hazards. Such internal hazards are arguably more disruptive than external incidents affecting vulnerable ones, as patients are always dependent on supportive measures and are neither in a position to respond to such crisis situation nor do they know how to respond. The situation becomes more arduous and exigent to manage if, in case critical care areas like Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and Operating Rooms (OR) are convoluted. And, due to these complexities of patients’ in-housed there, it becomes difficult to move such critically ill patients on immediate basis. Healthcare organisations use different types of electrical equipment, inflammable liquids, and medical gases often at a single point of use, hence, any sort of error can spark the fire. Even though healthcare facilities face many fire hazards, damage caused by smoke rather than flames is often more severe. Besides burns, smoke inhalation is primary cause of fatality in fire-related incidents. The greatest cause of illness and mortality in fire victims, particularly in enclosed places, appears to be the inhalation of fire smoke, which contains a complex mixture of gases in addition to carbon monoxide. Therefore, healthcare organizations are required to have a well-planned disaster mitigation strategy, proactive and well prepared manpower to cater all types of exigencies resulting from internal as well as external hazards. This case report delineates a true OR fire incident in Emergency Operation Theatre (OT) of a tertiary care multispecialty hospital and details the real life evidence of the challenges encountered by OR staff in preserving both life and property. No adverse event was reported during or after this fire commotion, yet, this case report aimed to congregate the lessons identified of the incident in a sequential and logical manner. Also, timely smoke evacuation and preventing the spread of smoke to adjoining patient care areas by opting appropriate measures, viz. compartmentation, pressurisation, dilution, ventilation, buoyancy, and airflow, helped to reduce smoke-related fatalities. Henceforth, precautionary measures may be implemented to mitigate such incidents. Careful coordination, continuous training, and fire drill exercises can improve the overall outcomes and minimize the possibility of these potentially fatal problems, thereby making a safer healthcare environment for every worker and patient.

Keywords: healthcare, fires, smoke, management, strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Linta Rose, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Water-level information along the coast is very important for disaster management, navigation, planning shoreline management, coastal engineering and protection works, port and harbour activities, and for a better understanding of near-shore ocean dynamics. The water-level variation along a coast attributes from various factors like astronomical tides, meteorological and hydrological forcing. The study area is the Head Bay of Bengal which is highly vulnerable to flooding events caused by monsoons, cyclones and sea-level rise. The study aims to explore the extent to which wind and surface pressure can influence water-level elevation, in view of the low-lying topography of the coastal zones in the region. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model has been customized for the Head Bay of Bengal, discretized using flexible finite elements and validated against tide gauge observations. Monthly mean climatological wind and mean sea level pressure fields of ERA Interim reanalysis data was used as input forcing to simulate water-level variation in the Head Bay of Bengal, in addition to tidal forcing. The output water-level was compared against that produced using tidal forcing alone, so as to quantify the contribution of meteorological forcing to water-level. The average contribution of meteorological fields to water-level in January is 5.5% at a deep-water location and 13.3% at a coastal location. During the month of July, when the monsoon winds are strongest in this region, this increases to 10.7% and 43.1% respectively at the deep-water and coastal locations. The model output was tested by varying the input conditions of the meteorological fields in an attempt to quantify the relative significance of wind speed and wind direction on water-level. Under uniform wind conditions, the results showed a higher contribution of meteorological fields for south-west winds than north-east winds, when the wind speed was higher. A comparison of the spectral characteristics of output water-level with that generated due to tidal forcing alone showed additional modes with seasonal and annual signatures. Moreover, non-linear monthly mode was found to be weaker than during tidal simulation, all of which point out that meteorological fields do not cause much effect on the water-level at periods less than a day and that it induces non-linear interactions between existing modes of oscillations. The study signifies the role of meteorological forcing under fair weather conditions and points out that a combination of multiple forcing fields including tides, wind, atmospheric pressure, waves, precipitation and river discharge is essential for efficient and effective forecast modelling, especially during extreme weather events.

Keywords: ADCIRC, head Bay of Bengal, mean sea level pressure, meteorological forcing, water-level, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Anwesha Pathak

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With the increasing number of satellites and space debris, space traffic management (STM) becomes crucial. AI can aid in STM by predicting and preventing potential collisions, optimizing satellite trajectories, and managing orbital slots. Governance frameworks need to address the integration of AI algorithms in STM to ensure safe and sustainable satellite activities. AI and governance play significant roles in the context of satellite activities in space. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, such as machine learning and computer vision, can be utilized to process vast amounts of data received from satellites. AI algorithms can analyse satellite imagery, detect patterns, and extract valuable information for applications like weather forecasting, urban planning, agriculture, disaster management, and environmental monitoring. AI can assist in automating and optimizing satellite operations. Autonomous decision-making systems can be developed using AI to handle routine tasks like orbit control, collision avoidance, and antenna pointing. These systems can improve efficiency, reduce human error, and enable real-time responsiveness in satellite operations. AI technologies can be leveraged to enhance the security of satellite systems. AI algorithms can analyze satellite telemetry data to detect anomalies, identify potential cyber threats, and mitigate vulnerabilities. Governance frameworks should encompass regulations and standards for securing satellite systems against cyberattacks and ensuring data privacy. AI can optimize resource allocation and utilization in satellite constellations. By analyzing user demands, traffic patterns, and satellite performance data, AI algorithms can dynamically adjust the deployment and routing of satellites to maximize coverage and minimize latency. Governance frameworks need to address fair and efficient resource allocation among satellite operators to avoid monopolistic practices. Satellite activities involve multiple countries and organizations. Governance frameworks should encourage international cooperation, information sharing, and standardization to address common challenges, ensure interoperability, and prevent conflicts. AI can facilitate cross-border collaborations by providing data analytics and decision support tools for shared satellite missions and data sharing initiatives. AI and governance are critical aspects of satellite activities in space. They enable efficient and secure operations, ensure responsible and ethical use of AI technologies, and promote international cooperation for the benefit of all stakeholders involved in the satellite industry.

Keywords: satellite, space debris, traffic, threats, cyber security.

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Ahmed Mantawy, James C. Anderson

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Numerous cases of earthquakes (main-shocks) that were followed by aftershocks have been recorded in California. In 1992 a pair of strong earthquakes occurred within three hours of each other in Southern California. The first shock occurred near the community of Landers and was assigned a magnitude of 7.3 then the second shock occurred near the city of Big Bear about 20 miles west of the initial shock and was assigned a magnitude of 6.2. In the same year, a series of three earthquakes occurred over two days in the Cape-Mendocino area of Northern California. The main-shock was assigned a magnitude of 7.0 while the second and the third shocks were both assigned a value of 6.6. This paper investigates the effect of a main-shock accompanied with aftershocks of significant intensity on reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings to indicate nonlinear behavior using PERFORM-3D software. A 6-story building in San Bruno and a 20-story building in North Hollywood were selected for the study as both of them have RC moment resisting frame systems. The buildings are also instrumented at multiple floor levels as a part of the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP). Both buildings have recorded responses during past events such as Loma-Prieta and Northridge earthquakes which were used in verifying the response parameters of the numerical models in PERFORM-3D. The verification of the numerical models shows good agreement between the calculated and the recorded response values. Then, different scenarios of a main-shock followed by a series of aftershocks from real cases in California were applied to the building models in order to investigate the structural behavior of the moment-resisting frame system. The behavior was evaluated in terms of the lateral floor displacements, the ductility demands, and the inelastic behavior at critical locations. The analysis results showed that permanent displacements may have happened due to the plastic deformation during the main-shock that can lead to higher displacements during after-shocks. Also, the inelastic response at plastic hinges during the main-shock can change the hysteretic behavior during the aftershocks. Higher ductility demands can also occur when buildings are subjected to trains of ground motions compared to the case of individual ground motions. A general conclusion is that the occurrence of aftershocks following an earthquake can lead to increased damage within the elements of an RC frame buildings. Current code provisions for seismic design do not consider the probability of significant aftershocks when designing a new building in zones of high seismic activity.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, existing buildings, aftershocks, damage accumulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Aminul Haque, Quazi Zahangir Hossain, Dilshad Sharmin Chowdhury

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The human migration is getting growing concern around the world, and recurrent disasters and climate change impact have great influence on migration. Bangladesh is one of the disaster prone countries that/and has greater susceptibility to stress migration by recurrent disasters and climate change. The study was conducted to investigate the factors that have a strong influence on current migration and changing pattern of life and livelihood means of the southwest coastal part of Bangladesh. Moreover, the study also revealed a strong relationship between disasters and migration and appropriate policy concern. To explore this relation, both qualitative and quantitative methods were applied to a questionnaire survey at household level and simple random sampling technique used in the sampling process along with different secondary data sources for understanding policy concern and practices. The study explores the most influential driver of migration and its relationship with social, economic and environmental drivers. The study denotes that, the environmental driver has a greater effect on the intention of permanent migration (t=1.481, p-value=0.000) at the 1 percent significance level. The significant number of respondents denotes that abrupt pattern of cyclone, flood, salinity intrusion and rainfall are the most significant environmental driver to make a decision on permanent migration. The study also found that the temporary migration pattern has 2-fold increased compared to last ten (10) years. It also appears from the study that environmental factors have a great implication on the changing pattern of the occupation of the study area and it has reported that about 76% of the respondent now in the changing modality of livelihood compare to their traditional practices. The study bares that the migration has foremost impact on children and women by increasing hardship and creating critical social security. The exposure-route of permanent migration is not smooth indeed, these migrations creating urban and conflict in Chittagong hill tracks of Bangladesh. The study denotes that there is not any safeguard of the stress migrant on existing policy and not have any measures for safe migration and resettlement rather considering the emergency response and shelter. The majority of (98%) people believes that migration is not to be the adoption strategies, but contrary to this young group of respondent believes that safe migration could be the adaptation strategy which could bring a positive result compare to the other resilience strategies. On the other hand, the significant number of respondents uttered that appropriate policy measure could be an adaptation strategy for being the formation of a resilient community and reduce the migration by meaningful livelihood options with appropriate protection measure.

Keywords: environmental driver, livelihood, migration, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Remy Mpulumba Badiambile, Paul Musa Obadia, Malick Useni Mutayo, Jeef Numbi Mukanya, Patient Nkulu Banza, Tony Kayembe Kitenge, Erik Smolders, Jean-François Picron, Vincent Haufroid, Célestin Banza Lubaba Nkulu, Benoit Nemery

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Background: In July 2021, the Tshikapa river became heavily polluted by mining wastes from a diamond mine in neighboring Angola, leading to massive killing of fish, as well as disease and even deaths among residents living along the Tshikapa and Kasai rivers, a major contributory of the Congo river. The exact nature of the pollutants was unknown. Methods: In a cross-sectional study conducted in the city of Tshikapa in August 2021, we enrolled by opportunistic sampling 65 residents (11 children < 16y) living alongside the polluted rivers and 65 control residents (5 children) living alongside a non-affected portion of the Kasai river (upstream from the Tshikapa-Kasai confluence). We administered a questionnaire and obtained spot urine samples for measurements of thiocyanate (a metabolite of cyanide) and 26 trace metals (by ICP-MS). Metals (and pH) were also measured in samples of river water. Results: Participants from both groups consumed river water. In the area affected by the pollution, most participants had eaten dead fish. Prevalences of reported health symptoms were higher in the exposed group than among controls: skin rashes (52% vs 0%), diarrhea (40% vs 8%), abdominal pain (8% vs 3%), nausea (3% vs 0%). In polluted water, concentrations [median (range)] were only higher for nickel [(2.2(1.4–3.5)µg/L] and uranium [78(71–91)ng/L] than in non-polluted water [0.8(0.6–1.9)µg/L; 9(7–19)ng/L]. In urine, concentrations [µg/g creatinine, median(IQR)] were significantly higher in the exposed group than in controls for lithium [19.5(12.4–27.3) vs 6.9(5.9–12.1)], thallium [0.41(0.31–0.57) vs 0.19(0.16–0.39)], and uranium [0.026(0.013–0.037)] vs 0.012(0.006–0.024)]. Other elements did not differ between the groups, but levels were higher than reference values for several metals (including manganese, cobalt, nickel, and lead). Urinary thiocyanate concentrations did not differ. Conclusion: This study, after an ecological disaster in the DRC, has documented contamination of river water by nickel and uranium and high urinary levels of some trace metals among affected riverine populations. However, the exact cause of the massive fish kill and disease among residents remains elusive. The capacity to rapidly investigate toxic pollution events must be increased in the area.

Keywords: metal contaminants, river water and human urine, pollution by mining wastes, DR Congo

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Mahtab Abdollahi Sarvi, Siamak Epackachi, Ali Imanpour

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Reinforced concrete shear walls are commonly used as the lateral load-resisting system of mid- to high-rise office or residential buildings around the world. Design of such systems is often governed by wind rather than seismic effects, in particular in low-to-moderate seismic regions. The current design philosophy as per the majority of building codes under wind loads require elastic response of lateral load-resisting systems including reinforced concrete shear walls when subjected to the rare design wind load, resulting in significantly large wall sections needed to meet strength requirements and drift limits. The latter can highly influence the design in upper stories due to stringent drift limits specified by building codes, leading to substantial added costs to the construction of the wall. However, such walls may offer limited to moderate over-strength and ductility due to their large reserve capacity provided that they are designed and detailed to appropriately develop such over-strength and ductility under extreme wind loads. This would significantly contribute to reducing construction time and costs, while maintaining structural integrity under gravity and frequently-occurring and less frequent wind events. This paper aims to investigate the over-strength and ductility capacity of several imaginary office buildings located in Edmonton, Canada with a glance at earthquake design philosophy. Selected models are 10- to 25-story buildings with three types of reinforced concrete shear wall configurations including rectangular, barbell, and flanged. The buildings are designed according to National Building Code of Canada. Then fiber-based numerical models of the walls are developed in Perform 3D and by conducting nonlinear static (pushover) analysis, lateral nonlinear behavior of the walls are evaluated. Ductility and over-strength of the structures are obtained based on the results of the pushover analyses. The results confirmed moderate nonlinear capacity of reinforced concrete shear walls under extreme wind loads. This is while lateral displacements of the walls pass the serviceability limit states defined in Pre standard for Performance-Based Wind Design (ASCE). The results indicate that we can benefit the limited nonlinear response observed in the reinforced concrete shear walls to economize the design of such systems under wind loads.

Keywords: concrete shear wall, high-rise buildings, nonlinear static analysis, response modification factor, wind load

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Muteb Alotaibi, Graham Clarke, Nick Malleson

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The Hajj religious festival at Mina in Saudi Arabia has always presented the opportunity for injuries or deaths. For example, in 1990, a stampede killed 1426 pilgrims, whilst in 1997, 343 people were killed and 1500 injured due to a fire fuelled by high winds sweeping through the tent city in Mina.Many more minor incidents have occurred since then. It is predicted that 5 million pilgrims will soon perform the ritual at Mina (which is, in effect, a temporary city built each year in the desert), which might lead in the future to severe congestion and accidents unless the research is conducted on actions that contribute positively to improving the management of the crowd and facilitating the flow of pilgrims safely and securely. To help prevent further disasters, it is important to first plan better, more accessible locations for emergency services across Mina to ensure a good service for pilgrims. In this paper, we first use a Location Allocation Model (LAM) within a network GIS to examine the optimal locations for key services in the temporary city of Mina. This has been undertaken in relation to the location and movement of the pilgrims during the six day religious festival. The results of various what-if scenarios have been compared against the current location of services. A major argument is that planners should be flexible and locate facilities at different locations throughout the day and night. The use of location-allocation models in this type of comparative static mode has rarely been operationalised in the literature. Second, we model pilgrim movements and behaviours along with the most crowded parts of the network. This has been modelled using an agent-based model. This model allows planners to understand the key bottlenecks in the network and at what usage levels the paths become critically congested. Thus the paper has important implications and recommendations for future disaster planning strategies. This will enable planners to see at what stage in the movements of pilgrims problems occur in terms of potential crushes and trampling incidents. The main application of this research was only customised for pedestrians as the concentration only for pedestrians who move to Jamarat via foot. Further, the network in the middle of Mina was only dedicated for pedestrians for safety, so no Buses, trains and private cars were allowed in this area to prevent the congestion within this network. Initially, this research focus on Mina city as ‘temporary city’ and also about service provision in temporary cities, which is not highlighted in literature so far. Further, it is the first study which use the dynamic demand to optimise the services in the case of day and night time. Moreover, it is the first study which link the location allocation model for optimising services with ABM to find out whether or not the service location is located in the proper location in which it’s not affecting on crowd movement in mainstream flow where some pilgrims need to have health services.

Keywords: ABM, crowd management, hajj, temporary city

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Guntur Bagus Pamungkas

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As part of a tropical country that is normally rich in forest land areas, Indonesia has always been in the world's spotlight due to its significantly increasing process of deforestation. In one hand, it is related to the mainstay for maintaining the sustainability of the earth's ecosystem functions. On the other hand, they also cover the various potential sources of the global economy. Therefore, it can always be the target of different scale of investors to excessively exploit them. No wonder the emergence of disasters in various characteristics always comes up. In fact, the deforestation phenomenon does not only occur in various forest land areas in the main islands of Indonesia but also includes Java Island, the most densely populated areas in the world. This island only remains the forest land of about 9.8% of the total forest land in Indonesia due to its long history of it, especially in Central Java Province, the most densely populated area in Java. Again, not surprisingly, this province belongs to the area with the highest frequency of disasters because of it, landslides in particular. One of the areas that often experience it is Banjarnegara District, especially in mountainous areas that lies in the range from 1000 to 3000 meters above sea level, where the remains of land forest area can easyly still be found. Even among them still leaves less untouchable tropical rain forest whose area also covers part of a neighboring district, Pekalongan, which is considered to be the rest of the world's little paradise on Earth. The district's landscape is indeed beautiful, especially in the Dieng area, a major tourist destination in Central Java Province after Borobudur Temple. However, annually hazardous always threatens this district due to this landslide disaster. Even, there was a tragic event that was buried with its inhabitants a few decades ago. This research aims to find part of the concept of effective forest management through monitoring the presence of remaining forest areas in this area. The research implemented monitoring of deforestation rates using the Stochastic Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (SCA-MC) method, which serves to provide a spatial simulation of land use and cover changes (LULCC). This geospatial process uses the Landsat-8 OLI image product with Thermal Infra-Red Sensors (TIRS) Band 10 in 2020 and Landsat 5 TM with TIRS Band 6 in 2010. Then it is also integrated with physical and social geography issues using the QGIS 2.18.11 application with the Mollusce Plugin, which serves to clarify and calculate the area of land use and cover, especially in forest areas—using the LULCC method, which calculates the rate of forest area reduction in 2010-2020 in Banjarnegara District. Since the dependence of this area on the use of forest land is quite high, concepts and preventive actions are needed, such as rehabilitation and reforestation of critical lands through providing proper monitoring and targeted forest management to restore its ecosystem in the future.

Keywords: deforestation, populous area, LULCC method, proper control and effective forest management

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

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For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Tapan Kumar Dhar

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How well are our city forms designed to adapt to climate change and its resulting uncertainty? What urban design tools can be used to measure and improve resilience to climate change, and how would they do so? In addressing these questions, this paper considers indeterminacy, a concept originated in the resilience literature, to measure the resilience of built environments. In the realm of urban design, ‘indeterminacy’ can be referred to as built-in design capabilities of an urban system to serve different purposes which are not necessarily predetermined. An urban system, particularly that with a higher degree of indeterminacy, can enable the system to be reorganized and changed to accommodate new or unknown functions while coping with uncertainty over time. Underlying principles of this concept have long been discussed in the urban design and planning literature, including open architecture, landscape urbanism, and flexible housing. This paper argues that the concept indeterminacy holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change incrementally and proactively. With regard to sustainable development, both planning and climate change literature highly recommend proactive adaptation as it involves less cost, efforts, and energy than last-minute emergency or reactive actions. Nevertheless, the concept still remains isolated from resilience and climate change adaptation discourses even though the discourses advocate the incremental transformation of a system to cope with climatic uncertainty. This paper considers indeterminacy, as an urban design tool, to measure and increase resilience (and adaptive capacity) of Long Bay’s coastal settlements in Negril, Jamaica. Negril is one of the popular tourism destinations in the Caribbean highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. This paper employs empirical information obtained from direct observation and informal interviews with local people. While testing the tool, this paper deploys an urban morphology study, which includes land use patterns and the physical characteristics of urban form, including street networks, block patterns, and building footprints. The results reveal that most resorts in Long Bay are designed for pre-determined purposes and offer a little potential to use differently if needed. Additionally, Negril’s street networks are found to be rigid and have limited accessibility to different points of interest. This rigidity can expose the entire infrastructure further to extreme climatic events and also impedes recovery actions after a disaster. However, Long Bay still has room for future resilient developments in other relatively less vulnerable areas. In adapting to climate change, indeterminacy can be reached through design that achieves a balance between the degree of vulnerability and the degree of indeterminacy: the more vulnerable a place is, the more indeterminacy is useful. This paper concludes with a set of urban design typologies to increase the resilience of coastal settlements.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, resilience, sea-level rise, urban form

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Anthony Nyamekeh-Armah Adjei, Toshiaki Aoki

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The unreliable and poor efficiency of electricity distribution leading to frequent power outages and high losses are the major challenge facing the power distribution sector in Ghana. Distribution system routes electricity from the power generating station at a higher voltage through the transmission grid and steps it down through the low voltage lines to end users. Approximately all electricity problems and disturbances that have increased the call for renewable and sustainable energy in recent years have their roots in the distribution system. Therefore, sustaining electricity distribution efficiency can potentially contribute to the reserve of natural energy resources use in power generation, reducing greenhouse gas emission (GHG), decreasing tariffs for consumers and effective human security. Human Security is a people-centered approach where individual human being is the principal object of concern, focuses on protecting the vital core of all human lives in ways for meeting basic needs that enhance the safety and protection of individuals and communities. The vulnerability is the diminished capacity of an individual or group to anticipate, resist and recover from the effect of natural, human-induced disaster. The research objectives are to explore the causes of frequent power outages to consumers, high losses in the distribution network and the effect of poor electricity distribution efficiency on the vulnerable (poor and ordinary) people that mostly depend on electricity for their daily activities or life to survive. The importance of the study is that in a developing country like Ghana where raising a capital for new infrastructure project is difficult, it would be beneficial to enhance the efficiency that will significantly minimize the high energy losses, reduce power outage, to ensure safe and reliable delivery of electric power to consumers to secure the security of people’s livelihood. The methodology used in this study is both interview and questionnaire survey to analyze the response from the respondents on causes of power outages and high losses facing the electricity company of Ghana (ECG) and its effect on the livelihood on the vulnerable people. Among the outcome of both administered questionnaire and the interview survey from the field were; poor maintenance of existing sub-stations, use of aging equipment, use of poor distribution infrastructure and poor metering and billing system. The main observation of this paper is that the poor network efficiency (high losses and power outages) affects the livelihood of the vulnerable people. Therefore, the paper recommends that policymakers should insist on all regulation guiding electricity distribution to improve system efficiency. In conclusion, there should be decentralization of off-grid solar PV technologies to provide a sustainable and cost-effective, which can increase daily productivity and improve the quality of life of the vulnerable people in the rural communities.

Keywords: electricity efficiency, high losses, human security, power outage

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Avi Shrivastava

Abstract:

In 2021, two heart-wrenching scenes, shown live on television screens across countries, painted a grim picture of refugees. One of them was of people clinging onto an airplane's wings in their desperate attempt to flee war-torn Afghanistan. They ultimately fell to their death. The other scene was the U.S. government authorities separating children from their parents or guardians to deter migrants/refugees from coming to the U.S. These events show the desperation refugees feel when they are trying to leave their homes in disaster zones. However, data paints a grave picture of the current refugee situation. It also indicates that a bleak future lies ahead for the refugees across the globe. Data and information are the two threads that intertwine to weave the shimmery fabric of modern society. Data and information are often used interchangeably, but they differ considerably. For example, information analysis reveals rationale, and logic, while data analysis, on the other hand, reveals a pattern. Moreover, patterns revealed by data can enable us to create the necessary tools to combat huge problems on our hands. Data analysis paints a clear picture so that the decision-making process becomes simple. Geopolitical and economic data can be used to predict future refugee hotspots. Accurately predicting the next refugee hotspots will allow governments and relief agencies to prepare better for future refugee crises. The refugee crisis does not have binary answers. Given the emotionally wrenching nature of the ground realities, experts often shy away from realistically stating things as they are. This hesitancy can cost lives. When decisions are based solely on data, emotions can be removed from the decision-making process. Data also presents irrefutable evidence and tells whether there is a solution or not. Moreover, it also responds to a nonbinary crisis with a binary answer. Because of all that, it becomes easier to tackle a problem. Data science and A.I. can predict future refugee crises. With the recent explosion of data due to the rise of social media platforms, data and insight into data has solved many social and political problems. Data science can also help solve many issues refugees face while staying in refugee camps or adopted countries. This paper looks into various ways data science can help solve refugee problems. A.I.-based chatbots can help refugees seek legal help to find asylum in the country they want to settle in. These chatbots can help them find a marketplace where they can find help from the people willing to help. Data science and technology can also help solve refugees' many problems, including food, shelter, employment, security, and assimilation. The refugee problem seems to be one of the most challenging for social and political reasons. Data science and machine learning can help prevent the refugee crisis and solve or alleviate some of the problems that refugees face in their journey to a better life. With the explosion of data in the last decade, data science has made it possible to solve many geopolitical and social issues.

Keywords: refugee crisis, artificial intelligence, data science, refugee camps, Afghanistan, Ukraine

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