Search results for: disaster tax credits

Authors: Falak Nawaz

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The Climate Change Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment carried out in the coastal regions of Thatta and Malir districts underscore the potential risks and challenges associated with climate change affecting water resources. This study was conducted by the author using participatory rural appraisal tools, with a greater focus on conducting focus group discussions, direct observations, key informant interviews, and other PRA tools. The assessment delves into the specific impacts of climate change along the coastal belt, concentrating on aspects such as rising sea levels, depletion of freshwater, alterations in precipitation patterns, fluctuations in water table levels, and the intrusion of saltwater into rivers. These factors have significant consequences for the availability and quality of water resources in coastal areas, manifesting in frequent migration and alterations in agriculture-based livelihood practices. Furthermore, the assessment assesses the adaptive capacity of communities and organizations in these coastal regions to effectively confront and alleviate the effects of climate change on water resources. It considers various measures, including infrastructure enhancements, water management practices, adjustments in agricultural approaches, and disaster preparedness, aiming to bolster adaptive capacity. The study's findings emphasize the necessity for prompt actions to address identified vulnerabilities and fortify the adaptive capacities of Sindh's coastal areas. This calls for comprehensive strategies and policies promoting sustainable water resource management, integrating climate change considerations, and providing essential resources and support to vulnerable communities.

Keywords: climate, climate change adaptation, disaster reselience, vulnerability, capacity, assessment

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Authors: Matthew J. B. Wilson

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Disaster Risk Reduction relies heavily on the effective cooperation of both humanitarian and development actors, particularly in the wake of a disaster, implementing lasting recovery measures that better protect communities from disasters to come. This can be seen to fit within a broader discussion around integrating humanitarian and development work stretching back to the 1980s. Over time, a number of key concepts have been put forward, including Linking Relief, Rehabilitation, and Development (LRRD), Early Recovery (ER), ‘Build Back Better’ (BBB), and the most recent ‘Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus’ or ‘Triple Nexus’ (HDPN) to define these goals and relationship. While this discussion has evolved greatly over time, from a continuum to a more integrative synergistic relationship, there remains a lack of consensus around how to describe it, and as such, the reality of effectively closing this gap has yet to be seen. The objective of this research was twofold. First, to map these four identified concepts (LRRD, ER, BBB & HDPN) used in the literature since 1995 to understand the overall trends in how this relationship is discussed. Second, map articles reference a combination of these concepts to understand their interrelationship. A scoping review was conducted for each concept identified. Results were gathered from Google Scholar by firstly inputting specific boolean search phrases for each concept as they related specifically to disasters each year since 1995 to identify the total number of articles discussing each concept over time. A second search was then done by pairing concepts together within a boolean search phrase and inputting the results into a matrix to understand how many articles contained references to more than one of the concepts. This latter search was limited to articles published after 2017 to account for the more recent emergence of HDPN. It was found that ER and particularly BBB are referred to much more widely than LRRD and HDPN. ER increased particularly in the mid-2000’s coinciding with the formation of the ER cluster, and BBB, whilst emerging gradually in the mid-2000s due to its usage in the wake of the Boxing Day Tsunami, increased significantly from about 2015 after its prominent inclusion in Sendai Framework. HDPN has only just started to increase in the last 4-5 years. In regards to the relationship between concepts, it was found the vast majority of all concepts identified were referred to in isolation from each other. The strongest relationship was between LRRD and HDPN (8% of articles referring to both), whilst ER-BBB and ER-HDPN both were about 3%, LRRD-ER 2%, and BBB-HDPN 1% and BBB-LRRD 1%. This research identified a fundamental issue around the lack of consensus and even awareness of different approaches referred to within academic literature relating to integrating humanitarian and development work. More research into synthesizing and learning from a range of approaches could work towards better closing this gap.

Keywords: build back better, disaster risk reduction, early recovery, linking relief rehabilitation and development, humanitarian development integration, humanitarian-development (peace) nexus, recovery, triple nexus

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Authors: Sima Ajami, Batool Akbari

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Background: Radio frequency identification (RFID) system has been successfully applied to the areas of manufacturing, supply chain, agriculture, transportation, healthcare, and services. The RFID is already used to track and trace the victims in a disaster situation. Data can be collected in real time and be immediately available to emergency personnel and saves time by the RFID. Objectives: The aim of this study was, first, to identify stakeholders and customers for rescuing earthquake victims, second, to list key internal and external factors to use RFID to track earthquake victims, finally, to assess SWOT for rescuers' viewpoint. Materials and Methods: This study was an applied and analytical study. The study population included scholars, experts, planners, policy makers and rescuers in the "red crescent society of Isfahan province", "disaster management Isfahan province", "maintenance and operation department of Isfahan", "fire and safety services organization of Isfahan municipality", and "medical emergencies and disaster management center of Isfahan". After that, researchers held a workshop to teach participants about RFID and its usages in tracking earthquake victims. In the meanwhile of the workshop, participants identified, listed, and weighed key internal factors (strengths and weaknesses; SW) and external factors (opportunities and threats; OT) to use RFID in tracking earthquake victims. Therefore, participants put weigh strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) and their weighted scales were calculated. Then, participants' opinions about this issue were assessed. Finally, according to the SWOT matrix, strategies to solve the weaknesses, problems, challenges, and threats through opportunities and strengths were proposed by participants. Results: The SWOT analysis showed that the total weighted score for internal and external factors were 3.91 (Internal Factor Evaluation) and 3.31 (External Factor Evaluation) respectively. Therefore, it was in a quadrant SO strategies cell in the SWOT analysis matrix and aggressive strategies were resulted. Organizations, scholars, experts, planners, policy makers and rescue workers should plan to use RFID technology in order to save more victims and manage their life. Conclusions: Researchers suppose to apply SO strategies and use a firm’s internal strength to take advantage of external opportunities. It is suggested, policy maker should plan to use the most developed technologies to save earthquake victims and deliver the easiest service to them. To do this, education, informing, and encouraging rescuers to use these technologies is essential. Originality/ Value: This study was a research paper that showed how RFID can be useful to track victims in earthquake.

Keywords: frequency identification system, strength, weakness, earthquake, victim

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Authors: Abdurrauf M. Gusbi, Mahmud H. Arhima, Abdurrahim A. Elouzi, Ebtisam A. Benomran, Salsabeela Elmezwghi, Aram Elhatan, Nafesa Elgusbi

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Mass poisonings with methanol are rare but occur regularly both in developed and in non-developing countries. As a result of the tragedy that happened in the city of Tripoli Libya in March during year 2013 a number of patients were admitted to Tripoli Medical Center and Tripoli Central Hospital suffering from poisoning following ingestion of methanol by mistake. Our aims have been formulated to collect Information about those cases as much as we can from the archiving departments from the two hospitals including the number of cases that had been admitted, recovered patients and died victims. This retrospective study was planned to find out the reasons which allow those patients to drink methanol in our Muslim community and also the role of pharmacist to prevent such a disaster that claimed the lives of many people. During this tragedy 291 ospitalized patients their ages between 16-32 years old were admitted to both hospitals, total number of died 189 (121 at Tripoli medical center) and (68 at Tripoli central hospital), demographic data also shows that most of them are male (97%) and (3% female), about 4% of the patients foreigners and 96% were Libyans. There were a lot of obstacles and poor facilities at the time of patient admission as recognized in many cases including lack of first line of treatment. The morbidity was high due to the lack of antidote and availability of dialysis machines at this two main hospitals in Tripoli also according to survey done to the medical staff and also a random number of medical students shows about 28% have no idea about the first aid procedure used for methanol poisoning cases and this due to the absence of continuing education for all medical staff through the establishment of training courses on first aid, rapid diagnosis of poisoning and follow the written procedures to dealing with such cases.

Keywords: ethanol, fomepizole, methanol, poisoning

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Authors: Bidzina Matsaberidze, Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze, Bezhan Ghvaberidze

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In the modern world emergency management decision support systems are actively used by state organizations, which are interested in extreme and abnormal processes and provide optimal and safe management of supply needed for the civil and military facilities in geographical areas, affected by disasters, earthquakes, fires and other accidents, weapons of mass destruction, terrorist attacks, etc. Obviously, these kinds of extreme events cause significant losses and damages to the infrastructure. In such cases, usage of intelligent support technologies is very important for quick and optimal location-transportation of emergency service in order to avoid new losses caused by these events. Timely servicing from emergency service centers to the affected disaster regions (response phase) is a key task of the emergency management system. Scientific research of this field takes the important place in decision-making problems. Our goal was to create an expert knowledge-based intelligent support system, which will serve as an assistant tool to provide optimal solutions for the above-mentioned problem. The inputs to the mathematical model of the system are objective data, as well as expert evaluations. The outputs of the system are solutions for Fuzzy Multi-Objective Emergency Location-Transportation Problem (FMOELTP) for disasters’ regions. The development and testing of the Intelligent Support System were done on the example of an experimental disaster region (for some geographical zone of Georgia) which was generated using a simulation modeling. Four objectives are considered in our model. The first objective is to minimize an expectation of total transportation duration of needed products. The second objective is to minimize the total selection unreliability index of opened humanitarian aid distribution centers (HADCs). The third objective minimizes the number of agents needed to operate the opened HADCs. The fourth objective minimizes the non-covered demand for all demand points. Possibility chance constraints and objective constraints were constructed based on objective-subjective data. The FMOELTP was constructed in a static and fuzzy environment since the decisions to be made are taken immediately after the disaster (during few hours) with the information available at that moment. It is assumed that the requests for products are estimated by homeland security organizations, or their experts, based upon their experience and their evaluation of the disaster’s seriousness. Estimated transportation times are considered to take into account routing access difficulty of the region and the infrastructure conditions. We propose an epsilon-constraint method for finding the exact solutions for the problem. It is proved that this approach generates the exact Pareto front of the multi-objective location-transportation problem addressed. Sometimes for large dimensions of the problem, the exact method requires long computing times. Thus, we propose an approximate method that imposes a number of stopping criteria on the exact method. For large dimensions of the FMOELTP the Estimation of Distribution Algorithm’s (EDA) approach is developed.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint method, estimation of distribution algorithm, fuzzy multi-objective combinatorial programming problem, fuzzy multi-objective emergency location/transportation problem

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Authors: Chenyi Ma

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Background: The second costliest hurricane in U.S. history, Sandy landed in southern New Jersey on October 29, 2012, and struck the entire state with high winds and torrential rains. The disaster killed more than 100 people, left more than 8.5 million households without power, and damaged or destroyed more than 200,000 homes across the state. Immediately after the disaster, public policy support was provided in nine coastal counties that constituted 98% of the major and severely damaged housing units in NJ overall. The programs include Individuals and Households Assistance Program, Small Business Loan Program, National Flood Insurance Program, and the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) Public Assistance Grant Program. In the most severely affected counties, additional funding was provided through Community Development Block Grant: Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Elevation, and Mitigation Program, and Homeowner Resettlement Program. How these policies individually and as a whole impacted housing recovery across communities with different socioeconomic and demographic profiles has not yet been studied, particularly in relation to damage levels. The concept of community social vulnerability has been widely used to explain many aspects of natural disasters. Nevertheless, how communities are vulnerable has been less fully examined. Community resilience has been conceptualized as a protective factor against negative impacts from disasters, however, how community resilience buffers the effects of vulnerability is not yet known. Because housing recovery is a dynamic social and economic process that varies according to context, this study examined the path from community vulnerability and resilience to housing recovery looking at both community characteristics and policy interventions. Sample/Methods: This retrospective longitudinal case study compared a literature-identified set of pre-disaster community characteristics, the effects of multiple public policy programs, and a set of time-variant community resilience indicators to changes in housing stock (operationally defined by percent of building permits to total occupied housing units/households) between 2010 and 2014, two years before and after Hurricane Sandy. The sample consisted of 51 municipalities in the nine counties in which between 4% and 58% of housing units suffered either major or severe damage. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the path from vulnerability to the housing recovery, via multiple public programs, separately and as a whole, and via the community resilience indicators. The spatial analytical tool ArcGIS 10.2 was used to show the spatial relations between housing recovery patterns and community vulnerability and resilience. Findings: Holding damage levels constant, communities with higher proportions of Hispanic households had significantly lower levels of housing recovery while communities with households with an adult >age 65 had significantly higher levels of the housing recovery. The contrast was partly due to the different levels of total public support the two types of the community received. Further, while the public policy programs individually mediated the negative associations between African American and female-headed households and housing recovery, communities with larger proportions of African American, female-headed and Hispanic households were “vulnerable” to lower levels of housing recovery because they lacked sufficient public program support. Even so, higher employment rates and incomes buffered vulnerability to lower housing recovery. Because housing is the "wobbly pillar" of the welfare state, the housing needs of these particular groups should be more fully addressed by disaster policy.

Keywords: community social vulnerability, community resilience, hurricane, public policy

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Authors: Chin-Hsien Yeh, Shao-Wen Chen, Wen-Shu Huang, Chun-Fu Huang, Jong-Rong Wang, Jung-Hua Yang, Yuh-Ming Ferng, Chunkuan Shih

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In this research, a Fukushima-like conditions is simulated with TRACE and RELAP5. Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) occurred the disaster which caused by the earthquake and tsunami. This disaster caused extended loss of all AC power (ELAP). Hence, loss of ultimate heat sink (LUHS) happened finally. In order to handle Fukushima-like conditions, Taiwan Atomic Energy Council (AEC) commanded that Taiwan Power Company should propose strategies to ensure the nuclear power plant safety. One of the diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) is a different water injection strategy. It can execute core injection at 20 Kg/cm2 without depressurization. In this study, TRACE and RELAP5 were used to simulate Maanshan nuclear power plant, which is a three loops PWR in Taiwan, under Fukushima-like conditions and make sure the success criteria of FLEX. Reducing core cooling ability is due to failure of emergency core cooling system (ECCS) in extended loss of all AC power situation. The core water level continues to decline because of the seal leakage, and then FLEX is used to save the core water level and make fuel rods covered by water. The result shows that this mitigation strategy can cool the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) as soon as possible under Fukushima-like conditions, and keep the core water level higher than Top of Active Fuel (TAF). The FLEX can ensure the peak cladding temperature (PCT) below than the criteria 1088.7 K. Finally, the FLEX can provide protection for nuclear power plant and make plant safety.

Keywords: TRACE, RELAP5/MOD3.3, ELAP, FLEX

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Authors: Oshienemen Albert

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Human’s activities could be pointed as the root cause of almost all environmental damages/ disasters as we contribute to the activities that are currently damaging the ozone layers (global warming), unusual environmental changes and extreme weather conditions (climate change) in recent times. Nigeria just as every other disaster-prone nation is faced with different types of disasters and environmental calamities, starting from terrorist displacement disasters, flood, drought and oil spill hazards. Oil spillage as an environmental disaster has great consequences not just on the environment but on human health, economy and the entire populace that might be involved, which deem necessary to look into the root causes of the incidents and how it can be curtailed. The different incidents of oil spillages and other oil production consequent on the environment is alarming in the Nigerian context and cannot be overemphasized without a critical investigation and synthesis. This paper investigates the root causes of environmental pollution induced by oil spill hazards from petroleum activities within Niger Delta communities of effects and detailed the potential solutions to reduce the causal factors and reoccurrence of the incidents. This study adopts a desk-based approach, interviews with key members of communities which consist of chiefs, youth leaders, and key women within the high environmental damaged communities. Also, Interviews were conducted with environmental expertise representatives from the oil and gas sectors and representatives from oil spill-related agency. Data were analyzed using thematic techniques. The study shows different influencing factors of sabotage and vandalism of oil facilities as such; marginalization, deprivation of resources utility and resource derivation principles were identified as major contributors to vandalism and sabotage act. The study proposed potential strategies to curtail the root causes of sabotage and vandalism as the major causes of environmental devastations in Nigeria.

Keywords: environment, oil spill hazards, Niger delta, Nigeria

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Authors: Sylvia Mac

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This ethnographic case study examines disaster capitalism, neoliberal market-based school reforms, and disability through the lens of Disability Studies in Education. More specifically, it explores neoliberalism and special education at a small, urban charter school in a large city in California and the (re)production of social inequality. The study uses Sociology of Special Education to examine the ways in which special education is used to sort and stratify disabled students. At a time when rhetoric surrounding public schools is framed in catastrophic and dismal language in order to justify the privatization of public education, small urban charter schools must be examined to learn if they are living up to their promise or acting as another way to maintain economic and racial segregation. The study concludes that neoliberal contexts threaten successful inclusive education and normalize poor, disabled students’ continued low achievement and poor post-secondary outcomes. This ethnographic case study took place at a small urban charter school in a large city in California. Participants included three special education students, the special education teacher, the special education assistant, a regular education teacher, and the two founders and charter writers. The school claimed to have a push-in model of special education where all special education students were fully included in the general education classroom. Although presented as fully inclusive, some special education students also attended a pull-out class called Study Skills. The study found that inclusion and neoliberalism are differing ideologies that cannot co-exist. Successful inclusive environments cannot thrive while under the influences of neoliberal education policies such as efficiency and cost-cutting. Additionally, the push for students to join the global knowledge economy means that more and more low attainers are further marginalized and kept in poverty. At this school, neoliberal ideology eclipsed the promise of inclusive education for special education students. This case study has shown the need for inclusive education to be interrogated through lenses that consider macro factors, such as neoliberal ideology in public education, as well as the emerging global knowledge economy and increasing income inequality. Barriers to inclusion inside the school, such as teachers’ attitudes, teacher preparedness, and school infrastructure paint only part of the picture. Inclusive education is also threatened by neoliberal ideology that shifts the responsibility from the state to the individual. This ideology is dangerous because it reifies the stereotypes of disabled students as lazy, needs drains on already dwindling budgets. If these stereotypes persist, inclusive education will have a difficult time succeeding. In order to more fully examine the ways in which inclusive education can become truly emancipatory, we need more analysis on the relationship between neoliberalism, disability, and special education.

Keywords: case study, disaster capitalism, inclusive education, neoliberalism

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Seddighi, Avar Almukhtar

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The occurrence of natural disasters, such as floods and earthquakes, can cause significant damage to heritage sites and surrounding areas. In Iran, the city of Bam was devastated by an earthquake in 2003, which had a major impact on the rivers and watercourses around the city. This study aims to investigate the environmental design techniques and sustainable hazard mitigation strategies that can be employed to preserve heritage sites in the face of natural disasters, using the Bam experience as a case study. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining both qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods. The study begins with a comprehensive literature review of recent publications on environmental design techniques and sustainable hazard mitigation strategies in heritage conservation. This is followed by a field study of the rivers and watercourses around Bam, including the Adoori River (Talangoo) and other watercourses, to assess the current conditions and identify potential hazards. The data collected from the field study is analysed using statistical methods and GIS mapping techniques. The findings of this study reveal the importance of sustainable hazard mitigation strategies and environmental design techniques in preserving heritage sites during natural disasters. The study suggests that these techniques can be used to prevent the outbreak of another natural disaster in Bam and the surrounding areas. Specifically, the study recommends the establishment of a comprehensive early warning system, the creation of flood-resistant landscapes, and the use of eco-friendly building materials in the reconstruction of heritage sites. These findings contribute to the current knowledge of sustainable hazard mitigation and environmental design in heritage conservation.

Keywords: natural disasters, heritage conservation, sustainable hazard mitigation, environmental design, landscape architecture, flood management, disaster resilience

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Authors: Cheong Hyeon Oh, Dongho Nam, Byungsik Kim

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Due to the recent climate change, flood damage caused by local floods and typhoons has frequently occurred, the incidence rate and intensity of wildfires are greatly increased due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Wildfires cause primary damage, such as loss of forest resources, as well as secondary disasters, such as landslides, floods, and debris flow. In many countries around the world, damage and economic losses from secondary damage are occurring as well as the direct effects of forest fires. Therefore, in this study, the Rainfall-Runoff model(S-RAT) was used for the wildfire affected areas in Gangneung and Goseong, which occurred on April 2019, when the stability of vegetation and soil were destroyed by wildfires. Rainfall data from Typhoon Rusa were used in the S-RAT model, and flood discharge was calculated according to changes in land cover before and after wildfire damage. The results of the calculation showed that flood discharge increased significantly due to changes in land cover, as the increase in flood discharge increases the possibility of the occurrence of the debris flow and the extent of the damage, the debris flow height and range were calculated before and after forest fire using RAMMS. The analysis results showed that the height and extent of damage increased after wildfire, but the result value was underestimated due to the characteristics that using DEM and maximum flood discharge of the RAMMS model. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS). This paper work (or document) was financially supported by Ministry of the Interior and Safety as 'Human resoure development Project in Disaster management'.

Keywords: wildfire, debris flow, land cover, rainfall-runoff meodel S-RAT, RAMMS, height

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Authors: M. Shahab Uddin, Pennung Warnitchai

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Currently more than half of the world’s populations are living in cities, and the number and sizes of cities are growing faster than ever. Cities rely on the effective functioning of complex and interdependent critical infrastructures networks to provide public services, enhance the quality of life, and save the community from hazards and disasters. In contrast, complex connectivity and interdependency among the urban critical infrastructures bring management challenges and make the urban system prone to the domino effect. Unplanned rapid growth, increased connectivity, and interdependency among the infrastructures, resource scarcity, and many other socio-political factors are affecting the typical state of an urban system and making it susceptible to numerous sorts of diversion. In addition to internal vulnerabilities, urban systems are consistently facing external threats from natural and manmade hazards. Cities are not just complex, interdependent system, but also makeup hubs of the economy, politics, culture, education, etc. For survival and sustainability, complex urban systems in the current world need to manage their vulnerabilities and hazardous incidents more wisely and more interactively. Coordinated management in such systems makes for huge potential when it comes to absorbing negative effects in case some of its components were to function improperly. On the other hand, ineffective management during a similar situation of overall disorder from hazards devastation may make the system more fragile and push the system to an ultimate collapse. Following the quantum, the current research hypothesizes that a hazardous event starts its journey as an emergency, and the system’s internal vulnerability and response capacity determine its destination. Connectivity and interdependency among the urban critical infrastructures during this stage may transform its vulnerabilities into dynamic damaging force. An emergency may turn into a disaster in the absence of effective management; similarly, mismanagement or lack of management may lead the situation towards a catastrophe. Situation awareness and factual decision-making is the key to win a battle. The current research proposed a contextual decision support system for an urban critical infrastructure system while integrating three different models: 1) Damage cascade model which demonstrates damage propagation among the infrastructures through their connectivity and interdependency, 2) Restoration model, a dynamic restoration process of individual infrastructure, which is based on facility damage state and overall disruptions in surrounding support environment, and 3) Optimization model that ensures optimized utilization and distribution of available resources in and among the facilities. All three models are tightly connected, mutually interdependent, and together can assess the situation and forecast the dynamic outputs of every input. Moreover, this integrated model will hold disaster managers and decision makers responsible when it comes to checking all the alternative decision before any implementation, and support to produce maximum possible outputs from the available limited inputs. This proposed model will not only support to reduce the extent of damage cascade but will ensure priority restoration and optimize resource utilization through adaptive and collaborative management. Complex systems predictably fail but in unpredictable ways. System understanding, situation awareness, and factual decisions may significantly help urban system to survive and sustain.

Keywords: disaster prevention, decision support system, emergency response, urban critical infrastructure system

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Authors: Sachini Wickramanayaka

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The occurrence of natural disasters has increased in an alarming rate in recent times due to escalating effects of climate change. One such natural disaster that has continued to grow in frequency and intensity is ‘flooding’, adversely affecting communities around the globe. This is an exploration on how architecture can intervene and facilitate in preserving communities in the face of disaster, specifically in battling floods. ‘Resilience’ is one of the concepts that have been brought forward to be instilled in vulnerable communities to lower the impact from such disasters as a preventative and coping mechanism. While there are number of ways to achieve resilience in the built environment, this paper aims to create a synthesis between resilience and ‘urban acupuncture’. It will consider strengthening communities from within, by layering a network of relatively small-scale, fast phased interventions on pre-existing conventional flood preventative large-scale engineering infrastructure.By investigating ‘The Woodlands’, a planned neighborhood as a case study, this paper will argue that large-scale water management solutions while extremely important will not suffice as a single solution particularly during a time of frequent and extreme weather events. The different projects will try to synthesize non-architectural aspects such as neighborhood aspirations, requirements, potential and awareness into a network of architectural forms that would collectively increase neighborhood resiliency to floods. A mapping study of the selected study area will identify the problematic areas that flood in the neighborhood while the empirical data from previously implemented case studies will assess the success of each solution.If successful the different solutions for each of the identified problem areas will exhibithow flooding and water management can be integrated as part and parcel of daily life.

Keywords: acupuncture, architecture, resiliency, micro-interventions, neighborhood

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Authors: Karim Ahmed

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The purpose of this study was to investigate how factoring the impact of natural disasters beyond flooding would affect managed retreat policy eligibility in the United States. For the study design, a correlation analysis method compared weighted measures of flooding and other natural disasters (e.g., wildfires, tornadoes, heatwaves, etc.) to CBSA Populated areas, the prevalence of cropland, and relative poverty on a county level. The study found that the vast majority of CBSAs eligible for managed retreat programs under a policy inclusive of non-flooding events would have already been covered by flood-only managed retreat policies. However, it is noteworthy that a majority of those counties that are not covered by a flood-only managed retreat policy have high rates of poverty and are either heavily populated and/or agriculturally active. The correlation is particularly strong between counties that are subject to multiple natural hazards and those that have both high rates of relative poverty and cropland prevalence. There is currently no managed retreat policy for agricultural land in the United States despite the environmental implications and food supply chain vulnerabilities related to at-risk cropland. The findings of this study suggest both that such a policy should be created and, when it is, that special attention should be paid to non-flood natural disasters affecting agricultural areas. These findings also reveal that, while current flood-based policies in the United States serve many areas that do need access to managed retreat funding and implementation, other vulnerable areas are overlooked by this approach. These areas are often deeply impoverished and are therefore particularly vulnerable to natural disaster; if and when those disasters do occur, these areas are often less financially prepared to recover or retreat from the disaster’s advance and, due to the limitations of the current policies discussed above, are less able to take the precautionary measures necessary to mitigate their risk.

Keywords: flood, hazard, land use, managed retreat, wildfire

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Authors: Tan Swee Liang

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This paper studies the two-way relationship between fintech credit and banking efficiency using the Generalized panel Method of Moment (GMM) estimation in structural equation modeling (SEM). Banking system efficiency, defined as its ability to produce the existing level of outputs with minimal inputs, is measured using input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA), where the whole banking system of an economy is treated as a single DMU. Banks are considered an intermediary between depositors and borrowers, utilizing inputs (deposits and overhead costs) to provide outputs (increase credits to the private sector and its earnings). Analysis of the interrelationship between fintech credit and bank efficiency is conducted to determine the impact in different country groupings (ASEAN, Asia and OECD), in particular the banking system response to fintech credit platforms. Our preliminary results show that banks do respond to the greater pressure caused by fintech platforms to enhance their efficiency, but differently across the different groups. The author’s earlier research on ASEAN-5 high bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) as the determinant of economic growth suggests that expenses may not have been channeled efficiently to income-generating activities. One practical implication of the findings is that policymakers should enable alternative financing, such as fintech credit, as a warning or encouragement for banks to improve their efficiency.

Keywords: fintech lending, banking efficiency, data envelopment analysis, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Ran Goldblatt, Nicholas Jones, Jennifer Mannix, Brad Bottoms

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Accurate, complete, and up-to-date geospatial information is the foundation of successful disaster management. When the 2010 Haiti Earthquake struck, accurate and timely information on the distribution of critical infrastructure was essential for the disaster response community for effective search and rescue operations. Existing geospatial datasets such as Google Maps did not have comprehensive coverage of these features. In the days following the earthquake, many organizations released high-resolution satellite imagery, catalyzing a worldwide effort to map Haiti and support the recovery operations. Of these organizations, OpenStreetMap (OSM), a collaborative project to create a free editable map of the world, used the imagery to support volunteers to digitize roads, buildings, and other features, creating the most detailed map of Haiti in existence in just a few weeks. However, large portions of the island are still not fully covered by OSM. There is an increasing need for a tool to automatically identify which areas in Haiti, as well as in other countries vulnerable to disasters, that are not fully mapped. The objective of this project is to leverage different types of remote sensing measurements, together with machine learning approaches, in order to identify geographical areas where OSM coverage of building footprints is incomplete. Several remote sensing measures and derived products were assessed as potential predictors of OSM building footprints coverage, including: intensity of light emitted at night (based on VIIRS measurements), spectral indices derived from Sentinel-2 satellite (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), urban index (UI)), surface texture (based on Sentinel-1 SAR measurements)), elevation and slope. Additional remote sensing derived products, such as Hansen Global Forest Change, DLR`s Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and World Settlement Footprint (WSF), were also evaluated as predictors, as well as OSM street and road network (including junctions). Using a supervised classification with a random forest classifier resulted in the prediction of 89% of the variation of OSM building footprint area in a given cell. These predictions allowed for the identification of cells that are predicted to be covered but are actually not mapped yet. With these results, this methodology could be adapted to any location to assist with preparing for future disastrous events and assure that essential geospatial information is available to support the response and recovery efforts during and following major disasters.

Keywords: disaster management, Haiti, machine learning, OpenStreetMap, remote sensing

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Authors: Rifaldy, Misbahudin, Khalid Rizky, Ricky Aryanto, M. Alfiyan Bagus, Fahri Septianto, Firman Najib Wibisana, Excobar Arman

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Indonesia is a country that has a high level of disaster because it is on the ring of fire, and there are several regions with three major plates meeting in the world. So that disaster analysis must always be done to see the potential disasters that might always occur, especially in this research are landslides and liquefaction. This research was conducted to analyze areas that are vulnerable to landslides and liquefaction hazards and their relationship with the assessment of the issue of moving the new capital of the Republic of Indonesia to the island of Kalimantan with a total area of 612,267.22 km². The method in this analysis uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process and consistency ratio testing as a complex and unstructured problem-solving process into several parameters by providing values. The parameters used in this analysis are the slope, land cover, lithology distribution, wetness index, earthquake data, peak ground acceleration. Weighted overlay was carried out from all these parameters using the percentage value obtained from the Analytical Hierarchy Process and confirmed its accuracy with a consistency ratio so that a percentage of the area obtained with different vulnerability classification values was obtained. Based on the analysis results obtained vulnerability classification from very high to low vulnerability. There are (0.15%) 918.40083 km² of highly vulnerable, medium (20.75%) 127,045,44815 km², low (56.54%) 346,175.886188 km², very low (22.56%) 138,127.484832 km². This research is expected to be able to map landslides and liquefaction disasters on the island of Kalimantan and provide consideration of the suitability of regional development of the new capital of the Republic of Indonesia. Also, this research is expected to provide input or can be applied to all regions that are analyzing the vulnerability of landslides and liquefaction or the suitability of the development of certain regions.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Borneo Island, landslide and liquefaction, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Sudha Arlikatti, Laura Siebeneck, Simon A. Andrew

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The objective of this research is to measure organizational resiliency through five attributes namely, rapidity, redundancy, resourcefulness, and robustness and to provide recommendations for resiliency building in flood risk communities. The research was conducted in Thailand following the severe floods of 2011 triggered by Tropical Storm Nock-ten. The floods lasted over eight months starting in June 2011 affecting 65 of the country’s 76 provinces and over 12 million people. Funding from a US National Science Foundation grant was used to collect ephemeral data in rural (Ayutthaya), suburban (Pathum Thani), and urban (Bangkok) provinces of Thailand. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted in Thai with 44 contacts from public, private, and non-profit organizations including universities, schools, automobile companies, vendors, tourist agencies, monks from temples, faith based organizations, and government agencies. Multiple triangulations were used to analyze the data by identifying selective themes from the qualitative data, validated with quantitative data and news media reports. This helped to obtain a more comprehensive view of how organizations in different geographic settings varied in their understanding of what enhanced or hindered their resilience and consequently their speed and capacities to respond. The findings suggest that the urban province of Bangkok scored highest in resourcefulness, rapidity of response, robustness, and ability to rebound. This is not surprising considering that it is the country’s capital and the seat of government, economic, military and tourism sectors. However, contrary to expectations all 44 respondents noted that the rural province of Ayutthaya was the fastest to recover amongst the three. Its organizations scored high on redundancy and rapidity of response due to the strength of social networks, a flood disaster sub-culture due to annual flooding, and the help provided by monks from and faith based organizations. Organizations in the suburban community of Pathum Thani scored lowest on rapidity of response and resourcefulness due to limited and ambiguous warnings, lack of prior flood experience and controversies that government flood protection works like sandbagging favored the capital city of Bangkok over them. Such a micro-level examination of organizational resilience in rural, suburban and urban areas in a country through mixed methods studies has its merits in getting a nuanced understanding of the importance of disaster subcultures and religious norms for resilience. This can help refocus attention on the strengths of social networks and social capital, for flood mitigation.

Keywords: disaster subculture, flood response, organizational resilience, Thailand floods, religious beliefs and response, social capital and disasters

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Authors: Jiří Barta, Tomáš Ludík, Jiří Urbánek

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The topics of disaster and emergency management are highly debated among experts. Fast communication will help to deal with emergencies. Problem is with the network connection and data exchange. The paper suggests a solution, which allows possibilities and perspectives of new flexible communication platform to the protection of communication systems for crisis management. This platform is used for everyday communication and communication in crisis situations too.

Keywords: crisis management, information systems, interoperability, crisis communication, security environment, communication platform

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Bafa, C. Fassoulas, M. Panoutsopoulou

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The role of volunteers in disaster management is of decisive importance and the need of their involvement is well recognized, both for prevention measures and for disaster management. During major catastrophes, whereas professional personnel are outsourced, the role of volunteers is crucial. In Greece experience has shown that various groups operating in the civil protection mechanism like local administration staff or volunteers, in many cases do not have the necessary knowledge and information on best practices to act against natural disasters. One of the major problems is the lack of volunteers’ education and training. In the above given framework, this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of civil protection volunteers in Greece. Furthermore, the implementation of earthquake protection measures at individual, family and working level, are explored. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding pre-earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans in the workplace. The questionnaires were administered to citizens from different regions of the country and who attend the civil protection training program: “Protect Myself and Others”. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self-protective actions; b) existence of emergency planning at home; c) existence of emergency planning at workplace (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills); and, d) respondents` perception about their level of earthquake preparedness. The results revealed a serious lack of knowledge and preparedness among respondents. Taking into consideration the aforementioned gap and in order to raise awareness and improve preparedness and effective response of volunteers acting in civil protection, the EVANDE project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC). The aim of that project is to educate and train civil protection volunteers on the most serious natural disasters, such as forest fires, floods, and earthquakes, and thus, increase their performance.

Keywords: civil protection, earthquake, preparedness, volunteers

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Loannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece's deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event too small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs' resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioral responses and experiences, can feed into a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study

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Authors: Gabriele Palumbo

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This research empirically examines some of the reasons behind the fact that recently the number of people giving up their American citizenship for tax purposes has recently increased drastically. The United States Jurisdiction represents a unicum in the practice of taxing worldwide income not only to residents of the United States but also to U.S. citizens living abroad. The worldwide income taxation also affects people defined as “Accidental Americans” who are unaware that they are U.S. citizens. Those people are considered Americans even though they have not been to the United States. American residents abroad can rely on United States income tax treaties and some national law provisions, such as the exclusion of foreign income and foreign tax credits, which are designed specifically to avoid double taxation. However, this mechanism may prove unsatisfactory for people who have not been linked anymore or individuals who have never had relations with the United States. U.S. citizens who are determined to cut all of the ties between themselves and the United States, especially those that involve tax implications, can renounce their U.S. citizenship with the expatriation procedure. The expatriation process represents the extrema ratio and implicates several steps which must be followed carefully. This paper shows the complexity of the procedure that a U.S. citizen who is resident in a foreign country would have to follow to relinquish U.S. citizenship for tax purposes. The mechanism is intended to discourage people from renounce. Going beyond the question of whether U.S. tax regulation is fair or not, this principle nowadays characterizes a popular topic that many scholars and lawyers are discussing. The outcome provides interesting implications that could induce the Congress to rethink the definition of citizenship for both fiscal and nationality law purposes. Indeed, even if a sort of checks and balances has the task of mitigating the renunciation of U.S. citizenship, more and more U.S. citizens desire to get rid of their citizenship.

Keywords: double taxation, expatriation tax, international taxation, relinquishment of United States citizenship

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Authors: Gurjinder Singh, Jasmeen Kaur, Mukul Dhiman

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This paper mainly describes the significance of 3D printing in the supply chain management in a scenario when there is disruption in global supply chain. Furthermore, the development and implementation of supply chain strategies in context of 3D printing technology is framed to make supply chain of an organization resilient to disruption caused by natural disasters.

Keywords: 3D printing, global supply chain, supply chain management, supply chain strategies

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Authors: A. Kourou, M. Panoutsopoulou

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Nowadays, disaster risk reduction requires innovative ways of working collaboratively, monitoring tools, management methods, risk communication, and knowledge, as key factors for decision-making actors. Experience has shown that the assessment of seismic risk and its effective management is still an important challenge. In Greece, Ionian Islands region is characterized as the most seismic area of the country and one of the most active worldwide. It is well known that in case of a disastrous earthquake the local authorities need to assess the situation in the affected area and coordinate the disaster response. In particular, the main outcomes of 'Telemachus' project are the development of an innovative operational system that hosts the needed data of seismic risk management in the Ionian Islands and the implementation of educational actions for the involved target groups. This project is funded in the Priority Axis 'Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development' of Operational Plan 'Ionian Islands 2014-2020'. EPPO is one of the partners of the project and it is responsible, among others, for the development of proper training material. This paper presents the training material of 'Telemachus' and its usage as a helpful, managerial tool in case of earthquake emergency. This material is addressed to different target groups, such as civil protection staff, people that involved with the tourism industry, educators of disabled people, etc. Very positive aspect of the project is the involvement of end-users that should evaluate the training products; test standards; clarify the personnel’s roles and responsibilities; improve interagency coordination; identify gaps in resources; improve individual performance; and identify opportunities for improvement. It is worth mentioning that even though the abovementioned material developed is useful for the training of specific target groups on emergency management issues within Ionian Islands Region, it could be used throughout Greece and other countries too.

Keywords: education of civil protection staff, Ionian Islands Region of Greece, seismic risk, training material

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Authors: Kiatkulchai Jitt-Aer, Graham Wall, Dylan Jones

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As a result of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, logistics applied to disaster relief operations has received great attention in the humanitarian sector. As learned from such disaster, preparing and responding to the aspect of delivering essential items from distribution centres to affected locations are of the importance for relief operations as the nature of disasters is uncertain especially in suffering figures, which are normally proportional to quantity of supplies. Thus, this study proposes a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for humanitarian logistics by integrating Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). The GIS is utilised for acquiring demands simulated from the tsunami flooding model of the affected area in the first stage, and visualising the simulation solutions in the last stage. While CVRP in this study encompasses designing the relief routes of a set of homogeneous vehicles from a relief centre to a set of geographically distributed evacuation points in which their demands are estimated by using both simulation and randomisation techniques. The CVRP is modeled as a multi-objective optimization problem where both total travelling distance and total transport resources used are minimized, while demand-cost efficiency of each route is maximized in order to determine route priority. As the model is a NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem, the Clarke and Wright Saving heuristics is proposed to solve the problem for the near-optimal solutions. The real-case instances in the coastal area of Phuket, Thailand are studied to perform the SDSS that allows a decision maker to visually analyse the simulation scenarios through different decision factors.

Keywords: demand simulation, humanitarian logistics, geographical information systems, relief operations, capacitated vehicle routing problem

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Authors: Rana Waqar Aslam, Urooj Saeed, Hammad Mehmood, Hameed Ullah, Imtiaz Younas

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This research has been conducted to assess the water quality in and around Lahore Metropolitan area on the basis of three different land uses, i.e. residential, commercial, and industrial land uses. For this, 29 sample sites have been selected on the basis of simple random sampling technique. Samples were collected at the source (WASA tube wells). The criteria for selecting sample sites are to have a maximum concentration of population in the selected land uses. The results showed that in the residential land use the proportion of nitrate and turbidity is at their highest level in the areas of Allama Iqbal Town and Samanabad Town. Commercial land use of Gulberg and Data Gunj Bakhsh Town have highest level of proportion of chlorides, calcium, TDS, pH, Mg, total hardness, arsenic and alkalinity. Whereas in industrial type of land use in Ravi and Wahga Town have the proportion of arsenic, Mg, nitrate, pH, and turbidity are at their highest level. The high rate of concentration of these parameters in these areas is basically due to the old and fractured pipelines that allow bacterial as well as physiochemical contaminants to contaminate the portable water at the sources. Furthermore, it is seen in most areas that waste water from domestic, industrial, as well as municipal sources may get easy discharge into open spaces and water bodies, like, cannels, rivers, lakes that seeps and become a part of ground water. In addition, huge dumps located in Lahore are becoming the cause of ground water contamination as when the rain falls, the water gets seep into the ground and impures the ground water quality. On the basis of the derived results with the help of Geo-spatial technology ACRGIS 9.3 Interpolation (IDW), it is recommended that water filtration plants must be installed with specific parameter control. A separate team for proper inspection has to be made for water quality check at the source. Old water pipelines must be replaced with the new pipelines, and safe water depth must be ensured at the source end.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, pH, nitrate, disaster, IDW

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Authors: Megersa Dugasa Fite

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This paper analyses regulatory and supervisory issues in the Ethiopian micro finance sector, which caters to the needs of those who have been excluded from the formal financial sector. Micro-finance has received increased importance in development because of its grand goal to give credits to the poor to raise their economic and social well-being and improve the quality of lives. The micro-finance at present has been moving towards a credit-plus period through covering savings and insurance functions. It thus helps in reducing the rate of financial exclusion and social segregation, alleviating poverty and, consequently, stimulating development. The Ethiopian micro finance policy has been generally positive and developmental but major regulatory and supervisory limitations such as the absolute prohibition of NGOs to participate in micro credit functions, higher risks for depositors of micro-finance institutions, lack of credit information services with research and development, the unmet demand, and risks of market failures due to over-regulation are disappointing. Therefore, to remove the limited reach and high degree of problems typical in the informal means of financial intermediation plus to deal with the failure of formal banks to provide basic financial services to a significant portion of the country’s population, more needs to be done on micro finance. Certain key regulatory and supervisory revisions hence need to be taken to strengthen the Ethiopian micro finance sector so that it can practically provide majority poor access to a range of high quality financial services that help them work their way out of poverty and the incapacity it imposes.

Keywords: micro-finance, micro-finance regulation and supervision, micro-finance institutions, financial access, social segregation, poverty alleviation, development, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Yanqun Li, Hong Geng

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The occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 has led to severe damage to the rural areas of Chengdu city, such as the rupture of the social network, the stagnation of economic production and the rupture of living space. The post-disaster reconstruction has become a sustainable issue. As an important link to maintain the order of rural social development, social network should be an important content of post-disaster reconstruction. Therefore, this paper takes rural reconstruction communities in earthquake-stricken areas of Chengdu as the research object and adopts sociological research methods such as field survey, observation and interview to try to understand the transformation of rural social relations network under the influence of earthquake and its impact on rural space. It has found that rural societies under the earthquake generally experienced three phases: the break of stable social relations, the transition of temporary non-normal state, and the reorganization of social networks. The connotation of phased rural social relations also changed accordingly: turn to a new division of labor on the social orientation, turn to a capital flow and redistribution in new production mode on the capital orientation, and turn to relative decentralization after concentration on the spatial dimension. Along with such changes, rural areas have emerged some social issues such as the alienation of competition in the new industry division, the low social connection, the significant redistribution of capital, and the lack of public space. Based on a comprehensive review of these issues, this paper proposes the corresponding response mechanism. First of all, a reasonable division of labor should be established within the villages to realize diversified commodity supply. Secondly, the villages should adjust the industrial type to promote the equitable participation of capital allocation groups. Finally, external public spaces should be added to strengthen the field of social interaction within the communities.

Keywords: social relations, social support networks, industrial division, capital allocation, public space

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Authors: Kensuke Otsuyama

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The United Nation World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction was held in Sendai, Japan, in 2015 and priorities for actions until 2030 were adopted for the next 15 years. Although one of these priorities is to ‘build back better’, there is neither a consensus definition of better recovery, nor indicators to measure better recovery. However, the community is considered as a key driver of recovery nowadays, and participation is a key word for effective recovery. In order to understand more about participatory community recovery, the author investigated recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET) in Kesennuma, a severely affected city. The research sought to: 1) Identify the elements that contribute to better recovery at the community level, and 2) analyze the role of community volunteers for disaster risk reduction for better recovery. A Participatory Community Recovery Index (PCRI) was created as a tool to measure community recovery. The index adopts seven primary indicators and 20 tertiary indicators, including: socio-economic aspect, housing, health, environment, self-organization, transformation, and institution. The index was applied to nine districts in Kesennuma city. Secondary and primary data by questionnaire surveys with local residents’ organization leaders and interviews with crisis management department officials in city government were also obtained. The indicator results were transformed into scores among 1 to 5, and the results were shown for each district. Based on the result of PCRI, it was found that the s Local Social Welfare Council played an important role in facilitating better recovery, enhancing community volunteer involvement to allow elderly residents to initiate local volunteer work for more affected single-living elderly people. Volunteers for the elderly by the elderly played a crucial role to strengthen community bonding in Kesennuma. In this research, the potential of community volunteers and inter-linkage with DRR activities are discussed.

Keywords: recovery, participation, the great East Japan earthquake and tsunami, community volunteers

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Authors: Mengdan Guo, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang

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Drought is one of the most complex and destructive natural disasters, with a huge impact on both nature and society. In recent years, adverse climate conditions and uncontrolled human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of global droughts, among which socio-economic droughts are closely related to human survival. The study of socio-economic drought risk assessment is crucial for sustainable social development. Therefore, this study comprehensively considered the risk of disaster causing factors, the exposure level of the disaster-prone environment, and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body to construct a socio-economic drought risk assessment model for Chuxiong Prefecture in Yunnan Province. Firstly, a threedimensional frequency analysis of intensity area duration drought was conducted, followed by a statistical analysis of the drought risk of the socio-economic system. Secondly, a grid analysis model was constructed to assess the exposure levels of different agents and study the effects of drought on regional crop growth, industrial economic growth, and human consumption thresholds. Thirdly, an agricultural vulnerability model for different irrigation levels was established by using the DSSAT crop model. Industrial economic vulnerability and domestic water vulnerability under the impact of drought were investigated by constructing a standardized socio-economic drought index and coupling water loss. Finally, the socio-economic drought risk was assessed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province is relatively high, with high population and economic exposure concentrated in urban areas of various counties and districts, and high agricultural exposure concentrated in mountainous and rural areas. Irrigation can effectively reduce agricultural vulnerability in Chuxiong, and the yield loss rate under the 20mm winter irrigation scenario decreased by 10.7% compared to the rain fed scenario. From the perspective of comprehensive risk, the distribution of long-term socio-economic drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is relatively consistent, with the more severe areas mainly concentrated in Chuxiong City and Lufeng County, followed by counties such as Yao'an, Mouding and Yuanmou. Shuangbai County has the lowest socio-economic drought risk, which is basically consistent with the economic distribution trend of Chuxiong Prefecture. And in June, July, and August, the drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture is generally high. These results can provide constructive suggestions for the allocation of water resources and the construction of water conservancy facilities in Chuxiong Prefecture, and provide scientific basis for more effective drought prevention and control. Future research is in the areas of data quality and availability, climate change impacts, human activity impacts, and countermeasures for a more comprehensive understanding and effective response to drought risk in Chuxiong Prefecture.

Keywords: DSSAT model, risk assessment, socio-economic drought, standardized socio-economic drought index

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