Search results for: deterministic

Authors: A. Anastasopoulou, A. Kolios, T. Somorin, A. Sowale, Y. Jiang, B. Fidalgo, A. Parker, L. Williams, M. Collins, E. J. McAdam, S. Tyrrel

Abstract:

Developing countries are nowadays confronted with great challenges related to domestic sanitation services in view of the imminent water scarcity. Contemporary sanitation technologies established in these countries are likely to pose health risks unless waste management standards are followed properly. This paper provides a solution to sustainable sanitation with the development of an innovative toilet system, called Nano Membrane Toilet (NMT), which has been developed by Cranfield University and sponsored by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The particular technology converts human faeces into energy through gasification and provides treated wastewater from urine through membrane filtration. In order to evaluate the environmental profile of the NMT system, a deterministic life cycle assessment (LCA) has been conducted in SimaPro software employing the Ecoinvent v3.3 database. The particular study has determined the most contributory factors to the environmental footprint of the NMT system. However, as sensitivity analysis has identified certain critical operating parameters for the robustness of the LCA results, adopting a stochastic approach to the Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) will comprehensively capture the input data uncertainty and enhance the credibility of the LCA outcome. For that purpose, Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with an artificial neural network (ANN) model, have been conducted for the input parameters of raw material, produced electricity, NO_X emissions, amount of ash and transportation of fertilizer. The given analysis has provided the distribution and the confidence intervals of the selected impact categories and, in turn, more credible conclusions are drawn on the respective LCIA (Life Cycle Impact Assessment) profile of NMT system. Last but not least, the specific study will also yield essential insights into the methodological framework that can be adopted in the environmental impact assessment of other complex engineering systems subject to a high level of input data uncertainty.

Keywords: sanitation systems, nano-membrane toilet, lca, stochastic uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, artificial neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Malcolm Dinovitzer, Calvin Miller, Adam Hacker, Gabriel Wong, Zach Annen, Padmassun Rajakareyar, Jordan Mulvihill, Mostafa S.A. ElSayed

Abstract:

The research work presented in this paper is developed by the Blended Wing Body (BWB) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) team, a fourth-year capstone project at Carleton University Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. Here, a clean sheet UAV with BWB configuration is designed and optimized using Multiscale Design Optimization (MSDO) approach employing lattice materials taking into consideration design for additive manufacturing constraints. The BWB-UAV is being developed with a mission profile designed for surveillance purposes with a minimum payload of 1000 grams. To demonstrate the design methodology, a single design loop of a sample rib from the airframe is shown in details. This includes presentation of the conceptual design, materials selection, experimental characterization and residual thermal stress distribution analysis of additively manufactured materials, manufacturing constraint identification, critical loads computations, stress analysis and design optimization. A dynamic turbulent critical load case was identified composed of a 1-g static maneuver with an incremental Power Spectral Density (PSD) gust which was used as a deterministic design load case for the design optimization. 2D flat plate Doublet Lattice Method (DLM) was used to simulate aerodynamics in the aeroelastic analysis. The aerodynamic results were verified versus a 3D CFD analysis applying Spalart-Allmaras and SST k-omega turbulence to the rigid UAV and vortex lattice method applied in the OpenVSP environment. Design optimization of a single rib was conducted using topology optimization as well as MSDO. Compared to a solid rib, weight savings of 36.44% and 59.65% were obtained for the topology optimization and the MSDO, respectively. These results suggest that MSDO is an acceptable alternative to topology optimization in weight critical applications while preserving the functional requirements.

Keywords: blended wing body, multiscale design optimization, additive manufacturing, unmanned aerial vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Mehran Barani Shikhrobat, Roger Flanagan

Abstract:

The construction planning and scheduling based on using the current tools and techniques is resulted deterministic in nature (Gantt chart, CPM) or applying a very little probability of completion (PERT) for each task. However, every project embodies assumptions and influences and should start with a complete set of clearly defined goals and constraints that remain constant throughout the duration of the project. Construction planners continue to apply the traditional methods and tools of “hard” project management that were developed for “ideal projects,” neglecting the potential influence of complexity on the design and construction process. The aim of this research is to investigate the emergence and growth of complexity in project planning and to provide a model to consider the influence of complexity on the total project duration at the post-contract award pre-construction stage of a project. The literature review showed that complexity originates from different sources of environment, technical, and workflow interactions. They can be divided into two categories of complexity factors, first, project tasks, and second, project organisation management. Project tasks may originate from performance, lack of resources, or environmental changes for a specific task. Complexity factors that relate to organisation and management refer to workflow and interdependence of different parts. The literature review highlighted the ineffectiveness of traditional tools and techniques in planning for complexity. However, this research focus on understanding the fundamental causes of the complexity of construction projects were investigated through a questionnaire with industry experts. The results were used to develop a model that considers the core complexity factors and their interactions. System dynamics were used to investigate the model to consider the influence of complexity on project planning. Feedback from experts revealed 20 major complexity factors that impact project planning. The factors are divided into five categories known as core complexity factors. To understand the weight of each factor in comparison, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis method is used. The comparison showed that externalities are ranked as the biggest influence across the complexity factors. The research underlines that there are many internal and external factors that impact project activities and the project overall. This research shows the importance of considering the influence of complexity on the project master plan undertaken at the post-contract award pre-construction phase of a project.

Keywords: project planning, project complexity measurement, planning uncertainty management, project risk management, strategic project scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Biruk Wolde Eremacho

Abstract:

The Kombolcha to Desse road, linking Addis Ababa with Northern Ethiopia towns traverses through one of the most difficult mountainous ranges in Ethiopia. The presence of loose unconsolidated materials (colluvium materials), highly weathered and fractured basalt rocks high relief, steep natural slopes, nature of geologic formations exposed along the road section, poor drainage conditions, occurrence of high seasonal rains, and seismically active nature of the region created favorable condition for slope instability in the area. Thus, keeping in mind all above points the present study was conceived to study in detail the slope stability condition of the area. It was realized that detailed slope stability studies along this road section are very necessary to identify critical slopes and to provide the best remedial measures to minimize the slope instability problems which frequently disrupt and endanger the traffic movement on this important road. For the present study based on the field manifestation of instability two most critical slope sections were identified for detailed slope stability analysis. The deterministic slope stability analysis approach was followed to perform the detailed slope stability analysis of the selected slope sections. Factor of safety for the selected slope sections was determined for the different anticipated conditions (i.e., static and dynamic with varied water saturations) using Slope/W and Slide software. Both static and seismic slope stability analysis were carried out and factor of safety was deduced for each anticipated conditions. In general, detailed slope stability analysis of the two critical slope sections reveals that for only static dry condition both the slopes sections would be stable. However, for the rest anticipated conditions defined by static and dynamic situations with varied water saturations both critical slope sections would be unstable. Moreover, the causes of slope instability in the study area are governed by different factors; therefore integrated approaches of remedial measures are more appropriate to mitigate the possible slope instability in the study area. Depending on site condition and slope stability analysis result four types of suitable preventive and remedial measures are recommended namely; proper managements of drainages, retaining structures, gabions, and managing steeply cut slopes.

Keywords: factor of safety, remedial measures, slope stability analysis, static and dynamic condition

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Authors: Omer Burak Iskender, Keck Voon Ling, Vincent Dubanchet, Luca Simonini

Abstract:

This paper presents Guidance and Control (G&C) strategy to approach and synchronize with potentially rotating targets. The proposed strategy generates and tracks a safe trajectory for space servicing missions, including tasks like approaching, inspecting, and capturing. The main objective of this paper is to validate the G&C laws using a Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) setup with realistic rendezvous and docking equipment. Throughout this work, the assumption of full relative state feedback is relaxed by onboard sensors that bring realistic errors and delays and, while the proposed closed loop approach demonstrates the robustness to the above mentioned challenge. Moreover, G&C blocks are unified via the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, and the coupling between translational motion and rotational motion is addressed via dual quaternion based kinematic description. In this work, G&C is formulated as a convex optimization problem where constraints such as thruster limits and the output constraints are explicitly handled. Furthermore, the Monte-Carlo method is used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed method to the initial condition errors, the uncertainty of the target's motion and attitude, and actuator errors. A capture scenario is tested with the robotic test bench that has onboard sensors which estimate the position and orientation of a drifting satellite through camera imagery. Finally, the approach is compared with currently used robust H-infinity controllers and guidance profile provided by the industrial partner. The HIL experiments demonstrate that the proposed strategy is a potential candidate for future space servicing missions because 1) the algorithm is real-time implementable as convex programming offers deterministic convergence properties and guarantee finite time solution, 2) critical physical and output constraints are respected, 3) robustness to sensor errors and uncertainties in the system is proven, 4) couples translational motion with rotational motion.

Keywords: dual quaternion, model predictive control, real-time experimental test, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy, space servicing

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Mahboobe Daneshvar

Abstract:

Introduction: Clinical studies on the effect of systemic conditions on periodontal diseases have shown that some systemic deficiencies may provide grounds for the onset of periodontal diseases. One of these systemic problems is osteoporosis, which may be a risk factor for the onset and exacerbation of periodontitis. This study tends to evaluate periodontal indices in osteoporotic menopausal women and compare them with healthy controls. Materials and Methods: In this case-control study, participants included 45-75-year-old menopausal women referred to rheumatology wards of the Khatamolanbia Clinic and Shahid Sadoughi Hospital in Yazd; Their bone density was determined by DEXA-scan and by imaging the femoral-lumbar bone. Thirty patients with osteoporosis and 30 subjects with normal BMD were selected. Then, informed consent was obtained for participation in the study. During the clinical examinations, tooth loss (TL), plaque index (PI), gingival recession, pocket probing depth (PPD), clinical attachment loss (CAL), and tooth mobility (TM) were measured to evaluate the periodontal status. These clinical examinations were performed to determine the periodontal status by catheter, mirror and probe. Results: During the evaluation, there was no significant difference in PPD, PI, TM, gingival recession, and CAL between case and control groups (P-value>0.05); that is, osteoporosis has no effect on the above factors. These periodontal factors are almost the same in both healthy and patient groups. In the case of missing teeth, the following results were obtained: the mean of missing teeth was 22.173% of the total teeth in the case group and 18.583% of the total teeth in the control group. In the study of the missing teeth in the case and control groups, there was a significant relationship between case and control groups (P-value = 0.025). Conclusion: In fact, since periodontal disease is multifactorial and microbial plaque is the main cause, osteoporosis is considered a predisposing factor in exacerbation or persistence of periodontal disease. In patients with osteoporosis, usually pathological fractures, hormonal changes, and aging lead to reduced physical activity and affect oral health, which leads to the manifestation of periodontal disease. But this disease increases tooth loss by changing the shape and structure of bone trabeculae and weakening them. Osteoporosis does not seem to be a deterministic factor in the incidence of periodontal disease, since it affects bone quality rather than bone quantity.

Keywords: plaque index, Osteoporosis, tooth mobility, periodontal packet

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Mballa Abanda Luc Aurelien Serge, Henda Gnakate Biba, Kuate Guemo Romaric, Akono Rufine Nicole, Zabotom Yaya Fadel Biba, Petfiang Sidonie, Bella Suzane Jenifer

Abstract:

The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original, and innovative research thesis. A contribution to the theoretical, musicological, ethno musicological, and linguistic conceptualization of languages, giving rise to the practice of interlocution between the social and cognitive sciences, the activities of artistic creation, and the question of modeling in the human sciences: mathematics, computer science, translation automation, and artificial intelligence. When you apply this theory to any text of a folksong of a world-tone language, you do not only piece together the exact melody, rhythm, and harmonies of that song as if you knew it in advance but also the exact speaking of this language. The author believes that the issue of the disappearance of tonal languages and their preservation has been structurally resolved, as well as one of the greatest cultural equations related to the composition and creation of tonal, polytonal, and random music. The experimentation confirming the theorization, I designed a semi-digital, semi-analog application that translates the tonal languages of Africa (about 2,100 languages) into blues, jazz, world music, polyphonic music, tonal and anatonal music, and deterministic and random music). To test this application, I use music reading and writing software that allows me to collect the data extracted from my mother tongue, which is already modeled in the musical staves saved in the ethnographic (semiotic) dictionary for automatic translation ( volume 2 of the book). The translation is done (from writing to writing, from writing to speech, and from writing to music). Mode of operation: you type a text on your computer, a structured song (chorus-verse), and you command the machine a melody of blues, jazz, and world music or variety, etc. The software runs, giving you the option to choose harmonies, and then you select your melody.

Keywords: language, music, sciences, quantum entenglement

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

Abstract:

This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: Luis Guilherme Resende Santos, Ido Nevat, Leslie Norford

Abstract:

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is characterized by increased air temperatures in urban areas compared to undeveloped rural surrounding environments. With urbanization and densification, the intensity of UHI increases, bringing negative impacts on livability, health and economy. In order to reduce those effects, it is required to take into consideration design factors when planning future developments. Given design constraints such as population size and availability of area for development, non-trivial decisions regarding the buildings’ dimensions and their spatial distribution are required. We develop a framework for optimization of urban design in order to jointly minimize UHI intensity and buildings’ energy consumption. First, the design constraints are defined according to spatial and population limits in order to establish realistic boundaries that would be applicable in real life decisions. Second, the tools Urban Weather Generator (UWG) and EnergyPlus are used to generate outputs of UHI intensity and total buildings’ energy consumption, respectively. Those outputs are changed based on a set of variable inputs related to urban morphology aspects, such as building height, urban canyon width and population density. Lastly, an optimization problem is cast where the utility function quantifies the performance of each design candidate (e.g. minimizing a linear combination of UHI and energy consumption), and a set of constraints to be met is set. Solving this optimization problem is difficult, since there is no simple analytic form which represents the UWG and EnergyPlus models. We therefore cannot use any direct optimization techniques, but instead, develop an indirect “black box” optimization algorithm. To this end we develop a solution that is based on stochastic optimization method, known as the Cross Entropy method (CEM). The CEM translates the deterministic optimization problem into an associated stochastic optimization problem which is simple to solve analytically. We illustrate our model on a typical residential area in Singapore. Due to fast growth in population and built area and land availability generated by land reclamation, urban planning decisions are of the most importance for the country. Furthermore, the hot and humid climate in the country raises the concern for the impact of UHI. The problem presented is highly relevant to early urban design stages and the objective of such framework is to guide decision makers and assist them to include and evaluate urban microclimate and energy aspects in the process of urban planning.

Keywords: building energy consumption, stochastic optimization, urban design, urban heat island, urban weather generator

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Sneha Shankar, Orlando Buendia, Will Evans

Abstract:

Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a rare, genetic, and multisystemic condition. Underdiagnosis is common, leading to chronic pulmonary and hepatic complications, increased resource utilization, and additional costs to the healthcare system. Currently, there is limited evidence of the direct medical costs of AATD diagnosis in the UK. This study explores the economic impact of AATD patients during the 3 years before diagnosis and to identify the major cost drivers using primary and secondary care electronic health record (EHR) data. The 3 years before diagnosis time period was chosen based on the ability of our tool to identify patients earlier. The AATD algorithm was created using published disease criteria and applied to 148 known AATD patients’ EHR found in a primary care database of 936,148 patients (413,674 Biobank and 501,188 in a single primary care locality). Among 148 patients, 9 patients were flagged earlier by the tool and, on average, could save 3 (1-6) years per patient. We analysed 101 of the 148 AATD patients’ primary care journey and 20 patients’ Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, all of whom had at least 3 years of clinical history in their records before diagnosis. The codes related to laboratory tests, clinical visits, referrals, hospitalization days, day case, and inpatient admissions attributable to AATD were examined in this 3-year period before diagnosis. The average cost per patient was calculated, and the direct medical costs were modelled based on the mean prevalence of 100 AATD patients in a 500,000 population. A deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) of 20% was performed to determine the major cost drivers. Cost data was obtained from the NHS National tariff 2020/21, National Schedule of NHS Costs 2018/19, PSSRU 2018/19, and private care tariff. The total direct medical cost of one hundred AATD patients three years before diagnosis in primary and secondary care in the UK was £3,556,489, with an average direct cost per patient of £35,565. A vast majority of this total direct cost (95%) was associated with inpatient admissions (£3,378,229). The DSA determined that the costs associated with tier-2 laboratory tests and inpatient admissions were the greatest contributors to direct costs in primary and secondary care, respectively. This retrospective study shows the role of EHRs in calculating direct medical costs and the potential benefit of new technologies for the early identification of patients with AATD to reduce the economic burden in primary and secondary care in the UK.

Keywords: alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, costs, digital health, early diagnosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Luminiţa Duţică, Gheorghe Duţică

Abstract:

Many of the interrogations or dilemmas of the contemporary world found the answer in what was generically called the appeal to matrix. This genuine spiritual exercise of re-connection of the present to origins, to the primary source, revealed the ontological condition of timelessness, ahistorical, immutable (epi)phenomena, of those pure essences concentrated in the archetypal-referential layer of the human existence. The musical creation was no exception to this trend, the impasse generated by the deterministic excesses of the whole serialism or, conversely, by some questionable results of the extreme indeterminism proper to the avant-garde movements, stimulating the orientation of many composers to rediscover a universal grammar, as an emanation of a new ‘collective’ order (reverse of the utopian individualism). In this context, the music of oral tradition and therefore the world of the ancient modes represented a true revelation for the composers of the twentieth century, who were suddenly in front of some unsuspected (re)sources, with a major impact on all levels of edification of the musical work: morphology, syntax, timbrality, semantics etc. For the contemporary Romanian creators, the music of rituals, existing in the local archaic culture, opened unsuspected perspectives for which it meant to be a synthetic, inclusive and recoverer vision, where the primary (archetypal) genuine elements merge with the latest achievements of language of the European composers. Thus, anchored in a strong and genuine modal source, the compositions analysed in this paper evoke, in a manner as modern as possible, the atmosphere of some ancestral rituals such as: the invocation of rain during the drought (Paparudele, Scaloianul), funeral ceremony (Bocetul), traditions specific to the winter holidays and new year (Colinda, Cântecul de stea, Sorcova, Folklore traditional dances) etc. The reactivity of those rituals in the sound context of the twentieth century meant potentiating or resizing the archaic spirit of the primordial symbolic entities, in terms of some complexity levels generated by the technique of harmonies of chordal layers, of complex aggregates (gravitational or non-gravitational, geometric), of the mixture polyphonies and with global effect (group, mass), by the technique of heterophony, of texture and cluster, leading to the implementation of some processes of collective improvisation and instrumental theatre.

Keywords: archetype, improvisation, polyphony, ritual, instrumental theatre

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Johannes Günther

Abstract:

Time Sensitive Networking (TSN), standardized in the IEEE 802.1 standard, has been lent increasing attention in the context of mission critical systems. Such mission critical systems, e.g., in the automotive domain, aviation, industrial, and smart factory domain, are responsible for coordinating complex functionalities in real time. In many of these contexts, a reliable data exchange fulfilling hard time constraints and quality of service (QoS) conditions is of critical importance. TSN standards are able to provide guarantees for deterministic communication behaviour, which is in contrast to common best-effort approaches. Therefore, the superior QoS guarantees of TSN may aid in the development of new technologies, which rely on low latencies and specific bandwidth demands being fulfilled. TSN extends existing Ethernet protocols with numerous standards, providing means for synchronization, management, and overall real-time focussed capabilities. These additional QoS guarantees, as well as management mechanisms, lead to an increased attack surface for potential malicious attackers. As TSN guarantees certain deadlines for priority traffic, an attacker may degrade the QoS by delaying a packet beyond its deadline or even execute a denial of service (DoS) attack if the delays lead to packets being dropped. However, thus far, security concerns have not played a major role in the design of such standards. Thus, while TSN does provide valuable additional characteristics to existing common Ethernet protocols, it leads to new attack vectors on networks and allows for a range of potential attacks. One answer to these security risks is to deploy defense mechanisms according to a moving target defense (MTD) strategy. The core idea relies on the reduction of the attackers' knowledge about the network. Typically, mission-critical systems suffer from an asymmetric disadvantage. DoS or QoS-degradation attacks may be preceded by long periods of reconnaissance, during which the attacker may learn about the network topology, its characteristics, traffic patterns, priorities, bandwidth demands, periodic characteristics on links and switches, and so on. Here, we implemented and tested several MTD-like defense strategies against different attacker models of varying capabilities and budgets, as well as collaborative attacks of multiple attackers within a network, all within the context of TSN networks. We modelled the networks and tested our defense strategies on an OMNET++ testbench, with networks of different sizes and topologies, ranging from a couple dozen hosts and switches to significantly larger set-ups.

Keywords: network security, time sensitive networking, moving target defense, cyber security

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: Chi Zhang, Hua-Peng Chen

Abstract:

With the increasingly demanding resources in the word, renewable and clean energy has been considered as an alternative way to replace traditional ones. Thus, one of practical examples for using wind energy is wind turbine, which has gained more attentions in recent research. Like most offshore structures, the blades, which is the most critical components of the wind turbine, will be subjected to millions of loading cycles during service life. To operate safely in marine environments, the blades are typically made from fibre reinforced composite materials to resist fatigue delamination and harsh environment. The fatigue crack development of blades is uncertain because of indeterminate mechanical properties for composite and uncertainties under offshore environment like wave loads, wind loads, and humid environments. There are three main delamination failure modes for composite blades, and the most common failure type in practices is subjected to mixed mode loading, typically a range of opening (mode 1) and shear (mode 2). However, the fatigue crack development for mixed mode cannot be predicted as deterministic values because of various uncertainties in realistic practical situation. Therefore, selecting an effective stochastic model to evaluate the mixed mode behaviour of wind turbine blades is a critical issue. In previous studies, gamma process has been considered as an appropriate stochastic approach, which simulates the stochastic deterioration process to proceed in one direction such as realistic situation for fatigue damage failure of wind turbine blades. On the basis of existing studies, various Paris Law equations are discussed to simulate the propagation of the fatigue crack growth. This paper develops a Paris model with the stochastic deterioration modelling according to gamma process for predicting fatigue crack performance in design service life. A numerical example of wind turbine composite materials is investigated to predict the mixed mode crack depth by Paris law and the probability of fatigue failure by gamma process. The probability of failure curves under different situations are obtained from the stochastic deterioration model for comparisons. Compared with the results from experiments, the gamma process can take the uncertain values into consideration for crack propagation of mixed mode, and the stochastic deterioration process shows a better agree well with realistic crack process for composite blades. Finally, according to the predicted results from gamma stochastic model, assessment strategies for composite blades are developed to reduce total lifecycle costs and increase resistance for fatigue crack growth.

Keywords: Reinforced fibre composite, Wind turbine blades, Fatigue delamination, Mixed failure mode, Stochastic process.

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Henda Gnakate Biba, Ndassa Mouafon Issa

Abstract:

Dictionaries modeled on the Western model [tonic accent languages] are not suitable and do not account for tonal languages phonologically, which is why the [prosodic and phonological] ethnographic dictionary was designed. It is a glossary that expresses the tones and the rhythm of words. It recreates exactly the speaking or singing of a tonal language, and allows the non-speaker of this language to pronounce the words as if they were a native. It is a dictionary adapted to tonal languages. It was built from ethnomusicological theorems and phonological processes, according to Jean. J. Rousseau 1776 hypothesis /To say and to sing were once the same thing/. Each word in the French dictionary finds its corresponding language, ekaη. And each word ekaη is written on a musical staff. This ethnographic dictionary is also an inventive, original and innovative research thesis, but it is also an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. A contribution to the theoretical, musicological, ethno musicological and linguistic conceptualization of languages, giving rise to the practice of interlocution between the social and cognitive sciences, the activities of artistic creation and the question of modeling in the human sciences: mathematics, computer science, translation automation and artificial intelligence. When you apply this theory to any text of a folksong of a world-tone language, you do not only piece together the exact melody, rhythm, and harmonies of that song as if you knew it in advance but also the exact speaking of this language. The author believes that the issue of the disappearance of tonal languages and their preservation has been structurally resolved, as well as one of the greatest cultural equations related to the composition and creation of tonal, polytonal and random music. The experimentation confirming the theorization designed a semi-digital, semi-analog application which translates the tonal languages of Africa (about 2,100 languages) into blues, jazz, world music, polyphonic music, tonal and anatonal music and deterministic and random music). To test this application, I use a music reading and writing software that allows me to collect the data extracted from my mother tongue, which is already modeled in the musical staves saved in the ethnographic (semiotic) dictionary for automatic translation ( volume 2 of the book). Translation is done (from writing to writing, from writing to speech and from writing to music). Mode of operation: you type a text on your computer, a structured song (chorus-verse), and you command the machine a melody of blues, jazz and, world music or, variety etc. The software runs, giving you the option to choose harmonies, and then you select your melody.

Keywords: music, language, entenglement, science, research

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Zhenyu Zhang, Hsi-Hsien Wei

Abstract:

Highway networks play a vital role in post-disaster recovery for disaster-damaged areas. Damaged bridges in such networks can disrupt the recovery activities by impeding the transportation of people, cargo, and reconstruction resources. Therefore, rapid restoration of damaged bridges is of paramount importance to long-term disaster recovery. In the post-disaster recovery phase, the key to restoration scheduling for a highway network is prioritization of bridge-repair tasks. Resilience is widely used as a measure of the ability to recover with which a network can return to its pre-disaster level of functionality. In practice, highways will be temporarily blocked during the downtime of bridge restoration, leading to the decrease of highway-network functionality. The failure to take downtime effects into account can lead to overestimation of network resilience. Additionally, post-disaster recovery of highway networks is generally divided into emergency bridge repair (EBR) in the response phase and long-term bridge repair (LBR) in the recovery phase, and both of EBR and LBR are different in terms of restoration objectives, restoration duration, budget, etc. Distinguish these two phases are important to precisely quantify highway network resilience and generate suitable restoration schedules for highway networks in the recovery phase. To address the above issues, this study proposes a novel resilience quantification method for the optimization of long-term bridge repair schedules (LBRS) taking into account the impact of EBR activities and restoration downtime on a highway network’s functionality. A time-dependent integer program with recursive functions is formulated for optimally scheduling LBR activities. Moreover, since uncertainty always exists in the LBRS problem, this paper extends the optimization model from the deterministic case to the stochastic case. A hybrid genetic algorithm that integrates a heuristic approach into a traditional genetic algorithm to accelerate the evolution process is developed. The proposed methods are tested using data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, based on a regional highway network in Sichuan, China, consisting of 168 highway bridges on 36 highways connecting 25 cities/towns. The results show that, in this case, neglecting the bridge restoration downtime can lead to approximately 15% overestimation of highway network resilience. Moreover, accounting for the impact of EBR on network functionality can help to generate a more specific and reasonable LBRS. The theoretical and practical values are as follows. First, the proposed network recovery curve contributes to comprehensive quantification of highway network resilience by accounting for the impact of both restoration downtime and EBR activities on the recovery curves. Moreover, this study can improve the highway network resilience from the organizational dimension by providing bridge managers with optimal LBR strategies.

Keywords: disaster management, highway network, long-term bridge repair schedule, resilience, restoration downtime

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: André Jesus, Yanjie Zhu, Irwanda Laory

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Structural health monitoring is one of the most promising technologies concerning aversion of structural risk and economic savings. Analysts often have to deal with a considerable variety of uncertainties that arise during a monitoring process. Namely the widespread application of numerical models (model-based) is accompanied by a widespread concern about quantifying the uncertainties prevailing in their use. Some of these uncertainties are related with the deterministic nature of the model (code uncertainty) others with the variability of its inputs (parameter uncertainty) and the discrepancy between a model/experiment (systematic uncertainty). The actual process always exhibits a random behaviour (observation error) even when conditions are set identically (residual variation). Bayesian inference assumes that parameters of a model are random variables with an associated PDF, which can be inferred from experimental data. However in many Bayesian methods the determination of systematic uncertainty can be problematic. In this work systematic uncertainty is associated with a discrepancy function. The numerical model and discrepancy function are approximated by Gaussian processes (surrogate model). Finally, to avoid the computational burden of a fully Bayesian approach the parameters that characterise the Gaussian processes were estimated in a four stage process (modular Bayesian approach). The proposed methodology has been successfully applied on fields such as geoscience, biomedics, particle physics but never on the SHM context. This approach considerably reduces the computational burden; although the extent of the considered uncertainties is lower (second order effects are neglected). To successfully identify the considered uncertainties this formulation was extended to consider multiple responses. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on a small scale aluminium bridge structure, subjected to a thermal expansion due to infrared heaters. Comparison of its performance with responses measured at different points of the structure and associated degrees of identifiability is also carried out. A numerical FEM model of the structure was developed and the stiffness from its supports is considered as a parameter to calibrate. Results show that the modular Bayesian approach performed best when responses of the same type had the lowest spatial correlation. Based on previous literature, using different types of responses (strain, acceleration, and displacement) should also improve the identifiability problem. Uncertainties due to parametric variability, observation error, residual variability, code variability and systematic uncertainty were all recovered. For this example the algorithm performance was stable and considerably quicker than Bayesian methods that account for the full extent of uncertainties. Future research with real-life examples is required to fully access the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: bayesian, calibration, numerical model, system identification, systematic uncertainty, Gaussian process

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Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

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Authors: Fabrizio Ascione, Martina Borrelli, Rosa Francesca De Masi, Silvia Ruggiero, Giuseppe Peter Vanoli

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The refurbishment of public buildings is one of the key factors of energy efficiency policy of European States. Educational buildings account for the largest share of the oldest edifice with interesting potentialities for demonstrating best practice with regards to high performance and low and zero-carbon design and for becoming exemplar cases within the community. In this context, this paper discusses the critical issue of dealing the energy refurbishment of a university building in heating dominated climate of South Italy. More in detail, the importance of using validated models will be examined exhaustively by proposing an analysis on uncertainties due to modelling assumptions mainly referring to the adoption of stochastic schedules for occupant behavior and equipment or lighting usage. Indeed, today, the great part of commercial tools provides to designers a library of possible schedules with which thermal zones can be described. Very often, the users do not pay close attention to diversify thermal zones and to modify or to adapt predefined profiles, and results of designing are affected positively or negatively without any alarm about it. Data such as occupancy schedules, internal loads and the interaction between people and windows or plant systems, represent some of the largest variables during the energy modelling and to understand calibration results. This is mainly due to the adoption of discrete standardized and conventional schedules with important consequences on the prevision of the energy consumptions. The problem is surely difficult to examine and to solve. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis is presented, to understand what is the order of magnitude of error that is committed by varying the deterministic schedules used for occupation, internal load, and lighting system. This could be a typical uncertainty for a case study as the presented one where there is not a regulation system for the HVAC system thus the occupant cannot interact with it. More in detail, starting from adopted schedules, created according to questioner’ s responses and that has allowed a good calibration of energy simulation model, several different scenarios are tested. Two type of analysis are presented: the reference building is compared with these scenarios in term of percentage difference on the projected total electric energy need and natural gas request. Then the different entries of consumption are analyzed and for more interesting cases also the comparison between calibration indexes. Moreover, for the optimal refurbishment solution, the same simulations are done. The variation on the provision of energy saving and global cost reduction is evidenced. This parametric study wants to underline the effect on performance indexes evaluation of the modelling assumptions during the description of thermal zones.

Keywords: energy simulation, modelling calibration, occupant behavior, university building

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Authors: Mballa Abanda Serge, Henda Gnakate Biba, Romaric Guemno Kuate, Akono Rufine Nicole, Petfiang Sidonie, Bella Sidonie

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The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. A contribution to the theoretical, musicological, ethno musicological and linguistic conceptualization of languages, giving rise to the practice of interlocution between the social and cognitive sciences, the activities of artistic creation and the question of modeling in the human sciences: mathematics, computer science, translation automation and artificial intelligence. When you apply this theory to any text of a folksong of a world-tone language, you do not only piece together the exact melody, rhythm, and harmonies of that song as if you knew it in advance but also the exact speaking of this language. The author believes that the issue of the disappearance of tonal languages and their preservation has been structurally resolved, as well as one of the greatest cultural equations related to the composition and creation of tonal, polytonal and random music. The experimentation confirming the theorization, It designed a semi-digital, semi-analog application which translates the tonal languages of Africa (about 2,100 languages) into blues, jazz, world music, polyphonic music, tonal and anatonal music and deterministic and random music). To test this application, I use a music reading and writing software that allows me to collect the data extracted from my mother tongue, which is already modeled in the musical staves saved in the ethnographic (semiotic) dictionary for automatic translation ( volume 2 of the book). Translation is done (from writing to writing, from writing to speech and from writing to music). Mode of operation: you type a text on your computer, a structured song (chorus-verse), and you command the machine a melody of blues, jazz and world music or variety etc. The software runs, giving you the option to choose harmonies, and then you select your melody.

Keywords: music, entanglement, langauge, science

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Authors: J. H. Boonzaaier, A. C. Brent

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South Africa, a water scarce country, experiences the phenomenon that its life supporting natural water resources is seriously threatened by the users that are totally dependent on it. South Africa is globally applauded to have of the best and most progressive water laws and policies. There are however growing concerns regarding natural water resource quality deterioration and a critical void in the management of natural resources and compliance to policies due to increasing institutional uncertainties and failures. These are in accordance with concerns of many South African researchers and practitioners that call for a change in paradigm from talk to practice and a more constructive, practical approach to governance challenges in the management of water resources. A qualitative theory-building case study through longitudinal action research was conducted from 2014 to 2017. The research assessed whether a strategic positioned institutional agent can be parlayed to facilitate and execute WRM on catchment level by engaging multiple stakeholders in a polycentric setting. Through a critical realist approach a distinction was made between ex ante self-deterministic human behaviour in the realist realm, and ex post governance-management in the constructivist realm. A congruence analysis, including Toulmin’s method of argumentation analysis, was utilised. The study evaluated the unique case of a self-steering local water management institution, the Impala Water Users Association (WUA) in the Pongola River catchment in the northern part of the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa. Exploiting prevailing water resource threats, it expanded its ancillary functions from 20,000 to 300,000 ha. Embarking on WRM activities, it addressed natural water system quality assessments, social awareness, knowledge support, and threats, such as: soil erosion, waste and effluent into water systems, coal mining, and water security dimensions; through structured engagement with 21 different catchment stakeholders. By implementing a proposed polycentric governance-management model on a catchment scale, the WUA achieved to fill the void. It developed a foundation and capacity to protect the resilience of the natural environment that is critical for freshwater resources to ensure long-term water security of the Pongola River basin. Further work is recommended on appropriate statutory delegations, mechanisms of sustainable funding, sufficient penetration of knowledge to local levels to catalyse behaviour change, incentivised support from professionals, back-to-back expansion of WUAs to alleviate scale and cost burdens, and the creation of catchment data monitoring and compilation centres.

Keywords: institutional agent, water governance, polycentric water resource management, water resource management

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Authors: Nuno Biga

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) allows machines to interpret information and learn from context analysis, giving them the ability to make predictions adjusted to each specific situation. In addition to learning by performing deterministic and probabilistic calculations, the 'artificial brain' also learns through information and data provided by those who train it, namely its users. The "Assisted-BIGAMES" version of the Accident & Emergency (A&E) simulator introduces the concept of a "Virtual Assistant" (VA) that provides users with useful suggestions, namely to pursue the following operations: a) to relocate workstations in order to shorten travelled distances and minimize the stress of those involved; b) to identify in real time the bottleneck(s) in the operations system so that it is possible to quickly act upon them; c) to identify resources that should be polyvalent so that the system can be more efficient; d) to identify in which specific processes it may be advantageous to establish partnership with other teams; and e) to assess possible solutions based on the suggested KPIs allowing action monitoring to guide the (re)definition of future strategies. This paper is built on the BIGAMES© simulator and presents the conceptual AI model developed in a pilot project. Each Virtual Assisted BIGAME is a management simulator developed by the author that guides operational and strategic decision making, providing users with useful information in the form of management recommendations that make it possible to predict the actual outcome of different alternative management strategic actions. The pilot project developed incorporates results from 12 editions of the BIGAME A&E that took place between 2017 and 2022 at AESE Business School, based on the compilation of data that allows establishing causal relationships between decisions taken and results obtained. The systemic analysis and interpretation of this information is materialised in the Assisted-BIGAMES through a computer application called "BIGAMES Virtual Assistant" that players can use during the Game. Each participant in the Virtual Assisted-BIGAMES permanently asks himself about the decisions he should make during the game in order to win the competition. To this end, the role of the VA of each team consists in guiding the players to be more effective in their decision making through presenting recommendations based on AI methods. It is important to note that the VA's suggestions for action can be accepted or rejected by the managers of each team, and as the participants gain a better understanding of the game, they will more easily dispense with the VA's recommendations and rely more on their own experience, capability, and knowledge to support their own decisions. Preliminary results show that the introduction of the VA provides a faster learning of the decision-making process. The facilitator (Serious Game Controller) is responsible for supporting the players with further analysis and the recommended action may be (or not) aligned with the previous recommendations of the VA. All the information should be jointly analysed and assessed by each player, who are expected to add “Emotional Intelligence”, a component absent from the machine learning process.

Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), gamification, key performance indicators (KPI), machine learning, management simulators, serious games, virtual assistant

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Authors: Dylan Santos De Pinho, Nabil Ouerhani

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Energy consumption of machine-tools is becoming critical for machine-tool builders and end-users because of economic, ecological and legislation-related reasons. Many machine-tool builders are seeking for solutions that allow the reduction of energy consumption of machine-tools while preserving the same productivity rate and the same quality of machined parts. In this paper, we present the first results of a project conducted jointly by academic and industrial partners to reduce the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type lathe. We employ genetic algorithms to find optimal machining parameters – the set of parameters that lead to the best trade-off between energy consumption, part quality and tool lifetime. Three main machining process parameters are considered in our optimization technique, namely depth of cut, spindle rotation speed and material feed rate. These machining process parameters have been identified as the most influential ones in the configuration of the Swiss-type machining process. A state-of-the-art multi-objective genetic algorithm has been used. The algorithm combines three fitness functions, which are objective functions that permit to evaluate a set of parameters against the three objectives: energy consumption, quality of the machined parts, and tool lifetime. In this paper, we focus on the investigation of the fitness function related to energy consumption. Four different energy consumption related fitness functions have been investigated and compared. The first fitness function refers to the Kienzle cutting force model. The second fitness function uses the Material Removal Rate (RMM) as an indicator of energy consumption. The two other fitness functions are non-deterministic, learning-based functions. One fitness function uses a simple Neural Network to learn the relation between the process parameters and the energy consumption from experimental data. Another fitness function uses Lasso regression to determine the same relation. The goal is, then, to find out which fitness functions predict best the energy consumption of a Swiss-Type machining process for the given set of machining process parameters. Once determined, these functions may be used for optimization purposes – determine the optimal machining process parameters leading to minimum energy consumption. The performance of the four fitness functions has been evaluated. The Tornos DT13 Swiss-Type Lathe has been used to carry out the experiments. A mechanical part including various Swiss-Type machining operations has been selected for the experiments. The evaluation process starts with generating a set of CNC (Computer Numerical Control) programs for machining the part at hand. Each CNC program considers a different set of machining process parameters. During the machining process, the power consumption of the spindle is measured. All collected data are assigned to the appropriate CNC program and thus to the set of machining process parameters. The evaluation approach consists in calculating the correlation between the normalized measured power consumption and the normalized power consumption prediction for each of the four fitness functions. The evaluation shows that the Lasso and Neural Network fitness functions have the highest correlation coefficient with 97%. The fitness function “Material Removal Rate” (MRR) has a correlation coefficient of 90%, whereas the Kienzle-based fitness function has a correlation coefficient of 80%.

Keywords: adaptive machining, genetic algorithms, smart manufacturing, parameters optimization

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Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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Authors: Bandar A. Alkhayyal

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Modern supply chains are typically linear, transforming virgin raw materials into products for end consumers, who then discard them after use to landfills or incinerators. Nowadays, there are major efforts underway to create a circular economy to reduce non-renewable resource use and waste. One important aspect of these efforts is the development of Green Supply Chain (GSC) systems which enables a reverse flow of used products from consumers back to manufacturers, where they can be refurbished or remanufactured, to both economic and environmental benefit. This paper develops novel multi-objective optimization models to inform GSC system design at multiple levels: (1) strategic planning of facility location and transportation logistics; (2) tactical planning of optimal pricing; and (3) policy planning to account for potential valuation of GSC emissions. First, physical linear programming was applied to evaluate GSC facility placement by determining the quantities of end-of-life products for transport from candidate collection centers to remanufacturing facilities while satisfying cost and capacity criteria. Second, disassembly and remanufacturing processes have received little attention in industrial engineering and process cost modeling literature. The increasing scale of remanufacturing operations, worth nearly $50 billion annually in the United States alone, have made GSC pricing an important subject of research. A non-linear physical programming model for optimization of pricing policy for remanufactured products that maximizes total profit and minimizes product recovery costs were examined and solved. Finally, a deterministic equilibrium model was used to determine the effects of internalizing a cost of GSC greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into optimization models. Changes in optimal facility use, transportation logistics, and pricing/profit margins were all investigated against a variable cost of carbon, using case study system created based on actual data from sites in the Boston area. As carbon costs increase, the optimal GSC system undergoes several distinct shifts in topology as it seeks new cost-minimal configurations. A comprehensive study of quantitative evaluation and performance of the model has been done using orthogonal arrays. Results were compared to top-down estimates from economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) models, to contrast remanufacturing GHG emission quantities with those from original equipment manufacturing operations. Introducing a carbon cost of $40/t CO2e increases modeled remanufacturing costs by 2.7% but also increases original equipment costs by 2.3%. The assembled work advances the theoretical modeling of optimal GSC systems and presents a rare case study of remanufactured appliances.

Keywords: circular economy, extended producer responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, industrial ecology, low carbon logistics, green supply chains

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Kenneth A. Rostowsky, Alexander S. Maher, Nahian F. Chowdhury, Andrei Irimia

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The clinical significance of cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) due to mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) remains unclear. Here we use magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and connectomic analysis to investigate the statistical association between mTBI-related CMBs, post-TBI changes to the human connectome and neurological/cognitive deficits. This study was undertaken in agreement with US federal law (45 CFR 46) and was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the University of Southern California (USC). Two groups, one consisting of 26 (13 females) mTBI victims and another comprising 26 (13 females) healthy control (HC) volunteers were recruited through IRB-approved procedures. The acute Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score was available for each mTBI victim (mean µ = 13.2; standard deviation σ = 0.4). Each HC volunteer was assigned a GCS of 15 to indicate the absence of head trauma at the time of enrollment in our study. Volunteers in the HC and mTBI groups were matched according to their sex and age (HC: µ = 67.2 years, σ = 5.62 years; mTBI: µ = 66.8 years, σ = 5.93 years). MRI [including T1- and T2-weighted volumes, gradient recalled echo (GRE)/susceptibility weighted imaging (SWI)] and gradient echo (GE) DWI volumes were acquired using the same MRI scanner type (Trio TIM, Siemens Corp.). Skull-stripping and eddy current correction were implemented. DWI volumes were processed in TrackVis (http://trackvis.org) and 3D Slicer (http://www.slicer.org). Tensors were fit to DWI data to perform DTI, and tractography streamlines were then reconstructed using deterministic tractography. A voxel classifier was used to identify image features as CMB candidates using Microbleed Anatomic Rating Scale (MARS) guidelines. For each peri-lesional DTI streamline bundle, the null hypothesis was formulated as the statement that there was no neurological or cognitive deficit associated with between-scan differences in the mean FA of DTI streamlines within each bundle. The statistical significance of each hypothesis test was calculated at the α = 0.05 level, subject to the family-wise error rate (FWER) correction for multiple comparisons. Results: In HC volunteers, the along-track analysis failed to identify statistically significant differences in the mean FA of DTI streamline bundles. In the mTBI group, significant differences in the mean FA of peri-lesional streamline bundles were found in 21 out of 26 volunteers. In those volunteers where significant differences had been found, these differences were associated with an average of ~47% of all identified CMBs (σ = 21%). In 12 out of the 21 volunteers exhibiting significant FA changes, cognitive functions (memory acquisition and retrieval, top-down control of attention, planning, judgment, cognitive aspects of decision-making) were found to have deteriorated over the six months following injury (r = -0.32, p < 0.001). Our preliminary results suggest that acute post-TBI CMBs may be associated with cognitive decline in some mTBI patients. Future research should attempt to identify mTBI patients at high risk for cognitive sequelae.

Keywords: traumatic brain injury, magnetic resonance imaging, diffusion tensor imaging, connectomics

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Authors: Javad Jozaei, Rob G. Bell, Paula Blackett, Scott A. Stephens

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In the last few decades, Social Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) has been a favoured means in evaluating the susceptibility of social systems to drivers of change, including climate change and natural disasters. However, the application of SVA to inform responsive and practical strategies to deal with uncertain climate change impacts has always been challenging, and typically agencies resort back to conventional risk/vulnerability assessment. These challenges include complex nature of social vulnerability concepts which influence its applicability, complications in identifying and measuring social vulnerability determinants, the transitory social dynamics in a changing environment, and unpredictability of the scenarios of change that impacts the regime of vulnerability (including contention of when these impacts might emerge). Research suggests that the conventional quantitative approaches in SVA could not appropriately address these problems; hence, the outcomes could potentially be misleading and not fit for addressing the ongoing uncertain rise in risk. The second phase of New Zealand’s Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC2) is developing a forward-looking vulnerability assessment framework and methodology that informs the decision-making and policy development in dealing with the changing coastal systems and accounts for complex dynamics of New Zealand’s coastal systems (including socio-economic, environmental and cultural). Also, RNC2 requires the new methodology to consider plausible drivers of incremental and unknowable changes, create mechanisms to enhance social and community resilience; and fits the New Zealand’s multi-layer governance system. This paper aims to analyse the conventional approaches and methodologies in SVA and offer recommendations for more responsive approaches that inform adaptive decision-making and policy development in practice. The research adopts a qualitative research design to examine different aspects of the conventional SVA processes, and the methods to achieve the research objectives include a systematic review of the literature and case study methods. We found that the conventional quantitative, reductionist and deterministic mindset in the SVA processes -with a focus the impacts of rapid stressors (i.e. tsunamis, floods)- show some deficiencies to account for complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), and the uncertain, long-term impacts of incremental drivers. The paper will focus on addressing the links between resilience and vulnerability; and suggests how resilience theory and its underpinning notions such as the adaptive cycle, panarchy, and system transformability could address these issues, therefore, influence the perception of vulnerability regime and its assessment processes. In this regard, it will be argued that how a shift of paradigm from ‘specific resilience’, which focuses on adaptive capacity associated with the notion of ‘bouncing back’, to ‘general resilience’, which accounts for system transformability, regime shift, ‘bouncing forward’, can deliver more effective strategies in an era characterised by ongoing change and deep uncertainty.

Keywords: complexity, social vulnerability, resilience, transformation, uncertain risks

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Authors: Tiziana Ferrero-Regis, Marissa Lindquist

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Circular Economy (CE) is increasingly seen as the reorganisation of production and consumption, and cities are acknowledged as the sources of many ecological and social problems; at the same time, they can be re-imagined through an ecologically and socially resilient future. The concept of the CE has received pointed critiques for its techno-deterministic orientation, focus on science and transformation by the policy. At the heart of our local re-imagining of the CE into circularity through contact zones there is the acknowledgment of collective, spontaneous and shared imaginations of alternative and sustainable futures through the creation of networks of community initiatives that are transformative, creating opportunities that simultaneously make cities rich and enrich humans. This paper presents a mapping project of the fashion and textile ecosystem in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Brisbane is currently the most aspirational city in Australia, as its population growth rate is the highest in the country. Yet, Brisbane is considered the least “fashion city” in the country. In contrast, the project revealed a greatly enhanced picture of distinct fashion and textile clusters across greater Brisbane and the adjacency of key services that may act to consolidate CE community contact zones. Clusters to the north of Brisbane and several locales to the south are zones of a greater mix between public/social amenities, walkable zones and local transport networks with educational precincts, community hubs, concentration of small enterprises, designers, artisans and waste recovery centers that will help to establish knowledge of key infrastructure networks that will support enmeshing these zones together. The paper presents two case studies of independent designers who work on new and re-designed clothing through recovering pre-consumer textiles and that operate from within creative precincts. The first case is designer Nelson Molloy, who recently returned to the inner city suburb of West End with their Chasing Zero Design project. The area was known in the 1980s and 1990s for its alternative lifestyle with creative independent production, thrifty clothing shops, alternative fashion and a socialist agenda. After 30 years of progressive gentrification of the suburb, which has dislocated many of the artists, designers and artisans, West End is seeing the return and amplification of clusters of artisans, artists, designers and architects. The other case study is Practice Studio, located in a new zone of creative growth, Bowen Hills, north of the CBD. Practice Studio combines retail with a workroom, offers repair and remaking services, becoming a point of reference for young and emerging Australian designers and artists. The paper demonstrates the spatial politics of the CE and the way in which new cultural capital is produced thanks to cultural specificities and resources. It argues for the recognition of contact zones that are created by local actors, communities and knowledge networks, whose grass-roots agency is fundamental for the co-production of CE’s systems of local governance.

Keywords: contact zones, circular citities, fashion and textiles, circular neighbourhoods, australia

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Authors: Pierobon Enrico, Missiaggia Marta, Castelluzzo Michele, Tommasino Francesco, Ricci Leonardo, Scifoni Emanuele, Vincezo Monaco, Boscardin Maurizio, La Tessa Chiara

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Clinical outcomes collected over the past three decades have suggested that ion therapy has the potential to be a treatment modality superior to conventional radiation for several types of cancer, including recurrences, as well as for other diseases. Although the results have been encouraging, numerous treatment uncertainties remain a major obstacle to the full exploitation of particle radiotherapy. To overcome therapy uncertainties optimizing treatment outcome, the best possible radiation quality description is of paramount importance linking radiation physical dose to biological effects. Microdosimetry was developed as a tool to improve the description of radiation quality. By recording the energy deposition at the micrometric scale (the typical size of a cell nucleus), this approach takes into account the non-deterministic nature of atomic and nuclear processes and creates a direct link between the dose deposited by radiation and the biological effect induced. Microdosimeters measure the spectrum of lineal energy y, defined as the energy deposition in the detector divided by most probable track length travelled by radiation. The latter is provided by the so-called “Mean Chord Length” (MCL) approximation, and it is related to the detector geometry. To improve the characterization of the radiation field quality, we define a new quantity replacing the MCL with the actual particle track length inside the microdosimeter. In order to measure this new quantity, we propose a two-stage detector consisting of a commercial Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (TEPC) and 4 layers of Low Gain Avalanche Detectors (LGADs) strips. The TEPC detector records the energy deposition in a region equivalent to 2 um of tissue, while the LGADs are very suitable for particle tracking because of the thickness thinnable down to tens of micrometers and fast response to ionizing radiation. The concept of HDM has been investigated and validated with Monte Carlo simulations. Currently, a dedicated readout is under development. This two stages detector will require two different systems to join complementary information for each event: energy deposition in the TEPC and respective track length recorded by LGADs tracker. This challenge is being addressed by implementing SoC (System on Chip) technology, relying on Field Programmable Gated Arrays (FPGAs) based on the Zynq architecture. TEPC readout consists of three different signal amplification legs and is carried out thanks to 3 ADCs mounted on a FPGA board. LGADs activated strip signal is processed thanks to dedicated chips, and finally, the activated strip is stored relying again on FPGA-based solutions. In this work, we will provide a detailed description of HDM geometry and the SoC solutions that we are implementing for the readout.

Keywords: particle tracking, ion therapy, low gain avalanche diode, tissue equivalent proportional counter, microdosimetry

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Authors: Pomozova Kseniia, Gorlachev Gennadiy, Chernyaev Aleksandr, Golanov Andrey

Abstract:

In clinical practice, and especially in stereotactic radiosurgery planning, the significance of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) is growing. This makes the existence of software capable of quickly processing and reliably visualizing diffusion data, as well as equipped with tools for their analysis in terms of different tasks. We are developing the «MRDiffusionImaging» software on the standard C++ language. The subject part has been moved to separate class libraries and can be used on various platforms. The user interface is Windows WPF (Windows Presentation Foundation), which is a technology for managing Windows applications with access to all components of the .NET 5 or .NET Framework platform ecosystem. One of the important features is the use of a declarative markup language, XAML (eXtensible Application Markup Language), with which you can conveniently create, initialize and set properties of objects with hierarchical relationships. Graphics are generated using the DirectX environment. The MRDiffusionImaging software package has been implemented for processing diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI), which allows loading and viewing images sorted by series. An algorithm for "masking" dMRI series based on T2-weighted images was developed using a deformable surface model to exclude tissues that are not related to the area of interest from the analysis. An algorithm of distortion correction using deformable image registration based on autocorrelation of local structure has been developed. Maximum voxel dimension was 1,03 ± 0,12 mm. In an elementary brain's volume, the diffusion tensor is geometrically interpreted using an ellipsoid, which is an isosurface of the probability density of a molecule's diffusion. For the first time, non-parametric intensity distributions, neighborhood correlations, and inhomogeneities are combined in one segmentation of white matter (WM), grey matter (GM), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) algorithm. A tool for calculating the coefficient of average diffusion and fractional anisotropy has been created, on the basis of which it is possible to build quantitative maps for solving various clinical problems. Functionality has been created that allows clustering and segmenting images to individualize the clinical volume of radiation treatment and further assess the response (Median Dice Score = 0.963 ± 0,137). White matter tracts of the brain were visualized using two algorithms: deterministic (fiber assignment by continuous tracking) and probabilistic using the Hough transform. The proposed algorithms test candidate curves in the voxel, assigning to each one a score computed from the diffusion data, and then selects the curves with the highest scores as the potential anatomical connections. White matter fibers were visualized using a Hough transform tractography algorithm. In the context of functional radiosurgery, it is possible to reduce the irradiation volume of the internal capsule receiving 12 Gy from 0,402 cc to 0,254 cc. The «MRDiffusionImaging» will improve the efficiency and accuracy of diagnostics and stereotactic radiotherapy of intracranial pathology. We develop software with integrated, intuitive support for processing, analysis, and inclusion in the process of radiotherapy planning and evaluating its results.

Keywords: diffusion-weighted imaging, medical imaging, stereotactic radiosurgery, tractography

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Ajit Rai, Hamza Deroui, Blandine Vacher, Khwansiri Ninpan, Arthur Aumont, Francesco Vitillo, Robert Plana

Abstract:

Large-scale critical industrial scheduling problems are based on Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problems (RCPSP), that necessitate integration with other optimization problems (e.g., vehicle routing, supply chain, or unique industrial ones), thus requiring practical solutions (i.e., modular, computationally efficient with feasible solutions). To the best of our knowledge, the current industrial state of the art is not addressing this holistic problem. We propose an original modular solution that answers the issues exhibited by the delivery of complex projects. With three interlinked entities (project, task, resources) having their constraints, it uses a greedy heuristic with a dynamic cost function for each task with a situational assessment at each time step. It handles large-scale data and can be easily integrated with other optimization problems, already existing industrial tools and unique constraints as required by the use case. The solution has been tested and validated by domain experts on three use cases: outage management in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), planning of future NPP maintenance operation, and application in the defense industry on supply chain and factory relocation. In the first use case, the solution, in addition to the resources’ availability and tasks’ logical relationships, also integrates several project-specific constraints for outage management, like, handling of resource incompatibility, updating of tasks priorities, pausing tasks in a specific circumstance, and adjusting dynamic unit of resources. With more than 20,000 tasks and multiple constraints, the solution provides a feasible schedule within 10-15 minutes on a standard computer device. This time-effective simulation corresponds with the nature of the problem and requirements of several scenarios (30-40 simulations) before finalizing the schedules. The second use case is a factory relocation project where production lines must be moved to a new site while ensuring the continuity of their production. This generates the challenge of merging job shop scheduling and the RCPSP with location constraints. Our solution allows the automation of the production tasks while considering the rate expectation. The simulation algorithm manages the use and movement of resources and products to respect a given relocation scenario. The last use case establishes a future maintenance operation in an NPP. The project contains complex and hard constraints, like on Finish-Start precedence relationship (i.e., successor tasks have to start immediately after predecessors while respecting all constraints), shareable coactivity for managing workspaces, and requirements of a specific state of "cyclic" resources (they can have multiple states possible with only one at a time) to perform tasks (can require unique combinations of several cyclic resources). Our solution satisfies the requirement of minimization of the state changes of cyclic resources coupled with the makespan minimization. It offers a solution of 80 cyclic resources with 50 incompatibilities between levels in less than a minute. Conclusively, we propose a fast and feasible modular approach to various industrial scheduling problems that were validated by domain experts and compatible with existing industrial tools. This approach can be further enhanced by the use of machine learning techniques on historically repeated tasks to gain further insights for delay risk mitigation measures.

Keywords: deterministic scheduling, optimization coupling, modular scheduling, RCPSP

Procedia PDF Downloads 155