Search results for: decision experts
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4852

Search results for: decision experts

4702 Developing a Model – an Application of Fuzzy Analytic Network Process Techniques for Hostels

Authors: Pin-Ju Juan, Peng-Yu Juan, Yi-Shan Chen

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to present a fuzzy Analytic Network Process (ANP) model for the hostel organizational performance selection. In this article, we created 39 criteria for selecting hostel organizational performance acquired from literature's review and experts method practical investigations, and the methods of fuzzy analytic network process are used to consolidate decision-makers’ assessments about criteria weightings. Finally, we selected organizational performance of a hostel in Taiwan to determine the effectiveness of the proposed evaluation model in this paper.

Keywords: Fuzzy ANP, hostel, organizational performance, strategy management

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
4701 A Bayesian Classification System for Facilitating an Institutional Risk Profile Definition

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 397
4700 Decision-Making, Student Empathy, and Cold War Historical Events: A Case Study of Abstract Thinking through Content-Centered Learning

Authors: Jeffrey M. Byford

Abstract:

The conceptualized theory of decision making on historical events often does not conform to uniform beliefs among students. When presented the opportunity, many students have differing opinions and rationales associated with historical events and outcomes. The intent of this paper was to provide students with the economic, social and political dilemmas associated with the autonomy of East Berlin. Students ranked seven possible actions from the most to least acceptable. In addition, students were required to provide both positive and negative factors for each decision and relative ranking. Results from this activity suggested that while most students chose a financial action towards West Berlin, some students had trouble justifying their actions.

Keywords: content-centered learning, cold war, Berlin, decision-making

Procedia PDF Downloads 423
4699 The Application of Article 111 of the Constitution of Bangladesh in the Criminal Justice System as a Sentencing Guideline

Authors: Sadiya S. Silvee

Abstract:

Generally, the decision of the higher court is binding on its subordinate courts. As provided in Article 111 of the Constitution, 'the law declared by the Appellate Division (AD) shall be binding on the High Court Division (HCD) and the law declared by either division of the Supreme Court shall be binding on all courts subordinate to it.' This means the judicial discipline requires the HCD to follow the decision of the AD and that it is necessary for the lower tiers of courts to accept the decision of the higher tiers as a binding precedent. Analyzing the application of Article 111 of the Constitution in the criminal justice system as a sentencing guideline, the paper, by examining whether there is any consistency in decision between one HC Bench and another HC Bench, explores whether HCD can per incuriam its previous decision. In doing so, the Death Reference (DR) Cases are contemplated. Furthermore, the paper shall examine whether the Court of Session follows the decision of the HCD while using their discretion to make the choice between death and imprisonment for life under section 302 of PC. The paper argues due to the absence of any specific direction for sentencing and inconsistency in jurisprudence among the HCD; the subordinate courts are in a dilemma.

Keywords: death reference, sentencing factor, sentencing guideline, criminal justice system and constitution

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
4698 An Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Motor Insurance Fraud Claims in Nigeria

Authors: Olatokunbo Shoyemi, Mario Brito, Ian Dawson

Abstract:

In recent times, the Nigerian motor insurers have experienced high volume of motor insurance claim pay-outs and insignificant contribution to the net premium income of the Nigerian insurance market, which has been a major concern for the shareholders/stakeholders. It has been argued that there are many factors that have brought about these concerns. However, anecdotal evidence (ongoing debates among industry practitioners) suggests prevalence of fraud due to poor practices in motor insurance business in Nigeria. This study is therefore aimed to carry out an assessment of fraud in motor insurance claims as perceived by experts in the Nigerian insurance market. This study adopted a descriptive research design, and the analysis was built on a survey among insurance experts in Nigeria using a designed questionnaire. A purposive and snowball sampling were used to select our sample (N = 120) - representing a selection of all professionally qualified insurance experts in Nigeria insurance industry. The study found that Nigerian insurance experts (i) largely agree that there is a problematic level of fraud in the Nigerian motor insurance industry; (ii) perceive soft fraud to be about 3 times more common than hard fraud in the Nigerian motor insurance industry, and (iii) strongly agree there are problematic impacts from fraud on the solvency of the Nigerian motor insurers. This paper has provided an empirical understanding of the existence, extent, and impact of fraud risks within the Nigerian insurance market based on expert knowledge and insights rather than, as has often been the case, a reliance on individual anecdotes.

Keywords: claims, net premium income, motor insurance, soft fraud, hard fraud

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
4697 Attachment and Decision-Making in Infertility

Authors: Anisa Luli, Alessandra Santona

Abstract:

Wanting a child and experiencing the impossibility to conceive is a painful condition that often is linked to infertility and often leads infertile individuals to experience psychological, relational and social problems. In this situation, infertile couples have to review their choices and take into consideration new ones. Few studies have focused on the decision-making style used by infertile individuals to solve their problem and on the factors that influences it. The aim of this paper is to define the style of decision-making used by infertile persons to give a solution to the “problem” and the predictive role of the attachment, of the representations of the relationship with parents in childhood and of the dyadic adjustment. The total sample is composed by 251 participants, divided in two groups: the experimental group composed by 114 participants, 62 males and 52 females, age between 25 and 59 years, and the control group composed by 137 participants, 65 males and 72 females, age between 22 and 49 years. The battery of instruments comprises: General Decision Making Style (GDMS), Experiences in Close Relationships Questionnaire Revised (ECR-R), Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS), Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI) and Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R). The results from the analysis of the samples showed a prevalence of the rational decision-making style for both males and females, experimental and control group. There have been founded significant statistical relationships between the attachment scales, the representations of the parenting style, the dyadic adjustment and the decision-making styles. These results contribute to enrich the literature on the subject of decision-making in infertile people and show the relationship between the attachment and decision-making styles, confirming the few results in literature.

Keywords: attachment, decision-making style, infertility, dyadic adjustment

Procedia PDF Downloads 550
4696 Descriptive Analysis: New Media Influence on Decision Makers

Authors: Bashaiar Alsanaa

Abstract:

The process of decision making requires environment surveillance and public opinion monitoring, both of which can be attained through effective use of social media. This study aims to investigate the extent to which new media influence the decision making process by the Kuwaiti government. The research explores how unprecedented access to information as well as dynamic user-interaction made possible by new technologies play a significant role in all aspects of decision making whether on the end of the public or decision makers themselves. The research analyzes two case studies where public opinion was forceful on social media in order to explore how such media create interactive and liberal environments for individuals to participate in the process of taking action with regards to political, economic and social issues. The findings of this descriptive study indicate the overwhelming extent to which social media are being used in Kuwait to create new social reform by the government based on citizen interaction with current topics.

Keywords: communication, descriptive, new media technologies, social media.

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
4695 A PROMETHEE-BELIEF Approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making Problems with Incomplete Information

Authors: H. Moalla, A. Frikha

Abstract:

Multi-criteria decision aid methods consider decision problems where numerous alternatives are evaluated on several criteria. These methods are used to deal with perfect information. However, in practice, it is obvious that this information requirement is too much strict. In fact, the imperfect data provided by more or less reliable decision makers usually affect decision results since any decision is closely linked to the quality and availability of information. In this paper, a PROMETHEE-BELIEF approach is proposed to help multi-criteria decisions based on incomplete information. This approach solves problems with incomplete decision matrix and unknown weights within PROMETHEE method. On the base of belief function theory, our approach first determines the distributions of belief masses based on PROMETHEE’s net flows and then calculates weights. Subsequently, it aggregates the distribution masses associated to each criterion using Murphy’s modified combination rule in order to infer a global belief structure. The final action ranking is obtained via pignistic probability transformation. A case study of real-world application concerning the location of a waste treatment center from healthcare activities with infectious risk in the center of Tunisia is studied to illustrate the detailed process of the BELIEF-PROMETHEE approach.

Keywords: belief function theory, incomplete information, multiple criteria analysis, PROMETHEE method

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
4694 Statistical Approach to Identify Stress and Biases Impairing Decision-Making in High-Risk Industry

Authors: Ph. Fauquet-Alekhine

Abstract:

Decision-making occurs several times an hour when working in high risk industry and an erroneous choice might have undesirable outcomes for people and the environment surrounding the industrial plant. Industrial decisions are very often made in a context of acute stress. Time pressure is a crucial stressor leading decision makers sometimes to boost up the decision-making process and if it is not possible then shift to the simplest strategy. We thus found it interesting to update the characterization of the stress factors impairing decision-making at Chinon Nuclear Power Plant (France) in order to optimize decision making contexts and/or associated processes. The investigation was based on the analysis of reports addressing safety events over the last 3 years. Among 93 reports, those explicitly addressing decision-making issues were identified. Characterization of each event was undertaken in terms of three criteria: stressors, biases impairing decision making and weaknesses of the decision-making process. The statistical analysis showed that biases were distributed over 10 possibilities among which the hypothesis confirmation bias was clearly salient. No significant correlation was found between criteria. The analysis indicated that the main stressor was time pressure and highlights an unexpected form of stressor: the trust asymmetry principle of the expert. The analysis led to the conclusion that this stressor impaired decision-making from a psychological angle rather than from a physiological angle: it induces defensive bias of self-esteem, self-protection associated with a bias of confirmation. This leads to the hypothesis that this stressor can intervene in some cases without being detected, and to the hypothesis that other stressors of the same kind might occur without being detected too. Further investigations addressing these hypotheses are considered. The analysis also led to the conclusion that dealing with these issues implied i) decision-making methods being well known to the workers and automated and ii) the decision-making tools being well known and strictly applied. Training was thus adjusted.

Keywords: bias, expert, high risk industry, stress.

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
4693 Breast Cancer Risk is Predicted Using Fuzzy Logic in MATLAB Environment

Authors: S. Valarmathi, P. B. Harathi, R. Sridhar, S. Balasubramanian

Abstract:

Machine learning tools in medical diagnosis is increasing due to the improved effectiveness of classification and recognition systems to help medical experts in diagnosing breast cancer. In this study, ID3 chooses the splitting attribute with the highest gain in information, where gain is defined as the difference between before the split versus after the split. It is applied for age, location, taluk, stage, year, period, martial status, treatment, heredity, sex, and habitat against Very Serious (VS), Very Serious Moderate (VSM), Serious (S) and Not Serious (NS) to calculate the gain of information. The ranked histogram gives the gain of each field for the breast cancer data. The doctors use TNM staging which will decide the risk level of the breast cancer and play an important decision making field in fuzzy logic for perception based measurement. Spatial risk area (taluk) of the breast cancer is calculated. Result clearly states that Coimbatore (North and South) was found to be risk region to the breast cancer than other areas at 20% criteria. Weighted value of taluk was compared with criterion value and integrated with Map Object to visualize the results. ID3 algorithm shows the high breast cancer risk regions in the study area. The study has outlined, discussed and resolved the algorithms, techniques / methods adopted through soft computing methodology like ID3 algorithm for prognostic decision making in the seriousness of the breast cancer.

Keywords: ID3 algorithm, breast cancer, fuzzy logic, MATLAB

Procedia PDF Downloads 495
4692 Decision Making for Industrial Engineers: From Phenomenon to Value

Authors: Ali Abbas

Abstract:

Industrial Engineering is a broad multidisciplinary field with intersections and applications in numerous areas. In out current environment, the path from a phenomenon to value involves numerous people with expertise in various areas including domain knowledge of a field and the ability to make decisions within an operating environment that lead to value creation. We propose some skills that industrial engineering programs should focus on, and argue that an industrial engineer is a decision maker instead of a problem solver.

Keywords: decision analysis, problem-solving, value creation, industrial engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 345
4691 A Behaviourally Plausible Decision Centred Perspective on the Role of Corporate Governance in Corporate Failures

Authors: Navdeep Kaur

Abstract:

The primary focus of this study is to answer “What is the role of corporate governance in corporate failures? Does poor corporate governance lead to corporate failures? If so, how?”. In doing so, the study examines the literature from multiple fields, including corporate governance, corporate failures and organizational decision making, and presents a research gap to analyze and explore the relationship between corporate governance practices and corporate failures through a behavioral lens. In approaching this, a qualitative research methodology is adopted to analyze the failure of Enron Corporation (United States). The research considered the case study organizations as the primary unit of analysis and the decision-makers as the secondary unit of analysis. Based on this research approach, the study reports the analytical results drawn from extensive and triangulated secondary data. The study then interprets the results in the context of the theoretical synthesis. The study contributes towards filling a gap in the research and presents a behaviourally plausible decision centered model of the role of corporate governance in corporate failures. The model highlights the critical role of the behavioral aspects of corporate governance decision making in corporate failures and focuses attention on the under-explored aspects of corporate governance decision making. The study also suggests a further understanding of ‘A Behavioral Theory of the Firm’ in relation to corporate failures.

Keywords: behavior, corporate failure, corporate governance, decision making, values

Procedia PDF Downloads 94
4690 Optimizing Design Works in Construction Consultant Company: A Knowledge-Based Application

Authors: Phan Nghiem Vu, Le Tuan Vu, Ta Quang Tai

Abstract:

The optimal construction design used during the execution of a construction project is a key factor in determining high productivity and customer satisfaction, however, this management process sometimes is carried out without care and the systematic method that it deserves, bringing negative consequences. This study proposes a knowledge management (KM) approach that will enable the intelligent use of experienced and acknowledged engineers to improve the management of construction design works for a project. Then a knowledge-based application to support this decision-making process is proposed and described. To define and design the system for the application, semi-structured interviews were conducted within five construction consulting organizations with the purpose of studying the way that the method’ optimizing process is implemented in practice and the knowledge supported with it. A system of an optimizing construction design works (OCDW) based on knowledge was developed then validated with construction experts. The OCDW was liked as a valuable tool for construction design works’ optimization, by supporting organizations to generate a corporate memory on this issue, reducing the reliance on individual knowledge and also the subjectivity of the decision-making process. The benefits are described as provided by the performance support system, reducing costs and time, improving product design quality, satisfying customer requirements, expanding the brand organization.

Keywords: optimizing construction design work, construction consultant organization, knowledge management, knowledge-based application

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
4689 Real-Time Classification of Marbles with Decision-Tree Method

Authors: K. S. Parlak, E. Turan

Abstract:

The separation of marbles according to the pattern quality is a process made according to expert decision. The classification phase is the most critical part in terms of economic value. In this study, a self-learning system is proposed which performs the classification of marbles quickly and with high success. This system performs ten feature extraction by taking ten marble images from the camera. The marbles are classified by decision tree method using the obtained properties. The user forms the training set by training the system at the marble classification stage. The system evolves itself in every marble image that is classified. The aim of the proposed system is to minimize the error caused by the person performing the classification and achieve it quickly.

Keywords: decision tree, feature extraction, k-means clustering, marble classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
4688 An Integrated Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE) Model

Authors: Babak Daneshvar Rouyendegh

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: Decision-Makers (DMs), Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La REalite (IFELECTRE), Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN)

Procedia PDF Downloads 644
4687 Review of Models of Consumer Behaviour and Influence of Emotions in the Decision Making

Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology

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4686 A Neuro-Automata Decision Support System for the Control of Late Blight in Tomato Crops

Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

Abstract:

The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 416
4685 Ways for University to Conduct Research Evaluation: Based on National Research University Higher School of Economics Example

Authors: Svetlana Petrikova, Alexander Yu Kostinskiy

Abstract:

Management of research evaluation in the Higher School of Economics (HSE) originates from the HSE Academic Fund created in 2004 to facilitate and support academic research and presents its results to international academic community. As the means to inspire the applicants, science projects went through competitive selection process evaluated by the group of experts. Drastic development of HSE, quantity of applied projects for each Academic Fund competition and the need to coordinate the conduct of expert evaluation resulted in founding of the Office for Research Evaluation in 2013. The Office’s primary objective is management of research evaluation of science projects. The standards to conduct the evaluation are defined as follows: - The exercise of the process approach, the unification of the functioning of department. - The uniformity of regulatory, organizational and methodological framework. - The development of proper on-line evaluation system. - The broad involvement of external Russian and international experts, the renouncement of the usage of own employees. - The development of an algorithm to make a correspondence between experts and science projects. - The methodical usage of opened/closed international and Russian databases to extend the expert database. - The transparency of evaluation results – free access to assessment while keeping experts confidentiality. The management of research evaluation of projects is based on the sole standard, organization and financing. The standard way of conducting research evaluation at HSE is based upon Regulations on basic principles for research evaluation at HSE. These Regulations have been developed from the moment of establishment of the Office for Research Evaluation and are based on conventional corporate standards for regulatory document management. The management system of research evaluation is implemented on the process approach basis. Process approach means deployment of work as a process, which is the aggregation of interrelated and interacting activities processing inputs into outputs. Inputs are firstly client asking for the assessment to be conducted, defining the conditions for organizing and carrying of the assessment and secondly the applicant with proper for the competition application; output is assessment given to the client. While exercising process approach to clarify interrelation and interacting main parties or subjects of the assessment are determined and the way for interaction between them forms up. Parties to expert assessment are: - Ordering Party – The department of the university taking the decision to subject a project to expert assessment; - Providing Party – The department of the university authorized to provide such assessment by the Ordering Party; - Performing Party – The legal and natural entities that have expertise in the area of research evaluation. Experts assess projects in accordance with criteria and states of expert opinions approved by the Ordering Party. Objects of assessment generally are applications or HSE competition project reports. Mainly assessments are deployed for internal needs, i.e. the most ordering parties are HSE branches and departments, but assessment can also be conducted for external clients. The financing of research evaluation at HSE is based on the established corporate culture and traditions of HSE.

Keywords: expert assessment, management of research evaluation, process approach, research evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
4684 Reading Knowledge Development and Its Phases with Generation Z

Authors: Onur Özdemir, M.Erhan ORHAN

Abstract:

Knowledge Development (KD) is just one of the important phases of Knowledge Management (KM). KD is the phase in which intelligence is used to see the big picture. In order to understand whether information is important or not, we have to use the intelligence cycle that includes four main steps: aiming, collecting data, processing and utilizing. KD also needs these steps. To make a precise decision, the decision maker has to be aware of his subordinates’ ideas. If the decision maker ignores the ideas of his subordinates or participants of the organization, it is not possible for him to get the target. KD is a way of using wisdom to accumulate the puzzle. If the decision maker does not bring together the puzzle pieces, he cannot get the big picture, and this shows its effects on the battlefield. In order to understand the battlefield, the decision maker has to use the intelligence cycle. To convert information to knowledge, KD is the main means for the intelligence cycle. On the other hand, the “Z Generation” born after the millennium are really the game changers. They have different attitudes from their elders. Their understanding of life is different - the definition of freedom and independence have different meanings to them than others. Decision makers have to consider these factors and rethink their decisions accordingly. This article tries to explain the relation between KD and Generation Z. KD is the main method of target managing. But if leaders neglect their people, the world will be seeing much more movements like the Arab Spring and other insurgencies.

Keywords: knowledge development, knowledge management, generation Z, intelligence cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 487
4683 The Impact of COVID-19 Measures on Children with Disabilities and Their Families in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Faris Algahtani

Abstract:

The COVID 19 pandemic and associated public health measures have disrupted the lives of peoplearound the world, including children. There is little knowledge about how pandemic measures have affected children in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The aim and objectives of this qualitative study was to learn about the outcomes and impacts of the pandemic on children ages 0-8 in KSA. The study was based on 40 in-depth interviews that were conducted with experts in health, social protection, education, and early learning, children with special needs, and economics, including decision makers as well as specialists in service provision. The interviews were recorded and translated from Arabic to English into summary notes. The narrative was coded and analyzed following a thematic analysis.

Keywords: disabilities, COVID-19, families, children

Procedia PDF Downloads 182
4682 Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions Towards Agrivoltaics Using Decision Tree Algorithms

Authors: Mayuri Roy Choudhury

Abstract:

In recent times the concept of agrivoltaics has gained popularity due to the dual use of land and the added value provided by photovoltaics in terms of renewable energy and crop production on farms. However, the transition towards agrivoltaics has been slow, and our research tries to investigate the obstacles leading towards the slow progress of agrivoltaics. We applied data science decision tree algorithms to quantify qualitative perceptions of farmers in the United States for agrivoltaics. To date, there has not been much research that mentions farmers' perceptions, as most of the research focuses on the benefits of agrivoltaics. Our study adds value by putting forward the voices of farmers, which play a crucial towards the transition to agrivoltaics in the future. Our results show a mixture of responses in favor of agrivoltaics. Furthermore, it also portrays significant concerns of farmers, which is useful for decision-makers when it comes to formulating policies for agrivoltaics.

Keywords: agrivoltaics, decision-tree algorithms, farmers perception, transition

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4681 Free Will and Compatibilism in Decision Theory: A Solution to Newcomb’s Paradox

Authors: Sally Heyeon Hwang

Abstract:

Within decision theory, there are normative principles that dictate how one should act in addition to empirical theories of actual behavior. As a normative guide to one’s actual behavior, evidential or causal decision-theoretic equations allow one to identify outcomes with maximal utility values. The choice that each person makes, however, will, of course, differ according to varying assignments of weight and probability values. Regarding these different choices, it remains a subject of considerable philosophical controversy whether individual subjects have the capacity to exercise free will with respect to the assignment of probabilities, or whether instead the assignment is in some way constrained. A version of this question is given a precise form in Richard Jeffrey’s assumption that free will is necessary for Newcomb’s paradox to count as a decision problem. This paper will argue, against Jeffrey, that decision theory does not require the assumption of libertarian freedom. One of the hallmarks of decision-making is its application across a wide variety of contexts; the implications of a background assumption of free will is similarly varied. One constant across the contexts of decision is that there are always at least two levels of choice for a given agent, depending on the degree of prior constraint. Within the context of Newcomb’s problem, when the predictor is attempting to guess the choice the agent will make, he or she is analyzing the determined aspects of the agent such as past characteristics, experiences, and knowledge. On the other hand, as David Lewis’ backtracking argument concerning the relationship between past and present events brings to light, there are similarly varied ways in which the past can actually be dependent on the present. One implication of this argument is that even in deterministic settings, an agent can have more free will than it may seem. This paper will thus argue against the view that a stable background assumption of free will or determinism in decision theory is necessary, arguing instead for a compatibilist decision theory yielding a novel treatment of Newcomb’s problem.

Keywords: decision theory, compatibilism, free will, Newcomb’s problem

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4680 Integrating Time-Series and High-Spatial Remote Sensing Data Based on Multilevel Decision Fusion

Authors: Xudong Guan, Ainong Li, Gaohuan Liu, Chong Huang, Wei Zhao

Abstract:

Due to the low spatial resolution of MODIS data, the accuracy of small-area plaque extraction with a high degree of landscape fragmentation is greatly limited. To this end, the study combines Landsat data with higher spatial resolution and MODIS data with higher temporal resolution for decision-level fusion. Considering the importance of the land heterogeneity factor in the fusion process, it is superimposed with the weighting factor, which is to linearly weight the Landsat classification result and the MOIDS classification result. Three levels were used to complete the process of data fusion, that is the pixel of MODIS data, the pixel of Landsat data, and objects level that connect between these two levels. The multilevel decision fusion scheme was tested in two sites of the lower Mekong basin. We put forth a comparison test, and it was proved that the classification accuracy was improved compared with the single data source classification results in terms of the overall accuracy. The method was also compared with the two-level combination results and a weighted sum decision rule-based approach. The decision fusion scheme is extensible to other multi-resolution data decision fusion applications.

Keywords: image classification, decision fusion, multi-temporal, remote sensing

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4679 The Effect of Career Decision Self Efficacy on Coping with Career Indecision among Young Adults

Authors: Yuliya Lipshits-Braziler

Abstract:

For many young adults, career decision making is a difficult and complex process that may lead to indecision. Indecision is frequently associated with great psychological distress and low levels of well-being. One important resource for dealing with indecision is career decision self-efficacy (CDSE), which refers to people’s beliefs about their ability to successfully accomplish certain tasks involved in career choice. Drawing from Social Cognitive Theory, it has been hypothesized that CDSE correlates with (a) people’s likelihood to engage in or avoid career decision making tasks, (b) the amount of effort put into the decision making process, (c) the people’s persistence in decision making efforts when faced with difficulties, and (d) the eventual success in arriving at career decisions. Based on these assumptions, the present study examines the associations between the CDSE and 14 strategies for coping with career indecision among young adults. Using the structural equation modeling (SEM), the results showed that CDSE is positively associated with the use of productive coping strategies, such as information-seeking, problem-solving, positive thinking, and self-regulation. In addition, CDSE was negatively associated with nonproductive coping strategies, such as avoidance, isolation, ruminative thinking, and blaming others. Contrary to our expectations, CDSE was not significantly correlated with instrumental help-seeking, while it was negatively correlated with emotional help-seeking. The results of this study can be used to facilitate the development of interventions aiming to reinforce young adults’ career decision making self-efficacy, which may provide them with a basis for overcoming career indecision more effectively.

Keywords: career decision self-efficacy, career indecision, coping strategies, career counseling

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4678 Credible Autopsy Report for Investigators and Judiciary

Authors: Sudhir K. Gupta

Abstract:

Introduction: When a forensic doctor determines that a suspicious death is a suicide, homicide, or accident, the decision virtually becomes incontestable by the investigating police officer, and it becomes an issue whether the medical opinion was created with necessary checks and balances on the other probabilities of the case. It is suggested that the opinion of Forensic Medical experts is conventional, mutable, and shifting from one expert to another. The determination of suicide, accident, or homicide is mandatorily required, which is the Gold Standard for conducting death investigations. Forensic investigations serve many audiences, but the court is by far the most critical. The likely questions on direct and cross-examination determine how forensic doctors gather and handle evidence and what conclusions they reach. Methodology: The author interacted with the investigative authority, and a crime scene visit was also done along with the perusal of the Postmortem report, subsequent opinion, and crime scene photographs and statements of the witness and accused. Further analysis of all relevant scientific documents and opinions of other forensic doctors, forensic scientists, and ballistic experts involved in these cases was done to arrive at an opinion with scientific justification. Findings: The opinions arrived at by the author and how they helped the judiciary in delivering justice in these cases have been discussed in this article. This can help the readers to understand the process involved in formulating a credible forensic medical expert opinion for investigators and the judiciary. Conclusion: A criminal case might be won or lost over doubt cast on the chain of custody. Medically trained forensic doctors, therefore, learn to practice their profession in legally appropriate ways, and opinions must be based on medical justifications with credible references.

Keywords: forensic doctor, professional credibility, investigation, expert opinion

Procedia PDF Downloads 46
4677 Cerebral Toxoplasmosis: A Histopathological Diagnosis

Authors: Prateek Rastogi, Jenash Acharya

Abstract:

Histopathology examination has been a boon to forensic experts all around the world since its implication in autopsy cases. Whenever a case of sudden death is encountered, forensic experts clandestinely focus on cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal or cranio-cerebral causes. After ruling out poisoning or trauma, they are left with the only option available, histopathology examination. Besides preserving thoracic and abdominal organs, brain tissues are very less frequently subjected for the analysis. Based on provisional diagnosis documented on hospital treatment record files, one hemisphere of grossly unremarkable cerebrum was confirmatively diagnosed by histopathology examination to be a case of cerebral toxoplasmosis.

Keywords: cerebral toxoplasmosis, sudden death, health information, histopathology

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4676 Group Decision Making through Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Soft Set TOPSIS Method Using New Hybrid Score Function

Authors: Syed Talib Abbas Raza, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Saleem Abdullah

Abstract:

This paper presents interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets based TOPSIS method for group decision making. The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy soft set is a mutation of an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set and soft set. In group decision making problems IVIFSS makes the process much more algebraically elegant. We have used weighted arithmetic averaging operator for aggregating the information and define a new Hybrid Score Function as metric tool for comparison between interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy values. In an illustrative example we have applied the developed method to a criminological problem. We have developed a group decision making model for integrating the imprecise and hesitant evaluations of multiple law enforcement agencies working on target killing cases in the country.

Keywords: group decision making, interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy soft set, TOPSIS, score function, criminology

Procedia PDF Downloads 559
4675 Selecting The Contractor using Multi Criteria Decision Making in National Gas Company of Lorestan Province of Iran

Authors: Fatemeh Jaferi, Moslem Parsa, Heshmatolah Shams Khorramabadi

Abstract:

In this modern fluctuating world, organizations need to outsource some parts of their activities (project) to providers in order to show a quick response to their changing requirements. In fact, a number of companies and institutes have contractors do their projects and have some specific criteria in contractor selection. Therefore, a set of scientific tools is needed to select the best contractors to execute the project according to appropriate criteria. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) has been employed in the present study as a powerful tool in ranking and selecting the appropriate contractor. In this study, devolving second-source (civil) project to contractors in the National Gas Company of Lorestan Province (Iran) has been found and therefore, 5 civil companies have been evaluated. Evaluation criteria include executive experience, qualification of technical staff, good experience and company's rate, technical interview, affordability, equipment and machinery. Criteria's weights are found through experts' opinions along with AHP and contractors ranked through TOPSIS and AHP. The order of ranking contractors based on MCDM methods differs by changing the formula in the study. In the next phase, the number of criteria and their weights has been sensitivity analysed through using AHP. Adding each criterion changed contractors' ranking. Similarly, changing weights resulted in a change in ranking. Adopting the stated strategy resulted in the facts that not only is an appropriate scientific method available to select the most qualified contractors to execute gas project, but also a great attention is paid to picking needed criteria for selecting contractors. Consequently, executing such project is undertaken by most qualified contractors resulted in optimum use of limited resource, accelerating the implementation of project, increasing quality and finally boosting organizational efficiency.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision making, project, management, contractor selection, gas company

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
4674 Personality as a Determinant of Career Decision-Making Difficulties in a Higher Educational Institution in Ghana

Authors: Gladys Maame Akua Setordzie

Abstract:

Decision on one’s future career is said to have both beneficial and detrimental effects on one’s mental health, social and economic standing later in life, making it an important developmental problem for young people. In this light, the study’s overarching goal was to assess how different personality traits serve as a determinant of career decision-making difficulties experienced by university students in Ghana. Specifically, for the purpose of shaping the future of individualized career counselling support, the study investigated whether the “Big Five” personality traits influenced the difficulties students at the University of Ghana encounter while making career decisions. Cross-sectional survey design using a stratified random sampling technique, sampled 494 undergraduate students from the University of Ghana, who completed the Big Five Questionnaire and the Career Decision-making Difficulties Questionnaire. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that neuroticism, consciousness, and openness, accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in career decision-making difficulties. This study provides empirical evidence to support the idea that neuroticism is not necessarily a negative emotion when it comes to career decisionmaking, as has been suggested in previous studies, but rather it allows students to perform better in career decision-making. These results suggests that personality traits play a significant role in the career decision-making process of students of the University of Ghana. Therefore, a better understanding of how different personal and interpersonal factors impact career indecision in students could help career counsellors develop more focused vocational and career guidance interventions.

Keywords: career decision-making difficulties, dysfunctional career beliefs, personality traits, young people

Procedia PDF Downloads 62
4673 Evalution of the Impact on Improvement of Bank Manager Decision Making

Authors: Farzane Sadatnia, Bahram Fathi

Abstract:

Today, all public and private organizations have found that the management of the world for key information related to the activities of a staff and its main essence and philosophy, though they constitute the management information systems are very helpful in this respect the right to apply systems can save a lot in terms of economic organizations including reducing the time decision - making, improve the quality of decision making, and cost savings to bring information systems is a backup system that can never be instead of logic and human reasoning, which can be used in the series is spreading, providing resources, and provide the necessary facilities, provide better services for users, balanced budget allocation, determine strengths and weaknesses and previous plans to review the current decisions and especially the decision . Hence; in this study attempts to the effect of an information system on a review of the organization.

Keywords: information system, planning, organization, coordination, control

Procedia PDF Downloads 445