Search results for: cumulative distribution function
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9524

Search results for: cumulative distribution function

9494 Occupational Cumulative Effective Doses of Radiation Workers in Hamad Medical Corporation in Qatar

Authors: Omar Bobes, Abeer Al-Attar, Mohammad Hassan Kharita, Huda Al-Naemi

Abstract:

The number of radiological examinations has increased steadily in recent years. As a result, the risk of possible radiation-induced consequential damage also increases through continuous, lifelong, and increasing exposure to ionizing radiation. Therefore, radiation dose monitoring in medicine became an essential element of medical practice. In this study, the occupational cumulative doses for radiation workers in Hamad medical corporation in Qatar have been assessed for a period of five years. The number of monitored workers selected for this study was 555 (out of a total of 1250 monitored workers) who have been working continuously -with no interruption- with ionizing radiation over the past five years from 2015 to 2019. The aim of this work is to examine the occupational groups and the activities where the higher radiation exposure occurred and in what order of magnitude. The most exposed group was the nuclear medicine technologist staff, with an average cumulative dose of 8.4 mSv. The highest individual cumulative dose was 9.8 mSv recorded for the PET-CT technologist category.

Keywords: cumulative dose, effective dose, monitoring, occupational exposure, dosimetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 210
9493 Exploring the Energy Model of Cumulative Grief

Authors: Masica Jordan Alston, Angela N. Bullock, Angela S. Henderson, Stephanie Strianse, Sade Dunn, Joseph Hackett, Alaysia Black Hackett, Marcus Mason

Abstract:

The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was created in 2018. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief utilizes historic models of grief stage theories. The innovative model is additionally unique due to its focus on cultural responsiveness. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief helps to train practitioners who work with clients dealing with grief and loss. This paper assists in introducing the world to this innovative model and exploring how this model positively impacted a convenience sample of 140 practitioners and individuals experiencing grief and loss. Respondents participated in Webinars provided by the National Grief and Loss Center of America (NGLCA). Participants in this cross-sectional research design study completed one of three Grief and Loss Surveys created by the Grief and Loss Centers of America. Data analysis for this study was conducted via SPSS and Survey Hero to examine survey results for respondents. Results indicate that the Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was an effective resource for participants in addressing grief and loss. The majority of participants found the Webinars to be helpful and a conduit to providing them with higher levels of hope. The findings suggest that using The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief is effective in providing culturally responsive grief and loss resources to practitioners and clients. There are far reaching implications with the use of technology to provide hope to those suffering from grief and loss worldwide through The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief.

Keywords: grief, loss, grief energy, grieving brain

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
9492 Implementation of the Recursive Formula for Evaluation of the Strength of Daniels' Bundle

Authors: Vaclav Sadilek, Miroslav Vorechovsky

Abstract:

The paper deals with the classical fiber bundle model of equal load sharing, sometimes referred to as the Daniels' bundle or the democratic bundle. Daniels formulated a multidimensional integral and also a recursive formula for evaluation of the strength cumulative distribution function. This paper describes three algorithms for evaluation of the recursive formula and also their implementations with source codes in high-level programming language Python. A comparison of the algorithms are provided with respect to execution time. Analysis of orders of magnitudes of addends in the recursion is also provided.

Keywords: equal load sharing, mpmath, python, strength of Daniels' bundle

Procedia PDF Downloads 377
9491 Wireless Sensor Network for Forest Fire Detection and Localization

Authors: Tarek Dandashi

Abstract:

WSNs may provide a fast and reliable solution for the early detection of environment events like forest fires. This is crucial for alerting and calling for fire brigade intervention. Sensor nodes communicate sensor data to a host station, which enables a global analysis and the generation of a reliable decision on a potential fire and its location. A WSN with TinyOS and nesC for the capturing and transmission of a variety of sensor information with controlled source, data rates, duration, and the records/displaying activity traces is presented. We propose a similarity distance (SD) between the distribution of currently sensed data and that of a reference. At any given time, a fire causes diverging opinions in the reported data, which alters the usual data distribution. Basically, SD consists of a metric on the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF). SD is designed to be invariant versus day-to-day changes of temperature, changes due to the surrounding environment, and normal changes in weather, which preserve the data locality. Evaluation shows that SD sensitivity is quadratic versus an increase in sensor node temperature for a group of sensors of different sizes and neighborhood. Simulation of fire spreading when ignition is placed at random locations with some wind speed shows that SD takes a few minutes to reliably detect fires and locate them. We also discuss the case of false negative and false positive and their impact on the decision reliability.

Keywords: forest fire, WSN, wireless sensor network, algortihm

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
9490 Use of SUDOKU Design to Assess the Implications of the Block Size and Testing Order on Efficiency and Precision of Dulce De Leche Preference Estimation

Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

Abstract:

This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

Procedia PDF Downloads 295
9489 A Study of Microglitches in Hartebeesthoek Radio Pulsars

Authors: Onuchukwu Chika Christian, Chukwude Augustine Ejike

Abstract:

We carried out a statistical analyse of microglitches events on a sample of radio pulsars. The distribution of microglitch events in frequency (ν) and first frequency derivatives ν˙ indicates that the size of a microglitch and sign combinations of events in ν and ν˙ are purely randomized. Assuming that the probability of a given size of a microglitch event occurring scales inversely as the absolute size of the event in both ν and ν˙, we constructed a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the absolute sizes of microglitches. In most of the pulsars, the theoretical CDF matched the observed values. This is an indication that microglitches in pulsar may be interpreted as an avalanche process in which angular momentum is transferred erratically from the flywheel-like superfliud interior to the slowly decelerating solid crust. Analysis of the waiting time indicates that it is purely Poisson distributed with mean microglitch rate <γ> ∼ 0.98year^−1 for all the pulsars in our sample and <γ> / <∆T> ∼ 1. Correlation analysis, showed that the relative absolute size of microglitch event strongly with the rotation period of the pulsar with correlation coefficient r ∼ 0.7 and r ∼ 0.5 respectively for events in ν and ν˙. The mean glitch rate and number of microglitches (Ng) showed some dependence on spin down rate (r ∼ −0.6) and the characteristic age of the pulsar (τ) with (r ∼ −0.4/− 0.5).

Keywords: method-data analysis, star, neutron-pulsar, general

Procedia PDF Downloads 428
9488 On Generalized Cumulative Past Inaccuracy Measure for Marginal and Conditional Lifetimes

Authors: Amit Ghosh, Chanchal Kundu

Abstract:

Recently, the notion of past cumulative inaccuracy (CPI) measure has been proposed in the literature as a generalization of cumulative past entropy (CPE) in univariate as well as bivariate setup. In this paper, we introduce the notion of CPI of order α (alpha) and study the proposed measure for conditionally specified models of two components failed at different time instants called generalized conditional CPI (GCCPI). We provide some bounds using usual stochastic order and investigate several properties of GCCPI. The effect of monotone transformation on this proposed measure has also been examined. Furthermore, we characterize some bivariate distributions under the assumption of conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model. Moreover, the role of GCCPI in reliability modeling has also been investigated for a real-life problem.

Keywords: cumulative past inaccuracy, marginal and conditional past lifetimes, conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model, usual stochastic order

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9487 First Order Moment Bounds on DMRL and IMRL Classes of Life Distributions

Authors: Debasis Sengupta, Sudipta Das

Abstract:

The class of life distributions with decreasing mean residual life (DMRL) is well known in the field of reliability modeling. It contains the IFR class of distributions and is contained in the NBUE class of distributions. While upper and lower bounds of the reliability distribution function of aging classes such as IFR, IFRA, NBU, NBUE, and HNBUE have discussed in the literature for a long time, there is no analogous result available for the DMRL class. We obtain the upper and lower bounds for the reliability function of the DMRL class in terms of first order finite moment. The lower bound is obtained by showing that for any fixed time, the minimization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean is equivalent to its minimization over a smaller class of distribution with a special form. Optimization over this restricted set can be made algebraically. Likewise, the maximization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean turns out to be a parametric optimization problem over the class of DMRL distributions of a special form. The constructive proofs also establish that both the upper and lower bounds are sharp. Further, the DMRL upper bound coincides with the HNBUE upper bound and the lower bound coincides with the IFR lower bound. We also prove that a pair of sharp upper and lower bounds for the reliability function when the distribution is increasing mean residual life (IMRL) with a fixed mean. This result is proved in a similar way. These inequalities fill a long-standing void in the literature of the life distribution modeling.

Keywords: DMRL, IMRL, reliability bounds, hazard functions

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9486 Comparison of Wind Fragility for Window System in the Simplified 10 and 15-Story Building Considering Exposure Category

Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

Window system in high rise building is occasionally subjected to an excessive wind intensity, particularly during typhoon. The failure of window system did not affect overall safety of structural performance; however, it could endanger the safety of the residents. In this paper, comparison of fragility curves for window system of two residential buildings was studied. The probability of failure for individual window was determined with Monte Carlo Simulation method. Then, lognormal cumulative distribution function was used to represent the fragility. The results showed that windows located on the edge of leeward wall were more susceptible to wind load and the probability of failure for each window panel increased at higher floors.

Keywords: wind fragility, window system, high rise building, wind disaster

Procedia PDF Downloads 292
9485 Characteristic Function in Estimation of Probability Distribution Moments

Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

Abstract:

In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique, author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 466
9484 Effect of Progressive Type-I Right Censoring on Bayesian Statistical Inference of Simple Step–Stress Acceleration Life Testing Plan under Weibull Life Distribution

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the PTH percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: reliability, accelerated life testing, cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, progressive type-I censoring, Weibull distribution

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9483 On Modeling Data Sets by Means of a Modified Saddlepoint Approximation

Authors: Serge B. Provost, Yishan Zhang

Abstract:

A moment-based adjustment to the saddlepoint approximation is introduced in the context of density estimation. First applied to univariate distributions, this methodology is extended to the bivariate case. It then entails estimating the density function associated with each marginal distribution by means of the saddlepoint approximation and applying a bivariate adjustment to the product of the resulting density estimates. The connection to the distribution of empirical copulas will be pointed out. As well, a novel approach is proposed for estimating the support of distribution. As these results solely rely on sample moments and empirical cumulant-generating functions, they are particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets. Several illustrative applications will be presented.

Keywords: empirical cumulant-generating function, endpoints identification, saddlepoint approximation, sample moments, density estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
9482 Novel Inference Algorithm for Gaussian Process Classification Model with Multiclass and Its Application to Human Action Classification

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel inference algorithm for the multi-class Gaussian process classification model that can be used in the field of human behavior recognition. This algorithm can drive simultaneously both a posterior distribution of a latent function and estimators of hyper-parameters in a Gaussian process classification model with multi-class. Our algorithm is based on the Laplace approximation (LA) technique and variational EM framework. This is performed in two steps: called expectation and maximization steps. First, in the expectation step, using the Bayesian formula and LA technique, we derive approximately the posterior distribution of the latent function indicating the possibility that each observation belongs to a certain class in the Gaussian process classification model. Second, in the maximization step, using a derived posterior distribution of latent function, we compute the maximum likelihood estimator for hyper-parameters of a covariance matrix necessary to define prior distribution for latent function. These two steps iteratively repeat until a convergence condition satisfies. Moreover, we apply the proposed algorithm with human action classification problem using a public database, namely, the KTH human action data set. Experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm shows good performance on this data set.

Keywords: bayesian rule, gaussian process classification model with multiclass, gaussian process prior, human action classification, laplace approximation, variational EM algorithm

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9481 Recurrent Neural Networks for Complex Survival Models

Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun

Abstract:

Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.

Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
9480 Statistical Characteristics of Distribution of Radiation-Induced Defects under Random Generation

Authors: P. Selyshchev

Abstract:

We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations

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9479 Dividend Initiations and IPO Long-Run Performance

Authors: Nithi Sermsiriviboon, Somchai Supattarakul

Abstract:

Dividend initiations are an economically significant event that has important implications for a firm’s future financial capacity. Given that the market’s expectation of a consistent payout, managers of IPO firms must approach the initial dividend decision cautiously. We compare the long run performance of IPO firms that initiated dividends with those of similarly matched non-payers. We found that firms which initiated dividends perform significantly better up to three years after the initiation date. Moreover, we measure investor reactions by 2-day around dividend announcement date cumulative abnormal return. We evidence no statistically significant differences between cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of IPO firms and cumulative abnormal returns of Non-IPO firms, indicating that investors do not respond to dividend announcement of IPO firms more than they do to the dividend announcement of Non-IPO firms.

Keywords: dividend, initial public offerings, long-run performance, finance

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9478 A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Goodness-Of-Fit Test of Multinomial Logistic Regression Model in Case-Control Studies

Authors: Chen Li-Ching

Abstract:

The multinomial logistic regression model is used popularly for inferring the relationship of risk factors and disease with multiple categories. This study based on the discrepancy between the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the cumulative distribution function to propose a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test statistic to assess adequacy of the multinomial logistic regression model for case-control data. A bootstrap procedure is presented to calculate the critical value of the proposed test statistic. Empirical type I error rates and powers of the test are performed by simulation studies. Some examples will be illustrated the implementation of the test.

Keywords: case-control studies, goodness-of-fit test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, multinomial logistic regression

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9477 Temperature Dependent Interaction Energies among X (=Ru, Rh) Impurities in Pd-Rich PdX Alloys

Authors: M. Asato, C. Liu, N. Fujima, T. Hoshino, Y. Chen, T. Mohri

Abstract:

We study the temperature dependence of the interaction energies (IEs) of X (=Ru, Rh) impurities in Pd, due to the Fermi-Dirac (FD) distribution and the thermal vibration effect by the Debye-Grüneisen model. The n-body (n=2~4) IEs among X impurities in Pd, being used to calculate the internal energies in the free energies of the Pd-rich PdX alloys, are determined uniquely and successively from the lower-order to higher-order, by the full-potential Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker Green’s function method (FPKKR), combined with the generalized gradient approximation in the density functional theory. We found that the temperature dependence of IEs due to the FD distribution, being usually neglected, is very important to reproduce the X-concentration dependence of the observed solvus temperatures of the Pd-rich PdX (X=Ru, Rh) alloys.

Keywords: full-potential KKR-green’s function method, Fermi-Dirac distribution, GGA, phase diagram of Pd-rich PdX (X=Ru, Rh) alloys, thermal vibration effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
9476 A Stochastic Diffusion Process Based on the Two-Parameters Weibull Density Function

Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

Abstract:

Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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9475 Classical and Bayesian Inference of the Generalized Log-Logistic Distribution with Applications to Survival Data

Authors: Abdisalam Hassan Muse, Samuel Mwalili, Oscar Ngesa

Abstract:

A generalized log-logistic distribution with variable shapes of the hazard rate was introduced and studied, extending the log-logistic distribution by adding an extra parameter to the classical distribution, leading to greater flexibility in analysing and modeling various data types. The proposed distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as; Weibull, log-logistic, exponential, and Burr XII distributions. Its basic mathematical and statistical properties were derived. The method of maximum likelihood was adopted for estimating the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the behavior of the estimators. The importance of this distribution is that its tendency to model both monotone (increasing and decreasing) and non-monotone (unimodal and bathtub shape) or reversed “bathtub” shape hazard rate functions which are quite common in survival and reliability data analysis. Furthermore, the flexibility and usefulness of the proposed distribution are illustrated in a real-life data set and compared to its sub-models; Weibull, log-logistic, and BurrXII distributions and other parametric survival distributions with 3-parmaeters; like the exponentiated Weibull distribution, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution, the 3- parameter gamma distribution, the 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the 3-parameter log-logistic (also known as shifted log-logistic) distribution. The proposed distribution provided a better fit than all of the competitive distributions based on the goodness-of-fit tests, the log-likelihood, and information criterion values. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the data set are also carried out.

Keywords: hazard rate function, log-logistic distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized log-logistic distribution, survival data, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 168
9474 A Proposed Mechanism for Skewing Symmetric Distributions

Authors: M. T. Alodat

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a mechanism for skewing any symmetric distribution. The new distribution is called the deflation-inflation distribution (DID). We discuss some statistical properties of the DID such moments, stochastic representation, log-concavity. Also we fit the distribution to real data and we compare it to normal distribution and Azzlaini's skew normal distribution. Numerical results show that the DID fits the the tree ring data better than the other two distributions.

Keywords: normal distribution, moments, Fisher information, symmetric distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 631
9473 A Unification and Relativistic Correction for Boltzmann’s Law

Authors: Lloyd G. Allred

Abstract:

The distribution of velocities of particles in plasma is a well understood discipline of plasma physics. Boltzmann’s law and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution describe the distribution of velocity of a particle in plasma as a function of mass and temperature. Particles with the same mass tend to have the same velocity. By expressing the same law in terms of energy alone, the author obtains a distribution independent of mass. In summary, for particles in plasma, the energies tend to equalize, independent of the masses of the individual particles. For high-energy plasma, the original law predicts velocities greater than the speed of light. If one uses Einstein’s formula for energy (E=mc2), then a relativistic correction is not required.

Keywords: cosmology, EMP, plasma physics, relativity

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
9472 Software Reliability Prediction Model Analysis

Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 438
9471 Variations in the Frequency-Magnitude Distribution with Depth in Kalabsha Area, Aswan, South Egypt

Authors: Ezzat Mohamed El-Amin

Abstract:

Mapping the earthquake-size distribution in various tectonic regimes on a local to regional scale reveals statistically significant variations in the range of at least 0.4 to 2.0 for the b-value in the frequency-magnitude distribution. We map the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution (b value) as a function of depth in the Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS) region in Kalabsha region, in south Egypt. About 1680 well-located events recorded during 1981–2014 in the Kalabsha region are selected for the analysis. The earthquake data sets are separated in 5 km zones from 0 to 25 km depth. The result shows a systematic decrease in b value up to 12 km followed by an increase. The increase in b value is interpreted to be caused by the presence of fluids. We also investigate the spatial distribution of b value with depth. Significant variations in the b value are detected, with b ranging from b 0.7 to 1.19. Low b value areas at 5 km depth indicate localized high stresses which are favorable for future rupture.

Keywords: seismicity, frequency-magnitude, b-value, earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 537
9470 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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9469 Optimal Replacement Period for a One-Unit System with Double Repair Cost Limits

Authors: Min-Tsai Lai, Taqwa Hariguna

Abstract:

This paper presents a periodical replacement model for a system, considering the concept of single and cumulative repair cost limits simultaneously. The failures are divided into two types. Minor failure can be corrected by minimal repair and serious failure makes the system breakdown completely. When a minor failure occurs, if the repair cost is less than a single repair cost limit L1 and the accumulated repair cost is less than a cumulative repair cost limit L2, then minimal repair is executed, otherwise, the system is preventively replaced. The system is also replaced at time T or at serious failure. The optimal period T minimizing the long-run expected cost per unit time is verified to be finite and unique under some specific conditions.

Keywords: repair-cost limit, cumulative repair-cost limit, minimal repair, periodical replacement policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 337
9468 The Effect of Soil Surface Slope on Splash Distribution under Water Drop Impact

Authors: H. Aissa, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

The effects of down slope steepness on soil splash distribution under a water drop impact have been investigated in this study. The equipment used are the burette to simulate a water drop, a splash cup filled with sandy soil which forms the source area and a splash board to collect the ejected particles. The results found in this study have shown that the apparent mass increased with increasing downslope angle following a linear regression equation with high coefficient of determination. In the same way, the radial soil splash distribution over the distance has been analyzed statistically, and an exponential function was the best fit of the relationship for the different slope angles. The curves and the regressions equations validate the well known FSDF and extend the theory of Van Dijk.

Keywords: splash distribution, water drop, slope steepness, soil detachment

Procedia PDF Downloads 304
9467 Estimation of Particle Size Distribution Using Magnetization Data

Authors: Navneet Kaur, S. D. Tiwari

Abstract:

Magnetic nanoparticles possess fascinating properties which make their behavior unique in comparison to corresponding bulk materials. Superparamagnetism is one such interesting phenomenon exhibited only by small particles of magnetic materials. In this state, the thermal energy of particles become more than their magnetic anisotropy energy, and so particle magnetic moment vectors fluctuate between states of minimum energy. This situation is similar to paramagnetism of non-interacting ions and termed as superparamagnetism. The magnetization of such systems has been described by Langevin function. But, the estimated fit parameters, in this case, are found to be unphysical. It is due to non-consideration of particle size distribution. In this work, analysis of magnetization data on NiO nanoparticles is presented considering the effect of particle size distribution. Nanoparticles of NiO of two different sizes are prepared by heating freshly synthesized Ni(OH)₂ at different temperatures. Room temperature X-ray diffraction patterns confirm the formation of single phase of NiO. The diffraction lines are seen to be quite broad indicating the nanocrystalline nature of the samples. The average crystallite size are estimated to be about 6 and 8 nm. The samples are also characterized by transmission electron microscope. Magnetization of both sample is measured as function of temperature and applied magnetic field. Zero field cooled and field cooled magnetization are measured as a function of temperature to determine the bifurcation temperature. The magnetization is also measured at several temperatures in superparamagnetic region. The data are fitted to an appropriate expression considering a distribution in particle size following a least square fit procedure. The computer codes are written in PYTHON. The presented analysis is found to be very useful for estimating the particle size distribution present in the samples. The estimated distributions are compared with those determined from transmission electron micrographs.

Keywords: anisotropy, magnetization, nanoparticles, superparamagnetism

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9466 Some Statistical Properties of Residual Sea Level along the Coast of Vietnam

Authors: Doan Van Chinh, Bui Thi Kien Trinh

Abstract:

This paper outlines some statistical properties of residual sea level (RSL) at six representative tidal stations located along the coast of Vietnam. It was found that the positive RSL varied on average between 9.82 and 19.96cm and the negative RSL varied on average between -16.62 and -9.02cm. The maximum positive RSL varied on average between 102.8 and 265.5cm with the maximum negative RSL varied on average between -250.4 and -66.4cm. It is seen that the biggest positive RSL ere appeared in the summer months and the biggest negative RSL ere appeared in the winter months. The cumulative frequency of RSL less than 50 cm occurred between 95 and 99% of the times while the frequency of RSL higher than 100 cm accounted for between 0.01 and 0.2%. It also was found that the cumulative frequency of duration of RSL less than 24 hours occurred between 90 and 99% while the frequency of duration longer than 72 hours was in the order of 0.1 and 1%.

Keywords: coast of Vietnam, residual sea level, residual water, surge, cumulative frequency

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9465 Bi-Objective Optimization for Sustainable Supply Chain Network Design in Omnichannel

Authors: Veerpaul Maan, Gaurav Mishra

Abstract:

The evolution of omnichannel has revolutionized the supply chain of the organizations by enhancing customer shopping experience. For these organizations need to develop well-integrated multiple distribution channels to leverage the benefits of omnichannel. To adopt an omnichannel system in the supply chain has resulted in structuring and reconfiguring the practices of the traditional supply chain distribution network. In this paper a multiple distribution supply chain network (MDSCN) have been proposed which integrates online giants with a local retailers distribution network in uncertain environment followed by sustainability. To incorporate sustainability, an additional objective function is added to reduce the carbon content through minimizing the travel distance of the product. Through this proposed model, customers are free to access product and services as per their choice of channels which increases their convenience, reach and satisfaction. Further, a numerical illustration is being shown along with interpretation of results to validate the proposed model.

Keywords: sustainable supply chain network, omnichannel, multiple distribution supply chain network, integrate multiple distribution channels

Procedia PDF Downloads 192