Search results for: conditional mean time to failure

Authors: Chaoyi Sun, Congxin Chen, Yun Zheng, Kaizong Xia, Wei Zhang

Abstract:

Crest loads are often encountered in hydropower, highway, open-pit and other engineering rock slopes. Toppling failure is one of the most common deformation failure types of anti-dip bedding rock slopes. Analysis on such failure of anti-dip bedding rock slopes subjected to crest loads has an important influence on engineering practice. Based on the step-by-step analysis approach proposed by Goodman and Bray, a geo-mechanical model was developed, and the related analysis approach was proposed for the toppling failure of anti-dip bedding rock slopes subjected to crest loads. Using the transfer coefficient method, a formulation was derived for calculating the residual thrust of slope toe and the support force required to meet the requirements of the slope stability under crest loads, which provided a scientific reference to design and support for such slopes. Through slope examples, the influence of crest loads on the residual thrust and sliding ratio coefficient was investigated for cases of different block widths and slope cut angles. The results show that there exists a critical block width for such slope. The influence of crest loads on the residual thrust is non-negligible when the block thickness is smaller than the critical value. Moreover, the influence of crest loads on the slope stability increases with the slope cut angle and the sliding ratio coefficient of anti-dip bedding rock slopes increases with the crest loads. Finally, the theoretical solutions and numerical simulations using Universal Distinct Element Code (UDEC) were compared, in which the consistent results show the applicability of both approaches.

Keywords: anti-dip bedding rock slope, crest loads, stability analysis, toppling failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Yan Zhang

Abstract:

Predictive maintenance is a technique to predict when an in-service machine will fail so that maintenance can be planned in advance. Analytics-driven predictive maintenance is gaining increasing attention in many industries such as manufacturing, utilities, aerospace, etc., along with the emerging demand of Internet of Things (IoT) applications and the maturity of technologies that support Big Data storage and processing. This study aims to build an end-to-end analytics solution that includes both real-time machine condition monitoring and machine learning based predictive analytics capabilities. The goal is to showcase a general predictive maintenance solution architecture, which suggests how the data generated from field machines can be collected, transmitted, stored, and analyzed. We use a publicly available aircraft engine run-to-failure dataset to illustrate the streaming analytics component and the batch failure prediction component. We outline the contributions of this study from four aspects. First, we compare the predictive maintenance problems from the view of the traditional reliability centered maintenance field, and from the view of the IoT applications. When evolving to the IoT era, predictive maintenance has shifted its focus from ensuring reliable machine operations to improve production/maintenance efficiency via any maintenance related tasks. It covers a variety of topics, including but not limited to: failure prediction, fault forecasting, failure detection and diagnosis, and recommendation of maintenance actions after failure. Second, we review the state-of-art technologies that enable a machine/device to transmit data all the way through the Cloud for storage and advanced analytics. These technologies vary drastically mainly based on the power source and functionality of the devices. For example, a consumer machine such as an elevator uses completely different data transmission protocols comparing to the sensor units in an environmental sensor network. The former may transfer data into the Cloud via WiFi directly. The latter usually uses radio communication inherent the network, and the data is stored in a staging data node before it can be transmitted into the Cloud when necessary. Third, we illustrate show to formulate a machine learning problem to predict machine fault/failures. By showing a step-by-step process of data labeling, feature engineering, model construction and evaluation, we share following experiences: (1) what are the specific data quality issues that have crucial impact on predictive maintenance use cases; (2) how to train and evaluate a model when training data contains inter-dependent records. Four, we review the tools available to build such a data pipeline that digests the data and produce insights. We show the tools we use including data injection, streaming data processing, machine learning model training, and the tool that coordinates/schedules different jobs. In addition, we show the visualization tool that creates rich data visualizations for both real-time insights and prediction results. To conclude, there are two key takeaways from this study. (1) It summarizes the landscape and challenges of predictive maintenance applications. (2) It takes an example in aerospace with publicly available data to illustrate each component in the proposed data pipeline and showcases how the solution can be deployed as a live demo.

Keywords: Internet of Things, machine learning, predictive maintenance, streaming data

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Abdelmounaim Zanaz, Sylvie Yotte, Fazia Fouchal, Alaa Chateauneuf

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode is the most reported mode, i.e. the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this assumption, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation CV. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the modulus variation of voussoirs is proposed. The failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each CV value as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of CV, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increase with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young modulus of the segments is proven, taken it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: Xiaohui Wang, Liwei Sun, Guilin Zhang

Abstract:

Printed circuit board (PCB) is the carrier of electronic components. Its coating is the first barrier for protecting itself. If the coating is damaged, the performance of printed circuit board will decrease rapidly until failure. Therefore, the coating plays an important role in the entire printed circuit board. There are common four kinds of coating of printed circuit board that the material of the coatings are paryleneC, acrylic, polyurethane, silicone. In this paper, we designed an accelerated degradation test of humid and heat for these four kinds of coating. And chose insulation resistance, moisture absorption and surface morphology as its test indexes. By comparing the change of insulation resistance of the coating before and after the test, we estimate failure time of these coatings based on the degradation of insulation resistance. Based on the above, we estimate the service life of the four kinds of PCB.

Keywords: printed circuit board, life assessment, insulation resistance, coating material

Procedia PDF Downloads 502

Authors: Chitaranjan Sharma

Abstract:

The present paper deals with the analysis of a fuel supply system in an automobile engine of a four wheeler which is having both the option of fuel i.e. PETROL and CNG. Since CNG is cheaper than petrol so the priority is given to consume CNG as compared to petrol. An automatic switch is used to start petrol supply at the time of failure of CNG supply. Using regenerative point technique with Markov renewal process, the reliability characteristics which are useful to system designers are obtained.

Keywords: reliability, redundancy, repair time, transition, probability, regenerative points, markov renewal, process

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: Haider Al-Zubaidy, Xiao-Ling Zhao, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

Abstract:

In recent years, the technique adhesively-bonded fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) composites has found its way into civil engineering applications and it has attracted a widespread attention as a viable alternative strategy for the retrofitting of civil infrastructure such as bridges and buildings. When adopting this method, adhesive has a significant role and controls the general performance and degree of enhancement of the strengthened and/or upgraded structures. This is because the ultimate member strength is highly affected by the failure mode which is considerably dependent on the utilised adhesive. This paper concerns with experimental investigations on the effect of the adhesive used on the bond between CFRP patch and steel plate under medium impact tensile loading. Experiment were conducted using double strap joints and these samples were prepared using two different types of adhesives, Araldite 420 and MBrace saturant. Drop mass rig was used to carry out dynamic tests at impact speeds of 3.35, 4.43 and m/s while quasi-static tests were implemented at 2mm/min using Instrone machine. In this test program, ultimate load-carrying capacity and failure modes were examined for all loading speeds. For both static and dynamic tests, the adhesive type has a significant effect on ultimate joint strength. It was found that the double strap joints prepared using Araldite 420 showed higher strength than those prepared utilising MBrace saturant adhesive. Failure mechanism for joints prepared using Araldite 420 is completely different from those samples prepared utilising MBrace saturant. CFRP failure is the most common failure pattern for joints with Araldite 420, whereas the dominant failure for joints with MBrace saturant adhesive is adhesive failure.

Keywords: CFRP/steel double strap joints, adhesives of different ductility, dynamic tensile loading, bond between CFRP and steel

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: Richard Colwell, Thomas Englert

Abstract:

In cryogenic liquefaction processes, brazed aluminum core heat exchangers are used to minimize surface area/volume of the exchanger. Aluminum alloy (5083-H321; UNS A95083) piping must transition to higher melting point 304L stainless steel piping outside of the heat exchanger kettle or cold box for safety reasons. Since aluminum alloys and austenitic stainless steel cannot be directly welded to together, a transition joint consisting of 5 layers of different metals explosively bonded are used. Failures of two of these joints resulted in process shut-down and loss of revenue. Failure analyses, FEA analysis, and mock-up testing were performed by multiple teams to gain a further understanding into the failure mechanisms involved.

Keywords: explosion bonding, intermetallic compound, thermal strain, titanium-nickel Interface

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Ramanpreet Kaur, Upasana Sharma

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to address the challenges facing the water supply for the Machine Learning Database (MLDB) system at the piston foundry plant. In the MLDB system, one main unit, i.e., robotic, is connected by two sub-units. The functioning of the system depends on the robotic and water supply. Lack of water supply causes system failure. The system operates at full capacity with the help of two sub-units. If one sub-unit fails, the system runs at a low capacity. Reliability modeling is performed using semi-Markov processes and regenerative point techniques. Several system effects such as mean time to system failure, availability at full capacity, availability at reduced capacity, busy period for repair and expected number of visits have been achieved. Benefits have been analyzed. The graphical study is designed for a specific case using programming in C++ and MS Excel.

Keywords: MLDB system, robotic, semi-Markov process, regenerative point technique

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Ning Gong, Michael Korostelev, Qiangguo Ren, Li Bai, Saroj K. Biswas, Frank Ferrese

Abstract:

This paper investigates the joint effect of the interconnected (n,k)-star network topology and Multi-Agent automated control on restoration and reconfiguration of power systems. With the increasing trend in development in Multi-Agent control technologies applied to power system reconfiguration in presence of faulty components or nodes. Fault tolerance is becoming an important challenge in the design processes of the distributed power system topology. Since the reconfiguration of a power system is performed by agent communication, the (n,k)-star interconnected network topology is studied and modeled in this paper to optimize the process of power reconfiguration. In this paper, we discuss the recently proposed (n,k)-star topology and examine its properties and advantages as compared to the traditional multi-bus power topologies. We design and simulate the topology model for distributed power system test cases. A related lemma based on the fault tolerance and conditional diagnosability properties is presented and proved both theoretically and practically. The conclusion is reached that (n,k)-star topology model has measurable advantages compared to standard bus power systems while exhibiting fault tolerance properties in power restoration, as well as showing efficiency when applied to power system route discovery.

Keywords: (n, k)-star topology, fault tolerance, conditional diagnosability, multi-agent system, automated power system

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Ning Gong, Michael Korostelev, Qiangguo Ren, Li Bai, Saroj Biswas, Frank Ferrese

Abstract:

This paper investigates the joint effect of the interconnected (n,k)-star network topology and Multi-Agent automated control on restoration and reconfiguration of power systems. With the increasing trend in development in Multi-Agent control technologies applied to power system reconfiguration in presence of faulty components or nodes. Fault tolerance is becoming an important challenge in the design processes of the distributed power system topology. Since the reconfiguration of a power system is performed by agent communication, the (n,k)-star interconnected network topology is studied and modeled in this paper to optimize the process of power reconfiguration. In this paper, we discuss the recently proposed (n,k)-star topology and examine its properties and advantages as compared to the traditional multi-bus power topologies. We design and simulate the topology model for distributed power system test cases. A related lemma based on the fault tolerance and conditional diagnosability properties is presented and proved both theoretically and practically. The conclusion is reached that (n,k)-star topology model has measurable advantages compared to standard bus power systems while exhibiting fault tolerance properties in power restoration, as well as showing efficiency when applied to power system route discovery.

Keywords: (n, k)-star topology, fault tolerance, conditional diagnosability, multi-agent system, automated power system

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Abdoullah Namdar, Fadzil Mat Yahaya

Abstract:

The waste agriculture materials cause environment pollution, recycle of these materials help sustainable development. This study focused on the impact of used oil palm shell ash on the compressive and flexural strengths of cement mortar. Two different cement mortar mixes have been designed to investigate the impact of oil palm shell ash on strengths of cement mortar. Quantity of 4% oil palm shell ash has been replaced in cement mortar. The main objective of this paper is, to modify mechanical properties of cement mortar by replacement of oil palm ash in it at early age of seven days. The results have been revealed optimum quantity of oil palm ash for replacement in cement mortar. The deflection, load to failure, time to failure of compressive strength and flexural strength of all specimens have significantly been improved. The stress-strain behavior has been indicated ability of modified cement mortar in control stress path and strain. The micro property of cement paste has not been investigated.

Keywords: minerals, additive, flexural strength, compressive strength, modulus of elasticity

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

Abstract:

This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: audit fee lagrange multiplier test, heteroscedasticity, lagrange multiplier test, Monte-Carlo scheme, periodicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Sang-Woo Kim, Young-Seon Lee

Abstract:

An important concern in metal forming, even at elevated temperatures, is whether a desired deformation can be accomplished without any failure of the material. A detailed understanding of the critical condition for crack initiation provides not only the workability limit of a material but also a guide-line for process design. This paper describes the utilization of ductile fracture criteria in conjunction with the finite element method (FEM) for predicting the onset of fracture in warm metal working processes of magnesium alloy sheets. Critical damage values for various ductile fracture criteria were determined from uniaxial tensile tests and were expressed as the function of strain rate and temperature. In order to find the best criterion for failure prediction, Erichsen cupping tests under isothermal conditions and FE simulations combined with ductile fracture criteria were carried out. Based on the plastic deformation histories obtained from the FE analyses of the Erichsen cupping tests and the critical damage value curves, the initiation time and location of fracture were predicted under a bi-axial tensile condition. The results were compared with experimental results and the best criterion was recommended. In addition, the proposed methodology was used to predict the onset of fracture in non-isothermal deep drawing processes using an irregular shaped blank, and the results were verified experimentally.

Keywords: magnesium, AZ31 alloy, ductile fracture, FEM, sheet forming, Erichsen cupping test

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Manel Youssef, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This paper employs multivariate long memory GARCH models to simultaneously estimate mean and conditional variance spillover effects between oil prices and different financial markets. Since different financial assets are traded based on these market sector returns, it’s important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism over time and across these series in order to make optimal portfolio allocation decisions. We examine weekly returns from January 1, 2003 to November 30, 2012 and find evidence of significant transmission of shocks and volatilities between oil prices and some of the examined financial markets. The findings support the idea of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by investors.

Keywords: oil prices, stock indices returns, oil volatility, contagion, DCC-multivariate (FI) GARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 501

Authors: Weigao. Wu, Stefano. Utili

Abstract:

Based on the kinematic approach of limit analysis, a full set of upper bound solutions for the stability of homogeneous rock slopes subjected to tension cracks are obtained. The generalized Hoek-Brown failure criterion is employed to describe the non-linear strength envelope of rocks. In this paper, critical failure mechanisms are determined for cracks of known depth but unspecified location, cracks of known location but unknown depth, and cracks of unspecified location and depth. It is shown that there is a nearly up to 50% drop in terms of the stability factors for the rock slopes intersected by a tension crack compared with intact ones. Tables and charts of solutions in dimensionless forms are presented for ease of use by practitioners.

Keywords: Hoek-Brown failure criterion, limit analysis, rock slope, tension cracks

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

Abstract:

The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: M. Ezzat, Y. Zaghloul, T. Sorour, A. Hefny, M. Eid

Abstract:

Ultimate capacity of large diameter bored piles is usually determined from pile loading tests as recommended by several international codes and foundation design standards. However, loading of this type of piles till achieving apparent failure is practically seldom. In this paper, numerical analyses are carried out to simulate load test of a large diameter bored pile performed at the location of Alzey highway bridge project (Germany). Test results of pile load settlement relationship till failure as well as results of the base and shaft resistances are available. Apparent failure was indicated in this test by the significant increase of the induced settlement during the last load increment applied on the pile head. Measurements of this pile load test are used to assess the quality of the numerical models investigated. Three different material soil models are implemented in the analyses: Mohr coulomb (MC), Soft soil (SS), and Modified Mohr coulomb (MMC). Very good agreement is obtained between the field measured settlement and the calculated settlement using the MMC model. Results of analysis showed also that the MMC constitutive model is superior to MC, and SS models in predicting the ultimate base and shaft resistances of the large diameter bored pile. After calibrating the numerical model, behavior of large diameter bored piles under axial loads is discussed and the formation of the plastic zone around the pile is explored. Results obtained showed that the plastic zone below the base of the pile at failure extended laterally to about four times the pile diameter and vertically to about three times the pile diameter.

Keywords: ultimate capacity, large diameter bored piles, plastic zone, failure, pile load test

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Mikhail O. Eremin

Abstract:

Present work is devoted to experimental study and numerical modelling of failure of rocks typical for Kuzbass coal basin (Russia). The main goal was to define strength and deformation characteristics of rocks on the base of uniaxial compression and three-point bending loadings and then to build a mathematical model of failure process for both types of loading. Depending on particular physical-mechanical characteristics typical rocks of Kuzbass coal basin (sandstones, siltstones, mudstones, etc. of different series – Kolchuginsk, Tarbagansk, Balohonsk) manifest brittle and quasi-brittle character of failure. The strength characteristics for both tension and compression are found. Other characteristics are also found from the experiment or taken from literature reviews. On the base of obtained characteristics and structure (obtained from microscopy) the mathematical and structural models are built and numerical modelling of failure under different types of loading is carried out. Effective characteristics obtained from modelling and character of failure correspond to experiment and thus, the mathematical model was verified. An Instron 1185 machine was used to carry out the experiments. Mathematical model includes fundamental conservation laws of solid mechanics – mass, impulse, energy. Each rock has a sufficiently anisotropic structure, however, each crystallite might be considered as isotropic and then a whole rock model has a quasi-isotropic structure. This idea gives an opportunity to use the Hooke’s law inside of each crystallite and thus explicitly accounting for the anisotropy of rocks and the stress-strain state at loading. Inelastic behavior is described in frameworks of two different models: von Mises yield criterion and modified Drucker-Prager yield criterion. The damage accumulation theory is also implemented in order to describe a failure process. Obtained effective characteristics of rocks are used then for modelling of rock mass evolution when mining is carried out both by an open-pit or underground opening.

Keywords: damage accumulation, Drucker-Prager yield criterion, failure, mathematical modelling, three-point bending, uniaxial compression

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Fatai Shola Afolabi

Abstract:

The study identified and evaluates the causes of building failure and examined the effects of building failure with respect to cost in Lagos State, Nigeria. The method employed in the collection of data includes the administration of questionnaire to professionals in the construction industry and case studies for the sites. A purposive sampling technique was used for selecting the sites visited, and selecting the construction professionals. Descriptive statistical techniques such as frequency distribution and percentages and mean response analysis were used to analyze data. The study revealed that the major causes of building failures were bad design, faulty construction, over loading, non-possession of approved drawings, Possession of approved drawings but non-compliance, and the use of quarks. In the two case studies considered, the total direct loss to the building owners was thirty eight million three hundred and eight five thousand, seven hundred and twenty one naira (38,385,721) which is about One hundred and ninety four thousand, eighty hundred and fifty one dollars ($194,851) at one hundred and ninety seven naira to one US dollars, central bank Nigeria of exchange rate as at 14th March, 2015.

Keywords: building structures, building failure, building collapse, structural failure, cost, direct loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Aboozar Aghaei

Abstract:

In the present work, the dissimilar Monel400 and SS316 were joined by friction stir welding (FSW). The applied rotating speed was 400 rpm, whereas the traverse speed varied between 50 and 150 mm/min. At a constant rotating speed, the sound welds were obtained at the welding speeds of 50 and 100 mm/min. However, a groove-like defect was formed when the welding speed exceeded 100 mm/min. The mechanical properties of the joints were evaluated using tensile and fatigue tests. The fatigue strength of dissimilar FSWed specimens was higher than that of both Monel400 and SS316. To study the failure behavior of FSWed specimens, the fracture surfaces were analyzed using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The failure analysis indicates that different mechanisms may contribute to the fracture of welds. This was attributed to the dissimilar characteristics of dissimilar materials exhibiting different failure behaviors.

Keywords: frictions stir welding (FSW), stainless steel, mechanical properties, Monel400

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Umberto Cerasani, Luca Cerasani

Abstract:

Methods for earthquakes forecasting have been intensively investigated in the last decades, but there is still no universal solution agreed by seismologists. Rock failure is most often preceded by a tiny elastic movement in the failure area and by the appearance of micro-cracks. These micro-cracks could be detected at the soil surface and represent useful earth-quakes precursors. The aim of this study was to verify whether tiny raw acceleration signals (in the 10⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ cm/s² range) prior to the arrival of main primary-waves could be exploitable and related to earthquakes magnitude. Mathematical tools such as Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), moving average and wavelets have been applied on raw acceleration data available on the ITACA web site, and the study focused on one of the most unpredictable earth-quakes, i.e., the August 24th, 2016 at 01H36 one that occurred in the central Italy area. It appeared that these tiny acceleration signals preceding main P-waves have different patterns both on frequency and time domains for high magnitude earthquakes compared to lower ones.

Keywords: earthquake, accelerometer, earthquake forecasting, seism

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: N. Abbas, S. Lagomarsino, S. Cattari

Abstract:

Examining existing experimental results for shallow rigid foundations subjected to vertical centric load (N), accompanied or not with a bending moment (M), two main non-linear mechanisms governing the cyclic ‎response of the soil-foundation system can be distinguished: foundation uplift and soil yielding. A soil-foundation failure limit, is defined as a domain of resistance in the two dimensional (2D) load space (N, M) inside of which lie all the admissible combinations of loads; these latter correspond to a pure elastic, non-linear elastic or plastic behavior of the soil-foundation system, while the points lying on the failure limit correspond to a combination of loads leading to a failure of the soil-foundation system. In this study, the proposed resistance domain is constructed analytically based on mechanics. Original elastic limit, uplift initiation ‎limit and iso-uplift limits are constructed inside this domain. These limits give a prediction ‎of the mechanisms activated for each combination of loads applied to the ‎foundation. A comparison of the proposed failure limit with experimental tests existing in the literature shows interesting results. Also, the developed uplift initiation limit and iso-uplift curves are confronted with others already proposed in the literature and widely used due to the absence of other alternatives, and remarkable differences are noted, showing evident errors in the past proposals and relevant accuracy for those given in the present work.

Keywords: foundation uplift, iso-uplift curves, resistance domain, soil yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

Abstract:

Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

Abstract:

Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Aboozar Aghaei, Kamran Dehghani

Abstract:

In the present work, the dissimilar Monel400 and SS316 were joined by friction stir welding (FSW). The applied rotating speed was 400 rpm, whereas the traverse speed varied between 50 and 150 mm/min. At a constant rotating speed, the sound welds were obtained at the welding speeds of 50 and 100 mm/min. However, a groove-like defect was formed when the welding speed exceeded 100 mm/min. The mechanical properties of the joints were evaluated using tensile and fatigue tests. The fatigue strength of dissimilar FSWed specimens was higher than that of both Monel400 and SS316. To study the failure behavior of FSWed specimens, the fracture surfaces were analyzed using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The failure analysis indicates that different mechanisms may contribute to the fracture of welds. This was attributed to the dissimilar characteristics of dissimilar materials exhibiting different failure behaviors.

Keywords: frictions stir welding, stainless steel, Monel400, mechanical properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

Abstract:

The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Matthew Scott Lau

Abstract:

This study addresses the research question: How effective has the Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) been in reducing market failure in Singapore’s healthcare sector? The CHAS policy, introduced in 2012 in Singapore, aims to improve accessibility and affordability of healthcare by offering subsidies to low and middle-income groups and elderly individuals for general practice consultations and healthcare. The investigation was undertaken by acquiring and analysing primary and secondary research data from 3 main sources, including handwritten survey responses of 334 individuals who were valid CHAS subsidy recipients (CHAS cardholders) from 5 different locations in Singapore, interview responses from two established general practitioner doctors with working knowledge of the scheme, and information from literature available online. Survey responses were analysed to determine how CHAS has affected the affordability and consumption of healthcare, and other benefits or drawbacks for CHAS users. The interview responses were used to explain the benefits of healthcare consumption and provide different perspectives on the impacts of CHAS on the various parties involved. Online sources provided useful information on changes in healthcare consumerism and Singapore’s government policies. The study revealed that CHAS has been largely effective in reducing market failure as the subsidies granted to consumers have improved the consumption of healthcare. This has allowed for the external benefits of healthcare consumption to be realized, thus reducing market failure. However, the study also revealed that CHAS cannot be fully effective in reducing market failure as the scope of CHAS prevents healthcare consumption from fully reaching the socially optimal level. Hence, the study concluded that CHAS has been effective to a large extent in reducing market failure in Singapore’s healthcare sector, albeit with some benefits to third parties yet to be realised. There are certain elements of the investigation, which may limit the validity of the conclusion, such as the means used to determine the socially optimal level of healthcare consumption, and the survey sample size.

Keywords: healthcare consumption, health economics, market failure, subsidies

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Niloufar Khoshbakht, Peggi L. Clouston, Sanjay R. Arwade, Alexander C. Schreyer

Abstract:

Laminated veneer bamboo (LVB) is a structural engineered composite made from glued layers of bamboo. A relatively new building product, LVB is currently employed in similar sizes and applications as dimensional lumber. This study describes the results of a 3D elastic Finite Element model for halfhole specimens when loaded in compression parallel-to-grain per ASTM 5764. The model simulates LVB fracture initiation due to shear stresses in the dowel joint and predicts displacement at failure validated through comparison with experimental results. The material fails at 1mm displacement due to in-plane shear stresses. The paper clarifies the complex interactive state of in-plane shear, tension perpendicular-to-grain, and compression parallel-to-grain stresses that form different distributions in the critical zone beneath the bolt hole for half-hole specimens. These findings are instrumental in understanding key factors and fundamental failure mechanisms that occur in LVB dowel connections to help devise safe standards and further LVB product adoption and design.

Keywords: composite, dowel connection, embedment strength, failure behavior, finite element analysis, Moso bamboo

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit-state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, taylor

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Muhammad Saqlain, Nazar Abbas Saqib, Muazzam A. Khan

Abstract:

Heart Failure (HF) has become the major health problem in our society. The prevalence of HF has increased as the patient’s ages and it is the major cause of the high mortality rate in adults. A successful identification and progression of HF can be helpful to reduce the individual and social burden from this syndrome. In this study, we use a real data set of cardiac patients to propose a classification model for the identification and progression of HF. The data set has divided into three age groups, namely young, adult, and old and then each age group have further classified into four classes according to patient’s current physical condition. Contemporary Data Mining classification algorithms have been applied to each individual class of every age group to identify the HF. Decision Tree (DT) gives the highest accuracy of 90% and outperform all other algorithms. Our model accurately diagnoses different stages of HF for each age group and it can be very useful for the early prediction of HF.

Keywords: decision tree, heart failure, data mining, classification model

Procedia PDF Downloads 380