Search results for: budget uncertainty
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1397

Search results for: budget uncertainty

407 Performance Management in Public Administration on Chile and Portugal

Authors: Lilian Bambirra De Assis, Patricia Albuquerque Gomes, Kamila Pagel De Oliveira, Deborah Oliveira Santos, Marcelo Esteves Chaves Campos

Abstract:

This paper aimed to analyze how performance management occurs in the context of the modernization of the federal public sector in Chile and Portugal. To do so, the study was based on a theoretical framework that covers the modernization of public administration to performance management, passing on people management. The work consisted of qualitative-descriptive research in which 16 semi-structured interviews were applied in the countries of study and documents and legislation were used referring to the subject. Performance management, as well as other people management subsystems, is criticized for using private sector management tools, based on a results-driven logic. From this point of view, it is understood that certain practices of the private sector, regarding the measurement of performance, can not be simply inserted in the scenario of the public administration. Beyond this criticism, performance management can contribute to the achievement of the strategic objectives of the countries and its focus is upward, a trend that can be verified through the manuals produced; by the interest of consultants and professional organizations, both public and private; and OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) evaluations. In Portugal, public administration reform was implemented during the Constitutional Government (2005-2009) and had as its objective the restructuring of human resources management, with an emphasis on its integration with budget management, which is an inclination of the OECD, while in Chile HRM (Human Resource Management) practices are directed to ministries to a lesser extent than the OECD average. The central human resources management sector, for the most part, coordinates policy but is also responsible for other issues, including payment and classification systems. Chile makes less use of strategic Human Resource Management practices than the average of OECD countries, and its prominence lies in the decentralization of public bodies, which may grant autonomy, but fragments the implementation of policies and practices in that country since they are not adopted by all organs. Through the analysis, it was possible to identify that Chile and Portugal have practices and personnel management policies that make reference to performance management, which is similar to other OECD countries. The study countries also have limitations to implement performance management and the results indicate that there are still processes to be perfected, such as performance appraisal and compensation.

Keywords: management of people in the public sector, modernization of public administration, performance management in the public sector, HRM, OECD

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406 Professional Stakeholders Perspectives on Community Participation in Transit-Oriented Development Projects: A Johannesburg Case Study

Authors: Kofi Quartey, Kola Ijasan

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Achieving densification around transit-oriented development projects has proven the most ideal way of facilitating urban sprawl whilst increasing the mobility of the majority of the urban populations, making parts of the city that were inaccessible, accessible. Johannesburg has undertaken TOD vision, which was initially called the corridors of freedom. The TOD, in line with the Sustainable Development Goal 11, seeks to establish inclusive, sustainable cities and, in line with the Joburg Growth Development Strategy, aims to create an equitable world-class African city. Equity and inclusivity should occur from the onset of planning and implementation of TOD projects through meaningful community participation. Stakeholder engagement literature from various disciplinary backgrounds has documented dissatisfaction of communities regarding the lack of meaningful participation in government-led development initiatives. The views of other project stakeholders such as project policy planners and project implementors and their challenges in undertaking community participation are, however, not taken into account in such instances, leaving room for a biased perspective. Document analysis was undertaken to determine what is expected of the Project stakeholders according to policy and whether they carried out their duties) seven interviews were also conducted with city entities and community representatives to determine their experiences and challenges with community participation in the various TOD projects attributed to the CoF vision. The findings of the study indicated that stakeholder engagement processes were best described as an ‘educative process’; where local communities were limited to being informed from the onset rather than having an active involvement in the planning processes. Most community members felt they were being informed and educated as to what was going to happen in spite of having their views and opinions collected – primarily due to project deadlines and budget constraints, as was confirmed by professional stakeholders. Some community members exhibited reluctance to change due to feelings of having projects being imposed on them, and the implications of the projects on their properties and lifestyles. It is recommended that community participation should remain a participatory and engaging process that creates an exchange of knowledge and understanding in the form of a dialogue between communities and project stakeholders until a consensus is reached.

Keywords: stakeholder engagement, transit oriented development, community participation, Johannesburg

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405 Demand-Side Financing for Thai Higher Education: A Reform Towards Sustainable Development

Authors: Daral Maesincee, Jompol Thongpaen

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Thus far, most of the decisions made within the walls of Thai higher education (HE) institutions have primarily been supply-oriented. With the current supply-driven, itemized HE financing systems, the nation is struggling to systemically produce high-quality manpower that serves the market’s needs, often resulting in education mismatches and unemployment – particularly in science, technology, and innovation (STI)-related fields. With the COVID-19 pandemic challenges widening the education inequality (accessibility and quality) gap, HE becomes even more unobtainable for underprivileged students, permanently leaving some out of the system. Therefore, Thai HE needs a new financing system that produces the “right people” for the “right occupations” through the “right ways,” regardless of their socioeconomic backgrounds, and encourages the creation of non-degree courses to tackle these ongoing challenges. The “Demand-Side Financing for Thai Higher Education” policy aims to do so by offering a new paradigm of HE resource allocation via two main mechanisms: i) standardized formula-based unit-cost subsidizations that is specific to each study field and ii) student loan programs that respond to the “demand signals” from the labor market and the students, that are in line with the country’s priorities. Through in-dept reviews, extensive studies, and consultations with various experts, education committees, and related agencies, i) the method of demand signal analysis is identified, ii) the unit-cost of each student in the sample study fields is approximated, iii) the method of budget analysis is formulated, iv) the interagency workflows are established, and v) a supporting information database is created to suggest the number of graduates each HE institution can potentially produce, the study fields and skillsets that are needed by the labor market, the employers’ satisfaction with the graduates, and each study field’s employment rates. By responding to the needs of all stakeholders, this policy is expected to steer Thai HE toward producing more STI-related manpower in order to uplift Thai people’s quality of life and enhance the nation’s global competitiveness. This policy is currently in the process of being considered by the National Education Transformation Committee and the Higher Education Commission.

Keywords: demand-side financing, higher education resource, human capital, higher education

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404 Communities as a Source of Evidence: A Case of Advocating for Improved Human Resources for Health in Uganda

Authors: Asinguza P. Allan

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The Advocacy for Better Health aims to equip citizens with enabling environment and systems to effectively advocate for strong action plans to improve health services. This is because the 2020 Government target for Uganda to transform into a middle income country will be achieved if investment is made in keeping the population healthy and productive. Citizen participation as an important foundation for change has been emphasized to gather data through participatory rural appraisal and inform evidence-based advocacy for recruitment and motivation of human resources. Citizens conduct problem ranking during advocacy forums on staffing levels and health worker absenteeism. Citizens prioritised inadequate number of midwives and absenteeism. On triangulation, health worker to population ratio in Uganda remains at 0.25/1,000 which is far below the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold of 2.3/1,000. Working with IntraHealth, the project advocated for recruitment of critical skilled staff (doctors and midwives) and scale up health workers motivation strategy to reduce Uganda’s Neonatal Mortality Rate of 22/1,000 and Maternal Mortality Ratio of 320/100,000. Government has committed to increase staffing to 80% by 2018 (10 districts have passed ordinances and revived use of duty rosters to address health worker absenteeism. On the other hand, the better health advocacy debate has been elevated with need to increase health sector budget allocations from 8% to 10%. The project has learnt that building a body of evidence from citizens enhances the advocacy agenda. Communities will further monitor government commitments to reduce Neonatal Mortality Rate and Maternal Mortality Ratio. The project has learnt that interface meeting between duty bearers and the community allows for immediate feedback and the process is a strong instrument for empowerment. It facilitates monitoring and performance evaluation of services, projects and government administrative units (like district assemblies) by the community members themselves. This, in turn, makes the human resources in health to be accountable, transparent and responsive to communities where they work. This, in turn, promotes human resource performance.

Keywords: advocacy, empowerment, evidence, human resources

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403 Information Technology Outsourcing and Knowledge Transfer: Achieving Strategic Alignment through Organizational Learning

Authors: M. Kolotylo, H. Zheng, R. Parente, R. Dahiya

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Large number of organizations, frequently motivated by budget and cost cuts, outsource their Information Technology (IT) positions every year. Although the objective of reduction in financial obligations is often not accomplished, many buyer companies still manage to benefit from outsourcing projects. Knowledge Transfer (KT), being one of the major processes that take place during IT outsourcing partnership, may exert a strong impact on the performance of the parties involved, particularly that of the buyer. Research, however, lacks strong conceptual basis for the possible benefits that KT from supplier may bring to the buyer; and for the mechanisms that may be adopted by the buyer to maximize such benefit. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a conceptual framework of organizational learning and development of dynamic capabilities enabled by KT from the supplier to the buyer. The study examines buyer-supplier relationships in the context of IT outsourcing transactions, and theorizes how KT from the supplier to the buyer helps the performance of the buyer. It warrants that more research is carried out in order to explicate and provide evidence regarding the role that KT plays in strategic improvements for the buyer. The paper proposes to take up a two-fold approach to the research: conceptual development that utilizes logical argumentation and interpretive historical research, as well as a qualitative case study which aims to capture and understand the complex processes involved. Thus, the study provides a comprehensive visualization of the dynamics of the conditions under which participation in IT outsourcing partnership might be of benefit to the buyer company. The framework demonstrates the mechanisms involved in buyer’s achievement of strategic alignment through organizational learning enabled by KT from the supplier. It highlights that organizational learning involves a balance between exploitation of assets and exploration of new possibilities, and further notes that the dynamic capabilities mediate the effect of organizational learning on firm performance. The paper explicates in what ways managers can leverage outsourcing projects to execute strategy, which would enable their organization achieve better performance. The study concludes that organizational learning enables the firm to develop IT capabilities of strategic planning, IT integration, and IT relationships in the outsourcing context, and that IT capabilities developed through the organizational learning would help the firm in achieving strategic alignment.

Keywords: dynamic capabilities, it outsourcing, knowledge transfer, organizational learning, strategic alignment

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402 Predicting Ecological Impacts of Sea-Level Change on Coastal Conservation Areas in India

Authors: Mohammad Zafar-ul Islam, Shaily Menon, Xingong Li, A. Townsend Peterson

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In addition to the mounting empirical data on direct implications of climate change for natural and human systems, evidence is increasing for other, indirect climate change phenomena such as sea-level rise. Rising sea levels and associated marine intrusion into terrestrial environments are predicted to be among the most serious eventual consequences of climate change. The many complex and interacting factors affecting sea levels create considerable uncertainty in sea-level rise projections: conservative estimates are on the order of 0.5-1.0 m globally, while other estimates are much higher, approaching 6 m. Marine intrusion associated with 1– 6 m sea-level rise will impact species and habitats in coastal ecosystems severely. Examining areas most vulnerable to such impacts may allow design of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We present an overview of potential effects of 1 and 6 m sea level rise for coastal conservation areas in the Indian Subcontinent. In particular, we examine the projected magnitude of areal losses in relevant biogeographic zones, ecoregions, protected areas (PAs), and Important Bird Areas (IBAs). In addition, we provide a more detailed and quantitative analysis of likely effects of marine intrusion on 22 coastal PAs and IBAs that provide critical habitat for birds in the form of breeding areas, migratory stopover sites, and overwintering habitats. Several coastal PAs and IBAs are predicted to experience higher than 50% losses to marine intrusion. We explore consequences of such inundation levels on species and habitat in these areas.

Keywords: sea-level change, coastal inundation, marine intrusion, biogeographic zones, ecoregions, protected areas, important bird areas, adaptation, mitigation

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401 Quantifying Wave Attenuation over an Eroding Marsh through Numerical Modeling

Authors: Donald G. Danmeier, Gian Marco Pizzo, Matthew Brennan

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Although wetlands have been proposed as a green alternative to manage coastal flood hazards because of their capacity to adapt to sea level rise and provision of multiple ecological and social co-benefits, they are often overlooked due to challenges in quantifying the uncertainty and naturally, variability of these systems. This objective of this study was to quantify wave attenuation provided by a natural marsh surrounding a large oil refinery along the US Gulf Coast that has experienced steady erosion along the shoreward edge. The vegetation module of the SWAN was activated and coupled with a hydrodynamic model (DELFT3D) to capture two-way interactions between the changing water level and wavefield over the course of a storm event. Since the marsh response to relative sea level rise is difficult to predict, a range of future marsh morphologies is explored. Numerical results were examined to determine the amount of wave attenuation as a function of marsh extent and the relative contributions from white-capping, depth-limited wave breaking, bottom friction, and flexing of vegetation. In addition to the coupled DELFT3D-SWAN modeling of a storm event, an uncoupled SWAN-VEG model was applied to a simplified bathymetry to explore a larger experimental design space. The wave modeling revealed that the rate of wave attenuation reduces for higher surge but was still significant over a wide range of water levels and outboard wave heights. The results also provide insights to the minimum marsh extent required to fully realize the potential wave attenuation so the changing coastal hazards can be managed.

Keywords: green infrastructure, wave attenuation, wave modeling, wetland

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400 An Analytical View of Albanian and French Legislation on Access to Health Care Benefits

Authors: Oljana Hoxhaj

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The integration process of Albania into the European family carries many difficulties. In this context, the Albanian legislator is inclined to implement in the domestic legal framework models which have been successful in other countries. Our paper aims to present an analytical and comparative approach to the health system in Albania and France, mainly focusing on citizen’s access to these services. Different standards and cultures between states, in the context of an approximate model, will be the first challenge of our paper. Over the last few years, the Albanian government has undertaken concrete reforms in this sector, aiming to transform the vision on which the previous health system was structured. In this perspective, the state fulfills not only an obligation to its citizens, but also consolidates progressive steps toward alignment with European Union standards. The necessity to undertake a genuine reform in this area has come as an exigency of society, which has permanently identified problems within this sector, considering it ineffective, out of standards, and corrupt. The inclusion of health services on the Albanian government agenda reflects its will in the function of good governance, transparency, and broadening access to the provision of quality health services in the public and private sectors. The success of any initiative in the health system consists of giving priority to patient needs. Another objective that should be in the state's consideration is to create the premise to provide a comprehensive process on whose foundations partnership and broader co-operation with beneficiary entities are established in any decision-making that is directly related to their interests. Some other important and widespread impacts on the effective realization of citizens' access to the healthcare system coincide with the construction of appropriate infrastructure, increasing the professionalism and qualification of medical staff, and the allocation of a higher budget. France has one of the most effective healthcare models in Europe. That is why we have chosen to analyze this country, aiming to highlight the advantages of this system, as well as the commitment of the French state to drafting effective health policies. In the framework of the process of harmonization of the Albanian legislation with that of the European Union, through our work, we aim to identify the space to implement the whole of these legislative innovations in the Albanian legislation.

Keywords: effective service, harmonization level, innovation, reform

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399 Unfolding the Affective Atmospheres during the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis: The Constitution and Performance of Affective Governance in Taiwan

Authors: Sang-Ju Yu

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This paper examines the changing essences and effects of ‘affective atmosphere’ during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, which have been facilitated and shaped the ‘affective governance’ in Taiwan. Due to long-term uncertainty and unpredictability, the COVID-19 pandemic not only caused unprecedented global crisis but triggered the public’s negative emotional responses. This paper unravels how the shortage of Personal Protective Equipment and the proliferating fake news heightened people’s fear and anxiety and how specific affective atmospheres can be provoked and manipulated to harness emotional appeals of citizens strategically in Taiwan. Through the in-depth interviews with diverse stakeholders involved, it unfolds the dynamics and strategies of affective governance, wherein public emotions and concerns are now given significant consideration in both policy measures and the affective expression of leadership, spatial arrangement, service delivery, and the interaction with citizens. Addressing psychosocial and emotional needs has become the core of crisis response mechanisms suited to dynamic affective atmospheres and pandemic situation. This paper also demonstrates that epidemic prevention and control is not merely the production of neutral or rational policy-making processes, as it is dominated by multiple emotions resulted from unexpected and salient events at different moments. It provides explicit insight into how different prevention scenarios operated effectively through political and affective mobilisation to strengthen emotional bonding and collective identity which energises collective action. Basically, successful affective governance calls for both negative and positive emotions, for both scientific and political decision-making, for both community and bureaucracy, and both quality and efficiency of private–public collaboration.

Keywords: affective atmospheres, affective governance, COVID-19 pandemic, private-public collaboration

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398 Probabilistic Analysis of Bearing Capacity of Isolated Footing using Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

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The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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397 Organizing Diabetes Care in a Resource Constrained Country: Bangladesh as an Example

Authors: Liaquat Ali, Khurshid Natasha

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Low resource countries are not usually equipped with the organizational tools to implement health care for chronic diseases, and thus, providing effective diabetes care in such countries is a challenging task. Diabetic Association of Bangladesh (BADAS in Bengali acronym) has created a stimulating example to meet this challenge. Starting its journey in 1956 with 39 patients in a small tin shed clinic BADAS, and its affiliated associations now operate 90 hospitals and health centres all over the country. Together, these facilities provide integrated health care to about 1.5 million registered diabetic patients which constitute about 20% of the estimated diabetic population in the country. BADAS has also become a pioneer in health manpower generation in Bangladesh. Along with its affiliates, it now runs 3 Medical Colleges (to generate graduate physicians), 2 Nursing Institutes, and 2 Postgraduate Institutes which conduct 25 postgraduate courses (under the University of Dhaka) in various basic, clinical and public health disciplines. BADAS gives great emphasis on research, which encompasses basic, clinical as well as public health areas. BADAS is an ideal example of public-private partnership in health as most of its infrastructure has been created through government support but it is almost self-reliant in managing its revenue budget which approached approximately 40 million US dollar during 2010. BADAS raises resources by providing high-quality services to the people, both diabetic and non-diabetic. At the same time, BADAS has developed a cross financing model, to support diabetic patients in general and poor diabetic patients (identified through a social welfare network) in particular, through redistribution of the resources. Along with financial sustainability BADAS ensure organizational sustainability through a process of decentralization, community ownership, and democratic management. Presently a large scale pilot project (named as a Health Care Development Project or HCDP) is under implementation under BADAS umbrella with an objective to transform the diabetes care model to a health care model in general. It is expected to create further evidence on providing sustainable (with social safety net) health care delivery for diabetes, and other chronic illnesses as an integral part of general health care delivery in a resource constrained setting.

Keywords: Bangladesh, self sustain, health care, constrain

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396 Design of a Fuzzy Expert System for the Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on Cardiac and Renal Impediments

Authors: E. Rama Devi Jothilingam

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Diabetes mellitus is now one of the most common non communicable diseases globally. India leads the world with largest number of diabetic subjects earning the title "diabetes capital of the world". In order to reduce the mortality rate, a fuzzy expert system is designed to predict the severity of cardiac and renal problems of diabetic patients using fuzzy logic. Since uncertainty is inherent in medicine, fuzzy logic is used in this research work to remove the inherent fuzziness of linguistic concepts and uncertain status in diabetes mellitus which is the prime cause for the cardiac arrest and renal failure. In this work, the controllable risk factors "blood sugar, insulin, ketones, lipids, obesity, blood pressure and protein/creatinine ratio" are considered as input parameters and the "the stages of cardiac" (SOC)" and the stages of renal" (SORD) are considered as the output parameters. The triangular membership functions are used to model the input and output parameters. The rule base is constructed for the proposed expert system based on the knowledge from the medical experts. Mamdani inference engine is used to infer the information based on the rule base to take major decision in diagnosis. Mean of maximum is used to get a non fuzzy control action that best represent possibility distribution of an inferred fuzzy control action. The proposed system also classifies the patients with high risk and low risk using fuzzy c means clustering techniques so that the patients with high risk are treated immediately. The system is validated with Matlab and is used as a tracking system with accuracy and robustness.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, fuzzy expert system, Mamdani, MATLAB

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395 Exploring Leadership Adaptability in the Private Healthcare Organizations in the UK in Times of Crises

Authors: Sade Ogundipe

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The private healthcare sector in the United Kingdom has experienced unprecedented challenges during times of crisis, necessitating effective leadership adaptability. This qualitative study delves into the dynamic landscape of leadership within the sector, particularly during crises, employing the lenses of complexity theory and institutional theory to unravel the intricate mechanisms at play. Through in-depth interviews with 25 various levels of leaders in the UK private healthcare sector, this research explores how leaders in UK private healthcare organizations navigate complex and often chaotic environments, shedding light on their adaptive strategies and decision-making processes during crises. Complexity theory is used to analyze the complicated, volatile nature of healthcare crises, emphasizing the need for adaptive leadership in such contexts. Institutional theory, on the other hand, provides insights into how external and internal institutional pressures influence leadership behavior. Findings from this study highlight the multifaceted nature of leadership adaptability, emphasizing the significance of leaders' abilities to embrace uncertainty, engage in sensemaking, and leverage the institutional environment to enact meaningful changes. Furthermore, this research sheds light on the challenges and opportunities that leaders face when adapting to crises within the UK private healthcare sector. The study's insights contribute to the growing body of literature on leadership in healthcare, offering practical implications for leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders within the UK private healthcare sector. By employing the dual perspectives of complexity theory and institutional theory, this research provides a holistic understanding of leadership adaptability in the face of crises, offering valuable guidance for enhancing the resilience and effectiveness of healthcare leadership within this vital sector.

Keywords: leadership, adaptability, decision-making, complexity, complexity theory, institutional theory, organizational complexity, complex adaptive system (CAS), crises, healthcare

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394 Disrupted or Discounted Cash Flow: Impact of Digitisation on Business Valuation

Authors: Matthias Haerri, Tobias Huettche, Clemens Kustner

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This article discusses the impact of digitization on business valuation. In order to become and remain ‘digital’, investments are necessary whose return on investment (ROI) often remains vague. This uncertainty is contradictory for a valuation, that rely on predictable cash flows, fixed capital structures and the steady state. However digitisation does not make a company valuation impossible, but traditional approaches must be reconsidered. The authors identify four areas that are to be changing: (1) Tools instead of intuition - In the future, company valuation will neither be art nor science, but craft. This does not require intuition, but experience and good tools. Digital evaluation tools beyond Excel will therefore gain in importance. (2) Real-time instead of deadline - At present, company valuations are always carried out on a case-by-case basis and on a specific key date. This will change with the digitalization and the introduction of web-based valuation tools. Company valuations can thus not only be carried out faster and more efficiently, but can also be offered more frequently. Instead of calculating the value for a previous key date, current and real-time valuations can be carried out. (3) Predictive planning instead of analysis of the past - Past data will also be needed in the future, but its use will not be limited to monovalent time series or key figure analyses. With pictures of ‘black swans’ and the ‘turkey illusion’ it was made clear to us that we build forecasts on too few data points of the past and underestimate the power of chance. Predictive planning can help here. (4) Convergence instead of residual value - Digital transformation shortens the lifespan of viable business models. If companies want to live forever, they have to change forever. For the company valuation, this means that the business model valid on the valuation date only has a limited service life.

Keywords: business valuation, corporate finance, digitisation, disruption

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393 Factors Affecting Entrepreneurial Behavior and Performance of Youth Entrepreneurs in Malaysia

Authors: Mohd Najib Mansor, Nur Syamilah Md. Noor, Abdul Rahim Anuar, Shazida Jan Mohd Khan, Ahmad Zubir Ibrahim, Badariah Hj Din, Abu Sufian Abu Bakar, Kalsom Kayat, Wan Nurmahfuzah Jannah Wan Mansor

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This study aimed and focused on the behavior of youth entrepreneurs’ especially entrepreneurial self-efficacy and the performance in micro SMEs in Malaysia. Entrepreneurship development calls for support from various quarters, and mostly the need exists to initiate a youth entrepreneurship culture and drive amongst the youth in the society. Although backed up by the government and non-government organizations, micro-entrepreneurs are still facing challenges which greatly delay their progress, growth and consequently their input towards economic advancement. Micro-entrepreneurs are confronted with unique difficulties such as uncertainty, innovation, and evolution. Reviews on the development of entrepreneurial characteristics such as need for achievement, internal locus of control, risk-taking and innovation and have been recognized as highly associated with entrepreneurial behavior. The data in this study was obtained from the Department of Statistics, Malaysia. A random sampling of 830 respondents was distributed to 14 states that involve of micro-entrepreneurs. The study adopted a quantitative approach whereby a set of questionnaire was used to gather data. Multiple regression analysis was chosen as a method of analysis testing. The result of this study is expected to provide insight into the factor affecting entrepreneurial behavior and performance of youth entrepreneurs in micro SMEs. The finding showed that the Malaysian youth entrepreneurs do not have the entrepreneurial self-efficacy within themselves in order to accomplish greater success in their business venture. The establishment of entrepreneurial schools to allow our youth to be exposed to entrepreneurship from an early age and the development of special training focuses on the creation of business network so that the continuous entrepreneurial culture is crafted.

Keywords: youth entrepreneurs, micro entrepreneurs, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, entrepreneurial performance

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392 Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Over the Indian Subcontinent: A Comparative Analysis from the Satellite Observation and Radiative Transfer Model

Authors: Shreya Srivastava, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) refers to the alteration of the Earth's energy balance from the scattering and absorption of solar radiation by aerosol particles. India experiences substantial ADRF due to high aerosol loading from various sources. These aerosols' radiative impact depends on their physical characteristics (such as size, shape, and composition) and atmospheric distribution. Quantifying ADRF is crucial for understanding aerosols’ impact on the regional climate and the Earth's radiative budget. In this study, we have taken radiation data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES, spatial resolution=1ox1o) for 22 years (2000-2021) over the Indian subcontinent. Except for a few locations, the short-wave DARF exhibits aerosol cooling at the TOA (values ranging from +2.5 W/m2 to -22.5W/m2). Cooling due to aerosols is more pronounced in the absence of clouds. Being an aerosol hotspot, higher negative ADRF is observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). Aerosol Forcing Efficiency (AFE) shows a decreasing seasonal trend in winter (DJF) over the entire study region while an increasing trend over IGP and western south India during the post-monsoon season (SON) in clear-sky conditions. Analysing atmospheric heating and AOD trends, we found that only the aerosol loading is not governing the change in atmospheric heating but also the aerosol composition and/or their vertical profile. We used a Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) Level-2 Version 23 aerosol products to look into aerosol composition. MISR incorporates 74 aerosol mixtures in its retrieval algorithm based on size, shape, and absorbing properties. This aerosol mixture information was used for analysing long-term changes in aerosol composition and dominating aerosol species corresponding to the aerosol forcing value. Further, ADRF derived from this method is compared with around 35 studies across India, where a plane parallel Radiative transfer model was used, and the model inputs were taken from the OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) utilizing only limited aerosol parameter measurements. The result shows a large overestimation of TOA warming by the latter (i.e., Model-based method).

Keywords: aerosol radiative forcing (ARF), aerosol composition, MISR, CERES, SBDART

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391 A Knowledge-Based Development of Risk Management Approaches for Construction Projects

Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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390 Adaptable Regulatory Oversight and Safety Awareness Regime: An Experience-Based Contribution Towards Sustainability in a Changing Railway Environment

Authors: Peaceman Sopazi, Mabila Mathebula, John Smallwood

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Recent health and safety (H&S) concerns and their resultant impact on railway operations, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) or collectively known as SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), which have dominated public discourse, brought into question as to whether, or not, some aspects of how we have so far managed safety oversight as railway regulatory bodies and operators will remain relevant in a changing railway environment. Railway practitioners have generally found themselves between a proverbial rock and a hard place by being confronted by emerging challenges which have brought along great opportunities for sustainability. As witnesses and participants to the progressively introduced railway safety management, and transformation regimes, this paper attempts to share gathered field experience on adaptable regulatory oversight and safety awareness. The discourse is approached from a South African context but also with an informed perspective of what seems to work and what usually does not. The authors share their own multi and transdisciplinary experience coupled with insights they have gained as researchers of global trends in general safety management and specific aspects of railway safety management, for sustainability. In addition to sharing a largely experience-based methodology for survival, suggestions are offered for consideration as a way of keeping the railway safety management discourse alive as practitioners navigate a new path which is shrouded in a cloud of untold uncertainty. The authors further believe that the right timing for the implementation of the proposed suggestions in this paper will produce beneficial outcomes. Finally, the paper will identify areas that are still open for further investigation for and by researchers and practitioners alike.

Keywords: health & safety management, safety awareness, railway safety management, railway systems sustainability

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389 Factors Influencing the General Public Intention to Be Vaccinated: A Case of Botswana

Authors: Meng Qing Feng, Otsile Morake

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Background: Successful implementation of the COVID-19 vaccination ensures the prevention of virus infection. Postponement and refusal of the vaccination will threaten public health, which is now common among the general public across the world. In addition, an acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine appears as a decisive factor in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Purpose: This study's objective is to explore the factors influencing the public intention to be vaccinated (ITBV). Design/methodology/approach: The web-based survey included socio-demographics and questions related to the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the health belief model (HBM). An online survey was administered using Google Form to collect data from participants of Botswana. The sample included 339 participants, half-half of the participants were female. Data analysis was run using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Findings: The study results highlight that perceived severity, perceived barriers, health motivation, and attitude have a positive and significant effect on ITBV, while perceived susceptibility, benefits, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control do not affect ITBV. Among all of the predictors, perceived barriers have the most significant influence on ITBV. Conclusion: Theoretically, this research stated that both HBM and TPB are effective in predicting and explaining the general public ITBV. Practically, this study offers insights to the government and health departments to arrange and launch health awareness programs and provide a better guide to vaccination so that doubts about vaccine confidence and the level of uncertainty can be decreased.

Keywords: COVID-19, Omicron, intention to be COVID-19 vaccine, health behavior model, theory of planned behavior, Botswana

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388 Improving Pneumatic Artificial Muscle Performance Using Surrogate Model: Roles of Operating Pressure and Tube Diameter

Authors: Van-Thanh Ho, Jaiyoung Ryu

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In soft robotics, the optimization of fluid dynamics through pneumatic methods plays a pivotal role in enhancing operational efficiency and reducing energy loss. This is particularly crucial when replacing conventional techniques such as cable-driven electromechanical systems. The pneumatic model employed in this study represents a sophisticated framework designed to efficiently channel pressure from a high-pressure reservoir to various muscle locations on the robot's body. This intricate network involves a branching system of tubes. The study introduces a comprehensive pneumatic model, encompassing the components of a reservoir, tubes, and Pneumatically Actuated Muscles (PAM). The development of this model is rooted in the principles of shock tube theory. Notably, the study leverages experimental data to enhance the understanding of the interplay between the PAM structure and the surrounding fluid. This improved interactive approach involves the use of morphing motion, guided by a contraction function. The study's findings demonstrate a high degree of accuracy in predicting pressure distribution within the PAM. The model's predictive capabilities ensure that the error in comparison to experimental data remains below a threshold of 10%. Additionally, the research employs a machine learning model, specifically a surrogate model based on the Kriging method, to assess and quantify uncertainty factors related to the initial reservoir pressure and tube diameter. This comprehensive approach enhances our understanding of pneumatic soft robotics and its potential for improved operational efficiency.

Keywords: pneumatic artificial muscles, pressure drop, morhing motion, branched network, surrogate model

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387 Optimisation of Metrological Inspection of a Developmental Aeroengine Disc

Authors: Suneel Kumar, Nanda Kumar J. Sreelal Sreedhar, Suchibrata Sen, V. Muralidharan,

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Fan technology is very critical and crucial for any aero engine technology. The fan disc forms a critical part of the fan module. It is an airworthiness requirement to have a metrological qualified quality disc. The current study uses a tactile probing and scanning on an articulated measuring machine (AMM), a bridge type coordinate measuring machine (CMM) and Metrology software for intermediate and final dimensional and geometrical verification during the prototype development of the disc manufactured through forging and machining process. The circumferential dovetails manufactured through the milling process are evaluated based on the evaluated and analysed metrological process. To perform metrological optimization a change of philosophy is needed making quality measurements available as fast as possible to improve process knowledge and accelerate the process but with accuracy, precise and traceable measurements. The offline CMM programming for inspection and optimisation of the CMM inspection plan are crucial portions of the study and discussed. The dimensional measurement plan as per the ASME B 89.7.2 standard to reach an optimised CMM measurement plan and strategy are an important requirement. The probing strategy, stylus configuration, and approximation strategy effects on the measurements of circumferential dovetail measurements of the developmental prototype disc are discussed. The results were discussed in the form of enhancement of the R &R (repeatability and reproducibility) values with uncertainty levels within the desired limits. The findings from the measurement strategy adopted for disc dovetail evaluation and inspection time optimisation are discussed with the help of various analyses and graphical outputs obtained from the verification process.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, CMM, aero engine, articulated measuring machine, fan disc

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386 Efficacy of Knowledge Management Practices in Selected Public Libraries in the Province of Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa

Authors: Petros Dlamini, Bethiweli Malambo, Maggie Masenya

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Knowledge management practices are very important in public libraries, especial in the era of the information society. The success of public libraries depends on the recognition and application of knowledge management practices. The study investigates the value and challenges of knowledge management practices in public libraries. Three research objectives informed the study: to identify knowledge management practices in public libraries, understand the value of knowledge management practices in public libraries, and determine the factors hampering knowledge management practices in public libraries. The study was informed by the interpretivism research paradigm, which is associated with qualitative studies. In that light, the study collected data from eight librarians and or library heads, who were purposively selected from public libraries. The study adopted a social anthropological approach, which thoroughly evaluated each participant's response. Data was collected from the respondents through telephonic semi-structured interviews and assessed accordingly. Furthermore, the study used the latest content concept for data interpretation. The chosen data analysis method allowed the study to achieve its main purpose with concrete and valid information. The study's findings showed that all six (100%) selected public libraries apply knowledge management practices. The findings of the study revealed that public libraries have knowledge sharing as the main knowledge management practice. It was noted that public libraries employ many practices, but each library employed its practices of choice depending on their knowledge management practices structure. The findings further showed that knowledge management practices in public libraries are employed through meetings, training, information sessions, and awareness, to mention a few. The findings revealed that knowledge management practices make the libraries usable. Furthermore, it has been asserted that knowledge management practices in public libraries meet users’ needs and expectations and equip them with skills. It was discovered that all participating public libraries from Umkhanyakude district municipality valued their knowledge management practices as the pillar and foundation of services. Noticeably, knowledge management practices improve users ‘standard of living and build an information society. The findings of the study showed that librarians should be responsible for the value of knowledge management practices as they are qualified personnel. The results also showed that 83.35% of public libraries had factors hampering knowledge management practices. The factors are not limited to shortage of funds, resources and space, and political interference. Several suggestions were made to improve knowledge management practices in public libraries. These suggestions include improving the library budget, increasing libraries’ building sizes, and conducting more staff training.

Keywords: knowledge management, knowledge management practices, storage, dissemination

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385 An Assessment of Finite Element Computations in the Structural Analysis of Diverse Coronary Stent Types: Identifying Prerequisites for Advancement

Authors: Amir Reza Heydari, Yaser Jenab

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Coronary artery disease, a common cardiovascular disease, is attributed to the accumulation of cholesterol-based plaques in the coronary arteries, leading to atherosclerosis. This disease is associated with risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and elevated cholesterol levels, contributing to severe clinical consequences, including acute coronary syndromes and myocardial infarction. Treatment approaches such as from lifestyle interventions to surgical procedures like percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary artery bypass surgery. These interventions often employ stents, including bare-metal stents (BMS), drug-eluting stents (DES), and bioresorbable vascular scaffolds (BVS), each with its advantages and limitations. Computational tools have emerged as critical in optimizing stent designs and assessing their performance. The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the computational methods of studies based on the finite element (FE) method in the field of coronary stenting and discuss the potential for development and clinical application of stent devices. Additionally, the importance of assessing the ability of computational models is emphasized to represent real-world phenomena, supported by recent guidelines from the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME). Validation processes proposed include comparing model performance with in vivo, ex-vivo, or in vitro data, alongside uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. These methods can enhance the credibility and reliability of in silico simulations, ultimately aiding in the assessment of coronary stent designs in various clinical contexts.

Keywords: atherosclerosis, materials, restenosis, review, validation

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384 Evaluation of Information Technology Governance Frameworks for Better Governance in South Africa

Authors: Memory Ranga, Phillip Pretorious

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The South African Government has invested a lot of money in Information Technology Governance (ITG) within the Government departments. The ITG framework was spearheaded by the Department of Public Service and Administration (DPSA). This led to the development of a governing ITG DPSA framework and later the Government Wide Enterprise Architecture (GWEA) Framework for assisting the departments to implement ITG. In addition to this, the government departments have adopted the Information Systems Audit and Control Association (ISACA) Control Objectives for Information and Related Technology (COBIT) for ITG processes. Despite all these available frameworks, departments fail to fully capitalise and improve the ITG processes mainly as these are too generic and difficult to apply for specific governance needs. There has been less research done to evaluate the progress on ITG initiatives within the government departments. This paper aims to evaluate the existing ITG frameworks within selected government departments in South Africa. A quantitative research approach was used in this study. Data was collected through an online questionnaire targeting ICT Managers and Directors from government departments. The study is undertaken within a case study and only the Eastern Cape Province was selected for the research. Document review mainly on ITG framework and best practices was also used. Data was analysed using the Google Analytic tools and SPSS. A one–sample Chi-Squared Test was used to verity the evaluation findings. Findings show that there is evidence that the current guiding National governance framework (DPSA) is out dated and does not accommodate the new changes in other governance frameworks. The Eastern Cape Government Departments have spent huge amount of money on ITG but not yet able to identify the benefits of the ITG initiatives. The guiding framework is rigid and does to address some of the departmental needs making it difficult to be flexible and apply the DPSA framework. Furthermore, despite the large budget on ITG, the departments still find themselves with many challenges and unable to improve some of the processes and services. All the engaged Eastern Cape departments have adopted the COBIT framework, but none has been conducting COBIT maturity Assessment which is a functionality of COBIT. There is evidence of too many the ITG frameworks and underutilisation of these frameworks. The study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the ITG frameworks that have been adopted by the South African Government Departments in the Eastern Cape Province. The evaluation guides and recommends the government departments to rethink and adopt ITG frameworks that could be customised to accommodate their needs. The adoption and application of ITG by government departments should assist in better governance and service delivery to the citizens.

Keywords: information technology governance, COBIT, evaluate, framework, governance, DPSA framework

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383 The Continuation of Trauma through Transcribing: Second Generation Survivors and the Inability for a 'Post-Holocaust'

Authors: Sarah Snyder

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Historians use the term ‘post-Holocaust’ to indicate the period from 1945 onward; however, for survivors of the Holocaust and their families, the Holocaust did not end in 1945. In fact, for some, it was just the beginning of their struggles. There are those who could not return to their homes, find loved ones, or fight off night terrors. Additionally, they continue to suffer from mental illness or physical disease stemming from the Holocaust. In order for historians to have a clearer understanding of the trauma survivors have endured, it is must to approach time differently. Trauma does not operate on a timeline and thereby, our understanding of ‘before,’ ‘during’ and ‘after’ are flawed. In order to convey this flaw, this study will examine memoirs of second and third-generation survivors and of child survivors. Within the second and third generation group, there are two types of generational memoirs that are scrutinized for this case study. The first being when a child or grandchild records the stories of their parent(s) or grandparent(s) without any of the second or third generation’s stories implicitly written. ‘Implicitly’ is used in the context that it is impossible for any writer to not impose at least some stylistic portion of themselves into writing, but the intent was to focus on the parent or grandparent. The other type of memoir is when they write their parent(s) or grandparent(s) story intertwined with their own story. Additionally, the child survivor has a unique role in memory and trauma studies. Much like later generations who write about the Holocaust but have not experienced the trauma firsthand, the child survivor must write about what they lived through and experienced but cannot remember without the assistance of research or other survivors. This study shows that survivors continue to demonstrate trauma-related paranoia. They fear experiencing another Holocaust. In their minds, they replay the horrors that they had experienced. A pilgrimage to a 20th century Europe, unlike one of the 1940s, causes uncertainty, confusion, and additional paranoia. It is through these findings that it becomes evident that historians must learn to study trauma without placing strict timelines that prevent understanding of how trauma impacts those who have experienced complex trauma.

Keywords: holocaust, generational, memoirs, trauma

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
382 Comparison Approach for Wind Resource Assessment to Determine Most Precise Approach

Authors: Tasir Khan, Ishfaq Ahmad, Yejuan Wang, Muhammad Salam

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Distribution models of the wind speed data are essential to assess the potential wind speed energy because it decreases the uncertainty to estimate wind energy output. Therefore, before performing a detailed potential energy analysis, the precise distribution model for data relating to wind speed must be found. In this research, material from numerous criteria goodness-of-fits, such as Kolmogorov Simonov, Anderson Darling statistics, Chi-Square, root mean square error (RMSE), AIC and BIC were combined finally to determine the wind speed of the best-fitted distribution. The suggested method collectively makes each criterion. This method was useful in a circumstance to fitting 14 distribution models statistically with the data of wind speed together at four sites in Pakistan. The consequences show that this method provides the best source for selecting the most suitable wind speed statistical distribution. Also, the graphical representation is consistent with the analytical results. This research presents three estimation methods that can be used to calculate the different distributions used to estimate the wind. In the suggested MLM, MOM, and MLE the third-order moment used in the wind energy formula is a key function because it makes an important contribution to the precise estimate of wind energy. In order to prove the presence of the suggested MOM, it was compared with well-known estimation methods, such as the method of linear moment, and maximum likelihood estimate. In the relative analysis, given to several goodness-of-fit, the presentation of the considered techniques is estimated on the actual wind speed evaluated in different time periods. The results obtained show that MOM certainly provides a more precise estimation than other familiar approaches in terms of estimating wind energy based on the fourteen distributions. Therefore, MOM can be used as a better technique for assessing wind energy.

Keywords: wind-speed modeling, goodness of fit, maximum likelihood method, linear moment

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381 Maintenance Wrench Time Improvement Project

Authors: Awadh O. Al-Anazi

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As part of the organizational needs toward successful maintaining activities, a proper management system need to be put in place, ensuring the effectiveness of maintenance activities. The management system shall clearly describes the process of identifying, prioritizing, planning, scheduling, execution, and providing valuable feedback for all maintenance activities. Completion and accuracy of the system with proper implementation shall provide the organization with a strong platform for effective maintenance activities that are resulted in efficient outcomes toward business success. The purpose of this research was to introduce a practical tool for measuring the maintenance efficiency level within Saudi organizations. A comprehensive study was launched across many maintenance professionals throughout Saudi leading organizations. The study covered five main categories: work process, identification, planning and scheduling, execution, and performance monitoring. Each category was evaluated across many dimensions to determine its current effectiveness through a five-level scale from 'process is not there' to 'mature implementation'. Wide participation was received, responses were analyzed, and the study was concluded by highlighting major gaps and improvement opportunities within Saudi organizations. One effective implementation of the efficiency enhancement efforts was deployed in Saudi Kayan (one of Sabic affiliates). Below details describes the project outcomes: SK overall maintenance wrench time was measured at 20% (on average) from the total daily working time. The assessment indicates the appearance of several organizational gaps, such as a high amount of reactive work, poor coordination and teamwork, Unclear roles and responsibilities, as well as underutilization of resources. Multidiscipline team was assigned to design and implement an appropriate work process that is capable to govern the execution process, improve the maintenance workforce efficiency, and maximize wrench time (targeting > 50%). The enhanced work process was introduced through brainstorming and wide benchmarking, incorporated with a proper change management plan and leadership sponsorship. The project was completed in 2018. Achieved Results: SK WT was improved to 50%, which resulted in 1) reducing the Average Notification completion time. 2) reducing maintenance expenses on OT and manpower support (3.6 MSAR Actual Saving from Budget within 6 months).

Keywords: efficiency, enhancement, maintenance, work force, wrench time

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380 Experiences of Homophobia, Machismo and Misogyny in Tourist Destinations: A Netnography in a Facebook Community of LGBT Backpackers

Authors: Renan De Caldas Honorato, Ana Augusta Ferreira De Freitas

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Homosexuality is still criminalized in a large number of countries. In some of them, being gay or lesbian can even be punished by death. Added to this context, the experiences of social discrimination faced by the LGBT population, including homophobia, machismo and misogyny, cause numerous restrictions throughout their lives. The possibility of confronting these challenges in moments that should be pleasant, such as on a trip or on vacation, is unpleasant, to say the least. In the current scenario of intensifying the use of Social network sites (SNSs) to search for information, including in the tourist area, this work aims to analyze the sharing of tourist experiences with situations of confrontation and perceptions of homophobia, machismo and misogyny, and restrictions suffered in tourist destinations. The fieldwork is a community of LGBT backpackers based on Facebook. Netnography was the core method adopted. A qualitative approach was conducted and 463 publications posted from January to December 2020 were assessed through the computer-mediated discourse analysis (CMDA). The results suggest that these publications exist to identify the potential exposure to these offensive behaviors while traveling. Individuals affirm that the laws, positive or not, in relation to the LGBT public are not the only factors for a place to be defined as safe or not for gay travelers. The social situation of a country and its laws are quite different and this is the main target of these publications. The perception of others about the chosen destination is more important than knowing your rights and the legal status of each country and it also lessens uncertainty, even when they are never totally confident when choosing a travel destination. In certain circumstances, sexual orientation also needs to be protected from the judgment of hosts and residents. The systemic treatment of homophobic behavior and the construction of a more inclusive society are urgent.

Keywords: homophobia, hospitality, machismo, misogyny

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379 Development of Three-Dimensional Groundwater Model for Al-Corridor Well Field, Amman–Zarqa Basin

Authors: Moayyad Shawaqfah, Ibtehal Alqdah, Amjad Adaileh

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Coridoor area (400 km2) lies to the north – east of Amman (60 km). It lies between 285-305 E longitude and 165-185 N latitude (according to Palestine Grid). It been subjected to exploitation of groundwater from new eleven wells since the 1999 with a total discharge of 11 MCM in addition to the previous discharge rate from the well field 14.7 MCM. Consequently, the aquifer balance is disturbed and a major decline in water level. Therefore, suitable groundwater resources management is required to overcome the problems of over pumping and its effect on groundwater quality. Three–dimensional groundwater flow model Processing Modeflow for Windows Pro (PMWIN PRO, 2003) has been used in order to calculate the groundwater budget, aquifer characteristics, and to predict the aquifer response under different stresses for the next 20 years (2035). The model was calibrated for steady state conditions by trial and error calibration. The calibration was performed by matching observed and calculated initial heads for year 2001. Drawdown data for period 2001-2010 were used to calibrate transient model by matching calculated with observed one, after that, the transient model was validated by using the drawdown data for the period 2011-2014. The hydraulic conductivities of the Basalt- A7/B2 aquifer System are ranging between 1.0 and 8.0 m/day. The low conductivity value was found at the north-west and south-western parts of the study area, the high conductivity value was found at north-western corner of the study area and the average storage coefficient is about 0.025. The water balance for the Basalt and B2/A7 formation at steady state condition with a discrepancy of 0.003%. The major inflows come from Jebal Al Arab through the basalt and through the limestone aquifer (B2/A7 12.28 MCMY aquifer and from excess rainfall is about 0.68 MCM/a. While the major outflows from the Basalt-B2/A7 aquifer system are toward Azraq basin with about 5.03 MCMY and leakage to A1/6 aquitard with 7.89 MCMY. Four scenarios have been performed to predict aquifer system responses under different conditions. Scenario no.2 was found to be the best one which indicates that the reduction the abstraction rates by 50% of current withdrawal rate (25.08 MCMY) to 12.54 MCMY. The maximum drawdowns were decreased to reach about, 7.67 and 8.38m in the years 2025 and 2035 respectively.

Keywords: Amman/Zarqa Basin, Jordan, groundwater management, groundwater modeling, modflow

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378 Schedule Risk Management for Complex Projects: The Royal Research Ship: Sir David Attenborough Case Study

Authors: Chatelier Charlene, Oyegoke Adekunle, Ajayi Saheed, Jeffries Andrew

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This study seeks to understand Schedule Risk Assessments as a priori for better performance whilst exploring the strategies employed to deliver complex projects like the New Polar research ship. This high-profile vessel was offered to Natural Environment Research Council and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) by Cammell Laird Shipbuilders. The Research Ship was designed to support science in extreme environments, with the expectancy to provide a wide range of specialist scientific facilities, instruments, and laboratories to conduct research over multiple disciplines. Aim: The focus is to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk on such a Major Project. Hypothesising that "effective management of schedule risk management" could be the most critical factor in determining whether the intended benefits mentioned are delivered within time and cost constraints. Objective 1: Firstly, the study seeks to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk in Major Projects. Objective 2: Secondly, it explores "effective management of schedule risk management" as the most critical factor determining the delivery of intended benefits. Methodology: This study takes a retrospective review of schedule risk management and how it influences project performance using a case study approach for the RRS (Royal Research Ship) Sir David Attenborough. Research Contribution: The outcomes of this study will contribute to a better understanding of project performance whilst building on its under-researched relationship to schedule risk management for complex projects. The outcomes of this paper will guide further research on project performance and enable the understanding of how risk-based estimates over time impact the overall risk management of the project.

Keywords: complexity, major projects, performance management, schedule risk management, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 67