Search results for: auto.arima
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 360

Search results for: auto.arima

210 The Impact of Bitcoin on Stock Market Performance

Authors: Oliver Takawira, Thembi Hope

Abstract:

This study will analyse the relationship between Bitcoin price movements and the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The aim is to determine whether Bitcoin price movements affect the stock market performance. As crypto currencies continue to gain prominence as a safe asset during periods of economic distress, this raises the question of whether Bitcoin’s prosperity could affect investment in the stock market. To identify the existence of a short run and long run linear relationship, the study will apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after testing the data for unit roots and cointegration using the Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP). The Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) will then be used to check if there is a non-linear relationship between bitcoin prices and stock market prices.

Keywords: bitcoin, stock market, interest rates, ARDL

Procedia PDF Downloads 73
209 Ultra High Performance Concrete Using Special Aggregates for Irregular Structures (the New Concrete Technology)

Authors: Arjun, A. D. Singh

Abstract:

Concrete the basic material using in construction across the global these days. The purpose of this special concrete is to provide extra strength and stability for irregular structure where the center of gravity is disturbed. In this paper an effort has been made to use different type of material aggregates has been discussed. We named As "STAR Aggregates" which has qualities to resist Shear, tension and compression forces. We have been divided into coarse aggregates and fine aggregates according to their sizes. Star Aggregates has interlocking behavior and cutting edge technology. Star aggregates had been draft and deign in Auto CAD and then analysis in ANSYS software. by using special aggregates we deign concrete grade of M40 for mega structures and irregular structure. This special concrete with STAR aggregates use in construction for irregular structure like Bridges, Skyscrapers or in deigned buildings.

Keywords: star aggregates, high performance concrete, material aggregates, interlocking

Procedia PDF Downloads 537
208 A Review of the Parameters Used in Gateway Selection Schemes for Internet Connected MANETs

Authors: Zainab S. Mahmood, Aisha H. Hashim, Wan Haslina Hassan, Farhat Anwar

Abstract:

The wide use of the internet-based applications bring many challenges to the researchers to guarantee the continuity of the connections needed by the mobile hosts and provide reliable Internet access for them. One of proposed solutions by Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) is to connect the local, multi-hop, and infrastructure-less Mobile Ad hoc Network (MANET) with Internet structure. This connection is done through multi-interface devices known as Internet Gateways. Many issues are related to this connection like gateway discovery, hand off, address auto-configuration and selecting the optimum gateway when multiple gateways exist. Many studies were done proposing gateway selection schemes with a single selection criterion or weighted multiple criteria. In this research, a review of some of these schemes is done showing the differences, the features, the challenges and the drawbacks of each of them.

Keywords: Internet Gateway, MANET, mobility, selection criteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
207 Nonlinear Modeling of the PEMFC Based on NNARX Approach

Authors: Shan-Jen Cheng, Te-Jen Chang, Kuang-Hsiung Tan, Shou-Ling Kuo

Abstract:

Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is such a time-vary nonlinear dynamic system. The traditional linear modeling approach is hard to estimate structure correctly of PEMFC system. From this reason, this paper presents a nonlinear modeling of the PEMFC using Neural Network Auto-regressive model with eXogenous inputs (NNARX) approach. The multilayer perception (MLP) network is applied to evaluate the structure of the NNARX model of PEMFC. The validity and accuracy of NNARX model are tested by one step ahead relating output voltage to input current from measured experimental of PEMFC. The results show that the obtained nonlinear NNARX model can efficiently approximate the dynamic mode of the PEMFC and model output and system measured output consistently.

Keywords: PEMFC, neural network, nonlinear modeling, NNARX

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
206 Enabling Non-invasive Diagnosis of Thyroid Nodules with High Specificity and Sensitivity

Authors: Sai Maniveer Adapa, Sai Guptha Perla, Adithya Reddy P.

Abstract:

Thyroid nodules can often be diagnosed with ultrasound imaging, although differentiating between benign and malignant nodules can be challenging for medical professionals. This work suggests a novel approach to increase the precision of thyroid nodule identification by combining machine learning and deep learning. The new approach first extracts information from the ultrasound pictures using a deep learning method known as a convolutional autoencoder. A support vector machine, a type of machine learning model, is then trained using these features. With an accuracy of 92.52%, the support vector machine can differentiate between benign and malignant nodules. This innovative technique may decrease the need for pointless biopsies and increase the accuracy of thyroid nodule detection.

Keywords: thyroid tumor diagnosis, ultrasound images, deep learning, machine learning, convolutional auto-encoder, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 20
205 A Time-Varying and Non-Stationary Convolution Spectral Mixture Kernel for Gaussian Process

Authors: Kai Chen, Shuguang Cui, Feng Yin

Abstract:

Gaussian process (GP) with spectral mixture (SM) kernel demonstrates flexible non-parametric Bayesian learning ability in modeling unknown function. In this work a novel time-varying and non-stationary convolution spectral mixture (TN-CSM) kernel with a significant enhancing of interpretability by using process convolution is introduced. A way decomposing the SM component into an auto-convolution of base SM component and parameterizing it to be input dependent is outlined. Smoothly, performing a convolution between two base SM component yields a novel structure of non-stationary SM component with much better generalized expression and interpretation. The TN-CSM perfectly allows compatibility with the stationary SM kernel in terms of kernel form and spectral base ignored and confused by previous non-stationary kernels. On synthetic and real-world datatsets, experiments show the time-varying characteristics of hyper-parameters in TN-CSM and compare the learning performance of TN-CSM with popular and representative non-stationary GP.

Keywords: Gaussian process, spectral mixture, non-stationary, convolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
204 Incorporating Anomaly Detection in a Digital Twin Scenario Using Symbolic Regression

Authors: Manuel Alves, Angelica Reis, Armindo Lobo, Valdemar Leiras

Abstract:

In industry 4.0, it is common to have a lot of sensor data. In this deluge of data, hints of possible problems are difficult to spot. The digital twin concept aims to help answer this problem, but it is mainly used as a monitoring tool to handle the visualisation of data. Failure detection is of paramount importance in any industry, and it consumes a lot of resources. Any improvement in this regard is of tangible value to the organisation. The aim of this paper is to add the ability to forecast test failures, curtailing detection times. To achieve this, several anomaly detection algorithms were compared with a symbolic regression approach. To this end, Isolation Forest, One-Class SVM and an auto-encoder have been explored. For the symbolic regression PySR library was used. The first results show that this approach is valid and can be added to the tools available in this context as a low resource anomaly detection method since, after training, the only requirement is the calculation of a polynomial, a useful feature in the digital twin context.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, industry 4.0, symbolic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
203 A Comparative Study between Different Techniques of Off-Page and On-Page Search Engine Optimization

Authors: Ahmed Ishtiaq, Maeeda Khalid, Umair Sajjad

Abstract:

In the fast-moving world, information is the key to success. If information is easily available, then it makes work easy. The Internet is the biggest collection and source of information nowadays, and with every single day, the data on internet increases, and it becomes difficult to find required data. Everyone wants to make his/her website at the top of search results. This can be possible when you have applied some techniques of SEO inside your application or outside your application, which are two types of SEO, onsite and offsite SEO. SEO is an abbreviation of Search Engine Optimization, and it is a set of techniques, methods to increase users of a website on World Wide Web or to rank up your website in search engine indexing. In this paper, we have compared different techniques of Onpage and Offpage SEO, and we have suggested many things that should be changed inside webpage, outside web page and mentioned some most powerful and search engine considerable elements and techniques in both types of SEO in order to gain high ranking on Search Engine.

Keywords: auto-suggestion, search engine optimization, SEO, query, web mining, web crawler

Procedia PDF Downloads 114
202 A Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Model Optimized by Genetic Algorithm for Significant Wave Height Prediction

Authors: Luis C. Parra

Abstract:

The significant wave height prediction is an issue of great interest in the field of coastal activities because of the non-linear behavior of the wave height and its complexity of prediction. This study aims to present a machine learning model to forecast the significant wave height of the oceanographic wave measuring buoys anchored at Mooloolaba of the Queensland Government Data. Modeling was performed by a multilayer perceptron neural network-genetic algorithm (GA-MLP), considering Relu(x) as the activation function of the MLPNN. The GA is in charge of optimized the MLPNN hyperparameters (learning rate, hidden layers, neurons, and activation functions) and wrapper feature selection for the window width size. Results are assessed using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The GAMLPNN algorithm was performed with a population size of thirty individuals for eight generations for the prediction optimization of 5 steps forward, obtaining a performance evaluation of 0.00104 MSE, 0.03222 RMSE, 0.02338 MAE, and 0.71163% of MAPE. The results of the analysis suggest that the MLPNNGA model is effective in predicting significant wave height in a one-step forecast with distant time windows, presenting 0.00014 MSE, 0.01180 RMSE, 0.00912 MAE, and 0.52500% of MAPE with 0.99940 of correlation factor. The GA-MLP algorithm was compared with the ARIMA forecasting model, presenting better performance criteria in all performance criteria, validating the potential of this algorithm.

Keywords: significant wave height, machine learning optimization, multilayer perceptron neural networks, evolutionary algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 68
201 A Spatial Information Network Traffic Prediction Method Based on Hybrid Model

Authors: Jingling Li, Yi Zhang, Wei Liang, Tao Cui, Jun Li

Abstract:

Compared with terrestrial network, the traffic of spatial information network has both self-similarity and short correlation characteristics. By studying its traffic prediction method, the resource utilization of spatial information network can be improved, and the method can provide an important basis for traffic planning of a spatial information network. In this paper, considering the accuracy and complexity of the algorithm, the spatial information network traffic is decomposed into approximate component with long correlation and detail component with short correlation, and a time series hybrid prediction model based on wavelet decomposition is proposed to predict the spatial network traffic. Firstly, the original traffic data are decomposed to approximate components and detail components by using wavelet decomposition algorithm. According to the autocorrelation and partial correlation smearing and truncation characteristics of each component, the corresponding model (AR/MA/ARMA) of each detail component can be directly established, while the type of approximate component modeling can be established by ARIMA model after smoothing. Finally, the prediction results of the multiple models are fitted to obtain the prediction results of the original data. The method not only considers the self-similarity of a spatial information network, but also takes into account the short correlation caused by network burst information, which is verified by using the measured data of a certain back bone network released by the MAWI working group in 2018. Compared with the typical time series model, the predicted data of hybrid model is closer to the real traffic data and has a smaller relative root means square error, which is more suitable for a spatial information network.

Keywords: spatial information network, traffic prediction, wavelet decomposition, time series model

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
200 Separate Powers Control Structure of DFIG Based on Fractional Regulator Fed by Multilevel Inverters DC Bus Voltages of a photovoltaic System

Authors: S. Ghoudelbourk, A. Omeiri, D. Dib, H. Cheghib

Abstract:

This paper shows that we can improve the performance of the auto-adjustable electric machines if a fractional dynamic is considered in the algorithm of the controlling order. This structure is particularly interested in the separate control of active and reactive power of the double-fed induction generator (DFIG) of wind power conversion chain. Fractional regulators are used in the regulation of chain of powers. Knowing that, usually, the source of DFIG is provided by converters through controlled rectifiers, all this system makes the currents of lines strongly polluted that can have a harmful effect for the connected loads and sensitive equipment nearby. The solution to overcome these problems is to replace the power of the rotor DFIG by multilevel inverters supplied by PV which improve the THD. The structure of the adopted adjustment is tested using Matlab/Simulink and the results are presented and analyzed for a variable wind.

Keywords: DFIG, fractional regulator, multilevel inverters, PV

Procedia PDF Downloads 380
199 Energy Recovery from Swell with a Height Inferior to 1.5 m

Authors: A. Errasti, F. Doffagne, O. Foucrier, S. Kao, A. Meigne, H. Pellae, T. Rouland

Abstract:

Renewable energy recovery is an important domain of research in past few years in view of protection of our ecosystem. Several industrial companies are setting up widespread recovery systems to exploit wave energy. Most of them have a large size, are implanted near the shores and exploit current flows. However, as oceans represent 70% of Earth surface, a huge space is still unexploited to produce energy. Present analysis focuses on surface small scale wave energy recovery. The principle is exactly the opposite of wheel damper for a car on a road. Instead of maintaining the car body as non-oscillatory as possible by adapted control, a system is designed so that its oscillation amplitude under wave action will be maximized with respect to a boat carrying it in view of differential potential energy recuperation. From parametric analysis of system equations, interesting domains have been selected and expected energy output has been evaluated.

Keywords: small scale wave, potential energy, optimized energy recovery, auto-adaptive system

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
198 Preparation and Characterization of Lanthanum Aluminate Electrolyte Material for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

Authors: Onkar Nath Verma, Nitish Kumar Singh, Raghvendra, Pravin Kumar, Prabhakar Singh

Abstract:

The perovskite type electrolyte material LaAlO3 was prepared by solution based auto-combustion method using Al (NO3)3.6H2O, La2O3 with dilute nitrate acid (HNO3) as precursors and citric acid (C6H8O7.H2O) as a fuel. The synthesis protocol gave an easy processing of the LaAlO3 nano-particles. The XRD measurement revealed that the material has single phase with space group R-3c (rhombohedral). Thermal behavior was measured by simultaneous differential thermal analysis and thermo gravimetric analysis (DTA-TGA). The compact pellet density was determined. Also, the surface morphology was studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The conductivity of LaAlO3 was measured employing LCR meter and found to increase with increasing temperature. This increase in conductivity may be attributed to increased mobility of oxide ion.

Keywords: perovskite, LaAlO3, XRD, SEM, DTA-TGA, SOFC

Procedia PDF Downloads 475
197 Stock Price Prediction with 'Earnings' Conference Call Sentiment

Authors: Sungzoon Cho, Hye Jin Lee, Sungwhan Jeon, Dongyoung Min, Sungwon Lyu

Abstract:

Major public corporations worldwide use conference calls to report their quarterly earnings. These 'earnings' conference calls allow for questions from stock analysts. We investigated if it is possible to identify sentiment from the call script and use it to predict stock price movement. We analyzed call scripts from six companies, two each from Korea, China and Indonesia during six years 2011Q1 – 2017Q2. Random forest with Frequency-based sentiment scores using Loughran MacDonald Dictionary did better than control model with only financial indicators. When the stock prices went up 20 days from earnings release, our model predicted correctly 77% of time. When the model predicted 'up,' actual stock prices went up 65% of time. This preliminary result encourages us to investigate advanced sentiment scoring methodologies such as topic modeling, auto-encoder, and word2vec variants.

Keywords: earnings call script, random forest, sentiment analysis, stock price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 268
196 Efficient Internal Generator Based on Random Selection of an Elliptic Curve

Authors: Mustapha Benssalah, Mustapha Djeddou, Karim Drouiche

Abstract:

The random number generation (RNG) presents a significant importance for the security and the privacy of numerous applications, such as RFID technology and smart cards. Since, the quality of the generated bit sequences is paramount that a weak internal generator for example, can directly cause the entire application to be insecure, and thus it makes no sense to employ strong algorithms for the application. In this paper, we propose a new pseudo random number generator (PRNG), suitable for cryptosystems ECC-based, constructed by randomly selecting points from several elliptic curves randomly selected. The main contribution of this work is the increasing of the generator internal states by extending the set of its output realizations to several curves auto-selected. The quality and the statistical characteristics of the proposed PRNG are validated using the Chi-square goodness of fit test and the empirical Special Publication 800-22 statistical test suite issued by NIST.

Keywords: PRNG, security, cryptosystem, ECC

Procedia PDF Downloads 416
195 Usage of Military Spending, Debt Servicing and Growth for Dealing with Emergency Plan of Indian External Debt

Authors: Sahbi Farhani

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India.

Keywords: external debt, military spending, ARDL approach, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
194 Synthetic Daily Flow Duration Curves for the Çoruh River Basin, Turkey

Authors: Ibrahim Can, Fatih Tosunoğlu

Abstract:

The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95 % of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
193 Cloud Monitoring and Performance Optimization Ensuring High Availability and Security

Authors: Inayat Ur Rehman, Georgia Sakellari

Abstract:

Cloud computing has evolved into a vital technology for businesses, offering scalability, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness. However, maintaining high availability and optimal performance in the cloud is crucial for reliable services. This paper explores the significance of cloud monitoring and performance optimization in sustaining the high availability of cloud-based systems. It discusses diverse monitoring tools, techniques, and best practices for continually assessing the health and performance of cloud resources. The paper also delves into performance optimization strategies, including resource allocation, load balancing, and auto-scaling, to ensure efficient resource utilization and responsiveness. Addressing potential challenges in cloud monitoring and optimization, the paper offers insights into data security and privacy considerations. Through this thorough analysis, the paper aims to underscore the importance of cloud monitoring and performance optimization for ensuring a seamless and highly available cloud computing environment.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud monitoring, performance optimization, high availability

Procedia PDF Downloads 23
192 Dynamical Heterogeneity and Aging in Turbulence with a Nambu-Goldstone Mode

Authors: Fahrudin Nugroho, Halim Hamadi, Yusril Yusuf, Pekik Nurwantoro, Ari Setiawan, Yoshiki Hidaka

Abstract:

We investigate the Nikolaevskiy equation numerically using exponential time differencing method and pseudo-spectral method. This equation develops a long-wavelength modulation that behaves as a Nambu–Goldstone mode, and short-wavelength instability and exhibit turbulence. Using the autocorrelation analysis, the statistical properties of the turbulence governed by the equation are investigated. The autocorrelation then has been fitted with The Kohlrausch– Williams–Watts (KWW) expression. By varying the control parameter, we show a transition from compressed to stretched exponential for the auto-correlation function of Nikolaevskiy turbulence. The compressed exponential is an indicator of the existence of dynamical heterogeneity while the stretched indicates aging process. Thereby, we revealed the existence of dynamical heterogeneity and aging in the turbulence governed by Nikolaevskiy equation.

Keywords: compressed exponential, dynamical heterogeneity, Nikolaevskiy equation, stretched exponential, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
191 Knowledge-Based Virtual Community System (KBVCS) for Enhancing Knowledge Sharing in Mechatronics System Diagnostic and Repair: A Case of Automobile

Authors: Adedeji W. Oyediran, Yekini N. Asafe

Abstract:

Mechatronics is synergistic integration of mechanical engineering, with electronics and intelligent computer control in the design and manufacturing of industrial products and processes. Automobile (auto car, motor car or car is a wheeled motor vehicle used for transporting passengers, which also carries its own engine or motor) is a mechatronic system which served as major means of transportation around the world. Virtually all community has a need for automobile. This makes automobile issues as related to diagnostic and repair interesting to all communities. Consequent to the diversification of skill in diagnosing automobile faults and approaches in solving some problems and innovation in automobile industry. It is appropriate to say that repair and diagnostic of automobile will be better enhanced if community has opportunity of sharing knowledge and idea globally. This paper discussed the desirable elements in automobile as mechatronics system and present conceptual framework of virtual community model for automobile users.

Keywords: automobile, automobile users, knowledge sharing, mechatronics system, virtual community

Procedia PDF Downloads 479
190 Spatial Time Series Models for Rice and Cassava Yields Based on Bayesian Linear Mixed Models

Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 373
189 A Trend Based Forecasting Framework of the ATA Method and Its Performance on the M3-Competition Data

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
188 Forecasting Model to Predict Dengue Incidence in Malaysia

Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

Abstract:

Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 447
187 Load Forecasting in Microgrid Systems with R and Cortana Intelligence Suite

Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

Abstract:

Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure Machine Learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 272
186 Automatic API Regression Analyzer and Executor

Authors: Praveena Sridhar, Nihar Devathi, Parikshit Chakraborty

Abstract:

As the software product changes versions across releases, there are changes to the API’s and features and the upgrades become necessary. Hence, it becomes imperative to get the impact of upgrading the dependent components. This tool finds out API changes across two versions and their impact on other API’s followed by execution of the automated regression suites relevant to updates and their impacted areas. This tool has 4 layer architecture, each layer with its own unique pre-assigned capability which it does and sends the required information to next layer. This are the 4 layers. 1) Comparator: Compares the two versions of API. 2) Analyzer: Analyses the API doc and gives the modified class and its dependencies along with implemented interface details. 3) Impact Filter: Find the impact of the modified class on the other API methods. 4) Auto Executer: Based on the output given by Impact Filter, Executor will run the API regression Suite. Tool reads the java doc and extracts the required information of classes, interfaces and enumerations. The extracted information is saved into a data structure which shows the class details and its dependencies along with interfaces and enumerations that are listed in the java doc.

Keywords: automation impact regression, java doc, executor, analyzer, layers

Procedia PDF Downloads 461
185 Rock Thickness Measurement by Using Self-Excited Acoustical System

Authors: Janusz Kwaśniewski, Ireneusz Dominik, Krzysztof Lalik

Abstract:

The knowledge about rock layers thickness, especially above drilled mining pavements are crucial for workers safety. The measuring systems used nowadays are generally imperfect and there is a strong demand for improvement. The application of a new type of a measurement system called Self-Excited Acoustical System is presented in the paper. The system was applied until now to monitor stress changes in metal and concrete constructions. The change in measurement methodology resulted in possibility of measuring the thickness of the rocks above the tunnels as well as thickness of a singular rock layer. The idea is to find two resonance frequencies of the self-exited system, which consists of a vibration exciter and vibration receiver placed at a distance, which are coupled with a proper power amplifier, and which operate in a closed loop with a positive feedback. The resonance with the higher amplitude determines thickness of the whole rock, whereas the lower amplitude resonance indicates thickness of a singular layer. The results of the laboratory tests conducted on a group of different rock materials are also presented.

Keywords: auto-oscillator, non-destructive testing, rock thickness measurement, geotechnic

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
184 Proposal for Knowledge-Based Virtual Community System (KBVCS) for Enhancing Knowledge Sharing in Mechatronics System Diagnostic and Repair

Authors: Adetoba B. Tiwalola, Adedeji W. Oyediran, Yekini N. Asafe, Akinwole A. Kikelomo

Abstract:

Mechatronics is synergistic integration of mechanical engineering, with electronics and intelligent computer control in the design and manufacturing of industrial products and processes. Automobile (auto car, motor car or car is a wheeled motor vehicle used for transporting passengers, which also carries its own engine or motor) is a mechatronic system which served as major means of transportation around the world. Virtually all community has a need for automobile. This makes automobile issues as related to diagnostic and repair interesting to all communities. Consequent to the diversification of skill in diagnosing automobile faults and approaches in solving some problems and innovation in automobile industry. It is appropriate to say that repair and diagnostic of automobile will be better enhanced if community has opportunity of sharing knowledge and idea globally. This paper discussed the desirable elements in automobile as mechatronics system and present conceptual framework of virtual community model for knowledge sharing among automobile users.

Keywords: automobile, automobile users, knowledge sharing, mechatronics system, virtual community

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
183 Petrology and Hydrothermal Alteration Mineral Distribution of Wells LA-9D and LA-10D in Aluto Geothermal Field, Ethiopia

Authors: Dereje Moges Azbite

Abstract:

Laboratory analysis of igneous rocks is performed with the help of the main oxide plots. The lithology of the two wells was identified using the main oxides obtained using the XRF method. Twenty-four (24) cutting samples with different degrees of alteration were analyzed to determine and identify the rock types by plotting these well samples on special diagrams and correlating with the regional rocks. The results for the analysis of the main oxides and trace elements of 24 samples are presented. Alteration analysis in the two well samples was conducted for 21 samples from two wells for identifying clay minerals. Bulk sample analysis indicated quartz, illite & micas, calcite, cristobalite, smectite, pyrite, epidote, alunite, chlorite, wairakite, diaspore and kaolin minerals present in both wells. Hydrothermal clay minerals such as illite, chlorite, smectite and kaoline minerals were identified in both wells by X-ray diffraction.

Keywords: auto geothermal field, igneous rocks, major oxides, tracer elements, XRF, XRD, alteration minerals

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
182 Issues and Challenges of Planning in Commercial Business Districts of Farukh Nagar in Gurugram, Harayana, India

Authors: Adedayo Jeremiah Adeyekun, Samuel Oluwagbemiga Ishola

Abstract:

This research paper focuses on the study of the master plan of rural Farrukhnagar, a town in Gurugram with an aim to proffer solutions to the problems associated with the planning of the town. The commercial zone has been selected for the case study. The findings from the case studies will reveal problems that will require a proposed design of a new ultra-modern market to position traders selling along the road in well-deserved stalls, waste disposal/incinerator system for proper management of waste and cleanliness within the market square, design of stormwater drainage to avoid flood during the rainy season and the design of car/auto – tricycle parks to create more space in the existing market cycle and thereby avoiding congestion. The research proposes urban and architectural solutions to improve the rural commercial service settings in Farrukhnagar which is a study area in Gurugram, Haryana, India.

Keywords: management, commercial, service, planning, congestion

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181 Impact of Iron Doping on Induction Heating during Spark Plasma Sintering

Authors: Hua Tan, David Salamon

Abstract:

In this study, γ-Al2O3 powders doped with various amounts of iron were sintered via SPS process. Two heating modes – auto and manual mode were applied to observe the role of electrical induction on heating. Temperature, electric current, and pulse pattern were experimented with grade iron γ-Al2O3 powders. Phase transformation of γ to α -Al2O3 serves as a direct indicator of internal temperature, independently on measured outside temperature. That pulsing in SPS is also able to induce internal heating due to its strong electromagnetic field when dopants are conductive metals (e.g., iron) is proofed during SPS. Density and microstructure were investigated to explain the mechanism of induction heating. In addition, the role of electric pulsing and strong electromagnetic field on internal heating (induction heating) were compared and discussed. Internal heating by iron doping within electrically nonconductive samples is able to decrease sintering temperature and save energy, furthermore it is one explanation for unique features of this material fabrication technology.

Keywords: spark plasma sintering, induction heating, alumina, microstructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 302