Search results for: auto.arima

Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König

Abstract:

As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focuses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.

Keywords: auto-ID, construction logistic, fuzzy, monitoring, RFID, scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 482

Authors: Tie-Qing Zhang, Seunghun Jung, Young-Bae Kim

Abstract:

This research is devoted to developing a membrane reactor to flexibly meet the hydrogen demand of onboard fuel cells, which is an important part of green energy development. Among many renewable chemical products, dimethyl ether (DME) has the advantages of low reaction temperature (400 °C in this study), high hydrogen atom content, low toxicity, and easy preparation. Autothermal reforming, on the other hand, has a high hydrogen recovery rate and exhibits thermal neutrality during the reaction process, so the additional heat source in the hydrogen production process can be omitted. Therefore, the DME auto thermal reforming process was adopted in this study. To control the temperature of the reaction catalyst bed and hydrogen production rate, a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme was designed. Taking the above two variables as the control objectives, stable operation of the reformer can be achieved by controlling the flow rates of DME, steam, and high-purity air in real-time. To prevent catalyst poisoning in the fuel cell, the hydrogen needs to be purified to reduce the carbon monoxide content to below 50 ppm. Therefore, a Pd-Ag hydrogen semi-permeable membrane with a thickness of 3-5 μm was inserted into the auto thermal reactor, and the permeation efficiency of hydrogen was improved by steam purging on the permeation side. Finally, hydrogen with a purity of 99.99 was obtained.

Keywords: hydrogen production, auto thermal reforming, membrane, fuel cell

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to developed an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: river flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Muhammad Ajmair

Abstract:

This empirical study followed structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach proposed by the so-called AB-model of Amisano and Giannini (1997) to check the impact of relevant macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Pakistan. Before that auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing technique and time varying parametric approach along with general to specific approach was employed to find out relevant significant determinants of economic growth. To our best knowledge, no author made such a study that employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing and time varying parametric approach with general to specific approach in empirical literature, but current study will bridge this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. The widely-used Schwarz information criterion and Akaike information criterion were considered for the lag length in each estimated equation. Main findings of the study are that remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation are found to be the best relevant positive and significant determinants of economic growth. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on overall economic growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector.

Keywords: economic growth, gross national expenditures, inflation, remittances

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Amartya Hatua, Trung Nguyen, Andrew Sung

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the information diffusion process on Twitter as a multivariate time series problem. Our model concerns three measures (volume, network influence, and sentiment of tweets) based on 10 features, and we collected 27 million tweets to build our information diffusion time series dataset for analysis. Then, different time series clustering techniques with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance were used to identify different patterns of information diffusion. Finally, we built the information diffusion prediction models for new hashtags which comprise two phrases: The first phrase is recognizing the pattern using k-NN with DTW distance; the second phrase is building the forecasting model using the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the non-linear recurrent neural network of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Preliminary results of performance evaluation between different forecasting models show that LSTM with clustering information notably outperforms other models. Therefore, our approach can be applied in real-world applications to analyze and predict the information diffusion characteristics of selected topics or memes (hashtags) in Twitter.

Keywords: ARIMA, DTW, information diffusion, LSTM, RNN, time series clustering, time series forecasting, Twitter

Procedia PDF Downloads 361

Authors: Toshiya Kawato, Shin-ichi Motomura, Masayuki Higashino, Takao Kawamura

Abstract:

Storage for storing data is indispensable. If a storage capacity becomes insufficient, we can increase its capacity by adding new disks. It is, however, difficult to add a new disk when a budget is not enough. On the other hand, there are many unused idle resources such as used personal computers despite those use value. In order to solve those problems, used personal computers can be reused as storage. In this paper, we attempt to reuse used-PCs as a distributed storage. First, we list up the characteristics of used-PCs and design a storage system that utilizes its characteristics. Next, we experimentally implement an auto-construction system that automatically constructs a distributed storage environment in used-PCs.

Keywords: distributed storage, used personal computer, idle resource, auto construction

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: Giovanni Cicceri, Roberta Maisano, Nathalie Morey, Salvatore Distefano

Abstract:

The main goal of this paper is to present a solution for a water purification system based on an Environmental Internet of Things (EIoT) platform to monitor and control water quality and machine learning (ML) models to support decision making and speed up the processes of purification of water. A real case study has been implemented by deploying an EIoT platform and a network of devices, called Gramb meters and belonging to the Gramb project, on wastewater purification systems located in Calabria, south of Italy. The data thus collected are used to control the wastewater quality, detect anomalies and predict the behaviour of the purification system. To this extent, three different statistical and machine learning models have been adopted and thus compared: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoder, and Facebook Prophet (FP). The results demonstrated that the ML solution (LSTM) out-perform classical statistical approaches (ARIMA, FP), in terms of both accuracy, efficiency and effectiveness in monitoring and controlling the wastewater purification processes.

Keywords: environmental internet of things, EIoT, machine learning, anomaly detection, environment monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Slawomir Pilip, Michal Wasilewski, Daniel Celinski, Leszek Szpakowski, Grzegorz Michalak

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resuscitation taken by Medical Emergency Teams (MET) at the place of an accident including the usage of mechanical chest compression systems. In the period of January-May 2017, there were 137 cases of a sudden cardiac arrest in a chosen region of Eastern Poland with 360.000 inhabitants. Medical records and questionnaires filled by METs were analysed to prove the effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resuscitations that were considered to be effective when an early indication of spontaneous circulation was provided and the patient was taken to hospital. A chest compression system used by METs was applied in 60 cases (Lucas3 - 34 patients; Auto Pulse - 24 patients). The effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resuscitation among patients who were employed a chest compression system was much higher (43,3%) than the manual cardiac massage (36,4%). Thus, the usage of Lucas3 chest compression system resulted in 47% while Auto Pulse was 33,3%. The average ambulance arrival time could have had a significant impact on the subsequent effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resuscitation in these cases. Ambulances equipped with Lucas3 reached the destination within 8 minutes, and those with Auto Pulse needed 12,1 minutes. Moreover, taking effective basic life support (BLS) by bystanders before the ambulance arrival was much more frequent for ambulances with Lucas3 than Auto Pulse. Therefore, the percentage of BLS among the group of patients who were employed Lucas3 by METs was 26,5%, and 20,8% for Auto Pulse. The total percentage of taking BLS by bystanders before the ambulance arrival resulted in 25% of patients who were later applied a chest compression system by METs. Not only was shockable cardiac rhythm obtained in 47% of these cases, but an early indication of spontaneous circulation was also provided in all these patients. Both Lucas3 and Auto Pulse were evaluated to be significantly useful in improving the effectiveness of cardiopulmonary resuscitation by 97% of Medical Emergency Teams. Therefore, implementation of chest compression systems essentially makes the cardiopulmonary resuscitation even more effective. The ambulance arrival time, taking successful BLS by bystanders before the ambulance arrival and the presence of shockable cardiac rhythm determine an early indication of spontaneous circulation among patients after a sudden cardiac arrest.

Keywords: cardiac arrest, effectiveness, mechanical chest compression systems, resuscitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Md. Shafiullah, M. Shafiul Alam, Bandar Suliman Alsharif

Abstract:

Electrical quantities such as frequency, voltage, current are being fluctuated due to abnormalities in power system. Most of the abnormalities cause fluctuation in system frequency and sometimes extreme abnormalities lead to system blackout. To protect the system from complete blackout planned and proper islanding plays a very important role even in case of extreme abnormalities. Islanding operation not only helps stabilizing a faulted system but also supports power supplies to critical and important loads, in extreme emergency. But the islanding systems are weaker than integrated system so the stability of islands is the prime concern when an integrated system is disintegrated. In this paper, different impacts on a load rich island have been studied and a frequency based auto-load shedding scheme has been developed for sudden load addition, generation outage and combined effect of both to the island. The developed scheme has been applied to Khulna-Barisal Island to validate the effectiveness of the developed technique. Various types of abnormalities to the test system have been simulated and for the simulation purpose CYME PSAF (Power System Analysis Framework) has been used.

Keywords: auto load shedding, FS&FD relay, impact study, island, PSAF, ROCOF

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Leila Momenzadeh, Alexander V. Evteev, Elena V. Levchenko, Tanvir Ahmed, Irina Belova, Graeme Murch

Abstract:

In this work, the phonon thermal conductivity of f.c.c. Al is investigated in detail in the temperature range 100 – 900 K within the framework of equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations making use of the Green-Kubo formalism and one of the most reliable embedded-atom method potentials. It is found that the heat current auto-correlation function of the f.c.c. Al model demonstrates a two-stage temporal decay similar to the previously observed for f.c.c Cu model. After the first stage of decay, the heat current auto-correlation function of the f.c.c. Al model demonstrates a peak in the temperature range 100-800 K. The intensity of the peak decreases as the temperature increases. At 900 K, it transforms to a shoulder. To describe the observed two-stage decay of the heat current auto-correlation function of the f.c.c. Al model, we employ decomposition model recently developed for phonon-mediated thermal transport in a monoatomic lattice. We found that the electronic contribution to the total thermal conductivity of f.c.c. Al dominates over the whole studied temperature range. However, the phonon contribution to the total thermal conductivity of f.c.c. Al increases as temperature decreases. It is about 1.05% at 900 K and about 12.5% at 100 K.

Keywords: aluminum, gGreen-Kubo formalism, molecular dynamics, phonon thermal conductivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Sara ElElimy, Samir Moustafa

Abstract:

Mobile network operators start to face many challenges in the digital era, especially with high demands from customers. Since mobile network operators are considered a source of big data, traditional techniques are not effective with new era of big data, Internet of things (IoT) and 5G; as a result, handling effectively different big datasets becomes a vital task for operators with the continuous growth of data and moving from long term evolution (LTE) to 5G. So, there is an urgent need for effective Big data analytics to predict future demands, traffic, and network performance to full fill the requirements of the fifth generation of mobile network technology. In this paper, we introduce data science techniques using machine learning and deep learning algorithms: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Bayesian-based curve fitting, and recurrent neural network (RNN) are employed for a data-driven application to mobile network operators. The main framework included in models are identification parameters of each model, estimation, prediction, and final data-driven application of this prediction from business and network performance applications. These models are applied to Telecom Italia Big Data challenge call detail records (CDRs) datasets. The performance of these models is found out using a specific well-known evaluation criteria shows that ARIMA (machine learning-based model) is more accurate as a predictive model in such a dataset than the RNN (deep learning model).

Keywords: big data analytics, machine learning, CDRs, 5G

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Yousef I. Salamin

Abstract:

Theoretical investigations, analytical as well as numerical, have shown that electrons can be accelerated to GeV energies by the process of cyclotron auto-resonance acceleration (CARA). In CARA, the particle would be injected along the lines of a uniform magnetic field aligned parallel to the direction of propagation of a plane-wave radiation field. Unfortunately, an accelerator based on CARA would be prohibitively too long and too expensive to build and maintain. However, the process stands a better chance of success near the polar cap of a compact object (such as a neutron star, a black hole or a magnetar) or in an environment created in the wake of a binary neutron-star or blackhole merger. Dynamics of the nuclides ₁H¹, ₂He⁴, ₂₆Fe⁵⁶, and ₂₈Ni⁶², in such astrophysical conditions, have been investigated by single-particle calculations and many-particle simulations. The investigations show that these nuclides can reach ZeV energies (1 ZeV = 10²¹ eV) due to interaction with super-intense radiation of wavelengths = 1 and 10 m and = 50 pm and magnetic fields of strengths at the mega- and giga-tesla levels. Examples employing radiation intensities in the range 10³²-10⁴² W/m² have been used. Employing a two-parameter model for representing the radiation field, CARA is analytically generalized to include any state of polarization, and the basic working equations are derived rigorously and in closed analytic form.

Keywords: compact objects, cosmic-ray acceleration, cyclotron auto-resonance, polarization effects, zevatron

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Katsumi Hirata

Abstract:

To develop the useful acoustic environmental recognition system, the method of estimating 3D-position of a stationary random acoustic source using bispectral analysis of 4-point detected signals is proposed. The method uses information about amplitude attenuation and propagation delay extracted from amplitude ratios and angles of auto- and cross-bispectra of the detected signals. It is expected that using bispectral analysis affects less influence of Gaussian noises than using conventional power spectral one. In this paper, the basic principle of the method is mentioned first, and its validity and features are considered from results of the fundamental experiments assumed ideal circumstances.

Keywords: 4-point detection, a stationary random acoustic source, auto- and cross-bispectra, estimation of 3D-position

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: R. S. Yadav, J. Havlica, I. Kuřitka, Z. Kozakova, J. Masilko, M. Hajdúchová, V. Enev, J. Wasserbauer

Abstract:

In this present work, CoFe2-xNdxO4 (0.0 ≤ x ≥0.1) spinel ferrite nanoparticles were synthesized by starch-assisted sol-gel auto-combustion method. Powder X-ray diffraction patterns were revealed the formation of cubic spinel ferrite with the signature of NdFeO3 phase at higher Nd3+ concentration. The field emission scanning electron microscopy study demonstrated the spherical nanoparticle in the size range between 5-15 nm. Raman and Fourier Transform Infrared spectra supported the formation of the spinel ferrite structure in the nanocrystalline form. The X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis confirmed the presence of Co2+ and Fe3+ at octahedral as well as a tetrahedral site in CoFe2-xNdxO4 nanoparticles. The change in magnetic properties with a variation of concentration of Nd3+ ions in cobalt ferrite nanoparticles was observed.

Keywords: nanoparticles, spinel ferrites, sol-gel auto-combustion method, CoFe2-xNdxO4

Procedia PDF Downloads 467

Authors: Weerakarj Dokchan

Abstract:

The purposes of this research are to find out the factors for developing trainers in the auto part manufacturing factories (AMF) in Amata Nakon Industrial Estate Cholburi. Population in this study included 148 operators to complete the questionnaires and 10 trainers to provide the information on the interview. The research statistics consisted of percentage, mean, standard deviation and step-wise multiple linear regression analysis.The analysis of the training model revealed that: The research result showed that the development factors of trainers in AMF consisted of 3 main factors and 8 sub-factors: 1) knowledge competency consisting of 4 sub-factors; arrangement of critical thinking, organizational loyalty, working experience of the trainers, analysis of behavior, and work and organization loyalty which could predict the success of the trainers at 55.60%. 2) Skill competency consisted of 4 sub-factors, arrangement of critical thinking, organizational loyalty and analysis of behavior and work and the development of emotional quotient. These 4 sub-factors could predict the success of the trainers in skill aspect 55.90%. 3) The attitude competency consisted of 4 sub-factors, arrangement of critical thinking, intention of trainee computer competency and teaching psychology. In conclusion, these 4 sub-factors could predict the success of the trainers in attitude aspect 58.50%.

Keywords: the development factors, trainers development, trainer competencies, auto part manufacturing factory (AMF), AmataNakon Industrial Estate Cholburi

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Óscar Muñoz Garrigós, José Manuel Bernabeu Aubán

Abstract:

Time-sensitive services are the base of the cloud services industry. Keeping low service saturation is essential for controlling response time. All auto-scalable services make use of reactive auto-scaling. However, reactive auto-scaling has few in-depth studies. This presentation shows a model for reactive auto-scaling methodologies with a MAPE-k architecture. Queuing theory can compute different properties of static services but lacks some parameters related to the transition between models. Our model uses queuing theory parameters to relate the transition between models. It associates MAPE-k related times, the sampling frequency, the cooldown period, the number of requests that an instance can handle per unit of time, the number of incoming requests at a time instant, and a function that describes the acceleration in the service's ability to handle more requests. This model is later used as a solution to horizontally auto-scale time-sensitive services composed of microservices, reevaluating the model’s parameters periodically to allocate resources. The solution requires limiting the acceleration of the growth in the number of incoming requests to keep a constrained response time. Business benefits determine such limits. The solution can add a dynamic number of instances and remains valid under different system sizes. The study includes performance recommendations to improve results according to the incoming load shape and business benefits. The exposed methodology is tested in a simulation. The simulator contains a load generator and a service composed of two microservices, where the frontend microservice depends on a backend microservice with a 1:1 request relation ratio. A common request takes 2.3 seconds to be computed by the service and is discarded if it takes more than 7 seconds. Both microservices contain a load balancer that assigns requests to the less loaded instance and preemptively discards requests if they are not finished in time to prevent resource saturation. When load decreases, instances with lower load are kept in the backlog where no more requests are assigned. If the load grows and an instance in the backlog is required, it returns to the running state, but if it finishes the computation of all requests and is no longer required, it is permanently deallocated. A few load patterns are required to represent the worst-case scenario for reactive systems: the following scenarios test response times, resource consumption and business costs. The first scenario is a burst-load scenario. All methodologies will discard requests if the rapidness of the burst is high enough. This scenario focuses on the number of discarded requests and the variance of the response time. The second scenario contains sudden load drops followed by bursts to observe how the methodology behaves when releasing resources that are lately required. The third scenario contains diverse growth accelerations in the number of incoming requests to observe how approaches that add a different number of instances can handle the load with less business cost. The exposed methodology is compared against a multiple threshold CPU methodology allocating/deallocating 10 or 20 instances, outperforming the competitor in all studied metrics.

Keywords: reactive auto-scaling, auto-scaling, microservices, cloud computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: D. Ravinder

Abstract:

Nickel ferrites and Ni doped Lithium nano ferrites [Li0.5Fe0.5]1-xNixFe2O4 with x= 0.8 and 1.0 synthesized by citrate-gel auto combustion method. The broad peaks in the X-ray diffraction pattern (XRD) indicate a crystalline behavior of the prepared samples. Low temperature magnetization studies i,e Field Cooled (FC) and Zero Field Cooled (ZFC) magnetic studies of the investigated samples are measured by using vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM). The magnetization of the prepared samples as a function of an applied magnetic field 10 T was measured at two different temperatures 5 K and 310 K. Field Cooled (FC) and Zero Field Cooled (ZFC) magnetization measurements under an applied field of 100 Oe and 1000 Oe in the temperature range of 5–375 K were carried out.

Keywords: ferro-spinels, field cooled (FC), Zero Field Cooled (ZFC) and blocking temperature, superpara magnetism, drug delivery applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

Abstract:

Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Jen-Fa Huang, Yu-Wei Chiu, Jhe-Ren Cheng

Abstract:

Visible light communication (VLC) technique has become useful method via LED light blinking. Several issues on indoor mobile robot positioning with LED blinking are examined in the paper. In the transmitter, we control the transceivers blinking message. Orthogonal Walsh codes are adopted for such purpose on auto-correlation function (ACF) to detect signal sequences. In the robot receiver, we set the frame of time by 1 ns passing signal from the transceiver to the mobile robot. After going through many periods of time detecting the peak value of ACF in the mobile robot. Moreover, the transceiver transmits signal again immediately. By capturing three times of peak value, we can know the time difference of arrival (TDOA) between two peak value intervals and finally analyze the accuracy of the robot position.

Keywords: Visible Light Communication, Auto-Correlation Function (ACF), peak value of ACF, Time difference of Arrival (TDOA)

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Rajeshkumar U. Sambhe

Abstract:

Large scale Indian manufacturers started implementing Six Sigma to their supply core to fulfill the endless need of high quality products. As well, they initiated encouraging their suppliers to apply the well-ascertain SS management practice and kept no resource for supplier enterprises, generally small midsized enterprises to think for the admittance of Six Sigma as a quality promotion drive. There are many issues to study for requisite changes before the introduction of Six Sigma in auto SMEs. This paper converges on impeding factors while implementing SS drive and also pinpoints the gains achieved through successful implementation. The result of this study suggest some operational guidelines for effective implementation of Six Sigma from evidences acquired through research questionnaire and interviews with industrial professionals, apportioned to assort auto sector mid-sized enterprises (MSEs) in India.

Keywords: indian automotive SMEs, quality management practices, six sigma imperatives, problems faced in six sigma implementation, benefits, some guidelines for implementation

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Junaid Mahmood Alam, Sana Anwar, Sarah Sughra Asghar

Abstract:

Chronic hepatitis or Hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection has been identified as one of the factors that could elicit autoimmune disease resulting in the development of auto-antibodies. Furthermore, HCV is implicated in contravening of forbearance to antigens, therefore, inciting auto-reactivity. In this regard, several near and past studies noted the prevalence of thyroid dysfunction and production of anti-thyroid antibodies (ATAb) such as anti-thyroid peroxidase (AntiTPO) and anti-thyroglobulin (AntiTG) in patients with HCV. Likewise, one of the etiologies of augmentation of thyroid disease is basically interferon therapy for HCV infections, for which a number of autoimmune diseases have been noted including Grave’s disease, Hishimoto thyroiditis. A prospectively case-control study was therefore carried out at department of clinical biochemistry lab services and chemical pathology in collaboration with department of clinical microbiology, at Liaquat National Hospital and Medical College, Karachi Pakistan for the period January 2015 to December 2017. Two control groups were inducted for comparison purpose, control group 1 = without HCV infection and with thyroid disorders (n = 20), control group 2 = with HCV infection and without thyroid disorders (n = 20), whereas HCV infected were n = 40 where more than half were noted to be positive for either of HCV IgG and Ag. In HCV group, patients with existing sub-clinical hypothyroidism and clinical hyperthyroidism were less than 5%. Analysis showed the presence of AntiTG in 12 HCV patients (30%), AntiTPO in 15 (37.5%) and both AntiTG and antiTPO in 10 patients (25%). Only 3 patients were found with the history of anti-thyroid auto-antibodies (7.5%) and one with parents and relatives with auto-immune disorders (2.5%). Patients that remained untreated were 12 (30%), under treatment 18 (45%) and with complete-course of treatment 10 (25%). As per review of the literature, meta-analysis of evident data and cross-sectional studies of selective cohorts (as studied in presented research), thyroid connection is designated as one of the most recurrent endocrine ailment associated with chronic HCV infection. Moreover, it also represents an extrahepatic disease in the continuum of HCV syndrome. In conclusion, HCV patients were more likely to encompass thyroid disorders especially related to development of either of ATAb or both antiTG and AntiTPO.

Keywords: Hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection, anti-thyroid antibodies, anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies, anti-thyroglobulin antibodies

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Balachandra Kumaraswamy, P. G. Poonacha

Abstract:

Automatic Music Information Retrieval has been one of the challenging topics of research for a few decades now with several interesting approaches reported in the literature. In this paper we have developed a pitch extraction method based on a finite Fourier series approximation to the given window of samples. We then estimate pitch as the fundamental period of the finite Fourier series approximation to the given window of samples. This method uses analysis of the strength of harmonics present in the signal to reduce octave as well as harmonic errors. The performance of our method is compared with three best known methods for pitch extraction, namely, Yin, Windowed Special Normalization of the Auto-Correlation Function and Harmonic Product Spectrum methods of pitch extraction. Our study with artificially created signals as well as music files show that Fourier Approximation method gives much better estimate of pitch with less octave and harmonic errors.

Keywords: pitch, fourier series, yin, normalization of the auto- correlation function, harmonic product, mean square error

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Muhammad Asghar, A. I. Bhatti, T. Izhar

Abstract:

The three-wheeled auto-rickshaw with a two or four-stroke Gasoline, Liquid Petrolium Gas (LPG) or Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) engine is a petite, highly maneuverable vehicle and best suited for the small and heavily-congested roads and is an affordable means of transportation in Pakistan cities. However due to in-efficient engine design, it is a main cause of air-pollution in the shape of white smoke (CO2) (greenhouse gases) at the tail pipe. Due to the environmental pollution, a huge number of battery powered vehicles have been imported from all over the world to fulfill the need of country. Effect of degree of hybridization on fuel economy and acceleration performance has been discussed in this paper. From mild to full hybridization stages have been examined. Optimal level of hybridization ranges depending on the total driving power of vehicle are suggested. The degree of hybridization is varied and fuel economy is seen accordingly by using Advisor (NREL) software. The novel vehicle drive-train is modeled and simulated in the Advisor software.

Keywords: advisor, hybridization, fuel economy, Three-Wheeled Rickshaw

Procedia PDF Downloads 544

Authors: Isaac Kayode Ogunlade

Abstract:

Data acquisition (DAQ) is the process by which physical phenomena from the real world are transformed into an electrical signal(s) that are measured and converted into a digital format for processing, analysis, and storage by a computer. The DAQ is designed using PIC18F4550 microcontroller, communicating with Personal Computer (PC) through USB (Universal Serial Bus). The research deployed initial knowledge of data acquisition system and embedded system to develop a weather data acquisition device using LM35 sensor to measure weather parameters and the use of Artificial Intelligence(Artificial Neural Network - ANN)and statistical approach(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average – ARIMA) to predict precipitation (rainfall). The device is placed by a standard device in the Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) to know the performance evaluation of the device. Both devices (standard and designed) were subjected to 180 days with the same atmospheric condition for data mining (temperature, relative humidity, and pressure). The acquired data is trained in MATLAB R2012b environment using ANN, and ARIMAto predict precipitation (rainfall). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correction Square (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) was deplored as standardize evaluation to know the performance of the models in the prediction of precipitation. The results from the working of the developed device show that the device has an efficiency of 96% and is also compatible with Personal Computer (PC) and laptops. The simulation result for acquired data shows that ANN models precipitation (rainfall) prediction for two months (May and June 2017) revealed a disparity error of 1.59%; while ARIMA is 2.63%, respectively. The device will be useful in research, practical laboratories, and industrial environments.

Keywords: data acquisition system, design device, weather development, predict precipitation and (FUTA) standard device

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif

Abstract:

This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.

Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: B. V. Feujofack Kemda, N. Barka, M. Jahazi, D. Osmani

Abstract:

Automobile manufacturers are constantly seeking means to reduce the weight of car bodies. The usage of several steel grades in auto body assembling has been found to be a good technique to enlighten vehicles weight. This few years, the usage of dual phase (DP) steels, transformation induced plasticity (TRIP) steels and boron steels in some parts of the auto body have become a necessity because of their lightweight. However, these steels are martensitic, when they undergo a fast heat treatment, the resultant microstructure is essential, made of martensite. Resistance spot welding (RSW), one of the most used techniques in assembling auto bodies, becomes problematic in the case of these steels. RSW being indeed a process were steel is heated and cooled in a very short period of time, the resulting weld nugget is mostly fully martensitic, especially in the case of DP, TRIP and boron steels but that also holds for plain carbon steels as AISI 1010 grade which is extensively used in auto body inner parts. Martensite in its turn must be avoided as most as possible when welding steel because it is the principal source of brittleness and it weakens weld nugget. Thus, this work aims to find a mean to reduce martensite fraction in weld nugget when using RSW for assembling. The prediction of phase transformation kinetics during RSW has been done. That phase transformation kinetics prediction has been made possible through the modelling of the whole welding process, and a technique called post weld heat treatment (PWHT) have been applied in order to reduce martensite fraction in the weld nugget. Simulation has been performed for AISI 1010 grade, and results show that the application of PWHT leads to the formation of not only martensite but also ferrite, bainite and pearlite during the cooling of weld nugget. Welding experiments have been done in parallel and micrographic analyses show the presence of several phases in the weld nugget. Experimental weld geometry and phase proportions are in good agreement with simulation results, showing here the validity of the model.

Keywords: resistance spot welding, AISI 1010, modeling, post weld heat treatment, phase transformation, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Aliyu Isah Agaie, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad, Nurfadhlina Mohd Sharef, Aida Mustapha

Abstract:

Natural Language Interfaces typically support a restricted language and also have scopes and limitations that naïve users are unaware of, resulting in errors when the users attempt to retrieve information from ontologies. To overcome this challenge, an auto-suggest feature is introduced into the querying process where users are guided through the querying process using interactive query construction system. Guiding users to formulate their queries, while providing them with an unconstrained (or almost unconstrained) way to query the ontology results in better interpretation of the query and ultimately lead to an effective search. The approach described in this paper is unobtrusive and subtly guides the users, so that they have a choice of either selecting from the suggestion list or typing in full. The user is not coerced into accepting system suggestions and can express himself using fragments or full sentences.

Keywords: auto-suggest, expressiveness, habitability, natural language interface, query interpretation, user guidance

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Norhidayu Muhamad Zain

Abstract:

Gelatin, a purified protein derived mostly from porcine and bovine sources, is used widely in food manufacturing, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic industries. However, the presence of any porcine-related products are strictly forbidden for Muslim and Jewish consumption. Therefore, analytical methods offering reliable results to differentiate the sources of gelatin are needed. The aim of this study was to differentiate the sources of gelatin (porcine and tilapia fish) using Fourier transform infrared- attenuated total reflection (FTIR-ATR) combined with two dimensional infrared (2DIR) correlation analysis. Porcine gelatin (PG) and tilapia fish gelatin (FG) samples were diluted in distilled water at concentrations ranged from 4-20% (w/v). The samples were then analysed using FTIR-ATR and 2DIR correlation software. The results showed a significant difference in the pattern map of synchronous spectra at the region of 1000 cm⁻¹ to 1100 cm⁻¹ between PG and FG samples. The auto peak at 1080 cm⁻¹ that attributed to C-O functional group was observed at high intensity in PG samples compared to FG samples. Meanwhile, two auto peaks (1080 cm⁻¹ and 1030 cm⁻¹) at lower intensity were identified in FG samples. In addition, using 2D correlation analysis, the original broad water OH bands in 1D IR spectra can be effectively differentiated into six auto peaks located at 3630, 3340, 3230, 3065, 2950 and 2885 cm⁻¹ for PG samples and five auto peaks at 3630, 3330, 3230, 3060 and 2940 cm⁻¹ for FG samples. Based on the rule proposed by Noda, the sequence of the spectral changes in PG samples is as following: NH₃⁺ amino acid > CH₂ and CH₃ aliphatic > OH stretch > carboxylic acid OH stretch > NH in secondary amide > NH in primary amide. In contrast, the sequence was totally in the opposite direction for FG samples and thus both samples provide different 2D correlation spectra ranged from 2800 cm-1 to 3700 cm⁻¹. This method may provide a rapid determination of gelatin source for application in food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic products.

Keywords: 2 dimensional infrared (2DIR) correlation analysis, Fourier transform infrared- attenuated total reflection (FTIR-ATR), porcine gelatin, tilapia fish gelatin

Procedia PDF Downloads 217