Search results for: analyst forecast dispersion

Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

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Authors: Merle Bischoff, Thomas Gries, Gunnar Seide

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Nanocomposites have become more and more important as the implementation of nanoparticles in polymer allows additional functions in common industrial parts. Especially in the fabrication of filaments or fibres nanomodification is important, as only very small fillers can be added to the very fine fibres (common diameter is 20 µm, fine filament are 1 µm). Discharging fibres, conductive fibres, and many other functional fibres raise in their importance nowadays. Especially the dispersion quality is essential for the final enhancement of the filament propertied. In this paper, the dispersion of carbon nanoparticles in polymer melt is enhanced by a newly developed sonication unit of ITA and BANDELIN electronic GmbH & Co. KG. The first development steps of the unit fabrication, as well as the first experimental results of the modification of the dispersion, are shown. Special focus will be laid on the sealing of the new sonication unit as well as the positioning and equipment size when being implemented in an existing melt spinning unit. Furthermore, the influence on the thereby manufactured nano-modified filaments will be shown.

Keywords: dispersion, sonication, carbon nanoparticles, filaments

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Authors: Fujian Wang, Shubin Ruan, Meiwei Dai

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Speed dispersion has tight relation to traffic safety. In this paper, several kinds of indicating parameters (the standard speed deviation, the coefficient of variation, the deviation of V85 and V15, the mean speed deviations, and the difference between adjacent car speeds) are applied to investigate the characteristics of speed dispersion, where V85 and V15 are 85th and 15th percentile speed, respectively. Their relationships are into full investigations and the results show that: there exists a positive relation (linear) between mean speed and the deviation of V85 and V15; while a negative relation (quadratic) between traffic flow and standard speed deviation. The mean speed deviation grows exponentially with mean speed while the absolute speed deviation between adjacent cars grows linearly with the headway. The results provide some basic information for traffic management.

Keywords: headway, indicating parameters, speed dispersion, urban expressway

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Authors: Moses Emetere, Marvel Akinyemi, S. E. Sanni

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At the moment, AERONET or AMMA database shows a large volume of data loss. With only about 47% data set available to the scientist, it is evident that accurate nowcast or forecast cannot be guaranteed. The calibration constants of most radiosonde or weather stations are not compatible with the atmospheric conditions of the West African climate. A dispersion model was developed to incorporate salient mathematical representations like a Unified number. The Unified number was derived to describe the turbulence of the aerosols transport in the frictional layer of the lower atmosphere. Fourteen years data set from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was tested using the dispersion model. A yearly estimation of the atmospheric constants over Ouagadougou using the model was obtained with about 87.5% accuracy. It further revealed that the average atmospheric constant for Ouagadougou-Niger is a_1 = 0.626, a_2 = 0.7999 and the tuning constants is n_1 = 0.09835 and n_2 = 0.266. Also, the yearly atmospheric constants affirmed the lower atmosphere of Ouagadougou is very dynamic. Hence, it is recommended that radiosonde and weather station manufacturers should constantly review the atmospheric constant over a geographical location to enable about eighty percent data retrieval.

Keywords: aerosols retention, aerosols loading, statistics, analytical technique

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Authors: Bhupeshwaran Mani, S. Radha, A. Jawahar, A. Sivasubramanian

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Here, we study the characteristic feature of conventional (ON-OFF keying) and soliton based transmission system. We consider 20 Gbps transmission system implemented with Conventional Single Mode Fiber (C-SMF) to examine the role of Gaussian pulse which is the characteristic of conventional propagation and hyperbolic-secant pulse which is the characteristic of soliton propagation in it. We note the influence of these pulses with respect to different dispersion lengths and soliton period in conventional and soliton system, respectively, and evaluate the system performance in terms of quality factor. From the analysis, we could prove that the soliton pulse has more consistent performance even for long distance without dispersion compensation than the conventional system as it is robust to dispersion. For the length of transmission of 200 Km, soliton system yielded Q of 33.958 while the conventional system totally exhausted with Q=0.

Keywords: dispersion length, retrun-to-zero (rz), soliton, soliton period, q-factor

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Authors: Suad M. Abuzariba, Liang Chen, Saeed Hadjifaradji

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To evaluate the optical eye diagram due to polarization-mode dispersion (PMD), polarization-dependent loss (PDL), and chromatic dispersion (CD) for a system of highly mode coupled fiber with lumped section at any given optical pulse sequence we present an analytical modle. We found that with considering PDL and the polarization direction correlation between PMD and PDL, a system with highly mode coupled fiber with lumped section can have either higher or lower Q-factor than a highly mode coupled system with same root mean square PDL/PMD values. Also we noticed that a system of two highly mode coupled fibers connected together is not equivalent to a system of highly mode coupled fiber when fluctuation is considered

Keywords: polarization mode dispersion, polarization dependent loss, chromatic dispersion, optical eye diagram

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Authors: Sonia Ben Hamza, Sabra Habli, Nejla Mahjoub Saïd, Hervé Bournot, Georges Le Palec

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This paper spots light on the effect of a point source pollution on streams, stemming out from intentional release caused by unconscious facts. The consequences of such contamination on ecosystems are very serious. Accordingly, effective tools are highly demanded in this respect, which enable us to come across an accurate progress of pollutant and anticipate different measures to be applied in order to limit the degradation of the environmental surrounding. In this context, we are eager to model a pollutant dispersion of a free surface flow which is ejected by an outfall sewer of an urban sewerage network in coastal water taking into account the influence of climatic parameters on the spread of pollutant. Numerical results showed that pollutant dispersion is merely due to the presence of vortices and turbulence. Hence, it was realized that the pollutant spread in seawater is strongly correlated with climatic conditions in this region.

Keywords: coastal waters, numerical simulation, pollutant dispersion, turbulent flows

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Authors: Kadam Bhambri, Neena Gupta

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All optical wavelength conversion is essential in present day optical networks for transparent interoperability, contention resolution, and wavelength routing. The incorporation of all optical wavelength convertors leads to better utilization of the network resources and hence improves the efficiency of optical networks. Wavelength convertors that can work with Dispersion Managed (DM) solitons are attractive due to their superior transmission capabilities. In this paper, wavelength conversion for dispersion managed soliton signals was demonstrated at 100 Gbps through semiconductor optical amplifier and an optical filter. The wavelength conversion was achieved for a 1550 nm input signal to1555nm output signal. The output signal was measured in terms of BER, Q factor and system margin.    

Keywords: all optical wavelength conversion, dispersion managed solitons, semiconductor optical amplifier, cross gain modultation

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Authors: Giorgio Visentin, Inna S. Kalinina, Alexei A. Buchachenko

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In the ambit of intermolecular interactions, a combination rule is defined as a relation linking a potential parameter for the interaction of two unlike species with the same parameters for interaction pairs of like species. Some of their most exemplificative applications cover the construction of molecular dynamics force fields and dispersion-corrected density functionals. Here, an extended combination rule is proposed, relating the dipole-dipole dispersion coefficients for the interaction of like target species to the same coefficients for the interaction of the target and a set of partner species. The rule can be devised in two different ways, either by uniform discretization of the Casimir-Polder integral on a Gauss-Legendre quadrature or by relating the dynamic polarizabilities of the target and the partner species. Both methods return the same system of linear equations, which requires the knowledge of the dispersion coefficients for interaction between the partner species to be solved. The test examples show a high accuracy for dispersion coefficients (better than 1% in the pristine test for the interaction of Yb atom with rare gases and alkaline-earth metal atoms). In contrast, the rule does not ensure correct monotonic behavior of the dynamic polarizability of the target species. Acknowledgment: The work is supported by Russian Science Foundation grant # 17-13-01466.

Keywords: combination rule, dipole-dipole dispersion coefficient, Casimir-Polder integral, Gauss-Legendre quadrature

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Authors: Min Wei

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The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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Authors: Reyhaneh Hashemi, Shahrooz Saviz

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In his study, we have survey the theory of gyrotron amplifier in a vane-loaded waveguide with inner dielectric material. Dispersion relation for electromagnetic waves emitted by a cylindrical waveguide that provided with wedge-shaped metal vanes projecting radially inward from the wall of the guide and exited in the transverse-electric mode was analysed. From numerical analysis of this dispersion relation, it is shown that the stability behavior of the fast-wave mode is dependent of the dielectric constant. With a small axial momentum spreed, a super bandwidth is shown to be attainable by a mixed mode operation. Also, with the utilization from the numeric analysis of relation dispersion. We show that in the –speed mode, the constant is independent de-electric. With the ratio of dispersion of smell, high –bandwith was obtained for the combined mode. And at the end, we were comparing the result of our work (vane-loaded) by the waveguide with a smooth wall.

Keywords: gyrotron amplifier, waveguide, vane-loaded waveguide, dielectric material, dispersion relation, cylindrical waveguide, fast-wave mode, mixed mode operation

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Shinsuke Kato, Jianing Zhao

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Particles exhausted from cars have an adverse impacts on human health. The study developed a three-dimensional particle dispersion numerical model including particle coagulation to simulate the particle concentration distribution under idling conditions in a residential underground garage. The simulation results demonstrate that particle disperses much faster in the vertical direction than that in horizontal direction. The enhancement of particle dispersion in the vertical direction due to the increase of cars with engine running is much stronger than that in the car exhaust direction. Particle dispersion from each pair of adjacent cars has little influence on each other in the study. Average particle concentration after 120 seconds exhaust is 1.8-4.5 times higher than the initial total particles at ambient environment. Particle pollution in the residential underground garage is severe.

Keywords: dispersion, idling conditions, particle concentration, residential underground garage

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Authors: Adinarayana Gorajana, Venkata Srikanth Meka, Sanjay Garg, Lim Sue May

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This study was designed to evaluate and enhance the solubility of poorly soluble drug, docetaxel through solid dispersion (SD) technique prepared using freeze drying method. Docetaxel solid dispersions were formulated with Soluplus in different weight ratios. Freeze drying method was used to prepare the solid dispersions. Solubility of the solid dispersions were evaluated respectively and the optimized of drug-solubilizers ratio systems were characterized with different analytical methods like Differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) to confirm the formation of complexes between drug and solubilizers. The solubility data revealed an overall improvement in solubility for all SD formulations. The ternary combination 1:5:2 gave the highest increase in solubility that is approximately 3 folds from the pure drug, suggesting the optimum drug-solubilizers ratio system. This data corresponds with the DSC and SEM analyses, which demonstrates presence of drug in amorphous state and the dispersion in the solubilizers in molecular level. The solubility of the poorly soluble drug, docetaxel was enhanced through preparation of solid dispersion formulations employing freeze drying method. Solid dispersion with multiple carrier system shows better solubility compared to single carrier system.

Keywords: docetaxel, freeze drying, soluplus, solid dispersion technique

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Authors: Fatemeh Rouhi, Hadi Nassiri

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Earning forecast is a key element in economic decisions but there are some situations, such as conflicts of interest in financial reporting, complexity and lack of direct access to information has led to the phenomenon of information asymmetry among individuals within the organization and external investors and creditors that appear. The adverse selection and moral hazard in the investor's decision and allows direct assessment of the difficulties associated with data by users makes. In this regard, the role of trustees in corporate governance disclosure is crystallized that includes controls and procedures to ensure the lack of movement in the interests of the company's management and move in the direction of maximizing shareholder and company value. Therefore, the earning forecast of companies in the capital market and the need to identify factors influencing this study was an attempt to make relationship between moral hazard and corporate governance with earning forecast quality companies operating in the capital market and its impact on Earnings Forecasts quality by the company to be established. Getting inspiring from the theoretical basis of research, two main hypotheses and sub-hypotheses are presented in this study, which have been examined on the basis of available models, and with the use of Panel-Data method, and at the end, the conclusion has been made at the assurance level of 95% according to the meaningfulness of the model and each independent variable. In examining the models, firstly, Chow Test was used to specify either Panel Data method should be used or Pooled method. Following that Housman Test was applied to make use of Random Effects or Fixed Effects. Findings of the study show because most of the variables are positively associated with moral hazard with earnings forecasts quality, with increasing moral hazard, earning forecast quality companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is increasing. Among the variables related to corporate governance, board independence variables have a significant relationship with earnings forecast accuracy and earnings forecast bias but the relationship between board size and earnings forecast quality is not statistically significant.

Keywords: corporate governance, earning forecast quality, moral hazard, financial sciences

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Authors: Yeliz Ekinci, Melis Koyuncu

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Successful planning of solid waste management systems requires successful prediction of the amount of solid waste generated in an area. Waste management planning can protect the environment and human health, hence it is tremendously important for countries. The lack of information in waste generation can cause many environmental and health problems. Turkey is a country that plans to join European Union, hence, solid waste management is one of the most significant criteria that should be handled in order to be a part of this community. Solid waste management system requires a good forecast of solid waste generation. Thus, this study aims to forecast solid waste generation in Turkey. Artificial Neural Network and Linear Regression models will be used for this aim. Many models will be run and the best one will be selected based on some predetermined performance measures.

Keywords: forecast, solid waste generation, solid waste management, Turkey

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Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

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Authors: May Khei Hu, Kevin Leong, Fu Siong Ng, Nicholas Peter

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Introduction: Sympathetic stimulation has been recognised as a potent stimulus of arrhythmogenesis in various cardiac pathologies, possibly by augmenting dispersion of repolarisation. The effects of sympathetic stimulation in healthy subjects however remain unclear. It is, therefore, crucial to first establish the effects of physiological stress on dispersion of repolarisation in healthy subjects before understanding these effects in pathological cardiac conditions. We hypothesised that activation-recovery interval (ARI; which is a surrogate of action potential duration) and dispersion of repolarisation decrease on sympathetic stimulation. Methods: Eight patients aged 18-55 years with structurally normal hearts underwent head-up tilt test (HUTT) and exercise tolerance test (ETT) while wearing the electrocardiographic imaging (ECGi) vest. Patients later underwent CT scan and the epicardial potentials are reconstructed using the ECGi software. Activation and recovery times were determined from the acquired electrograms. ARI was calculated and later corrected using Bazett’s formula. Global and regional dispersion of repolarisation were determined from standard deviation of the corrected ARI (ARIc). One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Wilcoxon test were used to evaluate statistical significance. Results: Global ARIc increased significantly [p<0.01] when patients were tilted upwards but decreased significantly after five minutes [p<0.01]. A subsequent post- hoc analysis revealed that the decrease in R-R was more substantial compared to the change in ARI, resulting in the observed increase in ARIc. Global ARIc decreased on peak exercise [p<0.01] but increased on recovery [p<0.01]. Global dispersion increased significantly on peak exercise [p<0.05] although there were no significant changes in regional dispersion. There were no significant changes in both global and regional dispersion during tilt. Conclusion: ARIc decreases upon sympathetic stimulation in healthy subjects. Global dispersion of repolarisation increases upon exercise although there were no changes in global or regional dispersion during orthostatic stress.

Keywords: dispersion of repolarisation, sympathetic stimulation, Head-up tilt test (HUTT), Exercise tolerance test (ETT), Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGi)

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Authors: Prachi Desai, Ankita Gandhi, Mitali Acharya

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Rainfall forecast is mainly used for predictions of rainfall in a specified area and determining their future rainfall conditions. Rainfall is always a global issue as it affects all major aspects of one's life. Agricultural, fisheries, forestry, tourism industry and other industries are widely affected by these conditions. The studies have resulted in insufficient availability of water resources and an increase in water demand in the near future. We already have a new forecast system that uses the deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to forecast monthly rainfall and climate changes. We have also compared CNN against Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Machine Learning techniques that are used in rainfall predictions include ARIMA Model, ANN, LR, SVM etc. The dataset on which we are experimenting is gathered online over the year 1901 to 20118. Test results have suggested more realistic improvements than conventional rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: ANN, CNN, supervised learning, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Nebila Lichiheb, LaToya Myles, William Pendergrass, Bruce Hicks, Dawson Cagle

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Atmospheric transport of hazardous materials in urban areas is increasingly under investigation due to the potential impact on human health and the environment. In response to health and safety concerns, several dispersion models have been developed to analyze and predict the dispersion of hazardous contaminants. The models of interest usually rely on meteorological information obtained from the meteorological models of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS). However, due to the complexity of the urban environment, NWS forecasts provide an inadequate basis for dispersion computation in urban areas. A dense meteorological network in Washington, DC, called DCNet, has been operated by NOAA since 2003 to support the development of urban monitoring methodologies and provide the driving meteorological observations for atmospheric transport and dispersion models. This study focuses on the comparison of wind observations from the DCNet station on the U.S. Department of Commerce Herbert C. Hoover Building against the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model outputs for the period 2017-2019. The goal is to develop a simple methodology for modifying NAM outputs so that the dispersion requirements of the city and its urban area can be satisfied. This methodology will allow us to quantify the prediction errors of the NAM model and propose adjustments of key variables controlling dispersion model calculation.

Keywords: meteorological data, Washington D.C., DCNet data, NAM model

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Authors: Ahmad Awajan, Sadam Al Wadi

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In this study, a hybrid method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Holt-Winter (EMD-HW) is used to forecast Amman stock market data. First, the data are decomposed by EMD method into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and residual components. Then, all components are forecasted by HW technique. Finally, forecasting values are aggregated together to get the forecasting value of stock market data. Empirical results showed that the EMD- HW outperform individual forecasting models. The strength of this EMD-HW lies in its ability to forecast non-stationary and non- linear time series without a need to use any transformation method. Moreover, EMD-HW has a relatively high accuracy comparing with eight existing forecasting methods based on the five forecast error measures.

Keywords: Holt-Winter method, empirical mode decomposition, forecasting, time series

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Authors: K. Ebrahimi, Sh. Shahid, M. Mohammadi Ghaleni, M. H. Omid

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The longitudinal dispersion coefficient is a crucial parameter for 1-D water quality analysis of riverine flows. So far, different types of empirical equations for estimation of the coefficient have been developed, based on various case studies. The main objective of this paper is to develop an empirical equation for estimation of the coefficient for a riverine flow. For this purpose, a set of tracer experiments was conducted, involving salt tracer, at three sections located in downstream of a lengthy canal. Tracer data were measured in three mixing lengths along the canal including; 45, 75 and 100m. According to the results, the obtained coefficients from new developed empirical equation gave an encouraging level of agreement with the theoretical values.

Keywords: coefficients, dispersion, river, tracer, water quality

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Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

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Authors: Pranitha Janapatla, Venkata Suman Gontla

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The present paper investigates the effects of MHD, double dispersion and variable properties on mixed convection flow from a vertical surface in a power-law fluid saturated non-Darcy porous medium. The governing non-linear partial differential equations are reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations by using a special form of Lie group transformations viz. scaling group of transformations. These ordinary differential equations are solved numerically by using Shooting technique. The influence of relevant parameters on the non-dimensional velocity, temperature, concentration for pseudo-plastic fluid, Newtonian and dilatant fluid are discussed and displayed graphically. The behavior of heat and mass transfer coefficients are shown in tabular form. Comparisons with the published works are performed and are found to be in very good agreement. From this analysis, it is observed that an increase in variable viscosity causes to decrease in velocity profile and increase the temperature and concentration distributions. It is also concluded that increase in the solutal dispersion decreases the velocity and concentration but raises the temperature profile.

Keywords: power-law fluid, thermal conductivity, thermal dispersion, solutal dispersion, variable viscosity

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Authors: Shaoying Guo, Yanyun Xu, Meng Zhang, Weiqing Huang

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The wireless communication network is developing rapidly, thus the wireless security becomes more and more important. Specific emitter identification (SEI) is an vital part of wireless communication security as a technique to identify the unique transmitters. In this paper, a SEI method based on multiscale dispersion entropy (MDE) and refined composite multiscale dispersion entropy (RCMDE) is proposed. The algorithms of MDE and RCMDE are used to extract features for identification of five wireless devices and cross-validation support vector machine (CV-SVM) is used as the classifier. The experimental results show that the total identification accuracy is 99.3%, even at low signal-to-noise ratio(SNR) of 5dB, which proves that MDE and RCMDE can describe the communication signal series well. In addition, compared with other methods, the proposed method is effective and provides better accuracy and stability for SEI.

Keywords: cross-validation support vector machine, refined com- posite multiscale dispersion entropy, specific emitter identification, transient signal, wireless communication device

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Authors: Meshari Al-Harbi

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A comparative area-season-elemental-wise time series analysis by Dust Track monitor (2012-2013) revealed high PM10 dispersion in the outdoor environment in the sequence of industrial> express highways>residential>open areas. Time series analysis from 7AM-6AM (until next day), 30d (monthly), 3600sec. (for any given period of a month), and 12 months (yearly) showed peak PM10 dispersion during 1AM-7AM, 1d-4d and 25d-31d of every month, 1500-3600 with the exception in PM10 dispersion in residential areas, and in the months-March to June, respectively. This time-bound PM10 dispersion suggests the primary influence of human activities (peak mobility and productivity period for a given time frame) besides the secondary influence of meteorological parameters (high temperature and wind action) and, occasional dust storms. Whereas, gravimetric analysis reveals the influence of precipitation, low temperature and low volatility resulting high trace metals in PM10 during winter than in summer and primarily attributes to the influence of nature besides, the secondary attributes of smoke stack emission from various industries and automobiles. Furthermore, our study recommends residents to limit outdoor air pollution exposures and take precautionary measures to inhale PM10 pollutants from the atmosphere.

Keywords: aerosol, pollution, respirable particulates, trace-metals

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Authors: A. Mousavi, S. Sadegzadeh

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In this research, the effect of non-thermal micro plasma with non-Maxwellian distribution function on the one dimensional plasma photonic crystals containing alternate plasma-dielectric layers, has been studied. By using Kronig Penny model, the dispersion relation of electromagnetic modes for such a periodic structure is obtained. In this study we take two plasma photonic crystals with different dielectric layers: the first one with Silicon monoxide named PPCI, and the second one with Tellurium dioxide named PPCII. The effects of the plasma layer thickness and the material of the dielectric layer on the plasma photonic crystal band gaps have been illustrated in the dispersion relation and the group velocity figures. Results revealed that in such a system, the non-thermal plasma exerts stronger limit on the wave’s propagation. In another word, for the non-thermal plasma photonic crystals (NPPC), there are two distinct regions in the dispersion plot. The upper region consists of alternate band gaps in such a way that both width and length of the bands decrease gradually as the band gaps order increases. Whereas in the lower region where v_ph > 20 c (for PPCI), waves will not be allowed to propagate.

Keywords: band gap, dispersion relation, non-thermal plasma, plasma photonic crystal

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Sushant Singh, Anurag Jain, Seema Sabharwal

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Cloud computing is advancing with a rapid speed. Already, it has been adopted by a huge set of users. Easy to use and anywhere access like potential of cloud computing has made it more attractive relative to other technologies. This has resulted in reduction of deployment cost on user side. It has also allowed the big companies to sell their infrastructure to recover the installation cost for the organization. Roots of cloud computing have extended from Grid computing. Along with the inherited characteristics of its predecessor technologies it has also adopted the loopholes present in those technologies. Some of the loopholes are identified and corrected recently, but still some are yet to be rectified. Two major areas where still scope of improvement exists are security and performance. The proposed work is devoted to performance enhancement for the user of the existing cloud system by improving the basic throttled mapping approach between task and resources. The improved procedure has been tested using the cloud analyst simulator. The results are compared with the original and it has been found that proposed work is one step ahead of existing techniques.

Keywords: cloud analyst, cloud computing, load balancing, throttled

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Authors: Tamer M. Shehata, Heba S. Elsewedy, Mashel Al Dosary, Alaa Elshehry, Mohamed A. Khedr, Maged E. Mohamed

Abstract:

Objective: 2,4-Dichlorophenoxy acetic acid (2,4-D) is a well-known herbicide widely used as a weed killer. Recently, 2,4-D was rediscovered as a new anti-inflammatory agent through in silico as well as in-vivo experiments. However, poor solubility of 2,4-D could represent a problems during pharmaceutical development in addition to lower bioavailability. Solid dispersion (SD) refers to a group of solid products consisting of at least two different components, usually a hydrophobic drug and hydrophilic matrix. It is well known technique for enhancing drug solubility. Therefore, selecting SD as a tool for enhancing 2,4-D could be of great interest to the formulator. Method: In our project, several polymers were investigated (such as PEG, HPMC, citric acid and others) in addition to drug polymer ratios and its effect on solubility. Evaluation of drug polymer interaction was investigated through both Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Finally, in-vivo evaluation was performed for the best selected preparation through inflammatory response of rat induce hind paw. Results: Results indicated that, citric acid 2,4-D and in ratio of 0.75 : 1 showed modified the dissolution profile of the drug. The FTIR resltes indicated no significant chemical interaction, however DSC showed shifting of the drug melting point. Finally, Carragenan induced rat hind paw edema showed significant reduction of the drug solid dispersion in comparison to the pure drug, indicating rapid and complete absorption of the drug in solid dispersion form. Conclusion: Solid dispersion technology can be utilized efficiently to enhance the solubility of 2,4-D.

Keywords: solid dispersion, 2, 4-D solubility, carragenan induced edema

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Moustafa Osman

Abstract:

Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 334