Search results for: air pollution prediction (forecasting)

Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Abdullah Al-Mamun, Md. Nuruzzaman, Md. Noor Salleh, Muhammad Abu Eusuf, Ahmad Jalal Khan Chowdhury, Mohd. Zaki M. Amin, Norlida Mohd. Dom

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Identification of pollution sources and determination of pollution loads from all areas are very important for sustainable rehabilitation of any contaminated river. Pusu is a small river which, flows through the main campus of International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) at Gombak. Poor aesthetics of the river, which is flowing through the entrance of the campus, gives negative impression to the local and international visitors. As such, this study is being conducted to find ways to rehabilitate the river in a sustainable manner. The point and non-point pollution sources of the river basin are identified. Upper part of the 12.6 km2 river basin is covered with secondary forest. However, it is the lower-middle reaches of the river basin which is being cleared for residential development and source of high sediment load. Flow and concentrations of the common pollutants, important for a healthy river, such as Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Suspended Solids (SS), Turbidity, pH, Ammoniacal Nitrogen (AN), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) are determined. Annual pollution loading to the river was calculated based on the primary and secondary data. Concentrations of SS were high during the rainy day due to contribution from the non-point sources. There are 7 ponds along the river system within the campus, which are severely affected by high sediment load from the land clearing activities. On the other hand, concentrations of other pollutants were high during the non-rainy days. The main sources of point pollution are the hostels, cafeterias, sewage treatment plants located in the campus. Therefore, both pollution sources need to be controlled in order to rehabilitate the river in a sustainable manner.

Keywords: river pollution, rehabilitation, point pollution source, non-point pollution sources, pollution loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Hakim Aguedal, Abdelkader Iddou, Abdalla Aziz, Abdelhadi Bentouami, Ferhat Bensalah, Salah Bensadek

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The major environmental risk of soil pollution is the contamination of groundwater by infiltration of organic and inorganic pollutants that can cause a serious pollution. To prevent the migration of this pollution through this structure, many studies propose the installation of layers, which play a role of a barrier that inhibiting the contamination of groundwater by limiting or slowing the flow of rainwater carrying pollution through the layers of soil. However, it is practically impossible to build a barrier layer that let through only water, but it is possible to design a structure with low permeability, which reduces the infiltration of dangerous pollutant. In an environmental context of groundwater protection, the main objective of this study was to investigate the environmental and appropriate suitability method to preserve groundwater, by establishment of a permeable reactive barrier (PRB) intermediate in soil. Followed the influence of several parameters allow us to find the most effective materials and the most appropriate way to incorporate this barrier in the soil.

Keywords: Ground water, protection, permeable reactive Barrier, soil pollution.

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: G. A. Gevorgyan, K. A. Ghazaryan, T. H. Derdzyan

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The heavy metal pollution of the soils around the mining area near Shamlugh town and related risks to human health were assessed. The investigations showed that the soils were polluted with heavy metals that can be ranked by anthropogenic pollution degree as follows: Cu>Pb>As>Co>Ni>Zn. The main sources of the anthropogenic metal pollution of the soils were the copper mining area near Shamlugh town, the Chochkan tailings storage facility and the trucks transferring are from the mining area. Copper pollution degree in some observation sites was unallowable for agricultural production. The total non-carcinogenic chronic hazard index (THI) values in some places, including observation sites in Shamlugh town, were above the safe level (THI<1) for children living in this territory. Although the highest heavy metal enrichment degree in the soils was registered in case of copper, the highest health risks to humans especially children were posed by cobalt which is explained by the fact that heavy metals have different toxicity levels and penetration characteristics.

Keywords: Armenia, copper mine, heavy metal pollution of soil, health risks

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Authors: Sudha T., Naveen C.

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Dengue is a serious public health issue that causes significant annual economic and welfare burdens on nations. However, enhanced optimization techniques and quantitative modeling approaches can predict the incidence of dengue. By advocating for a data-driven approach, public health officials can make informed decisions, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sudden disease outbreak control efforts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are two of the U.S. Federal Government agencies from which this study uses environmental data. Based on environmental data that describe changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and other factors known to affect dengue incidence, many predictive models are constructed that use different machine learning methods to estimate weekly dengue cases. The first step involves preparing the data, which includes handling outliers and missing values to make sure the data is prepared for subsequent processing and the creation of an accurate forecasting model. In the second phase, multiple feature selection procedures are applied using various machine learning models and optimization techniques. During the third phase of the research, machine learning models like the Huber Regressor, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) are compared with several optimization techniques for feature selection, such as Harmony Search and Genetic Algorithm. In the fourth stage, the model's performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as assistance. Selecting an optimization strategy with the least number of errors, lowest price, biggest productivity, or maximum potential results is the goal. In a variety of industries, including engineering, science, management, mathematics, finance, and medicine, optimization is widely employed. An effective optimization method based on harmony search and an integrated genetic algorithm is introduced for input feature selection, and it shows an important improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The predictive models with Huber Regressor as the foundation perform the best for optimization and also prediction.

Keywords: deep learning model, dengue fever, prediction, optimization

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Authors: Ainas Belkacem, Fourar Ali

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The present study focuses on the mathematical modeling and calculation of physical parameters of water pollution by oil and sand in regime fully dispersed in water. In this study, the sand particles and oil are suspended in the case of fully developed turbulence. The study consists to understand, model and predict the viscosity, the structure and dynamics of these types of mixtures. The work carried out is Numerical and validated by experience.

Keywords: multi phase flow, pollution, suspensions, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Dimitrios Triantakonstantis, Demetris Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modeling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modeling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, CORINE, urban atlas, urban growth prediction

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Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

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Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

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Authors: P. S. Jagadeesh Kumar, S. Meenakshi Sundaram, Wenli Hu, Yang Yung

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In 3D video games, the dominance of production is unceasingly growing with a protruding level of affordability in terms of budget. Afterward, the automation of speech-lip synchronization technique is customarily onerous and has advanced a critical research subject in virtual reality based 3D video games. This paper presents one of these automatic tools, precisely riveted on the synchronization of the speech and the lip movement of the game characters. A robust and precise speech recognition segment that systematized with Algebraic Code Excited Linear Prediction method is developed which unconventionally delivers lip sync results. The Algebraic Code Excited Linear Prediction algorithm is constructed on that used in code-excited linear prediction, but Algebraic Code Excited Linear Prediction codebooks have an explicit algebraic structure levied upon them. This affords a quicker substitute to the software enactments of lip sync algorithms and thus advances the superiority of service factors abridged production cost.

Keywords: algebraic code excited linear prediction, speech-lip synchronization, video games, virtual reality

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Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

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Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. The earlier we predict the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven data sets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: software metrics, fault prediction, cross project, within project.

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Authors: Tabugbo B. Ifeyinwa, Josephat O. Ogbuagu, Okeke A. Princewill, Victor C. Eze

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The increasing amount of plastic pollution in maritime settings poses a substantial risk to the functioning of ecosystems and the preservation of biodiversity. This comprehensive analysis combines the most recent data on the environmental effects of pollution from macroplastics, microplastics, and nanoplastics within marine ecosystems. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the cumulative impacts that plastic waste accumulates on marine life by outlining the origins, processes, and ecological repercussions connected with each size category of plastic debris. Microplastics and nanoplastics have more sneaky effects that are controlled by chemicals. These effects can get through biological barriers and affect the health of cells and the whole body. Compared to macroplastics, which primarily contribute to physical harm through entanglement and ingestion by marine fauna, microplastics, and nanoplastics are associated with non-physical effects. The review underlines a vital need for research that crosses disciplinary boundaries to untangle the intricate interactions that the various sizes of plastic pollution have with marine animals, evaluate the long-term ecological repercussions, and identify effective measures for mitigating the effects of plastic pollution. Additionally, we urge governmental interventions and worldwide cooperation to solve this pervasive environmental concern. Specifically, we identify significant knowledge gaps in the detection and effect assessment of nanoplastics. To protect marine biodiversity and preserve ecosystem services, this review highlights how urgent it is to address the broad spectrum of plastic pollution.

Keywords: macroplastic pollution, marine ecosystem, microplastic pollution, nanoplastic pollution

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Haozhe Xiang

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With the rise of the Internet of Things era, intelligent products are gradually integrating into people's lives. Pedestrian trajectory prediction has become a key issue, which is crucial for the motion path planning of intelligent agents such as autonomous vehicles, robots, and drones. In the current technological context, deep learning technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated and gradually replacing traditional models. The pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm combining neural networks and attention mechanisms has significantly improved prediction accuracy. Based on in-depth research on deep learning and pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithms, this article focuses on physical environment modeling and learning of historical trajectory time dependence. At the same time, social interaction between pedestrians and scene interaction between pedestrians and the environment were handled. An improved pedestrian trajectory prediction algorithm is proposed by analyzing the existing model architecture. With the help of these improvements, acceptable predicted trajectories were successfully obtained. Experiments on public datasets have demonstrated the algorithm's effectiveness and achieved acceptable results.

Keywords: deep learning, graph convolutional network, attention mechanism, LSTM

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

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Authors: Yong-Il Lee, Do-Yeon Hwang, Won-Seog Jeong, Duckshin Park

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Recently, because of the high-speed trains forced ventilation, it is important to control the ventilation. The ventilation is for controlling various contaminants, temperature, and humidity. The high-speed train route is straight to a destination having a high speed. And there are many mountainous areas in Korea. So, tunnel rate is higher then other country. KTX HVAC block off the outdoor air, when entering tunnel. So the high tunnel rate is an effect of ventilation in the KTX cabin. It is important to reduction rate in CO2 concentration prediction. To meet the air quality of the public transport vehicles recommend standards, the KTX cabin of CO2 concentration should be managed. In this study, the concentration change was predicted by CO2 prediction simulation in route to be opened.

Keywords: CO2 prediction, KTX, ventilation, infrastructure and transportation engineering

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Authors: M. Sirajul Islam Molla

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Noise pollution has been a continuous and an increasing threat to human health in urban population all over the world. The situation in Bangladesh particularly in major cities has been dangerously aggravating. Despite the government of Bangladesh have laws in its hand to curb the noise pollution the authority’s reluctance in enforcing it, is making the situation worse. We do not see any difference in some other major cities of the South Asian Regional Countries like Delhi and Kathmandu, both of the cities are facing the same situation like Dhaka. With the expansion of technology-based township all over the world, the noise pollution has been an emerging threat to urban health. The information for this review has been derived from websites of GOs, NGOs, peer-reviewed papers, seminars and symposia. The worse situation of noise pollution results in people’s irritation and protest, but in many cases, the protesters are facing the wrath of the polluters. Two such consequences in Bangladesh have resulted in killing the protesters by the polluters – one happened in Dhaka city and the other in a rural town. The law-enforcing agencies proactively do not attempt to impose the law. Noise pollution has been increasing so rapidly that it has become a burden on human health in urban populations. Prolonged exposure to higher noise causes mental stress, sleeplessness, high blood pressure, cardiac failure, respiratory disorder, miscarriage and breaks attention of students to their studies and also irritates their behavior. The noise pollution-caused mortality has also been increasing all over the world. Recommendations from the international conferences such as ICUH should be forwarded to the United Nations. The UN then should pass it on to the concerned countries. The UN should also keenly monitor if the countries have appropriate plan to curb noise pollution to meet the sustainable development goals.

Keywords: decibel, environment, noise, pollution

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Authors: M. Azharul Islam, M. Russel Sarker, M. Shahadat Hossen

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Air pollution is one of the major environmental problems that have gained importance in all over the world. Air pollution is a problem for all of us. The present study was conducted to explore the people’s perception level and awareness of air pollution in selected areas of Mymensingh in Bangladesh. Health impacts of air pollution also studied through personal interview and structured questionnaire. The relationship of independent variables (age, educational qualification, family size, residence and communication exposure) with the respondent’s perception level and awareness of air pollution (dependent variable) was studied to achieve the objectives of the study. About 600 respondents were selected randomly from six sites for collecting data during the period of July 2016 to June 2017. Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficients were computed to examine the relationship between the concerned variables. The results revealed that about half (46.67%) of the respondents had a medium level of perception and awareness about air pollution in their areas where 31.67 percent had low, and 21.67 percent had a high level. In rural areas of the study sites, 43.33 percent respondents had low, 50 percent had medium, and only 6.67 percent had high perception and awareness on air pollution. In case of urban areas, 20 percent respondents had low, 43.33 percent had medium, and 36.67 percent had a high level of awareness and perception on air pollution. The majority of the respondents (93.33 percent) were lacking of proper awareness about air pollution in rural areas while 63.33 percent in urban areas. Out of five independent variables, three variables such as- educational qualification, residence status and communication exposure had positive and significant relationship. Age of respondents had negative and significant relationship with their awareness of air pollution where family size of the respondents had no significant relationship with their perception and awareness of air pollution. Thousands of people live in urban areas where urban smog, particle pollution, and toxic pollutants pose serious health concerns. But most of the respondents of the urban sites are not familiarize about the real causes of air pollution. Respondents exposed higher level of experience for air pollutants, such as- irritation of the eyes, coughing, tightness of chest and many health difficulties. But respondents of both rural and urban area hugely suffered such health problems and the tendency of certain difficulties increased day by day. In this study, most of the respondents had lack of knowledge on the causes of such health difficulties due to their lower perception level. Proper attempts should be taken to raise literacy level, communication exposure to increase the perception and awareness of air pollution among the respondents of the study areas. Extra care with above concerned fields should be taken to increase perception and awareness of air pollution in rural areas.

Keywords: air pollution, awareness, health impacts, perception of people

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Authors: A. Dėdelė, A. Miškinytė

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The assessment of air pollution exposure in different microenvironments is important for better understanding the relationship between health effects caused by air pollution. The recent researches revealed that the level of air pollution in transport microenvironment contributes considerably to the total exposure of air pollution. The aim of the study was to determine air pollution of nitrogen dioxide and to assess the exposure of NO2 dependence on the chosen commuting mode using a global positioning system (GPS). The same travel destination was chosen and 30 rides in three different commuting modes: cycling, walking, and public transport were made. Every different mean of transport is associated with different route. GPS device and travel diary data were used to track all routes of different commuting modes. Air pollution of nitrogen dioxide was determined using the ADMS-Urban dispersion model. The average annual concentration of nitrogen dioxide was modeled for 2011 year in Kaunas city. The geographical information systems were used to visualize the travel routes, to create maps indicating the route of different commuting modes and to combine modelled nitrogen dioxide data. The results showed that there is a significant difference between the selected commuting mode and the exposure of nitrogen dioxide. The concentrations in the microenvironments were 22.4 μg/m3, 21.4 μg/m3, and 25.9 μg/m3 for cycling, walking and public transport respectively. Of all the modes of commuting, the highest average exposure of nitrogen dioxide was found travelling by public transport, while the lowest average concentration of NO2 was determined by walking.

Keywords: nitrogen dioxide, dispersion model, commuting mode, GPS

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Authors: Katawut Kaewbanjong

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We analyzed a volume of data and found significant user satisfaction in software project factors. A statistical significance analysis (logistic regression) and collinearity analysis determined the significance factors from a group of 71 pre-defined factors from 191 software projects in ISBSG Release 12. The eight prediction models used for testing the prediction potential of these factors were Neural network, k-NN, Naïve Bayes, Random forest, Decision tree, Gradient boosted tree, linear regression and logistic regression prediction model. Fifteen pre-defined factors were truly significant in predicting user satisfaction, and they provided 82.71% prediction accuracy when used with a neural network prediction model. These factors were client-server, personnel changes, total defects delivered, project inactive time, industry sector, application type, development type, how methodology was acquired, development techniques, decision making process, intended market, size estimate approach, size estimate method, cost recording method, and effort estimate method. These findings may benefit software development managers considerably.

Keywords: prediction model, statistical analysis, software project, user satisfaction factor

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Authors: Xiang-Yao Zheng, Jen-Cheng Wang, Joe-Air Jiang

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Improving the line ampacity while using existing power grids is an important issue that electricity dispatchers are now facing. Using the information provided by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines, an overhead power grid can operate safely. However, dispatchers usually lack real-time DTR information. Thus, this study proposes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based method, which is one of the neural network models. The LSTM-based method predicts the DTR of lines using the weather data provided by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. The possible thermal bottlenecks at different locations along the line and the margin of line ampacity can be real-time determined by the proposed LSTM-based prediction method. A case study that targets the 345 kV power grid of TaiPower in Taiwan is utilized to examine the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is useful to provide the information for the smart grid application in the future.

Keywords: electricity dispatch, line ampacity prediction, dynamic thermal rating, long-short-term memory neural network, smart grid

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Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar

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Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).

Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling

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Authors: K. Petcharaporn, S. Kumchoo

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The acidity (citric acid) is one of the chemical contents that can refer to the internal quality and the maturity index of tomato. The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR). Spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, quality, prediction, transmittance, titratable acidity, citric acid

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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Authors: Ramadhani Yasyfi Cysela, Adinda Syifa Azhari, Eleonora Agustine

Abstract:

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that about a quarter of the diseases facing mankind today occur due to environmental pollution. The soil is a part of environment that have a widespread problem. The contaminated soil should no longer be used to grow food because the chemicals can leech into the food and harm people who eat it. The chemical fertilizer industry gives specific effect due to soil pollution. To determine ammonia and urea emissions from fertilizer industry, we can use physical characteristic of soil, which is magnetic susceptibility. Rock magnetism is used as a proxy indicator to determine changes in physical properties. Magnetic susceptibilities of samples in low and high frequency have been measured by Bartington MS2B magnetic susceptibility measurement device. The sample was taken from different area which located closer by pollution source and far from the pollution source. The susceptibility values of polluted samples in topsoil were quite low, with range from 187.1- 494.8 [x 10-8 m3 kg-1] when free polluted area’s sample has high values (1188.7- 2237.8 [x 10-8 m3 kg-1 ]). From this studies shows that susceptibility values in areas of the fertilizer industry are lower than the free polluted area.

Keywords: environmental, magnetic susceptibility, rock magnetism, soil pollution

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Authors: Soha A. Bahanshal, Byung G. Kim

Abstract:

Identification of patients at high risk for hospital readmission is of crucial importance for quality health care and cost reduction. Predicting hospital readmissions among diabetic patients has been of great interest to many researchers and health decision makers. We build a prediction model to predict hospital readmission for diabetic patients within 30 days of discharge. The core of the prediction model is a modified k Nearest Neighbor called Hybrid Fuzzy Weighted k Nearest Neighbor algorithm. The prediction is performed on a patient dataset which consists of more than 70,000 patients with 50 attributes. We applied data preprocessing using different techniques in order to handle data imbalance and to fuzzify the data to suit the prediction algorithm. The model so far achieved classification accuracy of 80% compared to other models that only use k Nearest Neighbor.

Keywords: machine learning, prediction, classification, hybrid fuzzy weighted k-nearest neighbor, diabetic hospital readmission

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

Abstract:

The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of high-performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice river catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: flood prediction process, high performance computing, online flood prediction system, parallelization

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Authors: Stamatis Zoras, Vasilis Evagelopoulos, Theodoros Staurakas

Abstract:

The association between elevated air pollution levels and extreme climate conditions (temperature, particulate matter, ozone levels, etc.) and mental consequences has been, recently, the focus of significant number of studies. It varies depending on the time of the year it occurs either during the hot period or cold periods but, specifically, when extreme air pollution and weather events are observed, e.g. air pollution episodes and persistent heatwaves. It also varies spatially due to different effects of air quality and climate extremes to human health when considering metropolitan or rural areas. An air pollutant concentration and a climate extreme are taking a different form of impact if the focus area is countryside or in the urban environment. In the built environment the climate extreme effects are driven through the formed microclimate which must be studied more efficiently. Variables such as biological, age groups etc may be implicated by different environmental factors such as increased air pollution/noise levels and overheating of buildings in comparison to rural areas. Gridded air quality and climate variables derived from the land surface observations network of West Macedonia in Greece will be analysed against mortality data in a spatial format in the region of West Macedonia. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools will be used for data correction and prediction of health deterioration with climatic conditions and air pollution at local scale. This would reveal the built environment implications against the countryside. The air pollution and climatic data have been collected from meteorological stations and span the period from 2000 to 2009. These will be projected against the mortality rates data in daily, monthly, seasonal and annual grids. The grids will be operated as AI-based warning models for decision makers in order to map the health conditions in rural and urban areas to ensure improved awareness of the healthcare system by taken into account the predicted changing climate conditions. Gridded data of climate conditions, air quality levels against mortality rates will be presented by AI-analysed gridded indicators of the implicated variables. An Al-based gridded warning platform at local scales is then developed for future system awareness platform for regional level.

Keywords: air quality, artificial inteligence, climatic conditions, mortality

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

Abstract:

The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

Procedia PDF Downloads 520