Search results for: Kronecker indices
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 881

Search results for: Kronecker indices

611 Topological Indices of Some Graph Operations

Authors: U. Mary

Abstract:

Let be a graph with a finite, nonempty set of objects called vertices together with a set of unordered pairs of distinct vertices of called edges. The vertex set is denoted by and the edge set by. Given two graphs and the wiener index of, wiener index for the splitting graph of a graph, the first Zagreb index of and its splitting graph, the 3-steiner wiener index of, the 3-steiner wiener index of a special graph are explored in this paper.

Keywords: complementary prism graph, first Zagreb index, neighborhood corona graph, steiner distance, splitting graph, steiner wiener index, wiener index

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610 The Effect of Two Methods of Upper and Lower Resistance Exercise Training on C-Reactive Protein, Interleukin-6 and Intracellular Adhesion Molecule-1 in Healthy Untrained Women

Authors: Leyla Sattarzadeh, Maghsoud Peeri, Mohammadali Azarbaijani, Hasan Matin Homaee

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Inflammation by various mechanisms may cause atherosclerosis. Systemic circulating inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), pro-inflammatory cytokines such as Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and adhesion molecules like Intracellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1) are the predictors of cardiovascular diseases. Regarding the conflicting results about the effect of resistance exercise training on these inflammatory markers, the present study aimed to examine the effect of eight week different patterns of resistance exercise training on CRP, IL-6 and ICAM-1 levels in healthy untrained women. 40 volunteered and healthy untrained female university students (aged: 21+ 3 yr., Body Mass Index: 21.5+ 3.5 kg/m2) were selected purposefully and divided into three groups. At the end of training protocol and after subjects drop during the protocol in upper body exercise training (n=11), lower body (n=12) completed the eight week of training period although the control group (n=7) did anything. Blood samples gathered pre and post experimental period and CRP, IL-6 and ICAM-1 levels were evaluated using special laboratory kits, then the difference of pre and post values of each indices analyzed using one way Analysis of Variance (α < 0.05). The results of one way ANOVA for difference of pre and post values of CRP and ICAM-1 showed no significant changes due to the exercise training. But there were significant differences between groups about IL-6. Tukey post- hoc test indicated that there is significant difference between the differences of pre and post values of IL-6 between lower body exercise training group and control group, and eight weeks of lower body exercise training lead to significant changes in IL-6 values. There were no changes in anthropometric indices. The findings show that the different patterns of upper and lower body exercise training by involving the different amount of muscles altered the IL-6 values in lower body exercise training group probably because of engaging the bigger amount of muscles, but showed any significant changes about CRP and ICAM-1 probably due to intensity and duration of exercise or the lower levels of these markers at baseline of healthy people.

Keywords: C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, intracellular adhesion molecule-1, resistance training

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609 Investigation of Effective Parameters on Water Quality of Iranian Rivers Using Hydrochemical and Statistical Methods

Authors: Maryam Sayadi, Rana Sedighpour, Hossein Rezaie

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In this study, in order to evaluate water quality of Gamasiab and Gharehsoo rivers located in Kermanshah province, the information of a 5-year statistical period during the years 2014-2018 was used. To evaluate the hydrochemistry of water, first the type and hydrogeochemical facies of river water were determined using Stiff and Piper diagrams. Then, based on Gibbs diagram and combination diagrams, the factors controlling the chemical parameters of the two rivers were identified. Saturation indices were used to predict the possibility of dissolution and deposition of some minerals. Then, in order to classify water in different sections, fourteen water quality indicators for different uses along with WHO standard were used. Finally, factor analysis was used to determine the processes affecting the hydrochemistry of the two rivers. The results of this study showed that in both rivers, the predominant type and facies are bicarbonate of calcite. Also, the main factor in changing the chemical quality of water in both Gamasiab and Gharehsoo rivers is the water-rock reaction. According to the results of factor analysis in both rivers, two factors have the greatest impact on water quality in the region. Among the parameters of Gamasiab river in the first factor, HCO3-, Na+ and Cl-, respectively, had the highest factor loads, and in the second factor, SO42- and Mg2+ were selected as the main parameters. The parameters Ca2+, Cl- and Na have the highest factor loads in the first factor and in the second factor Mg2+ and SO42- have the highest factor loads in Gharehsoo river. The dissolution of carbonate formations due to their abundance and expansion in the two basins has a more significant effect on changing water chemistry. It has saturated the water of rivers with aragonite, calcite and dolomite. Due to the low contribution of the second factor in changing the chemical parameters, the water of both rivers is saturated with respect to evaporative minerals such as gypsum, halite and anhydrite in all stations. Based on Schoeller diagrams, Wilcox and other quality indicators in these two sections, the amount of main physicochemical parameters are in the desired range for drinking and agriculture. The results of Langelier, Ryznar, Larson-Skold and Puckorius indices showed that water is corrosive in industry.

Keywords: factor analysis, hydrochemical, saturation index, surface water quality

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608 Discrimination between Defective and Non-Defective Coffee Beans Using a Laser Prism Spectrometer

Authors: A. Belay, B. Kebede

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The concentration- and temperature-dependent refractive indices of solutions extracted from defective and non-defective coffee beans have been investigated using a He–Ne laser. The refractive index has a linear relationship with the presumed concentration of the coffee solutions in the range of 0.5–3%. Higher and lower values of refractive index were obtained for immature and non-defective coffee beans, respectively. The Refractive index of bean extracts can be successfully used to separate defective from non-defective beans.

Keywords: coffee extract, refractive index, temperature dependence

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607 Association of Phosphorus and Magnesium with Fat Indices in Children with Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a disease associated with obesity. It is a complicated clinical problem possibly affecting body composition as well as macrominerals. These parameters gain further attention, particularly in the pediatric population. The aim of this study is to investigate the amount of discrete body composition fractions in groups that differ in the severity of obesity. Also, the possible associations with calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), magnesium (Mg) will be examined. The study population was divided into four groups. Twenty-eight, 29, 34, and 34 children were involved in Group 1 (healthy), 2 (obese), 3 (morbid obese), and 4 (MetS), respectively. Institutional Ethical Committee approved the study protocol. Informed consent forms were obtained from the participants. The classification of obese groups was performed based upon the recommendations of the World Health Organization. Metabolic syndrome components were defined. Serum Ca, P, Mg concentrations were measured. Within the scope of body composition, fat mass, fat-free mass, protein mass, mineral mass were determined by a body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology. Weight, height, waist circumference, hip circumference, head circumference, and neck circumference values were recorded. Body mass index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index, fat mass index, and fat-free mass index values were calculated. Data were statistically evaluated and interpreted. There was no statistically significant difference among the groups in terms of Ca and P concentrations. Magnesium concentrations differed between Group 1 and Group 4. Strong negative correlations were detected between P as well as Mg and fat mass index as well as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index in Group 4, the group, which comprised morbid obese children with MetS. This study emphasized unique associations of P and Mg minerals with diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index and fat mass index during the evaluation of morbid obese children with MetS. It was also concluded that diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index and fat mass index were more proper indices in comparison with body mass index and fat-free mass index for the purpose of defining body composition in children.

Keywords: children, fat mass, fat-free mass, macrominerals, obesity

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606 EcoLife and Greed Index Measurement: An Alternative Tool to Promote Sustainable Communities and Eco-Justice

Authors: Louk Aourelien Andrianos, Edward Dommen, Athena Peralta

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Greed, as epitomized by overconsumption of natural resources, is at the root of ecological destruction and unsustainability of modern societies. Presently economies rely on unrestricted structural greed which fuels unlimited economic growth, overconsumption, and individualistic competitive behavior. Structural greed undermines the life support system on earth and threatens ecological integrity, social justice and peace. The World Council of Churches (WCC) has developed a program on ecological and economic justice (EEJ) with the aim to promote an economy of life where the economy is embedded in society and society in ecology. This paper aims at analyzing and assessing the economy of life (EcoLife) by offering an empirical tool to measure and monitor the root causes and effects of unsustainability resulting from human greed on global, national, institutional and individual levels. This holistic approach is based on the integrity of ecology and economy in a society founded on justice. The paper will discuss critical questions such as ‘what is an economy of life’ and ‘how to measure and control it from the effect of greed’. A model called GLIMS, which stands for Greed Lines and Indices Measurement System is used to clarify the concept of greed and help measuring the economy of life index by fuzzy logic reasoning. The inputs of the model are from statistical indicators of natural resources consumption, financial realities, economic performance, social welfare and ethical and political facts. The outputs are concrete measures of three primary indices of ecological, economic and socio-political greed (ECOL-GI, ECON-GI, SOCI-GI) and one overall multidimensional economy of life index (EcoLife-I). EcoLife measurement aims to build awareness of an economy life and to address the effects of greed in systemic and structural aspects. It is a tool for ethical diagnosis and policy making.

Keywords: greed line, sustainability indicators, fuzzy logic, eco-justice, World Council of Churches (WCC)

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605 Red-Tide Detection and Prediction Using MODIS Data in the Arabian Gulf of Qatar

Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen

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Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination

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604 Impact of Two Xenobiotics in Mosquitofish: Gambusia affinis: Several Approaches

Authors: Chouahda Salima, Soltani Noureddine

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The present study is a part of biological control against mosquitoes. It aims to assess the impact of two xenobiotics (a selective insect growth regulator: halofenozide and heavy metals: cadmium, more toxic and widespread in the region) in mosquitofish: Gambusia affinis. Several approaches were examined: Acute toxicity of cadmium and halofenozide: The acute toxicity of cadmium and halofenozide was examined in juvenile and adult males and females of G. affinis at different concentrations, cadmium causes mortality of the species studied with a relation dose-response. In laboratory conditions, the impact of cadmium was determined on two biomarkers of environmental stress: glutathione and acetylcholinesterase. The results show that the juvenile followed by adult males are more susceptible than adult females, while the halofenozide does not have any effect on the mortality of juvenile and adult males and females of G.affinis. Chronic toxicity of cadmium and halofenozide: both xenobiotics were added to the water fish raising at different doses tested in juveniles and adults males and females during two months of experience. Growth and metric indices; results show that halofenozide added to the water juveniles of G. affinis has no effect on their growth (length and weight). On the other side, the cadmium at the dose 5 µg/L shows a higher toxicity against juvenile, where he appears to reduce significantly their linear growth and weight. In females, the both xenobiotics have significant effects on metric indices, but these effects are more important on the hepatosomatic index that the gonadosomatic index and the coefficient of condition. Biomarkers; acetylcholinesterase (AChE), glutathione S-transferase (GST) and glutathione (GSH) used in assessing of environmental stress were measured in juveniles and adults males and females. The response of these biomarkers reveals an inhibition of AChE specific activity, an induction of GST activity, and decrease of GSH rates in juveniles in the end of experiment and during chronic treatment adult males and females. The effect of these biomarkers is more pronounced in females compared to males and juveniles. These different biomarkers have a similar profile for the duration of exposure.

Keywords: gambusia affinis, insecticide, heavy metal, morphology, biomarkers, chronic toxicity, acute toxicity, pollution

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603 A Newspapers Expectations Indicator from Web Scraping

Authors: Pilar Rey del Castillo

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This document describes the building of an average indicator of the general sentiments about the future exposed in the newspapers in Spain. The raw data are collected through the scraping of the Digital Periodical and Newspaper Library website. Basic tools of natural language processing are later applied to the collected information to evaluate the sentiment strength of each word in the texts using a polarized dictionary. The last step consists of summarizing these sentiments to produce daily indices. The results are a first insight into the applicability of these techniques to produce periodic sentiment indicators.

Keywords: natural language processing, periodic indicator, sentiment analysis, web scraping

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602 Study on Optimal Control Strategy of PM2.5 in Wuhan, China

Authors: Qiuling Xie, Shanliang Zhu, Zongdi Sun

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In this paper, we analyzed the correlation relationship among PM2.5 from other five Air Quality Indices (AQIs) based on the grey relational degree, and built a multivariate nonlinear regression equation model of PM2.5 and the five monitoring indexes. For the optimal control problem of PM2.5, we took the partial large Cauchy distribution of membership equation as satisfaction function. We established a nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximum performance to price ratio. And the optimal control scheme is given.

Keywords: grey relational degree, multiple linear regression, membership function, nonlinear programming

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601 Assessing the Effect of Urban Growth on Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Conakry Guinea

Authors: Arafan Traore, Teiji Watanabe

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Conakry, the capital city of the Republic of Guinea, has experienced a rapid urban expansion and population increased in the last two decades, which has resulted in remarkable local weather and climate change, raise energy demand and pollution and treating social, economic and environmental development. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of the land surface temperature (LST) is retrieved to characterize the effect of urban growth on the thermal environment and quantify its relationship with biophysical indices, a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a normalized difference built up Index (NDBI). Landsat data TM and OLI/TIRS acquired respectively in 1986, 2000 and 2016 were used for LST retrieval and Land use/cover change analysis. A quantitative analysis based on the integration of a remote sensing and a geography information system (GIS) has revealed an important increased in the LST pattern in the average from 25.21°C in 1986 to 27.06°C in 2000 and 29.34°C in 2016, which was quite eminent with an average gain in surface temperature of 4.13°C over 30 years study period. Additionally, an analysis using a Pearson correlation (r) between (LST) and the biophysical indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a normalized difference built-up Index (NDBI) has revealed a negative relationship between LST and NDVI and a strong positive relationship between LST and NDBI. Which implies that an increase in the NDVI value can reduce the LST intensity; conversely increase in NDBI value may strengthen LST intensity in the study area. Although Landsat data were found efficient in assessing the thermal environment in Conakry, however, the method needs to be refined with in situ measurements of LST in the future studies. The results of this study may assist urban planners, scientists and policies makers concerned about climate variability to make decisions that will enhance sustainable environmental practices in Conakry.

Keywords: Conakry, land surface temperature, urban heat island, geography information system, remote sensing, land use/cover change

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600 Application of DSSAT-CSM Model for Estimating Rain-Water Productivity of Maize (Zea Mays L.) Under Changing Climate of Central Rift Valley, Ethiopia

Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Pressing demands for agricultural products and its associated pressure on water availability in the semi-arid areas demanded information for strategic decision-making in the changing climate conditions of Ethiopia. Availing such information through traditional agronomic research methods is not sufficient unless supported through the application of decision-support tools. The CERES (Crop Environmental Resource Synthesis) model in DSSAT-CSM was evaluated for estimating yield and water productivity of maize under two soil types (Andosol and Luvisol) of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. A six-year data (2010 – 2017) obtained from national fertilizer determination experiments were used for model evaluation. Pertinent statistical indices were employed to evaluate model performance. Following model evaluation, yield and rain-water productivity of maize was assessed for the baseline (1981-2010) and future climate (2050’s and 2080’s) scenario. The model performed well in predicting phenology, growth, and yield of maize for the different seasons and phosphorous rates. A good agreement between simulated and observed grain yield was indicated by low values of the RMSE (0.15 - 0.37 Mg/ha) and other indices for the two soil types. The evaluated model predicted a decline in the potential (23.8 to 26.7% at Melkassa and from 21.7 to 26.1% at Ziway under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively) and water-limited yield (15 to 18.3% at Melkassa and by 6.5 to 10.5% at Ziway) in the mid-century due to climate change. Consequently, a decline in water productivity was projected in the future periods that necessitate availing options to improve water productivity in the region. In conclusion, the DSSAT-CERES-maize model can be used to simulate maize (Melkassa-2) phenology, growth and grain yield, as well as simulate water productivity under different management scenarios that can help to identify options to improve water productivity in the changing climate of the semi-arid central Rift valley of Ethiopia.

Keywords: andosol, CERES-maize, luvisol, model evaluation, water productivity

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599 Social Vulnerability Mapping in New York City to Discuss Current Adaptation Practice

Authors: Diana Reckien

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Vulnerability assessments are increasingly used to support policy-making in complex environments, like urban areas. Usually, vulnerability studies include the construction of aggregate (sub-) indices and the subsequent mapping of indices across an area of interest. Vulnerability studies show a couple of advantages: they are great communication tools, can inform a wider general debate about environmental issues, and can help allocating and efficiently targeting scarce resources for adaptation policy and planning. However, they also have a number of challenges: Vulnerability assessments are constructed on the basis of a wide range of methodologies and there is no single framework or methodology that has proven to serve best in certain environments, indicators vary highly according to the spatial scale used, different variables and metrics produce different results, and aggregate or composite vulnerability indicators that are mapped easily distort or bias the picture of vulnerability as they hide the underlying causes of vulnerability and level out conflicting reasons of vulnerability in space. So, there is urgent need to further develop the methodology of vulnerability studies towards a common framework, which is one reason of the paper. We introduce a social vulnerability approach, which is compared with other approaches of bio-physical or sectoral vulnerability studies relatively developed in terms of a common methodology for index construction, guidelines for mapping, assessment of sensitivity, and verification of variables. Two approaches are commonly pursued in the literature. The first one is an additive approach, in which all potentially influential variables are weighted according to their importance for the vulnerability aspect, and then added to form a composite vulnerability index per unit area. The second approach includes variable reduction, mostly Principal Component Analysis (PCA) that reduces the number of variables that are interrelated into a smaller number of less correlating components, which are also added to form a composite index. We test these two approaches of constructing indices on the area of New York City as well as two different metrics of variables used as input and compare the outcome for the 5 boroughs of NY. Our analysis yields that the mapping exercise yields particularly different results in the outer regions and parts of the boroughs, such as Outer Queens and Staten Island. However, some of these parts, particularly the coastal areas receive the highest attention in the current adaptation policy. We imply from this that the current adaptation policy and practice in NY might need to be discussed, as these outer urban areas show relatively low social vulnerability as compared with the more central parts, i.e. the high dense areas of Manhattan, Central Brooklyn, Central Queens and the Southern Bronx. The inner urban parts receive lesser adaptation attention, but bear a higher risk of damage in case of hazards in those areas. This is conceivable, e.g., during large heatwaves, which would more affect more the inner and poorer parts of the city as compared with the outer urban areas. In light of the recent planning practice of NY one needs to question and discuss who in NY makes adaptation policy for whom, but the presented analyses points towards an under representation of the needs of the socially vulnerable population, such as the poor, the elderly, and ethnic minorities, in the current adaptation practice in New York City.

Keywords: vulnerability mapping, social vulnerability, additive approach, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), New York City, United States, adaptation, social sensitivity

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598 Pragmatic Development of Chinese Sentence Final Particles via Computer-Mediated Communication

Authors: Qiong Li

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This study investigated in which condition computer-mediated communication (CMC) could promote pragmatic development. The focal feature included four Chinese sentence final particles (SFPs), a, ya, ba, and ne. They occur frequently in Chinese, and function as mitigators to soften the tone of speech. However, L2 acquisition of SFPs is difficult, suggesting the necessity of additional exposure to or explicit instruction on Chinese SFPs. This study follows this line and aims to explore two research questions: (1) Is CMC combined with data-driven instruction more effective than CMC alone in promoting L2 Chinese learners’ SFP use? (2) How does L2 Chinese learners’ SFP use change over time, as compared to the production of native Chinese speakers? The study involved 19 intermediate-level learners of Chinese enrolled at a private American university. They were randomly assigned to two groups: (1) the control group (N = 10), which was exposed to SFPs through CMC alone, (2) the treatment group (N = 9), which was exposed to SFPs via CMC and data-driven instruction. Learners interacted with native speakers on given topics through text-based CMC over Skype. Both groups went through six 30-minute CMC sessions on a weekly basis, with a one-week interval after the first two CMC sessions and a two-week interval after the second two CMC sessions (nine weeks in total). The treatment group additionally received a data-driven instruction after the first two sessions. Data analysis focused on three indices: token frequency, type frequency, and acceptability of SFP use. Token frequency was operationalized as the raw occurrence of SFPs per clause. Type frequency was the range of SFPs. Acceptability was rated by two native speakers using a rating rubric. The results showed that the treatment group made noticeable progress over time on the three indices. The production of SFPs approximated the native-like level. In contrast, the control group only slightly improved on token frequency. Only certain SFPs (a and ya) reached the native-like use. Potential explanations for the group differences were discussed in two aspects: the property of Chinese SFPs and the role of CMC and data-driven instruction. Though CMC provided the learners with opportunities to notice and observe SFP use, as a feature with low saliency, SFPs were not easily noticed in input. Data-driven instruction in the treatment group directed the learners’ attention to these particles, which facilitated the development.

Keywords: computer-mediated communication, data-driven instruction, pragmatic development, second language Chinese, sentence final particles

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597 Hydrogeochemical Assessment, Evaluation and Characterization of Groundwater Quality in Ore, South-Western, Nigeria

Authors: Olumuyiwa Olusola Falowo

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One of the objectives of the Millennium Development Goals is to have sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. In line with this objective, an assessment of groundwater quality was carried out in Odigbo Local Government Area of Ondo State in November – February, 2019 to assess the drinking, domestic and irrigation uses of the water. Samples from 30 randomly selected ground water sources; 16 shallow wells and 14 from boreholes and analyzed using American Public Health Association method for the examination of water and wastewater. Water quality index calculation, and diagrams such as Piper diagram, Gibbs diagram and Wilcox diagram have been used to assess the groundwater in conjunction with irrigation indices such as % sodium, sodium absorption ratio, permeability index, magnesium ratio, Kelly ratio, and electrical conductivity. In addition statistical Principal component analysis were used to determine the homogeneity and source(s) influencing the chemistry of the groundwater. The results show that all the parameters are within the permissible limit of World Health Organization. The physico-chemical analysis of groundwater samples indicates that the dominant major cations are in decreasing order of Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, K+ and the dominant anions are HCO-3, Cl-, SO-24, NO-3. The values of water quality index varies suggest a Good water (WQI of 50-75) accounts for 70% of the study area. The dominant groundwater facies revealed in this study are the non-carbonate alkali (primary salinity) exceeds 50% (zone 7); and transition zone with no one cation-anion pair exceeds 50% (zone 9), while evaporation; rock–water interaction, and precipitation; and silicate weathering process are the dominant processes in the hydrogeochemical evolution of the groundwater. The study indicates that waters were found within the permissible limits of irrigation indices adopted, and plot on excellent category on Wilcox plot. In conclusion, the water in the study area are good/suitable for drinking, domestic and irrigation purposes with low equivalent salinity concentrate and moderate electrical conductivity.

Keywords: equivalent salinity concentration, groundwater quality, hydrochemical facies, principal component analysis, water-rock interaction

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596 Sustainable Geographic Information System-Based Map for Suitable Landfill Sites in Aley and Chouf, Lebanon

Authors: Allaw Kamel, Bazzi Hasan

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Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is among the most significant sources which threaten the global environmental health. Solid Waste Management has been an important environmental problem in developing countries because of the difficulties in finding sustainable solutions for solid wastes. Therefore, more efforts are needed to be implemented to overcome this problem. Lebanon has suffered a severe solid waste management problem in 2015, and a new landfill site was proposed to solve the existing problem. The study aims to identify and locate the most suitable area to construct a landfill taking into consideration the sustainable development to overcome the present situation and protect the future demands. Throughout the article, a landfill site selection methodology was discussed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Several environmental, economic and social factors were taken as criterion for selection of a landfill. Soil, geology, and LUC (Land Use and Land Cover) indices with the Sustainable Development Index were main inputs to create the final map of Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) for landfill site. Different factors were determined to define each index. Input data of each factor was managed, visualized and analyzed using GIS. GIS was used as an important tool to identify suitable areas for landfill. Spatial Analysis (SA), Analysis and Management GIS tools were implemented to produce input maps capable of identifying suitable areas related to each index. Weight has been assigned to each factor in the same index, and the main weights were assigned to each index used. The combination of the different indices map generates the final output map of ESA. The output map was reclassified into three suitability classes of low, moderate, and high suitability. Results showed different locations suitable for the construction of a landfill. Results also reflected the importance of GIS and MCDA in helping decision makers finding a solution of solid wastes by a sanitary landfill.

Keywords: sustainable development, landfill, municipal solid waste (MSW), geographic information system (GIS), multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA), environmentally sensitive area (ESA)

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595 Synthesis of the Robust Regulators on the Basis of the Criterion of the Maximum Stability Degree

Authors: S. A. Gayvoronsky, T. A. Ezangina

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The robust control system objects with interval-undermined parameters is considers in this paper. Initial information about the system is its characteristic polynomial with interval coefficients. On the basis of coefficient estimations of quality indices and criterion of the maximum stability degree, the methods of synthesis of a robust regulator parametric is developed. The example of the robust stabilization system synthesis of the rope tension is given in this article.

Keywords: interval polynomial, controller synthesis, analysis of quality factors, maximum degree of stability, robust degree of stability, robust oscillation, system accuracy

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594 The Effect of Different Patterns of Upper, Lower and Whole Body Resistance Exercise Training on Systemic and Vascular Inflammatory Factors in Healthy Untrained Women

Authors: Leyla Sattarzadeh, Shahin Fathi Molk Kian, Maghsoud Peeri, Mohammadali Azarbaijani, Hasan Matin Homaee

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Inflammation by various mechanisms may cause atherosclerosis. Systemic circulating inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), pro-inflammatory cytokines such as Interleukin-6 (IL-6), vascular inflammatory markers as adhesion molecules like Intracellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and Vascular Cell Adhesion Molecule-1 (VCAM-1) are the predictors of cardiovascular diseases. Regarding the conflicting results about the effect of different patterns of resistance exercise training on these inflammatory markers, present study aimed to examine the effect of different patterns of eight week resistance exercise training on CRP, IL-6, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels in healthy untrained women. 56 healthy volunteered untrained female university students (aged: 21 ± 3 yr., Body Mass Index: 21.5 ± 3.5 kg/m²) were selected purposefully and divided into four groups. At the end of training protocol and after subject drop during the protocol, upper body exercise training (n=11), lower body (n=12) and whole body resistance exercise training group (n=11) completed the eight weeks of training period although the control group (n=7) did anything. Blood samples gathered pre and post-experimental period and CRP, IL-6, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels were evaluated using special laboratory kits, then the difference of pre and post values of each indices analyzed using one-way analysis of variance (α < 0.05). The results of one way ANOVA for difference of pre and post values of CRP, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 showed no significant changes due to the exercise training, but there were significant differences between groups about IL-6. Tukey post- hoc test indicated that there is significant difference between the differences of pre and post values of IL-6 between lower body exercise training group and control group, and eight weeks of lower body exercise training lead to significant changes in IL-6 values. There were no changes in anthropometric indices. The findings show that the different patterns of upper, lower and whole body exercise training by involving the different amounts of muscles altered the IL-6 values in lower body exercise training group probably because of engaging the bigger amount of muscles, but showed any significant changes about CRP, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 probably due to intensity and duration of exercise or the lower levels of these markers at baseline of healthy people.

Keywords: resistance training, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, intracellular adhesion molecule-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1

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593 Investigation and Monitoring Method of Vector Density in Kaohsiung City

Authors: Chiu-Wen Chang, I-Yun Chang, Wei-Ting Chen, Hui-Ping Ho, Chao-Ying Pan, Joh-Jong Huang

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Dengue is a ‘community disease’ or ‘environmental disease’, as long as the environment exist suitable container (including natural and artificial) for mosquito breeding, once the virus invade will lead to the dengue epidemic. Surveillance of vector density is critical to effective infectious disease control and play an important role in monitoring the dynamics of mosquitoes in community, such as mosquito species, density, distribution area. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship in vector density survey (Breteau index, Adult index, House index, Container index, and Larvae index) form 2014 to 2016 in Kaohsiung City and evaluate the effects of introducing the Breeding Elimination and Appraisal Team (hereinafter referred to as BEAT) as an intervention measure on eliminating dengue vector breeding site started from May 2016. BEAT were performed on people who were suspected of contracting dengue fever, a surrounding area measuring 50 meters by 50 meters was demarcated as the emergency prevention and treatment zone. BEAT would perform weekly vector mosquito inspections and vector mosquito inspections in regions with a high Gravitrap index and assign a risk assessment index to each region. These indices as well as the prevention and treatment results were immediately reported to epidemic prevention-related units every week. The results indicated that, vector indices from 2014 to 2016 showed no statistically significant differences in the Breteau index, adult index, and house index (p > 0.05) but statistically significant differences in the container index and larvae index (p <0.05). After executing the integrated elimination work, container index and larvae index are statistically significant different from 2014 to 2016 in the (p < 0.05). A post hoc test indicated that the container index of 2014 (M = 12.793) was significantly higher than that of 2016 (M = 7.631), and that the larvae index of 2015 (M = 34.065) was significantly lower than that of 2014 (M = 66.867). The results revealed that effective vector density surveillance could highlight the focus breeding site and then implement the immediate control action (BEAT), which successfully decreased the vector density and the risk of dengue epidemic.

Keywords: Breteau index, dengue control, monitoring method, vector density

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592 Parallels between Training Parameters of High-Performance Athletes Determining the Long-Term Adaptation of the Body in Various Sports: Case Study on Different Types of Training and Their Gender Conditioning

Authors: Gheorghe Braniste

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Gender gap has always been in dispute when comparing records and has been a major factor influencing best performances in various sports. Consequently, our study registers the evolution of the difference between men's and women’s best performances within either cyclic or acyclic sports, considering the fact that the training sessions of high performance athletes prove both similarities and differences in long-term adaptation of their body to stress and effort in breaking limits and records. Firstly, for a correct interpretation of the data and tables included in this paper, we must point out that the intense muscular activity has a considerable impact on the structural organization of the organs and systems of the performer's body through the mechanism of motor-visceral reflexes, forming a high working capacity suitable for intense muscular activity. The opportunity to obtaine high sports results during the official competitions is due, on the one hand, to the genetic characteristics of the athlete's body, and on the other hand, to the fact that playing professional sports leaves its mark on the vital morphological and functional parameters. The aim of our research is to study the landmarking differences between male and female athletes and their physical development, together with their growing capacity to stand up to the functional training during the competitive period of their annual training cycle. In order to evaluate the physical development of the athletes, the data of the anthropometric screenings obtained at the Olympic Training Center of the selected teams of the Republic of Moldova were interpreted and rated. During the study of physical development in terms of body height and weight, vital capacity, thoracic excursion, maximum force (Fmax), dynamometry of the hand and back, a further evaluation of the physical development indices that allow an evaluation of complex physical development were registered. The interdependence of the results obtained in performance sports with the morphological and functional particularities of the athletes' body is firmly determined and cannot be disputed. Nevertheless, registered data proved that with the increase of the training capacity, the morphological and functional abilities of the female body increase and, in some respects, approach and even slightly surpass the men in certain sports.

Keywords: physical development, indices, parameters, active body weight, morphological maturity, physical performance

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591 Acute Exposure Of Two Classes Of Fungicides And Its Effects On Hematological Indices Of Fish (Clarius batrachus) - A Comparative Study

Authors: Pallavi Srivastava, Ajay Singh

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Hematological assay has used for evaluation of blood changes according to its environment. It’s studies employed to evaluate possible eco-toxic risk due to the exposure of chemicals and pesticides in aquatic organisms. Fishes serve as a sensitive bio-indicator, as changes occur in its surrounding environment. The aim of present study has two-folds first we observed that after exposure of two doses of each class of fungicide i.e. 1.11mg/l, 2.23mg/l for Propiconazole and 11.43mg/l, 22.87mg/l for Mancozeb show maximum blood changes. Second we conclude that toxic effects and blood changes induced by Propiconazole is greater than Mancozeb.

Keywords: hematological assay, fungicides, bio-indicator, eco-toxic risk

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590 Effect of Methanol Root Extracts of Moringa Oleifera on Lipid Profile Parameters, Atherogenic Indices and HMG – CoA Reductase Activities of Poloxamer 407-Induced Hyperlipidemic Rats

Authors: Matthew Ocheleka Itodo, Ogo Agbo Ogo, Agnes Ogbene Abutu, Bawa Inalegwu

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Hyperlipidemia is characterised by elevated serum total cholesterol and low density and very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and decreased high-density lipoprotein are the risk factor for coronary heart diseases. There are claims by traditional medicine practitioners in Nigeria that Moringa oleifera plants are used for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, but it appears there is no scientific research and, publication or documented work to verify these claims. This study aimed to determine the effect of methanol root extracts of Moringa oleifera on Lipid profile, Atherogenic indices and 3 hydroxyl 3 methylglutaryl Coenzyme A reductase activity of poloxamer 407-induced hyperlipidemic rats. The animals were grouped into 8; Group 1: Normal control, Group 2: Hyperlipidemic control. Groups 2 to 8 were induced with Poloxamer 407 1000 mg/Kg body weight. However, group 3 were treated with standard drugs (atorvastatin). Group 4 was treated with crude extract, and groups 5 to 8 were treated with purified fractions from column chromatography. The preliminary antihyperlipidemic study showed Methanol root extract at 200 mg/kg body weight significantly (p≤0.05) decreased total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, triacylglyceride, 3 hydroxyls 3 methylglutaryl Coenzyme A reductase, and increase high-density lipoprotein of hyperlipidemic treated groups. Screening the extracts for the most potent anti-hyperlipidemic activity reveals that fraction 1 of Total Cholesterol and Fraction 3 of Triacylglyceride have the highest percentage reduction of 56% and 51%, respectively. The atherogenic risk factor of all induced treated rats shows a significant (p<0.05) decrease in levels of Castelli’s risk index II, atherogenic index of plasma and a significant (p<0.05) higher level of Castelli’s risk index I ratio. The study shows that the methanol extract of root possesses antihyperlipidemic effects and may explain why it has been found to be useful in the management of cardiovascular diseases by traditional medicine practitioners.

Keywords: hyperlipidemia, moringa oleifera, poloxamer 407, lipid profile

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589 Comparing Measurements of UV Radiation in Winter and Summer in Finland

Authors: R. Pääkkönen, L. Korpinen, F. Gobba

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The objective of our study is to investigate UV exposure in Finland through sample measurements as a typical case study in summer and winter. We measured UV-BC weighted radiation and calculated a daily dose, which is about 100–150 times the Finnish exposure limit value in summer and 1–6 times in winter. The measured ultraviolet indices varied from 0 to 7 (scale 0–18), which is less than the values obtained in countries that are located farther south from Tampere latitude of 61 degrees. In wintertime, the UV exposure was modest compared to summertime, 50–150 mW/m2 and about 1–5 mW/m2 in summer and winter, respectively. However, technical means to manage UV exposure in Scandinavia are also needed in summer- and springtime.

Keywords: ultraviolet radiation, measurement, winter, summer

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588 Experimental Study on Heat and Mass Transfer of Humidifier for Fuel Cell

Authors: You-Kai Jhang, Yang-Cheng Lu

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Major contributions of this study are threefold: designing a new model of planar-membrane humidifier for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC), an index to measure the Effectiveness (εT) of that humidifier, and an air compressor system to replicate related planar-membrane humidifier experiments. PEMFC as a kind of renewable energy has become more and more important in recent years due to its reliability and durability. To maintain the efficiency of the fuel cell, the membrane of PEMFC need to be controlled in a good hydration condition. How to maintain proper membrane humidity is one of the key issues to optimize PEMFC. We developed new humidifier to recycle water vapor from cathode air outlet so as to keep the moisture content of cathode air inlet in a PEMFC. By measuring parameters such as dry side air outlet dew point temperature, dry side air inlet temperature and humidity, wet side air inlet temperature and humidity, and differential pressure between dry side and wet side, we calculated indices obtained by dew point approach temperature (DPAT), water flux (J), water recovery ratio (WRR), effectiveness (εT), and differential pressure (ΔP). We discussed six topics including sealing effect, flow rate effect, flow direction effect, channel effect, temperature effect, and humidity effect by using these indices. Gas cylinders are used as sources of air supply in many studies of humidifiers. Gas cylinder depletes quickly during experiment at 1kW air flow rate, and it causes replication difficult. In order to ensure high stable air quality and better replication of experimental data, this study designs an air supply system to overcome this difficulty. The experimental result shows that the best rate of pressure loss of humidifier is 0.133×10³ Pa(g)/min at the torque of 25 (N.m). The best humidifier performance ranges from 30-40 (LPM) of air flow rates. The counter flow configured humidifies moisturizes the dry side inlet air more effectively than the parallel flow humidifier. From the performance measurements of the channel plates various rib widths studied in this study, it is found that the narrower the rib width is, the more the performance of humidifier improves. Raising channel width in same hydraulic diameter (Dh ) will obtain higher εT and lower ΔP. Moreover, increasing the dry side air inlet temperature or humidity will lead to lower εT. In addition, when the dry side air inlet temperature exceeds 50°C, the effect becomes even more obvious.

Keywords: PEM fuel cell, water management, membrane humidifier, heat and mass transfer, humidifier performance

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587 The Mediating Role of Positive Psychological Capital in the Relationship between Self-Leadership and Career Maturity among Korean University Students

Authors: Lihyo Sung

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Background: Children and teens in Korea experience extreme levels of academic stress. To perform better on the college entrance exam and gain admission to Korea’s most prestigious universities, they devote a significant portion of their early lives to studying. Because of their excessive preparation for entrance exams, students have become accustomed to passive and involuntary engagement. Any student starting university, however, faces new challenges that require more active involvement and self-regulated practice. As a way to tackle this issue, the study focuses on investigating the mediating effects of positive psychological capital on the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity among Korean university students. Objectives and Hypotheses: The long term goal of this study is to offer insights that promote the use of positive psychological interventions in the development and adaptation of career maturity. The current objective is to assess the role of positive psychological capital as a mediator between self-leadership and career maturity among Korean university students. Based on previous research, the hypotheses are: (a) self-leadership will be positively associated with indices of career maturity, and (b) positive psychological capital will partially or fully mediate the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity. Sample Characteristics and Sample Size: Participants in the current study consisted of undergraduate students enrolled in various courses at 5 large universities in Korea. A total of 181 students participated in the study. Methodology: A quantitative research design was adopted to test the hypotheses proposed in the current study. By using a cross-sectional approach to research, a self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data on indices of positive psychological capital, self-leadership, and career maturity. The data were analyzed by means of Cronbach's alpha, Pierson correlation test, multiple regression, path analysis, and SPSS for Windows version 22.0 using descriptive statistics. Results: Findings showed that positive psychological capital fully mediated the relationship between self-leadership and career maturity. Self-leadership significantly impacted positive psychological capital and career maturity, respectively. Scientific Contribution: The results of the current study provided useful insights into the role of psychological strengths such as positive psychological capital in improving self-leadership and career maturity. Institutions can assist in increasing positive psychological capital through the creation of positive experiences for undergraduate students, such as opportunities for coaching and mentoring.

Keywords: career maturity, mediating role, positive psychological capital, self-leadership

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586 Application of Benford's Law in Analysis of Frankfurt Stock Exchange Index (DAX) Percentage Changes

Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

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585 Experimental Study on Effects of Addition of Rice Husk on Coal Gasification

Authors: M. Bharath, Vasudevan Raghavan, B. V. S. S. S. Prasad, S. R. Chakravarthy

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In this experimental study, effects of addition of rice husk on coal gasification in a bubbling fluidized bed gasifier, operating at atmospheric pressure with air as gasifying agent, are reported. Rice husks comprising of 6.5% and 13% by mass are added to coal. Results show that, when rice husk is added the methane yield increases from volumetric percentage of 0.56% (with no rice husk) to 2.77% (with 13% rice husk). CO and H2 remain almost unchanged and CO2 decreases with addition of rice husk. The calorific value of the synthetic gas is around 2.73 MJ/Nm3. All performance indices, such as cold gas efficiency and carbon conversion, increase with addition of rice husk.

Keywords: bubbling fluidized bed reactor, calorific value, coal gasification, rice husk

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
584 Evaluation of Vitamin D Levels in Obese and Morbid Obese Children

Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Obesity may lead to growing serious health problems throughout the world. Vitamin D appears to play a role in cardiovascular and metabolic health. Vitamin D deficiency may add to derangements in human metabolic systems, particularly those of children. Childhood obesity is associated with an increased risk of chronic and sophisticated diseases. The aim of this study is to investigate associations as well as possible differences related to parameters affected by obesity and their relations with vitamin D status in obese (OB) and morbid obese (MO) children. This study included a total of 78 children. Of them, 41 and 37 were OB and MO, respectively. WHO BMI-for age percentiles were used for the classification of obesity. The values above 99 percentile were defined as MO. Those between 95 and 99 percentiles were included into OB group. Anthropometric measurements were recorded. Basal metabolic rates (BMRs) were measured. Vitamin D status is determined by the measurement of 25-hydroxy cholecalciferol [25- hydroxyvitamin D3, 25(OH)D] using high-performance liquid chromatography. Vitamin D status was evaluated as deficient, insufficient and sufficient. Values < 20.0 ng/ml, values between 20-30 ng/ml and values > 30.0 ng/ml were defined as vitamin D deficient, insufficient and sufficient, respectively. Optimal 25(OH)D level was defined as ≥ 30 ng/ml. SPSSx statistical package program was used for the evaluation of the data. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. Mean ages did not differ between the groups. Significantly increased body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (C) and neck C as well as significantly decreased fasting blood glucose (FBG) and vitamin D values were observed in MO group (p < 0.05). In OB group, 37.5% of the children were vitamin D deficient, and in MO group the corresponding value was 53.6%. No difference between the groups in terms of lipid profile, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and insulin values was noted. There was a severe statistical significance between FBG values of the groups (p < 0.001). Important correlations between BMI, waist C, hip C, neck C and both SBP as well as DBP were found in OB group. In MO group, correlations only with SBP were obtained. In a similar manner, in OB group, correlations were detected between SBP-BMR and DBP-BMR. However, in MO children, BMR correlated only with SBP. The associations of vitamin D with anthropometric indices as well as some lipid parameters were defined. In OB group BMI, waist C, hip C and triglycerides (TRG) were negatively correlated with vitamin D concentrations whereas none of them were detected in MO group. Vitamin D deficiency may contribute to the complications associated with childhood obesity. Loss of correlations between obesity indices-DBP, vitamin D-TRG, as well as relatively lower FBG values, observed in MO group point out that the emergence of MetS components starts during obesity state just before the transition to morbid obesity. Aside from its deficiency state, associations of vitamin D with anthropometric measurements, blood pressures and TRG should also be evaluated before the development of morbid obesity.

Keywords: children, morbid obesity, obesity, vitamin D

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583 The Interaction of Climate Change and Human Health in Italy

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

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The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 215
582 Predicting Recessions with Bivariate Dynamic Probit Model: The Czech and German Case

Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

Procedia PDF Downloads 225