Search results for: Erdogan’s term limit
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5412

Search results for: Erdogan’s term limit

5082 One-Step Time Series Predictions with Recurrent Neural Networks

Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin

Abstract:

Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.

Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning

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5081 Vitamin A Status and Its Correlation with the Dietary Intake of Young Females of Lahore, Pakistan

Authors: Sarah Fatima, Ahmad A. Malik, Saima Sadaf

Abstract:

This study was conducted in order to assess the dietary record and vitamin A status of young females of Lahore. A total sample of 376 consisted of 16 – 20 years of unmarried college going females. Three main tools were adopted: questionnaire, 3-day food diary and serum retinol test. The anthropometric measurements showed that a total of 32.6% of the sample was underweight (BMI < 18.5) and 54.5% had a healthy weight (BMI 18.5 – 22.9). The average Vitamin A intake of the sample was 257.95 µg/day while the RDA for the selected age group was 700 µg/day. The mean energy intake of the adolescents was 1153.64 kcal/ day, whereas the Estimated Energy Requirement (EER) for this age group was 2368 kcal/day. The mean serum Vitamin A level was 24.81µg/dL. 69.6% of the sample was deficient in serum Vitamin A i.e. serum retinol < 24 µg/dL. 30.4% had serum retinol in normal limit (24 – 84 µg/dL) from which 25.3% lied in lower limit (24 – 44 µg/dL) and only 5.1% had serum retinol in 44 – 64 µg/dL range. A slightly negative correlation (r = - 0.21, 95% confidence interval) was found between dietary intake of Vitamin A and serum Vitamin A It was concluded that the dietary intake of major nutrients and vitamin A is not adequate in the selected group. This is also confirmed by the lower serum retinol levels. Hence, vitamin An intake and status are generally inadequate, and vitamin deficiency is prevalent in the unmarried young females of Lahore.

Keywords: vitamin A, young Females, vitamin deficiency, Lahore

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
5080 Investigating the Acquisition of English Emotion Terms by Moroccan EFL Learners

Authors: Khalid El Asri

Abstract:

Culture influences lexicalization of salient concepts in a society. Hence, languages often have different degrees of equivalence regarding lexical items of different fields. The present study focuses on the field of emotions in English and Moroccan Arabic. Findings of a comparative study that involved fifty English emotions revealed that Moroccan Arabic has equivalence of some English emotion terms, partial equivalence of some emotion terms, and no equivalence for some other terms. It is hypothesized then that emotion terms that have near equivalence in Moroccan Arabic will be easier to acquire for EFL learners, while partially equivalent terms will be difficult to acquire, and those that have no equivalence will be even more difficult to acquire. In order to test these hypotheses, the participants (104 advanced Moroccan EFL learners and 104 native speakers of English) were given two tests: the first is a receptive one in which the participants were asked to choose, among four emotion terms, the term that is appropriate to fill in the blanks for a given situation indicating certain kind of feelings. The second test is a productive one in which the participants were asked to give the emotion term that best described the feelings of the people in the situations given. The results showed that conceptually equivalent terms do not pose any problems for Moroccan EFL learners since they can link the concept to an already existing linguistic category; whereas the results concerning the acquisition of partially equivalent terms indicated that this type of emotion terms were difficult for Moroccan EFL learners to acquire, because they need to restructure the boundaries of the target linguistic categories by expanding them when the term includes other range of meanings that are not subsumed in the L1 term. Surprisingly however, the results concerning the case of non-equivalence revealed that Moroccan EFL learners could internalize the target L2 concepts that have no equivalence in their L1. Thus, it is the category of emotion terms that have partial equivalence in the learners’ L1 that pose problems for them.

Keywords: acquisition, culture, emotion terms, lexical equivalence

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5079 Synthesis and Biological Evaluation of Some Benzoxazole Derivatives as Inhibitors of Acetylcholinesterase / Butyrylcholinesterase and Tyrosinase

Authors: Ozlem Temiz-Arpaci, Meryem Tasci, Fatma Sezer Senol, İlkay Erdogan Orhan

Abstract:

Alzheimer’s disease (AD), a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by a progressive deterioration of memory and cognition, occurs more frequently in elderly people. Current treatment approaches in this disease with the major therapeutic strategy are based on the AChE and BChE inhibition. On the other hand, tyrosinase inhibition has become a target for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease (PD) since this enzyme may play a role in neuromelanin formation in the human brain and could be critical in the formation of dopamine neurotoxicity associated with neurodegeneration linked to PD. Also benzoxazoles are structural isosteres of natural nucleotides that can interact with biopolymers so that benzoxazoles showed a lot of different biological activities. In this study, a series of 2,5-disubstituted-benzoxazole derivatives were synthesized and were evaluated as possible inhibitors of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) / butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) and tyrosinase. The results demonstrated that the compounds exhibited a weak spectrum of AChE / BChE inhibitory activity ranging between 3.92% - 54.32% except compound 8 which showed no activity against AChE and compound 4 which showed no activity against BChE at the specified molar concentrations. Also, the compounds indicated lower than tyrosinase inhibitory activity of ranging between 8.14% - 22.90% to that of reference (kojic acid).

Keywords: AChE and BChE inhibition, Alzheimer’s disease, benzoxazoles, tyrosinase inhibition

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5078 Stationary Methanol Steam Reforming to Hydrogen Fuel for Fuel-Cell Filling Stations

Authors: Athanasios A. Tountas, Geoffrey A. Ozin, Mohini M. Sain

Abstract:

Renewable hydrogen (H₂) carriers such as methanol (MeOH), dimethyl ether (DME), oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OMEs), and conceivably ammonia (NH₃) can be reformed back into H₂ and are fundamental chemical conversions for the long-term viability of the H₂ economy due to their higher densities and ease of transportability compared to H₂. MeOH is an especially important carrier as it is a simple C1 chemical that can be produced from green solar-PV-generated H₂ and direct-air-captured CO₂ with a current commercially practical solar-to-fuel efficiency of 10% from renewable solar energy. MeOH steam reforming (MSR) in stationary systems next to H₂ fuel-cell filling stations can eliminate the need for onboard mobile reformers, and the former systems can be more robust in terms of attaining strict H₂ product specifications, and MeOH is a safe, lossless, and compact medium for long-term H₂ storage. Both thermal- and photo-catalysts are viable options for achieving the stable, long-term performance of stationary MSR systems.

Keywords: fuel-cell vehicle filling stations, methanol steam reforming, hydrogen transport and storage, stationary reformer, liquid hydrogen carriers

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5077 The Use of Boosted Multivariate Trees in Medical Decision-Making for Repeated Measurements

Authors: Ebru Turgal, Beyza Doganay Erdogan

Abstract:

Machine learning aims to model the relationship between the response and features. Medical decision-making researchers would like to make decisions about patients’ course and treatment, by examining the repeated measurements over time. Boosting approach is now being used in machine learning area for these aims as an influential tool. The aim of this study is to show the usage of multivariate tree boosting in this field. The main reason for utilizing this approach in the field of decision-making is the ease solutions of complex relationships. To show how multivariate tree boosting method can be used to identify important features and feature-time interaction, we used the data, which was collected retrospectively from Ankara University Chest Diseases Department records. Dataset includes repeated PF ratio measurements. The follow-up time is planned for 120 hours. A set of different models is tested. In conclusion, main idea of classification with weighed combination of classifiers is a reliable method which was shown with simulations several times. Furthermore, time varying variables will be taken into consideration within this concept and it could be possible to make accurate decisions about regression and survival problems.

Keywords: boosted multivariate trees, longitudinal data, multivariate regression tree, panel data

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5076 Validating Condition-Based Maintenance Algorithms through Simulation

Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

Abstract:

Industrial end-users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both machine learning and first principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed by breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems, and humans -including asset maintenance operations- in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning

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5075 Numerical Investigation on Optimizing Fatigue Life in a Lap Joint Structure

Authors: P. Zamani, S. Mohajerzadeh, R. Masoudinejad, K. Farhangdoost

Abstract:

The riveting process is one of the important ways to keep fastening the lap joints in aircraft structures. Failure of aircraft lap joints directly depends on the stress field in the joint. An important application of riveting process is in the construction of aircraft fuselage structures. In this paper, a 3D finite element method is carried out in order to optimize residual stress field in a riveted lap joint and also to estimate its fatigue life. In continue, a number of experiments are designed and analyzed using design of experiments (DOE). Then, Taguchi method is used to select an optimized case between different levels of each factor. Besides that, the factor which affects the most on residual stress field is investigated. Such optimized case provides the maximum residual stress field. Fatigue life of the optimized joint is estimated by Paris-Erdogan law. Stress intensity factors (SIFs) are calculated using both finite element analysis and experimental formula. In addition, the effect of residual stress field, geometry, and secondary bending are considered in SIF calculation. A good agreement is found between results of such methods. Comparison between optimized fatigue life and fatigue life of other joints has shown an improvement in the joint’s life.

Keywords: fatigue life, residual stress, riveting process, stress intensity factor, Taguchi method

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5074 A Study on Accident Result Contribution of Individual Major Variables Using Multi-Body System of Accident Reconstruction Program

Authors: Donghun Jeong, Somyoung Shin, Yeoil Yun

Abstract:

A large-scale traffic accident refers to an accident in which more than three people die or more than thirty people are dead or injured. In order to prevent a large-scale traffic accident from causing a big loss of lives or establish effective improvement measures, it is important to analyze accident situations in-depth and understand the effects of major accident variables on an accident. This study aims to analyze the contribution of individual accident variables to accident results, based on the accurate reconstruction of traffic accidents using PC-Crash’s Multi-Body, which is an accident reconstruction program, and simulation of each scenario. Multi-Body system of PC-Crash accident reconstruction program is used for multi-body accident reconstruction that shows motions in diverse directions that were not approached previously. MB System is to design and reproduce a form of body, which shows realistic motions, using several bodies. Targeting the 'freight truck cargo drop accident around the Changwon Tunnel' that happened in November 2017, this study conducted a simulation of the freight truck cargo drop accident and analyzed the contribution of individual accident majors. Then on the basis of the driving speed, cargo load, and stacking method, six scenarios were devised. The simulation analysis result displayed that the freight car was driven at a speed of 118km/h(speed limit: 70km/h) right before the accident, carried 196 oil containers with a weight of 7,880kg (maximum load: 4,600kg) and was not fully equipped with anchoring equipment that could prevent a drop of cargo. The vehicle speed, cargo load, and cargo anchoring equipment were major accident variables, and the accident contribution analysis results of individual variables are as follows. When the freight car only obeyed the speed limit, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 15%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 39%. When the freight car only obeyed the cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 5%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 34%. When the freight car obeyed both the speed limit and cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers fell by 38%, and the number of dropped oil containers fell by 64%. The analysis result of each scenario revealed that the overspeed and excessive cargo load of the freight car contributed to the dispersion of accident damage; in the case of a truck, which did not allow a fall of cargo, there was a different type of accident when driven too fast and carrying excessive cargo load, and when the freight car obeyed the speed limit and cargo load, there was the lowest possibility of causing an accident.

Keywords: accident reconstruction, large-scale traffic accident, PC-Crash, MB system

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5073 The Term of Intellectual Property and Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Yusuf Turan

Abstract:

Definition of Intellectual Property Rights according to the World Intellectual Property Organization: " Intellectual property (IP) refers to creations of the mind, such as inventions; literary and artistic works; designs; and symbols, names and images used in commerce." It states as follows. There are 2 important points in the definition; we can say that it is the result of intellectual activities that occur by one or more than one PERSON and as INNOVATION. When the history and development of the relevant definitions are briefly examined, it is realized that these two points have remained constant and Intellectual Property law and rights have been shaped around these two points. With the expansion of the scope of the term Intellectual Property as a result of the development of technology, especially in the field of artificial intelligence, questions such as "Can "Artificial Intelligence" be an inventor?" need to be resolved within the expanding scope. In the past years, it was ruled that the artificial intelligence named DABUS seen in the USA did not meet the definition of "individual" and therefore would be an inventor/inventor. With the developing technology, it is obvious that we will encounter such situations much more frequently in the field of intellectual property. While expanding the scope, we should definitely determine the boundaries of how we should decide who performs the mental activity or creativity that we call indispensable on the inventor/inventor according to these problems. As a result of all these problems and innovative situations, it is clearly realized that not only Intellectual Property Law and Rights but also their definitions need to be updated and improved. Ignoring the situations that are outside the scope of the current Intellectual Property Term is not enough to solve the problem and brings uncertainty. The fact that laws and definitions that have been operating on the same theories for years exclude today's innovative technologies from the scope contradicts intellectual property, which is expressed as a new and innovative field. Today, as a result of the innovative creation of poetry, painting, animation, music and even theater works with artificial intelligence, it must be recognized that the definition of Intellectual Property must be revised.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, innovation, the term of intellectual property, right

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5072 Implementing the WHO Air Quality Guideline for PM2.5 Worldwide can Prevent Millions of Premature Deaths Per Year

Authors: Despina Giannadaki, Jos Lelieveld, Andrea Pozzer, John Evans

Abstract:

Outdoor air pollution by fine particles ranks among the top ten global health risk factors that can lead to premature mortality. Epidemiological cohort studies, mainly conducted in United States and Europe, have shown that the long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5μm) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Fine particulates can cause health impacts even at very low concentrations. Previously, no concentration level has been defined below which health damage can be fully prevented. The World Health Organization ambient air quality guidelines suggest an annual mean PM2.5 concentration limit of 10μg/m3. Populations in large parts of the world, especially in East and Southeast Asia, and in the Middle East, are exposed to high levels of fine particulate pollution that by far exceeds the World Health Organization guidelines. The aim of this work is to evaluate the implementation of recent air quality standards for PM2.5 in the EU, the US and other countries worldwide and estimate what measures will be needed to substantially reduce premature mortality. We investigated premature mortality attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under adults ≥ 30yrs and children < 5yrs, applying a high-resolution global atmospheric chemistry model combined with epidemiological concentration-response functions. The latter are based on the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease for 2010, assuming a ‘safe’ annual mean PM2.5 threshold of 7.3μg/m3. We estimate the global premature mortality by PM2.5 at 3.15 million/year in 2010. China is the leading country with about 1.33 million, followed by India with 575 thousand and Pakistan with 105 thousand. For the European Union (EU) we estimate 173 thousand and the United States (US) 52 thousand in 2010. Based on sensitivity calculations we tested the gains from PM2.5 control by applying the air quality guidelines (AQG) and standards of the World Health Organization (WHO), the EU, the US and other countries. To estimate potential reductions in mortality rates we take into consideration the deaths that cannot be avoided after the implementation of PM2.5 upper limits, due to the contribution of natural sources to total PM2.5 and therefore to mortality (mainly airborne desert dust). The annual mean EU limit of 25μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 18%, while within the EU the effect is negligible, indicating that the standard is largely met and that stricter limits are needed. The new US standard of 12μg/m3 would reduce premature mortality by 46% worldwide, 4% in the US and 20% in the EU. Implementing the AQG by the WHO of 10μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 54%, 76% in China and 59% in India. In the EU and US, the mortality would be reduced by 36% and 14%, respectively. Hence, following the WHO guideline will prevent 1.7 million premature deaths per year. Sensitivity calculations indicate that even small changes at the lower PM2.5 standards can have major impacts on global mortality rates.

Keywords: air quality guidelines, outdoor air pollution, particulate matter, premature mortality

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5071 Study of Radiological and Chemical Effects of Uranium in Ground Water of SW and NE Punjab, India

Authors: Komal Saini, S. K. Sahoo, B. S. Bajwa

Abstract:

The Laser Fluorimetery Technique has been used for the microanalysis of uranium content in water samples collected from different sources like the hand pumps, tube wells in the drinking water samples of SW & NE Punjab, India. The geographic location of the study region in NE Punjab is between latitude 31.21º- 32.05º N and longitude 75.60º-76.14º E and for SW Punjab is between latitude 29.66º-30.48º N and longitude 74.69º-75.54º E. The purpose of this study was mainly to investigate the uranium concentration levels of ground water being used for drinking purposes and to determine its health effects, if any, to the local population of these regions. In the present study 131 samples of drinking water collected from different villages of SW and 95 samples from NE, Punjab state, India have been analyzed for chemical and radiological toxicity. In the present investigation, uranium content in water samples of SW Punjab ranges from 0.13 to 908 μgL−1 with an average of 82.1 μgL−1 whereas in samples collected from NE- Punjab, it ranges from 0 to 28.2 μgL−1 with an average of 4.84 μgL−1. Thus, revealing that in the SW- Punjab 54 % of drinking water samples have uranium concentration higher than international recommended limit of 30 µgl-1 (WHO, 2011) while 35 % of samples exceeds the threshold of 60 µgl-1 recommended by our national regulatory authority of Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), Department of Atomic Energy, India, 2004. On the other hand in the NE-Punjab region, none of the observed water sample has uranium content above the national/international recommendations. The observed radiological risk in terms of excess cancer risk ranges from 3.64x10-7 to 2.54x10-3 for SW-Punjab, whereas for NE region it ranges from 0 to 7.89x10-5. The chemical toxic effect in terms of Life-time average Daily Dose (LDD) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) have also been calculated. The LDD for SW-Punjab varies from 0.0098 to 68.46 with an average of 6.18 µg/ kg/day whereas for NE region it varies from 0 to 2.13 with average 0.365 µg/ kg/day, thus indicating presence of chemical toxicity in SW Punjab as 35% of the observed samples in the SW Punjab are above the recommendation limit of 4.53 µg/ kg/day given by AERB for 60 µgl-1 of uranium. Maximum & Minimum values for hazard quotient for SW Punjab is 0.002 & 15.11 with average 1.36 which is considerably high as compared to safe limit i.e. 1. But for NE Punjab HQ varies from 0 to 0.47. The possible sources of high uranium observed in the SW- Punjab will also be discussed.

Keywords: uranium, groundwater, radiological and chemical toxicity, Punjab, India

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5070 Studying the Impact of Agricultural Producers Support Policy in Export Market

Authors: Yazdani Saeed, Rafiei Hamed, Nekoofar Farahnaz

Abstract:

Governments Policies play a major role in national and international Markets. Pistachio is one of the most important non-oil export commodity of Iran. Therefore, in this study the relation between the producer support policies and the export of Pistachio was examined. An econometric model (VAR) was applied to test the study hypothesis. According to the estimated coefficient in VAR model, lag of producer support index has a significant and negative effect on variation of Pistachio’s export in short term. In other word, in short term, export advantage index is dependent on the amount of producers support in previous period.

Keywords: producer support, export advantage, pistachio, Iran

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5069 Development and Validation of a Liquid Chromatographic Method for the Quantification of Related Substance in Gentamicin Drug Substances

Authors: Sofiqul Islam, V. Murugan, Prema Kumari, Hari

Abstract:

Gentamicin is a broad spectrum water-soluble aminoglycoside antibiotics produced by the fermentation process of microorganism known as Micromonospora purpurea. It is widely used for the treatment of infection caused by both gram positive and gram negative bacteria. Gentamicin consists of a mixture of aminoglycoside components like C1, C1a, C2a, and C2. The molecular structure of Gentamicin and its related substances showed that it has lack of presence of chromophore group in the molecule due to which the detection of such components were quite critical and challenging. In this study, a simple Reversed Phase-High Performance Liquid Chromatographic (RP-HPLC) method using ultraviolet (UV) detector was developed and validated for quantification of the related substances present in Gentamicin drug substances. The method was achieved by using Thermo Scientific Hypersil Gold analytical column (150 x 4.6 mm, 5 µm particle size) with isocratic elution composed of methanol: water: glacial acetic acid: sodium hexane sulfonate in the ratio 70:25:5:3 % v/v/v/w as a mobile phase at a flow rate of 0.5 mL/min, column temperature was maintained at 30 °C and detection wavelength of 330 nm. The four components of Gentamicin namely Gentamicin C1, C1a, C2a, and C2 were well separated along with the related substance present in Gentamicin. The Limit of Quantification (LOQ) values were found to be at 0.0075 mg/mL. The accuracy of the method was quite satisfactory in which the % recovery was resulted between 95-105% for the related substances. The correlation coefficient (≥ 0.995) shows the linearity response against concentration over the range of Limit of Quantification (LOQ). Precision studies showed the % Relative Standard Deviation (RSD) values less than 5% for its related substance. The method was validated in accordance with the International Conference of Harmonization (ICH) guideline with various parameters like system suitability, specificity, precision, linearity, accuracy, limit of quantification, and robustness. This proposed method was easy and suitable for use for the quantification of related substances in routine analysis of Gentamicin formulations.

Keywords: reversed phase-high performance liquid chromatographic (RP-HPLC), high performance liquid chromatography, gentamicin, isocratic, ultraviolet

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5068 Effects of Long Term Whole Body Vibration Training on Lipid Profile of Young Men

Authors: Farshad Ghazalian, Laleh Hakemi, Lotfali Pourkazemi, Maryam Ameri, Seyed Hossein Alavi

Abstract:

Background: The use of whole body vibration (WBV) as an exercise method has rapidly increased over the last decade. The aim of this study was to evaluate long term effects of different amplitudes of whole body vibration training with progressive frequencies on lipid profile of young healthy men. Materials and methods: Thirty three healthy male students were divided randomly in three groups: high amplitude vibration group (n=11), low amplitude vibration group (n=11), and control group (n=11). The vibration training consisted of 5 week whole-body vibration 3 times a week with amplitudes 4 and 2 mm and progressive frequencies from 25 Hz with increments of 5 Hz weekly. Concentrations TG, HDL, LDL, cholesterol, and VLDL before and after 5 weeks of training were measured in plasma samples. Statistical analysis was done using one way analysis of variance. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The most important result of the present study is finding no favorable changes of 5-week vibration training with different amplitudes on blood lipid profiles. Discussion and conclusions: It was emphasized that in vibration training there should be a relationship between intensity and volume of exercise and lipid responses in order to improve blood lipoprotein profiles.

Keywords: long term, body, vibration training, lipid

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5067 The Two-Lane Rural Analysis and Comparison of Police Statistics and Results with the Help IHSDM

Authors: S. Amanpour, F. Mohamadian, S. A. Tabatabai

Abstract:

With the number of accidents and fatalities in recent years can be concluded that Iran is the status of road accidents, remains in a crisis. Investigate the causes of such incidents in all countries is a necessity. By doing this research, the results of the number and type of accidents and the location of the crash will be available. It is possible to prioritize economic and rational solutions to fix the flaws in the way of short-term the results are all the more strict rules about the desire to have black spots and cursory glance at the change of but results in long-term are desired to change the system or increase the width of the path or add extra track. In general, the relationship between the analysis of the accidents and near police statistics is the number of accidents in one year. This could prove the accuracy of the analysis done.

Keywords: traffic, IHSDM, crash, modeling, Khuzestan

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5066 Military Leadership: Emotion Culture and Emotion Coping in Morally Stressful Situations

Authors: Sofia Nilsson, Alicia Ohlsson, Linda-Marie Lundqvist, Aida Alvinius, Peder Hyllengren, Gerry Larsson

Abstract:

In irregular warfare contexts, military personnel are often presented with morally ambiguous situations where they are aware of the morally correct choice but may feel prevented to follow through with it due to organizational demands. Moral stress and/or injury can be the outcome of the individual’s experienced dissonance. These types of challenges put a large demand on the individual to manage their own emotions and the emotions of others, particularly in the case of a leader. Both the ability and inability for emotional regulation can result in different combinations of short and long term reactions after morally stressful events, which can be either positive or negative. Our study analyzed the combination of these reactions based upon the types of morally challenging events that were described by the subjects. 1)What institutionalized norms concerning emotion regulation are favorable in short-and long-term perspectives after a morally stressful event? 2)What individual emotion-focused coping strategies are favorable in short-and long-perspectives after a morally stressful? To address these questions, we conducted a quantitative study in military contexts in Sweden and Norway on upcoming or current military officers (n=331). We tested a theoretical model built upon a recently developed qualitative study. The data was analyzed using factor analysis, multiple regression analysis and subgroup analyses. The results indicated that an individual’s restriction of emotion in order to achieve an organizational goal, which results in emotional dissonance, can be an effective short term strategy for both the individual and the organization; however, it appears to be unfavorable in a long-term perspective which can result in negative reactions. Our results are intriguing because they showed an increased percentage of reported negative long term reactions (13%), which indicated PTSD-related symptoms in comparison to previous Swedish studies which indicated lower PTSD symptomology.

Keywords: emotion culture, emotion coping, emotion management, military

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5065 Safe Limits Concentration of Ammonia at Work Environments through CD8 Expression in Rats

Authors: Abdul Rohim Tualeka, Erick Caravan K. Betekeneng, Ramdhoni Zuhro, Reko Triyono, M. Sahri

Abstract:

It has been widely reported incidence caused by acute and chronic effects of exposure to ammonia in the working environment in Indonesia, but ammonia concentration was found to be below the threshold value. The purpose of this study was to determine the safety limit concentration of ammonia in the working environment through the expression of CD8 as a reference for determining the threshold value of ammonia in the working environment. This research was a laboratory experimental with post test only control group design using experimental animals as subjects experiment. From homogeneity test results indicated that the weight of white rats exposed and control groups had a homogeneous variant with a significant level of p (0.701) > α (0.05). Description of the average breathing rate is 0.0013 m³/h. Average weight rats based group listed exposure is 0.1405 kg. From the calculation IRS CD8, CD8 highest score in the doses contained 0.0154, with the location of the highest dose of ammonia without any effect on the lungs of rats is 0.0154 mg/kg body weight of mice. Safe Human Dose (SHD) ammonia is 0.002 mg/kg body weight workers. The conclusion of this study is the safety limit concentration of ammonia gas in the working environment of 0,025 ppm.

Keywords: ammonia, CD8, rats, safe limits concentration

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5064 Assessment of the Potential of Fuel-derived Rice Husk Ash as Pozzolanic Material

Authors: Jesha Faye T. Librea, Leslie Joy L. Diaz

Abstract:

Fuel-derived rice husk ash (fRHA) is a waste material from industries employing rice husk as a biomass fuel which, on the downside, causes disposal and environmental problems. To mitigate this, the fRHA was evaluated for use in other applications such as a pozzolanic material for the construction industry. In this study, the assessment of the potential of fRHA as pozzolanic supplementary cementitious material was conducted by determining the chemical and physical properties of fRHA according to ASTM C618, evaluating the fineness of the material according to ASTM C430, and determining its pozzolanic activity using Luxan Method. The material was found to have a high amorphous silica content of around 95.82 % with traces of alkaline and carbon impurities. The retained carbon residue is 7.18 %, which is within the limit of the specifications for natural pozzolans indicated in ASTM C618. The fineness of the fRHA is at 88.88 % retained at a 45-micron sieve, which, however, exceeded the limit of 34 %. This large particle size distribution was found to affect the pozzolanic activity of the fRHA. This was shown in the Luxan test, where the fRHA was identified as non-pozzolan due to its low pozzolanic activity index of 0.262. Thus, further processing must be done to the fRHA to pass the required ASTM fineness, have a higher pozzolanic activity index, and fully qualify as a pozzolanic material.

Keywords: rice husk ash, pozzolanic, fuel-derived ash, supplementary cementitious material

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5063 Design and Implementation of Machine Learning Model for Short-Term Energy Forecasting in Smart Home Management System

Authors: R. Ramesh, K. K. Shivaraman

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to handle the energy requirement in an efficient manner by merging the advanced digital communication and control technologies for smart grid applications. In order to reduce user home load during peak load hours, utility applies several incentives such as real-time pricing, time of use, demand response for residential customer through smart meter. However, this method provides inconvenience in the sense that user needs to respond manually to prices that vary in real time. To overcome these inconvenience, this paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN) with k-means clustering machine learning model which have ability to forecast energy requirement in short term, i.e., hour of the day or day of the week. By integrating our proposed technique with home energy management based on Bluetooth low energy provides predicted value to user for scheduling appliance in advanced. This paper describes detail about CNN configuration and k-means clustering algorithm for short-term energy forecasting.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, fuzzy logic, k-means clustering approach, smart home energy management

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5062 Numerical Modeling to Validate Theoretical Models of Toppling Failure in Rock Slopes

Authors: Hooman Dabirmanesh, Attila M. Zsaki

Abstract:

Traditionally, rock slope stability is carried out using limit equilibrium analysis when investigating toppling failure. In these equilibrium methods, internal forces exerted between columns are not clearly defined, and to the authors’ best knowledge, there is no consensus in literature with respect to the results of analysis. A discrete element method-based numerical model was developed and applied to simulate the behavior of rock layers subjected to toppling failure. Based on this calibrated numerical model, a study of the location and distribution of internal forces that result in equilibrium was carried out. The sum of side forces was applied at a point on a block which properly represents the force to determine the inter-column force distribution. In terms of the side force distribution coefficient, the result was compared to those obtained from laboratory centrifuge tests. The results of the simulation show the suitable criteria to select the correct position for the internal exerted force between rock layers. In addition, the numerical method demonstrates how a theoretical method could be reliable by considering the interaction between the rock layers.

Keywords: contact bond, discrete element, force distribution, limit equilibrium, tensile stress

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5061 The Comparison and Optimization of the Analytic Method for Canthaxanthin, Food Colorants

Authors: Hee-Jae Suh, Kyung-Su Kim, Min-Ji Kim, Yeon-Seong Jeong, Ok-Hwan Lee, Jae-Wook Shin, Hyang-Sook Chun, Chan Lee

Abstract:

Canthaxanthin is keto-carotenoid produced from beta-carotene and it has been approved to be used in many countries as a food coloring agent. Canthaxanthin has been analyzed using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) system with various ways of pretreatment methods. Four official methods for verification of canthaxanthin at FSA (UK), AOAC (US), EFSA (EU) and MHLW (Japan) were compared to improve its analytical and the pretreatment method. The Linearity, the limit of detection (LOD), the limit of quantification (LOQ), the accuracy, the precision and the recovery ratio were determined from each method with modification in pretreatment method. All HPLC methods exhibited correlation coefficients of calibration curves for canthaxanthin as 0.9999. The analysis methods from FSA, AOAC, and MLHW showed the LOD of 0.395 ppm, 0.105 ppm, and 0.084 ppm, and the LOQ of 1.196 ppm, 0.318 ppm, 0.254 ppm, respectively. Among tested methods, HPLC method of MHLW with modification in pretreatments was finally selected for the analysis of canthaxanthin in lab, because it exhibited the resolution factor of 4.0 and the selectivity of 1.30. This analysis method showed a correlation coefficients value of 0.9999 and the lowest LOD and LOQ. Furthermore, the precision ratio was lower than 1 and the accuracy was almost 100%. The method presented the recovery ratio of 90-110% with modification in pretreatment method. The cross-validation of coefficient variation was 5 or less among tested three institutions in Korea.

Keywords: analytic method, canthaxanthin, food colorants, pretreatment method

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5060 Implementation-Oriented Discussion for Historical and Cultural Villages’ Conservation Planning

Authors: Xing Zhang

Abstract:

Since the State Council of China issued the Regulations on the Conservation of Historical Cultural Towns and Villages in 2008, formulation of conservation planning has been carried out in national, provincial and municipal historical and cultural villages for protection needs, which provides a legal basis for inheritance of historical culture and protection of historical resources. Although the quantity and content of the conservation planning are continually increasing, the implementation and application are still ambiguous. To solve the aforementioned problems, this paper explores methods to enhance the implementation of conservation planning from the perspective of planning formulation. Specifically, the technical framework of "overall objectives planning - sub-objectives planning - zoning guidelines - implementation by stages" is proposed to implement the planning objectives in different classifications and stages. Then combined with details of the Qiqiao historical and cultural village conservation planning project in Ningbo, five sub-objectives are set, which are implemented through the village zoning guidelines. At the same time, the key points and specific projects in the near-term, medium-term and long-term work are clarified, and the spatial planning is transformed into the action plan with time scale. The proposed framework and method provide a reference for the implementation and management of the conservation planning of historical and cultural villages in the future.

Keywords: conservation planning, planning by stages, planning implementation, zoning guidelines

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5059 Self-Reliance Support and Environment Interaction in Long-Term Care

Authors: Chen-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

Introduction Elderly is growing and results to live in the long-term care (LTC) and then due to the routine of the facilities in Taiwan, also resulted to losing of those people with environment interaction, so, the self-reliance support (SRS) for those people to experience environment interaction is an essential. Methods This study was recruited samples of a LTC in the central of Taiwan. There was a following research on the SRS group with 20 samples collected and routine care group with 20 samples. A structured questionnaire as the Environment Interaction Dimension, as data collection included demographic information and the dimensions of environment interaction. Data analysis used SPSS 22.0 for Window 2000 to report the finding. Results The Environment Interaction Dimension for Taiwanese is a Chinese version of the containing 8 items. The result of t-test analysis found that environment interaction showed a significant difference between groups (p<.05), the result recommended that there was a higher score of environment interaction dimension on the SRS group (29.90±5.56) comparing with the routine care group (22.1±5.53). Conclusion This study showed that the SRS group was higher than the routine care group on the environment interaction dimension for Taiwanese elderly living in the LTC. The results can also provide the reference for LTC, to encourage those people to participate in SRS in LTC, and therefore also improving their environment interaction.

Keywords: self-reliance support, environment interaction, long-term care, elderly

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5058 Estimation of Probabilistic Fatigue Crack Propagation Models of AZ31 Magnesium Alloys under Various Load Ratio Conditions by Using the Interpolation of a Random Variable

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The essential purpose is to present the good fatigue crack propagation model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior in a rolled magnesium alloy, AZ31, under various load ratio conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments were carried out in laboratory air under four conditions of load ratio, R, using AZ31 to investigate the crack growth behavior. The stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior was analyzed using an interpolation of random variable, Z, introduced to an empirical fatigue crack propagation model. The empirical fatigue models used in this study are Paris-Erdogan model, Walker model, Forman model, and modified Forman model. It was found that the random variable is useful in describing the stochastic fatigue crack growth behaviors under various load ratio conditions. The good probabilistic model describing a stochastic fatigue crack growth behavior under various load ratio conditions was also proposed.

Keywords: magnesium alloys, fatigue crack propagation model, load ratio, interpolation of random variable

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5057 Price Prediction Line, Investment Signals and Limit Conditions Applied for the German Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, high-frequency trading, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex

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5056 Long Term Examination of the Profitability Estimation Focused on Benefits

Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

Abstract:

Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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5055 Deconstruction of the Term 'Shaman' in the Metaphorical Pair 'Artist as a Shaman'

Authors: Ilona Ivova Anachkova

Abstract:

The analogy between the artist and the shaman as both being practitioners that more easily recognize and explore spiritual matters, and thus contribute to the society in a unique way has been implied in both Modernity and Postmodernity. The Romantic conception of the shaman as a great artist who helps common men see and understand messages of a higher consciousness has been employed throughout Modernity and is active even now. This paper deconstructs the term ‘shaman’ in the metaphorical analogy ‘artist – shaman’ that was developed more fully in Modernity in different artistic and scientific discourses. The shaman is a figure that to a certain extent adequately reflects the late modern and postmodern holistic views on the world. Such views aim at distancing from traditional religious and overly rationalistic discourses. However, the term ‘shaman’ can be well substituted by other concepts such as the priest, for example. The concept ‘shaman’ is based on modern ethnographic and historical investigations. Its later philosophical, psychological and artistic appropriations designate the role of the artist as a spiritual and cultural leader. However, the artist and the shaman are not fully interchangeable terms. The figure of the shaman in ‘primitive’ societies has performed many social functions that are now delegated to different institutions and positions. The shaman incorporates the functions of a judge, a healer. He is a link to divine entities. He is the creative, aspiring human being that has heightened sensitivity to the world in both its spiritual and material aspects. Building the metaphorical analogy between the shaman and the artist comes in many ways. Both are seen as healers of the society, having propensity towards connection to spiritual entities, or being more inclined to creativity than others. The ‘shaman’ however is a fashionable word for a spiritual person used perhaps because of the anti-traditionalist religious modern and postmodern views. The figure of the priest is associated with a too rational, theoretical and detached attitude towards spiritual matters, while the practices of the shaman and the artist are considered engaged with spirituality on a deeper existential level. The term ‘shaman’ however does not have priority of other words/figures that can explore and deploy spiritual aspects of reality. Having substituted the term ‘shaman’ in the pair ‘artist as a shaman’ with ‘the priest’ or literally ‘anybody,' we witness destruction of spiritual hierarchies and come to the view that everybody is responsible for their own spiritual and creative evolution.

Keywords: artist as a shaman, creativity, extended theory of art, functions of art, priest as an artist

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5054 How Group Education Impacts Female Factory Workers’ Behavior and Readiness to Receive Mammography and Pap Smears

Authors: Memnun Seven, Mine Bahar, Aygül Akyüz, Hatice Erdoğan

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Background: The workplace has been deemed a suitable location for educating many women at once about cancer screening. Objective: To determine how group education about early diagnostic methods for breast and cervical cancer affects women’s behavior and readiness to receive mammography and Pap smears. Methods: This semi-interventional study was conducted at a textile factory in Istanbul, Turkey. Female workers (n = 125) were included in the study. A participant identification form and knowledge evaluation form developed for this study, along with the trans-theoretical model, were used to collect data. A 45-min interactive group education was given to the participants. Results: Upon contacting participants 3 months after group education, 15.4% (n = 11) stated that they had since received a mammogram and 9.8% (n = 7) a Pap smear. As suggested by the trans-theoretical model, group education increased participants’ readiness to receive cancer screening, along with their knowledge of breast and cervical cancer. Conclusions: Group education positively impacted women’s knowledge of cancer and their readiness to receive mammography and Pap smears. Group education can therefore potentially create awareness of cancer screening tests among women and improve their readiness to receive such tests.

Keywords: cancer screening, educational intervention, participation, women

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5053 Mixed-Methods Analyses of Subjective Strategies of Most Unlikely but Successful Transitions from Social Benefits to Work

Authors: Hirseland Andreas, Kerschbaumer Lukas

Abstract:

In the case of Germany, there are about one million long-term unemployed – a figure that did not vary much during the past years. These long-term unemployed did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short-term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long-term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to become employed again, especially if it is accompanied by other impediments such as low-level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. As can be shown by this current research project, in these cases the chance to regain employment decreases to near nil. Almost two-thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Prospective employers are unlikely to hire long-term unemployed with additional impediments because they evaluate potential employees on their negative signaling (e.g. low-level education) and the implicit assumption of unproductiveness (e.g. poor health, age). Some findings of the panel survey “Labor market and social security” (PASS) carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency) spread a ray of hope, showing that unlikely does not necessarily mean impossible. The presentation reports on current research on these very scarce “success stories” of unlikely transitions from long-term unemployment to work and how these cases were able to perform this switch against all odds. The study is based on a mixed-method design. Within the panel survey (~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions were observed. These cases have been explored by qualitative inquiry – in depth-interviews and qualitative network techniques. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by certain biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting the labor market and their impact on welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small-scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation (e.g. organizing small-scale-structures and low-threshold services to encounter possible employers on a more informal basis like “meet and greet”).

Keywords: against-all-odds, mixed-methods, Welfare State, long-term unemployment

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