Search results for: Bayesian learning

Authors: Muneer Abbad

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In search of better, traditional learning universities have expanded their ways to deliver knowledge and integrate cost effective e-learning systems. Universities’ use of information and communication technologies has grown tremendously over the last decade. To ensure efficient use of the e-learning system, this project aimed to evaluate the good and bad practices, detect errors and determine areas for further improvements in usage. This project critically evaluated the students’ perception of the e-learning system and recommended changes to improve students’ e-learning usage, through conducting questionnaire given to the students that have experience with e-learning systems. Results of the study indicated that, in general, students have favourable perceptions toward using the e-learning system. They seemed to value the resources tool and its contribution to building their knowledge more than other e-learning tools. However, they seemed to perceive a limited value from the audio or video podcasts. This study has shown that technology acceptance is the most variable, factor that contributes to students’ perception and satisfaction of the e-learning system.

Keywords: e-learning, perception, Jordan, universities

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Authors: Nur Sofi Hidayah, Ratih Tri Purwatiningsih

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Learning is a process attempts person to obtain a new behavior changes as a whole, as a result of his own experience in the interaction with the environment. Learning involves our brain to think, while the ability of the brain to each student's performance is different. To obtain optimal learning results then need time to learn the exact hour that the brain's performance is not too heavy. Referring to the learning system in Finland which apply 45 minutes to learn and a 15-minute break is expected to be the brain work better, with the rest of the brain, the brain will be more focused and lessons can be absorbed well. It can be concluded that learning in this way students learn with brain always fresh and the best possible use of the time, but it can make students not saturated in a lesson.

Keywords: learning, working hours brain, time efficient learning, working hours in the brain receive stimulus.

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Authors: Andy Wang

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Personalized learning refers to an educational approach that tailors instruction to meet the unique needs, interests, and abilities of each learner. This method of learning aims at providing students with a customized learning experience that is more engaging, interactive, and relevant to their personal lives. With generative AI technology, the author has developed a Personal Tutoring Bot (PTB) that supports personalized learning. The author is currently testing PTB in his EE 499 – Microelectronics Metrology course. Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) provide interactive and immersive learning environments that can engage student in online learning. This paper presents the rationale of integrating VR/AR tools in PTB and discusses challenges and solutions of incorporating VA/AR into the Personal Tutoring Bot (PTB).

Keywords: personalized learning, online education, hands-on practice, VR/AR tools

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Authors: Zenaide Carvalho da Silva, Leandro Rodrigues Ferreira, Andrey Ricardo Pimentel

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Learning styles (LS) refer to the ways and forms that the student prefers to learn in the teaching and learning process. Each student has their own way of receiving and processing information throughout the learning process. Therefore, knowing their LS is important to better understand their individual learning preferences, and also, understand why the use of some teaching methods and techniques give better results with some students, while others it does not. We believe that knowledge of these styles enables the possibility of making propositions for teaching; thus, reorganizing teaching methods and techniques in order to allow learning that is adapted to the individual needs of the student. Adapting learning would be possible through the creation of online educational resources adapted to the style of the student. In this context, this article presents the structure of a learning object interface adaptation based on the LS. The structure created should enable the creation of the adapted learning object according to the student's LS and contributes to the increase of student’s motivation in the use of a learning object as an educational resource.

Keywords: adaptation, interface, learning object, learning style

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Authors: Hao-Hsi Tseng, Hsin-Yun Lee, Yu-Cheng Kuo

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In order to understand whether there is a better than the learning function of learning methods and improve the CAD Courses for enterprise’s design human resource development, this research is applied in learning practical learning computer graphics software. In this study, Revit building information model for learning content, design of two different modes of learning curriculum to learning, learning functions, respectively, and project learning. Via a post-test, questionnaires and student interviews, etc., to study the effectiveness of a comparative analysis of two different modes of learning. Students participate in a period of three weeks after a total of nine-hour course, and finally written and hands-on test. In addition, fill in the questionnaire response by the student learning, a total of fifteen questionnaire title, problem type into the base operating software, application software and software-based concept features three directions. In addition to the questionnaire, and participants were invited to two different learning methods to conduct interviews to learn more about learning students the idea of two different modes. The study found that the ad hoc short-term courses in learning, better learning outcomes. On the other hand, functional style for the whole course students are more satisfied, and the ad hoc style student is difficult to accept the ad hoc style of learning.

Keywords: development, education, human resource, learning

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Authors: Nasser Al-Rawahi

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The study aims at determining self-regulated learning strategies used by Omani physical education candidates to learn sport skills. The data were collected by a self-regulated learning theory questionnaire. The sample of the study comprised of 145 undergraduate physical education students enrolled in the department of physical education at the College of Education, Sultan Qaboos University. The findings of the study revealed that the most commonly used strategies for learning sport skills by Omani physical education candidate are ‘the effort learning strategies, planning learning strategies and evaluation learning strategies’. However, the reflection learning strategies, self-monitoring and self-efficacy learning strategies were revealed as the least used strategies by the PE candidates in learning and acquiring sport skills. Based on these findings, suggestions and recommendations for future research were provided.

Keywords: learning strategies, physical education candidates, self-regulated learning theory, Oman

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Authors: Kais Ben-Ahmed, Mhamed Ali-El-Aroui

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This paper develops a Local Generalized Linear Spatial Model (LGLSM) to describe the spatial variation of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) infection risk in northern and central Tunisia. The response from each region is a number of affected children less than five years of age recorded from 1996 through 2006 from Tunisian pediatric departments and treated as a poison county level data. The model includes climatic factors, namely averages of annual rainfall, extreme values of low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer to characterize the climate of each region according to each continentality index, the pluviometric quotient of Emberger (Q2) to characterize bioclimatic regions and component for residual extra-poison variation. The statistical results show the progressive increase in the number of affected children in regions with high continentality index and low mean yearly rainfull. On the other hand, an increase in pluviometric quotient of Emberger contributed to a significant increase in VL incidence rate. When compared with the original GLSM, Bayesian locally modeling is improvement and gives a better approximation of the Tunisian VL risk estimation. According to the Bayesian approach inference, we use vague priors for all parameters model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

Keywords: generalized linear spatial model, local model, extra-poisson variation, continentality index, visceral leishmaniasis, Tunisia

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: Quang Dong Dang

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This paper examines the possible effects of stock market developments by channels on income and wealth inequality. We use the Bayesian Multilevel Model with the explanatory variables of the market’s channels, such as accessibility, efficiency, and market health in six selected countries: the US, UK, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. We found that generally, the improvements in the stock market alleviate income inequality. However, stock market expansions in higher-income countries are likely to trigger income inequality. We also found that while enhancing the quality of channels of the stock market has counter-effects on wealth equality distributions, open accessibilities help reduce wealth inequality distributions within the scope of the study. In addition, the inverted U-shaped hypothesis seems not to be valid in six selected countries between the period from 2006 to 2020.

Keywords: Bayesian multilevel model, income inequality, inverted u-shaped hypothesis, stock market development, wealth inequality

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Authors: Azli Bin Ariffin, Noor Amy Afiza Binti Mohd Yusof

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This study aims to identify effect of social network usage on the self-learning method in teaching and learning at Sultan Idris Education University. The study involved 270 respondents consisting of students in the pre-graduate and post-graduate levels from nine fields of study offered. Assessment instrument used is questionnaire which measures respondent’s background includes level of study, years of study and field of study. Also measured the extent to which social pages used for self-learning and effect received when using social network for self-learning in learning process. The results of the study showed that students always visit Facebook more than other social sites. But, it is not for the purpose of self-learning. Analyzed data showed that 45.5% students not sure about using social sites for self-learning. But they realize the positive effect that they will received when use social sites for self-learning to improve teaching and learning process when 72.7% respondent agreed with all the statements provided.

Keywords: facebook, self-learning, social network, teaching, learning

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Authors: Chloe L. Southern

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If play is deemed to fulfill children’s social, emotional, and physical domains, as well as satisfy their natural curiosity and promote self-reflexivity, it is difficult to understand why play is not prioritized to the same extent for older children. This paper explores and discusses the importance of play-based learning as well as the preliminary implications beyond the realm of kindergarten. To further extend the inquiry, discussions pertaining to play-based learning are looked at through the lens of relevant methodologies and theories. Different education systems are looked at in certain areas of the world that lead to curiosities not only towards their play-based practices and curriculum but what ideologies they have that set them apart.

Keywords: 21ˢᵗ century learning, play-based learning, student-centered learning, transformative learning

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Authors: Jonathan H. Westover, Jacque P. Westover, Maureen S. Andrade

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Though learning theories vary in complexity and usefulness, a thorough understanding of foundational learning theories is a necessity in today’s educational environment. Additionally, learning theories lead to approaches in instruction that can affect student motivation and learning. The combination of a learning theory and elements to enhance student motivation can create a learning context where the student can thrive in their educational pursuits. This paper will provide an overview of three main learning theories: (1) Behavioral Theory, (2) Cognitive Theory, and (3) Constructivist Theory and explore their connection to elements of student learning motivation. Finally, we apply these learning theories and elements of student motivation to the following two context: (1) The FastStart Program at the Community College of Denver, and (2) An Online Academic English Language Course. We discussed potential of the program and course to have success in increasing student success outcomes.

Keywords: learning theory, student motivation, inclusive pedagogy, developmental education

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Authors: Carlos Arias-Alcaide, Cristina Soguero-Ruiz, Paloma Santos-Álvarez, Adrián García-Romero, Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez

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Analysing clinical data with computers in such a way that have an impact on the practitioners’ workflow is a challenge nowadays. This paper provides a first approach for monitoring the health status of COVID-19 patients through the use of some biomarkers (blood tests) and the simplest Naïve Bayes classifier. Data of two Spanish hospitals were considered, showing the potential of our approach to estimate reasonable posterior probabilities even some days before the event.

Keywords: Bayesian model, blood biomarkers, classification, health tracing, machine learning, posterior probability

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Authors: H. van Rensburg, B. Adcock, B. Al Mansouri

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This paper discusses the impact of pedagogical and learning differences on Arabic international students’ (AIS) learning when they come to study in Australia. It describes the difference in teaching and learning methods between the students’ home countries in the Arabic world and Australia. There are many research papers that discuss the general experiences of international students in the western learning systems, including Australia. However, there is little research conducted specifically about AIS learning in Australia. Therefore, the data was collected through in-depth, semi-structured interviews with AIS who are learning at an Australian regional university in Queensland. For that reason, this paper contributes to fill a gap by reporting on the learning experiences of AIS in Australia and, more specifically, on the AIS’ pedagogical experiences. Not only discussing the learning experiences of AIS, but also discussing the cultural adaptation using the Oberg’s cultural adaptation model. This paper suggests some learning strategies that may benefit AIS and academic lecturers when teaching students from a completely different culture and language.

Keywords: arabic international students, cultural adaption, learning differences, learning systems

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Authors: M. Sarrab, M. Elbasir

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Most of mobile learning applications currently available are developed for the formal education and learning environment. Those applications are characterized by the improvement of the interaction process between instructors and learners to provide more collaboration and flexibility in the learning process. Despite the long history and large amount of research on Instruction design model and mobile learning there is no complete and well defined set of steps to follow in designing mobile learning applications. Based on this scenario, this paper focuses on identifying instruction design phases considerations and influencing factors in developing mobile learning application. This set of instruction design steps includes analysis, design, development, implementation, evaluation and continuous has been built from a literature study with focus on standards for learning and mobile application software quality and guidelines. The effort is part of an Omani-funded research project investigating the development, adoption and dissemination of mobile learning in Oman.

Keywords: instruction design, mobile learning, mobile application

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Authors: Silmy A. Humaira'

Abstract:

There is an issue about Asian students including Indonesian students that tend to behave passively in the classroom and depend on the teachers’ instruction. Regarding this statement, this study attempts to address the Indonesian high school students’ attitudes on whether they have initiative and be responsible for their learning out of the classroom and if so, why. Therefore, 30 high school students were asked to fill out the questionnaires and interviewed in order to figure out their attitudes towards self-directed learning. The descriptive qualitative research analysis adapted Knowles’s theory (1975) about Self-directed learning (SDL) to analyze the data. The findings show that the students have a potential to possess self-directed learning through ICT, but they have difficulties in choosing appropriate learning strategy, doing self-assessment and conducting self-reflection. Therefore, this study supports the teacher to promote self-directed learning instruction for successful learning by assisting students in dealing with those aforementioned problems. Furthermore, it is expected to be a beneficial reference which gives new insights on the self-directed learning practice in specific context.

Keywords: ICT, learning autonomy, students’ attitudes, self-directed learning

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Authors: Ibraheem Alzahrani

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This paper seeks to discover the relationship between both the social constructivist learning theory and the collaborative learning environment. This relationship can be identified through given an example of the learning environment. Due to wiki characteristics, wiki can be used to understand the relationship between constructivist learning theory and collaborative learning environment. However, several evidences will come in this paper to support the idea of why wiki is the suitable method to explore the relationship between social constructivist theory and the collaborative learning and their role in learning. Moreover, learning activities in wiki classroom will be discussed in this paper to find out the result of the learners' interaction in the classroom groups, which will be through two types of communication; synchronous and asynchronous.

Keywords: social constructivist, collaborative, environment, wiki, activities

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Authors: Farouk Lawan Gambo

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Data compression shrinks files into fewer bits then their original presentation. It has more advantage on internet because the smaller a file, the faster it can be transferred but learning most of the concepts in data compression are abstract in nature therefore making them difficult to digest by some students (Engineers in particular). To determine the best approach toward learning data compression technique, this paper first study the learning preference of engineering students who tend to have strong active, sensing, visual and sequential learning preferences, the paper also study the advantage that mobility of learning have experienced; Learning at the point of interest, efficiency, connection, and many more. A survey is carried out with some reasonable number of students, through random sampling to see whether considering the learning preference and advantages in mobility of learning will give a promising improvement over the traditional way of learning. Evidence from data analysis using Ms-Excel as a point of concern for error-free findings shows that there is significance different in the students after using learning content provided on smart phone, also the result of the findings presented in, bar charts and pie charts interpret that mobile learning has to be promising feature of learning.

Keywords: data analysis, compression techniques, learning content, traditional learning approach

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Authors: José Luis Gallizo, Pilar Gargallo, Ramon Saladrigues, Manuel Salvador

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This study offers an exploratory statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural and a transitory component, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This breakdown enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be more accurately evaluated by country and sector. Furthermore, Bayesian approach allows for testing different hypotheses about the homogeneity of the behaviour of the above components with respect to the sector and the country where the firm develops its activity. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the firm specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for around 81% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 34%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects depends also on sector and country analysed have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 7-8% with this degree of persistence being very similar for most of sectors and countries analysed.

Keywords: dynamic models, Bayesian inference, MCMC, abnormal returns, persistence of profits, return on assets

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Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

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Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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Authors: Migena Ceyhan, Zeynep Orhan, Dimitrios Karras

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People in modern societies are continuously sharing their experiences, emotions, and thoughts in different areas of life. The information reaches almost everyone in real-time and can have an important impact in shaping people’s way of living. This phenomenon is very well recognized and advantageously used by the market representatives, trying to earn the most from this means. Given the abundance of information, people and organizations are looking for efficient tools that filter the countless data into important information, ready to analyze. This paper is a modest contribution in this field, describing the process of automatically classifying social media comments in the Turkish language into positive or negative. Once data is gathered and preprocessed, feature sets of selected single words or groups of words are build according to the characteristics of language used in the texts. These features are used later to train, and test a system according to different machine learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Sequential Minimal Optimization, J48, and Bayesian Linear Regression). The resultant high accuracies can be important feedback for decision-makers to improve the business strategies accordingly.

Keywords: feature selection, machine learning, natural language processing, sentiment analysis, social media reviews

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Authors: Muhamamd Shahid Farooq, Maazan Zafar, Rizawana Akhtar

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E-learning technologies are the blessings of advancements in science and technology. These facilitate the learners to get information at any place and any time by improving their self-confidence, self-efficacy and effectiveness in teaching learning process. E-learning provides an individualized learning experience for learners and remove barriers faced by students during new and creative ways of gaining information. It provides a wide range of facilities to enable the teachers and students for effective and purposeful learning. This study was conducted to explore the attitudes of university students and teachers towards e-learning working in a metropolitan university of Pakistan. The personal, institutional and technological characteristics of the teachers and students of higher education institution effect the adoption of e-learning. For this descriptive study 449 students and 35 university teachers were surveyed by using a Likert scale type questionnaire consisting of 52 statements relating to six factors "perceived usefulness, intention to adopt e-learning, ease of e-learning use, availability resources, e-learning stressors, and pressure to use e-learning". Data were analyzed by making comparisons on the basis of different demographic factors. The findings of the study show that both type of respondents have positive attitude towards e-learning. However, the male and female respondents differ in their opinion for e-learning implementation.

Keywords: e-learning, ICT, e-sources of learning, questionnaire

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Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

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This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matern, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matern, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian process regression, ensemble kernels, bayesian optimization, pharmaceutical sales analysis, time series forecasting, data analysis

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Authors: O. Bourkoukou, Essaid El Bachari

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The group composing is one of the key issue in collaborative learning to achieve a positive educational experience. The goal of this work is to propose for teachers and tutors a method to create effective collaborative learning groups in e-learning environment based on the learner profile. For this purpose, a new function was defined to rate implicitly learning objects used by the learner during his learning experience. This paper describes the proposed algorithm to build an adequate collaborative learning group. In order to verify the performance of the proposed algorithm, several experiments were conducted in real data set in virtual environment. Results show the effectiveness of the method for which it appears that the proposed approach may be promising to produce better outcomes.

Keywords: building groups, collaborative learning, e-learning, learning objects

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Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Sulaiman Almutairy, Trevor Davies, Yota Dimitriadi

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This paper presents study investigating how to understand better the psychological readiness for mobile learning (m-learning) among Saudi students, while also evaluating m-learning in Saudi Arabia-a topic that has not yet received adequate attention from researchers. Data was acquired through a questionnaire administered to 131 Saudi students at UK universities, in July 2013. The study confirmed that students are confident using mobile devices in their daily lives and that they would welcome more opportunities for mobile learning. The findings indicated that Saudi higher education students are highly familiar with, and are psychologically ready for, m-learning.

Keywords: m-learning, mobile technologies, psychological readiness, higher education

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Authors: Chryssi Vitsilaki, Apostolos Kostas, Ilias Efthymiou

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This paper presents selected best practices on online learning and teaching derived from a novel and innovating Lifelong Learning program through e-Learning, which has during the last five years been set up at the University of the Aegean in Greece. The university, capitalizing on an award-winning, decade-long experience in e-learning and blended learning in undergraduate and postgraduate studies, recently expanded into continuous education and vocational training programs in various cutting-edge fields. So, in this article we present: (a) the academic structure/infrastructure which has been developed for the administrative, organizational and educational support of the e-Learning process, including training the trainers, (b) the mode of design and implementation based on a sound pedagogical framework of open and distance education, and (c) the key results of the assessment of the e-learning process by the participants, as they are used to feedback on continuous organizational and teaching improvement and quality control.

Keywords: distance education, e-learning, life-long programs, synchronous/asynchronous learning

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Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

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Authors: Zhou Hong, Gu Xiao-Qing, Lıu Hong-Jiao, Leng Jing

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Seamless learning is becoming a research hotspot in recent years, and the emerging of micro-lectures, flipped classroom has strengthened the development of seamless learning. Based on the characteristics of the seamless learning across time and space and the course structure of the flipped classroom, and the theories of language learning, we put forward the language learning model which can support ‘seamless flipped’ environment (abbreviated as ‘S-F’). Meanwhile, the characteristics of the ‘S-F’ learning environment, the corresponding framework construction and the activity design of diversified corpora were introduced. Moreover, a language learning app named ‘Daily Speaking’ was developed to facilitate the practice of the language learning model in ‘S-F’ environment. In virtue of the learning case of Shanghai language, the rationality and feasibility of this framework were examined, expecting to provide a reference for the design of ‘S-F’ learning in different situations.

Keywords: seamless learning, flipped classroom, seamless-flipped environment, language learning model

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