Search results for: 2006 inflation targeting regime
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1853

Search results for: 2006 inflation targeting regime

1583 Seismotectonic Deformations along Strike-Slip Fault Systems of the Maghreb Region, Western Mediterranean

Authors: Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed, Mojtaba Rajabi, Mustapha Meghraoui, Damien Delvaux, Ali Kadri, Moritz Ziegler, Said Maouche, Ahmed Braham, Aymen Arfaoui

Abstract:

The northern Maghreb region (Western Mediterranean) is a key area to study the seismotectonic deformations across the Africa-Eurasia convergent plate boundary. On the basis of young geologic fault slip data and stress inversion of focal mechanisms, we defined a first-order transpression-compatible stress field and a second-order spatial variation of tectonic regime across the Maghreb region, with a relatively stable SHmax orientation from east to west. Therefore, the present-day active contraction of the western Africa-Eurasia plate boundary is accommodated by (1) E-W strike-slip faulting with a reverse component along the Eastern Tell and Saharan-Tunisian Atlas, (2) a predominantly NE trending thrust faulting with strike-slip component in the Western Tell part, and (3) a conjugate strike-slip faulting regime with a normal component in the Alboran/Rif domain. This spatial variation of the active stress field and the tectonic regime is relatively in agreement with the inferred stress information from neotectonic features. According to newly suggested structural models, we highlight the role of main geometrically complex shear zones in the present-day stress pattern of the Maghreb region. Then, different geometries of these major preexisting strike-slip faults and related fractures (V-shaped conjugate fractures, horsetail splays faults, and Riedel fractures) impose their component on the second- and third-order stress regimes. Smoothed present-day and Neotectonic stress maps (mean SHmax orientation) reveal that plate boundary forces acting on the Africa-Eurasia collisional plates control the long wavelength of the stress field pattern in the Maghreb. The seismotectonic deformations and the upper crustal stress field in the study area are governed by the interplay of the oblique plate convergence (i.e., Africa-Eurasia), lithosphere-mantle interaction, and preexisting tectonic weakness zones.

Keywords: Maghreb, strike-slip fault, seismotectonic, focal mechanism, inversion

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1582 A Case Study of the Saudi Arabian Investment Regime

Authors: Atif Alenezi

Abstract:

The low global oil price poses economic challenges for Saudi Arabia, as oil revenues still make up a great percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the end of 2014, the Consultative Assembly considered a report from the Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy which highlights that the economy had not been successfully diversified. There thus exist ample reasons for modernising the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regime, primarily to achieve and maintain prosperity and facilitate peace in the region. Therefore, this paper aims at identifying specific problems with the existing FDI regime in Saudi Arabia and subsequently some solutions to those problems. Saudi Arabia adopted its first specific legislation in 1956, which imposed significant restrictions on foreign ownership. Since then, Saudi Arabia has modernised its FDI framework with the passing of the Foreign Capital Investment Act 1979 and the Foreign Investment Law2000 and the accompanying Executive Rules 2000 and the recently adopted Implementing Regulations 2014.Nonetheless, the legislative provisions contain various gaps and the failure to address these gaps creates risks and uncertainty for investors. For instance, the important topic of mergers and acquisitions has not been addressed in the Foreign Investment Law 2000. The circumstances in which expropriation can be considered to be in the public interest have not been defined. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has not entered into many bilateral investment treaties (BITs). This has an effect on the investment climate, as foreign investors are not afforded typical rights. An analysis of the BITs which have been entered into reveals that the national treatment standard and stabilisation, umbrella or renegotiation provisions have not been included. This is problematic since the 2000 Act does not spell out the applicable standard in accordance with which foreign investors should be treated. Moreover, the most-favoured-nation (MFN) or fair and equitable treatment (FET) standards have not been put on a statutory footing. Whilst the Arbitration Act 2012 permits that investment disputes can be internationalised, restrictions have been retained. The effectiveness of international arbitration is further undermined because Saudi Arabia does not enforce non-domestic arbitral awards which contravene public policy. Furthermore, the reservation to the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes allows Saudi Arabia to exclude petroleum and sovereign disputes. Interviews with foreign investors, who operate in Saudi Arabia highlight additional issues. Saudi Arabia ought not to procrastinate far-reaching structural reforms.

Keywords: FDI, Saudi, BITs, law

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1581 Ethnicity, Issue Voting, and Regime Change in the Gambia: the Reason Yahya Jammeh Lost the 2016 Presidential Election

Authors: Alieu B. Sanneh

Abstract:

In a country where there are minimal economic opportunities, with a declining living condition of the people, do electorates in Africa’s newest democracy reevaluate their support for a candidate based on issues or ethnicity. In the 2016 presidential election in The Gambia, the opposition coalition party had successfully managed to overthrow an authoritarian government, which has ruled the country for 22 years. The results of the election are not only surprising but also presented an interesting theoretical puzzle that raises important this paper is going to address. An important fact is that dictator had organized an election which he lost, and this paper will assess the voting decisions of Gambian electorates to determine whether they were more concerned with issues such as status of the economy, human rights abuses by the Jammeh administration or the ethnicities of the contestants who took part in the election. This study uses field survey data, conducted six months after this historic vote, to evaluate the opinion of the electorates. Contrary to the notion of the prevalence of ethnic voting in African elections, an argument made by many scholars, this study concluded that Gambian voters were more concerned with issues such as the economy and human rights under the Jammeh administration than they were for the ethnicities of the candidates. The election was issue-based, and that Jammeh lost the polls due to the concern the electorate had on human rights abuses by his government.

Keywords: election, issue, ethnicity, regime change

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1580 Targeting Methionine Metabolism In Gastric Cancer; Promising To Improve Chemosensetivity With Non-hetrogeneity

Authors: Nigatu Tadesse, Li Juan, Liuhong Ming

Abstract:

Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common and fourth deadly cancer in the world with limited treatment options at late advanced stage in which surgical therapy is not recommended with chemotherapy remain as the mainstay of treatment. However, the occurrence of chemoresistance as well as intera-tumoral and inter-tumoral heterogeneity of response to targeted and immunotherapy underlined a clear unmet treatment need in gastroenterology. Several molecular and cellular alterations ascribed for chemo resistance in GC including cancer stem cells (CSC) and tumor microenvironment (TME) remodeling. Cancer cells including CSC bears higher metabolic demand and major changes in TME involves alterations of gut microbiota interacting with nutrients metabolism. Metabolic upregulation in lipids, carbohydrates, amino acids, fatty acids biosynthesis pathways identified as a common hall mark in GC. Metabolic addiction to methionine metabolism occurs in many cancer cells to promote the biosynthesis of S-Adenosylmethionine (SAM), a universal methyl donor molecule for high rate of transmethylation in GC and promote cell proliferation. Targeting methionine metabolism found to promotes chemo-sensitivity with treatment non-heterogeneity. Methionine restriction (MR) promoted the arrest of cell cycle at S/G2 phase and enhanced downregulation of GC cells resistance to apoptosis (including ferroptosis), which suggests the potential of synergy with chemotherapies acting at S-phase of the cell cycle as well as inducing cell apoptosis. Accumulated evidences showed both the biogenesis as well as intracellular metabolism of exogenous methionine could be safe and effective target for therapy either alone or in combination with chemotherapies. This review article provides an over view of the upregulation in methionine biosynthesis pathway and the molecular signaling through the PI3K/Akt/mTOR-c-MYC axis to promote metabolic reprograming through activating the expression of L-type aminoacid-1 (LAT1) transporter and overexpression of Methionine adenosyltransferase 2A(MAT2A) for intercellular metabolic conversion of exogenous methionine to SAM in GC, and the potential of targeting with novel therapeutic agents such as methioninase (METase), Methionine adenosyltransferase 2A (MAT2A), c-MYC, methyl like transferase 16 (METTL16) inhibitors that are currently under clinical trial development stages and future perspectives.

Keywords: gastric cancer, methionine metabolism, pi3k/akt/mtorc1-c-myc axis, gut microbiota, MAT2A, c-MYC, METTL16, methioninase

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1579 Assessing Natura 2000 Network Effectiveness in Landscape Conservation: A Case Study in Castile and León, Spain (1990-2018)

Authors: Paula García-Llamas, Polonia Díez González, Angela Taboada

Abstract:

In an era marked by unprecedented anthropogenic alterations to landscapes and biodiversity, the consequential loss of fauna, flora, and habitats poses a grave concern. It is imperative to evaluate our capacity to manage and mitigate such changes effectively. This study aims to scrutinize the efficacy of the Natura 2000 Network (NN2000) in landscape conservation within the autonomous community of Castile and Leon (Spain), spanning from 1990 to 2018. Leveraging land use change maps from the European Corine Land Cover database across four subperiods (1990-2000, 2000-2006, 2006-2012, and 2012-2018), we quantified alterations occurring both within NN2000 protected sites and within a 5km buffer zone. Additionally, we spatially assess land use/land cover patterns of change considering fluxes of various habitat types defined within NN2000. Our findings reveal that the protected areas under NN2000 were particularly susceptible to change, with the most significant transformations observed during the 1990-2000 period. Predominant change processes include secondary succession and scrubland formation due to land use cessation, deforestation, and agricultural intensification. While NN2000 demonstrates efficacy in curtailing urbanization and industrialization within buffer zones, its management measures have proven insufficient in safeguarding landscapes against the dynamic changes witnessed between 1990 and 2018, especially in relation to rural abandonment.

Keywords: Corine land cover, land cover changes, site of community importance, special protection area

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1578 Primary Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial of Topical Analgesia Post Haemorrhoidectomy

Authors: James Jin, Weisi Xia, Runzhe Gao, Alain Vandal, Darren Svirkis, Andrew Hill

Abstract:

Background: Post-haemorrhoidectomy pain is concerned by patients/clinicians. Minimizing the postoperation pain is highly interested clinically. Combinations of topical cream targeting three hypothesised post-haemorrhoidectomy pain mechanisms were developed and their effectiveness were evaluated. Specifically, a multi-centred double-blinded randomized clinical trial (RCT) was conducted in adults undergoing excisional haemorrhoidectomy. The primary analysis was conveyed on the data collected to evaluate the effectiveness of the combinations of topical cream targeting three hypothesized pain mechanisms after the operations. Methods: 192 patients were randomly allocated to 4 arms (each arm has 48 patients), and each arm was provided with pain cream 10% metronidazole (M), M and 2% diltiazem (MD), M with 4% lidocaine (ML), or MDL, respectively. Patients were instructed to apply topical treatments three times a day for 7 days, and record outcomes for 14 days after the operations. The primary outcome was VAS pain on day 4. Covariates and models were selected in the blind review stage. Multiple imputations were applied for the missingness. LMER, GLMER models together with natural splines were applied. Sandwich estimators and Wald statistics were used. P-values < 0.05 were considered as significant. Conclusions: The addition of topical lidocaine or diltiazem to metronidazole does not add any benefit. ML had significantly better pain and recovery scores than combination MDL. Multimodal topical analgesia with ML after haemorrhoidectomy could be considered for further evaluation. Further trials considering only 3 arms (M, ML, MD) might be worth exploring.

Keywords: RCT, primary analysis, multiple imputation, pain scores, haemorrhoidectomy, analgesia, lmer

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1577 The Response of Mammal Populations to Abrupt Changes in Fire Regimes in Montane Landscapes of South-Eastern Australia

Authors: Jeremy Johnson, Craig Nitschke, Luke Kelly

Abstract:

Fire regimes, climate and topographic gradients interact to influence ecosystem structure and function across fire-prone, montane landscapes worldwide. Biota have developed a range of adaptations to historic fire regime thresholds, which allow them to persist in these environments. In south-eastern Australia, a signal of fire regime changes is emerging across these landscapes, and anthropogenic climate change is likely to be one of the main drivers of an increase in burnt area and more frequent wildfire over the last 25 years. This shift has the potential to modify vegetation structure and composition at broad scales, which may lead to landscape patterns to which biota are not adapted, increasing the likelihood of local extirpation of some mammal species. This study aimed to address concerns related to the influence of abrupt changes in fire regimes on mammal populations in montane landscapes. It first examined the impact of climate, topography, and vegetation on fire patterns and then explored the consequences of these changes on mammal populations and their habitats. Field studies were undertaken across diverse vegetation, fire severity and fire frequency gradients, utilising camera trapping and passive acoustic monitoring methodologies and the collection of fine-scale vegetation data. Results show that drought is a primary contributor to fire regime shifts at the landscape scale, while topographic factors have a variable influence on wildfire occurrence at finer scales. Frequent, high severity wildfire influenced forest structure and composition at broad spatial scales, and at fine scales, it reduced occurrence of hollow-bearing trees and promoted coarse woody debris. Mammals responded differently to shifts in forest structure and composition depending on their habitat requirements. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire regimes, environmental gradients, and biotic adaptations across temporal and spatial scales. It emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interactions to effectively manage fire-prone ecosystems in the face of climate change.

Keywords: fire, ecology, biodiversity, landscape ecology

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1576 Targeting and Developing the Remaining Pay in an Ageing Field: The Ovhor Field Experience

Authors: Christian Ihwiwhu, Nnamdi Obioha, Udeme John, Edward Bobade, Oghenerunor Bekibele, Adedeji Awujoola, Ibi-Ada Itotoi

Abstract:

Understanding the complexity in the distribution of hydrocarbon in a simple structure with flow baffles and connectivity issues is critical in targeting and developing the remaining pay in a mature asset. Subtle facies changes (heterogeneity) can have a drastic impact on reservoir fluids movement, and this can be crucial to identifying sweet spots in mature fields. This study aims to evaluate selected reservoirs in Ovhor Field, Niger Delta, Nigeria, with the objective of optimising production from the field by targeting undeveloped oil reserves, bypassed pay, and gaining an improved understanding of the selected reservoirs to increase the company’s reservoir limits. The task at the Ovhor field is complicated by poor stratigraphic seismic resolution over the field. 3-D geological (sedimentology and stratigraphy) interpretation, use of results from quantitative interpretation, and proper understanding of production data have been used in recognizing flow baffles and undeveloped compartments in the field. The full field 3-D model has been constructed in such a way as to capture heterogeneities and the various compartments in the field to aid the proper simulation of fluid flow in the field for future production prediction, proper history matching and design of good trajectories to adequately target undeveloped oil in the field. Reservoir property models (porosity, permeability, and net-to-gross) have been constructed by biasing log interpreted properties to a defined environment of deposition model whose interpretation captures the heterogeneities expected in the studied reservoirs. At least, two scenarios have been modelled for most of the studied reservoirs to capture the range of uncertainties we are dealing with. The total original oil in-place volume for the four reservoirs studied is 157 MMstb. The cumulative oil and gas production from the selected reservoirs are 67.64 MMstb and 9.76 Bscf respectively, with current production rate of about 7035 bopd and 4.38 MMscf/d (as at 31/08/2019). Dynamic simulation and production forecast on the 4 reservoirs gave an undeveloped reserve of about 3.82 MMstb from two (2) identified oil restoration activities. These activities include side-tracking and re-perforation of existing wells. This integrated approach led to the identification of bypassed oil in some areas of the selected reservoirs and an improved understanding of the studied reservoirs. New wells have/are being drilled now to test the results of our studies, and the results are very confirmatory and satisfying.

Keywords: facies, flow baffle, bypassed pay, heterogeneities, history matching, reservoir limit

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1575 Prediction of Solanum Lycopersicum Genome Encoded microRNAs Targeting Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus

Authors: Muhammad Shahzad Iqbal, Zobia Sarwar, Salah-ud-Din

Abstract:

Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) belongs to the genus Tospoviruses (family Bunyaviridae). It is one of the most devastating pathogens of tomato (Solanum Lycopersicum) and heavily damages the crop yield each year around the globe. In this study, we retrieved 329 mature miRNA sequences from two microRNA databases (miRBase and miRSoldb) and checked the putative target sites in the downloaded-genome sequence of TSWV. A consensus of three miRNA target prediction tools (RNA22, miRanda and psRNATarget) was used to screen the false-positive microRNAs targeting sites in the TSWV genome. These tools calculated different target sites by calculating minimum free energy (mfe), site-complementarity, minimum folding energy and other microRNA-mRNA binding factors. R language was used to plot the predicted target-site data. All the genes having possible target sites for different miRNAs were screened by building a consensus table. Out of these 329 mature miRNAs predicted by three algorithms, only eight miRNAs met all the criteria/threshold specifications. MC-Fold and MC-Sym were used to predict three-dimensional structures of miRNAs and further analyzed in USCF chimera to visualize the structural and conformational changes before and after microRNA-mRNA interactions. The results of the current study show that the predicted eight miRNAs could further be evaluated by in vitro experiments to develop TSWV-resistant transgenic tomato plants in the future.

Keywords: tomato spotted wild virus (TSWV), Solanum lycopersicum, plant virus, miRNAs, microRNA target prediction, mRNA

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1574 Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Bacterioplankton in the Upper Part of Taktakorpu Water Complex

Authors: Fidan Z. Aliyeva

Abstract:

In the presented article, the formation of the microbiological regime in the Takhtakorpu water complex, as well as spatial-temporal changes in the quantitative indicators of bacterioplankton, were studied. Taktakorpu water complex was built as a continuation of the reconstruction and expansion project of the Samur-Absheron irrigation system in Shabran on the northeastern slope of our republic. It should be noted that with the implementation of the project, the water supply of up to 150 thousand ha of useful land in the northern region has been improved, and the drinking, technical, and irrigation water needs of the population of Baku, Sumgayit and also the Absheron Peninsula, and industrial and agricultural areas, joining the agricultural circulation of new soil areas, Takhtakorpu reservoir with a volume of 238.4 million m³, connected with them -Valvalachay- Takhtakorpu and Takhtakorpu-Jeyranbatan canals have been created, conditions have been created to increase the resources of the Jeyranbatan reservoir. Special attention is paid to the study of saprophytic bacteria in order to determine the development dynamics and biochemical activity of the microbiological regime in the Takhtakorpu Water Complex, which is of great strategic importance for our republic, to evaluate changes under the influence of anthropogenic factors, as well as to evaluate the properties of self-cleaning, mineralization features of organic substances of allochthon and autochthonous origin. One of the main goals of our research is to determine the main structural indicators of bacterioplankton in the upper part of Takhtakorpu water complex in the first three stations and analyzing their quantitative values in a certain time aspect.

Keywords: water, irrigation, sewage, wastewater

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1573 The Attitude of Egyptian Nubian University Students towards Arabic and Nubian Languages

Authors: Sanaa Abouras

Abstract:

This research investigates the attitude of Egyptian Nubian University students towards the Arabic and the two Nubian languages, Nobiin, and Kenuzi-Dongola. The Nubian languages are called by Egyptian Nubians, Fadijja/Fadicca and Kenzi, respectively. Nubians are people who live in the Nubia area which lies between Egypt’s southern borders with the northern part of Sudan. Nubia is divided into two parts - one under the Egyptian regime, and the other under the Sudanese regime. The number of participants used in the study was forty - half male and half female. Twenty of these participants live in the Nubian region and are enrolled at the South Valley University in Aswan, Egypt. This number was compared with an additional twenty Egyptian-Nubian university students who live outside the Nubian region and attend various Egyptian universities located in Alexandria and Cairo. The hypothesis of this study is that Egyptian Nubian University students tend to have positive attitudes toward Arabic and also the Nubian languages. This research is a qualitative and partially quantitative one. Observations, questionnaires, and interviews were used to collect data in order to explore the following: (1) the language students prefer to speak at home and in public and if language preferences are gender-related, (2) the factors that influence the Egyptian Nubian university students' attitudes towards Arabic and Nubian languages, and (3) a look at the future of these ethnic Nubian languages. Results that answered the main question on the attitude of Egyptian Nubian University students toward Arabic and Nubian languages revealed that students who live inside and outside the Nubian region tend to have positive attitudes towards both the Arabic and the Nubian languages.

Keywords: language attitude, minority, Arabic language, Nubian Language

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1572 Hydrological Modeling and Climate Change Impact Assessment Using HBV Model, A Case Study of Karnali River Basin of Nepal

Authors: Sagar Shiwakoti, Narendra Man Shakya

Abstract:

The lumped conceptual hydrological model HBV is applied to the Karnali River Basin to estimate runoff at several gauging stations and to analyze the changes in catchment hydrology and future flood magnitude due to climate change. The performance of the model is analyzed to assess its suitability to simulate streamflow in snow fed mountainous catchments. Due to the structural complexity, the model shows difficulties in modeling low and high flows accurately at the same time. It is observed that the low flows were generally underestimated and the peaks were correctly estimated except for some sharp peaks due to isolated precipitation events. In this study, attempt has been made to evaluate the importance of snow melt discharge in the runoff regime of the basin. Quantification of contribution of snowmelt to annual, summer and winter runoff has been done. The contribution is highest at the beginning of the hot months as the accumulated snow begins to melt. Examination of this contribution under conditions of increased temperatures indicate that global warming leading to increase in average basin temperature will significantly lead to higher contributions to runoff from snowmelt. Forcing the model with the output of HadCM3 GCM and the A1B scenario downscaled to the station level show significant changes to catchment hydrology in the 2040s. It is observed that the increase in runoff is most extreme in June - July. A shift in the hydrological regime is also observed.

Keywords: hydrological modeling, HBV light, rainfall runoff modeling, snow melt, climate change

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1571 Modelling Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility with Markov-Switching Regression, Single Regime GARCH and Markov-Switching GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

Abstract:

Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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1570 Expression of Tissue Plasminogen Activator in Transgenic Tobacco Plants by Signal Peptides Targeting for Delivery to Apoplast, Endoplasmic Reticulum and Cytosol Spaces

Authors: Sadegh Lotfieblisofla, Arash Khodabakhshi

Abstract:

Tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) as a serine protease plays an important role in the fibrinolytic system and the dissolution of fibrin clots in human body. The production of this drug in plants such as tobacco could reduce its production costs. In this study, expression of tPA gene and protein targeting to different plant cell compartments, using various signal peptides has been investigated. For high level of expression, Kozak sequence was used after CaMV35S in the beginning of the gene. In order to design the final construction, Extensin, KDEL (amino acid sequence including Lys-Asp-Glu-Leu) and SP (γ-zein signal peptide coding sequence) were used as leader signals to conduct this protein into apoplast, endoplasmic reticulum and cytosol spaces, respectively. Cloned human tPA gene under the CaMV (Cauliflower mosaic virus) 35S promoter and NOS (Nopaline Synthase) terminator into pBI121 plasmid was transferred into tobacco explants by Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain LBA4404. The presence and copy number of genes in transgenic tobacco was proved by Southern blotting. Enzymatic activity of the rt-PA protein in transgenic plants compared to non-transgenic plants was confirmed by Zymography assay. The presence and amount of rt-PA recombinant protein in plants was estimated by ELISA analysis on crude protein extract of transgenic tobacco using a specific antibody. The yield of recombinant tPA in transgenic tobacco for SP, KDEL, Extensin signals were counted 0.50, 0.68, 0.69 microgram per milligram of total soluble proteins.

Keywords: tPA, recombinant, transgenic, tobacco

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1569 The Prevalence of Cardiovascular Diseases in World-Class Triathletes: An Internet-Based Study from 2006 to 2019

Authors: Lingxia Li, Frédéric Schnell, Shuzhe Ding, Solène Le Douairon Lahaye

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Background: The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in different triathlon sports disciplines has not been determined. Purpose: The present study aimed to determine the prevalence of CVD in world-class triathletes according to their sex, sports disciplines (aquathlon, duathlon, triathlon…), and formats (short/medium, long, and ultra-long distance). Methods: Male and female elite athletes from eleven triathlon sport disciplines, ranked in the internationally yearly top 10 between 2006 and 2019, were included. The athlete’s name was associated in a Google search with selected key terms related to heart disease and/or cardiac abnormalities. The prevalence and the hazard function of the variation were calculated, and the differences were then compared. Results: From 1329 athletes (male 639, female 690), 13 cases of CVD (0.98%, 95% CI: [0.45-1.51]) were identified, and the mean age of their occurrence was 29±6 years. Although no sex differences were found in each sport discipline/format (p > 0.05), severe outcomes (sudden cardiac arrest/death and those who had to stop their sports practice) were only observed in males. Short-distance triathlon (5.08%, 95% CI: [1.12-9.05]) was more affected than other disciplines in short/medium, long, and ultra-long formats. The prevalence of CVD in athletes who participated in multi-type of sports disciplines (4.14%, 95% CI: [1.14-7.15]) was higher than in those who participated in one type (0.52%, 95% CI: [0.10-0.93]) (p = 0.0004). Conclusion: Athletes in short-distance triathlon were more affected than other disciplines in short/medium, long and ultra-long formats. Athletes who participate in short/medium distances and those who participate in multi-type of sports disciplines should be closely monitored regardless of sex.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, sudden cardiac death, triathlon sport disciplines, world-class athletes

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1568 The Effects of Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation on Brain Oxygenation and Pleasure during Exercise

Authors: Alexandre H. Okano, Pedro M. D. Agrícola, Daniel G. Da S. Machado, Luiz I. Do N. Neto, Luiz F. Farias Junior, Paulo H. D. Nascimento, Rickson C. Mesquita, John F. Araujo, Eduardo B. Fontes, Hassan M. Elsangedy, Shinsuke Shimojo, Li M. Li

Abstract:

The prefrontal cortex is involved in the reward system and the insular cortex integrates the afferent inputs arriving from the body’ systems and turns into feelings. Therefore, modulating neuronal activity in these regions may change individuals’ perception in a given situation such as exercise. We tested whether transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) change cerebral oxygenation and pleasure during exercise. Fourteen volunteer healthy adult men were assessed into five different sessions. First, subjects underwent to a maximum incremental test on a cycle ergometer. Then, subjects were randomly assigned to a transcranial direct current stimulation (2mA for 15 min) intervention in a cross over design in four different conditions: anode and cathode electrodes on T3 and Fp2 targeting the insular cortex, and Fpz and F4 targeting prefrontal cortex, respectively; and their respective sham. These sessions were followed by 30 min of moderate intensity exercise. Brain oxygenation was measured in prefrontal cortex with a near infrared spectroscopy. Perceived exertion and pleasure were also measured during exercise. The asymmetry in prefrontal cortex oxygenation before the stimulation decreased only when it was applied over this region which did not occur after insular cortex or sham stimulation. Furthermore, pleasure was maintained during exercise only after prefrontal cortex stimulation (P > 0.7), while there was a decrease throughout exercise (P < 0.03) during the other conditions. We conclude that tDCS over the prefrontal cortex changes brain oxygenation in ventromedial prefrontal cortex and maintains perceived pleasure during exercise. Therefore, this technique might be used to enhance effective responses related to exercise.

Keywords: affect, brain stimulation, dopamine neuromodulation, pleasure, reward, transcranial direct current stimulation

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1567 Development of Nanoparticulate Based Chimeric Drug Delivery System Using Drug Bioconjugated Plant Virus Capsid on Biocompatible Nanoparticles

Authors: Indu Barwal, Shloka Thakur, Subhash C. Yadav

Abstract:

The plant virus capsid protein based nanoparticles are extensively studied for their application in biomedical research for development of nanomedicines and drug delivery systems. We have developed a chimeric drug delivery system by controlled in vitro assembly of separately bioconjugated fluorescent dye (as reporting molecule), folic acid (as receptor binding biomolecule for targeted delivery) and doxorubicin (as anticancer drug) using modified EDC NHS chemistry on heterologously overexpressed (E. coli) capsid proteins of cowpea chlorotic mottle virus (CCMV). This chimeric vehicle was further encapsidated on gold nanoparticles (20nm) coated with 5≠ thiolated DNA probe to neutralize the positive charge of capsid proteins. This facilitates the in vitro assembly of modified capsid subunits on the gold nanoparticles to develop chimeric GNPs encapsidated targeted drug delivery system. The bioconjugation of functionalities, number of functionality on capsid subunits as well as virus like nanoparticles, structural stability and in vitro assembly were confirmed by SDS PAGE, relative absorbance, MALDI TOF, ESI-MS, Circular dichroism, intrinsic tryptophan fluorescence, zeta particle size analyzer and TEM imaging. This vehicle was stable at pH 4.0 to 8.0 suitable for many organelles targeting. This in vitro assembled chimeric plant virus like particles could be suitable for ideal drug delivery vehicles for subcutaneous cancer treatment and could be further modified for other type of cancer treatment by conjugating other functionalities (targeting, drug) on capsids.

Keywords: chimeric drug delivery vehicles, bioconjugated plant, virus, capsid

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1566 Development of Site-Specific Colonic Drug Delivery System (Nanoparticles) of Chitosan Coated with pH Sensitive Polymer for the Management of Colonic Inflammation

Authors: Pooja Mongia Raj, Rakesh Raj, Alpana Ram

Abstract:

Background: The use of multiparticulate drug delivery systems in preference to single unit dosage forms for colon targeting purposes dates back to 1985 when Hardy and co-workers showed that multiparticulate systems enabled the drug to reach the colon quickly and were retained in the ascending colon for a relatively long period of time. Methods: Site-specific colonic drug delivery system (nanoparticles) of 5-ASA were prepared and coated with pH sensitive polymer. Chitosan nanoparticles (CTNP) bearing 5-Amino salicylic acid (5-ASA) were prepared, by ionotropic gelation method. Nanoparticulate dosage form consisting of a hydrophobic core enteric coated with pH-dependent polymer Eudragit S-100 by solvent evaporation method, for the effective delivery of drug to the colon for treatment of ulcerative colitis. Results: The mean diameter of CTNP and ECTNP formulations were 159 and 661 nm, respectively. Also optimum value of polydispersity index was found to be 0.249 [count rate (kcps) was 251.2] and 0.170 [count rate (kcps) was 173.9] was obtained for both the formulations respectively. Conclusion: CTNP and Eudragit chitosan nanoparticles (ECTNP) was characterized for shape and surface morphology by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) appeared to be spherical in shape. The in vitro drug release was investigated using USP dissolution test apparatus in different simulated GIT fluids showed promising release. In vivo experiments are in further proceeding for fruitful results.

Keywords: colon targeting, nanoparticles, polymer, 5-amino salicylic acid, edragit

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1565 Zeros Elimination from the National Currency

Authors: Zahra Karimi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role and importance of accounting for the implementation of the VAT system in the country. For this purpose, after the evaluation of specifications and important advantages of the VAT and the experience of other countries, important role of accounting in the precise determination of taxes, strategies to prevent escape of tax and realization of tax revenues of government, necessary control to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the calculations discussed. High-dependence of government to borrowing from the banking system and inflation tax and a low general ratio of tax revenues to GDP, indicating the inadequacy of the country's tax system. It can be said that being of a proper accounting system consider as a prerequisite for successful implementation of VAT in the country. So it's crucial for accountants with responsibility announce its full fitness to meet the requirements. For successful implementation of VAT as such a multi-stage sales tax and the tax on the price.

Keywords: accounting, tax reform in Iran, Value Added Tax (VAT), economic

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1564 Introduction of a Model of Students' Practice in Social Work Education: Case of Republic of Srpska

Authors: Vesna Šućur-Janjetović, Andrea Rakanović Radonjić

Abstract:

Department of Social Work of the Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Banja Luka is the only School of Social Work in the Republic of Srpska (entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina). This Department has been implementing students’ practice as mandatory module since it was established in year 2000. As of 2006, the University of Banja Luka initiated the transformation of the education system in accordance with the Bologna Agreement. The Department of Social Work adopted a new Curriculum that anticipated 120 hours of Students’ practice. After ten years, a new process of changing and improving the Curriculum has been initiated, and research was conducted, in order to meet both the needs of practice and academic standards in the field of social work education. From 2006-2016 students were evaluating their practice experience under the mentor’s supervision. These evaluations were subject to the evaluation process of current Curriculum, including students practice module. Additional research was designed in order to assess the opinions of certified mentors on specific aspects of students’ practice, the needs of practice and possibilities for improving the education for social workers. Special research instruments were designed for the purpose of this research. All mentors were graduated social works working in all fields where social work services are provided (social welfare sector, health, education, non-government sector etc.). The third dimension of the research was a qualitative analysis of curriculums of Schools of Social Work in the region of Southeast Europe. This paper represents the results of the research, conclusions and consequences that led towards the improvement of Students’ practice and Curriculum of the Department of Social Work. The new Model anticipates 300 hours of Students’ practice, divided in three years of study, with different and specific learning outcomes.

Keywords: curriculum, Republic of Srpska, social work education, students’ practice

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1563 India and Space Insurance Policy: An Analytical Insight

Authors: Shreyas Jayasimha, Suneel Anand Sundharesan, Rohan Tigadi

Abstract:

In the recent past, the United States of America and Russia were the only two dominant players in the field of space exploration and had a virtual monopoly in the field of space and technology. However, this has changed over the past few years. Many other nation states such as India, China, and the UK have made significant progress in this field. Amongst these nations, the growth and development of the Indian space program have been nothing short of a miracle. Starting recently, India has successfully launched a series of satellites including its much acclaimed Mangalyaan mission, which placed a satellite in Mars’ orbit. The fact that India was able to attain this feat in its attempt demonstrates the enormous growth potential and promise that the Indian space program holds for the coming years. However, unlike other space-faring nations, India does not have a comprehensive and consolidated space insurance policy. In this regard, it is pertinent to note that, the costs and risks involved in a administering a space program are enormous. Therefore, in the absence of a comprehensive space insurance policy, any losses from an unsuccessful will have to be borne by the state exchequer. Thus, in order to ensure that Indian space program continues on its upward trajectory, the Indian establishment should seriously consider formulating a comprehensive insurance policy. This paper intends to analyze the international best practices followed by other space-faring nations in relation to space insurance policy. Thereafter, the authors seek to examine the current regime in India relating to space insurance policy. Finally, the authors will conclude by providing a series of recommendations regarding the essential elements that should be part of any Indian space insurance policy regime.

Keywords: India, space insurance policy, space law, Indian space research organization

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1562 Objective-Based System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast the Number of Health Professionals in Pudong New Area of Shanghai

Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

Abstract:

Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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1561 Overall Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Kenya

Authors: George Ogono Muok, N. Obange, S. A. Odhiambo

Abstract:

Empirical literature on the determinants of foreign direct investments (FDI) flows is extensive but controversial over some determinants of FDI in-flows in developing countries. The objective of this study therefore was to investigate the overall determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya. Dynamic macroeconomic theory and correlational study design provided theoretical framework for specification of a time series model. The study used data observed from 1970 to 2015 in World Development Indicators (WDI) data bank. The results show that annual growth rate of GDP, inflation rates and external debt as a proportion of GDP are significant determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya and are therefore important macroeconomic parameters for policy formulation for promotion of FDI inflows in Kenya.

Keywords: determinants of foreign, direct, investment inflows in, Kenya, Africa

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1560 Growth and Yield Assessment of Two Types of Sorghum-Sudangrass Hybrids as Affected by Deficit Irrigation

Authors: A. Abbas Khalaf, L. Issazadeh, Z. Arif Abdullah, J. Hassanpour

Abstract:

In order to evaluate the growth and yield properties of two Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrids under different irrigation levels, an investigation was done in the experiment site of Collage of Agriculture, University of Duhok, Kurdistan region of Iraq (36°5´38 N, 42°52´02 E) in the years 2015-16. The experiment was conducted under Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications, which main factor was irrigation treatments (I100, I75 and I50) according to evaporation pan class A and type of Sorghum-Sudangrass hybrids (KH12SU9001, G1) and (KH12SU9002, G2) were factors of subplots. The parameters studied were: plant height (cm), number of green leaves per plant; leaf area (m2/m2), stem thickness (mm), percent of protein, fresh and dry biomass (ton.ha-1) and also crop water productivity. The results of variance analysis showed that KH12SU9001 variety had more amount of leaf area, percent of protein, fresh and dry biomass yield in comparison to KH12SU9002 variety. By comparing effects of irrigation levels on vegetative growth and yield properties, results showed that amount of plant height, fresh and dry biomass weight was decreased by decreasing irrigation level from full irrigation regime to 5 o% of irrigation level. Also, results of crop water productivity (CWP) indicated that improvement in quantity of irrigation would impact fresh and dry biomass yield significantly. Full irrigation regime was recorded the highest level of CWP (1.28-1.29 kg.m-3).

Keywords: deficit irrigation, growth, sorghum-sudangrass hybrid, yield

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1559 Role of Inherited Structures during Inversion Tectonics: An Example from Tunisia, North Africa

Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Ali Kadri, Noureddine Ben Ayed

Abstract:

The Tunisian dorsal backland is located on the Eastern Atlas side of the Maghrebides (North Africa). The analysis of collected field data in the Rouas and Ruissate mountains area allowed us to develop new interpretations for its structural framework. Our kinematic analysis of fault-slip data reveals the presence of an extensional tectonic regime with NE-SW Shmin, characterizing the Mesozoic times. In addition, geophysical data shows that the synsedimentary normal faulting is accompanied by thickness variations of sedimentary sequences and Triassic salt movements. Then, after the Eurasia-Africa plate’s convergence during the Eocene, compressive tectonic deformations affected and reactivated the inherited NW-SE and N-S trending normal faults as dextral strike-slip and reverse faults, respectively. This tectonic inversion, with compression to the transpressional tectonic regime and NW-SE SHmax, continued during the successive shortening phases of the upper Miocene and Quaternary. The geometry of the Rouas and Ruissate belt is expressed as a fault propagation fold, affecting Jurassic and Cretaceous deposits. The Triassic evaporates constitute the decollement levels, facilitating the detachment and deformation of the sedimentary cover. The backland of this thrust belt is defined by NNE-SSW trending imbrication features that are controlled by a basement N-S fault.

Keywords: Tunisian dorsal backland, fault slip data; synsedimentary faults, tectonic inversion, decollement level, fault propagation fold

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1558 Heat Transfer Dependent Vortex Shedding of Thermo-Viscous Shear-Thinning Fluids

Authors: Markus Rütten, Olaf Wünsch

Abstract:

Non-Newtonian fluid properties can change the flow behaviour significantly, its prediction is more difficult when thermal effects come into play. Hence, the focal point of this work is the wake flow behind a heated circular cylinder in the laminar vortex shedding regime for thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids. In the case of isothermal flows of Newtonian fluids the vortex shedding regime is characterised by a distinct Reynolds number and an associated Strouhal number. In the case of thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids the flow regime can significantly change in dependence of the temperature of the viscous wall of the cylinder. The Reynolds number alters locally and, consequentially, the Strouhal number globally. In the present CFD study the temperature dependence of the Reynolds and Strouhal number is investigated for the flow of a Carreau fluid around a heated cylinder. The temperature dependence of the fluid viscosity has been modelled by applying the standard Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) equation. In the present simulation campaign thermal boundary conditions have been varied over a wide range in order to derive a relation between dimensionless heat transfer, Reynolds and Strouhal number. Together with the shear thinning due to the high shear rates close to the cylinder wall this leads to a significant decrease of viscosity of three orders of magnitude in the nearfield of the cylinder and a reduction of two orders of magnitude in the wake field. Yet the shear thinning effect is able to change the flow topology: a complex K´arm´an vortex street occurs, also revealing distinct characteristic frequencies associated with the dominant and sub-dominant vortices. Heating up the cylinder wall leads to a delayed flow separation and narrower wake flow, giving lesser space for the sequence of counter-rotating vortices. This spatial limitation does not only reduce the amplitude of the oscillating wake flow it also shifts the dominant frequency to higher frequencies, furthermore it damps higher harmonics. Eventually the locally heated wake flow smears out. Eventually, the CFD simulation results of the systematically varied thermal flow parameter study have been used to describe a relation for the main characteristic order parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, thermo-viscous fluids, shear thinning, vortex shedding

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1557 The Exchange Rate Exposure of Exporting and Domestic Firms in Central and Eastern European Countries Controlling for Regime Effect and Recent Crisis

Authors: Raheel Asif, Michael Frommel

Abstract:

This paper focuses on analyzing the exchange rate exposure of exporting & domestic firms in (the so far rarely addressed) largest Eastern European transition economies, i.e., Russia and the three EU accession countries, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic (CEEC-3). It also controls for possible effects of different exchange rate regimes, Great Financial crisis (2007-08), Russian Financial crisis (2014-15), the formation of EU & turn of year effect. Substantially improving the results from the existing literature on these transition economies, we find for more than 51% of our sample firms in CEEC-3 countries and 29% in Russia shows a significant exchange rate exposure. However, the magnitude and direction of firms’ exposure depends on the particular bilateral exchange rate and differs between CEEC-3 and Russia. We find that share price increases with an appreciation of the domestic currency against the EURO and US Dollar (USD) in CEEC-3; however, the effect is more pronounced for EURO as expected. Whereas, for Russian firms share price increases with a depreciation of the domestic currency against the USD only. Those differences may result from a differing dominance of exposure channels in the respective economies, such as the country-specific export structure, competitiveness channels, and dependence on foreign debt. Finally, the switch from a pegged to a flexible exchange rate regime appears to have a less pronounced effect for the exchange rate exposure of firms in all countries except for USD in Poland and Russia.

Keywords: exchange rate exposure, transition economies, central and eastern Europe, international finance

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1556 Legal Implications of a Single African Air Transport Market on Airlines and Passengers in Nigeria

Authors: Adejoke Omowumi Adediran

Abstract:

The commitment of African states to liberalise civil aviation in Africa through the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision of 1999 was reiterated in 2015 at the African Union Assembly meeting. A declaration was made by African Heads of government at the meeting to ensure the immediate implementation of the decision towards the establishment of a Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) by 2017. A SAATM will imply among others, a removal of all commercial restrictions for African airlines in Africa; access to any route in Africa by African airlines without any required permit or authorisation; and a common set of regulations for airlines in African member states. As the envisioned 2017 date for launching the SAATM could not be met, a new date of January 2018 has been set. The lack of political will by African States, however, remains a prominent challenge to the realisation of the SAATM. As at June 2017, only twenty-one states had signed the commitment to actualise the decision creating the SAATM. In actualisation of the SAATM, a regulatory framework has been established to efficiently manage the new African airline industry, and regulatory texts have been adopted as part of the legal regime. This legal regime is to regulate both interstate and domestic operations. Airlines in Nigeria are currently faced with certain challenges which ultimately affect their effectiveness and passengers as well do not enjoy utmost customer satisfaction with services rendered by the airlines. Although Nigeria has demonstrated support for the SAATM since 2015, as Nigeria alongside ten other states, signed the initial commitment, whether or not SAATM will eventually be beneficial to airlines and passengers has become an issue in the light of the challenges of the Nigerian airline industry. Remarkably, the benefit of the SAATM is to a large extent ultimately determined by its legal framework. Using doctrinal research, this paper examines the legal implications of the SAATM on airlines and passengers in Nigeria. This paper analyses the legal framework of SAATM and juxtaposes this with the particular issues affecting airlines and passengers in Nigeria such as financial difficulties on the part of airlines and consumer protection as regards passengers. Among others, it can be asserted that the legal regime affords an opportunity for business expansion and creates a fair environment for competition. This is beneficial not only to the airlines but to passengers as well. In addition, in the interest of passengers, consumer rights are prescribed, and the regulations also cater for situations where airlines interrupt their services, as losses arising from these situations will be mitigated. There is indeed no doubt that the SAATM will be of great utility to both airlines and passengers in Nigeria.

Keywords: airlines, civil aviation, competition, consumer protection, passengers, single African air transport market, yamoussoukro decision

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1555 The Effects of North Sea Caspian Pattern Index on the Temperature and Precipitation Regime in the Aegean Region of Turkey

Authors: Cenk Sezen, Turgay Partal

Abstract:

North Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCP) refers to an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Sea and North Caspian at the 500 hPa geopotential height level. The aim of this study is to search for effects of NCP on annual and seasonal mean temperature and also annual and seasonal precipitation totals in the Aegean region of Turkey. The study contains the data that consist of 46 years obtained from nine meteorological stations. To determine the relationship between NCP and the climatic parameters, firstly the Pearson correlation coefficient method was utilized. According to the results of the analysis, most of the stations in the region have a high negative correlation NCPI in all seasons, especially in the winter season in terms of annual and seasonal mean temperature (statistically at significant at the 90% level). Besides, high negative correlation values between NCPI and precipitation totals are observed during the winter season at the most of stations. Furthermore, the NCPI values were divided into two group as NCPI(-) and NCPI(+), and then mean temperature and precipitation total values, which are grouped according to the NCP(-) and NCP(+) phases, were determined as annual and seasonal. During the NCPI(-), higher mean temperature values are observed in all of seasons, particularly in the winter season compared to the mean temperature values under effect of NCP(+). Similarly, during the NCPI(-) in winter season precipitation total values have higher than the precipitation total values under the effect of NCP(+); however, in other seasons there no substantial changes were observed between the precipitation total values. As a result of this study, significant proof is obtained with regards to the influences of NCP on the temperature and precipitation regime in the Aegean region of Turkey.

Keywords: Aegean region, NCPI, precipitation, temperature

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1554 Determinants of Budget Performance in an Oil-Based Economy

Authors: Adeola Adenikinju, Olusanya E. Olubusoye, Lateef O. Akinpelu, Dilinna L. Nwobi

Abstract:

Since the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007), the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made public its fiscal budget and the subsequent implementation report. A critical review of these documents shows significant variations in the five macroeconomic variables which are inputs in each Presidential budget; oil Production target (mbpd), oil price ($), Foreign exchange rate(N/$), and Gross Domestic Product growth rate (%) and inflation rate (%). This results in underperformance of the Federal budget expected output in terms of non-oil and oil revenue aggregates. This paper evaluates first the existing variance between budgeted and actuals, then the relationship and causality between the determinants of Federal fiscal budget assumptions, and finally the determinants of FGN’s Gross Oil Revenue. The paper employed the use of descriptive statistics, the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and a Profit oil probabilistic model to achieve these objectives. This model permits for both the static and dynamic effect(s) of the independent variable(s) on the dependent variable, unlike a static model that accounts for static or fixed effect(s) only. It offers a technique for checking the existence of a long-run relationship between variables, unlike other tests of cointegration, such as the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests, which consider only non-stationary series that are integrated of the same order. Finally, even with small sample size, the ARDL model is known to generate a valid result, for it is the dependent variable and is the explanatory variable. The results showed that there is a long-run relationship between oil revenue as a proxy for budget performance and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a short-run relationship between oil revenue and its determinants; oil price, produced oil quantity, and foreign exchange rate. There is a long-run relationship between non-oil revenue and its determinants; inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and foreign exchange rate. The grangers’ causality test results show that there is a mono-directional causality between oil revenue and its determinants. The Federal budget assumptions only explain 68% of oil revenue and 62% of non-oil revenue. There is a mono-directional causality between non-oil revenue and its determinants. The Profit oil Model describes production sharing contracts, joint ventures, and modified carrying arrangements as the greatest contributors to FGN’s gross oil revenue. This provides empirical justification for the selected macroeconomic variables used in the Federal budget design and performance evaluation. The research recommends other variables, debt and money supply, be included in the Federal budget design to explain the Federal budget revenue performance further.

Keywords: ARDL, budget performance, oil price, oil quantity, oil revenue

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