Search results for: sequential confidence estimation

Authors: Y. Salfati, D. Sharef Bussel, J. Zamir

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In this paper, we present an Evaluation Case Study implementing the eight principles of Collaborative Approaches to Evaluation (CAE) as designed by Brad Cousins in the past decade. The focus of this paper is sharing a rich experience in which we achieved two main goals. The first was the development of a valuable and meaningful new teacher training program, and the second was a successful implementation of the CAE principles. The innovative teacher training program is based on the idea of including physical movement during the process of teaching and learning academic themes. The program is called Learning through Movement. This program is a response to a call from the Ministry of Education, claiming that today children sit in front of screens and do not exercise any physical activity. In order to contribute to children’s health, physical, and cognitive development, the Ministry of Education promotes learning through physical activities. Research supports the idea that sports and physical exercise improve academic achievements. The Learning through Movement program is operated by Kaye Academic College. Students in the Elementary School Training Program, together with students in the Physical Education Training Program, implement the program in collaboration with two mentors from the College. The program combines academic learning with physical activity. The evaluation began at the beginning of the program. During the evaluation process, data was collected by means of qualitative tools, including interviews with mentors, observations during the students’ collaborative planning, class observations at school and focus groups with students, as well as the collection of documentation related to the teamwork and to the program itself. The data was analyzed using content analysis and triangulation. The preliminary results show outcomes relating to the Teacher Training Programs, the student teachers, the pupils in class, the role of Physical Education teachers, and the evaluation. The Teacher Training Programs developed a collaborative approach to lesson planning. The students' teachers demonstrated a change in their basic attitudes towards the idea of integrating physical activities during the lessons. The pupils indicated higher motivation through full participation in classes. These three outcomes are indicators of the success of the program. An additional significant outcome of the program relates to the status and role of the physical education teachers, changing their role from marginal to central in the school. Concerning evaluation, a deep sense of trust and confidence was achieved, between the evaluator and the whole team. The paper includes the perspectives and challenges of the heads and mentors of the two programs as well as the evaluator’s conclusions. The evaluation unveils challenges in conducting a CAE evaluation in such a complex setting.

Keywords: collaborative evaluation, training teachers, learning through movement

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Authors: Kedar J. Mahadeshwar

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Concept introduction: This paper talks about how an innovative cloud based analytics enabled solution that could address a major industry challenge that is approaching all of us globally faster than what one would think. The world of supply chain for drugs and devices is changing today at a rapid speed. In the US, the Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA) is a new law for Tracing, Verification and Serialization phasing in starting Jan 1, 2015 for manufacturers, repackagers, wholesalers and pharmacies / clinics. Similarly we are seeing pressures building up in Europe, China and many countries that would require an absolute traceability of every drug and device end to end. Companies (both manufacturers and distributors) can use this opportunity not only to be compliant but to differentiate themselves over competition. And moreover a country such as UAE can be the leader in coming up with a global solution that brings innovation in this industry. Problem definition and timing: The problem of counterfeit drug market, recognized by FDA, causes billions of dollars loss every year. Even in UAE, the concerns over prevalence of counterfeit drugs, which enter through ports such as Dubai remains a big concern, as per UAE pharma and healthcare report, Q1 2015. Distribution of drugs and devices involves multiple processes and systems that do not talk to each other. Consumer confidence is at risk due to this lack of traceability and any leading provider is at risk of losing its reputation. Globally there is an increasing pressure by government and regulatory bodies to trace serial numbers and lot numbers of every drug and medical devices throughout a supply chain. Though many of large corporations use some form of ERP (enterprise resource planning) software, it is far from having a capability to trace a lot and serial number beyond the enterprise and making this information easily available real time. Solution: The solution here talks about a service provider that allows all subscribers to take advantage of this service. The solution allows a service provider regardless of its physical location, to host this cloud based traceability and analytics solution of millions of distribution transactions that capture lots of each drug and device. The solution platform will capture a movement of every medical device and drug end to end from its manufacturer to a hospital or a doctor through a series of distributor or retail network. The platform also provides advanced analytics solution to do some intelligent reporting online. Why Dubai? Opportunity exists with huge investment done in Dubai healthcare city also with using technology and infrastructure to attract more FDI to provide such a service. UAE and countries similar will be facing this pressure from regulators globally in near future. But more interestingly, Dubai can attract such innovators/companies to run and host such a cloud based solution and become a hub of such traceability globally.

Keywords: cloud, pharmaceutical, supply chain, tracking

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Authors: Sanjay Singh, Karunanithi Priyanka, Ramoji Kosuru, Raju Prasad Sharma

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Herbal drugs are well known for their mixed pharmacological activities with the benefit of no harmful side effects. The use of herbal drugs is limited because of their higher dose requirement, frequent drug administration, poor bioavailability of phytochemicals and delayed onset of action. Ficus religiosa, a potent anti-oxidant plant useful in the treatment of diabetes and cancer was selected for the study. Solid lipid nanoparticles (SLN) of Ficus religiosa extract was developed for the enhancement in oral bioavailability of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside, principal components present in the extract. Hot homogenization followed by ultrasonication method was used to develop extract loaded SLN. Developed extract loaded SLN were characterized for particle size, PDI, zeta potential, entrapment efficiency, in vitro drug release and kinetics, fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, powder X-ray diffractrometry and stability studies. Entrapment efficiency of optimized extract loaded SLN was found to be 68.46 % (56.13 % of stigmasterol and 12.33 % of β-sitosteryl-d-glucoside, respectively). RP HPLC method development was done for simultaneous estimation of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside in Ficus religiosa extract in rat plasma. Bioavailability studies were carried out for extract in suspension form and optimized extract loaded SLN. AUC of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside were increased by 6.7-folds by 9.2-folds, respectively in rats treated with extract loaded SLN compared to extract suspension. Also, Cmax of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside were increased by 4.3-folds by 3.9-folds, respectively in rats treated with extract loaded SLN compared to extract suspension. Mean residence times (MRT) for stigmasterol were found to be 12.3 ± 0.67 hours from extract and 7.4 ± 2.1 hours from SLN and for β-sitosterol-d-glucoside, 10.49 ± 2.9 hours from extract and 6.4 ± 0.3 hours from SLN. Hence, it was concluded that SLN enhanced the bioavailability and reduced the MRT of stigmasterol and β-sitosterol-d-glucoside in Ficus religiosa extract which in turn may lead to reduction in dose of Ficus religiosa extract, prolonged duration of action and also enhanced therapeutic efficacy.

Keywords: Ficus religiosa, phytosterolins, bioavailability, solid lipid nanoparticles, stigmasterol and β-sitosteryl-d-glucoside

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Authors: Eric Dede, Marcus Tindall, John W. Cherrie, Steve Hankin, Christopher Collins

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Current exposure models used in contaminated land risk assessment are highly conservative. Use of these models may lead to over-estimation of actual exposures, possibly resulting in negative financial implications due to un-necessary remediation. Thus, we are carrying out a study seeking to improve our understanding of human exposure to selected toxic elements in soil: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) resulting from allotment land-use. The study employs biomonitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling to quantify human exposure to these elements. We recruited 37 allotment users (adults > 18 years old) in Scotland, UK, to participate in the study. Concentrations of the elements (and their bioaccessibility) were measured in allotment samples (soil and allotment produce). Amount of produce consumed by the participants and participants’ biological samples (urine and blood) were collected for up to 12 consecutive months. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Reading Research Ethics Committee. PBPK models (coded in MATLAB) were used to estimate the distribution and accumulation of the elements in key body compartments, thus indicating the internal body burden. Simulating low element intake (based on estimated ‘doses’ from produce consumption records), predictive models suggested that detection of these elements in urine and blood was possible within a given period of time following exposure. This information was used in planning biomonitoring, and is currently being used in the interpretation of test results from biological samples. Evaluation of the models is being carried out using biomonitoring data, by comparing model predicted concentrations and measured biomarker concentrations. The PBPK models will be used to generate bioavailability values, which could be incorporated in contaminated land exposure models. Thus, the findings from this study will promote a more sustainable approach to contaminated land management.

Keywords: biomonitoring, exposure, PBPK modelling, toxic elements

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Authors: Susan E Orlovich

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Ongoing, effective teacher professional learning is acknowledged as a critical influence on teacher practice. However, it is unclear whether the elements of effective professional learning result in transformed teacher practice in the classroom. This research project is interested in 4C teacher professional learning. The professional learning practices to assist teachers in transforming their practice to integrate the 4C capabilities seldom feature in the academic literature. The 4Cs are a shorthand way of representing the concepts of communication, collaboration, creativity, and critical reflection and refer to the capabilities needed for deeper learning, personal growth, and effective participation in society. The New South Wales curriculum review (2020) acknowledges that identifying, teaching, and assessing the 4C capabilities are areas of challenge for teachers. However, it also recognises that it is essential for teachers to build the confidence and capacity to understand, teach and assess the capabilities necessary for learners to thrive in the 21st century. This qualitative research project explores the professional learning experiences of sixteen teachers in four different primaries (K-6) settings in Sydney, Australia, who are learning to integrate, teach and assess the 4Cs. The project draws on the Theory of Practice Architecture as a framework to analyse and interpret teachers' experiences in each site. The sixteen participants in the study are teachers from four primary settings and include early career, experienced, and teachers in leadership roles (including the principal). In addition, some of the participants are also teachers who are learning within a Community of Practice (CoP) as their school setting is engaged in a 4C professional learning, Community of Practice. Qualitative and arts-informed research methods are utilised to examine the cultural-discursive, social-political, and material-economic practice arrangements of the site, explore how these arrangements may have shaped the professional learning experiences of teachers, and in turn, influence the teaching practices of the 4Cs in the setting. The research is in the data analysis stage (October 2022), with preliminary findings pending. The research objective is to investigate the elements of the professional learning experiences undertaken by teachers to teach the 4Cs in the primary setting. The lens of practice architectures theory is used to identify the influence of the practice architectures on critical praxis in each site and examine how the practice arrangements enable or constrain the teaching of 4C capabilities. This research aims to offer deep insight into the practice arrangements which may enable or constrain teacher professional learning in the 4Cs. Such insight from this study may contribute to a better understanding of the practices that enable teachers to transform their practice to achieve the integration, teaching, and assessment of the 4C capabilities.

Keywords: 4Cs, communication, collaboration, creativity, critical reflection, teacher professional learning

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Authors: George Hanna Abdelmelek Henien

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Quality and safety issues are common in Ethiopia's food processing industry, which can negatively impact consumers' health and livelihoods. The country is known for its various agricultural products that are important to the economy. However, food quality and safety policies and management practices in the food processing industry have led to many health problems, foodborne illnesses and economic losses. This article aims to show the causes and consequences of food safety and quality problems in the food processing industry in Ethiopia and discuss possible solutions to solve them. One of the main reasons for food quality and safety in Ethiopia's food processing industry is the lack of adequate regulation and enforcement mechanisms. Inadequate food safety and quality policies have led to inefficiencies in food production. Additionally, the failure to monitor and enforce existing regulations has created a good opportunity for unscrupulous companies to engage in harmful practices that endanger the lives of citizens. The impact on food quality and safety is significant due to loss of life, high medical costs, and loss of consumer confidence in the food processing industry. Foodborne diseases such as diarrhoea, typhoid and cholera are common in Ethiopia, and food quality and safety play an important role in . Additionally, food recalls due to contamination or contamination often cause significant economic losses in the food processing industry. To solve these problems, the Ethiopian government began taking measures to improve food quality and safety in the food processing industry. One of the most prominent initiatives is the Ethiopian Food and Drug Administration (EFDA), which was established in 2010 to monitor and control the quality and safety of food and beverage products in the country. EFDA has implemented many measures to improve food safety, such as carrying out routine inspections, monitoring the import of food products and implementing labeling requirements. Another solution that can improve food quality and safety in the food processing industry in Ethiopia is the implementation of food safety management system (FSMS). FSMS is a set of procedures and policies designed to identify, assess and control food safety risks during food processing. Implementing a FSMS can help companies in the food processing industry identify and address potential risks before they harm consumers. Additionally, implementing an FSMS can help companies comply with current safety and security regulations. Consequently, improving food safety policy and management system in Ethiopia's food processing industry is important to protect people's health and improve the country's economy. . Addressing the root causes of food quality and safety and implementing practical solutions that can help improve the overall food safety and quality in the country, such as establishing regulatory bodies and implementing food management systems.

Keywords: food quality, food safety, policy, management system, food processing industry food traceability, industry 4.0, internet of things, block chain, best worst method, marcos

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Authors: K. A. Gladkova, N. P. Babushkina, E. Y. Bragina

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Purpose: Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is one of the major public health problems worldwide. It is clear that the immune response to M. tuberculosis infection is a relationship between inflammatory and anti-inflammatory responses in which Tumour Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α) plays key roles as a pro-inflammatory cytokine. TNF-α involved in various cell immune responses via binding to its two types of membrane-bound receptors, TNFRSF1A and TNFRSF1B. Importantly, some variants of the TNFRSF1B gene have been considered as possible markers of host susceptibility to TB. However, the possible impact of such TNF-α and its receptor genes polymorphism on TB cases in Tomsk is missing. Thus, the purpose of our study was to investigate polymorphism of TNF-α (rs1800629) and its receptor TNFRSF1B (rs652625 and rs525891) genes in population of Tomsk and to evaluate their possible association with the development of pulmonary TB. Materials and Methods: The population distribution features of genes polymorphisms were investigated and made case-control study based on group of people from Tomsk. Human blood was collected during routine patients examination at Tomsk Regional TB Dispensary. Altogether, 234 TB-positive patients (80 women, 154 men, average age is 28 years old) and 205 health-controls (153 women, 52 men, average age is 47 years old) were investigated. DNA was extracted from blood plasma by phenol-chloroform method. Genotyping was carried out by a single-nucleotide-specific real-time PCR assay. Results: First, interpopulational comparison was carried out between healthy individuals from Tomsk and available data from the 1000 Genomes project. It was found that polymorphism rs1800629 region demonstrated that Tomsk population was significantly different from Japanese (P = 0.0007), but it was similar with the following Europeans subpopulations: Italians (P = 0.052), Finns (P = 0.124) and British (P = 0.910). Polymorphism rs525891 clear demonstrated that group from Tomsk was significantly different from population of South Africa (P = 0.019). However, rs652625 demonstrated significant differences from Asian population: Chinese (P = 0.03) and Japanese (P = 0.004). Next, we have compared healthy individuals versus patients with TB. It was detected that no association between rs1800629, rs652625 polymorphisms, and positive TB cases. Importantly, AT genotype of polymorphism rs525891 was significantly associated with resistance to TB (odds ratio (OR) = 0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.41-0.9; P < 0.05). Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, the polymorphism of TNFRSF1B (rs525891) was associated with TB, while genotype AT is protective [OR = 0.61] in Tomsk population. In contrast, no significant correlation was detected between polymorphism TNF-α (rs1800629) and TNFRSF1B (rs652625) genes and alveolar TB cases among population of Tomsk. In conclusion, our data expands the molecular particularities associated with TB. The study was supported by the grant of the Russia for Basic Research #15-04-05852.

Keywords: polymorphism, tuberculosis, TNF-α, TNFRSF1B gene

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Authors: Katherine O'Grady-Bray

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For some deaf children, reading books can be a challenge. Frank Barnes School (FBS) provides guided reading time with Teachers of the Deaf, in which they read books with deaf children using a bilingual approach. The vocabulary and context of the story is explained to deaf children in BSL so they develop skills bridging English and BSL languages. However, the success of this practice is only achieved if the person is fluent in both languages. FBS piloted a scheme to convert an Oxford Reading Tree (ORT) book into an e-book that can be read using tablets. Deaf readers at FBS have access to both languages (BSL and English) during lessons and outside the classroom. The pupils receive guided reading sessions with a Teacher of the Deaf every morning, these one to one sessions give pupils the opportunity to learn how to bridge both languages e.g. how to translate English to BSL and vice versa. Generally, due to our pupils’ lack of access to incidental learning, gaining new information about the world around them is limited. This highlights the importance of quality time to scaffold their language development. In some cases, there is a shortfall of parental support at home due to poor communication skills or an unawareness of how to interact with deaf children. Some families have a limited knowledge of sign language or simply don’t have the required learning environment and strategies needed for language development with deaf children. As the majority of our pupils’ preferred language is BSL we use that to teach reading and writing English. If this is not mirrored at home, there is limited opportunity for joint reading sessions. Development of the e-Book required planning and technical development. The overall production took time as video footage needed to be shot and then edited individually for each page. There were various technical considerations such as having an appropriate background colour so not to draw attention away from the signer. Appointing a signer with the required high level of BSL was essential. The language and pace of the sign language was an important consideration as it was required to match the age and reading level of the book. When translating English text to BSL, careful consideration was given to the nonlinear nature of BSL and the differences in language structure and syntax. The e-book was produced using Apple’s ‘iBook Author’ software which allowed video footage of the signer to be embedded on pages opposite the text and illustration. This enabled BSL translation of the content of the text and inferences of the story. An interpreter was used to directly ‘voice over’ the signer rather than the actual text. The aim behind the structure and layout of the e-book is to allow parents to ‘read’ with their deaf child which helps to develop both languages. From observations, the use of e-books has given pupils confidence and motivation with their reading, developing skills bridging both BSL and English languages and more effective reading time with parents.

Keywords: bilingual book, e-book, BSL and English, bilingual e-book

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Authors: Aneal Khan, Elleine Allapitan, Desmond Koo, Katherine-Ann Piedalue, Shaneel Pathak, Utkarsh Subnis

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Background: Disease management of metabolic, genetic disorders is long-term and can be cumbersome to patients and caregivers. Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) have been a useful tool in capturing patient perspectives to help enhance treatment compliance and engagement with health care providers, reduce utilization of emergency services, and increase satisfaction with their treatment choices. Currently, however, PROMs are collected during infrequent and decontextualized clinic visits, which makes translation of patient experiences challenging over time. The GRIT study aims to evaluate a digital health journal application called Zamplo that provides a personalized health diary to record self-reported health outcomes accurately and efficiently in patients with metabolic, genetic disorders. Methods: This is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) (1:1) that assesses the efficacy of Zamplo to increase patient activation (primary outcome), improve healthcare satisfaction and confidence to manage medications (secondary outcomes), and reduce costs to the healthcare system (exploratory). Using standardized online surveys, assessments will be collected at baseline, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Outcomes will be compared between patients who were given access to the application versus those with no access. Results: Seventy-seven patients were recruited as of November 30, 2021. Recruitment for the study commenced in November 2020 with a target of n=150 patients. The accrual rate was 50% from those eligible and invited for the study, with the majority of patients having Fabry disease (n=48) and the remaining having Pompe disease and mitochondrial disease. Real-time clinical responses, such as pain, are being measured and correlated to disease-modifying therapies, supportive treatments like pain medications, and lifestyle interventions. Engagement with the application, along with compliance metrics of surveys and journal entries, are being analyzed. An interim analysis of the engagement data along with preliminary findings from this pilot RCT, and qualitative patient feedback will be presented. Conclusions: The digital self-care journal provides a unique approach to disease management, allowing patients direct access to their progress and actively participating in their care. Findings from the study can help serve the virtual care needs of patients with metabolic, genetic disorders in North America and the world over.

Keywords: eHealth, mobile health, rare disease, patient outcomes, quality of life (QoL), pain, Fabry disease, Pompe disease

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Authors: Mohammed Seyam, Faridah Othman, Ahmed El-Shafie

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The early warning of high stream flow events (HSF) and floods is an important aspect in the management of surface water and rivers systems. This process can be performed using either process-based models or data driven-based models such as artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The main goal of this study is to develop efficient AI-based model for predicting the real-time hourly stream flow (Q) and apply it as early warning tool of HSF and floods in the downstream area of the Selangor River basin, taken here as a paradigm of humid tropical rivers in Southeast Asia. The performance of AI-based models has been improved through the integration of the lag time (Lt) estimation in the modelling process. A total of 8753 patterns of Q, water level, and rainfall hourly records representing one-year period (2011) were utilized in the modelling process. Six hydrological scenarios have been arranged through hypothetical cases of input variables to investigate how the changes in RF intensity in upstream stations can lead formation of floods. The initial SF was changed for each scenario in order to include wide range of hydrological situations in this study. The performance evaluation of the developed AI-based model shows that high correlation coefficient (R) between the observed and predicted Q is achieved. The AI-based model has been successfully employed in early warning throughout the advance detection of the hydrological conditions that could lead to formations of floods and HSF, where represented by three levels of severity (i.e., alert, warning, and danger). Based on the results of the scenarios, reaching the danger level in the downstream area required high RF intensity in at least two upstream areas. According to results of applications, it can be concluded that AI-based models are beneficial tools to the local authorities for flood control and awareness.

Keywords: floods, stream flow, hydrological modelling, hydrology, artificial intelligence

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Authors: H. K. Esfahani, B. Datta

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Groundwater is one of the most important natural resources in many parts of the world; however it is widely polluted due to human activities. Currently, effective and reliable groundwater management and remediation strategies are obtained using characterization of groundwater pollution sources, where the measured data in monitoring locations are utilized to estimate the unknown pollutant source location and magnitude. However, accurately identifying characteristics of contaminant sources is a challenging task due to uncertainties in terms of predicting source flux injection, hydro-geological and geo-chemical parameters, and the concentration field measurement. Reactive transport of chemical species in contaminated groundwater systems, especially with multiple species, is a complex and highly non-linear geochemical process. Although sufficient concentration measurement data is essential to accurately identify sources characteristics, available data are often sparse and limited in quantity. Therefore, this inverse problem-solving method for characterizing unknown groundwater pollution sources is often considered ill-posed, complex and non- unique. Different methods have been utilized to identify pollution sources; however, the linked simulation-optimization approach is one effective method to obtain acceptable results under uncertainties in complex real life scenarios. With this approach, the numerical flow and contaminant transport simulation models are externally linked to an optimization algorithm, with the objective of minimizing the difference between measured concentration and estimated pollutant concentration at observation locations. Concentration measurement data are very important to accurately estimate pollution source properties; therefore, optimal design of the monitoring network is essential to gather adequate measured data at desired times and locations. Due to budget and physical restrictions, an efficient and effective approach for groundwater pollutant source characterization is to design an optimal monitoring network, especially when only inadequate and arbitrary concentration measurement data are initially available. In this approach, preliminary concentration observation data are utilized for preliminary source location, magnitude and duration of source activity identification, and these results are utilized for monitoring network design. Further, feedback information from the monitoring network is used as inputs for sequential monitoring network design, to improve the identification of unknown source characteristics. To design an effective monitoring network of observation wells, optimization and interpolation techniques are used. A simulation model should be utilized to accurately describe the aquifer properties in terms of hydro-geochemical parameters and boundary conditions. However, the simulation of the transport processes becomes complex when the pollutants are chemically reactive. Three dimensional transient flow and reactive contaminant transport process is considered. The proposed methodology uses HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 (HGCH) as the simulation model for flow and transport processes with chemically multiple reactive species. Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) is used as optimization algorithm in linked simulation-optimization methodology to identify the unknown source characteristics. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to develop a methodology to optimally design an effective monitoring network for pollution source characterization with reactive species in polluted aquifers. The performance of the developed methodology will be evaluated for an illustrative polluted aquifer sites, for example an abandoned mine site in Queensland, Australia.

Keywords: monitoring network design, source characterization, chemical reactive transport process, contaminated mine site

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Authors: Zintle Sikhunyana

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Management of public finance in many countries such as South Africa is affected by political decisions and by policies around fiscal decentralization amongst the government spheres. Economic success is said to be determined by efficient management of public finance and by the policies or strategies that are implemented to support efficient public finance management. Policymakers focus on pay attention to how economic policies have been implemented and how they are directed into ensuring stable development. This will allow policymakers to address economic challenges through the usage of fiscal policy parameters that are linked to the achieved rate of economic growth and development. Efficient public finance management reduces the likelihood of corruption and corruption is said to have negative effects on economic growth and development. Corruption in public finance refers to an act of using funds for personal benefits. To achieve macroeconomic objectives, governments make use of government expenditure and government expenditure is financed through tax revenue. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the potential impact of public finance management on economic growth and development in South Africa. The secondary data obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and World Bank for 1980- 2020 has been utilized to achieve the research objectives. To test the impact of public finance management on economic growth and development, the study will use Seeming Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) Modelling that allows researchers to model multiple equations with interdependent variables. The advantages of using SUR are that it efficiently allows estimation of relationships between variables by combining information on different equations and SUR test restrictions that involve parameters in different equations. The findings have shown that there is a positive relationship between efficient public finance management and economic growth/development. The findings also show that efficient public finance management has an indirect positive impact on economic growth and development. Corruption has a negative impact on economic growth and development. It results in an efficient allocation of government resources and thereby improves economic growth and development. The study recommends that governments who aim to stimulate economic growth and development should target and strengthen public finance management policies or strategies.

Keywords: corruption, economic growth, economic development, public finance management, fiscal decentralization

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Authors: Bharti Singh, Shri K. Singh

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Child malnutrition is a multifaceted issue that transcends geographical boundaries. Malnutrition not only stunts physical growth but also leads to a spectrum of morbidities and child mortality. It is one of the leading causes of death (~50 %) among children under age five. Despite economic progress and advancements in healthcare, child malnutrition remains a formidable challenge for India. The objective is to investigate the impact of women's empowerment on child nutrition outcomes in India from 2006 to 2021. A composite index of women's empowerment was constructed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), a rigorous technique that validates the measurement model by assessing how well-observed variables represent latent constructs. This approach ensures the reliability and validity of the empowerment index. Secondly, kernel density plots were utilised to visualise the distribution of key nutritional indicators, such as stunting, wasting, and overweight. These plots offer insights into the shape and spread of data distributions, aiding in understanding the prevalence and severity of malnutrition. Thirdly, linear polynomial graphs were employed to analyse how nutritional parameters evolved with the child's age. This technique enables the visualisation of trends and patterns over time, allowing for a deeper understanding of nutritional dynamics during different stages of childhood. Lastly, multilevel analysis was conducted to identify vulnerable levels, including State-level, PSU-level, and household-level factors impacting undernutrition. This approach accounts for hierarchical data structures and allows for the examination of factors at multiple levels, providing a comprehensive understanding of the determinants of child malnutrition. Overall, the utilisation of these statistical methodologies enhances the transparency and replicability of the study by providing clear and robust analytical frameworks for data analysis and interpretation. Our study reveals that NFHS-4 and NFHS-5 exhibit an equal density of severely stunted cases. NFHS-5 indicates a limited decline in wasting among children aged five, while the density of severely wasted children remains consistent across NFHS-3, 4, and 5. In 2019-21, women with higher empowerment had a lower risk of their children being undernourished (Regression coefficient= -0.10***; Confidence Interval [-0.18, -0.04]). Gender dynamics also play a significant role, with male children exhibiting a higher susceptibility to undernourishment. Multilevel analysis suggests household-level vulnerability (intra-class correlation=0.21), highlighting the need to address child undernutrition at the household level.

Keywords: child nutrition, India, NFHS, women’s empowerment

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Authors: Seada Hussen, Frie Ayalew

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Integrating different energy resources, like solar PV and hydro, is used to ensure reliable power to rural communities like Hara village in Ethiopia. Hybrid power system offers power supply for rural villages by providing an alternative supply for the intermittent nature of renewable energy resources. The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources is a challenge to electrifying rural communities in a sustainable manner with solar resources. Major rural villages in Ethiopia are suffering from a lack of electrification, that cause our people to suffer deforestation, travel for long distance to fetch water, and lack good services like clinic and school sufficiently. The main objective of this project is to provide a balanced, stable, reliable supply for Hara village, Ethiopia using solar power with a pumped hydro energy storage system. The design of this project starts by collecting data from villages and taking solar irradiance data from NASA. In addition to this, geographical arrangement and location are also taken into consideration. After collecting this, all data analysis and cost estimation or optimal sizing of the system and comparison of solar with pumped hydro and solar with battery storage system is done using Homer Software. And since solar power only works in the daytime and pumped hydro works at night time and also at night and morning, both load will share to cover the load demand; this need controller designed to control multiple switch and scheduling in this project fuzzy logic controller is used to control this scenario. The result of the simulation shows that solar with pumped hydro energy storage system achieves good results than with a battery storage system since the comparison is done considering storage reliability, cost, storage capacity, life span, and efficiency.

Keywords: pumped hydro storage, solar energy, solar PV, battery energy storage, fuzzy logic controller

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Authors: Abidemi C. Adegboye, Samuel Iweriebor

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The primary link between financial institutions and economic performance is the provision of resources by these institutions to businesses in order to drive enterprise expansion, sustainability, and development. In this study, the role of access to finance in driving innovations and productivity in Nigerian SMEs is investigated using the World Bank Enterprise Survey (ES) dataset. Innovation is defined based on the ES analysis using five compositions including product, method, organisational, use of foreign-licensed technology, and spending on R&D. The study considers finance in terms of source in meeting investment needs and in terms of access. Moreover, finance access is categorized as external and internal to a firm with each having different implications. The research methodology adopted a survey analysis based on the 2014 World Bank Enterprise Survey of 19 states in Nigeria. The survey comprised over 10,000 manufacturing and services firms, both at the small scale and medium scale levels. The logit estimation technique is used to estimate the relationships in the study. The results from the empirical analysis show that in general, access to finance drives SME innovation in Nigeria. In particular, ease of accessing bank loans and credit is shown to be the strongest positive force in driving all types of innovation among SMEs in Nigeria. In the same vein, the type of finance source for investment matters in terms of how it affects innovation: it is shown that both internal and external sources improve investment in product, process, and organisational innovation, but only external financing has effect on R&D spending and use of foreign licensed technology. Overall spending on R&D is only driven by access to external finance by the SMEs. For productivity, the results show that while structure of financing investment improves productivity, increased access to finance may actually lead to productivity decline among SMEs in Nigeria. There is a need for the financial system to evolve structures to increase fund availability to SMEs in Nigeria, especially for the purpose of innovation investment.

Keywords: access to finance, financing investment, innovation, productivity, SMEs

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Authors: Bougema Theodore Ntenkeh, Chi-bikom Barbara Kyien

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The reduction of poverty and hunger sits at the heart of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and are the first two of the Sustainable Development Goals. The World Food Day celebrated on the 16th of October every year, highlights the need for people to have physical and economic access at all times to enough nutritious and safe food to live a healthy and active life; while the world poverty day celebrated on the 17th of October is an opportunity to acknowledge the struggle of people living in poverty, a chance for them to make their concerns heard, and for the community to recognize and support poor people in their fight against poverty. The association between household food security and poverty reduction is not only sparse in Cameroon but mostly qualitative. The paper therefore investigates the effect of household food security on poverty reduction in Cameroon quantitatively using data from the Cameroon Household Consumption Survey collected by the Government Statistics Office. The methodology employed five indicators of household food security using the Multiple Correspondence Analysis and poverty is captured as a dummy variable. Using a control function technique, with pre and post estimation test for robustness, the study postulates that household food security has a positive and significant effect on poverty reduction in Cameroon. A unit increase in the food security score reduces the probability of the household being poor by 31.8%, and this effect is statistically significant at 1%. The result further illustrates that the age of the household head and household size increases household poverty while households residing in urban areas are significantly less poor. The paper therefore recommends that households should diversify their food intake to enhance an effective supply of labour in the job market as a strategy to reduce household poverty. Furthermore, family planning methods should be encouraged as a strategy to reduce birth rate for an equitable distribution of household resources including food while the government of Cameroon should also develop the rural areas given that trend in urbanization are associated with the concentration of productive economic activities, leading to increase household income, increased household food security and poverty reduction.

Keywords: food security, poverty reduction, SDGs, Cameroon

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Authors: Sehrish Qayyum

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Active military power contention is shifting to economic and cyberwar to retain hegemony. Attuned Pestle analysis confirms that structural stress of hegemon’s power loss drives a containment approach towards caging actions. Ongoing diplomatic, asymmetric, proxy and direct wars are increasing stress hegemon’s power retention due to tangled military and economic alliances. It creates the condition of catalepsy with defective reflexive control which affects the core warfare operations. When one’s own power is doubted it gives power to one’s own doubt to ruin all planning either done with superlative cost-benefit analysis. Strategically calculated estimation of Hegemon’s power game since the early WWI to WWII, WWII-to Cold War and then to the current era in three chronological periods exposits that Thucydides’s trap became the reason for war broke out. Thirst for power is the demise of imagination and cooperation for better sense to prevail instead it drives ashes to dust. Pestle analysis is a wide array of evaluation from political and economic to legal dimensions of the state matters. It helps to develop the Pacification and Security Policy Plan (PSPP) to avoid hegemon’s structural stress of power loss in fact, in turn, creates an alliance with maximum amicable outputs. PSPP may serve to regulate and pause the hurricane of power clashes. PSPP along with a strategic work plan is based on Pestle analysis to deal with any conceivable war condition and approach for saving international peace. Getting tangled into self-imposed epistemic dilemmas results in regret that becomes the only option of performance. It is a generic application of probability tests to find the best possible options and conditions to develop PSPP for any adversity possible so far. Innovation in expertise begets innovation in planning and action-plan to serve as a rheostat approach to deal with any plausible power clash.

Keywords: alliance, hegemon, pestle analysis, pacification and security policy plan, security

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Authors: Lina Wu, Jia Liu, Ye Li

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The goal of this project is to investigate constant properties (called the Liouville-type Problem) for a p-stable map as a local or global minimum of a p-energy functional where the domain is a Euclidean space and the target space is a closed half-ellipsoid. The First and Second Variation Formulas for a p-energy functional has been applied in the Calculus Variation Method as computation techniques. Stokes’ Theorem, Cauchy-Schwarz Inequality, Hardy-Sobolev type Inequalities, and the Bochner Formula as estimation techniques have been used to estimate the lower bound and the upper bound of the derived p-Harmonic Stability Inequality. One challenging point in this project is to construct a family of variation maps such that the images of variation maps must be guaranteed in a closed half-ellipsoid. The other challenging point is to find a contradiction between the lower bound and the upper bound in an analysis of p-Harmonic Stability Inequality when a p-energy minimizing map is not constant. Therefore, the possibility of a non-constant p-energy minimizing map has been ruled out and the constant property for a p-energy minimizing map has been obtained. Our research finding is to explore the constant property for a p-stable map from a Euclidean space into a closed half-ellipsoid in a certain range of p. The certain range of p is determined by the dimension values of a Euclidean space (the domain) and an ellipsoid (the target space). The certain range of p is also bounded by the curvature values on an ellipsoid (that is, the ratio of the longest axis to the shortest axis). Regarding Liouville-type results for a p-stable map, our research finding on an ellipsoid is a generalization of mathematicians’ results on a sphere. Our result is also an extension of mathematicians’ Liouville-type results from a special ellipsoid with only one parameter to any ellipsoid with (n+1) parameters in the general setting.

Keywords: Bochner formula, Calculus Stokes' Theorem, Cauchy-Schwarz Inequality, first and second variation formulas, Liouville-type problem, p-harmonic map

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Authors: Tarcisio F. Leao, Bruno Utiyama, Jeison Fonseca, Eduardo Bock, Aron Andrade

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This work presents a blood flow estimator based in Look-Up-Table (LUT) for control of Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD). This device has been used as bridge to transplantation or as destination therapy to treat patients with heart failure (HF). Destination Therapy application requires a high performance LVAD; thus, a stable control is important to keep adequate interaction between heart and device. LVAD control provides an adequate cardiac output while sustaining an appropriate flow and pressure blood perfusion, also described as physiologic control. Because thrombus formation and system reliability reduction, sensors are not desirable to measure these variables (flow and pressure blood). To achieve this, control systems have been researched to estimate blood flow. LVAD used in the study is composed by blood centrifugal pump, control, and power supply. This technique used pump and actuator (motor) parameters of LVAD, such as speed and electric current. Estimator relates electromechanical torque (motor or actuator) and hydraulic power (blood pump) via LUT. An in vitro Mock Loop was used to evaluate deviations between blood flow estimated and actual. A solution with glycerin (50%) and water was used to simulate the blood viscosity with hematocrit 45%. Tests were carried out with variation hematocrit: 25%, 45% and 58% of hematocrit, or 40%, 50% and 60% of glycerin in water solution, respectively. Test with bovine blood was carried out (42% hematocrit). Mock Loop is composed: reservoir, tubes, pressure and flow sensors, and fluid (or blood), beyond LVAD. Estimator based in LUT is patented, number BR1020160068363, in Brazil. Mean deviation is 0.23 ± 0.07 L/min for mean flow estimated. Larger mean deviation was 0.5 L/min considering hematocrit variation. This estimator achieved deviation adequate for physiologic control implementation. Future works will evaluate flow estimation performance in control system of LVAD.

Keywords: blood pump, flow estimator, left ventricular assist device, look-up-table

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Rizwan Ahmad, Munawar Raza Kazmi, Awais Habib

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Climate change and crop production are intrinsically associated with each other. Therefore, this research study is designed to assess the impact of climate change on pulses production in Southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province of Pakistan. Two pulses (i.e. chickpea and mung bean) were selected for this research study with respect to climate change. Climatic variables such as temperature, humidity and precipitation along with pulses production and area under cultivation of pulses were encompassed as the major variables of this study. Secondary data of climatic variables and crop variables for the period of thirty four years (1986-2020) were obtained from Pakistan Metrological Department and Agriculture Statistics of KP respectively. Panel data set of chickpea and mung bean crops was estimated separately. The analysis validate that both data sets were a balanced panel data. The Hausman specification test was run separately for both the panel data sets whose findings had suggested the fixed effect model can be deemed as an appropriate model for chickpea panel data, however random effect model was appropriate for estimation of the panel data of mung bean. Major findings confirm that maximum temperature is statistically significant for the chickpea yield. This implies if maximum temperature increases by 1 0C, it can enhance the chickpea yield by 0.0463 units. However, the impact of precipitation was reported insignificant. Furthermore, the humidity was statistically significant and has a positive association with chickpea yield. In case of mung bean the minimum temperature was significantly contributing in the yield of mung bean. This study concludes that temperature and humidity can significantly contribute to enhance the pulses yield. It is recommended that capacity building of pulses growers may be made to adapt the climate change strategies. Moreover, government may ensure the availability of climate change resistant varieties of pulses to encourage the pulses cultivation.

Keywords: climate change, pulses productivity, agriculture, Pakistan

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Authors: Kuo-Cheng Liu

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In the perceptual image coding, the objective is to shape the coding distortion such that the amplitude of distortion does not exceed the error visibility threshold, or to remove perceptually redundant signals from the image. While most researches focus on color image coding, the perceptual-based quantizer developed for luminance signals are always directly applied to chrominance signals such that the color image compression methods are inefficient. In this paper, the internal generative mechanism is integrated into the design of a color image compression method. The internal generative mechanism working model based on the structure-based spatial masking is used to assess the subjective distortion visibility thresholds that are visually consistent to human eyes better. The estimation method of structure-based distortion visibility thresholds for color components is further presented in a locally adaptive way to design quantization process in the wavelet color image compression scheme. Since the lowest subband coefficient matrix of images in the wavelet domain preserves the local property of images in the spatial domain, the error visibility threshold inherent in each coefficient of the lowest subband for each color component is estimated by using the proposed spatial error visibility threshold assessment. The threshold inherent in each coefficient of other subbands for each color component is then estimated in a local adaptive fashion based on the distortion energy allocation. By considering that the error visibility thresholds are estimated using predicting and reconstructed signals of the color image, the coding scheme incorporated with locally adaptive perceptual color quantizer does not require side information. Experimental results show that the entropies of three color components obtained by using proposed IGM-based color image compression scheme are lower than that obtained by using the existing color image compression method at perceptually lossless visual quality.

Keywords: internal generative mechanism, structure-based spatial masking, visibility threshold, wavelet domain

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Authors: Teodora Vukovic, Christoph Hottiger, Noah Bubenhofer

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The development of VIAN-DH aims at bridging two linguistic approaches: conversation analysis/interactional linguistics (IL), so far a dominantly qualitative field, and computational/corpus linguistics and its quantitative and automated methods. Contemporary IL investigates the systematic organization of conversations and interactions composed of speech, gaze, gestures, and body positioning, among others. These highly integrated multimodal behaviour is analysed based on video data aimed at uncovering so called “multimodal gestalts”, patterns of linguistic and embodied conduct that reoccur in specific sequential positions employed for specific purposes. Multimodal analyses (and other disciplines using videos) are so far dependent on time and resource intensive processes of manual transcription of each component from video materials. Automating these tasks requires advanced programming skills, which is often not in the scope of IL. Moreover, the use of different tools makes the integration and analysis of different formats challenging. Consequently, IL research often deals with relatively small samples of annotated data which are suitable for qualitative analysis but not enough for making generalized empirical claims derived quantitatively. VIAN-DH aims to create a workspace where many annotation layers required for the multimodal analysis of videos can be created, processed, and correlated in one platform. VIAN-DH will provide a graphical interface that operates state-of-the-art tools for automating parts of the data processing. The integration of tools that already exist in computational linguistics and computer vision, facilitates data processing for researchers lacking programming skills, speeds up the overall research process, and enables the processing of large amounts of data. The main features to be introduced are automatic speech recognition for the transcription of language, automatic image recognition for extraction of gestures and other visual cues, as well as grammatical annotation for adding morphological and syntactic information to the verbal content. In the ongoing instance of VIAN-DH, we focus on gesture extraction (pointing gestures, in particular), making use of existing models created for sign language and adapting them for this specific purpose. In order to view and search the data, VIAN-DH will provide a unified format and enable the import of the main existing formats of annotated video data and the export to other formats used in the field, while integrating different data source formats in a way that they can be combined in research. VIAN-DH will adapt querying methods from corpus linguistics to enable parallel search of many annotation levels, combining token-level and chronological search for various types of data. VIAN-DH strives to bring crucial and potentially revolutionary innovation to the field of IL, (that can also extend to other fields using video materials). It will allow the processing of large amounts of data automatically and, the implementation of quantitative analyses, combining it with the qualitative approach. It will facilitate the investigation of correlations between linguistic patterns (lexical or grammatical) with conversational aspects (turn-taking or gestures). Users will be able to automatically transcribe and annotate visual, spoken and grammatical information from videos, and to correlate those different levels and perform queries and analyses.

Keywords: multimodal analysis, corpus linguistics, computational linguistics, image recognition, speech recognition

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Authors: Eman Abdullah Morsi, Hend Okasha, Heba Abdel Hady, Mortada El-Sayed, Mohamed Abbas Shemis

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Context: Linum usitatissimum (Linn), known as Flaxseed, is one of the most important medicinal plants traditionally used for various health as nutritional purposes. Objective: Estimation of total phenolic and flavonoid contents as well as evaluate the antioxidant using α, α-diphenyl-β-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), 2-2'azinobis (3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulphonic acid (ABTS) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) assay and investigation of anti-inflammatory by Bovine serum albumin (BSA) and anticancer activities of hepatocellular carcinoma cell line (HepG2) and breast cancer cell line (MCF7) have been applied on hexane, ethyl acetate, n-butanol and methanol extracts and also, fractions of methonal extract (hexane, ethyl acetate and n-butanol). Materials and Methods: Phenolic and flavonoid contents were detected using spectrophotometric and colorimetric assays. Antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activities were estimated in-vitro. Anticancer activity of extracts and fractions of methanolic extract were tested on (HepG2) and (MCF7). Results: Methanolic extract and its ethyl acetate fraction contain higher contents of total phenols and flavonoids. In addition, methanolic extract had higher antioxidant activity. Butanolic and ethyl acetate fractions yielded higher percent of inhibition of protein denaturation. Meanwhile, ethyl acetate fraction and methanolic extract had anticancer activity against HepG2 and MCF7 (IC50=60 ± 0.24 and 29.4 ± 0.12µg.mL⁻¹) and (IC50=94.7 ± 0.21 and 227 ± 0.48µg.mL⁻¹), respectively. In Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis, methanolic extract has 32 compounds, whereas; ethyl acetate and butanol fractions contain 40 and 36 compounds, respectively. Conclusion: Flaxseed contains totally different biologically active compounds that have been found to possess good variable activities, which can protect human body against several diseases.

Keywords: phenolic content, flavonoid content, HepG2, MCF7, hemolysis-assay, flaxseed

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Rahel Birhane Eshetu

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This research investigates the complex landscape of project management practices and operational challenges in conflict-affected areas, with a specific focus on Kewot Woreda in the North Shewa Zone of the Amhara region in Ethiopia. The study aims to identify essential project management methodologies, the significant operational hurdles faced, and the adaptive strategies employed by project managers in these challenging environments. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the research combines qualitative and quantitative data collection. Initially, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to establish a theoretical framework. This was followed by the administration of questionnaires to gather empirical data, which was then analyzed using statistical software. This sequential approach ensures a robust understanding of the context and challenges faced by project managers. The findings reveal that project managers in conflict zones encounter a range of escalating challenges. Initially, they must contend with immediate security threats and the presence of displaced populations, which significantly disrupt project initiation and execution. As projects progress, additional challenges arise, including limited access to essential resources and environmental disruptions such as natural disasters. These factors exacerbate the operational difficulties that project managers must navigate. In response to these challenges, the study highlights the necessity for project managers to implement formal project plans while simultaneously adopting adaptive strategies that evolve over time. Key adaptive strategies identified include flexible risk management frameworks, change management practices, and enhanced stakeholder engagement approaches. These strategies are crucial for maintaining project momentum and ensuring that objectives are met despite the unpredictable nature of conflict environments. The research emphasizes that structured scope management, clear documentation, and thorough requirements analysis are vital components for effectively navigating the complexities inherent in conflict-affected regions. However, the ongoing threats and logistical barriers necessitate a continuous adjustment to project management methodologies. This adaptability is not only essential for the immediate success of projects but also for fostering long-term resilience within the community. Concluding, the study offers actionable recommendations aimed at improving project management practices in conflict zones. These include the adoption of adaptive frameworks specifically tailored to the unique conditions of conflict environments and targeted training for project managers. Such training should focus on equipping managers with the skills to better address the dynamic challenges presented by conflict situations. The insights gained from this research contribute significantly to the broader field of project management, providing a practical guide for practitioners operating in high-risk areas. By emphasizing sustainable and resilient project outcomes, this study underscores the importance of adaptive management strategies in ensuring the success of projects in conflict-affected regions. The findings serve not only to enhance the understanding of project management practices in Kewot Woreda but also to inform future research and practice in similar contexts, ultimately aiming to promote stability and development in areas beset by conflict.

Keywords: project management practices, operational challenges, conflict zones, adaptive strategies

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Authors: Anne Schattel, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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Trajectory planning for deep space missions has become a recent topic of great interest. Flying to space objects like asteroids provides two main challenges. One is to find rare earth elements, the other to gain scientific knowledge of the origin of the world. Due to the enormous spatial distances such explorer missions have to be performed unmanned and autonomously. The mathematical field of optimization and optimal control can be used to realize autonomous missions while protecting recourses and making them safer. The resulting algorithms may be applied to other, earth-bound applications like e.g. deep sea navigation and autonomous driving as well. The project KaNaRiA ('Kognitionsbasierte, autonome Navigation am Beispiel des Ressourcenabbaus im All') investigates the possibilities of cognitive autonomous navigation on the example of an asteroid mining mission, including the cruise phase and approach as well as the asteroid rendezvous, landing and surface exploration. To verify and test all methods an interactive, real-time capable simulation using virtual reality is developed under KaNaRiA. This paper focuses on the specific challenge of the guidance during the cruise phase of the spacecraft, i.e. trajectory optimization and optimal control, including first solutions and results. In principle there exist two ways to solve optimal control problems (OCPs), the so called indirect and direct methods. The indirect methods are being studied since several decades and their usage needs advanced skills regarding optimal control theory. The main idea of direct approaches, also known as transcription techniques, is to transform the infinite-dimensional OCP into a finite-dimensional non-linear optimization problem (NLP) via discretization of states and controls. These direct methods are applied in this paper. The resulting high dimensional NLP with constraints can be solved efficiently by special NLP methods, e.g. sequential quadratic programming (SQP) or interior point methods (IP). The movement of the spacecraft due to gravitational influences of the sun and other planets, as well as the thrust commands, is described through ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The competitive mission aims like short flight times and low energy consumption are considered by using a multi-criteria objective function. The resulting non-linear high-dimensional optimization problems are solved by using the software package WORHP ('We Optimize Really Huge Problems'), a software routine combining SQP at an outer level and IP to solve underlying quadratic subproblems. An application-adapted model of impulsive thrusting, as well as a model of an electrically powered spacecraft propulsion system, is introduced. Different priorities and possibilities of a space mission regarding energy cost and flight time duration are investigated by choosing different weighting factors for the multi-criteria objective function. Varying mission trajectories are analyzed and compared, both aiming at different destination asteroids and using different propulsion systems. For the transcription, the robust method of full discretization is used. The results strengthen the need for trajectory optimization as a foundation for autonomous decision making during deep space missions. Simultaneously they show the enormous increase in possibilities for flight maneuvers by being able to consider different and opposite mission objectives.

Keywords: deep space navigation, guidance, multi-objective, non-linear optimization, optimal control, trajectory planning.

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Authors: Alexandra McKinzie, Lucy Brown, Sarah Komanapalli, Sarah Swiezy, Caitlin Bernard

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Background: While 25% of US women will seek an abortion before age 45, targeted laws have led to a decline in abortion clinics, subsequently leaving 96% of Indiana counties and the 70% of Hoosier women residing in these counties without access to services they desperately need.1,2 Despite the need for a physician workforce that is educated and able to provide full-spectrum reproductive health care, few medical institutions have a standardized family planning and abortion pre-clinical curriculum. Methods: A Qualtrics survey was disseminated to students from Indiana University School of Medicine (IUSM) to evaluate (1) student interest in curriculum reform, (2) self-assessed preparedness to counsel on contraceptive and pregnancy options, and (3) preferred modality of instruction for family planning and abortion topics. Based on the pre-panel survey feedback, a case-based pregnancy options counseling panel will be implemented in the students’ pre-clinical, didactic course Endocrine, Reproductive, Musculoskeletal, Dermatologic Systems (ERMD) in February 2022. A Qualtrics post-panel survey will be disseminated to evaluate students’ perceived efficacy and quality of the panel, as well as their self-assessed preparedness to counsel on pregnancy options. Results: Participants in the pre-panel survey (n=303) were primarily female (61.72%) and White (74.43%). Across all class levels, many (60.80%) students expected to learn about family planning and abortion in their pre-clinical education. While most (84-88%) participants felt prepared to counsel about common, non-controversial pharmacotherapies (e.g. beta-blockers and diuretics), only 20% of students felt prepared to counsel on abortion options. Overall, 85.67% of students believed that IUSM should enhance its reproductive health coverage in pre-clinical, didactic courses. Traditional lectures, panels, and direct clinical exposure were the most popular instructional modalities. Expected Results: The authors predict that following the panel, students will indicate improved confidence in providing pregnancy options counseling. Additionally, students will provide constructive feedback on the structure and content of the panel for incorporation into future years’ curriculum. Conclusions: IUSM students overwhelmingly expressed interest in expanding their pre-clinical curriculum’s coverage of family planning and abortion topics. To specifically improve students’ self-assessed preparedness to provide pregnancy options counseling and address students’ self-cited learning gaps, a case-based provider panel session will be implemented in response to students’ preferred modality feedback.

Keywords: options counseling, family planning, abortion, curriculum reform, case-based panel

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Authors: Mariana Damova, Stanko Stankov, Emil Stoyanov, Hristo Hristov, Hermand Pessek, Plamen Chernev

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We will present one of the first use cases on the DestinE platform, a joint initiative of the European Commission, European Space Agency and EUMETSAT, providing access to global earth observation, meteorological and statistical data, and emphasize the good practice of intergovernmental agencies acting in concert. Further, we will discuss the importance of space-bound disruptive solutions for improving the balance between the ever-increasing water-related disasters coming from climate change and minimizing their economic and societal impact. The use case focuses on forecasting floods and estimating the impact of flood events on the urban environment and the ecosystems in the affected areas with the purpose of helping municipal decision-makers to analyze and plan resource needs and to forge human-environment relationships by providing farmers with insightful information for improving their agricultural productivity. For the forecast, we will adopt an EO4AI method of our platform ISME-HYDRO, in which we employ a pipeline of neural networks applied to in-situ measurements and satellite data of meteorological factors influencing the hydrological and hydrodynamic status of rivers and dams, such as precipitations, soil moisture, vegetation index, snow cover to model flood events and their span. ISME-HYDRO platform is an e-infrastructure for water resources management based on linked data, extended with further intelligence that generates forecasts with the method described above, throws alerts, formulates queries, provides superior interactivity and drives communication with the users. It provides synchronized visualization of table views, graphviews and interactive maps. It will be federated with the DestinE platform.

Keywords: flood simulation, AI, Earth observation, e-Infrastructure, flood forecasting, flood areas localization, response planning, resource estimation

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Authors: Yannay Casas-Ledon, Cinthya A. Andrade, Camila E. Salazar, Mauricio Aguayo

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The sustainable management of available natural resources is a crucial question for policy-makers, economists, and the research community. Among several, land constitutes one of the most critical resources, which is being intensively appropriated by human activities producing ecological stresses and reducing ecosystem services. In this context, net primary production (NPP) has been considered as a feasible proxy indicator for estimating the impacts of human interventions on land-uses intensity. Accordingly, the human appropriation of NPP (HANPP) was calculated for the south-central regions of Chile between 2007 and 2014. The HANPP was defined as the difference between the potential NPP of the naturally produced vegetation (NPP0, i.e., the vegetation that would exist without any human interferences) and the NPP remaining in the field after harvest (NPPeco), expressed in gC/m² yr. Other NPP flows taken into account in HANPP estimation were the harvested (NPPh) and the losses of NPP through land conversion (NPPluc). The ArcGIS 10.4 software was used for assessing the spatial and temporal HANPP changes. The differentiation of HANPP as % of NPP0 was estimated by each landcover type taken in 2007 and 2014 as the reference years. The spatial results depicted a negative impact on land use efficiency during 2007 and 2014, showing negative HANPP changes for the whole region. The harvest and biomass losses through land conversion components are the leading causes of loss of land-use efficiency. Furthermore, the study depicted higher HANPP in 2014 than in 2007, representing 50% of NPP0 for all landcover classes concerning 2007. This performance was mainly related to the higher volume of harvested biomass for agriculture. In consequence, the cropland depicted the high HANPP followed by plantation. This performance highlights the strong positive correlation between the economic activities developed into the region. This finding constitutes the base for a better understanding of the main driving force influencing biomass productivity and a powerful metric for supporting the sustainable management of land use.

Keywords: human appropriation, land-use changes, land-use impact, net primary productivity

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Authors: Pranjal Srivastava, Piyali Sengupta

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The performance of marine drilling risers is crucial in the offshore oil and gas industry to ensure safe drilling operation with minimum downtime. Experimental investigations on marine drilling risers are limited in the literature owing to the expensive and exhaustive test setup required to replicate the realistic riser model and ocean environment in the laboratory. Therefore, this study presents an analytical model of marine drilling riser for determining its fragility under ocean environmental loading. In this study, the marine drilling riser is idealized as a continuous beam having a concentric circular cross-section. Hydrodynamic loading acting on the marine drilling riser is determined by Morison’s equations. By considering the equilibrium of forces on the marine drilling riser for the connected and normal drilling conditions, the governing partial differential equations in terms of independent variables z (depth) and t (time) are derived. Subsequently, the Runge Kutta method and Finite Difference Method are employed for solving the partial differential equations arising from the analytical model. The proposed analytical approach is successfully validated with respect to the experimental results from the literature. From the dynamic analysis results of the proposed analytical approach, the critical design parameters peak displacements, upper and lower flex joint rotations and von Mises stresses of marine drilling risers are determined. An extensive parametric study is conducted to explore the effects of top tension, drilling depth, ocean current speed and platform drift on the critical design parameters of the marine drilling riser. Thereafter, incremental dynamic analysis is performed to derive the fragility functions of shallow water and deep-water marine drilling risers under ocean environmental loading. The proposed methodology can also be adopted for downtime estimation of marine drilling risers incorporating the ranges of uncertainties associated with the ocean environment, especially at deep and ultra-deepwater.

Keywords: drilling riser, marine, analytical model, fragility

Procedia PDF Downloads 147