Search results for: financial market prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7752

Search results for: financial market prediction

5082 Customer Involvement in the Development of New Sustainable Products: A Review of the Literature

Authors: Natalia Moreira, Trevor Wood-Harper

Abstract:

The acceptance of sustainable products by the final consumer is still one of the challenges of the industry, which constantly seeks alternative approaches to successfully be accepted in the global market. A large set of methods and approaches have been discussed and analysed throughout the literature. Considering the current need for sustainable development and the current pace of consumption, the need for a combined solution towards the development of new products became clear, forcing researchers in product development to propose alternatives to the previous standard product development models. This paper presents, through a systemic analysis of the literature on product development, eco-design and consumer involvement, a set of alternatives regarding consumer involvement towards the development of sustainable products and how these approaches could help improve the sustainable industry’s establishment in the general market. The initial findings of the research show that the understanding of the benefits of sustainable behaviour lead to a more conscious acquisition and eventually to the implementation of sustainable change in the consumer. Thus this paper is the initial approach towards the development of new sustainable products using the fashion industry as an example of practical implementation and acceptance by the consumers. By comparing the existing literature and critically analysing it this paper concluded that the consumer involvement is strategic to improve the general understanding of sustainability and its features. The use of consumers and communities has been studied since the early 90s in order to exemplify uses and to guarantee a fast comprehension. The analysis done also includes the importance of this approach for the increase of innovation and ground breaking developments, thus requiring further research and practical implementation in order to better understand the implications and limitations of this methodology.

Keywords: consumer involvement, products development, sustainability, eco-design

Procedia PDF Downloads 594
5081 Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in Landslides Prediction

Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne

Abstract:

Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.

Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model

Procedia PDF Downloads 384
5080 Quality Approaches for Mass-Produced Fashion: A Study in Malaysian Garment Manufacturing

Authors: N. J. M. Yusof, T. Sabir, J. McLoughlin

Abstract:

Garment manufacturing industry involves sequential processes that are subjected to uncontrollable variations. The industry depends on the skill of labour in handling the varieties of fabrics and accessories, machines, and also a complicated sewing operation. Due to these reasons, garment manufacturers created systems to monitor and control the product’s quality regularly by conducting quality approaches to minimize variation. The aims of this research were to ascertain the quality approaches deployed by Malaysian garment manufacturers in three key areas-quality systems and tools; quality control and types of inspection; sampling procedures chosen for garment inspection. The focus of this research also aimed to distinguish quality approaches used by companies that supplied the finished garments to both domestic and international markets. The feedback from each of company’s representatives was obtained using the online survey, which comprised of five sections and 44 questions on the organizational profile and quality approaches used in the garment industry. The results revealed that almost all companies had established their own mechanism of process control by conducting a series of quality inspection for daily production either it was formally been set up or vice versa. Quality inspection was the predominant quality control activity in the garment manufacturing and the level of complexity of these activities was substantially dictated by the customers. AQL-based sampling was utilized by companies dealing with the export market, whilst almost all the companies that only concentrated on the domestic market were comfortable using their own sampling procedures for garment inspection. This research provides an insight into the implementation of quality approaches that were perceived as important and useful in the garment manufacturing sector, which is truly labour-intensive.

Keywords: garment manufacturing, quality approaches, quality control, inspection, Acceptance Quality Limit (AQL), sampling

Procedia PDF Downloads 444
5079 Predicting Food Waste and Losses Reduction for Fresh Products in Modified Atmosphere Packaging

Authors: Matar Celine, Gaucel Sebastien, Gontard Nathalie, Guilbert Stephane, Guillard Valerie

Abstract:

To increase the very short shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetable, Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) allows an optimal atmosphere composition to be maintained around the product and thus prevent its decay. This technology relies on the modification of internal packaging atmosphere due to equilibrium between production/consumption of gases by the respiring product and gas permeation through the packaging material. While, to the best of our knowledge, benefit of MAP for fresh fruits and vegetable has been widely demonstrated in the literature, its effect on shelf life increase has never been quantified and formalized in a clear and simple manner leading difficult to anticipate its economic and environmental benefit, notably through the decrease of food losses. Mathematical modelling of mass transfers in the food/packaging system is the basis for a better design and dimensioning of the food packaging system. But up to now, existing models did not permit to estimate food quality nor shelf life gain reached by using MAP. However, shelf life prediction is an indispensable prerequisite for quantifying the effect of MAP on food losses reduction. The objective of this work is to propose an innovative approach to predict shelf life of MAP food product and then to link it to a reduction of food losses and wastes. In this purpose, a ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was developed by coupling a new predictive deterioration model (based on visual surface prediction of deterioration encompassing colour, texture and spoilage development) with models of the literature for respiration and permeation. A major input of this modelling tool is the maximal percentage of deterioration (MAD) which was assessed from dedicated consumers’ studies. Strawberries of the variety Charlotte were selected as the model food for its high perishability, high respiration rate; 50-100 ml CO₂/h/kg produced at 20°C, allowing it to be a good representative of challenging post-harvest storage. A value of 13% was determined as a limit of acceptability for the consumers, permitting to define products’ shelf life. The ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was validated in isothermal conditions (5, 10 and 20°C) and in dynamic temperature conditions mimicking commercial post-harvest storage of strawberries. RMSE values were systematically lower than 3% for respectively, O₂, CO₂ and deterioration profiles as a function of time confirming the goodness of model fitting. For the investigated temperature profile, a shelf life gain of 0.33 days was obtained in MAP compared to the conventional storage situation (no MAP condition). Shelf life gain of more than 1 day could be obtained for optimized post-harvest conditions as numerically investigated. Such shelf life gain permitted to anticipate a significant reduction of food losses at the distribution and consumer steps. This food losses' reduction as a function of shelf life gain has been quantified using a dedicated mathematical equation that has been developed for this purpose.

Keywords: food losses and wastes, modified atmosphere packaging, mathematical modeling, shelf life prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
5078 Second Time’s a Charm: The Intervention of the European Patent Office on the Strategic Use of Divisional Applications

Authors: Alissa Lefebre

Abstract:

It might seem intuitive to hope for a fast decision on the patent grant. After all, a granted patent provides you with a monopoly position, which allows you to obstruct others from using your technology. However, this does not take into account the strategic advantages one can obtain from keeping their patent applications pending. First, you have the financial advantage of postponing certain fees, although many applicants would probably agree that this is not the main benefit. As the scope of the patent protection is only decided upon at the grant, the pendency period introduces uncertainty amongst rivals. This uncertainty entails not knowing whether the patent will actually get granted and what the scope of protection will be. Consequently, rivals can only depend upon limited and uncertain information when deciding what technology is worth pursuing. One way to keep patent applications pending, is the use of divisional applications. These applicants can be filed out of a parent application as long as that parent application is still pending. This allows the applicant to pursue (part of) the content of the parent application in another application, as the divisional application cannot exceed the scope of the parent application. In a fast-moving and complex market such as the tele- and digital communications, it might allow applicants to obtain an actual monopoly position as competitors are discouraged to pursue a certain technology. Nevertheless, this practice also has downsides to it. First of all, it has an impact on the workload of the examiners at the patent office. As the number of patent filings have been increasing over the last decades, using strategies that increase this number even more, is not desirable from the patent examiners point of view. Secondly, a pending patent does not provide you with the protection of a granted patent, thus not only create uncertainty for the rivals, but also for the applicant. Consequently, the European patent office (EPO) has come up with a “raising the bar initiative” in which they have decided to tackle the strategic use of divisional applications. Over the past years, two rules have been implemented. The first rule in 2010 introduced a time limit, upon which divisional applications could only be filed within a 24-month limit after the first communication with the patent office. However, after carrying-out a user feedback survey, the EPO abolished the rule again in 2014 and replaced it by a fee mechanism. The fee mechanism is still in place today, which might be an indication of a better result compared to the first rule change. This study tests the impact of these rules on the strategic use of divisional applications in the tele- and digital communication industry and provides empirical evidence on their success. Upon using three different survival models, we find overall evidence that divisional applications prolong the pendency time and that only the second rule is able to tackle the strategic patenting and thus decrease the pendency time.

Keywords: divisional applications, regulatory changes, strategic patenting, EPO

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
5077 Virtual Team Management in Companies and Organizations

Authors: Asghar Zamani, Mostafa Falahmorad

Abstract:

Virtualization is established to combine and use the unique capabilities of employees to increase productivity and agility to provide services regardless of location. Adapting to fast and continuous change and getting maximum access to human resources are reasons why virtualization is happening. The distance problem is solved by information. Flexibility is the most important feature of virtualization, and information will be the main focus of virtualized companies. In this research, we used the Covid-19 opportunity window to assess the productivity of the companies that had been going through more virtualized management before the Covid-19 in comparison with those that just started planning on developing infrastructures on virtual management after the crises of pandemic occurred. The research process includes financial (profitability and customer satisfaction) and behavioral (organizational culture and reluctance to change) metrics assessment. In addition to financial and CRM KPIs, a questionnaire is devised to assess how manager and employees’ attitude has been changing towards the migration to virtualization. The sample companies and questions are selected by asking from experts in the IT industry of Iran. In this article, the conclusion is that companies open to virtualization based on accurate strategic planning or willing to pay to train their employees for virtualization before the pandemic are more agile in adapting to change and moving forward in recession. The prospective companies in this research, not only could compensate for the short period loss from the first shock of the Covid-19, but they could also foresee new needs of their customer sooner than other competitors, resulting in the need to employ new staff for executing the emerging demands. Findings were aligned with the literature review. Results can be a wake-up call for business owners especially in developing countries to be more resilient toward modern management styles instead of continuing with traditional ones.

Keywords: virtual management, virtual organization, competitive advantage, KPI, profit

Procedia PDF Downloads 83
5076 Abridging Pharmaceutical Analysis and Drug Discovery via LC-MS-TOF, NMR, in-silico Toxicity-Bioactivity Profiling for Therapeutic Purposing Zileuton Impurities: Need of Hour

Authors: Saurabh B. Ganorkar, Atul A. Shirkhedkar

Abstract:

The need for investigations protecting against toxic impurities though seems to be a primary requirement; the impurities which may prove non - toxic can be explored for their therapeutic potential if any to assist advanced drug discovery. The essential role of pharmaceutical analysis can thus be extended effectively to achieve it. The present study successfully achieved these objectives with characterization of major degradation products as impurities for Zileuton which has been used for to treat asthma since years. The forced degradation studies were performed to identify the potential degradation products using Ultra-fine Liquid-chromatography. Liquid-chromatography-Mass spectrometry (Time of Flight) and Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Studies were utilized effectively to characterize the drug along with five major oxidative and hydrolytic degradation products (DP’s). The mass fragments were identified for Zileuton and path for the degradation was investigated. The characterized DP’s were subjected to In-Silico studies as XP Molecular Docking to compare the gain or loss in binding affinity with 5-Lipooxygenase enzyme. One of the impurity of was found to have the binding affinity more than the drug itself indicating for its potential to be more bioactive as better Antiasthmatic. The close structural resemblance has the ability to potentiate or reduce bioactivity and or toxicity. The chances of being active biologically at other sites cannot be denied and the same is achieved to some extent by predictions for probability of being active with Prediction of Activity Spectrum for Substances (PASS) The impurities found to be bio-active as Antineoplastic, Antiallergic, and inhibitors of Complement Factor D. The toxicological abilities as Ames-Mutagenicity, Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity and Skin Irritancy were evaluated using Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology (TOPKAT). Two of the impurities were found to be non-toxic as compared to original drug Zileuton. As the drugs are purposed and repurposed effectively the impurities can also be; as they can have more binding affinity; less toxicity and better ability to be bio-active at other biological targets.

Keywords: UFLC, LC-MS-TOF, NMR, Zileuton, impurities, toxicity, bio-activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
5075 Beyond Voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility: Examining the Impact of the New Mandatory Community Development Agreement in the Mining Sector of Sierra Leone

Authors: Wusu Conteh

Abstract:

Since the 1990s, neo-liberalization has become a global agenda. The free market ushered in an unprecedented drive by Multinational Corporations (MNCs) to secure mineral rights in resource-rich countries. Several governments in the Global South implemented a liberalized mining policy with support from the International Financial Institutions (IFIs). MNCs have maintained that voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has engendered socio-economic development in mining-affected communities. However, most resource-rich countries are struggling to transform the resources into sustainable socio-economic development. They are trapped in what has been widely described as the ‘resource curse.’ In an attempt to address this resource conundrum, the African Mining Vision (AMV) of 2009 developed a model on resource governance. The advent of the AMV has engendered the introduction of mandatory community development agreement (CDA) into the legal framework of many countries in Africa. In 2009, Sierra Leone enacted the Mines and Minerals Act that obligates mining companies to invest in Primary Host Communities. The study employs interviews and field observation techniques to explicate the dynamics of the CDA program. A total of 25 respondents -government officials, NGOs/CSOs and community stakeholders were interviewed. The study focuses on a case study of the Sierra Rutile CDA program in Sierra Leone. Extant scholarly works have extensively explored the resource curse and voluntary CSR. There are limited studies to uncover the mandatory CDA and its impact on socio-economic development in mining-affected communities. Thus, the purpose of this study is to explicate the impact of the CDA in Sierra Leone. Using the theory of change helps to understand how the availability of mandatory funds can empower communities to take an active part in decision making related to the development of the communities. The results show that the CDA has engendered a predictable fund for community development. It has also empowered ordinary members of the community to determine the development program. However, the CDA has created a new ground for contestations between the pre-existing local governance structure (traditional authority) and the newly created community development committee (CDC) that is headed by an ordinary member of the community.

Keywords: community development agreement, impact, mandatory, participation

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
5074 Practice of Social Innovation in School Education: A Study of Third Sector Organisations in India

Authors: Prakash Chittoor

Abstract:

In the recent past, it is realised especially in third sector that employing social innovation is crucial for achieving viable and long lasting social transformation. In this context, education is one among many sectors that have opened up itself for such move where employing social innovation emerges as key for reaching out to the excluded sections who are often failed to get support from either policy or market interventions. In fact, education is being as a crucial factor for social development is well understood at both academic and policy level. In order to move forward to achieve better results, interventions from multiple sectors may be required as its reach cultivates capabilities and skill of the deprived in order to ensure both market and social participation in the long run. Despite state’s intervention, it is found that still millions of children are out of school due to lack of political will, lapses in policy implementation and neoliberal intervention of marketization. As a result, universalisation of elementary education became as an elusive goal to poor and marginalised sections where state obtain constant pressure by corporate sector to withdraw from education sector that led convince in providing quality education. At this juncture, the role of third sector organizations plays is quite remarkable. Especially, it has evolved as a key player in education sector to reach out to the poor and marginalised in the far-flung areas. These organisations work in resources constrain environment, yet, in order to achieve larger social impact they adopt various social innovations from time to time to reach out to the unreached. Their attempts not only limited to just approaching the unreached children but to retain them for long-time in the schooling system in order to ripe the results for their families and communities. There is a need to highlight various innovative ways adopted and practiced by the third sector organisations in India to achieve the elusive goal of universal access of primary education with quality. With this background, the paper primarily attempts to present an in-depth understanding about innovative practices employed by third sectors organisations like Isha Vidya through government schools adoption programme in India where it engages itself with government and build capabilities among the government teachers to promote state run schooling with quality and better infrastructure. Further, this paper assess whether such innovative attempts succeeded in to achieving universal quality education in the areas where it operates and draws implications for State policy.

Keywords: school education, third sector organisations, social innovation, market domination

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
5073 Self-Government Health Policy Programs as a Form of Implementation of Public Health Tasks in Poland

Authors: T. Holecki, J. Wozniak-Holecka, K. Sobczyk

Abstract:

Development, implementation, and evaluation of the effects of health policy programs, resulting from the identified health needs and health status of residents, is the own task of all local government units in Poland. This is due to the obligation to provide access to healthcare services to all residents and the implementation of tasks in the field of health promotion based on specific legal acts. Until the end of 2016 local governments financed health policy programs only with their own funds. Currently, there are additional resources available from the public health insurance subsidising up to 80% of health policy programs costs in cities with a population under 5 thousand people and up to 40% in bigger cities. Changes in legal provisions do not translate automatically to increased involvement of local government units in the implementation of public health tasks. The main objective of the study was to assess the actual impact of the new legal regulation on financing local health policy programs on the engagement of local administration in this area of public health activity. To achieve this aim, we analyzed difference in the number of local governments developing and implementing health policy programs before and after the new law came into force. The aim of the study was also to estimate the level of expenditures incurred by self-government units and the National Health Fund to cover the costs of health policy programs. In the first stage of the project, legal acts concerning the subject of research and financial data published by the National Health Fund were analyzed. The material for the second, main stage of the study was the detailed financial data obtained from the National Health Fund and data obtained from local government units. The results present the situation in Poland in territorial terms, divided into 16 voivodships.

Keywords: health care system, health policy programs, local self-governments, public health

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
5072 Quality of Life for Families with Children/Youth with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Authors: José Nogueira

Abstract:

This research aims to analyze the impact of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in families with children and youth (0-25 years) with ASD in Portugal. The impact will be evaluated on a multidimensional perspective, following the work on the concept of quality life from WHOQOL Group (UN). The study includes quantitative and qualitative methodology. It correlates statistical sources and other information with the data obtained through a survey of a sample of about 100 families with children/youth with ASD (October and November 2013). The results indicate a strong impact of autism on the quality of life for families in all study dimensions. The research shows a negative impact on quality of life for families in material and financial conditions, physical and emotional well-being, career progression, feelings of injustice, social participation and self-perception of happiness. The quality of life remained in the relationship with the family and the spouse, interpersonal relationships and beliefs about himself. The ASD improved the quality of life aspects such as interest, knowledge and exercise of rights on disability, autonomy to make decisions and be able to deal with stress. Other dimensions are contemplated: a detailed characterization of the child/young with ASD and all family members (household composition, relationship status, academic qualifications, occupation, income, and leisure) the impact of diagnosis in the family wellbeing, medical and therapeutic processes, school inclusion, public support, social participation, and the adequacy and implementation of legislation. The study evaluates also the strengths and weaknesses of the Portuguese public rehabilitation system and demonstrates how a good law-in-theory may not solve the problems of families in practice due to the allocation of insufficient public resources, both financial and human resources.

Keywords: autism, families, quality of life, autism spectrum disorder

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
5071 Forensic Investigation: The Impact of Biometric-Based Solution in Combatting Mobile Fraud

Authors: Mokopane Charles Marakalala

Abstract:

Research shows that mobile fraud has grown exponentially in South Africa during the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the South African Banking Risk Information Centre (SABRIC), fraudulent online banking and transactions resulted in a sharp increase in cybercrime since the beginning of the lockdown, resulting in a huge loss to the banking industry in South Africa. While the Financial Intelligence Centre Act, 38 of 2001, regulate financial transactions, it is evident that criminals are making use of technology to their advantage. Money-laundering ranks among the major crimes, not only in South Africa but worldwide. This paper focuses on the impact of biometric-based solutions in combatting mobile fraud at the South African Risk Information. SABRIC had the challenges of a successful mobile fraud; cybercriminals could hijack a mobile device and use it to gain access to sensitive personal data and accounts. Cybercriminals are constantly looting the depths of cyberspace in search of victims to attack. Millions of people worldwide use online banking to do their regular bank-related transactions quickly and conveniently. This was supported by the SABRIC, who regularly highlighted incidents of mobile fraud, corruption, and maladministration in SABRIC, resulting in a lack of secure their banking online; they are vulnerable to falling prey to fraud scams such as mobile fraud. Criminals have made use of digital platforms since the development of technology. In 2017, 13 438 instances involving banking apps, internet banking, and mobile banking caused the sector to suffer gross losses of more than R250,000,000. The final three parties are forced to point fingers at one another while the fraudster makes off with the money. A non-probability sampling (purposive sampling) was used in selecting these participants. These included telephone calls and virtual interviews. The results indicate that there is a relationship between remote online banking and the increase in money-laundering as the system allows transactions to take place with limited verification processes. This paper highlights the significance of considering the development of prevention mechanisms, capacity development, and strategies for both financial institutions as well as law enforcement agencies in South Africa to reduce crime such as money-laundering. The researcher recommends that strategies to increase awareness for bank staff must be harnessed through the provision of requisite training and to be provided adequate training.

Keywords: biometric-based solution, investigation, cybercrime, forensic investigation, fraud, combatting

Procedia PDF Downloads 101
5070 Telephonic Communication in Palliative Care for Better Management of Terminal Cancer Patients in Rural India: An NGO Based Approach

Authors: Aditya Manna, L. K. Khanra, S. K. Sarkar

Abstract:

Aim: Due to financial incapability and the absence of manpower-poor families often fail to carry their advanced cancer patients to the nodal centers. This pilot study will explore whether communication by mobile phone can lessen this burden. Method: Initially a plan was generated regarding management of an advanced cancer patient in a nodal center at District Head Quarter. Subsequently every two week a trained social worker attached to the nodal center will follow up and give necessary advice and emotional support to the patients and their families through their registered mobile phone number. Patient’s family were also encouraged to communicate with the team by phone in case of fresh complain and urgency in between. Results: Since initiation in January 2013, 193 cancer patients were contacted by mobile phone every two weeks to enquire about their difficulties. In 76% of the situation trained social workers could give necessary advice by phone regarding management of their physical symptoms. Moreover, patient’s family was really overwhelmed by the emotional support offered by the team over the phone. Only 24% of cancer patients have to attend the nodal center for expert advice from Palliative Care specialists. Conclusion: This novel approach helped: (a) In providing regular physical and emotional support to the patients and their families. (b) In significantly reducing the financial and manpower problems of carrying patients to the nodal units. (c) In improving the quality of life of patients by continuous guidance. More and more team members can take help of this new strategy for better communication and uninterrupted care.

Keywords: palliative care, terminal care, home based palliative care, rural india

Procedia PDF Downloads 304
5069 Driving Forces of Bank Liquidity: Evidence from Selected Ethiopian Private Commercial Banks

Authors: Tadele Tesfay Teame, Tsegaye Abrehame, Hágen István Zsombor

Abstract:

Liquidity is one of the main concerns for banks, and thus achieving the optimum level of liquidity is critical. The main objective of this study is to discover the driving force of selected private commercial banks’ liquidity. In order to achieve the objective explanatory research design and quantitative research approach were used. Data has been collected from a secondary source of the sampled Ethiopian private commercial banks’ financial statements, the National Bank of Ethiopia, and the Minister of Finance, the sample covering the period from 2011 to 2022. Bank-specific and macroeconomic variables were analyzed by using the balanced panel fixed effect regression model. Bank’s liquidity ratio is measured by the total liquid asset to total deposits. The findings of the study revealed that bank size, capital adequacy, loan growth rate, and non-performing loan had a statistically significant impact on private commercial banks’ liquidity, and annual inflation rate and interest rate margin had a statistically significant impact on the liquidity of Ethiopian private commercial banks measured by L1 (bank liquidity). Thus, banks in Ethiopia should not only be concerned about internal structures and policies/procedures, but they must consider both the internal environment and the macroeconomic environment together in developing their strategies to efficiently manage their liquidity position and private commercial banks to maintain their financial proficiency shall have bank liquidity management policy by assimilating both bank-specific and macro-economic variables.

Keywords: liquidity, Ethiopian private commercial banks, liquidity ratio, panel data regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
5068 Study of Clutch Cable Architecture and Its Influence in Efficiency of Mechanical Cable Release System

Authors: M. Devamanalan, K. Pothiraj, M. Sudhan

Abstract:

In competitive market like India, there is a high demand on the equal contribution on performance and its durability aspect of any system. In General vehicle has multiple sub-systems such as powertrain, BIW, Brakes, Actuations, Suspension and Seats etc., To withstand the market challenges, the contribution of each sub-system is very vital. The malfunction of any one sub system will directly have an impact on the performance of the major system which lead to dis-satisfaction to the end user. The Powertrain system consists of several sub-systems in which clutch is one of the prime sub-systems in MT vehicles which assist for smoother gear shifts with proper clutch dis-engagement and engagement. In general, most of the vehicles will have a mechanical or semi or full hydraulic clutch release system, whereas in small Commercial Vehicles (SCV) the majorly used clutch release system is mechanical cable release system due to its lesser cost and functional requirements. The major bottle neck in the cable type clutch release system is increase in pedal effort due to hysteresis increase and Gear shifting hard due to efficiency loss / cable slackness over the mileage accumulation of the vehicle. This study is to mainly focus on how the efficiency and hysteresis change over the mileage of the vehicle occurs because of the design architecture of outer and inner cable. The study involves several cable design validation results from vehicle level and rig level through the defined cable routing and test procedures. Results are compared to evaluate the suitable cable design architecture based on better efficiency and lower hysteresis parameters at initial and end of the validation.

Keywords: clutch, clutch cable, efficiency, architecture, cable routing

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
5067 Exploring the Factors Affecting the Presence of Farmers’ Markets in Rural British Columbia

Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

Abstract:

Farmers’ Markets have become one of the important healthy food suppliers in both rural communities and urban settings. Farmers’ markets are evolving and their number has rapidly increased in the past decade. Despite this drastic increase, the distribution of the farmers’ markets is not even across different areas. The main goal of this study is to explore the socioeconomic, geographic, and demographic variables which affect the establishment of farmers’ market in rural communities in British Columbia (BC). Thus, the data on available farmers’ markets in rural areas were collected from BC Association of Farmers’ Markets and spatially joined to BC map at Dissemination Area (DA) level using ArcGIS software to link the farmers’ market to the respective communities that they serve. Then, in order to investigate this issue and understand which rural communities farmer’ markets tend to operate, a binary logistic regression analysis was performed with the availability of farmer’ markets at DA-level as dependent variable and Deprivation Index (DI), Metro Influence Zone (MIZ) and population as independent variables. The results indicated that DI and MIZ variables are not statistically significant whereas the population is the only which had a significant contribution in predicting the availability of farmers’ markets in rural BC. Moreover, this study found that farmers’ markets usually do not operate in rural food deserts where other healthy food providers such as supermarkets and grocery stores are non-existent. In conclusion, the presence of farmers markets is not associated with socioeconomic and geographic characteristics of rural communities in BC, but farmers’ markets tend to operate in more populated rural communities in BC.

Keywords: farmers’ markets, socioeconomic and demographic variables, metro influence zone, logistic regression, ArcGIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 188
5066 A Simple Model for Solar Panel Efficiency

Authors: Stefano M. Spagocci

Abstract:

The efficiency of photovoltaic panels can be calculated with such software packages as RETScreen that allow design engineers to take financial as well as technical considerations into account. RETScreen is interfaced with meteorological databases, so that efficiency calculations can be realistically carried out. The author has recently contributed to the development of solar modules with accumulation capability and an embedded water purifier, aimed at off-grid users such as users in developing countries. The software packages examined do not allow to take ancillary equipment into account, hence the decision to implement a technical and financial model of the system. The author realized that, rather than re-implementing the quite sophisticated model of RETScreen - a mathematical description of which is anyway not publicly available - it was possible to drastically simplify it, including the meteorological factors which, in RETScreen, are presented in a numerical form. The day-by-day efficiency of a photovoltaic solar panel was parametrized by the product of factors expressing, respectively, daytime duration, solar right ascension motion, solar declination motion, cloudiness, temperature. For the sun-motion-dependent factors, positional astronomy formulae, simplified by the author, were employed. Meteorology-dependent factors were fitted by simple trigonometric functions, employing numerical data supplied by RETScreen. The accuracy of our model was tested by comparing it to the predictions of RETScreen; the accuracy obtained was 11%. In conclusion, our study resulted in a model that can be easily implemented in a spreadsheet - thus being easily manageable by non-specialist personnel - or in more sophisticated software packages. The model was used in a number of design exercises, concerning photovoltaic solar panels and ancillary equipment like the above-mentioned water purifier.

Keywords: clean energy, energy engineering, mathematical modelling, photovoltaic panels, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 68
5065 Mercury (Hg) Concentration in Fish Marketed in the São Luís Fish Market (MA) and Potential Exposure of Consumers

Authors: Luiz Drude de Lacerda, Kevin Luiz Cordeiro Ferrer do Carmo, Victor Lacerda Moura, Rayone Wesley Santos de Oliveira, Moisés Fernandes Bezerra

Abstract:

Fish is a food source well recognized for its health benefits. However, the consumption of fish, especially carnivorous species, is the main path of human exposure to Hg, a widely distributed pollutant on the planet and that accumulates along food chains. Studies on the impacts on public health by fish intake show existing toxic risks even when at low concentrations. This study quantifies, for the first time, the concentrations of Hg in muscle tissue of the nine most commercialized fish species in the fish market of São Luís (MA) in north Brazil and estimates the consequent human exposure through consumption. Concentrations varied according to trophic level, with the highest found in the larger carnivorous species; the Yellow hake (Cynoscion acoupa) (296.4 ± 241.2 ng/g w.w) and the Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) (262.8 ± 89.1 ng/g w.w.), whereas the lowest concentrations were recorded in iliophagous Mullets (Mugil curema) (20.5 ± 9.6 ng/g w.w.). Significant correlations were observed between Hg concentrations and individual length in only two species: the Flaming catfish (Bagre marinus) and the Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus crysurus). Given the relatively uniform size of individuals of the other species and/or the small number of samples, this relationship was not found for the other species. The estimated risk coefficients, despite the relatively low concentrations of Hg, suggest that yellow hake and Whitemouth croaker (Micropogonias furnieri), fish most consumed by the local population, present some risk to human health (> 1) HQ and THQ, depending on the frequency of their consumption.

Keywords: contamination, fish, human exposure, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
5064 A Descriptive Study on Micro Living and Its Importance over Large Houses by Understanding Various Scenarios and Case Studies

Authors: Belal Neazi

Abstract:

'Larger Houses Consume More Resources’ – both in construction and during operation. The most important aspect of smaller homes is that it uses less electricity and fuel for construction and maintenance. Here, an urban interpretation of the contemporary minimal existence movement is explained. In an attempt to restrict urban decay and to encourage inner-city renewal, the Tiny House principles are interpreted as alternative ways of dwelling in urban neighbourhoods. These tiny houses are usually pretty different from each other in interior planning, but almost similar in size. The disadvantage of large homes came up when people were asked to vacate as they were not able to pay the massive amount of mortgages. This made them reconsider their housing situation and discover the ideas of minimalism and the general rising inclination in environmental awareness that serve as the basis for the tiny house movement. One of the largest benefits of inhabiting a tiny house is the decrease in carbon footprint. Also, to increase social behaviour and freedom. It’s better for the environmental concern, financial concerns, and desire for more time and freedom. Examples of the tiny house village which are sustaining homeless population and the use of different reclaimed materials for the construction of these tiny houses are explained in the paper. It is proposed in the paper, that these houses will reflect the diversity while proposing an alternative model for the rehabilitation of decaying row-homes and the renewal of fading communities. The core objective is to design small or micro spaces for the economically backward people of the place and increase their social behaviour and freedom. Also, it’s better for the environmental concern, financial concerns, and desire for more time and freedom.

Keywords: city renewal, environmental concern, micro-living, tiny house

Procedia PDF Downloads 182
5063 Chinese Leaders Abroad: Case in the Netherlands

Authors: Li Lin, Hein Roelfsema

Abstract:

To achieve aggressive expansion goals, many Chinese companies are seeking resources and market around the world. To an increasing extent, Chinese enterprises recognized the Netherlands as their gateway to Europe Market. Yet, large cultural gaps (e.g. individualism/collectivism, power distance) may influence expat leaders’ influencing process, in turn affect intercultural teamwork. Lessons and suggestions from Chinese expat leaders could provide profound knowledge for managerial practice and future research. The current research focuses on the cultural difference between China and the Netherlands, along with leadership tactics for coping and handling differences occurring in the international business work. Exclusive 47 in-depth interviews with Chinese expat leaders were conducted. Within each interview, respondents were asked what were the main issues when working with Dutch employees, and what they believed as the keys to successful leadership in Dutch-Chinese cross-cultural workplaces. Consistent with previous research, the findings highlight the need to consider the cultural context within which leadership adapts. In addition, the findings indicated the importance of recognizing and applying the cultural advantages from which leadership originates. The results address observation ability as a crucial key for Chinese managers to lead Dutch/international teams. Moreover, setting a common goal help a leader to overcome the challenges due to cultural differences. Based on the analysis, we develop a process model to illustrate the dynamic mechanisms. Our study contributes to the better understanding of transference of management practices, and has important practical implications for managing Dutch employees.

Keywords: Chinese managers, Dutch employees, leadership, interviews

Procedia PDF Downloads 343
5062 Non-Timber Forest Products and Livelihood Linkages: A Case of Lamabagar, Nepal

Authors: Sandhya Rijal, Saroj Adhikari, Ramesh R. Pant

Abstract:

Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) have attracted substantial interest in the recent years with the increasing recognition that these can provide essential community needs for improved and diversified rural livelihood and support the objectives of biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, various challenges are witnessed in their sustainable harvest and management. Assuming that sustainable management with community stewardship can offer one of the solutions to existing challenges, the study assesses the linkages between NTFPs and rural livelihood in Lamabagar village of Dolakha, Nepal. The major objective was to document the status of NTFPs and their contributions in households of Lamabagar. For status documentation, vegetation sampling was done using systematic random sampling technique. 30 plots of 10 m × 10 m were laid down in six parallel transect lines at horizontal distance of 160 m in two different community forests. A structured questionnaire survey was conducted in 76 households (excluding non-response rate) using stratified random sampling technique for contribution analysis. Likewise, key informant interview and focus group discussions were also conducted for data triangulations. 36 different NTFPs were recorded from the vegetation sample in two community forests of which 50% were used for medicinal purposes. The other uses include fodder, religious value, and edible fruits and vegetables. Species like Juniperus indica, Daphne bholua Aconitum spicatum, and Lyonia ovalifolia were frequently used for trade as a source of income, which was sold in local market. The protected species like Taxus wallichiana and Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora were also recorded in the area for which the trade is prohibited. The protection of these species urgently needs community stewardship. More than half of the surveyed households (55%) were depending on NTFPs for their daily uses, other than economic purpose whereas 45% of them sold those products in the market directly or in the form of local handmade products as a source of livelihood. NTFPs were the major source of primary health curing agents especially for the poor and unemployed people in the study area. Hence, the NTFPs contributed to livelihood under three different categories: subsistence, supplement income and emergency support, depending upon the economic status of the households. Although the status of forest improved after handover to the user group, the availability of valuable medicinal herbs like Rhododendron anthopogon, Swertia nervosa, Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora, and Aconitum spicatum were declining. Inadequacy of technology, lack of easy transport access, and absence of good market facility were the major limitations for external trade of NTFPs in the study site. It was observed that people were interested towards conservation only if they could get some returns: economic in terms of rural settlements. Thus, the study concludes that NTFPs could contribute rural livelihood and support conservation objectives only if local communities are provided with the easy access of technology, market and capital.

Keywords: contribution, medicinal, subsistence, sustainable harvest

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
5061 Holistic Approach to Assess the Potential of Using Traditional and Advance Insulation Materials for Energy Retrofit of Office Buildings

Authors: Marco Picco, Mahmood Alam

Abstract:

Improving the energy performance of existing buildings can be challenging, particularly when facades cannot be modified, and the only available option is internal insulation. In such cases, the choice of the most suitable material becomes increasingly complex, as in addition to thermal transmittance and capital cost, the designer needs to account for the impact of the intervention on the internal spaces, and in particular the loss of usable space due to the additional layers of materials installed. This paper explores this issue by analysing a case study of an average office building needing to go through a refurbishment in order to reach the limits imposed by current regulations to achieve energy efficiency in buildings. The building is simulated through dynamic performance simulation under three different climate conditions in order to evaluate its energy needs. The use of Vacuum Insulated Panels as an option for energy refurbishment is compared to traditional insulation materials (XPS, Mineral Wool). For each scenario, energy consumptions are calculated and, in combination with their expected capital costs, used to perform a financial feasibility analysis. A holistic approach is proposed, taking into account the impact of the intervention on internal space by quantifying the value of the lost usable space and used in the financial feasibility analysis. The proposed approach highlights how taking into account different drivers will lead to the choice of different insulation materials, showing how accounting for the economic value of space can make VIPs an attractive solution for energy retrofitting under various climate conditions.

Keywords: vacuum insulated panels, building performance simulation, payback period, building energy retrofit

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
5060 Comparison of Different Reanalysis Products for Predicting Extreme Precipitation in the Southern Coast of the Caspian Sea

Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

Abstract:

Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
5059 Strengthening Governance in Public Administration: The Strategic Role of Internal Auditing in Enhancing Accountability and Transparency

Authors: Iulian Clain

Abstract:

In contemporary public administration, the demand for greater accountability, transparency, and efficient governance has intensified, particularly in the face of increasing public scrutiny and fiscal constraints. Internal auditing has emerged as a vital tool in strengthening governance structures, enhancing the effectiveness of public sector institutions, and ensuring compliance with regulatory frameworks. This paper examines the evolving role of internal auditing within public administration, with an emphasis on risk management, regulatory compliance, and fraud prevention. Building on institutional theory and risk management frameworks, this study explores how internal audits contribute to identifying operational inefficiencies, minimizing financial irregularities, and promoting ethical governance practices. Through case studies and comparative analysis of auditing practices across OECD nations, this research provides insights into how strategic internal audits can be harnessed to reinforce public sector governance, thereby improving the delivery of public services. The paper argues that the integration of internal audit findings into decision-making processes enhances not only financial accountability but also policy outcomes, fostering greater public trust in government institutions. Key recommendations are presented on how public institutions can further integrate internal auditing processes to enhance governance outcomes, focusing on best practices for institutionalizing audit functions within public sector governance frameworks. These findings are particularly relevant for policymakers, audit professionals, and public administration leaders striving to achieve better governance, operational efficiency, and integrity in the public sector.

Keywords: internal auditing role, public administration sciences, public administration audit, internal auditing in universities

Procedia PDF Downloads 21
5058 The Effectiveness of the South African Government Theory of Expanded Public Works Program: Infrastructure

Authors: Siziwe Monica Zuma

Abstract:

The Expanded Public Works Program (EPWP) is an instrument that the South African Government uses to reduce unemployment and poverty and also stimulate economic growth. However, due to the limited budget and programs in the EPWP, the program has had challenges in reducing unemployment, poverty and stimulating economic growth. The EPWP Vuk’uphile program had positive outcomes in developing Black emerging contractors, in order for them to participate in the main stream economy far better than when the EPWP program was not introduced. The Skills component of the program particularly the EPWP Infrastructure, which is the most funded program under EPWP has had limited success in transferring appropriate skills to ensure labour participants can penetrate the labour market after participating in the EPWP. Education and skills are important attributes that can contribute to labour absorption, however, the EPWP particularly the infrastructure program needs to strengthen skills development over a longer period of time suggested a year with multi skills relevant to the labour market. Longer and more sustained employment provides a safety net and reduces poverty better that short term employment. The EPWP program can be expanded in the infrastructure sector, focusing on rural infrastructure, agricultural infrastructure, infrastructure related components like property, ownership, management, and other services. These can stimulate the Economic sector Infrastructure of EPWP, offer longer term and more sustained employment and rural enterprise development and further employment. The Expanded Public Works Program (EPWP) is an instrument that the South African Government uses to reduce unemployment and poverty and also stimulate economic growth. However, due to the limited budget and programs in the EPWP, the program has had challenges in reducing unemployment, poverty and stimulating economic growth. The EPWP Vuk’uphile program has had positive outcomes in developing Black emerging contractors, in order for them to participate in the main stream economy far better than when the EPWP program was not introduced. The Skills component of the program particularly the EPWP Infrastructure, which is the most funded program under EPWP has had limited success in transferring appropriate skills to ensure labour participants are able to penetrate the labour market after participating in the EPWP. Education and skills are important attributes that can contribute to labour absorption, however, the EPWP particularly the infrastructure program needs to strengthen skills development over a longer period of time suggested a year with multi skills relevant to the labour market. Longer and more sustained employment provides a safety net and reduces poverty better that short term employment. The EPWP program can be expanded in the infrastructure sector, focusing on rural infrastructure, agricultural infrastructure, infrastructure related components like property, ownership, management, and other services. These can stimulate the Economic sector Infrastructure of EPWP, offer longer term and more sustained employment and rural enterprise development and further employment.

Keywords: Expanded Public Works Program (EPWP), VUKÚPHILE, youth, Public Works Programs (PWP), Infrastructure Sector of EPWP (EPWP Infrastructure)

Procedia PDF Downloads 218
5057 Development of a Risk Disclosure Index and Examination of Its Determinants: An Empirical Study in Indian Context

Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

Abstract:

Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

Procedia PDF Downloads 162
5056 Physics Informed Deep Residual Networks Based Type-A Aortic Dissection Prediction

Authors: Joy Cao, Min Zhou

Abstract:

Purpose: Acute Type A aortic dissection is a well-known cause of extremely high mortality rate. A highly accurate and cost-effective non-invasive predictor is critically needed so that the patient can be treated at earlier stage. Although various CFD approaches have been tried to establish some prediction frameworks, they are sensitive to uncertainty in both image segmentation and boundary conditions. Tedious pre-processing and demanding calibration procedures requirement further compound the issue, thus hampering their clinical applicability. Using the latest physics informed deep learning methods to establish an accurate and cost-effective predictor framework are amongst the main goals for a better Type A aortic dissection treatment. Methods: Via training a novel physics-informed deep residual network, with non-invasive 4D MRI displacement vectors as inputs, the trained model can cost-effectively calculate all these biomarkers: aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI, which are used to predict potential type A aortic dissection to avoid the high mortality events down the road. Results: The proposed deep learning method has been successfully trained and tested with both synthetic 3D aneurysm dataset and a clinical dataset in the aortic dissection context using Google colab environment. In both cases, the model has generated aortic blood pressure, WSS, and OSI results matching the expected patient’s health status. Conclusion: The proposed novel physics-informed deep residual network shows great potential to create a cost-effective, non-invasive predictor framework. Additional physics-based de-noising algorithm will be added to make the model more robust to clinical data noises. Further studies will be conducted in collaboration with big institutions such as Cleveland Clinic with more clinical samples to further improve the model’s clinical applicability.

Keywords: type-a aortic dissection, deep residual networks, blood flow modeling, data-driven modeling, non-invasive diagnostics, deep learning, artificial intelligence.

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
5055 A Semi-supervised Classification Approach for Trend Following Investment Strategy

Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

Abstract:

Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 89
5054 Cost-Conscious Treatment of Basal Cell Carcinoma

Authors: Palak V. Patel, Jessica Pixley, Steven R. Feldman

Abstract:

Introduction: Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is the most common skin cancer worldwide and requires substantial resources to treat. When choosing between indicated therapies, providers consider their associated adverse effects, efficacy, cosmesis, and function preservation. The patient’s tumor burden, infiltrative risk, and risk of tumor recurrence are also considered. Treatment cost is often left out of these discussions. This can lead to financial toxicity, which describes the harm and quality of life reductions inflicted by high care costs. Methods: We studied the guidelines set forth by the American Academy of Dermatology for the treatment of BCC. A PubMed literature search was conducted to identify the costs of each recommended therapy. We discuss costs alongside treatment efficacy and side-effect profile. Results: Surgical treatment for BCC can be cost-effective if the appropriate treatment is selected for the presenting tumor. Curettage and electrodesiccation can be used in low-grade, low-recurrence tumors in aesthetically unimportant areas. The benefits of cost-conscious care are not likely to be outweighed by the risks of poor cosmesis or tumor return ($471 BCC of the cheek). When tumor burden is limited, MMS offers better cure rates and lower recurrence rates than surgical excision, and with comparable costs (MMS $1263; SE $949). Surgical excision with permanent sections may be indicated when tumor burden is more extensive or if molecular testing is necessary. The utility of surgical excision with frozen sections, which costs substantially more than MMS without comparable outcomes, is less clear (SE with frozen sections $2334-$3085). Less data exists on non-surgical treatments for BCC. These techniques cost less, but recurrence-risk is high. Side-effects of nonsurgical treatment are limited to local skin reactions, and cosmesis is good. Cryotherapy, 5-FU, and MAL-PDT are all more affordable than surgery, but high recurrence rates increase risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burden (recurrence rates 21-39%; cost $100-270). Radiation therapy offers better clearance rates than other nonsurgical treatments but is associated with similar recurrence rates and a significantly larger financial burden ($2591-$3460 BCC of the cheek). Treatments for advanced or metastatic BCC are extremely costly, but few patients require their use, and the societal cost burden remains low. Vismodegib and sonidegib have good response rates but substantial side effects, and therapy should be combined with multidisciplinary care and palliative measures. Expert-review has found sonidegib to be the less expensive and more efficacious option (vismodegib $128,358; sonidegib $122,579). Platinum therapy, while not FDA-approved, is also effective but expensive (~91,435). Immunotherapy offers a new line of treatment in patients intolerant of hedgehog inhibitors ($683,061). Conclusion: Dermatologists working within resource-compressed practices and with resource-limited patients must prudently manage the healthcare dollar. Surgical therapies for BCC offer the lowest risk of recurrence at the most reasonable cost. Non-surgical therapies are more affordable, but high recurrence rates increase the risk of secondary financial and psychosocial burdens. Treatments for advanced BCC are incredibly costly, but the low incidence means the overall cost to the system is low.

Keywords: nonmelanoma skin cancer, basal cell skin cancer, squamous cell skin cancer, cost of care

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
5053 Publishing Formats of Scientific Journals in the XXI Century: the Case of Small Publishing Market

Authors: Arūnas Gudinavičius, Andrius Šuminas

Abstract:

The analysis of scholarly journals formats is fragmented and needs to be studied from a point of view of scientific communication. While PDF is to the author’s best knowledge probably the most popular digital format of XXI century, but there are more formats available: HTML, EPUB, etc. Our aim is to analyze how these formats important to the readers and what is their contribution to scientific communication. We want to investigate how printed journals are still popular between scholars and does different formats are preferred between fields of science . In most cases, publishing of scientific journals are examined from a narrow perspective of a particular university science affair administrators or research funding institution. We believe that more data o n formats used in scholarly periodicals currently published in Lithuania as well as in Eastern Europe are needed. Science communication is often analyzed as a directed chain of information in the author-publisher-reader cycle. The paper is focusing on the publishing part of this chain. A distinction is made between formal and informal forms of scientific communication, which is relevant in today's context, when both forms of communication intertwine and complement each other. In our research, we will analyze formal documentary (formats of publication of scientific articles) communication - scientific information recorded in a certain medium and formatted in certain format (printed, PDF, HTML, EPUB, etc.). In our research, we will analyze the stage of publication of research results in scientific journals and their dissemination through specific publication formats. The paper is to systematize and analyze the various types of formats of scientific journal published in XXI century in Lithuania (small publishing market). The research analyses the case of small European country and presents publishing formats characteristics of the publication of scientific periodicals.

Keywords: scientific communication, scientific journals, publishing formats, reading

Procedia PDF Downloads 97