Search results for: stochastic demands

Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges

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Authors: Hasan Basri Jumin, Henni Rosneti, Agusnimar

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Crude palm oil liquid sludge sewage was treated to maize with 400 cc/plant could be increased mean relative growth rates, net assimilation rate, leaf area and dry weight of seed. There are indicated that 400 cc / plant treated to maize significantly increase the average of mean relative growth rates into 0.32 g.day-1. Net assimilation rates increase from 13.5 mg.m-2.day-1 into 34.5 mg.m-2.day-1, leaf area at 50 days after planting increase from 1419 cm-2 into 2458 cm-2 and dry weight of seed from 38 g per plant into 43 g per plant. Crude palm oil liquid sludge waste chemical analysis indicated that, there are no exceed threshold content of dangerous metals and biology effects. Cadmium content as heavy metal is lower than threshold of human healthy tolerance. Therefore, it has no syndrome effect to human health. Biological oxygen demands and chemical oxygen demands as indicators for micro-organism activities, there are under the threshold of human healthy tolerance.

Keywords: crude-palm-oil, fertilizer, liquid-sludge, maize, pollutant, waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 566

Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Raed El-Khalil, Hussein Zeaiter

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Managing and improving efficiency in the current highly competitive global automotive industry demands that companies adopt leaner and more flexible systems. During the past 20 years the domestic automotive industry in North America has been focusing on establishing new management strategies in order to meet market demands. 98The lean management process also known as Toyota Manufacturing Process (TPS) or lean manufacturing encompasses tools and techniques that were established in order to provide the best quality product with the fastest lead time at the lowest cost. The following paper presents a study that focused on improving labor efficiency at one of the Big Three (Ford, GM, Chrysler LLC) domestic automotive facility in North America. The objective of the study was to utilize several lean management tools in order to optimize the efficiency and utilization levels at the “Pre-Marriage” chassis area in a truck manufacturing and assembly facility. Utilizing three different lean tools (i.e. Standardization of work, 7 Wastes, and 5S) this research was able to improve efficiency by 51%, utilization by 246%, and reduce operations by 14%. The return on investment calculated based on the improvements made was 284%.

Keywords: lean manufacturing, standardized work, operation efficiency, utilization

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Authors: Morten Brøgger, Kim Wittchen

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Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Keywords: building stock energy modelling, energy-savings, archetype

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Authors: S. Rozhkova, O. Rozhkova, A. Harlova, V. Lasukov

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For optimal unbiased filter as mean-square and in the case of functioning anomalous noises in the observation memory channel, we have proved insensitivity of filter to inaccurate knowledge of the anomalous noise intensity matrix and its equivalence to truncated filter plotted only by non anomalous components of an observation vector.

Keywords: mathematical expectation, filtration, anomalous noise, memory

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Authors: Olga Biedova, Victoria Steblovskaya, Kai Wallbaum

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In the current capital market environment, investors constantly face the challenge of finding a successful and stable investment mechanism. Highly volatile equity markets and extremely low bond returns bring about the demand for sophisticated yet reliable risk management strategies. Investors are looking for risk management solutions to efficiently protect their investments. This study compares a classic Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) strategy to a Volatility Target portfolio insurance (VTPI). VTPI is an extension of the well-known Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) to the case where an embedded option is linked not to a pure risky asset such as e.g., S&P 500, but to a Volatility Target (VolTarget) portfolio. VolTarget strategy is a recently emerged rule-based dynamic asset allocation mechanism where the portfolio’s volatility is kept under control. As a result, a typical VTPI strategy allows higher participation rates in the market due to reduced embedded option prices. In addition, controlled volatility levels eliminate the volatility spread in option pricing, one of the frequently cited reasons for OBPI strategy fall behind CPPI. The strategies are compared within the framework of the stochastic dominance theory based on numerical simulations, rather than on the restrictive assumption of the Black-Scholes type dynamics of the underlying asset. An extended comparative quantitative analysis of performances of the above investment strategies in various market scenarios and within a range of input parameter values is presented.

Keywords: CPPI, portfolio insurance, stochastic dominance, volatility target

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Authors: Sakine Sincer

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In today’s world, which takes further steps towards globalization each and every day, societies and cultures are re-shaped while the demands of the changing world are described once more. In this atmosphere, where the speed of change sometimes reaches a terrifying point, it is possible to state that effective leaders are needed more than ever in order to meet the above-stated needs and demands. The question of what effective leadership is keeping its importance on the agenda. Most of the answers to this question has mostly focused on the approach of distributed leadership recently. This study aims at analyzing the applicability of distributed leadership, which is accepted to be an example of effective leadership that can meet the needs of global world, which is changing more and more rapidly nowadays, at higher education institutions in Turkey. Within the framework of this study, first of all, the historical development of distributed leadership is addressed, and then a theoretical framework is drawn for this approach by means of underlying what distributed leadership is and is not. After that, different points of view about the approach are laid out within the borders of opinions expressed by Gronn and Spillane, who are accepted to be the most famous advocators of distributed leadership. Then, exemplar practices of distributed leadership are included in the study before drawing attention to the strengths and weaknesses of this approach. Lastly, the applicability of distributed leadership at higher education institutions in Turkey is analyzed. This study is carried out with the method of literature review by resorting to first- and second-hand sources on distributed leadership.

Keywords: globalization, school leadership, distributed leadership, higher education, management

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Authors: Carlos Gonzalez

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This paper describes a system to optimize the use of the internet by clients requiring downloading of videos at peak hours. The system consists of a web server belonging to a provider of video contents, a provider of internet communications and a software application running on a client’s computer. The client using the application software will communicate to the video provider a list of the client’s future video demands. The video provider calculates which videos are going to be more in demand for download in the immediate future, and proceeds to request the internet provider the most optimal hours to do the downloading. The times of the downloading will be sent to the application software, which will use the information of pre-established hours negotiated between the video provider and the internet provider to download those videos. The videos will be saved in a special protected section of the user’s hard disk, which will only be accessed by the application software in the client’s computer. When the client is ready to see a video, the application will search the list of current existent videos in the area of the hard disk; if it does exist, it will use this video directly without the need for internet access. We found that the best way to optimize the download traffic of videos is by negotiation between the internet communication provider and the video content provider.

Keywords: internet optimization, video download, future demands, secure storage

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Authors: Misra Ayse Adsiz, Selim Selvi

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In today's world, technology is competing with time. In order to catch up with the world's companies and adapt quickly to the changes, it is necessary to speed up the processes and keep pace with the rate of change of the technology. The missile system design processes, which are handled with classical methods, keep behind in this race. Because customer requirements are not clear, and demands are changing again and again in the design process. Therefore, in the system design process, a methodology suitable for the missile system design dynamics has been investigated and the processes used for catching up the era are examined. When commonly used design processes are analyzed, it is seen that any one of them is dynamic enough for today’s conditions. So a hybrid design process is established. After a detailed review of the existing processes, it is decided to focus on the Scrum Framework and Agile Philosophy. Scrum is a process framework. It is focused on to develop software and handling change management with rapid methods. In addition, agile philosophy is intended to respond quickly to changes. In this study, it is aimed to integrate Scrum framework and agile philosophy, which are the most appropriate ways for rapid production and change adaptation, into the missile system design process. With this approach, it is aimed that the design team, involved in the system design processes, is in communication with the customer and provide an iterative approach in change management. These methods, which are currently being used in the software industry, have been integrated with the product design process. A team is created for system design process. The roles of Scrum Team are realized with including the customer. A scrum team consists of the product owner, development team and scrum master. Scrum events, which are short, purposeful and time-limited, are organized to serve for coordination rather than long meetings. Instead of the classic system design methods used in product development studies, a missile design is made with this blended method. With the help of this design approach, it is become easier to anticipate changing customer demands, produce quick solutions to demands and combat uncertainties in the product development process. With the feedback of the customer who included in the process, it is worked towards marketing optimization, design and financial optimization.

Keywords: agile, design, missile, scrum

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Authors: Victor Oyewumi Ogunbiyi

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Food waste is a global sustainability issue that demands that multiple stakeholders participate in solving it. This article examines how different food system stakeholders are held responsible in the policy debate related to food waste reduction. The study adopts a qualitative approach, paying attention to the views of both public and private policymakers and constructing their views relating to opportunities and policy initiatives towards waste reduction. The data consists of a list of opportunities and food policy initiatives in the development process in Nigeria. The authors identify three emerging opportunities: sectoral growth, technological demands in food service, and sustainable collaborative behaviour. The findings also revealed key policy initiatives for development: law and regulations, multi-stakeholder collaboration, economic incentives, research, and new knowledge. The study extends the marketing literature on food sustainability by investigating several stakeholders’ roles beyond the practical management of the food services sector. Additionally, considering policy initiative development for food waste mitigation sheds light on how stakeholders’ policy initiatives can sustain the food service sector. Finally, the authors outline policy implications.

Keywords: multistakeholder engagement, food services, food waste, policy initiatives, Nigeria

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Authors: Lee Artz

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Based on content analyses of major US media, immediately following the George Floyd killing in May 2020, some mayors and local, state, and national officials offered favorable representations of protests against police violence. As the protest movement grew to historic proportions with 26 million joining actions in large cities and small towns, dominant representations of racism by elected officials and leading media shifted—replacing both the voices and demands of protestors with representations by elected officials. Major media quoted Black mayors and Congressional representatives who emphasized concerns about looting and the disruption of public safety. Media coverage privileged elected officials who criticized movement demands for defunding police and deplored isolated instances of property damaged by protestors. Subsequently, public opinion polls saw an increase in concern for law and order tropes and a decrease in support for protests against police violence. Black Lives Matter and local organizations had no coordinated response and no effective means of communication to counter dominant representations voiced by politicians and globally disseminated by major media. Politician and media-instigated public opinion shifts indicate that social movements need their own means of communication and collective decision-making--both of which were largely missing from Black Lives Matter leaders, leading to disaffection and a political split by more than 20 local affiliates. By itself, social media by myriad individuals and groups had limited purchase as a means for social movement communication and organization. Lacking a collaborative, coordinated strategy, organization, and independent media, the loose network of Black Lives Matter groups was unable to offer more accurate, democratic, and favorable representations of protests and their demands for more justice and equality. The fight for equality was diverted by the fight for representation.

Keywords: black lives matter, public opinion, racism, representations, social movements

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Authors: M. T. Alodat

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In this paper, we propose a mechanism for skewing any symmetric distribution. The new distribution is called the deflation-inflation distribution (DID). We discuss some statistical properties of the DID such moments, stochastic representation, log-concavity. Also we fit the distribution to real data and we compare it to normal distribution and Azzlaini's skew normal distribution. Numerical results show that the DID fits the the tree ring data better than the other two distributions.

Keywords: normal distribution, moments, Fisher information, symmetric distributions

Procedia PDF Downloads 658

Authors: Nadezda Kobzeva

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Under the current trend of globalization, economic and technological dynamics information and the means by which it is delivered and renewed becomes out-of-date rapidly. Thus, educational systems as well as higher education are being seriously tested. New strategies’ developing that is supported by Information and Communication Technology is urgently required. The essential educators’ mission is to meet the demands of the future by preparing our young learners with proper knowledge, skills and innovation capabilities necessary to advance our competitiveness globally. In response to the modern society and future demands, the oldest Siberian Tomsk Polytechnic University has wisely proposed several initiatives to promote the integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in education, and increase the competitiveness of graduates by emphasizing inquiry-based learning, higher order thinking and problem solving. This paper gives a brief overview of how Web Quest as ICT device is being used for language teaching and describes its use advantages for teaching English as a Foreign Language (EFL), in particular business writing skills. This study proposes to use Web Quest to promote higher order thinking and ICT integration in the process of engineers training in Tomsk Polytechnic University, Russia.

Keywords: web quest, web quest in pedagogy, resume (CVs) and cover letter writing skills, ICT integration

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Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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Authors: Ahmad Sahir Jais

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This paper is focusing on the roles played by Malaysian polytechnics in halal education in the context of technical, vocational education and training (TVET). A critical review of the previous literature, as well as documents analysis of the curriculum structure, highlighted several theme concerning dietary halal sectors in Malaysia as well as the depth of halal education ingrained in Malaysia polytechnics education system. Dietary halal in Malaysia has gained prominence exposure lately, due to the heighten awareness among Muslim consumers. Therefore, this has contributed to a surge in demand for halal food. Growth in halal sub sectors has a consequent effect with the demand for halal competent human capital resulting in demands for halal competent human capital by the industries cannot be matched by the educational institution. It can be concluded that, Malaysian Polytechnics has taken up the lead role in halal education in comparison with other academic institution in filling the needs for halal competent workers by offering halal related courses at diploma level as well as short courses for the local communities. They has successfully positioned themselves as an academic institution that meets the demands of the industry as the demand for halal competent workers which is expected to grow significantly due to new legislation introduces by the government, expansion of halal economy and increase awareness and interest in halal among consumer.

Keywords: halal in TVET, TVET, halal, Malaysian polytechnics

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Mohammed Abu Shquier

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This paper introduces a word segmentation method using the novel BP-LSTM-CRF architecture for processing semantic output training. The objective of web morphological analysis tools is to link a formal morpho-syntactic description to a lemma, along with morpho-syntactic information, a vocalized form, a vocalized analysis with morpho-syntactic information, and a list of paradigms. A key objective is to continuously enhance the proposed system through an inductive learning approach that considers semantic influences. The system is currently under construction and development based on data-driven learning. To evaluate the tool, an experiment on homograph analysis was conducted. The tool also encompasses the assumption of deep binary segmentation hypotheses, the arbitrary choice of trigram or n-gram continuation probabilities, language limitations, and morphology for both Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) and Dialectal Arabic (DA), which provide justification for updating this system. Most Arabic word analysis systems are based on the phonotactic morpho-syntactic analysis of a word transmitted using lexical rules, which are mainly used in MENA language technology tools, without taking into account contextual or semantic morphological implications. Therefore, it is necessary to have an automatic analysis tool taking into account the word sense and not only the morpho-syntactic category. Moreover, they are also based on statistical/stochastic models. These stochastic models, such as HMMs, have shown their effectiveness in different NLP applications: part-of-speech tagging, machine translation, speech recognition, etc. As an extension, we focus on language modeling using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN); given that morphological analysis coverage was very low in dialectal Arabic, it is significantly important to investigate deeply how the dialect data influence the accuracy of these approaches by developing dialectal morphological processing tools to show that dialectal variability can support to improve analysis.

Keywords: NLP, DL, ML, analyser, MSA, RNN, CNN

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Authors: Hideaki Endo, Mika Goto

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The global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected railway businesses. The number of railway passengers decreased due to the decline in the number of commuters and business travelers to avoid crowded trains and a sharp drop in inbound tourists visiting Japan. This has affected not only railway businesses but also related businesses, including hotels, leisure businesses, and retail businesses at station buildings. In 2021, the companies were divided into profitable and loss-making companies. This division suggests that railway companies, particularly loss-making companies, needed to decrease operational inefficiency. To measure the impact of COVID-19 and discuss the sustainable management strategies of railway companies, we examine the cost inefficiency of Japanese listed railway companies by applying stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to their operational and financial data. First, we employ the stochastic frontier cost function approach to measure inefficiency. The cost frontier function is formulated as a Cobb–Douglas type, and we estimated parameters and variables for inefficiency. This study uses panel data comprising 26 Japanese-listed railway companies from 2005 to 2020. This period includes several events deteriorating the business environment, such as the financial crisis from 2007 to 2008 and the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, and we compare those impacts with those of the COVID-19 pandemic after 2020. Second, we identify the characteristics of the best-practice railway companies and examine the drivers of cost inefficiencies. Third, we analyze the factors influencing cost inefficiency by comparing the profiles of the top 10 railway companies and others before and during the pandemic. Finally, we examine the relationship between cost inefficiency and the implementation of efficiency measures for each railway company. We obtained the following four findings. First, most Japanese railway companies showed the lowest cost inefficiency (most efficient) in 2014 and the highest in 2020 (least efficient) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second worst occurred in 2009 when it was affected by the financial crisis. However, we did not observe a significant impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. This is because no railway company was influenced by the earthquake in this operating area, except for JR-EAST. Second, the best-practice railway companies are KEIO and TOKYU. The main reason for their good performance is that both operate in and near the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is densely populated. Third, we found that non-best-practice companies had a larger decrease in passenger kilometers than best-practice companies. This indicates that passengers made fewer long-distance trips because they refrained from inter-prefectural travel during the pandemic. Finally, we found that companies that implement more efficiency improvement measures had higher cost efficiency and they effectively used their customer databases through proactive DX investments in marketing and asset management.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, stochastic frontier analysis, railway sector, cost efficiency

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Authors: Sungwon Jung

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The percentage of 20 years or older apartment houses in South Korea is approximately 20% (1.55 million houses), and the explosive increase of aged houses is expected around the first planned new towns. Accordingly, we should prepare for social issues such as difficulty of housing lease and degradation of housing performance. The improvement of performance of aged houses is essential for achieving the national energy and carbon reduction goals, and we should develop techniques to respond to the changing construction environment. Furthermore, we should develop a performance evaluation system that is appropriate for the demands of residents such as the improvement of remodeling floor plan by performance improvement in line with the residence type of the housing vulnerable groups such as low-income group and elderly people living alone. For this purpose, remodeling techniques and business models optimized for the target complexes must be spread through the development of various business models. In addition, it is necessary to improve the remodeling business by improving the laws and systems related to the improvement of the residential performance and to prepare techniques to respond to the increasing business demands. In other words, performance improvement and evaluation and knowledge systems need to be researched as new issues related to remodeling that has not been addressed in the existing research.

Keywords: remodelling, performance evaluation, web-based system, big data

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Authors: Mohammed Bashir Uddin

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Human trafficking remains as a persistent problem in many parts of the world. It is considered by many countries as an issue of a threat to national security. Border enforcement to prevent trafficking has been the main incentive, which eventually causes human insecurity for vulnerable people, especially for women. This research argues that focus needs to be placed on the political economy of trafficking, hence on the supply and demand sides of trafficking from a broader socio-economic perspective. Trafficking is a global phenomenon with its contemporary origins in the international capitalist market system. This research investigates particularly the supply-demand nexus on the backdrop of globalization and its impact on human security. It argues that the nexus varies across the countries, particularly the demand side. While prostitution has been the sole focus of the demand side in all countries in Asia, the paper argues that organ trade, bonded labor, cheap and exploitable labor through false recruitment (male trafficking) and adoption are some of the rising demands that explore new trends of trafficking, which could be better explained through international political economy (IPE). Following a qualitative research method, the paper argues that although demands vary in destination countries, they are the byproducts of IPE which have different socio-economic impacts both on trafficked individuals and the states.

Keywords: globalization, human security, human trafficking, political economy

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Authors: Catalina Oana Dumitrescu, Andreea L. Drugau-constantin

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In the digital age, public administration is facing profound change, fueled by technological advances and the growing demands of citizens for efficient, accessible and transparent services. This paper explores how new digital technologies – including artificial intelligence, blockchain, big data and e-governance solutions – are reshaping the functioning of public administrations globally. In addition to the obvious opportunities to streamline and optimize processes, digital transformation brings with it major challenges, such as cyber security, personal data protection, resistance to change and the need to develop new skills for employees. The paper aims to provide a discussion platform for public administration experts, policy makers and technology innovators to consider how governments can balance the benefits and risks of digital transformation. Topics such as the reconfiguration of administrative processes, the creation of interoperable government systems, the involvement of citizens in public decisions through digital platforms, and solutions for reducing the digital gap between developed and developing regions will be addressed. In conclusion, the digital transformation of public administration is not only an opportunity for modernization, but also a necessity to respond to the new demands and challenges of contemporary society. This paper will provide new insights into the role of technology in improving the quality of governance and public services.

Keywords: public administration, digital ERA, technology, government systems, global

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Authors: P. Selyshchev

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We consider fluctuations of defects density taking into account their interaction. Stochastic field of displacement generation rate gives random defect distribution. We determinate statistical characteristics (mean and dispersion) of random field of point defect distribution as function of defect generation parameters, temperature and properties of irradiated crystal.

Keywords: irradiation, primary defects, interaction, fluctuations

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Authors: N. F. Hanna, A. M. Haridy

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One of the main drawbacks of the Modal Pushover Analysis (MPA) is the need to perform nonlinear time-history analysis, which complicates the analysis method and time. A simplified version of the MPA has been proposed based on the concept of the inelastic deformation ratio. Furthermore, the effect of the higher modes of vibration is considered by assuming linearly-elastic responses, which enables the use of standard elastic response spectrum analysis. In this thesis, the simplified MPA (SMPA) method is applied to determine the target global drift and the inter-story drifts of steel frame building. The effect of the higher vibration modes is considered within the framework of the SMPA. A comprehensive survey about the inelastic deformation ratio is presented. After that, a suitable expression from literature is selected for the inelastic deformation ratio and then implemented in the SMPA. The estimated seismic demands using the SMPA, such as target drift, base shear, and the inter-story drifts, are compared with the seismic responses determined by applying the standard MPA. The accuracy of the estimated seismic demands is validated by comparing with the results obtained by the nonlinear time-history analysis using real earthquake records.

Keywords: modal analysis, pushover analysis, seismic performance, target displacement

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Authors: Konstantinos Liagkouras, Konstantinos Metaxiotis

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In this paper we present a classification of the various technologies applied for the solution of the portfolio selection problem according to the discipline and the methodological framework followed. We provide a concise presentation of the emerged categories and we are trying to identify which methods considered obsolete and which lie at the heart of the debate. On top of that, we provide a comparative study of the different technologies applied for efficient portfolio construction and we suggest potential paths for future work that lie at the intersection of the presented techniques.

Keywords: portfolio selection, optimization techniques, financial models, stochastic, heuristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: Baharak Mousapour

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Creating public spaces which are tailored for the specific demands of the individuals is one of the challenges for the contemporary interior designers. Improving the general knowledge as well as providing a forum for all walks of life to exploit is one of the objectives of a public library. In this regard, interior design in consistent with the demands of the individuals is of paramount importance. Seemingly, study spaces, in particular, those in close relation to the personalized sector, have proven to be challenging, according to the literature. To address this challenge, attributes of individuals, namely, perception of people from public spaces and their interactions with the so-called spaces, should be analyzed to provide interior designers with something to work on. This paper follows the analytic-descriptive research methodology by outlining case study libraries which have personalized public libraries with the investigation of the type of personalization as its primary objective and (I) recognition of physical schedule and the know-how of the spatial connection in indoor design of a library and (II) analysis of each personalized space in relation to other spaces of the library as its secondary objectives. The significance of the current research lies in the concept of personalization as one of the most recent methods of attracting people to libraries. Previous research exists in this regard, but the lack of data concerning personalization makes this topic worth investigating. Hence, this study aims to put forward approaches through real-case studies for the designers to deal with this concept.

Keywords: interior design, library, library design, personalization

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Authors: Danielle Katrina Santos, Koji Shimada

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Environmentally-friendly agriculture has been promoted for over two decades as a response to the environmental challenges brought by climate change and biological loss. Located above the equator, it is possible that Japan may benefit from future climate change, yet Japan is also a rarely developed country located in the Asian Monsoon climate region, making it vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this regard, the Japanese government has initiated policies to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change through the promotion and popularization of environmentally-friendly farming practices. This study aims to determine profit efficiency among environmentally-friendly rice farmers in Shiga Prefecture using the Stochastic Frontier Approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 66 farmers from top rice-producing cities through a structured questionnaire. Results showed that the gross farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was higher by JPY 316,223.00/ha. Production costs were also found to be higher among environmentally-friendly rice farmers, especially on labor costs, which accounted for 32% of the total rice production cost. The resulting net farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was only higher by JPY 18,044/ha. Results from the stochastic frontier analysis further showed that the profit efficiency of conventional farmers was only 69% as compared to environmentally-friendly rice farmers who had a profit efficiency of 76%. Furthermore, environmentally-friendly agriculture participation, other types of subsidy, educational level, and farm size were significant factors positively influencing profit efficiency. The study concluded that substitution of environmentally-friendly agriculture for conventional rice farming would result in an increased profit efficiency due to the direct payment subsidy and price premium received. The direct government policies that would strengthen the popularization of environmentally-friendly agriculture to increase the production of environmentally-friendly products and reduce pollution load to the Lake Biwa ecosystem.

Keywords: profit efficiency, environmentally-friendly agriculture, rice farmers, direct payment subsidies

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Authors: Halimah Abdul Manaf, Ahmad Martadha Mohamed, Zainal M. Zan, Nur Rusydina Khadzali

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Strengthening accountability among civil servants has been at the centre of government transformation ever since the country is striving to become a developed nation by the year 2020. One critical area that has become the loci of attention is increasing the accountability of local government by delivering services that are preferred by the communities. This article explores the practices of citizen participation and political accountability in local government in Malaysia. The existing literature has identified a mismatch between the demands of the community and the actual services delivered by the local government. Based upon this framework, this research attempts to examine the linkages between citizen participation and political accountability in selected local governments in Malaysia. This study employs quantitative method involving 1155 respondents who were randomly selected from local government personnel as well as local citizens. The instruments in the questionnaires were adopted from Wang and Wart (2007) who have also studied local government accountability. The findings reveal that respondents are satisfied with the services provided to the community. However, three areas of concerned are the inadequacy of citizens’ participation in programs, immediate actions on complaints as well as the slow response to repair dilapidated basic infrastructures such as roads, park, and recreations. It is recommended that local governments in Malaysia continue to engage the citizens in the decision making process so that the needs and demands of the citizens can be adequately fulfilled.

Keywords: citizen participation, political accountability, local government, Malaysia

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Authors: Shaibu Baanni Azumah, William Adzawla

Abstract:

Rice is an important staple crop, with current demand higher than the domestic supply in Ghana. This has led to a high and unfavourable import bill. Therefore, recent policies and interventions in the agricultural sub-sector aim at promoting various improved agricultural technologies in order to improve domestic production and reduce the importation of rice. In this study, we examined the effect of the adoption of Urea Deep Placement (UDP) technology by rice farmers on the position of the production frontier. This involved 200 farmers selected through a multi stage sampling technique in the Northern region of Ghana. A Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier model was fitted. The result showed that the adoption of UDP technology shifts the output frontier outward and also move the farmers closer to the frontier. Farmers were also operating under diminishing returns to scale which calls for redress. Other factors that significantly influenced rice production were farm size, labour, use of certified seeds and NPK fertilizer. Although there was an opportunity for improvement, the farmers were highly efficient (92%), compared to previous studies. Farmers’ efficiency was improved through increased education, household size, experience, access to credit, and lack of extension service provision by MoFA. The study recommends the revision of Ghana’s agricultural policy to include the UDP technology. Agricultural Extension officers of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) should be trained on the UDP technology to support IFDC’s drive to improve adoption by rice farmers. Rice farmers are also encouraged to expand their farm lands, improve plant population, and also increase the usage of fertilizer to improve yields. Mechanisms through which credit can be made easily accessible and effectively utilised should be identified and promoted.

Keywords: efficiency, rice farmers, stochastic frontier, UDP technology

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Authors: Il-Ho Kim, Samuel Noh, Kwame McKenzie, Cyu-Chul Choi

Abstract:

Introduction: The ‘stress of higher status’ hypothesis suggests that workers with higher-status occupations are more likely to experience work-to-family conflict (WFC) than those with lower-status occupations. Yet, the occupational difference in WFC and its mechanisms have not been explicitly explored within Asian culture. This present study examines (a) the association between occupational status and WFC and (b) the mediating roles of work-related stressors and resources, focused on gender perspectives using a sample of Korean immigrants. Methods: Data were derived from a cross-sectional survey of foreign born Korean immigrants who were currently working at least two years in the Greater Area of Toronto or surrounding towns. The sample was stratified for equivalent presentations of micro-business owners (N=555) and paid employees in diverse occupational categories (N=733). Results: We found gender differences and similarities in the link between occupational status and WFC and the mediating roles of work-related variables. Compared to skilled/unskilled counterparts, male immigrants in professional, service, and microbusiness jobs reported higher levels of WFC, whereas female immigrants in higher-status occupations were more likely to have WFC with the exception of the highest levels of WFC among microbusiness owners. Regardless of gender, both male and female immigrants who have longer weekly work hours, shift work schedule, and high emotional and psychological demands were significantly associated with high levels of WFC. However, skill development was related to WFC only among male immigrants. Regarding the mediating roles of work-related factors, among female immigrants, the occupational difference in WFC was fully mediated by weekly work hours, shift work schedule, and emotional and psychological demands with the exception of the case of microbusiness workers. Among male immigrants, the occupational differences remained virtually unchanged after controlling for these mediators. Conclusions: Our results partially confirmed the ‘stress of higher status’ hypothesis among female immigrants. Additionally, work-related stressors seem to be critical mediators of the link between occupations and WFC only for female immigrants.

Keywords: work-to-family conflict, gender, work conditions, job demands, job resources

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Authors: Andres F. Ramirez, Carlos F. Valencia

Abstract:

The increasing interest in renewable energies strategies application and the path for diminishing the use of carbon related energy sources have encouraged the development of novel strategies for integration of solar energy into the electricity network. A correct inclusion of the fluctuating energy output of a photovoltaic (PV) energy system into an electric grid requires improvements in the forecasting and simulation methodologies for solar energy potential, and the understanding not only of the mean value of the series but the associated underlying stochastic process. We present a methodology for synthetic generation of solar irradiance (shortwave flux) and air temperature bivariate time series based on copula functions to represent the cross-dependence and temporal structure of the data. We explore the advantages of using this nonlinear time series method over traditional approaches that use a transformation of the data to normal distributions as an intermediate step. The use of copulas gives flexibility to represent the serial variability of the real data on the simulation and allows having more control on the desired properties of the data. We use discrete zero mass density distributions to assess the nature of solar irradiance, alongside vector generalized linear models for the bivariate time series time dependent distributions. We found that the copula autoregressive methodology used, including the zero mass characteristics of the solar irradiance time series, generates a significant improvement over state of the art strategies. These results will help to better understand the fluctuating nature of solar energy forecasting, the underlying stochastic process, and quantify the potential of a photovoltaic (PV) energy generating system integration into a country electricity network. Experimental analysis and real data application substantiate the usage and convenience of the proposed methodology to forecast solar irradiance time series and solar energy across northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere, and equatorial zones.

Keywords: copula autoregressive, solar irradiance forecasting, solar energy forecasting, time series generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 323