Search results for: robust optimisation model

Authors: Philip Symonds, Jon Taylor, Zaid Chalabi, Michael Davies

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With the world climate projected to warm and major cities in developing countries becoming increasingly populated and polluted, governments are tasked with the problem of overheating and air quality in residential buildings. This paper presents the development of an adaptable model of these risks. Simulations are performed using the EnergyPlus building physics software. An accurate metamodel is formed by randomly sampling building input parameters and training on the outputs of EnergyPlus simulations. Metamodels are used to vastly reduce the amount of computation time required when performing optimisation and sensitivity analyses. Neural Networks (NNs) are compared to a Radial Basis Function (RBF) algorithm when forming a metamodel. These techniques were implemented using the PyBrain and scikit-learn python libraries, respectively. NNs are shown to perform around 15% better than RBFs when estimating overheating and air pollution metrics modelled by EnergyPlus.

Keywords: neural networks, radial basis functions, metamodelling, python machine learning libraries

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Authors: Leila Khosravi

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A major part of the drinking water in North West of Iran is supplied from Mahabad reservoir 80 km northwest of Mahabad. This reservoir collects water from 750 km-catchment which is undergoing accelerated changes due to deforestation and urbanization. The main objective of this study is to develop a catchment modeling platform which translates ongoing land-use changes, soil data, precipitation and evaporation into surface runoff of the river discharging into the reservoir: Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT, model along with hydro -meteorological records of 1997–2011. A variety of statistical indices were used to evaluate the simulation results for both calibration and validation periods; among them, the robust Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients were found to be 0.52 and 0.62 in the calibration and validation periods, respectively. This project has developed a reliable modeling platform with the benchmark land physical conditions of the Mahabad dam basin.

Keywords: simulation, surface runoff, Mahabad dam, SWAT model

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari

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The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.

Keywords: multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, stick model

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Authors: A. Roomy

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The dramatic rise in violence against game officials has affected all levels of sports including recreational, amateur, and professional sports. One way to combat this rise in violence is through the creation of laws specifically aimed at preventing and punishing this kind of violence. This paper will use related legal cases as a starting point to explore possible ways of better protecting the safety of game officials. It will do this by looking at relevant cases, related legal issues, and two specific ways of reducing violence against game officials. In closing, it will be argued that there needs to be a more robust legal approach with emphasis on criminal and civil penalties for assault and battery, and a more comprehensive social approach with emphasis on raising social awareness on the need to protect game officials from violence.

Keywords: game officials, legal issues, safety, violence

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Viktor M. Denisov

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A robust sequential nonparametric method is proposed for adaptation to background noise parameters for real-time. The distribution of background noise was modelled like to Huber contamination mixture. The method is designed to operate as an adaptation-unit, which is included inside a detection subsystem of an integrated multichannel monitoring system. The proposed method guarantees the given size of a nonasymptotic confidence set for noise parameters. Properties of the suggested method are rigorously proved. The proposed algorithm has been successfully tested in real conditions of a functioning C-OTDR monitoring system, which was designed to monitor railways.

Keywords: guaranteed estimation, multichannel monitoring systems, non-asymptotic confidence set, contamination mixture

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Authors: Macdonald Kanyangale, Sandram Naluso

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Globally, researchers have struggled over time to adequately define the notion of health system to inform research. This study is significant because it proposes an integrative framework for a robust definition of the health system. The objective of this article is to examine major pitfalls in definitions of health system used in prior literature and implications of these for research and management. The study used methodological steps of a scoping review proposed by Arksey and O'Malley to identify and examine 24 definitions of a health system in articles selected from six databases and web search engines. Thematic analysis was used to delineate and categorise definitional pitfalls into broader themes. There are a plethora of five major pitfalls in the extant definitions of a health system which may easily scupper any unsuspecting researcher if not avoided or addressed in research. These definitional pitfalls are reductionist assumptions which ignore dynamic and complex connections, overly wide boundary and lack of specification of levels in a health system, and limited focus on process in a health system. In addition, there is the tendency of treating different components of the health system as equal and simplifying of the ontological complexity of the health system. Future scholars are advised to avoid or address the identified five major pitfalls if they are to develop robust definitions of an HS. The use of an integrative framework for a robust definition of a health system is recommended, while implications of the pitfalls are discussed as a basis and catalyst for complexity-informed research and managing interactively.

Keywords: complexity management, health system, pitfalls, reductionism, research

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Authors: Mohammed Benlemlih

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Using a sample of 22,839 US firm-year observations over the 1991-2012 period, we find that high CSR firms pay more dividends than low CSR firms. The analysis of individual components of CSR provides strong support for this main finding: five of the six individual dimensions are also associated with high dividend payout. When analyzing the stability of dividend payout, our results show that socially irresponsible firms adjust dividends more rapidly than socially responsible firms do: dividend payout is more stable in high CSR firms. Additional results suggest that firms involved in two controversial activities -the military and alcohol - are associated with low dividend payouts. These findings are robust to alternative assumptions and model specifications, alternative measures of dividend, additional control, and several approaches to address endogeneity. Overall, our results are consistent with the expectation that high CSR firms may use dividend policy to manage the agency problems related to overinvestment in CSR.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, dividend policy, Lintner model, agency theory, signaling theory, dividend stability

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Authors: Husam Kaid, Abdulrahman Al-Ahmari, Zhiwu Li

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This paper develops a robust deadlock control technique for shared and unreliable resources in automated manufacturing systems (AMSs) based on structural analysis and colored Petri nets, which consists of three steps. The first step involves using strict minimal siphon control to create a live (deadlock-free) system that does not consider resource failure. The second step uses an approach based on colored Petri net, in which all monitors designed in the first step are merged into a single monitor. The third step addresses the deadlock control problems caused by resource failures. For all resource failures in the Petri net model a common recovery subnet based on colored petri net is proposed. The common recovery subnet is added to the obtained system at the second step to make the system reliable. The proposed approach is evaluated using an AMS from the literature. The results show that the proposed approach can be applied to an unreliable complex Petri net model, has a simpler structure and less computational complexity, and can obtain one common recovery subnet to model all resource failures.

Keywords: automated manufacturing system, colored Petri net, deadlocks, siphon

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Authors: Ayman M. Mansour, Bilal Hawashin, Hesham Alsalem

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Faster delivery of laboratory test results is one of the most noticeable signs of good laboratory service and is often used as a key performance indicator of laboratory performance. Despite the availability of technology, the delivery time of clinical laboratory test results continues to be a cause of customer dissatisfaction which makes patients feel frustrated and they became careless to get their laboratory test results. The Medical Clinical Laboratory test results are highly sensitive and could harm patients especially with the severe case if they deliver in wrong time. Such results affect the treatment done by physicians if arrived at correct time efforts should, therefore, be made to ensure faster delivery of lab test results by utilizing new trusted, Robust and fast system. In this paper, we proposed a distributed Multi-Agent System to enhance and faster the process of laboratory test results delivery using SMS. The developed system relies on SMS messages because of the wide availability of GSM network comparing to the other network. The software provides the capability of knowledge sharing between different units and different laboratory medical centers. The system was built using java programming. To implement the proposed system we had many possible techniques. One of these is to use the peer-to-peer (P2P) model, where all the peers are treated equally and the service is distributed among all the peers of the network. However, for the pure P2P model, it is difficult to maintain the coherence of the network, discover new peers and ensure security. Also, security is a quite important issue since each node is allowed to join the network without any control mechanism. We thus take the hybrid P2P model, a model between the Client/Server model and the pure P2P model using GSM technology through SMS messages. This model satisfies our need. A GUI has been developed to provide the laboratory staff with the simple and easy way to interact with the system. This system provides quick response rate and the decision is faster than the manual methods. This will save patients life.

Keywords: multi-agent system, delivery process, GSM technology, clinical laboratory results

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Authors: Mechlouch Ridha Fethi

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This paper presents a recent mathematical model in political sciences concerning democracy. The model is represented by a logarithmic equation linking the Relative Index of Democracy (RID) to Participation Ratio (PR). Firstly the meanings of the different parameters of the model were presented; and the variation curve of the RID according to PR with different critical areas was discussed. Secondly, the model was applied to a virtual group where we show that the model can be applied depending on the gender. Thirdly, it was observed that the model can be extended to different language models of democracy and that little use to assess the state of democracy for some International organizations like UNO.

Keywords: democracy, mathematic, modelization, quantification

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Authors: Ibrahim Isa Ali (Pantami), Abdu Jaafaru Bambale, Abimbola Alale, Danjuma Ibrahim Ndihgihdah, Muhammad Alkali, Adamu Idris Umar, Samson Olufunmilayo Abodunrin, Muhammad Dokko Zubairu, Moshood Kareem

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This paper discusses the consideration and trade-offs used for the implementation of robust systems for orbit stability; Telemetry, Command and Ranging (TC& R) for Nigcomsat-1R and applicability for planned NigComSat-2 satellites. NigComSat-1R satellite was built by China Academy of Space Technology (CAST). The Satellite designed with quad-band payload (L, C, Ku, and Ka) was launched on the 20th of December 2011. The functionality of all satellite is driven by robust systems including Attitude & Orbit Control System (AOCS) and TC&R. The planned Nigcomsat-2 is a high throughput Satellite expected to function with better AOCS and TC&R.

Keywords: AOCS, CAST, Nigcomsat-1R, TC&R

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Authors: Le Kang

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On the research question of 'how to achieve USR', this contribution reflects the concept of university social responsibility, identify three achievement models of USR as the society - diversified model, the university-cooperation model, the government - compound model, also conduct a case study to explore characteristics of Chinese achievement model of USR. The contribution concludes with discussion of how the university, government and society balance demands and roles, make necessarily strategic adjustment and innovative approach to repair the shortcomings of each achievement model.

Keywords: modern university, USR, achievement model, compound model

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Authors: Joseph Lillington, Tom Gout, Mike Harrison, Ian Farnan

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The vitrification of high-level nuclear waste within borosilicate glass and its incorporation within a multi-barrier repository deep underground is widely accepted as the preferred disposal method. However, for this to happen, any safety case will require validation that the initially localized radionuclides will not be considerably released into the near/far-field. Therefore, accurate mechanistic models are necessary to predict glass dissolution, and these should be robust to a variety of incorporated waste species and leaching test conditions, particularly given substantial variations across international waste-streams. Here, machine learning is used to predict glass material properties (viscosity, density) and glass leaching model parameters from large-scale industrial data. A variety of different machine learning algorithms have been compared to assess performance. Density was predicted solely from composition, whereas viscosity additionally considered temperature. To predict suitable glass leaching model parameters, a large simulated dataset was created by coupling MATLAB and the chemical reactive-transport code HYTEC, considering the state-of-the-art GRAAL model (glass reactivity in allowance of the alteration layer). The trained models were then subsequently applied to the large-scale industrial, experimental data to identify potentially appropriate model parameters. Results indicate that ensemble methods can accurately predict viscosity as a function of temperature and composition across all three industrial datasets. Glass density prediction shows reliable learning performance with predictions primarily being within the experimental uncertainty of the test data. Furthermore, machine learning can predict glass dissolution model parameters behavior, demonstrating potential value in GRAAL model development and in assessing suitable model parameters for large-scale industrial glass dissolution data.

Keywords: machine learning, predictive modelling, pattern recognition, radioactive waste glass

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Authors: Faisal Zaman, Ya Ping Wong, Boon Yian Ng

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Point cloud source data for surface reconstruction is usually contaminated with noise and outliers. To overcome this, we present a novel approach using modified kernel density estimation (KDE) technique with bilateral filtering to remove noisy points and outliers. First we present a method for estimating optimal bandwidth of multivariate KDE using particle swarm optimization technique which ensures the robust performance of density estimation. Then we use mean-shift algorithm to find the local maxima of the density estimation which gives the centroid of the clusters. Then we compute the distance of a certain point from the centroid. Points belong to outliers then removed by automatic thresholding scheme which yields an accurate and economical point surface. The experimental results show that our approach comparably robust and efficient.

Keywords: point preprocessing, outlier removal, surface reconstruction, kernel density estimation

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Authors: Troels Bo Jørgensen, Preben Hagh Strunge Holm, Henrik Gordon Petersen, Norbert Kruger

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This paper presents a simulation framework for using machine learning techniques to determine robust robotic motions for handling deformable objects. The main focus is on applications in the meat sector, which mainly handle three-dimensional objects. In order to optimize the robotic handling, the robot motions have been parameterized in terms of grasp points, robot trajectory and robot speed. The motions are evaluated based on a dynamic simulation environment for robotic control of deformable objects. The evaluation indicates certain parameter setups, which produce robust motions in the simulated environment, and based on a visual analysis indicate satisfactory solutions for a real world system.

Keywords: deformable objects, robotic manipulation, simulation, real world system

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Authors: Shriya Shukla, Lachin Fernando

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Pneumonia, a leading cause of mortality in young children globally, presents significant diagnostic challenges, particularly in resource-limited settings. This study presents an approach to diagnosing pediatric pneumonia using Chest X-Ray (CXR) images, employing a lightweight MobileNetV2 model enhanced with synthetic data augmentation. Addressing the challenge of dataset scarcity and imbalance, the study used a Variational Autoencoder-Generative Adversarial Network (VAE-GAN) to generate synthetic CXR images, improving the representation of normal cases in the pediatric dataset. This approach not only addresses the issues of data imbalance and scarcity prevalent in medical imaging but also provides a more accessible and reliable diagnostic tool for early pneumonia detection. The augmented data improved the model’s accuracy and generalization, achieving an overall accuracy of 95% in pneumonia detection. These findings highlight the efficacy of the MobileNetV2 model, offering a computationally efficient yet robust solution well-suited for resource-constrained environments such as mobile health applications. This study demonstrates the potential of synthetic data augmentation in enhancing medical image analysis for critical conditions like pediatric pneumonia.

Keywords: pneumonia, MobileNetV2, image classification, GAN, VAE, deep learning

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Authors: Alsaidi M. Altaher, Mohd Tahir Ismail

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Wavelet thresholding has been a power tool in curve estimation and data analysis. In the presence of outliers this non parametric estimator can not suppress the outliers involved. This study proposes a new two-stage combined method based on the use of the median filter as primary step before applying wavelet thresholding. After suppressing the outliers in a signal through the median filter, the classical wavelet thresholding is then applied for removing the remaining noise. We use automatic boundary corrections; using a low order polynomial model or local polynomial model as a more realistic rule to correct the bias at the boundary region; instead of using the classical assumptions such periodic or symmetric. A simulation experiment has been conducted to evaluate the numerical performance of the proposed method. Results show strong evidences that the proposed method is extremely effective in terms of correcting the boundary bias and eliminating outlier’s sensitivity.

Keywords: boundary correction, median filter, simulation, wavelet thresholding

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Authors: Martin Bugeja, Helen Spiropolos

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Using a sample of U.S. firms during the period 1993-2015, this study examines whether mergers and acquisitions (M&A) impact the compensation of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) in the bidding and integration phases of M&As. The study finds that after controlling for CEO power, CFOs’ total compensation is higher during M&A years and is driven by higher equity incentives. These results are robust to controlling for self-selection. Furthermore, CFOs receive a greater bonus during the year of acquisition and the year prior. The study also investigates if CFO compensation during M&A years is driven by M&A characteristics and finds that deal size and diversification are positively related to total compensation while completion time is negatively related. The results are robust to a number of sensitivity tests and additional analyses.

Keywords: chief financial officer, compensation, mergers, acquisitions

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Authors: M. S. Annie Christi

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Transportation Problem (TP) is based on supply and demand of commodities transported from one source to the different destinations. Usual methods for finding solution of TPs are North-West Corner Rule, Least Cost Method Vogel’s Approximation Method etc. The transportation costs tend to vary at each time. We can use fuzzy numbers which would give solution according to this situation. In this study the Best Candidate Method (BCM) is applied. For ranking Centroid Ranking Technique (CRT) and Robust Ranking Technique have been adopted to transform the fuzzy TP and the above methods are applied to EDWARDS Vacuum Company, Crawley, in West Sussex in the United Kingdom. A Comparative study is also given. We see that the transportation cost can be minimized by the application of CRT under BCM.

Keywords: best candidate method, centroid ranking technique, fuzzy transportation problem, robust ranking technique, transportation problem

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Authors: Chin-Ho Lin

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This study explores the impact of technical barriers to trade(TBT) on the import value and weight of 54 types of waste products between ASEAN+6 countries and 200 trading partners from 1999–to 2018. By using disaggregated detailed product data and the gravity model, we obtained results demonstrating that implementation of TBT by importing countries is likely to enhance waste trade. After controlling for three combinations of fixed effects, the results remain robust. We consider the quality of waste products by dividing waste products into recyclable and nonrecyclable materials, revealing that imported recyclable waste is more likely to be imported than nonrecyclable waste. When waste trade isregulated by importing countries through TBT implementation, the exporting countries may export relatively valuable waste products, and recyclable waste is of greater economic value because it can be used as an input in other production processes. Finally, developed countries are more likely than developing countries to export waste to the ASEAN+6countries, a finding that supports the waste haven hypothesis.

Keywords: waste trade, ASEAN+6, technical barriers to trade, gravity model, waste haven hypothesis

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Authors: Nikolaos Simantiris, Markos Avlonitis

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This work builds a simulation platform, modeling the spatial diffusion of the invasive species Callinectes sapidus (blue crab) as a random walk, incorporating also generation, fatality, and fishing rates modeling the time evolution of its population. Antinioti lagoon in West Greece was used as a testbed for applying the simulation model. Field measurements from June 2020 to June 2021 on the lagoon’s setting, bathymetry, and blue crab juveniles provided the initial population simulation of blue crabs, as well as biological parameters from the current literature were used to calibrate simulation parameters. The scope of this study is to render the authors able to predict the evolution of the blue crab population in confined environments of the Ionian Islands region in West Greece. The first result of the simulation experiments shows the possibility for a robust prediction for blue crab population evolution in the Antinioti lagoon.

Keywords: antinioti lagoon, blue crab, stochastic simulation, random walk

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Authors: Carlos Gonzalez, Neil Slatcher, Marcus Properzi, Kan Seah

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In many underground mining operations, shotcrete is used for permanent rock support. Shotcrete thickness is a critical measure of the success of this process. 3D Laser Mapping, in conjunction with Jetcrete, has developed a 3D laser scanning system specifically for measuring the thickness of shotcrete. The system is mounted on the shotcrete spraying machine and measures the rock faces before and after spraying. The calculated difference between the two 3D surface models is measured as the thickness of the sprayed concrete. Typical work patterns for the shotcrete process required a rapid and automatic system. The scanning takes place immediately before and after the application of the shotcrete so no convergence takes place in the interval between scans. Automatic alignment of scans without targets was implemented which allows for the possibility of movement of the spraying machine between scans. Case studies are presented where accuracy tests are undertaken and automatic audit reports are calculated. The use of 3D imaging data for the calculation of shotcrete thickness is an important tool for geotechnical engineers and contract managers, and this could become the new state-of-the-art methodology for the mining industry.

Keywords: 3D imaging, shotcrete, surface model, tunnel stability

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Authors: J. Ritonja, R. Brezovnik, M. Petrun, B. Polajžer

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Many modern synchronous generators in power systems are extremely weakly damped. The reasons are cost optimization of the machine building and introduction of the additional control equipment into power systems. Oscillations of the synchronous generators and related stability problems of the power systems are harmful and can lead to failures in operation and to damages. The only useful solution to increase damping of the unwanted oscillations represents the implementation of the power system stabilizers. Power system stabilizers generate the additional control signal which changes synchronous generator field excitation voltage. Modern power system stabilizers are integrated into static excitation systems of the synchronous generators. Available commercial power system stabilizers are based on linear control theory. Due to the nonlinear dynamics of the synchronous generator, current stabilizers do not assure optimal damping of the synchronous generator’s oscillations in the entire operating range. For that reason the use of the robust power system stabilizers which are convenient for the entire operating range is reasonable. There are numerous robust techniques applicable for the power system stabilizers. In this paper the use of sliding mode control for synchronous generator stability improvement is studied. On the basis of the sliding mode theory, the robust power system stabilizer was developed. The main advantages of the sliding mode controller are simple realization of the control algorithm, robustness to parameter variations and elimination of disturbances. The advantage of the proposed sliding mode controller against conventional linear controller was tested for damping of the synchronous generator oscillations in the entire operating range. Obtained results show the improved damping in the entire operating range of the synchronous generator and the increase of the power system stability. The proposed study contributes to the progress in the development of the advanced stabilizer, which will replace conventional linear stabilizers and improve damping of the synchronous generators.

Keywords: control theory, power system stabilizer, robust control, sliding mode control, stability, synchronous generator

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Authors: Viet-Hung Truong, Seung-Eock Kim

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This paper presents a robust software package for practical advanced analysis of space steel framed structures. The pre- and post-processors of the presented software package are coded in the C++ programming language while the solver is written by using the FORTRAN programming language. A user-friendly graphical interface of the presented software is developed to facilitate the modeling process and result interpretation of the problem. The solver employs the stability functions for capturing the second-order effects to minimize modeling and computational time. Both the plastic-hinge and fiber-hinge beam-column elements are available in the presented software. The generalized displacement control method is adopted to solve the nonlinear equilibrium equations.

Keywords: advanced analysis, beam-column, fiber-hinge, plastic hinge, steel frame

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Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

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Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

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Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

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Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

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Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Anyia Nduka, Aslan Bin Amad Senin

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Environmental degradation and infrastructure abuse in the Niger Delta have received increasing attention over the last two decades in several sectors, like strategic management, societal impacts, etc. Resilience strategy in human capital development and technology has inspired the formulation and implementation of strategies, policies, or activities to mitigate risks while taking advantage of opportunities to respond to crisis management. This research hopes to add to the debate on the resilient strategic model in the Niger Delta region, which is plagued with environmental and infrastructure mismanagement. It further proposes a conceptual framework of robust strategy and open technology model on bibliometric analysis. This article is intended to be a starting point for an in-depth discussion of the factors that lead to these mismanagements. Four factors were discovered for a resilient strategy leading to a more efficient and effective management procedure.

Keywords: resilience strategy, infrastructural mismanagement, human capital development., strategic management

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: price-optimal building climate control, Microgrid power flow optimisation, hierarchical model predictive control, energy efficient buildings, energy market participation

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Authors: Sonia Hirt

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The Planner's Triangle, an oft-cited model that visually defined planning as the search for sustainability to balance the three basic priorities of equity, economy, and environment, has influenced planning theory and practice for a quarter of a century. In this essay, we argue that the triangle requires updating and expansion. Even if planners keep sustainability as their key core aspiration at the center of their imaginary geometry, the triangle's vertices have to be rethought. Planners should move on to a 21st-century concept. We propose a Planner's Pentangle with five basic priorities as vertices of a new conceptual polygon. These five priorities are Wellbeing, Equity, Economy, Environment, and Esthetics (WE⁴). The WE⁴ concept more accurately and fully represents planning’s history. This is especially true in the United States, where public art and public health played pivotal roles in the establishment of the profession in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. It also more accurately represents planning’s future. Both health/wellness and aesthetic concerns are becoming increasingly important in the 21st century. The pentangle can become an effective tool for understanding and visualizing planning's history and present. Planning has a long history of representing urban presents and future as conceptual models in visual form. Such models can play an important role in understanding and shaping practice. For over two decades, one such model, the Planner's Triangle, stood apart as the expression of planning's pursuit for sustainability. But if the model is outdated and insufficiently robust, it can diminish our understanding of planning practice, as well as the appreciation of the profession among non-planners. Thus, we argue for a new conceptual model of what planners do.

Keywords: sustainable development, planning for sustainable development, planner's triangle, planner's pentangle, planning and health, planning and art, planning history

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