Search results for: fire weather
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1327

Search results for: fire weather

1087 Gradient-Based Reliability Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in Ningbo, China

Authors: Da LI, Peng Xu

Abstract:

Recent extreme weather events, such as the 2021 European floods and North American heatwaves, have exposed the vulnerability of energy systems to both extreme demand scenarios and potential physical damage. Current integrated energy system designs often overlook performance under these challenging conditions. This research, focusing on a regional integrated energy system in Ningbo, China, proposes a distinct design method to optimize system reliability during extreme events. A multi-scenario model was developed, encompassing various extreme load conditions and potential system damages caused by severe weather. Based on this model, a comprehensive reliability improvement scheme was designed, incorporating a gradient approach to address different levels of disaster severity through the integration of advanced technologies like distributed energy storage. The scheme's effectiveness was validated through Monte Carlo simulations. Results demonstrate significant enhancements in energy supply reliability and peak load reduction capability under extreme scenarios. The findings provide several insights for improving energy system adaptability in the face of climate-induced challenges, offering valuable references for building reliable energy infrastructure capable of withstanding both extreme demands and physical threats across a spectrum of disaster intensities.

Keywords: extreme weather events, integrated energy systems, reliability improvement, climate change adaptation

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1086 Rainstorm Characteristics over the Northeastern Region of Thailand: Weather Radar Analysis

Authors: P. Intaracharoen, P. Chantraket, C. Detyothin, S. Kirtsaeng

Abstract:

Radar reflectivity data from Phimai weather radar station of DRRAA (Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation) were used to analyzed the rainstorm characteristics via Thunderstorm Identification Tracking Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN) algorithm. The Phimai weather radar station was situated at Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeastern Thailand. The data from 277 days of rainstorm events occurring from May 2016 to May 2017 were used to investigate temporal distribution characteristics of convective individual rainclouds. The important storm properties, structures, and their behaviors were analyzed by 9 variables as storm number, storm duration, storm volume, storm area, storm top, storm base, storm speed, storm orientation, and maximum storm reflectivity. The rainstorm characteristics were also examined by separating the data into two periods as wet and dry season followed by an announcement of TMD (Thai Meteorological Department), under the influence of southwest monsoon (SWM) and northeast monsoon (NEM). According to the characteristics of rainstorm results, it can be seen that rainstorms during the SWM influence were found to be the most potential rainstorms over northeastern region of Thailand. The SWM rainstorms are larger number of the storm (404, 140 no./day), storm area (34.09, 26.79 km²) and storm volume (95.43, 66.97 km³) than NEM rainstorms, respectively. For the storm duration, the average individual storm duration during the SWM and NEM was found a minor difference in both periods (47.6, 48.38 min) and almost all storm duration in both periods were less than 3 hours. The storm velocity was not exceeding 15 km/hr (13.34 km/hr for SWM and 10.67 km/hr for NEM). For the rainstorm reflectivity, it was found a little difference between wet and dry season (43.08 dBz for SWM and 43.72 dBz for NEM). It assumed that rainstorms occurred in both seasons have same raindrop size.

Keywords: rainstorm characteristics, weather radar, TITAN, Northeastern Thailand

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1085 The Impact of the Adittapariyaya Sutta in the Meaning-making of T.S. Eliot’s The Waste Land: A critical Analysis

Authors: Ven Pothupitiye Thilakasiri

Abstract:

The Ādittapariyāya Sutta, also known as the Fire Sermon is an important Buddhist text that addresses the nature of sensual pleasures and attachment through the metaphor of fire. Eliot makes use of this in his epic poem The Waste Land. Though scholars have studied Eliot‘s long poem for traces of eastern philosophy, no scholars have touched upon the idea of how the Adittapariyaya Sutta has enabled the meaning making endeavor of the poem. The present study attempts to address this research gap by undertaking a critical analysis of the Fire Sermon of The Waste Land by undertaking an interdisciplinary study of the poem using two methods—a literary and Buddhist reading methods, namely objective corelative and the three-pillared Buddhist ideas of Anicca (impermanence), Dukkha (suffering) and Anatha (No-self). Thus, the study explores the Ādittapariyāya Sutta’s thematic concerns of impermanence, suffering and no-self within the context of The Waste Land. The setting of the poem symbolizes spiritual desolation and existential crisis. By comparing Sutta‘s teachings with modern existential concerns, which is depicted in T.S. Eliot‘s The Waste Land, the analysis emphasizes the relevance of Buddhist insights to contemporary issues of meaning and disillusio

Keywords: Adittapariyaya Sutta, Objective correlative, Eastern Philosophy, Sensual pleasures

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1084 A Case Study of Typhoon Tracks: Insights from the Interaction between Typhoon Hinnamnor and Ocean Currents in 2022

Authors: Wei-Kuo Soong

Abstract:

The forecasting of typhoon tracks remains a formidable challenge, primarily attributable to the paucity of observational data in the open sea and the intricate influence of weather systems at varying scales. This study investigates the case of Typhoon Hinnamnor in 2022, examining its trajectory and intensity fluctuations in relation to the interaction with a concurrent tropical cyclone and sea surface temperatures (SST). Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), to simulate and analyze the interaction between Typhoon Hinnamnor and its environmental factors, shedding light on the mechanisms driving typhoon development and enhancing forecasting capabilities.

Keywords: typhoon, sea surface temperature, forecasting, WRF

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1083 A Study on Vulnerability of Alahsa Governorate to Generate Urban Heat Islands

Authors: Ilham S. M. Elsayed

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The purpose of this study is to investigate Alahsa Governorate status and its vulnerability to generate urban heat islands. Alahsa Governorate is a famous oasis in the Arabic Peninsula including several oil centers. Extensive literature review was done to collect previous relative data on the urban heat island of Alahsa Governorate. Data used for the purpose of this research were collected from authorized bodies who control weather station networks over Alahsa Governorate, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia. Although, the number of weather station networks within the region is very limited and the analysis using GIS software and its techniques is difficult and limited, the data analyzed confirm an increase in temperature for more than 2 °C from 2004 to 2014. Such increase is considerable whenever human health and comfort are the concern. The increase of temperature within one decade confirms the availability of urban heat islands. The study concludes that, Alahsa Governorate is vulnerable to create urban heat islands and more attention should be drawn to strategic planning of the governorate that is developing with a high pace and considerable increasing levels of urbanization.

Keywords: Alahsa Governorate, population density, Urban Heat Island, weather station

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1082 The Four Elements of Zoroastrianism and Sustainable Ecosystems with an Ecological Approach

Authors: Esmat Momeni, Shabnam Basari, Mohammad Beheshtinia

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The purpose of this study is to provide a symbolic explanation of the four elements in Zoroastrianism and sustainable ecosystems with an ecological approach. The research method is fundamental and deductive content analysis. Data collection has been done through library and documentary methods and through reading books and related articles. The population and sample of the present study are Yazd city and Iran country after discovering symbolic concepts derived from the theoretical foundations of Zoroastrianism in four elements of water, air, soil, fire and conformity with Iranian architecture with the ecological approach in Yazd city, the sustainable ecosystem it is explained by the system of nature. The validity and reliability of the results are based on the trust and confidence of the research literature. Research findings show that Yazd was one of the bases of Zoroastrianism in Iran. Many believe that the first person to discuss the elements of nature and respect Zoroastrians is the Prophet of this religion. Keeping the environment clean and pure by paying attention to and respecting these four elements. The water element is a symbol of existence in Zoroastrianism, so the people of Yazd used the aqueduct and designed a pool in front of the building. The soil element is a symbol of the raw material of human creation in the Zoroastrian religion, the most readily available material in the desert areas of Yazd, used as bricks and adobes, creating one of the most magnificent roof coverings is the dome. The wind element represents the invisible force of the soul in Creation in Zoroastrianism, the most important application of wind in the windy, which is a highly efficient cooling system. The element of fire, which is always a symbol of purity in Zoroastrianism, is located in a special place in Yazd's Ataskadeh (altar/ temple), where the most important religious prayers are held in and against the fire. Consequently, indigenous knowledge and attention to indigenous architecture is a part of the national capital of each nation that encompasses their beliefs, values, methods, and knowledge. According to studies on the four elements of Zoroastrianism, the link between these four elements are that due to the hot and dry fire at the beginning, it is the fire that begins to follow the nature of the movement in the stillness of the earth, and arises from the heat of the fire and because of vigor and its decreases, cold (wind) emerges, and from cold, humidity and wetness. And by examining books and resources on Yazd's architectural design with an ecological approach to the values of the four elements Zoroastrianism has been inspired, it can be concluded that in order to have environmentally friendly architecture, it is essential to use sustainable architectural principles, to link religious and sacrament culture and ecology through architecture.

Keywords: ecology, architecture, quadruple elements of air, soil, water, fire, Zoroastrian religion, sustainable ecosystem, Iran, Yazd city

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1081 Analysis of Weather Variability Impact on Yields of Some Crops in Southwest, Nigeria

Authors: Olumuyiwa Idowu Ojo, Oluwatobi Peter Olowo

Abstract:

The study developed a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) database and mapped inter-annual changes in crop yields of cassava, cowpea, maize, rice, melon and yam as a response to inter-annual rainfall and temperature variability in Southwest, Nigeria. The aim of this project is to study the comparative analysis of the weather variability impact of six crops yield (Rice, melon, yam, cassava, Maize and cowpea) in South Western States of Nigeria (Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun and Lagos) from 1991 – 2007. The data was imported and analysed in the Arch GIS 9 – 3 software environment. The various parameters (temperature, rainfall, crop yields) were interpolated using the kriging method. The results generated through interpolation were clipped to the study area. Geographically weighted regression was chosen from the spatial statistics toolbox in Arch GIS 9.3 software to analyse and predict the relationship between temperature, rainfall and the different crops (Cowpea, maize, rice, melon, yam, and cassava).

Keywords: GIS, crop yields, comparative analysis, temperature, rainfall, weather variability

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1080 Coastal Flood Mapping of Vulnerability Due to Sea Level Rise and Extreme Weather Events: A Case Study of St. Ives, UK

Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

Abstract:

Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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1079 Behaviour of RC Columns at Elevated Temperatures by NDT Techniques

Authors: D. Jagath Kumari, K. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

Reinforced concrete column is an important structural element in a building. Concrete usually performs well in building fires. However, when it is subjected to prolonged fire exposure or unusually high temperatures, and then it will suffer significant distress. Because concrete pre-fire compressive strength generally exceeds design requirements, therefore an average strength reduction can be tolerated. However high temperature reduces the compressive strength of concrete so much that the concrete retains no useful structural strength. Therefore the residual strength and its performance of structure can be assed by NDT testing. In this paper, rebound hammer test and the ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) are used to evaluate the residual compressive strength and material integrity of post-fire-curing concrete subjected to elevated temperatures. Also considering the large availability of fly ash in most of the countries, an attempt was made to study the effect of high volume fly ash concrete exposed to elevated temperatures. 32 RC column specimens were made with a M20 grade concrete mix. Out of 32 column specimens 16 column specimens were made with OPC concrete and other 16 column specimens were made with HVFA concrete. All specimens having similar cross-section details. Columns were exposed to fire for temperatures from 100oC to 800o C with increments of 100o C for duration of 3 hours. Then the specimens allowed cooling to room temperature by two methods natural air cooling method and immediate water quenching method. All the specimens were tested identically, for the compressive strengths and material integrity by rebound hammer and ultrasonic pulse velocity meter respectively for study. These two tests were carried out on preheating and post heating of the column specimens. The percentage variation of compressive strengths of RCC columns with the increase in temperature has been studied and compared the results for both OPC and HVFA concretes. Physical observations of the heated columns were observed.

Keywords: HVFA concrete, NDT testing, residual strength

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1078 Identifying Critical Links of a Transport Network When Affected by a Climatological Hazard

Authors: Beatriz Martinez-Pastor, Maria Nogal, Alan O'Connor

Abstract:

During the last years, the number of extreme weather events has increased. A variety of extreme weather events, including river floods, rain-induced landslides, droughts, winter storms, wildfire, and hurricanes, have threatened and damaged many different regions worldwide. These events have a devastating impact on critical infrastructure systems resulting in high social, economical and environmental costs. These events have a huge impact in transport systems. Since, transport networks are completely exposed to every kind of climatological perturbations, and its performance is closely related with these events. When a traffic network is affected by a climatological hazard, the quality of its service is threatened, and the level of the traffic conditions usually decreases. With the aim of understanding this process, the concept of resilience has become most popular in the area of transport. Transport resilience analyses the behavior of a traffic network when a perturbation takes place. This holistic concept studies the complete process, from the beginning of the perturbation until the total recovery of the system, when the perturbation has finished. Many concepts are included in the definition of resilience, such as vulnerability, redundancy, adaptability, and safety. Once the resilience of a transport network can be evaluated, in this case, the methodology used is a dynamic equilibrium-restricted assignment model that allows the quantification of the concept, the next step is its improvement. Through the improvement of this concept, it will be possible to create transport networks that are able to withstand and have a better performance under the presence of climatological hazards. Analyzing the impact of a perturbation in a traffic network, it is observed that the response of the different links, which are part of the network, can be completely different from one to another. Consequently and due to this effect, many questions arise, as what makes a link more critical before an extreme weather event? or how is it possible to identify these critical links? With this aim, and knowing that most of the times the owners or managers of the transport systems have limited resources, the identification of the critical links of a transport network before extreme weather events, becomes a crucial objective. For that reason, using the available resources in the areas that will generate a higher improvement of the resilience, will contribute to the global development of the network. Therefore, this paper wants to analyze what kind of characteristic makes a link a critical one when an extreme weather event damages a transport network and finally identify them.

Keywords: critical links, extreme weather events, hazard, resilience, transport network

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1077 Optimizing Fire Tube Boiler Design for Efficient Saturated Steam Production at 2000kg/h

Authors: Yoftahe Nigussie Worku

Abstract:

This study focused on designing a Fire tube boiler to generate saturated steam with a 2000kg/h capacity at a 12bar design pressure. The primary project goal is to achieve efficient steam production while minimizing costs. This involves selecting suitable materials for component parts, employing cost-effective construction methods, and optimizing various parameters. The analysis phase employs iterative processes and relevant formulas to determine key design parameters. This includes optimizing the diameter of tubes for overall heat transfer coefficient, considering a two-pass configuration due to tube and shell size, and using heavy oil fuel no.6 with specific heating values. The designed boiler consumes 140.37kg/hr of fuel, producing 1610kw of heat at an efficiency of 85.25%. The fluid flow is configured as cross flow, leveraging its inherent advantages. The tube arrangement involves welding the tubes inside the shell, which is connected to the tube sheet using a combination of gaskets and welding. The design of the shell adheres to the European Standard code for pressure vessels, accounting for weight and supplementary accessories and providing detailed drawings for components like lifting lugs, openings, ends, manholes, and supports.

Keywords: efficiency, coefficient, saturated steam, fire tube

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1076 Modelling of the Fire Pragmatism in the Area of Military Management and Its Experimental Verification

Authors: Ivana Mokrá

Abstract:

The article deals with modelling of the fire pragmatism in the area of military management and its experimental verification. Potential approaches are based on the synergy of mathematical and theoretical ideas, operational and tactical requirements and the military decision-making process. This issue has taken on importance in recent times, particularly with the increasing trend of digitized battlefield, the development of C4ISR systems and intention to streamline the command and control process at the lowest levels of command. From fundamental and philosophical point of view, these new approaches seek to significantly upgrade and enhance the decision-making process of the tactical commanders.

Keywords: military management, decision-making process, strike modeling, experimental evaluation, pragmatism, tactical strike modeling

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1075 A Vehicle Monitoring System Based on the LoRa Technique

Authors: Chao-Linag Hsieh, Zheng-Wei Ye, Chen-Kang Huang, Yeun-Chung Lee, Chih-Hong Sun, Tzai-Hung Wen, Jehn-Yih Juang, Joe-Air Jiang

Abstract:

Air pollution and climate warming become more and more intensified in many areas, especially in urban areas. Environmental parameters are critical information to air pollution and weather monitoring. Thus, it is necessary to develop a suitable air pollution and weather monitoring system for urban areas. In this study, a vehicle monitoring system (VMS) based on the IoT technique is developed. Cars are selected as the research tool because it can reach a greater number of streets to collect data. The VMS can monitor different environmental parameters, including ambient temperature and humidity, and air quality parameters, including PM2.5, NO2, CO, and O3. The VMS can provide other information, including GPS signals and the vibration information through driving a car on the street. Different sensor modules are used to measure the parameters and collect the measured data and transmit them to a cloud server through the LoRa protocol. A user interface is used to show the sensing data storing at the cloud server. To examine the performance of the system, a researcher drove a Nissan x-trail 1998 to the area close to the Da’an District office in Taipei to collect monitoring data. The collected data are instantly shown on the user interface. The four kinds of information are provided by the interface: GPS positions, weather parameters, vehicle information, and air quality information. With the VMS, users can obtain the information regarding air quality and weather conditions when they drive their car to an urban area. Also, government agencies can make decisions on traffic planning based on the information provided by the proposed VMS.

Keywords: LoRa, monitoring system, smart city, vehicle

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1074 Optimizing Protection of Medieval Glass Mosaic

Authors: J. Valach, S. Pospisil, S. Kuznecov

Abstract:

The paper deals with experimental estimation of future environmental load on medieval mosaic of Last Judgement on entrance to St. Vitus cathedral on Prague castle. The mosaic suffers from seasonal changes of weather pattern, as well as rains, their acidity, deposition of dust and sooth particles from polluted air and also from freeze-thaw cycles. These phenomena influence state of the mosaic. The mosaic elements, tesserae are mostly made from glass prone to weathering. To estimate future procedure of the best maintenance, relation between various weather scenarios and their effect on the mosaic was investigated. At the same time local method for evaluation of protective coating was developed. Together both methods will contribute to better care for the mosaic and also visitors aesthetical experience.

Keywords: environmental load, cultural heritage, glass mosaic, protection

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1073 Studying Language of Immediacy and Language of Distance from a Corpus Linguistic Perspective: A Pilot Study of Evaluation Markers in French Television Weather Reports

Authors: Vince Liégeois

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Language of immediacy and distance: Within their discourse theory, Koch & Oesterreicher establish a distinction between a language of immediacy and a language of distance. The former refers to those discourses which are oriented more towards a spoken norm, whereas the latter entails discourses oriented towards a written norm, regardless of whether they are realised phonically or graphically. This means that an utterance can be realised phonically but oriented more towards the written language norm (e.g., a scientific presentation or eulogy) or realised graphically but oriented towards a spoken norm (e.g., a scribble or chat messages). Research desiderata: The methodological approach from Koch & Oesterreicher has often been criticised for not providing a corpus-linguistic methodology, which makes it difficult to work with quantitative data or address large text collections within this research paradigm. Consequently, the Koch & Oesterreicher approach has difficulties gaining ground in those research areas which rely more on corpus linguistic research models, like text linguistics and LSP-research. A combinatory approach: Accordingly, we want to establish a combinatory approach with corpus-based linguistic methodology. To this end, we propose to (i) include data about the context of an utterance (e.g., monologicity/dialogicity, familiarity with the speaker) – which were called “conditions of communication” in the original work of Koch & Oesterreicher – and (ii) correlate the linguistic phenomenon at the centre of the inquiry (e.g., evaluation markers) to a group of linguistic phenomena deemed typical for either distance- or immediacy-language. Based on these two parameters, linguistic phenomena and texts could then be mapped on an immediacy-distance continuum. Pilot study: To illustrate the benefits of this approach, we will conduct a pilot study on evaluation phenomena in French television weather reports, a form of domain-sensitive discourse which has often been cited as an example of a “text genre”. Within this text genre, we will look at so-called “evaluation markers,” e.g., fixed strings like bad weather, stifling hot, and “no luck today!”. These evaluation markers help to communicate the coming weather situation towards the lay audience but have not yet been studied within the Koch & Oesterreicher research paradigm. Accordingly, we want to figure out whether said evaluation markers are more typical for those weather reports which tend more towards immediacy or those which tend more towards distance. To this aim, we collected a corpus with different kinds of television weather reports,e.g., as part of the news broadcast, including dialogue. The evaluation markers themselves will be studied according to the explained methodology, by correlating them to (i) metadata about the context and (ii) linguistic phenomena characterising immediacy-language: repetition, deixis (personal, spatial, and temporal), a freer choice of tense and right- /left-dislocation. Results: Our results indicate that evaluation markers are more dominantly present in those weather reports inclining towards immediacy-language. Based on the methodology established above, we have gained more insight into the working of evaluation markers in the domain-sensitive text genre of (television) weather reports. For future research, it will be interesting to determine whether said evaluation markers are also typical for immediacy-language-oriented in other domain-sensitive discourses.

Keywords: corpus-based linguistics, evaluation markers, language of immediacy and distance, weather reports

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1072 Reduce the Impact of Wildfires by Identifying Them Early from Space and Sending Location Directly to Closest First Responders

Authors: Gregory Sullivan

Abstract:

The evolution of global warming has escalated the number and complexity of forest fires around the world. As an example, the United States and Brazil combined generated more than 30,000 forest fires last year. The impact to our environment, structures and individuals is incalculable. The world has learned to try to take this in stride, trying multiple ways to contain fires. Some countries are trying to use cameras in limited areas. There are discussions of using hundreds of low earth orbit satellites and linking them together, and, interfacing them through ground networks. These are all truly noble attempts to defeat the forest fire phenomenon. But there is a better, simpler answer. A bigger piece of the solutions puzzle is to see the fires while they are small, soon after initiation. The approach is to see the fires while they are very small and report their location (latitude and longitude) to local first responders. This is done by placing a sensor at geostationary orbit (GEO: 26,000 miles above the earth). By placing this small satellite in GEO, we can “stare” at the earth, and sense temperature changes. We do not “see” fires, but “measure” temperature changes. This has already been demonstrated on an experimental scale. Fires were seen at close to initiation, and info forwarded to first responders. it were the first to identify the fires 7 out of 8 times. The goal is to have a small independent satellite at GEO orbit focused only on forest fire initiation. Thus, with one small satellite, focused only on forest fire initiation, we hope to greatly decrease the impact to persons, property and the environment.

Keywords: space detection, wildfire early warning, demonstration wildfire detection and action from space, space detection to first responders

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1071 Influence of Hydrolytic Degradation on Properties of Moisture Membranes Used in Fire-Protective Clothing

Authors: Rachid El Aidani, Phuong Nguyen-Tri, Toan Vu-Khanh

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This study intends to show the influence of the hydrolytic degradation on the properties of the e-PTFE/NOMEX® membranes used in fire-protective clothing. The modification of water vapour permeability, morphology and chemical structure was examined by MOCON Permatran, electron microscopy scanning (SEM), and ATR-FTIR, respectively. A decrease in permeability to water vapour of the aged samples was observed following closure of transpiration pores. Analysis of fiber morphology indicates the appearance of defects at the fibers surface with the presence of micro cavities as well as the of fibrils. ATR-FTIR analysis reveals the presence of a new absorption band attributed to carboxylic acid terminal groups generated during the amide bond hydrolysis.

Keywords: hydrolytic ageing, moisture membrane, water vapor permeability, morphology

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1070 The Effect of Soil-Structure Interaction on the Post-Earthquake Fire Performance of Structures

Authors: A. T. Al-Isawi, P. E. F. Collins

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The behaviour of structures exposed to fire after an earthquake is not a new area of engineering research, but there remain a number of areas where further work is required. Such areas relate to the way in which seismic excitation is applied to a structure, taking into account the effect of soil-structure interaction (SSI) and the method of analysis, in addition to identifying the excitation load properties. The selection of earthquake data input for use in nonlinear analysis and the method of analysis are still challenging issues. Thus, realistic artificial ground motion input data must be developed to certify that site properties parameters adequately describe the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the system and that the characteristics of these parameters are coherent with the characteristics of the target parameters. Conversely, ignoring the significance of some attributes, such as frequency content, soil site properties and earthquake parameters may lead to misleading results, due to the misinterpretation of required input data and the incorrect synthesise of analysis hypothesis. This paper presents a study of the post-earthquake fire (PEF) performance of a multi-storey steel-framed building resting on soft clay, taking into account the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the structure and soil, and the soil-structure interaction (SSI). Structures subjected to an earthquake may experience various levels of damage; the geometrical damage, which indicates the change in the initial structure’s geometry due to the residual deformation as a result of plastic behaviour, and the mechanical damage which identifies the degradation of the mechanical properties of the structural elements involved in the plastic range of deformation. Consequently, the structure presumably experiences partial structural damage but is then exposed to fire under its new residual material properties, which may result in building failure caused by a decrease in fire resistance. This scenario would be more complicated if SSI was also considered. Indeed, most earthquake design codes ignore the probability of PEF as well as the effect that SSI has on the behaviour of structures, in order to simplify the analysis procedure. Therefore, the design of structures based on existing codes which neglect the importance of PEF and SSI can create a significant risk of structural failure. In order to examine the criteria for the behaviour of a structure under PEF conditions, a two-dimensional nonlinear elasto-plastic model is developed using ABAQUS software; the effects of SSI are included. Both geometrical and mechanical damages have been taken into account after the earthquake analysis step. For comparison, an identical model is also created, which does not include the effects of soil-structure interaction. It is shown that damage to structural elements is underestimated if SSI is not included in the analysis, and the maximum percentage reduction in fire resistance is detected in the case when SSI is included in the scenario. The results are validated using the literature.

Keywords: Abaqus Software, Finite Element Analysis, post-earthquake fire, seismic analysis, soil-structure interaction

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1069 Analysis of an Alternative Data Base for the Estimation of Solar Radiation

Authors: Graciela Soares Marcelli, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag

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The sun is a source of renewable energy, and its use as both a source of heat and light is one of the most promising energy alternatives for the future. To measure the thermal or photovoltaic systems a solar irradiation database is necessary. Brazil still has a reduced number of meteorological stations that provide frequency tests, as an alternative to the radio data platform, with reanalysis systems, quite significant. ERA-Interim is a global fire reanalysis by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The data assimilation system used for the production of ERA-Interim is based on a 2006 version of the IFS (Cy31r2). The system includes a 4-dimensional variable analysis (4D-Var) with a 12-hour analysis window. The spatial resolution of the dataset is approximately 80 km at 60 vertical levels from the surface to 0.1 hPa. This work aims to make a comparative analysis between the ERA-Interim data and the data observed in the Solarimmetric Atlas of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, to verify its applicability in the absence of an observed data network. The analysis of the results obtained for a study region as an alternative to the energy potential of a given region.

Keywords: energy potential, reanalyses, renewable energy, solar radiation

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1068 Evaluating the Effects of Weather and Climate Change to Risks in Crop Production

Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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1067 Vine Copula Structure among Yield, Price and Weather Variables for Rating Crop Insurance Premium

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

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1066 Solar Radiation Time Series Prediction

Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

Abstract:

A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting

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1065 The Importance of Fruit Trees for Prescribed Burning in a South American Savanna

Authors: Rodrigo M. Falleiro, Joaquim P. L. Parime, Luciano C. Santos, Rodrigo D. Silva

Abstract:

The Cerrado biome is the most biodiverse savanna on the planet. Located in central Brazil, its preservation is seriously threatened by the advance of intensive agriculture and livestock. Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands are increasingly isolated and subject to mega wildfires. Among the characteristics of this savanna, we highlight the high rate of primary biomass production and the reduced occurrence of large grazing animals. In this biome, the predominant fauna is more dependent on the fruits produced by the dicotyledonous species in relation to other tropical savannas. Fire is a key element in the balance between mono and dicotyledons or between the arboreal and herbaceous strata. Therefore, applying fire regimes that maintain the balance between these strata without harming fruit production is essential in the conservation strategies of Cerrado's biodiversity. Recently, Integrated Fire Management has started to be implemented in Brazilian protected areas. As a result, management with prescribed burns has increasingly replaced strategies based on fire exclusion, which in practice have resulted in large wildfires, with highly negative impacts on fruit and fauna production. In the Indigenous Lands, these fires were carried out respecting traditional knowledge. The indigenous people showed great concern about the effects of fire on fruit plants and important animals. They recommended that the burns be carried out between April and May, as it would result in a greater production of edible fruits ("fruiting burning"). In other tropical savannas in the southern hemisphere, the preferential period tends to be later, in the middle of the dry season, when the grasses are dormant (June to August). However, in the Cerrado, this late period coincides with the flowering and sprouting of several important fruit species. To verify the best burning season, the present work evaluated the effects of fire on flowering and fruit production of theByrsonima sp., Mouriri pusa, Caryocar brasiliense, Anacardium occidentale, Pouteria ramiflora, Hancornia speciosa, Byrsonima verbascifolia, Anacardium humille and Talisia subalbens. The evaluations were carried out in the field, covering 31 Indigenous Lands that cover 104,241.18 Km², where 3,386 prescribed burns were carried out between 2015 and 2018. The burning periods were divided into early (carried out during the rainy season), modal or “fruiting” (carried out during the transition between seasons) and late (carried out in the middle of the dry season, when the grasses are dormant). The results corroborate the traditional knowledge, demonstrating that the modal burns result in higher rates of reproduction and fruit production. Late burns showed intermediate results, followed by early burns. We conclude that management strategies based mainly on forage production, which are usually applied in savannas populated by grazing ungulates, may not be the best management strategy for South American savannas. The effects of fire on fruit plants, which have a particular phenologicalsynchronization with the fauna cycle, also need to be observed during the prescription of burns.

Keywords: cerrado biome, fire regimes, native fruits, prescribed burns

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1064 The Design of Fire in Tube Boiler

Authors: Yoftahe Nigussie

Abstract:

This report presents a final year project pertaining to the design of Fire tube boiler for the purpose of producing saturated steam. The objective of the project is to produce saturated steam for different purpose with a capacity of 2000kg/h at 12bar design pressure by performing a design of a higher performance fire tube boiler that considered the requirements of cost minimization and parameters improvement. This is mostly done in selection of appropriate material for component parts, construction materials and production methods in different steps of analysis. In the analysis process, most of the design parameters are obtained by iterating with related formulas like selection of diameter of tubes with overall heat transfer coefficient optimization, and the other selections are also as like considered. The number of passes is two because of the size and area of the tubes and shell. As the analysis express by using heavy oil fuel no6 with a higher heating value of 44000kJ/kg and lower heating value of 41300kJ/kg and the amount of fuel consumed 140.37kg/hr. and produce 1610kw of heat with efficiency of 85.25%. The flow of the fluid is a cross flow because of its own advantage and the arrangement of the tube in-side the shell is welded with the tube sheet, and the tube sheet is attached with the shell and the end by using a gasket and weld. The design of the shell, using European Standard code section, is as like pressure vessel by considering the weight, including content and the supplementary accessories such as lifting lugs, openings, ends, man hole and supports with detail and assembly drawing.

Keywords: steam generation, external treatment, internal treatment, steam velocity

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1063 Impact of Global Climate Change on Economy of Pakistan: How to Ensure Sustainable Food and Energy Production

Authors: Sabahat Zahra

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to present the changing global environment and its potential impacts on sustainable food and energy production at global level, particularly in Pakistan. The food and energy related-economic sector has been subjected to negative consequences due to recent extreme changes in weather conditions, particularly in developing countries. Besides continuous modifications in weather, population is also increasing by time, therefore it is necessary to take special steps and start effective initiatives to cope with the challenges of food and energy security to fight hunger and for economic stability of country. Severe increase in temperature and heat waves has also negative impacts on food production as well as energy sustainability. Energy (in terms of electricity) consumption has grown up than the production potential of the country as a consequence of increasing warm weather. Ultimately prices gone up when there is more consumption than production. Therefore, all these aspects of climate change are interrelated with socio-economic issues. There is a need to develop long-term policies on regional and national levels for maintainable economic growth. This research presents a framework-plan and recommendations for implementation needed to mitigate the potential threats due to global climate change sustainable food and energy production under climate change in the country.

Keywords: climate changes, energy security, food security, global climate change

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1062 Space Weather and Earthquakes: A Case Study of Solar Flare X9.3 Class on September 6, 2017

Authors: Viktor Novikov, Yuri Ruzhin

Abstract:

The studies completed to-date on a relation of the Earth's seismicity and solar processes provide the fuzzy and contradictory results. For verification of an idea that solar flares can trigger earthquakes, we have analyzed a case of a powerful surge of solar flash activity early in September 2017 during approaching the minimum of 24th solar cycle was accompanied by significant disturbances of space weather. On September 6, 2017, a group of sunspots AR2673 generated a large solar flare of X9.3 class, the strongest flare over the past twelve years. Its explosion produced a coronal mass ejection partially directed towards the Earth. We carried out a statistical analysis of the catalogs of earthquakes USGS and EMSC for determination of the effect of solar flares on global seismic activity. New evidence of earthquake triggering due to the Sun-Earth interaction has been demonstrated by simple comparison of behavior of Earth's seismicity before and after the strong solar flare. The global number of earthquakes with magnitude of 2.5 to 5.5 within 11 days after the solar flare has increased by 30 to 100%. A possibility of electric/electromagnetic triggering of earthquake due to space weather disturbances is supported by results of field and laboratory studies, where the earthquakes (both natural and laboratory) were initiated by injection of electrical current into the Earth crust. For the specific case of artificial electric earthquake triggering the current density at a depth of earthquake, sources are comparable with estimations of a density of telluric currents induced by variation of space weather conditions due to solar flares. Acknowledgment: The work was supported by RFBR grant No. 18-05-00255.

Keywords: solar flare, earthquake activity, earthquake triggering, solar-terrestrial relations

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1061 Mobile and Hot Spot Measurement with Optical Particle Counting Based Dust Monitor EDM264

Authors: V. Ziegler, F. Schneider, M. Pesch

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With the EDM264, GRIMM offers a solution for mobile short- and long-term measurements in outdoor areas and at production sites. For research as well as permanent areal observations on a near reference quality base. The model EDM264 features a powerful and robust measuring cell based on optical particle counting (OPC) principle with all the advantages that users of GRIMM's portable aerosol spectrometers are used to. The system is embedded in a compact weather-protection housing with all-weather sampling, heated inlet system, data logger, and meteorological sensor. With TSP, PM10, PM4, PM2.5, PM1, and PMcoarse, the EDM264 provides all fine dust fractions real-time, valid for outdoor applications and calculated with the proven GRIMM enviro-algorithm, as well as six additional dust mass fractions pm10, pm2.5, pm1, inhalable, thoracic and respirable for IAQ and workplace measurements. This highly versatile instrument performs real-time monitoring of particle number, particle size and provides information on particle surface distribution as well as dust mass distribution. GRIMM's EDM264 has 31 equidistant size channels, which are PSL traceable. A high-end data logger enables data acquisition and wireless communication via LTE, WLAN, or wired via Ethernet. Backup copies of the measurement data are stored in the device directly. The rinsing air function, which protects the laser and detector in the optical cell, further increases the reliability and long term stability of the EDM264 under different environmental and climatic conditions. The entire sample volume flow of 1.2 L/min is analyzed by 100% in the optical cell, which assures excellent counting efficiency at low and high concentrations and complies with the ISO 21501-1standard for OPCs. With all these features, the EDM264 is a world-leading dust monitor for precise monitoring of particulate matter and particle number concentration. This highly reliable instrument is an indispensable tool for many users who need to measure aerosol levels and air quality outdoors, on construction sites, or at production facilities.

Keywords: aerosol research, aerial observation, fence line monitoring, wild fire detection

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1060 University Students Sport’s Activities Assessment in Harsh Weather Conditions

Authors: Ammar S. M. Moohialdin, Bambang T. Suhariadi, Mohsin Siddiqui

Abstract:

This paper addresses the application of physiological status monitoring (PSM) for assessing the impact of harsh weather conditions on sports activities in universities in Saudi Arabia. Real sports measurement was conducted during sports activities such that the physiological status (HR and BR) of five students were continuously monitored by using Zephyr BioHarnessTM 3.0 sensors in order to identify the physiological bonds and zones. These bonds and zones were employed as indicators of the associated physiological risks of the performed sports activities. Furthermore, a short yes/no questionnaire was applied to collect information on participants’ health conditions and opinions of the applied PSM sensors. The results show the absence of a warning system as a protective aid for the hazardous levels of extremely hot and humid weather conditions that may cause dangerous and fatal circumstances. The applied formulas for estimating maximum HR provides accurate estimations for Maximum Heart Rate (HRmax). The physiological results reveal that the performed activities by the participants are considered the highest category (90–100%) in terms of activity intensity. This category is associated with higher HR, BR and physiological risks including losing the ability to control human body behaviors. Therefore, there is a need for immediate intervention actions to reduce the intensity of the performed activities to safer zones. The outcomes of this study assist the safety improvement of sports activities inside universities and athletes performing their sports activities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to represent a special case of the application of PSM technology for assessing sports activities in universities considering the impacts of harsh weather conditions on students’ health and safety.

Keywords: physiological status monitoring (PSM), heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR), Arabian Gulf

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1059 Determination of Measurement Uncertainty of the Diagnostic Meteorological Model CALMET

Authors: Nina Miklavčič, Urška Kugovnik, Natalia Galkina, Primož Ribarič, Rudi Vončina

Abstract:

Today, the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas, from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely, in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is also critical for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models. In the article, we focused on the estimation of measurement uncertainty of the diagnostic microscale meteorological model CALMET. For the purposes of our research, we used a network of meteorological stations spread in the area of our interest, which enables a side-by-side comparison of measured meteorological values with the values calculated with the help of CALMET and the measurement uncertainty estimation as a final result.

Keywords: uncertancy, meteorological model, meteorological measurment, CALMET

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1058 Prediction of Embankment Fires at Railway Infrastructure Using Machine Learning, Geospatial Data and VIIRS Remote Sensing Imagery

Authors: Jan-Peter Mund, Christian Kind

Abstract:

In view of the ongoing climate change and global warming, fires along railways in Germany are occurring more frequently, with sometimes massive consequences for railway operations and affected railroad infrastructure. In the absence of systematic studies within the infrastructure network of German Rail, little is known about the causes of such embankment fires. Since a further increase in these hazards is to be expected in the near future, there is a need for a sound knowledge of triggers and drivers for embankment fires as well as methodical knowledge of prediction tools. Two predictable future trends speak for the increasing relevance of the topic: through the intensification of the use of rail for passenger and freight transport (e.g..: doubling of annual passenger numbers by 2030, compared to 2019), there will be more rail traffic and also more maintenance and construction work on the railways. This research project approach uses satellite data to identify historical embankment fires along rail network infrastructure. The team links data from these fires with infrastructure and weather data and trains a machine-learning model with the aim of predicting fire hazards on sections of the track. Companies reflect on the results and use them on a pilot basis in precautionary measures.

Keywords: embankment fires, railway maintenance, machine learning, remote sensing, VIIRS data

Procedia PDF Downloads 89