Search results for: conditional volatility

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Xian-Peng Chen

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China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer, and its development of renewable energy is of great significance to global energy governance and the fight against climate change. The rapid growth of solar power in China could help achieve its ambitious carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets early. However, the non-technical costs of solar power in China are much higher than at international levels, meaning that inefficiencies are rooted in poor management and improper policy design and that efficiency distortions have become a serious challenge to the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry. Unlike fossil energy generation technologies, the output of solar power is closely related to the volatile solar resource, and the spatial unevenness of solar resource distribution leads to potential efficiency spatial distribution differences. It is necessary to develop an efficiency evaluation method that considers the volatility of solar resources and explores the mechanism of the influence of natural geography and social environment on the spatially varying characteristics of efficiency distribution to uncover the root causes of managing inefficiencies. The study sets solar resources as stochastic inputs, introduces a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis model combined with the directional distance function, and measures the solar resource utilization efficiency of 222 solar power plants in representative photovoltaic bases in northwestern China. By the meta-frontier analysis, we measured the characteristics of different power plant clusters and compared the differences among groups, discussed the mechanism of environmental factors influencing inefficiencies, and performed statistical tests through the system generalized method of moments. Rational localization of power plants is a systematic project that requires careful consideration of the full utilization of solar resources, low transmission costs, and power consumption guarantee. Suitable temperature, precipitation, and wind speed can improve the working performance of photovoltaic modules, reasonable terrain inclination can reduce land cost, and the proximity to cities strongly guarantees the consumption of electricity. The density of electricity demand and high-tech industries is more important than resource abundance because they trigger the clustering of power plants to result in a good demonstration and competitive effect. To ensure renewable energy consumption, increased support for rural grids and encouraging direct trading between generators and neighboring users will provide solutions. The study will provide proposals for improving the full life-cycle operational activities of solar power plants in China to reduce high non-technical costs and improve competitiveness against fossil energy sources.

Keywords: solar power plants, environmental factors, data envelopment analysis, efficiency evaluation

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Authors: Khuram Shahzad, Omar Usman Khan

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Quantum bit string comparators (QBSC) operate on two sequences of n-qubits, enabling the determination of their relationships, such as equality, greater than, or less than. This is analogous to the way conditional statements are used in programming languages. Consequently, QBSCs play a crucial role in various algorithms that can be executed or adapted for quantum computers. The development of efficient and generalized comparators for any n-qubit length has long posed a challenge, as they have a high-cost footprint and lead to quantum delays. Comparators that are efficient are associated with inputs of fixed length. As a result, comparators without a generalized circuit cannot be employed at a higher level, though they are well-suited for problems with limited size requirements. In this paper, we introduce a generalized design for the comparison of two n-qubit logic states using just two ancillary bits. The design is examined on the basis of qubit requirements, ancillary bit usage, quantum cost, quantum delay, gate operations, and circuit complexity and is tested comprehensively on various input lengths. The work allows for sufficient flexibility in the design of quantum algorithms, which can accelerate quantum algorithm development.

Keywords: quantum comparator, quantum algorithm, space-efficient comparator, comparator

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Authors: Paulo Lopes Henriques, Carla Curado

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According to literature, knowledge sharing behaviors are influenced by organizational values and structures, namely organizational climate. The manuscript examines the antecedents of the knowledge sharing oriented organizational climate. According to theoretical expectations the study adopts the following explanatory conditions: knowledge sharing costs, knowledge sharing incentives, perceptions of knowledge sharing contributing to performance and tenure. The study confronts results considering two groups of firms: nondigital (firms without intranet) vs digital (firms with intranet). The paper applies fsQCA technique to analyze data by using fsQCA 2.5 software (www.fsqca.com) testing several conditional arguments to explain the outcome variable. Main results strengthen claims on the relevancy of the contribution of knowledge sharing to performance. Secondly, evidence brings tenure - an explanatory condition that is associated to organizational memory – to the spotlight. The study provides an original contribution not previously addressed in literature, since it identifies the sufficient conditions sets to knowledge sharing oriented organizational climate using fsQCA, which is, to our knowledge, a novel application of the technique.

Keywords: fsQCA, knowledge sharing oriented organizational climate, knowledge sharing costs, knowledge sharing incentives

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Authors: Wen-Hsi Lee, C.G. Kao

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In this study, Cu paste was prepared and printed with narrow line screen printing process on polycrystalline Si solar cell which has already finished the back Al printing and deposition of double anti-reflection coatings (DARCs). Then, two-step firing process was applied to sinter the front electrode and obtain the ohmic contact between front electrode and solar cell. The first step was in air atmosphere. In this process, PbO-based glass frit etched the DARCs and Ag recrystallized at the surface of Si, constructing the preliminary contact. The second step was in reducing atmosphere. In this process, CuO reduced to Cu and sintered. Besides, Ag nanoparticles recrystallized in the glass layer at interface due to the interactions between H2, Ag and PbO-based glass frit and the volatility of Pb, constructing the ohmic contact between electrode and solar cell. By experiment and analysis, reaction mechanism in each stage was surmised, and it was also proven that ohmic contact and good sheet resistance for front electrode could both be obtained by applying newly-invented paste and process.

Keywords: front electrode, solar cell, ohmic contact, screen printing, paste

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Authors: Mounia El Hafyani, Khalid El Himdi

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Precipitation is one of the key variables in water resource planning. The importance of modeling wet and dry durations is a crucial pointer in engineering hydrology. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of wet and dry durations. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data from 1967 to 2017 of the Moroccan city of Kenitra’s station are used. Three models are implemented for the distribution of wet and dry durations, namely the first-order Markov chain, the second-order Markov chain, and the truncated negative binomial law. The adherence of the data to the proposed models is evaluated using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The Akaike information criterion is applied to assess the most effective model distribution. We go further and study the law of the number of wet and dry days among k consecutive days. The calculation of this law is done through an algorithm that we have implemented based on conditional laws. We complete our work by comparing the observed moments of the numbers of wet/dry days among k consecutive days to the calculated moment of the three estimated models. The study shows the effectiveness of our approach in modeling wet and dry durations of daily precipitation.

Keywords: Markov chain, rainfall, truncated negative binomial law, wet and dry durations

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Authors: Rama Debbarma

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The present study deals with the performance of Linear base isolation system to mitigate seismic response of structures characterized by random system parameters. This involves optimization of the tuning ratio and damping properties of the base isolation system considering uncertain system parameters. However, the efficiency of base isolator may reduce if it is not tuned to the vibrating mode it is designed to suppress due to unavoidable presence of system parameters uncertainty. With the aid of matrix perturbation theory and first order Taylor series expansion, the total probability concept is used to evaluate the unconditional response of the primary structures considering random system parameters. For this, the conditional second order information of the response quantities are obtained in random vibration framework using state space formulation. Subsequently, the maximum unconditional root mean square displacement of the primary structures is used as the objective function to obtain optimum damping parameters Numerical study is performed to elucidate the effect of parameters uncertainties on the optimization of parameters of linear base isolator and system performance.

Keywords: linear base isolator, earthquake, optimization, uncertain parameters

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Authors: Shruti Chopra, Vikas Rao Vadi

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In the era of the digital world, the Internet of Things (IoT) has been receiving significant attention. Its ubiquitous connectivity between humans, machines to machines (M2M) and machines to humans provides it a potential to transform the society and establish an ecosystem to serve new dimensions to the economy of the country. Thereby, this study has attempted to identify the challenges that seem prevalent in IoT adoption in India through the literature survey. Further, the data has been collected by taking the opinions of experts to conduct the foresight analysis and it has been analyzed with the help of scenario planning process – Micmac, Mactor, Multipol, and Smic-Prob. As a methodology, the study has identified the relationship between variables through variable analysis using Micmac and actor analysis using Mactor, this paper has attempted to generate the entire field of possibilities in terms of hypotheses and construct various scenarios through Multipol. And lastly, the findings of the study include final scenarios that are selected using Smic-Prob by assigning the probability to all the scenarios (including the conditional probability). This study may help the practitioners and policymakers to remove the obstacles to successfully implement the IoT in India.

Keywords: Internet of Thing (IoT), foresight analysis, scenario planning, challenges, policymaking

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Authors: Salma Mefteh-Wali, Marie-Josephe Rigobert

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We investigate the impact of foreign currency debt on firm performance for a sample of non-financial French firms studied over the period 2002 to 2012. As foreign currency debt is both a financing and hedging instrument against foreign exchange risk, we mobilize optimal hedging theory and capital structure theory. When we study the impact on firm value, our main results show that before and after the financial crisis of 2008, foreign debt had the same behavior as domestic debt. We find that during the crisis period, foreign debt positively affects firm value. Investors perceive foreign debt as a natural hedging instrument that is likely to reduce the costs of underinvestment, alleviate cash flow volatility, limit the costs of financial distress, and generate tax shield benefits. Also, our results show that foreign leverage negatively affects the firm performance proxied by ROA and ROE, during and after the financial crisis. However, this impact is positive in the pre-crisis period.

Keywords: foreign currency derivatives, foreign currency debt, foreign currency hedging, firm performance

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Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

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Authors: N. Hatraf, L. Merabti, Z. Neffah, W. Taane

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The excessive consumption of fossil energies (electrical energy) during summer caused by the technological development involves more and more climate warming. In order to reduce the worst impact of gas emissions produced from classical air conditioning, heat driven solar absorption chiller is pretty promising; it consists on using solar as motive energy which is clean and environmentally friendly to provide cold. Solar absorption machine is composed by four components using Lithium Bromide /water as a refrigerating couple. LiBr- water is the most promising in chiller applications due to high safety, high volatility ratio, high affinity, high stability and its high latent heat. The lithium bromide solution is constitute by the salt lithium bromide which absorbs water under certain conditions of pressure and temperature however if the concentration of the solution is high in the absorption chillers; which exceed 70%, the solution will crystallize. The main aim of this article is to study the phenomena of the crystallization and to evaluate how the dependence between the electric conductivity and the concentration which should be controlled.

Keywords: absorption, crystallization, experimental results, lithium bromide solution

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Authors: Alexander Marx

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Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

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Authors: Maurice Bilioniere, Katie Lanneau

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Suddenly appeared in 2011, invasions of sargasso seaweeds Fluitans and Natans are a climatic hazard which causes many problems in the Caribbean. Faced with the growth and frequency of the phenomenon of massive sargasso stranding on their coasts, the French West Indies are moving towards the path of industrial recovery. In this context of innovative projects, we will analyze the necessary requirements for the management and performance of the supply chain, taking into account the observed volatility of the sargasso input. Our prospective approach will consist in studying the theoretical framework of modeling a hybrid supply chain by coupling the discreet event simulation (DES) with a valuation of the process costs according to the "activity-based costing" method (ABC). The PREVA approach (PRocess EVAluation) chosen for our modeling has the advantage of evaluating the financial flows of the logistic process using an analytical model chained with an action model for the evaluation or optimization of physical flows.

Keywords: sargasso, PREVA modeling, supply chain, ABC method, discreet event simulation (DES)

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Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

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Authors: Cecilia Espindola, Juan Carlos Palacios

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Flavonoids are a large group of natural compounds which are found in many fruits and vegetables. A subgroup of these called flavanones display a wide range of biological activities, and they also have an important physiological role in plants. The ionic liquid (ILs) are compounds consisting of an organic cation with an organic or inorganic anion. Due to its unique properties such as high electrical conductivity, wide temperature range of the liquid state, thermal and electrochemical stability, high ionic density and low volatility and flammability, are considered as ecological solvents in organic synthesis, catalysis, electrolytes in accumulators, and electrochemistry, non-volatile plasticizers, and chemical separation. It was synthesized ionic liquid IL 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide free-solvent and used as reaction medium for flavanones synthesis, under several reaction conditions of temperature, time and production. The obtained compounds were analyzed by melting point, elemental analysis, IR and UV-vis spectroscopy.

Keywords: 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide, flavonoids, free-solvent, IR spectroscopy

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

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Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: bootstrap, edgeworth approximation, IID, quantile

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

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This study aims to establish a concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in the Islamic Financial Market (Banking and Capital Markets). A rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the profit sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors, including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets value that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in the Islamic Bond Market in the Capital Market.

Keywords: economic justice, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth, rate of profit, stability in the financial system

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Authors: Peter Shi

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Algorithmic trading is a rapidly expanding domain within quantitative finance, constituting a substantial portion of trading volumes in the US financial market. The demand for rigorous and robust mathematical theories underpinning these trading algorithms is ever-growing. In this study, the author establishes a new stock market model that integrates the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the statistical arbitrage. The model, for the first time, finds probabilistic relations between the rational price and the market price in terms of the conditional expectation. The theory consequently leads to a mathematical justification of the old market adage: buy-low and sell-high. The thresholds for “low” and “high” are precisely derived using a max-min operation on Bayes’s error. This explicit connection harmonizes the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Statistical Arbitrage, demonstrating their compatibility in explaining market dynamics. The amalgamation represents a pioneering contribution to quantitative finance. The study culminates in comprehensive numerical tests using historical market data, affirming that the “buy-low” and “sell-high” algorithm derived from this theory significantly outperforms the general market over the long term in four out of six distinct market environments.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, behavioral finance, Bayes' decision, algorithmic trading, risk control, stock market

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Authors: Mahvish Anwaar

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Research Question: In this paper, we explore the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Research Findings: The unbalanced panel data starting from 2000 to 2018 is collected to analyze the causality among banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. The main focus of the study is to check the direction of causality among selected variables. The results of the study support the demand following, supply leading, feedback, and neutrality hypothesis conditional to different measures of banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Theoretical Implication: Jayakumar, Pradhan, Dash, Maradana, and Gaurav (2018) proposed a theoretical model of the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth by using different indicators. So, we empirically test the proposed indicators in our study. This study makes a contribution to the literature by showing the defined relationship between developing and developed countries. Policy Implications: The study covers various policy implications regarding investors to analyze how to properly manage their finances, and government agencies will take help from the present study to find the best and most suitable policies by examining how the economy can grow concerning its finances.

Keywords: competition, stability, economic growth, vector auto-regression, granger causality

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Authors: Tahira Iram, Ahmad Raza Bilal

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In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) initiated Saudi Vision 2030, an ambitious plan to lessen the country's dependency on fossil fuels and increase economic diversification. The Vision 2030 framework strives to establish a thriving economy, a vibrant society, and an ambitious nation. This study aims to investigate the role of green service innovation (SI) and green work engagement (WE) in mediating the nexus between green HRM and green creativity (GC) under the conditional role of spiritual leadership (SL). A survey was done of 300 female intrepreneurs working in the organization within Saudi Arabia. This study has collected data via a stratified random sampling technique. The framework was tested using PLS-SEM software. The findings reveal that WE fully intervenes in the nexus between green HRM and GC. Moreover, SL positively moderates the nexus between green HRM and SI. Thus based on findings, it is recommended that female intrapreneurs prioritize environmentally responsible operations to gain and sustain a competitive edge over rivals in the Saudi competitive market.

Keywords: green HRM, spiritual leadership, Vision 2030, women intrapreneurs, green service innovation behavior, green creativity

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Authors: Elijah Acquah-Andoh

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The UK has had its fair share of the shale gas revolutionary waves blowing across the global oil and gas industry at present. Although, its exploitation is widely agreed to have been delayed, shale gas was looked upon favorably by the UK Parliament when they recognized it as genuine energy source and granted licenses to industry to search and extract the resource. This, although a significant progress by industry, there yet remains another test the UK fracking resource must pass in order to render shale gas extraction feasible – it must be economically extractible and sustainably so. Developing unconventional resources is much more expensive and risky, and for shale gas wells, producing in commercial volumes is conditional upon drilling horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing, techniques which increase CAPEX. Meanwhile, investment in shale gas development projects is sensitive to gas price and technical and geological risks. Using a Two-Factor Model, the economics of the Bowland shale wells were analyzed and the operational conditions under which fracking is profitable in the UK was characterized. We find that there is a great degree of flexibility about Opex spending; hence Opex does not pose much threat to the fracking industry in the UK. However, we discover Bowland shale gas wells fail to add value at gas price of $8/ Mmbtu. A minimum gas price of $12/Mmbtu at Opex of no more than $2/ Mcf and no more than $14.95M Capex are required to create value within the present petroleum tax regime, in the UK fracking industry.

Keywords: capex, economical, investment, profitability, shale gas development, sustainable

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Authors: A. W. Chalmers, O. M. van den Broek

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This article examines the relationship between the global financial crisis and corporate social responsibility activities of financial services firms. It challenges the general consensus in existing studies that firms, when faced with economic hardship, tend to jettison CSR commitments. Instead, and building on recent insights into the institutional determinants of CSR, it is argued that firms are constrained in their ability to abandon CSR by the extent to which they are subject to intense public scrutiny by regulators and the news media. This argument is tested in the context of the European sovereign debt crisis drawing on a unique dataset of 170 firms in 15 different countries over a six-year period. Controlling for a battery of alternative explanations and comparing financial service providers to firms operating in other economic sectors, results indicate considerable evidence supporting the main argument. Rather than abandoning CSR during times of economic hardship, financial industry firms ramp up their CSR commitments in order to manage their public image and foster public trust in light of intense public scrutiny.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility (CSR), public scrutiny, global financial crisis, financial services firms

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Authors: Sirapop Nuannimnoi, Hojjat Baghban, Ching-Yao Huang

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Over the past decade, with the fast development of blockchain technology since the birth of Bitcoin, there has been a massive increase in the usage of Cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are not seen as an investment opportunity due to the market’s erratic behavior and high price volatility. With the recent success of deep reinforcement learning (DRL), portfolio management can be modeled and automated. In this paper, we propose a novel DRL-based multi-agent system to automatically make proper trading decisions on multiple cryptocurrencies and gain profits in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. We also extend this multi-agent system with horizontal federated transfer learning for better adapting to the inclusion of new cryptocurrencies in our portfolio; therefore, we can, through the concept of diversification, maximize our profits and minimize the trading risks. Experimental results through multiple simulation scenarios reveal that this proposed algorithmic trading system can offer three promising key advantages over other systems, including maximized profits, minimized risks, and adaptability.

Keywords: cryptocurrency portfolio management, algorithmic trading, federated learning, multi-agent reinforcement learning

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Logistics service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilisation and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transport capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organise more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe such planning aspects, this paper gives a structured literature review on transport planning problems. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing-, network-design- and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research objectives

Keywords: choice of transport mode, fleet-sizing, freight transport planning, multimodal, review, service network design

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Authors: Chayanika Hazarika Bordoloi

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This paper is an attempt to work on a highly inflectional language called Assamese. This is also one of the national languages of India and very little has been achieved in terms of computational research. Building a language processing tool for a natural language is not very smooth as the standard and language representation change at various levels. This paper presents inflectional suffixes of Assamese verbs and how the statistical tools, along with linguistic features, can improve the tagging accuracy. Conditional random fields (CRF tool) was used to automatically tag and train the text data; however, accuracy was improved after linguistic featured were fed into the training data. Assamese is a highly inflectional language; hence, it is challenging to standardizing its morphology. Inflectional suffixes are used as a feature of the text data. In order to analyze the inflections of Assamese word forms, a list of suffixes is prepared. This list comprises suffixes, comprising of all possible suffixes that various categories can take is prepared. Assamese words can be classified into inflected classes (noun, pronoun, adjective and verb) and un-inflected classes (adverb and particle). The corpus used for this morphological analysis has huge tokens. The corpus is a mixed corpus and it has given satisfactory accuracy. The accuracy rate of the tagger has gradually improved with the modified training data.

Keywords: CRF, morphology, tagging, tagset

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Authors: Shamm Kidane, Ibrahim Abdella, Fitsum Gaim, Simon Mulugeta, Sirak Asmerom, Natnael Ambasager, Yoel Ghebrihiwot

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The call for natural language processing (NLP) systems for low-resource languages has become more apparent than ever in the past few years, with the arduous challenges still present in preparing such systems. This paper presents an improved dataset version of the Nagaoka Tigrinya Corpus for Parts-of-Speech (POS) classification system in the Tigrinya language. The size of the initial Nagaoka dataset was incremented, totaling the new tagged corpus to 118K tokens, which comprised the 12 basic POS annotations used previously. The additional content was also annotated manually in a stringent manner, followed similar rules to the former dataset and was formatted in CONLL format. The system made use of the novel approach in NLP tasks and use of the monolingually pre-trained TiELECTRA, TiBERT and TiRoBERTa transformer models. The highest achieved score is an impressive weighted F1-score of 94.2%, which surpassed the previous systems by a significant measure. The system will prove useful in the progress of NLP-related tasks for Tigrinya and similarly related low-resource languages with room for cross-referencing higher-resource languages.

Keywords: Tigrinya POS corpus, TiBERT, TiRoBERTa, conditional random fields

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Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

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In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

Abstract:

Transportation service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilization and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transportation capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organize more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe these planning aspects, this paper gives an overview on transportation planning problems in a structured way. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing, service-network-design and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented, and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research directions.

Keywords: freight transportation planning, multimodal, fleet-sizing, service network design, choice of transportation mode, review

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

Abstract:

It is known that the most crucial influence of the psychological, social and emotional factors that affect any human behavior is to corrupt the rational decision making mechanism of the individuals and cause them to display irrational behaviors. In this regard, the social context of human beings influences the rationality of our decisions, and people tend to display different behaviors when they were alone compared to when they were surrounded by others. At this point, the interaction and interdependence of the behavioral finance and economics with the area of social psychology comes, where intentions and the behaviors of the individuals are being analyzed in the actual or implied presence of others comes into prominence. Within the context of this study, the prevalent theories of behavioral finance, which are The Prospect Theory, The Utility Theory Given Uncertainty and the Five Axioms of Choice under Uncertainty, Veblen’s Hidden Utility Theory, and the concept of ‘Overreaction’ has been examined and demonstrated; and the meaning, existence and validity of these theories together with the social context has been assessed. Finally, in this study the behavior of the individuals in financial crisis situations where the majority of the society is being affected from the same negative conditions at the same time has been analyzed, by taking into account how individual behavior will change according to the presence of the others.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

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Authors: Anandita Mitro, Archana Srivastava, Bidisha Banerjee

Abstract:

The present paper attempts to analyze the hierarchy and interconnection of factors responsible for the uptake of BCG vaccination in India. The study uses National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data which was conducted during 2019-21. The univariate logistic regression method is used to understand the univariate effects while the interconnection effects have been studied using the Categorical Inference Tree (CIT) which is a non-parametric Machine Learning (ML) model. The hierarchy of the factors is further established using Conditional Inference Forest which is an extension of the CIT approach. The results suggest that BCG vaccination coverage was influenced more by system-level factors and awareness than education or socio-economic status. Factors such as place of delivery, antenatal care, and postnatal care were crucial, with variations based on delivery location. Region-specific differences were also observed which could be explained by the factors. Awareness of the disease was less impactful along with the factor of wealth and urban or rural residence, although awareness did appear to substitute for inadequate ANC. Thus, from the policy point of view, it is revealed that certain subpopulations have less prevalence of vaccination which implies that there is a need for population-specific policy action to achieve a hundred percent coverage.

Keywords: vaccination, NFHS, machine learning, public health

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