Search results for: catastrophe failure

Authors: Muhammad Naveed Iftikhar, Farah Khalid

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Global best practices as ordained by international organizations comprise a broader top-down approach to development problems, without taking into account country-specific factors. The political economy of each country is extremely different and the failure of several attempts of international organizations to implement global best practice models in developing countries each with its unique set of variables, goes on to show that this is not the most efficient solution to development problems. This paper is a humble attempt at shedding light on some specific examples of failures of the global best practices. Pakistan has its unique set of problems and unless those are added to the broader equation of development, country-specific reform and growth will continue to pose a challenge to reform programs initiated by international organizations. The three case studies presented in this paper are just a few prominent examples of failure of the global best practice, top-down, universalistic approach to development as ordained by international organizations. Development and reform can only be achieved if local dynamics are given their due importance. The modus operandi of international organizations needs to be tailored according to each country’s unique politico-economic environment.

Keywords: best practice, development, context

Procedia PDF Downloads 473

Authors: Hadeer E. Eliwa, Naglaa S. Bazan, Ebtissam A. Darweesh, Nagwa A. Sabri

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Background: Generic substitution of brand ivabradine prescriptions can reduce drug expenditures and improve adherence. However, the distrust of generic medicines by practitioners and patients due to doubts regarding their quality and fear of counterfeiting compromise the acceptance of this practice. Aim: The goal of this study is to compare the therapeutic equivalence of brand product versus the generic product of ivabradine in adult patients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (≤ 40%) (HFrEF). Methodology: Thirty-two Egyptian patients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were treated with branded ivabradine (Procrolan ©) and generic (Bradipect ©) during 24 (2x12) weeks. Primary outcomes were resting heart rate (HR), NYHA FC, Quality of life (QoL) using Minnesota Living with Heart Failure (MLWHF) and EF. Secondary outcomes were the number of hospitalizations for worsening HFrEF and adverse effects. The washout period was not allowed. Findings: At the 12th week, the reduction in HR was comparable in the two groups (90.13±7.11 to 69±11.41 vs 96.13±17.58 to 67.31±8.68 bpm in brand and generic groups, respectively). Also, the increase in EF was comparable in the two groups (27.44 ±4.59 to 33.38±5.62 vs 32±5.96 to 39.31±8.95 in brand and generic groups, respectively). The improvement in NYHA FC was comparable in both groups (87.5% in brand group vs 93.8% in the generic group). The mean value of the QOL improved from 31.63±15.8 to 19.6±14.7 vs 35.68±17.63 to 22.9±15.1 for the brand and generic groups, respectively. Similarly, at end of 24 weeks, no significant changes were observed from data observed at 12th week regarding HR, EF, QoL and NYHA FC. Only minor side effects, mainly phosphenes, and a comparable number of hospitalizations were observed in both groups. Conclusion: The study revealed no statistically significant differences in the therapeutic effect and safety between generic and branded ivabradine. We assume that practitioners can safely interchange between them for economic reasons.

Keywords: bradipect©, heart failure, ivabradine, Procrolan ©, therapeutic equivalence

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Authors: Parthasarathi Pramanik

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Body packing is a way of transfer drugs across the international border or any drug prohibited area. The drugs are usually hidden in body packets inside the anatomical body cavities like mouth, intestines, rectum, ear, vagina etc. Cocaine is a very common drug for body packing across the world. A 48 year old male was reported dead in his hotel after complaining of chest pain and vomiting. At autopsy, there were eighty-two white cylindrical body packs in the stomach, small and large intestines. Seals of few of the packets were opened. Toxicological examination revealed presence of cocaine in the stomach, liver, kidney and hair samples. Microscopically, presence of myocardial necrosis with interstitial oedema along with hypertrophy and fibrosis of the myocardial fibre suggested heart failure due to cocaine cardio toxicity. However, focal lymphocyte infiltration and perivascular fibrosis in the myocardium also indicated chronic cocaine toxicity of the deceased. After careful autopsy examination it was considered the victim was died due congestive heart failure secondary to acute and chronic cocaine poisoning.

Keywords: cardiac failure, cocaine, body packer, sudden death

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Authors: Anjana Aggarwal, Sheilja Walia

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Prevalence of obesity and overweight is increasing due to sedentary lifestyles and busy schedules of people that spend less time on physical exercise. To reduce weight, people are finding easier and more convenient ways. The easiest solution is the use of dietary supplements and fat burners. These are products that decrease body weight by increasing the basal metabolic rate. Various reports have been published on the consumption of fat burners leading to heart palpitations, seizures, anxiety, depression, psychosis, bradycardia, insomnia, muscle contractions, hepatotoxicity, and even liver failure. Case reports and series are reporting that the ingredients present in the fat burners caused acute liver failure (ALF) and hepatic toxicity in many cases. Another contributing factor is the absence of regulations from the Food and Drug Administration on these products, leading to increased consumption and a higher risk of liver diseases among the population. This systematic review aims to attain a better understanding of the dietary supplements used globally to reduce weight and document the case reports/series of acute liver failure caused by the consumption of fat burners. Electronic databases like PubMed, Cochrane, Google Scholar, etc., will be systematically searched for relevant articles. Various websites of dietary products and brands that sell such supplements, Journals of Hepatology, National and international projects launched for ALF, and their reports, along with the review of grey literature, will also be done to get a better understanding of the topic. After discussing with the co-author, the selection and screening of the articles will be performed by the author. The studies will be selected based on the predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The case reports and case series that will be included in the final list of the studies will be assessed for methodological quality using the CARE guidelines. The results from this study will provide insights and a better understanding of fat burners. Since the supplements are easily available in the market without any restrictions on their sale, people are unaware of their adverse effects. The consumption of these supplements causes acute liver failure. Thus, this review will provide a platform for future larger studies to be conducted.

Keywords: acute liver failure, dietary supplements, fat burners, weight loss supplements

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Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

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Authors: Lutfi Abosrra, Alseddeq Alabaoub, Nuri Elhaloudi

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Corrosion processes in the Oil & Gas industry can lead to failures that are usually costly to repair, costly in terms of loss of contaminated product, in terms of environmental damage and possibly costly in terms of human safety. This article describes the results of the corrosion review and criticality assessment done at Mellitah Gas (SRU unit) for pressure equipment and piping system. The information gathered through the review was intended for developing a qualitative RBI study. The corrosion criticality assessment has been carried out by applying company procedures and industrial recommended practices such as API 571, API 580/581, ASME PCC 3, which provides a guideline for establishing corrosion integrity assessment. The corrosion review is intimately related to the probability of failure (POF). During the corrosion study, the process units are reviewed by following the applicable process flow diagrams (PFDs) in the presence of Mellitah’s personnel from process engineering, inspection, and corrosion/materials and reliability engineers. The expected corrosion damage mechanism (internal and external) was identified, and the corrosion rate was estimated for every piece of equipment and corrosion loop in the process units. A combination of both Consequence and Likelihood of failure was used for determining the corrosion risk. A qualitative consequence of failure (COF) for each individual item was assigned based on the characteristics of the fluid as per its flammability, toxicity, and pollution into three levels (High, Medium, and Low). A qualitative probability of failure (POF)was applied to evaluate the internal and external degradation mechanism, a high-level point-based (0 to 10) for the purpose of risk prioritizing in the range of Low, Medium, and High.

Keywords: corrosion, criticality assessment, RBI, POF, COF

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Authors: Payel Datta, Abhishek Das, Abhishek Roychoudhury, Dhiman Chattopadhyay, Tanushyam Chattopadhyay

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Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) is most predominantly used in image/video processing, natural language processing (NLP), audio and speech recognition but not that much used in system performance evaluation. In this paper, authors are going to describe the architecture of an abstraction layer constructed using ML/DL to detect the system failure. This proposed system is used to detect the system failure by evaluating the performance metrics of an IoT service deployment under constrained infrastructure environment. This system has been tested on the manually annotated data set containing different metrics of the system, like number of threads, throughput, average response time, CPU usage, memory usage, network input/output captured in different hardware environments like edge (atom based gateway) and cloud (AWS EC2). The main challenge of developing such system is that the accuracy of classification should be 100% as the error in the system has an impact on the degradation of the service performance and thus consequently affect the reliability and high availability which is mandatory for an IoT system. Proposed ML/DL classifiers work with 100% accuracy for the data set of nearly 4,000 samples captured within the organization.

Keywords: machine learning, system performance, performance metrics, IoT, edge

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Authors: A. Kherraf, M. Bouziane, L. Azzouzi, R. Habbal

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Introduction: Hypocalcaemia is a rare cause of heart failure. We report the clinical case of a young patient with reversible dilated cardiomyopathy secondary to hypocalcaemia in the context of hyperparathyroidism. Clinical case: We report the clinical case of a 23-year-old patient with a history of thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma 3 years previously, who presented to the emergency room with a progressive onset dyspnea and edema of the lower limbs. Clinical examination showed hypotension at 90/70 mmHg, tachycardia at 102 bpm, and edema of the lower limbs. The ECG showed a regular sinus rhythm with a prolonged corrected QT interval to 520ms. The chest x-ray showed cardiomegaly. Echocardiography revealed dilated cardiomyopathy with biventricular dysfunction and a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45%, as well as moderate mitral insufficiency by restriction of the posterior mitral leaflet, moderate tricuspid insufficiency, and a dilated inferior vena cava with a pulmonary arterial pressure estimated at 46 mmHg. Blood tests revealed severe hypocalcemia at 38 mg / l with normal albumin and thyroxine levels, as well as hyperphosphatemia and increased TSH. The patient received calcium intake and vitamin D supplementation and was treated with beta blockers, ACE inhibitors, and diuretics with good progress and progressive normalization of cardiac function. Discussion: The cardiovascular manifestations of hypocalcaemia usually appear with deeply low serum calcium levels. This can lead to hypotension, arrhythmias, ventricular fibrillation, prolonged QT interval, or even heart failure. Heart failure is a rare and serious complication of hypocalcemia but most often characterized by complete normalization of myocardial function after treatment. The etiology of the hypocalcaemia, in this case, was probably related to accidental parathyroid removal during thyroidectomy. This is why careful monitoring of calcium levels is recommended after surgery. Conclusion: Hypocalcemic heart failure is rare but reversible heart disease. Systematic monitoring of serum calcium should be performed in all patients after thyroid surgery to avoid any complications related to hypoparathyroidism.

Keywords: hypocalcemia, heart failure, thyroid surgery, hypoparathyroidism

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Authors: Yen-Luan Chen

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Maintenance has a great impact on the capacity of production and on the quality of the products, and therefore, it deserves continuous improvement. Maintenance procedure done before a failure is called preventive maintenance (PM). Sequential PM, which specifies that a system should be maintained at a sequence of intervals with unequal lengths, is one of the commonly used PM policies. This article proposes a generalized sequential PM policy for a system subject to shocks with imperfect maintenance and random working time. The shocks arrive according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with varied intensity function in each maintenance interval. As a shock occurs, the system suffers two types of failures with number-dependent probabilities: type-I (minor) failure, which is rectified by a minimal repair, and type-II (catastrophic) failure, which is removed by a corrective maintenance (CM). The imperfect maintenance is carried out to improve the system failure characteristic due to the altered shock process. The sequential preventive maintenance-last (PML) policy is defined as that the system is maintained before any CM occurs at a planned time Ti or at the completion of a working time in the i-th maintenance interval, whichever occurs last. At the N-th maintenance, the system is replaced rather than maintained. This article first takes up the sequential PML policy with random working time and imperfect maintenance in reliability engineering. The optimal preventive maintenance schedule that minimizes the mean cost rate of a replacement cycle is derived analytically and determined in terms of its existence and uniqueness. The proposed models provide a general framework for analyzing the maintenance policies in reliability theory.

Keywords: optimization, preventive maintenance, random working time, minimal repair, replacement, reliability

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Authors: N. Nalini, Lokesh B. Bhajantri

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In Distributed Sensor Networks, the sensor nodes are prone to failure due to energy depletion and some other reasons. In this regard, fault tolerance of network is essential in distributed sensor environment. Energy efficiency, network or topology control and fault-tolerance are the most important issues in the development of next-generation Distributed Sensor Networks (DSNs). This paper proposes a node fault detection and recovery using Genetic Algorithm (GA) in DSN when some of the sensor nodes are faulty. The main objective of this work is to provide fault tolerance mechanism which is energy efficient and responsive to network using GA, which is used to detect the faulty nodes in the network based on the energy depletion of node and link failure between nodes. The proposed fault detection model is used to detect faults at node level and network level faults (link failure and packet error). Finally, the performance parameters for the proposed scheme are evaluated.

Keywords: distributed sensor networks, genetic algorithm, fault detection and recovery, information technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: Debalke Dale, Bezabh Geneta, Yohannes Amene, Yordanos Bergene, Mohammed Yimam

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Background: A drug therapy problem (DTP) is an event or circumstance that involves drug therapies that actually or potentially interfere with the desired outcome and requires professional judgment to resolve. Heart failure is an emerging worldwide threat whose prevalence and health loss burden constantly increase, especially in the young and in low-to-middle-income countries. There is a lack of population-based incidence and prevalence of heart failure (HF) studies in sub-Saharan African countries, including Ethiopia. Objective: The aim of this study was designed to assess drug therapy problems and associated factors among patients with HF in the medical ward of Arba Minch General Hospital(AGH), Ethiopia, from June 5 to August 20, 2022. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 180 patients with HF who were admitted to the medical ward of AGH. Data were collected from patients' cards by using questionnaires. The data were categorized and analyzed by using SPSS version 25.0 software, and data were presented in tables and words based on the nature of the data. Result: Out of the total, 85 (57.6%) were females, and 113 (75.3%) patients were aged over fifty years. Of the 150 study participants, 86 (57.3%) patients had at least one DTP identified, and a total of 116 DTPs were identified, which is 0.77 DTPs per patient. The most common types of DTP were unnecessary drug therapy (32%), followed by the need for additional drug therapy (36%), and dose too low (15%). Patients who used polypharmacy were 5.86 (AOR) times more likely to develop DTPs than those who did not (95% CI = 1.625–16.536, P = 0.005), and patients with more co-morbid conditions developed 3.68 (AOR) times more DTPs than those who had fewer co-morbidities (95% CI = 1.28–10.5, P = 0.015). Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that drug therapy problems were common among medical ward patients with heart failure. These problems are adversely affecting the treatment outcomes of patients, so it requires the special attention of healthcare professionals to optimize them.

Keywords: heart failure, drug therapy problems, Arba Minch general hospital, Ethiopia

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Authors: Yeganeh Attari, Gudmund Reidar Eiksund, Hans Peter Jostad

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In Geotechnical practice, there is no standard method recognized by the industry to account for the reduction of safety factor of a slope as an effect of soil displacement and pore pressure build-up during pile installation. Pile driving disturbs causes large strains and generates excess pore pressures in a zone that can extend many diameters from the installed pile, resulting in a decrease of the shear strength of the surrounding soil. This phenomenon may cause slope failure. Moreover, dissipation of excess pore pressure set-up may cause weakening of areas outside the volume of soil remoulded during installation. Because of complex interactions between changes in mean stress and shearing, it is challenging to predict installation induced pore pressure response. Furthermore, it is a complex task to follow the rate and path of pore pressure dissipation in order to analyze slope stability. In cohesive soils it is necessary to implement soil models that account for strain softening in the analysis. In the literature, several cases of slope failure due to pile driving activities have been reported, for instance, a landslide in Gothenburg that resulted in a slope failure destroying more than thirty houses and Rigaud landslide in Quebec which resulted in loss of life. Up to now, several methods have been suggested to predict the effect of pile driving on total and effective stress, pore pressure changes and their effect on soil strength. However, this is still not well understood or agreed upon. In Norway, general approaches applied by geotechnical engineers for this problem are based on old empirical methods with little accurate theoretical background. While the limitations of such methods are discussed, this paper attempts to capture the reduction in the factor of safety of a slope during pile driving, using coupled Finite Element analysis and cavity expansion method. This is demonstrated by analyzing a case of slope failure due to pile driving in Norway.

Keywords: cavity expansion method, excess pore pressure, pile driving, slope failure

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Authors: Karina C. Azzolin, Luis E. Kosteski, Alisson S. Milani, Raquel C. Zydeck

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This work aims to represent Numerically tests experimentally developed in reduced scale walls with horizontal and inclined cuts by using the Lattice Discrete Element Method (LDEM) implemented On de Abaqus/explicit environment. The cuts were performed with depths of 20%, 30%, and 50% On the walls subjected to centered and eccentric loading. The parameters used to evaluate the numerical model are its strength, the failure mode, and the in-plane and out-of-plane displacements.

Keywords: structural masonry, wall chases, small scale, numerical model, lattice discrete element method

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Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

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Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

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Authors: Santanu Chattopadhyay, Gautam Sarkar, Arabinda Das

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This paper presents wavelet based classification of various heart diseases. Electrocardiogram signals of different heart patients have been studied. Statistical natures of electrocardiogram signals for different heart diseases have been compared with the statistical nature of electrocardiograms for normal persons. Under this study four different heart diseases have been considered as follows: Myocardial Ischemia (MI), Congestive Heart Failure (CHF), Arrhythmia and Sleep Apnea. Statistical nature of electrocardiograms for each case has been considered in terms of kurtosis values of two types of wavelet coefficients: approximate and detail. Nine wavelet decomposition levels have been considered in each case. Kurtosis corresponding to both approximate and detail coefficients has been considered for decomposition level one to decomposition level nine. Based on significant difference, few decomposition levels have been chosen and then used for classification.

Keywords: arrhythmia, congestive heart failure, discrete wavelet transform, electrocardiogram, myocardial ischemia, sleep apnea

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Authors: Reza Behboodian

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Monitoring the structural health and diagnosing their damage in the early stages has always been one of the topics of concern. Nowadays, research on structural damage detection methods based on vibration analysis is very extensive. Moreover, these methods can be used as methods of permanent and timely inspection of structures and prevent further damage to structures. Non-destructive methods are the low-cost and economical methods for determining the damage of structures. In this research, a non-destructive method for detecting and identifying the failure location in structures based on dynamic responses resulting from time history analysis is proposed. When the structure is damaged due to the reduction of stiffness, and due to the applied loads, the displacements in different parts of the structure were increased. In the proposed method, the damage position is determined based on the calculation of the strain energy difference in each member of the damaged structure and the healthy structure at any time. Defective members of the structure are indicated by the amount of strain energy relative to the healthy state. The results indicated that the proper accuracy and performance of the proposed method for identifying failure in structures.

Keywords: failure, time history analysis, dynamic response, strain energy

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Authors: Chia-Ching Tsai

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In service delivery, interpersonal interaction is the key to customer satisfaction, and apparently, the factor of human is critical in service delivery. Besides, customers quite care about the consequences of co-recovery. Thus, this research focuses on service failure caused by other customers and uses a 2x2 factorial design to investigate the impact of consequence and level of service co-recovery on post-recovery satisfaction and repurchase intent. 150 undergraduates were recruited as participants, and assigned to one of the four cells randomly. Every participant was requested to read the scenario and then rated the post-recovery satisfaction and repurchase intent. The results show that under the condition of failed co-recovery, level of co-recovery has no effect on post-recovery satisfaction, while under the condition of successful co-recovery, high-level co-recovery causes significantly higher post-recovery satisfaction than low-level co-recovery. Moreover, post-recovery satisfaction has significantly positive impact on repurchase intent. In the system of service delivery, customers interact with other customers frequently. Therefore, comparing with the literature, this research focuses on the service failure caused by other customers. This research also supplies a better understanding of customers’ view on consequences of different levels of co-recovery, which is helpful for the practitioners to make use of co-recovery.

Keywords: service failure, service co-recovery, consequence of co-recovery, level of co-recovery, post-recovery satisfaction, repurchase intent

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Authors: Ali Sagiroglu, Sema Noyan Alacali, Guray Arslan

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This paper presents a study on the influence of the safety factor in the concrete contribution to shear strength of high-strength concrete (HSC) beams according to TS500. In TS500, the contribution of concrete to shear strength is obtained by reducing diagonal cracking strength with a safety factor of 0.8. It was investigated that the coefficient of 0.8 considered in determining the contribution of concrete to the shear strength corresponds to which value of failure probability. Also, the changes in the reduction factor depending on different coefficients of variation of concrete were examined.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, beam, shear strength, failure probability, safety factor

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. This paper will try to introduce another way of calculating reliability by using R statistical software. R is a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics. It compiles and runs on a wide variety of UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS. The R programming environment is a widely used open source system for statistical analysis and statistical programming. It includes thousands of functions for the implementation of both standard and new statistical methods. R does not limit user only to operation related only to these functions. This program has many benefits over other similar programs: it is free and, as an open source, constantly updated; it has built-in help system; the R language is easy to extend with user-written functions. The significance of the work is calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. Seventy generators were studied. For each one, the number of hours of running time from its first being put into service until fan failure or until the end of the study (whichever came first) was recorded. Dataset consists of two variables: hours and status. Hours show the time of each fan working and status shows the event: 1- failed, 0- censored data. Censored data represent cases when we cannot track the specific case, so it could fail or success. Gaining the result by using R was easy and quick. The program will take into consideration censored data and include this into the results. This is not so easy in hand calculation. For the purpose of the paper results from R program have been compared to hand calculations in two different cases: censored data taken as a failure and censored data taken as a success. In all three cases, results are significantly different. If user decides to use the R for further calculations, it will give more precise results with work on censored data than the hand calculation.

Keywords: censored data, R statistical software, reliability analysis, time to failure

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Authors: Amin H. Almasria, Rajai Z. Alrousanb, Al-Harith Manasrah

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The collapse of a light weight pedestrian bridges due to vehicle collision is investigated and studied in detail using a dynamic nonlinear finite element analysis. Typical bridge widely used in Jordan is studied and modeled under truck collision using one dimensional beam finite element in order to minimize analysis time due to the dynamic nature of the problem. Truck collision with the bridge is simulated at different speeds and locations of collisions using dynamic explicit finite element scheme with material nonlinearity taken into account. Energy absorption of bridge is investigated through principle of energy conservation, where truck kinetic energy is assumed to be stored in the bridge as strain energy. Weak failure points in the bridges were identified, and modifications are proposed in order to strengthen the bridge structure and prevent total collapse. The proposed design modifications on bridge structure were successful in allowing the bridge to fail locally rather than globally and expected to help in saving lives.

Keywords: finite element method, dynamic impact, pedestrian bridges, strain energy, collapse failure

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Authors: Omar A. Farghal

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This research aimed to experimentally and analytically investigate the contribution of bonded web carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) sheets to the shear strength of reinforced concrete (RC) T-beams. Two strengthening techniques using CFRP strips were applied along the shear-span zone: the first one is vertical U-jacket and the later is vertical strips bonded to the beam sides only. Fibers of both U-jacket and side sheets were vertically oriented (θ = 90°). Test results showed that the strengthening technique with U-jacket CFRP sheets improved the shear strength particularly. Three mechanisms of failure were recognized for the tested beams depending upon the end condition of the bonded CFRP sheet. Although the failure mode for the different beams was a brittle one, the strengthened beams provided with U-jacket CFRP sheets showed more or less a ductile behavior at a higher loading level up to a load level just before failure. As a consequence, these beams approved an acceptable enhancement in the structural ductility. Moreover, the obtained results concerning both the strains induced in the CFRP sheets and the maximum loads are used to study the applicability of the analytical models proposed in this study (ACI code) to predict: the nominal shear strength of the strengthened beams.

Keywords: carbon fiber reinforced polymer, wrapping, ductility, shear strengthening

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Authors: Feng Zhang

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Kashin-Beck disease (KBD) is a chronic osteochondropathy. The mechanism of hand growth and development failure of KBD remains elusive now. In this study, we conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) of palmar length-width ratio (LWR) of KBD, totally involving 493 Chinese Han KBD patients. Affymetrix Genome Wide Human SNP Array 6.0 was applied for SNP genotyping. Association analysis was conducted by PLINK software. Imputation analysis was performed by IMPUTE against the reference panel of the 1000 genome project. In the GWAS, the most significant association was observed between palmar LWR and rs2071358 of COL2A1 gene (P value = 4.68×10-8). Imputation analysis identified 3 SNPs surrounding rs2071358 with significant or suggestive association signals. Replication study observed additional significant association signals at both rs2071358 (P value = 0.017) and rs4760608 (P value = 0.002) of COL2A1 gene after Bonferroni correction. Our results suggest that COL2A1 gene was a novel susceptibility gene involved in the growth and development failure of hand of KBD.

Keywords: Kashin-Beck disease, genome-wide association study, COL2A1, hand

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Authors: Chin-Chih Chang

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Many manufacturing systems suffer failures due to complex degradation processes and various environment conditions such as random shocks. Consider an operating system is subject to random shocks and works at random times for successive jobs. When successive jobs often result in production losses and performance deterioration, it would be better to do maintenance or replacement at a planned time. A preventive replacement (PR) policy is presented to replace the system before a failure occurs at a continuous time T. In such a policy, the failure characteristics of the system are designed as follows. Each job would cause a random amount of additive damage to the system, and the system fails when the cumulative damage has exceeded a failure threshold. Suppose that the deteriorating system suffers one of the two types of shocks with age-dependent probabilities: type-I (minor) shock is rectified by a minimal repair, or type-II (catastrophic) shock causes the system to fail. A corrective replacement (CR) is performed immediately when the system fails. In summary, a generalized maintenance model to scheduling replacement plan for an operating system is presented below. PR is carried out at time T, whereas CR is carried out when any type-II shock occurs and the total damage exceeded a failure level. The main objective is to determine the optimal continuous schedule time of preventive replacement through minimizing the mean cost rate function. The existence and uniqueness of optimal replacement policy are derived analytically. It can be seen that the present model is a generalization of the previous models, and the policy with preventive replacement outperforms the one without preventive replacement.

Keywords: preventive replacement, working time, cumulative damage model, minimal repair, imperfect maintenance, optimization

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Authors: Mohammad Abdallah

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Due to the constant increase in terrorist attacks, the research and engineering communities have given significant attention to building performance under explosions. This paper presents a methodology for studying and simulating the dynamic responses of steel structures during external detonations, particularly for accurately investigating the impact of incrementing charge weight on the members total behavior, resistance and failure. Prediction damage method was introduced to evaluate the damage level of the steel members based on five scenarios of explosions. Johnson–Cook strength and failure model have been used as well as ABAQUS finite element code to simulate the explicit dynamic analysis, and antecedent field tests were used to verify the acceptance and accuracy of the proposed material strength and failure model. Based on the structural response, evaluation criteria such as deflection, vertical displacement, drift index, and damage level; the obtained results show the vulnerability of steel columns and un-braced steel frames which are designed and optimized to carry dead and live load to resist and endure blast loading.

Keywords: steel structure, blast load, terrorist attacks, charge weight, damage level

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Authors: Mohammed T. Shukri

Abstract:

The failure of bridges due to excessive local scour during floods poses a challenging problem to hydraulic engineers. The failure of bridges piers is due to many reasons such as localized scour combined with general riverbed degradation. In this paper, we try to estimate the temporal variation of scour depth at nonuniform cylindrical bridge pier, by experimental work conducted in hydraulic laboratories of Gaziantep University Civil Engineering Department on a flume having dimensions of 8.3 m length, 0.8 m width and 0.9 m depth. The experiments will be carried on 20 cm depth of sediment layer having d₅₀=0.4 mm. Three bridge pier shapes having different scaled models will be constructed in a 1.5m of test section in the channel.

Keywords: scour, local scour, bridge piers, scour depth

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Authors: Amir Ghasem Norouzi, Mahdi Zowghi

Abstract:

This study propose a framework based on the fuzzy T-Norms, T-conorm, a novel operator, and multi-expert approach to help organizations build awareness of the critical influential factors on the success of knowledge management (KM) implementation, analysis the failure of knowledge management. This study considers the complex uncertainty concept that is in knowledge management implementing capability (KMIC) and it is used by fuzzy logic for this reason. The contribution of our paper is shown with an empirical study in a nonprofit educational organization evaluation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, knowledge management, multi expert analysis, consensus oriented average operator

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Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

Abstract:

Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Mostafa Jafarian Abyaneh, Khashayar Jafari, Vahab Toufigh

Abstract:

The cost of experiments on different types of concrete has raised the demand for prediction of their behavior with numerical analysis. In this research, an advanced numerical model has been presented to predict the complete elastic-plastic behavior of polymer concrete (PC), high-strength concrete (HSC), high performance concrete (HPC) along with different steel fiber contents under uniaxial compression. The accuracy of the numerical response was satisfactory as compared to other conventional simple models such as Mohr-Coulomb and Drucker-Prager. In order to predict the complete elastic-plastic behavior of specimens including softening behavior, disturbed state concept (DSC) was implemented by nonlinear finite element analysis (NFEA) and hierarchical single surface (HISS) failure criterion, which is a failure surface without any singularity.

Keywords: disturbed state concept (DSC), hierarchical single surface (HISS) failure criterion, high performance concrete (HPC), high-strength concrete (HSC), nonlinear finite element analysis (NFEA), polymer concrete (PC), steel fibers, uniaxial compression test

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Authors: Fatema-Tuz-Zahura, Raquib Ahsan

Abstract:

Punching shear failure is usually the governing failure mode of flat plate structures. Punching failure is brittle in nature which induces more vulnerability to this type of structure. In the present study, a 3D finite element model of a flat plate with low reinforcement ratio and without any transverse reinforcement has been developed. Punching shear stress and the deflection data were obtained on the surface of the flat plate as well as through the thickness of the model from numerical simulations. The obtained data were compared with the experimental results. Variation of punching stress with respect to deflection as obtained from numerical results is found to be in good agreement with the experimental results; the range of variation of punching stress is within 5%. The numerical simulation shows an early and gradual onset of nonlinearity, whereas the same is late and abrupt as observed in the experimental results. The range of variation of punching stress for different slab thicknesses between experimental and numerical results is less than 15%. The developed numerical model is useful to complement available punching test series performed in the past. The results obtained from the numerical model will be helpful for designing retrofitting schemes of flat plates.

Keywords: flat plate, finite element model, punching shear, reinforcement ratio

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Authors: Subodh N. Patel, Abhijit Pusty, Manashi Adhikary, Sandip Bhattacharyya

Abstract:

The steam superheater (SH) is a coil type heat exchanger which is used to produce superheated steam or to convert the wet steam to dry steam (69.6 kg/cm² and 495°C), generated by a boiler. There were two superheaters in the system, SH I and SH II. SH II is a set of tubes that faces the initial interaction with flue gas at high temperature followed by SH I tubes. After a service life of 2100 hours, a tube in the SH II found to be punctured. Dye penetrant test revealed that out of 50 such tubes, 14 more tubes had severe cracks at a similar location. The failure was investigated in detail. The materials and scale were characterized by optical microscope and advance characterization technique. Scale, observed on fracture surface, was characterized under scanning electron microscope and Raman spectroscopy. Stresses acting on the tubes in working condition were analyzed by finite element method software, ANSYS. Cyclic stresses were observed in the simulation at the same prone location due to restriction in expansion of tubes. Based on scale characterization and stress analysis, it was concluded that the tube failed in thermo-mechanical fatigue. Finally, prevention and control measures were taken to avoid such failure in the future.

Keywords: finite element analysis, oxide scale, superheater tube, thermomechanical fatigue

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