Search results for: multivariate models.

Authors: Rishi Sharma, S. N. Maiti

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The non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of PP/SEBS-g-MA blends up to 0-50% concentration of copolymer was studied by differential scanning calorimetry at four different cooling rates. Crystallization parameters were analyzed by Avrami and Jeziorny models. Primary and secondary crystallization processes were described by Avrami equation. Avrami model showed that all types of shapes grow from small dimensions during primary crystallization. However, three-dimensional crystal growth was observed during the secondary crystallization process. The crystallization peak and onset temperature decrease, however

Keywords: crystallization kinetics, non-isothermal, polypropylene, SEBS-g-MA

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Authors: Sercan Altundemir, Pinar Eribol, A. Kerem Uguz

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Microfluidics systems allow many-large scale laboratory applications to be miniaturized on a single device in order to reduce cost and advance fluid control. Moreover, such systems enable to generate and control droplets which have a significant role on improved analysis for many chemical and biological applications. For example, they can be employed as the model for cells in microfluidic systems. In this work, the interfacial instability of two immiscible Newtonian liquids flowing in a microchannel is investigated. When two immiscible liquids are in laminar regime, a flat interface is formed between them. If a direct current electric field is applied, the interface may deform, i.e. may become unstable and it may be ruptured and form micro-droplets. First, the effect of thickness ratio, total flow rate, viscosity ratio of the silicone oil and ethylene glycol liquid couple on the critical voltage at which the interface starts to destabilize is investigated. Then the droplet sizes are measured under the effect of these parameters at various voltages. Moreover, the effect of total flow rate on the time elapsed for the interface to be ruptured to form droplets by hitting the wall of the channel is analyzed. It is observed that an increase in the viscosity or the thickness ratio of the silicone oil to the ethylene glycol has a stabilizing effect, i.e. a higher voltage is needed while the total flow rate has no effect on it. However, it is observed that an increase in the total flow rate results in shortening of the elapsed time for the interface to hit the wall. Moreover, the droplet size decreases down to 0.1 μL with an increase in the applied voltage, the viscosity ratio or the total flow rate or a decrease in the thickness ratio. In addition to these observations, two empirical models for determining the critical electric number, i.e., the dimensionless voltage and the droplet size and another model which is a combination of both models, for determining the droplet size at the critical voltage are established.

Keywords: droplet formation, electrohydrodynamics, microfluidics, two-phase flow

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Authors: Aishi Kundu, Elhan Raza

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"Necessity is the mother of invention" - Rapid increase in the global human population has directed the agricultural domain toward machine learning. The basic need of human beings is considered to be food which can be satisfied through farming. Farming is one of the major revenue generators for the Indian economy. Agriculture is not only considered a source of employment but also fulfils humans’ basic needs. So, agriculture is considered to be the source of employment and a pillar of the economy in developing countries like India. This paper provides a brief review of the progress made in implementing Machine Learning in the agricultural sector. Accurate predictions are necessary at the right time to boost production and to aid the timely and systematic distribution of agricultural commodities to make their availability in the market faster and more effective. This paper includes a thorough analysis of various machine learning algorithms applied in different aspects of agriculture (crop management, soil management, water management, yield tracking, livestock management, etc.).Due to climate changes, crop production is affected. Machine learning can analyse the changing patterns and come up with a suitable approach to minimize loss and maximize yield. Machine Learning algorithms/ models (regression, support vector machines, bayesian models, artificial neural networks, decision trees, etc.) are used in smart agriculture to analyze and predict specific outcomes which can be vital in increasing the productivity of the Agricultural Food Industry. It is to demonstrate vividly agricultural works under machine learning to sensor data. Machine Learning is the ongoing technology benefitting farmers to improve gains in agriculture and minimize losses. This paper discusses how the irrigation and farming management systems evolve in real-time efficiently. Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled programs to emerge with rich apprehension for the support of farmers with an immense examination of data.

Keywords: machine Learning, artificial intelligence, crop management, precision farming, smart farming, pre-harvesting, harvesting, post-harvesting

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Authors: Rebecca S. Hock, Cyralene P. Bryce, Kevin Williams, Arielle G. Rabinowitz, Janina R. Galler

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Background: Findings have been mixed regarding whether offspring of parents who were abused or neglected as children have a greater risk of experiencing abuse or neglect themselves. In addition, many studies on this topic are restricted to physical abuse and take place in a limited number of countries, representing a small segment of the world's population. Methods: We examined relationships between childhood maltreatment history assessed in a subset (N=68) of the original longitudinal birth cohort (G1) of the Barbados Nutrition Study and their now-adult offspring (G2) (N=111) using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire-Short Form (CTQ-SF). We used Pearson correlations to assess relationships between parent and offspring CTQ-SF total and subscale scores (physical, emotional, and sexual abuse; physical and emotional neglect). Next, we ran multiple regression analyses, using the parental CTQ-SF total score and the parental Sexual Abuse score as primary predictors separately in our models of G2 CTQ-SF (total and subscale scores). Results: G1 total CTQ-SF scores were correlated with G2 offspring Emotional Neglect and total scores. G1 Sexual Abuse history was significantly correlated with G2 Emotional Abuse, Sexual Abuse, Emotional Neglect, and Total Score. In fully-adjusted regression models, parental (G1) total CTQ-SF scores remained significantly associated with G2 offspring reports of Emotional Neglect, and parental (G1) Sexual Abuse was associated with offspring (G2) reports of Emotional Abuse, Physical Abuse, Emotional Neglect, and overall CTQ-SF scores. Conclusions: Our findings support a link between parental exposure to childhood maltreatment and their offspring's self-reported exposure to childhood maltreatment. Of note, there was not an exact correspondence between the subcategory of maltreatment experienced from one generation to the next. Compared with other subcategories, G1 Sexual Abuse history was the most likely to predict G2 offspring maltreatment. Further studies are needed to delineate underlying mechanisms and to develop intervention strategies aimed at preventing intergenerational transmission.

Keywords: trauma, family, adolescents, intergenerational trauma, child abuse, child neglect, global mental health, North America

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Authors: Branka Milicic Stanic, Romana Mijovic

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In primary hyperparathyroidism, an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease may exist due to increased activity of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS). In adenomatous altered tissue of parathyroid gland, compared to normal tissue, there are two to fourfold increase in the expression of type 1 angiotensin II receptors. As there is a clear evidence of the independent role of aldosterone on the cardiovascular system, the aim of this study was to evaluate the existence of an association between aldosterone secretion and parathyroid hormone in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism. This study included 48 patients with elevated parathyroid hormone who had come to the Departement of Nuclear Medicine, Clinical Center of Vojvodina, for Parathyroid Scintigraphy. The control group consisted of 30 healthy subjects who matched age and gender to the study group. All the results were statistically processed by statistical package STATISTICA 14 (Statsoft Inc,Tulsa, OK, USA). The survey was conducted between February 2017 and April 2018 at the Departement of Nuclear Medicine and at the Departement for Endocinology Diagnoistics, in Clinical Center of Vojvodina, Novi Sad. Compared to the control group, the study group had statistically significantly higher values of aldosterone (p=0.028), total calcium (p=0.01), ionized calcium (p=0.003) and parathyroid hormone (N-TACT PTH) (p=0.00), while statistically a significant lower levels in the study group were for phosphorus (p=0.003) and vitamin D (p=0.04). A linear correlation analysis in the study group revealed a statistically significant degree of positive correlation between renin and N-TACT PTH (r=0.688, p<0.05); renin and calcium (r=0.673, p<0.05) and renin and ionized calcium (r=0.641, p<0.05). Serum aldosterone and parathyroid hormone levels (N-TACT) were correlated positively in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (r=0.509, p<0.05). According to the linear correlation analysis in the control group, aldosterone showed no positive correlation with N-TACT PTH (r=-0.285, p>0.05), as well as total and ionized calcium (r=-0.200, p>0.05; r=-0.313, p>0.05). In multivariate regression analysis of the study group, the strongest predictive variable of aldosterone secretion was N-TACT PTH (p=0.011). Aldosterone correlated positively to PTH levels in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism, and the fact is that in these patients aldosterone might be a key mediator of cardiovascular symptoms. All this knowledge should help to find new treatments to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: aldosterone, hyperparathyroidism, parathyroid hormone, parathyroid gland

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Authors: Kemal Efe Eseller, Göktuğ Yazici

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Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a rapid optical atomic emission spectroscopy which is used for material identification and analysis with the advantages of in-situ analysis, elimination of intensive sample preparation, and micro-destructive properties for the material to be tested. LIBS delivers short pulses of laser beams onto the material in order to create plasma by excitation of the material to a certain threshold. The plasma characteristics, which consist of wavelength value and intensity amplitude, depends on the material and the experiment’s environment. In the present work, medicine samples’ spectrum profiles were obtained via LIBS. Medicine samples’ datasets include two different concentrations for both paracetamol based medicines, namely Aferin and Parafon. The spectrum data of the samples were preprocessed via filling outliers based on quartiles, smoothing spectra to eliminate noise and normalizing both wavelength and intensity axis. Statistical information was obtained and principal component analysis (PCA) was incorporated to both the preprocessed and raw datasets. The machine learning models were set based on two different train-test splits, which were 70% training – 30% test and 80% training – 20% test. Cross-validation was preferred to protect the models against overfitting; thus the sample amount is small. The machine learning results of preprocessed and raw datasets were subjected to comparison for both splits. This is the first time that all supervised machine learning classification algorithms; consisting of Decision Trees, Discriminant, naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), k-NN(k-Nearest Neighbor) Ensemble Learning and Neural Network algorithms; were incorporated to LIBS data of paracetamol based pharmaceutical samples, and their different concentrations on preprocessed and raw dataset in order to observe the effect of preprocessing.

Keywords: machine learning, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy, medicines, principal component analysis, preprocessing

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Ching-Hsiang Chen, Wei-Ting Hsu

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The purposes of the study were to explore the students' learning effect of physical education curriculum between merging Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model, which these learning effects included sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion, responsibility and game performance. The participants include 3 high school physical education teachers and 6 physical education classes, 133 participants with experience group 75 students and control group 58 students, and each teacher taught an experimental group and a control group for 16 weeks. The research methods used questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments included personal and social responsibility questionnaire, sport enthusiastic scale, group cohesion scale, sport self-efficacy scale and game performance assessment instrument. Multivariate Analysis of covariance and Repeated measure ANOVA were used to test difference of students' learning effects between merging TPSR with sport education model and TPSR with traditional teaching model. The findings of research were: 1) The sport education model with TPSR could improve students' learning effects, including sport self-efficacy, game performance, sport enthusiastic, group cohesion and responsibility. 2) The traditional teaching model with TPSR could improve students' learning effect, including sport self-efficacy, responsibility and game performance. 3) the sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects than traditional teaching model with TPSR, including sport self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic,responsibility and game performance. 4) Based on qualitative data about learning experience of teachers and students, sport education model with TPSR significant improve learning motivation, group interaction and game sense. The conclusions indicated sport education model with TPSR could improve more learning effects in physical education curriculum. On other hand, the curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model and TPSR-Traditional Teaching model are both good curricular projects of moral character education, which may be applied in school physical education.

Keywords: character education, sport season, game performance, sport competence

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Authors: Flavia Cordeiro, Fabio Silva, Alvaro Eiras, Jose Luiz Acebal

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Aedes aegypti is present in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world and is a vector of several diseases such as dengue fever, yellow fever, chikungunya, zika etc. The growth in the number of arboviruses cases in the last decades became a matter of great concern worldwide. Meteorological factors like mean temperature and precipitation are known to influence the infestation by the species through effects on physiology and ecology, altering the fecundity, mortality, lifespan, dispersion behaviour and abundance of the vector. Models able to describe the dynamics of the vector population size should then take into account the meteorological variables. The relationship between meteorological factors and the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti adult females are studied to provide a good set of predictors to model the dynamics of the mosquito population size. The time-series data of capture of adult females of a public health surveillance program from the city of Lavras, MG, Brazil had its association with precipitation, humidity and temperature analysed through a set of statistical methods for time series analysis commonly adopted in Signal Processing, Information Theory and Neuroscience. Cross-correlation, multicollinearity test and whitened cross-correlation were applied to determine in which time lags would occur the influence of meteorological variables on the dynamics of the mosquito abundance. Among the findings, the studied case indicated strong collinearity between humidity and precipitation, and precipitation was selected to form a pair of descriptors together with temperature. In the techniques used, there were observed significant associations between infestation indicators and both temperature and precipitation in short, mid and long terms, evincing that those variables should be considered in entomological models and as public health indicators. A descriptive model used to test the results exhibits a strong correlation to data.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, cross-correlation, multicollinearity, meteorological variables

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Authors: Muhammad Asim, Mehvish Amjad

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Background: Less than half of women in South Asia (SA) use any modern contraceptive method which leads to a huge burden of unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, maternal deaths, and socioeconomic loss. Women empowerment plays a pivotal role in improving various health seeking behaviours, including contraceptive use. The objective of this study to explore the association between women's empowerment and modern contraceptive, among rich and poor segment of population in SA. Methods: We used the most recent, large-scale, demographic health survey data of five South Asian countries, namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. The outcome variable was the current use of modern contraceptive methods. The main exposure variable was a combination (interaction) of socio-economic status (SES) and women’s level of empowerment (low, medium, and high), where SES was bifurcated into poor and rich; and women empowerment was divided into three categories: decision making, attitude to violence and social independence. Moreover, overall women empowerment indicator was also created by using three dimensions of women empowerment. We applied both descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression techniques for data analyses. Results: Most of the women possessed ‘medium’ level of empowerment across South Asian Countries. The lowest attitude to violence empowerment was found in Afghanistan, and the lowest social independence empowerment was observed in Bangladesh across SA. However, Pakistani women have the lowest decision-making empowerment in the region. The lowest modern contraceptive use (22.1%) was found in Afghanistan and the highest (53.2%) in Bangladesh. The multivariate results depict that the overall measure of women empowerment does not affect modern contraceptive use among poor and rich women in most of South Asian countries. However, the decision-making empowerment plays a significant role among both poor and rich women to use modern contraceptive methods across South Asian countries. Conclusions: The effect of women’s empowerment on modern contraceptive use is not consistent across countries, and among poor and rich segment of population. Of the three dimensions of women’s empowerment, the autonomy of decision making in household affairs emerged as a stronger determinant of mCPR as compared with social independence and attitude towards violence against women.

Keywords: women empowerment, modern contraceptive use, South Asia, socio economic status

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Authors: Mohamed Korany, Azza Gazy, Essam Khamis, Marwa Adel, Miranda Fawzy

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Background: Two new, simple and specific methods; First, a Zero-crossing first-derivative technique and second, a chemometric-assisted spectrophotometric artificial neural network (ANN) were developed and validated in accordance with ICH guidelines. Both methods were used for the simultaneous estimation of the two closely related antioxidant nutraceuticals ; Coenzyme Q10 (Q) ; also known as Ubidecarenone or Ubiquinone-10, and Vitamin E (E); alpha-tocopherol acetate, in their pharmaceutical binary mixture. Results: For first method: By applying the first derivative, both Q and E were alternatively determined; each at the zero-crossing of the other. The D1 amplitudes of Q and E, at 285 nm and 235 nm respectively, were recorded and correlated to their concentrations. The calibration curve is linear over the concentration range of 10-60 and 5.6-70 μg mL-1 for Q and E, respectively. For second method: ANN (as a multivariate calibration method) was developed and applied for the simultaneous determination of both analytes. A training set (or a concentration set) of 90 different synthetic mixtures containing Q and E, in wide concentration ranges between 0-100 µg/mL and 0-556 µg/mL respectively, were prepared in ethanol. The absorption spectra of the training sets were recorded in the spectral region of 230–300 nm. A Gradient Descend Back Propagation ANN chemometric calibration was computed by relating the concentration sets (x-block) to their corresponding absorption data (y-block). Another set of 45 synthetic mixtures of the two drugs, in defined range, was used to validate the proposed network. Neither chemical separation, preparation stage nor mathematical graphical treatment were required. Conclusions: The proposed methods were successfully applied for the assay of Q and E in laboratory prepared mixtures and combined pharmaceutical tablet with excellent recoveries. The ANN method was superior over the derivative technique as the former determined both drugs in the non-linear experimental conditions. It also offers rapidity, high accuracy, effort and money saving. Moreover, no need for an analyst for its application. Although the ANN technique needed a large training set, it is the method of choice in the routine analysis of Q and E tablet. No interference was observed from common pharmaceutical additives. The results of the two methods were compared together

Keywords: coenzyme Q10, vitamin E, chemometry, quantitative analysis, first derivative spectrophotometry, artificial neural network

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Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

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In today's data-driven world, the role of mathematics in bridging the gap between theory and applications is becoming increasingly vital. This abstract highlights the significance of mathematics as a powerful tool for analyzing, interpreting, and extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of data. By integrating mathematical principles with real-world applications, researchers can unlock the full potential of data-driven decision-making processes. This abstract delves into the various ways mathematics acts as a bridge connecting theoretical frameworks to practical applications. It explores the utilization of mathematical models, algorithms, and statistical techniques to uncover hidden patterns, trends, and correlations within complex datasets. Furthermore, it investigates the role of mathematics in enhancing predictive modeling, optimization, and risk assessment methodologies for improved decision-making in diverse fields such as finance, healthcare, engineering, and social sciences. The abstract also emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary collaboration between mathematicians, statisticians, computer scientists, and domain experts to tackle the challenges posed by the data-driven landscape. By fostering synergies between these disciplines, novel approaches can be developed to address complex problems and make data-driven insights accessible and actionable. Moreover, this abstract underscores the importance of robust mathematical foundations for ensuring the reliability and validity of data analysis. Rigorous mathematical frameworks not only provide a solid basis for understanding and interpreting results but also contribute to the development of innovative methodologies and techniques. In summary, this abstract advocates for the pivotal role of mathematics in bridging theory and applications in a data-driven world. By harnessing mathematical principles, researchers can unlock the transformative potential of data analysis, paving the way for evidence-based decision-making, optimized processes, and innovative solutions to the challenges of our rapidly evolving society.

Keywords: mathematics, bridging theory and applications, data-driven world, mathematical models

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Authors: Komal Rathore, Kiesha Pierre, Kyle Cogswell, Aaron Driscoll, Andres Tejada Martinez, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford, Aydin Sunol

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Modeling of Biological Wastewater Treatment Plants requires several parameters for kinetic rate expressions, thermo-physical properties, and hydrodynamic behavior. The kinetics and associated mechanisms become complex due to several biological processes taking place in wastewater treatment plants at varying times and spatial scales. A dynamic process model that incorporated the complex model for activated sludge kinetics was developed using the BioWin software platform for an Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant in Valrico, Florida. Due to the extensive number of tunable parameters, an experimental design was employed for judicious selection of the most influential parameter sets and their bounds. The model was tuned using both the influent and effluent plant data to reconcile and rectify the forecasted results from the BioWin Model. Amount of mixed liquor suspended solids in the oxidation ditch, aeration rates and recycle rates were adjusted accordingly. The experimental analysis and plant SCADA data were used to predict influent wastewater rates and composition profiles as a function of time for extended periods. The lumped dynamic model development process was coupled with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of the key units such as oxidation ditches in the plant. Several CFD models that incorporate the nitrification-denitrification kinetics, as well as, hydrodynamics was developed and being tested using ANSYS Fluent software platform. These realistic and verified models developed using BioWin and ANSYS were used to plan beforehand the operating policies and control strategies for the biological wastewater plant accordingly that further allows regulatory compliance at minimum operational cost. These models, with a little bit of tuning, can be used for other biological wastewater treatment plants as well. The BioWin model mimics the existing performance of the Valrico Plant which allowed the operators and engineers to predict effluent behavior and take control actions to meet the discharge limits of the plant. Also, with the help of this model, we were able to find out the key kinetic and stoichiometric parameters which are significantly more important for modeling of biological wastewater treatment plants. One of the other important findings from this model were the effects of mixed liquor suspended solids and recycle ratios on the effluent concentration of various parameters such as total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, etc. The ANSYS model allowed the abstraction of information such as the formation of dead zones increases through the length of the oxidation ditches as compared to near the aerators. These profiles were also very useful in studying the behavior of mixing patterns, effect of aerator speed, and use of baffles which in turn helps in optimizing the plant performance.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, flow-sheet simulation, kinetic modeling, process dynamics

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Authors: Li-Ching Lin, Yu-Tzu Dai

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Recurrent foot ulcers or foot amputation have a major impact on patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), medical professionals, and society. A critical procedure for foot care is foot self-monitoring. Medical professionals’ understanding of patients’ foot self-monitoring knowledge, attitude, and practice is beneficial for raising patients’ disease awareness. This study investigated these and related factors among patients with DM through a descriptive study of the correlations. A scale for measuring the foot self-monitoring knowledge, attitude, and practice of patients with DM was used. Purposive sampling was adopted, and 100 samples were collected from the respondents’ self-reports or from interviews. The statistical methods employed were an independent-sample t-test, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson correlation coefficient, and multivariate regression analysis. The findings were as follows: the respondents scored an average of 12.97 on foot self-monitoring knowledge, and the correct answer rate was 68.26%. The respondents performed relatively lower in foot health screenings and recording, and awareness of neuropathy in the foot. The respondents held a positive attitude toward self-monitoring their feet and a negative attitude toward having others check the soles of their feet. The respondents scored an average of 12.64 on foot self-monitoring practice. Their scores were lower in their frequency of self-monitoring their feet, recording their self-monitoring results, checking their pedal pulse, and examining if their soles were red immediately after taking off their shoes. Significant positive correlations were observed among foot self-monitoring knowledge, attitude, and practice. The correlation coefficient between self-monitoring knowledge and self-monitoring practice was 0.20, and that between self-monitoring attitude and self-monitoring practice was 0.44. Stepwise regression analysis revealed that the main predictive factors of the foot self-monitoring practice in patients with DM were foot self-monitoring attitude, prior experience in foot care, and an educational attainment of college or higher. These factors predicted 33% of the variance. This study concludes that patients with DM lacked foot self-monitoring practice and advises that the patients’ self-monitoring abilities be evaluated first, including whether patients have poor eyesight, difficulties in bending forward due to obesity, and people who can assist them in self-monitoring. In addition, patient education should emphasize self-monitoring knowledge and practice, such as perceptions regarding the symptoms of foot neurovascular lesions, pulse monitoring methods, and new foot self-monitoring equipment. By doing so, new or recurring ulcers may be discovered in their early stages.

Keywords: diabetic foot, foot self-monitoring attitude, foot self-monitoring knowledge, foot self-monitoring practice

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Authors: Aleksandr S. Demin, Anastasiia V. Ivanova

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Purpose: The current economy tends to increase the influence of digital technologies and diminish the human role in management. However, it is impossible to deny that a person still leads a business with its own set of values and priorities. The article presented aims to incorporate the peculiarities of the national culture and the characteristics of the supply chain using the quantitative values of the national culture obtained by the scholars of comparative management (Hofstede, House, and others). Design/Methodology/Approach: The conducted research is based on the secondary data in the field of cross-country comparison achieved by Prof. Hofstede and received in the GLOBE project. The data mentioned are used to design different aspects of the supply chain both on the cross-functional and inter-organizational levels. The connection between a range of principles in general (roles assignment, customer service prioritization, coordination of supply chain partners) and in comparative management (acknowledgment of the national peculiarities of the country in which the company operates) is shown over economic and mathematical models, mainly linear programming models. Findings: The combination of the team management wheel concept, the business processes of the global supply chain, and the national culture characteristics let a transnational corporation to form a supply chain crew balanced in costs, functions, and personality. To elaborate on an effective customer service policy and logistics strategy in goods and services distribution in the country under review, two approaches are offered. The first approach relies exceptionally on the customer’s interest in the place of operation, while the second one takes into account the position of the transnational corporation and its previous experience in order to accord both organizational and national cultures. The effect of integration practice on the achievement of a specific supply chain goal in a specific location is advised to assess via types of correlation (positive, negative, non) and the value of national culture indices. Research Limitations: The models developed are intended to be used by transnational companies and business forms located in several nationally different areas. Some of the inputs to illustrate the application of the methods offered are simulated. That is why the numerical measurements should be used with caution. Practical Implications: The research can be of great interest for the supply chain managers who are responsible for the engineering of global supply chains in a transnational corporation and the further activities in doing business on the international area. As well, the methods, tools, and approaches suggested can be used by top managers searching for new ways of competitiveness and can be suitable for all staff members who are keen on the national culture traits topic. Originality/Value: The elaborated methods of decision-making with regard to the national environment suggest the mathematical and economic base to find a comprehensive solution.

Keywords: logistics integration, logistics services, multinational corporation, national culture, team management, service policy, supply chain management

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Authors: L. Guevara, Glória L. S., Corea E. E, A. Ramírez-Zamora M., Salinas-Martinez J. A., Angeles-Hernandez J. C.

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Mathematical models are useful for identifying the characteristics of sheep lactation curves to develop and implement improved strategies. However, the accuracy of these models is influenced by factors such as the recording regime, mainly the intervals between test day records (TDR). The current study aimed to evaluate the effect of different TDR intervals on the goodness of fit of the Wood model (WM) applied to dairy sheep lactations. A total of 4,494 weekly TDRs from 156 lactations of dairy crossbred sheep were analyzed. Three new databases were generated from the original weekly TDR data (7D), comprising intervals of 14(14D), 21(21D), and 28(28D) days. The parameters of WM were estimated using the “minpack.lm” package in the R software. The shape of the lactation curve (typical and atypical) was defined based on the WM parameters. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the mean square of prediction error (MSPE), Root of MSPE (RMSPE), Akaike´s Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian´s Information Criterion (BIC), and the coefficient of correlation (r) between the actual and estimated total milk yield (TMY). WM showed an adequate estimate of TMY regardless of the TDR interval (P=0.21) and shape of the lactation curve (P=0.42). However, we found higher values of r for typical curves compared to atypical curves (0.9vs.0.74), with the highest values for the 28D interval (r=0.95). In the same way, we observed an overestimated peak yield (0.92vs.6.6 l) and underestimated time of peak yield (21.5vs.1.46) in atypical curves. The best values of RMSPE were observed for the 28D interval in both lactation curve shapes. The significant lowest values of AIC (P=0.001) and BIC (P=0.001) were shown by the 7D interval for typical and atypical curves. These results represent the first approach to define the adequate interval to record the regime of dairy sheep in Latin America and showed a better fitting for the Wood model using a 7D interval. However, it is possible to obtain good estimates of TMY using a 28D interval, which reduces the sampling frequency and would save additional costs to dairy sheep producers.

Keywords: gamma incomplete, ewes, shape curves, modeling

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Authors: Le Kang

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On the research question of 'how to achieve USR', this contribution reflects the concept of university social responsibility, identify three achievement models of USR as the society - diversified model, the university-cooperation model, the government - compound model, also conduct a case study to explore characteristics of Chinese achievement model of USR. The contribution concludes with discussion of how the university, government and society balance demands and roles, make necessarily strategic adjustment and innovative approach to repair the shortcomings of each achievement model.

Keywords: modern university, USR, achievement model, compound model

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Authors: Colin O’Hare, Zili Zho, Thomas Sneddon

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The Australian superannuation system has received high praise for its participation rates and level of funding in retirement yet it is only 25 years old. In recent years, with increasing longevity and persistent lower rates of investment return, how adequate will the funds accumulated through a superannuation system be? In this paper we take Australia as a case study and build a stochastic model of accumulation and decummulation of funds and determine the expected number of years a fund may last an individual in retirement.

Keywords: component, mortality, stochastic models, superannuation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Chia Yu Chen, Shu Fen Wu, Chen-Fuh Lam, I-Ling Tsai, Shu Jiuan Chen, Yen Ling Liu

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Aim: It remains undetermined that whether increased work stress may affect the job satisfaction and career loyalty among nursing staffs in the operating room. The long-term goal of this study is to lengthen the professional life of operating room nurses by attenuating the work stress and enhancing their contentment in work. Method: This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study performed in a metropolitan teaching hospital in the southern Taiwan between May 2017 to July 2017. A structured self-administered questionnaire, modified from the Occupational Stress Indicator-2 (OSI-2) and Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) manual was collected from the operating room nurses. Chi-square test was used to analyze the categorical data and Pearson correlation was used to analyze the association between two numerical datasets (SPSS version 20.0). Results: The response rate was 80% (80/100) and a total of 73 (73%) completed forms were eventually proceeded for analysis. The average scores for work stress and job satisfaction of the operating room nurses were 145.96±32.91 and 47.38±6.07, respectively. The correlation coefficients of work stress versus job satisfaction and organizational identity were (r=-0.338, p=0.003 and r=-0.354, p=0.002), respectively. There were more nurses who took rotating shift quitted works from the operating room than those who took only dayshift (2＝5.176, p<0.05). Nurses who reported of having lower job satisfaction were associated with significantly higher turnover intention (t=3.714, p< 0.01). Following multivariate regression analysis, rotating shift and low job satisfaction were identified as the two independent predictors of intention to quit from working in the operating room. Conclusion: Our study clearly demonstrates that increased work stress significantly attenuates job satisfaction and organizational identity. Rotating shift is associated with higher work stress, lower job satisfaction, and higher turnover intention, which is consistent with the previous surveys carried out in the department of medical technology. Therefore, improvement of working quality in the operating rooms is essential to increase the retain intention of the well-trained nursing staffs. Further investigation into types of work shifts and other strategies of attenuating stress in workplace is currently undertaken in order to improve the job satisfaction and to decrease turnover intention in the operating room.

Keywords: rotating shift, work stress, job satisfaction, turnover intention

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Jan Kantelberg

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Due to the fugacity of markets and the reduction of product lifecycles, manufacturing companies from high-wage countries are nowadays faced with the challenge to place more innovative products within even shorter development time on the market. At the same time, volatile customer requirements have to be satisfied in order to successfully differentiate from market competitors. One potential approach to address the explained challenges is provided by agile values and principles. These agile values and principles already proofed their success within software development projects in the form of management frameworks like Scrum or concrete procedure models such as Extreme Programming or Crystal Clear. Those models lead to significant improvements regarding quality, costs and development time and are therefore used within most software development projects. Motivated by the success within the software industry, manufacturing companies have tried to transfer agile mechanisms of action to the development of hardware products ever since. Though first empirical studies show similar effects in the agile development of hardware products, no comprehensive procedure model for the design of development iterations has been developed for hardware development yet due to different constraints of the domains. For this reason, this paper focusses on the design of agile product development processes by transferring mechanisms of action used in agile software development towards product development. This is conducted by decomposing the individual systems 'product development' and 'agile software development' into relevant elements and symbiotically composing the elements of both systems in respect of the design of agile product development processes afterwards. In a first step, existing product development processes are described following existing approaches of the system theory. By analyzing existing case studies from industrial companies as well as academic approaches, characteristic objectives, activities and artefacts are identified within a target-, action- and object-system. In partial model two, mechanisms of action are derived from existing procedure models of agile software development. These mechanisms of action are classified in a superior strategy level, in a system level comprising characteristic, domain-independent activities and their cause-effect relationships as well as in an activity-based element level. Within partial model three, the influence of the identified agile mechanism of action towards the characteristic system elements of product development processes is analyzed. For this reason, target-, action- and object-system of the product development are compared with the strategy-, system- and element-level of agile mechanism of action by using the graph theory. Furthermore, the necessity of existence of activities within iteration can be determined by defining activity-specific degrees of freedom. Based on this analysis, agile product development processes are designed in form of different types of iterations within a last step. By defining iteration-differentiating characteristics and their interdependencies, a logic for the configuration of activities, their form of execution as well as relevant artefacts for the specific iteration is developed. Furthermore, characteristic types of iteration for the agile product development are identified.

Keywords: activity-based process model, agile mechanisms of action, agile product development, degrees of freedom

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Wei Xu, Abdo S. Haidar, Jianxin Gao

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Prosthetic socket is a component that connects the residual limb of an amputee with an artificial prosthesis. It is widely recognized as the most critical component that determines the comfort of a patient when wearing the prosthesis in his/her daily activities. Through the socket, the body weight and its associated dynamic load are distributed and transmitted to the prosthesis during walking, running or climbing. In order to achieve a good-fit socket for an individual amputee, it is essential to obtain the biomechanical properties of the residual limb. In current clinical practices, this is achieved by a touch-and-feel approach which is highly subjective. Although there have been significant advancements in prosthetic technologies such as microprocessor controlled knee and ankle joints in the last decade, the progress in designing a comfortable socket has been rather limited. This means that the current process of socket design is still very time-consuming, and highly dependent on the expertise of the prosthetist. Supported by the state-of-the-art sensor technologies and numerical simulations, a new socket design system is being developed to help prosthetists achieve rapid design of comfortable sockets for above knee amputees. This paper reports the research work related to establishing biomechanical models for socket design. Through numerical simulation using finite element method, comprehensive relationships between pressure on residual limb and socket geometry were established. This allowed local topological adjustment for the socket so as to optimize the pressure distributions across the residual limb. When the full body weight of a patient is exerted on the residual limb, high pressures and shear forces between the residual limb and the socket occur. During numerical simulations, various hyperplastic models, namely Ogden, Yeoh and Mooney-Rivlin, were used, and their effectiveness in representing the biomechanical properties of soft tissues of the residual limb was evaluated. This also involved reverse engineering, which resulted in an optimal representative model under compression test. To validate the simulation results, a range of silicone models were fabricated. They were tested by an indentation device which yielded the force-displacement relationships. Comparisons of results obtained from FEA simulations and experimental tests showed that the Ogden model did not fit well the soft tissue material indentation data, while the Yeoh model gave the best representation of the soft tissue mechanical behavior under indentation. Compared with hyperplastic model, the result showed that elastic model also had significant errors. In addition, normal and shear stress distributions on the surface of the soft tissue model were obtained. The effect of friction in compression testing and the influence of soft tissue stiffness and testing boundary conditions were also analyzed. All these have contributed to the overall goal of designing a good-fit socket for individual above knee amputees.

Keywords: above knee amputee, finite element simulation, hyperplastic model, prosthetic socket

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Sladjana Popovic

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The concept of vertical space urbanization, defined in English as "air rights development," can be considered a mechanism for the development of public spaces in urban areas of high density. A chronological overview of the transformation of space within the vertical projection of the existing traffic infrastructure that penetrates through the central areas of a city is given in this paper through the analysis of two illustrative case studies: more advanced and recent - "Plot 13" in Boston, and less well-known European example of structures erected above highways throughout Italy - the "Pavesi auto grill" chain. The backbone of this analysis is the examination of the possibility of yielding air rights within the vertical projection of public structures in the two examples by considering the factors that would enable its potential application in capitals in Southeastern Europe. The cession of air rights in the Southeastern Europe region, as a phenomenon, has not been a recognized practice in urban planning. In a formal sense, legal and physical feasibility can be seen to some extent in local models of structures built above protected historical heritage (i.e., archaeological sites); however, the mechanisms of the legal process of assigning the right to use and develop air rights above public structures is not a recognized concept. The goal of the analysis is to shed light on the influence of institutional participants in the implementation of innovative solutions for vertical urbanization, as well as strategic planning mechanisms in public-private partnership models that would enable the implementation of the concept in the region. The main question is whether the manipulation of the vertical projection of space could provide for innovative urban solutions that overcome the deficit and excessive use of the available construction land, particularly above the dominant public spaces and traffic infrastructure that penetrate central parts of a city. Conclusions reflect upon vertical urbanization that can bridge the spatial separation of the city, reduce noise pollution and contribute to more efficient urban planning along main transportation corridors.

Keywords: air rights development, innovative urbanism, public-private partnership, transport infrastructure, vertical urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Semachew M. Kassa, Africa M Geremew, Tezera F. Azmatch, Nandyala Darga Kumar

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Frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are developed based on past landslide failure points to identify the landslide susceptibility mapping because landslides can seriously harm both the environment and society. However, it is still difficult to select the most efficient method and correctly identify the main driving factors for particular regions. In this study, we used fourteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) and five soft computing algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict the landslide susceptibility at 12.5 m spatial scale. The performance of the RF (F1-score: 0.88, AUC: 0.94), ANN (F1-score: 0.85, AUC: 0.92), and SVM (F1-score: 0.82, AUC: 0.86) methods was significantly better than the LR (F1-score: 0.75, AUC: 0.76) and NB (F1-score: 0.73, AUC: 0.75) method, according to the classification results based on inventory landslide points. The findings also showed that around 35% of the study region was made up of places with high and very high landslide risk (susceptibility greater than 0.5). The very high-risk locations were primarily found in the western and southeastern regions, and all five models showed good agreement and similar geographic distribution patterns in landslide susceptibility. The towns with the highest landslide risk include Amhara Saint Town's western part, the Northern part, and St. Gebreal Church villages, with mean susceptibility values greater than 0.5. However, rainfall, distance to road, and slope were typically among the top leading factors for most villages. The primary contributing factors to landslide vulnerability were slightly varied for the five models. Decision-makers and policy planners can use the information from our study to make informed decisions and establish policies. It also suggests that various places should take different safeguards to reduce or prevent serious damage from landslide events.

Keywords: artificial neural network, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, naïve Bayes, random forest, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Apurva Saxena, Sunita Gond

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Demand of computation, data storage in large amount are rapidly increases day by day. Cloud computing technology fulfill the demand of today’s computation but this will lead to high power consumption in cloud data centers. Initiative for Green IT try to reduce power consumption and its adverse environmental impacts. Paper also focus on various green computing techniques, proposed models and efficient way to make cloud greener.

Keywords: virtualization, cloud computing, green computing, data center

Procedia PDF Downloads 539

Authors: J. Niyitegeka, G. Nshimirimana, A. Silverstein, J. Odhiambo, Y. Lin, T. Nkurunziza, R. Riviello, S. Rulisa, P. Banguti, H. Magge, M. Macharia, J. P. Dushime, R. Habimana, B. Hedt-Gauthier

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In low-resource settings, women needing an emergency cesarean section experiences various delays in both reaching and receiving care that is often linked to poor neonatal outcomes. In this study, we quantified different measures of delays and assessed the association between these delays and neonatal outcomes at three rural district hospitals in Rwanda. This retrospective study included 441 neonates and their mothers who underwent emergency cesarean sections in 2015 at Butaro, Kirehe and Rwinkwavu District Hospitals. Four possible delays were measured: Time from start of labor to district hospital admission, travel time from a health center to the district hospital, time from admission to surgical incision, and time from the decision for the emergency cesarean section to surgical incision. Neonatal outcomes were categorized as unfavorable (APGAR < 7 or death) and favorable (APGAR ≥ 7). We assessed the relationship between each type of delay and neonatal outcomes using multivariate logistic regression. In our study, 38.7% (108 out of 279) of neonates’ mothers labored for 12 to 24 hours before hospital admission and 44.7% (159 of 356) of mothers were transferred from health centers that required 30 to 60 minutes of travel time to reach the district hospital. 48.1% (178 of 370) of caesarean sections started within five hours after admission and 85.2% (288 of 338) started more than thirty minutes after the decision for the emergency cesarean section was made. Neonatal outcomes were significantly worse among mothers with more than 90 minutes of travel time from the health center to the district hospital compared to health centers attached to the hospital (OR = 5.12, p = 0.02). Neonatal outcomes were also significantly different depending on decision to incision intervals; neonates with cesarean deliveries starting more than thirty minutes after decision had better outcomes than those started immediately (OR = 0.32, p = 0.04). Interventions that decrease barriers to access to maternal health care services can improve neonatal outcome after emergency cesarean section. Triaging could explain the inverse relationship between time from decision to incision and neonatal outcome; this must be studied more in the future.

Keywords: Africa, emergency obstetric care, rural health delivery, maternal and child health

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Asma Rebaya, Kaouther Gasmi, Imen Amari, Salem Hasnaoui

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Over these last years, applications such as telecommunications, signal processing, digital communication with advanced features (Multi-antenna, equalization..) witness a rapid evaluation accompanied with an increase of user exigencies in terms of latency, the power of computation… To satisfy these requirements, the use of hardware/software systems is a common solution; where hardware is composed of multi-cores and software is represented by models of computation, synchronous data flow (SDF) graph for instance. Otherwise, the most of the embedded system designers utilize Simulink for modeling. The issue is how to simplify the c code generation, for a multi-cores platform, of an application modeled by Simulink. To overcome this problem, we propose a workflow allowing an automatic transformation from the Simulink model to the SDF graph and providing an efficient schedule permitting to optimize the number of cores and to minimize latency. This workflow goes from a Simulink application and a hardware architecture described by IP.XACT language. Based on the synchronous and hierarchical behavior of both models, the Simulink block diagram is automatically transformed into an SDF graph. Once this process is successfully achieved, the scheduler calculates the optimal cores’ number needful by minimizing the maximum density of the whole application. Then, a core is chosen to execute a specific graph task in a specific order and, subsequently, a compatible C code is generated. In order to perform this proposal, we extend Preesm, a rapid prototyping tool, to take the Simulink model as entry input and to support the optimal schedule. Afterward, we compared our results to this tool results, using a simple illustrative application. The comparison shows that our results strictly dominate the Preesm results in terms of number of cores and latency. In fact, if Preesm needs m processors and latency L, our workflow need processors and latency L'< L.

Keywords: hardware/software system, latency, modeling, multi-cores platform, scheduler, SDF graph, Simulink model, workflow

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Jui-Teng Liao

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The selected-response (SR) format has been commonly adopted to assess academic reading in both formal and informal testing (i.e., standardized assessment and classroom assessment) because of its strengths in content validity, construct validity, as well as scoring objectivity and efficiency. When developing a second language (L2) reading test, researchers indicate that the longer the test (e.g., more test items) is, the higher reliability and validity the test is likely to produce. However, previous studies have not provided specific guidelines regarding the optimal length of a test or the most suitable number of test items or reading passages. Additionally, reading tests often include different question types (e.g., factual, vocabulary, inferential) that require varying degrees of reading comprehension and cognitive processes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of question types on the number of items in relation to the score reliability of L2 reading tests. Given the popularity of the SR question format and its impact on assessment results on teaching and learning, it is necessary to investigate the degree to which such a question format can reliably measure learners’ L2 reading comprehension. The present study, therefore, adopted the generalizability (G) theory to investigate the score reliability of the SR format in L2 reading tests focusing on how many test items a reading test should include. Specifically, this study aimed to investigate the interaction between question types and the number of items, providing insights into the appropriate item count for different types of questions. G theory is a comprehensive statistical framework used for estimating the score reliability of tests and validating their results. Data were collected from 108 English as a second language student who completed an English reading test comprising factual, vocabulary, and inferential questions in the SR format. The computer program mGENOVA was utilized to analyze the data using multivariate designs (i.e., scenarios). Based on the results of G theory analyses, the findings indicated that the number of test items had a critical impact on the score reliability of an L2 reading test. Furthermore, the findings revealed that different types of reading questions required varying numbers of test items for reliable assessment of learners’ L2 reading proficiency. Further implications for teaching practice and classroom-based assessments are discussed.

Keywords: second language reading assessment, validity and reliability, Generalizability theory, Academic reading, Question format

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Bandar A. Alkhayyal

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Modern supply chains are typically linear, transforming virgin raw materials into products for end consumers, who then discard them after use to landfills or incinerators. Nowadays, there are major efforts underway to create a circular economy to reduce non-renewable resource use and waste. One important aspect of these efforts is the development of Green Supply Chain (GSC) systems which enables a reverse flow of used products from consumers back to manufacturers, where they can be refurbished or remanufactured, to both economic and environmental benefit. This paper develops novel multi-objective optimization models to inform GSC system design at multiple levels: (1) strategic planning of facility location and transportation logistics; (2) tactical planning of optimal pricing; and (3) policy planning to account for potential valuation of GSC emissions. First, physical linear programming was applied to evaluate GSC facility placement by determining the quantities of end-of-life products for transport from candidate collection centers to remanufacturing facilities while satisfying cost and capacity criteria. Second, disassembly and remanufacturing processes have received little attention in industrial engineering and process cost modeling literature. The increasing scale of remanufacturing operations, worth nearly $50 billion annually in the United States alone, have made GSC pricing an important subject of research. A non-linear physical programming model for optimization of pricing policy for remanufactured products that maximizes total profit and minimizes product recovery costs were examined and solved. Finally, a deterministic equilibrium model was used to determine the effects of internalizing a cost of GSC greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into optimization models. Changes in optimal facility use, transportation logistics, and pricing/profit margins were all investigated against a variable cost of carbon, using case study system created based on actual data from sites in the Boston area. As carbon costs increase, the optimal GSC system undergoes several distinct shifts in topology as it seeks new cost-minimal configurations. A comprehensive study of quantitative evaluation and performance of the model has been done using orthogonal arrays. Results were compared to top-down estimates from economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) models, to contrast remanufacturing GHG emission quantities with those from original equipment manufacturing operations. Introducing a carbon cost of $40/t CO2e increases modeled remanufacturing costs by 2.7% but also increases original equipment costs by 2.3%. The assembled work advances the theoretical modeling of optimal GSC systems and presents a rare case study of remanufactured appliances.

Keywords: circular economy, extended producer responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, industrial ecology, low carbon logistics, green supply chains

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 146