Search results for: generalized estimating equations

Authors: Joo-Heon Lee, Ho-Won Jang, Hyung-Won Cho, Tae-Woong Kim

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Drought is a recurrent climatic feature that occurs in virtually every climatic zone around the world. Korea experiences the drought almost every year at the regional scale mainly during in the winter and spring seasons. Moreover, extremely severe droughts at a national scale also occurred at a frequency of six to seven years. Various drought indices had developed as tools to quantitatively monitor different types of droughts and are utilized in the field of drought analysis. Since drought is closely related with climatological and topographic characteristics of the drought prone areas, the basins where droughts are frequently occurred need separate drought preparedness and contingency plans. In this study, an analysis using statistical methods was carried out for the historical droughts occurred in the five major river basins in Korea so that drought characteristics can be quantitatively investigated. It was also aimed to provide information with which differentiated and customized drought preparedness plans can be established based on the basin level analysis results. Conventional methods which quantifies drought execute an evaluation by applying a various drought indices. However, the evaluation results for same drought event are different according to different analysis technique. Especially, evaluation of drought event differs depend on how we view the severity or duration of drought in the evaluation process. Therefore, it was intended to draw a drought history for the most severely affected five major river basins of Korea by investigating a magnitude of drought that can simultaneously consider severity, duration, and the damaged areas by applying drought run theory with the use of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) that can efficiently quantifies meteorological drought. Further, quantitative analysis for the historical extreme drought at various viewpoints such as average severity, duration, and magnitude of drought was attempted. At the same time, it was intended to quantitatively analyze the historical drought events by estimating the return period by derived SDF (severity-duration-frequency) curve for the five major river basins through parametric regional drought frequency analysis. Analysis results showed that the extremely severe drought years were in the years of 1962, 1988, 1994, and 2014 in the Han River basin. While, the extreme droughts were occurred in 1982 and 1988 in the Nakdong river basin, 1994 in the Geumg basin, 1988 and 1994 in Youngsan river basin, 1988, 1994, 1995, and 2000 in the Seomjin river basin. While, the extremely severe drought years at national level in the Korean Peninsula were occurred in 1988 and 1994. The most damaged drought were in 1981~1982 and 1994~1995 which lasted for longer than two years. The return period of the most severe drought at each river basin was turned out to be at a frequency of 50~100 years.

Keywords: drought magnitude, regional frequency analysis, SPI, SDF(severity-duration-frequency) curve

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Authors: Palak Patel

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Mumbai is one of the largest cities of the country with a population of 12.44 million over 437 Sq.km, and it is known as financial hub of India. In early 20th century, with the expansion of industrialization and growth of port, a huge demand for housing was created. In response to this, government enacted rent controls. Over a period of time, due to rent controls, the existing rental housing stock has deteriorated. Therefore, in last 25 years, government has been focusing on redevelopment of these rental buildings, also called ‘Cessed buildings’, in order to provide better standard of living to the tenants and also, to supply new housing units in the market. In India, developers are the main players in the housing market as they are the supplier of maximum dwelling units in the market. Hence, government attempts are inclined toward facilitating developers for the cessed building redevelopment projects by incentivizing them through making special provisions in the development control regulations. This research focuses on the entire process of redevelopment by the developers and issues faced by the related stakeholders in the same to reduce the stress on housing. It also highlights the loopholes in the current system and inefficient functioning of the process. The research was carried out by interviewing various developers, tenants and landlords in the island city who have already gone through redevelopment. From the case studies, it is very evident that redevelopment is undoubtedly a huge profit making business. In some cases, developers make profit of almost double the amount of the investment. But yet, satisfactory results are not seen on ground. It clearly indicates that there are some issues faced by developers which have not been addressed. Some of these issues include cumbersome legal procedures, negotiations with landlords and tenants, congestion and narrow roads, small size of the plots, informal practicing of ‘Pagdi system’ and financial viability of the project. This research recommends the up gradation of the existing cessed buildings by sharing the repairing and maintenance cost between landlords and tenants and also, income levels of tenants can be traced and housing vouchers or incentives can be provided to those who actual need it so that landlord does not have to subsidize the tenants. For redevelopment, the current interventions are generalized in nature as it does not take on ground issues into the consideration. There is need to identify local issues and give area specific solutions. And also, government should play a role of mediator to ensure all the stakeholders are satisfied and project gets completed on time.

Keywords: cessed buildings, developers, government’s interventions, redevelopment, rent controls, tenants

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Authors: Rachel Cherner

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Introduction: The current study investigates several user characteristics that may predict the adoption of digital mental health supports. The extent to which individual characteristics predict preferences for functional elements of computer-mediated social support (CMSS) platforms and mental health (MH) apps is relatively unstudied. Aims: The present study seeks to illuminate the relationship between broad user characteristics and perceived attraction to CMSS platforms and MH apps. Methods: Participants (n=353) were recruited using convenience sampling methods (i.e., digital flyers, email distribution, and online survey forums). The sample was 68% male, and 32% female, with a mean age of 29. Participant racial and ethnic breakdown was 75% White, 7%, 5% Asian, and 5% Black or African American. Participants were asked to complete a 25-minute self-report questionnaire that included empirically validated measures assessing a battery of characteristics (i.e., subjective levels of anxiety/depression via PHQ-9 (Patient Health Questionnaire 9-item) and GAD-7 (Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item); attachment style via MAQ (Measure of Attachment Qualities); personality types via TIPI (The 10-Item Personality Inventory); growth mindset and mental health-seeking attitudes via GM (Growth Mindset Scale) and MHSAS (Mental Help Seeking Attitudes Scale)) and subsequent attitudes toward CMSS platforms and MH apps. Results: A stepwise linear regression was used to test if user characteristics significantly predicted attitudes towards key features of CMSS platforms and MH apps. The overall regression was statistically significant (R² =.20, F(1,344)=14.49, p<.000). Conclusion: This original study examines the clinical and sociocultural factors influencing decisions to use CMSS platforms and MH apps. Findings provide valuable insight for increasing adoption and engagement with digital mental health support. Fostering a growth mindset may be a method of increasing participant/patient engagement. In addition, CMSS platforms and MH apps may empower under-resourced and minority groups to gain basic access to mental health support. We do not assume this final model contains the best predictors of use; this is merely a preliminary step toward understanding the psychology and attitudes of CMSS platform/MH app users.

Keywords: computer-mediated social support platforms, digital mental health, growth mindset, health-seeking attitudes, mental health apps, user characteristics

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Authors: Nishant Shrivastava, D. K. Sehgal

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In Finite Element Technique nodal stresses are calculated through displacement as nodes. In this process, the displacement calculated at nodes is sufficiently good enough but stresses calculated at nodes are not sufficiently accurate. Therefore, the accuracy in the stress computation in FEM models based on the displacement technique is obviously matter of concern for computational time in shape optimization of engineering problems. In the present work same is focused to find out unique points within the element as well as the boundary of the element so, that good accuracy in stress computation can be achieved. Generally, major optimal stress points are located in domain of the element some points have been also located at boundary of the element where stresses are fairly accurate as compared to nodal values. Then, it is subsequently concluded that there is an existence of unique points within the element, where stresses have higher accuracy than other points in the elements. Therefore, it is main aim is to evolve a generalized procedure for the determination of the optimal stress location inside the element as well as at the boundaries of the element and verify the same with results from numerical experimentation. The results of quadratic 9 noded serendipity elements are presented and the location of distinct optimal stress points is determined inside the element, as well as at the boundaries. The theoretical results indicate various optimal stress locations are in local coordinates at origin and at a distance of 0.577 in both directions from origin. Also, at the boundaries optimal stress locations are at the midpoints of the element boundary and the locations are at a distance of 0.577 from the origin in both directions. The above findings were verified through experimentation and findings were authenticated. For numerical experimentation five engineering problems were identified and the numerical results of 9-noded element were compared to those obtained by using the same order of 25-noded quadratic Lagrangian elements, which are considered as standard. Then root mean square errors are plotted with respect to various locations within the elements as well as the boundaries and conclusions were drawn. After numerical verification it is noted that in a 9-noded element, origin and locations at a distance of 0.577 from origin in both directions are the best sampling points for the stresses. It was also noted that stresses calculated within line at boundary enclosed by 0.577 midpoints are also very good and the error found is very less. When sampling points move away from these points, then it causes line zone error to increase rapidly. Thus, it is established that there are unique points at boundary of element where stresses are accurate, which can be utilized in solving various engineering problems and are also useful in shape optimizations.

Keywords: finite elements, Lagrangian, optimal stress location, serendipity

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Authors: Salima Tabti, Chaima Maouche, Tinhinene Louaileche, Amel Djedouani, Ismail Warad

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Novel Schiff base ligand HL has been synthesized by condensation of aromatic amine and DHA. It was characterized by UV-Vis, FT-IR, SM, NMR (1H, 13C) and also by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The crystal structure shows that compound crystallized in a triclinic system in P-1 space group and with a two unit per cell (Z = 2).The asymmetric unit, contains one independent molecules, the conformation is determined by an intermolecular N-H…O hydrogen bond with an S(6) ring motif. The molecule have an (E) conformation about the C=N bond. The dihedral angles between the phenyl and pyran ring planes is 89.37 (1), the two plans are approximately perpendicular. The catecholase activity of is situ copper complexes of this ligand has been investigated against catechol. The progress of the oxidation reactions was closely monitored over time following the strong peak of catechol using UV-Vis. Oxidation rates were determined from the initial slope of absorbance. time plots, then analyzed by Michaelis-Menten equations. Catechol oxidation reactions were realized using different concentrations of copper acetate and ligand (L/Cu: 1/1, 1/2, 2/1). The results show that all complexes were able to catalyze the oxidation of catechol. Acetate complexes have the highest activity. Catalysis is a branch of chemical kinetics that, more generally, studies the influence of all physical or chemical factors determining reaction rates. It solves a lot of problems in the chemistry reaction process, especially for a green, economic and less polluting chemistry. For this reason, the search for new catalysts for known organic reactions, occupies a very advanced place in the themes proposed by the chemists.

Keywords: dehydroacetic acid, catechol, copper, catecholase activity, x-ray

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar, A. K. Ghosh

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The paper presents the modeling of linear and nonlinear longitudinal aerodynamics using real flight data of Hansa-3 aircraft gathered at low and high angles of attack. The Neural-Gauss-Newton (NGN) method has been applied to model the linear and nonlinear longitudinal dynamics and estimate parameters from flight data. Unsteady aerodynamics due to flow separation at high angles of attack near stall has been included in the aerodynamic model using Kirchhoff’s quasi-steady stall model. NGN method is an algorithm that utilizes Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Gauss-Newton optimization to estimate the parameters and it does not require any a priori postulation of mathematical model or solving of equations of motion. NGN method was validated on real flight data generated at moderate angles of attack before application to the data at high angles of attack. The estimates obtained from compatible flight data using NGN method were validated by comparing with wind tunnel values and the maximum likelihood estimates. Validation was also carried out by comparing the response of measured motion variables with the response generated by using estimates a different control input. Next, NGN method was applied to real flight data generated by executing a well-designed quasi-steady stall maneuver. The results obtained in terms of stall characteristics and aerodynamic parameters were encouraging and reasonably accurate to establish NGN as a method for modeling nonlinear aerodynamics from real flight data at high angles of attack.

Keywords: parameter estimation, NGN method, linear and nonlinear, aerodynamic modeling

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Authors: Masoud Mohammadpour, Blair Carlson, Radovan Kovacevic

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The quality of laser welded-brazed (LWB) joints were strongly dependent on the main process parameters, therefore the effect of laser power (3.2–4 kW), welding speed (60–80 mm/s) and wire feed rate (70–90 mm/s) on mechanical strength and surface roughness were investigated in this study. The comprehensive optimization process by means of response surface methodology (RSM) and desirability function was used for multi-criteria optimization. The experiments were planned based on Box– Behnken design implementing linear and quadratic polynomial equations for predicting the desired output properties. Finally, validation experiments were conducted on an optimized process condition which exhibited good agreement between the predicted and experimental results. AlSi3Mn1 was selected as the filler material for joining aluminum alloy 6022 and hot-dip galvanized steel in coach peel configuration. The high scanning speed could control the thickness of IMC as thin as 5 µm. The thermal simulations of joining process were conducted by the Finite Element Method (FEM), and results were validated through experimental data. The Fe/Al interfacial thermal history evidenced that the duration of critical temperature range (700–900 °C) in this high scanning speed process was less than 1 s. This short interaction time leads to the formation of reaction-control IMC layer instead of diffusion-control mechanisms.

Keywords: laser welding-brazing, finite element, response surface methodology (RSM), multi-response optimization, cross-beam laser

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Authors: Iftekhar Hassan, Sayedil Morsalin, Easir A Khan

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Accidents involving fire occur frequently in recent times and their causes showing a great deal of variety which require intervention methods and risk assessment strategies are unique in each case. On September 4, 2020, a fire and explosion occurred in a confined space caused by a methane gas leak from an underground pipeline in Baitus Salat Jame mosque during Night (Esha) prayer in Narayanganj District, Bangladesh that killed 34 people. In this research, this incident is simulated using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software to analyze and understand the nature of the accident and associated consequences. FDS is an advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) system of fire-driven fluid flow which solves numerically a large eddy simulation form of the Navier–Stokes’s equations for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal radiation, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. This study focuses on understanding the nature of the fire and consequence evaluation due to thermal radiation caused by vapor cloud explosion. An evacuation modeling was constructed to visualize the effect of evacuation time and fractional effective dose (FED) for different types of agents. The results were presented by 3D animation, sliced pictures and graphical representation to understand fire hazards caused by thermal radiation or smoke due to vapor cloud explosion. This study will help to design and develop appropriate respond strategy for preventing similar accidents.

Keywords: consequence modeling, fire and explosion, fire dynamics simulation (FDS), thermal radiation

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Authors: Elizabeta Sivevska, Sunchica Petrovska, Vaska Antevska, Lidija Todorovska, Sanja Manchevska, Beti Dejanova, Ivanka Karagjozova, Jasmina Pluncevic Gligoroska

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Introduction: Body composition plays an important role in the selection of young soccer players and it is associated with their successful performance. The most commonly used model of body composition divides the body into two compartments: fat components and fat-free mass (muscular and bone components). The aims of the study were to determine the body composition parameters of young male soccer players and to show the differences in age groups. Material and methods: A sample of 52 young male soccer players, with an age span from 9 to 14 years were divided into two groups according to the age (group 1 aged 9 to 12 years and group 2 aged 12 to 14 years). Anthropometric measurements were taken according to the method of Mateigka. The following measurements were made: body weight, body height, circumferences (arm, forearm, thigh and calf), diameters (elbow, knee, wrist, ankle) and skinfold thickness (biceps, triceps, thigh, leg, chest, abdomen). The measurements were used in Mateigka’s equations. Results: Body mass components were analyzed as absolute values (in kilograms) and as percentage values: the muscular component (MC kg and MC%), the bone component (BCkg and BC%) and the body fat (BFkg and BF%). The group up to 12 years showed the following mean values of the analyzed parameters: MM=21.5kg; MM%=46.3%; BC=8.1kg; BC%=19.1%; BF= 6.3kg; BF%= 15.7%. The second group aged 12-14 year had mean values of body composition parameters as follows: MM=25.6 kg; MM%=48.2%; BC = 11.4 kg; BC%=21.6%; BF= 8.5 kg; BF%= 14. 7%. Conclusions: The young soccer players aged 12 up to 14 years who are in the pre-pubertal phase of growth and development had higher bone component (p<0.05) compared to younger players. There is no significant difference in muscular and fat body component between the two groups of young soccer players.

Keywords: body composition, young soccer players, body fat, fat-free mass

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Authors: Hamed Kalhori, Lin Ye

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In this study, an inverse method was developed to reconstruct the magnitude and duration of impact forces exerted to a rectangular carbon fibre-epoxy composite honeycomb sandwich panel. The dynamic signals captured by Piezoelectric (PZT) sensors installed on the panel remotely from the impact locations were utilized to reconstruct the impact force generated by an instrumented hammer through an extended deconvolution approach. Two discretized forms of convolution integral are considered; the traditional one with an explicit transfer function and the modified one without an explicit transfer function. Deconvolution, usually applied to reconstruct the time history (e.g. magnitude) of a stochastic force at a defined location, is extended to identify both the location and magnitude of the impact force among a number of potential impact locations. It is assumed that a number of impact forces are simultaneously exerted to all potential locations, but the magnitude of all forces except one is zero, implicating that the impact occurs only at one location. The extended deconvolution is then applied to determine the magnitude as well as location (among the potential ones), incorporating the linear superposition of responses resulted from impact at each potential location. The problem can be categorized into under-determined (the number of sensors is less than that of impact locations), even-determined (the number of sensors equals that of impact locations), or over-determined (the number of sensors is greater than that of impact locations) cases. For an under-determined case, it comprises three potential impact locations and one PZT sensor for the rectangular carbon fibre-epoxy composite honeycomb sandwich panel. Assessments are conducted to evaluate the factors affecting the precision of the reconstructed force. Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (TSVD) and the Tikhonov regularization are independently chosen to regularize the problem to find the most suitable method for this system. The selection of optimal value of the regularization parameter is investigated through L-curve and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) methods. In addition, the effect of different width of signal windows on the reconstructed force is examined. It is observed that the impact force generated by the instrumented impact hammer is sensitive to the impact locations of the structure, having a shape from a simple half-sine to a complicated one. The accuracy of the reconstructed impact force is evaluated using the correlation co-efficient between the reconstructed force and the actual one. Based on this criterion, it is concluded that the forces reconstructed by using the extended deconvolution without an explicit transfer function together with Tikhonov regularization match well with the actual forces in terms of magnitude and duration.

Keywords: honeycomb composite panel, deconvolution, impact localization, force reconstruction

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Authors: Gyula I. Tóth, Shaho Abdalla

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Even though numerical simulations indeed have a significant precursory/supportive role in exploring the disordered phase displaying no long-range order in pattern formation models, studying the stability properties of this phase and determining the order of the ordered-disordered phase transition in these models necessitate an analytical description of the disordered phase. First, we will present the results of a comprehensive statistical analysis of a large number (1,000-10,000) of numerical simulations in the Swift-Hohenberg model, where the bulk disordered (or amorphous) phase is stable. We will show that the average free energy density (over configurations) converges, while the variance of the energy density vanishes with increasing system size in numerical simulations, which suggest that the disordered phase is a thermodynamic phase (i.e., its properties are independent of the configuration in the macroscopic limit). Furthermore, the structural analysis of this phase in the Fourier space suggests that the phase can be modeled by a colored isotropic Gaussian noise, where any instant of the noise describes a possible configuration. Based on these results, we developed the general mathematical framework of finding a pool of solutions to partial differential equations in the sense of continuous probability measure, which we will present briefly. Applying the general idea to the Swift-Hohenberg model we show, that the amorphous phase can be found, and its properties can be determined analytically. As the general mathematical framework is not restricted to continuum theories, we hope that the proposed methodology will open a new chapter in studying disordered phases.

Keywords: fundamental theory, mathematical physics, continuum models, analytical description

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago

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It is currently proven that both extremes of temperature are associated with increased mortality and that air pollution is associated with temperature. This relationship is complex, and in countries with important seasonal variations in weather such as Belgium, some effects can appear as non-significant when the analysis is done over the entire year. We, therefore, analyzed the effect of short-term outdoor air pollution exposure on cardiovascular mortality during the warmer and colder months separately. We used daily cardiovascular deaths from acute cardiovascular diagnostics according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10: I20-I24, I44-I49, I50, I60-I66) during the period 2008-2013. The environmental data were population-weighted concentrations of particulates with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM₁₀) and less than 2.5 µm (PM₂.₅) (daily average), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (daily maximum of the hourly average) and ozone (O₃) (daily maximum of the 8-hour running mean). A Generalized linear model was applied adjusting for the confounding effect of season, temperature, dew point temperature, the day of the week, public holidays and the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risks (RR) were calculated for an increase of one interquartile range (IQR) of the air pollutant (μg/m³). These were presented for the four hottest months (June, July, August, September) and coldest months (November, December, January, February) in Belgium. We applied both individual lag model and unconstrained distributed lag model methods. The cumulative effect of a four-day exposure (day of exposure and three consecutive days) was calculated from the unconstrained distributed lag model. The IQR for PM₁₀, PM₂.₅, NO₂, and O₃ were respectively 8.2, 6.9, 12.9 and 25.5 µg/m³ during warm months and 18.8, 17.6, 18.4 and 27.8 µg/m³ during cold months. The association with CV mortality was statistically significant for the four pollutants during warm months and only for NO₂ during cold months. During the warm months, the cumulative effect of an IQR increase of ozone for the age groups 25-64, 65-84 and 85+ was 1.066 (95%CI: 1.002-1.135), 1.041 (1.008-1.075) and 1.036 (1.013-1.058) respectively. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of NO₂ for the age group 65-84 was 1.066 (1.020-1.114) during warm months and 1.096 (1.030-1.166) during cold months. The cumulative effect of an IQR increase of PM₁₀ during warm months reached 1.046 (1.011-1.082) and 1.038 (1.015-1.063) for the age groups 65-84 and 85+ respectively. Similar results were observed for PM₂.₅. The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality is greater during warm months for lower pollutant concentrations compared to cold months. Spending more time outside during warm months increases population exposure to air pollution and can, therefore, be a confounding factor for this association. Age can also affect the length of time spent outdoors and the type of physical activity exercised. This study supports the deleterious effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CV) which varies according to season and age groups in Belgium. Public health measures should, therefore, be adapted to seasonality.

Keywords: air pollution, cardiovascular, mortality, season

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Brody R. Clark, Chaminda Gallage, John Yeaman

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Multigrade bitumen asphalt is a quality asphalt product that is not utilised in many places globally. Multigrade bitumen is believed to be less sensitive to temperature, which gives it an advantage over conventional binders. Previous testing has shown that asphalt temperature changes greatly with depth, but currently the industry standard is to nominate a single temperature for design. For detailed design of asphalt roads, perhaps asphalt layers should be divided into nominal layer depths and different modulus and fatigue equations/values should be used to reflect the temperatures of each respective layer. A collaboration of previous laboratory testing conducted on multigrade bitumen asphalt beams under a range of temperatures and loading conditions was analysed. The samples tested included 0% or 15% recycled asphalt pavement (RAP) to determine what impact the recycled material has on the fatigue life and stiffness of the pavement. This paper investigated the temperature susceptibility of multigrade bitumen asphalt pavements compared to conventional binders by combining previous testing that included conducting a sweep of fatigue tests, developing complex modulus master curves for each mix and a study on how pavement temperature changes through pavement depth. This investigation found that the final design of the pavement is greatly affected by the nominated pavement temperature and respective material properties. This paper has outlined a potential revision to the current design approach for asphalt pavements and proposes that further investigation is needed into pavement temperature and its incorporation into design.

Keywords: asphalt, complex modulus, fatigue life, flexural stiffness, four point bending, multigrade bitumen, recycled asphalt pavement

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Authors: Hamid Hanifi, Adel Azar, Alireza Booshehri

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In order to know about the capability level of R & D units in automotive industry, it is essential that organizations always compare themselves with standard level and higher than themselves so that to be improved continuously. In this research, with respect to the importance of this issue, we have tried to present an assessment model for R & D capabilities having reviewed on new products development in automotive industry of Iran. Iran Khodro Company was selected for the case study. To this purpose, first, having a review on the literature, about 200 indicators effective in R & D capabilities and new products development were extracted. Then, of these numbers, 29 indicators which were more important were selected by industry and academia experts and the questionnaire was distributed among statistical population. Statistical population was consisted of 410 individuals in Iran Khodro Company. We used the 410 questionnaires for exploratory factor analysis and then used the data of 308 questionnaires from the same population randomly for confirmatory factor analysis. The results of exploratory factor analysis led to categorization of dimensions in 9 secondary dimensions. Naming the dimensions was done according to a literature review and the professors’ opinion. Using structural equation modeling and AMOS software, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and ultimate model with 9 secondary dimensions was confirmed. Meanwhile, 9 secondary dimensions of this research are as follows: 1) Research and design capability, 2) Customer and market capability, 3) Technology capability, 4) Financial resources capability, 5) Organizational chart, 6) Intellectual capital capability, 7) NPD process capability, 8) Managerial capability and 9) Strategy capability.

Keywords: research and development, new products development, structural equations, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis

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Authors: Der Chyan Lin

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Since the early introduction by Ormondroyd and Den Hartog, vibration absorber (VA) has become one of the most commonly used vibration mitigation strategies. The strategy is most effective for a primary plant subjected to a single frequency excitation. For continuous systems, notable advances in vibration absorption in the multi-frequency system were made. However, the efficacy of the VA strategy for systems under multi-frequency excitation is not well understood. For example, for an N degrees-of-freedom (DOF) primary-absorber system, there are N 'peak' frequencies of large amplitude vibration per every new excitation frequency. In general, the usable range for vibration absorption can be greatly reduced as a result. Frequency modulated harmonic excitation is a commonly seen multi-frequency excitation example: f(t) = cos(ϖ(t)t) where ϖ(t)=ω(1+α sin⁡(δt)). It is known that f(t) has a series expansion given by the Bessel function of the first kind, which implies an infinity of forcing frequencies in the frequency modulated harmonic excitation. For an SDOF system of natural frequency ωₙ subjected to f(t), it can be shown that amplitude peaks emerge at ω₍ₚ,ₖ₎=(ωₙ ± 2kδ)/(α ∓ 1),k∈Z; i.e., there is an infinity of resonant frequencies ω₍ₚ,ₖ₎, k∈Z, making the use of VA strategy ineffective. In this work, we propose an absorber frequency placement strategy for SDOF vibration systems subjected to frequency-modulated excitation. An SDOF linear mass-spring system coupled to lateral absorber systems is used to demonstrate the ideas. Although the mechanical components are linear, the governing equations for the coupled system are nonlinear. We show using N identical absorbers, for N ≫ 1, that (a) there is a cluster of N+1 natural frequencies around every natural absorber frequency, and (b) the absorber frequencies can be moved away from the plant's resonance frequency (ω₀) as N increases. Moreover, we also show the bandwidth of the VA performance increases with N. The derivations of the clustering and bandwidth widening effect will be given, and the superiority of the proposed strategy will be demonstrated via numerical experiments.

Keywords: Bessel function, bandwidth, frequency modulated excitation, vibration absorber

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Authors: Armando Luis Vieira, Carlos Costa, Arthur Araújo

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The tourism system is viewable as a network of relationships amongst business partners where the success of each actor will ultimately be determined by the success of the whole network. Especially since the publication of Gümmesson’s (1996) ‘theory of imaginary organisations’, which suggests that organisational effectiveness largely depends on managing relationships and sharing resources and activities, relationship quality (RQ) has been increasingly recognised as a main source of value creation and competitive advantage. However, there is still ambiguity around this topic, and managers and researchers have been recurrently reporting the need to better understand and capitalise on the quality of interactions with business partners. This research aims at testing an RQ model from a relational, imaginary organisation’s approach. Two mail surveys provide the perceptions of 725 hotel representatives about their business relationships with tour operators, and 1,224 corporate client representatives about their business relationships with hotels (21.9 % and 38.8 % response rate, respectively). The analysis contributes to enhance our understanding on the linkages between RQ and its determinants, and identifies the role of their dimensions. Structural equation modelling results highlight trust as the dominant dimension, the crucial role of commitment and satisfaction, and suggest customer orientation as complementary building block. Findings also emphasise problem solving behaviour and selling orientation as the most relevant dimensions of customer orientation. The comparison of the two ‘dyads’ deepens the discussion and enriches the suggested theoretical and managerial guidelines concerning the contribution of quality relationships to business performance.

Keywords: corporate clients, destination competitiveness, hotels, relationship quality, structural equations modelling, tour operators

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Authors: Zhipeng Feng, Huanhuan Qi, Pingchuan Shen, Fenggang Zang, Yixiong Zhang

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Numerical simulations of vortex-induced vibration of a three-dimensional flexible tube under uniform turbulent flow are calculated when Reynolds number is 1.35×10⁴. In order to achieve the vortex-induced vibration, the three-dimensional unsteady, viscous, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation and LES turbulence model are solved with the finite volume approach, the tube is discretized according to the finite element theory, and its dynamic equilibrium equations are solved by the Newmark method. The fluid-tube interaction is realized by utilizing the diffusion-based smooth dynamic mesh method. Considering the vortex-induced vibration system, the variety trends of lift coefficient, drag coefficient, displacement, vertex shedding frequency, phase difference angle of tube are analyzed under different frequency ratios. The nonlinear phenomena of locked-in, phase-switch are captured successfully. Meanwhile, the limit cycle and bifurcation of lift coefficient and displacement are analyzed by using trajectory, phase portrait, and Poincaré sections. The results reveal that: when drag coefficient reaches its minimum value, the transverse amplitude reaches its maximum, and the “lock-in” begins simultaneously. In the range of lock-in, amplitude decreases gradually with increasing of frequency ratio. When lift coefficient reaches its minimum value, the phase difference undergoes a suddenly change from the “out-of-phase” to the “in-phase” mode.

Keywords: vortex induced vibration, limit cycle, LES, CFD, FEM

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Authors: Mohammad R. Kavian Nezhad, Carlos F. Lange, Brian A. Fleck

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This research presents the validation study of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the scalar dispersion emitted from rooftop sources around the buildings at the University of Alberta North Campus. The ANSYS CFX code was used to perform the numerical simulation of the wind regime and pollutant dispersion by solving the 3D steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations on a building-scale high-resolution grid. The validation study was performed in two steps. First, the CFD model performance in 24 cases (eight wind directions and three wind speeds) was evaluated by comparing the predicted flow fields with the available data from the previous measurement campaign designed at the North Campus, using the standard deviation method (SDM), while the estimated results of the numerical model showed maximum average percent errors of approximately 53% and 37% for wind incidents from the North and Northwest, respectively. Good agreement with the measurements was observed for the other six directions, with an average error of less than 30%. In the second step, the reliability of the implemented turbulence model, numerical algorithm, modeling techniques, and the grid generation scheme was further evaluated using the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) dispersion dataset. Different statistical measures, including the fractional bias (FB), the geometric mean bias (MG), and the normalized mean square error (NMSE), were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted dispersion field. Our CFD results are in very good agreement with the field measurements.

Keywords: CFD, plume dispersion, complex urban geometry, validation study, wind flow

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Authors: Tanit Daniel Jodar Vecina, Adriane Prisco Petry

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The shape of the wind velocity profile changes according to local features of terrain shape and roughness, which are parameters responsible for defining the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) profile. Air flow characteristics over and around landforms, such as hills, are of considerable importance for applications related to Wind Farm and Turbine Engineering. The air flow is accelerated on top of hills, which can represent a decisive factor for Wind Turbine placement choices. The present work focuses on the study of ABL behavior as a function of slope and surface roughness of hill-shaped landforms, using the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to build wind velocity and turbulent intensity profiles. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations are closed using the SST k-ω turbulence model; numerical results are compared to experimental data measured in wind tunnel over scale models of the hills under consideration. Eight hill models with slopes varying from 25° to 68° were tested for two types of terrain categories in 2D and 3D, and two analytical codes are used to represent the inlet velocity profiles. Numerical results for the velocity profiles show differences under 4% when compared to their respective experimental data. Turbulent intensity profiles show maximum differences around 7% when compared to experimental data; this can be explained by not being possible to insert inlet turbulent intensity profiles in the simulations. Alternatively, constant values based on the averages of the turbulent intensity at the wind tunnel inlet were used.

Keywords: Atmospheric Boundary Layer, Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD), Numerical Modeling, Wind Tunnel

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Authors: Julia Cristina Bonaldo, Christophe L. Martin, Severine Romero Baivier, Stephane Mazerat

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Alumina refractories are commonly used in steel and foundry industries. These refractories are prepared through a powder metallurgy route. They are a mixture of hard alumina particles and graphite platelets embedded into a soft carbonic matrix (binder). The powder can be cold pressed isostatically or uniaxially, depending on the application. The compact is then fired to obtain the final product. The quality of the product is governed by the microstructure of the composite and by the process parameters. The compaction behavior and the mechanical properties of the fired product depend greatly on the amount of each phase, on their morphology and on the initial microstructure. In order to better understand the link between these parameters and the macroscopic behavior, we use the Discrete Element Method (DEM) to simulate the compaction process and the fracture behavior of the fired composite. These simulations are coupled with well-designed experiments. Four mixes with various amounts of Al₂O₃ and binder were tested both experimentally and numerically. In DEM, each particle is modelled and the interactions between particles are taken into account through appropriate contact or bonding laws. Here, we model a bimodal mixture of large Al₂O₃ and small Al₂O₃ covered with a soft binder. This composite is itself mixed with graphite platelets. X-ray tomography images are used to analyze the morphologies of the different components. Large Al₂O₃ particles and graphite platelets are modelled in DEM as sets of particles bonded together. The binder is modelled as a soft shell that covers both large and small Al₂O₃ particles. When two particles with binder indent each other, they first interact through this soft shell. Once a critical indentation is reached (towards the end of compaction), hard Al₂O₃ - Al₂O₃ contacts appear. In accordance with experimental data, DEM simulations show that the amount of Al₂O₃ and the amount of binder play a major role for the compaction behavior. The graphite platelets bend and break during the compaction, also contributing to the macroscopic stress. Firing step is modeled in DEM by ascribing bonds to particles which contact each other after compaction. The fracture behavior of the compacted mixture is also simulated and compared with experimental data. Both diametrical tests (Brazilian tests) and triaxial tests are carried out. Again, the link between the amount of Al₂O₃ particles and the fracture behavior is investigated. The methodology described here can be generalized to other particulate materials that are used in the ceramic industry.

Keywords: cold compaction, composites, discrete element method, refractory materials, x-ray tomography

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Authors: Edward Nartey

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Although the boundaries of sustainable performance and growth in the field of service supply chains (SCs) have been broadened by scholars in recent years, research on the impact and promises of Industry 4.0 Destructive Technologies (IDTs) on sustainability performance under disruptive events is still scarce. To mitigate disruptions in the SC and improve efficiency by identifying areas for cost savings, organizations have resorted to investments in digitalization, automation, and control mechanisms in recent years. However, little is known about the sustainability implications for IDT adoption and controls in service SCs, especially during disruptive events. To investigate this paradox, survey data were sought from 223 public health managers across Ghana and analyzed via covariance-based structural equations modelling. The results showed that both formal and informal control have a positive and significant relationship with IDT adoption. In addition, formal control has a significant and positive relationship with environmental and economic sustainability but an insignificant relationship with social sustainability. Furthermore, informal control positively impacts economic performance but has an insignificant relationship with social and environmental sustainability. While the findings highlight the prevalence of the IDTs being initiated by Ghanaian public health institutions (PHIs), this study concludes that the installed control systems in these organizations are inadequate for promoting sustainable SC behaviors under destructive events. Thus, in crisis situations, PHIs need to redesign their control systems to facilitate IDT integration towards sustainability issues in SCs.

Keywords: industry 4.0 destructive technologies, formal control, informal control, sustainable supply chain performance, public health organizations

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Authors: V. K. Gupta, Tejeet Singh

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In many whisker reinforced composites, anisotropy may result due to material flow during processing operations such as forging, extrusion etc. The consequence of anisotropy, introduced during processing of disc material, has been investigated on the steady state creep deformations of the rotating disc. The disc material is assumed to undergo plastic deformations according to Hill’s anisotropic criterion. Steady state creep has been analyzed in a constant thickness rotating disc made of functionally graded 6061Al-SiCw (where the subscript ‘w’ stands for whisker) using Hill’s The content of reinforcement (SiCw) in the disc is assumed to decrease linearly from the inner to outer radius. The stresses and strain rates in the disc are estimated by solving the force equilibrium equation along with the constitutive equations describing multi-axial creep. The results obtained for anisotropic FGM disc have been compared with those estimated for isotropic FGM disc having the same average whisker content. The anisotropic constants, appearing in Hill’s yield criterion, have been obtained from the available experimental results. The results show that the presence of anisotropy reduces the tangential stress in the middle of the disc but near the inner and outer radii the tangential stress is higher when compared to isotropic disc. On the other hand, the steady state creep rates in the anisotropic disc are reduced significantly over the entire disc radius, with the maximum reduction observed at the inner radius. Further, in the presence of anisotropy the distribution of strain rate becomes relatively uniform over the entire disc, which may be responsible for reducing the extent of distortion in the disc.

Keywords: anisotropy, creep, functionally graded composite, rotating disc

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Authors: Ali Ashtiani, Cesar Carrasco

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Accurate determination of thermo-mechanical responses of jointed concrete pavement slabs is essential to implement an effective mechanistic design. Temperature-induced curling of concrete slabs can produce premature top-down cracking in rigid pavements. Curling of concrete slabs can result from daily temperature variation through the slab thickness. The slab curling can also result from temperature gradients due hot weather construction, drying shrinkage and creep that are permanently built into the slabs. The existence of permanent curling implies that concrete slabs are not flat at zero temperature gradient. In this case, slabs may not be in full contact with the underlying base layer when subjecting to traffic. Built-in curling can be a major factor producing loss of slab support. The magnitude of stresses induced in slabs is influenced by the stiffness of the underlying foundation layers and the contact condition along the slab-foundation interface. An approach for finite element modeling of the effect of loss of slab support due to built-in curling is presented in this paper. A series of parametric studies is carried out for a pavement system loaded with a combination of traffic and thermal loads, considering different built-in curling and different foundation rigidities. The results explain the effect of loss of support in the magnitude of stresses produced in concrete slabs. The results of parametric study can also be used to evaluate whether the governing equations that are used to idealize the behavior of jointed concrete pavements and the effect of loss of support have been accurately selected and implemented in the finite element model.

Keywords: built-in curling, finite element modeling, loss of slab support, rigid pavement

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Authors: Reda Abdel Azim

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Gas conning phenomenon considered one of the prevalent matter in oil field applications as it significantly affects the amount of produced oil, increase cost of production operation and it has a direct effect on oil reservoirs recovery efficiency as well. Therefore, evaluation of such phenomenon and study the reservoir mechanisms that may strongly affect invading gas to the producing formation is crucial. Gas conning is a result of an imbalance between two major forces controlling the oil production: gravitational and viscous forces especially in naturally fractured reservoirs where the capillary pressure forces are negligible. Once the gas invading the producing formation near the wellbore due to large producing oil rate, the oil gas contact will change and such reservoirs are prone to gas conning. Moreover, the oil volume expected to be produced requires the use of long horizontal perforated well. This work presents a numerical simulation study to predict and propose solutions to gas coning in naturally fractured oil reservoirs. The simulation work is based on discrete fractures and permeability tensors approaches. The governing equations are discretized using finite element approach and Galerkin’s least square technique (GLS) is employed to stabilize the equation solutions. The developed simulator is validated against Eclipse-100 using horizontal fractures. The matrix and fracture properties are modelled. Critical rate, breakthrough time and GOR are determined to be used in investigation of the effect of matrix and fracture properties on gas coning. Results show that fracture distribution in terms of diverse dip and azimuth has a great effect on conning occurring. In addition, fracture porosity, anisotropy ratio, and fracture aperture.

Keywords: gas conning, finite element, fractured reservoirs, multiphase

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Authors: Anny Zambrano, German Gonzalez, Yair Quintero

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The continuum damage concept is used to study the interaction between hydraulic fractures and natural fractures, the objective is representing the path and relation among this two fractures types and predict its complex behavior without the need to pre-define their direction as occurs in other finite element applications, providing results more consistent with the physical behavior of the phenomenon. The approach uses finite element simulations through Abaqus software to model damage fracturing, the fracturing process by damage propagation in a rock. The modeling the phenomenon develops in two dimensional (2D) so that the fracture will be represented by a line and the crack front by a point. It considers nonlinear constitutive behavior, finite strain, time-dependent deformation, complex boundary conditions, strain hardening and softening, and strain based damage evolution in compression and tension. The complete governing equations are provided and the method is described in detail to permit readers to replicate all results. The model is compared to models that are published and available. Comparisons are focused in five interactions between natural fractures (NF) and hydraulic fractures: Fractured arrested at NF, crossing NF with or without offset, branching at intersecting NFs, branching at end of NF and NF dilation due to shear slippage. The most significant new finding is, that is not necessary to use pre-defined addresses propagation and stress condition can be evaluated as a dominant factor in the process. This is important because it can model in a more real way the generated complex hydraulic fractures, and be a valuable tool to predict potential problems and different geometries of the fracture network in the process of fracturing due to fluid injection.

Keywords: continuum damage, hydraulic fractures, natural fractures, complex fracture network, stiffness

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Authors: Julie Ramain, Christine Mohr, Ahmad Abu-Akel

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Divergent thinking—a cognitive component of creativity—and particularly the ability to generate unique and novel ideas, has been linked to both autistic and schizotypal traits. However, to our knowledge, the concurrent effect of these trait dimensions on divergent thinking has not been investigated. Moreover, it has been suggested that creativity is associated with different types of attention and cognitive control, and consequently how information is processed in a given context. Intriguingly, consistent with the diametric model, autistic and schizotypal traits have been associated with contrasting attentional and cognitive control styles. Positive schizotypal traits have been associated with reactive cognitive control and attentional flexibility, while autistic traits have been associated with proactive cognitive control and the increased focus of attention. The current study investigated the relationship between divergent thinking, autistic and schizotypal traits and cognitive control in a non-clinical sample of 83 individuals (Males = 42%; Mean age = 22.37, SD = 2.93), sufficient to detect a medium effect size. Divergent thinking was evaluated in an adapted version of-of the Figural Torrance Test of Creative Thinking. Crucially, since we were interested in testing divergent thinking productivity across contexts, participants were asked to generate items from basic shapes in four different contexts. The variance of the proportion of unique to total responses across contexts represented a measure of context adaptability, with lower variance indicating increased context adaptability. Cognitive control was estimated with the Behavioral Proactive Index of the AX-CPT task, with higher scores representing the ability to actively maintain goal-relevant information in a sustained/anticipatory manner. Autistic and schizotypal traits were assessed with the Autism Quotient (AQ) and the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE-42). Generalized linear models revealed a 3-way interaction of autistic and positive schizotypal traits, and proactive cognitive control, associated with increased context adaptability. Specifically, the concurrent effect of autistic and positive schizotypal traits on increased context adaptability was moderated by the level of proactive control and was only significant when proactive cognitive control was high. Our study reveals that autistic and positive schizotypal traits interactively facilitate the capacity to generate unique ideas across various contexts. However, this effect depends on cognitive control mechanisms indicative of the ability to proactively maintain attention when needed. The current results point to a unique profile of divergent thinkers who have the ability to respectively tap both systematic and flexible processing modes within and across contexts. This is particularly intriguing as such combination of phenotypes has been proposed to explain the genius of Beethoven, Nash, and Newton.

Keywords: autism, schizotypy, creativity, cognitive control

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Authors: M. Ashaque Meah, Md. Fazlul Karim, M. Shah Noor, Nazmun Nahar Papri, M. Khalid Hossen, M. Ismoen

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Tsunami and inundation modelling due to far field tsunami propagation in a limited area is a very challenging numerical task because it involves many aspects such as the formation of various types of waves and the irregularities of coastal boundaries. To compute the effect of far field tsunami and extent of inland inundation due to far field tsunami along the coastal belts of west coast of Malaysia and Southern Thailand, a formulated boundary condition and a moving boundary condition are simultaneously used. In this study, a boundary fitted curvilinear grid system is used in order to incorporate the coastal and island boundaries accurately as the boundaries of the model domain are curvilinear in nature and the bending is high. The tsunami response of the event 26 December 2004 along the west open boundary of the model domain is computed to simulate the effect of far field tsunami. Based on the data of the tsunami source at the west open boundary of the model domain, a boundary condition is formulated and applied to simulate the tsunami response along the coastal and island boundaries. During the simulation process, a moving boundary condition is initiated instead of fixed vertical seaside wall. The extent of inland inundation and tsunami propagation pattern are computed. Some comparisons are carried out to test the validation of the simultaneous use of the two boundary conditions. All simulations show excellent agreement with the data of observation.

Keywords: open boundary condition, moving boundary condition, boundary-fitted curvilinear grids, far-field tsunami, shallow water equations, tsunami source, Indonesian tsunami of 2004

Procedia PDF Downloads 445