Search results for: displacement prediction

Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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This study applied traffic speed and occupancy to develop clustering models that identify different traffic conditions. Particularly, these models are based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture of Generalized Linear regression (DML) and change-point regression (CR). The model frameworks were implemented using 2015 historical traffic data aggregated at a 15-minute interval from an Interstate 295 freeway in Jacksonville, Florida. Using the deviance information criterion (DIC) to identify the appropriate number of mixture components, three traffic states were identified as free-flow, transitional, and congested condition. Results of the DML revealed that traffic occupancy is statistically significant in influencing the reduction of traffic speed in each of the identified states. Influence on the free-flow and the congested state was estimated to be higher than the transitional flow condition in both evening and morning peak periods. Estimation of the critical speed threshold using CR revealed that 47 mph and 48 mph are speed thresholds for congested and transitional traffic condition during the morning peak hours and evening peak hours, respectively. Free-flow speed thresholds for morning and evening peak hours were estimated at 64 mph and 66 mph, respectively. The proposed approaches will facilitate accurate detection and prediction of traffic congestion for developing effective countermeasures.

Keywords: traffic congestion, multistate speed distribution, traffic occupancy, Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized linear model, Bayesian change-point detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Habtamu Tkubet Ebuy

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Purpose Conventional dynamic energy simulation tools go beyond the static dimension of simplified methods by providing better and more accurate prediction of building performance. However, their ability to forecast actual performance is undermined by a low representation of human interactions. The purpose of this study is to examine the potential benefits of incorporating information on occupant diversity into occupant behavior models used to simulate building performance. The co-simulation of the stochastic behavior of the occupants substantially increases the accuracy of the simulation. Design/methodology/approach In this article, probabilistic models of the "opening and closing" behavior of the window of inhabitants have been developed in a separate multi-agent platform, SimOcc, and implemented in the building simulation, TRNSYS, in such a way that the behavior of the window with the interconnectivity can be reflected in the simulation analysis of the building. Findings The results of the study prove that the application of complex behaviors is important to research in predicting actual building performance. The results aid in the identification of the gap between reality and existing simulation methods. We hope this study and its results will serve as a guide for researchers interested in investigating occupant behavior in the future. Research limitations/implications Further case studies involving multi-user behavior for complex commercial buildings need to more understand the impact of the occupant behavior on building performance. Originality/value This study is considered as a good opportunity to achieve the national strategy by showing a suitable tool to help stakeholders in the design phase of new or retrofitted buildings to improve the performance of office buildings.

Keywords: occupant behavior, co-simulation, energy consumption, thermal comfort

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Victor Igwemezie, Ali Mehmanparast

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The correct knowledge of corrosion fatigue mechanism in marine steel is very important. This is because it enables the design, selection, and use of steels for offshore applications. It also supports realistic corrosion fatigue life prediction of marine structures. A study has been conducted to increase the understanding of corrosion fatigue mechanism in marine steels. The materials investigated are normalized and advanced S355 Thermomechanical control process (TMCP) steels commonly used in the design of offshore wind turbine support structures. The experimental study was carried out by conducting corrosion fatigue tests under conditions pertinent to offshore wind turbine operations, using the state of the art facilities. A careful microstructural study of the crack growth path was conducted using metallurgical optical microscope (OM), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (EDX). The test was conducted on three subgrades of S355 steel: S355J2+N, S355G8+M and S355G10+M and the data compared with similar studies in the literature. The result shows that the ferrite-pearlite morphology primarily controls the corrosion-fatigue crack growth path in marine steels. A corrosion fatigue mechanism which relies on the hydrogen embrittlement of the grain boundaries and pearlite phase is used to explain the crack propagation behaviour. The crack growth trend in the Paris region of the da/dN vs. ΔK curve is used to explain the dependency of the corrosion-fatigue crack growth rate on the ferrite-pearlite morphology.

Keywords: corrosion-fatigue mechanism, fatigue crack growth rate, ferritic-pearlitic steel, microstructure, phase morphology

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Wahhaj Ahmed Farooqi, Bilal Ahmad, Sandra Maritza Zambrano Bernal

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In view of structural engineering, monitoring of structural responses over time is of great importance with respect to recent developments of construction technologies. Recently, developments of advanced computing tools have enabled researcher’s better execution of structural health monitoring (SHM) and control systems. In the last decade, building information modeling (BIM) has substantially enhanced the workflow of planning and operating engineering structures. Typically, building information can be stored and exchanged via model files that are based on the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) standard. In this study a modeling approach for semantic modeling of SHM and control systems is integrated into the BIM methodology using the IFC standard. For validation of the modeling approach, a laboratory test structure, a four-story shear frame structure, is modeled using a conventional BIM software tool. An IFC schema extension is applied to describe information related to monitoring and control of a prototype SHM and control system installed on the laboratory test structure. The SHM and control system is described by a semantic model applying Unified Modeling Language (UML). Subsequently, the semantic model is mapped into the IFC schema. The test structure is composed of four aluminum slabs and plate-to-column connections are fully fixed. In the center of the top story, semi-active tuned liquid column damper (TLCD) is installed. The TLCD is used to reduce effects of structural responses in context of dynamic vibration and displacement. The wireless prototype SHM and control system is composed of wireless sensor nodes. For testing the SHM and control system, acceleration response is automatically recorded by the sensor nodes equipped with accelerometers and analyzed using embedded computing. As a result, SHM and control systems can be described within open BIM, dynamic responses and information of damages can be stored, documented, and exchanged on the formal basis of the IFC standard.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, open building information modeling, industry foundation classes, unified modeling language, semi-active tuned liquid column damper, nondestructive testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

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A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Ariadne Katsouras, Andrea Chareunsy

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The number of large hydroelectric dams in the world has increased from almost 6,000 in the 1950s to over 45,000 in 2000. Dams are often built to increase the economic development of a country. This can occur in several ways. Large dams take many years to build so the construction process employs many people for a long time and that increased production and income can flow on into other sectors of the economy. Additionally, the provision of electricity can help raise people’s living standards and if the electricity is sold to another country then the money can be used to provide other public goods for the residents of the country that own the dam. Dams are also built to control flooding and provide irrigation water. Most dams are of these types. This paper will give an overview of the environmental and economic theories of the impact of dams in different regions of the world. There is a difference in the degree of environmental and economic impacts due to the varying climates and varying social and political factors of the regions. Production of greenhouse gases from the dam’s reservoir, for instance, tends to be higher in tropical areas as opposed to Nordic environments. However, there are also common impacts due to construction of the dam itself, such as, flooding of land for the creation of the reservoir and displacement of local populations. Economically, the local population tends to benefit least from the construction of the dam. Additionally, if a foreign company owns the dam or the government subsidises the cost of electricity to businesses, then the funds from electricity production do not benefit the residents of the country the dam is built in. So, in the end, the dams can benefit a country economically, but the varying factors related to its construction and how these are dealt with, determine the level of benefit, if any, of the dam. Some of the theories or practices used to evaluate the potential value of a dam include cost-benefit analysis, environmental impacts assessments and regressions. Systems analysis is also a useful method. While these theories have value, there are also possible shortcomings. Cost-benefit analysis converts all the costs and benefits to dollar values, which can be problematic. Environmental impact assessments, likewise, can be incomplete, especially if the assessment does not include feedback effects, that is, they only consider the initial impact. Finally, regression analysis is dependent on the available data and again would not necessarily include feedbacks. Systems analysis is a method that can allow more complex modelling of the environment and the economic system. It would allow a clearer picture to emerge of the impacts and can include a long time frame.

Keywords: comparison, economics, environment, hydroelectric dams

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: C. C. Egwuonwu, N. A. A. Okereke, K. O. Chilakpu, S. O. Ohanyere

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In this study, initial soil strength indices (qu) and stress-strain characteristics, namely failure strain (ϵf), area under the stress-strain curve up to failure (Is) and stress-strain modulus between no load and failure (Es) were investigated as potential indicators for characterizing the erosion resistance of two compacted soils, namely sandy clay loam (SCL) and clay loam (CL) in some selected sites in Enugu State, Nigeria. The unconfined compressive strength (used in obtaining strength indices) and stress-strain measurements were obtained as a function of moisture content in percentage (mc %) and dry density (γd). Test were conducted over a range of 8% to 30% moisture content and 1.0 g/cm3 to 2.0 g/cm3 dry density at applied loads of 20, 40, 80, 160 and 320 kPa. Based on the results, it was found out that initial soil strength alone was not a good indicator of erosion resistance. For instance, in the comparison of exponents of mc% and γd for jet index or erosion resistance index (Ji) and the strength measurements, qu and Es agree in signs for mc%, but are opposite in signs for γd. Therefore, there is an inconsistency in exponents making it difficult to develop a relationship between the strength parameters and Ji for this data set. In contrast, the exponents of mc% and γd for Ji and ϵf and Is are opposite in signs, there is potential for an inverse relationship. The measured stress-strain characteristics, however, appeared to have potential in providing useful information on erosion resistance. The models developed for the prediction of the extent or the susceptibility of soils to erosion and subjected to sensitivity test on some selected sites achieved over 90% efficiency in their functions.

Keywords: characterization of erodibility, selected sites in Enugu state, soil strength, stress-strain indices

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Roy Y. C. Huang, J. S. Kuang, Hamdolah Behnam

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Beam-column connections play an important role in the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame (RCMRF), which is one of the most commonly used structural systems around the world. The premature failure of such connections would severely limit the seismic performance and increase the vulnerability of RCMRF. In the past decades, researchers primarily focused on investigating the structural behaviour and failure mechanisms of conventional beam-column joints, the beam width of which is either smaller than or equal to the column width, while studies in wide beam-column joints were scarce. This paper presents the preliminary experimental results of two full-scale exterior wide beam-column connections, which are mainly designed and detailed according to ACI 318-14 and ACI 352R-02, under reversed cyclic loading. The ratios of the design shear force to the nominal shear strength of these specimens are 1.0 and 1.7, respectively, so as to probe into differences of the joint shear strength between experimental results and predictions by design codes of practice. Flexural failure dominated in the specimen with ratio of 1.0 in which full-width plastic hinges were observed, while both beam hinges and post-peak joint shear failure occurred for the other specimen. No sign of premature joint shear failure was found which is inconsistent with ACI codes’ prediction. Finally, a modification of current codes of practice is provided to accurately predict the joint shear strength in wide beam-column joint.

Keywords: joint shear strength, reversed cyclic loading, seismic vulnerability, wide beam-column joints

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Wajid Rehman, Sirajul Haq, Bakhtiar Muhammad, Syed Fahad Hassan, Amin Badshah, Muhammad Waseem, Fazal Rahim, Obaid-Ur-Rahman Abid, Farzana Latif Ansari, Umer Rashid

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Five novel triorganotin (IV) compounds have been synthesized and characterized. The tin atom is penta-coordinated to assume trigonal-bipyramidal geometry. Using in silico derived parameters; the objective of our study is to design and synthesize promiscuous antibacterials potent enough to combat resistance. Among various synthesized organotin (IV) complexes, compound 5 was found as potent antibacterial agent against various bacterial strains. Further lead optimization of drug-like properties was evaluated through in silico predictions. Data mining and computational analysis were utilized to derive compound promiscuity phenomenon to avoid drug attrition rate in designing antibacterials. Xanthine oxidase and human glucose- 6-phosphatase were found as only true positive off-target hits by ChEMBL database and others utilizing similarity ensemble approach. Propensity towards a-3 receptor, human macrophage migration factor and thiazolidinedione were found as false positive off targets with E-value 1/4> 10^-4 for compound 1, 3, and 4. Further, displaying positive drug-drug interaction of compound 1 as uricosuric was validated by all databases and docked protein targets with sequence similarity and compositional matrix alignment via BLAST software. Promiscuity of the compound 5 was further confirmed by in silico binding to different antibacterial targets.

Keywords: antibacterial activity, drug promiscuity, ADMET prediction, metallo-pharmaceutical, antimicrobial resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Chi Wu, Dean Wu, Wen-Te Liu, Cheng-Yu Tsai, Shin-Mei Hsu, Yin-Tzu Lin, Ru-Yin Yang

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Background: The results of previous studies compared the benefits and risks of receiving insomnia medication. However, the effects between hypnotic drugs used and enhancement of sleep quality were still unclear. Objective: The aim of this study is to establish a prediction model for hypnotic drugs' dosage used for insomnia subjects and associated the relationship between sleep stage ratio change and drug types. Methodologies: According to American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) guideline, sleep stages were classified and transformed to hypnogram via the polysomnography (PSG) in a hospital in New Taipei City (Taiwan). The subjects with diagnosis for insomnia without receiving hypnotic drugs treatment were be set as the comparison group. Conversely, hypnotic drugs dosage within the past three months was obtained from the clinical registration for each subject. Furthermore, the collecting subjects were divided into two groups for training and testing. After training convolution neuron network (CNN) to predict types of hypnotics used and dosages are taken, the test group was used to evaluate the accuracy of classification. Results: We recruited 76 subjects in this study, who had been done PSG for transforming hypnogram from their sleep stages. The accuracy of dosages obtained from confusion matrix on the test group by CNN is 81.94%, and accuracy of hypnotic drug types used is 74.22%. Moreover, the subjects with high ratio of wake stage were correctly classified as requiring medical treatment. Conclusion: CNN with hypnogram was potentially used for adjusting the dosage of hypnotic drugs and providing subjects to pre-screening the types of hypnotic drugs taken.

Keywords: convolution neuron network, hypnotic drugs, insomnia, polysomnography

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Aung Phyo Kyaw, Kuo Chieh Chao

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Expansive soils are more complicated than normal soils, although the soil itself is not very complicated. When evaluating foundation performance on expansive soil, it is important to consider soil expansion. The primary focus of this study is on hydraulic cement and expansive soil mixtures, and the research aims to identify key parameters for controlling the swell of the expansive soil-hydraulic cement mixture. Treatment depths can be determined using hydraulic cement ratios of 4%, 8%, 12%, and 15% for treating expansive soil. To understand the effect of hydraulic cement percentages on the swelling of expansive soil-hydraulic admixture, performing the consolidation-swell test σ''ᶜˢ is crucial. This investigation primarily focuses on consolidation-swell tests σ''ᶜˢ, although the heave index Cₕ is also needed to determine total heave. The heave index can be measured using the percent swell in the specific inundation stress in both the consolidation-swell test and the constant-volume test swelling pressure. Obtaining the relationship between swelling pressure and σ''ᶜⱽ determined from the "constant volume test" is useful in predicting heave from a single oedometer test. The relationship between σ''ᶜˢ and σ''ᶜⱽ is based on experimental results of expansive soil behavior and facilitates heave prediction for each soil. In this method, the soil property "m" is used as a parameter, and common soil property tests include compaction, particle size distribution, and the Atterberg limit. The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) provided the soil sample for this study, and all laboratory testing is performed according to American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards.

Keywords: expansive soil, swelling pressure, total heave, treatment depth

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Vera Wilden, Benno Hoffmeister, Georgios Balaskas, Lukas Rauber, Burkhard Walter

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Light-weight timber frame elements represent an efficient structural solution for wooden multistory buildings. The wall elements of such buildings – which act as shear diaphragms- provide lateral stiffness and resistance to wind and seismic loads. The tendency towards multi-story structures leads to challenges regarding the prediction of stiffness, strength and ductility of the buildings. Lightweight timber frame elements are built up of several structural parts (sheeting, fasteners, frame, support and anchorages); each of them contributing to the dynamic response of the structure. This contribution describes the experimental and numerical investigation and development of enhanced lightweight timber frame buildings. These developments comprise high-performance timber frame walls with the variable arrangements of sheathing planes and dissipative anchors at the base of the timber buildings, which reduce damages to the timber structure and can be exchanged after significant earthquakes. In order to prove the performance of the developed elements in the context of a real building a full-scale two-story building core was designed and erected in the laboratory and tested experimentally for its seismic performance. The results of the tests and a comparison of the test results to the predicted behavior are presented. Observation during the test also reveals some aspects of the design and details which need to consider in the application of the timber walls in the context of the complete building.

Keywords: dissipative anchoring, full scale test, push-over-test, wood shear walls

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Orose Rugchati, Khumthong Mahawongwiriya

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Dendrobium hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul has become one of the important commercial commodities in Thailand agricultural industry worldwide, either as potted plants or as cut flowers due to the attractive color produced in flower petals. Anthocyanins are the main flower pigments and responsible for the natural attractive display of petal colors. These pigments play an important role in functionality, such as to attract animal pollinators, classification, and grading of these orchids. Dendrobium hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul has been collected from local area farm in different stage flowers (F1, F2-F5, and F6). Anthocyanins pigment were extracted from the fresh flower by solvent extraction (MeOH–TFA 99.5:0.5v/v at 4ºC) and purification with ethyl acetate. The main anthocyanins components are cyanidin, pelargonidin, and delphinidin. Pure anthocyanin contents were analysis by UV-Visible spectroscopy technique at λ max 535, 520 and 546 nm respectively. The anthocyanins contents were converted in term of monomeric anthocyanins pigment (mg/L). The anthocyanins contents of all sample were compared with standard pigments cyanidin, pelargonidin and delphinidin. From this experiment is a simple extraction and analysis anthocyanins content in different stage of flowers results shown that monomeric anthocyanins pigment contents of different stage flowers (F1, F2-F5 and F6 ): cyanidin – 3 – glucoside (mg/l) are 0.85+0.08, 24.22+0.12 and 62.12+0.6; Pelargonidin 3,5-di- glucoside(mg/l) 10.37+0.12, 31.06+0.8 and 81.58+ 0.5; Delphinidin (mg/l) 6.34+0.17, 18.98+0.56 and 49.87+0.7; and the appearance of extraction pure anthocyanins in L(a, b): 2.71(1.38, -0.48), 1.06(0.39,-0.66) and 2.64(2.71,-3.61) respectively. Dendrobium Hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul could be used as a source of anthocyanins by simple solvent extraction and stage of flowers as a guideline for the prediction amount of main anthocyanins components are cyanidin, pelargonidin, and delphinidin could be application and development in quantities, and qualities with the advantage for food pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries.

Keywords: analysis, anthocyanins contents, different stage flowers, Dendrobium Hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Tetsya Sok, Seong Jae Hong, Young Kyu Kim, Seung Woo Lee

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The temperature distribution for asphalt concrete (AC)-Concrete composite pavement is one of main influencing factor that affects to performance life of pavement. The temperature gradient in concrete slab underneath the AC layer results the critical curling stress and lead to causes de-bonding of AC-Concrete interface. These stresses, when enhanced by repetitive axial loadings, also contribute to the fatigue damage and eventual crack development within the slab. Moreover, the temperature change within concrete slab extremely causes the slab contracts and expands that significantly induces reflective cracking in AC layer. In this paper, the numerical prediction of pavement temperature was investigated using one-dimensional finite different method (FDM) in fully explicit scheme. The numerical predicted model provides a fundamental and clear understanding of heat energy balance including incoming and outgoing thermal energies in addition to dissipated heat in the system. By using the reliable meteorological data for daily air temperature, solar radiation, wind speech and variable pavement surface properties, the predicted pavement temperature profile was validated with the field measured data. Additionally, the effects of AC thickness and daily air temperature on the temperature profile in underlying concrete were also investigated. Based on obtained results, the numerical predicted temperature of AC-Concrete composite pavement using FDM provided a good accuracy compared to field measured data and thicker AC layer significantly insulates the temperature distribution in underlying concrete slab.

Keywords: asphalt concrete, finite different method (FDM), curling effect, heat transfer, solar radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Ismail Ay

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In this study, it is aimed to analyze the relations of the factors such as the learned resourcefulness, self-efficacy, self-regulation and subjective well-being which are thought to affect the needs of the university students for psychological help and to determine if the subjective well-being mediates other factors in the prediction of the needs of the university students for psychological help. The population of the study is formed of undergraduates who get education in 16 faculties in the central campus of the University of Atatürk in the spring term of 2012-2013 academic years. The sample of the study is formed of 1205 undergraduates (female=666, 55,3 %; male=539, 44,7 %; average of age =21,49; Sd=2,18) selected from the mentioned universe by convenience sampling method. “Need for Psychological Help Scale” has been developed as a part of the study to determine the needs for psychological help. “Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire” has been adapted into Turkish to determine the self-regulation skills. Apart from these, Rosenbaum’s Learned Resourcefulness Scale, General Self-Efficacy Scale and to determine subjective well-being; Satisfaction with Life Scale and Positive and Negative Affect Scale have been used within the study. SPSS 22.0 and LISREL 9.1 have been used in the analysis of the data. Pearson product-moment correlation, descriptive analysis, factor analysis and path analysis to test the research hypothesis has been used in the study. According to obtained data, the learned resourcefulness factor does not predict the subjective well-being; however, it highly predicts the self-regulation and self-efficacy factors. It has been determined that the self-regulation and self-efficacy factors predict the subjective well-being in a positive way and medium level, and subjective well-being mediates self-regulation and self-efficacy factors to predict the needs for psychological help. It was also determined that subjective well-being predicts the needs for psychological help in a negative way and fair level. All these results have been discussed in terms of the related theories and literature, and several suggestions have been made.

Keywords: need for psychological help, self-regulation, self-efficacy, learned resourcefulness, subjective well-being, Maslow, psychological needs

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Authors: Warda L. Panondi, Norihiro Izumi

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Sedimentation is a significant threat to the sustainability of reservoirs and their watershed. In the Philippines, the Pulangi watershed experienced a high sediment loss mainly due to land conversions and plantations that showed critical erosion rates beyond the tolerable limit of -10 ton/ha/yr in all of its sub-basin. From this event, the prediction of runoff volume and sediment yield is essential to examine using the country's soil conservation techniques realistically. In this research, the Pulangi watershed was modeled using the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) to predict its watershed basin's annual runoff and sediment yield. For the calibration and validation of the model, the SWAT-CUP was utilized. The model was calibrated with monthly discharge data for 1990-1993 and validated for 1994-1997. Simultaneously, the sediment yield was calibrated in 2014 and validated in 2015 because of limited observed datasets. Uncertainty analysis and calculation of efficiency indexes were accomplished through the SUFI-2 algorithm. According to the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), King-Gupta efficiency (KGE), and PBIAS, the calculation of streamflow indicates a good performance for both calibration and validation periods while the sediment yield resulted in a satisfactory performance for both calibration and validation. Therefore, this study was able to identify the most critical sub-basin and severe needs of soil conservation. Furthermore, this study will provide baseline information to prevent floods and landslides and serve as a useful reference for land-use policies and watershed management and sustainability in the Pulangi watershed.

Keywords: Pulangi watershed, sediment yield, streamflow, SWAT model

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Nilda Tri Putri, Muhammad Taufik

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Tools and agricultural machinery (Alsintan) is a tool used in agribusiness activities. Alsintan used to change the traditional farming systems generally use manual equipment into modern agriculture with mechanization. CV Nugraha Chakti Consultant make an action plan for industrial development Alsintan West Sumatra in 2012 to develop medium industries of Alsintan become a major industry of Alsintan, one of efforts made is increase the production capacity of the industry Alsintan. Production capacity for superior products as hydrotiller and threshers set each for 2.000 units per year. CV Citra Dragon as one of the medium industry alsintan in West Sumatra has a plan to relocate the existing plant to meet growing consumer demand each year. Increased production capacity and plant relocation plan has led to a change in the layout; therefore need to design the layout of the plant facility CV Citra Dragon. First step the to design of plant layout is design the layout of the production floor. The design of the production floor layout is done by applying group technology layout. The initial step is to do a machine grouping and part family using the Average Linkage Clustering (ALC) and Rank Order Clustering (ROC). Furthermore done independent work station design and layout design using the Modified Spanning Tree (MST). Alternative selection layout is done to select the best production floor layout between ALC and ROC cell grouping. Furthermore, to design the layout of warehouses, offices and other production support facilities. Activity Relationship Chart methods used to organize the placement of factory facilities has been designed. After structuring plan facilities, calculated cost manufacturing facility plant establishment. Type of layout is used on the production floor layout technology group. The production floor is composed of four cell machinery, assembly area and painting area. The total distance of the displacement of material in a single production amounted to 1120.16 m which means need 18,7minutes of transportation time for one time production. Alsintan Factory has designed a circular flow pattern with 11 facilities. The facilities were designed consisting of 10 rooms and 1 parking space. The measure of factory building is 84 m x 52 m.

Keywords: Average Linkage Clustering (ALC), Rank Order Clustering (ROC), Modified Spanning Tree (MST), Activity Relationship Chart (ARC)

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Authors: Samedin Mehmeti

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Very tens political and economic situation, in particular armed conflicts that followed at the time of the destruction of the former Yugoslavia, influenced migrations and displacement of population. Especially setting international sanctions and embargo influenced the creation of organized criminal groups. A lot of members of the former Yugoslav security apparatus in collaboration with ordinary criminal groups engaged in: smuggling of goods, petroleum and arms, sale and transport of drugs, payable murder, damage to public property, kidnappings, extortion, racketeering, etc. This tradition of criminality, of course in other forms and with other methods, has continued after conflicts and continues with a high intensity even in nowadays. One of the most delicate problems of organized crime activity is the impact on the economic sphere, where organized crime opposes and severely damages national security and economy to criminalize it in certain sectors and directions. Organized crime groups including who find Kosovo as a place to develop their criminal activities are characterized by: loyalty of many people especially through family connections and kinship in carrying out criminal activities and the existence of powerful hierarchy of leadership which in many cases include the corrupt officials of state apparatus. Groups have clear hierarchy and flexible structure of command, each member within the criminal group knows his duties concrete. According to statistics presented in police reports its notable that Kosovo has a large number of cases of organized crime, cultivation, trafficking and possession of narcotics. As already is very well known that one of the primary conditions that must be fulfilled on track toward integration in the European Union is precisely to prevent and combat organized crime. Kosovo has serious problems with prosecutorial and judicial system. But the misuse of public funds, even those coming directly from EU budget or the budget of the European Union member states, have a negative impact on this process. The economic crisis that has gripped some of the EU countries has led to the creation of an environment in which there are far fewer resources and opportunities to invest in preventing and combating organized crime within member states. This automatically reduces the level of financial support for other countries in the fight against organized crime. Kosovo as a poor country, now has less likely benefiting from the support tools that will be eventually offered by Europe set of in this area.

Keywords: police, european integration, organized crime, narcotics

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Authors: Hassan Gholibeigian, Kazem Gholibeigian

Abstract:

In this paper, our goal is determination of loading versus time in crust. For this goal, we present a computational procedure to propose a cumulative strain energy time profile which can be used to predict the approximate location and time of the next major earthquake (M > 4.5) along a specific fault, which we believe, is more accurate than many of the methods presently in use. In the coming pages, after a short review of the research works presently going on in the area of earthquake analysis and prediction, earthquake mechanisms in both the jerk and sequence earthquake direction is discussed, then our computational procedure is presented using differential equations of equilibrium which govern the nonlinear dynamic response of a system of finite elements, modified with an extra term to account for the jerk produced during the quake. We then employ Von Mises developed model for the stress strain relationship in our calculations, modified with the addition of an extra term to account for thermal effects. For calculation of the strain energy the idea of Pulsating Mantle Hypothesis (PMH) is used. This hypothesis, in brief, states that the mantle is under diurnal cyclic pulsating loads due to unbalanced gravitational attraction of the sun and the moon. A brief discussion is done on the Denali fault as a case study. The cumulative strain energy is then graphically represented versus time. At the end, based on some hypothetic earthquake data, the final results are verified.

Keywords: pulsating mantle hypothesis, inner core’s dislocation, outer core’s bulge, constitutive model, transient hydro-magneto-thermo-mechanical load, diurnal stress, jerk, fault behaviour

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Authors: Muhamad Sani Buang, Shahrul Azam Abdullah, Juri Saedon

Abstract:

There is not much effective guideline on development of design parameters selection on springback for advanced high strength steel sheet metal in U-channel process during cold forming process. This paper presents the development of predictive model for springback in U-channel process on advanced high strength steel sheet employing Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The experimental was performed on dual phase steel sheet, DP590 in U-channel forming process while design of experiment (DoE) approach was used to investigates the effects of four factors namely blank holder force (BHF), clearance (C) and punch travel (Tp) and rolling direction (R) were used as input parameters using two level values by applying Full Factorial design (24). From a statistical analysis of variant (ANOVA), result showed that blank holder force (BHF), clearance (C) and punch travel (Tp) displayed significant effect on springback of flange angle (β2) and wall opening angle (β1), while rolling direction (R) factor is insignificant. The significant parameters are optimized in order to reduce the springback behavior using Central Composite Design (CCD) in RSM and the optimum parameters were determined. A regression model for springback was developed. The effect of individual parameters and their response was also evaluated. The results obtained from optimum model are in agreement with the experimental values

Keywords: advance high strength steel, u-channel process, springback, design of experiment, optimization, response surface methodology (rsm)

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Authors: Nina Penkova, Kalin Krumov, Liliana Zashcova, Ivan Kassabov

Abstract:

The insulating glass units (IGU) are widely used in the advanced and renovated buildings in order to reduce the energy for heating and cooling. Rules for the choice of IGU to ensure energy efficiency and thermal comfort in the indoor space are well known. The existing of internal loads - gage or vacuum pressure in the hermetized gas space, requires additional attention at the design of the facades. The internal loads appear at variations of the altitude, meteorological pressure and gas temperature according to the same at the process of sealing. The gas temperature depends on the presence of coatings, coating position in the transparent multi-layer system, IGU geometry and space orientation, its fixing on the facades and varies with the climate conditions. An algorithm for modeling and numerical simulation of thermal fields and internal pressure in the gas cavity at insulating glass units as function of the meteorological conditions is developed. It includes models of the radiation heat transfer in solar and infrared wave length, indoor and outdoor convection heat transfer and free convection in the hermetized gas space, assuming the gas as compressible. The algorithm allows prediction of temperature and pressure stratification in the gas domain of the IGU at different fixing system. The models are validated by comparison of the numerical results with experimental data obtained by Hot-box testing. Numerical calculations and estimation of 3D temperature, fluid flow fields, thermal performances and internal loads at IGU in window system are implemented.

Keywords: insulating glass units, thermal loads, internal pressure, CFD analysis

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

Abstract:

Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation

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Authors: Eda Orhun

Abstract:

Purpose: This paper analyzes a target firm’s decision to voluntarily disclose information during a takeover event and the effect of such disclosures on the outcome of the takeover. Such voluntary disclosures especially in the form of earnings forecasts made around takeover events may affect shareholders’ decisions about the target firm’s value and in return takeover result. This study aims to shed light on this question. Design/methodology/approach: The paper tries to understand the role of voluntary disclosures by target firms during a takeover event in the likelihood of takeover success both theoretically and empirically. A game-theoretical model is set up to analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a target firm to inform the shareholders about its real worth. The empirical implication of model is tested by employing binary outcome models where the disclosure variable is obtained by identifying the target firms in the sample that provide positive news by issuing increasing management earnings forecasts. Findings: The model predicts that a voluntary disclosure of positive information by the target decreases the likelihood that the takeover succeeds. The empirical analysis confirms this prediction by showing that positive earnings forecasts by target firms during takeover events increase the probability of takeover failure. Overall, it is shown that information dissemination through voluntary disclosures by target firms is an important factor affecting takeover outcomes. Originality/Value: This study is the first to the author's knowledge that studies the impact of voluntary disclosures by the target firm during a takeover event on the likelihood of takeover success. The results contribute to information economics, corporate finance and M&As literatures.

Keywords: takeovers, target firm, voluntary disclosures, earnings forecasts, takeover success

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Authors: Talha A. Al-Dubai, Rashad A. Bantan, Ramadan H. Abu-Zied, Brian G. Jones, Aaid G. Al-Zubieri

Abstract:

Contemporary foraminiferal samples sediments were collected from the intertidal sabkha of Al-Kharrar Lagoon, Saudi Arabia, to study the vertical distribution of Foraminifera and, based on a modern training set, their potential to develop a predictor of former sea-level changes in the area. Based on hierarchical cluster analysis, the intertidal sabkha is divided into three vertical zones (A, B & C) represented by three foraminiferal assemblages, where agglutinated species occupied Zone A and calcareous species occupied the other two zones. In Zone A (high intertidal), Agglutinella compressa, Clavulina angularis and C. multicamerata are dominant species with a minor presence of Peneroplis planatus, Coscinospira hemprichii, Sorites orbiculus, Quinqueloculina lamarckiana, Q. seminula, Ammonia convexa and A. tepida. In contrast, in Zone B (middle intertidal) the most abundant species are P. planatus, C. hemprichii, S. orbiculus, Q. lamarckiana, Q. seminula and Q. laevigata, while Zone C (low intertidal) is characterised by C. hemprichii, Q. costata, S. orbiculus, P. planatus, A. convexa, A. tepida, Spiroloculina communis and S. costigera. A transfer function for sea-level reconstruction was developed using a modern dataset of 75 contemporary sediment samples and 99 species collected from several transects across the sabkha. The model provided an error of 0.12m, suggesting that intertidal foraminifers are able to predict the past sea-level changes with high precision in Al-Kharrar Lagoon, and thus the future prediction of those changes in the area.

Keywords: Lagoonal foraminifers, intertidal sabkha, vertical zonation, transfer function, sea level

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Authors: Shafait Hussain Ali

Abstract:

Since its outbreak in China, the Covid_19 19 disease has been caused by the corona virus SARS N coyote 2. Italy was the first Western country to be severely affected, and the first country to take drastic measures to control the disease. In start of December 2019, the sudden outbreaks of the Coronary Virus Disease was caused by a new Corona 2 virus (SARS-CO2) of acute respiratory syndrome in china city Wuhan. The World Health Organization declared the epidemic a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020,. On February 14, 2020, 49,053 laboratory-confirmed deaths and 1481 deaths have been reported worldwide. The threat of the disease has forced most of the governments to implement various control measures. Therefore it becomes necessary to analyze the Italian data very carefully, in particular to investigates and to find out the present condition and the number of infected persons in the form of positive cases, death, hospitalized or some other features of infected persons will clear in simple form. So used such a model that will clearly shows the real facts and figures and also understandable to every readable person which can get some real benefit after reading it. The model used must includes(total positive cases, current positive cases, hospitalized patients, death, recovered peoples frequency rates ) all features that explains and clear the wide range facts in very simple form and helpful to administration of that country.

Keywords: machine learning tools and techniques, rapid miner tool, Naive-Bayes algorithm, predictions

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Authors: Sikander Nawaz Khan

Abstract:

Natural disasters like flood, earthquake, cyclone, volcanic eruption and others are causing immense losses to the property and lives every year. Current status and actual loss information of natural hazards can be determined and also prediction for next probable disasters can be made using different remote sensing and mapping technologies. Global Positioning System (GPS) calculates the exact position of damage. It can also communicate with wireless sensor nodes embedded in potentially dangerous places. GPS provide precise and accurate locations and other related information like speed, track, direction and distance of target object to emergency responders. Remote Sensing facilitates to map damages without having physical contact with target area. Now with the addition of more remote sensing satellites and other advancements, early warning system is used very efficiently. Remote sensing is being used both at local and global scale. High Resolution Satellite Imagery (HRSI), airborne remote sensing and space-borne remote sensing is playing vital role in disaster management. Early on Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to collect, arrange, and map the spatial information but now it has capability to analyze spatial data. This analytical ability of GIS is the main cause of its adaption by different emergency services providers like police and ambulance service. Full potential of these so called 3S technologies cannot be used in alone. Integration of GPS and other remote sensing techniques with GIS has pointed new horizons in modeling of earth science activities. Many remote sensing cases including Asian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, Mount Mangart landslides and Pakistan-India earthquake in 2005 are described in this paper.

Keywords: disaster mitigation, GIS, GPS, remote sensing

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Authors: Lawrence Gumbe

Abstract:

Kenya Vision 2030 is the country's programme for transformation covering the period 2008 to 2030. Its objective is to help transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income, exceeding US$10000, country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030, in a clean and secure environment. Increased agricultural and production and productivity is crucial for the realization of Vision 2030. Mechanization of agriculture in order to achieve greater yields is the only way to achieve these objectives. There are contending groups and views on the strategy for agricultural mechanization. The first group are those who oppose the widespread adoption of advanced technologies (mostly internal combustion engines and tractors) in agricultural mechanization as entirely inappropriate in most situations in developing countries. This group argues that mechanically powered -agricultural mechanization often leads to displacement of labour and hence increased unemployment, and this results in a host of other socio-economic problems, amongst them, rural-urban migration, inequitable distribution of wealth and in many cases an increase in absolute poverty, balance of payments due to the need to import machinery, fuel and sometimes technical assistance to manage them. The second group comprises of those who view the use of the improved hand tools and animal powered technology as transitional step between the most rudimentary step in technological development (characterized by entire reliance on human muscle power) and the advanced technologies (characterized 'by reliance on tractors and other machinery). The third group comprises those who regard these intermediate technologies (ie. improved hand tools and draught animal technology in agriculture) as a ‘delaying’ tactic and they advocate the use of mechanical technologies as-the most appropriate. This group argues that alternatives to the mechanical technologies do not just exist as a practical matter, or, if they are available, they are inefficient and they cannot be compared to the mechanical technologies in terms of economics and productivity. The fourth group advocates a compromise between groups two and third above. This group views the improved hand tools and draught animal technology as more of an 18th century technology and the modem tractor and combine harvester as too advanced for developing countries. This group has been busy designing an ‘intermediate’, ‘appropriate’, ‘mini’, ‘micro’ tractor for use by farmers in developing countries. This paper analyses and concludes on the different agricultural mechanization strategies available to Kenya and other third world countries

Keywords: agriculture, mechanazation, transformation, industrialization

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Authors: Ahmad Idris, Bishir Kado, Murtala Umar, Armaya`u Suleiman Labo

Abstract:

Superpave is the short form of Superior Performing Asphalt Pavement and represents a basis for specifying component materials, asphalt mixture design and analysis, and pavement performance prediction. This new technology is the result of long research projects conducted by the strategic Highway Research program (SHRP) of the Federal Highway Administration. This research was aimed at examining the suitability of Aggregates found in Kano for used in Superpave design method. Aggregates samples were collected from different sources in Kano Nigeria and their Engineering properties, as they relate to the SUPERPAVE design requirements were determined. The average result of Coarse Aggregate Angularity in Kano was found to be 87% and 86% of one fractured face and two or more fractured faces respectively with a standard of 80% and 85% respectively. Fine Aggregate Angularity average result was found to be 47% with a requirement of 45% minimum. A flat and elongated particle which was found to be 10% has a maximum criterion of 10%. Sand equivalent was found to be 51% with the criteria of 45% minimum. Strength tests were also carried out, and the results reflect the requirements of the standards. The tests include Impact value test, Aggregate crushing value, and Aggregate Abrasion tests and the results are 27.5%, 26.7%, and 13%, respectively, with the maximum criteria of 30%. Specific gravity was also carried out and the result was found to have an average value of 2.52 with a criterion of 2.6 to 2.9 and Water absorption was found to be 1.41% with maximum criteria of 0.6%. From the study, the result of the tests indicated that the aggregates properties has met the requirements of Superpave design method based on the specifications of ASTMD 5821, ASTM D 4791, AASHTO T176, AASHTO T33 and BS815.

Keywords: Superpave, aggregates, asphalt mix, Kano

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Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Chi T. Cheung

Abstract:

Cooling energy consumption in the residential sector, different from shopping mall, office or commercial buildings, is significantly subject to occupant decisions where in-depth investigations are found limited. It shows that energy consumptions could be associated with housing types. Surveys have been conducted in existing Hong Kong public housings to understand the housing characteristics, apartment electricity demands, occupant’s thermal expectations, and air–conditioning usage patterns for further cooling energy-saving assessments. The aim of this study is to develop a hybrid cooling energy prediction model, which integrated by EnergyPlus (EP) and artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate cooling energy consumption in public residential sector. Sensitivity tests are conducted to find out the energy impacts with changing building parameters regarding to external wall and window material selection, window size reduction, shading extension, building orientation and apartment size control respectively. Assessments are performed to investigate the relationships between cooling demands and occupant behavior on thermal environment criteria and air-conditioning operation patterns. The results are summarized into a cooling energy calculator for layman use to enhance the cooling energy saving awareness in their own living environment. The findings can be used as a directory framework for future cooling energy evaluation in residential buildings, especially focus on the occupant behavioral air–conditioning operation and criteria of energy-saving incentives.

Keywords: artificial neural network, cooling energy, occupant behavior, residential buildings, thermal environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 163