Search results for: statistics and probability

Authors: T. Wen, Y. Liu, J. Wang, W. Zheng, T. Shao

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Along with the increasing density of urban population, solar energy potential of building facade in high-density residential areas become a question that needs to be addressed. This paper studies how the solar energy utilization potential of building facades in different locations of a residential areas changes with different building layouts and orientations in Xining, a typical city in west China which possesses large solar radiation resource. Solar energy potential of three typical building layouts of residential areas, which are parallel determinant, gable misalignment, transverse misalignment, are discussed in detail. First of all, through the data collection and statistics of Xining new residential area, the most representative building parameters are extracted, including building layout, building height, building layers, and building shape. Secondly, according to the results of building parameters extraction, a general model is established and analyzed with rhinoceros 6.0 and its own plug-in grasshopper. Finally, results of the various simulations and data analyses are presented in a visualized way. The results show that there are great differences in the solar energy potential of building facades in different locations of residential areas under three typical building layouts. Generally speaking, the solar energy potential of the west peripheral location is the largest, followed by the East peripheral location, and the middle location is the smallest. When the deflection angle is the same, the solar energy potential shows the result that the West deflection is greater than the East deflection. In addition, the optimal building azimuth range under these three typical building layouts is obtained. Within this range, the solar energy potential of the residential area can always maintain a high level. Beyond this range, the solar energy potential drops sharply. Finally, it is found that when the solar energy potential is maximum, the deflection angle is not positive south, but 5 °or 15°south by west. The results of this study can provide decision analysis basis for residential design of Xining city to improve solar energy utilization potential and provide a reference for solar energy utilization design of urban residential buildings in other similar areas.

Keywords: building facade, solar energy potential, solar radiation, urban residential area, visualization, Xining city

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Authors: Gopal Chandra Saha, Sumanta Daw

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Warm-up is an essential component for optimizing performance in various sports before a physical fitness training session. This study investigated the immediate comparative effect of Self-Myofascial Release through vibration rolling (VR), non-vibration rolling (NVR), and static stretching as a part of a warm-up treatment on the functional fitness of young adults. Functional fitness is a classification of training that prepares the body for real-life movements and activities. For the present study 20male physical education students were selected as subjects. The age of the subjects was ranged from 20-25 years. The functional fitness variables undertaken in the present study were flexibility, muscle strength, agility, static and dynamic balance of the lower extremity. Each of the three warm-up protocol was administered on consecutive days, i.e. 24 hr time gap and all tests were administered in the morning. The mean and SD were used as descriptive statistics. The significance of statistical differences among the groups was measured by applying ‘F’-test, and to find out the exact location of difference, Post Hoc Test (Least Significant Difference) was applied. It was found from the study that only flexibility showed significant difference among three types of warm-up exercise. The observed result depicted that VR has more impact on myofascial release in flexibility in comparison with NVR and stretching as a part of warm-up exercise as ‘p’ value was less than 0.05. In the present study, within the three means of warm-up exercises, vibration roller showed better mean difference in terms of NVR, and static stretching exercise on functional fitness of young physical education practitioners, although the results were found insignificant in case of muscle strength, agility, static and dynamic balance of the lower extremity. These findings suggest that sports professionals and coaches may take VR into account for designing more efficient and effective pre-performance routine for long term to improve exercise performances. VR has high potential to interpret into an on-field practical application means.

Keywords: self-myofascial release, functional fitness, foam roller, physical education

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Authors: Thimma Reddy Pothireddy, Ramesh Srikonda

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India is prone to natural disasters such as Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides frequently due to its geographical considerations. It has become a persistent phenomenon as observed in last ten decades. The recent survey indicates that about 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities with reference to Richard scale, over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone to cyclones and 68% of the area is vulnerable to drought. Climate change is likely to be perceived through the experience of extreme weather events. There is growing societal concern about climate change, given the potential impacts of associated natural hazards such as cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, landslides etc. The recent natural calamities such as Cyclone Hudhud had crossed the land at Northern cost of AP, Vishakapatanam on 12 Oct’2014 with a wind speed ranging between 175 – 200 kmph and the records show that the tidal waves were reached to the height of 14mts and above; and it alarms us to have critical focus on planning issues so as to find appropriate solutions. The existing condition is effective is in terms of institutional set up along with responsive management mechanism of disaster mitigation but considerations at settlement planning level to allow mitigation operations are not adequate. This paper deals to understand the response to climate change will possibly happen through adaptation to climate hazards and essential to work out an appropriate mechanism and disaster receptive settlement planning for responding to natural (and climate-related) calamities particularly to cyclones and floods. The statistics indicate that 40 million hectares flood prone (5% of area), and 1853 kmts of cyclone prone coastal length in India so it is essential and crucial to have appropriate physical planning considerations to improve preparedness and to operate mitigation measures effectively to minimize the loss and damage. Vijayawada capital region which is susceptible to cyclonic and floods has been studied with respect to trajectory analysis to work out risk vulnerability and to integrated disaster mitigation physical planning considerations.

Keywords: meta analysis, vulnerability index, physical planning, trajectories

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Authors: Mia Françoise

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This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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Authors: Anthony J. Kondracki, Bonzo I. Reddick, Jennifer L. Barkin

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We sought to examine the association of maternal Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), and treponema pallidum (TP) (syphilis) infections with preterm birth (PTB) (<37 weeks gestation), low birth weight (LBW) (<2500 grams) and prenatal care (PNC) attendance. This cross-sectional study was based on data drawn from the 2020 United States National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Natality File. We estimated the prevalence of all births, early/late PTBs, moderately/very LBW, and the distribution of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) according to maternal characteristics in the sample. In multivariable logistic regression models, we examined adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of PTB and LBW subcategories in the association with maternal/infant characteristics, PNC status, and maternal CT, NG, and TP infections. In separate logistic regression models, we assessed the risk of these newborn outcomes stratified by PNC status. Adjustments were made for race/ethnicity, age, education, marital status, health insurance, liveborn parity, previous preterm birth, gestational hypertension, gestational diabetes, PNC status, smoking, and infant sex. Additionally, in a sensitivity analysis, we assessed the association with early, full, and late term births and the potential impact of unmeasured confounding using the E-value. CT (1.8%) was most prevalent STI in pregnancy, followed by NG (0.3%), and TP (0.1%). Non-Hispanic Black women, 20-24 years old, with a high school education, and on Medicaid had the highest rate of STIs. Around 96.6% of women reported receiving PNC and about 60.0% initiated PNC early in pregnancy. PTB and LBW were strongly associated with NG infection (12.2% and 12.1%, respectively) and late initiation/no PNC (8.5% and 7.6%, respectively), and ≤10 prenatal visits received (13.1% and 10.3%, respectively). The odds of PTB and LBW were 2.5- to 3-foldhigher for each STI among women who received ≤10 prenatal visits than >10 visits. Adequate prenatal care utilization and timely screening and treatment of maternal STIs can substantially reduce the burden of adverse newborn outcomes.

Keywords: low birthweight, prenatal care, preterm birth, sexually transmitted infections

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Authors: Kalpana Gupta

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Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are infections that are spread primarily through sexual contact. In our daily practice, we see gonorrhea, chancroid, syphilis, and chlamydial infections that can be cured, as well as HIV, genital herpes, HPV, and hepatitis B infections that cannot be cured but can be managed with available treatments. Many people in India are infected with Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), and the figures are quite high because of a lack of awareness and communication, as well as a taboo against these diseases. Numerous taboos and associated stigma shape patients’ lives and have a significant impact on health care policies, medical research, and current issues in medical ethics. Current statistics emphasize the importance of delivering sex education to this important demographic promptly. The long-standing tradition of girls marrying very young, especially in rural areas, and often too much older men, causes a slew of STIs. Stigma and HIV have a cyclical relationship; people who experience stigma and discrimination are marginalized and made more vulnerable to HIV/STDs, while those living with HIV are more vulnerable to stigma and discrimination. As urban pressures have grown, so have slums - and they have fast become ideal breeding grounds for STDs. In developed countries, strict laws have been enacted requiring people suffering from STDs to seek immediate treatment as well as contact the health department. Unfortunately, because of the stigma associated with the disease, patients in India are reluctant to reveal the source of infection. With various schemes, India is attempting to promote sex education and awareness. For example, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare developed the National Adolescent Health Programme (also known as the Rashtriya Kishor Swasthya Karyakram) in partnership with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Whereas, National AIDS Control Organisation was set up so that every person living with HIV has access to quality care and is treated with dignity and breaking all taboos. It becomes clear that research and healthcare policies will not be effective in assisting patients with STDs unless these "nonscientific" elements are taken into account.

Keywords: sexually transmitted diseases, sexually transmitted infections, taboo, stigma, HIV/STDs, sex education and awareness, treatment, quality care, medications, healthcare policies

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Authors: Pouneh Soleimaninejadian, Chengyu Yang

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In this paper, we use data on Household Income and Expenditure survey of Statistics Centre of Iran, conducted from 2005-2014, to calculate several inequality measures and to estimate the effects of Iran’s targeted subsidy reform act on consumption and income inequality. We first calculate Gini coefficients for income and consumption in order to study the relation between the two and also the effects of subsidy reform. Results show that consumption inequality has not been always mirroring changes in income inequality. However, both Gini coefficients indicate that subsidy reform caused improvement in inequality. Then we calculate Generalized Entropy Index based on consumption and income for years before and after the Subsidy Reform Act of 2010 in order to have a closer look into the changes in internal structure of inequality after subsidy reforms. We find that the improvement in income inequality is mostly caused by the decrease in inequality of lower income individuals. At the same time consumption inequality has been decreased as a result of more equal consumption in both lower and higher income groups. Moreover, the increase in Engle coefficient after the subsidy reform shows that a bigger portion of income is allocated to consumption on food which is a sign of lower living standard in general. This increase in Engle coefficient is due to rise in inflation rate and relative increase in price of food which partially is another consequence of subsidy reform. We have conducted some experiments on effect of subsidy payments and possible effects of change on distribution pattern and amount of cash subsidy payments on income inequality. Result of the effect of cash payments on income inequality shows that it leads to a definite decrease in income inequality and had a bigger share in improvement of rural areas compared to those of urban households. We also examine the possible effect of constant payments on the increasing income inequality for years after 2011. We conclude that reduction in value of payments as a result of inflation plays an important role regardless of the fact that there may be other reasons. We finally experiment with alternative allocations of transfers while keeping the total amount of cash transfers constant or make it smaller through eliminating three higher deciles from the cash payment program, the result shows that income equality would be improved significantly.

Keywords: consumption inequality, generalized entropy index, income inequality, Irans subsidy reform

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Authors: Munawar Malik, Muntaha Ahmad, Khalil Ullah Khan

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Linguistic abilities in students with hearing impairment yet remain a concern for educationists. The emerging technological support and provisions in recent era vows to have addressed the situation and claims significant contribution in terms of linguistic repertoire. Being a descriptive and quantitative paradigm of study, the purpose of this research set forth was to assess linguistic competencies of students with hearing impairment in English language. The goals were further broken down to identify level of reading abilities in the subject population. The population involved students with HI studying at higher secondary level in Lahore. Simple random sampling technique was used to choose a sample of fifty students. A purposive curriculum-based assessment was designed in line with accelerated learning program by Punjab Government, to assess Linguistic competence among the sample. Further to it, an Informal Reading Inventory (IRI) corresponding to reading levels was also developed by researchers duly validated and piloted before the final use. Descriptive and inferential statistics were utilized to reach to the findings. Spearman’s correlation was used to find out relationship between degree of hearing loss, grade level, gender and type of amplification device. Independent sample t-test was used to compare means among groups. Major findings of the study revealed that students with hearing impairment exhibit significant deviation from the mean scores when compared in terms of grades, severity and amplification device. The study divulged that respective students with HI have yet failed to qualify an independent level of reading according to their grades as majority falls at frustration level of word recognition and passage comprehension. The poorer performance can be attributed to lower linguistic competence as it shows in the frustration levels of reading, writing and comprehension. The correlation analysis did reflect an improved performance grade wise, however scores could only correspond to frustration level and independent levels was never achieved. Reported achievements at instructional level of subject population may further to linguistic skills if practiced purposively.

Keywords: linguistic competence, hearing impairment, reading levels, educationist

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Authors: Mylena McCoggle, Shyra Wilson, Andrea Rivera, Rocio Alba-Flores

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This work introduces the use of EMGs (electromyography) from muscle sensors to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for pattern recognition to control a small unmanned aerial vehicle. The objective of this endeavor exhibits interfacing drone applications beyond manual control directly. MyoWare Muscle sensor contains three EMG electrodes (dual and single type) used to collect signals from the posterior (extensor) and anterior (flexor) forearm and the bicep. Collection of raw voltages from each sensor were connected to an Arduino Uno and a data processing algorithm was developed with the purpose of interpreting the voltage signals given when performing flexing, resting, and motion of the arm. Each sensor collected eight values over a two-second period for the duration of one minute, per assessment. During each two-second interval, the movements were alternating between a resting reference class and an active motion class, resulting in controlling the motion of the drone with left and right movements. This paper further investigated adding up to three sensors to differentiate between hand gestures to control the principal motions of the drone (left, right, up, and land). The hand gestures chosen to execute these movements were: a resting position, a thumbs up, a hand swipe right motion, and a flexing position. The MATLAB software was utilized to collect, process, and analyze the signals from the sensors. The protocol (machine learning tool) was used to classify the hand gestures. To generate the input vector to the ANN, the mean, root means squared, and standard deviation was processed for every two-second interval of the hand gestures. The neuromuscular information was then trained using an artificial neural network with one hidden layer of 10 neurons to categorize the four targets, one for each hand gesture. Once the machine learning training was completed, the resulting network interpreted the processed inputs and returned the probabilities of each class. Based on the resultant probability of the application process, once an output was greater or equal to 80% of matching a specific target class, the drone would perform the motion expected. Afterward, each movement was sent from the computer to the drone through a Wi-Fi network connection. These procedures have been successfully tested and integrated into trial flights, where the drone has responded successfully in real-time to predefined command inputs with the machine learning algorithm through the MyoWare sensor interface. The full paper will describe in detail the database of the hand gestures, the details of the ANN architecture, and confusion matrices results.

Keywords: artificial neural network, biosensors, electromyography, machine learning, MyoWare muscle sensors, Arduino

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Authors: William Marquis, Fang Dong

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There has been a growing concern in recent years over the economic and social effects of adult video gaming. It has been estimated that the number of people who played video games during the COVID-19 pandemic is close to three billion, and there is evidence that this form of entertainment is here to stay. Many people are concerned that this growing use of time could crowd out time that could be spent on alternative forms of entertainment with family, friends, sports, and other social activities that build community. For example, recent studies of children suggest that playing videogames crowds out time that could be spent on homework, watching TV, or in other social activities. Similar studies of adults have shown that video gaming is negatively associated with earnings, time spent at work, and socializing with others. The primary objective of this paper is to examine how time adults spend on video gaming could displace time they could spend working and on activities that enhance their health and well-being. We use data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to analyze the effects of time-use decisions on three measures of well-being. We pool the ATUS Well-being Module for multiple years, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2021, along with the ATUS Activity and Who files for these years. This pooled data set provides three broad measures of well-being, e.g., health, life satisfaction, and emotional well-being. Seven variants of each are used as a dependent variable in different multivariate regressions. We add to the existing literature in the following ways. First, we investigate whether the time adults spend in video gaming crowds out time spent working or in social activities that promote health and life satisfaction. Second, we investigate the relationship between adult gaming and their emotional well-being, also known as negative or positive affect, a factor that is related to depression, health, and labor market productivity. The results of this study suggest that the time adult gamers spend on video gaming has no effect on their supply of labor, a negligible effect on their time spent socializing and studying, and mixed effects on their emotional well-being, such as increasing feelings of pain and reducing feelings of happiness and stress.

Keywords: online gaming, health, social capital, emotional wellbeing

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Authors: Yasser Y. Lenis, Amy Jo Montgomery, Diego F. Carrillo-Gonzalez

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Introduction: The use of didactic instruments in different learning environments plays a pivotal role in enhancing the level of knowledge in veterinary science students. The direct instruction of basic animal reproduction concepts in students enrolled in veterinary medicine programs allows them to elucidate the biological and molecular mechanisms that perpetuate the animal species in an ecosystem. Therefore, universities must implement didactic strategies that facilitate the teaching and learning processes for students and, in turn, enrich learning environments. Objective: to evaluate the effect of the use of a didactic textbook on the level of theoretical knowledge in embryo-maternal recognition for veterinary medicine students. Methods: the participants (n=24) were divided into two experimental groups: control (Ctrl) and treatment (Treat). Both groups received 4 hours of theoretical training regarding the basic concepts in bovine embryo-maternal recognition. However, the Treat group was also exposed to a guided lecture and the activity play-to-learn from a cow reproduction didactic textbook. A pre-test and a post-test were applied to assess the prior and subsequent knowledge in the participants. Descriptive statistics were applied to identify the success rates for each of the tests. Afterwards, a repeated measures model was applied where the effect of the intervention was considered. Results: no significant difference (p>0,05) was observed in the number of right answers for groups Ctrl (54,2%±12,7) and Treat (40,8%±16,8) in the pre-test. There was no difference (p>0,05) compering the number of right answers in Ctrl pre-test (54,2%±12,7) and post-test (60,8±18,8). However, the Treat group showed a significant (p>0,05) difference in the number of right answers when comparing pre-test (40,8%±16,8) and post-test (71,7%±14,7). Finally, after the theoretical training and the didactic activity in the Treat group, an increase of 10.9% (p<0,05) in the number of right answers was found when compared with the Ctrl group. Conclusion: the use of didactic tools that include guided lectures and activities like play-to-learn from a didactic textbook enhances the level of knowledge in an animal reproduction course for veterinary medicine students.

Keywords: animal reproduction, pedagogic, level of knowledge, learning environment

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Authors: Burhan Khan

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Objective: This study aims to enhance the body of knowledge about the vulnerabilities of child waste pickers in solid waste management. The primary objective of this research is to investigate the occupational menaces and their potential harm to the health of child waste pickers. Material and Methods: The present study design is descriptive in nature and involves children aged 5 through 14, who were rummaging through garbage in the roads and streets of Aligarh city, Uttar Pradesh. The researcher adopted an empirical approach to interview 65 participants (27 boys and 38 girls) across Aligarh city, Uttar Pradesh. The majority of the participants are Muslims (76.9 %), scheduled Castes (13.8 %), and Hindus (9.2 %). Out of 65 participants, 73.8% of children were migrated within the last five years. The primary data were analysed by utilising descriptive statistics, including frequencies, cross-tabs, means, and percentages. Results: The results show that the vast majority of children (87.7%) have experienced superficial injuries or open wound at their work. More than 32% were suffering from respiratory problems such as coughing, wheezing and short of breath, close to 37% reported skin problems like allergy, irritation and bruising and 4.6% had eye problems such as pain and irritation in eyes. Nearly 78% of children lift and carry a heavy load like large garbage bags. Over 83% informed that they sort through refuse in a filthy environment such as open dumpsites, effluents, and runnels. Conclusion: This research provides pieces of evidence of how children are being tormented in the rag-picking sector. It has been observed that child rag pickers are susceptible to injuries or illnesses due to work-related risks and toxic environment. In India, there is no robust policy to address the concerns of waste pickers and laws to protect their rights. Consequently, these deprived communities of rag pickers, especially children, have become more vulnerable over time in India. Hence, this research paper calls for a quick response to the exigencies of child rag picker by developing a holistic approach that deals with education, medical care, sanitation, and nutrition for child rag pickers.

Keywords: child rag pickers, health impairments, occupational hazards, toxic environment

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Authors: Markou Vasiliki, Serdaris Panagiotis

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The consumer behavior and decision-making process of consumers is a process that is affected by the factor of uncertainty. The onslaught of the Covid 19 pandemic has changed the consumer decision-making process in many ways. This change can be seen both in the buying process (how and where they shop) but also in the types of goods and services they are looking for. In addition, due to the mainly economic uncertainty that came from this event, but also the effects on both society and the economy in general, new consumer behaviors were created. Traditional forms of shopping are no longer a primary choice, consumers have turned to digital channels such as e-commerce and social media to fulfill needs. The purpose of this particular article is to examine how much the consumer's decision-making process has been affected after the pandemic and if consumer behavior has changed. An online survey was conducted to examine the change in decision making. Essentially, the demographic factors that influence the decision-making process were examined, as well as the social and economic factors. The research is divided into two parts. The first part included a literature review of the research that has been carried out to identify the factors, and the second part where the empirical investigation was carried out using a questionnaire and was done electronically with the help of Google Forms. The questionnaire was divided into several sections. They included questions about consumer behavior, but mainly about how they make decisions today, whether those decisions have changed due to the pandemic, and whether those changes are permanent. Also, for decision-making, goods were divided into essential products, high-tech products, transactions with the state and others. Αbout 500 consumers aged between 18 and 75 participated in the research. The data was processed with both descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results showed that the consumer behavior and decision-making process has changed. Now consumers widely use the internet for shopping, consumer behaviors and consumer patterns have changed. Social and economic factors play an important role. Income, gender and other factors were found to be statistically significant. In addition, it is worth noting that the percentage who made purchases during the pandemic through the internet for the first time was remarkable and related to age. Essentially, the arrival of the pandemic caused uncertainty for individuals, mainly financial, and this affected the decision-making process. In addition, shopping through the internet is now the first choice, especially among young people, and it seems that it is about to become established.

Keywords: consumer behavior, decision making, COVID-19, Greece, behavior change

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Authors: Klaus Peter Scherer, Daniel Knöll, Constantin Rieder

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Problem and Purpose: Intelligent systems are available and helpful to support the human being decision process, especially when complex surgical eye interventions are necessary and must be performed. Normally, such a decision support system consists of a knowledge-based module, which is responsible for the real assistance power, given by an explanation and logical reasoning processes. The interview based acquisition and generation of the complex knowledge itself is very crucial, because there are different correlations between the complex parameters. So, in this project (semi)automated self-learning methods are researched and developed for an enhancement of the quality of such a decision support system. Methods: For ophthalmic data sets of real patients in a hospital, advanced data mining procedures seem to be very helpful. Especially subgroup analysis methods are developed, extended and used to analyze and find out the correlations and conditional dependencies between the structured patient data. After finding causal dependencies, a ranking must be performed for the generation of rule-based representations. For this, anonymous patient data are transformed into a special machine language format. The imported data are used as input for algorithms of conditioned probability methods to calculate the parameter distributions concerning a special given goal parameter. Results: In the field of knowledge discovery advanced methods and applications could be performed to produce operation and patient related correlations. So, new knowledge was generated by finding causal relations between the operational equipment, the medical instances and patient specific history by a dependency ranking process. After transformation in association rules logically based representations were available for the clinical experts to evaluate the new knowledge. The structured data sets take account of about 80 parameters as special characteristic features per patient. For different extended patient groups (100, 300, 500), as well one target value as well multi-target values were set for the subgroup analysis. So the newly generated hypotheses could be interpreted regarding the dependency or independency of patient number. Conclusions: The aim and the advantage of such a semi-automatically self-learning process are the extensions of the knowledge base by finding new parameter correlations. The discovered knowledge is transformed into association rules and serves as rule-based representation of the knowledge in the knowledge base. Even more, than one goal parameter of interest can be considered by the semi-automated learning process. With ranking procedures, the most strong premises and also conjunctive associated conditions can be found to conclude the interested goal parameter. So the knowledge, hidden in structured tables or lists can be extracted as rule-based representation. This is a real assistance power for the communication with the clinical experts.

Keywords: an expert system, knowledge-based support, ophthalmic decision support, self-learning methods

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Authors: Saarah Juman, Ilona Johnson, Stephen Richmond, Brett Duane, Sheelagh Rogers

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Introduction: Researchers suggest that within 50 years or less, the available supply of a range of metals will be exhausted, potentially leading to increases in resource conflict and largescale production shortages. The healthcare, dental and orthodontic sectors will undoubtedly be affected as stainless steel instruments are generally heavily relied on. Although changing orthodontic archwires are unavoidable and necessary to allow orthodontic tooth movement through the progression of an archwire sequence with fixed appliances, they are thought to be manufactured in excess of what is needed. Furthermore, orthodontic archwires require trimming extraorally to allow safe intraoral insertion, thus contributing to unnecessary waste of natural resources. Currently, there is no evidence to support the optimisation of archwire length according to orthodontic fixed appliance stage. As such, this study aims to quantify archwire excess (extraoral archwire trimmings) for different stages of orthodontic fixed appliance treatment. Methodology: This prospective, observational, quantitative study observed trimmings made extraorally against pre-treatment study models by clinicians over a 3-month period. Archwires were categorised into one of three categories (initial aligning, sequence, working/finishing arcwhires) within the orthodontic fixed appliance archwire sequence. Data collection included archwire material composition and the corresponding length and weight of excess archwire. Data was entered using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and imported into statistical software to obtain simple descriptive statistics. Results: Measurements were obtained for a total of 144 archwires. Archwire materials included nickel titanium and stainless steel. All archwires observed required extraorally trimming to allow safe intraoral insertion. The manufactured lengths of orthodontic initial aligning, sequence, and working/finishing arcwhires were at least 31%, 26%, and 39% in excess, respectively. Conclusions: Orthodontic archwires are manufactured to be excessively long at all orthodontic archwire sequence stages. To conserve natural resources, this study’s findings support the optimisation of orthodontic archwire lengths by manufacturers according to the typical stages of an orthodontic archwire sequence.

Keywords: archwire, orthodontics, sustainability, waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Fong-Zuo Lee, Jihn-Sung Lai, Yung-Bin Lin, Xiaoqin Liu, Kuo-Chun Chang, Zhi-Xian Yang, Wen-Dar Guo, Jian-Hao Hong

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In recent years, climate change is a major factor to increase rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency. The increased rainfall intensity and extreme rainfall frequency will increase the probability of flash flood with abundant sediment transport in a river basin. The floods caused by heavy rainfall may cause damages to the bridge, embankment, hydraulic works, and the other disasters. Therefore, the foundation scouring of bridge pier, embankment and spur dike caused by floods has been a severe problem in the worldwide. This severe problem has happened in many East Asian countries such as Taiwan and Japan because of these areas are suffered in typhoons, earthquakes, and flood events every year. Results from the complex interaction between fluid flow patterns caused by hydraulic works and the sediment transportation leading to the formation of river morphology, it is extremely difficult to develop a reliable and durable sensor to measure river bed degradation and bridge pier scouring. Therefore, an innovative scour monitoring sensor using vibration-based Micro-Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) was developed. This vibration-based MEMS sensor was packaged inside a stainless sphere with the proper protection of the full-filled resin, which can measure free vibration signals to detect scouring/deposition processes at the bridge pier. In addition, a friendly operational system includes rainfall runoff model, one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical model, and the applicability of sediment transport equation and local scour formulas of bridge pier are included in this research. The friendly operational system carries out the simulation results of flood events that includes the elevation changes of river bed erosion near the specified bridge pier and the erosion depth around bridge piers. In addition, the system is developed with easy operation and integrated interface, the system can supplies users to calibrate and verify numerical model and display simulation results through the interface comparing to the scour monitoring sensors. To achieve the forecast of the erosion depth of river bed and main bridge pier in the study area, the system also connects the rainfall forecast data from Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute. The results can be provided available information for the management unit of river and bridge engineering in advance.

Keywords: flash flood, river bed degradation, bridge pier scouring, a friendly operational system

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

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The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 541

Authors: Maria Christine Rizzon Cintra, Tâmara Duarte Borges, Cristina Santos Sotomaior

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Lamb’s fleece quality can be influenced by many factors, including welfare, stress, nutritional imbalance and presence of ectoparasites. The association of fleece quality and endoparasitism, until now, was not well solved. The present study was undertaken to evaluate if a fleece visual score could predict lamb parasitosis with the focus on gastrointestinal parasites. Fleece quality was scored based on a combination of cleanliness and wool cover, using a three-point scale (1-3). Score 1: fleece shows no sign of dirt or contamination, and had sufficient fleece for the breed and time of year with whole body coverage; Score 2: fleece was little damp or wet, with coat contaminated by small patches of mud or dung and some areas of fleece loose, but no shed or bald patches of no more than 10cm in diameter; Score 3: fleece filthy, very wet with coated in mud or dug, and loose fleece with shed areas of pulls with bald patches greater than 10cm, some areas may be trailing. All fleece quality scores (FQS) were assessed with lamb restrained to ensure close inspection and were done along lamb back and considered just one side of the body. To confirm the gastrointestinal parasites and animal’s anemia, faecal egg counts (FEC) and hematocrit were done for each animal. Lambs were also weighed. All these measurements were done every 15-days, beginning at 60-days until 150-days of life, using 48 animals crossed Texel x Ile de France. For statistics analysis, it was used Stratigraphic Program (4.1. version), and all significant differences between FQS, weight gain, age, hematocrit, and FEC were assessed using analysis of variance following by Duncan test, and the correlation was done by Pearson test at P<0.05. Results showed that animals scored as ‘3’ in FQS had a lower hematocrit and a higher FEC (p<0.05) than animals scored as ‘1’ (hematocrit: 26, 24, 23 and FEC 2107, 2962, 4626 respectively for 1, 2 and 3 FQS). There were correlations between FQS and FEC (r = 0.16), FQS and hematocrit (r = -0.33) an FQS and weight gain (r = -0.20) indicating that worst FQS animals (score 3) had greater gastrointestinal parasites’ infection, were more anemic and had lower weight gain than animals scored as ‘1’ or ‘2’ for FQS. Concerning the lamb´s age, animals that received score ‘3’ in FQS, maintained gastrointestinal parasites’ infection over the time (P<0.05). It was concluded that FQS could be an important indicator to be included in the selective treatment for control verminosis in lambs.

Keywords: fleece, gastrointestinal parasites, sheep, welfare

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Andres Manuel Garcia Lamparte, Rocio Losada Iglesias, Marcos BoullóN Magan, David Miranda Barros

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The biodiversity strategy of the European Union for 2030, mentions climate change as one of the key factors for biodiversity loss and considers green infrastructure as one of the solutions to this problem. In this line, the European Commission has developed a green infrastructure strategy which commits members states to consider green infrastructure in their territorial planning. This green infrastructure is aimed at granting the provision of a wide number of ecosystem services to support biodiversity and human well-being by countering the effects of climate change. Yet, there are not too many tools available to delimit green infrastructure. The available ones consider the potential of the territory to provide ecosystem services. However, these methods usually aggregate several maps of ecosystem services potential without considering possible trade-offs. This can lead to excluding areas with a high potential for providing ecosystem services which have many trade-offs with other ecosystem services. In order to tackle this problem, a methodology is proposed to consider ecosystem services trade-offs in the objective function of a simulated annealing algorithm aimed at delimiting green infrastructure multifunctional buffer areas. To this end, the provision potential maps of the regulating ecosystem services considered to delimit the multifunctional buffer areas are clustered in groups, so that ecosystem services that create trade-offs are excluded in each group. The normalized provision potential maps of the ecosystem services in each group are added to obtain a potential map per group which is normalized again. Then the potential maps for each group are combined in a raster map that shows the highest provision potential value in each cell. The combined map is then used in the objective function of the simulated annealing algorithm. The algorithm is run both using the proposed methodology and considering the ecosystem services individually. The results are analyzed with spatial statistics and landscape metrics to check the number of ecosystem services that the delimited areas produce, as well as their regularity and compactness. It has been observed that the proposed methodology increases the number of ecosystem services produced by delimited areas, improving their multifunctionality and increasing their effectiveness in preventing climate change impacts.

Keywords: ecosystem services trade-offs, green infrastructure delineation, multifunctional buffer areas, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Sayyed Mostafa Ahmadi, Neda Raeesi

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Background and Objectives: Cervical spondylosis is a common problem that affects the adult spine and is the most common cause of radiculopathy and myelopathy in older patients. Anterior discectomy and fusion is a well-known technique in degenerative cervical disc disease. However, one of the late undesirable complications is adjacent disc degeneration, which affects about 91% of patients in ten years. Many factors can be effective in causing this complication, but some are still debatable. Discovering these risk factors and eliminating them can improve the quality of life. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. All patients who underwent anterior discectomy and fusion surgery in the neurosurgery ward of Imam Khomeini Hospital between 2013 and 2016 were evaluated. Their demographic information was collected. All patients were visited and examined for radiculopathy, myelopathy, and muscular force. At the same visit, all patients were asked to have a facelift, and neck profile, as well as a neck MRI(General Tesla 3). Preoperative graphs were used to measure the diameter of the cervical canal(Pavlov ratio) and to evaluate sagittal alignment(Cobb Angle). Preoperative MRI of patients was reviewed for anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Result: In this study, 57 patients were studied. The mean age of patients was 50.63 years, and 49.1% were male. Only 3.5% of patients had anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Symptomatic ASD was observed in 26.6%. The X-rays and MRIs showed evidence of 80.7% radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent one-level surgery, 20% had symptomatic ASD, but among patients who underwent two-level surgery, the rate of ASD was 50%.In other words, the higher the number of surfaces that are operated and fused, the higher the probability of symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). The X-rays and MRIs showed 80.7% of radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent surgery at one level, 78% had radiological ASD, and this number was 92% among patients who underwent two-level surgery(P-value> 0.05). Demographic variables such as age, sex, height, weight, and BMI did not have a significant effect on the incidence of radiological ASD(P-value> 0.05), but sex and height were two influential factors on symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). Other related variables such as family history, smoking and exercise also have no significant effect(P-value> 0.05). Radiographic variables such as Pavlov ratio and sagittal alignment were also unaffected by the incidence of radiological and symptomatic ASD(P-value> 0.05). The number of surgical surfaces and the incidence of anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification before surgery also had no statistically significant effect(P-value> 0.05). In the study of the ability of the neck to move in different directions, none of these variables are statistically significant in the two groups with radiological and symptomatic ASD and the non-affected group(P-value> 0.05). Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, this disease is considered to be a multifactorial disease. The incidence of radiological ASD is much higher than symptomatic ASD (80.7% vs. 26.3%) and sex, height and number of fused surfaces are the only factors influencing the incidence of symptomatic ASD and no variable influences radiological ASD.

Keywords: risk factors, anterior neck disectomy and fusion, adjucent segment degeneration, complication

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Muhammad Asim, Mehvish Amjad

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Background: Less than half of women in South Asia (SA) use any modern contraceptive method which leads to a huge burden of unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, maternal deaths, and socioeconomic loss. Women empowerment plays a pivotal role in improving various health seeking behaviours, including contraceptive use. The objective of this study to explore the association between women's empowerment and modern contraceptive, among rich and poor segment of population in SA. Methods: We used the most recent, large-scale, demographic health survey data of five South Asian countries, namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. The outcome variable was the current use of modern contraceptive methods. The main exposure variable was a combination (interaction) of socio-economic status (SES) and women’s level of empowerment (low, medium, and high), where SES was bifurcated into poor and rich; and women empowerment was divided into three categories: decision making, attitude to violence and social independence. Moreover, overall women empowerment indicator was also created by using three dimensions of women empowerment. We applied both descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression techniques for data analyses. Results: Most of the women possessed ‘medium’ level of empowerment across South Asian Countries. The lowest attitude to violence empowerment was found in Afghanistan, and the lowest social independence empowerment was observed in Bangladesh across SA. However, Pakistani women have the lowest decision-making empowerment in the region. The lowest modern contraceptive use (22.1%) was found in Afghanistan and the highest (53.2%) in Bangladesh. The multivariate results depict that the overall measure of women empowerment does not affect modern contraceptive use among poor and rich women in most of South Asian countries. However, the decision-making empowerment plays a significant role among both poor and rich women to use modern contraceptive methods across South Asian countries. Conclusions: The effect of women’s empowerment on modern contraceptive use is not consistent across countries, and among poor and rich segment of population. Of the three dimensions of women’s empowerment, the autonomy of decision making in household affairs emerged as a stronger determinant of mCPR as compared with social independence and attitude towards violence against women.

Keywords: women empowerment, modern contraceptive use, South Asia, socio economic status

Procedia PDF Downloads 60

Authors: Ivelise M. Strozberg, Lucas O. Vale, Maria V. V. Morais

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Expansive soils are characterized by their significant volumetric variations, tending to suffer an increase of this volume when added water in their voids and a decrease of volume when this water is removed. The parameters of resistance (especially the angle of friction, cohesion and specific weight) of expansive or non-expansive soils of the same field present differences, as found in laboratory tests. What is expected is that, through this research, demonstrate that this variation directly affects the results of the calculation of factors of safety for slope stability. The expansibility due to specific clay minerals such as montmorillonites and vermiculites is the most common form of expansion of soils or rocks, causing expansion pressures. These pressures can become an aggravating problem in regions across the globe that, when not previously studied, may present high risks to the enterprise, such as cracks, fissures, movements in structures, breaking of retaining walls, drilling of wells, among others. The study provides results based on analyzes carried out in the Slide 2018 software belonging to the Rocsience group, where the software is a two-dimensional equilibrium slope stability program that calculates the factor of safety or probability of failure of certain surfaces composed of soils or rocks (or both, depending on the situation), - through the methods of: Bishop simplified, Fellenius and Janbu corrected. This research compares the factors of safety of a homogeneous earthfill dam geometry, analysed for operation and end-of-construction situations, having a height of approximately 35 meters, with a slope of 1.5: 1 in the slope downstream and 2: 1 on the upstream slope. As the water level is 32.73m high and the water table is drawn automatically by the Slide program using the finite element method for the operating situation, considering two hypotheses for the use of materials - the first with soils with characteristics of expansion and the second with soils without expansibility. For this purpose, soil samples were collected from the region of São Bento do Una - Pernambuco, Brazil and taken to the soil mechanics laboratory to characterize and determine the percentage of expansibility. There were found 2 types of soils in that area: 1 site of expansive soils (8%) and another with non- expansive ones. Based on the results found, the analysis of the values of factors of safety indicated, both upstream and downstream slopes, the highest values were obtained in the case where there is no presence of materials with expansibility resulting, for one of the situations, values of 1.353 (Fellenius), 1,295 (Janbu corrected) and 1,409 (Bishop simplified). There is a considerable drop in safety factors in cases where soils are potentially expansive, resulting in values for the same situation of 0.859 (Fellenius), 0.809 (Janbu corrected) and 0.842 (Bishop simplified), in the case of higher expansibility (8 %). This shows that the expansibility is a determinant factor in the fall of resistance of soil, determined by the factors of cohesion and angle of friction.

Keywords: dam. slope. software. swelling soil

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Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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The article analyzes the modern level of industrial production in Georgia, shows the export-import of industrial products and evaluates the results of the activities of institutions implementing industrial policy. The research showed us that the level of development of industry in the country and its export potential are quite low. The article concludes that in the modern phase of industrial development, the country should choose a model focused on technological development and maximum growth of export potential. Objectives. The aim of the research is to develop an economic policy that promotes the development of industry and to look for ways to implement it effectively. Methodologies This paper uses general and specific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, scientific abstraction, comparative and statistical methods, as well as experts’ evaluation. In-depth interviews with experts were conducted to determine quantitative and qualitative indicators; Publications of the National Statistics Office of Georgia are used to determine the regularity between analytical and statistical estimations. Also, theoretical and applied research of international organizations and scientist-economists are used. Contributions Based on the identified challenges in the area of industry, recommendations for the implementation of an active industrial policy in short and long term periods were developed. In particular: the government's priority orientation of industrial development; paying special attention to the processing industry sectors that Georgia has the potential to produce; supporting the development of scientific fields; Determination of certain benefits for those investors who invest money in industrial production; State partnership with the private sector, manifested in the fight against bureaucracy, corruption and crime, creating favorable business conditions for entrepreneurs; Coordination between education - science - production should be implemented in the country. Much attention should be paid to basic scientific research, which does not require purely commercial returns in the short term, science should become a real productive force; Special importance should be given to the creation of an environment that will support the expansion of export-oriented production; Overcoming barriers to entry into export markets.

Keywords: industry, sectoral structure of industry, exsport-import of industrial products, industrial policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Sakineh Nouri Saeidlou, Fatemeh Rezaiegoyjeloo, Parvin Ayremlou, Fariba Babaie

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Introduction: Childhood overweight and obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. Overweight and obesity in children may have severe consequences later in adolescence and adulthood. The aim of current study was to determine the prevalence trend of overweight and obesity in school-aged children from 2009 to 2011. Methods: The present study was a population-based study and conducted in three consecutive years, from 2009 to 2011. The study population included all of primary, secondary and high school children in rural and urban regions of West Azarbijan province in West-North of Iran. Body mass index (BMI), the ratio of weight to height squared [weight (kg)]/ [height (m)]2, was calculated to the nearest decimal place. Overweight and obesity were classified using CDC recommendations for age and sex: a BMI 85th–95th percentile was classified as overweight and a BMI>95th percentile was classified as obese. All statistical analyses were performed using the Excel Software. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample in different time periods. The prevalence was calculated as the ratio of number present cases to a given population number in a given subgroup at a given time. Results: Overall, 165740, 145146 and 146203 school children were assessed at 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. Prevalence of overweight in primary school children among girls were 52.83, 86.93 and 116.36 and for boys were 57.07, 53.4 and 93.55 per 1000 person in 2009, 2010 and 2011 years ,respectively. The prevalence of obesity in secondary school children for girls were 22.26, 27.75 and 28.43 and 26.52, 25.72 and 35.85 for boys per 1000 person in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, The highest prevalence of overweight was 77.58, 142.4 and 126.46 per 1000 person among primary, secondary and high school children, respectively, in 2011. The lowest prevalence of obesity was 12.52, 24.1 and 21.61 per 1000 person among primary, secondary and high school children, respectively, in 2009. Conclusion: However, the rapid increase in both obesity and overweight should have a special attention. Research on prevalence trend of overweight and obesity in children is poorly reported in Iran. So that, future studies need to follow-up on the associations between overweight and obesity with health outcomes when children develop and reach adolescence and adulthood.

Keywords: overweight, obesity, school children, prevalence trend, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Timothy Wale Olaosebikan

Abstract:

The adverse effect of the Covid-19 outbreak and lock-downs on the world economy has coursed a major disrupt in mostly all sectors. The educational sector is not exempted from this disruption as it is one of the most affected sectors in the world. Similarly, most developing countries are still struggling to adopt/ adapt with the 21st-century advancement of technology, which includes e-learning/ e-education. Furthermore, one is left to wonder of the possibility of these countries surviving this disruption on their various educational systems that may no longer be business as usual after the Covid Pandemic era. This study evaluates the e-learning process of educational systems, especially in developing countries. The collection of data for the study was effected through the use of questionnaires with sampling drawn by stratified random sampling. The data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The findings of the study show that about 30% of developing countries have fully adopted the e-learning system, about 45% of these countries are still struggling to upgrade while about 25% of these countries are yet to adopt the e-learning system of education. The study concludes that the sudden closure of educational institutions around the world during the Covid Pandemic period should facilitate a teaching pedagogy of e-learning and virtual delivery of courses and programmes in these developing countries. If this approach can be fully adopted, schools might have to grapple with the initial teething problems, given the sudden transition just in order to preserve the welfare of students. While progress should be made to transit as the case may be, lectures and seminars can be delivered through the web conferencing site-zoom. Interestingly, this can be done on a mobile phone. The demands of this approach would equally allow lecturers to make major changes to their work habits, uploading their teaching materials online, and get to grips with what online lecturing entails. Consequently, the study recommends that leaders of developing countries, regulatory authorities, and heads of educational institutions must adopt e-learning into their educational system. Also, e-learning should be adopted into the educational curriculum of students, especially from elementary school up to tertiary level. Total compliance to the e-learning system must be ensured on the part of both the institutions, stake holders, lecturers, tutors, and students. Finally, collaborations with developed countries and effective funding for e-learning integration must form the heart of their cardinal mission.

Keywords: Covid pandemic, developing countries, educational system, e-learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Marine Kobalava

Abstract:

The article analyzes the level of Georgia's tourism potential usage during the pandemic. The conclusion is drawnthat Georgia, as a tourism brand, is in a significant crisis at this stage, revenues from this sector have been substantially reduced, communication with potential customers is interrupted, no international marketing and PR communication strategies have been developed for the post-pandemic period. In order to rehabilitate the tourism industry of Georgia, it is considered vital to take measures using international marketing and PR communication strategies adjusted to the needs of the sectorthat will improve the use of tourism potential and stimulate the development of the sector. The goal of the research is to identify the factors hindering the use of tourism potential in the direction of international marketing and PR communication strategies in the post-pandemic period and to develop recommendations on ways to solve them. Research methods. The paper uses various theoretical and methodological tools of research, including Bibliographic research has been conducted on the main research issues; Analysis, synthesis, induction, and other methods are used to select and group data, identify similarities and differences, and identify trends; Endogenous and exogenous factors affecting the field of tourism have been studied by means of SWOT and PESTEL analyzes. A comparison model is used to analyze the strategy documents. Primary accounting materials are obtained from the National Statistics Office and the relevant ministries. Based on the results of the research, the directions of correct positioning of tourism products and marketing communication in the post-pandemic period have been developed. It is substantiated that a short-term international marketing strategy should include: probable goals of communication, maintaining a position on a potential traveler's “radar,” focusing communication on key motivating factors (gastronomy, winemaking, folklore, protected areas, mountainous regions). From a marketing point of view, it is important: holding international marketing events, compiling a list of target countries, formation of stimulus mechanisms, development of incentive programs for international tour operators, etc. The paper draws conclusions about the problems of using the tourism potential, recommendations on ways to solve this problems through international marketing and PR communication strategies are offered

Keywords: PR communication, international marketing strategy, tourism potential, post-pandemic period

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Mimoza Canga, Irene Malagnino, Gresa Baboci, Edit Xhajanka, Vito Antonio Malagnino

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Background: Diabetes mellitus is regarded as a very problematic chronic disease that has an effect on a considerable number of people around the world and it is straightforwardly associated with the oral health condition of the patients. Objective: The objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the impact of diabetes mellitus on oral health. Materials and methods: In the present research were taken into consideration 300 patients with an age range of 11 to 80 years old. The study sample was composed of 191 males, respectively 63.7% of them and 109 females 36.3% of the participants. We divided them into seven age groups: 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years.This descriptive and analytical research was designed as a longitudinal study. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS 23.0 statistics. Results: The majority of patients participating in the study belonged to the age range from 41 to 50 years old, precisely 20.7% of them, while 27% of the patients were from 51 to 60 years old. Based on the present research, it resulted that 24.4% of the participant had high blood sugar values 250-300 mg/dl, whereas 19 % of the patients had very high blood sugar values 300-350 mg/dl. Based on the results of the current study, it was observed that 83.7% of patients were affected by gingivitis. In the current study, the significant finding is that 22% of patients had more than 7 teeth with dental caries and 21% of them had 5-7 teeth with dental caries, whereas 29% of the patients had 4-5 dental caries and the remaining 28% of them had 1-3 dental caries. The present study showed that most of the patients, 27% of them had lost more than 7 teeth and 22% of the participants had lost 5-7 teeth, whereas 31% of the patients had lost 4-5 teeth and only 20 % of them had lost 1-3 teeth. This study proved that high blood sugar values had a direct impact on the manifestation of gingivitis and there it was a strong correlation between them with P-value = .001. A strong correlation was found out between dental caries and high blood sugar values with P-value ˂.001. Males with diabetes mellitus were more affected by dental caries and this was proved by the P-value= .02, in comparison to females P-value=.03. The impact of high blood sugar values affects missing teeth and the correlation between them was statistically significant with P-value ˂ .001. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that diabetes mellitus is a possible risk factor in oral health for the reason that Albanian patients over 51 years old, respectively 43% of them have over 5 teeth with dental caries as compared with 49% of the patients who had over 5 missing teeth, whereas the majority 83.7% of them suffered from gingivitis. This study asserts that patients who do not have periodical check-ups of diabetes mellitus are at significant risk of oral diseases.

Keywords: dental caries, diabetes mellitus, gingivitis, missing teeth

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Juan Francisco Reinoso Gordo, Francisco Javier Ariza-López, José Rodríguez Avi, Domingo Barrera Rosillo

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The evaluation of the quality of a data product is based on the comparison of the product with a reference of greater accuracy. In the case of MDE data products, quality assessment usually focuses on positional accuracy and few studies consider other terrain characteristics, such as slope and orientation. The proposal that is made consists of evaluating the similarity of two DEMs (a product and a reference), through the joint analysis of the distribution functions of the variables of interest, for example, elevations, slopes and orientations. This is a multivariable approach that focuses on distribution functions, not on single parameters such as mean values or dispersions (e.g. root mean squared error or variance). This is considered to be a more holistic approach. The use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is proposed due to its non-parametric nature, since the distributions of the variables of interest cannot always be adequately modeled by parametric models (e.g. the Normal distribution model). In addition, its application to the multivariate case is carried out jointly by means of a single test on the convolution of the distribution functions of the variables considered, which avoids the use of corrections such as Bonferroni when several statistics hypothesis tests are carried out together. In this work, two DEM products have been considered, DEM02 with a resolution of 2x2 meters and DEM05 with a resolution of 5x5 meters, both generated by the National Geographic Institute of Spain. DEM02 is considered as the reference and DEM05 as the product to be evaluated. In addition, the slope and aspect derived models have been calculated by GIS operations on the two DEM datasets. Through sample simulation processes, the adequate behavior of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test has been verified when the null hypothesis is true, which allows calibrating the value of the statistic for the desired significance value (e.g. 5%). Once the process has been calibrated, the same process can be applied to compare the similarity of different DEM data sets (e.g. the DEM05 versus the DEM02). In summary, an innovative alternative for the comparison of DEM data sets based on a multinomial non-parametric perspective has been proposed by means of a single Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This new approach could be extended to other DEM features of interest (e.g. curvature, etc.) and to more than three variables

Keywords: data quality, DEM, kolmogorov-smirnov test, multivariate DEM comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Luedech Girdwichai, Withaya Mekhum

Abstract:

This research intended to develop the model of community management for sustainable utilization by investigating on 2 groups of population, the family heads and the community management team. The population of the former group consisted of family heads from 511 families in 12 areas to complete the questionnaires which were returned at 479 sets. The latter group consisted of the community management team of 12 areas with 1 representative from each area to give the interview. The questionnaires for the family heads consisted of 2 main parts; general information such as occupations, etc. in the form of checklist. The second part dealt with the data on self reliance community development based on 4P Framework, i.e., People (human resource) development, Place (area) development, Product (economic and income source) development, and Plan (community plan) development in the form of rating scales. Data in the 1st part were calculated to find frequency and percentage while those in the 2nd part were analyzed to find arithmetic mean and SD. Data from the 2nd group of population or the community management team were derived from focus group to find factors influencing successful management together with the in depth interview which were analyzed by descriptive statistics. The results showed that 479 family heads reported that the aspect on the implementation of community plan to self reliance community activities based on Sufficient Economy Philosophy and the 4P was at the average of 3.28 or moderate level. When considering in details, it was found that the 1st aspect was on the area development with the mean of 3.71 or high level followed by human resource development with the mean of 3.44 or moderate level, then, economic and source of income development with the mean of 3.09 or moderate level. The last aspect was community plan development with the mean of 2.89. The results from the small group discussion revealed some factors and guidelines for successful community management as follows: 1) on the People (human resource) development aspect, there was a project to support and develop community leaders. 2) On the aspect of Place (area) development, there was a development on conservative tourism areas. 3) On the aspect of Product (economic and source of income) development, the community leaders promoted the setting of occupational group, saving group, and product processing group. 4) On the aspect of Plan (community plan) development, there was a prioritization through public hearing.

Keywords: model of community management, sustainable utilization, family heads, community management team

Procedia PDF Downloads 322