Search results for: confidence indicators

Authors: Phillip F. Blaauw, Anna M. Pretorius

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South Africa re-entered the international economy in the early 1990s, after Apartheid, at a time when globalisation was gathering momentum. Globalisation led to a more open economy, increased export volumes and a changed export mix. Manufacturing goods gained ground relative to mining products. After 21 years of democracy, South African researchers and policymakers need to evaluate the impact of international trade on the level of employment and compensation of employees in the South African manufacturing industry. This is important given the consistent and high levels of unemployment in South Africa. This paper has this evaluation as its aim. Two complimenting approaches are utilised. The 27 sub divisions of the South African manufacturing industry are classified according to capital/labour ratios. Possible trends in employment levels and employee compensation for these categories are then identified when comparing levels in 1995 to those in 2014. The supplementing empirical approach is cross-sectional and panel data regressions for the same period. The aim of the regression analysis is to explain the observed changes in employment and employee compensation levels between 1995 and 2014. The first part of the empirical approach revealed that over the 20-year period the intermediate capital intensive, labour intensive an ultra-labour intensive manufacturing industries all showed massive declines in overall employment. Only three of the 19 industries for these classifications showed marginal overall employment gains. The only meaningful gains were recorded in three of the eight capital intensive manufacturing industries. The overall performance of the South African manufacturing industry is therefore dismal at best. This scenario plays itself out for the skilled section of the intermediate capital intensive, labour intensive an ultra-labour intensive manufacturing industries as well. 18 out of the 19 industries displayed declines even for the skilled section of the labour force. The formal regression analysis supplements the above results. Real production growth is a statistically significant (95 per cent confidence level) explanatory variable of the overall employment level for the period under consideration, albeit with a small positive coefficient. The variables with the most significant negative relationship with changes in overall employment were the dummy variables for intermediate capital intensive and labour intensive manufacturing goods. Disaggregating overall changes in employment further in terms of skill levels revealed that skilled employment in particular responded negatively to increases in the ratio between imported and local inputs for manufacturing. The dummy variable for the labour intensive sectors remained negative and statistically significant, indicating that the labour intensive sectors of South African manufacturing remain vulnerable to the loss of employment opportunities. Whereas the first period (1995 to 2001) after the opening of the South African economy brought positive changes for skilled employment, continued increases in imported inputs displaced some of the skilled labour as well, putting further pressure on the South African economy with already high and persistent unemployment levels. Given the negative for the world commodity cycle and a stagnant local manufacturing sector, the challenge for policymakers is getting even more pronounced after South Africa’s political coming of age.

Keywords: capital/labour ratios, employment, employee compensation, manufacturing

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Harriet Bothwell, Lowri Evans, Kevin Jones

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Background: The University of Bristol provides all medical students the opportunity to undertake student selected components (SSCs) at multiple stages of the undergraduate programme. SSCs enable students to explore areas of interest that are not necessarily covered by the curriculum. Students are required to produce a written report and most use SSCs as an opportunity to undertake an audit or small research project. In 2013 Swindon Academy, based at the Great Western Hospital, offered eight students the opportunity of a global health SSC which included a two week trip to rural hospital in Uganda. This SSC has since expanded and in 2017 a total of 20 students had the opportunity to undertake small research projects at two hospitals in rural Uganda. 'Tomorrows Doctors' highlights the importance of understanding healthcare from a 'global perspective' and student feedback from previous SSCs suggests that self-assessed knowledge of global health increases as a result of this SSC. Through the most recent version of this SSC students had the opportunity to undertake projects in a wide range of specialties including paediatrics, palliative care, surgery and medical education. Methods: An anonymous online questionnaire was made available to students following the SSC. There was a response rate of 80% representing 16 out of the 20 students. This questionnaire surveyed students’ satisfaction and experience of the SSC including the level of academic, project and spiritual support provided as well as perceived challenges in completing the project and barriers to healthcare delivery in the low resource setting. This survey had multiple open questions allowing the collection of qualitative data. Further qualitative data was collected from the students’ project report. The suggested format included a reflection and all students completed these. All qualitative data underwent thematic analysis. Results: All respondents rated the overall experience of the SSC as 'good' or 'excellent'. Preliminary data suggest that students’ confidence in their knowledge of global health, diagnosis of tropical diseases and management of tropical diseases improved after completing this SSC. Thematic analysis of students' reflection is ongoing but suggests that students gain far more than improved knowledge of tropical diseases. Students reflect positively on having the opportunity to research in a low resource setting and feel that by completing these projects they will be 'useful' to the hospital. Several students reflect the stark contrast to healthcare delivery in the UK and recognise the 'privilege' of having a healthcare system that is free at the point of access. Some students noted the different approaches that clinicians in Uganda had to train in 'taking ownership' of their own learning. Conclusions: Students completing this SSC report increased knowledge of global health and tropical medicine. However, their reflections reveal much broader learning outcomes and demonstrate considerable insight in multiple topics including conducting research in the low resource setting, training and healthcare inequality.

Keywords: global health, medical education, student feedback, undergraduate

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Authors: Md Iqbal Hossain, Tahmeed Ahmed, Kenneth H. Brown

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Objective: To assess the effect of community-based follow up, with or without food-supplementation and/or psychosocial stimulation, as an alternative to current hospital-based follow-up of children with moderate-acute-malnutrition (WHZ < -2 to -3) (MAM). Design/methods: The study was conducted at the ICDDR,B Dhaka Hospital and in four urban primary health care centers of Dhaka, Bangladesh during 2005-2007. The efficacy of five different randomly assigned interventions was compared with respect to the rate of completion of follow-up, growth and morbidity in 227 MAM children aged 6-24 months who were initially treated at ICDDR,B for diarrhea and/or other morbidities. The interventions were: 1) Fortnightly follow-up care (FFC) at the ICDDR,B’s outpatient-unit, including growth monitoring, health education, and micro-nutrient supplementation (H-C, n=49). 2) FFC at community follow-up unit (CNFU) [established in the existing urban primary health-care centers close to the residence of the child] but received the same regimen as H-C (C-C, n=53). 3) As per C-C plus cereal-based supplementary food (SF) (C-SF, n=49). The SF packets were distributed on recruitment and at every visit in CNFU [@1 packet/day for 6–11 and 2 packets/day for 12-24 month old children. Each packet contained 20g toasted rice-powder, 10g toasted lentil-powder, 5g molasses, and 3g soy bean oil, to provide a total of ~ 150kcal with 11% energy from protein]. 4) As per C-C plus psychosocial stimulation (PS) (C-PS, n=43). PS consisted of child-stimulation and parental-counseling conducted by trained health workers. 5) As per C-C plus both SF+PS (C-SF+PS, n=33). Results: A total of 227children (48.5% female), with a mean ± SD age of 12.6 ±3.8 months, and WHZ of - 2.53±0.28 enrolled. Baseline characteristics did not differ by treatment group. The rate of spontaneous attendance at scheduled follow-up visits gradually decreased in all groups. Follow-up attendance and gain in weight and length were greater in groups C-SF, C-SF+PS, and C-PS than C-C, and these indicators were observed least in H-C. Children in the H-C group more often suffered from diarrhea (25 % vs. 4-9%) and fever (28% vs. 8-11%) than other groups (p < 0.05). Children who attended at least five of the total six scheduled follow-up visits gained more in weight (median: 0.86 vs. 0.62 kg, p=0.002), length (median: 2.4 vs. 2.0 cm, p=0.009) than those who attended fewer. Conclusions: Community-based service delivery, especially including supplementary food with or without psychosocial stimulation, permits better rehabilitation of children with MAM compared to current hospital outpatients-based care. By scaling the community-based follow-up including food supplementation with or without psychosocial stimulation, it will be possible to rehabilitate a greater number of MAM children in a better way.

Keywords: community-based management, moderate acute malnutrition, psychosocial stimulation, supplementary food

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Authors: A. Odoom, A. Salama, H. Ibrahim

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Hydrogen is a clean source of energy for power production and transportation. The main source of hydrogen in this research is biodiesel. Glycerol also called glycerine is a by-product of biodiesel production by transesterification of vegetable oils and methanol. This is a reliable and environmentally-friendly source of hydrogen production than fossil fuels. A typical composition of crude glycerol comprises of glycerol, water, organic and inorganic salts, soap, methanol and small amounts of glycerides. Crude glycerol has limited industrial application due to its low purity thus, the usage of crude glycerol can significantly enhance the sustainability and production of biodiesel. Reforming techniques is an approach for hydrogen production mainly Steam Reforming (SR), Autothermal Reforming (ATR) and Partial Oxidation Reforming (POR). SR produces high hydrogen conversions and yield but is highly endothermic whereas POR is exothermic. On the downside, PO yields lower hydrogen as well as large amount of side reactions. ATR which is a fusion of partial oxidation reforming and steam reforming is thermally neutral because net reactor heat duty is zero. It has relatively high hydrogen yield, selectivity as well as limits coke formation. The complex chemical processes that take place during the production phases makes it relatively difficult to construct a reliable and robust numerical model. Numerical model is a tool to mimic reality and provide insight into the influence of the parameters. In this work, we introduce a finite volume numerical study for an 'in-house' lab-scale experiment of ATR. Previous numerical studies on this process have considered either using Comsol or nodal finite difference analysis. Since Comsol is a commercial package which is not readily available everywhere and lab-scale experiment can be considered well mixed in the radial direction. One spatial dimension suffices to capture the essential feature of ATR, in this work, we consider developing our own numerical approach using MATLAB. A continuum fixed bed reactor is modelled using MATLAB with both pseudo homogeneous and heterogeneous models. The drawback of nodal finite difference formulation is that it is not locally conservative which means that materials and momenta can be generated inside the domain as an artifact of the discretization. Control volume, on the other hand, is locally conservative and suites very well problems where materials are generated and consumed inside the domain. In this work, species mass balance, Darcy’s equation and energy equations are solved using operator splitting technique. Therefore, diffusion-like terms are discretized implicitly while advection-like terms are discretized explicitly. An upwind scheme is adapted for the advection term to ensure accuracy and positivity. Comparisons with the experimental data show very good agreements which build confidence in our modeling approach. The models obtained were validated and optimized for better results.

Keywords: autothermal reforming, crude glycerol, hydrogen, numerical model

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Authors: Hui-Ling Yang, Kuei-Ru Chou

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Background: Studies show that cognitive training can effectively delay cognitive failure. However, there are several gaps in the previous studies of cognitive training in mild cognitive impairment: 1) previous studies enrolled mostly healthy older adults, with few recruiting older adults with cognitive impairment; 2) they also had limited generalizability and lacked long-term follow-up data and measurements of the activities of daily living functional impact. Moreover, only 37% were randomized controlled trials (RCT). 3) Limited cognitive training has been specifically developed for mild cognitive impairment. Objective: This study sought to investigate the changes in cognitive function, activities of daily living and degree of depressive symptoms in older adults with mild cognitive impairment after cognitive training. Methods: This double-blind randomized controlled study has a 2-arm parallel group design. Study subjects are older adults diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment in residential care facilities. 124 subjects will be randomized by the permuted block randomization, into intervention group (Cognitive training, CT), or active control group (Passive information activities, PIA). Therapeutic adherence, sample attrition rate, medication compliance and adverse events will be monitored during the study period, and missing data analyzed using intent-to-treat analysis (ITT). Results: Training sessions of the CT group are 45 minutes/day, 3 days/week, for 12 weeks (36 sessions each). The training of active control group is the same as CT group (45min/day, 3days/week, for 12 weeks, for a total of 36 sessions). The primary outcome is cognitive function, using the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE); the secondary outcome indicators are: 1) activities of daily living, using the Lawton’s Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs) and 2) degree of depressive symptoms, using the Geriatric Depression Scale-Short form (GDS-SF). Latent growth curve modeling will be used in the repeated measures statistical analysis to estimate the trajectory of improvement by examining the rate and pattern of change in cognitive functions, activities of daily living and degree of depressive symptoms for intervention efficacy over time, and the effects will be evaluated immediate post-test, 3 months, 6 months and one year after the last session. Conclusions: We constructed a rigorous CT program adhering to the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) reporting guidelines. We expect to determine the improvement in cognitive function, activities of daily living and degree of depressive symptoms of older adults with mild cognitive impairment after using the CT.

Keywords: mild cognitive impairment, cognitive training, randomized controlled study

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Authors: Charles Davidson

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This paper presents the Stoplight Analysis System of Partnering Organizations Readiness, offering a structured framework to evaluate conflict resolution collaboration feasibility, especially crucial in conflict areas, employing a colour-coded approach and specific assessment points, with implications for more informed decision-making and improved outcomes in peacebuilding initiatives. Derived from at total of 40 years of practical peacebuilding experience from the project’s two researchers as well as interviews of various other peacebuilding actors, this paper introduces the Stoplight Analysis System of Partnering Organizations Readiness, a comprehensive framework designed to facilitate effective collaboration in international/local peacebuilding partnerships by evaluating the readiness of both potential partner organisations and the location of the proposed project. ^The system employs a colour-coded approach, categorising potential partnerships into three distinct indicators: Red (no-go), Yellow (requires further research), and Green (promising, go ahead). Within each category, specific points are identified for assessment, guiding decision-makers in evaluating the feasibility and potential success of collaboration. The Red category signals significant barriers, prompting an immediate stoppage in the consideration of partnership. The Yellow category encourages deeper investigation to determine whether potential issues can be mitigated, while the Green category signifies organisations deemed ready for collaboration. This systematic and structured approach empowers decision-makers to make informed choices, enhancing the likelihood of successful and mutually beneficial partnerships. Methodologically, this paper utilised interviews from peacebuilders from around the globe, scholarly research of extant strategies, and a collaborative review of programming from the project’s two authors from their own time in the field. This method as a formalised model has been employed for the past two years across a litany of partnership considerations, and has been adjusted according to its field experimentation. This research holds significant importance in the field of conflict resolution as it provides a systematic and structured approach to peacebuilding partnership evaluation. In conflict-affected regions, where the dynamics are complex and challenging, the Stoplight Analysis System offers decision-makers a practical tool to assess the readiness of partnering organisations. This approach can enhance the efficiency of conflict resolution efforts by ensuring that resources are directed towards partnerships with a higher likelihood of success, ultimately contributing to more effective and sustainable peacebuilding outcomes.

Keywords: collaboration, conflict resolution, partnerships, peacebuilding

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Authors: Antonio Pratelli, Lorenzo Brocchini, Reginald Roy Souleyrette

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A rotary is a traffic circle intersection where vehicles entering from branches give priority to circulating flow. Vehicles entering the intersection from converging roads move around the central island and weave out of the circle into their desired exiting branch. This creates merging and diverging conflicts among any entry and its successive exit, i.e., a section. Therefore, rotary capacity models are usually based on the weaving of the different movements in any section of the circle, and the maximum rate of flow value is then related to each weaving section of the rotary. Nevertheless, the single-section capacity value does not lead to the typical performance characteristics of the intersection, such as the entry average delay which is directly linked to its level of service. From another point of view, modern roundabout capacity models are based on the limitation of the flow entering from the single entrance due to the amount of flow circulating in front of the entrance itself. Modern roundabouts capacity models generally lead also to a performance evaluation. This paper aims to incorporate a modern roundabout capacity model into an old rotary capacity method to obtain from the latter the single input capacity and ultimately achieve the related performance indicators. Put simply; the main objective is to calculate the average delay of each single roundabout entrance to apply the most common Highway Capacity Manual, or HCM, criteria. The paper is organized as follows: firstly, the rotary and roundabout capacity models are sketched, and it has made a brief introduction to the model combination technique with some practical instances. The successive section is deserved to summarize the TRRL old rotary capacity model and the most recent HCM-7th modern roundabout capacity model. Then, the two models are combined through an iteration-based algorithm, especially set-up and linked to the concept of roundabout total capacity, i.e., the value reached due to a traffic flow pattern leading to the simultaneous congestion of all roundabout entrances. The solution is the average delay for each entrance of the rotary, by which is estimated its respective level of service. In view of further experimental applications, at this research stage, a collection of existing rotary intersections operating with the priority-to-circle rule has already started, both in the US and in Italy. The rotaries have been selected by direct inspection of aerial photos through a map viewer, namely Google Earth. Each instance has been recorded by location, general urban or rural, and its main geometrical patterns. Finally, conclusion remarks are drawn, and a discussion on some further research developments has opened.

Keywords: mixed methods, old rotary and modern roundabout capacity models, total capacity algorithm, level of service estimation

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Authors: Łukasz Ambroziak

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Although the impact of the production fragmentation on trade flows has been examined many times since the 1990s, the research was not comprehensive because of the limitations in traditional trade statistics. Early 2010s the complex databases containing world input-output tables (or indicators calculated on their basis) has made available. It increased the possibilities of examining the production sharing in the world. The trade statistic in value-added terms enables us better to estimate trade changes resulted from the internationalisation and globalisation as well as benefits of the countries from international trade. In the literature, there are many research studies on this topic. Unfortunately, trade in value added of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been so far insufficiently studied. Thus, the aim of the paper is to present changes in value added trade of the CEECs (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) in the period of 1995-2011. The concept 'trade in value added' or 'value added trade' is defined as the value added of a country which is directly and indirectly embodied in final consumption of another country. The typical question would be: 'How much value added is created in a country due to final consumption in the other countries?' The data will be downloaded from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The structure of this paper is as follows. First, theoretical and methodological aspects related to the application of the input-output tables in the trade analysis will be studied. Second, a brief survey of the empirical literature on this topic will be presented. Third, changes in exports and imports in value added of the CEECs will be analysed. A special attention will be paid to the differences in bilateral trade balances using traditional trade statistics (in gross terms) on one side, and value added statistics on the other. Next, in order to identify factors influencing value added exports and value added imports of the CEECs the generalised gravity model, based on panel data, will be used. The dependent variables will be value added exports and imports. The independent variables will be, among others, the level of GDP of trading partners, the level of GDP per capita of trading partners, the differences in GDP per capita, the level of the FDI inward stock, the geographical distance, the existence (or non-existence) of common border, the membership (or not) in preferential trade agreements or in the EU. For comparison, an estimation will also be made based on exports and imports in gross terms. The initial research results show that the gravity model better explained determinants of trade in value added than gross trade (R2 in the former is higher). The independent variables had the same direction of impact both on value added exports/imports and gross exports/imports. Only value of coefficients differs. The most difference concerned geographical distance. It had smaller impact on trade in value added than gross trade.

Keywords: central and eastern European countries, gravity model, input-output tables, trade in value added

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Authors: Rommila Chandra, Harshika Choudhary

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The value of integrated, participatory, and community based sustainable development strategies is eminent, but in practice, it still remains fragmentary and often leads to short-lived results. Despite the global presence of climate change, its impacts are felt differently by different communities based on their vulnerability. The developing countries have the low adaptive capacity and high dependence on environmental variables, making them highly susceptible to outmigration and poverty. We need to understand how to enable these approaches, taking into account the various governmental and non-governmental stakeholders functioning at different levels, to deliver long-term socio-economic and environmental well-being of local communities. The research assessed the financial and natural vulnerability of Himalayan networks, focusing on their potential to adapt to various changes, through accessing their perceived reactions and local knowledge. The evaluation was conducted by testing indices for vulnerability, with a major focus on indicators for adaptive capacity. Data for the analysis were collected from the villages around Govind National Park and Wildlife Sanctuary, located in the Indian Himalayan Region. The villages were stratified on the basis of connectivity via road, thus giving two kinds of human settlements connected and isolated. The study focused on understanding the complex relationship between outmigration and the socio-cultural sentiments of local people to not abandon their land, assessing their adaptive capacity for livelihood opportunities, and exploring their contribution that integrated participatory methodologies can play in delivering sustainable development. The result showed that the villages having better road connectivity, access to market, and basic amenities like health and education have a better understanding about the climatic shift, natural hazards, and a higher adaptive capacity for income generation in comparison to the isolated settlements in the hills. The participatory approach towards environmental conservation and sustainable use of natural resources were seen more towards the far-flung villages. The study helped to reduce the gap between local understanding and government policies by highlighting the ongoing adaptive practices and suggesting precautionary strategies for the community studied based on their local conditions, which differ on the basis of connectivity and state of development. Adaptive capacity in this study has been taken as the externally driven potential of different parameters, leading to a decrease in outmigration and upliftment of the human environment that could lead to sustainable livelihood development in the rural areas of Himalayas.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, Indian Himalayan region, participatory, sustainable livelihood development

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Authors: Lennart Dimberg, Lala Joulha Ian

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Introduction: Overweight (BMI 25-30) and obesity (BMI 30+) have consistently been associated with cardiovascular (CV) risk and death since the Framingham heart study in 1948, and BMI was included in the original Framingham risk score (FRS). Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) poses a serious threat to the patient's life. In addition to BMI, several other indices of overweight have been presented and argued to replace FRS as more relevant measures of CV risk. These indices include waist circumference (WC), waist/hip ratio (WHR), sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), and sagittal abdominal diameter to height (SADHtR). Specific research question: The research question of this study is to evaluate the interrelationship between the various body measurements, BMI, WC, WHR, SAD, and SADHtR, and which measurement is strongly associated with MI and death. Methods: In 1993, 1,000 middle-aged Caucasian, randomly selected working men of the Swedish Volvo-Renault cohort were surveyed at a nurse-led health examination with a questionnaire, EKG, laboratory tests, blood pressure, height, weight, waist, and sagittal abdominal diameter measurements. Outcome data of myocardial infarction over 28 years come from Swedeheart (the Swedish national myocardial infarction registry) and the Swedish death registry. The Aalen-Johansen and Kaplan–Meier methods were used to estimate the cumulative incidences of MI and death. Multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to compare BMI with the other four body measurements. The risk for the various measures of obesity was calculated with outcomes of accumulated first-time myocardial infarction and death as odds ratios (OR) in quartiles. The ORs between the 4th and the 1st quartile of each measure were calculated to estimate the association between the body measurement variables and the probability of cumulative incidences of myocardial infarction (MI) over time. Double-sided P values below 0.05 will be considered statistically significant. Unadjusted odds ratios were calculated for obesity indicators, MI, and death. Adjustments for age, diabetes, SBP, and the ratio of total cholesterol/HDL-C and blue/white collar status were performed. Results: Out of 1000 people, 959 subjects had full information about the five different body measurements. Of those, 90 participants had a first MI, and 194 persons died. The study showed that there was a high and significant correlation between the five different body measurements, and they were all associated with CVD risk factors. All body measurements were significantly associated with MI, with the highest (OR=3.6) seen for SADHtR and WC. After adjustment, all but SADHtR remained significant with weaker ORs. As for all-cause mortality, WHR (OR=1.7), SAD (OR=1.9), and SADHtR (OR=1.6) were significantly associated, but not WC and BMI. However, after adjustment, only WHR and SAD were significantly associated with death, but with attenuated ORs.

Keywords: BMI, death, epidemiology, myocardial infarction, risk factor, sagittal abdominal diameter, sagittal abdominal diameter to height, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio

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Authors: Mariam Tsitsagi, Ana Berdzenishvili

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Rainfall intensity change is one of the main indicators of climate change. It has a great influence on agriculture as one of the main factors causing soil erosion. Splash and sheet erosion are one of the most prevalence and harmful for agriculture. It is invisible for an eye at first stage, but the process will gradually move to stream cutting erosion. Our study provides the assessment of rainfall erosivity potential with the use of modern research methods in Kakheti region. The region is the major provider of wheat and wine in the country. Kakheti is located in the eastern part of Georgia and characterized quite a variety of natural conditions. The climate is dry subtropical. For assessment of the exact rate of rainfall erosion potential several year data of rainfall with short intervals are needed. Unfortunately, from 250 active metro stations running during the Soviet period only 55 of them are active now and 5 stations in Kakheti region respectively. Since 1936 we had data on rainfall intensity in this region, and rainfall erosive potential is assessed, in some old papers, but since 1990 we have no data about this factor, which in turn is a necessary parameter for determining the rainfall erosivity potential. On the other hand, researchers and local communities suppose that rainfall intensity has been changing and the number of haily days has also been increasing. However, finding a method that will allow us to determine rainfall erosivity potential as accurate as possible in Kakheti region is very important. The study period was divided into three sections: 1936-1963; 1963-1990 and 1990-2015. Rainfall erosivity potential was determined by the scientific literature and old meteorological stations’ data for the first two periods. And it is known that in eastern Georgia, at the boundary between steppe and forest zones, rainfall erosivity in 1963-1990 was 20-75% higher than that in 1936-1963. As for the third period (1990-2015), for which we do not have data of rainfall intensity. There are a variety of studies, where alternative ways of calculating the rainfall erosivity potential based on lack of data are discussed e.g.based on daily rainfall data, average annual rainfall data and the elevation of the area, etc. It should be noted that these methods give us a totally different results in case of different climatic conditions and sometimes huge errors in some cases. Three of the most common methods were selected for our research. Each of them was tested for the first two sections of the study period. According to the outcomes more suitable method for regional climatic conditions was selected, and after that, we determined rainfall erosivity potential for the third section of our study period with use of the most successful method. Outcome data like attribute tables and graphs was specially linked to the database of Kakheti, and appropriate thematic maps were created. The results allowed us to analyze the rainfall erosivity potential changes from 1936 to the present and make the future prospect. We have successfully implemented a method which can also be use for some another region of Georgia.

Keywords: erosivity potential, Georgia, GIS, Kakheti, rainfall

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Authors: Irene Kalemaki, Ioanna Garefi

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Social Innovation Education (SIE) is a new educational approach that aims to empower students to take action for a more democratic and sustainable society. Conceptually and pedagogically wise, it is situated at the intersection of Enterprise Education and Citizenship Education as it aspires to i) combine action with activism, ii) personal development with collective efficacy, iii) entrepreneurial mindsets with democratic values and iv) individual competences with collective competences. This paper abstract presents the work of the NEMESIS project, funded by H2020, that aims to design, test and validate the first consolidated approach for embedding Social Innovation Education in schools of primary and secondary education. During the academic year 2018-2019, eight schools from five European countries experimented with different approaches and methodologies to incorporate SIE in their settings. This paper reports briefly on these attempts and discusses the wider educational philosophy underlying these interventions with a particular focus on analyzing the learning outcomes and impact on students. That said, this paper doesn’t only report on the theoretical and practical underpinnings of SIE, but most importantly, it provides evidence on the impact of SIE on students. In terms of methodology, the study took place from September 2018 to July 2019 in eight schools from Greece, Spain, Portugal, France, and the UK involving directly 56 teachers, 1030 students and 69 community stakeholders. Focus groups, semi-structured interviews, classroom observations as well as students' written narratives were used to extract data on the impact of SIE on students. The overall design of the evaluation activities was informed by a realist approach, which enabled us to go beyond “what happened” and towards understanding “why it happened”. Research findings suggested that SIE can benefit students in terms of their emotional, cognitive, behavioral and agentic engagement. Specifically, the emotional engagement of students was increased because through SIE interventions; students voice was heard, valued, and acted upon. This made students feel important to their school, increasing their sense of belonging, confidence and level of autonomy. As regards cognitive engagement, both students and teachers reported positive outcomes as SIE enabled students to take ownership of their ideas to drive their projects forward and thus felt more motivated to perform in class because it felt personal, important and relevant to them. In terms of behavioral engagement, the inclusive environment and the collective relationships that were reinforced through the SIE interventions had a direct positive impact on behaviors among peers. Finally, with regard to agentic engagement, it has been observed that students became very proactive which was connected to the strong sense of ownership and enthusiasm developed during collective efforts to deliver real-life social innovations. Concluding, from a practical and policy point of view these research findings could encourage the inclusion of SIE in schools, while from a research point of view, they could contribute to the scientific discourse providing evidence and clarity on the emergent field of SIE.

Keywords: education, engagement, social innovation, students

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Authors: Vijayabhaskar Reddy Kandula, Peter Provost Taillac, Balasubramanya M. A., Ram Krishnan Nair, Gokul Toshnival, Vibhu Dhawan, Vijaya Karanam, Buffy Cramer

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Introduction: The lack of Emergency Care Services (ECS) is a cause of extensive and serious public health problems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), Many LMIC countries have ambulance services that allow timely transfer of ill patients but due to poor care during the ‘Golden Hour’ many deaths occur which are otherwise preventable. Lack of adequate training as evidenced by a study in India is a major reason for poor care during the ‘Golden Hour’. Adapting developed country models which includes staffing specialty-trained doctors in emergency care, is neither feasible nor guarantees cost-effective ECS. Methods: Based on our assessment and felt needs by first-line doctors providing emergency care in 2014, Rajiv Gandhi Health Sciences University’s JeevaRaksha Trust in partnership with the University of Utah, USA, designed, piloted and successfully implemented a 4-day Comprehensive-Emergency Care and Life Support course (C-ECLS) for allopathic doctors. 1730 doctors completed the 4-day course between June 2014 and December- 2020. Subsequently, we conducted a survey to investigate the utilization rates and usefulness of the training. 1662 were contacted but only 309 completed the survey. The respondents had the following designations: Senior faculty (33%), junior faculty (25), Resident (16%), Private-Practitioners (8%), Medical-Officer (16%) and not-working (11%). 51% were generalists (51%) and the rest were specialists (>30 specialties). Results: 97% (271/280) felt they are better doctors because of C-ECLS. 79% (244/309) reported that training helped to save life- specialists more likely than generalists (91% v/s 68%. P<0.05). 64% agreed that they were confident of managing COVID-19 symptomatic patients better because of C-ECLS. 27% (77) were neutral; 9% (24) disagreed. 66% agreed that training helps to be confident in managing COVID-19 critically ill patients. 26% (72) were neutral; 8% (23) disagreed. Frequency of use of C-ECLS skills: Hemorrhage-control (70%), Airway (67%), circulation skills (62%), Safe-transport and communication (60%), managing critically ill patients (58%), cardiac arrest (51%), Trauma (49%), poisoning/animal bites/stings (44%), neonatal-resuscitation (39%), breathing (36%), post-partum-hemorrhage and eclampsia (35%). Among those who used the skills, the majority (ranging from (88%-94%) reported that they were able to apply the skill more effectively because of ECLS training. Conclusion: JeevaRaksha’s C-ECLS is the world’s first comprehensive training. It improves the confidence of front-line doctors and enables them to provide quality care during the ‘Golden Hour’ of emergency. It also prepares doctors to manage unknown emergencies (e.g., COVID-19). C-ECLS was piloted in Morocco, and Uzbekistan and implemented countrywide in Bhutan. C-ECLS is relevant to most settings and offers a replicable model across LMIC.

Keywords: comprehensive emergency care and life support, training, capacity building, low- and middle-income countries, developing countries

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Authors: Mohsina Aktar, Bishawjit Mallick

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Bangladesh faces the multidimensional manifestations of climate change e.g. flood, cyclone, sea level rise, drainage congestion, salinity, etc. This study aimed at to find out the community’s perception of the perceived impact of climate change on their wetland resource based livelihood, to analyze their present livelihood scenario and to find out required institutional setup to strengthen present livelihood scenario. Therefore, this study required both quantitative analysis like quantification of wetland resources, occupation, etc. and also exploratory information like policy and institutional reform. For quantitative information 200 questionnaire survey and in some cases observation survey and for socially shareable qualitative and quantitative issues case study and focus group discussion were conducted. In-Depth interview was conducted for socially non-shareable qualitative issues. The overall findings of this study have been presented maintaining a sequence- perception about climate change effect, livelihood scenario and required institutional support of the wetland community. Flood has been ranked where cyclone effect is comparatively less disastrous in this area. Heavy rainfall comes after the cyclone. Female members responded almost same about the ranking and effects of frequently occurred and devastating effects of climate change. People are much more aware of the impact of climate change. Training of Care in RVCC project helps to increase their knowledge level. If the level of education can be increased, people can fight against calamity and poverty with more confidence. People seem to overcome the problems of water logging and thus besides involving in Hydroponics (33.3%) as prime occupation in monsoon; they are also engaged in other business related activities. January to May is the low-income season for the farmers. But some people don’t want to change their traditional occupation and their age is above 45. The young earning member wants to utilize their lean income period by alternative occupation. People who do not have own land and performing water transportation or other types of occupation are now interested about Hydroponics. People who give their land on rent are now thinking about renting their land in monsoon as through that they can earn a sound amount rather than get nothing. What they require is just seed, training, and capital. Present marketing system faces the problem of communication. So this sector needed to be developed. Involvement of women in income earning activity is very low (5.1%), and 100% women are housewives. They became inferior due to their educational level and dominance of their husband. Only one NGO named BCAS (Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies) has been found engage training facilities and advocacy for this purpose. Upazilla agricultural extension office like other GO remains inactive to give support the community for extension and improvement of Hydroponics agriculture. If the community gets proper support and inspiration, they can fight against crisis of low-income and climate change, with the Hydroponics cultivation system successfully.

Keywords: wetland community, hydroponics, climate change adaptation, livelihood

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Thor Alexis Sazon, Alexander Guzman-Urbina, Yasuhiro Fukushima

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This study outlines the method of how to develop a surrogate life cycle model based on fuzzy logic using three fuzzy inference methods: (1) the conventional Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), (2) the hybrid system of Data Analytics and Fuzzy Inference (DAFIS), which uses data clustering for defining the membership functions, and (3) the Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a combination of fuzzy inference and artificial neural network. These methods were demonstrated with a case study where the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of solar photovoltaic (PV) were estimated using Solar Irradiation, Module Efficiency, and Performance Ratio as inputs. The effects of using different fuzzy inference types, either Sugeno- or Mamdani-type, and of changing the number of input membership functions to the error between the calibration data and the model-generated outputs were also illustrated. The solution spaces of the three methods were consequently examined with a sensitivity analysis. ANFIS exhibited the lowest error while DAFIS gave slightly lower errors compared to FIS. Increasing the number of input membership functions helped with error reduction in some cases but, at times, resulted in the opposite. Sugeno-type models gave errors that are slightly lower than those of the Mamdani-type. While ANFIS is superior in terms of error minimization, it could generate solutions that are questionable, i.e. the negative GWP values of the Solar PV system when the inputs were all at the upper end of their range. This shows that the applicability of the ANFIS models highly depends on the range of cases at which it was calibrated. FIS and DAFIS generated more intuitive trends in the sensitivity runs. DAFIS demonstrated an optimal design point wherein increasing the input values does not improve the GWP and LCOE anymore. In the absence of data that could be used for calibration, conventional FIS presents a knowledge-based model that could be used for prediction. In the PV case study, conventional FIS generated errors that are just slightly higher than those of DAFIS. The inherent complexity of a Life Cycle study often hinders its widespread use in the industry and policy-making sectors. While the methodology does not guarantee a more accurate result compared to those generated by the Life Cycle Methodology, it does provide a relatively simpler way of generating knowledge- and data-based estimates that could be used during the initial design of a system.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic, fuzzy logic, inference system, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Laura E. Hall, Joel Monárrez-Espino, Luz María Tejada Tayabas

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College students are at risk of weight gain and poor dietary habits, and health behaviours established during this period have been shown to track into midlife. They may therefore be an important target group for health promotion strategies, yet there is a lack of literature regarding dietary intakes and associated factors in this group, particularly in middle-income countries such as Mexico. The aim of this exploratory research was to describe and compare reported dietary intakes among nursing and nutrition college students at two public universities in Mexico, and to explore the relationship between demographic, behavioural and other health-related factors and the risk of low diet quality. Mexican college students (n=444) majoring in nutrition or nursing at two urban universities completed questionnaires regarding dietary and health-related behaviours and risks. Dietary intake was assessed via 24-hour recall. Weight, height and abdominal circumference were measured. Descriptive statistics were reported and nutrient intakes were compared between colleges and study tracks using Student’s t tests, odds ratios and Pearson chi square tests. Two dietary quality scores were constructed to explore the relationship between demographic, behavioural and other health-related factors and the diet quality scores using binary logistic regression. Analysis was performed using SPSS statistics, with differences considered statistically significant at p<0.05. The response rate to the survey was 91%. When macronutrients were considered as a percentage of total energy, the majority of students had protein intakes within recommended ranges, however one quarter of students had carbohydrate and fat intakes exceeding recommended levels. Three quarters had fibre intakes that were below recommendations. More than half of the students reported intakes of magnesium, zinc, vitamin A, folate and vitamin E that were below estimated average requirements. Students studying nutrition reported macronutrient and micronutrient intakes that were more compliant with recommendations compared to nursing students, and students studying in central-north Mexico were more compliant than those studying in southeast Mexico. Breakfast skipping (Adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) = 5.3; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.2-22.7), risk of anxiety (OR = 2.3; CI = 1.3-4.4), and university location (OR = 1.6; CI = 1.03-2.6) were associated with a greater risk of having a low macronutrient score. Caloric intakes <1800kcal (OR = 5.8; CI = 3.5-9.7), breakfast skipping (OR = 3.7; CI = 1.4-10.3), vigorous exercise ≤1h/week (OR = 2.6; CI = 1.3-5.2), soda consumption >250mls/day (OR = 2.0; CI = 1.2-3.3), unhealthy diet perception (OR = 1.9; CI = 1.2-3.0), and university location (OR = 1.8; CI = 1.1-2.8) were significantly associated with greater odds of having a low micronutrient score. College students studying nursing and nutrition did not report ideal diets, and these students should not be overlooked in public health interventions. Differences in dietary intakes between universities and study tracks were evident, with more favourable profiles evident in nutrition compared to nursing, and North-central compared to Southeast students. Further, demographic, behavioural and other health-related factors were associated with diet quality scores, warranting further research.

Keywords: college student, diet quality, nutrient intake, young adult

Procedia PDF Downloads 432

Authors: G. C. Phiri, E. A. Heil, A. A. Kalimbira, E. Muehlhoff, C. Masangano, B. M. Mtimuni, J. Herrmann, M. B. Krawinkel, I. Jordan

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Background and objectives: High prevalence of undernutrition in Malawi is caused by poor complementary foods. Lack of knowledge of age appropriate food within the household might affect utilization of available resources. FAO-Malawi implemented nutrition education (NE) sessions in 200 villages in Kasungu and Mzimba districts from December 2012 to April 2013 targeting 15 caregivers per village of children aged 6-18 months, grandmothers, spouses and community leaders. Two trained volunteers per village facilitated 10 NE sessions on breastfeeding, food safety and hygiene and complementary feeding using locally available resources. This study assessed the reported dietary diversification practices of infant and young child after nutrition education and the factors that influenced adoption of the practice. Methodology: Questionnaire-based interviews with caregivers were conducted in 16 randomly selected villages (n=108) before training-(t1) and seven months after training-(t2). Knowledge score (KS) was calculated on the indicators breastfeeding, hygiene and complementary feeding. Count regression was performed using SPSS 22. Eight focus group discussions (FGDs) were separately conducted among caregivers and grandmothers in 4 villages. Content analysis was used to analyze FGDs data. Results: Following NE, caregivers' KS significantly increased (p<0.001) between t1 and t2 for breastfeeding (7.7 vs. 9.8, max=18), hygiene (3.8 vs. 5.9, max=7) and complementary feeding (10.2 vs. 16.2, max=26). Caregivers indicated that they stopped preparation of plain-refined maize meal porridge after they gained knowledge on dietary diversification of complementary foods. They learnt mushing and pounding of ingredients for enriched porridge. Whole-maize meal or potatoes were often enriched with vegetables, legumes, small fish or eggs and cooking oil. Children liked the taste of enriched porridge. Amount of enriched porridge consumed at each sitting increase among previously fussy-eater children. Meal frequency increased by including fruits as snacks in child’s diet. Grandmothers observed preparation of enriched porridge among the mothers using locally available foods. Grandmothers liked the taste of enriched porridge and not the greenish color of the porridge. Both grandmothers and mothers reported that children were playing independently after consuming enriched porridge and were strong and healthy. These motivated adoption of the practice. Conclusion: Increased knowledge and skill of preparation and utilisation of locally available foods promoted children’s dietary diversification. Children liking the enriched porridge motivated adoption of dietary diversification.

Keywords: behaviour change, complementary feeding, dietary diversification, IYCN

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Ana L. M. Pavan, Guilherme Giacomini, Allan F. F. Alves, Marcela De Oliveira, Fernando A. B. Neto, Maria E. D. Rosa, Andre P. Trindade, Diana R. De Pina

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Mammography is a worldwide image modality used to diagnose breast cancer, even in asymptomatic women. Due to its large availability, mammograms can be used to measure breast density and to predict cancer development. Women with increased mammographic density have a four- to sixfold increase in their risk of developing breast cancer. Therefore, studies have been made to accurately quantify mammographic breast density. In clinical routine, radiologists perform image evaluations through BIRADS (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System) assessment. However, this method has inter and intraindividual variability. An automatic objective method to measure breast density could relieve radiologist’s workload by providing a first aid opinion. However, pectoral muscle is a high density tissue, with similar characteristics of fibroglandular tissues. It is consequently hard to automatically quantify mammographic breast density. Therefore, a pre-processing is needed to segment the pectoral muscle which may erroneously be quantified as fibroglandular tissue. The aim of this work was to develop an automatic algorithm to segment and extract pectoral muscle in digital mammograms. The database consisted of thirty medio-lateral oblique incidence digital mammography from São Paulo Medical School. This study was developed with ethical approval from the authors’ institutions and national review panels under protocol number 3720-2010. An algorithm was developed, in Matlab® platform, for the pre-processing of images. The algorithm uses image processing tools to automatically segment and extract the pectoral muscle of mammograms. Firstly, it was applied thresholding technique to remove non-biological information from image. Then, the Hough transform is applied, to find the limit of the pectoral muscle, followed by active contour method. Seed of active contour is applied in the limit of pectoral muscle found by Hough transform. An experienced radiologist also manually performed the pectoral muscle segmentation. Both methods, manual and automatic, were compared using the Jaccard index and Bland-Altman statistics. The comparison between manual and the developed automatic method presented a Jaccard similarity coefficient greater than 90% for all analyzed images, showing the efficiency and accuracy of segmentation of the proposed method. The Bland-Altman statistics compared both methods in relation to area (mm²) of segmented pectoral muscle. The statistic showed data within the 95% confidence interval, enhancing the accuracy of segmentation compared to the manual method. Thus, the method proved to be accurate and robust, segmenting rapidly and freely from intra and inter-observer variability. It is concluded that the proposed method may be used reliably to segment pectoral muscle in digital mammography in clinical routine. The segmentation of the pectoral muscle is very important for further quantifications of fibroglandular tissue volume present in the breast.

Keywords: active contour, fibroglandular tissue, hough transform, pectoral muscle

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Carin Chuang, Kuan-Chou Chen

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An Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system is an integrated information system that supports the seamless integration of all the business processes of a company. Implementing an ERP system can increase efficiencies and decrease the costs while helping improve productivity. Many organizations including large, medium and small-sized companies have already adopted an ERP system for decades. Although ERP system can bring competitive advantages to organizations, the lack of proper training approach in ERP implementation is still a major concern. Organizations understand the importance of ERP training to adequately prepare managers and users. The low return on investment, however, for the ERP training makes the training difficult for knowledgeable workers to transfer what is learned in training to the jobs at workplace. Inadequate and inefficient ERP training limits the value realization and success of an ERP system. That is the need to call for a profound change and innovation for ERP training in both workplace at industry and the Information Systems (IS) education in academia. The innovated ERP training approach can improve the users’ knowledge in business processes and hands-on skills in mastering ERP system. It also can be instructed as educational material for IS students in universities. The purpose of the study is to examine the use of ERP simulation games via the ERPsim system to train the IS students in learning ERP implementation. The ERPsim is the business simulation game developed by ERPsim Lab at HEC Montréal, and the game is a real-life SAP (Systems Applications and Products) ERP system. The training uses the ERPsim system as the tool for the Internet-based simulation games and is designed as online student competitions during the class. The competitions involve student teams with the facilitation of instructor and put the students’ business skills to the test via intensive simulation games on a real-world SAP ERP system. The teams run the full business cycle of a manufacturing company while interacting with suppliers, vendors, and customers through sending and receiving orders, delivering products and completing the entire cash-to-cash cycle. To learn a range of business skills, student needs to adopt individual business role and make business decisions around the products and business processes. Based on the training experiences learned from rounds of business simulations, the findings show that learners have reduced risk in making mistakes that help learners build self-confidence in problem-solving. In addition, the learners’ reflections from their mistakes can speculate the root causes of the problems and further improve the efficiency of the training. ERP instructors teaching with the innovative approach report significant improvements in student evaluation, learner motivation, attendance, engagement as well as increased learner technology competency. The findings of the study can provide ERP instructors with guidelines to create an effective learning environment and can be transferred to a variety of other educational fields in which trainers are migrating towards a more active learning approach.

Keywords: business simulations, ERP implementation training, ERPsim, game-based learning, instructional strategy, training innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Wanvipa Thongborisute, Punyaphat Sirithanabadeekul, Pichit Suvanprakorn, Anan Jiraviroon

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Background: Acne vulgaris is one of the most common dermatologic problems, and can have a significant psychological and physical effect on patients. Propionibacterium acnes' roles in acne vulgaris involve the activation of toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), and toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) pathways. By activating these pathways, inflammatory events of acne lesions, comedogenesis and sebaceous lipogenesis can occur. Currently, there are several topical agents commonly use in treating acne vulgaris that are known to have an effect on TLRs, such as retinoic acid and adapalene, but these drugs still have some irritating effects. At present, there is an alarming increase in rate of bacterial resistance due to irrational used of antibiotics both orally and topically. For this reason, acne treatments should contain bioactive molecules targeting at the site of action for the most effective therapeutic effect with the least side effects. Sparganium stoloniferumis a Chinese aquatic herb containing a compound called Sparstolonin B (SsnB), which has been reported to selectively blocks Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-mediated inflammatory signals. Therefore, this topical TLR2 and TLR4 antagonist, in a form of Sparganium stoloniferum-derived compound containing SsnB, should give a benefit in reducing inflammation of acne vulgaris lesions and providing an alternative treatments for patients with this condition. Materials and Methods: The objectives of this randomized double blinded split faced placebo controlled trial is to study the safety and efficacy of the Sparganium stoloniferum-derived compound. 32 volunteered patients with mild to moderate degree of acne vulgaris according to global acne grading system were included in the study. After being informed and consented the subjects were given 2 topical treatments for acne vulgaris, one being topical 2.40% Sparganium stoloniferum extraction (containing Sparstolonin B) and the other, placebo. The subjects were asked to apply each treatment to either half of the face daily morning and night by randomization for 8 weeks, and come in for a weekly follow up. For each visit, the patients went through a procedure of lesion counting, including comedones, papules, nodules, pustules, and cystic lesions. Results: During 8 weeks of experimentation, the result shows a reduction in total lesions number between the placebo and the treatment side show statistical significance starting at week 4, where the 95% confidence interval begin to no longer overlap, and shows a trend of continuing to be further apart. The decrease in the amount of total lesions between week 0 and week 8 of the placebo side shows no statistical significant at P value >0.05. While the decrease in the amount of total lesions of acne vulgaris of the treatment side comparing between week 0 and week 8 shows statistical significant at P value <0.001. Conclusion: The data demonstrates that 2.40% Sparganium stoloniferum extraction (containing Sparstolonin B) is more effective in treating acne vulgaris comparing to topical placebo in treating acne vulgaris, by showing significant reduction in the total numbers of acne lesions. Therefore, this topical Sparganium stoloniferum extraction could become a potential alternative treatment for acne vulgaris.

Keywords: acne vulgaris, sparganium stoloniferum, sparstolonin B, toll-like receptor 2, toll-like receptor 4

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Henok Biruk Alemayehu, Kalkidan Berhane Tsegaye, Fozia Seid Ali, Nebiyat Feleke Adimassu, Getasew Alemu Mersha

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Background: Strabismus is a visual disorder where the eyes are misaligned and point in different directions. Untreated strabismus can lead to amblyopia, loss of binocular vision, and social stigma due to its appearance. Since it is assumed that knowledge is pertinent for early screening and prevention of strabismus, the main objective of this study was to assess knowledge and attitudes toward strabismus in Woreta town, Northwest Ethiopia. Providing data in this area is important for planning health policies. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was done in Woreta town from April–May 2020. The sample size was determined using a single population proportion formula by taking a 50% proportion of good knowledge, 95% confidence level, 5% margin of errors, and 10% non- response rate. Accordingly, the final computed sample size was 424. All four kebeles were included in the study. There were 42,595 people in total, with 39,684 adults and 9229 house holds. A sample fraction ’’k’’ was obtained by dividing the number of the household by the calculated sample size of 424. Systematic random sampling with proportional allocation was used to select the participating households with a sampling fraction (K) of 21 i.e. each household was approached in every 21 households included in the study. One individual was selected ran- domly from each household with more than one adult, using the lottery method to obtain a final sample size. The data was collected through a face-to-face interview with a pretested and semi-structured questionnaire which was translated from English to Amharic and back to English to maintain its consistency. Data were entered using epi-data version 3.1, then processed and analyzed via SPSS version- 20. Descriptive and analytical statistics were employed to summarize the data. A p-value of less than 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance. Result: A total of 401 individuals aged over 18 years participated, with a response rate of 94.5%. Of those who responded, 56.6% were males. Of all the participants, 36.9% were illiterate. The proportion of people with poor knowledge of strabismus was 45.1%. It was shown that 53.9% of the respondents had a favorable attitude. Older age, higher educational level, having a history of eye examination, and a having a family history of strabismus were significantly associated with good knowledge of strabismus. A higher educational level, older age, and hearing about strabismus were significantly associated with a favorable attitude toward strabismus. Conclusion and recommendation: The proportion of good knowledge and favorable attitude towards strabismus were lower than previously reported in Gondar City, Northwest Ethiopia. There is a need to provide health education and promotion campaigns on strabismus to the community: what strabismus is, its’ possible treatments and the need to bring children to the eye care center for early diagnosis and treatment. it advocate for prospective research endeavors to employ qualitative study design.Additionally, it suggest the exploration of studies that investigate causal-effect relationship.

Keywords: strabismus, knowledge, attitude, Woreta

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Authors: Tatyana Savchuk, Yelena Grinvald, Mohamed Ali, Ramune Sepetiene, Dinara Sadvakassova, Saniya Saussakova, Kuralay Zhangazieva, Dulat Imashpayev

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Introduction. The problem of viral hepatitis B (HBV) takes a vital place in the global health system. The existing risk of HBV transmission through blood transfusions is associated with transfusion of blood taken from infected individuals during the “serological window” period or from patients with latent HBV infection, the marker of which is anti-HBcore. In the absence of information about other markers of hepatitis B, the presence of anti-HBcore suggests that a person may be actively infected or has suffered hepatitis B in the past and has immunity. Aim. To study the risk factors influencing the positive anti-HBcore indicators among the donor population. Materials and Methods. The study was conducted in 2021 in the Scientific and Production Center of Transfusiology of the Ministry of Healthcare in Kazakhstan. The samples taken from blood donors were tested for anti-HBcore, by CLIA on the Architect i2000SR (ABBOTT). A special questionnaire was developed for the blood donors’ socio-demographic characteristics. Statistical analysis was conducted by the R software (version 4.1.1, USA, 2021). Results.5709 people aged 18 to 66 years were included in the study, the proportion of men and women was 68.17% and 31.83%, respectively. The average age of the participants was 35.7 years. A weighted multivariable mixed effects logistic regression analysis showed that age (p<0.001), ethnicity (p<0.05), and marital status (p<0.05) were statistically associated with anti-HBcore positivity. In particular, analysis adjusting for gender, nationality, education, marital status, family history of hepatitis, blood transfusion, injections, and surgical interventions, with a one-year increase in age (adjOR=1.06, 95%CI:1.05-1.07), showed an 6% growth in odds of having anti-HBcore positive results. Those who were russian ethnicity (adjOR=0.65, 95%CI:0.46-0.93) and representatives of other nationality groups (adjOR=0.56, 95%CI:0.37-0.85) had lower odds of having anti-HBcore when compared to Kazakhs when controlling for other covariant variables. Among singles, the odds of having a positive anti-HBcore were lower by 29% (adjOR = 0.71, 95%CI:0.57-0.89) compared to married participants when adjusting for other variables. Conclusions.Kazakhstan is one of the countries with medium endemicity of HBV prevalence (2%-7%). Results of the study demonstrated the possibility to form a profile of risk factors (age, nationality, marital status). Taking into account the data, it is recommended to increase attention to donor questionnaires by adding leading questions and to improve preventive measures to prevent HBV. Funding. This research was supported by a grant from Abbott Laboratories.

Keywords: anti-HBcore, blood donor, donation, hepatitis B virus, occult hepatitis

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Authors: Salima Bijapuri, Shweta Bhatbolan, Sejalben Patel

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Ergonomics concerns the fitting of the environment and the equipment to the worker. Ergonomic principles can be employed in different dimensions of the industrial sector. Participation of all the stakeholders is the key to the formulation of a multifaceted and comprehensive approach to lessen the burden of occupational hazards. Taking responsibility for one’s own work activities by acquiring sufficient knowledge and potential to influence the practices and outcomes is the basis of participatory ergonomics and even hastens the process to identify workplace hazards. The study was aimed to check how participatory ergonomics can be effective in the management of work-related musculoskeletal disorders. Method: A mega kitchen was identified in a twin city of Karnataka, India. Consent was taken, and the screening of workers was done using observation methods. Kitchen work was structured to include different tasks, which included preparation, cooking, distributing, and serving food, packing food to be delivered to schools, dishwashing, cleaning and maintenance of kitchen and equipment, and receiving and storing raw material. Total 100 workers attended the education session on participatory ergonomics and its role in implementing the correct ergonomic practices, thus preventing WRMSDs. Demographic details and baseline data on related musculoskeletal pain and discomfort were collected using the Nordic pain questionnaire and VAS score pre- and post-study. Monthly visits were made, and the education sessions were reiterated on each visit, thus reminding, correcting, and problem-solving of each worker. After 9 months with a total of 4 such education session, the post education data was collected. The software SPSS 20 was used to analyse the collected data. Results: The majority of them (78%), depending on the availability and feasibility, participated in the intervention workshops were arranged four times. The average age of the participants was 39 years. The percentage of female participants was 79.49%, and 20.51% of participants comprised of males. The Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ) showed that knee pain was the most commonly reported complaint (62%) from the last 12 months with a mean VAS of 6.27, followed by low back pain. Post intervention, the mean VAS Score was reduced significantly to 2.38. The comparison of pre-post scores was made using Wilcoxon matched pairs test. Upon enquiring, it was found that, the participants learned the importance of applying ergonomics at their workplace which inturn was beneficial for them to handle any problems arising at their workplace on their own with self confidence. Conclusion: The participatory ergonomics proved effective with workers of mega kitchen, and it is a feasible and practical approach. The advantage of the given study area was that it had a sophisticated and ergonomically designed workstation; thus it was the lack of education and practical knowledge to use these stations was of utmost need. There was a significant reduction in VAS scores with the implementation of changes in the working style, and the knowledge of ergonomics helped to decrease physical load and improve musculoskeletal health.

Keywords: ergonomic awareness session, mega kitchen, participatory ergonomics, work related musculoskeletal disorders

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Authors: Kever Gomes, Rosana Martins

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The use of environmental indicators is today an important strategy for analyzing the sustainability of agricultural systems. Despite of the considerable importance of family agriculture for Brazilian economy, sustainable agricultural practices are still weakly known, and the known ones, underused. Currently, economic aspects of the relationship between man and nature lead to the destruction of natural ecosystems, which justifies the urgent need for dissemination and usage of new sustainable production techniques. The study shows the agro-social and social-cultural trajectory of the farmers and hypothesis are advanced on what would imply the adoption of agroforestry systems in family agriculture. This study aimed to investigate aspects related to the perception of sustainable agriculture, especially on agroforestry systems in farms of farmers from Distrito Federal-Brazil. Agro-social characteristics of farmers were systematized considering their perceptions about agroforestry systems for the preparation of proposal for a program of Environmental Services Payment, intended for families who are involved in the various activities of home gardens. This study used qualitative methodological approaches of quantitative research, using descriptive exploratory research. To get the necessary elements for the intended analysis, interviews were conducted at 40 heads of households of which 15 were men and 25 women. The results were analyzed using descriptive statistics, having been considered in the analysis the frequency, consistency, coherence and originality of responses. It was found that the lack of financial resources and lack of technical assistance are limiting factors for the dissemination and use of sustainable agricultural practices. Considering the great number of species found for the main categories of use, it can be inferred that the home gardens play important functions for the interviewed families, contributing for the food and medicine production destined for the consumption by the families themselves, and also playing an important esthetic function thanks to the variety of their ornamental plants. The wealth of these home gardens may be related to the rural origin and to the culture of the owners, who still keep a cultivation tradition. It was found that the products obtained from the home gardens contributed for the diet’s variety of the informants, representing a promising potential for the improvement of the population alimentation. The study reached the conclusion over the need to motivate the interest of these farmers to seek information and resources to enable the implementation of Agroforestry projects, including the recovery of areas in their properties, even those distinct from their backyards. The study shows the agro-social and social-cultural trajectory of the farmers and hypothesis are advanced on what would imply the adoption of agroforestry systems in family agriculture.

Keywords: agro-biodiversity, natural conservation, silviculture, urban agriculture

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Authors: Tatjana Stefanovic Stanojevic, Milica Tosic Radev, Aleksandra Bogdanovic

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Depression is considered to be a leading cause of death and disability in the female population, and that is the reason why understanding the dynamics of the onset of depressive symptomatology is important. A review of the literature indicates the relationship between depressive symptoms and insecure attachment patterns, but very few studies have examined the mechanism underlying this relation. The aim of the study was to examine the pathway from the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptomatology, as well as to test the mediation effect of mentalization, social anxiety and rumination in this relationship using a serial mediation model. The research was carried out on a geographical cluster sample from the general population of Serbia included within the project ‘Indicators and models of family and work roles harmonization’ funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. This research was carried out on a subsample of 791 working-age female adults from 37 urban and rural locations distributed through 20 administrative districts of Serbia. The respondents filled in a battery of instruments, including Relationship Questionnaire - Clinical Version (RQ - CV), The Mentalization Scale (MentS), Scale of Social Anxiety (SA), Patient Ruminative Thought Style Questionnaire (RTSQ), Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). The results confirm our assumption that the total indirect effect of the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms is significant across all mediators separately. More importantly, this effect is still present in a model with a sequential mediator relationship, where social anxiety, rumination, and mentalization were perceived as serial mediators of a relationship between preoccupied attachment and depressive symptoms (estimated indirect effect=0.004, boot-strapped 95% CI=0.002 to 0.007). Our findings suggest that there is a significant specific indirect effect of the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms, occurring through mentalization, social anxiety and rumination, indicating that preoccupied attachment cause decrease of a self related mentalization, which in turn causes increasing of social anxiety and rumination, concluding in depressive symptoms as a final consequence. The finding that the path from the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms is typical in women is understandable from the perspective of both evolutionary and culturally conditioned gender differences. The practical implications of the study are reflected in the recommendations for the prevention and forehand psychotherapy response among preoccupied women with depressive symptomatology. Treatment of this specific group of depressed patients should be focused on strengthening mentalization, learning to accept and to understand herself better, reducing anxiety in situations where mistakes are visible to others, and replacing the rumination strategy with more constructive coping strategies.

Keywords: preoccupied attachment, depression, serial mediation model, mentalization, rumination

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Obesity, a disease associated with a low-grade inflammation, is a risk factor for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS). So far, MetS risk factors such as parameters related to glucose and lipid metabolisms as well as blood pressure were considered for the evaluation of this disease. There are still some ambiguities related to the characteristic features of MetS observed particularly in pediatric population. Hormonal imbalance is also important, and quite a lot information exists about the behaviour of some hormones in adults. However, the hormonal profiles in pediatric metabolism have not been cleared yet. The aim of this study is to investigate the profiles of cortisol, insulin, and thyroid hormones in children with MetS. The study population was composed of morbid obese (MO) children without (Group 1) and with (Group 2) MetS components. WHO BMI-for age and sex percentiles were used for the classification of obesity. The values above 99 percentile were defined as morbid obesity. Components of MetS (central obesity, glucose intolerance, high blood pressure, high triacylglycerol levels, low levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol) were determined. Anthropometric measurements were performed. Ratios as well as obesity indices were calculated. Insulin, cortisol, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free T₃ and free T₄ analyses were performed by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Data were evaluated by statistical package for social sciences program. p<0.05 was accepted as the degree for statistical significance. The mean ages±SD values of Group 1 and Group 2 were 9.9±3.1 years and 10.8±3.2 years, respectively. Body mass index (BMI) values were calculated as 27.4±5.9 kg/m² and 30.6±8.1 kg/m², successively. There were no statistically significant differences between the ages and BMI values of the groups. Insulin levels were statistically significantly increased in MetS in comparison with the levels measured in MO children. There was not any difference between MO children and those with MetS in terms of cortisol, T₃, T₄ and TSH. However, T₄ levels were positively correlated with cortisol and negatively correlated with insulin. None of these correlations were observed in MO children. Cortisol levels in both MO as well as MetS group were significantly correlated. Cortisol, insulin, and thyroid hormones are essential for life. Cortisol, called the control system for hormones, orchestrates the performance of other key hormones. It seems to establish a connection between hormone imbalance and inflammation. During an inflammatory state, more cortisol is produced to fight inflammation. High cortisol levels prevent the conversion of the inactive form of the thyroid hormone T₄ into active form T₃. Insulin is reduced due to low thyroid hormone. T₃, which is essential for blood sugar control- requires cortisol levels within the normal range. Positive association of T₄ with cortisol and negative association of it with insulin are the indicators of such a delicate balance among these hormones also in children with MetS.

Keywords: children, cortisol, insulin, metabolic syndrome, thyroid hormones

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Salima R. Rajwani, Tazeen Ali, Rubina Barolia, Yasmin Parpio, Nasreen Alwani, Salima B. Virani

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Introduction: Nurses and physicians have a critical role in initiating lifesaving interventions during cardiac arrest. It is important that timely delivery of high quality Cardio Pulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) with advanced resuscitation skills and management of cardiac arrhythmias is a key dimension of code during cardiac arrest. It will decrease the chances of patient survival if the healthcare professionals are unable to initiate CPR timely. Moreover, traditional training will not prepare physicians and nurses at a competent level and their knowledge level declines over a period of time. In this regard, simulation training has been proven to be effective in promoting resuscitation skills. Simulation teaching learning strategy improves knowledge level, and skills performance during resuscitation through experiential learning without compromising patient safety in real clinical situations. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of simulation training in Advanced Cardiac Life Support Courses by using the selfefficacy tool. Methods: The study design is a quantitative research design and non-randomized quasi-experimental study design. The study examined the effectiveness of simulation through self-efficacy in two instructional methods; one is Medium Fidelity Simulation (MFS) and second is Traditional Training Method (TTM). The sample size was 220. Data was compiled by using the SPSS tool. The standardized simulation based training increases self-efficacy, knowledge, and skills and improves the management of patients in actual resuscitation. Results: 153 students participated in study; CG: n = 77 and EG: n = 77. The comparison was done between arms in pre and post-test. (F value was 1.69, p value is <0.195 and df was 1). There was no significant difference between arms in the pre and post-test. The interaction between arms was observed and there was no significant difference in interaction between arms in the pre and post-test. (F value was 0.298, p value is <0.586 and df is 1. However, the results showed self-efficacy scores were significantly higher within experimental group in post-test in advanced cardiac life support resuscitation courses as compared to Traditional Training Method (TTM) and had overall (p <0.0001) and F value was 143.316 (mean score was 45.01 and SD was 9.29) verses pre-test result showed (mean score was 31.15 and SD was 12.76) as compared to TTM in post-test (mean score was 29.68 and SD was 14.12) verses pre-test result showed (mean score was 42.33 and SD was 11.39). Conclusion: The standardized simulation-based training was conducted in the safe learning environment in Advanced Cardiac Life Suport Courses and physicians and nurses benefited from self-confidence, early identification of life-threatening scenarios, early initiation of CPR, and provides high-quality CPR, timely administration of medication and defibrillation, appropriate airway management, rhythm analysis and interpretation, and Return of Spontaneous Circulation (ROSC), team dynamics, debriefing, and teaching and learning strategies that will improve the patient survival in actual resuscitation.

Keywords: advanced cardiac life support, cardio pulmonary resuscitation, return of spontaneous circulation, simulation

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Authors: Olena Kavats, Dmitry Khramov, Kateryna Sergieieva, Vladimir Vasyliev, Iurii Kavats

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Geoinformation technologies of space agromonitoring are a means of operative decision making support in the tasks of managing the agricultural sector of the economy. Existing technologies use satellite images in the optical range of electromagnetic spectrum. Time series of optical images often contain gaps due to the presence of clouds and haze. A geoinformation technology is created. It allows to fill gaps in time series of optical images (Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, PROBA-V, MODIS) with radar survey data (Sentinel-1) and use information about agrometeorological conditions of the growing season for individual monitoring years. The technology allows to perform crop classification and mapping for spring-summer (winter and spring crops) and autumn-winter (winter crops) periods of vegetation, monitoring the dynamics of crop state seasonal changes, crop yield forecasting. Crop classification is based on supervised classification algorithms, takes into account the peculiarities of crop growth at different vegetation stages (dates of sowing, emergence, active vegetation, and harvesting) and agriculture land state characteristics (row spacing, seedling density, etc.). A catalog of samples of the main agricultural crops (Ukraine) is created and crop spectral signatures are calculated with the preliminary removal of row spacing, cloud cover, and cloud shadows in order to construct time series of crop growth characteristics. The obtained data is used in grain crop growth tracking and in timely detection of growth trends deviations from reference samples of a given crop for a selected date. Statistical models of crop yield forecast are created in the forms of linear and nonlinear interconnections between crop yield indicators and crop state characteristics (temperature, precipitation, vegetation indices, etc.). Predicted values of grain crop yield are evaluated with an accuracy up to 95%. The developed technology was used for agricultural areas monitoring in a number of Great Britain and Ukraine regions using EOS Crop Monitoring Platform (https://crop-monitoring.eos.com). The obtained results allow to conclude that joint use of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images improve separation of winter crops (rapeseed, wheat, barley) in the early stages of vegetation (October-December). It allows to separate successfully the soybean, corn, and sunflower sowing areas that are quite similar in their spectral characteristics.

Keywords: geoinformation technology, crop classification, crop yield prediction, agricultural monitoring, EOS Crop Monitoring Platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: Shiau-Fang Chao, Yu-Chih Chen

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Owing to physical limitations and restrained lifestyle, older long-term care (LTC) residents are more likely to be affected by their environment than their community-dwelling counterparts. They also participate fewer activities and experience worse mental health than healthy older adults. This study adopts the ICF model to determine the extent to which the clustered patterns of LTC environment and activity participation are associated with older residents’ mental health. Method: Data were collected from a stratified equal probability sample of 634 older residents in 155 LTC institutions in Taiwan. Latent profile analysis (LPA) and latent class analysis (LCA) were conducted to explore the profiles for environment and activity participation. Multilevel modeling was performed to elucidate the relationships among environment profiles, activity profiles, and mental health. Results: LPA identified three mutually exclusive environment profiles (Low-, Moderate-, and High-Support Environment) based on the physical, social, and attitudinal environmental domains, consolidated from 12 environmental measures. LCA constructed two distinct activity profiles (Low- and High-Activity Participation) across seven activity domains (outdoor, volunteer-led leisure, spiritual, household chores, interpersonal exchange, social, and sedentary activity) that were factored from 20 activities. Compared to the Low-Support Environment class, older adults in the Moderate- and High-Support Environment classes had better mental health. Older residents in the Moderate- and High-Support Environment classes were more likely to be in the “High Activity” class, which in turn, exhibited better mental health. Conclusion: This study advances the current knowledge through rigorous methods and study design. The study findings lead to several conclusions. First, this study supports the use of ICF framework to institutionalized older individuals with functional limitations and demonstrates that both measures of environment and activity participation can be refined from multiple indicators. Second, environmental measures that encompass the physical, social, and attitudinal domains would provide a more comprehensive assessment on the place where an older individual embeds. Third, simply counting activities in which an older individual participates or considering a certain type of activity may not capture his or her way of life. Practitioners should not only focus on group or leisure activities within the institutions; rather, more efforts should be made to consider residents’ preferences for everyday life and support their remaining ability by encouraging continuous participation in activities they still willing and capable to perform. Fourth, environment and activity participation are modifiable factors which have greater potential to strengthen older LTC residents’ mental health, and activity participation should be considered in the link between environment and mental health. A combination of enhanced physical, social, and attitudinal environments, and continual engagement in various activities may optimize older LTC residents’ mental health.

Keywords: activity, environment, mental health, older LTC residents

Procedia PDF Downloads 164