Search results for: sales forecasting of innovations

Authors: Umit Cali

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The integration of intermittent energy sources like wind farms into the electricity grid has become an important challenge for the utilization and control of electric power systems, because of the fluctuating behaviour of wind power generation. Wind power predictions improve the economic and technical integration of large amounts of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Trading, balancing, grid operation, controllability and safety issues increase the importance of predicting power output from wind power operators. Therefore, wind power forecasting systems have to be integrated into the monitoring and control systems of the transmission system operator (TSO) and wind farm operators/traders. The wind forecasts are relatively precise for the time period of only a few hours, and, therefore, relevant with regard to Spot and Intraday markets. In this work predictive data mining techniques are applied to identify a statistical and neural network model or set of models that can be used to predict wind power output of large onshore and offshore wind farms. These advanced data analytic methods helps us to amalgamate the information in very large meteorological, oceanographic and SCADA data sets into useful information and manageable systems. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. This study is also dedicated to an in-depth consideration of issues such as the comparison of day ahead and the short-term wind power forecasting results, determination of the accuracy of the wind power prediction and the evaluation of the energy economic and technical benefits of wind power forecasting.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, wind power, forecasting, data mining, big data, artificial intelligence, energy economics, power trading, power grids

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Authors: Etienne Gaborit, Dorothy Durnford, Daniel Deacu, Marco Carrera, Nathalie Gauthier, Camille Garnaud, Vincent Fortin

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A new experimental streamflow forecasting system was recently implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP). It relies on CaLDAS (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) for the assimilation of surface variables, and on a surface prediction system that feeds a routing component. The surface energy and water budgets are simulated with the SVS (Soil, Vegetation, and Snow) Land-Surface Scheme (LSS) at 2.5-km grid spacing over Canada. The routing component is based on the Watroute routing scheme at 1-km grid spacing for the Great Lakes and Nelson River watersheds. The system is run in two distinct phases: an analysis part and a forecast part. During the analysis part, CaLDAS outputs are used to force the routing system, which performs streamflow assimilation. In forecast mode, the surface component is forced with the Canadian GEM atmospheric forecasts and is initialized with a CaLDAS analysis. Streamflow performances of this new system are presented over 2019. Performances are compared to the current ECCC’s operational streamflow forecasting system, which is different from the new experimental system in many aspects. These new streamflow forecasts are also compared to persistence. Overall, the new streamflow forecasting system presents promising results, highlighting the need for an elaborated assimilation phase before performing the forecasts. However, the system is still experimental and is continuously being improved. Some major recent improvements are presented here and include, for example, the assimilation of snow cover data from remote sensing, a backward propagation of assimilated flow observations, a new numerical scheme for the routing component, and a new reservoir model.

Keywords: assimilation system, distributed physical model, offline hydro-meteorological chain, short-term streamflow forecasts

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Authors: Chunhua Liao, Jinfei Wang, Bo Shan, Yang Song, Yongjun He, Taifeng Dong

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Winter wheat is one of the main crops in Canada. Forecasting of within-field variability of yield in winter wheat at the early stages is essential for precision farming. However, the crop yield modelling based on high spatial resolution satellite data is generally affected by the lack of continuous satellite observations, resulting in reducing the generalization ability of the models and increasing the difficulty of crop yield forecasting at the early stages. In this study, the correlations between Sentinel-2 data (vegetation indices and reflectance) and yield data collected by combine harvester were investigated and a generalized multivariate linear regression (MLR) model was built and tested with data acquired in different years. It was found that the four-band reflectance (blue, green, red, near-infrared) performed better than their vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, WDRVI and OSAVI) in wheat yield prediction. The optimum phenological stage for wheat yield prediction with highest accuracy was at the growing stages from the end of the flowering to the beginning of the filling stage. The best MLR model was therefore built to predict wheat yield before harvest using Sentinel-2 data acquired at the end of the flowering stage. Further, to improve the ability of the yield prediction at the early stages, three simple unsupervised domain adaptation (DA) methods were adopted to transform the reflectance data at the early stages to the optimum phenological stage. The winter wheat yield prediction using multiple vegetation indices showed higher accuracy than using single vegetation index. The optimum stage for winter wheat yield forecasting varied with different fields when using vegetation indices, while it was consistent when using multispectral reflectance and the optimum stage for winter wheat yield prediction was at the end of flowering stage. The average testing RMSE of the MLR model at the end of the flowering stage was 604.48 kg/ha. Near the booting stage, the average testing RMSE of yield prediction using the best MLR was reduced to 799.18 kg/ha when applying the mean matching domain adaptation approach to transform the data to the target domain (at the end of the flowering) compared to that using the original data based on the models developed at the booting stage directly (“MLR at the early stage”) (RMSE =1140.64 kg/ha). This study demonstrated that the simple mean matching (MM) performed better than other DA methods and it was found that “DA then MLR at the optimum stage” performed better than “MLR directly at the early stages” for winter wheat yield forecasting at the early stages. The results indicated that the DA had a great potential in near real-time crop yield forecasting at the early stages. This study indicated that the simple domain adaptation methods had a great potential in crop yield prediction at the early stages using remote sensing data.

Keywords: wheat yield prediction, domain adaptation, Sentinel-2, within-field scale

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Authors: Karthikeyan Srinivasan, Ranjana Singh, Yatin Talwar, Karthikeyan Srinivasan

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Healthcare services play a vital role in the life of human being. The Setup of Hospital varies in wide spectrum of cost, technology, and access. Hospital’s of Public sector satisfies need of a common man to poorer, which can differ at private owned hospitals on cost and treatment. Patient assessing hospital frequently assumes spending time at the hospital is miserable and not aware of what is happening around them. Mostly they are queued up round the clock waiting to be admitted on hospital beds. The idea here is to highlight the role in admitting patient population of Outdoor as well as Emergency entering the Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh with available hospital beds. This study emphasizes the trend forecasting and acquiring beds needed. The conception “if patient population increases’ likewise increasing hospital beds advertently perceived. If tend to increase the hospital beds, thereby exploring budget, Manpower, space, and infrastructure make compulsion. This survey ideally draws out planning and forecasting beds to cater patient population in and around neighboring state of Chandigarh for admission at territory healthcare and research institute on available hospital beds. Executing healthcare services for growing population needs to know Roemer’s law indicating "in an insured population, a hospital bed built is a filled bed".

Keywords: admissions, average length of stay, bed days, hospital beds, occupancy rates

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

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Authors: Sabri Serkan Güllüoğlu

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Analysis can be defined as the process of gathering, recording and researching data related to products and services, in order to learn something. But for marketers, analyses are not only used for learning but also an essential and critical part of the business, because this allows companies to offer products or services which are focused and well targeted. Market analysis also identify market trends, demographics, customer’s buying habits and important information on the competition. Data mining is used instead of traditional research, because it extracts predictive information about customer and sales from large databases. In contrast to traditional research, data mining relies on information that is already available. Simply the goal is to improve the efficiency of supermarkets. In this study, the purpose is to find dependency on products. For instance, which items are bought together, using association rules in data mining. Moreover, this information will be used for improving the profitability of customers such as increasing shopping time and sales of fewer sold items.

Keywords: data mining, association rule mining, market basket analysis, purchasing

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Authors: Sema Kayapinar, Ismail Karaoglan, Turan Paksoy, Hadi Gokcen

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Green Supply Chain Management is gaining growing interest among researchers and supply chain management. The concept of Green Supply Chain Management is to integrate environmental thinking into the Supply Chain Management. It is the systematic concept emphasis on environmental problems such as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, recycling end of life products, generation of solid and hazardous waste. This study is to present a green supply chain network model integrated Internet of Things applications. Internet of Things provides to get precise and accurate information of end-of-life product with sensors and systems devices. The forward direction consists of suppliers, plants, distributions centres and sales and collect centres while, the reverse flow includes the sales and collects centres, disassembled centre, recycling and disposal centre. The sales and collection centre sells the new products are transhipped from factory via distribution centre and also receive the end-of life product according their value level. We describe green logistics activities by presenting specific examples including “recycling of the returned products and “reduction of CO2 gas emissions”. The different transportation choices are illustrated between echelons according to their CO2 gas emissions. This problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model to solve the green supply chain problems which are emerged from the environmental awareness and responsibilities. This model is solved by using Gams package program. Numerical examples are suggested to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.

Keywords: green supply chain optimization, internet of things, greenhouse gas emission, recycling

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Authors: Sruthi Kannan

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The ongoing covid pandemic has accelerated digital transformation like never before. The physical barriers brought in as a result of the pandemic are being bridged by digital alternatives. While basic collaborative activities like voice, video calling, screen sharing have been replicated in these alternatives, there are several others that require a more intimate setup. Pitching, showcasing, and providing demonstrations are an integral part of selling strategies for startups. Traditionally these have been in-person engagements, enabling a depth of understanding of the startups’ offerings. In the new normal scenario of virtual-only connects, startups are feeling the brunt of the lack of in-person connections with potential customers and investors. This poster demonstrates how a virtual reality platform has been conceptualized and custom-built for startups to engage with their stakeholders and redefine their selling strategies. This virtual reality platform is intended to provide an immersive experience for startup showcases and offers the nearest possible alternative to physical meetings for the startup ecosystem, thereby opening newer frontiers for entrepreneurial collaborations.

Keywords: collaboration, sales, startups, strategy, virtual reality

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Authors: Eti Mizrahi, Gizem İntepe

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The geographical location of Turkey that stretches from Asia to Europe and Russia to Africa makes it an important logistics hub in the region. Although logistics is a developing sector in Turkey, the stock market representation is still low with only two companies listed in Turkey’s stock exchange since 2010. In this paper, we use the daily values of these two listed stocks as a benchmark for the logistics sector. After modeling logistics stock prices, an empirical examination is conducted between the existing logistics indices and these stock prices. The paper investigates whether the measures of logistics stocks are correlated with newly available logistics indices. It also shows the reflection of the economic activity in the logistics sector on the stock exchange market. The results presented in this paper are the first analysis of the behavior of logistics indices and logistics stock prices for Turkey.

Keywords: forecasting, logistic stock exchange, modeling, Africa

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Authors: M. C. Theong, F. L. Ang, G. J. Muga

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Growth of firms is influenced by environmental changes such as the global and national economy. On the other hand, it indicates the economic situation of a country. Therefore, it is imperative for firms to be sensitive to changes and to stay competitive and remain compatible with the environment. The Malaysian construction industry is prone to environmental changes due to its complexity. In order to survive in the construction industry, focus on the development of the firms themselves to achieve long term their long term goals is vital besides maximizing profits. The objective of this paper is to measure growth of the public listed construction companies in Malaysia and to investigate the development of the companies with highest, moderate and lowest growth. Growth is measured based on the companies' sales between year 2008 and 2012 collected via secondary data collection method. Findings show that the highest average growth created is 235.20 % while the lowest average growth is -22.75%. The construction companies remained active in the construction industry by implementing different sets of strategies and involving in several types of construction projects.

Keywords: growth, Malaysian construction industry, public listed companies, sales

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

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Authors: Hannah S. Waldron

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Background: The government has proposed sugar reduction targets in an effort to tackle childhood obesity, focussing on those of low socioeconomic status (SES). Supermarkets are a key location for reducing the amount of sugar purchased, but success so far in this environment has been limited. Building on previous research, this study will assess the impact of restricting the availability of higher sugar biscuits as a strategy to encourage lower sugar biscuit purchasing, and whether the effects vary by customer SES. Method: 14 supermarket convenience stores were divided between control (n=7) and intervention (n=7) groups. In the intervention stores, biscuits with sugar above the government’s target (26.2g/100g) were removed from sale and replaced with lower sugar ( < 26.2g sugar/100g) alternatives. Sales and customer demographic information were collected using loyalty card data and point-of-sale transaction data for 8-weeks pre and post the intervention for lower sugar biscuits, total biscuits, alternative higher sugar products, and all products. Results were analysed using three-way and two-way mixed ANOVAs. Results: The intervention resulted in a significant increase in lower sugar biscuit purchasing (p < 0.001) and a significant decline in overall biscuit sales (p < 0.001) between the time periods compared to control stores. Sales of higher sugar products and all products increased significantly between the two time periods in both the intervention and control stores (p < 0.05). SES showed no significant effect on any of the reported outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Restricting the availability of higher sugar products may be a successful strategy for encouraging lower sugar purchasing across all SES groups. However, larger-scale interventions are required in additional categories to assess the long term implications for both consumers and retailers.

Keywords: biscuits, nudging, sugar, supermarket

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Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Xiaohan Gu

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China is perceived as one of the most politically corrupt countries in the world. The 2021 Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index China (RPC) ranks the country in 66th place out of 180 countries in the Index, where the 180 countries are perceived to have the most corrupt public sector. This paper proposes a theory on the impact of corruption on the consumption of luxury goods. We test the theory and evaluate the effectiveness of China’s anti-corruption campaign in 2012 by conducting a difference-in-differences analysis of product-city-level alcohol and cigarette consumption from 2013 to 2022. We find that the campaign increased sales of middle-end baijiu and cigarettes but decreased sales of luxury baijiu and cigarettes, contrasting with the trend for low-end products. This substitution pattern may be attributable to decreased public spending on luxury goods. This substitution pattern is moderated by officials’ wages and anti-corruption efforts, which supports the theoretical predictions.

Keywords: substitution effect, baijiu, corruption, anti-corruption, chinese political connection

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Authors: Svetlana Gudkova

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The Internet of Things experiences a rapid growth bringing inevitable changes into many spheres of human activities. As the Internet has changed the social and business landscape, IoT as its extension, can bring much more profound changes in economic value creation and competitiveness of the economies. It has been already recognized as the next industrial revolution. However, the development of IoT is in a great extent stimulated by the entrepreneurial activity. To expand and reach its full potential it requires proactive entrepreneurs, who explore the potential and create innovative ideas pushing the boundaries of IoT technologies' application further. The goal of the research is to analyze, how entrepreneurs utilize the opportunities created by IoT and how do they stimulate the development of IoT through discovering of new ways of generating economic value and creating opportunities, which attract other entrepreneurs. The qualitative research methods have been applied to prepare the case studies. Entrepreneurs are recognized as an engine of economic growth. They introduce innovative products and services into the market through the creation of a new combination of the existing resources and utilizing new knowledge. Entrepreneurs not only create economic value but what is more important, they challenge the existing business models and invent new ways of value creation. Through identification and exploitation of entrepreneurial opportunities, they create new opportunities for other entrepreneurs. It makes the industry more attractive to other profit/innovation-driven start-ups. IoT creates numerous opportunities for entrepreneurs in the different industries. Smart cities, healthcare, manufacturing, retail, agriculture, smart vehicles and smart buildings benefit a lot from IoT-based breakthrough innovations introduced by entrepreneurs. They reinvented successfully the business models and created new entrepreneurial opportunities for other start-ups to introduce next innovations.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, internet of things, breakthrough innovations, start-ups

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Authors: Hilde Heim

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The textile industry is known for its swift adoption of innovations in fashion technology (Fash-Tech). The industry is also known for its harmful effects on the environment. Opportunely, Fash-Tech is expected to facilitate the turn towards more sustainable practice. However, although several technologies have the potential for advancing sustainable practice, many industry players, whether large or small, are confused and misinformed about Fash-Tech adoption, application, and impact. Through a visual poster presentation, this project aims to map global fashion innovations along the supply chain from fibre production to waste management, thus providing a clearer picture of numbers, scale, and adoption. While the project aims to identify Fash-Tech effectiveness in reaching sustainability goals, it also identifies areas of congestion as well as insufficiency in the accessibility of Fash-Tech. This project intends to help inform future decisions in business, investment, and policy for the advancement of sustainable practice.

Keywords: fashion technology, sustainability, supply chain, enterprise management

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Authors: Slim Chokri

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Load forecasting is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: neural network, load forecasting, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression

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Authors: Asifa Amara, Prachi Singh, Kanishka, Debargho Pathak, Akshat Kumar, Jayakumar Eravelly

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Today's generation is totally dependent on technology that uses data as its fuel. The present study is all about innovations and developments in data science and gives an idea about how efficiently to use the data provided. This study will help to understand the core concepts of data science. The concept of artificial intelligence was introduced by Alan Turing in which the main principle was to create an artificial system that can run independently of human-given programs and can function with the help of analyzing data to understand the requirements of the users. Data science comprises business understanding, analyzing data, ethical concerns, understanding programming languages, various fields and sources of data, skills, etc. The usage of data science has evolved over the years. In this review article, we have covered a part of data science, i.e., machine learning. Machine learning uses data science for its work. Machines learn through their experience, which helps them to do any work more efficiently. This article includes a comparative study image between human understanding and machine understanding, advantages, applications, and real-time examples of machine learning. Data science is an important game changer in the life of human beings. Since the advent of data science, we have found its benefits and how it leads to a better understanding of people, and how it cherishes individual needs. It has improved business strategies, services provided by them, forecasting, the ability to attend sustainable developments, etc. This study also focuses on a better understanding of data science which will help us to create a better world.

Keywords: data science, machine learning, data analytics, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Vithaya Intraphimol

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between market orientation and business performance through innovations that include product innovation and process innovation. Auto parts and accessories companies in Thailand were used as sample for this investigation. Survey research with structured questionnaire was used as the key instrument in collecting the data. The structural equation modeling (SEM) was assigned test the hypotheses. The sample size in this study requires the minimum sample size of 200. The result found that competitor orientation, and interfunctional coordination has an effect on product innovation. Moreover, interfunctional coordination has an effect on process innovation, and return on asset. This indicates that within- firm coordination has crucial to firms’ performances. The implication for practice, firms should support interfunctional coordination that members of different functional areas of an organization communicate and work together for the creation of value to target buyers they may have better profitability.

Keywords: auto parts industry, business performance, innovations, market orientation

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: Milton Ayoki, Edward Bbaale

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This paper analyses the relationship between innovation and employment at firm level with the objective of understanding the contribution of the different innovation strategies in fostering employment growth in Uganda. We use National Innovation Survey (micro-data of 705 Ugandan firms) for the period 2011-2014 and follow closely Harrison et al. (2014) structured approach, and relate employment growth to process innovations and to the growth of sales separately due to innovative and unchanged products. We find positive effects of product innovation on employment at firm level, while process innovation has no discernable impact on employment. Although there is evidence to suggest displacement of labour in some cases where firms only introduce new process, this effect is compensated by growth in employment from new products, which for most firms are introduced simultaneously with new process. Results suggest that source of innovation as well as size of innovating firms or end users of innovation matter for job growth. Innovation that develops from within the firm itself (user) and involving larger firms has greater impact on employment than that developed from outside or coming from within smaller firms. In addition, innovative firms are one and half times more likely to survive in the innovation driven economy environment than those that do not innovate. These results have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders in innovation ecosystem. Supporting policies need to be correctly tailored since the impacts depend on the innovation strategy (type) and characteristics and sector of the innovative firms (small, large, industry, etc.). Policies to spur investment, particularly in innovative sectors and firms with high growth potential would have long lasting effects on job creation. JEL Classification: D24, J0, J20, L20, O30.

Keywords: employment, process innovation, product innovation, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

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Authors: Geoff Skinner, Ilung Pranata

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The advancement of ICT innovations provides us with a comfortable and convenient modern lifestyle. However, this modern easy lifestyle is proving to have some serious health consequences. Such technological advancements that have dramatically increased ones time in front of screens have been a contributing factor to increasing rates of obesity. In particular the youth obesity issue has gained more and more attention from researchers and health institutions around the world. Although technology innovations may lead to a sedate modern life, they also have a potential to solve the obesity issue in children. This paper provides a review of the issues in child obesity and the potential of active video games to mitigate these issues. Additionally, the paper also discusses the key requirements to develop an active video game that hopes to help combat child obesity through motivating youth to exergame. A framework is introduced to meet the requirements, from which a prototype was implemented. Discussion of the simulation and testing that were performed to verify the attainment of objectives is also detailed.

Keywords: e-video games, exergaming, health informatics, human computer interaction

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Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

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As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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Authors: Sareh Enjavi

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In recent years, the field of visual communication design has seen a significant shift in the way that art is created and consumed, with the advent of new technologies like virtual reality, augmented reality, and artificial intelligence. This paper explores the ways in which technology is changing the landscape of visual communication design, and how designers are incorporating new technological tools into their artistic practices. The primary objective of this research paper is to investigate the ways in which technology is influencing the creative process of designers and artists in the field of visual communication design. The paper also aims to examine the challenges and limitations that arise from the intersection of art and technology in visual communication design, and to identify strategies for overcoming these challenges. Drawing on examples from a range of fields, including advertising, fine art, and digital media, this paper highlights the exciting innovations that are emerging as artists and designers use technology to push the boundaries of traditional artistic expression. The paper argues that embracing technological innovation is essential for the continued evolution of visual communication design. By exploring the intersection of art and technology, designers can create new and exciting visual experiences that engage and inspire audiences in new ways. The research also contributes to the theoretical and methodological understanding of the intersection of art and technology, a topic that has gained significant attention in recent years. Ultimately, this paper emphasizes the importance of embracing innovation and experimentation in the field of visual communication design, and highlights the exciting innovations that are emerging as a result of the intersection of art and technology, and emphasizes the importance of embracing innovation and experimentation in the field of visual communication design.

Keywords: visual communication design, art and technology, virtual reality, interactive art, creative process

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Authors: J. Gochermann

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Due to complex markets and products, and increasing need to innovate, cooperation between small and medium size enterprises arose during the last decades, which are not prior driven by process optimization or sales enhancement. Especially small and medium sized enterprises (SME) collaborate increasingly in innovation and knowledge networks to enhance their knowledge and innovation potential, and to find strategic partners for product and market development. These networks are characterized by dual objectives, the superordinate goal of the total network, and the specific objectives of the network members, which can cause target conflicts. Moreover, most SMEs do not have structured innovation processes and they are not accustomed to collaborate in complex innovation projects in an open network structure. On the other hand, SMEs have suitable characteristics for promising networking. They are flexible and spontaneous, they have flat hierarchies, and the acting people are not anonymous. These characteristics indeed distinguish them from bigger concerns. Investigation of German SME networks have been done to identify success factors for SME innovation networks. The fundamental network principles, donation-return and confidence, could be confirmed and identified as basic success factors. Further factors are voluntariness, adequate number of network members, quality of communication, neutrality and competence of the network management, as well as reliability and obligingness of the network services. Innovation and knowledge networks with an appreciable number of members from science and technology institutions need also active sense-making to bring different disciplines into successful collaboration. It has also been investigated, whether and how the involvement in an innovation network impacts the innovation structure and culture inside the member companies. The degree of reaction grows with time and intensity of commitment.

Keywords: innovation and knowledge networks, SME, success factors, innovation structure and culture

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Authors: Alexandros Pournaras, Anastasia Papadopoulou, Serafim Kontos, Anastasios Karakostas

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The air quality of modern cities is an important concern, as poor air quality contributes to human health and environmental issues. Reliable air quality forecasting has, thus, gained scientific and governmental attention as an essential tool that enables authorities to take proactive measures for public safety. In this study, the potential of Machine Learning (ML) models to forecast PM2.5 at local scale is investigated in the city of Thessaloniki, the second largest city in Greece, which has been struggling with the persistent issue of air pollution. ML models, with proven ability to address timeseries forecasting, are employed to predict the PM2.5 concentrations and the respective Air Quality Index 5-days ahead by learning from daily historical air quality and meteorological data from 2014 to 2016 and gathered from two stations with different land use characteristics in the urban fabric of Thessaloniki. The performance of the ML models on PM2.5 concentrations is evaluated with common statistical methods, such as R squared (r²) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), utilizing a portion of the stations’ measurements as test set. A multi-categorical evaluation is utilized for the assessment of their performance on respective AQIs. Several conclusions were made from the experiments conducted. Experimenting on MLs’ configuration revealed a moderate effect of various parameters and training schemas on the model’s predictions. Their performance of all these models were found to produce satisfactory results on PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, their application on untrained stations showed that these models can perform well, indicating a generalized behavior. Moreover, their performance on AQI was even better, showing that the MLs can be used as predictors for AQI, which is the direct information provided to the general public.

Keywords: Air Quality, AQ Forecasting, AQI, Machine Learning, PM2.5

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Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

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The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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Authors: Athanasios A. Gavrilidis, Mihai R. Nita, Larissa N. Stoia, Diana A. Onose

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Contemporary global environmental challenges must be primarily addressed at local levels. Cities are under continuous pressure as they must ensure high quality of life levels for their citizens and at the same time to adapt and address specific environmental issues. Innovative solutions using natural features or mimicking natural systems are endorsed by the scientific community as efficient approaches for both mitigating climate change effects and the decrease of environmental quality and for maintaining high standards of living for urban dwellers. The aim of this study was to assess whether Romanian cities’ authorities are considering nature-based innovation as solutions for their planning, management, and environmental issues. Data were gathered by applying 140 questionnaires to urban authorities throughout the country. The questionnaire was designed for assessinglocal policy makers’ perspective over the efficiency of nature-based innovations as a tool to address specific challenges. It also focused on extracting data about financing sources and challenges they must overcome for adopting nature-based approaches. The gather results from the municipalities participating in our study were statistically processed, and they revealed that Romanian city managers acknowledge the benefits of nature-based innovations, but investments in this sector are not on top of their priorities. More than 90% of the selected cities have agreed that in the last 10 years, their major concern was to expand the grey infrastructure (roads and public amenities) using traditional approaches. When asked how they would react if faced with different socio-economic and environmental challenges, local urban managers indicated investments nature-based solutions as a priority only in case of biodiversity loss and extreme weather, while for other 14 proposed scenarios, they would embrace the business-as-usual approach. Our study indicates that while new concepts of sustainable urban planning emerge within the scientific community, local authorities need more time to understand and implement them. Without the proper knowledge, personnel, policies, or dedicated budgets, local administrators will not embrace nature-based innovations as solutions for their challenges.

Keywords: nature based innovations, perception analysis, policy making, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 156