Search results for: population balance modeling

Authors: Bin Wang, Yong Xu, Honggang Qu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao

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Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposit, and is one of the key technology of digital mine. The three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines the geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in three-dimensional environment with computer technology, and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provided scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

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Authors: Saima Suleman, Kalsoom Sughra, Naeem Mahmood Ashraf

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Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a communicable chronic illness. This disease is being highly focused by researchers as it is present approximately in one third of world population either in active or latent form. The genetic makeup of a person plays an important part in producing immunity against disease. And one important factor association is single nucleotide polymorphism of relevant gene. In this study, we have studied association between single nucleotide polymorphism of CD-209 gene (encode DC-SIGN receptor) and patients of tuberculosis. Dry lab (in silico) and wet lab (RFLP) analysis have been carried out. GWAS catalogue and GEO database have been searched to find out previous association data. No association study has been found related to CD-209 nsSNPs but role of CD-209 in pulmonary tuberculosis have been addressed in GEO database.Therefore, CD-209 has been selected for this study. Different databases like ENSEMBLE and 1000 Genome Project has been used to retrieve SNP data in form of VCF file which is further submitted to different software to sort SNPs into benign and deleterious. Selected SNPs are further annotated by using 3-D modeling techniques using I-TASSER online software. Furthermore, selected nsSNPs were checked in Gujrat and Faisalabad population through RFLP analysis. In this study population two SNPs are found to be associated with tuberculosis while one nsSNP is not found to be associated with the disease.

Keywords: association, CD209, DC-SIGN, tuberculosis

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Authors: Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Junji Kaneko, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Siti Ruhana Omar, Oke Oktavianty

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This study is used as a definition method to the value and function in manufacturing sector. In concurrence of discussion about present condition of modeling method, until now definition of 1D-CAE is ambiguity and not conceptual. Across all the physics fields, those methods are defined with the formulation of differential algebraic equation which only applied time derivation and simulation. At the same time, we propose semi-acausal modeling concept and differential algebraic equation method as a newly modeling method which the efficiency has been verified through the comparison of numerical analysis result between the semi-acausal modeling calculation and FEM theory calculation.

Keywords: system model, physical models, empirical models, conservation law, differential algebraic equation, object-oriented

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Authors: Assem El-Ansary

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach using the Healthcare Multi-Agent System. The Event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are: The Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology. The development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases, Healthcare Multi-Agent System

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Authors: Jacob A. Braun

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This paper uses mathematical modeling to show the spread of Herpes Simplex type-2 with and without the usage of condoms in a college population. The model uses four differential equations to calculate the data for the simulation. The dt increment used is one week. It also runs based on a fixated period. The period chosen was five years to represent time spent in college. The average age of the individual is 21, once again to represent the age of someone in college. In the total population, there are almost two times as many women who have Herpes Simplex Type-2 as men. Additionally, Herpes Simplex Type-2 does not have a known cure. The goal of the model is to show how condom usage affects women’s chances of receiving the virus in the hope of being able to reduce the number of women infected. In the end, the model demonstrates that condoms offer significant protection to women from the virus. Since fewer women are infected with the virus when condoms are used, in turn, fewer males are infected. Since Herpes Simplex Type-2 affects the carrier for their whole life, a small decrease of infections could lead to large ramifications over time. Specifically, a small decrease of infections at a young age, such as college, could have a very big effect on the long-term number of people infected with the virus.

Keywords: college, condom, Herpes, mathematical modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Assem El-Ansary

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Intelligent Agent Reservation System (IARS). The Event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are developing the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and developing an interactive software tool (DECISION) which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, intelligent agent, reservation system, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

Procedia PDF Downloads 484

Authors: Honggang Qu, Yong Xu, Rongmei Liu, Zhenji Gao, Bin Wang

Abstract:

Today's mining industry is advancing gradually toward digital and visual direction. The three-dimensional visualization geological modeling of mine is the digital characterization of mineral deposits and is one of the key technology of digital mining. Three-dimensional geological modeling is a technology that combines geological spatial information management, geological interpretation, geological spatial analysis and prediction, geostatistical analysis, entity content analysis and graphic visualization in a three-dimensional environment with computer technology and is used in geological analysis. In this paper, the three-dimensional geological modeling of an iron mine through the use of Surpac is constructed, and the weight difference of the estimation methods between the distance power inverse ratio method and ordinary kriging is studied, and the ore body volume and reserves are simulated and calculated by using these two methods. Compared with the actual mine reserves, its result is relatively accurate, so it provides scientific bases for mine resource assessment, reserve calculation, mining design and so on.

Keywords: three-dimensional geological modeling, geological database, geostatistics, block model

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Ahmed Ferhati, Arezki Adjrad, Ratiba Mitiche-Kettab, Hakim Djafer Khodja

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The porous media are omnipresent around us that they are natural as sand, clay, rocks, or manufactured like concretes, cement, and ceramics. The variety of porous environment indicates a wide material range which can be very different from each other. Their common point is to be made up of a solid matrix and a porous space. In our case of study, we made the modeling of the flows in porous environments through the massives as in the case of an earth dam. The computer code used (PLAXIS) offer the possibility of modeling of various structures, in particular, the works in lands because that it deals with the pore water pressure due to the underground flow and the calculation of the plastic deformations. To confirm results obtained by PLAXIS, GeoStudio SEEP/W code was used. This work treats modeling of flows and mechanical and hydraulic behavior of earth dam. A general framework which can fit the calculation of this kind of structures and the coupling of the soil consolidation and free surface flows was defined. In this study; we have confronted a real case modeling of an earth dam. It was shown, in particular, that it is possible to entirely lead the calculation of real dam and to get encouraging results from the hydraulic and mechanical point of view.

Keywords: analyzes, dam, flow, modeling, PLAXIS, seep/w, slope

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Authors: Kunihisa Kakumoto

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“Purpose”: Global environmental issues are now being raised in a global dimension. By predicting sprawl phenomena beyond the limits of nature with algorithms, we can expect to protect our social life within the limits of nature. It turns out that the sustainable state of the planet now consists in maintaining a balance between the capabilities of nature and the possibilities of our social life. The amount of water on earth is finite. Sustainability is therefore highly dependent on water capacity. A certain amount of water is stored in the forest by planting and green space, and the amount of water can be considered in relation to the green space. CO2 is also absorbed by green plants. "Possible measurements and methods": The concept of the solar community has been introduced in technical papers on the occasion of many international conferences. The solar community concept is based on data collected from one solar model house. This algorithmic study simulates the amount of water stored by lush green vegetation. In addition, we calculated and compared the amount of CO2 emissions from the Taiyo Community and the amount of CO2 reduction from greening. Based on the trial calculation results of these solar communities, we are simulating the sustainable state of the earth as an algorithm trial calculation result. We believe that we should also consider the composition of this solar community group using digital technology as control technology. "Conclusion": We consider the solar community as a prototype for finding sustainable conditions for the planet. The role of water is very important as the supply capacity of water is limited. However, the circulation of social life is not constructed according to the mechanism of nature. This simulation trial calculation is explained using the total water supply volume as an example. According to this process, algorithmic calculations consider the total capacity of the water supply and the population and habitable numbers of the area. Green vegetated land is very important to keep enough water. Green vegetation is also very important to maintain CO2 balance. A simulation trial calculation is possible from the relationship between the CO2 emissions of the solar community and the amount of CO2 reduction due to greening. In order to find this total balance and sustainable conditions, the algorithmic simulation calculation takes into account lush vegetation and total water supply. Research to find sustainable conditions is done by simulating an algorithmic model of the solar community as a prototype. In this one prototype example, it's balanced. The activities of our social life must take place within the permissive limits of natural mechanisms. Of course, we aim for a more ideal balance by utilizing auxiliary digital control technology such as AI.

Keywords: solar community, sustainability, prototype, algorithmic simulation

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Authors: Shankaran Sitarama

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New Product Development involves team members coming together and working in teams to come up with innovative solutions to problems, resulting in new products. Thus, a core attribute of a successful NPD team is their creativity and innovation. They need to be creative as a group, generating a breadth of ideas and innovative solutions that solve or address the problem they are targeting and meet the user’s needs. They also need to be very efficient in their teamwork as they work through the various stages of the development of these ideas, resulting in a POC (proof-of-concept) implementation or a prototype of the product. There are two distinctive traits that the teams need to have, one is ideational creativity, and the other is effective and efficient teamworking. There are multiple types of tensions that each of these traits cause in the teams, and these tensions reflect in the team dynamics. Ideational conflicts arising out of debates and deliberations increase the collective knowledge and affect the team creativity positively. However, the same trait of challenging each other’s viewpoints might lead the team members to be disruptive, resulting in interpersonal tensions, which in turn lead to less than efficient teamwork. Teams that foster and effectively manage these creative tensions are successful, and teams that are not able to manage these tensions show poor team performance. In this paper, it explore these tensions as they result in the team communication social network and propose a Creative Tension Balance index along the lines of Degree of Balance in social networks that has the potential to highlight the successful (and unsuccessful) NPD teams. Team communication reflects the team dynamics among team members and is the data set for analysis. The emails between the members of the NPD teams are processed through a semantic analysis algorithm (LSA) to analyze the content of communication and a semantic similarity analysis to arrive at a social network graph that depicts the communication amongst team members based on the content of communication. This social network is subjected to traditional social network analysis methods to arrive at some established metrics and structural balance analysis metrics. Traditional structural balance is extended to include team interaction pattern metrics to arrive at a creative tension balance metric that effectively captures the creative tensions and tension balance in teams. This CTB (Creative Tension Balance) metric truly captures the signatures of successful and unsuccessful (dissonant) NPD teams. The dataset for this research study includes 23 NPD teams spread out over multiple semesters and computes this CTB metric and uses it to identify the most successful and unsuccessful teams by classifying these teams into low, high and medium performing teams. The results are correlated to the team reflections (for team dynamics and interaction patterns), the team self-evaluation feedback surveys (for teamwork metrics) and team performance through a comprehensive team grade (for high and low performing team signatures).

Keywords: team dynamics, social network analysis, new product development teamwork, structural balance, NPD teams

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Authors: Irina A. Gudkova, Yousra Demigha

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Scientific research is moving more and more towards the study of complex systems in several areas of economics, biology physics, and computer science. In this paper, we will work on complex systems in communication networks, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) that are considered as stochastic systems composed of interacting entities. The current advancements of the sensing in computing and communication systems is an investment ground for research in several tracks. A detailed presentation was made for the WSN, their use, modeling, different problems that can occur in their application and some solutions. The main goal of this work reintroduces the idea of mean field method since it is a powerful technique to solve this type of models especially systems that evolve according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC). Modeling of a CTMC has been focused; we obtained a large system of interacting Continuous Time Markov Chain with population entities. The main idea was to work on one entity and replace the others with an average or effective interaction. In this context to make the solution easier, we consider a wireless sensor network as a multi-body problem and we reduce it to one body problem. The method was applied to a system of WSN modeled as a Markovian queue showing the results of the used technique.

Keywords: Continuous-Time Markov Chain, Hidden Markov Chain, mean field method, Wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Hamid Mustafa, Huson J. Heather, Kim Eiusoo, Adeela Ajmal, Tad S. Sonstegard

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the informativeness of Bovine high density SNPs genotyping in Sahiwal cattle population. This is a first attempt to assess the Bovine HD SNP genotyping array in any Pakistani indigenous cattle population. To evaluate these SNPs on genome wide scale, we considered 777,962 SNPs spanning the whole autosomal and X chromosomes in Sahiwal cattle population. Fifteen (15) non related gDNA samples were genotyped with the bovine HD infinium. Approximately 500,939 SNPs were found polymorphic (MAF > 0.05) in Sahiwal cattle population. The results of this study indicate potential application of Bovine High Density SNP genotyping in Pakistani indigenous cattle population. The information generated from this array can be applied in genetic prediction, characterization and genome wide association studies of Pakistani Sahiwal cattle population.

Keywords: Sahiwal cattle, polymorphic SNPs, genotyping, Pakistan

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Authors: Elnaz Sabzehparvar, Pouya Rabiei, Houman Rezaei

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Few studies have been conducted about the effects of compound exercises emphasizing local stability and global stabilization subsystems on the performance of athletes. The present research aimed to study the effect of 6 weeks of compound exercises emphasizing local and global stability on the dynamic balance of elite male Taekwondo athletes. Twenty-seven elite male Taekwondo athletes (with a mean age, mass, and height of 24.4 ± 4.9 years, 75.7 ± 15.1kg, and 181.4 ± 7.8 cm, respectively) were assigned to two groups of control (n=12) and exercise (n=15). 6 weeks of compound exercises in 2 local and global phases. The first phase included activation exercises which were done separately and locally for 3 weeks. Then, integrative exercises specific to the global stabilization subsystems (longitudinal-depth, posterior oblique and anterior, and lateral) was carried out for next 3 weeks. The dynamic balance of subjects was measured in the pre-test and post-test using the Y Balance Test (YBT). After 6 weeks of compound exercises, scores of the YBT in the exercise group showed a significant improvement in all three anterior (p=0.035), posterolateral (p=0.017) and medial (p=0.001) directions in the post-test compared to the control group (p ≤ 0.05 for all comparisons). The findings of the present study suggested that compound exercises focusing on muscle as separate units and then as interdependent chains (muscular subsystems) can significantly increase YBT on elite male Taekwondo athletes in all three directions.

Keywords: Taekwondo, compound exercises, local and global stability, muscular subsystems

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Authors: P. Sathyakala, G. Sai Sundara Krishnan

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The objective of this paper is to derive an exergy model for a solar water heater with honey comb structure in order to identify the element which has larger irreversibility in the system. This will help us in finding the means to reduce the wasted work potential so that the overall efficiency of the system can be improved by finding the ways to reduce those wastages.

Keywords: exergy, energy balance, entropy balance, work potential, degradation, honey comb, flat plate collector

Procedia PDF Downloads 478

Authors: Lina Vyas, Stuti Rawat

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The COVID-19 outbreak has forced many employees to extensively adopt remote work or, widely known as work from home (WFH) arrangements. During the last two years, both employers and employees have had the opportunity to be increasingly aware of the benefits and drawbacks of WFH. Likewise, it gained the attention of academics from various schools of thought who have been interested in the future of work practices and work-life balance. Additionally, employees might also have various demands regarding their work practices after the pandemic. This study explores the potential of hybrid ways of working in the post-pandemic period by comparing first-timers who (sometimes or always) worked from home during the pandemic with those who did not, in terms of the aspects of work-life balance, work-life interference, job performance and willingness to work from home after the pandemic. The quantitative research approach was adopted. Data were collected via an online questionnaire from employees working from home in Hong Kong during the pandemic. There were one thousand three hundred and twenty-eight responses, but only 1,235 respondents experienced working from home during the pandemic. The findings reveal that 72.2% never had or hardly experienced work from home prior to the pandemic. There were statistically significant differences between first-timers and non-first-timers in work-life balance and work-life interference. The study also found that first-timers who were always working from home during the pandemic would prefer having longer WFH after the pandemic than those who were sometimes working from home. These results would serve as a basis for policy development, enabling policymakers to design appropriate HR policies and amend them to meet the current context of actual employee needs.

Keywords: hybrid working mode, remote working, work from home, work-life balance, workplace

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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World GHG emissions should be reduced 50% by 2050 compared with 1990 level. CO2 emission reduction from steel sector, an energy-intensive sector, is essential. To estimate CO2 emission from steel sector in the world, estimation of steel production is required. The world steel production by process is estimated during the period of 2005-2050. The world is divided into aggregated 35 regions. For a steel making process, two kinds of processes are considered; basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF). Steel production by process in each region is decided based on a current production capacity, supply-demand balance of steel and scrap, technology innovation of steel making, steel consumption projection, and goods trade. World steel production under moderate countermeasure scenario in 2050 increases by 1.3 times compared with that in 2012. When domestic scrap recycling is promoted, steel production in developed regions increases about 1.5 times. The share in developed regions changes from 34 %(2012) to about 40%(2050). This is because developed regions are main suppliers of scrap. 48-57% of world steel production is produced by EAF. Under the scenario which thinks much of supply-demand balance of steel, steel production in developing regions increases is 1.4 times and is larger than that in developed regions. The share in developing regions, however, is not so different from current level. The increase in steel production by EAF is the largest under the scenario in which supply-demand balance of steel is an important factor. The share reaches 65%.

Keywords: global steel production, production distribution scenario, steel making process, supply-demand balance

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Authors: Ozgul Kartal, Wade Tillett, Lyn D. English

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Despite its global significance in curricula, mathematical modeling encounters persistent disparities in recognition and emphasis within regular mathematics classrooms and teacher education across countries with diverse educational and cultural traditions, including variations in the perceived role of mathematical modeling. Over the past two decades, increased attention has been given to the integration of mathematical modeling into national curriculum standards in the U.S. and other countries. Therefore, the mathematics education research community has dedicated significant efforts to investigate various aspects associated with the teaching and learning of mathematical modeling, primarily focusing on exploring the applicability of modeling in schools and assessing students', teachers', and preservice teachers' (PTs) competencies and engagement in modeling cycles and processes. However, limited attention has been directed toward examining potential resistance hindering teachers and PTs from effectively implementing mathematical modeling. This study focuses on how PTs, without prior modeling experience, resist and/or embrace mathematical modeling and its pedagogy as they learn about models and modeling perspectives, navigate the modeling process, design and implement their modeling activities and lesson plans, and experience the pedagogy enabling modeling. Model eliciting activities (MEAs) were employed due to their high potential to support the development of mathematical modeling pedagogy. The mathematical modeling module was integrated into a mathematics methods course to explore how PTs embraced or resisted mathematical modeling and its pedagogy. The module design included reading, reflecting, engaging in modeling, assessing models, creating a modeling task (MEA), and designing a modeling lesson employing an MEA. Twelve senior undergraduate students participated, and data collection involved video recordings, written prompts, lesson plans, and reflections. An open coding analysis revealed acceptance and resistance toward teaching mathematical modeling. The study identified four overarching themes, including both acceptance and resistance: pedagogy, affordance of modeling (tasks), modeling actions, and adjusting modeling. In the category of pedagogy, PTs displayed acceptance based on potential pedagogical benefits and resistance due to various concerns. The affordance of modeling (tasks) category emerged from instances when PTs showed acceptance or resistance while discussing the nature and quality of modeling tasks, often debating whether modeling is considered mathematics. PTs demonstrated both acceptance and resistance in their modeling actions, engaging in modeling cycles as students and designing/implementing MEAs as teachers. The adjusting modeling category captured instances where PTs accepted or resisted maintaining the qualities and nature of the modeling experience or converted modeling into a typical structured mathematics experience for students. While PTs displayed a mix of acceptance and resistance in their modeling actions, limitations were observed in embracing complexity and adhering to model principles. The study provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities of integrating mathematical modeling into teacher education, emphasizing the importance of addressing pedagogical concerns and providing support for effective implementation. In conclusion, this research offers a comprehensive understanding of PTs' engagement with modeling, advocating for a more focused discussion on the distinct nature and significance of mathematical modeling in the broader curriculum to establish a foundation for effective teacher education programs.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, model eliciting activities, modeling pedagogy, secondary teacher education

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Authors: Rahim Sarvar, Bahram Azadbakht, Samira Safaee

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The leading goal of all planning is to attain sustainable development, regional balance, suitable distribution of activities, and maximum use of environmental capabilities in the process of development of regions. Intensive concentration of population and activities in one or some limited geographical locality is of main characteristics of most developing countries, especially Iran. Not considering the long-term programs and relying on temporary and superficial plans by people in charge of decision-making to attain their own objectives causes obstacles, resulting in unbalance development. The basic reason for these problems is to establish the development planning while economic aspects are merely considered and any attentions are not paid to social and regional feedbacks, what have been ending up to social and economic inequality, unbalanced distribution of development among the regions as well. In addition to study of special planning and structure of the county of Malekan, this research tries to achieve some other aims, i.e. recognition and introduction of approaches in order to utilize resources optimally, to distribute the population, activities, and facilities in optimum fashion, and to investigate and identify the spatial development potentials of the County. Based on documentary, descriptive, analytical, and field studies, this research employs maps to analyze the data, investigates the variables, and applies SPSS, Auto CAD, and Arc View software. The results show that the natural factors have a significant influence on spatial layout of settlements; distribution of facilities and functions are not equal among the rural districts of the county; and there is a spatial equivalence in the region area between population and number of settlements.

Keywords: development, entropy index, Malekan City, planning, regional equilibrium

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Authors: Faezeh Mohammadi, Ebrahim Ebrahimi, Neda Azimi

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Use of ultrasound waves is one of the techniques for increasing the mixing and mass transfer in the microdevices. Ultrasound propagation into liquid medium leads to stimulation of the fluid, creates turbulence and so increases the mixing performance. In this study, CFD modeling of two-phase flow in a pitted micromixer equipped with a piezoelectric with frequency of 1.7 MHz has been studied. CFD modeling of micromixer at different velocity of fluid flow in the absence of ultrasound waves and with ultrasound application has been performed. The hydrodynamic of fluid flow and mixing efficiency for using ultrasound has been compared with the layout of no ultrasound application. The result of CFD modeling shows well agreements with the experimental results. The results showed that the flow pattern inside the micromixer in the absence of ultrasound waves is parallel, while when ultrasound has been applied, it is not parallel. In fact, propagation of ultrasound energy into the fluid flow in the studied micromixer changed the hydrodynamic and the forms of the flow pattern and caused to mixing enhancement. In general, from the CFD modeling results, it can be concluded that the applying ultrasound energy into the liquid medium causes an increase in the turbulences and mixing and consequently, improves the mass transfer rate within the micromixer.

Keywords: CFD modeling, ultrasound, mixing, mass transfer

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Authors: Sanja Bracun, Nikolina Kasunic

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After graduation, the student population of applied sciences will become the population of employees on IT experts’ positions or "just" business users of certain IT technologies for which the level of awareness of existing cybersecurity risks is extremely important. This research results define the current cybersecurity awareness level of students at Zagreb University of Applied Sciences (TVZ), what can be useful not only for teaching staff to form a curriculum related to cybersecurity more accurately but also to employers to know what to expect from their future employees regarding cybersecurity awareness level.

Keywords: student population cybersecurity awareness, cybersecurity awareness, cybersecurity, applied sciences students

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Assem I. El-Ansary

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Multi-Agent Railway Control System (MARCS). The Event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and the development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, multi-agent, railway control, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

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Authors: Stefanie M. Vanneste, Stijn Goeminne

Abstract:

This paper studies the effect of political characteristics of 308 Flemish municipalities on their budget balance in the period 1995-2011. All local governments experience the same economic and financial setting, however some governments have high budget balances, while others have low budget balances. The aim of this paper is to explain the differences in municipal budget balances by a number of economic, socio-demographic and political variables. The economic and socio-demographic variables will be used as control variables, while the focus of this paper will be on the political variables. We test four hypotheses resulting from the literature, namely (i) the partisan hypothesis tests if left wing governments have lower budget balances, (ii) the fragmentation hypothesis stating that more fragmented governments have lower budget balances, (iii) the hypothesis regarding the power of the government, higher powered governments would resolve in higher budget balances, and (iv) the opportunistic budget cycle to test whether politicians manipulate the economic situation before elections in order to maximize their reelection possibilities and therefore have lower budget balances before elections. The contributions of our paper to the existing literature are multiple. First, we use the whole array of political variables and not just a selection of them. Second, we are dealing with a homogeneous database with the same budget and election rules, making it easier to focus on the political factors without having to control for the impact of differences in the political systems. Third, our research extends the existing literature on Flemish municipalities as this is the first dynamic research on local budget balances. We use a dynamic panel data model. Because of the two lagged dependent variables as explanatory variables, we employ the system GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator. This is the best possible estimator as we are dealing with political panel data that is rather persistent. Our empirical results show that the effect of the ideological position and the power of the coalition are of less importance to explain the budget balance. The political fragmentation of the government on the other hand has a negative and significant effect on the budget balance. The more parties in a coalition the worse the budget balance is ceteris paribus. Our results also provide evidence of an opportunistic budget cycle, the budget balances are lower in pre-election years relative to the other years to try and increase the incumbents reelection possibilities. An additional finding is that the incremental effect of the budget balance is very important and should not be ignored like is being done in a lot of empirical research. The coefficients of the lagged dependent variables are always positive and very significant. This proves that the budget balance is subject to incrementalism. It is not possible to change the entire policy from one year to another so the actions taken in recent past years still have an impact on the current budget balance. Only a relatively small amount of research concerning the budget balance takes this considerable incremental effect into account. Our findings survive several robustness checks.

Keywords: budget balance, fragmentation, ideology, incrementalism, municipalities, opportunistic budget cycle, panel data, political characteristics, power, system GMM

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Authors: Raluca Ana Maria Viziteu, Anna Prudnikova

Abstract:

Industrial control systems (ICS) have received much attention in recent years due to the convergence of information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) that has increased the interdependence of safety and security issues to be considered. These issues require ICS-tailored solutions. That led to the need to creation of a methodology for supporting ICS device manufacturers and system integrators in carrying out threat modeling of embedded ICS devices in a way that guarantees the quality of the identified threats and minimizes subjectivity in the threat identification process. To research, the possibility of creating such a methodology, a set of existing standards, regulations, papers, and publications related to threat modeling in the ICS sector and other sectors was reviewed to identify various existing methodologies and methods used in threat modeling. Furthermore, the most popular ones were tested in an exploratory phase on a specific PLC device. The outcome of this exploratory phase has been used as a basis for defining specific characteristics of ICS embedded devices and their deployment scenarios, identifying the factors that introduce subjectivity in the threat modeling process of such devices, and defining metrics for evaluating the minimum quality requirements of identified threats associated to the deployment of the devices in existing infrastructures. Furthermore, the threat modeling methodology was created based on the previous steps' results. The usability of the methodology was evaluated through a set of standardized threat modeling requirements and a standardized comparison method for threat modeling methodologies. The outcomes of these verification methods confirm that the methodology is effective. The full paper includes the outcome of research on different threat modeling methodologies that can be used in OT, their comparison, and the results of implementing each of them in practice on a PLC device. This research is further used to build a threat modeling methodology tailored to OT environments; a detailed description is included. Moreover, the paper includes results of the evaluation of created methodology based on a set of parameters specifically created to rate threat modeling methodologies.

Keywords: device manufacturers, embedded devices, industrial control systems, threat modeling

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Authors: Taehyun Kim, Hyunjoo Park, Taehyun Kim

Abstract:

Since the rapid economic development, Korea has recently entered a period of low growth due to population decline and aging. Due to the urbanization around the metropolitan area and the hollowing of local cities, the ecological capacity of a city is decreasing while ecological footprints are increasing, requiring a compact space plan for maintaining urban functions. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between urban spatial structure and residents' ecological footprints for sustainable spatial planning. To do this, we try to analyze the relationship between intra-urban spatial structure, such as net/gross density and service accessibility, and resident ecological footprints of food, housing, transportation, goods and services through survey and structural equation modeling. The results of the study will be useful in establishing an implementation plan for sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially for sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11) and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12) in the future.

Keywords: ecological footprint, structural equation modeling, survey, sustainability, urban spatial structure

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Authors: Roham Rafiee, Behzad Mazhari

Abstract:

Composite structures, having incredible properties, have gained considerable popularity in the last few decades. Among all types, polymer matrix composites are being used extensively due to their unique characteristics including low weight, convenient fabrication process and low cost. Having polymer as matrix, these type of composites show different creep behavior when compared to metals and even other types of composites since most polymers undergo creep even in room temperature. One of the most challenging topics in creep is to introduce new techniques for predicting long term creep behavior of materials. Depending on the material which is being studied the appropriate method would be different. Methods already proposed for predicting long term creep behavior of polymer matrix composites can be divided into five categories: (1) Analytical Modeling, (2) Empirical Modeling, (3) Superposition Based Modeling (Semi-empirical), (4) Rheological Modeling, (5) Finite Element Modeling. Each of these methods has individual characteristics. Studies have shown that none of the mentioned methods can predict long term creep behavior of all PMC composites in all circumstances (loading, temperature, etc.) but each of them has its own priority in different situations. The reason to this issue can be found in theoretical basis of these methods. In this study after a brief review over the background theory of each method, they are compared in terms of their applicability in predicting long-term behavior of composite structures. Finally, the explained materials are observed through some experimental studies executed by other researchers.

Keywords: creep, comparative study, modeling, composite materials

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Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

Abstract:

Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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Authors: Gerardo Ayala-Jaimes, Gilberto Gonzalez-Avalos, Allen A. Castillo, Alejandra Jimenez

Abstract:

The modeling of a single-phase cycloconverter in Bond Graph is presented, which includes an alternating current power supply, hybrid dynamics, switch control, and resistive load; this approach facilitates the integration of systems across different energy domains and structural analysis. Cycloconverters, used in motor control, demonstrate the viability of graphical modeling. The use of Bonds is proposed to model the hybrid interaction of the system, and the results are displayed through simulations using 20Sim and Multisim software. The motivation behind developing these models with a graphical approach is to design and build low-cost energy converters, thereby making the main contribution of this document the modeling and simulation of a single-phase cycloconverter.

Keywords: bond graph, hybrid system, rectifier, cycloconverter, modelling

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Authors: Paras Ram, Vikas Kumar

Abstract:

The transmission of Malaria with seasonal were studied through the use of mathematical models. The data from the annual number of Malaria cases reported to the Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand during the period 1997-2011 were analyzed. The transmission of Malaria with seasonal was studied by formulating a mathematical model which had been modified to describe different situations encountered in the transmission of Malaria. In our model, the population was separated into two groups: the human and vector groups, and then constructed a system of nonlinear differential equations. Each human group was divided into susceptible, infectious in hot season, infectious in rainy season, infectious in cool season and recovered classes. The vector population was separated into two classes only: susceptible and infectious vectors. The analysis of the models was given by the standard dynamical modeling.

Keywords: ferrofluid, magnetic field, porous medium, rotating disk, Neuringer-Rosensweig Model

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Authors: Salaam Mujeeb, Adeola Segun, Abdullahi Olasunkanmi

Abstract:

Dementia is becoming a major concern as the world population is increasing and elderly populations are being neglected. Liver and kidney Diseases have been implicated as risk factors in the etiology of Dementia. This study, therefore, evaluates the plasma Gamma Glutamyl Transferase (GGT) activity and plasma Electrolytes in other to find an association between the biomarkers and Dementia. The subjects (38) were age and sex-matched with their corresponding controls and structured questionnaires were used to obtain medical information. Using spectrophotometric and ion selective Electrode techniques respectively, we found and elevated GGT activity in the Dementia Subjects. Remarkably, no association was found between the plasma Electrolytes level and Dementia subjects. It was also observed that severity of Dementia worsens with age. Moreover, the condition of the dementia subjects worsens with reducing weight. Furthermore, the presence of Comorbidity e.g. Hypertension, Obesity, Diabetes and Habits like Smoking, Drugs and Alcohol consumption interferes with Electrolyte balance. Weight loss monitoring and IBM check are advised in Elderly individuals particularly females as they may be inductive of early or future cognitive impairments. Therefore, it might be useful as an early detection tool. Government and society should invest more on the Geriatric population by establishing Old people's home and providing social care services.

Keywords: clinical characteristics, dementia, electrolytes, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, GGT

Procedia PDF Downloads 325