Search results for: estimates

Authors: Oleg A. Romanovskii, Vladimir D. Burlakov, Sergey I. Dolgii, Olga V. Kharchenko, Alexey A. Nevzorov, Alexey V. Nevzorov

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The paper presents the results of DIAL measurements of the vertical ozone distribution. The ozone lidar operate as part of the measurement complex at Siberian Lidar Station (SLS) of V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS, Tomsk (56.5ºN; 85.0ºE) and designed for study of the vertical ozone distribution in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere. Most suitable wavelengths for measurements of ozone profiles are selected. We present an algorithm for retrieval of vertical distribution of ozone with temperature and aerosol correction during DIAL lidar sounding of the atmosphere. The temperature correction of ozone absorption coefficients is introduced in the software to reduce the retrieval errors. Results of lidar measurement at wavelengths of 299 and 341 nm agree with model estimates, which point to acceptable accuracy of ozone sounding in the 6–18 km altitude range.

Keywords: lidar, ozone distribution, atmosphere, DIAL

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Authors: Abdurrasheed Sa'id, Abubakar Isma'il, Waheed Alayande

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This study focused on carrying out numerical simulations of Kangimi reservoir sedimentation by reviewing different numerical sediment transport models, and GSTARS3 was selected. The model was developed using the 1977 data. It was calibrated by simulating the 2012 profile and sediment deposition and compared with 2012 hydrographic survey results of NWRI. The model was validated by simulating the 2016 deposition and compared the results with NWRI estimates. Also, the performance of the proposed model was tested using statistical parameters such as MSE (Mean Square Error), MAPE (Mean Average Percentage Error) and R2 (Coefficient of determination) with values of 1.32m, 0.17% and 0.914 respectively which shows strong agreement. After the calibration, validation and performance testing the model was used to simulate the 2032 and 2062 profiles and deposition. The results showed that by 2032 the reservoir will be silted by 25.34MCM or 43.3% of the design capacity and 60.7% of the capacity by the year 2062. A number of sedimentation mitigation measures were recommended.

Keywords: NWRI- national water resources institute, sedimentation, GSTARS3, model

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Authors: Safa A. Mohammed Ali, Ammar S. Ahamed, Mohammed Khair Abdalla

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The objectives of this study were to estimate the means and genetic parameters of birth and weaning weight of calves of pure Holstein-Friesian cows raised in Sudan. The traits studied were:*Weight at birth *Weight at weaning. The study also included some of the important factors that affected these traits. The data were analyzed using Harvey’s Least Squares and Maximum Likelihood programme. The results obtained showed that the overall mean weight at birth of the calves under study was 34.36±0.94kg. Male calves were found to be heavier than females; the difference between the sexes was highly significant (P<0.001). The mean weight at birth of male calves was 34.27±1.17 kg while that of females was 32.51±1.14kg. The effect of sex of calves, sire and parity of dam were highly significant (P<0.001). The overall mean of weight at weaning was 67.10 ± 5.05 kg, weight at weaning was significantly (p<0.001) effected by sex of calves, sire, year and season of birth have highly significant (P<0.001) effect on either trait. Also estimates heritabilities of birth weight was (0.033±0.015) lower than heritabilities of weaning weight (0.224±0.039), and genetic correlation was 0.563, the phenotypic correlation 0.281, and the environmental correlation 0.268.

Keywords: birth, weaning, weight, friesian

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: Saad Ahmed, Sanjeev Khannaa

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Glass fiber reinforced polymers are widely used in structural systems as load-bearing elements at both high and low temperatures. This investigation presents the evaluation of glass fiber reinforced unsaturated polyurethane under harsh conditions of changing temperature and moisture content. This study Explores how these parameters affect the optical properties of the polymer matrix and the composite. Using the hand layup method, the polyurethane resin was modified by E-glass fibers (15 vol. %) to manufacture fiber-reinforced composite. This work includes the preparation of glass-like polyurethane resin sheets and estimates all light transmittance properties at high and very low temperatures and wet conditions. All-optical properties were retested to evaluate the level of improvement or failure. The results found that when comprising reinforced composite fiber to the unreinforced specimens, the reinforced composite shows a fair optical property at high temperatures and good performance at low temperatures.

Keywords: unsaturated polyurethane, extreme temperatures, light transmittance, haze number

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Authors: Marwa Sahnoun, Chokri Abdennadher

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This article comes, very timely, to look at the effectiveness of active labor market policies (ALMP) in improving labor market outcomes. Using panel data estimates for 19 European countries during the period 2000-2012, this article showed the role of institutional factors, especially the role of employment policies implementation based on three variables: the allocation of resources for the implementation of policies, continuity and timing in the implementation of policies to capture their effectiveness on the labor market. Empirical results shows favor effect of training, employment incentives, sheltered employment and rehabilitation and direct job creation on the entire population employment growth. Results shows also that start-up incentives seems to be more effective in increasing employment than other types of policies. Importantly, two aspects are important in terms of implementation: public expenditure on program administration, e.g. (PES) watches the most favorable aspect and the continuity of policies implemented.

Keywords: active labor market policies, implementation, public expenditure on program administration, start-up incentives, training

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Authors: Kasim Sakran Abass

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This main aim of this study was to confirm and extend our current knowledge about the effects of dilutions on esterases activities in the blood for birds with respect to protecting the enzyme from organophosphate inhibition. There were significantly higher esterases activities in dilution 1:10 in all blood samples from quail, duck, and chick compared to other dilutions (1:5, 1:15, 1:20, and 1:25). Furthermore, our results also pointed to the importance of estimating different dilutions effects prior to using in birds as biomarker tools of environmental exposure. Concentration–inhibition curves were determined for the inhibitor in the presence of dilutions 1:5, 1:10 plus 1:15 (to stimulate carboxylesterase). Point estimates (concentrations calculated to produce 20, 50, and 80% inhibition) were compared across conditions and served as a measure of esterase-mediated detoxification. Among the thiol esters (dilution 1:5) was observed to have the highest specificity constant (kcat/Km), and the Km and kcat values were 176 μM and 16,765 s−1, respectively for S-phenyl thioacetate ester, while detected in (dilution 1:15) the lowest specificity constant (kcat/Km), and the Km and kcat values were 943 μM and 1154 s−1, respectively for acetylthiocholine iodide ester.

Keywords: esterase, animal, dilution, pesticides

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Authors: Byung Cheol Kim

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The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management, but it struggles with subjective distributions, particularly due to its assumptions of constant variance and light tails. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Generalized PERT (G-PERT) model, which enhances PERT by incorporating variability in three-point subjective estimates. Our methodology extends the original PERT model to cover the full range of unimodal beta distributions, enabling the model to handle thick-tailed distributions and offering formulas for computing mean and variance. This maintains the simplicity of PERT while providing a more accurate depiction of uncertainty. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the G-PERT model significantly improves performance, particularly when dealing with heavy-tail subjective distributions. In comparative assessments with alternative models such as triangular and lognormal distributions, G-PERT shows superior accuracy and flexibility. These results suggest that G-PERT offers a more robust solution for project estimation while still retaining the user-friendliness of the classic PERT approach.

Keywords: PERT, subjective distribution, project management, flexible variance

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Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

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Authors: Rabiul Islam

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The study was in order to assess soil erosion at plot scale Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) erosion model and Geographic Information System (GIS) technique have been used for the study 8 plots in Guthrie Corridor Expressway, Selangor, Malaysia. The USLE model estimates an average soil loss soil integrating several factors such as rainfall erosivity factor(R ), Soil erodibility factor (K), slope length and steepness factor (LS), vegetation cover factor as well as conservation practice factor (C &P) and Results shows that the four plots have very low rates of soil loss, i.e. NLDNM, NDNM, PLDM, and NDM having an average soil loss of 0.059, 0.106, 0.386 and 0.372 ton/ha/ year, respectively. The NBNM, PLDNM and NLDM plots had a relatively higher rate of soil loss, with an average of 0.678, 0.757 and 0.493ton/ha/year. Whereas, the NBM is one of the highest rate of soil loss from 0.842 ton/ha/year to maximum 16.466 ton/ha/year. The NBM plot was located at bare the land; hence the magnitude of C factor(C=0.15) was the highest one.

Keywords: USLE model, GIS, Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE), Malaysia

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Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone, least squares method, regression models

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Authors: Tewelde Gebresslase Haile, S. P. Singh

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To bridge the existing knowledge gap on public intervention implementations, this study estimates the impact of social protection intervention (SPI) on alleviating social vulnerability. Following a multi-stage sampling, primary information was gathered through a self-administered questionnaire, FGD, and interviews from the target households located at four systematically selected districts of Tigrai, Ethiopia. Factor analysis and Propensity Score Matching are applied to construct Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and measuring the counterfactual impact of selected intervention. As a multidimensional challenge, social vulnerability is found as an important concept used to guide policy evaluation. Accessibility of basic services of Social Affairs, Agriculture, Health and Education sectors, and Food Security Program are commonly used as SPIs. Finally, this study discovers that the households who had access to SPI have scored 9.65% lower SVI than in the absence of the intervention. Finally, this study suggests the provision of integrated, proactive, productive, and evidence-based SPIs to alleviate social vulnerability.

Keywords: social protection, livelihood assets, social vulnerability, public policy SVI

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Lakshminarayanan, Vijayaraghavan, Krishnamurthy

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The ever-increasing demand for high efficiency in automotive and aerospace applications requires new materials to suit to high temperature applications. The Ceramic Matrix Composites nowadays find its applications for high strength and high temperature environments. In this paper, Al2O3 and Sic ceramic materials are taken in particulate form as matrix and reinforcement respectively. They are blended together in Ball Milling and compacted in Cold Compaction Machine by powder metallurgy technique. Scanning Electron Microscope images are taken for the samples in order to find out proper blending of powders. Micro harness testing is also carried out for the samples in Vickers Micro Hardness Testing Equipment. Surface grinding of the samples is also carried out in Surface Grinding Machine in order to find out grinding force estimates. The surface roughness of the grounded samples is also taken in Surface Profilometer. These are yielding promising results.

Keywords: ceramic matrix composite, cold compaction, material characterization, particulate and surface grinding

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Authors: Deliou Adel, Saadalah Younes, Belkaid Khmissi, Dehbi Meriem

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Composite materials, in the most common sense of the term, are a set of synthetic materials designed and used mainly for structural applications; the mechanical function is dominant. The mechanical behaviors of the composite, as well as the degradation mechanisms leading to its rupture, depend on the nature of the constituents and on the architecture of the fiber preform. The profile is required because it guides the engineer in designing structures with precise properties in relation to the needs. This work is about studying the mechanical behavior of unidirectional composite laminates according to different failure criteria. Varying strength parameter values make it possible to compare the ultimate mechanical characteristics obtained by the criteria of Tsai-Hill, Fisher and maximum stress. The laminate is subjected to uniaxial tensile membrane forces. Estimates of their ultimate strengths and the plotting of the failure envelope constitute the principal axis of this study. Using the theory of maximum stress, we can determine the various modes of damage of the composite. The different components of the deformation are presented for different orientations of fibers.

Keywords: unidirectional kevlar/epoxy composite, failure criterion, membrane stress, deformations, failure envelope

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Authors: Morten Stigaard Laursen, Rasmus Nyholm Jørgensen, Mads Dyrmann, Robert Poulsen

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For the past three years, the Danish project, RoboWeedSupport, has sought to bridge the gap between the potential herbicide savings using a decision support system and the required weed inspections. In order to automate the weed inspections it is desired to generate a map of the weed species present within the field, to generate the map images must be captured with samples covering the field. This paper investigates the economical cost of performing this data collection based on a camera system mounted on a all-terain vehicle (ATV) able to drive and collect data at up to 50 km/h while still maintaining a image quality sufficient for identifying newly emerged grass weeds. The economical estimates are based on approximately 100 hectares recorded at three different locations in Denmark. With an average image density of 99 images per hectare the ATV had an capacity of 28 ha per hour, which is estimated to cost 6.6 EUR/ha. Alternatively relying on a boom solution for an existing tracktor it was estimated that a cost of 2.4 EUR/ha is obtainable under equal conditions.

Keywords: weed mapping, integrated weed management, weed recognition, image acquisition

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Authors: Arash Esmaeili, Zhibang Liu, Yang Xiang, Jimmy Yun, Lei Shao

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A high pressure carbon dioxide (CO₂) absorption from a specific gas in a conventional column has been evaluated by the Aspen HYSYS simulator using a wide range of single absorbents and blended solutions to estimate the outlet CO₂ concentration, absorption efficiency and CO₂ loading to choose the most proper solution in terms of CO₂ capture for environmental concerns. The property package (Acid Gas-Chemical Solvent) which is compatible with all applied solutions for the simulation in this study, estimates the properties based on an electrolyte non-random two-liquid (E-NRTL) model for electrolyte thermodynamics and Peng-Robinson equation of state for the vapor and liquid hydrocarbon phases. Among all the investigated single amines as well as blended solutions, piperazine (PZ) and the mixture of piperazine and monoethanolamine (MEA) have been found as the most effective absorbents respectively for CO₂ absorption with high reactivity based on the simulated operational conditions.

Keywords: absorption, amine solutions, Aspen HYSYS, carbon dioxide, simulation

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Authors: Rohan V. Ambekar, Shrirang N. Tande

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The present study estimates the seismic response reduction factor (R) of reinforced concrete special moment resisting frame (SMRF) with and without shear wall using static nonlinear (pushover) analysis. Calculation of response reduction factor (R) is done as per the new formulation of response reduction factor (R) given by Applied Technology Council (ATC)-19 which is the product of strength factor (Rs), ductility factor (Rµ) and redundancy factor (RR). The analysis revealed that these three factors affect the actual value of response reduction factor (R) and therefore they must be taken into consideration while determining the appropriate response reduction factor to be used during the seismic design process. The actual values required for determination of response reduction factor (R) is worked out on the basis of pushover curve which is a plot of base shear verses roof displacement. Finally, the calculated values of response reduction factor (R) of reinforced concrete special moment resisting frame (SMRF) with and without shear wall are compared with the codal values.

Keywords: response reduction factor, ductility ratio, base shear, special moment resisting frames

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Authors: Jingde Li, Hong Hao

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Recent oil and gas accidents have reminded us the severe consequences of gas explosion on structure damage and financial loss. In order to protect the structures and personnel, engineers and researchers have been working on numerous different explosion mitigation methods. Amongst, venting is the most economical approach to mitigate gas explosion overpressure. In this paper, venting is used as the overpressure alleviation method. A theoretical method and a numerical technique are presented to predict the internal and external pressure from vented gas explosion in a large enclosure. Under idealized conditions, a number of experiments are used to calibrate the accuracy of the theoretically calculated data. A good agreement between the theoretical results and experimental data is seen. However, for realistic scenarios, the theoretical method over-estimates internal pressures and is incapable of predicting external pressures. Therefore, a CFD simulation procedure is proposed in this study to estimate both the internal and external overpressure from a large-scale vented explosion. Satisfactory agreement between CFD simulation results and experimental data is achieved.

Keywords: vented gas explosion, internal pressure, external pressure, CFD simulation, FLACS, ANSYS Fluent

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Authors: Arlan Zandro Brucal, John Lynham

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With the accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) increasingly becoming a concern, demand for coastal management and protection is expected to grow. Among the coastal management and protection methods, building seawalls are among the most controversial due to the negative externalities they impose on beachgoers and neighboring properties. This paper provides estimates of the external cost associated with building seawalls on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. Using hedonic pricing approach on real properties sold between 1980-2010 and aerial photographs of seawalls in 1995, the paper finds that (1) while seawalls do increase the value of protected properties, the share of armored properties appear to be negatively correlated with property sale prices, suggesting that the positive effect of seawalls tend to decline as more and more rely on this coastal management method; and (2) the value of beachfront properties tend to decline as they get approach seawalls. Results suggest that policymakers should devise a policy that would internalize the externalities associated with private-sector adaptation to climate change.

Keywords: private sector climate change adaptation, externalities, sea-level rise, hedonic pricing

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Authors: Abhishek Ranga

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The study examined the effect of accounting choice and level of disclosure on the firm’s implied cost of equity in Indian environment. For the study accounting choice was classified as aggressive or conservative depending upon the firm’s choice of accounting methods, accounting policies and accounting estimates. Level of disclosure is the quantum of financial and non-financial information disclosed in firm’s annual report, essentially in note to accounts section, schedules forming part of financial statements and Management Discussion and Analysis report. Regression models were developed with cost of equity as a dependent variable and accounting choice, level of disclosure as an independent variable along with selected control variables. Cost of equity was measured using Edward-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) valuation model, to measure accounting choice Modified-Jones-Model (MJM) was used and level of disclosure was measured using a disclosure index essentially drawn from Botosan study. Results indicated a negative association between the implied cost of equity and conservative accounting choice and also between level of disclosure and cost of equity.

Keywords: aggressive accounting choice, conservative accounting choice, disclosure, implied cost of equity

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Authors: Asmir Gogic, Aljo Mujcic, Sandra Ibric, Nermin Suljanovic

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Ubiquity of natural disasters during last few decades have risen serious questions towards the prediction of such events and human safety. Every disaster regardless its proportion has a precursor which is manifested as a disruption of some environmental parameter such as temperature, humidity, pressure, vibrations and etc. In order to anticipate and monitor those changes, in this paper we propose an overall system for disaster prediction and monitoring, based on wireless sensor network (WSN). Furthermore, we introduce a modified and simplified WSN routing protocol built on the top of the trickle routing algorithm. Routing algorithm was deployed using the bluetooth low energy protocol in order to achieve low power consumption. Performance of the WSN network was analyzed using a real life system implementation. Estimates of the WSN parameters such as battery life time, network size and packet delay are determined. Based on the performance of the WSN network, proposed system can be utilized for disaster monitoring and prediction due to its low power profile and mesh routing feature.

Keywords: bluetooth low energy, disaster prediction, mesh routing protocols, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Bailey Hall, Athena Hoppe, Tevyn Kagele, Anna Nichols, Breeanna Messner

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The Spokane Street Medicine (SSM) Program aims to deliver medical care to people experiencing homelessness in Spokane, Washington. Street medicine is designed to function in a non-traditional setting to help deliver healthcare to a largely underserved population. In this analysis, the SSM Program’s medical charts from street and shelter encounters in early 2021 were reviewed in order to identify illness and diseases in people experiencing homelessness in Spokane. More than half of the prescriptions written during these encounters were for either an antibacterial, an antibiotic, or an antifungal. Estimates of the cost to the local healthcare system are included. Initiating treatment for communicable diseases in people experiencing homelessness via street medicine efforts greatly reduces economic costs while improving health outcomes.

Keywords: ethical issues in public health, equity issues in public health, health economics, health disparities, healthcare costs, medical public health, public health ethics, street medicine

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Authors: Md. Mazharul Anwar, Md. Samim Hossain Molla, Md. Akkas Ali, Mian Sayeed Hassan

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After 68 years, the agreement between Bangladesh and India was ratified on 6 June 2015 and Bangladesh received 111 Indian enclaves. Millions of farm household lived in these previous enclaves, being detached from the mainland of the country, they were socially, economically and educationally deprived people in the world. This study was undertaken to compare of the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and the constant returns to scale (CRS) and variable returns to scale (VRS) output-oriented DEA models, based on a sample of 300 farms from the three largest enclaves of Bangladesh in 2017. However, the aim of the study was not only to compare estimates of technical efficiency obtained from the two approaches, but also to examine the determinants of inefficiency. The results from both the approaches indicated that there is a potential for increasing farm production through efficiency improvement and that farmers' age, educational level, new technology dissemination and training on crop production technology have a significant effect on efficiency. The detection and measurement of technical inefficiency and its determinants can be used as a basis of policy recommendations.

Keywords: DEA approach, previous enclaves, SFA approach, technical inefficiency

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Authors: Omolade Adeleke, Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti

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This study empirically examined the monetary policy and economic growth in the classical cycles in 8 member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), using the Markov switching model for the Two-phase Regime, covering the period 1980Q1 to 2020Q4. Our estimates suggest that these countries demonstrate to have similar business cycles, and the economies stay more in an expansion regime than a recession regime. The result further shows that the union has an average duration period of 3.1 and 15.9 quarters for contraction and expansion periods, respectively. The business cycle duration, on average, suggests 19 quarters, varying from country to country. Therefore, the formulation of policies that can enhance aggregate demand by member countries in the union is an antidote for recession and is necessary to drive the economy into equilibrium. Also, a low-interest rate and reduced inflation rate would ginger long-run economic growth.

Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, economic growth, Markov switching

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Authors: Adewole A. Ayoade, Marshall R. Sweatt, John P. H. Steele, Qi Han, Khaled Al-Wahedi, Hamad Karki, William A. Yearsley

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Understanding the behavioral characteristics of sensors is a crucial step in fusing data from several sensors of different types. This paper introduces a practical, real-time approach to integrate heterogeneous sensor data to achieve higher accuracy than would be possible from any one individual sensor in localizing a mobile robot. We use this approach in both indoor and outdoor environments and it is especially appropriate for those environments like oil and gas refineries due to their sparse and featureless nature. We have studied the individual contribution of each sensor data to the overall combined accuracy achieved from the fusion process. A Sequential Update Extended Kalman Filter(EKF) using validation gates was used to integrate GPS data, Compass data, WiFi data, Inertial Measurement Unit(IMU) data, Vehicle Velocity, and pose estimates from Fiducial marker system. Results show that the approach can enable a mobile robot to navigate autonomously in any environment using a priori information.

Keywords: inspection mobile robot, navigation, sensor fusion, sequential update extended Kalman filter

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Authors: Tahere Fazilat

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Caspian red deer or maral (Cervus elaphus maral) is the largest type of deer in iran. Maral in the past has lived in the north forests of Iran from the Caspian sea coast, Alborz mountains chain and oak forest of Zagros margin from the Azarbaijan up to fars province. However, the generation of them was completely destroyed in the north west and west of Iran. According to reports about 50 years and out of reach of humans. In the present studies, data were collected from 2004 to 2014 in the Mazandaran state Hyrcanian forest by means of guard of environment and justiciary office of department of environment of Mazandaran in this process the all arrested illegal hunting of red deer and the population census, estimation and the correlation of these data was assayed. We provide a first evaluation of how suitable these methods are by comparing the results with population estimates obtained using cohort analysis, and by analyzing the within-season variation in number of seen deer. The data gave us the future of red deer in northern forest of Iran and the results of policy of department of environment in Iran in red deer conservation.

Keywords: illegal hunting, red deer, census, concervation

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Authors: Vidhya Venugopal, Jeremiah Chinnadurai, Rebekah A. I. Lucas, Tord Kjellstrom, Bruno Lemke

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Introduction: The effects of climate change (CC) are largely discussed across the globe in terms of impacts on the environment and the general population, but the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored. The predicted rise in temperatures and heat events in the CC scenario have health implications on millions of workers in physically exerting jobs. The current health and productivity risks associated with heat exposures are characterized, future risk estimates as temperature rises and recommendations towards developing protective and preventive occupational health and safety guidelines for India are discussed. Methodology: Cross-sectional studies were conducted in several occupational sectors with workers engaged in moderate to heavy labor (n=1580). Quantitative data on heat exposures (WBGT°C), physiological heat strain indicators viz., Core temperature (CBT), Urine specific gravity (USG), Sweat rate (SwR) and qualitative data on heat-related health symptoms and productivity losses were collected. Data were analyzed for associations between heat exposures, health and productivity outcomes related to heat stress. Findings: Heat conditions exceeded the Threshold Limit Value (TLV) for safe manual work in 66% of the workers across several sectors (Avg.WBGT of 28.7°C±3.1°C). Widespread concerns about heat-related health outcomes (86%) were prevalent among workers exposed to high TLVs, with excessive sweating, fatigue and tiredness being commonly reported by workers. The heat stress indicators, core temperature (14%), Sweat rate (8%) and USG (9%), were above normal levels in the study population. A significant association was found between rise in Core Temperatures and WBGT exposures (p=0.000179) Elevated USG and SwR in the worker population indicate moderate dehydration, with potential risks of developing heat-related illnesses. In a steel industry with high heat exposures, an alarming 9% prevalence of kidney/urogenital anomalies was observed in a young workforce. Heat exposures above TLVs were associated with significantly increased odds of various adverse health outcomes (OR=2.43, 95% CI 1.88 to 3.13, p-value = <0.0001) and productivity losses (OR=1.79, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.4, p-value = 0.0002). Rough estimates for the number of workers who would be subjected to higher than TLV levels in the various RCP scenarios are RCP2.6 =79%, RCP4.5 & RCP6 = 81% and at RCP 8.5 = 85%. Rising temperatures due to CC has the capacity to further reduce already compromised health and productivity by subjecting the workers to increased heat exposures in the RCP scenarios are of concern for the country’s occupational health and economy. Conclusion: The findings of this study clearly identify that health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in the Indian subcontinent and understanding the various adaptation techniques needs urgent attention. Further research with a multi-targeted approach to develop strategies for implementing interventions to protect the millions of workers is imperative. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the “Health in All Policies” approach to avert adverse health and productivity consequences as climate change proceeds.

Keywords: heat stress, occupational health, productivity loss, heat strain, adverse health outcomes

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

Abstract:

Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

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Authors: Yaner Yan, Ning Li, Yajun Qiao, Shuqing An

Abstract:

Although most studies have focused on assessing and mapping terrestrial ecosystem services, there is still a knowledge gap on coastal ecosystem services and an urgent need to assess them. Lau (2013) clearly defined five types of costal ecosystem services: carbon sequestration, shoreline protection, fish nursery, biodiversity, and water quality. While high-resolution remote sensing can provide the more direct, spatially estimates of biophysical parameters, such as species distribution relating to biodiversity service, and Fluorescence information derived from remote sensing direct relate to photosynthesis, availing in estimation of carbon sequestration and the response to environmental changes in coastal wetland. Here, we review the capabilities of high-resolution and fluorescence remote sesing for describing biodiversity, vegetation condition, ecological processes and highlight how these prodicts may contribute to costal ecosystem service assessment. In so doing, we anticipate rapid progress to combine the high-resolution and fluorescence remote sesing to estimate the spatial pattern of costal ecosystem services.

Keywords: ecosystem services, high resolution, remote sensing, chlorophyll fluorescence

Procedia PDF Downloads 505