Search results for: conditional floor

Authors: Saida Dorbani, M'hammed Badaoui, Djilali Benouar

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This paper deals with the effect of the building design and epicentral distance on the storey lateral displacement, for several reinforced concrete buildings (6, 9 and 12 stories), with three floor plans: symmetric, mono symmetric, and unsymmetrical. These structures are subjected to seismic accelerations from the Boumerdes earthquake (Algeria, May 21st, Mw=6.5). The objective of this study is to highlight the impact of the fundamental period and epicentral distance on storey displacements for a given earthquake. The seismic lateral displacement is carried out in both longitudinal and transverse direction by the response spectrum method.

Keywords: natural period, epicenter distance, reinforced concrete buildings, storey displacement

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Authors: İsmail Karaca, Ömer Söner

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The use of advanced methods has been increasing day by day in the maritime sector, which is one of the sectors least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to minimize accidents, especially by using advanced methods in the investigation of marine accidents. This research aimed to conduct an exploratory statistical analysis of particular ship accidents in the Transport Safety Investigation Center of Turkey database. 46 ship accidents, which occurred between 2010-2018, have been selected from the database. In addition to the availability of a reliable and comprehensive database, taking advantage of the robust statistical models for investigation is critical to improving the safety of ships. Thus, descriptive analysis has been used in the research to identify causes and conditional factors related to different types of ship accidents. The research outcomes underline the fact that environmental factors and day and night ratio have great influence on ship safety.

Keywords: descriptive analysis, maritime industry, maritime safety, ship accident statistics

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia

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In this paper we analyze the state-dependent risk-spillover in different economic areas. To this end, we apply the quantile regression-based methodology developed in Adams, Füss and Gropp approach to examine the spillover in conditional tails of daily returns of indices of the banking industry in the US, BRICs, Peripheral EMU, Core EMU, Scandinavia, the UK and Emerging Markets. This methodology allow us to characterize size, direction and strength of financial contagion in a network of bilateral exposures to address cross-border vulnerabilities under different states of the economy. The general evidence shows as the spillover effects are higher and more significant in volatile periods than in tranquil ones. There is evidence of tail spillovers of which much is attributable to a spillover from the US on the rest of the analyzed regions, specially on European countries. In sharp contrast, the US banking system show more financial resilience against foreign shocks.

Keywords: spillover effects, Bank Contagion, SDSVaR, expected shortfall, VaR, expectiles

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Authors: María Barbaño Acevedo Gómez, Elena Sonsoles Rodríguez López, Sofía Olivia Calvo Moreno, Ángel Basas García, Christophe RamíRez Parenteau

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Introduction: Urinary incontinence (UI) is defined as the involuntary leakage of urine. In persons who practice sport, its prevalence is 36.1% (95% CI 26.5% –46.8%) and varies as it seems to depend on the intensity of exercise, movements and impact on the ground. Such high impact sports are likely to generate higher intra-abdominal pressures and leading to pelvic floor muscle weakness. Although physical exercise reduces the risk of suffering from many diseases the mentality of an elite athlete is not to optimize their health, achieving their goals can put their health at risk. Furthermore, feeling or suffering from any discomfort during training seems to be normal within the elite sport demands. Objective: The main objective of the present study was to know the effects of UI in sports performance in athletes. Methods: This was an observational study conducted in 754 elite athletes. After collecting questions about pelvic floor, UI and sport-related data, participants completed the questionnaire International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-UI Short- Form (ICIQ-SF) and ISI (index of incontinence severity). Results: 48.8% of the athletes declare having losses also in rest, preseason and / or competition (χ2 [3] = 3.64; p = 0.302), being the competition period (29.1%) the most frequent where suffer from urine leakage. Of the elite athletes surveyed, 33% had UI according ICIQ-SF (mean age 23.75 ± 7.74 years). Elite athletes with UI (5.31 ± 1.07 days) dedicate significantly more days per week to training [M = 0.28; 95% CI = 0.08-0.48; t (752) = 2.78; p = 0.005] than those without UI. Regarding frequency, 59.7% lose urine once a week, 25.6% lose urine more than 3 times a week, and 14.7% daily. Based on the amount, approximately 15% claim to lose a moderate and abundant. Athletes with the highest number of urine leaks during their training, the UI affects them more in their daily life (r = 0.259; p = 0.001), they present a greater number of losses in their day to day (r = 0.341; p <0.001 ) and greater severity of UI (r = 0.341; p <0.001). Conclusions: Athletes consider that UI affects them negatively in their daily routine, 30.9% affirm having a severity between moderate and severe in their daily routine, and 29.1% loss urine in competition period. An interesting fact is that more than half of the samples collected were elite athletes who compete at the highest level (Olympic Games, World and European Championship), the dedication to sport occupies a big piece in their life. The most frequent period where athletes suffers urine leakage is in competition and there are many emotions that athletes manage to get their best performance, if we add urine losses in that moments it is possible that their performance could be affected.

Keywords: athletes, performance, prevalence, sport, training, urinary incontinence

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Authors: Ruth Manzanares, Victor Honores, Hugo Zapata, Javier Cansaya, Deivid Yavar, Junior Meza

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LogiSum is a robot focused on education like a solution to the ecological crisis. This robot allows reducing the pollution on the beaches by stimulating environmental awareness of not contaminating through the collection of waste. Through the use of the methodology of design thinking, it is intended to reinforce values in adults and with a greater focus on children, so as not to contaminate the beaches. The goal is to encourage the use of the container of the robot LogiSum to put the garbage, with visual interaction and simulation of dialogue with the function of the robot. The results obtained of the testings of the interaction of children with the robot showed an encouraging behavior. With the robot, children left the waste in the right places and not bury it in the sand or in the floor.

Keywords: interaction human-robot, pollution reduction, social robot, robot container, beach pollution

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Authors: Joseph Akyeh, Abdul Samed Muntaka, Emmanuel Anin, Dorcas Nuertey

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Purpose: This study develops and tests arguments that the relationship between technology alignment and supply chain performance is conditional upon levels of technology championing. Methodology: The proposed relationships are tested on a sample of 217 hospitals in a major sub-Saharan African economy. Findings: Findings from the study indicate that technology alignment has a positive and significant effect on supply chain performance. The study further finds that while technology championing strengthens the direct effects of technology alignment on supply chain performance. Theoretical Contributions: A theoretical contribution from this study is the finding that when technology alignment drives supply chain performance is more complex than previously thought it depends on whether or not technology alignment is first championed by top management. Originality: Though some studies have been conducted on technology alignment and health supply chain performance, to the best of the researcher’s knowledge, no previous study has examined the moderating role of technology championing the link between technology alignment and supply chain performance.

Keywords: technology alignment, supply chain performance, technology championing, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Amir Taghizadeh Vahed, Adithya Thaduri

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Shovels are the main components in the mining transportation system. The productivity of the mines depends on the availability of shovels due to its high capital and operating costs. The unplanned failure/shutdowns of a shovel results in higher repair costs, increase in downtime, as well as increasing indirect cost (i.e. loss of production and company’s reputation). In order to mitigate these failures, predictive maintenance can be useful approach using failure prediction. The modern mining machinery or shovels collect huge datasets automatically; it consists of reliability and maintenance data. However, the gathered datasets are useless until the information and knowledge of data are extracted. Machine learning as well as data mining, which has a major role in recent studies, has been used for the knowledge discovery process. In this study, data mining and machine learning approaches are implemented to detect not only anomalies but also patterns from a dataset and further detection of failures.

Keywords: maintenance, machine learning, shovel, conditional based monitoring

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Authors: Zhao Xueran, Yang Dong

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In order to improve the problem that old wells in oilfields are shut down due to low oil recovery, sidetracking has become one of the main technical means to restore the vitality of old wells. A variety of sidetracking technologies have been researched and formed internationally. Among them, coiled tubing sidetracking horizontal wells have significant advantages over conventional sidetracking methods: underbalanced pressure operations; reducing the number of trips of tubing, while drilling and production, saving construction costs, less ground equipment and less floor space, orienter guidance to reduce drilling friction, etc. This paper mainly introduces the steering technology in coiled tubing intelligent sidetracking at home and abroad, including the orienter and the rotary steerable system.

Keywords: sidetracking, coiled tubing, orienter, rotary steering system

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Authors: Dafni Kalatzi Pantera

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How globalisation affects environmental activism? Existing research on this relationship focuses on the influence of the world polity on individuals’ willingness to participate in environmental movements. However, globalisation is a multidimensional process which promotes pro-environmental ideas through the world polity, but it also fosters economic growth which is considered antagonistic to the environment. This article models the way that globalisation as a whole affects individuals’ willingness to participate in environmental activism, and the main argument is that globalisation’s impact is conditional on political ideology. To test the above hypothesis, individual and country level data are used for European countries between 1981-2020. The results support the expectation of the article that although globalisation has a positive impact on individuals’ willingness to participate in environmental activism when it interacts with political ideology, its influence differs between ideological spectrums.

Keywords: environmental activism, globalisation, political ideology, world polity

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Ahmed Mantawy, James C. Anderson

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Numerous cases of earthquakes (main-shocks) that were followed by aftershocks have been recorded in California. In 1992 a pair of strong earthquakes occurred within three hours of each other in Southern California. The first shock occurred near the community of Landers and was assigned a magnitude of 7.3 then the second shock occurred near the city of Big Bear about 20 miles west of the initial shock and was assigned a magnitude of 6.2. In the same year, a series of three earthquakes occurred over two days in the Cape-Mendocino area of Northern California. The main-shock was assigned a magnitude of 7.0 while the second and the third shocks were both assigned a value of 6.6. This paper investigates the effect of a main-shock accompanied with aftershocks of significant intensity on reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings to indicate nonlinear behavior using PERFORM-3D software. A 6-story building in San Bruno and a 20-story building in North Hollywood were selected for the study as both of them have RC moment resisting frame systems. The buildings are also instrumented at multiple floor levels as a part of the California Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP). Both buildings have recorded responses during past events such as Loma-Prieta and Northridge earthquakes which were used in verifying the response parameters of the numerical models in PERFORM-3D. The verification of the numerical models shows good agreement between the calculated and the recorded response values. Then, different scenarios of a main-shock followed by a series of aftershocks from real cases in California were applied to the building models in order to investigate the structural behavior of the moment-resisting frame system. The behavior was evaluated in terms of the lateral floor displacements, the ductility demands, and the inelastic behavior at critical locations. The analysis results showed that permanent displacements may have happened due to the plastic deformation during the main-shock that can lead to higher displacements during after-shocks. Also, the inelastic response at plastic hinges during the main-shock can change the hysteretic behavior during the aftershocks. Higher ductility demands can also occur when buildings are subjected to trains of ground motions compared to the case of individual ground motions. A general conclusion is that the occurrence of aftershocks following an earthquake can lead to increased damage within the elements of an RC frame buildings. Current code provisions for seismic design do not consider the probability of significant aftershocks when designing a new building in zones of high seismic activity.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, existing buildings, aftershocks, damage accumulation

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Authors: Chawarat Rotejanaprasert, Andrew Lawson

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Early detection of unusual health events depends on the ability to detect rapidly any substantial changes in disease, thus facilitating timely public health interventions. To assist public health practitioners to make decisions, statistical methods are adopted to assess unusual events in real time. We introduce a surveillance Kullback-Leibler (SKL) measure for timely detection of disease outbreaks for small area health data. The detection methods are compared with the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate (SCPO) within the framework of Bayesian hierarchical Poisson modeling and applied to a case study of a group of respiratory system diseases observed weekly in South Carolina counties. Properties of the proposed surveillance techniques including timeliness and detection precision are investigated using a simulation study.

Keywords: Bayesian, spatial, temporal, surveillance, prospective

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Authors: Tanya Kaur Bedi, Shankha Pratim Bhattacharya

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The US Environmental Protection Agency defines indoor air pollution as “The air quality within and around buildings, especially as it relates to the health and comfort of building occupants”. According to the 2021 report by the Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, Indian residents, a country which is home to the highest levels of air pollution in the world, lose about 5.9 years from life expectancy due to poor air quality and yet has numerous dwellings dependent on natural ventilation. Currently the urban population spends 90% of the time indoors, this scenario raises a concern for occupant health and well-being. This study attempts to demonstrate the causal relationship between the indoor air pollution and its determining aspects. Detailed indoor air pollution audits were conducted in residential buildings located in Kolkata, India in the months of December and January 2021. According to the air pollution knowledge assessment city program in India, Kolkata is also the second most polluted mega-city after Delhi. Although the air pollution levels are alarming year-long, the winter months are most crucial due to the unfavourable environmental conditions. While emissions remain typically constant throughout the year, cold air is denser and moves slower than warm air, trapping the pollution in place for much longer and consequently is breathed in at a higher rate than the summers. The air pollution monitoring period was selected considering environmental factors and major pollution contributors like traffic and road dust. This study focuses on the relationship between the built environment and the spatial-temporal distribution of air pollutants in and around it. The measured parameters include, temperature, relative humidity, air velocity, particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, formaldehyde, and benzene. A total of 56 rooms were audited, selectively targeting the most dominant middle-income group in the urban area of the metropolitan. The data-collection was conducted using a set of instruments positioned in the human breathing-zone. The study assesses the relationship between indoor air pollution levels and factors determining natural ventilation and air pollution dispersion such as surrounding environment, dominant wind, openable window to floor area ratio, windward or leeward side openings, and natural ventilation type in the room: single side or cross-ventilation, floor height, residents cleaning habits, etc.

Keywords: indoor air quality, occupant health, air pollution, architecture, urban environment

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Authors: Shao-Di Feng, Von-Wun Soo

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To generate symbolic music with specific emotions is a challenging task due to symbolic music datasets that have emotion labels are scarce and incomplete. This research aims to generate more refined emotions based on the training datasets that are only labeled with four quadrants in Russel’s 2D emotion model. We focus on the theory of Music Fadernet and map arousal and valence to the low-level attributes, and build a symbolic music generation model by combining transformer and GM-VAE. We adopt an in-attention mechanism for the model and improve it by allowing modulation by conditional information. And we show the music generation model could control the generation of music according to the emotions specified by users in terms of high-level linguistic expression and by manipulating their corresponding low-level musical attributes. Finally, we evaluate the model performance using a pre-trained emotion classifier against a pop piano midi dataset called EMOPIA, and by subjective listening evaluation, we demonstrate that the model could generate music with more refined emotions correctly.

Keywords: music generation, music emotion controlling, deep learning, semi-supervised learning

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Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

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Authors: D. B. Gohil

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Closed die forging is a very complex process, and measurement of actual forces for real material is difficult and time consuming. Hence, the modelling technique has taken the advantage of carrying out the experimentation with the proper model material which needs lesser forces and relatively low temperature. The results of experiments on the model material then may be correlated with the actual material by using the theory of similarity. There are several methods available to resolve the complexity involved in the closed die forging process. Finite Element Method (FEM) and Finite Difference Method (FDM) are relatively difficult as compared to the slab method. The slab method is very popular and very widely used by the people working on shop floor because it is relatively easy to apply and reasonably accurate for most of the common forging load requirement computations.

Keywords: experimentation, forging, process modeling, strain distribution

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Authors: Gideon C. Joseph

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The ability to localize mobile devices is quite important, as some applications may require location information of these devices to operate or deliver better services to the users. Although there are several ways of acquiring location data of mobile devices, the WLAN fingerprinting approach has been considered in this work. This approach uses the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) measurement as a function of the position of the mobile device. RSSI is a quantitative technique of describing the radio frequency power carried by a signal. RSSI may be used to determine RF link quality and is very useful in dense traffic scenarios where interference is of major concern, for example, indoor environments. This research aims to design a system that can predict the location of a mobile device, when supplied with the mobile’s RSSIs. The developed system takes as input the RSSIs relating to the mobile device, and outputs parameters that describe the location of the device such as the longitude, latitude, floor, and building. The relationship between the Received Signal Strengths (RSSs) of mobile devices and their corresponding locations is meant to be modelled; hence, subsequent locations of mobile devices can be predicted using the developed model. It is obvious that describing mathematical relationships between the RSSIs measurements and localization parameters is one option to modelling the problem, but the complexity of such an approach is a serious turn-off. In contrast, we propose an intelligent system that can learn the mapping of such RSSIs measurements to the localization parameters to be predicted. The system is capable of upgrading its performance as more experiential knowledge is acquired. The most appealing consideration to using such a system for this task is that complicated mathematical analysis and theoretical frameworks are excluded or not needed; the intelligent system on its own learns the underlying relationship in the supplied data (RSSI levels) that corresponds to the localization parameters. These localization parameters to be predicted are of two different tasks: Longitude and latitude of mobile devices are real values (regression problem), while the floor and building of the mobile devices are of integer values or categorical (classification problem). This research work presents artificial neural network based intelligent systems to model the relationship between the RSSIs predictors and the mobile device localization parameters. The designed systems were trained and validated on the collected WLAN fingerprint database. The trained networks were then tested with another supplied database to obtain the performance of trained systems on achieved Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and error rates for the regression and classification tasks involved therein.

Keywords: indoor localization, WLAN fingerprinting, neural networks, classification, regression

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Authors: B. Noruziaan, A. Shvarzman, R. Leahy

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An innovative flooring underlayment was produced and tested. The composite system is made of common OSB boards and a layer of eco-friendly non-cement gypsum based material (GeoGypTM). It was found that the shear bond between the two materials is sufficient to secure the composite interaction between the two. The very high compressive strength and relatively high tensile strength of the non-cement based component together with its high modulus of elasticity provides enough strength and stiffness for the composite product to cover wider spacing between the joists. The initial findings of this study indicate that with joist spacing as wide as 800 mm, the flooring system provides enough strength without compromising the serviceability requirements of the building codes.

Keywords: Composite, floor deck, gypsum based, lumber joist, non-cement, oriented strandboard, shear bond

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Authors: Ignatio Madanhire, Charles Mbohwa

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This research examines the effect of a human resource strategy and the overall equipment effectiveness as well as assessing how the combination of the two can increase a firm’s productivity. The human resource aspect is looked at in detail to assess motivation of operators through training to reduce wastage on the manufacturing shop floor. The waste was attributed to operators, maintenance personal, idle machines, idle manpower and break downs. This work seeks to investigate the concept of Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) in addressing these short comings in the manufacturing case study. The impact of TPM to increase production while, as well as increasing employee morale and job satisfaction is assessed. This can be resource material for practitioners who seek to improve overall equipment efficiency (OEE) to achieve higher level productivity and competitiveness.

Keywords: maintenance, TPM, efficiency, productivity, strategy

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Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

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This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Kyugneun Lee, Ikjin Lee

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Parameter estimation with inverse problem often suffers from unfavorable conditions in the real world. Useless data and many input parameters make the problem complicated or insoluble. Data refinement and reformulation of the problem can solve that kind of difficulties. In this research, a method to solve the rank deficient inverse problem is suggested. A multi-physics system which has rank deficiency caused by response correlation is treated. Impeditive information is removed and the problem is reformulated to sequential estimations using Bayesian network (BN) and subset groups. At first, subset grouping of the responses is performed. Feature selection with singular value decomposition (SVD) is used for the grouping. Next, BN inference is used for sequential conditional estimation according to the group hierarchy. Directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure is organized to maximize the estimation ability. Variance ratio of response to noise is used to pairing the estimable parameters by each response.

Keywords: Bayesian network, feature selection, rank deficiency, statistical inverse analysis

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Authors: Ahmed Abbas

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Land degradation in the Lower Cheliff region leads to loss of their fertility, physical and chemical properties by secondary salinization and film forming surface or surface crust. The main factor related to runoff and soil erosion is their susceptibility to crusting caused by the impact of raindrops, which causes the reduction of the filterability of the soil. The present study aims to investigate the hydrodynamic behavior of five types of soil taken from the plain of low Cheliff under simulated rainfall by using two intensities, one moderate, and others correspond to heavy rains at low kinetic energies. Experimental results demonstrate the influence of chemical and mechanical physical properties of soils on their hydrodynamic behavior and the influence of heavy rain on the modality of the reduction in the filterability and the amount of transported sediment.

Keywords: erosion, hydrodynamic behavior, rain simulation, soil

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Authors: Neil Michael Walsh, Angelique Lombarts

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The authors propose that hospitality is ‘made’ (constituted and performed) in the encounters on the Silk-Routes. Inspired with an initial Derridean perspective on hospitality (the conditional/unconditional) and methodologically underpinned with a Delueuzian relational-rhizomatic approach, the authors contend that hospitality is (re)produced in the encounters of self/other, east/west (among others). Thus, in the spirit of performativity and using the temporal-spatial conduit of the Silk Routes (the sites of ethical, cultural, economic, and material interaction of such exchange), the authors concur that hospitality is produced at the moment in which it is performed. Key themes engaged as units of analysis become welcome, reception, hostility, (and so on) which the authors engage and examine –as they unfold- in the narratives and accounts and material legacies of those who travelled the Silk Routes between the 2nd and 18th Centuries. The preliminary results suggest that these earlier performative moments in hospitality-making on the silk routes continue to resonate and ‘form’ the hospitalities of today. Indeed, these acts of hospitality continue to reconstitute and are never a final state of affairs.

Keywords: hospitality-genealogy, interactions, hospitality-making, Silk-Routes, rhizome, relationality

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Authors: G. Wimmers

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The University of Northern British Columbia needed a new laboratory building for the Master of Engineering in Integrated Wood Design Program and its new Civil Engineering Program. Since the University is committed to reducing its environmental footprint and because the Master of Engineering Program is actively involved in research of energy efficient buildings, the decision was made to request the energy efficiency of the Passive House Standard in the Request for Proposals. The building is located in Prince George in Northern British Columbia, a city located at the northern edge of climate zone 6 with an average low between -8 and -10.5 in the winter months. The footprint of the building is 30m x 30m with a height of about 10m. The building consists of a large open space for the shop and laboratory with a small portion of the floorplan being two floors, allowing for a mezzanine level with a few offices as well as mechanical and storage rooms. The total net floor area is 1042m² and the building’s gross volume 9686m³. One key requirement of the Passive House Standard is the airtight envelope with an airtightness of < 0.6 ach@50Pa. In the past, we have seen that this requirement can be challenging to reach for industrial buildings. When testing for air tightness, it is important to test in both directions, pressurization, and depressurization, since the airflow through all leakages of the building will, in reality, happen simultaneously in both directions. A specific detail or situation such as overlapping but not sealed membranes might be airtight in one direction, due to the valve effect, but are opening up when tested in the opposite direction. In this specific project, the advantage was the overall very compact envelope and the good volume to envelope area ratio. The building had to be very airtight and the details for the windows and doors installation as well as all transitions from walls to roof and floor, the connections of the prefabricated wall panels and all penetrations had to be carefully developed to allow for maximum airtightness. The biggest challenges were the specific components of this industrial building, the large bay door for semi-trucks and the dust extraction system for the wood processing machinery. The testing was carried out in accordance with EN 132829 (method A) as specified in the International Passive House Standard and the volume calculation was also following the Passive House guideline resulting in a net volume of 7383m3, excluding all walls, floors and suspended ceiling volumes. This paper will explore the details and strategies used to achieve an airtightness of 0.07 ach@50Pa, to the best of our knowledge the lowest value achieved in North America so far following the test protocol of the International Passive House Standard and discuss the crucial steps throughout the project phases and the most challenging details.

Keywords: air changes, airtightness, envelope design, industrial building, passive house

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Authors: Nadjiba Mezıou-Cheboutı, Amel Merabet, Yahia Cheboutı, Nassima Behidj, Fatima-Zohra Bıssaad et Salahedine Doumandjı

Abstract:

Among the Anacardiaceae, the fruit (Pistacia vera L.) is the only species that produces edible fruits. The introduction of real pistachio was made in the early sixties by an FAO program in Algeria in several regions in the northern part of Algeria: Tlemcen, Sidi Bel Abbes, Batna, Bouira M'sila . Chemical analyzes of seeds pistachios were made on seeds from an orchard that localizes to Bechloul (Bouira) located in bioclimatic sub-humid temperate winter floor. Analyzes reveal dry matter content of 3.60 ± 0.45%, the water rate is 7.21 ± 0.36%. However, the fat content is 46.00 ± 0.90%, in average blood sugar, it is 4.02 ± 0.47%, the protein reached 29.88 ± 0.76%. Given the very interesting that high-fat food nutritional values, culture pistachio must be considered for its extension in Algeria.

Keywords: pistachio, dry matter, fat, sugar, protein

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Promothes Saha

Abstract:

Recently, transportation engineering industry members at the study university showed concern that students lacked the skills needed to solve real-world engineering problems using spreadsheet data analysis. In response to the concerns shown by industry members, this study investigated how to engage students in a better way by incorporating spreadsheet analysis during class - also, help them learn the course topics. Helping students link theoretical knowledge to real-world problems can be a challenge. In this effort, in-class activities and worksheets were redesigned to integrate with Excel to solve example problems using built-in tools including cell referencing, equations, data analysis tool pack, solver tool, conditional formatting, charts, etc. The effectiveness of this technique was investigated using students’ evaluations of the course, enrollment data, and students’ comments. Based on the data of those criteria, it is evident that the spreadsheet activities may increase student learning.

Keywords: civil, engineering, active learning, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Nadjiba Meziou-Chebouti, Amel Merabet, Yahia Chebouti, Nassima Behidj, Salahedine Doumandji

Abstract:

Among the Anacardiaceae, the fruit (Pistacia vera L.) is the only species that produces edible fruits. The introduction of real pistachio was made in the early sixties by an FAO program in Algeria in several regions in the northern part of Algeria: Tlemcen, Sidi Bel Abbes, Batna, Bouira M'sila. Chemical analyzes of seeds pistachios were made on seeds from an orchard that localizes to Bechloul (Bouira) located in bioclimatic sub-humid temperate winter floor. Analyzes reveal dry matter content of 3.60±0.45%, the water rate is 7.21±0.36%. However, the fat content is 46.00±0.90%, in average blood sugar, it is 4.02±0.47%, the protein reached 29.88±0.76%. Given the very interesting that high-fat food nutritional values, culture pistachio must be considered for its extension in Algeria.

Keywords: pistachio, dry matter, fat, sugar, protein

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: D. Mokatsanyane, J. Jansen Van Rensburg

Abstract:

This paper analyses the influence and impact of COVID-19 on major agricultural commodity prices in South Africa. According to a World Bank report, the agricultural sector in South Africa has been unable to reduce the domestic food crisis that has been occurring over the past years, hence the increased rate of poverty, which is currently at 55.5 percent as of April 2020. Despite the significance of this sector, empirical findings concluded that the agricultural sector now accounts for 1.88 percent of South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP). Suggesting that the agricultural sector's contribution to the economy has diminished. Despite the low contribution to GDP, this primary sector continues to play an essential role in the economy. Over the past years, multiple factors have contributed to the soaring commodities prices, namely, climate shocks, biofuel demand, demand and supply shocks, the exchange rate, speculation in commodity derivative markets, trade restrictions, and economic growth. The COVID-19 outbursts have currently disturbed the supply and demand of staple crops. To address the disruption, the government has exempted the agricultural sector from closure and restrictions on movement. The spread of COVID-19 has caused turmoil all around the world, but mostly in developing countries. According to Statistic South Africa, South Africa's economy decreased by seven percent in 2020. Consequently, this has arguably made the agricultural sector the most affected sector since slumped economic growth negatively impacts food security, trade, farm livelihood, and greenhouse gas emissions. South Africa is sensitive to the fruitfulness of global food chains. Restrictions in trade, reinforced sanitary control systems, and border controls have influenced food availability and prices internationally. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of agricultural commodity prices pre-and during-COVID to determine the impact of volatility drivers on these crops. Historical secondary data of spot prices for the top five major commodities, namely white maize, yellow maize, wheat, soybeans, and sunflower seeds, are analysed from 01 January 2017 to 1 September 2021. The timeframe was chosen to capture price fluctuations between pre-COVID-19 (01 January 2017 to 23 March 2020) and during-COVID-19 (24 March 2020 to 01 September 2021). The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be used to measure the influence of price fluctuations. The results reveal that the commodity market has been experiencing volatility at different points. Extremely high volatility is represented during the first quarter of 2020. During this period, there was high uncertainty, and grain prices were very volatile. Despite the influence of COVID-19 on agricultural prices, the demand for these commodities is still existing and decent. During COVID-19, analysis indicates that prices were low and less volatile during the pandemic. The prices and returns of these commodities were low during COVID-19 because of the government's actions to respond to the virus's spread, which collapsed the market demand for food commodities.

Keywords: commodities market, commodity prices, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Price volatility, SAFEX

Procedia PDF Downloads 145