Search results for: approximate posterior distribution

Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River

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Authors: Hechmi Saidi, Noureddine Hamdi

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The performance of hybrid amplify and forward - decode and forward (AF-DF) hybrid radio frequency/free space optical (RF/FSO) communication system, that adopts M-ary pulse position modulation (MPPM) techniques, is analyzed. Both exact and approximate symbol-error rates (SERs) are derived. The random variations of the received optical irradiance, produced by the atmospheric turbulence, is modeled by the gamma-gamma (GG) statistical distribution. A closed-form expression for the probability density function (PDF) is derived for the whole above system is obtained. Thanks to the use of hybrid AF-DF hybrid RF/FSO configuration and MPPM, the effects of atmospheric turbulence is mitigated; hence the capacity of combating atmospheric turbulence and the transmissitted signal quality are improved.

Keywords: free space optical, gamma gamma channel, radio frequency, decode and forward, error pointing, M-ary pulse position modulation, symbol error rate

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Authors: Moataz Ammar, Ahdab Elmorshedy

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The distributed generation hosting capacity of a distribution network is typically limited at a given connection point by the upper voltage limit that can be violated due to the injection of active power into the distribution network. The upper voltage limit violation concern becomes more important as the network equivalent resistance increases with respect to its equivalent reactance. This paper investigates the impact of modifying the distribution network equivalent reactance at the point of connection such that the upper voltage limit is violated at a higher distributed generation penetration, than it would without the addition of series reactive compensation. The results show that series reactive compensation proves efficient in certain situations (based on the ratio of equivalent network reactance to equivalent network resistance at the point of connection). As opposed to the conventional case of capacitive compensation of a distribution network to reduce voltage drop, inductive compensation is seen to be more appropriate for alleviation of distributed-generation-induced voltage rise.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution networks, series compensation, voltage rise

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Authors: Adel Kara, Abdelhafid Bayadi, Hocine Terrab

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This paper presents a study of electric field distribution along of 72 kV polymeric outdoor insulators with broken sheds. Different cases of damaged insulators are modeled and both of clean and polluted cases. By 3D finite element analysis using the software package COMSOL Multiphysics 4.3b. The obtained results of potential and the electrical field distribution around insulators by 3D simulation proved that finite element computations is useful tool for studying insulation electrical field distribution.

Keywords: electric field distributions, insulator, broken sheds, potential distributions

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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Authors: Tamirat Solomon, Tadesse Faltamo, Belete Limani

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This study was conducted on the mountain Damota of Wolaita to assess the abundance and spatial distribution of two locally important indigenous medicinal plants on the mountain landscape. A total of 130 plots measuring 20x20m were established along eight systematically laid transect lines. In each plot, the abundance and distribution of Hagenia abyssinica (tree) and Pentas schiperiana Vatke (shrub) were evaluated. The abundance and distribution of H. abyssinica were evaluated by measuring height and DBH for mature trees and counting seedlings and saplings, whereas the P. schiperiana Vatke was assessed for its abundance and distribution by counting in each plot. In the entire study plots, a total of 485 H. abyssinica and 760 P. schiperiana vatake were recorded. It was observed that the distribution of the species increased while the altitude increased and the highest abundance of the species was recorded at an altitude range between 2332 and 2661m.a.s.l. However, at the altitudes below 2320 m.a.s.l., the species distributions and abundance was decreased, indicating either the ecological preference of the species or the extraction of the local community surrounding the mountain influenced the species. On average, only 28 seedlings/ha of H. abyssinica and 146/ha of P. schiperiana vatke were recorded in the study areas showing the tendency of decline in the abundance and distribution of both species. Finally, we recommend management intervention for the socially important species which are under threat on the mountain landscape.

Keywords: indigenous medicinal plants, H.abyssinic, P. schiperiana, distribution, abundance, socio-economic importance

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Authors: Luan Trong Nguyen, M. Azizur Rahman, Yusuke Tamenori, Toshihiro Yoshimura, Nozomu Iwasaki, Hiroshi Hasegawa

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This study investigated the distribution of magnesium (Mg), phosphorus (P), sulfur (S) and strontium (Sr) using micro X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) along the annual growth rings in the skeleton of Japanese red coral Paracorallium japonicum. The Mg, P and S distribution in µ-XRF mapping images correspond to the dark and light bands along the annual growth rings observed in microscopic images of the coral skeleton. The µ-XRF mapping data showed a positive correlation (r = 0.6) between P and S distribution in the coral skeleton. A contrasting distribution pattern of S and Mg along the axial skeleton of P. japonicum indicates a weak negative correlation (r = -0.2) between these two trace elements. The distribution pattern of S, P and Mg reveals linkage between their distributions and the formation of dark/light bands along the annual growth rings in the axial skeleton of P. japonicum. Sulfur and P were distributed in the organic matrix rich dark bands, while Mg was distributed in the light bands of the annual growth rings.

Keywords: µ-XRF, trace element, precious coral, Paracorallium japonicum

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Satish Chandra

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Speed and traffic volume data are collected on different sections of four lane and six lane roads in three metropolitan cities in India. Speed data are analyzed to fit the statistical distribution to individual vehicle speed data and all vehicles speed data. It is noted that speed data of individual vehicle generally follows a normal distribution but speed data of all vehicle combined at a section of urban road may or may not follow the normal distribution depending upon the composition of traffic stream. A new term Speed Spread Ratio (SSR) is introduced in this paper which is the ratio of difference in 85^th and 50^th percentile speed to the difference in 50^th and 15^th percentile speed. If SSR is unity then speed data are truly normally distributed. It is noted that on six lane urban roads, speed data follow a normal distribution only when SSR is in the range of 0.86 – 1.11. The range of SSR is validated on four lane roads also.

Keywords: normal distribution, percentile speed, speed spread ratio, traffic volume

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Authors: Waseem Al Talalwah, Shorok Ali Al Dorazi, Roger Soames

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The inferior gluteal artery is a largest branch of the anterior division of internal iliac artery. It escapes from the pelvic cavity through the greater sciatic foramen below the lower edge of piriformis. In gluteal region, it provides several muscular branches to gluteal maximus and articular branch to hip joint. Further, it provides sciatic branch to sciatic nerve. Present study explores the origin of the inferior gluteal artery of 41 cadavers in Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification, University of Dundee, UK. It arose directly from the anterior division of internal iliac artery in 39% and 45.7% indirectly as with the internal pudendal artery. Further, it arose indirectly from anterior division with internal pudendal and obturator arteries in 1.5% referred as obturatogluteopudendal trunk in 1.5%. Therefore, it arose from the anterior division of the internal iliac artery in 86.2%. However, it found to be as a branch of the posterior division of internal iliac artery in 7.7% which is either a direct branch in 6.2% as or indirect branch (as from the sciatic artery) in 1.5%. It neither arose from anterior or posterior division in 1.5% as from gluteopudendal trunk arising from the internal iliac artery bifurcation site. In few cases, the inferior gluteal artery found to be congenital absence in 4.6% which is compensated by the persistent sciatic artery. Therefore, radiologists have to aware of the origin variability of the inferior gluteal artery to alert surgeons. Knowing the origin of the inferior gluteal artery may help the surgeons to avoid iatrogenic sciatic neuropathy or gluteal claudication due to prolonged ligation in pelvic procedures such as removing prostate or of uterine fibroid.

Keywords: inferior gluteal artery, internal pudendal, sciatic nerve, sciatic artery, gluteal claudication, sciatic neuopathy

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Authors: Waleed Jarjoura

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In various cases of visual impairments, the individuals are referred to expert Ophthalmologists in order to establish a correct diagnosis. Children with visual-impairments confront various challenging experiences in life since early childhood throughout lifespan. In some cases, blind infants, especially due to congenital hydrocephalus, suffer from high intra-cranial pressure and, consequently, go through a ventriculo-peritoneal shunt surgery in order to limit the neurological symptoms or decrease the cognitive impairments. In this article, a detailed description of numerous crucial implications of the V/P shunt surgery, through the right posterior-inferior parieto-temporal cortex, on the observed preliminary capabilities that are pre-requisites for the acquisition of literacy skills in braille, basic Math competencies, braille printing which suggest Gerstmann syndrome in the blind. In addition, significant difficultiesorientation and mobility skills using the Cane, in general, organizational skills, and social interactions were observed. The primary conclusion of this report focuses on raising awareness among neuro-surgeons towards the need for alternative intracranial routes for V/P shunt implantation in blind infants that preserve the right posterior-inferior parieto-temporal cortex that is hypothesized to modulate the tactual-spatial cues in braille discrimination. A second conclusion targets educators and therapists that address the acquired dysfunctionsin blind individuals due to V/P shunt surgeries.

Keywords: congenital blindness, hydrocephalus, shunt surgery, spatial orientation

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Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

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Temperature distribution investigation in a conical diffuser fitted with helical screw-tape with and without center-rod is studied numerically. A helical screw-tape is inserted in the diffuser to create swirl flow that helps to enhance the temperature distribution rate with inlet Reynolds number 4.3 x 104. Three pitch lengths ratios (Y/L = 0.153, 0.23 and 0.307) for the helical screw-tape with and without center-rod are simulated and compared. The geometry of the conical diffuser and the inlet condition for both arrangements are kept constant. Numerical findings show that the helical screw-tape inserts without center-rod perform significantly better than the helical tape inserts with center-rod in the conical diffuser.

Keywords: diffuser, temperature distribution, CFD, pitch ratio

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Authors: Rumeysa Gunduz, Dirk Koester, Thomas Schack

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Previous behavioral studies have shown that working memory (WM) and manual actions share limited capacity cognitive resources, which in turn results in execution costs of manual actions in WM. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no study investigating the neurophysiology of execution costs. The current study aims to fill this research gap investigating the neurophysiology of execution costs of grasping in WM phases (encoding, maintenance, retrieval) considering verbal and visuospatial domains of WM. A WM-grasping dual task paradigm was implemented to examine execution costs. Baseline single task required performing verbal or visuospatial version of a WM task. Dual task required performing the WM task embedded in a high precision grasp to place task. 30 participants were tested in a 2 (single vs. dual task) x 2 (visuo-spatial vs. verbal WM) within subject design. Event related potentials (ERPs) were extracted for each WM phase separately in the single and dual tasks. Memory performance for visuospatial WM, but not for verbal WM, was significantly lower in the dual task compared to the single task. Encoding related ERPs in the single task revealed different ERPs of verbal WM and visuospatial WM at bilateral anterior sites and right posterior site. In the dual task, bilateral anterior difference disappeared due to bilaterally increased anterior negativities for visuospatial WM. Maintenance related ERPs in the dual task revealed different ERPs of verbal WM and visuospatial WM at bilateral posterior sites. There was also anterior negativity for visuospatial WM. Retrieval related ERPs in the single task revealed different ERPs of verbal WM and visuospatial WM at bilateral posterior sites. In the dual task, there was no difference between verbal WM and visuospatial WM. Behavioral and ERP findings suggest that execution of grasping shares cognitive resources only with visuospatial WM, which in turn results in domain specific execution costs. Moreover, ERP findings suggest unique patterns of costs in each WM phase, which supports the idea that each WM phase reflects a separate cognitive process. This study not only contributes to the understanding of cognitive principles of manual action control, but also contributes to the understanding of WM as an entity consisting of separate modalities and cognitive processes.

Keywords: dual task, grasping execution, neurophysiology, working memory domains, working memory phases

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Authors: Thong Lantharthong, Nattchote Rugthaicharoencheep, Att Phayomhom

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This paper presents the electrical effect of two neighboring distribution substation during the construction phase. The size of auxiliary grounding grid have an effect on entire grounding system. The bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the lower the GPR and maximum touch voltage, with the exception that when the two grids are unconnected, i.e. the bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the higher the maximum step voltage. The results in this paper could be served as design guideline of grounding system, and perhaps remedy of some troublesome grounding grids in power distribution’s system. Modeling and simulation is carried out on the Current Distribution Electromagnetic interference Grounding and Soil structure (CDEGS) program. The simulation results exhibit the design and analysis of power system grounding and perhaps could be set as a standard in grounding system design and modification in distribution substations.

Keywords: grounding system, touch voltage, step voltage, safety criteria

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Authors: Abdenour Bourabaa, Malika Fekih, Mohamed Saighi

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A numerical investigation of the fin efficiency and temperature distribution of an annular fin under dehumidification has been presented in this paper. The non-homogeneous second order differential equation that describes the temperature distribution from the fin base to the fin tip has been solved using the central finite difference method. The effects of variations in parameters including relative humidity, air temperature, air face velocity on temperature distribution and fin efficiency are investigated and compared with those under fully dry fin conditions. Also, the effect of fin pitch on the dimensionless temperature has been studied.

Keywords: annular fin, dehumidification, fin efficiency, heat and mass transfer, wet fin

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Authors: Kiran Nair, Jincy George, Suhaib Anagreh

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Artificial intelligence (AI) in a marketing context is a form of a deterministic tool designed to optimize and enhance marketing tasks, research tools, and techniques. It is on the verge of transforming marketing roles and revolutionize the entire industry. This paper aims to explore the current dissemination of the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the marketing mix, reviewing the scope and application of AI in various aspects of sales and distribution management. The paper also aims at identifying the areas of the strong impact of AI in factors of sales and distribution management such as distribution channel, purchase automation, customer service, merchandising automation, and shopping experiences. This is a qualitative research paper that aims to examine the impact of AI on sales and distribution management of 30 multinational brands in six different industries, namely: airline; automobile; banking and insurance; education; information technology; retail and telecom. Primary data is collected by means of interviews and questionnaires from a sample of 100 marketing managers that have been selected using convenient sampling method. The data is then analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The study reveals that AI applications are extensively used in sales and distribution management, with a strong impact on various factors such as identifying new distribution channels, automation in merchandising, customer service, and purchase automation as well as sales processes. International brands have already integrated AI extensively in their day-to-day operations for better efficiency and improved market share while others are investing heavily in new AI applications for gaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, sales and distribution, marketing mix, distribution channel, customer service

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Authors: T. J. Ellapen, N. Acampora, S. Dawson, J. Arling, C. Van Niekerk, H. J. Van Heerden

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Objectives: To determine the comparative proprioceptive performance of injured versus non-injured adolescent female hockey players when wearing an ankle brace. Methods: Data were collected from 100 high school players who belonged to the Highway Secondary School KZN Hockey league via voluntary parental informed consent and player assent. Players completed an injury questionnaire probing the prevalence and nature of hockey injuries (March-August 2013). Subsequently players completed a Biodex proprioceptive test with and without an ankle brace. Probability was set at p≤ 0.05. Results: Twenty-two players sustained ankle injuries within the six months (p<0.001). Injured players performed similarly without bracing Right Anterior Posterior Index (RAPI): 2.8±0.9; Right Medial Lateral Index (RMLI): 1.9±0.7; Left Anterior Posterior Index (LAPI) LAPI: 2.7; Left Medial Lateral Index (LMLI): 1.7±0.6) as compared to bracing (RAPI: 2.7±1.4; RMLI: 1.8±0.6; LAPI: 2.6±1.0; LMLI: 1.5±0.6) (p>0.05). However, bracing (RAPI: 2.2±0.8; RMLI: 1.5±0.5; LAPI: 2.4±0.9; MLI: 1.5±0.5) improved the ankle stability of the non-injured group as compared to their unbraced performance (RAPI: 2.5±1.0; RMLI: 1.8±0.8; LAPI: 2.8±1.1; LMLI: 1.8±0.6) (p<0.05). Conclusion: Ankle bracing did not enhance the stability of injured ankles. However ankle bracing has an ergogenic effect enhancing the stability of healthy ankles.

Keywords: hockey, proprioception, ankle, bracing

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Authors: Taha Zakaraia Abdel Wahid

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The behavior of the unsteady non-equilibrium distribution function for a dilute gas under the effect of non-linear thermal radiation field is presented. For the best of our knowledge this is done for the first time at all. The distinction and comparisons between the unsteady perturbed and the unsteady equilibrium velocity distribution functions are illustrated. The equilibrium time for the dilute gas is determined for the first time. The non-equilibrium thermodynamic properties of the system (gas+the heated plate) are investigated. The results are applied to the Argon gas, for various values of radiation field intensity. 3D-Graphics illustrating the calculated variables are drawn to predict their behavior. The results are discussed.

Keywords: dilute gas, radiation field, exact solutions, travelling wave method, unsteady BGK model, irreversible thermodynamics, unsteady non-equilibrium distribution functions

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Authors: Fatemah A. Alqallaf, Debasis Kundu

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution which has a singular component. The proposed bivariate distribution can be used when the marginals have heavy-tailed distributions, and they have non-monotone hazard functions. Due to the presence of the singular component, it can be used quite effectively when there are ties in the data. Since it has four parameters, it is a very flexible bivariate distribution, and it can be used quite effectively for analyzing various bivariate data sets. Several dependency properties and dependency measures have been obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, and it involves solving a four-dimensional optimization problem. To avoid that, we have proposed to use an EM algorithm, and it involves solving only one non-linear equation at each `E'-step. Hence, the implementation of the proposed EM algorithm is very straight forward in practice. Extensive simulation experiments and the analysis of one data set have been performed. We have observed that the proposed bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution can be used for modeling dependent competing risks data. One data set has been analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Block and Basu bivariate distributions, competing risks, EM algorithm, Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, maximum likelihood estimators

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Önder M. Özdem

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Producing and circulating films of professional standards have become technically easier with the development and widespread use of digital recording and distribution technologies. Additionally, film festivals on common platforms have rapidly increased in numbers and diversity. On the one hand, no-charge applications result in excessive submissions; thus, it complicates the evaluation and selection process. On the other hand, festival’s high submission fees may make the distribution of films with a limited budget very difficult. Inspired by the author’s engagement with the film industry as both a pre-jury member of an international film festival and an applicant to many festivals, this study discusses the causes and consequences of the increasing commercialization of film festivals. The author’s double identity, both as a jury and an applicant, provides a comparative perspective through which one can unfold the different dimensions and dynamics in the film production and distribution processes.

Keywords: commercialization, film distribution, film festivals, film production

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Authors: Mirzashahi Babak, Mansouri Pejman, Najafi Arvin, Farzan Mahmoud

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Introduction: There are several surgical treatment choices for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). The aim of this study is to evaluate clinical outcomes and surgical complications in patients with cervical disk degeneration (CDD) undergoing either anterior cervical discectomy with or without fusion or cervical laminectomy and fusion. Methods: This prospective case series study included 45 consecutive patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy between January 2010 and November 2014. There were 28 males and 17 females, with a mean age of 47 (range 37-68) years. The mean clinical follow-up was 14 months (range 3-24 months). The Neck Disability Index (NDI), visual analog scale (VAS) neck and arm pain, Short Form-36 (SF-36) were used as the functional outcome measurements. All of the complications in our patients were recorded. Results: In our study group, 26 patients underwent only one or two level anterior cervical discectomy. Ten patients underwent anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) and nine cases underwent posterior laminectomy and fusion. We have found a statistically significant improvement between mean preoperative (29, range 19-43) and postoperative (7, range 0-12) NDI scores following surgery (P < 0.05). Also, there was a statistically significant difference between pre and post-operative VAS and SF-36 score (p < 0.05). There was a 7% overall complication rate (n = 3). The only complication in our patients was surgical site cellulitis which has been managed with oral antibiotic therapy. Conclusion: Both anterior cervical discectomy with or without fusion or posterior laminectomy and fusion are safe and efficacious treatment options for the management of CSM. The clinical outcomes seem to be fairly reproducible.

Keywords: cervical, myelopathy, discectomy, fusion, laminectomy

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Authors: I. Touaїbia, E. Azzag, O. Narjes

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Power supply networks are growing continuously and their reliability is getting more important than ever. The complexity of the whole network comprises numerous components that can fail and interrupt the power supply for the end user. Underground distribution systems are normally exposed to permanent faults, due to specific construction characteristics. In these systems, visual inspection cannot be performed. In order to enhance service restoration, accurate fault location techniques must be applied. This paper describes the different faults that affect the underground distribution system of SONELGAZ (National Society of Electricity and Gas of Algeria), and cable fault location procedure with impulse reflection method (TDR), based in the analyses of the cable response of the electromagnetic impulse, allows cable fault prelocation. The results are obtained from real test in the underground distribution feeder from electrical network of energy distribution company of Souk-Ahras, in order to know the influence of cable characteristics in the types and frequency of faults.

Keywords: distribution networks, fault location, TDR, underground cable

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Authors: Ashkan Golgoon, Arash Yavari

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In this paper, we present some analytical solutions for the stress fields of nonlinear anisotropic solids with line and point defects distributions. In particular, we determine the induced stress fields of a parallel cylindrically-symmetric distribution of screw dislocations in infinite orthotropic and monoclinic media as well as a cylindrically-symmetric distribution of parallel wedge disclinations in an infinite orthotropic medium. For a given distribution of edge dislocations, the material manifold is constructed using Cartan's moving frames and the stress field is obtained assuming that the medium is orthotropic. Also, we consider a spherically-symmetric distribution of point defects in a transversely isotropic spherical ball. We show that for an arbitrary incompressible transversely isotropic ball with the radial material preferred direction, a uniform point defect distribution results in a uniform hydrostatic stress field inside the spherical region the distribution is supported in. Finally, we find the stresses induced by a discombination in an orthotropic medium.

Keywords: defects, disclinations, dislocations, monoclinic solids, nonlinear elasticity, orthotropic solids, transversely isotropic solids

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Authors: A. Amiri Delouei

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In the current study, two-dimensional unsteady heat conduction in a functionally graded cylinder is studied analytically. The temperature distribution is in radial and longitudinal directions. Heat conduction coefficients are considered a power function of radius both in radial and longitudinal directions. The proposed solution can exactly satisfy the boundary conditions. Analytical unsteady temperature distribution for different parameters of functionally graded cylinder is investigated. The achieved exact solution is useful for thermal stress analysis of functionally graded cylinders. Regarding the analytical approach, this solution can be used to understand the concepts of heat conduction in functionally graded materials.

Keywords: functionally graded materials, unsteady heat conduction, cylinder, temperature distribution

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Authors: Mansour Mohieddin Ghomshei, Reza Shahi

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Laminated composite tubes with adhesively bonded joints are widely used in aerospace and automotive industries as well as oil and gas industries. In this research, adhesively tubular single lap joints subjected to torsional and hygrothermal loadings are studied using the differential quadrature method (DQM). The analysis is based on the classical shell theory. At first, an approximate closed form solution is developed by omitting the lateral deflections in the connecting tubes. Using the analytical model, the circumferential displacements in tubes and the shear stresses in the interfacing adhesive layer are determined. Then, a numerical formulation is presented using DQM in which the lateral deflections are taken into account. By using the DQM formulation, the circumferential and radial displacements in tubes as well as shear and peel stresses in the adhesive layer are calculated. Results obtained from the proposed DQM solutions are compared well with those of the approximate analytical model and those of some published references. Finally using the DQM model, parametric studies are carried out to investigate the influence of various parameters such as adhesive layer thickness, torsional loading, overlap length, tubes radii, relative humidity, and temperature.

Keywords: adhesively bonded joint, differential quadrature method (DQM), hygrothermal, laminated composite tube

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Authors: Soban Najam, S. M. Jahanzeb, Ahmed Sohail, Faraz Idris Khan

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With the recent increase in reliance on Gas as the primary source of energy across the world, there has been a lot of research conducted on gas distribution networks. As the complexity and size of these networks grow, so does the leakage of gas in the distribution network. One of the most crucial factors in the production and distribution of gas is UFG or Unaccounted for Gas. The presence of UFG signifies that there is a difference between the amount of gas distributed, and the amount of gas billed. Our approach is to use information that we acquire from several specified points in the network. This information will be used to calculate the loss occurring in the network using the developed algorithm. The Algorithm can also identify the leakages at any point of the pipeline so we can easily detect faults and rectify them within minimal time, minimal efforts and minimal resources.

Keywords: FLA, fault location analysis, GDN, gas distribution network, GIS, geographic information system, NMS, network Management system, OMS, outage management system, SSGC, Sui Southern gas company, UFG, unaccounted for gas

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Authors: Al Omari Mohammed Ahmed

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This paper focuses on Maximum Likelihood Estimator with Covariate. Covariates are incorporated into the Weibull model. Under this regression model with regards to maximum likelihood estimator, the parameters of the covariate, shape parameter, survival function and hazard rate of the Weibull regression distribution with right censored data are estimated. The mean square error (MSE) and absolute bias are used to compare the performance of Weibull regression distribution. For the simulation comparison, the study used various sample sizes and several specific values of the Weibull shape parameter.

Keywords: weibull regression distribution, maximum likelihood estimator, survival function, hazard rate, right censoring

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Authors: Rong-Tsorng Wang

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In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (or CatEPut) with non-homogeneous loss and approximated compound distributions. We assume that the loss claims arrival process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) representing the clustering occurrences of loss claims, the size of loss claims is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and the accumulated loss distribution forms a compound distribution and is approximated by a heavy-tailed distribution. A numerical example is given to calibrate parameters, and we discuss how the value of CatEPut is affected by the changes of parameters in the pricing model we provided.

Keywords: catastrophe equity put options, compound distributions, nonhomogeneous Poisson process, pricing model

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Authors: Amir Reza Asnafi, Masoumeh Kazemizadeh, Najmeh Salemi

Abstract:

Due to the diversity of information resources in the web0.2 environment, which is increasing in number from time to time, the social tagging system should be used to discuss Internet resources. Studying the relevance of social tags to thematic headings can help enrich resources and make them more accessible to resources. The present research is of applied-theoretical type and research method of content analysis. In this study, using the listing method and content analysis, the level of accurate, approximate, relative, and non-conformity of social labels of books available in the field of information science and bibliography of Kitabrah website with Persian subject headings was determined. The exact matching of subject headings with social tags averaged 22 items, the approximate matching of subject headings with social tags averaged 36 items, the relative matching of thematic headings with social tags averaged 36 social items, and the average matching titles did not match the title. The average is 116. According to the findings, the exact matching of subject headings with social labels is the lowest and the most inconsistent. This study showed that the average non-compliance of subject headings with social labels is even higher than the sum of the three types of exact, relative, and approximate matching. As a result, the relevance of thematic titles to social labels is low. Due to the fact that the subject headings are in the form of static text and users are not allowed to interact and insert new selected words and topics, and on the other hand, in websites based on Web 2 and based on the social classification system, this possibility is available for users. An important point of the present study and the studies that have matched the syntactic and semantic matching of social labels with thematic headings is that the degree of conformity of thematic headings with social labels is low. Therefore, these two methods can complement each other and create a hybrid cataloging that includes subject headings and social tags. The low level of conformity of thematic headings with social tags confirms the results of backgrounds and writings that have compared the social tags of books with the thematic headings of the Library of Congress. It is not enough to match social labels with thematic headings. It can be said that these two methods can be complementary.

Keywords: Web 2/0, social tags, subject headings, hybrid cataloging

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