Search results for: analyst forecast dispersion
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1124

Search results for: analyst forecast dispersion

914 Elastodynamic Response of Shear Wave Dispersion in a Multi-Layered Concentric Cylinders Composed of Reinforced and Piezo-Materials

Authors: Sunita Kumawat, Sumit Kumar Vishwakarma

Abstract:

The present study fundamentally focuses on analyzing the limitations and transference of horizontally polarized Shear waves(SH waves) in a four-layered compounded cylinder. The geometrical structure comprises of concentric cylinders of infinite length composed of self-reinforced (SR), fibre-reinforced (FR), piezo-magnetic (PM), and piezo-electric(PE) materials. The entire structure is assumed to be pre stressed along the azimuthal direction. In order to make the structure sensitive to the application pertaining to sensors and actuators, the PM and PE cylinders have been categorically placed in the outer part of the geometry. Whereas in order to provide stiffness and stability to the structure, the inner part consists of self-reinforced and fibre-reinforced media. The common boundary between each of the cylinders has been essentially considered as imperfectly bounded. At the interface of PE and PM media, mechanical, electrical, magnetic, and inter-coupled types of imperfections have been exhibited. The closed-form of dispersion relation has been deduced for two contrast cases i.e. electrically open magnetically short(EOMS) and electrically short and magnetically open ESMO circuit conditions. Dispersion curves have been plotted to illustrate the salient features of parameters like normalized imperfect interface parameters, initial stresses, and radii of the concentric cylinders. The comparative effect of each one of these parameters on the phase velocity of the wave has been enlisted and marked individually. Every graph has been presented with two consecutive modes in succession for a comprehensive understanding. This theoretical study may be implemented to improvise the performance of surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensors and actuators consisting of piezo-electric quartz and piezo-composite concentric cylinders.

Keywords: self-reinforced, fibre-reinforced, piezo-electric, piezo-magnetic, interfacial imperfection

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913 Novel Adaptive Radial Basis Function Neural Networks Based Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting of Jordanian Power Grid

Authors: Eyad Almaita

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In this paper, a novel adaptive Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) algorithm is used to forecast the hour by hour electrical load demand in Jordan. A small and effective RBFNN model is used to forecast the hourly total load demand based on a small number of features. These features are; the load in the previous day, the load in the same day in the previous week, the temperature in the same hour, the hour number, the day number, and the day type. The proposed adaptive RBFNN model can enhance the reliability of the conventional RBFNN after embedding the network in the system. This is achieved by introducing an adaptive algorithm that allows the change of the weights of the RBFNN after the training process is completed, which will eliminates the need to retrain the RBFNN model again. The data used in this paper is real data measured by National Electrical Power co. (Jordan). The data for the period Jan./2012-April/2013 is used train the RBFNN models and the data for the period May/2013- Sep. /2013 is used to validate the models effectiveness.

Keywords: load forecasting, adaptive neural network, radial basis function, short-term, electricity consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 328
912 Comparing Xbar Charts: Conventional versus Reweighted Robust Estimation Methods for Univariate Data Sets

Authors: Ece Cigdem Mutlu, Burak Alakent

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Maintaining the quality of manufactured products at a desired level depends on the stability of process dispersion and location parameters and detection of perturbations in these parameters as promptly as possible. Shewhart control chart is the most widely used technique in statistical process monitoring to monitor the quality of products and control process mean and variability. In the application of Xbar control charts, sample standard deviation and sample mean are known to be the most efficient conventional estimators in determining process dispersion and location parameters, respectively, based on the assumption of independent and normally distributed datasets. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that the real-world data would be normally distributed. In the cases of estimated process parameters from Phase I data clouded with outliers, efficiency of traditional estimators is significantly reduced, and performance of Xbar charts are undesirably low, e.g. occasional outliers in the rational subgroups in Phase I data set may considerably affect the sample mean and standard deviation, resulting a serious delay in detection of inferior products in Phase II. For more efficient application of control charts, it is required to use robust estimators against contaminations, which may exist in Phase I. In the current study, we present a simple approach to construct robust Xbar control charts using average distance to the median, Qn-estimator of scale, M-estimator of scale with logistic psi-function in the estimation of process dispersion parameter, and Harrell-Davis qth quantile estimator, Hodge-Lehmann estimator and M-estimator of location with Huber psi-function and logistic psi-function in the estimation of process location parameter. Phase I efficiency of proposed estimators and Phase II performance of Xbar charts constructed from these estimators are compared with the conventional mean and standard deviation statistics both under normality and against diffuse-localized and symmetric-asymmetric contaminations using 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations on MATLAB. Consequently, it is found that robust estimators yield parameter estimates with higher efficiency against all types of contaminations, and Xbar charts constructed using robust estimators have higher power in detecting disturbances, compared to conventional methods. Additionally, utilizing individuals charts to screen outlier subgroups and employing different combination of dispersion and location estimators on subgroups and individual observations are found to improve the performance of Xbar charts.

Keywords: average run length, M-estimators, quality control, robust estimators

Procedia PDF Downloads 175
911 Local Binary Patterns-Based Statistical Data Analysis for Accurate Soccer Match Prediction

Authors: Mohammad Ghahramani, Fahimeh Saei Manesh

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Winning a soccer game is based on thorough and deep analysis of the ongoing match. On the other hand, giant gambling companies are in vital need of such analysis to reduce their loss against their customers. In this research work, we perform deep, real-time analysis on every soccer match around the world that distinguishes our work from others by focusing on particular seasons, teams and partial analytics. Our contributions are presented in the platform called “Analyst Masters.” First, we introduce various sources of information available for soccer analysis for teams around the world that helped us record live statistical data and information from more than 50,000 soccer matches a year. Our second and main contribution is to introduce our proposed in-play performance evaluation. The third contribution is developing new features from stable soccer matches. The statistics of soccer matches and their odds before and in-play are considered in the image format versus time including the halftime. Local Binary patterns, (LBP) is then employed to extract features from the image. Our analyses reveal incredibly interesting features and rules if a soccer match has reached enough stability. For example, our “8-minute rule” implies if 'Team A' scores a goal and can maintain the result for at least 8 minutes then the match would end in their favor in a stable match. We could also make accurate predictions before the match of scoring less/more than 2.5 goals. We benefit from the Gradient Boosting Trees, GBT, to extract highly related features. Once the features are selected from this pool of data, the Decision trees decide if the match is stable. A stable match is then passed to a post-processing stage to check its properties such as betters’ and punters’ behavior and its statistical data to issue the prediction. The proposed method was trained using 140,000 soccer matches and tested on more than 100,000 samples achieving 98% accuracy to select stable matches. Our database from 240,000 matches shows that one can get over 20% betting profit per month using Analyst Masters. Such consistent profit outperforms human experts and shows the inefficiency of the betting market. Top soccer tipsters achieve 50% accuracy and 8% monthly profit in average only on regional matches. Both our collected database of more than 240,000 soccer matches from 2012 and our algorithm would greatly benefit coaches and punters to get accurate analysis.

Keywords: soccer, analytics, machine learning, database

Procedia PDF Downloads 220
910 Field Production Data Collection, Analysis and Reporting Using Automated System

Authors: Amir AlAmeeri, Mohamed Ibrahim

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Various data points are constantly being measured in the production system, and due to the nature of the wells, these data points, such as pressure, temperature, water cut, etc.., fluctuations are constant, which requires high frequency monitoring and collection. It is a very difficult task to analyze these parameters manually using spreadsheets and email. An automated system greatly enhances efficiency, reduce errors, the need for constant emails which take up disk space, and frees up time for the operator to perform other critical tasks. Various production data is being recorded in an oil field, and this huge volume of data can be seen as irrelevant to some, especially when viewed on its own with no context. In order to fully utilize all this information, it needs to be properly collected, verified and stored in one common place and analyzed for surveillance and monitoring purposes. This paper describes how data is recorded by different parties and departments in the field, and verified numerous times as it is being loaded into a repository. Once it is loaded, a final check is done before being entered into a production monitoring system. Once all this is collected, various calculations are performed to report allocated production. Calculated production data is used to report field production automatically. It is also used to monitor well and surface facility performance. Engineers can use this for their studies and analyses to ensure field is performing as it should be, predict and forecast production, and monitor any changes in wells that could affect field performance.

Keywords: automation, oil production, Cheleken, exploration and production (E&P), Caspian Sea, allocation, forecast

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
909 Wind Power Forecasting Using Echo State Networks Optimized by Big Bang-Big Crunch Algorithm

Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

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In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

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908 A Fuzzy Inference System for Predicting Air Traffic Demand Based on Socioeconomic Drivers

Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

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The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

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907 Coupling Static Multiple Light Scattering Technique With the Hansen Approach to Optimize Dispersibility and Stability of Particle Dispersions

Authors: Guillaume Lemahieu, Matthias Sentis, Giovanni Brambilla, Gérard Meunier

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Static Multiple Light Scattering (SMLS) has been shown to be a straightforward technique for the characterization of colloidal dispersions without dilution, as multiply scattered light in backscattered and transmitted mode is directly related to the concentration and size of scatterers present in the sample. In this view, the use of SMLS for stability measurement of various dispersion types has already been widely described in the literature. Indeed, starting from a homogeneous dispersion, the variation of backscattered or transmitted light can be attributed to destabilization phenomena, such as migration (sedimentation, creaming) or particle size variation (flocculation, aggregation). In a view to investigating more on the dispersibility of colloidal suspensions, an experimental set-up for “at the line” SMLS experiment has been developed to understand the impact of the formulation parameters on particle size and dispersibility. The SMLS experiment is performed with a high acquisition rate (up to 10 measurements per second), without dilution, and under direct agitation. Using such experimental device, SMLS detection can be combined with the Hansen approach to optimize the dispersing and stabilizing properties of TiO₂ particles. It appears that the dispersibility and the stability spheres generated are clearly separated, arguing that lower stability is not necessarily a consequence of poor dispersibility. Beyond this clarification, this combined SMLS-Hansen approach is a major step toward the optimization of dispersibility and stability of colloidal formulations by finding solvents having the best compromise between dispersing and stabilizing properties. Such study can be intended to find better dispersion media, greener and cheaper solvents to optimize particles suspensions, reduce the content of costly stabilizing additives or satisfy product regulatory requirements evolution in various industrial fields using suspensions (paints & inks, coatings, cosmetics, energy).

Keywords: dispersibility, stability, Hansen parameters, particles, solvents

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906 A Prediction of Electrical Cost for High-Rise Building Construction

Authors: Picha Sriprachan

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The increase in electricity prices affects the cost of high-rise building construction. The objectives of this research are to study the electrical cost, trend of electrical cost and to forecast electrical cost of high-rise building construction. The methods of this research are: 1) to study electrical payment formats, cost data collection methods, and the factors affecting electrical cost of high-rise building construction, 2) to study the quantity and trend of cumulative percentage of the electrical cost, and 3) to forecast the electrical cost for different types of high-rise buildings. The results of this research show that the average proportion between electrical cost and the value of the construction project is 0.87 percent. The proportion of electrical cost for residential, office and commercial, and hotel buildings are closely proportional. If construction project value increases, the proportion of electrical cost and the value of the construction project will decrease. However, there is a relationship between the amount of electrical cost and the value of the construction project. During the structural construction phase, the amount of electrical cost will increase and during structural and architectural construction phase, electrical cost will be maximum. The cumulative percentage of the electrical cost is related to the cumulative percentage of the high-rise building construction cost in the same direction. The amount of service space of the building, number of floors and the duration of the construction affect the electrical cost of construction. The electrical cost of construction forecasted by using linear regression equation is close to the electrical cost forecasted by using the proportion of electrical cost and value of the project.

Keywords: high-rise building construction, electrical cost, construction phase, architectural phase

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905 Loan Supply and Asset Price Volatility: An Experimental Study

Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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904 Nonlinear Internal Waves in Rotating Ocean

Authors: L. A. Ostrovsky, Yu. A. Stepanyants

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Effect of Earth rotation on nonlinear waves is a practically important and theoretically challenging problem of fluid mechanics and geophysics. Whereas the large-scale, geostrophic processes such as Rossby waves are a classical object of oceanic and atmospheric physics, rotation effects on mesoscale waves are not well studied. In particular, the Coriolis force can radically modify the behavior of nonlinear internal gravity waves in the ocean having spatial scales of 1-10 kilometers and time durations of few hours. In the last decade, such a non-trivial behavior was observed more than once. Similar effects are possible for magnetic sound in the ionosphere. Here we outline the main physical peculiarities in the behavior of nonlinear internal waves due to the rotation effect and present some results of our recent studies. The consideration is based on the fourth-order equation derived by one of the authors as a rotation-modified Korteweg–de Vries (rKdV) equation which includes two types of dispersion: one is responsible for the finiteness of depth as in the classical KdV equation; another is due to the Coriolis effect. This equation is, in general, non-integrable; moreover, under the conditions typical of oceanic waves (positive dispersion parameter), it does not allow solitary solutions at all. In the opposite case (negative dispersion) which is possible for, e.g., magnetic sound, solitary solutions do exist and can form complex bound states (multisoliton). Another non-trivial properties of nonlinear internal waves with rotation include, to name a few, the ‘terminal’ damping of the initial KdV soliton disappearing in a finite time due to radiation losses caused by Earth’s rotation, and eventual transformation of a KdV soliton into a wave packet (an envelope soliton). The new results to be discussed refer to the interaction of a soliton with a long background wave. It is shown, in particular, that in this case internal solitons can exist since the radiation losses are compensated by energy pumping from the background wave. Finally, the relevant oceanic observations of rotation effect on internal waves are briefly described.

Keywords: Earth rotation, internal waves, nonlinear waves, solitons

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903 Using Vulnerability to Reduce False Positive Rate in Intrusion Detection Systems

Authors: Nadjah Chergui, Narhimene Boustia

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Intrusion Detection Systems are an essential tool for network security infrastructure. However, IDSs have a serious problem which is the generating of massive number of alerts, most of them are false positive ones which can hide true alerts and make the analyst confused to analyze the right alerts for report the true attacks. The purpose behind this paper is to present a formalism model to perform correlation engine by the reduction of false positive alerts basing on vulnerability contextual information. For that, we propose a formalism model based on non-monotonic JClassicδє description logic augmented with a default (δ) and an exception (є) operator that allows a dynamic inference according to contextual information.

Keywords: context, default, exception, vulnerability

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902 Flotation Recovery of Gold-Loaded Fine Activated Carbon Using Emulsified Diesel and Kerosene as Collectors

Authors: Emmanuel Jr. Ballad, Herman Mendoza

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The recovery of fine activated carbon with adsorbed gold in the cyanidation tailings of a small-scale gold plant was investigated due to the high amount of gold present. In the study, collectors that were used are kerosene and diesel. Emulsification of the oils was done to improve its collecting property, thus also the recovery. It was found out that the best hydrophile lypophile balance (HLB) of emulsified diesel and kerosene oil is 13 and 12 respectively. The amount of surfactants (SPAN 20 and TWEEN 20) for the best stability of the emulsified oils was found to be 10% in both kerosene and diesel. Optical microscopy showed that the oil dispersion in the water forms spherical droplets like features. The higher the stability, the smaller the droplets and their number were increasing. The smaller droplets indicate better dispersion of oil in the water. Consequently, it will have a greater chance of oil and activated carbon particle interaction during flotation. Due to the interaction of dispersed oil phase with carbon, the hydrophobicity of the carbon will be improved and will be attached to the bubble. Thus, flotation recovery will be increased. Results showed that the recovery of the fine activated carbon using emulsified diesel or kerosene is three times more effective than using pure diesel or kerosene.

Keywords: emulsified oils, flotation, hydrophile lyophile balance, non-ionic surfactants

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901 A First-Principles Investigation of Magnesium-Hydrogen System: From Bulk to Nano

Authors: Paramita Banerjee, K. R. S. Chandrakumar, G. P. Das

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Bulk MgH2 has drawn much attention for the purpose of hydrogen storage because of its high hydrogen storage capacity (~7.7 wt %) as well as low cost and abundant availability. However, its practical usage has been hindered because of its high hydrogen desorption enthalpy (~0.8 eV/H2 molecule), which results in an undesirable desorption temperature of 3000C at 1 bar H2 pressure. To surmount the limitations of bulk MgH2 for the purpose of hydrogen storage, a detailed first-principles density functional theory (DFT) based study on the structure and stability of neutral (Mgm) and positively charged (Mgm+) Mg nanoclusters of different sizes (m = 2, 4, 8 and 12), as well as their interaction with molecular hydrogen (H2), is reported here. It has been found that due to the absence of d-electrons within the Mg atoms, hydrogen remained in molecular form even after its interaction with neutral and charged Mg nanoclusters. Interestingly, the H2 molecules do not enter into the interstitial positions of the nanoclusters. Rather, they remain on the surface by ornamenting these nanoclusters and forming new structures with a gravimetric density higher than 15 wt %. Our observation is that the inclusion of Grimme’s DFT-D3 dispersion correction in this weakly interacting system has a significant effect on binding of the H2 molecules with these nanoclusters. The dispersion corrected interaction energy (IE) values (0.1-0.14 eV/H2 molecule) fall in the right energy window, that is ideal for hydrogen storage. These IE values are further verified by using high-level coupled-cluster calculations with non-iterative triples corrections i.e. CCSD(T), (which has been considered to be a highly accurate quantum chemical method) and thereby confirming the accuracy of our ‘dispersion correction’ incorporated DFT calculations. The significance of the polarization and dispersion energy in binding of the H2 molecules are confirmed by performing energy decomposition analysis (EDA). A total of 16, 24, 32 and 36 H2 molecules can be attached to the neutral and charged nanoclusters of size m = 2, 4, 8 and 12 respectively. Ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation shows that the outermost H2 molecules are desorbed at a rather low temperature viz. 150 K (-1230C) which is expected. However, complete dehydrogenation of these nanoclusters occur at around 1000C. Most importantly, the host nanoclusters remain stable up to ~500 K (2270C). All these results on the adsorption and desorption of molecular hydrogen with neutral and charged Mg nanocluster systems indicate towards the possibility of reducing the dehydrogenation temperature of bulk MgH2 by designing new Mg-based nano materials which will be able to adsorb molecular hydrogen via this weak Mg-H2 interaction, rather than the strong Mg-H bonding. Notwithstanding the fact that in practical applications, these interactions will be further complicated by the effect of substrates as well as interactions with other clusters, the present study has implications on our fundamental understanding to this problem.

Keywords: density functional theory, DFT, hydrogen storage, molecular dynamics, molecular hydrogen adsorption, nanoclusters, physisorption

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900 Optical Signal-To-Noise Ratio Monitoring Based on Delay Tap Sampling Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Feng Wang, Shencheng Ni, Shuying Han, Shanhong You

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With the development of optical communication, optical performance monitoring (OPM) has received more and more attentions. Since optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) is directly related to bit error rate (BER), it is one of the important parameters in optical networks. Recently, artificial neural network (ANN) has been greatly developed. ANN has strong learning and generalization ability. In this paper, a method of OSNR monitoring based on delay-tap sampling (DTS) and ANN has been proposed. DTS technique is used to extract the eigenvalues of the signal. Then, the eigenvalues are input into the ANN to realize the OSNR monitoring. The experiments of 10 Gb/s non-return-to-zero (NRZ) on–off keying (OOK), 20 Gb/s pulse amplitude modulation (PAM4) and 20 Gb/s return-to-zero (RZ) differential phase-shift keying (DPSK) systems are demonstrated for the OSNR monitoring based on the proposed method. The experimental results show that the range of OSNR monitoring is from 15 to 30 dB and the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for 10 Gb/s NRZ-OOK, 20 Gb/s PAM4 and 20 Gb/s RZ-DPSK systems are 0.36 dB, 0.45 dB and 0.48 dB respectively. The impact of chromatic dispersion (CD) on the accuracy of OSNR monitoring is also investigated in the three experimental systems mentioned above.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), chromatic dispersion (CD), delay-tap sampling (DTS), optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR)

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899 Estimation of Fragility Curves Using Proposed Ground Motion Selection and Scaling Procedure

Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar

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Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve

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898 Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise Temporal Convolutional Network for Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium Ion Batteries

Authors: Jing Zhao, Dayong Liu, Shihao Wang, Xinghua Zhu, Delong Li

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Uhumanned Underwater Vehicles generally operate in the deep sea, which has its own unique working conditions. Lithium-ion power batteries should have the necessary stability and endurance for use as an underwater vehicle’s power source. Therefore, it is essential to accurately forecast how long lithium-ion batteries will last in order to maintain the system’s reliability and safety. In order to model and forecast lithium battery Remaining Useful Life (RUL), this research suggests a model based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive noise-Temporal Convolutional Net (CEEMDAN-TCN). In this study, two datasets, NASA and CALCE, which have a specific gap in capacity data fluctuation, are used to verify the model and examine the experimental results in order to demonstrate the generalizability of the concept. The experiments demonstrate the network structure’s strong universality and ability to achieve good fitting outcomes on the test set for various battery dataset types. The evaluation metrics reveal that the CEEMDAN-TCN prediction performance of TCN is 25% to 35% better than that of a single neural network, proving that feature expansion and modal decomposition can both enhance the model’s generalizability and be extremely useful in industrial settings.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, remaining useful life, complete EEMD with adaptive noise, temporal convolutional net

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897 Distribution of Traffic Volume at Fuel Station during Peak Hour Period on Arterial Road

Authors: Surachai Ampawasuvan, Supornchai Utainarumol

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Most of fuel station’ customers, who drive on the major arterial road wants to use the stations to fill fuel to their vehicle during their journey to destinations. According to the survey of traffic volume of the vehicle using fuel stations by video cameras, automatic counting tools, or questionnaires, it was found that most users prefer to use fuel stations on holiday rather than on working day. They also prefer to use fuel stations in the morning rather than in the evening. When comparing the ratio of the distribution pattern of traffic volume of the vehicle using fuel stations by video cameras, automatic counting tools, there is no significant difference. However, when comparing the ratio of peak hour (peak hour rate) of the results from questionnaires at 13 to 14 percent with the results obtained by using the methods of the Institute of Transportation Engineering (ITE), it is found that the value is similar. However, it is different from a survey by video camera and automatic traffic counting at 6 to 7 percent of about half. So, this study suggests that in order to forecast trip generation of vehicle using fuel stations on major arterial road which is mostly characterized by Though Traffic, it is recommended to use the value of half of peak hour rate, which would make the forecast for trips generation to be more precise and accurate and compatible to surrounding environment.

Keywords: peak rate, trips generation, fuel station, arterial road

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896 Solid Dispersions of Cefixime Using β-Cyclodextrin: Characterization and in vitro Evaluation

Authors: Nagasamy Venkatesh Dhandapani, Amged Awad El-Gied

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Cefixime, a BCS class II drug, is insoluble in water but freely soluble in acetone and in alcohol. The aqueous solubility of cefixime in water is poor and exhibits exceptionally slow and intrinsic dissolution rate. In the present study, cefixime and β-Cyclodextrin (β-CD) solid dispersions were prepared with a view to study the effect and influence of β-CD on the solubility and dissolution rate of this poorly aqueous soluble drug. Phase solubility profile revealed that the solubility of cefixime was increased in the presence of β-CD and was classified as AL-type. Effect of variable, such as drug:carrier ratio, was studied. Physical characterization of the solid dispersion was characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). These studies revealed that a distinct loss of drug crystallinity in the solid molecular dispersions is ostensibly accounting for enhancement of dissolution rate in distilled water. The drug release from the prepared solid dispersion exhibited a first order kinetics. Solid dispersions of cefixime showed a 6.77 times fold increase in dissolution rate over the pure drug.

Keywords: β-cyclodextrin, cefixime, dissolution, Kneading method, solid dispersions, release kinetics

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895 Statistical Scientific Investigation of Popular Cultural Heritage in the Relationship between Astronomy and Weather Conditions in the State of Kuwait

Authors: Ahmed M. AlHasem

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The Kuwaiti society has long been aware of climatic changes and their annual dates and trying to link them to astronomy in an attempt to forecast the future weather conditions. The reason for this concern is that many of the economic, social and living activities of the society depend deeply on the nature of the weather conditions directly and indirectly. In other words, Kuwaiti society, like the case of many human societies, has in the past tried to predict climatic conditions by linking them to astronomy or popular statements to indicate the timing of climate changes. Accordingly, this study was devoted to scientific investigation based on the statistical analysis of climatic data to show the accuracy and compatibility of some of the most important elements of the cultural heritage in relation to climate change and to relate it scientifically to precise climatic measurements for decades. The research has been divided into 10 topics, each topic has been focused on one legacy, whether by linking climate changes to the appearance/disappearance of star or a popular statement inherited through generations, through explain the nature and timing and thereby statistical analysis to indicate the proportion of accuracy based on official climatic data since 1962. The study's conclusion is that the relationship is weak and, in some cases, non-existent between the popular heritage and the actual climatic data. Therefore, it does not have a dependable relationship and a reliable scientific prediction between both the popular heritage and the forecast of weather conditions.

Keywords: astronomy, cultural heritage, statistical analysis, weather prediction

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894 Logistic Regression Based Model for Predicting Students’ Academic Performance in Higher Institutions

Authors: Emmanuel Osaze Oshoiribhor, Adetokunbo MacGregor John-Otumu

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In recent years, there has been a desire to forecast student academic achievement prior to graduation. This is to help them improve their grades, particularly for individuals with poor performance. The goal of this study is to employ supervised learning techniques to construct a predictive model for student academic achievement. Many academics have already constructed models that predict student academic achievement based on factors such as smoking, demography, culture, social media, parent educational background, parent finances, and family background, to name a few. This feature and the model employed may not have correctly classified the students in terms of their academic performance. This model is built using a logistic regression classifier with basic features such as the previous semester's course score, attendance to class, class participation, and the total number of course materials or resources the student is able to cover per semester as a prerequisite to predict if the student will perform well in future on related courses. The model outperformed other classifiers such as Naive bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random forest, and Adaboost, returning a 96.7% accuracy. This model is available as a desktop application, allowing both instructors and students to benefit from user-friendly interfaces for predicting student academic achievement. As a result, it is recommended that both students and professors use this tool to better forecast outcomes.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ML, logistic regression, performance, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
893 Service Quality and Consumer Behavior on Metered Taxi Services

Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

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The purposes of this research are to make comparisons in respect of the behaviors on the use of the services of metered taxi classified by the demographic factor and to study the influence of the recognition on service quality having the effect on usage behaviors of metered taxi services of consumers in Bangkok Metropolitan Areas. The samples used in this research are 400 metered taxi service users in Bangkok Metropolitan Areas and use a questionnaire as the tool for collecting the data. Analysis statistics is mean and multiple regression analysis. Results of the research revealed that the consumers recognize the overall quality of services in each aspect include tangible aspects of the service, responses to customers, assurance on the confidence, understanding and knowing of customers which is rated at the moderate level except the aspect of the assurance on the confidence and trustworthiness which are rated at a high level. For the result of a hypothetical test, it is found that the quality in providing the services on the aspect of the assurance given to the customers has the effect on the usage behaviors of metered taxi services and the aspect of the frequency on the use of the services per month which in this connection. Such variable can forecast at one point nine percent (1.9%). In addition, quality in providing the services and the aspect of the responses to customers have the effect on the behaviors on the use of metered taxi services on the aspect of the expenses on the use of services per month which in this connection, such variable can forecast at two point one percent (2.1%).

Keywords: consumer behavior, metered taxi service, satisfaction, service quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
892 Experimental Study of the Fiber Dispersion of Pulp Liquid Flow in Channels with Application to Papermaking

Authors: Masaru Sumida

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This study explored the feasibility of improving the hydraulic headbox of papermaking machines by studying the flow of wood-pulp suspensions behind a flat plate inserted in parallel and convergent channels. Pulp fiber concentrations of the wake downstream of the plate were investigated by flow visualization and optical measurements. Changes in the time-averaged and fluctuation of the fiber concentration along the flow direction were examined. In addition, the control of the flow characteristics in the two channels was investigated. The behaviors of the pulp fibers and the wake flow were found to be strongly related to the flow states in the upstream passages partitioned by the plate. The distribution of the fiber concentration was complex because of the formation of a thin water layer on the plate and the generation of Karman’s vortices at the trailing edge of the plate. Compared with the flow in the parallel channel, fluctuations in the fiber concentration decreased in the convergent channel. However, at low flow velocities, the convergent channel has a weak effect on equilibrating the time-averaged fiber concentration. This shows that a rectangular trailing edge cannot adequately disperse pulp suspensions; thus, at low flow velocities, a convergent channel is ineffective in ensuring uniform fiber concentration.

Keywords: fiber dispersion, headbox, pulp liquid, wake flow

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891 Compatibility of Copolymer-Based Grinding Aids and Sulfonated Acetone-Formaldehyde Superplasticizer

Authors: Zhang Tailong

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Compatibility between sulfonated acetone-formalehyde superplasticizer (SAF) and copolymer-based grinding aids (GA) were studied by fluidity, Zeta potential, setting time of cement pasts, initial slump and slump flow of concrete and compressive strength of concrete. ESEM, MIP, and XRD were used to investigate the changing of microstructure of interior concrete. The results indicated that GA could noticeably enhance the dispersion ability of SAF. It was found that better fluidity and slump-keeping ability of cement paste were obtained in the case of GA. In addition, GA and SAF together had a certain retardation effect on hydration of cement paste. With increasing of the GA dosage, the dispersion ability and retardation effect of admixture increased. The compressive strength of the sample made with SAF and GA after 28 days was higher than that of the control sample made only with SAF. The initial slump and slump flow of concrete increased by 10.0% and 22.9%, respectively, while 0.09 wt.% GA was used. XRD examination indicated that new products were not found in the case of GA. In addition, more dense arrangement of hydrates and lower porosity of the specimen were observed by ESEM and MIP, which contributed to higher compressive strength.

Keywords: copolymer-based grinding aids, superplasiticizer, compatibility, microstructure, cement, concrete

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890 Does Women Involvement in Politics Decrease Corruption? A Context Based Approach to the Corruption Rate Index of ASEAN Countries

Authors: Lu Anne A. Godinez, May Claudine I. Gador, Preacious G. Gumolon, Louiechi Von R. Mendoza, Neil Bryan N. Moninio

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Gender equality and women empowerment is the third of eight Millennium Development Goals. Understanding corruption’s linkages to gender equality issues and how it impacts women’s empowerment is part of the broader process of advancing women’s rights and understanding the gender dimensions of democratic governance. Taking a long view of political (corruption index) and the social (women empowerment) dimension — a view from 2015 to 2030, a context based forecast was conducted to forecast the ASEAN corruption index in the next 15 years, answering the question: “Does women political involvement decrease corruption rate index of ASEAN countries in the next 15 years?” The study have established that there will be an increase women political involvement in the ASEAN countries in the next 15 years that will cause a drop on corruption rate index. There will be a significant decline on corruption rate index in 2030. This change entails reform not only in the political aspect of progress, but to the social aspect as well. Finally, the political aspect is increasing at a constant rate however a double or triple increase of the social aspect is seen to be the key solution for corruption.

Keywords: women, women political involvement, corruption, gender equity index, economic participation, educational attainment, political empowerment, control of corruption, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability government effectiveness, political stability and corruption perception index

Procedia PDF Downloads 400
889 Numerical Simulation of Natural Gas Dispersion from Low Pressure Pipelines

Authors: Omid Adibi, Nategheh Najafpour, Bijan Farhanieh, Hossein Afshin

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Gas release from the pipelines is one of the main factors in the gas industry accidents. Released gas ejects from the pipeline as a free jet and in the growth process, the fuel gets mixed with the ambient air. Accordingly, an accidental spark will release the chemical energy of the mixture with an explosion. Gas explosion damages the equipment and endangers the life of staffs. So due to importance of safety in gas industries, prevision of accident can reduce the number of the casualties. In this paper, natural gas leakages from the low pressure pipelines are studied in two steps: 1) the simulation of mixing process and identification of flammable zones and 2) the simulation of wind effects on the mixing process. The numerical simulations were performed by using the finite volume method and the pressure-based algorithm. Also, for the grid generation the structured method was used. The results show that, in just 6.4 s after accident, released natural gas could penetrate to 40 m in vertical and 20 m in horizontal direction. Moreover, the results show that the wind speed is a key factor in dispersion process. In fact, the wind transports the flammable zones into the downstream. Hence, to improve the safety of the people and human property, it is preferable to construct gas facilities and buildings in the opposite side of prevailing wind direction.

Keywords: flammable zones, gas pipelines, numerical simulation, wind effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
888 Nature of a Supercritical Mesophase

Authors: Hamza Javar Magnier, Leslie V. Woodcock

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It has been reported that at temperatures above the critical there is no “continuity of liquid and gas”, as originally hypothesized by van der Waals. Rather, both gas and liquid phases, with characteristic properties as such, extend to supercritical temperatures. Each phase is bounded by the locus of a percolation transition, i.e. a higher-order thermodynamic phase change associated with percolation of gas clusters in a large void, or liquid interstitial vacancies in a large cluster. Between these two-phase bounds, it is reported there exists a mesophase that resembles an otherwise homogeneous dispersion of gas micro-bubbles in liquid (foam) and a dispersion of liquid micro-droplets in gas (mist). Such a colloidal-like state of a pure one-component fluid represents a hitherto unchartered equilibrium state of matter besides pure solid, liquid or gas. Here we provide compelling evidence, from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, for the existence of this supercritical mesophase and its colloidal nature. We report preliminary results of computer simulations for a model fluid using a simplistic representation of atoms or molecules, i.e. a hard-core repulsion with an attraction so short that the atoms are referred to as “adhesive spheres”. Molecular clusters, and hence percolation transitions, are unambiguously defined. Graphics of color-coded clusters show colloidal characteristics of the supercritical mesophase.

Keywords: critical phenomena, mesophase, supercritical, square-well, critical parameters

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887 Case-Based Reasoning for Build Order in Real-Time Strategy Games

Authors: Ben G. Weber, Michael Mateas

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We present a case-based reasoning technique for selecting build orders in a real-time strategy game. The case retrieval process generalizes features of the game state and selects cases using domain-specific recall methods, which perform exact matching on a subset of the case features. We demonstrate the performance of the technique by implementing it as a component of the integrated agent framework of McCoy and Mateas. Our results demonstrate that the technique outperforms nearest-neighbor retrieval when imperfect information is enforced in a real-time strategy game.

Keywords: case based reasoning, real time strategy systems, requirements elicitation, requirement analyst, artificial intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 421
886 Forecasting Thermal Energy Demand in District Heating and Cooling Systems Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks

Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

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To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
885 Application of Multiwall Carbon Nanotubes with Anionic Surfactant to Cement Paste

Authors: Maciej Szelag

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The discovery of the carbon nanotubes (CNT), has led to a breakthrough in the material engineering. The CNT is characterized by very large surface area, very high Young's modulus (about 2 TPa), unmatched durability, high tensile strength (about 50 GPa) and bending strength. Their diameter usually oscillates in the range from 1 to 100 nm, and the length from 10 nm to 10-2 m. The relatively new approach is the CNT’s application in the concrete technology. The biggest problem in the use of the CNT to cement composites is their uneven dispersion and low adhesion to the cement paste. Putting the nanotubes alone into the cement matrix does not produce any effect because they tend to agglomerate, due to their large surface area. Most often, the CNT is used as an aqueous suspension in the presence of a surfactant that has previously been sonicated. The paper presents the results of investigations of the basic physical properties (apparent density, shrinkage) and mechanical properties (compression and tensile strength) of cement paste with the addition of the multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNT). The studies were carried out on four series of specimens (made of two different Portland Cement). Within each series, samples were made with three w/c ratios – 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 (water/cement). Two series were an unmodified cement matrix. In the remaining two series, the MWCNT was added in amount of 0.1% by cement’s weight. The MWCNT was used as an aqueous dispersion in the presence of a surfactant – SDS – sodium dodecyl sulfate (C₁₂H₂₅OSO₂ONa). So prepared aqueous solution was sonicated for 30 minutes. Then the MWCNT aqueous dispersion and cement were mixed using a mechanical stirrer. The parameters were tested after 28 days of maturation. Additionally, the change of these parameters was determined after samples temperature loading at 250°C for 4 hours (thermal shock). Measurement of the apparent density indicated that cement paste with the MWCNT addition was about 30% lighter than conventional cement matrix. This is due to the fact that the use of the MWCNT water dispersion in the presence of surfactant in the form of SDS resulted in the formation of air pores, which were trapped in the volume of the material. SDS as an anionic surfactant exhibits characteristics specific to blowing agents – gaseous and foaming substances. Because of the increased porosity of the cement paste with the MWCNT, they have obtained lower compressive and tensile strengths compared to the cement paste without additive. It has been observed, however, that the smallest decreases in the compressive and tensile strength after exposure to the elevated temperature achieved samples with the MWCNT. The MWCNT (well dispersed in the cement matrix) can form bridges between hydrates in a nanoscale of the material’s structure. Thus, this may result in an increase in the coherent cohesion of the cement material subjected to a thermal shock. The obtained material could be used for the production of an aerated concrete or using lightweight aggregates for the production of a lightweight concrete.

Keywords: cement paste, elevated temperature, mechanical parameters, multiwall carbon nanotubes, physical parameters, SDS

Procedia PDF Downloads 336