Search results for: Bayes' decision
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4052

Search results for: Bayes' decision

3842 Developing Guidelines for Public Health Nurse Data Management and Use in Public Health Emergencies

Authors: Margaret S. Wright

Abstract:

Background/Significance: During many recent public health emergencies/disasters, public health nursing data has been missing or delayed, potentially impacting the decision-making and response. Data used as evidence for decision-making in response, planning, and mitigation has been erratic and slow, decreasing the ability to respond. Methodology: Applying best practices in data management and data use in public health settings, and guided by the concepts outlined in ‘Disaster Standards of Care’ models leads to the development of recommendations for a model of best practices in data management and use in public health disasters/emergencies by public health nurses. As the ‘patient’ in public health disasters/emergencies is the community (local, regional or national), guidelines for patient documentation are incorporated in the recommendations. Findings: Using model public health nurses could better plan how to prepare for, respond to, and mitigate disasters in their communities, and better participate in decision-making in all three phases bringing public health nursing data to the discussion as part of the evidence base for decision-making.

Keywords: data management, decision making, disaster planning documentation, public health nursing

Procedia PDF Downloads 221
3841 Payment for Pain: Differences between Hypothetical and Real Preferences

Authors: J. Trarbach, S. Schosser, B. Vogt

Abstract:

Decision-makers tend to prefer the first alternative over subsequent alternatives which is called the primacy effect. To reliably measure this effect, we conducted an experiment with real consequences for preference statements. Therefore, we elicit preferences of subjects using a rating scale, i.e. hypothetical preferences, and willingness to pay, i.e. real preferences, for two sequences of pain. Within these sequences, both overall intensity and duration of pain are identical. Hence, a rational decision-maker should be indifferent, whereas the primacy effect predicts a stronger preference for the first sequence. What we see is a primacy effect only for hypothetical preferences. This effect vanishes for real preferences.

Keywords: decision making, primacy effect, real incentives, willingness to pay

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
3840 An Information-Based Approach for Preference Method in Multi-Attribute Decision Making

Authors: Serhat Tuzun, Tufan Demirel

Abstract:

Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the modelling of real-life to solve problems we encounter. It is a discipline that aids decision makers who are faced with conflicting alternatives to make an optimal decision. MCDM problems can be classified into two main categories: Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) and Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM), based on the different purposes and different data types. Although various MADM techniques were developed for the problems encountered, their methodology is limited in modelling real-life. Moreover, objective results are hard to obtain, and the findings are generally derived from subjective data. Although, new and modified techniques are developed by presenting new approaches such as fuzzy logic; comprehensive techniques, even though they are better in modelling real-life, could not find a place in real world applications for being hard to apply due to its complex structure. These constraints restrict the development of MADM. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of preference methods in MADM and propose an approach based on information. For this purpose, a detailed literature review has been conducted, current approaches with their advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed. Then, the approach has been introduced. In this approach, performance values of the criteria are calculated in two steps: first by determining the distribution of each attribute and standardizing them, then calculating the information of each attribute as informational energy.

Keywords: literature review, multi-attribute decision making, operations research, preference method, informational energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
3839 An Alternative Approach for Assessing the Impact of Cutting Conditions on Surface Roughness Using Single Decision Tree

Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

Abstract:

In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
3838 Road Maintenance Management Decision System Using Multi-Criteria and Geographical Information System for Takoradi Roads, Ghana

Authors: Eric Mensah, Carlos Mensah

Abstract:

The road maintenance backlogs created as a result of deferred maintenance especially in developing countries has caused considerable deterioration of many road assets. This is usually due to difficulties encountered in selecting and prioritising maintainable roads based on objective criteria rather than some political or other less important criteria. In order to ensure judicious use of limited resources for road maintenance, five factors were identified as the most important criteria for road management within the study area. This was based on the judgements of 40 experts. The results were further used to develop weightings using the Multi-Criteria Decision Process (MCDP) to analyse and select road alternatives according to maintenance goal. Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), maintainable roads were grouped using the Jenk’s natural breaks to allow for further prioritised in order of importance for display on a dashboard of maps, charts, and tables. This reduces the problems of subjective maintenance and road selections, thereby reducing wastage of resources and easing the maintenance process through an object organised spatial decision support system.

Keywords: decision support, geographical information systems, multi-criteria decision process, weighted sum

Procedia PDF Downloads 376
3837 A Development Model of Factors Affecting Decision Making to Select Successor in Family Business of Thailand

Authors: Polvasut Mahaiamsiri, Piraphong Foosiri

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to explore the model of factors affecting decision making to select successor in family business of Thailand. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) was created from relevant theories and researches. Consequently, examine and analyse, the causal relation factors of Succession Plan, Recruitment Process and Strategic Planning, whether they have direct or indirect effects on Decision Making to Select Successor in family business. Units of analysis are selected from the family business, totalling 300 sampling. Population sampling is current owners or CEO from the percentage of six district areas in Thailand with multi-stage sampling. A set of questionnaires is used to collect data. An analysis of structural equation modelling (SEM) technique using AMOS 21 program is conducted to test the hypotheses and confirmatory factor analysis is performed and shows that these variables can be tested. The finding of this study revealed that these factors are separate constructs that combine to determine decision making to select successors.

Keywords: succession plan, family business, recruitment process, strategic planning, decision making to select successor

Procedia PDF Downloads 208
3836 The Principle of Methodological Rationality and Security of Organisations

Authors: Jan Franciszek Jacko

Abstract:

This investigation presents the principle of methodological rationality of decision making and discusses the impact of an organisation's members' methodologically rational or irrational decisions on its security. This study formulates and partially justifies some research hypotheses regarding the impact. The thinking experiment is used according to Max Weber's ideal types method. Two idealised situations("models") are compared: Model A, whereall decision-makers follow methodologically rational decision-making procedures. Model B, in which these agents follow methodologically irrational decision-making practices. Analysing and comparing the two models will allow the formulation of some research hypotheses regarding the impact of methodologically rational and irrational attitudes of members of an organisation on its security. In addition to the method, phenomenological analyses of rationality and irrationality are applied.

Keywords: methodological rationality, rational decisions, security of organisations, philosophy of economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
3835 Factors Affecting Households' Decision to Allocate Credit for Livestock Production: Evidence from Ethiopia

Authors: Kaleb Shiferaw, Berhanu Geberemedhin, Dereje Legesse

Abstract:

Access to credit is often viewed as a key to transform semi-subsistence smallholders into market oriented producers. However, only a few studies have examined factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on farm activities in general and livestock production in particular. A trivariate probit model with double selection is employed to identify factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on livestock production using data collected from smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. After controlling for two sample selection bias – taking credit for the production season and decision to allocate credit on farm activities – land ownership and access to a livestock centered extension service are found to have a significant (p<0.001) effect on farmers decision to use credit for livestock production. The result showed farmers with large land holding, and access to a livestock centered extension services are more likely to utilize credit for livestock production. However since the effect of land ownership squared is negative the effect of land ownership for those who own a large plot of land lessens. The study highlights the fact that improving access to credit does not automatically translate into more productive households. Improving farmers’ access to credit should be followed by a focused extension services.

Keywords: livestock production, credit access, credit allocation, household decision, double sample selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 327
3834 Participation in Decision Making and Work Outcomes: The Moderating Role of Ethical Climate

Authors: Ali Muhammad

Abstract:

The study examines the consequences of decision making in Kuwait work organization. The framework used in this study proposes that participation in decision making improves organizational ethical climate, which in turn increases employee’s trust in supervisor and trust in the organization. Furthermore, the model suggests that allowing employees to voice their opinions positively effects their perceptions of organizational justice. Providing employees with the opportunity to participate in decision making (voice), enhances their perceptions of the fairness of those decisions. Allowing employees to express their opinions and feeling about decisions being made show that the organization respect appreciates their views. This feeling of respect and appreciation reflects positively on employee’s perception of justice. Survey data were collected from a sample of 292 employees working in Kuwaiti work organizations. Pearson correlation, non-parametric tests, and structural equation models were used to analyze the data. Results of the analysis show that participation in decision making enhances employee perception of ethical climate, which in turn increases perception organizational justice and organizational trust. Implications of the findings and directions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: participation in decision making, organizational trust, trust in supervisor, organizational justice, ethical climate

Procedia PDF Downloads 113
3833 The Emotions in Consumers’ Decision Making: Review of Empirical Studies

Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

This paper explores, in depth, the idea that emotions are present in all consumer decision making processes, meaning that purchase decisions have never been purely cognitive or as they traditionally have been defined, rational. Human beings, in all kinds of decisions, has "always" used neural systems related to emotions along with neural systems related to cognition, regardless of the type of purchase or the product or service in question. Therefore, all purchase decisions are, at the same time, cognitive and emotional. This paper presents an analysis of the main contributions of researchers in this regard.

Keywords: emotions, decision making, consumer behaviour, emotional behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 392
3832 Second Order Cone Optimization Approach to Two-stage Network DEA

Authors: K. Asanimoghadam, M. Salahi, A. Jamalian

Abstract:

Data envelopment analysis is an approach to measure the efficiency of decision making units with multiple inputs and outputs. The structure of many decision making units also has decision-making subunits that are not considered in most data envelopment analysis models. Also, the inputs and outputs of the decision-making units usually are considered desirable, while in some real-world problems, the nature of some inputs or outputs are undesirable. In this thesis, we study the evaluation of the efficiency of two stage decision-making units, where some outputs are undesirable using two non-radial models, the SBM and the ASBM models. We formulate the nonlinear ASBM model as a second order cone optimization problem. Finally, we compare two models for both external and internal evaluation approaches for two real world example in the presence of undesirable outputs. The results show that, in both external and internal evaluations, the overall efficiency of ASBM model is greater than or equal to the overall efficiency value of the SBM model, and in internal evaluation, the ASBM model is more flexible than the SBM model.

Keywords: network DEA, conic optimization, undesirable output, SBM

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
3831 Participation in the Decision Making and Job Satisfaction in Greek Fish Farms

Authors: S. Anastasiou, C. Nathanailides

Abstract:

There is considerable evidence to suggest that employees participation in the decision-making process of an organisation, has a positive effect on job satisfaction and work performance of the employees. The purpose of the present work was to examine the HRM practices, demographics and the level of job satisfaction of employees in Greek Aquaculture fish farms. A survey of employees (n=86) in 6 Greek Aquaculture Firms was carried out. The results indicate that HRM practices such as recruitment of the personnel and communication between the departments did not vary between different firms. The most frequent method of recruitment was through the professional network or the personal network of the managers. The preferred method of HRM communication was through the line managers and through group meeting. The level of job satisfaction increased with work experience participation and participation in the decision making process. A high percentage of the employees (81,3%±8.39) felt that they frequently participated in the decision making process. The Aquaculture employees exhibited high level of job satisfaction (88,1±6.95). The level of job satisfaction was related with participation in the decision making process (-0.633, P<0.05) but was not related with as age or gender. In terms of the working conditions, employees were mostly satisfied with their work itself, their colleagues and mostly dissatisfied with working hours, salary issues and low prospects of pay rises.

Keywords: aquaculture, human resources, job satisfaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 467
3830 Proposed Framework based on Classification of Vertical Handover Decision Strategies in Heterogeneous Wireless Networks

Authors: Shidrokh Goudarzi, Wan Haslina Hassan

Abstract:

Heterogeneous wireless networks are converging towards an all-IP network as part of the so-called next-generation network. In this paradigm, different access technologies need to be interconnected; thus, vertical handovers or vertical handoffs are necessary for seamless mobility. In this paper, we conduct a review of existing vertical handover decision-making mechanisms that aim to provide ubiquitous connectivity to mobile users. To offer a systematic comparison, we categorize these vertical handover measurement and decision structures based on their respective methodology and parameters. Subsequently, we analyze several vertical handover approaches in the literature and compare them according to their advantages and weaknesses. The paper compares the algorithms based on the network selection methods, complexity of the technologies used and efficiency in order to introduce our vertical handover decision framework. We find that vertical handovers on heterogeneous wireless networks suffer from the lack of a standard and efficient method to satisfy both user and network quality of service requirements at different levels including architectural, decision-making and protocols. Also, the consolidation of network terminal, cross-layer information, multi packet casting and intelligent network selection algorithm appears to be an optimum solution for achieving seamless service continuity in order to facilitate seamless connectivity.

Keywords: heterogeneous wireless networks, vertical handovers, vertical handover metric, decision-making algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 393
3829 Relationship between Emotional Intelligence and Decision-Making Styles: A Study of Iranian Managers at Different Organizational Levels

Authors: Seyyedeh Mahdis Mousavi, Masoud Maghsoudi, Zahra Vahed

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between emotional intelligence as conceptualized in Goleman’s competency model, and decision making styles in levels of management. To conduct this study, different level managers in Iran Broadcasting Organization completed a questionnaire on emotional intelligence and decision making styles. Researcher used descriptive and inferential statistics to describe data and analyze the two variables relationship in managers of three levels. Results revealed significant relationships for rational, dependent, avoidant, and spontaneous styles. No significant relationship was found for intuitive style. Yet the results indicate that avoidant style has negative relation to EI. Furthermore, EI has direct and strong relation to rational style.

Keywords: emotional intelligence (EI), decision making styles, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), Iranian manager

Procedia PDF Downloads 368
3828 Factors Affecting the Critical Understanding of the Strategies Which Children Use to Motivate Parents in the Family Buying Process: Case of British Bangladeshi Children in the UK

Authors: Salma Akter, Mohammad M. Haque, Lawrence Akwetey

Abstract:

An empirical research design will analyze different factors/predictors children use to influence their parents in the family buying decision process in the unexplored area of British Bangladeshi children in the United Kingdom. The proposed conceptual model of factors- buying decision making process will be tested by the Structure Equation Model. A structured Questionnaire and secondary sources will employ to collect data and analyse and measure the validity by Statistical tools (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel. The Contemporary research aims to use the deductive approach developing the research questions and testing the hypothesis to identify the impact of different strategies British Bangladeshi children used to influence their parents in the family buying decision which was overlooked in the previous research.

Keywords: British Bangladeshi children, buying decision process, children influence, influential factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
3827 A Case Study of Decision Making and Adjustment Behaviour of Visually Challenged Adolescents

Authors: Bincy Mathew, B. William Dharma Raja

Abstract:

Successful decision making in a social setting depends on the ability to understand the intentions, emotions and beliefs of others. Children live and grow in the social world. Individuals think to satisfy their curiosity and mush of their social thought is practical, to attain their goal. Children’s thought about their social world influences how they behave towards it. The main purpose of this paper is to review the influence of decision making on adjustment behaviour of visually challenged adolescents. The sample was purposively selected to study the cases of two of the visually challenged adolescents from a Special School, in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India. The authors appraised the observed behaviour of adjustment in these children. It may be concluded that the social cognitive ability of decision making is at least, to certain extent, influences adjustment behaviour of visually challenged adolescents. Adjustment behaviour attempts to maintain a child’s level of physiological and psychological equilibrium and it is directed towards tension reduction. It involves a state of harmonious relationship existing between the individual and one’s environment so that adjustment is a matter of interaction between the capacities of the individual and the demands of the environment. The study also found that music induces a receptive mood that generally enhances cognitive processing and every decision that the child makes has its brunt on the behaviour. It is solely based on the case study carried out by the authors.

Keywords: social cognition, decision making, adjustment behaviour, adolescents

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
3826 Fragment Domination for Many-Objective Decision-Making Problems

Authors: Boris Djartov, Sanaz Mostaghim

Abstract:

This paper presents a number-based dominance method. The main idea is how to fragment the many attributes of the problem into subsets suitable for the well-established concept of Pareto dominance. Although other similar methods can be found in the literature, they focus on comparing the solutions one objective at a time, while the focus of this method is to compare entire subsets of the objective vector. Given the nature of the method, it is computationally costlier than other methods and thus, it is geared more towards selecting an option from a finite set of alternatives, where each solution is defined by multiple objectives. The need for this method was motivated by dynamic alternate airport selection (DAAS). In DAAS, pilots, while en route to their destination, can find themselves in a situation where they need to select a new landing airport. In such a predicament, they need to consider multiple alternatives with many different characteristics, such as wind conditions, available landing distance, the fuel needed to reach it, etc. Hence, this method is primarily aimed at human decision-makers. Many methods within the field of multi-objective and many-objective decision-making rely on the decision maker to initially provide the algorithm with preference points and weight vectors; however, this method aims to omit this very difficult step, especially when the number of objectives is so large. The proposed method will be compared to Favour (1 − k)-Dom and L-dominance (LD) methods. The test will be conducted using well-established test problems from the literature, such as the DTLZ problems. The proposed method is expected to outperform the currently available methods in the literature and hopefully provide future decision-makers and pilots with support when dealing with many-objective optimization problems.

Keywords: multi-objective decision-making, many-objective decision-making, multi-objective optimization, many-objective optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
3825 Decision Making to Study Abroad among Indonesian Student Migrants in Europe: The Role of Communication Technology

Authors: Inayah Hidayati

Abstract:

Innovation in communication technology has opened up opportunities for student to migrate and study abroad. The increasing number of Indonesian students migrating to study abroad suggests the importance of understanding the reason underline their movements. Objective: This research aims to explain the migration decision-making process of Indonesian student migrants in Europe. In detail, this research will consider the innovation in communication technology in the migration decision-making process of students who emigrated from Indonesia and how they use that in the context of the migration decision-making process. Methods: The data collected included qualitative data from in-depth interviews. An interview guide was formulated to facilitate the in-depth interviews and generate a better understanding of migration behavior. Expectation: 1). Innovation in communication technology help Indonesian student migrants on migration decision making process. 2). Student migrants use communication technology platforms for searching information about destination area. Result: Student migrant in Europe use their communication technology platforms to gain information before they choose that country for study. They use WhatsApp and LINE to making contact with their friends and colleagues in the destination country. WhatsApp and LINE group help Indonesian student to get information about school and daily life.

Keywords: international migration, student, decision making process, communication technology platforms

Procedia PDF Downloads 243
3824 Smaa-Gaia: A Complementary Tool of the Smaa-Promethee Method

Authors: Y. de Smet, J. Hubinont

Abstract:

PROMETHEE and GAIA are well-known Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods. Given an evaluation table and preference parameters they allow to rank the alternatives, to visualize the problem, to perform sensitivity and robustness analysis, etc. Unfortunately, it is often hard for the Decision Maker (DM) to estimate the precise values of these parameters. Therefore an alternative option is to give ranges of potential values in order to apply Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis. This has been recently studied in the context of the SMAA-PROMETHEE method. The aim of this contribution is to propose an SMAA extension of GAIA. We show how this tool can be useful and provide complementary information to SMAA-PROMETHEE. This is illustrated on a pedagogical example.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, PROMETHEE, GAIA, SMAA

Procedia PDF Downloads 429
3823 Neighbourhood Design for Independent Living of Adults with Intellectual Disability

Authors: Cate MacMillan, Nicholas J. Stevens, Johanna Rosier, Steven Boyd

Abstract:

Choosing where to live is an important decision for anybody, however, this decision is more complex if you are an adult with intellectual disability. Our research asked adults with intellectual disability, parents and carers and disability, housing and built environment decision makers what they considered important in deciding where to live. If medical advances continue to improve the longevity of adults with intellectual disability, many of these adults will outlive their parents. With appropriate community support, and in appropriately designed neighbourhoods, many will be able to live independently. Our research suggests that the key to achieving independent living as an adult with intellectual disability is not so much about the house but the type of neighbourhood and its design. This paper presents the results of interviews and details a practical approach which will better inform urban development decision-makers in establishing safe, inclusive and accessible neighbourhood design.

Keywords: inclusion, independent living, intellectual disability, neighbourhoods, systems thinking, urban design and planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 356
3822 Strategies in Customer Relationship Management and Customers’ Behavior in Making Decision on Buying Car Insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok

Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased, Paweena Sribunrueng

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to investigate strategies in customer relationship management and customers’ behavior in making decision on buying car insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok. Subjects in this study included 400 customers with the age over 20 years old to complete questionnaires. The data were analyzed by arithmetic mean and multiple regressions. The results revealed that the customers’ opinions on the strategies in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, customer feedback, customer follow-up, useful service suggestions, customer communication, and service channels were in moderate level but on the customer retention was in high level. Moreover, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, and customer feedback had an influence on customers’ buying decision on buying car insurance. The two factors above can be used for the prediction at the rate of 34%. In addition, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer retention, customer feedback, and useful service suggestions had an influence on the customers’ buying decision on period of being customers. The three factors could be used for the prediction at the rate of 45%.

Keywords: strategies, customer relationship management, behavior in buying decision, car insurance

Procedia PDF Downloads 405
3821 Survey on Big Data Stream Classification by Decision Tree

Authors: Mansoureh Ghiasabadi Farahani, Samira Kalantary, Sara Taghi-Pour, Mahboubeh Shamsi

Abstract:

Nowadays, the development of computers technology and its recent applications provide access to new types of data, which have not been considered by the traditional data analysts. Two particularly interesting characteristics of such data sets include their huge size and streaming nature .Incremental learning techniques have been used extensively to address the data stream classification problem. This paper presents a concise survey on the obstacles and the requirements issues classifying data streams with using decision tree. The most important issue is to maintain a balance between accuracy and efficiency, the algorithm should provide good classification performance with a reasonable time response.

Keywords: big data, data streams, classification, decision tree

Procedia PDF Downloads 521
3820 Improving University Operations with Data Mining: Predicting Student Performance

Authors: Mladen Dragičević, Mirjana Pejić Bach, Vanja Šimičević

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop models that would enable predicting student success. These models could improve allocation of students among colleges and optimize the newly introduced model of government subsidies for higher education. For the purpose of collecting data, an anonymous survey was carried out in the last year of undergraduate degree student population using random sampling method. Decision trees were created of which two have been chosen that were most successful in predicting student success based on two criteria: Grade Point Average (GPA) and time that a student needs to finish the undergraduate program (time-to-degree). Decision trees have been shown as a good method of classification student success and they could be even more improved by increasing survey sample and developing specialized decision trees for each type of college. These types of methods have a big potential for use in decision support systems.

Keywords: data mining, knowledge discovery in databases, prediction models, student success

Procedia PDF Downloads 407
3819 Importance of Risk Assessment in Managers´ Decision-Making Process

Authors: Mária Hudáková, Vladimír Míka, Katarína Hollá

Abstract:

Making decisions is the core of management and a result of conscious activities which is under way in a particular environment and concrete conditions. The managers decide about the goals, procedures and about the methods how to respond to the changes and to the problems which developed. Their decisions affect the effectiveness, quality, economy and the overall successfulness in every organisation. In spite of this fact, they do not pay sufficient attention to the individual steps of the decision-making process. They emphasise more how to cope with the individual methods and techniques of making decisions and forget about the way how to cope with analysing the problem or assessing the individual solution variants. In many cases, the underestimating of the analytical phase can lead to an incorrect assessment of the problem and this can then negatively influence its further solution. Based on our analysis of the theoretical solutions by individual authors who are dealing with this area and the realised research in Slovakia and also abroad we can recognise an insufficient interest of the managers to assess the risks in the decision-making process. The goal of this paper is to assess the risks in the managers´ decision-making process relating to the conditions of the environment, to the subject’s activity (the manager’s personality), to the insufficient assessment of individual variants for solving the problems but also to situations when the arisen problem is not solved. The benefit of this paper is the effort to increase the need of the managers to deal with the risks during the decision-making process. It is important for every manager to assess the risks in his/her decision-making process and to make efforts to take such decisions which reflect the basic conditions, states and development of the environment in the best way and especially for the managers´ decisions to contribute to achieving the determined goals of the organisation as effectively as possible.

Keywords: risk, decision-making, manager, process, analysis, source of risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
3818 Optimal Construction Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods

Authors: Masood Karamoozian, Zhang Hong

Abstract:

The necessity and complexity of the decision-making process and the interference of the various factors to make decisions and consider all the relevant factors in a problem are very obvious nowadays. Hence, researchers show their interest in multi-criteria decision-making methods. In this research, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods of multi-criteria decision-making have been used to solve the problem of optimal construction systems. Systems being evaluated in this problem include; Light Steel Frames (LSF), a case study of designs by Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing, Insulating Concrete Form (ICF), Ordinary Construction System (OCS), and Prefabricated Concrete System (PRCS) as another case study designs in Zhang Hong studio in the Southeast University of Nanjing. Crowdsourcing was done by using a questionnaire at the sample level (200 people). Questionnaires were distributed among experts, university centers, and conferences. According to the results of the research, the use of different methods of decision-making led to relatively the same results. In this way, with the use of all three multi-criteria decision-making methods mentioned above, the Prefabricated Concrete System (PRCS) was in the first rank, and the Light Steel Frame (LSF) system ranked second. Also, the Prefabricated Concrete System (PRCS), in terms of performance standards and economics, was ranked first, and the Light Steel Frame (LSF) system was allocated the first rank in terms of environmental standards.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision making, AHP, SAW, TOPSIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
3817 Financial Information and Collective Bargaining: Conflicting or Complementing

Authors: Humayun Murshed, Shibly Abdullah

Abstract:

The research conducted in early seventies apparently assumed the existence of a universal decision model for union negotiators and furthermore tended to regard financial information as a ‘neutral’ input into a rational decision-making process. However, research in the eighties began to question the neutrality of financial information as an input in collective bargaining rather viewing it as a potentially effective means for controlling the labour force. Furthermore, this later research also started challenging the simplistic assumptions relating particularly to union objectives which have underpinned the earlier search for universal union decision models. Despite the above developments there seems to be a dearth of studies in developing countries concerning the use of financial information in collective bargaining. This paper seeks to begin to remedy this deficiency. Utilising a case study approach based on two enterprises, one in the public sector and the other a multinational, the universal decision model is rejected and it is argued that the decision whether or not to use financial information is a contingent one and such a contingency is largely defined by the context and environment in which both union and management negotiators work. An attempt is also made to identify the factors constraining as well as promoting the use of financial information in collective bargaining, these being regarded as unique to the organizations within which the case studies are conducted.

Keywords: collective bargaining, developing countries, disclosures, financial information

Procedia PDF Downloads 471
3816 The Effect of Trans-Cranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) on Cognitive Flexibility and Social Decision-Making in Football Players

Authors: Erfan Izadpanah

Abstract:

The present study was conducted to investigate the effect of the Trans-Cranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) on cognitive flexibility and social decision-making in skilled, semi-skilled and novice football players. The present quasi-experimental pretest-posttest study was conducted on 60 randomly-selected subjects divided into trial and placebo groups (n=30 per group). The trial group received three 20-minute sessions of anodic stimulation at the intensity of 2 mA. The placebo group also received three sessions of sham anodic stimulation. Data were collected using the Wisconsin, Grant and Berg Card-Sorting Test (1948) and the ultimatum game and were then analyzed using the ANCOVA. The results showed significant differences between the skilled, semi-skilled and novice football players in the trial and placebo groups in terms of cognitive flexibility and social decision-making (P<0.01). TDCS appears to be able to improve cognitive flexibility and consequently social decision-making in football players and is recommended to sport psychologists and coaches as a useful intervention to increase cognitive flexibility and improve social decision-making in players.

Keywords: TDCS, cognitive flexibility, social decision-making, skilled, semi-skilled and novice football players

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
3815 Framework for Decision Support Tool for Quality Control and Management in Botswana Manufacturing Companies

Authors: Mogale Sabone, Thabiso Ntlole

Abstract:

The pressure from globalization has made manufacturing organizations to move towards three major competitive arenas: quality, cost, and responsiveness. Quality is a universal value and has become a global issue. In order to survive and be able to provide customers with good products, manufacturing organizations’ supporting systems, tools, and structures it uses must grow or evolve. The majority of quality management concepts and strategies that are practiced recently are aimed at detecting and correcting problems which already exist and serve to limit losses. In agile manufacturing environment there is no room for defect and error so it needs a quality management which is proactively directed at problem prevention. This proactive quality management avoids losses by focusing on failure prevention, virtual elimination of the possibility of premature failure, mistake-proofing, and assuring consistently high quality in the definition and design of creation processes. To achieve this, a decision support tool for quality control and management is suggested. Current decision support tools/methods used by most manufacturing companies in Botswana for quality management and control are not integrated, for example they are not consistent since some tests results data is recorded manually only whilst others are recorded electronically. It is only a set of procedures not a tool. These procedures cannot offer interactive decision support. This point brings to light the aim of this research which is to develop a framework which will help manufacturing companies in Botswana build a decision support tool for quality control and management.

Keywords: decision support tool, manufacturing, quality control, quality management

Procedia PDF Downloads 566
3814 A New DIDS Design Based on a Combination Feature Selection Approach

Authors: Adel Sabry Eesa, Adnan Mohsin Abdulazeez Brifcani, Zeynep Orman

Abstract:

Feature selection has been used in many fields such as classification, data mining and object recognition and proven to be effective for removing irrelevant and redundant features from the original data set. In this paper, a new design of distributed intrusion detection system using a combination feature selection model based on bees and decision tree. Bees algorithm is used as the search strategy to find the optimal subset of features, whereas decision tree is used as a judgment for the selected features. Both the produced features and the generated rules are used by Decision Making Mobile Agent to decide whether there is an attack or not in the networks. Decision Making Mobile Agent will migrate through the networks, moving from node to another, if it found that there is an attack on one of the nodes, it then alerts the user through User Interface Agent or takes some action through Action Mobile Agent. The KDD Cup 99 data set is used to test the effectiveness of the proposed system. The results show that even if only four features are used, the proposed system gives a better performance when it is compared with the obtained results using all 41 features.

Keywords: distributed intrusion detection system, mobile agent, feature selection, bees algorithm, decision tree

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
3813 Framework for Integrating Big Data and Thick Data: Understanding Customers Better

Authors: Nikita Valluri, Vatcharaporn Esichaikul

Abstract:

With the popularity of data-driven decision making on the rise, this study focuses on providing an alternative outlook towards the process of decision-making. Combining quantitative and qualitative methods rooted in the social sciences, an integrated framework is presented with a focus on delivering a much more robust and efficient approach towards the concept of data-driven decision-making with respect to not only Big data but also 'Thick data', a new form of qualitative data. In support of this, an example from the retail sector has been illustrated where the framework is put into action to yield insights and leverage business intelligence. An interpretive approach to analyze findings from both kinds of quantitative and qualitative data has been used to glean insights. Using traditional Point-of-sale data as well as an understanding of customer psychographics and preferences, techniques of data mining along with qualitative methods (such as grounded theory, ethnomethodology, etc.) are applied. This study’s final goal is to establish the framework as a basis for providing a holistic solution encompassing both the Big and Thick aspects of any business need. The proposed framework is a modified enhancement in lieu of traditional data-driven decision-making approach, which is mainly dependent on quantitative data for decision-making.

Keywords: big data, customer behavior, customer experience, data mining, qualitative methods, quantitative methods, thick data

Procedia PDF Downloads 162