Search results for: time series regression

Authors: Jordan Shuler

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The goal of this study is to determine whether real-time language translation benefits ESL learners by contributing to overall equity in the classroom. Equity will be measured quantitatively through assessment performance and qualitatively through student survey. Two separate sections of students studying the same course will receive identical curriculum: one group, the control, will be taught in English and the other group in English with real-time translation into the students' first languages. The professor will use Microsoft Translator during lectures, in-class discussions, and Q&A time. The college is committed to finding new ways of teaching and learning, as outlined in Strategy 2022. If this research finds a positive relationship between language translation and student academic success, the technology will surely be encouraged for adoption by all George Brown College faculty. With greater acceptance, this technology could influence equity and pedagogy in the larger educational community.

Keywords: ESL learners, equity, innovative teaching strategies, language translation

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Svetlana Missina, Anatoliy Shipilov, Alexandr Vavaev

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The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between sprint and vertical jump performance in elite female football players. Twenty four professional female football players (age, 18.6±3.1 years; height, 168.3±6.3 cm, body mass 61.6±7.4 kg; mean±SD) were tested for 30-m sprint time, 10-m sprint time and vertical countermovement (CMJ) and squat (SJ) jumps height. Participants performed three countermovement jumps and three squat jumps for maximal height on a force platform. Mean values of three trials were used in statistical analysis. The displacement of center of mass (COM) during flight phase (e.g. jump height) was calculated using the vertical velocity of the COM at the moment of take-off. 30-m and 10-m sprint time were measured using OptoGait optical system. The best of three trials were used for analysis. A significant negative correlation was found between 30-m sprint time and CMJ, SJ height (r = -0.85, r = -0.79 respectively), between 10-m sprint time and CMJ, SJ height (r = -0.73, r = -0.8 respectively), and step frequency was significantly related to CMJ peak power (r = -0.57). Our study indicates that there is strong correlation between sprint and jump performance in elite female football players, thus vertical jump test can be considered as a good sprint and agility predictor in female football.

Keywords: agility, female football players, sprint performance, vertical jump height

Procedia PDF Downloads 473

Authors: Klytaimnistra Katsara, George Kenanakis, Eleftherios Alissandrakis, Vassilis M. Papadakis

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In recent decades, microplastics (MPs) attracted the interest of the research community as the level of environmental plastic pollution has increased over the years. Through air inhalation and food consumption, MPs enter the human body, creating a series of possible health issues. The majority of MPs enter through the digestive tract; they migrate from the plastic packaging of the foodstuffs. Several plastics, such as Polyethylene (PE), are commonly used as food packaging material due to their preservation and storage capabilities. In this work, the surfaces of three different cured meat products with varied fat compositions were studied (bacon, mortadella, and salami) to determine the migration of MPs from plastic packaging. Micro-Raman spectroscopic measurements were performed in an experimental set lasting 28 days, where the meat samples were stored in vacuum-sealed low-density polyethylene (LDPE) pouches under refrigeration conditions at 4°C. Specific measurement days (0, 3, 9, 12, 15, and 28 days of storage) were chosen to obtain comparative results. Raman micro-spectroscopy was used to monitor the MPs migration, where the Raman spectral profile of LDPE first appeared on day 9 in Bacon, day 15 in Salami, and finally, on day 28 in Mortadella. All the meat samples on day 28 were tainted because a layer of bacterial outgrowth had developed on their surface. In conclusion, MP migration from food packaging to the surface of the cured meat samples was proven. To minimize the consumption of MPs in cured meat products that are stored in plastic packaging, a short period of storage time under refrigeration conditions is advised.

Keywords: cured meat, food packaging, low-density polyethylene, microplastic migration, micro-Raman spectroscopy

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Authors: Qazi Salman Khalid, Muhammad Khalid, Shahid Maqsood

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This paper presents a solution for optimizing the cycle time in an assembly line with human-robot collaboration and diverse operators. A genetic algorithm with tailored parameters is used to address the assembly line balancing problem in the automobile sector. A mathematical model is developed, depicting the problem. Currently, the firm runs on the largest candidate rule; however, it causes a lag in orders, which ultimately gets penalized. The results of the study show that the proposed GA is effective in providing efficient solutions and that the cycle time has significantly impacted productivity.

Keywords: line balancing, cycle time, genetic algorithm, productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Grace Modupe Adebo, Ayodeji Oluwamuyiwa Adedapo

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Women are key actors in ensuring food security in terms of food availability, food access, and food utilization in the developing economy, however, they suffer mostly during violent conflicts due to their feminist nature of rearing and caring for their children and relatives. The study was embarked upon to access the effects of violent conflicts posed by Boko Haram insurgency on women and food security in the Northeast of Nigeria. The study made use of secondary data. A time series data collected over a 22 years period were used. The data collected were subjected to descriptive statistics and t-test analysis. The findings of the study established a significant difference in food production (availability) before and after the Boko Haram insurgency at the 1% level of significance. The high level of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) with a high proportion of women depicts a very low level of food accessibility as the men and women has fled and uninhabited their place of abode for over a period of four to five years, thus diminishing their economic power, and the means of acquiring food which invariably endanger food stability and utilization. The study confirmed the abduction and changing roles of women as cooks, porters, spies, partners, and sex slaves to Boko Haram troop members, thus affecting their livelihoods and food security. The study recommends hands-on interventions by the governmental, non-governmental and international agencies to terminate the activities of Boko Haram in the area and restore the food production for enhanced food security.

Keywords: Boko Haram insurgency, food accessibility, food production, food utilization, women’s livelihoods

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Fatima S. Rodriguez, Victorino T. Taylan, Manolito C. Bulaong, Helen F. Gavino, Vitaliana U. Malamug

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In sundrying the quality of the grains are greatly reduced when paddy grains were caught by the rain unsacked and unstored resulting to reduced profit. The objectives of this study were to design and fabricate a quick covering machine for grain drying pavement; to test and evaluate the operating characteristics of the machine according to its deployment speed, recovery speed, deployment time, recovery time, power consumption, aesthetics of laminated sack; and to conduct partial budget and cost curve analysis. The machine was able to cover the grains in a 12.8 m x 22.5 m grain drying pavement at an average time of 17.13 s. It consumed 0.53 W-hr for the deployment and recovery of the cover. The machine entailed an investment cost of $1,344.40 and an annual cost charge of $647.32. Moreover, the savings per year using the quick covering machine was $101.83.

Keywords: quick covering machine, grain drying pavement, laminated polypropylene, recovery time

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Authors: R. Santos Alimi

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Using time-series techniques, this study empirically tested the validity of existing theory which stipulates there is a nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth; such that government spending is growth-enhancing at low levels but growth-retarding at high levels, with the optimal size occurring somewhere in between. This study employed three estimation equations. First, for the size of government, two measures are considered as follows: (i) share of total expenditures to gross domestic product, (ii) share of recurrent expenditures to gross domestic product. Second, the study adopted real GDP (without government expenditure component), as a variant measure of economic growth other than the real total GDP, in estimating the optimal level of government expenditure. The study is based on annual Nigeria country-level data for the period 1970 to 2012. Estimation results show that the inverted U-shaped curve exists for the two measures of government size and the estimated optimum shares are 19.81% and 10.98%, respectively. Finally, with the adoption of real GDP (without government expenditure component), the optimum government size was found to be 12.58% of GDP. Our analysis shows that the actual share of government spending on average (2000 - 2012) is about 13.4%.This study adds to the literature confirming that the optimal government size exists not only for developed economies but also for developing economy like Nigeria. Thus, a public intervention threshold level that fosters economic growth is a reality; beyond this point economic growth should be left in the hands of the private sector. This finding has a significant implication for the appraisal of government spending and budgetary policy design.

Keywords: public expenditure, economic growth, optimum level, fully modified OLS

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Authors: Marina Nechayeva, Malgorzata Marciniak, Vladimir Przhebelskiy, A. Dragutan, S. Lamichhane, S. Oikawa

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This presentation is a progress report on a faculty-student research collaboration at CUNY LaGuardia Community College (LaGCC) aimed at designing a small horizontal axis wind turbine optimized for the wind patterns on the roof of our campus. Our project combines statistical and engineering research. Our wind modeling protocol is based upon a recent wind study by a faculty-student research group at MIT, and some of our blade design methods are adopted from a senior engineering project at CUNY City College. Our use of genetic algorithms has been inspired by the work on small wind turbines’ design by David Wood. We combine these diverse approaches in our interdisciplinary project in a way that has not been done before and improve upon certain techniques used by our predecessors. We employ several estimation methods to determine the best fitting parametric probability distribution model for the local wind speed data obtained through correlating short-term on-site measurements with a long-term time series at the nearby airport. The model serves as a foundation for engineering research that focuses on adapting and implementing genetic algorithms (GAs) to engineering optimization of the wind turbine design using Blade Element Momentum Theory. GAs are used to create new airfoils with desirable aerodynamic specifications. Small scale models of best performing designs are 3D printed and tested in the wind tunnel to verify the accuracy of relevant calculations. Genetic algorithms are applied to selected airfoils to determine the blade design (radial cord and pitch distribution) that would optimize the coefficient of power profile of the turbine. Our approach improves upon the traditional blade design methods in that it lets us dispense with assumptions necessary to simplify the system of Blade Element Momentum Theory equations, thus resulting in more accurate aerodynamic performance calculations. Furthermore, it enables us to design blades optimized for a whole range of wind speeds rather than a single value. Lastly, we improve upon known GA-based methods in that our algorithms are constructed to work with XFoil generated airfoils data which enables us to optimize blades using our own high glide ratio airfoil designs, without having to rely upon available empirical data from existing airfoils, such as NACA series. Beyond its immediate goal, this ongoing project serves as a training and selection platform for CUNY Research Scholars Program (CRSP) through its annual Aerodynamics and Wind Energy Research Seminar (AWERS), an undergraduate summer research boot camp, designed to introduce prospective researchers to the relevant theoretical background and methodology, get them up to speed with the current state of our research, and test their abilities and commitment to the program. Furthermore, several aspects of the research (e.g., writing code for 3D printing of airfoils) are adapted in the form of classroom research activities to enhance Calculus sequence instruction at LaGCC.

Keywords: engineering design optimization, genetic algorithms, horizontal axis wind turbine, wind modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Taisier A. Zoubi, Feras Salama, Mahmud Hossain, Yass A. Alkafaji

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The purpose of this study is to examine the equity pricing of other comprehensive income when earnings are disaggregated into several components. Our findings indicate that other comprehensive income can better explain variation in stock returns when net income is reported in a disaggregated form. Additionally, we found that disaggregating both net income and other comprehensive income can explain more of the variation in the stock returns than the two summary components of comprehensive income. Our results survive a series of robustness checks.

Keywords: market valuation, other comprehensive income, value-relevance, incremental information content

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Authors: Kedar Vishnu, Parmod Kumar

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India is becoming most favored retail destination in the world. The organized retail has presented many opportunities to farmers to increase income by shifting cropping pattern from food grains to commercial crops. Previous research revealed potential benefits for farmers by supplying fruits and vegetables to organized retail channels. However the supply of fruits and vegetables from small and marginal farmers remain low than expected. The main objective of this paper is to identify the factors determining market participation of smallholder farmers in modern organized retail chains. Attempt is also made to find out factors influencing the choice of participation in particular organized retail collection centers as compared to other organized retail. The paper was based on primary survey of 40 Beans and Tomato farmers who supply to organized retail collection centers from Karnataka, India. Multiple regression technique is used to identify the factors determining quantity sold at collection centers. The regression result, show that area under vegetables, yield, and price from modern collection center and having access to technical help were found significantly affecting quantity sold into modern organized retail channels. On the opposite, increased rejection rates and vegetable prices at APMC were found influencing farmers decision into the reverse side. Empirical result of the multinomial logit model show that Reliance fresh has tendency to prefer large farmers who can supply more quality and better quantity compared with TESCO and More collection centers. The negative sign of area, having access to technical help, transportation cost, and number of bore wells led to higher probability of farmers to participate in Reliance Fresh collection centers as compared with More and TESCO.

Keywords: fruits, vegetables, organized retail markets, multinomial logit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Darren A. Whitaker, Dan Palmer, Jens Wesholowski, James Flaherty, John Mack, Ahmad B. Albadarin, Gavin Walker

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Traditional mechanosynthesis has been performed by either ball milling or manual grinding. However, neither of these techniques allow the easy application of process control. The temperature may change unpredictably due to friction in the process. Hence the amount of energy transferred to the reactants is intrinsically non-uniform. Recently, it has been shown that the use of Twin-Screw extrusion (TSE) can overcome these limitations. Additionally, TSE enables a platform for continuous synthesis or manufacturing as it is an open-ended process, with feedstocks at one end and product at the other. Several materials including metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), co-crystals and small organic molecules have been produced mechanochemically using TSE. The described advantages of TSE are offset by drawbacks such as increased process complexity (a large number of process parameters) and variation in feedstock flow impacting on product quality. To handle the above-mentioned drawbacks, this study utilizes UV-Vis spectrophotometry (InSpectroX, ColVisTec) as an online tool to gain real-time information about the quality of the product. Additionally, this is combined with real-time process information in an Advanced Process Control system (PharmaMV, Perceptive Engineering) allowing full supervision and control of the TSE process. Further, by characterizing the dynamic behavior of the TSE, a model predictive controller (MPC) can be employed to ensure the process remains under control when perturbed by external disturbances. Two reactions were studied; a Knoevenagel condensation reaction of barbituric acid and vanillin and, the direct amidation of hydroquinone by ammonium acetate to form N-Acetyl-para-aminophenol (APAP) commonly known as paracetamol. Both reactions could be carried out continuously using TSE, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy was used to confirm the percentage conversion of starting materials to product. This information was used to construct partial least squares (PLS) calibration models within the PharmaMV development system, which relates the percent conversion to product to the acquired UV-Vis spectrum. Once this was complete, the model was deployed within the PharmaMV Real-Time System to carry out automated optimization experiments to maximize the percentage conversion based on a set of process parameters in a design of experiments (DoE) style methodology. With the optimum set of process parameters established, a series of PRBS process response tests (i.e. Pseudo-Random Binary Sequences) around the optimum were conducted. The resultant dataset was used to build a statistical model and associated MPC. The controller maximizes product quality whilst ensuring the process remains at the optimum even as disturbances such as raw material variability are introduced into the system. To summarize, a combination of online spectral monitoring and advanced process control was used to develop a robust system for optimization and control of two TSE based mechanosynthetic processes.

Keywords: continuous synthesis, pharmaceutical, spectroscopy, advanced process control

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: P. Bublíkova, P. Halodova, H. K. Namburi, J. Stodolna, J. Duchon, O. Libera

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Neutron radiation-induced microstructural changes cause degradation of mechanical properties and the lifetime reduction of reactor internals during nuclear power plant operation. Investigating the effects of neutron irradiation on mechanical properties of the irradiated material (hardening, embrittlement) is challenging and time-consuming. Although the fast neutron spectrum has the major influence on microstructural properties, the thermal neutron effect is widely investigated owing to Irradiation-Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking firstly observed in BWR stainless steels. In this study, 300-series austenitic stainless steels used as material for NPP's internals were examined after neutron irradiation at ~ 15 dpa. Although several nanoindentation experimental publications are available to determine the mechanical properties of ion irradiated materials, less is available on neutron irradiated materials at high dpa tested in hot-cells. In this work, we present particular methodology developed to determine the mechanical properties of neutron irradiated steels by nanoindentation technique. Furthermore, radiation-induced damage in the specimens was investigated by High Resolution - Transmission Electron Microscopy (HR-TEM) that showed the defect features, particularly Frank loops, cavity microstructure, radiation-induced precipitates and radiation-induced segregation. The results of nanoindentation measurements and associated nanoscale defect features showed the effect of irradiation-induced hardening. We also propose methodologies to optimized sample preparation for nanoindentation and microscotructural studies.

Keywords: nanoindentation, thermal neutrons, radiation hardening, transmission electron microscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Tafadzwa Shumba, Rose C. Nyatondo, Regret Sunge

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This research analyses the impact of budget deficits on the economic performance of Zimbabwe. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) confines testing method to co-integration and long-run estimation using time series data from 1980-2018. The Augmented Dick Fuller (ADF) and the Granger approach were used to testing for stationarity and causality among the factors. Co-integration test results affirm a long term association between GDP development rate and descriptive factors. Causality test results show a unidirectional connection between budget shortfall to GDP development and bi-directional causality amid debt and budget deficit. This study also found unidirectional causality from debt to GDP growth rate. ARDL estimates indicate a significantly positive long term and significantly negative short term impact of budget shortfall on GDP. This suggests that budget deficits have a short-run growth retarding effect and a long-run growth-inducing effect. The long-run results follow the Keynesian theory that posits that fiscal deficits result in an increase in GDP growth. Short-run outcomes follow the neoclassical theory. In light of these findings, the government is recommended to minimize financing of recurrent expenditure using a budget deficit. To achieve sustainable growth and development, the government needs to spend an absorbable budget deficit focusing on capital projects such as the development of human capital and infrastructure.

Keywords: ARDL, budget deficit, economic performance, long run

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Vipin Bhandari, Anupama Singh, Kopal Gupta

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Solid state fermentation, an eminent bioconversion technique for converting many biological substrates into a value-added product, has proven its role in the biotransformation of crops by nutritionally enriching them. Hence, an effort was made for nutritional enhancement of underutilized crops viz. barnyard millet, amaranthus and horse gram based composite flour using SSF. The grains were given pre-treatments before fermentation and these pre-treatments proved quite effective in diminishing the level of antinutrients in grains and in improving their nutritional characteristics. The present study deals with the enhancement of nutritional characteristics of underutilized crops viz. barnyard millet, amaranthus and horsegram based composite flour using solid state fermentation (SSF) as the principle bioconversion technique to convert the composite flour substrate into a nutritionally enriched value added product. Response surface methodology was used to design the experiments. The variables selected for the fermentation experiments were substrate particle size, substrate blend ratio, fermentation time, fermentation temperature and moisture content having three levels of each. Seventeen designed experiments were conducted randomly to find the effect of these variables on microbial count, reducing sugar, pH, total sugar, phytic acid and water absorption index. The data from all experiments were analyzed using Design Expert 8.0.6 and the response functions were developed using multiple regression analysis and second order models were fitted for each response. Results revealed that pretreatments proved quite handful in diminishing the level of antinutrients and thus enhancing the nutritional value of the grains appreciably, for instance, there was about 23% reduction in phytic acid levels after decortication of barnyard millet. The carbohydrate content of the decorticated barnyard millet increased to 81.5% from initial value of 65.2%. Similarly popping and puffing of horsegram and amaranthus respectively greatly reduced the trypsin inhibitor activity. Puffing of amaranthus also reduced the tannin content appreciably. Bacillus subtilis was used as the inoculating specie since it is known to produce phytases in solid state fermentation systems. These phytases remarkably reduce the phytic acid content which acts as a major antinutritional factor in food grains. Results of solid state fermentation experiments revealed that phytic acid levels reduced appreciably when fermentation was allowed to continue for 72 hours at a temperature of 35°C. Particle size and substrate blend ratio also affected the responses positively. All the parameters viz. substrate particle size, substrate blend ratio, fermentation time, fermentation temperature and moisture content affected the responses namely microbial count, reducing sugar, pH, total sugar, phytic acid and water absorption index but the effect of fermentation time was found to be most significant on all the responses. Statistical analysis resulted in the optimum conditions (particle size 355µ, substrate blend ratio 50:20:30 of barnyard millet, amaranthus and horsegram respectively, fermentation time 68 hrs, fermentation temperature 35°C and moisture content 47%) for maximum reduction in phytic acid. The model F- value was found to be highly significant at 1% level of significance in case of all the responses. Hence, second order model could be fitted to predict all the dependent parameters. The effect of fermentation time was found to be most significant as compared to other variables.

Keywords: composite flour, solid state fermentation, underutilized crops, cereals, fermentation technology, food processing

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Authors: Abdullah Al. Morshed, Mohammad Nahid Mia

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Introduction: Food security refers to the availability of food and a person’s access to it. It is a complex sustainable development issue, which is closely related to under-nutrition. Food security, in turn, can widely affect the living standard, and is rooted in poverty and leads to poor health, low productivity, low income, food shortage, and hunger. The study's aim was to identify the most vulnerable women who are in insecure positions. Method: 17,842 married women were selected for analysis from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Food security defined as dichotomous variables of skipped meals and eaten less food at least once in the last year. The outcome variables were cross-tabulated with women's socio-demographic characteristics and chi2 test was applied to see the significance. Logistic regression models were applied to identify the most vulnerable groups in terms of food security. Result: Only 18.5% of women said that they ever had to skip meals in the last year. 45.7% women from low socioeconomic status had skip meal for at least once whereas only 3.6% were from women with highest socioeconomic status. Women meal skipping was ranged from 1.4% to 34.2% by their educational status. 22% of women were eaten less food during the last year. The rate was higher among the poorest (51.6%), illiterate (39.9%) and household have no electricity connection (38.1) in compared with richest (4.4%), higher educated (2.0%), and household has electricity connection (14.0%). The logistic regression analysis indicated that household socioeconomic status, and women education show strong gradients to skip meals. Poorest have had higher odds (20.9) than richest and illiterate women had 7.7 higher odds than higher educated. In terms of religion, Christianity was 2.3 times more likely to skip their meals than Islam. On the other hand, a similar trend was observed in our other outcome variable eat less food. Conclusion: In this study we able to identify women with lower economics status and women with no education were mostly suffered group from starvation.

Keywords: food security, hunger, under-nutrition, women

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Authors: Tamara Slišković, Tomislav Sekur

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This manuscript examines factors that affect demand and supply of the housing market in Croatia. The period from the beginning of this century, until 2008, was characterized by a strong expansion of construction, housing and real estate market in general. Demand for residential units was expanding, and this was supported by favorable lending conditions of banks. Indicators on the supply side, such as the number of newly built houses and the construction volume index were also increasing. Rapid growth of demand, along with the somewhat slower supply growth, led to the situation in which new apartments were sold before the completion of residential buildings. This resulted in a rise of housing price which was indication of a clear link between the housing prices with the supply and demand in the housing market. However, after 2008 general economic conditions in Croatia worsened and demand for housing has fallen dramatically, while supply descended at much slower pace. Given that there is a gap between supply and demand, it can be concluded that the housing market in Croatia is in imbalance. Such trend is accompanied by a relatively small decrease in housing price. The final result of such movements is the large number of unsold housing units at relatively high price levels. For this reason, it can be argued that housing prices are sticky and that, consequently, the price level in the aftermath of a crisis does not correspond to the discrepancy between supply and demand on the Croatian housing market. The degree of rigidity of the housing price can be determined by inclusion of the housing price as the explanatory variable in the housing demand function. Other independent variables are demographic variable (e.g. the number of households), the interest rate on housing loans, households' disposable income and rent. The equilibrium price is reached when the demand for housing equals its supply, and the speed of adjustment of actual prices to equilibrium prices reveals the extent to which the prices are rigid. The latter requires inclusion of the housing prices with time lag as an independent variable in estimating demand function. We also observe the supply side of the housing market, in order to explain to what extent housing prices explain the movement of new construction activity, and other variables that describe the supply. In this context, we test whether new construction on the Croatian market is dependent on current prices or prices with a time lag. Number of dwellings is used to approximate new construction (flow variable), while the housing prices (current or lagged), quantity of dwellings in the previous period (stock variable) and a series of costs related to new construction are independent variables. We conclude that the key reason for the imbalance in the Croatian housing market should be sought in the relative relationship of price elasticities of supply and demand.

Keywords: Croatian housing market, economic crisis, housing prices, supply imbalance, demand imbalance

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Authors: David F. Nettleton, Elodie Bugnicourt, Christian Wasiak, Alejandro Rosales

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In this presentation, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two different industrial winding MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) processes using machine learning techniques. In contrast to previous approaches which have typically used ‘black-box’ linear statistical methods together with a definition of the mechanical behavior of the process, we use non-linear machine learning algorithms together with a ‘white-box’ rule induction technique to create a supervised model of the fitting error between the expected and real force measures. The final objective is to build a precise model of the winding process in order to control de-tension of the material being wound in the first case, and the friction of the material passing through the die, in the second case. Case 1, Tension Control of a Winding Process. A plastic web is unwound from a first reel, goes over a traction reel and is rewound on a third reel. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the web tension and (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given tension. Case 2, Friction Force Control of a Micro-Pullwinding Process. A core+resin passes through a first die, then two winding units wind an outer layer around the core, and a final pass through a second die. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the friction on die2; (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given friction on die2. Different machine learning approaches are tested to build models, Kernel Ridge Regression, Support Vector Regression (with a Radial Basis Function Kernel) and MPART (Rule Induction with continuous value as output). As a previous step, the MPART rule induction algorithm was used to build an explicative model of the error (the difference between expected and real friction on die2). The modeling of the error behavior using explicative rules is used to help improve the overall process model. Once the models are built, the inputs are calibrated by generating Gaussian random numbers for each input (taking into account its mean and standard deviation) and comparing the output to a target (desired) output until a closest fit is found. The results of empirical testing show that a high precision is obtained for the trained models and for the calibration process. The learning step is the slowest part of the process (max. 5 minutes for this data), but this can be done offline just once. The calibration step is much faster and in under one minute obtained a precision error of less than 1x10-3 for both outputs. To summarize, in the present work two processes have been modeled and calibrated. A fast processing time and high precision has been achieved, which can be further improved by using heuristics to guide the Gaussian calibration. Error behavior has been modeled to help improve the overall process understanding. This has relevance for the quick optimal set up of many different industrial processes which use a pull-winding type process to manufacture fibre reinforced plastic parts. Acknowledgements to the Openmind project which is funded by Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, Grant Agreement number 680820

Keywords: data model, machine learning, industrial winding, calibration

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Authors: Chang-Ho Lee, Seung-Hoon Lee, Myeong-Jin Park, Oh-Min Kwon

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This paper investigates improved stability criteria for sampled-data control of linear systems with disturbances and time-varying delays. Based on Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theory, delay-dependent conditions sufficient to ensure H∞ stability for the system are derived in the form of linear matrix inequalities(LMI). The effectiveness of the proposed method will be shown in numerical examples.

Keywords: sampled-data control system, Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, time delay-dependent, LMI, H∞ control

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Authors: Jonathan A. Akinwale, Ibukun J. Agotola

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There is a need to rethink how technology is being disseminated to end users in order to ensure wide adoption and utilisation. Aflasafe bio-control was developed to combat aflatoxin in maize to ensure food safety for the end users. This study was designed to assess how the pull mechanism is enhancing the utilisation of this proven technology among maize farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria. The study determines the awareness of farmers on Aflasafe, sources of purchase of Aflasafe, incentives towards the usage of Aflasafe, constraints to farmers’ utilisation and factors influencing farmers’ utilisation of Aflasafe bio-control measures. Respondents were selected using a multi-stage sampling procedure. Data were collected from respondents through interview schedule and analyzed using descriptive statistics (means, frequencies, and percentages) and inferential statistics (Pearson Product Moment Correlation and regression analysis). The result showed that 89% of the farmers indicated implementers as the outlet for the purchase of Aflasafe. Also, premium payment and provision of technical assistance were the highly ranked incentives to the utilisation of Aflasafe among the farmers. The study also revealed that the major constraints face by respondents were low access to credit facility, inadequate sources of purchase, and lack of storage facilities. A little above half (54%) of the farmers were found to have fully utilized Aflasafe in maize production. Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) analysis revealed that there was a significant correlation between incentives and utilisation of Aflasafe (r-value=0.274; p ≤ 0.01). The result of the regression analysis indicated maize production experience (β=0.572), output (β=0.531), years of formal education (β=0.404) and household size (β=0.391) as the leading factors influencing farmers utilisation of Aflasafe bio-control in maize production. The study, therefore, recommends that governments and non-governmental organisations should be interested in making Aflasafe available to the maize farmers either through loan provision or price subsidy.

Keywords: Aflasafe bio-control, maize production, production incentives, pull mechanism, utilisation

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Authors: Grange Sylvain, Plancher Ronan, Reurink Guustav, Croisille Pierre, Edouard Pascal

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The primary objective of this study was to analyze the potential correlation between the pain experienced at the time of a hamstring muscle injury and the volume of the lesion measured on MRI. The secondary objectives were to analyze a correlation between this pain and the lesion grade as well as the affected hamstring muscle. We performed a retrospective analysis of the data collected in a prospective, multicenter, non-interventional cohort study (HAMMER). Patients with suspected hamstring muscle injury had an MRI after the injury and at the same time were evaluated for their pain intensity experienced at the time of the injury with a Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) from 0 to 10. A total of 61 patients were included in the present analysis. MRIs were performed in an average of less than 8 days. There was a significant correlation between pain and the injury volume (r=0.287; p=0.025). There was no significant correlation between the pain and the lesion grade (p>0.05), nor between the pain and affected hamstring muscle (p>0.05). Pain at the time of injury appeared to be correlated with the volume of muscle affected. These results confirm the value of a clinical approach in the initial evaluation of hamstring injuries to better select patients eligible for further imaging.

Keywords: hamstring muscle injury, MRI, volume lesion, pain

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Authors: Anna Gaspard, Stéphane Boudreau, Martin Simard

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Altered temperature and precipitation regimes associated with climate change generally result in improved conditions for plant growth. For Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, this new climatic context favours an increase in primary productivity, a phenomenon often referred to as "greening". The development of an erect shrub cover has been identified as the main driver of Arctic greening. Although this phenomenon has been widely documented at the circumpolar scale, little information is available at the scale of plant communities, the basic unit of the Arctic, and sub-Arctic landscape mosaic. The objective of this study is to quantify the variation of NDVI within the different plant communities of Nunavik, which will allow us to identify the plant formations that contribute the most to the increase in productivity observed in this territory. To do so, the variation of NDVI extracted from Landsat images for the period 1984 to 2020 was quantified. From the Landsat scenes, annual summer NDVI mosaics with a resolution of 30 m were generated. The ecological mapping of Northern Quebec vegetation was then overlaid on the time series of NDVI maps to calculate the average NDVI per vegetation polygon for each year. Our results show that NDVI increases are more important for the bioclimatic domains of forest tundra and erect shrub tundra, and shrubby formations. Surface deposits, variations in mean annual temperature, and variations in winter precipitation are involved in NDVI variations. This study has thus allowed us to quantify changes in Nunavik's vegetation communities, using fine spatial resolution satellite imagery data.

Keywords: climate change, latitudinal gradient, plant communities, productivity

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Authors: R. M. Chandler, A. J. Stringer

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In adults, short bursts of high-intensity exercise (intensities between 80-95% of maximum heart rates) increase cardiovascular and metabolic function without the time investment of traditional aerobic training. Similar improvements in various health indices are also becoming increasingly evident in children in countries other than the United States. In the United States, physical education programs have become shorter in length and fewer in frequency. With this in the background, it is imperative that health and physical educators delivered well-organized and focused fitness programs that can be tolerated across many different somatotypes. Perhaps the least effective lag-time in a US physical education (PE) class is the first 10 minutes, a time during which children warm up. Replacing a traditional PE warmup with a 10 min high-intensity excise protocol is a time-efficient method to impact health, leaving as much time for other PE material such as skill development, motor behavior development as possible. This supplemented 10 min high-intensity exercise increases cardiovascular function as well as induces favorable body composition changes in as little as six weeks with further enhancement throughout a semester of activity. The supplemental high-intensity exercise did not detract from the PE lesson outcomes.

Keywords: cardiovascular fitness, high intensity interval training, high intensity exercise, pediatric

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Authors: Yixin Zhu, Lishengsa Yue, Jian Sun, Lanyue Tang

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Modeling driving distraction in microscopic traffic simulation is crucial for enhancing simulation accuracy. Current driving distraction models are mainly derived from physical motion constraints under distracted states, in which distraction-related error terms are added to existing microscopic driver models. However, the model accuracy is not very satisfying, due to a lack of modeling the cognitive mechanism underlying the distraction. This study models driving distraction based on the Queueing Network Human Processor model (QN-MHP). This study utilizes the queuing structure of the model to perform task invocation and switching for distracted operation and control of the vehicle under driver distraction. Based on the assumption of the QN-MHP model about the cognitive sub-network, server F is a structural bottleneck. The latter information must wait for the previous information to leave server F before it can be processed in server F. Therefore, the waiting time for task switching needs to be calculated. Since the QN-MHP model has different information processing paths for auditory information and visual information, this study divides driving distraction into two types: auditory distraction and visual distraction. For visual distraction, both the visual distraction task and the driving task need to go through the visual perception sub-network, and the stimuli of the two are asynchronous, which is called stimulus on asynchrony (SOA), so when calculating the waiting time for switching tasks, it is necessary to consider it. In the case of auditory distraction, the auditory distraction task and the driving task do not need to compete for the server resources of the perceptual sub-network, and their stimuli can be synchronized without considering the time difference in receiving the stimuli. According to the Theory of Planned Behavior for drivers (TPB), this study uses risk entropy as the decision criterion for driver task switching. A logistic regression model is used with risk entropy as the independent variable to determine whether the driver performs a distraction task, to explain the relationship between perceived risk and distraction. Furthermore, to model a driver’s perception characteristics, a neurophysiological model of visual distraction tasks is incorporated into the QN-MHP, and executes the classical Intelligent Driver Model. The proposed driving distraction model integrates the psychological cognitive process of a driver with the physical motion characteristics, resulting in both high accuracy and interpretability. This paper uses 773 segments of distracted car-following in Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study data (SH-NDS) to classify the patterns of distracted behavior on different road facilities and obtains three types of distraction patterns: numbness, delay, and aggressiveness. The model was calibrated and verified by simulation. The results indicate that the model can effectively simulate the distracted car-following behavior of different patterns on various roadway facilities, and its performance is better than the traditional IDM model with distraction-related error terms. The proposed model overcomes the limitations of physical-constraints-based models in replicating dangerous driving behaviors, and internal characteristics of an individual. Moreover, the model is demonstrated to effectively generate more dangerous distracted driving scenarios, which can be used to construct high-value automated driving test scenarios.

Keywords: computational cognitive model, driving distraction, microscopic traffic simulation, psychological-physical constraints

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Authors: Adriana M. Duquette, Derek P. Bornath

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Reaction Time (RT) and Movement Time (MT) are important components of everyday life that have an effect on the way in which we move about our environment. These measures become even more crucial when an event can be caused (or avoided) in a fraction of a second, such as the RT and MT required while driving. The purpose of this study was to develop a more simple method of testing RT and MT during simulated driving with or without text messaging, in a university-aged population (n = 170). In the control condition, a randomly-delayed red light stimulus flashed on a computer interface after the participant began pressing the ‘gas’ pedal on a foot switch mat. Simple RT was defined as the time between the presentation of the light stimulus and the initiation of lifting the foot from the switch mat ‘gas’ pedal; while MT was defined as the time after the initiation of lifting the foot, to the initiation of depressing the switch mat ‘brake’ pedal. In the texting condition, upon pressing the ‘gas’ pedal, a ‘text message’ appeared on the computer interface in a dialog box that the participant typed on their cell phone while waiting for the light stimulus to turn red. In both conditions, the sequence was repeated 10 times, and an average RT (seconds) and average MT (seconds) were recorded. Condition significantly (p = .000) impacted overall RTs, as the texting condition (0.47 s) took longer than the no-texting (control) condition (0.34 s). Longer MTs were also recorded during the texting condition (0.28 s) than in the control condition (0.23 s), p = .001. Overall increases in Response Time (RT + MT) of 189 ms during the texting condition would equate to an additional 4.2 meters (to react to the stimulus and begin braking) if the participant had been driving an automobile at 80 km per hour. In conclusion, increasing task complexity due to the dual-task demand of text messaging during simulated driving caused significant increases in RT (41%), MT (23%) and Response Time (34%), thus further strengthening the mounting evidence against text messaging while driving.

Keywords: simulated driving, text messaging, reaction time, movement time

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Authors: S. P. Singh, Priya, Komal Sajwan

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With the increasing spread of organic farming in India, costs, returns, efficiency, and social and environmental sustainability of organic vis-a-vis conventional farming systems have become topics of interest among agriculture scientists, economists, and policy analysts. A study on technical efficiency estimation under these farming systems, particularly in the Ganga River Basin, where the promotion of organic farming is incentivized, can help to understand whether the inputs are utilized to their maximum possible level and what measures can be taken to improve the efficiency. This paper, therefore, analyses the technical efficiency of wheat farms operating under organic and conventional farming systems. The study is based on a primary survey of 600 farms (300 organic ad 300 conventional) conducted in 2021 in two districts located in the Middle Ganga River Basin, India. Technical, managerial, and scale efficiencies of individual farms are estimated by applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. The per hectare value of wheat production is taken as an output variable, and values of seeds, human labour, machine cost, plant nutrients, farm yard manure (FYM), plant protection, and irrigation charges are considered input variables for estimating the farm-level efficiencies. The post-DEA analysis is conducted using the Tobit regression model to know the efficiency determining factors. The results show that technical efficiency is significantly higher in conventional than organic farming systems due to a higher gap in scale efficiency than managerial efficiency. Further, 9.8% conventional and only 1.0% organic farms are found operating at the most productive scale size (MPSS), and 99% organic and 81% conventional farms at IRS. Organic farms perform well in managerial efficiency, but their technical efficiency is lower than conventional farms, mainly due to their relatively lower scale size. The paper suggests that technical efficiency in organic wheat can be increased by upscaling the farm size by incentivizing group/collective farming in clusters.

Keywords: organic, conventional, technical efficiency, determinants, DEA, Tobit regression

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Authors: Orit Shamir Balderman, Shamir Michal

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Israel often deals with crisis situations, but most have been characterized as security crises (e.g., war). This is the first time that the Israel has dealt with a health and social emergency as part of a global crisis. The crisis began in January 2020 with the emergence of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19), which was defined as a pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020) and arrived in Israel in early March 2020. This study examined how single mothers by choice (SMBC) experience state anxiety (SA), social support, work–family conflict (WFC), and happiness. This group has not been studied in the context of crises in general or a global crisis. Using a snowball sample, 386 SMBCanswered an online questionnaire. The findings show a negative relationship between income and level of state anxiety. State anxiety was also negatively associated with social support, level of happiness, and WFC. Finally, a stepwise regression analysis indicated that happiness explained 34% of the variance in SA. We also found that most of the women did not turn to formal support agencies such as social workers, other Government Ministries, or municipal welfare. A positive and strong correlations was also found between SA and WFC. The findings of the study reinforce the understanding that although these women made a conscious and informed decision regarding the choice of their family cell, their situation is more complex in the absence of a spouse support. Therefore, this study, as other future studies in the field of SMBC, may contribute to the improvement of their social status and the understanding that they are a unique group. Although SMBC are a growing sector of society in the past few years, there are still special needs and special attention that is needed from the formal and informal supports systems. A comparative study of these two groups and in different countries would shed light on SA among mothers in general, regardless of their relationship status and location.Researchers should expand this study by comparing mothers in relationships and exploring how SMBC coped in other countries. In summary, the findings of the study contribute knowledge on three levels: (a) knowledge about SMBC in general and during crisis situations; (b) examination of social support using tools assessing receipt of assistance and support, some of which were developed for the present study; and (c) insights regarding counseling, accompaniment, and guidance of welfare mechanisms.

Keywords: single mothers by choice, state anxiety, social support, happiness, work–family conflict

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Authors: Juzhong Tan, William Kerr

Abstract:

Conching is one critical procedure in chocolate processing, where special flavors are developed, and smooth mouse feel the texture of the chocolate is developed due to particle size reduction of cocoa mass and other additives. Therefore, determination of the particle size and volatile compounds profile of cocoa bean is important for chocolate manufacturers to ensure the quality of chocolate products. Currently, precise particle size measurement is usually done by laser scattering which is expensive and inaccessible to small/medium size chocolate manufacturers. Also, some other alternatives, such as micrometer and microscopy, can’t provide good measurements and provide little information. Volatile compounds analysis of cocoa during conching, has similar problems due to its high cost and limited accessibility. In this study, a self-made electronic nose system consists of gas sensors (TGS 800 and 2000 series) was inserted to a conching machine and was used to monitoring the volatile compound profile of chocolate during the conching. A model correlated volatile compounds profiles along with factors including the content of cocoa, sugar, and the temperature during the conching to particle size of chocolate particles by genetic programming was established. The model was used to predict the particle size reduction of chocolates with different cocoa mass to sugar ratio (1:2, 1:1, 1.5:1, 2:1) at 8 conching time (15min, 30min, 1h, 1.5h, 2h, 4h, 8h, and 24h). And the predictions were compared to laser scattering measurements of the same chocolate samples. 91.3% of the predictions were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 5% deviation. 99.3% were within the range of later scatting measurement ± 10% deviation.

Keywords: cocoa bean, conching, electronic nose, genetic programming

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Authors: Jane Larkin

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Combining elements of philosophy, science, and creative writing, this investigation explores how a philosophically structured science-fiction novel can challenge the theory of linearity and singularity of time through the ‘many worlds’ theory. This concept is addressed through the creation of a research exegesis and accompanying creative artefact, designed to be read in conjunction with each other in an explorative, interwoven manner. Research undertaken into scientific concepts, such as the ‘many worlds’ interpretation of quantum mechanics and diverse philosophers and their ideologies on time, is embodied in an original science-fiction narrative titled, It Goes On. The five frames that make up the creative artefact are enhanced not only by five leading philosophers and their philosophies on time but by an appreciation of the research, which comes first in the paper. Research into traditional approaches to storytelling is creatively and innovatively inverted in several ways, thus challenging the singularity and linearity of time. Further nonconventional approaches to literary techniques include an abstract narrator, embodied by time, a concept, and a figure in the text, whose voice and vantage point in relation to death furthers the unreliability of the notion of time. These further challenge individuals’ understanding of complex scientific and philosophical views in a variety of ways. The science-fiction genre is essential when considering the speculative nature of It Goes On, which deals with parallel realities and is a fantastical exploration of human ingenuity in plausible futures. Therefore, this paper documents the research-led methodology used to create It Goes On, the application of the ‘many worlds’ theory within a framed narrative, and the many innovative techniques used to contribute new knowledge in a variety of fields.

Keywords: time, many-worlds theory, Heideggerian philosophy, framed narrative

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Authors: Jessy Mattar, Mohamad Turk, Maurice Nonus, Nikolai Lebovka, Henri El Zakhem, Eugene Vorobiev

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The effects of electro-stimulation of S. cerevisiae cells in colloidal suspension by Pulsed Electric Fields ‎‎(PEF) with electric field strength E = 20 – 2000 V.cm-1 and effective PEF treatment time tPEF = 10^−5 – 1 s were ‎investigated. The applied experimental procedure includes variations in the preliminary fermentation time and ‎electro-stimulation by PEF-treatment. Plate counting was performed.‎ At relatively high electric fields (E ≥ 1000 V.cm-1) and moderate PEF treatment time (tPEF > 100 µs), the ‎extraction of ionic components from yeast was observed by conductivity measurements, which can be related to ‎electroporation of cell membranes. Cell counting revealed a dependency of the colonies’ size on the time of ‎preliminary fermentation tf and the power consumption W, however no dependencies were noticeable by varying the initial yeast concentration in the treated suspensions.‎

Keywords: intensification, yeast, fermentation, electroporation, biotechnology

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