Search results for: modelling transport
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3587

Search results for: modelling transport

1337 Modeling Stream Flow with Prediction Uncertainty by Using SWAT Hydrologic and RBNN Neural Network Models for Agricultural Watershed in India

Authors: Ajai Singh

Abstract:

Simulation of hydrological processes at the watershed outlet through modelling approach is essential for proper planning and implementation of appropriate soil conservation measures in Damodar Barakar catchment, Hazaribagh, India where soil erosion is a dominant problem. This study quantifies the parametric uncertainty involved in simulation of stream flow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed scale model and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN), an artificial neural network model. Both the models were calibrated and validated based on measured stream flow and quantification of the uncertainty in SWAT model output was assessed using ‘‘Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm’’ (SUFI-2). Though both the model predicted satisfactorily, but RBNN model performed better than SWAT with R2 and NSE values of 0.92 and 0.92 during training, and 0.71 and 0.70 during validation period, respectively. Comparison of the results of the two models also indicates a wider prediction interval for the results of the SWAT model. The values of P-factor related to each model shows that the percentage of observed stream flow values bracketed by the 95PPU in the RBNN model as 91% is higher than the P-factor in SWAT as 87%. In other words the RBNN model estimates the stream flow values more accurately and with less uncertainty. It could be stated that RBNN model based on simple input could be used for estimation of monthly stream flow, missing data, and testing the accuracy and performance of other models.

Keywords: SWAT, RBNN, SUFI 2, bootstrap technique, stream flow, simulation

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1336 Prediction of Embankment Fires at Railway Infrastructure Using Machine Learning, Geospatial Data and VIIRS Remote Sensing Imagery

Authors: Jan-Peter Mund, Christian Kind

Abstract:

In view of the ongoing climate change and global warming, fires along railways in Germany are occurring more frequently, with sometimes massive consequences for railway operations and affected railroad infrastructure. In the absence of systematic studies within the infrastructure network of German Rail, little is known about the causes of such embankment fires. Since a further increase in these hazards is to be expected in the near future, there is a need for a sound knowledge of triggers and drivers for embankment fires as well as methodical knowledge of prediction tools. Two predictable future trends speak for the increasing relevance of the topic: through the intensification of the use of rail for passenger and freight transport (e.g..: doubling of annual passenger numbers by 2030, compared to 2019), there will be more rail traffic and also more maintenance and construction work on the railways. This research project approach uses satellite data to identify historical embankment fires along rail network infrastructure. The team links data from these fires with infrastructure and weather data and trains a machine-learning model with the aim of predicting fire hazards on sections of the track. Companies reflect on the results and use them on a pilot basis in precautionary measures.

Keywords: embankment fires, railway maintenance, machine learning, remote sensing, VIIRS data

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1335 Observations of Magnetospheric Ulf Waves in Connection to the Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability at Mercury

Authors: Elisabet Liljeblad, Tomas Karlsson, Torbjorn Sundberg, Anita Kullen

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The magnetospheric magnetic field data from the MESSENGER spacecraft is investigated to establish the presence of ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in connection to 131 previously observed nonlinear Kelvin-Helmholtz waves (KHWs) at Mercury. Distinct ULF signatures are detected in 44 out of the 131 magnetospheric traversals prior to or after observing a KHW. In particular, 39 of these 44 ULF events are highly coherent at the frequency of maximum power spectral density. The waves observed at the dayside, which appears mainly at the duskside and naturally following the KHW occurrence asymmetry, are significantly different to the events behind the dawn-dusk terminator and have the following distinct wave characteristics: they oscillate clearly in the perpendicular (azimuthal) direction to the mean magnetic field with a wave normal angle more in the parallel than the perpendicular direction, increase in absolute ellipticity with distance from noon, are almost exclusively right-hand polarized, and are observed mainly for frequencies in the range 0.02-0.04 Hz. These results indicate that the dayside ULF waves are likely to shear Alfvén waves driven by KHWs at the magnetopause, which in turn manifests the importance of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in terms of mass transport throughout the Mercury magnetosphere.

Keywords: ultra-low frequency waves, kelvin-Helmholtz instability, magnetospheric processes, mercury, messenger, energy and momentum transfer in planetary environments

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1334 Artificial Intelligence for Generative Modelling

Authors: Shryas Bhurat, Aryan Vashistha, Sampreet Dinakar Nayak, Ayush Gupta

Abstract:

As the technology is advancing more towards high computational resources, there is a paradigm shift in the usage of these resources to optimize the design process. This paper discusses the usage of ‘Generative Design using Artificial Intelligence’ to build better models that adapt the operations like selection, mutation, and crossover to generate results. The human mind thinks of the simplest approach while designing an object, but the intelligence learns from the past & designs the complex optimized CAD Models. Generative Design takes the boundary conditions and comes up with multiple solutions with iterations to come up with a sturdy design with the most optimal parameter that is given, saving huge amounts of time & resources. The new production techniques that are at our disposal allow us to use additive manufacturing, 3D printing, and other innovative manufacturing techniques to save resources and design artistically engineered CAD Models. Also, this paper discusses the Genetic Algorithm, the Non-Domination technique to choose the right results using biomimicry that has evolved for current habitation for millions of years. The computer uses parametric models to generate newer models using an iterative approach & uses cloud computing to store these iterative designs. The later part of the paper compares the topology optimization technology with Generative Design that is previously being used to generate CAD Models. Finally, this paper shows the performance of algorithms and how these algorithms help in designing resource-efficient models.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, bio mimicry, generative modeling, non-dominant techniques

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1333 Supersonic Flow around a Dihedral Airfoil: Modeling and Experimentation Investigation

Authors: A. Naamane, M. Hasnaoui

Abstract:

Numerical modeling of fluid flows, whether compressible or incompressible, laminar or turbulent presents a considerable contribution in the scientific and industrial fields. However, the development of an approximate model of a supersonic flow requires the introduction of specific and more precise techniques and methods. For this purpose, the object of this paper is modeling a supersonic flow of inviscid fluid around a dihedral airfoil. Based on the thin airfoils theory and the non-dimensional stationary Steichen equation of a two-dimensional supersonic flow in isentropic evolution, we obtained a solution for the downstream velocity potential of the oblique shock at the second order of relative thickness that characterizes a perturbation parameter. This result has been dealt with by the asymptotic analysis and characteristics method. In order to validate our model, the results are discussed in comparison with theoretical and experimental results. Indeed, firstly, the comparison of the results of our model has shown that they are quantitatively acceptable compared to the existing theoretical results. Finally, an experimental study was conducted using the AF300 supersonic wind tunnel. In this experiment, we have considered the incident upstream Mach number over a symmetrical dihedral airfoil wing. The comparison of the different Mach number downstream results of our model with those of the existing theoretical data (relative margin between 0.07% and 4%) and with experimental results (concordance for a deflection angle between 1° and 11°) support the validation of our model with accuracy.

Keywords: asymptotic modelling, dihedral airfoil, supersonic flow, supersonic wind tunnel

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1332 Choice Experiment Approach on Evaluation of Non-Market Farming System Outputs: First Results from Lithuanian Case Study

Authors: A. Novikova, L. Rocchi, G. Startiene

Abstract:

Market and non-market outputs are produced jointly in agriculture. Their supply depends on the intensity and type of production. The role of agriculture as an economic activity and its effects are important for the Lithuanian case study, as agricultural land covers more than a half of country. Positive and negative externalities, created in agriculture are not considered in the market. Therefore, specific techniques such as stated preferences methods, in particular choice experiments (CE) are used for evaluation of non-market outputs in agriculture. The main aim of this paper is to present construction of the research path for evaluation of non-market farming system outputs in Lithuania. The conventional and organic farming, covering crops (including both cereal and industrial crops) and livestock (including dairy and cattle) production has been selected. The CE method and nested logit (NL) model were selected as appropriate for evaluation of non-market outputs of different farming systems in Lithuania. A pilot survey was implemented between October–November 2018, in order to test and improve the CE questionnaire. The results of the survey showed that the questionnaire is accepted and well understood by the respondents. The econometric modelling showed that the selected NL model could be used for the main survey. The understanding of the differences between organic and conventional farming by residents was identified. It was revealed that they are more willing to choose organic farming in comparison to conventional farming.

Keywords: choice experiments, farming system, Lithuania market outputs, non-market outputs

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1331 Application of Italian Guidelines for Existing Bridge Management

Authors: Giovanni Menichini, Salvatore Giacomo Morano, Gloria Terenzi, Luca Salvatori, Maurizio Orlando

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The “Guidelines for Risk Classification, Safety Assessment, and Structural Health Monitoring of Existing Bridges” were recently approved by the Italian Government to define technical standards for managing the national network of existing bridges. These guidelines provide a framework for risk mitigation and safety assessment of bridges, which are essential elements of the built environment and form the basis for the operation of transport systems. Within the guideline framework, a workflow based on three main points was proposed: (1) risk-based, i.e., based on typical parameters of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure; (2) multi-level, i.e., including six assessment levels of increasing complexity; and (3) multirisk, i.e., assessing structural/foundational, seismic, hydrological, and landslide risks. The paper focuses on applying the Italian Guidelines to specific case studies, aiming to identify the parameters that predominantly influence the determination of the “class of attention”. The significance of each parameter is determined via sensitivity analysis. Additionally, recommendations for enhancing the process of assigning the class of attention are proposed.

Keywords: bridge safety assessment, Italian guidelines implementation, risk classification, structural health monitoring

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1330 Design, Analysis and Optimization of Space Frame for BAJA SAE Chassis

Authors: Manoj Malviya, Shubham Shinde

Abstract:

The present study focuses on the determination of torsional stiffness of a space frame chassis and comparison of elements used in the Finite Element Analysis of frame. The study also discusses various concepts and design aspects of a space frame chassis with the emphasis on their applicability in BAJA SAE vehicles. Torsional stiffness is a very important factor that determines the chassis strength, vehicle control, and handling. Therefore, it is very important to determine the torsional stiffness of the vehicle before designing an optimum chassis so that it should not fail during extreme conditions. This study determines the torsional stiffness of frame with respect to suspension shocks, roll-stiffness and anti-roll bar rates. A spring model is developed to study the effects of suspension parameters. The engine greatly contributes to torsional stiffness, and therefore, its effects on torsional stiffness need to be considered. Deflections in the tire have not been considered in the present study. The proper element shape should be selected to analyze the effects of various loadings on chassis while implementing finite element methods. The study compares the accuracy of results and computational time for different element types. Shape functions of these elements are also discussed. Modelling methodology is discussed for the multibody analysis of chassis integrated with suspension arms and engine. Proper boundary conditions are presented so as to replicate the real life conditions.

Keywords: space frame chassis, torsional stiffness, multi-body analysis of chassis, element selection

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1329 A Uniformly Convergent Numerical Scheme for a Singularly Perturbed Volterra Integrodifferential Equation

Authors: Nana Adjoah Mbroh, Suares Clovis Oukouomi Noutchie

Abstract:

Singularly perturbed problems are parameter dependent problems, and they play major roles in the modelling of real-life situational problems in applied sciences. Thus, designing efficient numerical schemes to solve these problems is of much interest since the exact solutions of such problems may not even exist. Generally, singularly perturbed problems are identified by a small parameter multiplying at least the highest derivative in the equation. The presence of this parameter causes the solution of these problems to be characterized by rapid oscillations. This unique feature renders classical numerical schemes inefficient since they are unable to capture the behaviour of the exact solution in the part of the domain where the rapid oscillations are present. In this paper, a numerical scheme is proposed to solve a singularly perturbed Volterra Integro-differential equation. The scheme is based on the midpoint rule and employs the non-standard finite difference scheme to solve the differential part whilst the composite trapezoidal rule is used for the integral part. A fully fledged error estimate is performed, and Richardson extrapolation is applied to accelerate the convergence of the scheme. Numerical simulations are conducted to confirm the theoretical findings before and after extrapolation.

Keywords: midpoint rule, non-standard finite difference schemes, Richardson extrapolation, singularly perturbed problems, trapezoidal rule, uniform convergence

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1328 Excitation Density and Energy Dependent Relaxation Dynamics of Charge Carriers in Large Area 2D TMDCs

Authors: Ashish Soni, Suman Kalyan Pal

Abstract:

Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) are an emerging paradigm for the generation of advanced materials which are capable of utilizing in future device applications. In recent years TMDCs have attracted researchers for their unique band structure in monolayers. Large-area monolayers could become the most appropriate candidate for flexible and thin optoelectronic devices. For this purpose, it is crucial to understand the generation and transport of charge carriers in low dimensions. A deep understanding of photo-generated hot charges and trapped charges is essential to improve the performance of optoelectronic devices. Carrier trapping by the defect states that are introduced during the growth process of the monolayer could influence the dynamical behaviour of charge carriers. Herein, we investigated some aspects of the ultrafast evolution of the initially generated hot carriers and trapped charges in large-area monolayer WS₂ by measuring transient absorption at energies above and below the band gap energy. Our excitation density and energy-dependent measurements reveal the trapping of the initially generated charge carrier. Our results could be beneficial for the development of TMDC-based optoelectronic devices.

Keywords: transient absorption, optoelectronics, 2D materials, TMDCs, exciton

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1327 Critical Study on the Sensitivity of Corrosion Fatigue Crack Growth Rate to Cyclic Waveform and Microstructure in Marine Steel

Authors: V. C. Igwemezie, A. N. Mehmanparast

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The primary focus of this work is to understand how variations in the microstructure and cyclic waveform affect the corrosion fatigue crack growth (CFCG) in steel, especially in the Paris region of the da/dN vs. ΔK curve. This work is important because it provides fundamental information on the modelling, design, selection, and use of steels for various engineering applications in the marine environment. The corrosion fatigue tests data on normalized and thermomechanical control process (TMCP) ferritic-pearlitic steels by the authors were compared with several studies on different microstructures in the literature. The microstructures of these steels are radically different and general comparative fatigue crack growth resistance performance study on the effect of microstructure in these materials are very scarce and where available are limited to few studies. The results, for purposes of engineering application, in this study show less dependency of fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR) on yield strength, tensile strength, ductility, frequency and stress ratio in the range 0.1 – 0.7. The nature of the steel microstructure appears to be a major factor in determining the rate at which fatigue cracks propagate in the entire da/dN vs. ΔK sigmoidal curve. The study also shows that the sine wave shape is the most damaging fatigue waveform for ferritic-pearlitic steels. This tends to suggest that the test under sine waveform would be a conservative approach, regardless of the waveform for design of engineering structures.

Keywords: BS7910, corrosion-fatigue crack growth rate, cyclic waveform, microstructure, steel

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1326 A Relationship between Transformational Leadership, Internal Audit and Risk Management Implementation in the Indonesian Public Sector

Authors: Tio Novita Efriani

Abstract:

Public sector organizations work in a complex and risky environment. Since the beginning of 2000s, the public sector has paid attention to the need for an effective risk management. The Indonesian public sector has also concerned about this issue and in 2008 it enacted the Government Regulation that gives mandate for the implementation of risk management in government organizations. This paper investigates risk management implementation in the Indonesian public sector organizations and the role of transformational leadership and internal audit activities. Data was collected via survey. A total of 202 effective responses (30% response rate) from employees in 34 government ministries were statistically analyzed by using Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and the software was SmartPLS 3.0. All the constructs were lower order, except for the risk management implementation construct, which was treated as a second-order construct. A two-stage approach was employed in the analysis of the higher order component. The findings revealed that transformational leadership positively influence risk management implementation. The findings also found that the core and legitimate roles of internal audit in risk management positively affect the implementation of risk management. The final finding showed that internal auditing mediates a relationship between transformational leadership and risk management implementation. These results suggest that the implementation of risk management in the Indonesian public sector was significantly supported by internal auditors and leadership. The findings confirm the importance of transformational leadership and internal audit in the public sector risk management strategies.

Keywords: Indonesian public sector, internal audit, risk management, transformational leadership

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1325 Numerical Solution of Space Fractional Order Linear/Nonlinear Reaction-Advection Diffusion Equation Using Jacobi Polynomial

Authors: Shubham Jaiswal

Abstract:

During modelling of many physical problems and engineering processes, fractional calculus plays an important role. Those are greatly described by fractional differential equations (FDEs). So a reliable and efficient technique to solve such types of FDEs is needed. In this article, a numerical solution of a class of fractional differential equations namely space fractional order reaction-advection dispersion equations subject to initial and boundary conditions is derived. In the proposed approach shifted Jacobi polynomials are used to approximate the solutions together with shifted Jacobi operational matrix of fractional order and spectral collocation method. The main advantage of this approach is that it converts such problems in the systems of algebraic equations which are easier to be solved. The proposed approach is effective to solve the linear as well as non-linear FDEs. To show the reliability, validity and high accuracy of proposed approach, the numerical results of some illustrative examples are reported, which are compared with the existing analytical results already reported in the literature. The error analysis for each case exhibited through graphs and tables confirms the exponential convergence rate of the proposed method.

Keywords: space fractional order linear/nonlinear reaction-advection diffusion equation, shifted Jacobi polynomials, operational matrix, collocation method, Caputo derivative

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1324 Detailed Depositional Resolutions in Upper Miocene Sands of HT-3X Well, Nam Con Son Basin, Vietnam

Authors: Vo Thi Hai Quan

Abstract:

Nam Con Son sedimentary basin is one of the very important oil and gas basins in offshore Vietnam. Hai Thach field of block 05-2 contains mostly gas accumulations in fine-grained, sand/mud-rich turbidite system, which was deposited in a turbidite channel and fan environment. Major Upper Miocene reservoir of HT-3X lies above a well-developed unconformity. The main objectives of this study are to reconstruct depositional environment and to assess the reservoir quality using data from 14 meters of core samples and digital wireline data of the well HT-3X. The wireline log and core data showed that the vertical sequences of representative facies of the well mainly range from Tb to Te divisions of Bouma sequences with predominance of Tb and Tc compared to Td and Te divisions. Sediments in this well were deposited in a submarine fan association with very fine to fine-grained, homogeneous sandstones that have high porosity and permeability, high- density turbidity currents with longer transport route from the sediment source to the basin, indicating good quality of reservoir. Sediments are comprised mainly of the following sedimentary structures: massive, laminated sandstones, convoluted bedding, laminated ripples, cross-laminated ripples, deformed sandstones, contorted bedding.

Keywords: Hai Thach field, Miocene sand, turbidite, wireline data

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1323 Feasibility Studies through Quantitative Methods: The Revamping of a Tourist Railway Line in Italy

Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

Abstract:

Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality

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1322 Experimental Modelling Gear Contact with TE77 Energy Pulse Setup

Authors: Zainab Mohammed Shukur, Najlaa Ali Alboshmina, Ali Safa Alsaegh

Abstract:

The project was investigated tribological behavior of polyether ether ketone (PEEK1000) against PEEK1000 rolling sliding (non-conformal) configuration with slip ratio 83.3%, were tested applications using a TE77 wear mechanisms and friction coefficient test rig. Under marginal lubrication conditions and the absence of film thick conditions, load 100 N was used to simulate the torque in gears 7 N.m. The friction coefficient and wear mechanisms of PEEK were studied under reciprocating roll/slide conditions with water, ethylene glycol, silicone, and base oil. Tribological tests were conducted on a TE77 high-frequency tribometer, with a disc-on-plate slide/roll (the energy pulse criterion) configuration. An Alicona G5 optical 3D micro-coordinate measurement microscope was used to investigate the surface topography and wear mechanisms. The surface roughness had been a significant effect on the friction coefficient for the PEEK/PEEK the rolling sliding contact test ethylene glycol and on the wear mechanisms. When silicone, ethylene glycol, and oil were used as a lubricant, the steady state of friction coefficient was reached faster than the other lubricant. Results describe the effect of the film thick with slip ratio of 83.3% on the tribological performance.

Keywords: polymer, rolling- sliding, energy pulse, gear contact

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1321 Comparison between Simulation and Experimentally Observed Interactions between Two Different Sized Magnetic Beads in a Fluidic System

Authors: Olayinka Oduwole, Steve Sheard

Abstract:

The magnetic separation of biological cells using super-magnetic beads has been used widely for various bioassays. These bioassays can further be integrated with other laboratory components to form a biosensor which can be used for cell sorting, mixing, purification, transport, manipulation etc. These bio-sensing applications have also been facilitated by the wide availability of magnetic beads which range in size and magnetic properties produced by different manufacturers. In order to improve the efficiency and separation capabilities of these biosensors, it is important to determine the magnetic force induced velocities and interaction of beads within the magnetic field; this will help biosensor users choose the desired magnetic bead for their specific application. This study presents for the first time the interaction between a pair of different sized super-paramagnetic beads suspended in a static fluid moving within a uniform magnetic field using a modified finite-time-finite-difference scheme. A captured video was used to record the trajectory pattern and a good agreement was obtained between the simulated trajectories and the video data. The model is, therefore, a good approximation for predicting the velocities as well as the interaction between various magnetic particles which differ in size and magnetic properties for bio-sensing applications requiring a low concentration of magnetic beads.

Keywords: biosensor, magnetic field, magnetic separation, super-paramagnetic bead

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1320 Reverse Logistics in Clothing Recycling: A Case Study in Chengdu

Authors: Guo Yan

Abstract:

Clothing recycling bin is a traditional way to collect textile waste in many areas. In the clothing recycling business, the transportation cost normally takes over 50% of total costs. This case gives a good way to reduce transportation cost by reverse logistics system. In this reverse logistics system, there are offline strategic alliance partners, such as transport firms, convenience stores, laundries, and post office which are integrated onto the mobile APP. Offline strategic alliance partners provide the service of textile waste collection, and transportation by their vacant vehicles return journey from convenience stores, laundries and post offices to sorting centers. The results of the case study provide the strategic alliance with a valuable and light - asset business model by using the logistics of offline memberships. The company in this case just focuses on textile waste sorting, reuse, recycling etc. The research method of this paper is a case study of a clothing recycling company in Chengdu by field research and interview; the analysis is based on the theory of the reverse logistics system.

Keywords: closed-loop recycles system, clothing recycling, end-of-life clothing, sharing economy, strategic alliance, reverse logistics.

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1319 Measuring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Mobile High Efficiency Particulate Air Filtering on Particulate Matter within the Road Traffic Network of a Sample of Non-Sparse and Sparse Urban Environments in the UK

Authors: Richard Maguire

Abstract:

This research evaluates the efficiency of using mobile HEPA filters to reduce localized Particulate Matter (PM), Total Volatile Organic Chemical (TVOC) and Formaldehyde (HCHO) Air Pollution. The research is being performed using a standard HEPA filter that is tube fitted and attached to a motor vehicle. The velocity of the vehicle is used to generate the pressure difference that allows the filter to remove PM, VOC and HCOC pollution from the localized atmosphere of a road transport traffic route. The testing has been performed on a sample of traffic routes in Non-Sparse and Sparse urban environments within the UK. Pre and Post filter measuring of the PM2.5 Air Quality has been carried out along with demographics of the climate environment, including live filming of the traffic conditions. This provides a base line for future national and international research. The effectiveness measurement is generated through evaluating the difference in PM2.5 Air Quality measured pre- and post- the mobile filter test equipment. A series of further research opportunities and future exploitation options are made based on the results of the research.

Keywords: high efficiency particulate air, HEPA filter, particulate matter, traffic pollution

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1318 Mixed Effects Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting for the Spanish Regions: Castilla-Leon, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalucia

Authors: C. Senabre, S. Valero, M. Lopez, E. Velasco, M. Sanchez

Abstract:

This paper focuses on an application of linear mixed models to short-term load forecasting. The challenge of this research is to improve a currently working model at the Spanish Transport System Operator, programmed by us, and based on linear autoregressive techniques and neural networks. The forecasting system currently forecasts each of the regions within the Spanish grid separately, even though the behavior of the load in each region is affected by the same factors in a similar way. A load forecasting system has been verified in this work by using the real data from a utility. In this research it has been used an integration of several regions into a linear mixed model as starting point to obtain the information from other regions. Firstly, the systems to learn general behaviors present in all regions, and secondly, it is identified individual deviation in each regions. The technique can be especially useful when modeling the effect of special days with scarce information from the past. The three most relevant regions of the system have been used to test the model, focusing on special day and improving the performance of both currently working models used as benchmark. A range of comparisons with different forecasting models has been conducted. The forecasting results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, mixed effects models, neural networks, mixed effects models

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1317 Effective Practical Proceedings in Breaking the Respiratory Infections Transmission Chain in the Community with the Emphasis on SARS-COV-2 Control

Authors: Fatemeh Aghamohammadzadeh, Mahdi Asghari Ozma

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 was transmitted from animals to humans in China and through air transport to almost all world countries, including Iran, creating the first pandemic of the 21st century. The virus was spread through droplets from sneezing, coughing, loud talking, and exhalation of sick and asymptomatic people, even during incubation. It was transmitted from human to human directly by inhalation of viruses in droplets or indirectly through contact with infected surfaces, resulting in the death of a significant number of patients, especially the elderly and those with underlying diseases. The virus is more likely to be transmitted in places with high population densities. The chain of transmission of infection can be broken by observing the following: risk perception, reduced travel, complete quarantine in a particular area, home quarantine, social distancing, use of personal protective equipment (PPE), prevention of gatherings, cleaning and disinfection of public utilities and busy places, identifying, isolating and treating infected people, tracking calls, continuing health education, following health principles by people, especially in poor areas, and washing their hands frequently with soap and water or disinfecting them with 70% ethanol.

Keywords: COVID-19, transmission, population density, home quarantine, social distancing

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1316 Numerical Study of Jet Impingement Heat Transfer

Authors: A. M. Tiara, Sudipto Chakraborty, S. K. Pal

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Impinging jets and their different configurations are important from the viewpoint of the fluid flow characteristics and their influence on heat transfer from metal surfaces due to their complex flow characteristics. Such flow characteristics results in highly variable heat transfer from the surface, resulting in varying cooling rates which affects the mechanical properties including hardness and strength. The overall objective of the current research is to conduct a fundamental investigation of the heat transfer mechanisms for an impinging coolant jet. Numerical simulation of the cooling process gives a detailed analysis of the different parameters involved even though employing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to simulate the real time process, being a relatively new research area, poses many challenges. The heat transfer mechanism in the current research is actuated by jet cooling. The computational tool used in the ongoing research for simulation of the cooling process is ANSYS Workbench software. The temperature and heat flux distribution along the steel strip with the effect of various flow parameters on the heat transfer rate can be observed in addition to determination of the jet impingement patterns, which is the major aim of the present analysis. Modelling both jet and air atomized cooling techniques using CFD methodology and validating with those obtained experimentally- including trial and error with different models and comparison of cooling rates from both the techniques have been included in this work. Finally some concluding remarks are made that identify some gaps in the available literature that have influenced the path of the current investigation.

Keywords: CFD, heat transfer, impinging jets, numerical simulation

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1315 Performance Evaluation of Reinforced Concrete Framed Structure with Steel Bracing and Supplemental Energy Dissipation

Authors: Swanand Patil, Pankaj Agarwal

Abstract:

In past few decades, seismic performance objectives have shifted from earthquake resistance to earthquake resilience of the structures, especially for the lifeline buildings. Features such as negligible post-earthquake damage and replaceable damaged components, makes energy dissipating systems a valid choice for a seismically resilient building. In this study, various energy dissipation devices are applied on an eight-storey moment resisting RC building model. The energy dissipating devices include both hysteresis-based and viscous type of devices. The seismic response of the building is obtained for different positioning and mechanical properties of the devices. The investigation is carried forward to the deficiently ductile RC frame also. The performance assessment is done on the basis of drift ratio, mode shapes and displacement response of the model structures. Nonlinear dynamic analysis shows largely improved displacement response. The damping devices improve displacement response more efficiently in the deficient ductile frames than that in the perfectly moment resisting frames. This finding is important considering the number of deficient buildings in India and the world. The placement and mechanical properties of the dampers prove to be a crucial part in modelling, analyzing and designing of the structures with supplemental energy dissipation.

Keywords: earthquake resilient structures, lifeline buildings, retrofitting of structures, supplemental energy dissipation

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1314 A Large Language Model-Driven Method for Automated Building Energy Model Generation

Authors: Yake Zhang, Peng Xu

Abstract:

The development of building energy models (BEM) required for architectural design and analysis is a time-consuming and complex process, demanding a deep understanding and proficient use of simulation software. To streamline the generation of complex building energy models, this study proposes an automated method for generating building energy models using a large language model and the BEM library aimed at improving the efficiency of model generation. This method leverages a large language model to parse user-specified requirements for target building models, extracting key features such as building location, window-to-wall ratio, and thermal performance of the building envelope. The BEM library is utilized to retrieve energy models that match the target building’s characteristics, serving as reference information for the large language model to enhance the accuracy and relevance of the generated model, allowing for the creation of a building energy model that adapts to the user’s modeling requirements. This study enables the automatic creation of building energy models based on natural language inputs, reducing the professional expertise required for model development while significantly decreasing the time and complexity of manual configuration. In summary, this study provides an efficient and intelligent solution for building energy analysis and simulation, demonstrating the potential of a large language model in the field of building simulation and performance modeling.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, building energy modelling, building simulation, large language model

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1313 Tunable Optoelectronic Properties of WS₂ by Local Strain Engineering and Folding

Authors: Ahmed Raza Khan

Abstract:

Local-strain engineering is an exciting approach to tune the optoelectronic properties of materials and enhance the performance of devices. Two dimensional (2D) materials such as 2D transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs) are particularly well-suited for this purpose because they have high flexibility and can withstand high deformations before rupture. Wrinkles on thick TMDC layers have been reported to show the interesting photoluminescence enhancement due to bandgap modulation and funneling effect. However, the wrinkles in ultrathin TMDCs have not been investigated, because the wrinkles can easily fall down to form folds in these ultrathin layers of TMDCs. Here, we have achieved both wrinkle and fold nano-structures simultaneously on 1-3L WS₂ using a new fabrication technique. The comparable layer dependent reduction in surface potential is observed for both folded layers and corresponding perfect pack layers due to the dominant interlayer screening effect. The strains produced from the wrinkle nanostructures considerably vary semi conductive junction properties. Thermo-ionic modelling suggests that the strained (1.6%) wrinkles can lower the Schottky barrier height (SBH) by 20%. The photo-generated carriers would further significantly lower the SBH. These results present an important advance towards controlling the optoelectronic properties of atomically thin WS₂ using strain engineering, with important implications for practical device applications.

Keywords: strain engineering, folding, WS₂, Kelvin probe force microscopy, KPFM, surface potential, photo current, layer dependence

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1312 The Non-Stationary BINARMA(1,1) Process with Poisson Innovations: An Application on Accident Data

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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1311 Analysis of Two Methods to Estimation Stochastic Demand in the Vehicle Routing Problem

Authors: Fatemeh Torfi

Abstract:

Estimation of stochastic demand in physical distribution in general and efficient transport routs management in particular is emerging as a crucial factor in urban planning domain. It is particularly important in some municipalities such as Tehran where a sound demand management calls for a realistic analysis of the routing system. The methodology involved critically investigating a fuzzy least-squares linear regression approach (FLLRs) to estimate the stochastic demands in the vehicle routing problem (VRP) bearing in mind the customer's preferences order. A FLLR method is proposed in solving the VRP with stochastic demands. Approximate-distance fuzzy least-squares (ADFL) estimator ADFL estimator is applied to original data taken from a case study. The SSR values of the ADFL estimator and real demand are obtained and then compared to SSR values of the nominal demand and real demand. Empirical results showed that the proposed methods can be viable in solving problems under circumstances of having vague and imprecise performance ratings. The results further proved that application of the ADFL was realistic and efficient estimator to face the stochastic demand challenges in vehicle routing system management and solve relevant problems.

Keywords: fuzzy least-squares, stochastic, location, routing problems

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1310 Seismic Performance Evaluation of Structures with Hybrid Dampers Based on FEMA P-58 Methodology

Authors: Minsung Kim, Hyunkoo Kang, Jinkoo Kim

Abstract:

In this study, a hybrid energy dissipation device is developed by combining a steel slit plate and friction pads to be used for seismic retrofit of structures, and its effectiveness is investigated by comparing the life cycle costs of the structure before and after the retrofit. The seismic energy dissipation capability of the dampers is confirmed by cyclic loading tests. The probabilities of reaching various damage states are obtained by fragility analysis, and the life cycle costs of the model structures are computed using the PACT (Performance Assessment Calculation Tool) program based on FEMA P-58 methodology. The fragility analysis shows that the probabilities of reaching limit states are minimized by the seismic retrofit with hybrid dampers and increasing column size. The seismic retrofit with increasing column size and hybrid dampers results in the lowest repair cost and shortest repair time. This research was supported by a grant (13AUDP-B066083-01) from Architecture & Urban Development Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Keywords: FEMA P-58, friction dampers, life cycle cost, seismic retrofit

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1309 Copper Related Toxicity of 1-Hydroxy-2-Thiopyridines

Authors: Elena G. Salina, Vadim A. Makarov

Abstract:

With the emergence of primary resistance to the current drugs and wide distribution of latent tuberculosis infection, a need for new compounds with a novel mode of action is growing steadily. Copper-mediated innate immunity and antibacterial toxicity propose novel strategies in TB drug discovery and development. Transcriptome of M. tuberculosis was obtained by RNA-seq, intracellular copper content was measured by ISP MS and complexes of 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines with copper were detected by HPLC.1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridine derivatives were found to be highly active in vitro against both actively growing and dormant non-culturable M. tuberculosis. Transcriptome response to 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines revealed signs of copper toxicity in M. tuberculosis bacilli. Indeed, Cu was found to accumulate inside cells treated with 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines. These compounds were found to form stable charged lipophylic complexes with Cu²⁺ ions which transport into mycobacterial cell. Subsequent metabolic destruction of the complex led to transformation of 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines into 2-methylmercapto-2-ethoxycarbonylpyridines, which did not possess antitubercular activity and releasing of free Cu²⁺ in the cytoplasm. 1-hydroxy-2-thiopyridines are a potent class of Cu-dependent inhibitors of M. tuberculosis which may control M. tuberculosis infection by impairment of copper homeostasis. Acknowledgment: This work was financially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the RussianFederation (Agreement No 14.616.21.0065; unique identifier RFMEFI61616X0065).

Keywords: copper toxicity, drug discovery, M. tuberculosis inhibitors, 2-thiopyridines

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1308 Addressing the Silent Killer: The Shift in Local Governance to Combat Air Pollution

Authors: Jayati Das

Abstract:

Kolkata, one of the fastest-growing metropolises in India, has been suffering from air pollution for many decades. Mismanagement of government and an increase in automobiles have been fuelling this problem. The study aims to portray the quality of air along with the influence of traffic flow and vehicular growth and the effects on human health. It further shows the correlation between the emission of pollution during weekdays and weekends with the help of a scatter diagram and trend line. An assessment of Kolkata air quality is done where the listed pollutants’ (RPM, SPM, NO2, and SO2) annual average concentrations are classified into four different categories. Our observed association between childhood Acute Respiratory disorder and early life exposure to traffic-related air pollutants is biologically plausible. The period of in utero and the first year of life is critical in the development of the immune and respiratory systems and potentially harmful effects of toxic pollutants during this period might result in the long-lasting impaired capacity to fight infections and increased risk of allergic manifestations. Up-to-date knowledge about the seasonal and spatial variation of asthma and studying the air quality of the area is done through Geographical Information System (GIS). Steps are taken by the government to control air pollution by alternative public transport like the metro and compulsory certification of period-driven vehicles which test for Carbon mono oxide.

Keywords: air pollution, asthma, GIS, hotspots, governance

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