Search results for: process modeling advancements

Authors: Shu Tao

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Based on a global fuel consumption data product (PKU-FUEL-2007) compiled recently and a series of databases for emission factors of various sources, global emission inventories of a number of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, including CO2, CO, SO2, NOx, primary particulate matter (total, PM 10, and PM 2.5), black carbon, organic carbon, mercury, volatile organic carbons, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, from combustion sources have been developed. The inventories feather high spatial and sectorial resolutions. The spatial resolution of the inventories are 0.1 by 0.1 degree, based on a sub-national disaggregation approach to reduce spatial bias due to uneven distribution of per person fuel consumption within countries. The finely resolved inventories provide critical information for chemical transport modeling and exposure modeling. Emissions from more than 60 sources in energy, industry, agriculture, residential, transportation, and wildfire sectors were quantified in this study. With the detailed sectorial information, the inventories become an important tool for policy makers. For residential sector, a set of models were developed to simulate temporal variation of fuel consumption, consequently pollutant emissions. The models can be used to characterize seasonal as well as inter-annual variations in the emissions in history and to predict future changes. The models can even be used to quantify net change of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions due to climate change. The inventories has been used for model ambient air quality, population exposure, and even health effects. A few examples of the applications are discussed.

Keywords: air pollutants, combustion, emission inventory, sectorial information

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Authors: Sina Keyhanian, Abbas Ahmadi, Behrooz Karimi

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We present a multi-objective binary programming model which considers surgical cases are scheduling among operating rooms and the configuration of surgical instruments in limited capacity hospital trays, simultaneously. Many mathematical models have been developed previously in the literature addressing different challenges in health-care logistics such as assigning operating rooms, leveling beds, etc. But what happens inside the operating rooms along with the inventory management of required instruments for various operations, and also their integration with surgical scheduling have been poorly discussed. Our model considers the minimization of movements between trays during a surgery which recalls the famous cell formation problem in group technology. This assumption can also provide a major potential contribution to robotic surgeries. The tray configuration problem which consumes surgical instruments requirement plan (SIRP) and sequence of surgical procedures based on required instruments (SIRO) is nested inside the bin packing problem. This modeling approach helps us understand that most of the same-output solutions will not be necessarily identical when it comes to the rearrangement of surgeries among rooms. A numerical example has been dealt with via a proposed nested simulated annealing (SA) optimization approach which provides insights about how various configurations inside a solution can alter the optimal condition.

Keywords: health-care logistics, hospital tray configuration, off-line bin packing, simulated annealing optimization, surgical case scheduling

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Authors: Sergio Zabala-Vargas, Miguel Jiménez-Barrera, Luz VArgas-Sánchez

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In recent years, information related to project management in organizations has been increasing exponentially. Performance data, management statistics, indicator results have forced the collection, analysis, traceability, and dissemination of project managers to be essential. In this sense, there are current trends to facilitate efficient decision-making in emerging technology projects, such as: Machine Learning, Data Analytics, Data Mining, and Big Data. The latter is the most interesting in this project. This research is part of the thematic line Construction methods and project management. Many authors present the relevance that the use of emerging technologies, such as Big Data, has taken in recent years in project management in the construction sector. The main focus is the optimization of time, scope, budget, and in general mitigating risks. This research was developed in the northeastern region of Colombia-South America. The first phase was aimed at diagnosing the use of emerging technologies (Big-Data) in the construction sector. In Colombia, the construction sector represents more than 50% of the productive system, and more than 2 million people participate in this economic segment. The quantitative approach was used. A survey was applied to a sample of 91 companies in the construction sector. Preliminary results indicate that the use of Big Data and other emerging technologies is very low and also that there is interest in modernizing project management. There is evidence of a correlation between the interest in using new data management technologies and the incorporation of Building Information Modeling BIM. The next phase of the research will allow the generation of guidelines and strategies for the incorporation of technological tools in the construction sector in Colombia.

Keywords: big data, building information modeling, tecnology, project manamegent

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Authors: V. Pizarro-Carmona, S. Castano-Solis, M. Cortés-Carmona, J. Fraile-Ardanuy, D. Jimenez-Bermejo

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The purpose of this article is to optimize the Equivalent Electric Circuit Model (EECM) of different orders to obtain greater precision in the modeling of Li-ion battery packs. Optimization includes considering circuits based on 1RC, 2RC and 3RC networks, with a dependent voltage source and a series resistor. The parameters are obtained experimentally using tests in the time domain and in the frequency domain. Due to the high non-linearity of the behavior of the battery pack, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve and optimize the parameters of each EECM considered (1RC, 2RC and 3RC). The objective of the estimation is to minimize the mean square error between the measured impedance in the real battery pack and those generated by the simulation of different proposed circuit models. The results have been verified by comparing the Nyquist graphs of the estimation of the complex impedance of the pack. As a result of the optimization, the 2RC and 3RC circuit alternatives are considered as viable to represent the battery behavior. These battery pack models are experimentally validated using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation platform that reproduces the well-known New York City cycle (NYCC) and Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycles for electric vehicles. The results show that using GA optimization allows obtaining EECs with 2RC or 3RC networks, with high precision to represent the dynamic behavior of a battery pack in vehicular applications.

Keywords: Li-ion battery packs modeling optimized, EECM, GA, electric vehicle applications

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Authors: Sabri Serkan Gulluoglu

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It is possible with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) that the information about all natural and artificial resources on the earth is obtained taking advantage of satellite images are obtained by remote sensing techniques. However, determination of unknown sources, mapping of the distribution and efficient evaluation of resources are defined may not be possible with the original image. For this reasons, some process steps are needed like transformation, pre-processing, image enhancement and classification to provide the most accurate assessment numerically and visually. Many studies which present the phases of obtaining and processing of the satellite images have examined in the literature study. The research showed that the determination of the process steps may be followed at this subject with the existence of a common whole may provide to progress the process rapidly for the necessary and possible studies which will be.

Keywords: remote sensing, satellite imaging, gis, computer science, information

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Authors: Amokrane Boufares, Elise Provost, Veronique Osswald, Pascal Clain, Anthony Delahaye, Laurence Fournaison, Didier Dalmazzone

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Gas hydrates have long been considered as problematic for flow assurance in natural gas and oil transportation. On the other hand, they are now seen as future promising materials for various applications (i.e. desalination of seawater, natural gas and hydrogen storage, gas sequestration, gas combustion separation and cold storage and transport). Nonetheless, a better understanding of the crystallization mechanism of gas hydrate and of their formation kinetics is still needed for a better comprehension and control of the process. To that purpose, measuring the real-time evolution of the dissolved gas concentration in the aqueous phase during hydrate formation is required. In this work, CO₂ hydrates were formed in a stirred reactor equipped with an Attenuated Total Reflection (ATR) probe coupled to a Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectroscopy analyzer. A method was first developed to continuously measure in-situ the CO₂ concentration in the liquid phase during solubilization, supersaturation, hydrate crystallization and dissociation steps. Thereafter, the measured concentration data were compared with those of equilibrium concentrations. It was observed that the equilibrium is instantly reached in the liquid phase due to the fast consumption of dissolved gas by the hydrate crystallization. Consequently, it was shown that hydrate crystallization kinetics is limited by the gas transfer at the gas-liquid interface. Finally, we noticed that the liquid-hydrate equilibrium during the hydrate crystallization is governed by the temperature of the experiment under the tested conditions.

Keywords: gas hydrate, dissolved gas, crystallization, infrared spectroscopy

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Authors: Bavneet Kaur Sidhu, Manoj Tiwari

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Global Developmental Delay (GDD) is a common pediatric condition. Etiologies of GDD might, however, differ in developing countries. In the last decade, sporadic families are being reported in various countries. As to the author’s best knowledge, many risk factors and their correlation with the prevalence of GDD have been studied but its statistical correlation has not been done. Thus we propose the present study by targeting the risk factor, prevalence and their statistical correlation with GDD. FMR1 gene was studied to confirm the disease and its penetrance. A complete questionnaire-based performance was designed for the statistical studies having a personal, past and present medical history along with their socio-economic status as well. Methods: We distributed the children’s age in 4 different age groups having 5-year intervals and applied structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, Karl Pearson correlation coefficient, and chi-square test.Result: A total of 1100 families were enrolled for this study; among them, 330 were clinically and biologically confirmed (radiological studies) for the disease, 204 were males (61.8%), 126 were females (38.18%). We found that 27.87% were genetic and 72.12 were sporadic, out of 72.12 %, 43.277% cases from urban and 56.72% from the rural locality, the mothers' literacy rate was 32.12% and working women numbers were 41.21%. Conclusions: There is a significant association between mothers' age and GDD prevalence, which is also followed by mothers' literacy rate and mothers' occupation, whereas there was no association between fathers' age and GDD.

Keywords: global developmental delay, FMR1 gene, spearman’ rank correlation coefficient, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Natalia Muratova, Dmitry Klimov, Rafail Isemin, Sergey Kuzmin, Aleksandr Mikhalev, Oleg Milovanov

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We investigated the processing of poultry litter into biochar using dry torrefaction methods (DT) in a fixed and fluidized bed of quartz sand blown with nitrogen, as well as wet torrefaction (WT) in a fluidized bed in a medium of water steam at a temperature of 300 °C. Torrefaction technology affects the duration of the heat treatment process and the characteristics of the biochar: the process of separating CO₂, CO, H₂ and CH₄ from a portion of fresh poultry litter during torrefaction in a fixed bed is completed after 2400 seconds, but in a fluidized bed — after 480 seconds. During WT in a fluidized bed of quartz sand, this process ends in 840 seconds after loading a portion of fresh litter, but in a fluidized bed of litter particles previously subjected to torrefaction, the process ends in 350 - 450 seconds. In terms of the ratio between (H/C) and (O/C), the litter obtained after DT and WT treatment corresponds to lignite. WT in a fluidized bed allows one to obtain biochar, in which the specific pore area is two times larger than the specific pore area of biochar obtained after DT in a fluidized bed. Biochar, obtained as a result of the poultry litter treatment in a fluidized bed using DT or WT method, is recommended to be used not only as a biofuel but also as an adsorbent or the soil fertilizer.

Keywords: biochar, poultry litter, dry and wet torrefaction, fixed bed, fluidized bed

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Authors: Amit Kumar Sinha

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A coal preparation plant typically operates with multiple beneficiation circuits to process individual size fractions of coal obtained from mine so that the targeted overall plant efficiency in terms of yield and ash is achieved. Conventional coal beneficiation plant in India or overseas operates generally in two methods of processing; coarse beneficiation with treatment in dense medium cyclones or in baths and fines beneficiation with treatment in flotation cell. This paper seeks to address the proven application of intermediate circuit along with coarse and fines circuit in Jamadoba New Coal Preparation Plant of capacity 2 Mt/y to treat -0.5 mm+0.25 mm size particles in reflux classifier. Previously this size of particles was treated directly in Flotation cell which had operational and metallurgical limitations which will be discussed in brief in this paper. The paper also details test work results performed on the representative samples of TSL coal washeries to determine the top size of intermediate and fines circuit and discusses about the overlapping process of intermediate circuit and how it is process wise suitable to beneficiate misplaced particles from coarse circuit and fines circuit. This paper also compares the separation efficiency (Ep) of various intermediate circuit process equipment and tries to validate the use of reflux classifier over fine coal DMC or spirals. An overview of Modern coal preparation plant treating Indian coal especially Washery Grade IV coal with reference to Jamadoba New Coal Preparation Plant which was commissioned in 2018 with basis of selection of equipment and plant profile, application of reflux classifier in intermediate circuit and process design criteria is also outlined in this paper.

Keywords: intermediate circuit, overlapping process, reflux classifier

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Authors: M. Sreedhar Babu, Vishal Garg, S. B. Akella, Shibu Clement, N. K. S Rajan

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Producer gas is a biomass derived gaseous fuel which is extensively used in internal combustion engines for power generation application. Unlike the conventional hydrocarbon fuels (Gasoline and Natural gas), the combustion properties of producer gas fuel are much different. Therefore, setting of optimal spark time for efficient engine operation is required. Owing to the fluctuating tendency of producer gas composition during gasification process, the heat release patterns (dictating the power output and emissions) obtained are quite different from conventional fuels. It was found that, valve lift timing is yet another factor which influences the burn rate of producer gas fuel, and thus, the heat release rate of the engine. Therefore, the present study was motivated to estimate the influence of valve lift timing analytically (Wiebe model) on the burn rate of producer gas through curve fitting against experimentally obtained mass fraction burn curves of several producer gas compositions. Furthermore, Wiebe models are widely used in zero-dimensional codes for engine parametric studies and are quite popular. This study also addresses the influence of hydrogen and methane concentration of producer gas on combustion trends, which are known to cause dynamics in engine combustion.

Keywords: combustion duration (CD), crank angle (CA), mass fraction burnt (MFB), producer sas (PG), Wiebe Combustion Model (WCM), wide open throttle (WOT)

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Authors: Stephanie Chen, Mitja Echim, Christof Büskens

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To describe and propagate the behavior of a system mathematical models are formulated. Parameter identification is used to adapt the coefficients of the underlying laws of science. For complex systems this approach can be incomplete and hence imprecise and moreover too slow to be computed efficiently. Therefore, these models might be not applicable for the numerical optimization of real systems, since these techniques require numerous evaluations of the models. Moreover not all quantities necessary for the identification might be available and hence the system must be adapted manually. Therefore, an approach is described that generates models that overcome the before mentioned limitations by not focusing on physical laws, but on measured (sensor) data of real systems. The approach is more general since it generates models for every system detached from the scientific background. Additionally, this approach can be used in a more general sense, since it is able to automatically identify correlations in the data. The method can be classified as a multivariate data regression analysis. In contrast to many other data regression methods this variant is also able to identify correlations of products of variables and not only of single variables. This enables a far more precise and better representation of causal correlations. The basis and the explanation of this method come from an analytical background: the series expansion. Another advantage of this technique is the possibility of real-time adaptation of the generated models during operation. Herewith system changes due to aging, wear or perturbations from the environment can be taken into account, which is indispensable for realistic scenarios. Since these data driven models can be evaluated very efficiently and with high precision, they can be used in mathematical optimization algorithms that minimize a cost function, e.g. time, energy consumption, operational costs or a mixture of them, subject to additional constraints. The proposed method has successfully been tested in several complex applications and with strong industrial requirements. The generated models were able to simulate the given systems with an error in precision less than one percent. Moreover the automatic identification of the correlations was able to discover so far unknown relationships. To summarize the above mentioned approach is able to efficiently compute high precise and real-time-adaptive data-based models in different fields of industry. Combined with an effective mathematical optimization algorithm like WORHP (We Optimize Really Huge Problems) several complex systems can now be represented by a high precision model to be optimized within the user wishes. The proposed methods will be illustrated with different examples.

Keywords: adaptive modeling, automatic identification of correlations, data based modeling, optimization

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Authors: Afef Badri

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Metaphorical creativity does not constitute a static property of discourse. It is an interactive dynamic process created online. There has been a lack of research concerning online produced metaphorical creativity. This paper intends to account for metaphorical creativity in online talk-in-interaction as a dynamic process that emerges as discourse unfolds. It brings together insights from the emergentist approach to the study of metaphor in verbal interactions and insights from conceptual blending approach as a model for analysing online metaphorical constructions to propose a model for studying metaphorical creativity in interactive talk. The model is based on three focal points. First, metaphorical creativity is a dynamic emergent and open-to-change process that evolves in real time as interlocutors constantly blend and re-blend previous metaphorical contributions. Second, it is not a product of isolated individual minds but a joint achievement that is co-constructed and co-elaborated by interlocutors. The third and most important point is that the emergent process of metaphorical creativity is tightly shaped by contextual variables surrounding talk-in-interaction. It is grounded in the framework of interpretation of interlocutors. It is constrained by preceding contributions in a way that creates textual cohesion of the verbal exchange and it is also a goal-oriented process predefined by the communicative intention of each participant in a way that reveals the ideological coherence/incoherence of the entire conversation.

Keywords: communicative intention, conceptual blending, the emergentist approach, metaphorical creativity

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Authors: Geta Bekalu Belayneh, Solmoi Park

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This study examines the role of slag in the process of hydration and carbonation of carbonation-cured slag cement. Carbonation-cured slag-blended cement paste samples were prepared with varying slag percentages of 0%, 10%, 30%, and 50%. The curing process lasted for a maximum of 28 days. The findings demonstrated that the carbonation depth increased as the curing period was extended, and a larger slag percentage promoted a more extensive penetration of carbonation. The degree of belite reaction was greatly enhanced in the slag-blended cement, resulting in an increased ability to bind CO₂ in the blended cement. These findings enhance comprehension of the behaviour of blended cement produced through carbonation-curing, facilitating the advancement of more environmentally friendly and long-lasting concrete constructions.

Keywords: carbonation curing, blast furnace slag, characterization, Portland cement

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Authors: Masoud Mohammadpour, Nima Yazdian, Radovan Kovacevic

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The Oil and Gas industries are vigorously looking for new ways to increase the efficiency of their pipeline constructions. Besides the other approaches, implementing of new welding methods for joining pipes can be the best candidate on this regard. Hybrid Laser Arc Welding (HLAW) with the capabilities of high welding speed, deep penetration, and excellent gap bridging ability can be a possible alternative method in pipeline girth welding. This paper investigates the feasibility of applying the HLAW to join ASTM A106-B as the mostly used piping material for transporting high-temperature and high-pressure fluids and gases. The experiments were carried out on six-inch diameter pipes with the wall thickness of 10mm. AWS ER 70 S6 filler wire with diameter of 1.2mm was employed. Relating to this welding procedure, characterization of welded samples such as hardness, tensile testing and Charpy V-notch testing were performed and the results will be reported in this paper. In order to have better understanding about the thermal history and the microstructural alterations caused by the welding heat cycle, a comprehensive Finite Element (FE) model was also conducted. The obtained results have shown that the Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) procedure with the minimum number of 5 passes to complete the wall thickness, was reduced to only single pass by using the HLAW process with the welding time less than 15s.

Keywords: finite element modeling, high-temperature service, hybrid laser/arc welding, welding pipes

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Authors: Susan Lanz, Gary T. Burke, Omid Omidvar

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The intention to transfer ownership control across family generations is acknowledged to be central to developing a theoretical understanding of how family businesses differ and are distinct as a business group. However, in practice, most business-owning families face challenges to transfer their business ownership from one family generation to the next. To date, researchers have paid little attention to how and when ownership is passed across family generations and what the dynamics of such transitions are. This is primarily due to the prevailing assumption that ownership transfer is an unimportant and legalistic issue that occurs within a wider family management succession process. Yet, the limited evidence available suggests that family ownership transfer occurs inside and outside of the management succession process and is a difficult process for business-owning families to navigate. As a result, many otherwise viable family businesses are closing, leading to unnecessary loss of jobs and knowledge. This qualitative paper examines how family members understand and navigate the ownership transfer process. This study uses an inductive qualitative research design, conducted through in-depth interviews within eight business-owning families. It draws on family development theory and shows how a wide range of family-related events and dynamics outside of family business involvement underlie and shape the ownership transfer process. The findings extend the theory on how these events trigger ownership transfer and how they shape the ownership meanings held within business-owning families. This study found that ownership transfer meanings extend beyond that of transferring the legal control and financial appropriation rights of shareholders. The study concludes there are three different stages in the process of ownership transfer -symbolic, re-balancing, and protectionist. Each stage creates distinct family social constructions of the rights of family members to hold business ownership, and each stage occurs within a specific family development phase.

Keywords: business-owning family, family development theory, ownership transfer, process

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Authors: Elijah Ojochonu Okpanachi

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This paper explores the ethical dimensions of organ donation and transplantation through various philosophical lenses, including utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics. As advancements in medical technology increase the possibilities for life-saving transplants, ethical dilemmas surrounding consent, allocation, and the commodification of human organs have become increasingly pertinent. Utilitarian perspectives emphasize maximizing overall well-being, raising questions about how to equitably allocate limited resources. Deontological approaches focus on the moral obligations of individuals and institutions, particularly regarding informed consent and the sanctity of the human body. Virtue ethics encourages a consideration of the character and intentions of donors and medical professionals, fostering a holistic understanding of the ethical landscape. By analyzing real-world case studies and ethical frameworks, this study highlights the complexities in decision-making processes related to organ donation. It addresses issues such as presumed consent, living donations, and the societal implications of organ markets. Ultimately, this paper aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on organ donation ethics, advocating for policies that respect individual rights while promoting altruism and social responsibility. Through a philosophical lens, we seek to propose a balanced approach that honors both the dignity of individuals and the urgent need for organ transplants in modern medicine.

Keywords: organ donation, medical technology, virtue ethics, Altruism

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Authors: Hyang Lim, Sungwon Choi

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Many previous studies in area of adolescents' depression have used a longitudinal design. The previous studies have found that the developmental trajectory of them is only one. But it needs to be examined whether the trajectory is applied to all adolescents. Some factors in their home and/or school have an effect on adolescents' depression and more likely to be specific groups. The present study was a longitudinal study aimed to identify the trajectories and to explore the predictors of adolescents' depression. The study used Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) data. In this study, 2,351 second and third-year of middle school and first of high school students' data was analyzed by using semi-parametric group modeling (SGM). There were 5 trajectory groups for adolescents; low depressed stables, low depressed risers, moderately depressed decreases, moderately depressed stables, severe depressed decreases. The predictors of adolescents' depression were parental abuse, parental neglect, annual family income, parental academic background, friendship at school, and teacher-student relationship at school. All predictors had the significant difference across trajectory group profile for adolescents. The findings of the present study recommend to promote the socioeconomic status and to train social skill for the interpersonal relationship at the home and school. And the results suggest that the proper prevention programs for each group in the middle adolescents that target selected factors may be helpful in reducing the level of depression.

Keywords: adolescent, depression, KCYPS, school life, semi-parametric group-based modeling

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Authors: Sifriyani Sifriyani, I Nyoman Budiantara, Sri Haryatmi, Gunardi Gunardi

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East Java Province has a first rank as a province that has the most counties and cities in Indonesia and has the largest population. In 2015, the population reached 38.847.561 million, this figure showed a very high population growth. High population growth is feared to lead to increase the levels of unemployment. In this study, the researchers mapped and modeled the unemployment rate with 6 variables that were supposed to influence. Modeling was done by nonparametric geographically weighted regression methods with truncated spline approach. This method was chosen because spline method is a flexible method, these models tend to look for its own estimation. In this modeling, there were point knots, the point that showed the changes of data. The selection of the optimum point knots was done by selecting the most minimun value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the research, 6 variables were declared to affect the level of unemployment in eastern Java. They were the percentage of population that is educated above high school, the rate of economic growth, the population density, the investment ratio of total labor force, the regional minimum wage and the ratio of the number of big industry and medium scale industry from the work force. The nonparametric geographically weighted regression models with truncated spline approach had a coefficient of determination 98.95% and the value of MSE equal to 0.0047.

Keywords: East Java, nonparametric geographically weighted regression, spatial, spline approach, unemployed rate

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Authors: Worrapol Koranuntachai, Tonkid Chantrasmi, Udomkiat Nontakaew

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Medical latex gloves are made from the latex compound in production lines. Latex dipping is considered one of the most important processes that directly affect the final product quality. In a continuous production line, a chain conveyor carries the formers through the process and partially submerges them into an open channel flow in a latex dipping tank. In general, the conveyor speed is determined by the desired production capacity, and the latex-dipping tank can then be designed accordingly. It is important to understand the flow behavior in the dipping tank in order to achieve high quality in the process. In this work, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to simulate the flow past an array of formers in a simplified latex dipping process. The computational results showed both the flow structure and the vortex generation between two formers. The maximum shear stress over the surface of the formers was used as the quality metric of the latex-dipping process when adjusting operation parameters.

Keywords: medical latex gloves, latex dipping, dipping tank, computational fluid dynamics

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Authors: B. Vadiraj, S. N. Omkar, B. Kapil Bharadwaj, Yash Vardhan Gupta

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During manned exploration of space, missions will require astronaut crewmembers to perform Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) for a variety of tasks. These EVAs take place after long periods of operations in space, and in and around unique vehicles, space structures and systems. Considering the remoteness and time spans in which these vehicles will operate, EVA system operations should utilize common worksites, tools and procedures as much as possible to increase the efficiency of training and proficiency in operations. All of the preparations need to be carried out based on studies of astronaut motions. Until now, development and training activities associated with the planned EVAs in Russian and U.S. space programs have relied almost exclusively on physical simulators. These experimental tests are expensive and time consuming. During the past few years a strong increase has been observed in the use of computer simulations due to the fast developments in computer hardware and simulation software. Based on this idea, an effort to develop a computational simulation system to model human dynamic motion for EVA is initiated. This study focuses on the simulation of an astronaut moving the orbital replaceable units into the worksites or removing them from the worksites. Our physics-based methodology helps fill the gap in quantitative analysis of astronaut EVA by providing a multisegment human arm model. Simulation work described in the study improves on the realism of previous efforts, incorporating joint stops to account for the physiological limits of range of motion. To demonstrate the utility of this approach human arm model is simulated virtually using ADAMS/LifeMOD® software. Kinematic mechanism for the astronaut’s task is studied from joint angles and torques. Simulation results obtained is validated with numerical simulation based on the principles of Newton-Euler method. Torques determined using mathematical model are compared among the subjects to know the grace and consistency of the task performed. We conclude that due to uncertain nature of exploration-class EVA, a virtual model developed using multibody dynamics approach offers significant advantages over traditional human modeling approaches.

Keywords: extra vehicular activity, biomechanics, inverse kinematics, human body modeling

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD

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Authors: Sunitha Thappa

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Business environment is a set of complex interdependent dimensions that corporates have to always be vigil in identifying the influential waves. Over the year business environment has evolved into a basket of uncertainties. Every organization strives to counter this dynamic nature of business environment by recurrently evaluating the primary and support activities of its value chain. This has led to companies redesigning their business models, reinvent business processes and operating procedure on unremitting basis. A few specific issues that are placed before the present day managers are breaking down the functional interpretation of any challenge that organizations confronts, reduction in organizational hierarchy and tackling the components of the value chain to retain their competitive advantage. It is how effectively managers detect the changes and swiftly reorient themselves to these changes that define their success or failure. Given the complexity of decision making in this dynamic environment, two important question placed before the B-schools of today. Firstly, are they grooming and nurturing managerial talent proficient enough to thrive in this multifaceted business environment? Secondly, are the management graduates walking through their portals, able to view challenges from a cross-functional perspective with emphasis to customer and process rather than hierarchy and functions. This paper focuses on the need for a process oriented approach to management education.

Keywords: management education, pedagogy, functional, process

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Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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Authors: Mostafa Aminzadeh, Min Deng

Abstract:

Modeling loss data is an important part of actuarial science. Actuaries use models to predict future losses and manage financial risk, which can be beneficial for marketing purposes. In the insurance industry, small claims happen frequently while large claims are rare. Traditional distributions such as Normal, Exponential, and inverse-Gaussian are not suitable for describing insurance data, which often show skewness and fat tails. Several authors have studied classical and Bayesian inference for parameters of composite distributions, such as Exponential-Pareto, Weibull-Pareto, and Inverse Gamma-Pareto. These models separate small to moderate losses from large losses using a threshold parameter. This research introduces a computational approach using a nonlinear regression model for loss data that relies on multiple predictors. Simulation studies were conducted to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimation method. The simulations confirmed that the proposed method provides precise estimates for regression parameters. It's important to note that this approach can be applied to datasets if goodness-of-fit tests confirm that the composite distribution under study fits the data well. To demonstrate the computations, a real data set from the insurance industry is analyzed. A Mathematica code uses the Fisher information algorithm as an iteration method to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of regression parameters.

Keywords: maximum likelihood estimation, fisher scoring method, non-linear regression models, composite distributions

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Authors: M. G. Shilina

Abstract:

The prospects for political and economic development of the Eurasian space are currently discussed at both governmental and expert levels. New concepts actively proposed by the Eurasian governments require the analysis and search for effective implementation options. In the paper, an attempt to identify effective solutions to the problems surrounding the current economic integration of the Eurasian states is given on the basis of an interdisciplinary, comprehensive, structured analysis. The phenomenon is considered through the prism of the international law, world economy and politics, combined with the study of existing intergovernmental practice. The modeling method was taken as the basis for the research and is supplemented by legal and empirical methods. The detailed multi-level model of practical construction the 'Great Eurasia' (the GE) concept is proposed, the option for building a phased interaction in Eurasia is given through the prism of construction by the Eurasian Economic Union (the EAEU) as the main tool. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (the SCO) is seen as the most promising element of the model. The SCO is capable of streamlining the formation of the GE and determine the transformation of Eurasia into a common economic space. Effective development of the economic integration between Eurasian states on the framework of the SCO is optimal. The SCO+ could be used as a platform for integration-integration processes formation. The creation of stable financial ties could become the basis for the possible formation of an expanded transregional integration platform. The paper concludes that the implementation of the proposed model could entail a gradual economic rapprochement of Eurasia and beyond.

Keywords: economic integration, The Eurasian Economic Union, The European Union, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the silk road economic belt

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Authors: Davoud Maleki, Neda Zamani

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The purpose of this research was to investigate the factors affecting the organizational pathology of knowledge production in Islamic Azad University. The present research method is quantitative. It was a survey type and applied research in terms of its purpose. The statistical population of the present study included all full-time professors of the Islamic Azad Universities in the North, South, East, West and Central regions, including the Islamic Azad Universities of Sari, Isfahan, Kerman, Khorramabad and Shiraz, and their total number was 1389, based on the Cochran formula. 305 people were selected as the sample size by random sampling method. The research tool was a researcher-made questionnaire, whose validity was calculated from the professors' point of view and its reliability was calculated based on Cronbach's alpha and was 0.89. For data analysis, confirmatory factor analysis and structural equations were used with Smart3 Pls software. The findings showed that the variables of strategy, structure and process directly and the variable of strategy explained indirectly through the variables of structure and process 96.8% of the pathology of knowledge production. Also, structure 49.6% and process variable 58.4% explain the pathology of knowledge production. 38% of knowledge production changes related to the direct effect of strategy, 39% of knowledge production changes Related to the effect of structure, 32% of the changes in knowledge production are related to the direct effect of the process, 70.5% of the changes related to the structure are related to the direct effect of the strategy, 36.5% of the changes related to the process are related to the direct effect of the strategy, 46.3 Percentage of process variable changes It is related to the direct effect of the structure. According to the obtained results, it can be acknowledged that the pathology model of knowledge production in Islamic Azad University can be used as an effective model in the pathology of knowledge production and can improve the scientific level of knowledge producers.

Keywords: pathology of knowledge production, strategic issues, process issues, Islamic Azad University

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Authors: Edgar Sar

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For more than a decade, secularism’s compatibility with religion has been called into question. Particularly, secular states’ exclusionary practices were raised to prove that secularism is not necessary for democracy. Meanwhile, with the debut of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002, Turkish state’s approach to religion has gradually changed. It is argued in that presentation that this change has led Turkey to a process of de-secularization, which refers to a considerable regress in state’s inclusionary and pluralist credentials. In this regard, this study both reflects on the relationship between secularism and democracy within the context of Turkish experience and analyses the consequences of the process of de-secularization of state in Turkey. To analyze Turkish state’s changing approach to religion and measure the de-secularization of the state, the connection between state and religion will be examined in three levels: ends, institutions, and law and policies. The presentation will indicate that Turkish state’s connection with religion in all three levels significantly weakened its secular credentials, which at the same time risked state’s commitment to neutrality, freedom of conscience and equality. In this regard, the change in Turkish state’s approach to religion throughout the 2000s, which this study refers to as the process of the de-secularization of the state, also brought about a process of de-democratization for Turkey.

Keywords: AKP, political inclusion, secularism, Turkey

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Authors: Akano Benedict Ubawuike

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This study investigated the effects of pre-laboratory discussion on physics students’ acquisition of science process skills. The study design was quasi-experimental and purposive sampling technique was applied in selecting two schools in Kontagora Town for the research based on the availability of a good physics laboratory. Intact classes already grouped by the school for the sake of small laboratory space and equipment, comprising Thirty (30) students, 15 for experimental group in School A and 15 for control in school B were the subjects for the research. The instrument used for data collection was the lesson prepared for pre – practical discussion and researcher made Science Process Skill Test (SPST ) and two (2) research questions, and two (2) research hypotheses were developed to guide the study. The data collected were analyzed using means and t-Test statistics at 0.05 level of significance. The study revealed that pre-laboratory discussion was found to be more efficacious in enhancing students’ acquisition of science process skills. It also revealed that gender, had no significant effect on students’ acquisition of science process skills. Based on the findings, it was recommended among others that teachers should encourage students to develop interest in practical activities by engaging them in pre-laboratory discussion and providing instructional materials that will challenge them to be actively involved during practical lessons. It is also recommended that Ministries of Education and professional organizations like Science Teachers' Association of Nigeria (STAN) should organize workshops, seminars and conferences for physics teachers and Physics concepts should be taught with practical activity so that the students will do science instead of learning about science.

Keywords: physics, laboratory, discussion, students, acquisition, science process skills

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Authors: Markou Vasiliki, Serdaris Panagiotis

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The consumer behavior and decision-making process of consumers is a process that is affected by the factor of uncertainty. The onslaught of the Covid 19 pandemic has changed the consumer decision-making process in many ways. This change can be seen both in the buying process (how and where they shop) but also in the types of goods and services they are looking for. In addition, due to the mainly economic uncertainty that came from this event, but also the effects on both society and the economy in general, new consumer behaviors were created. Traditional forms of shopping are no longer a primary choice, consumers have turned to digital channels such as e-commerce and social media to fulfill needs. The purpose of this particular article is to examine how much the consumer's decision-making process has been affected after the pandemic and if consumer behavior has changed. An online survey was conducted to examine the change in decision making. Essentially, the demographic factors that influence the decision-making process were examined, as well as the social and economic factors. The research is divided into two parts. The first part included a literature review of the research that has been carried out to identify the factors, and the second part where the empirical investigation was carried out using a questionnaire and was done electronically with the help of Google Forms. The questionnaire was divided into several sections. They included questions about consumer behavior, but mainly about how they make decisions today, whether those decisions have changed due to the pandemic, and whether those changes are permanent. Also, for decision-making, goods were divided into essential products, high-tech products, transactions with the state and others. Αbout 500 consumers aged between 18 and 75 participated in the research. The data was processed with both descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results showed that the consumer behavior and decision-making process has changed. Now consumers widely use the internet for shopping, consumer behaviors and consumer patterns have changed. Social and economic factors play an important role. Income, gender and other factors were found to be statistically significant. In addition, it is worth noting that the percentage who made purchases during the pandemic through the internet for the first time was remarkable and related to age. Essentially, the arrival of the pandemic caused uncertainty for individuals, mainly financial, and this affected the decision-making process. In addition, shopping through the internet is now the first choice, especially among young people, and it seems that it is about to become established.

Keywords: consumer behavior, decision making, COVID-19, Greece, behavior change

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Authors: V. Prasannavenkadesan, A. Elango, S. Chockalingam

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During machining process, chatter is an unavoidable phenomenon. Boring bars possess the cantilever shape and due to this, it is subjected to chatter. The adverse effect of chatter includes the increase in temperature which will leads to excess tool wear. To overcome these problems, in this investigation, Cartridge brass (Cu – 70% and Zn – 30%) is passively fixed on the boring bar and also clearance is provided in order to reduce the displacement, tool wear and cutting temperature. A conventional all geared lathe is attached with vibrometer and pyrometer is used to measure the displacement and temperature. The influence of input parameters such as cutting speed, depth of cut and clearance on temperature, tool wear and displacement are investigated for various cutting conditions. From the result, the optimum conditions to obtain better damping in boring process for chatter reduction is identified.

Keywords: boring, chatter, mass damping, passive damping

Procedia PDF Downloads 350