Search results for: logit regression model and food security

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

Abstract:

Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Saeid Haghjoo, Ebrahim Reyhani, Fahimeh Kolahdouz

Abstract:

The present study aimed to evaluate the understanding of the students in Tehran universities (Iran) about the numerical representation of the average rate of change based on the Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes (SOLO). In the present descriptive-survey research, the statistical population included undergraduate students (basic sciences and engineering) in the universities of Tehran. The samples were 604 students selected by random multi-stage clustering. The measurement tool was a task whose face and content validity was confirmed by math and mathematics education professors. Using Cronbach's Alpha criterion, the reliability coefficient of the task was obtained 0.95, which verified its reliability. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and inferential statistics (chi-squared and independent t-tests) under SPSS-24 software. According to the SOLO model in the prestructural, unistructural, and multistructural levels, basic science students had a higher percentage of understanding than that of engineering students, although the outcome was inverse at the relational level. However, there was no significant difference in the average understanding of both groups. The results indicated that students failed to have a proper understanding of the numerical representation of the average rate of change, in addition to missconceptions when using physics formulas in solving the problem. In addition, multiple solutions were derived along with their dominant methods during the qualitative analysis. The current research proposed to focus on the context problems with approximate calculations and numerical representation, using software and connection common relations between math and physics in the teaching process of teachers and professors.

Keywords: average rate of change, context problems, derivative, numerical representation, SOLO taxonomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: S. Essa, H. Safar, R. Raghupathy

Abstract:

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) continues to be a source of severe complications to immunologically immature and immune-compromised hosts. Effective CMV vaccine that diminishes CMV disease in transplant patients and avoids congenital infection remains of high importance as no approved vaccines exist. Though the exact links of defense mechanisms are unidentified, viral-specific antibodies and Th1/Th2 cytokine responses have been involved in controlling viral infections. CMV envelope glycoprotein B (UL55/gB), the matrix proteins (UL83/pp65, UL99/pp28, UL32/pp150), and the assembly protein UL80a/pp38 are known to be targets of antiviral immune responses. In this study, mice were immunized with five HCMV antigens (UL32/pp150, UL80a/pp38, UL99/pp28, and UL83/pp65), and serum samples were collected and evaluated for eliciting viral-specific antibody responses. Moreover, Splenocytes were collected, stimulated, and assessed for cytokine responses. The results demonstrated a CMV-antigen-specific antibody response to pp38 and pp65 (E/C >2.0). The highest titers were detected with pp38 (average E/C 16.275) followed by pp65 (average E/C 7.72). Compared to control cells, splenocytes from PP38 antigen immunized mice gave a significantly higher concentration of GM-CSF, IFN-γ, IL-2 IL-4, IL-5, and IL-17A (P<0.05). Also, splenocytes from pp65 antigen immunized mice resulted in a significantly higher concentration of GM-CSF, IFN-γ, IL-2 IL-4, IL-10, IL-12, IL-17A, and TNF- α. The designation of target CMV peptides by identifying viral-specific antibodies and cytokine responses is vital for understanding the protective immune mechanisms during CMV infection and identifying appropriate viral antigens to develop novel vaccines.

Keywords: hepatitis C virus, peripheral blood mononuclear cells, neutrophils, cytokines

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Emad A. S. Abu-Ayyash

Abstract:

Cohesive devices, the linguistic tools that are usually employed to hold the different parts of the text together, have been the focus of a significant number of discourse analysis studies. These linguistic tools have grabbed the attention of researchers since the inception of the first and most comprehensive model of cohesion in 1976. However, it was noticed that some cohesive devices (e.g., endophoric reference, conjunctions, ellipsis, substitution, and lexical ties) – being thought of as more popular than others (e.g., exophoric reference) – were over-researched. The present paper explores the usage of two cohesive devices that have been evidently almost absent from discourse analysis studies. These cohesive devices are exophoric and homophoric references, the linguistic items that can be interpreted in terms of the physical and cultural contexts of discourse. The significance of the current paper, therefore, stems from the fact that it attempts to fill a gap in the research conducted so far on cohesive devices. This study provides an explanation of the concepts of the cohesive devices that have been employed in a plethora of research on cohesion and elucidates the relevant context-related concepts. The paper also identifies the gap in cohesive devices research. Exophora and homophora, the least visited cohesive devices in previous studies, were qualitatively and quantitatively explored in six opinion articles, four produced by eight postgraduate English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students in a university in the United Arab Emirates and two by professional NS writers in the Independent and the Guardian. The six pieces were about the United Kingdom Independent Party (UKIP) leader’s call to ban the burqa in the UK and were analysed vis-a-vis the employment and function of homophora and exophora. The study found that both EFL students and native speakers employed exophora and homophora considerably in their writing to serve a variety of functions, including building assumptions, supporting main ideas, and involving the readers among others.

Keywords: cohesive devices, context, culture, exophoric reference, homophoric reference

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Linda Boussaid, Farid Brahim Belaribi

Abstract:

The physico-chemical properties of liquid materials in the industrial field, in general, and in that of the chemical industries, in particular, constitutes a prerequisite for the design of equipment, for the resolution of specific problems (related to the techniques of purification and separation, at risk in the transport of certain materials, etc.) and, therefore, at the production stage. Chloroalkanes, ethers constitute three chemical families having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. For example, these compounds are used in various applications in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. In addition, they contribute to the particular thermodynamic behavior (deviation from ideality, association, etc.) of certain mixtures which constitute a severe test for predictive theoretical models. Finally, due to the degradation of the environment in the world, a renewed interest is observed for ethers, because some of their physicochemical properties could contribute to lower pollution (ethers would be used as additives in aqueous fuels.). This work is a thermodynamic, experimental and theoretical study of the volumetric properties of liquid binary systems formed from compounds belonging to the chemical families of chloroalkanes, ethers, having an industrial, theoretical and environmental interest. Experimental determination of the densities and excess volumes of the systems studied, at different temperatures in the interval [278.15-333.15] K and at atmospheric pressure, using an AntonPaar vibrating tube densitometer of the DMA5000 type. This contribution of experimental data, on the volumetric properties of the binary liquid mixtures of 1,2-dichloroethane with an ether, supplemented by an application of the theoretical model of Prigogine-Flory-Patterson PFP, will probably contribute to the enrichment of the thermodynamic database and the further development of the theory of Flory in its Prigogine-Flory-Patterson (PFP) version, for a better understanding of the thermodynamic behavior of these liquid binary mixtures

Keywords: prigogine-flory-patterson (pfp), propriétés volumétrique , volume d’excés, ethers

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Rinat Arbel-Goren, Joel Stavans

Abstract:

Cell-to-cell variations in transcript or protein abundance, called noise, may give rise to phenotypic variability between isogenic cells, enhancing the probability of survival under stress conditions. These variations may be introduced by post-transcriptional regulatory processes such as non-coding, small RNAs stoichiometric degradation of target transcripts in bacteria. We study the iron homeostasis network in Escherichia coli, in which the RyhB small RNA regulates the expression of various targets as a model system. Using fluorescence reporter genes to detect protein levels and single-molecule fluorescence in situ hybridization to monitor transcripts levels in individual cells, allows us to compare noise at both transcript and protein levels. The experimental results and computer simulations show that extrinsic noise buffers through a feed-forward loop configuration the increase in variability introduced at the transcript level by iron deprivation, illuminating the important role that extrinsic noise plays during stress. Surprisingly, extrinsic noise also decouples of fluctuations of two different targets, in spite of RyhB being a common upstream factor degrading both. Thus, phenotypic variability increases under stress conditions by the decoupling of target fluctuations in the same cell rather than by increasing the noise of each. We also present preliminary results on the adaptation of cells to prolonged iron deprivation in order to shed light on the evolutionary role of post-transcriptional downregulation by small RNAs.

Keywords: cell-to-cell variability, Escherichia coli, noise, single-molecule fluorescence in situ hybridization (smFISH), transcript

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Svetlana Guryeva, Inna Kornienko, Elena Petersen

Abstract:

At present, translational medicine is a rapidly developing branch of biomedicine. The main idea of translational medicine is a practical application of fundamental research. One of the possible applications for translational medicine is researching therapies that improve human age-related organism condition. To fill the gap between experiments and clinical practice, it is necessary to create the standardized system for the investigation of different effects on cellular aging models. In this study, primary human fibroblasts derived from patients of different ages were used as a cellular aging model. The senescence-associated β-galactosidase activity, lipofuscin, γ-H2AX, the reactive oxygen species level, and cell death markers (annexin V/propidium iodide) were used as biomarkers of the cell functional state. The effects of damaging exposures (oxidative stress and heat shock), potential positive factors (metformin and acetaminophen), and their combinations were investigated using the described biomarkers. Oxidative stress and heat shock caused the increase in the levels of all biomarkers, and only the cells from young patients partly coped with stress 3 days after the exposures. Metformin improved the state of pretreatment cells from young and old patients. The acetaminophen did not show significant changes in the biomarker levels compare to the action of metformin. This study proved the opportunity to develop a standardized screening system based on biomarkers of the cell functional state to identify potential positive or negative effects of some physical and chemical exposures. Moreover, such a system can be useful for the aims of regenerative medicine to determine the effect of cell pretreatment before transplantation.

Keywords: biomarkers, primary fibroblasts, regenerative medicine, senescence, test system, translational medicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Rod Davis, Sara Saminfar

Abstract:

Earthquakes can induce dynamic earth pressures on retaining walls, which are in addition to the static earth pressures. This raises questions about how to effectively combine the seismic lateral earth pressure with other loads on buildings, including static lateral earth pressure. When basement walls retain soil with differing exterior grades on opposite sides, the seismic increment of active earth pressure should be considered. Additionally, buildings situated on sloped sites with stepped retention may experience unique dynamic effects due to soil-structure interactions, potentially amplifying the lateral pressures exerted on the retaining walls and influencing the building's response during seismic events. To account for the dynamic effects of the retained soil on the building's responses, it is essential to interconnect the building structure with the surrounding soil to facilitate their interaction as the embedded structure and the surrounding soil move together during an earthquake. Consequently, a finite element model of the building is developed, with the rigid retaining walls and restrained to the floor diaphragms. This paper aims to explore the dynamic effects of retained soil on the lateral stability of buildings and the sensitivity of the building's responses to differences in the retained heights on opposite sides of the building basement. Furthermore, the results are compared with those from a sloped site to evaluate the impact of stepped retention on dynamic soil pressure. These findings will help establish a minimum threshold for differences in retained heights on opposite sides of a building that necessitates the inclusion of dynamic soil pressure in the building's lateral stability analysis.

Keywords: dynamic earth pressures, soil-structure interaction, stepped retention, building retention

Procedia PDF Downloads 8

Authors: Wei Zhang, Chye Kiang Heng, John Chye Fung

Abstract:

Background: The world’s demographics is currently undergoing the largest wave of both rapid ageing and dramatic urbanisation in human history. As one of the most rapidly ageing countries, Singapore will see about one in four residents aged 65 years and above by 2030 in its high-rise and high-density urban environment. Research questions: To support urban seniors ageing in place and interdependence among senior residents and their informal caregivers, this study argues a community-based care model with bottom-up mutual help networks and asks how neighbourhood built-environment influences the formulation and facilitation of bottom-up mutual help networks in Singapore. Methods: Two public housing communities with different physical environment and rich age-friendly neighbourhood initiatives were chosen as the case studies. The categories, participants and places of bottom-up mutual help activities will be obtained via field observation, non-structural interviews of participants, service providers and managers of care facilities, and documents. Mapping and content analysis will be used to explore the influences of neighbourhood built-environment on the formulation and facilitation of bottom-up mutual help networks. Results and conclusions: The results showed that neighbourhood design, place programming, and place governance have a confluence on the bottom-up mutual help networks for senior residents. Significance: The outcomes of this study will provide fresh evidence for paradigm shifts of community-based care for the elderly and neighbourhood planning. In addition, the research findings will shed light on meaningful implications of urban planners and policy makers as they tackle with the issues arising from the ageing society.

Keywords: Built environment, Mutual help, Neighbourhood, Senior residents, Singapore

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: M. Wangai

Abstract:

Following the promulgation of a new Constitution of Kenya in 2010, wide-ranging proposals for reform of the criminal justice system have been made. Proposed measures include a clear and separate system of dealing with juvenile offenders with a greater focus on rehabilitation and reintegration. As part of a broader constitutional transition, this article considers the contribution of restorative justice to reforming the youth justice system. The paper analyses Kenya’s juvenile justice legal framework measured against current international trends in youth justice. It identifies the first post-independence juvenile justice system as a remnant of the colonial period and notes that the post-2001 system is a marked improvement. More recent legal and institutional efforts to incorporate restorative justice are also examined. The paper advocates further development of the juvenile justice system by mainstreaming of restorative justice principles through national level legislative amendments. International and comparative perspectives are used to inform a diversion centered model of restorative justice. In addition, a case is made for the use of existing forms of alternative dispute resolution. Conscious of a tense political climate, the paper also proposes strategies to address challenges posed by a punitive penal environment, chiefly the linking of restorative justice to wider democratic goals and community spirit. The article concludes that restorative justice led juvenile justice reform will contribute to better treatment of young offenders under the criminal justice system and has the potential to set a new precedent for fair, sustainable and effective justice. Further, as part of far-reaching criminal justice reform, the proposed efforts may strengthen democratic progress in Kenya’s ensuing phase of political transition.

Keywords: constitutional transition, criminal justice, restorative justice, young offenders

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Ozan Yavuz Baytemir, Ender Cigeroglu, Gokhan Osman Ozgen

Abstract:

Vibration is an important issue in the design of various components of aerospace, marine and vehicular applications. In order not to lose the components’ function and operational performance, vibration isolation design involving the optimum isolator properties selection and isolator positioning processes appear to be a critical study. Knowing the growing need for the vibration isolation system design, this paper aims to present two types of software capable of implementing modal analysis, response analysis for both random and harmonic types of excitations, static deflection analysis, Monte Carlo simulations in addition to study of parameter and location optimization for different types of isolation problem scenarios. Investigating the literature, there is no such study developing a software-based tool that is capable of implementing all those analysis, simulation and optimization studies in one platform simultaneously. In this paper, the theoretical system model is generated for a 6-DOF rigid body. The vibration isolation system of any mechanical structure is able to be optimized using hybrid method involving both global search and gradient-based methods. Defining the optimization design variables, different types of optimization scenarios are listed in detail. Being aware of the need for a user friendly vibration isolation problem solver, two types of graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are prepared and verified using a commercial finite element analysis program, Ansys Workbench 14.0. Using the analysis and optimization capabilities of those GUIs, a real application used in an air-platform is also presented as a case study at the end of the paper.

Keywords: hybrid optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, multi-degree-of-freedom system, parameter optimization, location optimization, passive vibration isolation analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 564

Authors: Selvam M., Vadthya Poornachandar, Surender Singh

Abstract:

These Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) aggregates are generally dumped in the open area after the demolition of Asphalt Pavements. The utilization of RAP aggregates in cement concrete pavements may provide several socio-economic-environmental benefits and could embrace the circular economy. The cross recycling of RAP aggregates in the concrete pavement could reduce the consumption of virgin aggregates and saves the fertile land. However, the structural, as well as functional properties of RAP-concrete could be significantly lower than the conventional Pavement Quality Control (PQC) pavements. This warrants judicious selection of RAP fraction (coarse and fine aggregates) along with the accurate proportion of the same for PQC highways. Also, the selection of the RAP fraction and its proportion shall not be solely based on the mechanical properties of RAP-concrete specimens but also governed by the structural and functional behavior of the pavement system. In this study, an effort has been made to predict the optimum RAP fraction and its corresponding proportion for cement concrete pavements by considering the low-volume and high-volume roads. Initially, the effect of inclusions of RAP on the fresh and mechanical properties of concrete pavement mixes is mapped through an extensive literature survey. Almost all the studies available to date are considered for this study. Generally, Indian Roads Congress (IRC) methods are the most widely used design method in India for the analysis of concrete pavements, and the same has been considered for this study. Subsequently, fatigue damage analysis is performed to evaluate the required safe thickness of pavement slab for different fractions of RAP (coarse RAP). Consequently, the performance of RAP-concrete is predicted by employing the AASHTO-1993 model for the following distresses conditions: faulting, cracking, and smoothness. The performance prediction and total cost analysis of RAP aggregates depict that the optimum proportions of coarse RAP aggregates in the PQC mix are 35% and 50% for high volume and low volume roads, respectively.

Keywords: concrete pavement, RAP aggregate, performance prediction, pavement design

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Hamidreza Joudaki, Yousefali Ziari

Abstract:

The appearance of city and urbanism is one of the important processes which have affected social communities. Being industrialized urbanism developed along with each other in the history. In addition, they have had simple relationship for more than six thousand years, that is, from the appearance of the first cities. In 18th century by coming out of industrial capitalism, progressive development took place in urbanism in the world. In Iran, the city of each region made its decision by itself and the capital of region (downtown) was the only central part and also the regional city without any hierarchy, controlled its realm. However, this method of ruling during these three decays, because of changing in political, social and economic issues that have caused changes in rural and urban relationship. Moreover, it has changed the variety of performance of cities and systematic urban network in Iran. Today, urban system has very vast imbalanced apace and performance. In Isfahan, the trend of urbanism is like the other part of Iran and systematic urban hierarchy is not suitable and normal. This article is a quantitative and analytical. The statistical communities are Isfahan Province cities and the changes in urban network and its hierarchy during the period of fifty years (1956 -2006) has been surveyed. In addition, those data have been analyzed by model of Rank and size and Entropy index. In this article Iran cities and also the factor of entropy of primate city and urban hierarchy of Isfahan Province have been introduced. Urban residents of this Province have been reached from 55 percent to 83% (2006). As we see the analytical data reflects that there is mismatching and imbalance between cities. Because the entropy index was.91 in 1956.And it decreased to.63 in 2006. Isfahan city is the primate city in the whole of these periods. Moreover, the second and the third cities have population gap with regard to the other cities and finally, they do not follow the system of rank-size.

Keywords: urban network, urban hierarchy, primate city, Isfahan province, urbanism, first cities

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: M. R. Ahmad, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, N. A. Rahmat

Abstract:

Plug-in Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (PHEV) has gained immense popularity in recent years. PHEV offers numerous advantages compared to the conventional internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Millions of PHEVs are estimated to be on the road in the USA by 2020. Uncoordinated PHEV charging is believed to cause severe impacts to the power grid; i.e. feeders, lines and transformers overload and voltage drop. Nevertheless, improper PHEV data model used in such studies may cause the findings of their works is in appropriated. Although smart charging is more attractive to researchers in recent years, its implementation is not yet attainable on the street due to its requirement for physical infrastructure readiness and technology advancement. As the first step, it is finest to study the impact of charging PHEV based on real vehicle travel data from National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and at present charging rate. Due to the lack of charging station on the street at the moment, charging PHEV at home is the best option and has been considered in this work. This paper proposed a technique that comprehensively presents the impact of charging PHEV on power system networks considering huge numbers of PHEV samples with its traveling data pattern. Vehicles Charging Load Profile (VCLP) is developed and implemented in IEEE 30-bus test system that represents a portion of American Electric Power System (Midwestern US). Normalization technique is used to correspond to real time loads at all buses. Results from the study indicated that charging PHEV using opportunity charging will have significant impacts on power system networks, especially whereas bigger battery capacity (kWh) is used as well as for higher penetration level.

Keywords: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, transportation electrification, impact of charging PHEV, electricity demand profile, load profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Meha Singla, Shankhadeep Chaudhuri, Yadunandan Batchu

Abstract:

Rental Housing is a more cost effective and flexible housing solution for the low income families than home-ownership. While India is undergoing a new industrial metamorphosis with multiple government initiatives that emphasise on the growth of manufacturing sector through policy frameworks and corridor development proposals, there is going to be a huge influx of low-income working population to the upcoming urban centres. As per stats, about 70 per cent of the housing demand at these centres fall into the affordable segment. And in the midst of this rapid urbanisation and huge immigration of young population, there is a lack of proper rental housing framework in the country. A large number of immigrants will be unable to support home-ownership thereby leading to proliferation of slums in urban centres. As a result, there is a dire need for immediate articulation of a comprehensive rental housing policy and affordable housing initiatives. In this paper, CommonFloor attempts to analyse successful rental housing case studies of the world followed by establishing a correlation between the gap in urban rental housing stock and the per capita income statistics to devise rental housing affordability specific to major Indian cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai). Further, with the corroboration of market price trends, it will try to locate feasible micro-markets for immediate rental housing action. Final research findings will provide key data points thereby helping to design the approach for efficient utilisation of unsold residential inventory in the country in order to compensate the rental housing deficiency. This data set is believed to express viable model(s) of the rental housing approach for the government and private participants.

Keywords: housing prices, migration of population, real estate, rental housing, rental markets, residential property market, urbanisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Puneet Kumar, Jonnalagadda Srinivas

Abstract:

The authors report here vibration and buckling analysis of functionally graded carbon nanotube-polymer composite (FG-CNTPC) beams under hygro-thermo-mechanical environments using higher order shear deformation theory. The material properties of CNT and polymer matrix are often affected by temperature and moisture content. A micromechanical model with agglomeration effect is employed to compute the elastic, thermal and moisture properties of the composite beam. The governing differential equation of FG-CNTRPC beam is developed using higher-order shear deformation theory to account shear deformation effects. The elastic, thermal and hygroscopic strain terms are derived from variational principles. Moreover, thermal and hygroscopic loads are determined by considering uniform, linear and sinusoidal variation of temperature and moisture content through the thickness. Differential equations of motion are formulated as an eigenvalue problem using appropriate displacement fields and solved by using finite element modeling. The obtained results of natural frequencies and critical buckling loads show a good agreement with published data. The numerical illustrations elaborate the dynamic as well as buckling behavior under uniaxial load for different environmental conditions, boundary conditions and volume fraction distribution profile, beam slenderness ratio. Further, comparisons are shown at different boundary conditions, temperatures, degree of moisture content, volume fraction as well as agglomeration of CNTs, slenderness ratio of beam for different shear deformation theories.

Keywords: hygrothermal effect, free vibration, buckling load, agglomeration

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Sarinra Thongmee, Adithep Mingsuan, Chanyapak Polkhet, Supattra Wongsuk, Krittaphon Prakobsaeng

Abstract:

The purposes of this research and development was to develop and evaluation of clinical nursing practice guideline (CNPG) for the prevention of infection during intubation in patient withsuspected or confirmedCOVID-19 patient. This study was developed by using the evidence based practice model of Soukup (2000) as a conceptual framework. The study consisted of 4 steps: 1) situational analysis of intubation service in patients with confirmed COVID-19, 2) development the CNPG, 3) apply the NPG to trial, and 4) evaluation of the NPG. Thesample consisted of 52 nurse anesthetists and 25 infected or suspected COVID-19 patients. The research instrument consisted of 1) CNPG, 2) the nurses anesthetist opinion questionnaire to the guideline, 3) the evaluation practice form, and 4) the nurse anesthetist knowledge test on nursing care of patients infected with COVID-19. Data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, and Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test. The results found that this developed NPG consists of 4 sections: 1) NPG for Preventing Airborne Infection Prevention2) preparation of anesthetic and intubation equipments 3) roles and duties of the intubation team 4) guidelines for intubation in suspected or confirmed COVID-19patients. The result found that 1) provider: using NPG in providers revealed that nurse anesthetist had higher mean of knowledge scores than before using NPG statistically significant at the 0.05 level (p<0.01) and able to follow the NPG 100% in all activities. The anesthetic team was not infected with COVID-19from intubation outside operating room.2) Client: the patient was safe, no complications from intubation. Summary CNPG to prevent infection in intubation of suspected or confirmedCOVID-19 patient was appropriate and applicable to practice.

Keywords: nursing practice guideline, prevention of infection, endotracheal intubation, COVID-19

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Aniekan Peter, ECS Naidu, Edidiong Akang, U. Offor, R. Kalhapure, A. A. Chuturgoon, T. Govender, O. O. Azu

Abstract:

Introduction: Nano-drugs are novel innovations in the management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic, especially resistant strains of the virus in their sanctuary sites: testis and the brain. There are safety concerns to be addressed to achieve the full potential of this new drug delivery system. Aim of study: Our study was designed to investigate toxicity profile of Tenofovir Nanoparticle (TDF-N) synthesized by University of Kwazulu-Natal (UKZN) Nano-team for prevention and treatment of HIV infection. Methodology: Ten adult male Sprague-Dawley rats maintained at the Animal House of the Biomedical Resources Unit UKZN were used for the study. The animals were weighed and divided into two groups of 5 animal each. Control animals (A) were administered with normal saline. Therapeutic dose (4.3 mg/kg) of TDF-N was administered to group B. At the end of four weeks, animals were weighed and sacrificed. Liver and kidney were removed fixed in formal saline, processed and stained using H/E, PAS and MT stains for light microscopy. Serum was obtained for renal function test (RFT), liver function test (LFT) and full blood count (FBC) using appropriate analysers. Cellular measurements were done using ImageJ and Leica software 2.0. Data were analysed using graph pad 6, values < 0.05 were significant. Results: We reported no histological alterations in the liver, kidney, FBC, LFT and RFT between the TDF-N animals and saline control. There were no significant differences in weight, organo-somatic index and histological measurements in the treatment group when compared with saline control. Conclusion/recommendations: TDF-N is not toxic to the liver, kidney and blood cells in our study. More studies using human subjects is recommended.

Keywords: tenofovir nanoparticles, liver, kidney, blood cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: G. Wojcik, J. Gindlhuber, A. Syarif, K. Hoetzenecker, P. Bohm, P. Vesely, V. Biasin, G. Kwapiszewska

Abstract:

Pulmonary fibrosis is a rare disease where uncontrolled wound healing processes damage the lung structure. Intensive changes within the extracellular matrix (ECM) and its interaction with fibroblasts have a major role in pulmonary fibrosis development. Among others, collagen is one of the main components of the ECM, and it is important for lung structure. In IPF, constant production of collagen by fibroblast, through TGFβ1-SMAD2/3 pathways, leads to an uncontrolled deposition of matrix and hence lung remodeling. Abnormal changes in lipid production, alterations in fatty acids (FAs) metabolism, enhanced oxidative stress, and lipid peroxidation in fibrotic lung and fibrotic fibroblasts have been reported; however, the interplay between the collagen and lipids is not yet established. One of the FAs influx regulators is Angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4), which inhibits lipoprotein lipase work, decreasing the availability of FAs. We hypothesized that altered lipid composition or availability could have the capability to influence the phenotype of different fibroblast populations in the lung and hence influence lung fibrosis. To prove our hypothesis, we aim to investigate lipids and their influence on human, animal, and in vitro levels. In the bleomycin model, treatment with the well-known metabolic drugs Rosiglitazone or Metformin significantly lower collagen production. Similar results were noticed in ANGPTL4 KO animals, where the KO of ANGPTL4 leads to an increase of FAs availability and lower collagen deposition after the bleomycin challenge. Currently, we study the treatment of different FAs on human lung para fibroblasts (hPF) isolated from donors. To understand the lipid composition, we are collecting human lung tissue from donors and pulmonary fibrosis patients for Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. In conclusion, our results suggest the lipid influence on collagen deposition during lung fibrosis, but further research needs to be conducted to understand the matter of this relationship.

Keywords: collagen, fibroblasts, lipidomics, lung, pulmonary fibrosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Behzad Behnia, Noah LaRussa-Trott

Abstract:

In recent years, fibers have been successfully used as an additive to reinforce asphalt concrete materials and to enhance the sustainability and resiliency of transportation infrastructure. Roads covered with fiber-reinforced asphalt concrete (FRAC) require less frequent maintenance and tend to have a longer lifespan. The present work investigates the application of sasobit-coated aramid fibers in asphalt pavements and employs machine learning to develop prediction models to evaluate the cracking performance of FRAC materials. For the experimental part of the study, the effects of several important parameters such as fiber content, fiber length, and testing temperature on fracture characteristics of FRAC mixtures were thoroughly investigated. Two mechanical performance tests, i.e., the disk-shaped compact tension [DC(T)] and indirect tensile [ID(T)] strength tests, as well as the non-destructive acoustic emission test, were utilized to experimentally measure the cracking behavior of the FRAC material in both macro and micro level, respectively. The experimental results were used to train the supervised machine learning approach in order to establish prediction models for fracture performance of the FRAC mixtures in the field. Experimental results demonstrated that adding fibers improved the overall fracture performance of asphalt concrete materials by increasing their fracture energy, tensile strength and lowering their 'embrittlement temperature'. FRAC mixtures containing long-size fibers exhibited better cracking performance than regular-size fiber mixtures. The developed prediction models of this study could be easily employed by pavement engineers in the assessment of the FRAC pavements.

Keywords: fiber reinforced asphalt concrete, machine learning, cracking performance tests, prediction model

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević, Lidija R. Jevrić

Abstract:

Prion is a protein substance whose certain form is considered as infectious agent. It is presumed to be the cause of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). The protein it is composed of, called PrP, can fold in structurally distinct ways. At least one of those 3D structures is transmissible to other prion proteins. Prions can be found in brain tissue of healthy people and have certain biological role. The structure of prions naturally occurring in healthy organisms is marked as PrPc, and the structure of infectious prion is labeled as PrPSc. PrPc may play a role in synaptic plasticity and neuronal development. Also, it may be required for neuronal myelin sheath maintenance, including a role in iron uptake and iron homeostasis. PrPSc can be considered as an environmental pollutant. The main aim of this study was to carry out the molecular modeling and calculation of molecular descriptors (lipophilicity, physico-chemical and topological descriptors) of structurally diverse compounds which can be considered as anti-prion agents. Molecular modeling was conducted applying ChemBio3D Ultra version 12.0 software. The obtained 3D models were subjected to energy minimization using molecular mechanics force field method (MM2). The cutoff for structure optimization was set at a gradient of 0.1 kcal/Åmol. The Austin Model 1 (AM-1) was used for full geometry optimization of all structures. The obtained set of molecular descriptors is applied in analysis of similarities and dissimilarities among the tested compounds. This study is an important step in further development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models, which can be used for prediction of anti-prion activity of newly synthesized compounds.

Keywords: chemometrics, molecular modeling, molecular descriptors, prions, QSAR

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

Abstract:

Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: statistical slope stability analysis, skew distributions, probability of failure, functions of random variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Munmunlisa Mohanty, K. D. Raju

Abstract:

Rail industry is one of the model employers in India has separate national legislation (Railways Act 1989) to regulate its vast employment structure, functioning across the country. Indian Railway is not only the premier transport industry of the country; indeed, it is Asia’s most extensive rail network organisation and the world’s second-largest industry functioning under one management. With the growth of globalization of industrial products, the scope of anti-employment discrimination is no more confined to gender aspect only; instead, it extended to the unregularized classification of labour force applicable in the various industrial establishments in India. And the Indian Rail Industry inadvertently enhanced such discriminatory employment trends by engaging contractual labour in an unprecedented manner. The engagement of contractual labour by rail industry vanished the core “Employer-Employee” relationship between rail management and contractual labour who employed through the contractor. This employment trend reduces the cost of production and supervision, discourages the contractual labour from forming unions, and reduces its collective bargaining capacity. So, the primary intention of this paper is to highlight the increasing discriminatory employment scope for contractual labour engaged by Indian Railways. This paper critically analyses the diminishing perspective of anti-employment opportunity practiced by Indian Railways towards contractual labour and demands an urgent outlook on the probable scope of anti-employment discrimination against contractual labour engaged by Indian Railways. The researcher used doctrinal methodology where primary materials (Railways Act, Contract Labour Act and Occupational, health and Safety Code, 2020) and secondary data (CAG Report 2018, Railways Employment Regulation Rules, ILO Report etc.) are used for the paper.

Keywords: anti-employment, CAG Report, contractual labour, discrimination, Indian Railway, principal employer

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Timothy Akinwande, Eddie C. M. Hui

Abstract:

Housing the urban poor has remained a challenge for many years across the world, especially in developing economies, despite the apparent research attention and policy interventions. It is apt to investigate the prevalent affordable housing (AH) provision challenges using unconventional approaches. It is pragmatic to thoroughly examine housing experts to provide supply-side solutions to AH challenges and investigate informal settlers to deduce solutions from AH demand viewpoints. This study being the supply-side investigation of an ongoing research, interrogated housing experts to determine significant expert solutions. Focus group discussions and in-depth interviews were conducted with housing experts in Nigeria. Through descriptive, content, and systematic thematic analyses of data, major findings are that deliberate finance models designed for the urban poor are the most significant housing finance solution in developing economies. Other findings are that adequately implemented rent control policies, deliberate PPP approaches like inclusionary housing and land-value capture, and urban renewal programmes to enlighten and tutor the urban poor on how to earn more, spend wisely, and invest in their own better housing will effectively solve AH finance challenges. Study findings are informative for the best approaches to achieve effective, affordable housing finance for the urban poor in Nigeria, which is indispensable for the achievement of sustainable development goals. This research’s originality lies in the exploration of experts’ opinions in relation to AH finance to produce an equation model of critical solutions to AH finance challenges. Study data are useful resources for future pro-poor housing studies. This study makes housing policy-oriented recommendations toward effective, affordable housing for the urban poor in developing countries.

Keywords: affordable housing, effective affordable housing, housing policy, housing research, sustainable development, urban poor

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Thanusha D. Abeywickrama, Inoka C. Perera, Genji Kurisu

Abstract:

Tuberculosis, considered being as the ninth leading cause of death worldwide, cause from a single infectious agent M. tuberculosis and the drug resistance nature of this bacterium is a continuing threat to the world. Therefore TB preventing treatment is expanding, where this study designed to analyze the regulatory mechanism of GntR transcriptional regulator gene Rv0792c, which lie between several genes codes for some hypothetical proteins, a monooxygenase and an oxidoreductase. The gene encoding Rv0792c was cloned into pET28a and expressed protein was purified to near homogeneity by Nickel affinity chromatography. It was previously reported that the protein binds within the intergenic region (BS region) between Rv0792c gene and monooxygenase (Rv0793). This resulted in binding of three protein molecules with the BS region suggesting tight control of monooxygenase as well as its own gene. Since monooxygenase plays a key role in metabolism, this gene may have a global regulatory role. The natural ligand for this regulator is still under investigation. In relation to the Rv0792 protein structure, a Circular Dichroism (CD) spectrum was carried out to determine its secondary structure elements. Percentage-wise, 17.4% Helix, 21.8% Antiparallel, 5.1% Parallel, 12.3% turn and 43.5% other were revealed from CD spectrum data under room temperature. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) was conducted to assess the thermal stability of Rv0792, which the melting temperature of protein is 57.2 ± 0.6 °C. The graph of heat capacity (Cp) versus temperature for the best fit was obtained for non-two-state model, which concludes the folding of Rv0792 protein occurs through stable intermediates. Peak area (∆HCal ) and Peak shape (∆HVant ) was calculated from the graph and ∆HCal / ∆HVant was close to 0.5, suggesting dimeric nature of the protein.

Keywords: CD spectrum, DSC analysis, GntR transcriptional regulator, protein structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: Samsher Gautam, Apoorva Roy, Bhuvan Aggarwal

Abstract:

Vapor absorption refrigeration systems can replace vapor compression systems in many applications as they can operate on a low-grade heat source and are environment-friendly. Widely used refrigerants such as CFCs and HFCs cause significant global warming. Natural refrigerants can be an alternative to them, among which carbon dioxide is promising for use in automotive air conditioning systems. Its inherent safety, ability to withstand high pressure and high heat transfer coefficient coupled with easy availability make it a likely choice for refrigerant. Various properties of the ionic liquid [bmim][PF₆], such as non-toxicity, stability over a wide temperature range and ability to dissolve gases like carbon dioxide, make it a suitable absorbent for a vapor absorption refrigeration system. In this paper, an absorption chiller consisting of a generator, condenser, evaporator and absorber was studied at an operating temperature of 70⁰C. A thermodynamic model was set up using the Peng-Robinson equations of state to predict the behavior of the refrigerant and absorbent pair at different points in the system. A MATLAB code was used to obtain the values of enthalpy and entropy at selected points in the system. The exergy destruction in each component and exergetic coefficient of performance (ECOP) of the system were calculated by performing an exergy analysis based on the second law of thermodynamics. Graphs were plotted between varying operating conditions and the ECOP obtained in each case. The effect of every component on the ECOP was examined. The exergetic coefficient of performance was found to be lesser than the coefficient of performance based on the first law of thermodynamics.

Keywords: [bmim][PF₆] as absorbent, carbon dioxide as refrigerant, exergy analysis, Peng-Robinson equations of state, vapor absorption refrigeration

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Hui Liu, Xiaozan Wang, Jiarong Zhong, Ziming Shao

Abstract:

Introduction: Related research shows that students don’t concentrate on teacher’s speaking in the classroom. The d2 attention test is a time-limited test about selective attention. The d2 attention test can be used to evaluate individual selective attention. Purpose: To use the d2 attention test tool to measure the difference between the attention level of the experimental class and the control class before and after Brain-Break and to explore the effect of Brain-Break in the classroom on students' selective attention. Methods: According to the principle of no difference in pre-test data, two classes in the fourth- grade of Shenzhen Longhua Central Primary School were selected. After 20 minutes of class in the third class in the morning and the third class in the afternoon, about 3-minute Brain-Break intervention was performed in the experimental class for 10 weeks. The normal class in the control class did not intervene. Before and after the experiment, the d2 attention test tool was used to test the attention level of the two-class students. The paired sample t-test and independent sample t-test in SPSS 23.0 was used to test the change in the attention level of the two-class classes around 10 weeks. This article only presents results with significant differences. Results: The independent sample t-test results showed that after ten-week of Brain-Break, the missed errors (E1 t = -2.165 p = 0.042), concentration performance (CP t = 1.866 p = 0.05), and the degree of omissions (Epercent t = -2.375 p = 0.029) in experimental class showed significant differences compared with control class. The students’ error level decreased and the concentration increased. Conclusions: Adding Brain-Break interventions in the classroom can effectively improve the attention level of fourth-grade primary school students to a certain extent, especially can improve the concentration of attention and decrease the error rate in the tasks. The new sport's learning model is worth promoting

Keywords: cultural class, micromotor, attention, D2 test

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Hsiao-Chien Tsai, Yu-Pin Chen, Ruei-Ming Chen

Abstract:

Introduction: Osteoarthritis (OA) is characterized by joint destruction and causes chronic disability. One of the prominent symptoms is pain. Alleviating the pain is necessary and urgent for the therapy of OA patients. However, currently, understanding the mechanisms that drive OA-induced pain remains challenging, which hampers the optimistic management of pain in OA patients. Semaphorin 4D (Sema4D) participates in axon guidance pathway and bone remodeling, thus, may play a role in the regulation of pain in OA. In this study, we have established a rat model of OA to find out the mechanisms of OA-induced pain and to deliberate the roles of Sema4D. Methods: Behavioral changes and the pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, TNF-α, and IL-17) associated with pain were measured during the development of OA. Sema4D expression in cartilage and synovial membrane at 1, 4, and 12 weeks after inducing OA was analyzed. To assess if Sema4D is related to the neurogenesis in OA as an axon repellant, we analyzed the expression of PGP9.5 as well. Results: Synovitis and cartilage degradation were evident histologically during the development of OA. Mechanical hyperalgesia was most severe at week 1, then persisted thereafter. It was associated with stress coping strategies. Similar to the pain behavioral results, levels of IL-1β and TNF-α in synovial lavage fluid were significantly elevated in the OA group at weeks 1 and 4, respectively. Sema4D expression in cartilage and the synovial membrane was also enhanced in the OA group and was correlated with pain and pro-inflammatory cytokines. The marker of neurogenesis, PGP9.5, was also enhanced during the development of OA. Discussion: OA induced mechanical hyperalgesia, which might be through upregulating IL-1β/TNF-α-mediated Sema4D expressions. If anti-Sema4D treatment could reduce OA-induced mechanical hyperalgesia and prevent the subsequent progression of OA needs to be further investigated. Significance: OA can induce mechanical hyperalgesia through upregulation of IL-1β/TNF-α-mediated Sema4D and PGP9.5 expressions. And the upregulation of Sema4D may indicate the severity or active status of OA and OA-induced pain.

Keywords: traumatic osteoarthritis, mechanical hyperalgesia, Sema4D, inflammatory cytokines

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Mohammed Alassim

Abstract:

In 2014, a UN survey stated that: "The greatest challenge to the adoption of whole-of government, which fundamentally rests on increased collaboration, is resistance to change among government actors". Change management has experienced both theoretically and practically many transformation over the years. When organizations have to implement radical changes, they have to encounter a plethora of issues which leads to ineffective or inefficient implementation of change in most cases. 70% of change projects fail because of human issues. It has been cited that” most studies still show a 60-70% failure rate for organizational change projects — a statistic that has stayed constant from the 1970’s to the present.”. E-government involves not just technical change but cultural, policy, social and organizational evolution. Managing change and overcoming resistance to change is seen as crucial in the success of E-government projects. Resistance can be from different levels in the organization (top management, middle management or employees at operational levels). There can be many reasons for resistance including fear of change and insecurity, lack of knowledge and absence of commitment from management to implement the change. The purpose of this study is to conduct in-depth research to understand the process of change and to identify the critical factors that have led to resistance from employees at different levels (top management, Middle management and operational employees) during e-government initiatives in the public sector in Saudi Arabia. The study is based on qualitative and empirical research methods conducted in the public sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This research will use triangulation in data method (interview, group discussion and document review). This research will contribute significantly to knowledge in this field and will identify the measures that can be taken to reduce resistance to change, Upon analysis recommendations or model will be offered which can enable decision makers in public sector in Saudi Arabia how to plan, implement and evaluate change in e-government initiatives via change management strategy.

Keywords: change management, e-government, managing change, resistance to change

Procedia PDF Downloads 315