Search results for: market crash prediction

Authors: Ruixia Liu

Abstract:

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has an important influence on the precipitation of its lower reaches. Data from remote sensing has itself advantage and numerical prediction model which assimilates RS data will be better than other. We got the assimilation data of MHS and terrestrial and sounding from GSI, and introduced the result into WRF, then got the result of RH and precipitation forecast. We found that assimilating MHS and terrestrial and sounding made the forecast on precipitation, area and the center of the precipitation more accurate by comparing the result of 1h,6h,12h, and 24h. Analyzing the difference of the initial field, we knew that the data assimilating about Qinghai-Tibet Plateau influence its lower reaches forecast by affecting on initial temperature and RH.

Keywords: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, precipitation, data assimilation, GSI

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Hussam Elias, Ninovic Perez, Holger Hirsch

Abstract:

The completion of the EMC regulations worldwide is growing steadily as the usage of electronics in our daily lives is increasing more than ever. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to perform the final phase of Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) measurement and to reduce the required test time according to the norm EN 55032 by using a developed tool and the conventional neural network(CNN). The neural network was trained using real EMC measurements, which were performed in the Semi Anechoic Chamber (SAC) by CETECOM GmbH in Essen, Germany. To implement our proposed method, we wrote software to perform the radiated electromagnetic interference (EMI) measurements and use the CNN to predict and determine the position of the turntable that meets the maximum radiation value.

Keywords: conventional neural network, electromagnetic compatibility measurement, mean absolute error, position error

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: D. Mokatsanyane, J. Jansen Van Rensburg

Abstract:

This paper analyses the influence and impact of COVID-19 on major agricultural commodity prices in South Africa. According to a World Bank report, the agricultural sector in South Africa has been unable to reduce the domestic food crisis that has been occurring over the past years, hence the increased rate of poverty, which is currently at 55.5 percent as of April 2020. Despite the significance of this sector, empirical findings concluded that the agricultural sector now accounts for 1.88 percent of South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP). Suggesting that the agricultural sector's contribution to the economy has diminished. Despite the low contribution to GDP, this primary sector continues to play an essential role in the economy. Over the past years, multiple factors have contributed to the soaring commodities prices, namely, climate shocks, biofuel demand, demand and supply shocks, the exchange rate, speculation in commodity derivative markets, trade restrictions, and economic growth. The COVID-19 outbursts have currently disturbed the supply and demand of staple crops. To address the disruption, the government has exempted the agricultural sector from closure and restrictions on movement. The spread of COVID-19 has caused turmoil all around the world, but mostly in developing countries. According to Statistic South Africa, South Africa's economy decreased by seven percent in 2020. Consequently, this has arguably made the agricultural sector the most affected sector since slumped economic growth negatively impacts food security, trade, farm livelihood, and greenhouse gas emissions. South Africa is sensitive to the fruitfulness of global food chains. Restrictions in trade, reinforced sanitary control systems, and border controls have influenced food availability and prices internationally. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of agricultural commodity prices pre-and during-COVID to determine the impact of volatility drivers on these crops. Historical secondary data of spot prices for the top five major commodities, namely white maize, yellow maize, wheat, soybeans, and sunflower seeds, are analysed from 01 January 2017 to 1 September 2021. The timeframe was chosen to capture price fluctuations between pre-COVID-19 (01 January 2017 to 23 March 2020) and during-COVID-19 (24 March 2020 to 01 September 2021). The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be used to measure the influence of price fluctuations. The results reveal that the commodity market has been experiencing volatility at different points. Extremely high volatility is represented during the first quarter of 2020. During this period, there was high uncertainty, and grain prices were very volatile. Despite the influence of COVID-19 on agricultural prices, the demand for these commodities is still existing and decent. During COVID-19, analysis indicates that prices were low and less volatile during the pandemic. The prices and returns of these commodities were low during COVID-19 because of the government's actions to respond to the virus's spread, which collapsed the market demand for food commodities.

Keywords: commodities market, commodity prices, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Price volatility, SAFEX

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Aditya Sharma

Abstract:

Profits earned from relative strength strategy of zero-cost portfolio i.e. taking long position in winner stocks and short position in loser stocks from recent past are termed as momentum profits. In recent times, there has been lot of controversy and concern about sources of momentum profits, since the existence of these profits acts as an evidence of earning non-normal returns from publicly available information directly contradicting Efficient Market Hypothesis. Literature review reveals conflicting theories and differing evidences on sources of momentum profits. This paper aims at re-examining the sources of momentum profits in Indian capital markets. The study focuses on assessing the effect of fundamental as well as behavioral sources in order to understand the role of investor behavior in stock returns and suggest (if any) improvements to existing behavioral asset pricing models. This Paper adopts calendar time methodology to calculate momentum profits for 6 different strategies with and without skipping a month between ranking and holding period. For each J/K strategy, under this methodology, at the beginning of each month t stocks are ranked on past j month’s average returns and sorted in descending order. Stocks in upper decile are termed winners and bottom decile as losers. After ranking long and short positions are taken in winner and loser stocks respectively and both portfolios are held for next k months, in such manner that at any given point of time we have K overlapping long and short portfolios each, ranked from t-1 month to t-K month. At the end of period, returns of both long and short portfolios are calculated by taking equally weighted average across all months. Long minus short returns (LMS) are momentum profits for each strategy. Post testing for momentum profits, to study the role market risk plays in momentum profits, CAPM and Fama French three factor model adjusted LMS returns are calculated. In the final phase of studying sources, decomposing methodology has been used for breaking up the profits into unconditional means, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations. This methodology is unbiased, can be used with the decile-based methodology and helps to test the effect of behavioral and fundamental sources altogether. From all the analysis, it was found that momentum profits do exist in Indian capital markets with market risk playing little role in defining them. Also, it was observed that though momentum profits have multiple sources (risk, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations), cross-serial correlations plays a major role in defining these profits. The study revealed that momentum profits do have multiple sources however, cross-serial correlations i.e. the effect of returns of other stocks play a major role. This means that in addition to studying the investors` reactions to the information of the same firm it is also important to study how they react to the information of other firms. The analysis confirms that investor behavior does play an important role in stock returns and incorporating both the aspects of investors’ reactions in behavioral asset pricing models help make then better.

Keywords: investor behavior, momentum effect, sources of momentum, stock returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Oksana Koval, Stephen Nabareseh

Abstract:

Talent attraction is identified as a top priority between 2015 – 2020 for Shared Service Centers (SSCs) based on an industry-wide studies. Due to market dynamics and the structure of labour force, shared service industries in Eastern and Central Europe strive for qualified graduates with appropriate and unique skills to occupy such job places. The inbuilt interest and course prescriptions undertaken by prospective job seekers determine whether SSCs will eventually admit such professionals. This paper assesses students’ overall perception of careers in the shared services industry and further diagnosis gender impact and influence on the job preferences among students. Questionnaires were distributed among students in the Czech Republic universities using an online mode. Respondents vary by study year, gender, age, course of study, and work preferences. A total of 1283 student responses has been analyzed using Stata data analytics software. It was discovered that over 70% of respondents who are aware of SSCs are quite ignorant of the job opportunities offered by the centers. While majority of respondents are interested in support positions (e.g. procurement specialist, planning specialist, human resource specialist, process improvement specialist and payroll specialist, etc.), around a third of respondents (32.8 percent) will decline a job offer from SSCs. The analysis also revealed that males are more likely than females to seek careers in international companies, hence, tend to be more favorable towards shared service jobs. Females, however, have stronger preferences towards marketing and PR jobs. The research results provide insights into the job aspirations of students interviewed. The findings provide a huge resource for recruitment agencies and shared service industries to renew and redirect their search for talents into SSCs. Based on the fact that great portion of respondents are planning to start their career within 6-12 months, the research provides important highlights for the talent attraction and recruitment strategies in the industry and provides a curriculum direction in academia.

Keywords: Czech Republic labour market, gender, talent attraction, shared service centers, students

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Mohammed Mainoma, Abubakar Tijanni, Mohammed Aliyu

Abstract:

Globalization has brought a structural change in industry. It is the breaking of artificial boundaries and given way to new product, new service, new market, and new technology among others. It leads to the realization that men entrepreneurs’ alone cannot meet the demand of the teeming population. Therefore there is a need for the participation, involvement, and engagement of females in the production and distribution of goods and services. This will enhance growth and development of a nation. It is in line with the above that this paper attempt to discuss meaning of women entrepreneurs, roles, types, problems, and prospects. Also, on the basis of conclusion the paper recommended that entrepreneurship education should be introduced in all Tertiary Institutions in Nigeria.

Keywords: women, entrepreneurs, issues, challenges

Procedia PDF Downloads 518

Authors: Fatemeh Rouhi, Hadi Nassiri

Abstract:

Earning forecast is a key element in economic decisions but there are some situations, such as conflicts of interest in financial reporting, complexity and lack of direct access to information has led to the phenomenon of information asymmetry among individuals within the organization and external investors and creditors that appear. The adverse selection and moral hazard in the investor's decision and allows direct assessment of the difficulties associated with data by users makes. In this regard, the role of trustees in corporate governance disclosure is crystallized that includes controls and procedures to ensure the lack of movement in the interests of the company's management and move in the direction of maximizing shareholder and company value. Therefore, the earning forecast of companies in the capital market and the need to identify factors influencing this study was an attempt to make relationship between moral hazard and corporate governance with earning forecast quality companies operating in the capital market and its impact on Earnings Forecasts quality by the company to be established. Getting inspiring from the theoretical basis of research, two main hypotheses and sub-hypotheses are presented in this study, which have been examined on the basis of available models, and with the use of Panel-Data method, and at the end, the conclusion has been made at the assurance level of 95% according to the meaningfulness of the model and each independent variable. In examining the models, firstly, Chow Test was used to specify either Panel Data method should be used or Pooled method. Following that Housman Test was applied to make use of Random Effects or Fixed Effects. Findings of the study show because most of the variables are positively associated with moral hazard with earnings forecasts quality, with increasing moral hazard, earning forecast quality companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is increasing. Among the variables related to corporate governance, board independence variables have a significant relationship with earnings forecast accuracy and earnings forecast bias but the relationship between board size and earnings forecast quality is not statistically significant.

Keywords: corporate governance, earning forecast quality, moral hazard, financial sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Prachi Desai, Ankita Gandhi, Mitali Acharya

Abstract:

Rainfall forecast is mainly used for predictions of rainfall in a specified area and determining their future rainfall conditions. Rainfall is always a global issue as it affects all major aspects of one's life. Agricultural, fisheries, forestry, tourism industry and other industries are widely affected by these conditions. The studies have resulted in insufficient availability of water resources and an increase in water demand in the near future. We already have a new forecast system that uses the deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to forecast monthly rainfall and climate changes. We have also compared CNN against Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Machine Learning techniques that are used in rainfall predictions include ARIMA Model, ANN, LR, SVM etc. The dataset on which we are experimenting is gathered online over the year 1901 to 20118. Test results have suggested more realistic improvements than conventional rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: ANN, CNN, supervised learning, machine learning, deep learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Martha E. Ikome, John M. Ikome

Abstract:

Intellectual property should be a day-to-day business decision due to its value, but increasingly, a number of institution are still not aware of the importance. Intellectual Property (IP) and its value are often not adequately appreciated. In the increasingly knowledge-driven economy, IP is a key consideration in day-to-day business decisions because new ideas and products appear almost daily in the market, which results in continuous innovation and research. Therefore, this paper will focus on the importance of IP for universities of technology and also further demonstrates how IP can become an economic tool and the challenges faced by these universities in implementing an IP system.

Keywords: intellectual property, institutions, challenges, protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Azzi Mohammed Amin

Abstract:

In the last decade Algeria has investigated in a scale of economic reforms including different areas, among these; reforms in the banking system. This was mainly through the implementation of some regulations that facilitate the shift to market economy and guarantee integration into global economy. The most important new ideas that have emerged in this area are perhaps to find a possibility of integrating the so called e-banking. Based on what has already been stated, we will try in this study to highlight the significant role of electronic banking services as novel trends in the modernization and development of Algerian banks.

Keywords: banking technology, Internet banks, modernization of banks, virtual banks

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Martin Kendra, Jaroslav Mašek, Juraj Čamaj, Matej Babin

Abstract:

The railway transport is considered as a one of the most environmentally friendly mode of transport. With future prediction of increasing of freight transport there are lines facing problems with demanded capacity. Increase of the track capacity could be achieved by infrastructure constructive adjustments. The contribution shows how the travel time can be minimized and the track capacity increased by changing some of the basic infrastructure and operation parameters, for example, the minimal curve radius of the track, the number of tracks, or the usable track length at stations. Calculation of the necessary parameter changes is based on the fundamental physical laws applied to the train movement, and calculation of the occupation time is dependent on the changes of controlling the traffic between the stations.

Keywords: curve radius, maximum curve speed, track mass capacity, reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Sheikh Mohammed Rafiul Huque

Abstract:

Bangladesh since its inception has been an economy that is fuelled by agriculture and agriculture has significant contribution to the GDP of Bangladesh. The agriculture of Bangladesh predominantly and historically dependent on organic sources of raw material though the place has taken in decades by inorganic sources of raw materials due to the high demand of food for rapidly growing of population. Meanwhile, a new market segment, which is niche market, has been evolving in the urban area in favor of organic products, though 71.1% population living in rural areas is dependent mainly on conventional products. The new market segment is search of healthy and safer source of food and they could believe that organic products are the solution of that. In Bangladesh, food adulteration is very common practices among the shop-keepers to extend the shelf life of raw vegetables and fruits. The niche group of city dwellers is aware about the fact and gradually shifting their buying behavior to organic products. A recent survey on organic farming revealed that 16,200 hectares under organic farming in recent time, which was only 2,500 hectares in 2008. This study is focused on consumer awareness of organic products and tried to explore the factors affecting organic food consumption among high income group of people. The hypothesis is developed to explore the effect of gender (GENDER), ability to purchase (ABILITY) and health awareness (HEALTH) on purchase intention (INTENTION). A snowball sampling was administered among the high income group of people in Dhaka city among 150 respondents. In this sampling process the study could identify only those samples who has consume organic products. A Partial Least Square (PLS) method was used to analyze data using path analysis. It was revealed from the analysis that coefficient determination R2 is 0.829 for INTENTION endogenous latent variable. This means that three latent variables (GENDER, ABILITY, and HEALTH) significantly explain 82.9% of the variance in INTENTION of purchasing organic products. Moreover, GENDER solely explains 6.3% and 8.6% variability of ABILITY and HEALTH respectively. The inner model suggests that HEALTH has strongest negative effect on INTENTION (-0.647) followed by ABILITY (0.344) and GENDER (0.246). The hypothesized path relationship between ABILITY->INTENTION, HEALTH->INTENTION and GENDER->INTENTION are statistically significant. Furthermore, the hypothesized path relationship between GENDER->ABILITY (0.262) and GENDER->HEALTH (-0.292) also statistically significant. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate how an organic product producer can improve his participatory guarantee system (PGS) while marketing the products. The study focuses on understanding gender (GENDER), ability (ABILITY) and health (HEALTH) factors while positioning the products (INTENTION) in the mind of the consumer. In this study, the respondents are found to care about high price and ability to purchase variables with loading -0.920 and 0.898. They are good indicators of ability to purchase (ABILITY). The marketers should consider about price of organic comparing to conventional products while marketing, otherwise, that will create negative intention to buy with a loading of -0.939. Meanwhile, it is also revealed that believability of chemical free component in organic products and health awareness affects health (HEALTH) components with high loading -0.941 and 0.682. The study analyzes that low believability of chemical free component and high price of organic products affects intension to buy. The marketers should not overlook this point while targeting the consumers in Bangladesh.

Keywords: health awareness, organic products, purchase ability, purchase intention

Procedia PDF Downloads 376

Authors: Zulaika Mohd Khasiran

Abstract:

The capability of ionic liquids in various applications makes them attracted by many researchers. They have potential to be developed as “green” solvents for gas separation, especially H2S gas. In this work, it is attempted to predict the solubility of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) in ILs by COSMO-RS method. Since H2S is a toxic pollutant, it is difficult to work on it in the laboratory, therefore an appropriate model will be necessary in prior work. The COSMO-RS method is implemented to predict the Henry’s law constants and activity coefficient of H2S in 140 ILs with various combinations of cations and anions. It is found by the screening that more H2S can be absorbed in ILs with [Cl] and [Ac] anion. The solubility of H2S in ILs with different alkyl chain at the cations not much affected and with different type of cations are slightly influence H2S capture capacities. Even though the cations do not affect much in solubility of H2S, we still need to consider the effectiveness of cation in different way. The prediction results only show their physical absorption ability, but the absorption of H2S need to be consider chemically to get high capacity of absorption of H2S.

Keywords: H2S, hydrogen sulfide, ionic liquids, COSMO-RS

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: B. Sayaheen

Abstract:

The translator’s competence is one of the topics that has received a great deal of research in the field of translation studies because such competencies are still debatable and not yet agreed upon. Besides, scholars tackle this topic from different points of view. Approaches to teaching these competencies have gone through some developments. This paper aims at investigating these developments, exploring the major turning points and shifts in the developments of teaching methods in translator training. The significance of these turning points and the external or internal causes will also be discussed. Based on the past and present status of teaching approaches in translator training, this paper tries to predict the future of these approaches. This paper is mainly concerned with developments of teaching approaches in the West since the 1980s to the present. The reason behind choosing this specific period is not because translator training started in the 1980s but because most criticism of the teacher-centered approach started at that time. The implications of this research stem from the fact that it identifies the turning points and the causes that led teachers to adopt student-centered approaches rather than teacher-centered approaches and then to incorporate technology and the Internet in translator training. These reasons were classified as external or internal reasons. Translation programs in the West and in other cultures can benefit from this study. Translation programs in the West can notice that teaching translation is geared toward incorporating more technologies. If these programs already use technology and the Internet to teach translation, they might benefit from the assumed future direction of teaching translation. On the other hand, some non-Western countries, and to be specific some professors, are still applying the teacher-centered approach. Moreover, these programs should include technology and the Internet in their teaching approaches to meet the drastic changes in the translation process, which seems to rely more on software and technologies to accomplish the translator’s tasks. Finally, translator training has borrowed many of its approaches from other disciplines, mainly language teaching. The teaching approaches in translator training have gone through some developments, from teacher-centered to student-centered and then toward the integration of technologies and the Internet. Both internal and external causes have played a crucial role in these developments. These borrowed approaches should be comprehensively evaluated in order to see if they achieve the goals of translator training. Such evaluation may lead us to come up with new teaching approaches developed specifically for translator training. While considering these methods and designing new approaches, we need to keep an eye on the future needs of the market.

Keywords: turning points, developments, translator training, market, The West

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: S. Belhour, A. K. Ferouani, C. Azizi

Abstract:

In recent years, a considerable effort (experience, numerical simulation, and theoretical prediction models) has characterised by high efficiency and low cost. Then an improved physics analytical model for simulating is proposed. The performance of GaAs MESFETs has been developed for use in device design for high frequency. This model is based on mathematical analysis, and a new approach for the standard model is proposed, this approach allowed to conceive applicable model for MESFET’s operating in the turn-one or pinch-off region and valid for the short-channel and the long channel MESFET’s in which the two dimensional potential distribution contributed by the depletion layer under the gate is obtained by conventional approximation. More ever, comparisons between the analytical models with different values of mobility are proposed, and a good agreement is obtained.

Keywords: analytical, gallium arsenide, MESFET, mobility, models

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Vinícius L. L. Morrone, David Douek, Helder M. F. Pereira, Bernadete L. M. Grandolpho

Abstract:

This work aimed to identify the relationships between the level of consumer environmental awareness and their search for sustainable properties, as well as to understand the main sustainability structures considered by these consumers during the decision process. Additionally, the paper looked up to the influence environmental awareness and financial status have over the disposition of buyers to pay more for sustainable properties. To achieve these objectives, 318 questionnaires were answered electronically, after being sent to the Green Building Brazil email basis, as to other Real Estate developers client basis. From all the questionnaires answered, 71 were discarded, leaving a total amount of 247 admitted questionnaires to be analyzed. The responses were evaluated based on the theory of consumer decision making, especially on the influence factors of this process. The data were processed using a PLS model, using the R software. The results have shown that the level of consumer environmental awareness effectively affects the consumer’s will of acquiring a sustainable property or, at least, a property with some environmental friendly structures. The consumer’s environmental awareness also positively impacts the importance consumers give to individual environmental friendly structures. Also, as a consumer value to those individual structures raises, it is also observed a raise in his will to buy a sustainable property. Additionally, the impact of consumer’s environmental awareness and financial status over the willingness to pay more for a property with those attributes. The results indicate that there was no relationship between consumers' environmental awareness and their willingness to pay more for a sustainable property. On the other hand, the financial status and the family income of the consumers showed a positive relation with the willingness to pay more for a sustainable property. This indicates that consumers with better financial conditions, which according to the analysis do not necessarily have a greater environmental awareness, are those who are willing to pay more for a sustainable property. Thus, this study indicates that, even if the environmental awareness impact positively the demand for sustainable structures and properties, this impact is not price reflected, due to the price elasticity of the consumption, especially for a category of lower income consumers. This paper adds to the literature in the way it projects some guidelines to the consumer’s decision process in the Real Estate market in emerging economies, as well as it presents some drivers to pricing decisions.

Keywords: consumer behavior, environmental awareness, real estate pricing, sustainable buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: B. Y. Danjuma, A. Archibong-Eso, Aliyu M. Aliyu, H. Yeung

Abstract:

In this experimental investigation, a new data for slugging frequency for high viscosity oil-gas flow are reported. Scale experiments were carried out using a mixture of air and mineral oil as the liquid phase in a 17 m long horizontal pipe with 0.0762 ID. The data set was acquired using two high-speed Gamma Densitometers at a data acquisition frequency of 250 Hz over a time interval of 30 seconds. For the range of flow conditions investigated, increase in liquid oil viscosity was observed to strongly influence the slug frequency. A comparison of the present data with prediction models available in the literature revealed huge discrepancies. A new correlation incorporating the effect of viscosity on slug frequency has been proposed for the horizontal flow, which represents the main contribution of this work.

Keywords: gamma densitometer, flow pattern, pressure gradient, slug frequency

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

Abstract:

Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Rafikoddin Kazi

Abstract:

Almost all the major religions of the world condemn the transactions based on interest which promotes self-centered and materialistic thinking. Still, it is amazing to note that it has become the tradition of transaction at world level hence it is called traditional financial system. The main feature of this system is that it considers economic aspects of the transaction only. This system supports the economic development and not the welfare of humankind. However, it is worth mentioning the fact that, except Islamic financial system no other financial system stood in front of it as a viable alternative system. Although many countries have tried to create financial infrastructure and system, still the Malaysian Islamic financial system has got its own peculiarity. It has made tremendous progress in creating sound Islamic Financial system. However, the historical aspect of this country which has passed through Islamic and traditional financial system has got its own advantages and disadvantages. The advantageous factor is that, despite having mix and heterogeneous culture, it has succeeded in creating Islamic Financial System based on the dual legal system to satisfy the needs of multi-cultural factors. This fact has proved that Islamic Financial System does not need purely Muslim population. However, due to adoption of the dual legal system, several legal issues have been taken place. According to this system, the application of Islamic Law has been limited only up to some family and religious matters. The rest of the matters are being dealt with under the traditional laws, the principles and practices of which are different from that of the Islamic Legal System. The matter becomes all the more complicated when the cases are partially or simultaneously concerned with traditional vis-à-vis Islamic Laws as it requires expertise in both the legal systems. However, the educational principles and systems are different in respect of both the systems. To face this problem, Shariah Advisory Council has been established. But the Multiplicity of Shariah authorities without judicial power has created confusion at various levels. Therefore, some experts have stressed the need for improving, empowering the Islamic financial, legal system to make it more integrated and holistic. In view of the above, an endeavor has been made in this paper to throw some light on the matters related to the adoption of the dual legal system. The paper is conceptual in nature and the method adopted is the intensive survey of literature thereby all the information has been gathered from the secondary sources.

Keywords: Islamic financial system, Islamic legal system, Islamic capital market (ICM) , traditional financial system

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Maassoumeh Bemani Naeini

Abstract:

Studies on interlanguage have long been engaged in describing the phenomenon of variation in SLA. Pursuing the same goal and particularly addressing the role of linguistic features, this study describes the use of Persian morphology in the interlanguage of two adult English-speaking learners of Persian L2. Taking the general approach of a combination of contrastive analysis, error analysis and interlanguage analysis, this study focuses on the identification and prediction of some possible instances of transfer from English L1 to Persian L2 across six elicitation tasks aiming to investigate whether any of contextual features may variably influence the learners’ order of morpheme accuracy in the areas of copula, possessives, articles, demonstratives, plural form, personal pronouns, and genitive cases.  Results describe the existence of task variation in the interlanguage system of Persian L2 learners.

Keywords: English L1, Interlanguage Analysis, Persian L2, SLA variation

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: Bhargavi G. Iyer, Ojaswi Bhagat

Abstract:

It is often noted that the value of a novel idea lies in its successful implementation. However, successful implementation requires the nurturing and encouragement of innovation. Nascent competitors are a true representation of innovation in any given industry. A nascent competitor is an entity whose prospective innovation poses a future threat to an incumbent dominant competitor. While a nascent competitor benefits in several ways, it is also exposed significantly and is at greater risk of facing the brunt of exclusionary practises and abusive conduct by dominant incumbent competitors in the industry. This research paper aims to explore the risks and threats faced by nascent competitors and analyse the benefits they accrue as well as the advantages they proffer to the economy; through an analytical, critical study. In such competitive market environments, a rise of the acquisitions of nascent competitors by the incumbent dominants is observed. Therefore, this paper will examine the dynamics of nascent acquisition. Further, this paper hopes to specifically delve into the role of antitrust bodies in regulating nascent acquisition. This paper also aspires to deal with the question how to distinguish harmful from harmless acquisitions in order to facilitate ideal enforcement practice. This paper proposes mechanisms of scrutiny in order to ensure healthy market practises and efficient merger control in the context of nascent acquisitions. Taking into account the scope and nature of the topic, as well as the resources available and accessible, a combination of the methods of doctrinal research and analytical research were employed, utilising secondary sources in order to assess and analyse the subject of research. While legally evaluating the Killer Acquisition theory and the Nascent Potential Acquisition theory, this paper seeks to critically survey the precedents and instances of nascent acquisitions. In addition to affording a compendious account of the legislative framework and regulatory mechanisms in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union; it hopes to suggest an internationally practicable legal foundation for domestic legislation and enforcement to adopt. This paper hopes to appreciate the complexities and uncertainties with respect to nascent acquisitions and attempts to suggest viable and plausible policy measures in antitrust law. It additionally attempts to examine the effects of such nascent acquisitions upon the consumer and the market economy. This paper weighs the argument of shifting the evidentiary burden on to the merging parties in order to improve merger control and regulation and expounds on its discovery of the strengths and weaknesses of the approach. It is posited that an effective combination of factual, legal, and economic analysis of both the acquired and acquiring companies possesses the potential to improve ex post and ex ante merger review outcomes involving nascent companies; thus, preventing anti-competitive practises. This paper concludes with an analysis of the possibility and feasibility of industry-specific identification of anti-competitive nascent acquisitions and implementation of measures accordingly.

Keywords: acquisition, antitrust law, exclusionary practises merger control, nascent competitor

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: F. Calderón-Vega, A. D. García-Soto, C. Mösso

Abstract:

Recorded significant wave heights sometimes exhibit large uncommon values (outliers) that can be associated with extreme phenomena such as hurricanes and cold fronts. In this study, some extremely large wave heights recorded in NOAA buoys (National Data Buoy Center, noaa.gov) are used to investigate their effect in the prediction of future wave heights associated with given return periods. Extreme waves are predicted through a time-dependent model based on the so-called generalized extreme value distribution. It is found that the outliers do affect the estimated wave heights. It is concluded that a detailed inspection of outliers is envisaged to determine whether they are real recorded values since this will impact defining design wave heights for coastal protection purposes.

Keywords: GEV model, non-stationary, seasonality, outliers

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Themistoklis Tzimas

Abstract:

The proposed paper focuses on a triangular relationship, between human security, human development and responsibility to rebuild. This relationship constitutes the innovative contribution to the debate about human security. Human security constitutes a generic and legally binding notion, which orientates from an integrated approach the UN Charter principles and of the collective security system. Such an approach brings at the forefront of international law and of international relations not only states but non- state actors as well. Several doctrines attempt to implement the fore-mentioned approach among which the Responsibility to Protect- hereinafter R2P- doctrine and its aspect of Responsibility to Rebuild- hereinafter R2R. In this sense, R2P in general and R2R are supposed to be guided by human security imperatives. Human security because of its human- centered approach encompasses as an integral part of it, human development. Human development constitutes part of the backbone of human security, since it deals with the social and economic root- causes of the threats, which human security attempts to confront. In this sense, doctrines which orientate from human security, such as R2P and its R2R aspect should also take into account human development imperatives, in order to improve their efficiency. On the contrary though, R2R is more often linked with market- orientated policies, which are often imposed under transitional authorities, regardless of local needs. The implementation of such policies can be identified as a cause for striking failures in the framework of R2R. In addition it is a misinterpretation of the essence of human security and subsequently of R2P as well. The findings of the article, on the basis of the fore-mentioned argument is that a change must take place from a market- orientated misinterpretation of R2R to an approach attempting to implement human development doctrines, since the latter lie at the heart of human security and can be proven more effective in dealing with the root- causes of conflicts. Methodologically, the article begins with an examination of human security and of its binding nature on the basis of its orientation from the UN Charter. It also examines its significance in the framework of the collective security system. Then, follows the analysis of why and how human development constitutes an integral part of human security. At the next part it is proven that R2P in general and R2R more specifically constitute or should constitute an attempt to implement human security doctrines within the collective security system. Having built this triangular relationship it is argued that human development is proven to be the most suitable notion, so that the spirit of human security and the scopes of R2P are successfully implemented.

Keywords: human security, un charter, responsibility to protect, responsibility to rebuild, human development

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Ning Chang, Zelong Yuan, Yunpeng Wang, Jianchun Wang

Abstract:

The utilization of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) has been extensive in turbulence research. LES concentrates on resolving the significant grid-scale motions while representing smaller scales through subfilter-scale (SFS) models. The deconvolution model, among the available SFS models, has proven successful in LES of engineering and geophysical flows. Nevertheless, the thorough investigation of how sub-filter scale dynamics and filter anisotropy affect SFS modeling accuracy remains lacking. The outcomes of LES are significantly influenced by filter selection and grid anisotropy, factors that have not been adequately addressed in earlier studies. This study examines two crucial aspects of LES: Firstly, the accuracy of direct deconvolution models (DDM) is evaluated concerning sub-filter scale (SFS) dynamics across varying filter-to-grid ratios (FGR) in isotropic turbulence. Various invertible filters are employed, including Gaussian, Helmholtz I and II, Butterworth, Chebyshev I and II, Cauchy, Pao, and rapidly decaying filters. The importance of FGR becomes evident as it plays a critical role in controlling errors for precise SFS stress prediction. When FGR is set to 1, the DDM models struggle to faithfully reconstruct SFS stress due to inadequate resolution of SFS dynamics. Notably, prediction accuracy improves when FGR is set to 2, leading to accurate reconstruction of SFS stress, except for cases involving Helmholtz I and II filters. Remarkably high precision, nearly 100%, is achieved at an FGR of 4 for all DDM models. Furthermore, the study extends to filter anisotropy and its impact on SFS dynamics and LES accuracy. By utilizing the dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), dynamic mixed model (DMM), and direct deconvolution model (DDM) with anisotropic filters, aspect ratios (AR) ranging from 1 to 16 are examined in LES filters. The results emphasize the DDM’s proficiency in accurately predicting SFS stresses under highly anisotropic filtering conditions. Notably high correlation coefficients exceeding 90% are observed in the a priori study for the DDM’s reconstructed SFS stresses, surpassing those of the DSM and DMM models. However, these correlations tend to decrease as filter anisotropy increases. In the a posteriori analysis, the DDM model consistently outperforms the DSM and DMM models across various turbulence statistics, including velocity spectra, probability density functions related to vorticity, SFS energy flux, velocity increments, strainrate tensors, and SFS stress. It is evident that as filter anisotropy intensifies, the results of DSM and DMM deteriorate, while the DDM consistently delivers satisfactory outcomes across all filter-anisotropy scenarios. These findings underscore the potential of the DDM framework as a valuable tool for advancing the development of sophisticated SFS models for LES in turbulence research.

Keywords: deconvolution model, large eddy simulation, subfilter scale modeling, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Jiayun Shen, Lorenz Wyss, Thierry Golliard, Matthias Finger

Abstract:

Innovation is widely recognized as the key for private enterprises to win the market competition. The state-owned-enterprises need to be innovative to compete in the market after the privatization as well. However, it is a lack of research to study how state-owned-enterprises manage innovation to create new products and services. Swiss Post, a Swiss state-owned-enterprises, has established a department to transform the corporate culture and foster innovation to achieve digital transformation. This paper describes the innovation management process at the Swiss Post and analyzes the impacts of the instruments, the organizational structure, and explores the barriers of innovation. This study used qualitative methods based on a review of the literature on innovation management and semi-structured interviews. Being established for over five years, the Swiss Post’s innovation management department has established a software-assisted modularized platform with systematic instruments to help the internal employees with the different innovation processes. It guides the innovators from idea creation to piloting in markets and supports with a separate financing source, with knowledge inputs and coaching, as well as with connections to external partners through the open innovation and venturing team. The platform also adapts to different business units within the corporate with a customized tailor for the various operational business units. The separate financing instruments enabled the creation and further development of new ideas; the coaching services contribute greatly to the transformation of teams’ innovation culture by providing new knowledge, thinking methods, and use cases for inspiration. It also facilitates organizational learning to help the whole corporate with the digital transformation. However, it is also confronted with a big challenge in twofold. Internally, the disruptive projects often hardly overcome the obstacles of long-established operational processes in the traditional business units; externally, the expectations of the public and restrictions from the federal government have become high hurdles for the company to stay and compete in the innovation track.

Keywords: empirical case study, innovation management, state-owned-enterprise, Swiss Post

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Harold Vásquez, Cesar Hernández, Ingrid Páez

Abstract:

This paper approach cognitive radio technic and applied pure proactive handoff Model to decrease interference between PU and SU and comparing it with reactive handoff model. Through the study and analysis of multivariate models SAW and TOPSIS join to 3 dynamic prediction techniques AR, MA ,and ARMA. To evaluate the best model is taken four metrics: number failed handoff, number handoff, number predictions, and number interference. The result presented the advantages using this type of pure proactive models to predict changes in the PU according to the selected channel and reduce interference. The model showed better performance was TOPSIS-MA, although TOPSIS-AR had a higher predictive ability this was not reflected in the interference reduction.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum handoff, decision making, time series, wireless networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Alistair Duffy, Ashley Hopwell

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. Current research in this area focused on limited number of factors specific to a single product or a business type. This paper gives an overview of the current literature on the variability factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then extends it by adding new factors and investigating if there is a time lag and possibility of noise in the orders. It also identifies the most important factors using correlation and Principal Component Analysis (PCA).

Keywords: demand forecasting, deteriorating products, food wholesalers, principal component analysis, variability factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: Pavel Porubiak, Lukas Kudlacek

Abstract:

Introduction Transplant tourism is a controversial method of obtaining an organ, and that goes all the more for a country such as China, where sources of evidence point out to the possibility of organs being harvested illegally. This research aimed at listing the individual countries these tourists come from, or which medical companies sell transplant related products in there, with China being used as an example. Materials and methods The methodology of scoping study was used for both parts of the research. The countries from which transplant tourists come to China were identified by a search through existing medical studies in the NCBI PubMed database, listed under the keyword ‘transplantation in China’. The search was not limited by any other criteria, but only the studies available for free – directly on PubMed or a linked source – were used. Other research studies on this topic were considered as well. The companies were identified through multiple methods. The first was an online search focused on medical companies and their products. The Bloomberg Service, used by stock brokers worldwide, was then used to identify the revenue of these companies in individual countries – if data were available – as well as their business presence in China. A search through the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was done in the same way. Also a search on the Chinese internet was done, and to obtain more results, a second online search was done as well. The results and discussion The extensive search has identified 14 countries with transplant tourists to China. The search for a similar studies or reports resulted in finding additional six countries. The companies identified by our research also amounted to 20. Eight of them are sourcing China with organ preservation products – of which one is just trying to enter the Chinese market, six with immunosuppressive drugs, four with transplant diagnostics, one with medical robots which Chinese doctors use for transplantation as well, and another one trying to enter the Chinese market with a consumable-type product also related to transplantation. The conclusion The question of the ethicality of transplant tourism may be very pressing, since as the research shows, just the sheer amount of participating countries, sourcing transplant tourists to another one, amounts to 20. The identified companies are facing risks due to the nature of transplantation business in China, as officially executed prisoners are used as sources, and widely cited pieces of evidence point out to illegal organ harvesting. Similar risks and ethical questions are also relevant to the countries sourcing the transplant tourists to China.

Keywords: China, illegal organ harvesting, transplant tourism, organ harvesting technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Sohrab Donyavi

Abstract:

The global construction market is experiencing significant shifts, particularly for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), driven by the dual imperatives of technological advancement and sustainability. MSMEs play a crucial role in the construction industry, often being the backbone of economic development and fostering entrepreneurial skills. However, their dominance has also led to industry fragmentation and challenges such as technological lag and declining profit margins, which threaten their global competitiveness. This paper explores the integration of technology and sustainability in reshaping the paradigms for MSMEs in the construction sector. The adoption of advanced technologies, such as building information modeling (BIM) and AI, are pivotal for promoting sustainable construction practices. These tools enable MSMEs to design and construct environmentally responsible buildings, thereby contributing to the industry's sustainability goals. The research highlights that achieving sustainability in construction involves significant efforts in conservation, recycling, and the development of new materials and technologies. This approach aligns with the broader goal of integrating economic, environmental, and social aims into firm objectives to create long-term value while ensuring the protection of natural resources for future generations. Critical factors for implementing sustainable oriented innovation (SOI) practices in MSMEs include top management support, government initiatives, and financial resources. These factors are essential for fostering an environment conducive to innovation and sustainability. Furthermore, the empowerment of MSMEs through improved governance, market-oriented programs, sustainable productivity growth, and access to financing is vital. In developing regions like Indonesia, these strategies are crucial for enabling MSMEs to thrive in the face of globalization. The tendency of large firms to grow larger with the help of technology and globalization has led to the emergence of a high-technology oligopoly, posing a significant challenge to traditional construction practices. This shift necessitates that MSMEs adapt by leveraging technology and embracing sustainable practices to remain competitive. The research underscores the importance of integrating technology and sustainability not only as a competitive strategy but also as a means to contribute to the global effort of environmental conservation and sustainable development. This paper concludes that the successful integration of technology and sustainability in MSMEs requires a multifaceted approach. It involves the adoption of advanced technological tools, strong support from top management, proactive government policies, and access to financial resources. By addressing these factors, MSMEs can overcome the challenges of industry fragmentation, technological lag, and declining profit margins. Ultimately, this integration will enable MSMEs to play a pivotal role in driving the construction industry towards a more sustainable and technologically advanced future. The findings and recommendations are based on a comprehensive case study utilizing semi-structured interviews, observations, questionnaires, and document reviews.

Keywords: MSMEs, construction, technology, sustainability, innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 38