Search results for: arrival time prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19837

Search results for: arrival time prediction

17737 Rule Insertion Technique for Dynamic Cell Structure Neural Network

Authors: Osama Elsarrar, Marjorie Darrah, Richard Devin

Abstract:

This paper discusses the idea of capturing an expert’s knowledge in the form of human understandable rules and then inserting these rules into a dynamic cell structure (DCS) neural network. The DCS is a form of self-organizing map that can be used for many purposes, including classification and prediction. This particular neural network is considered to be a topology preserving network that starts with no pre-structure, but assumes a structure once trained. The DCS has been used in mission and safety-critical applications, including adaptive flight control and health-monitoring in aerial vehicles. The approach is to insert expert knowledge into the DCS before training. Rules are translated into a pre-structure and then training data are presented. This idea has been demonstrated using the well-known Iris data set and it has been shown that inserting the pre-structure results in better accuracy with the same training.

Keywords: neural network, self-organizing map, rule extraction, rule insertion

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
17736 Shock Compressibility of Iron Alloys Calculated in the Framework of Quantum-Statistical Models

Authors: Maxim A. Kadatskiy, Konstantin V. Khishchenko

Abstract:

Iron alloys are widespread components in various types of structural materials which are exposed to intensive thermal and mechanical loads. Various quantum-statistical cell models with the approximation of self-consistent field can be used for the prediction of the behavior of these materials under extreme conditions. The application of these models is even more valid, the higher the temperature and the density of matter. Results of Hugoniot calculation for iron alloys in the framework of three quantum-statistical (the Thomas–Fermi, the Thomas–Fermi with quantum and exchange corrections and the Hartree–Fock–Slater) models are presented. Results of quantum-statistical calculations are compared with results from other reliable models and available experimental data. It is revealed a good agreement between results of calculation and experimental data for terra pascal pressures. Advantages and disadvantages of this approach are shown.

Keywords: alloy, Hugoniot, iron, terapascal pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
17735 Teaching How to Speak ‘Correct’ English in No Time: An Assessment of the ‘Success’ of Professor Higgins’ Motivation in George Bernard Shaw’s Pygmalion

Authors: Armel Mbon

Abstract:

This paper examines the ‘success’ of George Bernard Shaw's main character Professor Higgins' motivation in teaching Eliza Doolittle, a young Cockney flower girl, how to speak 'correct' English in no time in Pygmalion. Notice should be given that Shaw in whose writings, language issues feature prominently, does not believe there is such a thing as perfectly correct English, but believes in the varieties of spoken English as a source of its richness. Indeed, along with his fellow phonetician Colonel Pickering, Henry Higgins succeeds in teaching Eliza that he first judges unfairly, the dialect of the upper classes and Received Pronunciation, to facilitate her social advancement. So, after six months of rigorous learning, Eliza's speech and manners are transformed, and she is able to pass herself off as a lady. Such is the success of Professor Higgins’ motivation in linguistically transforming his learner in record time. On the other side, his motivation is unsuccessful since, by the end of the play, he cannot have Eliza he believes he has shaped to his so-called good image, for wife. So, this paper aims to show, in support of the psychological approach, that in motivation, feelings, pride and prejudice cannot be combined, and that one has not to pre-judge someone’s attitude based purely on how well they speak English.

Keywords: teaching, speak, in no time, success

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
17734 Axial, Bending Interaction Diagrams of Reinforced Concrete Columns Exposed to Chloride Attack

Authors: Rita Greco, Giuseppe Carlo Marano

Abstract:

Chloride induced reinforcement corrosion is widely accepted to be the most frequent mechanism causing premature degradation of reinforced concrete members, whose economic and social consequences are growing up continuously. Prevention of these phenomena has a great importance in structural design, and modern Codes and Standard impose prescriptions concerning design details and concrete mix proportion for structures exposed to different external aggressive conditions, grouped in environmental classes. This paper focuses on reinforced concrete columns load carrying capacity degradation over time due to chloride induced steel pitting corrosion. The structural element is considered to be exposed to marine environment and the effects of corrosion are described by the time degradation of the axial-bending interaction diagram. Because chlorides ingress and consequent pitting corrosion propagation are both time-dependent mechanisms, the study adopts a time-variant predictive approach to evaluate the residual strength of corroded reinforced concrete columns at different lifetimes. Corrosion initiation and propagation process is modelled by taking into account all the parameters, such as external environmental conditions, concrete mix proportion, concrete cover and so on, which influence the time evolution of the corrosion phenomenon and its effects on the residual strength of RC columns.

Keywords: pitting corrosion, strength deterioration, diffusion coefficient, surface chloride concentration, concrete structures, marine environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 321
17733 Analysis and Forecasting of Bitcoin Price Using Exogenous Data

Authors: J-C. Leneveu, A. Chereau, L. Mansart, T. Mesbah, M. Wyka

Abstract:

Extracting and interpreting information from Big Data represent a stake for years to come in several sectors such as finance. Currently, numerous methods are used (such as Technical Analysis) to try to understand and to anticipate market behavior, with mixed results because it still seems impossible to exactly predict a financial trend. The increase of available data on Internet and their diversity represent a great opportunity for the financial world. Indeed, it is possible, along with these standard financial data, to focus on exogenous data to take into account more macroeconomic factors. Coupling the interpretation of these data with standard methods could allow obtaining more precise trend predictions. In this paper, in order to observe the influence of exogenous data price independent of other usual effects occurring in classical markets, behaviors of Bitcoin users are introduced in a model reconstituting Bitcoin value, which is elaborated and tested for prediction purposes.

Keywords: big data, bitcoin, data mining, social network, financial trends, exogenous data, global economy, behavioral finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
17732 Exploratory Data Analysis of Passenger Movement on Delhi Urban Bus Route

Authors: Sourabh Jain, Sukhvir Singh Jain, Gaurav V. Jain

Abstract:

Intelligent Transportation System is an integrated application of communication, control and monitoring and display process technologies for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. In fact, the development of a country and the progress of its transportation system are complementary to each other. Urban traffic has been growing vigorously due to population growth as well as escalation of vehicle ownership causing congestion, delays, pollution, accidents, high-energy consumption and low productivity of resources. The development and management of urban transport in developing countries like India however, is at tryout stage with very few accumulations. Under the umbrella of ITS, urban corridor management strategy have proven to be one of the most successful system in accomplishing these objectives. The present study interprets and figures out the performance of the 27.4 km long Urban Bus route having six intersections, five flyovers and 29 bus stops that covers significant area of the city by causality analysis. Performance interpretations incorporate Passenger Boarding and Alighting, Dwell time, Distance between Bus Stops and Total trip time taken by bus on selected urban route.

Keywords: congestion, dwell time, passengers boarding alighting, travel time

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17731 Seismic Behavior of a Jumbo Container Crane in the Low Seismicity Zone Using Time-History Analyses

Authors: Huy Q. Tran, Bac V. Nguyen, Choonghyun Kang, Jungwon Huh

Abstract:

Jumbo container crane is an important part of port structures that needs to be designed properly, even when the port locates in low seismicity zone such as in Korea. In this paper, 30 artificial ground motions derived from the elastic response spectra of Korean Building Code (2005) are used for time history analysis. It is found that the uplift might not occur in this analysis when the crane locates in the low seismic zone. Therefore, a selection of a pinned or a gap element for base supporting has not much effect on the determination of the total base shear. The relationships between the total base shear and peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the relationships between the portal drift and the PGA are proposed in this study.

Keywords: jumbo container crane, portal drift, time history analysis, total base shear

Procedia PDF Downloads 189
17730 Introduction of Digital Radiology to Improve the Timeliness in Availability of Radiological Diagnostic Images for Trauma Care

Authors: Anuruddha Jagoda, Samiddhi Samarakoon, Anil Jasinghe

Abstract:

In an emergency department ‘where every second count for patient’s management’ timely availability of X- rays play a vital role in early diagnosis and management of patients. Trauma care centers rely heavily on timely radiologic imaging for patient care and radiology plays a crucial role in the emergency department (ED) operations. A research study was carried out to assess timeliness of availability of X-rays and total turnaround time at the Accident Service of National Hospital of Sri Lanka which is the premier trauma center in the country. Digital Radiology system was implemented as an intervention to improve the timeliness of availability of X-rays. Post-implementation assessment was carried out to assess the effectiveness of the intervention. Reduction in all three aspects of waiting times namely waiting for initial examination by doctors, waiting until X –ray is performed and waiting for image availability was observed after implementation of the intervention. However, the most significant improvement was seen in waiting time for image availability and reduction in time for image availability had indirect impact on reducing waiting time for initial examination by doctors and waiting until X –ray is performed. The most significant reduction in time for image availability was observed when performing 4-5 X rays with DR system. The least improvement in timeliness was seen in patients who are categorized as critical.

Keywords: emergency department, digital radilogy, timeliness, trauma care

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17729 Calcium Phosphate Cement/Gypsum Composite as Dental Pulp Capping

Authors: Jung-Feng Lin, Wei-Tang Chen, Chung-King Hsu, Chun-Pin Lin, Feng-Huei Lin

Abstract:

One of the objectives of operative dentistry is to maintain pulp health in compromised teeth. Mostly used methods for this purpose are direct pulp capping and pulpotomy, which consist of placement of biocompatible materials and bio-inductors on the exposed pulp tissue to preserve its health and stimulate repair by mineralized tissue formation. In this study, we developed a material (calcium phosphate cement (CPC)/gypsum composite) as the dental pulp capping material for shortening setting time and improving handling properties. We further discussed the influence of five different ratio of gypsum to CPC on HAP conversion, microstructure, setting time, weight loss, pH value, temperature difference, viscosity, mechanical properties, porosity, and biocompatibility.

Keywords: calcium phosphate cement, calcium sulphate hemihydrate, pulp capping, fast setting time

Procedia PDF Downloads 386
17728 Understanding the Excited State Dynamics of a Phase Transformable Photo-Active Metal-Organic Framework MIP 177 through Time-Resolved Infrared Spectroscopy

Authors: Aneek Kuila, Yaron Paz

Abstract:

MIP 177 LT and HT are two-phase transformable metal organic frameworks consisting of a Ti12O15 oxocluster and a tetracarboxylate ligand that exhibits robust chemical stability and improved photoactivity. LT to HT only shows the changes in dimensionality from 0D to 1D without any change in the overall chemical structure. In terms of chemical and photoactivity MIP 177 LT is found to perform better than the MIP 177HT. Step-scan Fourier transform absorption difference time-resolved spectroscopy has been used to collect mid-IR time-resolved infrared spectra of the transient electronic excited states of a nano-porous metal–organic framework MIP 177-LT and HT with 2.5 ns time resolution. Analyzing the time-resolved vibrational data after 355nm LASER excitation reveals the presence of the temporal changes of ν (O-Ti-O) of Ti-O metal cluster and ν (-COO) of the ligand concluding the fact that these moieties are the ultimate acceptors of the excited charges which are localized over those regions on the nanosecond timescale. A direct negative correlation between the differential absorbance (Δ Absorbance) reveals the charge transfer relation among these two moieties. A longer-lived transient signal up to 180ns for MIP 177 LT compared to the 100 ns of MIP 177 HT shows the extended lifetime of the reactive charges over the surface that exerts in their effectivity. An ultrafast change of bidentate to monodentate bridging in the -COO-Ti-O ligand-metal coordination environment was observed after the photoexcitation of MIP 177 LT which remains and lives with for seconds after photoexcitation is halted. This phenomenon is very unique to MIP 177 LT but not observed with HT. This in-situ change in the coordination denticity during the photoexcitation was not observed previously which can rationalize the reason behind the ability of MIP 177 LT to accumulate electrons during continuous photoexcitation leading to a superior photocatalytic activity.

Keywords: time resolved FTIR, metal organic framework, denticity, photoacatalysis

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17727 Exploring Time-Series Phosphoproteomic Datasets in the Context of Network Models

Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Jenny Vuong, Marcel Julliard, Sean O'Donoghue

Abstract:

Time-series data are useful for modelling as they can enable model-evaluation. However, when reconstructing models from phosphoproteomic data, often non-exact methods are utilised, as the knowledge regarding the network structure, such as, which kinases and phosphatases lead to the observed phosphorylation state, is incomplete. Thus, such reactions are often hypothesised, which gives rise to uncertainty. Here, we propose a framework, implemented via a web-based tool (as an extension to Minardo), which given time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, can generate κ models. The incompleteness and uncertainty in the generated model and reactions are clearly presented to the user via the visual method. Furthermore, we demonstrate, via a toy EGF signalling model, the use of algorithmic verification to verify κ models. Manually formulated requirements were evaluated with regards to the model, leading to the highlighting of the nodes causing unsatisfiability (i.e. error causing nodes). We aim to integrate such methods into our web-based tool and demonstrate how the identified erroneous nodes can be presented to the user via the visual method. Thus, in this research we present a framework, to enable a user to explore phosphorylation proteomic time-series data in the context of models. The observer can visualise which reactions in the model are highly uncertain, and which nodes cause incorrect simulation outputs. A tool such as this enables an end-user to determine the empirical analysis to perform, to reduce uncertainty in the presented model - thus enabling a better understanding of the underlying system.

Keywords: κ-models, model verification, time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, uncertainty and error visualisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 255
17726 Towards Printed Green Time-Temperature Indicator

Authors: Mariia Zhuldybina, Ahmed Moulay, Mirko Torres, Mike Rozel, Ngoc-Duc Trinh, Chloé Bois

Abstract:

To reduce the global waste of perishable goods, a solution for monitoring and traceability of their environmental conditions is needed. Temperature is the most controllable environmental parameter determining the kinetics of physical, chemical, and microbial spoilage in food products. To store the time-temperature information, time-temperature indicator (TTI) is a promising solution. Printed electronics (PE) has shown a great potential to produce customized electronic devices using flexible substrates and inks with different functionalities. We propose to fabricate a hybrid printed TTI using environmentally friendly materials. The real-time TTI profile can be stored and transmitted to the smartphone via Near Field Communication (NFC). To ensure environmental performance, Canadian Green Electronics NSERC Network is developing green materials for the ink formulation with different functionalities. In terms of substrate, paper-based electronics has gained the great interest for utilization in a wide area of electronic systems because of their low costs in setup and methodology, as well as their eco-friendly fabrication technologies. The main objective is to deliver a prototype of TTI using small-scale printed techniques under typical printing conditions. All sub-components of the smart labels, including a memristor, a battery, an antenna compatible with NFC protocol, and a circuit compatible with integration performed by an offsite supplier will be fully printed with flexography or flat-bed screen printing.

Keywords: NFC, printed electronics, time-temperature indicator, hybrid electronics

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
17725 Effect of Synthesis Parameters on Crystal Size and Perfection of Mordenite and Analcime

Authors: Zehui Du, Chaiwat Prapainainar, Paisan Kongkachuichay, Paweena Prapainainar

Abstract:

The aim of this work was to obtain small crystalline size and high crystallinity of mordenites and analcimes, by modifying the aging time, agitation, water content, crystallization temperature and crystallization time. Two different hydrothermal methods were studied. Both methods used Na2SiO3 as the silica source, NaAlO2 as the aluminum source, and NaOH as the alkali source. The first method used HMI as the template while the second method did not use the template. Mordenite crystals with spherical shape and bimodal in size of about 1 and 5 µm were obtained from the first method using conditions of 24 hr aging time, 170°C and 24 hr crystallization. Modernites with high crystallinity were formed using agitation system in the crystallization process. It was also found that the aging time of 2 hr and 24 hr did not much affect the formation of mordenite crystals. Analcime crystals were formed in spherical shape and facet on surface with the size between 13-15 µm by the second method using the conditions of 30 minutes aging time, 170°C and 24 hr crystallization without calcination. By increasing water content, the crystallization process was slowed down and resulted in smaller analcime crystals. Larger size of analcime crystals were observed when the samples were calcined at 300°C and 580°C. Higher calcination temperature led to higher crystal growth and resulted in larger crystal size. Finally, mordenite and analcime was used as fillers in zeolite/Nafion composite membrane to solve the fuel cross over problem in direct alcohol fuel cell.

Keywords: analcime, hydrothermal synthesis, mordenite, zeolite

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17724 Effects of Residence Time on Selective Absorption of Hydrogen Suphide

Authors: Dara Satyadileep, Abdallah S. Berrouk

Abstract:

Selective absorption of Hydrogen Sulphide (H2S) using methyldiethanol amine (MDEA) has become a point of interest as means of minimizing capital and operating costs of gas sweetening plants. This paper discusses the prominence of optimum design of column internals to best achieve H2S selectivity using MDEA. To this end, a kinetics-based process simulation model has been developed for a commercial gas sweetening unit. Trends of sweet gas H2S & CO2 contents as function of fraction active area (and hence residence time) have been explained through analysis of interdependent heat and mass transfer phenomena. Guidelines for column internals design in order to achieve desired degree of H2S selectivity are provided. Also the effectiveness of various operating conditions in achieving H2S selectivity for an industrial absorber with fixed internals is investigated.

Keywords: gas sweetening, H2S selectivity, methyldiethanol amine, process simulation, residence time

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17723 Partially-Averaged Navier-Stokes for Computations of Flow Around Three-Dimensional Ahmed Bodies

Authors: Maryam Mirzaei, Sinisa Krajnovic´

Abstract:

The paper reports a study about the prediction of flows around simplified vehicles using Partially-Averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS). Numerical simulations are performed for two simplified vehicles: A slanted-back Ahmed body at Re=30 000 and a square back Ahmed body at Re=300 000. A comparison of the resolved and modeled physical flow scales is made with corresponding LES and experimental data for a better understanding of the performance of the PANS model. The PANS model is compared for coarse and fine grid resolutions and it is indicated that even a coarse-grid PANS simulation is able to produce fairly close flow predictions to those from a well-resolved LES simulation. The results indicate the possibility of improvement of the predictions by employing a finer grid resolution.

Keywords: partially-averaged Navier-Stokes, large eddy simulation, PANS, LES, Ahmed body

Procedia PDF Downloads 600
17722 Web-Based Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Decision-Making: A Systematic Analysis

Authors: Serhat Tüzün, Tufan Demirel

Abstract:

Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been investigated by researchers and technologists for more than 35 years. This paper analyses the developments in the architecture and software of these systems, provides a systematic analysis for different Web-based DSS approaches and Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT), with the suggestion for future studies. Decision Support Systems literature begins with building model-oriented DSS in the late 1960s, theory developments in the 1970s, and the implementation of financial planning systems and Group DSS in the early and mid-80s. Then it documents the origins of Executive Information Systems, online analytic processing (OLAP) and Business Intelligence. The implementation of Web-based DSS occurred in the mid-1990s. With the beginning of the new millennia, intelligence is the main focus on DSS studies. Web-based technologies are having a major impact on design, development and implementation processes for all types of DSS. Web technologies are being utilized for the development of DSS tools by leading developers of decision support technologies. Major companies are encouraging its customers to port their DSS applications, such as data mining, customer relationship management (CRM) and OLAP systems, to a web-based environment. Similarly, real-time data fed from manufacturing plants are now helping floor managers make decisions regarding production adjustment to ensure that high-quality products are produced and delivered. Web-based DSS are being employed by organizations as decision aids for employees as well as customers. A common usage of Web-based DSS has been to assist customers configure product and service according to their needs. These systems allow individual customers to design their own products by choosing from a menu of attributes, components, prices and delivery options. The Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT) domain is a fast growing area of research that integrates various aspects of computer science and information systems. This includes intelligent systems, intelligent technology, intelligent agents, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neural networks, machine learning, knowledge discovery, computational intelligence, data science, big data analytics, inference engines, recommender systems or engines, and a variety of related disciplines. Innovative applications that emerge using IDT often have a significant impact on decision-making processes in government, industry, business, and academia in general. This is particularly pronounced in finance, accounting, healthcare, computer networks, real-time safety monitoring and crisis response systems. Similarly, IDT is commonly used in military decision-making systems, security, marketing, stock market prediction, and robotics. Even though lots of research studies have been conducted on Decision Support Systems, a systematic analysis on the subject is still missing. Because of this necessity, this paper has been prepared to search recent articles about the DSS. The literature has been deeply reviewed and by classifying previous studies according to their preferences, taxonomy for DSS has been prepared. With the aid of the taxonomic review and the recent developments over the subject, this study aims to analyze the future trends in decision support systems.

Keywords: decision support systems, intelligent decision-making, systematic analysis, taxonomic review

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17721 Changes in Textural Properties of Zucchini Slices with Deep-Fat-Frying

Authors: E. Karacabey, Ş. G. Özçelik, M. S. Turan, C. Baltacıoğlu, E. Küçüköner

Abstract:

Changes in textural properties of zucchini slices under effects of frying conditions were investigated. Frying time and temperature were interested process variables like slice thickness. Slice thickness was studied at three levels (2, 3, and 4 mm). Frying process was performed at two temperature levels (160 and 180 °C) and each for five different process time periods (1, 2, 3, 5, 8 and 10 min). As frying oil sunflower oil was used. Before frying zucchini slices were thermally processes in boiling water for 90 seconds to inactivate at least 80% of plant’s enzymes. After thermal process, zucchini slices were fried in an industrial fryer at specified temperature and time pairs. Fried slices were subjected to textural profile analysis (TPA) to determine textural properties. In this extent hardness, elasticity, cohesion, chewiness, firmness values of slices were figured out. Statistical analysis indicated significant variations in the studied textural properties with process conditions (p < 0.05). Hardness and firmness were determined for fresh and thermally processes zucchini slices to compare each others. Differences in hardness and firmness of fresh, thermally processed and fried slices were found to be significant (p < 0.05). This project (113R015) has been supported by TUBITAK.

Keywords: sunflower oil, hardness, firmness, slice thickness, frying temperature, frying time

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17720 Reliability of Cores Test Result at Elevated Temperature in Case of High Strength Concrete (HSC)

Authors: Waqas Ali

Abstract:

Concrete is broadly used as a structural material in the construction of buildings. When the concrete is exposed to elevated temperature, its strength evaluation is very necessary in the existing structure. In this study, the effect of temperature and the reliability of the core test has been evaluated. For this purpose, the cylindrical cores were extracted from High strength concrete (HSC) specimens that were exposed to the temperature ranging from 300 ℃ to 900 ℃ with a constant duration of 4 hr. This study compares the difference between the standard heated cylinders and the cores taken from them after curing of 90 days. The difference of cylindrical control and binary mix samples and extracted cores revealed that there is 12.19 and 12.38% difference at 300℃, while this difference was found to increase up to 12.89%, 13.03% at 500 ℃. Furthermore, this value is recorded as 12.99%, 13.57% and 14.40%, 14.38% at 700 ℃ and 900 ℃, respectively. A total of four equations were developed through a regression model for the prediction of the strength of concrete for both standard cylinders and extracted cores whose R square values were 0.9733, 0.9627 and 0.9473, 0.9452, respectively.

Keywords: high strength, temperature, core, reliability

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17719 AI-Driven Strategies for Sustainable Electronics Repair: A Case Study in Energy Efficiency

Authors: Badiy Elmabrouk, Abdelhamid Boujarif, Zhiguo Zeng, Stephane Borrel, Robert Heidsieck

Abstract:

In an era where sustainability is paramount, this paper introduces a machine learning-driven testing protocol to accurately predict diode failures, merging reliability engineering with failure physics to enhance repair operations efficiency. Our approach refines the burn-in process, significantly curtailing its duration, which not only conserves energy but also elevates productivity and mitigates component wear. A case study from GE HealthCare’s repair center vividly demonstrates the method’s effectiveness, recording a high prediction of diode failures and a substantial decrease in energy consumption that translates to an annual reduction of 6.5 Tons of CO2 emissions. This advancement sets a benchmark for environmentally conscious practices in the electronics repair sector.

Keywords: maintenance, burn-in, failure physics, reliability testing

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17718 Geographic Legacies for Modern Day Disease Research: Autism Spectrum Disorder as a Case-Control Study

Authors: Rebecca Richards Steed, James Van Derslice, Ken Smith, Richard Medina, Amanda Bakian

Abstract:

Elucidating gene-environment interactions for heritable disease outcomes is an emerging area of disease research, with genetic studies informing hypotheses for environment and gene interactions underlying some of the most confounding diseases of our time, like autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Geography has thus far played a key role in identifying environmental factors contributing to disease, but its use can be broadened to include genetic and environmental factors that have a synergistic effect on disease. Through the use of family pedigrees and disease outcomes with life-course residential histories, space-time clustering of generations at critical developmental windows can provide further understanding of (1) environmental factors that contribute to disease patterns in families, (2) susceptible critical windows of development most impacted by environment, (3) and that are most likely to lead to an ASD diagnosis. This paper introduces a retrospective case-control study that utilizes pedigree data, health data, and residential life-course location points to find space-time clustering of ancestors with a grandchild/child with a clinical diagnosis of ASD. Finding space-time clusters of ancestors at critical developmental windows serves as a proxy for shared environmental exposures. The authors refer to geographic life-course exposures as geographic legacies. Identifying space-time clusters of ancestors creates a bridge for researching exposures of past generations that may impact modern-day progeny health. Results from the space-time cluster analysis show multiple clusters for the maternal and paternal pedigrees. The paternal grandparent pedigree resulted in the most space-time clustering for birth and childhood developmental windows. No statistically significant clustering was found for adolescent years. These results will be further studied to identify the specific share of space-time environmental exposures. In conclusion, this study has found significant space-time clusters of parents, and grandparents for both maternal and paternal lineage. These results will be used to identify what environmental exposures have been shared with family members at critical developmental windows of time, and additional analysis will be applied.

Keywords: family pedigree, environmental exposure, geographic legacy, medical geography, transgenerational inheritance

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17717 Testing of Infill Walls with Joint Reinforcement Subjected to in Plane Lateral Load

Authors: J. Martin Leal-Graciano, Juan J. Pérez-Gavilán, A. Reyes-Salazar, J. H. Castorena, J. L. Rivera-Salas

Abstract:

The experimental results about the global behavior of twelve 1:2 scaled reinforced concrete frame subject to in-plane lateral load are presented. The main objective was to generate experimental evidence about the use of steel bars within mortar bed-joints as shear reinforcement in infill walls. Similar to the Canadian and New Zealand standards, the Mexican code includes specifications for this type of reinforcement. However, these specifications were obtained through experimental studies of load-bearing walls, mainly confined walls. Little information is found in the existing literature about the effects of joint reinforcement on the seismic behavior of infill masonry walls. Consequently, the Mexican code establishes the same equations to estimate the contribution of joint reinforcement for both confined walls and infill walls. A confined masonry construction and a reinforced concrete frame infilled with masonry walls have similar appearances. However, substantial differences exist between these two construction systems, which are mainly related to the sequence of construction and to how these structures support vertical and lateral loads. To achieve the objective established, ten reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls were built and tested in pairs, having both specimens in the pair identical characteristics except that one of them included joint reinforcement. The variables between pairs were the type of units, the size of the columns of the frame and the aspect ratio of the wall. All cases included tie-columns and tie-beams on the perimeter of the wall to anchor the joint reinforcement. Also, two bare frame with identical characteristic to the infilled frames were tested. The purpose was to investigate the effects of the infill wall on the behavior of the system to in-plane lateral load. In addition, the experimental results were compared with the prediction of the Mexican code. All the specimens were tested in cantilever under reversible cyclic lateral load. To simulate gravity load, constant vertical load was applied on the top of the columns. The results indicate that the contribution of the joint reinforcement to lateral strength depends on the size of the columns of the frame. Larger size columns produce a failure mode that is predominantly a sliding mode. Sliding inhibits the production of new inclined cracks, which are necessary to activate (deform) the joint reinforcement. Regarding the effects of joint reinforcement in the performance of confined masonry walls, many facts were confirmed for infill walls: this type of reinforcement increases the lateral strength of the wall, produces a more distributed cracking and reduces the width of the cracks. Moreover, it reduces the ductility demand of the system at maximum strength. The prediction of the lateral strength provided by the Mexican code is property in some cases; however, the effect of the size of the columns on the contribution of joint reinforcement needs to be better understood.

Keywords: experimental study, Infill wall, Infilled frame, masonry wall

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17716 Development and Evaluation of Gastro Retentive Floating Tablets of Ayurvedic Vati Formulation

Authors: Imran Khan Pathan, Anil Bhandari, Peeyush K. Sharma, Rakesh K. Patel, Suresh Purohit

Abstract:

Floating tablets of Marichyadi Vati were developed with an aim to prolong its gastric residence time and increase the bioavailability of drug. Rapid gastrointestinal transit could result in incomplete drug release from the drug delivery system above the absorption zone leading to diminished efficacy of the administered dose. The tablets were prepared by wet granulation technique, using HPMC E50 LV act as Matrixing agent, Carbopol as floating enhancer, microcrystalline cellulose as binder, sodium bi carbonate as effervescent agent with other excipients. The simplex lattice design was used for selection of variables for tablets formulation. Formulation was optimized on the basis of floating time and in vitro drug release. The results showed that the floating lag time for optimized formulation was found to be 61 second with about 97.32 % of total drug release within 3 hours. The in vitro release profiles of drug from the formulation could be best expressed zero order with highest linearity r2 = 0.9943. It was concluded that the gastroretentive drug delivery system can be developed for Marichyadi Vati containing piperine to increase the residence time of the drug in the stomach and thereby increasing bioavailability.

Keywords: piperine, Marichyadi Vati, gastroretentive drug delivery, floating tablet

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17715 Attenuation Scale Calibration of an Optical Time Domain Reflectometer

Authors: Osama Terra, Hatem Hussein

Abstract:

Calibration of Optical Time Domain Reflectometer (OTDR) is crucial for the accurate determination of loss budget for long optical fiber links. In this paper, the calibration of the attenuation scale of an OTDR using two different techniques is discussed and implemented. The first technique is the external modulation method (EM). A setup is proposed to calibrate an OTDR over a dynamic range of around 15 dB based on the EM method. Afterwards, the OTDR is calibrated using two standard reference fibers (SRF). Both SRF are calibrated using cut-back technique; one of them is calibrated at our home institute (the National Institute of Standards – NIS) while the other at the National Physical Laboratory (NPL) of the United Kingdom to confirm our results. In addition, the parameters contributing the calibration uncertainty are thoroughly investigated. Although the EM method has several advantages over the SRF method, the uncertainties in the SRF method is found to surpass that of the EM method.

Keywords: optical time domain reflectometer, fiber attenuation measurement, OTDR calibration, external source method

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17714 Insights into Particle Dispersion, Agglomeration and Deposition in Turbulent Channel Flow

Authors: Mohammad Afkhami, Ali Hassanpour, Michael Fairweather

Abstract:

The work described in this paper was undertaken to gain insight into fundamental aspects of turbulent gas-particle flows with relevance to processes employed in a wide range of applications, such as oil and gas flow assurance in pipes, powder dispersion from dry powder inhalers, and particle resuspension in nuclear waste ponds, to name but a few. In particular, the influence of particle interaction and fluid phase behavior in turbulent flow on particle dispersion in a horizontal channel is investigated. The mathematical modeling technique used is based on the large eddy simulation (LES) methodology embodied in the commercial CFD code FLUENT, with flow solutions provided by this approach coupled to a second commercial code, EDEM, based on the discrete element method (DEM) which is used for the prediction of particle motion and interaction. The results generated by LES for the fluid phase have been validated against direct numerical simulations (DNS) for three different channel flows with shear Reynolds numbers, Reτ = 150, 300 and 590. Overall, the LES shows good agreement, with mean velocities and normal and shear stresses matching those of the DNS in both magnitude and position. The research work has focused on the prediction of those conditions favoring particle aggregation and deposition within turbulent flows. Simulations have been carried out to investigate the effects of particle size, density and concentration on particle agglomeration. Furthermore, particles with different surface properties have been simulated in three channel flows with different levels of flow turbulence, achieved by increasing the Reynolds number of the flow. The simulations mimic the conditions of two-phase, fluid-solid flows frequently encountered in domestic, commercial and industrial applications, for example, air conditioning and refrigeration units, heat exchangers, oil and gas suction and pressure lines. The particle size, density, surface energy and volume fractions selected are 45.6, 102 and 150 µm, 250, 1000 and 2159 kg m-3, 50, 500, and 5000 mJ m-2 and 7.84 × 10-6, 2.8 × 10-5, and 1 × 10-4, respectively; such particle properties are associated with particles found in soil, as well as metals and oxides prevalent in turbulent bounded fluid-solid flows due to erosion and corrosion of inner pipe walls. It has been found that the turbulence structure of the flow dominates the motion of the particles, creating particle-particle interactions, with most of these interactions taking place at locations close to the channel walls and in regions of high turbulence where their agglomeration is aided both by the high levels of turbulence and the high concentration of particles. A positive relationship between particle surface energy, concentration, size and density, and agglomeration was observed. Moreover, the results derived for the three Reynolds numbers considered show that the rate of agglomeration is strongly influenced for high surface energy particles by, and increases with, the intensity of the flow turbulence. In contrast, for lower surface energy particles, the rate of agglomeration diminishes with an increase in flow turbulence intensity.

Keywords: agglomeration, channel flow, DEM, LES, turbulence

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17713 Fast Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting under High Meteorological Variability with a Multiple Equation Time Series Approach

Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

Abstract:

In 2016, Clements, Hurn, and Li proposed a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting, reporting an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% on an 11-years dataset for the Queensland region in Australia. We present an adaptation of their model to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province in Canada. More precisely, we take into account two additional meteorological variables — cloudiness and wind speed — on top of temperature, as well as the use of multiple meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. We also consider other minor improvements. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1:79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering

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17712 A Generalized Framework for Adaptive Machine Learning Deployments in Algorithmic Trading

Authors: Robert Caulk

Abstract:

A generalized framework for adaptive machine learning deployments in algorithmic trading is introduced, tested, and released as open-source code. The presented software aims to test the hypothesis that recent data contains enough information to form a probabilistically favorable short-term price prediction. Further, the framework contains various adaptive machine learning techniques that are geared toward generating profit during strong trends and minimizing losses during trend changes. Results demonstrate that this adaptive machine learning approach is capable of capturing trends and generating profit. The presentation also discusses the importance of defining the parameter space associated with the dynamic training data-set and using the parameter space to identify and remove outliers from prediction data points. Meanwhile, the generalized architecture enables common users to exploit the powerful machinery while focusing on high-level feature engineering and model testing. The presentation also highlights common strengths and weaknesses associated with the presented technique and presents a broad range of well-tested starting points for feature set construction, target setting, and statistical methods for enforcing risk management and maintaining probabilistically favorable entry and exit points. The presentation also describes the end-to-end data processing tools associated with FreqAI, including automatic data fetching, data aggregation, feature engineering, safe and robust data pre-processing, outlier detection, custom machine learning and statistical tools, data post-processing, and adaptive training backtest emulation, and deployment of adaptive training in live environments. Finally, the generalized user interface is also discussed in the presentation. Feature engineering is simplified so that users can seed their feature sets with common indicator libraries (e.g. TA-lib, pandas-ta). The user also feeds data expansion parameters to fill out a large feature set for the model, which can contain as many as 10,000+ features. The presentation describes the various object-oriented programming techniques employed to make FreqAI agnostic to third-party libraries and external data sources. In other words, the back-end is constructed in such a way that users can leverage a broad range of common regression libraries (Catboost, LightGBM, Sklearn, etc) as well as common Neural Network libraries (TensorFlow, PyTorch) without worrying about the logistical complexities associated with data handling and API interactions. The presentation finishes by drawing conclusions about the most important parameters associated with a live deployment of the adaptive learning framework and provides the road map for future development in FreqAI.

Keywords: machine learning, market trend detection, open-source, adaptive learning, parameter space exploration

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17711 Assessing Project Performance through Work Sampling and Earned Value Analysis

Authors: Shobha Ramalingam

Abstract:

The majority of the infrastructure projects are affected by time overrun, resulting in project delays and subsequently cost overruns. Time overrun may vary from a few months to as high as five or more years, placing the project viability at risk. One of the probable reasons noted in the literature for this outcome in projects is due to poor productivity. Researchers contend that productivity in construction has only marginally increased over the years. While studies in the literature have extensively focused on time and cost parameters in projects, there are limited studies that integrate time and cost with productivity to assess project performance. To this end, a study was conducted to understand the project delay factors concerning cost, time and productivity. A case-study approach was adopted to collect rich data from a nuclear power plant project site for two months through observation, interviews and document review. The data were analyzed using three different approaches for a comprehensive understanding. Foremost, a root-cause analysis was performed on the data using Ishikawa’s fish-bone diagram technique to identify the various factors impacting the delay concerning time. Based on it, a questionnaire was designed and circulated to concerned executives, including project engineers and contractors to determine the frequency of occurrence of the delay, which was then compiled and presented to the management for a possible solution to mitigate. Second, a productivity analysis was performed on select activities, including rebar bending and concreting through a time-motion study to analyze product performance. Third, data on cost of construction for three years allowed analyzing the cost performance using earned value management technique. All three techniques allowed to systematically and comprehensively identify the key factors that deter project performance and productivity loss in the construction of the nuclear power plant project. The findings showed that improper planning and coordination between multiple trades, concurrent operations, improper workforce and material management, fatigue due to overtime were some of the key factors that led to delays and poor productivity. The findings are expected to act as a stepping stone for further research and have implications for practitioners.

Keywords: earned value analysis, time performance, project costs, project delays, construction productivity

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17710 Importance of Road Infrastructure on the People Live in Afghanistan

Authors: Mursal Ibrahim Zada

Abstract:

Since 2001, the new Government of Afghanistan has put the improvement of transportation in rural area as one of the key issues for the development of the country. Since then, about 17,000 km of rural roads were planned to be constructed in the entire country. This thesis will assess the impact of rural road improvement on the development of rural communities and housing facilities. Specifically, this study aims to show that the improved road has leads to an improvement in the community, which in turn has a positive effect on the lives of rural people. To obtain this goal, a questionnaire survey was conducted in March 2015 to the residents of four different districts of Kabul province, Afghanistan, where the road projects were constructed in recent years. The collected data was analyzed using on a regression analysis considering different factors such as land price, waiting time at the station, travel time to the city, number of employed family members and so on. Three models are developed to demonstrate the relationship between different factors before and after the improvement of rural transportation. The results showed a significant change positively in the value of land price and housing facilities, travel time to the city, waiting time at the station, number of employed family members, fare per trip to the city, and number of trips to the city per month after the pavement of the road. The results indicated that the improvement of transportation has a significant impact on the improvement of the community in different parts, especially on the price of land and housing facility and travel time to the city.

Keywords: accessibility, Afghanistan, housing facility, rural area, land price

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17709 Impact of Digitized Monitoring & Evaluation System in Technical Vocational Education and Training

Authors: Abdul Ghani Rajput

Abstract:

Although monitoring and evaluation concept adopted by Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) organization to track the progress over the continuous interval of time based on planned interventions and subsequently, evaluating it for the impact, quality assurance and sustainability. In digital world, TVET providers are giving preference to have real time information to do monitoring of training activities. Identifying the benefits and challenges of digitized monitoring & evaluation real time information system has not been sufficiently tackled in this date. This research paper looks at the impact of digitized M&E in TVET sector by analyzing two case studies and describe the benefits and challenges of using digitized M&E system. Finally, digitized M&E have been identified as carriers for high potential of TVET sector.

Keywords: digitized M&E, innovation, quality assurance, TVET

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17708 A Multi-Release Software Reliability Growth Models Incorporating Imperfect Debugging and Change-Point under the Simulated Testing Environment and Software Release Time

Authors: Sujit Kumar Pradhan, Anil Kumar, Vijay Kumar

Abstract:

The testing process of the software during the software development time is a crucial step as it makes the software more efficient and dependable. To estimate software’s reliability through the mean value function, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) were developed under the assumption that operating and testing environments are the same. Practically, it is not true because when the software works in a natural field environment, the reliability of the software differs. This article discussed an SRGM comprising change-point and imperfect debugging in a simulated testing environment. Later on, we extended it in a multi-release direction. Initially, the software was released to the market with few features. According to the market’s demand, the software company upgraded the current version by adding new features as time passed. Therefore, we have proposed a generalized multi-release SRGM where change-point and imperfect debugging concepts have been addressed in a simulated testing environment. The failure-increasing rate concept has been adopted to determine the change point for each software release. Based on nine goodness-of-fit criteria, the proposed model is validated on two real datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model fits the datasets better. We have also discussed the optimal release time of the software through a cost model by assuming that the testing and debugging costs are time-dependent.

Keywords: software reliability growth models, non-homogeneous Poisson process, multi-release software, mean value function, change-point, environmental factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 74